September 11, 2014

Poll Watch: Magellan Strategies (R) Kentucky 2014 Senatorial Survey

Magellan Strategies (R) Kentucky 2014 Senate Poll

  • Mitch McConnell (R) 50% (46%)
  • Alison Lundergan Grimes (D) 42% (49%)
  • David Patterson (L) 6%
  • Undecided 2% (5%)

Survey of 742 likely voters was conducted September 4 and 7, 2014 for the National Mining Association. The margin of error is +/- 3.6 percentage points. Party registration: 56% (56%) Democrat; 40% (40%) Republican; 4% (4%) Independent. Results from the poll conducted June 4-5, 2014 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 8:45 pm. Filed under 2014, Poll Watch

Poll Watch: Quinnipiac Connecticut 2014 Gubernatorial Survey

Quinnipiac Connecticut 2014 Gubernatorial Poll

If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Dan Malloy the Democrat, Tom Foley the Republican, and Joe Visconti running as an independent, for whom would you vote?

  • Tom Foley (R) 46%
  • Dannel Malloy (D) 40%
  • Joe Visconti (I) 7%

Recalculated matchup, with Visconti supporters asked for their second choice:

  • Tom Foley (R) 49% {43%} [42%] (43%)
  • Dannel Malloy (D) 43% {43%} [42%] (40%)

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

  • Tom Foley 42% {36%} [38%] (35%) / 33% {23%} [21%] (18%) {+9%}
  • Dannel Malloy 40% {46%} [46%] (46%) / 53% {45%} [43%] (44%) {-13%}

Survey of 1,304 likely voters was conducted September 3-8, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 2.7 percentage points.  Party ID: 31% {32%} [31%] (34%) Democrat; 26% {21%} [20%] (21%) Republican; 38% {42%} [42%] (40%) Independent; 5% {5%} [6%] (4%) Other. Results from the poll conducted May 1-6, 2014 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 26 – March 2, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted June 12-17, 2013 are in parentheses

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 8:15 pm. Filed under 2014, Poll Watch

Poll Watch: Glengariff Group Michigan 2014 Senatorial Survey

Glengariff Group Michigan 2014 Senate Poll

  • Gary Peters (D) 47.0% (39.6%)
  • Terri Lynn Land (R) 36.5% (35.3%)
  • Other candidate 3.5%

Survey of 600 likely voters was conducted September 3-5, 2014 for The Detroit News and WDIV-TV. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points. Party ID: 40% (36.7%) Democrat; 38% (33.7%) Republican; 20% (26.7%) Independent. Results from the poll conducted May 20-22, 2014 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 7:45 pm. Filed under 2014, Poll Watch

Poll Watch: SurveyUSA Georgia 2014 Senatorial Survey

  • David Perdue (R) 47% [50%] (43%)
  • Michelle Nunn (D) 44% [41%] (38%)
  • Amanda Swafford (L) 5% [3%] (6%)
  • Undecided 4% [6%] (14%)

Among Men

  • David Perdue (R) 55% [56%] (50%)
  • Michelle Nunn (D) 36% [37%] (33%)
  • Amanda Swafford (L) 6% [2%] (6%)
  • Undecided 3% [4%] (11%)

Among Women

  • Michelle Nunn (D) 52% [46%] (44%)
  • David Perdue (R) 40% [44%] (35%)
  • Amanda Swafford (L) 3% [3%] (5%)
  • Undecided 4% [7%] (16%)

Survey of 558 likely voters was conducted September 5-8, 2014 for WXIA-TV Atlanta.  The margin of error is +/- 4.2 percentage points.  Party ID: 40% [38%] (35%) Democrat; 37% [40%] (38%) Republican; 23% [21%] (25%) Independent.  Ideology: 42% [44%](40%) Conservative; 36% [38%] (38%) Moderate; 17% [13%] (15%) Liberal.  Gender: 51% [48%] (47%) Female; 49% [52%] (53%) Male.  Race: 62% [63%] (65%) White; 29% [26%] (24%) Black; 6% [7%] (7%) Hispanic. Results from the poll conducted August 14-17, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted June 3-5, 2014 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 7:15 pm. Filed under 2014, Poll Watch

Poll Watch: SurveyUSA South Dakota 2014 Senatorial Survey

SurveyUSA South Dakota 2014 Senate Poll

  • Mike Rounds (R) 39% (44%)
  • Rick Weiland (D) 28% (30%)
  • Larry Pressler (I) 25% (17%)
  • Gordon Howie (I) 3% (3%)
  • Undecided 5% (5%)

Survey of 510 likely voters was conducted September 3-7, 2014.  The margin of error is +/- 4.4 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted May 6-10, 2014 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 6:45 pm. Filed under 2014, Poll Watch

Poll Watch: PPP (D) Florida 2016 Presidential Survey

PPP (D) Florida 2016 Presidential Poll

  • Hillary Clinton (D) 46% {46%} [53%] (49%)
  • Jeb Bush (R) 44% {45%} [40%] (44%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 49% {48%} [56%] (50%)
  • Marco Rubio (R) 42% {44%} [40%] (46%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 46% {46%}
  • Chris Christie (R) 38% {38%}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 48% {48%}
  • Rand Paul (R) 40% {42%}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 49% {48%}
  • Mike Huckabee (R) 40% {41%}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 51% {50%}
  • Ted Cruz (R) 36% {39%}

Among Men

  • Hillary Clinton (D) 47% {43%} [47%] (43%)
  • Jeb Bush (R) 42% {50%} [46%] (52%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 49% {42%} [50%] (43%)
  • Marco Rubio (R) 43% {49%} [46%] (53%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 46% {40%}
  • Chris Christie (R) 40% {44%}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 48% {43%}
  • Rand Paul (R) 41% {48%}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 48% {44%}
  • Mike Huckabee (R) 42% {47%}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 51% {46%}
  • Ted Cruz (R) 38% {46%}

Among Women

  • Jeb Bush (R) 46% {41%} [35%] (36%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 45% {49%} [58%] (54%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 49% {53%} [61%] (56%)
  • Marco Rubio (R) 40% {39%} [35%] (39%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 47% {51%}
  • Chris Christie (R) 37% {34%}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 49% {53%}
  • Rand Paul (R) 39% {37%}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 50% {52%}
  • Mike Huckabee (R) 39% {36%}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 52% {54%}
  • Ted Cruz (R) 36% {33%}

Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Marco Rubio’s job performance?

  • Approve 44% {45%} [44%] (49%)
  • Disapprove 41% {40%} [43%] (36%)

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Jeb Bush?

  • Favorable 50% {51%} [50%] (51%)
  • Unfavorable 35% {35%} [37%] (35%)

Do you think Jeb Bush should run for President in 2016, or not?

  • He should 31% {35%} [33%] (32%)
  • He should not 53% {50%} [51%] (53%)

Do you think Marco Rubio should run for President in 2016, or not?

  • He should 32% {27%} [37%] (38%)
  • He should not 53% {59%} [53%] (49%)

Survey of 818 likely voters was conducted September 4-7, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 3.4 percentage points. Party ID: 40% {38%} [42%] (44%) Democrat; 38% {37%} [37%] (38%) Republican; 22% {25%} [22%] (18%) Independent/Other.  Political ideology: 31% {28%} [32%] (33%) Moderate; 23% {25%} [21%] (21%) Somewhat conservative; 19% {22%} [17%] (17%) Somewhat liberal; 13% {15%}[17%] (18%) Very conservative; 13% {11%} [13%] (12%) Very liberal.  Results from the poll conducted June 6-9, 2014 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 15-18, 2013 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 11-13, 2013are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 6:15 pm. Filed under 2016, Herman Cain, Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, Poll Watch

Poll Watch: Rasmussen Maine 2014 Gubernatorial Survey

Rasmussen Maine 2014 Gubernatorial Poll

  • Mike Michaud (D) 43% (40%)
  • Paul LePage (R) 39% (40%)
  • Eliot Cutler (I) 15% (14%)
  • Undecided 4% (5%)
Survey of 750 likely voters was conducted September 3-4, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted April 23-25, 2014 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 5:45 pm. Filed under 2014, Poll Watch

Poll Watch: Fairleigh Dickinson PublicMind New Jersey 2016 Presidential Survey

FDU PublicMind New Jersey 2016 Presidential Poll 

  • Hillary Clinton (D) 45%
  • Chris Christie (R) 42%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 48%
  • Rand Paul (R) 33%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 51%
  • Jeb Bush (R) 32%
Among Independents
  • Chris Christie (R) 41%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 35%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 41%
  • Rand Paul (R) 30%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 45%
  • Jeb Bush (R) 22%
Among Men
  • Chris Christie (R) 44%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 43%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 42%
  • Rand Paul (R) 39%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 47%
  • Jeb Bush (R) 34%

Among Women

  • Hillary Clinton (D) 48%
  • Chris Christie (R) 40%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 53%
  • Rand Paul (R) 28%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 54%
  • Jeb Bush (R) 31%

Survey of 721 registered voters was conducted September 1-7, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 3.7 percentage points.  Party ID: 40% Democrat; 38% Republican; 23% Independent.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 5:15 pm. Filed under 2016, Poll Watch

Poll Watch: PPP (D) Michigan 2016 Presidential Survey

  • Hillary Clinton (D) 49% [47%] (48%) {48%} [55%]
  • Rand Paul (R) 39% [37%] (39%) {39%} [35%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 49% [47%] (49%) {46%} [51%]
  • Jeb Bush (R) 38% [37%] (38%) {42%} [37%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 48% [48%] (46%) {43%} [44%]
  • Chris Christie (R) 36% [35%] (37%) {40%} [38%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 50% [48%] (50%)
  • Mike Huckabee (R) 38% [36%] (38%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 51% [50%] {49%}
  • Ted Cruz (R) 37% [34%] {38%}
Survey of 687 likely voters was conducted September 4-7, 2014.  The margin of error is +/- 3.7 percentage points. Party ID: 37% [35%] (35%) {35%} [36%] Democrat; 29% [27%] (30%) {30%} [29%]Republican; 34% [38%] (35%) {35%} [35%] Independent/Other.  Political ideology: 27% [30%] (28%) {31%} [33%] Moderate; 23% [18%] (19%) {17%} [18%] Somewhat liberal; 21% [23%] (26%) {25%} [25%] Somewhat conservative; 15% [14%] (14%) {14%} [13%]Very conservative; 14% [14%] (12%) {12%} [11%] Very liberal.Results from the poll conducted June 26-29, 2014 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 3-6, 2014 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted December 5-8, 2013 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 30 – June 2, 2013 are in square brackets

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 4:45 pm. Filed under 2016, Poll Watch

Poll Watch: PPP (D) Michigan 2014 Senatorial Survey

PPP (D) Michigan 2014 Senate Poll

The candidates for U.S. Senate are Republican Terri Lynn Land, Democrat Gary Peters, Libertarian Jim Fulner, Green Party candidate Chris Wahmhoff, and U.S. Taxpayers Party candidate Richard Matkin. If the election was today, who would you vote for?

  • Gary Peters (D) 43%
  • Terri Lynn Land (R) 36%
  • Jim Fulner (L) 4%
  • Richard Matkin (UST) 2%
  • Chris Wahmhoff (G) 1%
  • Undecided 13%

Horse race, with third-party supporters asked if they’d vote Land or Peters:

  • Gary Peters (D) 45% (41%) {41%} [40%] (41%)
  • Terri Lynn Land (R) 40% (36%) {36%} [42%] (36%)
  • Not sure 15% (24%) {23%} [18%] (23%)

Among Men

  • Terri Lynn Land (R) 47% (39%) {40%} [50%] (42%)
  • Gary Peters (D) 44% (38%) {40%} [35%] (40%)
  • Not sure 9% (23%) {20%} [14%] (19%)

Among Women

  • Gary Peters (D) 47% (44%) {42%} [45%] (42%)
  • Terri Lynn Land (R) 33% (32%) {32%} [34%] (30%)
  • Not sure 20% (24%) {26%} [21%] (28%)

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

  • Gary Peters 35% (26%) {26%} [22%] (18%) / 36% (28%) {27%} [21%] (16%) {-1%}
  • Terri Lynn Land 32% (32%) {28%} [34%] (29%) / 49% (42%) {31%} [23%] (21%) {-17%}

Survey of 687 likely voters was conducted September 4-7, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 3.7 percentage points. Party ID: 37% (35%) {35%} [35%] (36%) Democrat; 29% (27%) {30%} [30%] (29%) Republican; 34% (38%) {35%} [35%] (35%) Independent/Other. Ideology: 27% (30%) {28%} [31%] (33%) Moderate; 23% (18%) {19%} [17%] (18%) Somewhat liberal; 21% (23%) {26%} [25%] (25%) Somewhat conservative; 15% (14%)  {14%} [14%] (13%) Very conservative; 14% (14%) {12%} [12%] (11%) Very liberal. Results from the poll conducted June 26-29, 2014 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted April 3-6, 2014 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted December 5-8, 2013 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted May 30 – June 2, 2013 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 3:15 pm. Filed under 2014, Poll Watch

Poll Watch: Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group (D) North Carolina 2014 Senatorial Survey

Survey of 802 likely voters was conducted September 3-6, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 3.5 percentage points.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 12:00 pm. Filed under 2014, Poll Watch

Poll Watch: SurveyUSA Kansas 2014 Senatorial Survey

SurveyUSA Kansas 2014 Senate Poll

If there were an election for US Senate today, and Democrat Chad Taylor’s name still appeared on the ballot even though he no longer wants to run, and the other names on the ballot were Republican Pat Roberts, Independent Greg Orman, and Libertarian Randall Batson, who would you vote for?

  • Greg Orman (I) 37% {20%}  [14%] (7%)
  • Pat Roberts (R) 36% {37%} [38%] (43%)
  • Chad Taylor (D) 10% {32%} [33%] (33%)
  • Randall Batson (L) 6% {4%} [4%] (5%)
  • Undecided 11% {6%} [10%] (12%)

Survey of 555 likely voters was conducted September 4-7, 2014 for KSN News Wichita. The margin of error is +/- 4.2 percentage points. Party ID: 50% {46%} [56%] (56%) Republican; 30% {32%} [26%] (28%) Democrat; 18% {18%} [18%] (16%) Independent. Ideology: 42% {39%} [38%] (40%) Moderate; 38% {38%} [42%] (39%) Conservative; 14% {14%} [17%] (14%) Liberal. Results from the poll conducted August 20-23, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted July 17-22, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted June 19-23, 2014 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 11:30 am. Filed under 2014, Poll Watch

Poll Watch: Loras College Iowa 2014 Senatorial Survey

Loras College Iowa 2014 Senate Poll 

  • Bruce Braley (D) 45.3% (41.7%)
  • Joni Ernst (R) 40.5% (48.0%)
  • Undecided 14.2% (10.3%)

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

  • Bruce Braley 36.3% (35.8%) / 33.7% (25.7%) {+2.6%}
  • Joni Ernst 36.9% (42.2%) / 39.5% (29.2%) {-2.6%}

Survey of 1,200 likely voters was conducted September 2-5, 2014.  The margin of error is +/- 2.82 percentage points. Party ID: 32.6% (36.0%) Democrat; 30.2% (39.3%) Republican; 33.8% (24.7%) Independent/No party. Results from the poll conducted June 4-5, 2014 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 11:00 am. Filed under 2014, Poll Watch

Poll Watch: Public Opinion Strategies (R) North Carolina 2014 Senatorial Survey

Public Opinion Strategies (R) North Carolina 2014 Senate Poll

  • Thom Tillis (R) 44% (41%)
  • Kay Hagan (D) 44% (44%)
  • Sean Haugh (L) 8% (9%)
  • Undecided 4%

Survey of 600 likely voters was conducted September 2-4, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 4.0 percentage points. Party ID: 41% Democrat; 32% Republican. Race: 72% White; 21% Black; 7% Other. Results from the poll conducted May, 2014 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 10:30 am. Filed under 2014, Poll Watch

Poll Watch: CBS News/New York Times/YouGov South Carolina 2014 Senatorial Survey

CBS News/New York Times/YouGov South Carolina 2014 Senate Poll

  • Tim Scott (R) 54% (54%)
  • Joyce Dickerson (D) 33% (40%)
  • Not sure 13%

Survey of 833 likely voters was conducted August 18 – September 2, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 5.0 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted July 5-24, 2014 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 10:00 am. Filed under 2014, Poll Watch

Poll Watch: CBS News/New York Times/YouGov New Mexico 2014 Senatorial Survey

CBS News/New York Times/YouGov New Mexico 2014 Senate Poll

  • Tom Udall (D) 54% (52%)
  • Allen Weh (R) 36% (44%)
  • Other 2%
  • Not sure 8%

Survey of 1,096 likely voters was conducted August 18 – September 2, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 4.0 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted July 5-24, 2014 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 4:00 am. Filed under 2014, Poll Watch

September 10, 2014

Way Too Early 2016 POWER RANKINGS

1. Rand Paul, U.S. Senator from Kentucky

The junior senator from Kentucky has earned the top spot on these rankings for two reasons; his strong grassroots organization in the early states of Iowa and New Hampshire and the continued troubles of his main establishment rivals. Paul has successfully capitalized on his father’s prior campaigns to gain a strong foothold in the early nominating states. The senator has also benefited from the major problems facing his key opponents. Bridgegate has critically damaged Gov. Chris Christie, immigration reform proved a major setback for Sen. Marco Rubio, and Gov. Scott Walker is currently trailing his Democratic rival for reelection. So serious is Paul’s candidacy that the establishment is looking to old reliables Jeb Bush and Mitt Romney to keep the nomination in their hands. Until the establishment unites behind a candidate, the muddled field and early grassroots work favor Rand Paul.

2. Jeb Bush,  former Governor of Florida

The scion of the Bush dynasty is hinting that he is ready to run for president. Bush would be the most natural candidate for the establishment, and he would command a massive donor base and prominent campaign talent. Like Gov. Romney in 2012, Bush could unite the establishment wing while conservatives divide among multiple candidates. While Rand Paul, Ted Cruz, and Rick Perry fight for Tea Party votes, Bush could follow the Romney path to the nomination. The Bush family’s strength in the south and with evangelical voters would give Jeb advantages that other establishment candidates like McCain and Romney lacked.

3. Marco Rubio, U.S. Senator from Florida

Sen. Rubio has rebounded somewhat from the immigration flap that knocked him down in the eyes of conservatives. His command of foreign policy issues as well as the gravitas he displays when discussing issues like poverty show why his stock was so high in the first place. The Florida senator’s biggest obstacle at this point are the ambitions of his mentor, Gov. Jeb Bush, and it is unlikely that both would seek the nomination. Should Jeb take a pass on the race, Rubio would benefit more than anyone. The historic nature of his candidacy as well as his youth would be strong assets against the Democratic frontrunner, Hillary Clinton.

4. Mitt Romney,  former Governor of Massachusetts

The 2012 Republican nominee is enjoying a bit of a comeback in the eyes of the public of late. The mounting failures of President Barack Obama have left the nation with a feeling of buyer’s remorse. Gov. Romney’s accurate predictions on the problems with Obamacare, the rise of Islamic radicals in Syria and Iraq, and the geopolitical strife caused by Russia have left many wishing he were the president confronting these issues today. Romney’s strengths remain the same; command of the issues, strong name ID, and the strongest fundraising base in the GOP. Should he seek the presidency a third time, he would be the same age as Ronald Reagan during his third run in 1980.

5. Paul Ryan, U.S. Representative from Wisconsin

If any candidate can claim “next in line” status from the 2012 election, it would be Rep. Paul Ryan. Ryan is still a very popular figure in conservative circles, and fears over how his budget would be portrayed never really panned out in 2012. Ryan would have the advantage of having been in a national campaign before and would likely have access to Mitt Romney’s formidable donor base. His wonkish style needs polish on the campaign trail, but his reputation as an “ideas man” could boost him over his more reactionary rivals.

6. Chris Christie, Governor of New Jersey

Gov. Chris Christie’s prospects have taken a beating since a scandal erupted surrounding the closing of access lanes to the George Washington Bridge earlier this year. The governor has stopped the bleeding, and still retains solid approval numbers for a blue state Republican. He has also shattered fundraising records as head of the RGA, proving he is still a major draw to the GOP donor class. Christie still commands the media stage and could unite the establishment wing of the party, but the continued investigation into Bridgegate by U.S. Attorney Paul Fishman (a Clinton donor) remains a dark cloud over his head.

7. Ted Cruz, U.S. Senator from Texas

The junior senator from Texas has emerged a the Tea Party favorite for 2016. Cruz’s conservative credentials combined with a more hawkish foreign policy gives him the chance to win over voters nervous about the isolationist tendencies of Rand Paul. His early trips to Iowa have been met with rave reviews, and his eloquence and debating skills will make him far stronger than any other Tea Party type who has stepped on to the national stage.

8. Mike Pence, Governor of Indiana

The Indiana governor has quietly begun testing the waters for 2016 and with good reason; he is one of the few republicans admired by establishment, Tea Party, and social conservatives. Pence’s record as a congressman earned him fiscal conservative praise second only to Paul Ryan, and his passionate but friendly defense of social conservatism reminds many observers of the charms of former Gov. Mike Huckabee. Pence’s low name ID and weak fundraising base are early obstacles, but he has the resume and record to go from dark horse to contender in a hurry.

9. John Kasich, Governor of Ohio

Ohio Gov. John Kasich battled the public sector unions in his state with far less fanfare (and some would argue less success) than his Wisconsin counterpart. But unlike Gov. Scott Walker, Kasich is poised for a massive reelection, leading his Democratic rival by 19% in the latest poll. A landslide in a state as crucial as Ohio, site of the 2016 Republican National Convention, combined with a resume that includes success as governor and as a congressman puts Kasich in a strong position to make a run.

10. Scott Walker, Governor of Wisconsin

The governor of Wisconsin has become a folk hero to many in the conservative base for his stand against public sector unions in his state. The left’s attempt to recall Scott Walker not only backfired, but helped the governor build a national donor base. Walker will have real conservative governance to run on, as well as a record of being battle-tested against the left’s attack machine. The only problem facing Walker now is….he’s losing. In the three most recent polls Walker trails Democratic nominee Mary Burke. With the GOP poised to take the senate, Democrat donors are turning to Wisconsin as a place to salvage a victory. Walker’s difficulty getting reelected has robbed him of the chance to travel to early states and build on his momentum, and a loss in an otherwise GOP year would finish him as a national candidate.

Honorable Mention:  Mike Huckabee, Rick Santorum, Rick Perry, Rob Portman, Ben Carson, Bobby Jindal

 

by @ 10:06 am. Filed under 2016, 2016 Headlines

September 9, 2014

Poll Watch: CBS News/New York Times/YouGov Tennessee 2014 Senatorial Survey

CBS News/New York Times/YouGov Tennessee 2014 Senate Poll

  • Lamar Alexander (R) 47% (48%)
  • Gordon Ball (D) 32% (33%)
  • Other 10%
  • Not sure 11%

Survey of 1,056 likely voters was conducted August 18 – September 2, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 4.0 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted July 5-24, 2014 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 2:30 pm. Filed under 2014, Poll Watch

Poll Watch: CBS News/New York Times/YouGov Mississippi 2014 Senatorial Survey

CBS News/New York Times/YouGov Mississippi 2014 Senate Poll

  • Thad Cochran (R) 46% (47%)
  • Travis Childers (D) 31% (33%)
  • Other 9%
  • Not sure 15%

Survey of 976 likely voters was conducted August 18 – September 2, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 4.0 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted July 5-24, 2014 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 2:00 pm. Filed under 2014, Poll Watch

Poll Watch: CBS News/New York Times/YouGov West Virginia 2014 Senatorial Survey

CBS News/New York Times/YouGov West Virginia 2014 Senate Poll

  • Shelley Moore Capito (R) 55% (51%)
  • Natalie Tennant (D) 32% (43%)
  • Other 1%
  • Not sure 12%

Survey of 1,284 likely voters was conducted August 18 – September 2, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 4.0 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted July 5-24, 2014 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 1:30 pm. Filed under 2014, Poll Watch

Poll Watch: CBS News/New York Times/YouGov Delaware 2014 Senatorial Survey

  • Chris Coons (D) 48%
  • Kevin Wade (R) 35%
  • Other 1%
  • Not sure 16%

Survey of 697 likely voters was conducted August 18 – September 2, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 5.0 percentage points.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 1:00 pm. Filed under 2014, Poll Watch

Poll Watch: CBS News/New York Times/YouGov Montana 2014 Senatorial Survey

  • Steve Daines (R) 53%
  • Amanda Curtis (D) 35%
  • Other 1%
  • Not sure 11%

Survey of 684 likely voters was conducted August 18 – September 2, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 5.0 percentage points.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 12:30 pm. Filed under 2014, Poll Watch

Poll Watch: CBS News/New York Times/YouGov New Jersey 2014 Senatorial Survey

  • Cory Booker (D) 52% (50%)
  • Jeff Bell (R) 37% (43%)
  • Other 2%
  • Not sure 10%

Survey of 2,244 likely voters was conducted August 18 – September 2, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 3.0 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted July 5-24, 2014 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 12:00 pm. Filed under 2014, Poll Watch

Poll Watch: CBS News/New York Times/YouGov South Dakota 2014 Senatorial Survey

  • Mike Rounds (R) 43% (61%)
  • Rick Weiland (D) 29% (34%)
  • Larry Pressler (I) 6%
  • Other 1%
  • Not sure 21%

Survey of 526 likely voters was conducted August 18 – September 2, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 6.0 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted July 5-24, 2014 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 11:30 am. Filed under 2014, Poll Watch

Poll Watch: CBS News/New York Times/YouGov South Carolina 2014 Senatorial Survey

CBS News/New York Times/YouGov South Carolina 2014 Senate Poll

  • Lindsey Graham (R) 42% (51%)
  • Brad Hutto (D) 29% (38%)
  • Thomas Ravenel (I) 8%
  • Other 2%
  • Not sure 19%

Survey of 833 likely voters was conducted August 18 – September 2, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 5.0 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted July 5-24, 2014 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 11:00 am. Filed under 2014, Poll Watch

Poll Watch: CBS News/New York Times/YouGov Virginia 2014 Senatorial Survey

CBS News/New York Times/YouGov Virginia 2014 Senate Poll

  • Mark Warner (D) 51% (53%)
  • Ed Gillespie (R) 39% (43%)
  • Other 1%
  • Not sure 9%

Survey of 1,635 likely voters was conducted August 18 – September 2, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 3.0 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted July 5-24, 2014 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 10:30 am. Filed under 2014, Poll Watch

Poll Watch: CBS News/New York Times/YouGov Oregon 2014 Senatorial Survey

CBS News/New York Times/YouGov Oregon 2014 Senate Poll

  • Jeff Merkley (D) 51% (55%)
  • Monica Wehby (R) 39% (41%)
  • Other 1%
  • Not sure 9%

Survey of 1,541 likely voters was conducted August 18 – September 2, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 4.0 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted July 5-24, 2014 are in parentheses

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 10:00 am. Filed under 2014, Poll Watch

Poll Watch: CBS News/New York Times/YouGov Illinois 2014 Senatorial Survey

CBS News/New York Times/YouGov Illinois 2014 Senate Poll

  • Dick Durbin (D) 50% (51%)
  • Jim Oberweis (R) 38% (43%)
  • Other 1%
  • Not sure 10%

Survey of 4,363 likely voters was conducted August 18 – September 2, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 3.0 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted July 5-24, 2014 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 9:30 am. Filed under 2014, Poll Watch

Poll Watch: CBS News/New York Times/YouGov Minnesota 2014 Senatorial Survey

  • Al Franken (D) 49% (55%)
  • Mike McFadden (R) 41% (41%)
  • Other 1%
  • Not sure 9%

Survey of 3,607 likely voters was conducted August 18 – September 2, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 2.0 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted July 5-24, 2014 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 9:00 am. Filed under 2014, Poll Watch

September 8, 2014

The Home Stretch

The 2014 national mid-term elections have now entered the final turn of their campaigns. Less than two months remain, and the number of truly undecided voters is beginning to diminish with greater velocity.

A few weeks ago, some pundits asked aloud whether a potential “wave” election was in fact going to occur. I wrote at that time that “wave” elections rarely appear visible until the final weeks and days of a political cycle, but that signs do appear to indicate that one one is forming.

I have suggested that a clear pattern of increasingly vulnerable U.S. house and senate seats now held by Democrats was just such a sign. I also suggested that most of the notable “gaffes” of the 2014 cycle were happening in Democratic campaigns (unlike 2010 and 2014 when they occurred in Republican campaigns).

The latest example of the latter took place in Alaska where incumbent Democratic Senator Mike Begich, seemingly holding his own in a close race with Republican challenger Dan Sullivan, ran a spurious and self-destructive ad against his opponent, an ad which he had to quickly withdraw. But the damage has been done, and it has changed the race.

Earlier, Democratic Congressman Bruce Braley, his party’s senate nominee in Iowa, made absurd remarks about his Iowa GOP senate colleague Chuck Grassley, belittling the fact that Grassley was an Iowa farmer. Braley, at that point, was comfortably ahead of his eventual GOP opponent Joni Ernst. The race is still competitive, but Braley has not regained his momentum, and is now behind in most polls.

Appointed Montana Democratic Senator John Walsh had acquired incumbency in his contest against GOP Congressman Steve Daines, but revelations of earlier plagiarism forced Walsh to resign his nomination, and the race is no longer in play.

Incumbent Democratic Senator Mary Landrieu, who is part of a powerful family dynasty in Louisiana, had been narrowly leading her GOP opponent Bill Cassidy, a physician, but new revelations that she is spending more time at her residence in DC, and claims her parents’ home in Louisiana as her state residence, has not been helped by assertions that she is hailed by DC politicians as the District of Columbia’s “51st senator.” The race could end in a December run-off, but if Republicans win control without her, her claim of senate influence would disappear, and she would likely lose the run-off.

For a while, it looked that the Republicans were going to get by “gaffe-free,” but the senate race in Kansas has been turned upside down by allegations that GOP incumbent Pat Roberts spends little time in the state, and has run a weak re-election campaign. His Democratic opponent has just withdrawn from the race, leaving independent Greg Orman, a moderate businessman, as the suddenly new frontrunner. Roberts might still win, but if he does not, it might not be a net loss for the GOP since Orman has declared he will caucus with the party which has the majority in the new senate. Nevertheless, the unexpected political reversal is an embarrassment to the Republicans.

Another late-developing surprise have been polls in heavily liberal (or blue state) Illinois. Not surprisingly, controversial Democratic incumbent Governor Pat Quinn is trailing is GOP opponent, but no one I know ever suggested that incumbent Democratic Senator Dick Durbin was anything but a shoo-in for re-election. Durbin, however, is under 50%, and his unknown Republican opponent only 7 points behind, an unexpected political shock. Durbin will still probably win, but now has to take his race seriously in its final days.

Otherwise, several hotly contested senate races remain close, including in North Carolina, Arkansas, New Hampshire, Colorado and Michigan. Potentially close races exist in Minnesota, Oregon, Delaware and Virginia. Vulnerable GOP seats remain in Kentucky and Georgia. How these races “break” in the final days of the 2014 elections will signal whether or not a true “wave” election is about to happen.

Unless there are more and new gaffes by individual candidates, the month of September should be relatively quiet politically on its surface. Most of the undecideds, many of them independents, will likely make their minds in October as election day approaches. A second group of pivotal voters, disaffected Democrats, will also decide whether or not they will vote at all.

This election cycle and its consequential dimensions are not yet concluded.

——————————————————————————————
Copyright (c) by Barry Casselman. All rights reserved.

by @ 4:13 pm. Filed under 2014, Democrats, Predictions, Republican Party, Senate Races

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