February 18, 2015

On Scott Walker and College Degrees

It has come to the attention of most people these days that Scott Walker does not have a college degree. He quit the program before his last year to take a job with the American Red Cross. Now, there are many who are arguing this decision he made 25 years ago needs to be delved into more deeply. There are also those who are arguing that due to his lack of college degree he is unfit to be President of the United States. I have a few things to say to both of those types of people.

First, let’s talk about his lack of college degree. I’ve heard a number of people talking about the fact that they’ve never heard of someone leave college early to start a career. I have. I know of two people personally who were offered jobs while in college. One dropped out to take the job, the other did not. But, the offers were there, were tempting, and left one of them without a college diploma. Was it the wrong decision? That is for them to decide, not me. But, the point I’m trying to make is – people get offered jobs to entice them to leave college and get started right away. They have jobs that need filled immediately and someone who’s a known hard worker is great to fill that position. Why not offer them the job? And in some cases, depending on what your plans are in life – why not take it? For some, it’s a no brainer to take these jobs. For others, it’s a no brainer not to. For Walker, it appeared to be a choice he felt was the right one and he never felt inclined to go back and finish his degree. That’s fine for me and, frankly, I don’t care. It was his decision to make, not mine. His life and I respect his decision he made some 25 years ago. Does he need to offer an explanation? Unless what he did was illegal, not to me. (more…)

by @ 6:00 am. Filed under 2016, Opinion, Scott Walker

Poll Watch: Gravis Marketing/Townhall (R) Iowa 2016 Republican Caucus Survey

Gravis Marketing/Townhall (R) Iowa 2016 GOP Caucus Poll

  • Scott Walker 24% (10%)
  • Rand Paul 10% (8%)
  • Jeb Bush 10% (14%)
  • Chris Christie 9% (5%)
  • Marco Rubio 7% (4%)
  • Mike Huckabee 7% (9%)
  • Rick Santorum 6%
  • Ben Carson 5%
  • Ted Cruz 4% (7%)
  • Carly Fiorina 3%
  • Unsure 15% (18%)

Survey of 343 registered Republican voters was conducted February 12-13, 2015. Results from the poll conducted January 5-7, 2015 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 4:00 am. Filed under 2016, Iowa Caucuses, Poll Watch, Scott Walker

February 17, 2015

Poll Watch: NBC News/Marist South Carolina 2016 Presidential Survey

  • Jeb Bush (R) 48%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 45%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 46%
  • Scott Walker (R) 46%

Survey of 877 registered voters was conducted February 3-10, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 3.3 percentage points.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 2:43 pm. Filed under 2016, Hillary Clinton, Jeb Bush, Poll Watch, Scott Walker

Poll Watch: NBC News/Marist Iowa 2016 Presidential Survey

  • Hillary Clinton (D) 48% (46%)
  • Jeb Bush (R) 40% (42%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 49% (50%)
  • Scott Walker (R) 38% (37%)

Survey of 891 registered voters was conducted February 3-10, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 3.3 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted July 7-13, 2014 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 11:49 am. Filed under 2016, Hillary Clinton, Jeb Bush, Poll Watch, Scott Walker

Watch: NBC News/Marist Early State 2016 Democratic Primary/Caucus Surveys

NBC News/Marist Iowa 2016 Democratic Caucus Poll

  • Hillary Clinton 68% (70%)
  • Joe Biden 12% (20%)
  • Bernie Sanders 7%
  • Jim Webb 1%
  • Martin O’Malley 0%
  • Undecided 12% (10%)

Survey of 321 potential Democratic caucus-goers was conducted February 3-10, 2015.  The margin of error is +/- 5.5 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted July 7-13, 2014 are in parentheses.

NBC News/Marist New Hampshire 2016 Democratic Primary Poll

  • Hillary Clinton 69% (74%)
  • Bernie Sanders 13%
  • Joe Biden 8% (18%)
  • Jim Webb 2%
  • Martin O’Malley 0%
  • Undecided 7% (8%)

Survey of 309 potential Democratic primary voters was conducted February 3-10, 2015.  The margin of error is +/- 5.6 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted July 7-13, 2014 are in parentheses.

NBC News/Marist South Carolina 2016 Democratic Primary Poll

  • Hillary Clinton 65%
  • Joe Biden 20%
  • Bernie Sanders 3%
  • Martin O’Malley 2%
  • Jim Webb 2%
  • Undecided 8%

Survey of 352 potential Democratic primary voters was conducted February 3-10, 2015.  The margin of error is +/- 5.2 percentage points.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 4:00 am. Filed under 2016, Democrats, Hillary Clinton, Iowa Caucuses, New Hampshire Primary, Poll Watch

February 16, 2015

Poll Watch: Christopher Newport University Virginia 2016 Democratic Primary Survey

CNU Virginia 2016 Democratic Presidential Primary Poll

  • Hillary Clinton 65% (66%)
  • Jim Webb 10%
  • Joe Biden 8% (19%)
  • Elizabeth Warren 8% (7%) 
  • Deval Patrick 2%
  • Bernie Sanders 2% 
  • Andrew Cuomo 1%
  • Martin O’Malley 1%
  • Someone else 1%
  • Undecided 2% (9%)

Survey of registered Democrats and Democratic-leaning Independent voters was conducted January 30 – February 10, 2015. Results from the poll conducted February 23-28, 2014 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 6:05 pm. Filed under 2016, Hillary Clinton, Poll Watch, Republican Party

Nevada Might Actually Matter

Scott Conroy has an interesting article on RCP today, arguing that, with Mitt Romney out, Nevada might be important this cycle.

I read it shortly after looking through the NBC/Marist polls below that show three different leaders in the first three states. Though I am thoroughly skeptical of polls this far in advance of voting, I considered the off-chance that they might be right, and that Mike Huckabee might win Iowa, Jeb Bush New Hampshire, and Lindsey Graham South Carolina. In that unlikely scenario, Nevada might play a huge role as a tie-breaker (or logjam-breaker). Except:

Though it is far too early to put much weight into such surveys, a poll conducted by the group Citizens for Responsible Energy Solutions found a wide-open race among likely GOP caucus-goers with Scott Walker (18 percent), Jeb Bush (12 percent) and Rand Paul (9 percent) constituting the top three.

Oh great, four winners in four states!

by @ 12:05 pm. Filed under Jeb Bush, Lindsey Graham, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, Scott Walker, Uncategorized

Rick Perry Visits New Hampshire

If there was any doubt Rick Perry was serious about running 2016, his new video from Rick PAC showing his visit to New Hampshire should remove some of those doubts.

Will he be able to get over his 2012 campaign? Time will tell, but this is a well done, polished video.

by @ 8:59 am. Filed under 2016, New Hampshire Primary, Rick Perry

Poll Watch: NBC News/Marist Early State 2016 Republican Primary/Caucus Surveys

NBC News/Marist Iowa 2016 GOP Caucus Poll

  • Mike Huckabee 17%
  • Jeb Bush 16% (12%)
  • Scott Walker 15% (5%)
  • Chris Christie 9% (8%)
  • Rand Paul 7% (12%)
  • Marco Rubio 6% (7%)
  • Ben Carson 6%
  • Rick Santorum 5% (9%)
  • Rick Perry 4% (7%)
  • Ted Cruz 2% (7%)
  • Lindsey Graham 1%
  • Undecided 14% (20%)

Survey of 320 potential GOP caucus-goers was conducted February 3-10, 2015.  The margin of error is +/- 5.5 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted July 7-13, 2014 are in parentheses.

NBC News/Marist New Hampshire 2016 GOP Primary Poll

  • Jeb Bush 18% (10%)
  • Scott Walker 15% (6%)
  • Rand Paul 14% (14%)
  • Chris Christie 13% (13%)
  • Mike Huckabee 7%
  • Ben Carson 7%
  • Ted Cruz 6% (9%)
  • Marco Rubio 6% (7%)
  • Rick Perry 1% (5%)
  • Lindsey Graham 1%
  • Rick Santorum 1% (3%)
  • Undecided 13% (22%)

Survey of 381 potential GOP primary voters was conducted February 3-10, 2015.  The margin of error is +/- 5.0 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted July 7-13, 2014 are in parentheses.

NBC News/Marist South Carolina 2016 GOP Primary Poll

  • Lindsey Graham 17%
  • Jeb Bush 15%
  • Scott Walker 12%
  • Mike Huckabee 10%
  • Ben Carson 10%
  • Rand Paul 7%
  • Chris Christie 6%
  • Marco Rubio 4%
  • Rick Perry 4%
  • Rick Santorum 3%
  • Ted Cruz 1%
  • Undecided 11%

Survey of 450 potential GOP primary voters was conducted February 3-10, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 4.6 percentage points.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 4:00 am. Filed under 2016, Iowa Caucuses, Jeb Bush, Lindsey Graham, Mike Huckabee, Poll Watch, Republican Party

February 15, 2015

Poll Watch: Gravis Marketing (R) Kentucky 2015 Governor Survey

Gravis Marketing (R) Kentucky 2015 Governor Survey

  • Jack Conway (D) 40%
  • James Comer (R) 37%
  • Uncertain 23%
  • Jack Conway (D) 43%
  • Catherine Todd Bailey (R) 30%
  • Uncertain 27%

Survey conducted Jan. 5-6 poll among 608 registered voters. The poll carries a 4 percent margin of error

Inside the numbers:

Attorney General John W. “Jack” Conway beats both leading Republicans Agriculture Commissioner James R. Comer, former envoy to Latvia Ambassador Catherine Todd Bailey, real estate developer Hal Heiner and businessman Matt Bevin, said Doug Kaplan, the managing partner of Gravis Marketing, the Florida-based pollster that conducted the poll.

If Conway wins, it is a personal vindication for a candidate, who has survived an ethics scandal and the 2010 loss in the his run for the Senate against Republican Sen. Randal H. “Rand” Paul.

by @ 12:02 pm. Filed under 2015, Poll Watch

Poll Watch: Rasmussen President Obama Job Approval Survey

Rasmussen President Obama Job Approval Poll 

How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as president?

  • Strongly approve 25%
  • Somewhat approve 24%
  • Somewhat disapprove 10%
  • Strongly disapprove 39%

President Obama Job Approval

  • Approve 49%
  • Disapprove 49%

Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 500 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. To reach those who have abandoned traditional landline telephones, Rasmussen Reports uses an online survey tool to interview randomly selected participants from a demographically diverse panel. The margin of sampling error for the full sample of 1,500 Likely Voters is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

by @ 12:00 pm. Filed under 2016, Barack Obama, Poll Watch

February 14, 2015

Weekend Miscellany

Lots of stuff this week, so let’s get right to it.

 

Random Violence and Probabilities

Our president tells us that the recent killing of four Jews in Paris was random violence.

Given that the population of the city of Paris is about 2.3 million, and that (according to estimates I have seen) about 310,000 of those are Jewish – what is the statistical probability that four people chosen at random in Paris would all be Jewish?

The probability of choosing one person at random in Paris, and that person being Jewish, is about 13.5%. Going 4-for-4 is 13.5% x 13.5% x 13.5% x 13.5% = 0.03%.

Of course, if the choosing is done in a kosher deli, the odds probably increase.

 

Healthcare.gov Is Full of Ad-Trackers

Per Advertising Age, the federal and state insurance websites are rife with ad-tracking software.

People visiting Healthcare.gov, Colorado’s ConnectForHealthCO, California’s CoveredCA or NYStateofHealth lately might get more than information on health insurance plans: they might get ads on Facebook or just about anywhere else they’re traveling online, based on the fact that they visited the health sites.

In the wake of an Associated Press report revealing that the federal government’s Healthcare.gov site was exposing personal user data, that site along with 16 state healthcare sites still have lots of ad trackers installed from companies including Facebook, Twitter andGoogle’s Doubleclick.

Some of these ad-trackers are on the pages where visitors submit personal information. But don’t worry, it’s for your own good.

“One of the most cost-effective and best ways to reach the uninsured is through digital media and advertising,” stated Kevin Counihan, director and marketplace CEO at CMS. “To do this well, we have contracts with companies that help us to connect interested consumers to HealthCare.gov and continuously measure and improve site performance and our outreach efforts.” He went on to say the agency is evaluating additional actions to improve consumer privacy.

A first step might be being honest about it. Anybody remember the promises about the ‘most transparent administration ever’?

And what will you get if you visit one of these sites?

Simply expressing interest in health coverage and providing contact information to some state sites including CoverOregon, can result in a barrage of phone calls from health insurance brokers that receive those sales leads through the site.

 

Capitalist Plot of the Week

The Revolutionary Alliance of Men that Women find Unattractive (I wonder what the membership requirements are?) plans to have demonstrations in Tokyo on Valentine’s Day.

“The blood-soaked conspiracy of Valentine’s Day, driven by the oppressive chocolate capitalists, has arrived once again,” announced Kakuhido on its website.

“In order to create a brighter future, we call for solidarity among our unloved comrades so that we may demonstrate in resolute opposition to Valentine’s Day and the romantic industrial complex”, it added.

At this point in my reading, I figured this had to be a put-on. ‘Blood-soaked conspiracy’? ‘Romantic-Industrial complex’? C’mon.

But apparently they’re serious. The founder, it seems, turned to Marxism when his girlfriend dumped him.

Kakuhido was founded in 2006 by Katsuhiro Furusawa, who started reading the Communist manifesto after being dumped by his girlfriend at Christmas – and swiftly concluded that not being popular with the opposite sex is a class issue.

I like their slogan: “Flirting is Terrorism.” Yes, of course it is.

 

Hey, Honey, Scratch the Towels off the List – I’d Rather Have a Hi-Def TV

Also in keeping with the day, this highly romantic item: Best Buy has opened a bridal registry.

 

And More of the Same

A third Valentine’s/marriage item fits with the above two, but this one is really more of a follow-up to last week’s Miscellany items (there were two links) on East Asia’s demographics problems; the discussion, not surprisingly, quickly turned to the US birthrate, which turned to delayed marriage (though some felt that line of argument was missing the point). Perhaps it was, but it was still interesting.

Therefore, Weekend Miscellany, ever seeking to serve our small but loyal band of followers, offers this.

2014_20to49_nevermarried1

The not-surprisingly high rate of non-marriage among younger women distorts the Y-axis. Eliminating the under-25s makes clearer the remarkable increase among older groups.

2014_25to49_nevermarried
The author’s conclusion:

It is interesting that White women in their 40s have so far escaped much of the change.  My guess is this reflects some combination of delayed reaction as the change cascades through the age brackets, and increased willingness to settle.

Either way, women marrying after forty means their fertility window is all but closed by the time they walk down the aisle.  It still counts as a marriage, but from a societal point of view it is something very different than a woman marrying in her 20s or even early 30s.  This is also not what young marriage delaying women are telling us they have in mind.  They are hoping to delay marriage as long as possible while still marrying in time to have children.

Even the 17% of White women who haven’t married by their late thirties have for the most part missed the mark.

 

Ukraine Ceasefire

The big international news this week has been the ceasefire agreement in the Ukraine. From a Foreign Policy newsletter:

The leaders of Russia, Ukraine, Germany, and France reached an agreement aimed at ending the fighting in Ukraine, following talks in Belarus. The deal, which was also signed by pro-Russian rebels in eastern Ukraine, will go into force next week.

There are a number of issues that remain to be settled, but many of the specifics are in place. A ceasefire is set to begin on February 15. Two days later, the forces will begin withdrawing heavy weapons. All prisoners will be released and there will be judicial amnesty for those involved in fighting. Ukraine also agreed to pursue constitutional reform that would enable decentralization for rebel regions by the end of the year. The deal is very similar to the ceasefire agreement from September, which unraveled soon after it was signed.

We’ll see.

 

Follow-up on Erdogan’s Delusions

We mentioned several Miscellanies ago that the President of Turkey apparently believes that the New World was discovered by Turks long before Columbus. He’s now acting on that idea.

Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan has proposed to Cuba the construction of a mosque on the Caribbean island during a visit to Havana, pushing ahead with a plan apparently inspired by his belief that Muslims discovered the Americas.

 

Best Political Scandals: Oregon?

Usually, Americans can depend on Illinois and Washington, DC for most of their political amusement. Louisiana, dating back to Huey Long, has often come through for us as well, but with Edwin Edwards finally departed from the scene, things there may be a bit quieter. Recently, we have had to look northward and import our chuckles from Toronto.

One hardly expects Oregon to fill in the gap until Illinois (inevitably) comes through for us again, but they’ve actually come up with something quite good.

Gov. John Kitzhaber decided to resign Tuesday but then changed his mind, insisting Wednesday afternoon that he’s staying, The Oregonian/OregonLive has learned.

Well done, Beaver State!

Update: This was written before Kitzhaber reversed his reversal, and resigned on Friday, but that only adds to the fun.

 

Quickly Noted

Will the Japanese Navy Patrol the South China Sea? China doesn’t like the idea.

First Iowa Campaign HQ Opens. Scott Walker is first, though of course it’s not officially a campaign office.

I Guess the Science Isn’t Quite So Settled. FDA considering new findings that high-cholestorol foods may not be all that bad.

The Wages of Historical Illiteracy. Young people don’t remember measles, mumps, or polio, therefore they fall for anti-vax inanities.

The Biggest Government Credit Shortfall Ever. Student debt repayments fell short by $22bil last year, and that may be just the start.

by @ 8:00 am. Filed under Uncategorized

February 13, 2015

Poll Watch: Christopher Newport University Virginia 2016 Presidential Survey

  • Hillary Clinton (D) 48% (51%)
  • Jeb Bush (R) 43% (38%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 49% (43%)
  • Chris Christie (R) 42% (41%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 51% (48%)
  • Marco Rubio (R) 42% (40%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 52% (52%)
  • Paul Ryan (R) 42% (37%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 52% (52%)
  • Mike Huckabee (R) 42% (37%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 52% (47%)
  • Rand Paul (R) 42% (40%)

Survey of 794 registered voters was conducted January 30 – February 10, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 3.6 percentage points.  Party ID: 25% (27%) Democrat; 21% (21%) Republican; 51% (50%) Independent. Results from the poll conducted February 23-28, 2014 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 2:10 pm. Filed under 2016, Democrats, Hillary Clinton, Poll Watch, Republican Party

Poll Watch: Christopher Newport University Virginia 2016 Republican Primary Survey

CNU Virginia 2016 GOP Presidential Primary Poll

  • Jeb Bush 21% (18%)
  • Scott Walker 16% (3%) 
  • Mike Huckabee 10% (13%)
  • Chris Christie 10% (19%)
  • Ben Carson 9%
  • Rand Paul 6% (7%)
  • Marco Rubio 6% (4%)
  • Paul Ryan 5% (13%)
  • Ted Cruz 3% (9%
  • John Kasich 3%
  • Bobby Jindal 2% 
  • Rick Perry 1%
  • Mike Pence 1%
  • Rob Portman 1%
  • Rick Santorum 1% 
  • Undecided 4% (13%)

Survey of registered Republican and GOP-leaning Independent voters was conducted January 30 – February 10, 2015. Results from the poll conducted February 23-28, 2014 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 11:00 am. Filed under 2016, Jeb Bush, Poll Watch, Republican Party

Poll Watch: Landslide Communications California 2016 Republican Primary Survey

Landslide Communications California 2016 Republican Primary Survey

  • Scott Walker 20.0%
  • BenCarson 10.7%
  • Jeb Bush 10.5%
  • Mike Huckabee 7.3%
  • Chris Christie 5.8%
  • Marco Rubio 5.2%
  • Rand Paul 4.7%
  • Ted Cruz 4.0%
  • Rick Perry 3.7%
  • Carly Fiorina 3.2%
  • Rick Santorum 1.8%
  • Bobby Jindal 1.5%
  • Lindsey Graham 0.8%
  • John Kasich 0.6%

The sample size was 600 interviews. The margin of error is estimated to be +/- 4.00%, at the 95% confidence level, statewide.

by @ 10:00 am. Filed under 2016, Poll Watch, Republican Party, Scott Walker

February 12, 2015

Philadelphia Awarded 2016 Democratic Convention

MSNBC has the story:

DNC Chairwoman Debbie Wasserman Schultz on Thursday announced Philadelphia will host the Democratic National Convention in 2016.

“In addition to their commitment to a seamless and safe convention, Philadelphia’s deep rooted place in American history provides a perfect setting for this special gathering. I cannot wait to join Democrats across the country to celebrate our shared values, lay out a Democratic vision for the future, and support our nominee,” Wasserman Schultz said in a statement.

Philadelphia Mayor Michael A. Nutter said the city is “excited and honored” to be selected. “We’re all delighted to make history again, here in the City of Brotherly Love and Sisterly Affection,” Nutter said.

While Republicans announced months ago that their 2016 nominating convention will be held in Cleveland, Ohio, Democrats took longer choosing between three finalist cities – New York City, Philadelphia, and Columbus, Ohio. The convention will be held the week of July 25, 2016, immediately after the Republican event.

Full story here.

by @ 6:06 pm. Filed under 2016, Conventions, Democrats

Poll Watch: Saint Anselm College/Bloomberg Politics New Hampshire 2016 Presidential Survey

St. Anselm College/Bloomberg Politics New Hampshire 2016 Presidential Poll

  • Hillary Clinton 48% (48%)
  • Rand Paul 41% (41%)
  • Not sure 11% (10%)  
  • Hillary Clinton 50%
  • Scott Walker 37%
  • Not sure 14%
  • Hillary Clinton 50% (47%)
  • Jeb Bush 36% (39%)
  • Not sure 14% (14%)

Survey of 503 likely voters was conducted January 31 – February 5, 2015 by Purple Insights.  The margin of error is +/- 4.4 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted November 12-18, 2014 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 10:47 am. Filed under 2016, Hillary Clinton, Jeb Bush, Poll Watch, Rand Paul, Scott Walker

Poll Watch: Monmouth University New Jersey Survey on Governor Chris Christie

Monmouth University NJ Poll on Gov. Chris Christie

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Chris Christie is doing as governor?

  • Approve 47% (46%) {49%} [51%] (49%) {58%} [65%] (63%) {65%} [70%] (69%) {55%} [53%] (50%) {55%} [55%] (50%) {46%} [49%] (44%) {45%} [42%] (31%)
  • Disapprove 46% (42%) {43%} [43%] (46%) {35%} [27%] (24%) {26%} [16%] (22%) {36%} [35%] (38%) {37%} [37%] (41%) {49%} [41%] (40%) {43%} [44%] (15%)

Among Democrats

  • Approve 39% (35%) {37%} [34%] (31%) {38%} [47%] (47%) {52%} [58%] (57%) {30%} [26%] (33%) {35%} [32%] (36%) {22%} [27%] (22%) {23%} [19%] (21%)
  • Disapprove 55% (53%) {54%} [59%] (64%) {52%} [45%] (37%) {39%} [26%] (30%) {57%} [60%] (55%) {56%} [59%] (55%) {72%} [61%] (58%) {65%} [68%] (24%)
Among Republicans
  • Approve 70% (68%) {76%} [84%] (77%) {89%} [85%] (89%) {86%} [88%] (85%) {90%} [82%] (74%) {79%} [84%] (78%) {75%} [80%] (71%) {80%} [65%] (52%)
  • Disapprove 24% (22%) {23%} [14%] (20%) {7%} [9%] (7%) {10%} [7%] (7%) {4%} [10%] (18%) {16%} [12%] (15%) {24%} [14%] (22%) {14%} [19%] (4%)
Among Independents
  • Approve 47% (45%) {50%} [55%] (54%) {62%} [73%] (64%) {64%} [71%] (68%) {55%} [57%] (54%) {55%} [58%](44%) {53%} [49%] (49%) {45%} [49%] (35%)
  • Disapprove 43% (35%) {39%} [36%] (38%) {30%} [17%] (21%) {24%} [14%] (20%) {34%} [31%] (28%) {34%} [34%] (46%{41%} [38%] (31%) {41%} [34%] (13%)

Among Men 

  • Approve 49% (51%) {53%} [56%] (55%) {62%} [70%] (62%) {61%} [69%] (68%) {61%} [58%] (59%) {56%} [54%] (52%)
  • Disapprove 43% (36%) {38%} [38%] (41%) {28%} [20%] (23%) {27%} [18%] (19%) {31%} [32%] (28%) {33%} [36%] (37%)

Among Women

  • Approve 47% (41%) {47%} [47%] (46%) {57%} [61%] (61%) {65%} [70%] (66%) {47%} [45%] (43%) {48%} [53%] (45%)
  • Disapprove 44% (42%) {45%} [42%] (47%) {36%} [30%] (25%) {26%} [16%] (23%) {40%} [40%] (42%) {42%} [40%] (48%)
Survey of 712 registered voters was conducted January 30 – February 2, 2015.  The margin of error is +/- 3.7 percentage points.  Party ID: 38% (36%) {37%} [38%] (38%) {38%} [37%] (37%) {39%} [37%] (37%) {35%} [34%] (37%) {36%} [34%] (35%) {35%} [35%] (35%) {38%} [40%] Democrat; 21% (21%) {21%} [21%] (22%) {22%} [24%] (23%) {23%} [23%] (23%) {24%} [23%] (23%) {23%} [20%] (22%) {21%} [22%] (22%) {22%} [22%] Republican; 41% (43%) {42%} [41%] (40%) {40%} [39%] (40%) {38%} [40%] (40%) {41%} [43%] (40%) {41%} [46%] (43%) {44%} [43%] (43%) {40%} [38%] Independent.  Results from the poll conducted September 17-21, 2014 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted June 25-29, 2014 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 30 – April 1, 2014 are in square brackets. February 19-23, 2014 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted January 10-12, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted December 4-8, 2013 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted September 6-10, 2013 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted April 11-14, 2013 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted February 6-10, 2013 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted November 29 – December 2, 2012 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted September 19-23, 2012 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted July 18-22, 2012 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted April 11-15, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted January 31 – February 4, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted October 5-9, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 3-8, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted May 12-16, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 2-7, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 15-19, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted July 7-11, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 7-11, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 27-31, 2010 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 4:00 am. Filed under 2016, Chris Christie, Poll Watch

February 11, 2015

New Poll Shows Hillary’s Vulnerability to Elizabeth Warren

Second verse same as the first for Hillary come 2016? A new poll commissioned by YouGov for MoveOn.org’s PAC shows that Democratic primary/caucus voters are highly receptive to Elizabeth Warren’s candidacy when her positions/bio are compare with Hillary Clinton’s, so much so that Warren pulls ahead of Clinton in Iowa and New Hampshire after these voters made aware of the differences between the two contenders:

To know Elizabeth Warren is to want her to run for president, according to a YouGov survey of likely Democratic Iowa caucus goers and New Hampshire primary voters recently conducted on behalf of the Run Warren Run campaign.

The results show that, after likely caucus goers and primary voters learn about Elizabeth Warren’s biography and issue positions, not only do a stunning 79% say they want her to run, but, in both states, Warren ends up leading all other potential Democratic candidates in a head-to-head ballot question.

The full press release is here.

Hat-tip: Joe Hanna

Poll Watch: Gravis Marketing/Howie Carr (R) New Hampshire 2016 Democratic Primary Survey

Gravis Marketing/Howie Carr (R) New Hampshire 2016 Democratic Primary Poll

  • Hillary Clinton 44%
  • Elizabeth Warren 25%
  • Bernie Sanders 13%
  • Joe Biden 5%
  • Jim Webb 1%
  • Martin O’Malley 1%
  • Unsure 10%  

Survey of 384 registered Democratic primary voters was conducted February 2-3, 2015.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 10:17 am. Filed under 2016, Democrats, Hillary Clinton, Poll Watch

Poll Watch: PPP (D) 2016 National Presidential Survey

PPP (D) 2016 National Presidential Poll

  • Hillary Clinton (D) 45%
  • Scott Walker (R) 42%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 45% (47%) {45%} [48%] (48%) {44%} {49%} [51%]
  • Jeb Bush (R) 41% (44%) {43%} [43%] (39%) {41%} {43%} [37%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 45% (46%) {45%} [42%] (44%) {43%} [47%] (46%) {46%} [44%]
  • Chris Christie (R) 40% (42%) {43%} [45%] (39%) {42%} [44%] (42%) {41%} [42%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 46% (47%) {46%} [48%] (49%) {47%} [51%] (49%)
  • Rand Paul (R) 39% (42%) {43%} [43%] (37%) {39%} [41%] (43%)

Among Men

  • Scott Walker (R) 48%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 43%
  • Jeb Bush (R) 46% (47%) {51%} [50%] (45%) {46%} {46%}[39%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 39% (43%) {37%} [39%] (43%) {38%} {44%} [47%]
  • Chris Christie (R) 43% (49%) {51%} [56%] (45%) {46%} [47%] (46%) {46%} [44%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 42% (39%) {38%} [32%] (39%) {36%} [43%] (41%) {38%} [37%]
  • Rand Paul (R) 43% (48%) {52%} [52%] (43%) {44%} [46%] (48%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 41% (43%) {38%} [40%] (44%) {41%}[47%] (45%)

Among Women

  • Hillary Clinton (D) 46%
  • Scott Walker (R) 36%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 51% (51%) {53%} [56%] (52%) {51%} {54%} [54%]
  • Jeb Bush (R) 37% (41%) {36%} [37%] (33%) {36%} {39%} [36%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 48% (52%) {51%} [51%] (49%) {50%} [50%] (51%) {53%} [52%]
  • Chris Christie (R) 37% (36%) {36%} [36%] (34%) {37%} [41%] (37%) {37%} [39%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 50% (50%) {53%} [55%] (55%) {52%} [55%] (54%)
  • Rand Paul (R) 36% (37%) {35%} [34%] (32%) {34%} [37%] (37%)

National survey of 861 registered voters was conducted January 20-21, 2015. Party ID: 39% (41%) {39%} [40%] (38%) {41%} [41%] (38%) {42%} [43%] (44%) Democrat; 37% (34%) {36%} [34%] (34%) {32%} [33%] (34%) {33%} [34%] (32%) Republican; 23% (26%) {26%} [26%] (28%) {26%} [26%] (28%) {25%} [23%] (24%) Independent/Other.  Results from the poll conducted March 6-9, 2014 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted January 23-26, 2014 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted December 12-15, 2013 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted October 29-31, 2013 are in parentheses.   Results from the poll conducted July 19-21, 2013 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 6-9, 2013 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 27-30, 2013 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted January 31 – February 3, 2013 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted January 3-6, 2013 are in square brackets.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 4:00 am. Filed under 2016, Chris Christie, Hillary Clinton, Jeb Bush, Poll Watch, Rand Paul, Scott Walker

February 10, 2015

Poll Watch: UNH/WMUR New Hampshire 2016 Presidential Survey

UNH/WMUR New Hampshire 2016 Presidential Poll

  • Hillary Clinton 50%
  • Rand Paul 40%
  • Other 2%
  • Don’t know/Undecided 8%
  • Hillary Clinton 51%
  • Jeb Bush 39%
  • Other 2%
  • Don’t know/Undecided 8%

Survey of 776 likely New Hampshire 2016 presidential election voters was conducted January 22 – February 3, 2015.  The margin of error is +/- 3.5 percentage points.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 11:22 am. Filed under 2016, Hillary Clinton, Jeb Bush, New Hampshire Primary, Poll Watch, Rand Paul

Poll Watch: Fox 5/InsiderAdvantage (R) Georgia 2016 Republican Primary Survey

Fox 5/InsiderAdvantage (R) Georgia 2016 GOP Primary Poll

  • Jeb Bush 21.5%
  • Scott Walker 17.3%
  • Mike Huckabee 16.4%
  • Ben Carson 15.5%
  • Rick Perry 7.2%
  • Rand Paul 3.9%
  • Marco Rubio 3.9%
  • Chris Christie 3.0%
  • Donald Trump 1.9%
  • Other/No opinion 9.5%

Survey of 200 registered Republican primary voters was conducted February 4, 2015.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 9:57 am. Filed under 2016, Jeb Bush, Poll Watch, Republican Party

February 9, 2015

Poll Watch: Saint Anselm College/Bloomberg Politics New Hampshire 2016 Democratic Primary Survey

St. Anselm College/Bloomberg Politics New Hampshire 2016 Democratic Primary Poll

  • Hillary Clinton 56% (62%)
  • Elizabeth Warren 15% (13%)
  • Joe Biden 8% (5%)
  • Bernie Sanders 8% (6%)
  • Martin O’Malley 0% (1%)
  • Jim Webb 0%
  • Someone else 0% (0%)
  • None of the above 2% (2%)
  • Not sure 11% (8%)  

Survey of 400 likely Democratic primary voters was conducted January 31 – February 5, 2015 by Purple Insights.  The margin of error is +/- 4.9 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted November 12-18, 2014 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 5:13 pm. Filed under 2016, Democrats, Hillary Clinton, New Hampshire Primary, Poll Watch

Poll Watch: Saint Anselm College/Bloomberg Politics New Hampshire 2016 GOP Primary Survey

St. Anselm College/Bloomberg Politics New Hampshire 2016 GOP Primary Poll

  • Jeb Bush 16% (14%)
  • Rand Paul 13% (16%)
  • Scott Walker 12%
  • Chris Christie 10% (16%)
  • Ben Carson 6% (9%)
  • Mike Huckabee 6% (8%)
  • Marco Rubio 5%
  • Ted Cruz 3% (5%)
  • Bobby Jindal 3% (4%)
  • Donald Trump 3%
  • John Kasich 2%
  • Rick Santorum 2%
  • Carly Fiorina 1%
  • Rick Perry 1% (3%)
  • Mike Pence 0%
  • Someone else 1% (1%)
  • None of the above 2% (4%)
  • Not sure 14% (13%)  

Survey of 400 likely Republican primary voters was conducted January 31 – February 5, 2015 by Purple Insights.  The margin of error is +/- 4.9 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted November 12-18, 2014 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 1:14 pm. Filed under 2016, Jeb Bush, New Hampshire Primary, Poll Watch, Republican Party

Poll Watch: PPP (D) North Carolina 2016 Presidential Survey

PPP (D) North Carolina 2016 Presidential Poll

  • Ben Carson (R) 45% {44%}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 45% {44%}
  • Jeb Bush (R) 44% {46%} [45%] (42%) {44%} [42%] (44%) {46%} [43%] (44%) {45%} [43%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 44% {46%} [43%] (46%) {45%} [45%] (45%) {47%} [47%] (46%) {46%} [47%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 46%
  • Scott Walker (R) 44%

Survey of 845 registered North Carolina voters was conducted January 29-31, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 3.4 percentage points. Party ID: 43% {42%} [45%] (42%) {43%} [42%] (42%) {42%} [39%] (43%) {43%} [45%] Democrat; 34% {36%} [34%] (31%) {36%} [35%] (36%) {35%} [34%] (33%) {34%} [33%] Republican; 23% {22%} [21%] (27%) {22%} [23%] (22%) {23%} [27%] (23%) {23%} [21%] Independent/Other.  Gender: 53% {53%} [53%] (53%) {53%} [53%] (53%) {53%} [53%] (53%) {53%} [54%] Women; 47% {47%} [47%] (47%) {47%} [47%] (47%) {47%} [47%] (47%) {47%} [46%] Men. Race: 72% {72%} [73%] (75%) {75%} [74%] (74%) {74%} [75%] (73%) {73%} [73%] White; 21% {22%} [20%] (20%) {20%} [20%] (20%) {20%} [20%] (21%) {21%} [20%] Black; 7% {6%} [7%] (5%) {5%} [6%] (6%) {6%} [5%] (6%) {6%} [6%] Other. Results from the poll conducted December 4-7, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted September 11-14, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted August 14-17, 2014 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted June 12-15, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted May 9-11, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted April 3-6, 2014 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted March 6-9, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted February 6-9, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted January 9-12, 2014 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted December 5-8, 2013 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 8-11, 2013 are in square brackets.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 4:00 am. Filed under 2016, Ben Carson, Hillary Clinton, Jeb Bush, Poll Watch, Scott Walker

February 8, 2015

The Latest on Greece

Alan Greenspan said today that the departure of Greece from the Euro is pretty much inevitable.

The former head of the US central bank, Alan Greenspan, has predicted that Greece will have to leave the eurozone.

He told the BBC he could not see who would be willing to put up more loans to bolster Greece’s struggling economy.

Greece wants to re-negotiate its bailout, but Mr Greenspan said “I don’t think it will be resolved without Greece leaving the eurozone”.

Earlier, UK Chancellor George Osborne said a Greek exit would cause “deep ructions” for Britain.

Mr Greenspan, chairman of the Federal Reserve from 1987 to 2006, said: “I believe [Greece] will eventually leave. I don’t think it helps them or the rest of the eurozone – it is just a matter of time before everyone recognises that parting is the best strategy.

Further, he said that the Euro itself cannot survive unless there is political integration of Europe (something he of course knows ain’t gonna happen).

“The problem is that there there is no way that I can conceive of the euro of [sic] continuing, unless and until all of the members of eurozone become politically integrated – actually even just fiscally integrated won’t do it.”

I mostly agree, but then I’m very much a Euro-skeptic.

The BBC, which definitely isn’t, predictably disagrees in an attached analysis.

Alan Greenspan has long been a critic of the European single currency. Now, the 88-year-old former chairman of the US Federal Reserve has repeated a claim that nothing short of full political union – a United States of Europe – can save the euro from extinction.

Given that few (if any) of the current 19 sovereign governments which make up the eurozone would choose to create such an entity at this time, that means – for Greenspan at least – the euro is doomed.

Before all that, though, he foresees Greece quitting the single currency, but the euro surviving intact. Grexit, he says, is more manageable now than it would have been when Greece got its first EU bailout in 2010.

But Greenspan has been badly wrong before. He said markets (and banks in particular) would always act rationally and prevent self destructive crashes. Then the financial crisis happened in 2008 – plunging the world into a massive recession. He did, though, admit his error.

The last paragraph, of course, is a cheap shot to defend the BBC’s enthusiasm for European integration. I will be eagerly awaiting the BBC’s list of economic forecasters who have never been wrong. In the meantime, here’s mine:

1.
2.
3.

Greece, meanwhile, seems to think the solution to their problems is for Germany to pay off Greece’s debts via reparation payments for WW2.

Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras said Sunday the country had a “moral obligation” to claim reparations from Germany for the damages wrought by the Nazis during World War II.

Greece had “a moral obligation to our people, to history, to all European peoples who fought and gave their blood against Nazism,” he said in a key address to parliament.

[ …]

Tsipras’s anti-austerity Syriza party claims Germany owes it around 162 billion euros ($183 billion) — or around half the country’s public debt, which stands at over 315 billion euros.

by @ 5:11 pm. Filed under International

Poll Watch: Monmouth University New Jersey 2016 Presidential Survey

Monmouth University New Jersey 2016 Presidential Poll

Would Chris Christie or Hillary Clinton make a better president?

  • Hillary Clinton (D) 57%
  • Chris Christie (R) 32%

(Among Republicans) Would Chris Christie or Scott Walker make a better president?

  • Chris Christie 51%
  • Scott Walker 30%

(Among Republicans) Would Chris Christie or Jeb Bush make a better president?

  • Chris Christie 46%
  • Jeb Bush 37%

Survey of 712 registered voters, including 162 Republicans, was conducted January 30 – February 2, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 3.7 percentage points among all voters; +/- 7.7% among Republicans. Party ID: 38% Democrat; 21% Republican; 41% Independent.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 5:00 am. Filed under 2016, Chris Christie, Hillary Clinton, Jeb Bush, Poll Watch, Scott Walker

February 7, 2015

Weekend Miscellany

Add your own Miscellany in the comments.

 

The Suburbs – Oh, the Horror!

While Clinton and her advisers had previously eyed the Westchester County city of White Plains, about 25 miles north of Manhattan, Clinton has now more or less decided on a location in New York City, likely either Brooklyn or Queens, according to three knowledgeable Democrats, who spoke on the condition of anonymity since they were not authorized to discuss the matter with the press.

A base in gentrifying Brooklyn or Queens could help give Clinton’s campaign a youthful feel, and would likely be a relief for Democratic operatives dreading a relocation to the suburb, or a daily commute from New York City.

Again we see, in a small way, the tension between the Urban Elite, who are a significant part of the Democratic core, and suburbanites, who are ripe for the plucking by Republicans.

 

Energy Independence vs. Climate Change (Euro Version)

Europe is very much threatened by their dependence upon Russia for energy, but they’d rather worry about other matters.

But another reason fracking is struggling to take off is that — despite Russia’s annexation of the Crimean peninsula and continued strong-arm tactics with its energy exports — many European countries are still less concerned about energy security than climate change.

 

Limbaugh and Levin Disagree about Walker

I’m not into conservative talk radio, but there seems to be a minor spat, according to this report, between Rush Limbaugh and Mark Levin.

But fellow conservative talker Mark Levin seems not to be on board the bandwagon and has become increasingly outspoken on the matter. Though the syndicated host is adamant that he’s supported the governor through many past battles, he’s unsure that Walker’s stance on illegal immigration is sufficiently conservative. “What’s all of this Scott Walker stuff all of the sudden?” he asked listeners during a recent monologue.

In addition, Levin has repeatedly criticized Walker for a comment he made last November about the experience necessary to become president.According to a piece that ran in Gannett newspapers, the latter told Meet The Press at that time that “governors make much better presidents than members of Congress.” Levin then called the remark “stupid” and said the governor was attempting to “redefine the qualifications for the presidency to exclude all other competition.”

During the most recent segment, Levin seems defensive, as though he anticipates attacks by the conservative base for questioning Walker’s credentials. He also takes oblique shots at others for backing someone so early in the campaign cycle. Could he be criticizing Limbaugh?

As I said, talk radio is not my thing, but if there’s a fight between Limbaugh and Levin, I have a feeling the winner will be Limbaugh (I’d even give about six million points).

 

Re Brian Williams

I think this whole Brian Williams thing has been blown out of proportion. I mean, don’t we all sometimes forget whether or not we’ve been in a helicopter that got shot down?

brian williams

Interesting Subplot to Election of 1916

I had never heard this before, but this article says that Woodrow Wilson – in the immediate aftermath of the election, when he thought he might have lost – was sufficiently concerned about the long presidential transition period (four months at that time), and the dangers of the war in Europe that he considered resigning early and letting Charles Evans Hughes take over. The idea was to appoint Hughes Secretary of State, and then Wilson and his VP would resign. At the time, SoS was next in line of succession.

 

Cartograph of Countries by Population

This shows countries in proportion to their population.

newmap_custom-f5040e6a2ca02eb4086de79a7cdf16d0557fc7f9-s800-c85

 

Annoyed by Long Checkout Lines? Nick Maduro Is on Your Side

We’ve all stood in a seemingly endless, unmoving checkout line at a retailer, wishing we were somewhere/anywhere else. Well, Venezuela has done something about it. They’ve thrown the president and VP-operations of a major retailer, Farmatodo, in jail, because …

“Last Saturday, officials … inspected a pharmacy of that chain in Los Ilustres Avenue, in Caracas, where they found that various checkouts were not operating while a large line of people waited to pay for their products,” the statement said.

This is apparently because long lines are part of a campaign of economic destabilization against the government. Or something.

The move against Farmatodo came as Venezuelan authorities also took over 35 stores belonging to the “Dia a Dia” (Day to Day) supermarket chain this week on charges it hoarded food to stoke public exasperation over shortages.

I’m sure the government will soon have them humming along as smoothly as your friendly DMV.

 

Quickly Noted
FBI Cold War Contingency Plan: Martial law and other steps.
Red Meat: The left wants ‘sustainability’ to be part of the diet pyramid.
Will East Asia Disappear?: Well, not soon or anything, but the demographics are a problem. Two articles on the subject.

by @ 9:00 am. Filed under Misc.

February 6, 2015

Poll Watch: Quinnipiac Swing State 2016 Presidential Surveys

Quinnipiac Ohio 2016 Presidential Poll

  • Hillary Clinton (D) 44% [47%] (47%) {51%} [49%]
  • John Kasich (R) 43% [40%] (42%) {39%} [38%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 47% [48%] (48%) {51%} [50%]
  • Jeb Bush (R) 36% [37%] (39%) {36%} [37%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 48% [46%] (49%) {51%} [50%] (47%)
  • Rand Paul (R) 36% [42%] (41%) {38%} [40%] (44%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 47% [46%] (46%) {49%} [42%] (42%)
  • Chris Christie (R) 34% [37%] (38%) {36%} [41%] (42%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 49% (49%)
  • Mike Huckabee (R) 34% (41%)

Survey of 943 registered voters was conducted January 22 – February 1, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 3.2 percentage points. Party ID: 28% [32%] (29%) {32%} [31%] (29%) Democrat; 26% [28%] (29%) {28%} [26%] (28%) Republican; 32% [35%] (35%) {33%} [36%] (35%) Independent; 13% [6%] (8%) {7%} [7%] (7%) Other. Click here to view crosstabs. Results from the poll conducted July 24-28, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted May 7-12, 2014 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted February 12-17, 2014 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 19-24, 2013 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted June 18-23, 2013 are in parentheses.

Quinnipiac Florida 2016 Presidential Poll

  • Hillary Clinton (D) 44% {49%} [49%] (49%) {47%} [50%] (51%)
  • Jeb Bush (R) 43% {42%} [41%] (43%) {45%} [43%] (40%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 49% {53%} [52%] (51%) {50%} [53%] (52%)
  • Marco Rubio (R) 39% {39%} [40%] (41%) {43%} [41%] (41%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 50% {53%} [55%] (53%) {51%}
  • Rand Paul (R) 38% {37%} [37%] (38%) {41%}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 51% [53%]
  • Mike Huckabee (R) 34% [35%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 51% {54%} [52%] (51%) {45%}
  • Chris Christie (R) 33% {33%} [34%] (35%) {41%}

Survey of 936 registered voters was conducted January 22 – February 1, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 3.2 percentage points. Party ID: 33% {31%} [31%] (30%) {32%} [34%] (35%) Democrat; 28% {28%} [25%] (27%) {29%} [28%] (27%) Republican; 30% {32%} [34%] (35%) {32%} [30%] (31%) Independent; 8% {9%} [11%] (7%) {7%} [8%] (7%) Other. Click here to view crosstabs. Results from the poll conducted July 17-21, 2014 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 23-28, 2014 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 22-27, 2014 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted November 12-17, 2013 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted June 11-16, 2013 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted March 13-18, 2013 are in parentheses.

Quinnipiac Pennsylvania 2016 Presidential Poll

  • Hillary Clinton (D) 50% [45%] (46%) {44%} (47%)
  • Chris Christie (R) 39% [41%] (41%) {43%} (42%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 50% [51%] (53%) {52%}
  • Jeb Bush (R) 35% [35%] (36%) {36%}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 53% [51%] (53%) {52%} [52%]
  • Rand Paul (R) 34% [37%] (38%) {40%} [37%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 54% [51%]
  • Mike Huckabee (R) 34% [36%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 54% (53%) {51%} [53%]
  • Rick Santorum (R) 34% (37%) {38%} [36%]
Survey of 881 registered voters was conducted January 22 – February 1, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 3.3 percentage points.  Party ID: 36% [38%] (35%) {36%} [39%] (37%) Democrat; 28% [30%] (32%) {30%} [33%] (34%) Republican; 28% [27%] (26%) {27%} [21%] (24%) Independent; 8% [6%] (7%) {7%} [7%] (5%) Other/Don’t know.  Click here to view crosstabs. Results from the poll conductedMay 29 – June 2, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted February 19-24, 2014 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted December 11-16, 2013 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 30 – June 4, 2013 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted March 6-11, 2013 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 12:49 pm. Filed under 2016, Hillary Clinton, Poll Watch, Republican Party

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