June 30, 2015

Poll Watch: Four-Way Tie for Lead in Michigan

Well, since the FCC banned robo-calling the other day, Public Policy Polling has now been forced to hire some actual human beings, pay a little more to conduct their polls, and actually poll all 16 candidates. Given those developments, I’ll reconsider posting their work on the front page… starting with today’s Michigan survey:

PPP Michigan Republican Primary

  • Walker – 15%
  • Bush – 14%
  • Carson – 14%
  • Trump – 14%
  • Rubio – 9%
  • Huckabee – 8%
  • Christie – 5%
  • Cruz – 5%
  • Paul – 4%
  • Fiorina – 3%
  • Kasich – 3%
  • Santorum – 2%
  • Graham – 1%
  • Perry – 1%
  • Jindal – 0%
  • Pataki – 0%
  • Someone Else/Not Sure – 2%

Survey of 465 registered Republicans was conducted June 25-28 and has a margin of error of ±4.5%.

General Election Matchups

  • Clinton – 45%
  • Paul – 42%
  • Clinton – 46%
  • Walker – 42%
  • Clinton – 47%
  • Huckabee – 42%
  • Clinton – 44%
  • Christie – 38%
  • Clinton – 46%
  • Rubio – 40%
  • Clinton – 49%
  • Carson – 41%
  • Clinton – 46%
  • Fiorina – 38%
  • Clinton – 47%
  • Bush – 38%
  • Clinton – 49%
  • Cruz – 39%
  • Clinton – 49%
  • Trump – 39%

Survey of 1,072 registered voters was conducted June 25-28 and has a margin of error of ±3%.

  2:14 pm Poll Watch  

Chris Christie Official Announcement

This morning, Chris Christie became the 14th major GOP candidate when he launched the Straight Talk Express… er, I mean, the “Telling it Like it Is” Tour.

The New York Times actually summed up Christie’s bid, and entire political career, pretty succinctly in the first two paragraphs of their story:

CIw7BOgUYAAiyrD

  1:51 pm Chris Christie  

Tuesday Open Thread (Puerto Rico Edition)

So Puerto Rico is joining Greece in collapse. Here’s a quick hit at the basics from The Washington Post.

To summarize, they’re massively in debt (about $72bil), they have massive unemployment (laborforce participation is about 40%), and the population is in serious decline (why stick around and be left holding the tab?). And then there’s this:

… the government has made things worse by regularly spending more than it gets in tax revenues.

Who knew that would be a problem? As an aside: I liked this line …

The report cites one surprising problem: the federal minimum wage …

A surprise? Well, remember this is the WaPo.

Probably the biggest Grexit worry is contagion. WaPo echoes that for PR:

Wall Street might hesitate to lend to money cities around the country. A huge mess in Puerto Rico after smaller bankruptcies in Detroit and other cities might suggest to some investors that loaning money to local governments in this country isn’t always a safe bet — and that would make new roads, new schools and other projects more expensive.

Shorter version: Watch out, Illinois.

  7:00 am Uncategorized  

June 29, 2015

SCOTUS Upholds Redistricting Commissions

The Supreme Court today upheld Arizona’s Redistricting Commission (and, by extension, those of several other states) against a challenge by the state legislature. The legislature had based its argument on the plain language of the Constitution’s Elections Clause, which says that congressional boundaries must be set by the legislatures of the various states.

Chief Justice John Roberts wrote the primary dissent, calling the decision “a magic trick with the Elections Clause.”

“That Clause vests congressional redistricting authority in ‘the Legislature’ of each State,” Roberts wrote. “An Arizona ballot initiative transferred that authority from ‘the Legislature’ to an ‘Independent Redistricting Commission.’ The majority approves this deliberate constitutional evasion by doing what the proponents of the Seventeenth Amendment [direct election of U.S. senators] dared not: revising ‘the Legislature’ to mean ‘the people.’”

This is not the biggest decision to be made this session, obviously. Nonetheless, it brings a few points to mind:

  • It’s good to see that the CJ has decided that words have meanings. What happened in the past week to change his mind on that point?
  • The court liberals are on quite a winning streak. If Republicans do not win the presidency next year, and hold on to the Senate, that streak may last a long, long time.
  • This may have repercussions on Arizona’s senate race: if the legislature had won, they might have gerrymandered Kirsten Sinema’s district enough to push her into running against Ann Kirkpatrick for the Democratic nomination. Sinema would be a much stronger opponent against McCain, though I’d still bet on McCain, and would probably wipe the floor with Kelli Ward, in the unlikely event Ward got the Republican nomination. But that’s all academic now. The CW is that Sinema will stay put in the House for now.
  4:00 pm Uncategorized  

Phil Rosen Endorses Marco Rubio

Breaking news from the invisible primary: Phil Rosen, billionaire activist and fundraising bundler, has chosen to endorse Senator Marco Rubio in the 2016 primary. Rosen will not only raise millions of dollars for the Rubio campaign, he will also serve as a foreign policy advisor.

The Washington Post calls this “a big get” for Rubio. Why is Rosen so important? I’ll let the Jewish Journal newspaper spell it out for you:

Rosen, one of Mitt Romney’s top bundlers in 2012, was highly sought after … Rosen’s endorsement is significant for a few reasons.

1. Fundraising. Rosen is one of the leading bundlers in presidential politics…

2. Sheldon Adelson. Rosen is close with Sheldon Adelson, with whom he serves on the boards of the Republican Jewish Coalition (RJC) and Birthright Israel. Adelson is already rumored to be favoring Rubio and … adding Rosen can only help Rubio close the deal.

3. Walker v. Rubio Bellwether. Rosen, who is very well connected in New York City fundraising circles, is believed to have deliberated between Walker and Rubio for a while… As the Washington Post reported last week, Walker has struggled to make inroads among NYC donors, and Rosen perhaps serves as a bellwether for others deciding between Walker and Rubio.

Here’s the bottom line: all the candidates wanted Rosen. Early on, the article notes, he even donated to Ted Cruz’s campaign before jumping off that ship. In the end, it came down to Walker and Rubio, and Rubio won out. Now Senator Rubio gets “one of the leading bundlers in presidential politics” along with a strong advisor on foreign policy — and a huge chip to lay on the table when attempting to win the support of other bundlers and money men. If any of the anti-Bush candidates are going to defeat Jeb in the primary this year, they’re going to need two things: a lot of money, and for people to believe they can actually win. Rosen brings both to Rubio’s campaign.

  3:52 pm Endorsements, Fundraising, Marco Rubio  

NBC to Trump: “YOU’RE FIRED”

Following Univision’s decision not to air the Miss USA pageant, NBCUniversal has ended its business relationship with Donald Trump. Pressure has been building on NBC to dump Trump-related programing ever since the Republican presidential candidate made comments about Mexican immigrants that many viewed as bigoted. Miss USA and Miss Universe will no longer be aired on NBC, and “Celebrity Apprentice”, which is licensed from United Artists Media Group, will likely continue with a new host. From NBC: 

“At NBC, respect and dignity for all people are cornerstones of our values,” the company said in a statement. “Due to the recent derogatory statements by Donald Trump regarding immigrants, NBCUniversal is ending its business relationship with Mr. Trump.”

I’m no fan of political correctness, not when Rush Limbaugh is the target of boycotts, not when Bill Maher is fired for speaking his mind, but I am willing to make an exception when it comes to Mr. Trump. In an effort to save our party from the embarrassment of having this man on stage with our eventual nominee, I hope Fox News and the RNC follow NBC and keep Trump as far away as possible.

  1:53 pm Donald Trump  

Christie Announcement Video

Ahead of his formal announcement, Christie released this video announcement. The video’s entitled, “Telling it Like It Is.”

  12:53 pm 2016, Chris Christie  

Race 4 2016 Weekly Readers Poll

Happy Monday everyone. Below is a link to our weekly readers’ poll. There are seven questions this week and you have to login with Google to vote. Thanks for participating.

Last week we had 82 responses and the results are as follows.

If the GOP nomination came down to Bush, Rubio, Paul, Huckabee and Walker, R 4 2016 readers choose Senator Rubio (46.3%) overwhelmingly.  Governor Walker (19.5%) comes in a distant second followed by Governors Bush and Huckabee (12.2% each).

The vast majority (90.2%) of Race readers do not think the GOP nominee has to choose a female running mate. Of a handful of potential female veep candidates, New Mexico Governor Susana Martinez (24.7%) leads the pack followed closely by former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice (21%) and Governor Nikki Haley of South Carolina takes the bronze medal with 18.5%.

More than half of all respondents (50.6%) think that Governor John Kasich of Ohio has the best chance of jumping into the upper tier of candidates.

By a 73-27 margin, Race readers do not think the RNC should ban Donald Trump from the debates while fiscal policy (29.3%) and electability (26.8%) are the top two issues/attributes that will affect our votes.

Race 4 2016 Weekly Readers Poll

  12:04 pm 2016, 2016 Candidates  

Monday Markets: Consolidation Edition

A week ago we introduced you to PredictWise, the Microsoft Research project that uses futures markets to attempt to predict (among other things) political outcomes. It seems like a good way to start each week by checking in on the PredictWise numbers as a way to gauge the state of the race. So, here’s your first Monday Market update:

The big movement this week was in the consolidation of the Big Three — Bush, Rubio, and Walker. Each of them gained, to the detriment of the other 13 candidates, and currently comprise a whopping 81% of the odds (up from 72% last week). Paul is the biggest loser, but in all actuality the investors currently see the race as the big three and then just everybody else.

Candidate
Value
Change
Bush
38%
+5
Rubio
25%
+2
Walker
18%
+2
Paul
5%
-4
Carson
2%
E
Christie
2%
+1
Trump
2%
-1
Cruz
1%
E
Fiorina
1%
E
Huckabee
1%
-1
Kasich
1%
E
Perry
1%
E
Santorum
1%
E
Graham
0%
-1
Jindal
0%
-1
Pataki
0%
E

Also, don’t miss the updated Candidacy Tracker at the top of the page, now with the final three announcement dates added in.

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