April 8, 2015

America Take Action Web Ad: Rattlesnake

America Take Action is a PAC associated with Mike Huckabee and Huckabee is the one narrating this ad. It’s a foreign policy ad specifically dealing with Islamic terrorism.

by @ 8:01 am. Filed under 2016, Campaign Advertisements, Mike Huckabee

Poll Watch: Quinnipiac Pennsylvania 2016 Democratic Primary Survey

Quinnipiac Pennsylvania 2016 Democratic Primary Poll

  • Hillary Clinton 48% (54%)
  • Elizabeth Warren 15% (12%)
  • Joe Biden 13% (10%)
  • Martin O’Malley 1% (2%)
  • Bernie Sanders 1% (2%)
  • Jim Webb 1% (1%)

Survey of 415 registered Democrats was conducted March 17-28, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 4.8 percentage points. Click here to view crosstabs. Results from the poll conducted January 22 – February 1, 2015 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

Poll Watch: Quinnipiac Ohio 2016 Democratic Primary Survey

Quinnipiac Ohio 2016 Democratic Primary Poll

  • Hillary Clinton 54% (51%)
  • Elizabeth Warren 14% (14%)
  • Joe Biden 9% (7%)
  • Martin O’Malley 3% (1%)
  • Bernie Sanders 3% (5%)
  • Jim Webb 2% (0%)

Survey of 324 registered Democrats was conducted March 17-28, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 5.4 percentage points. Click here to view crosstabs. Results from the poll conducted January 22 – February 1, 2015 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 4:00 am. Filed under 2016, Bernie Sanders, Democrats, Hillary Clinton, Jim Webb, Joe Biden, Poll Watch

April 7, 2015

BREAKING: Rand Paul Announces Presidential Bid

Via The Washington Post:

“I am running for president to return our country to the principles of liberty and limited government,” Paul wrote on his official campaign Web site, hours ahead of an official campaign launch in Louisville.

Paul’s announcement makes him the second major Republican candidate to formally jump into the 2016 race, just the first of a string of campaign debuts slated for this month.

A strongly libertarian conservative, Paul first drew notice as a freshman senator for a nearly 13-hour filibuster he conducted in opposition to President Obama’s drone policy and the nomination of John O. Brennan to head the CIA.

Full story here.

by @ 9:56 am. Filed under 2016, Rand Paul

Poll Watch: Quinnipiac Ohio 2016 Republican Primary Survey

Quinnipiac Ohio 2016 GOP Primary Poll

  • John Kasich 20% (14%)
  • Ted Cruz 9% (6%)
  • Mike Huckabee 9% (7%)
  • Scott Walker 9% (11%)
  • Jeb Bush 8% (10%)
  • Ben Carson 8% (8%)
  • Rand Paul 7% (10%)
  • Chris Christie 5% (6%)
  • Marco Rubio 5% (4%)
  • Bobby Jindal 1% (1%)
  • Rick Perry 1% (1%)
  • Rick Santorum 1% (1%)
  • Lindsey Graham 0%

Survey of 404 registered Republicans was conducted March 17-28, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 4.9 percentage points. Click here to view crosstabs. Results from the poll conducted January 22 – February 1, 2015 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 8:00 am. Filed under 2016, John Kasich, Poll Watch, Republican Party

Poll Watch: Gravis Insights/Townhall (R) Nevada 2016 Democratic Caucus Survey

Gravis Insights/Townhall (R) Nevada 2016 Democratic Caucus Poll

  • Hillary Clinton 61% (58%)
  • Elizabeth Warren 15% (20%)
  • Bernie Sanders 7% (4%)
  • Joe Biden 3% (8%)
  • Al Gore 3%
  • Martin O’Malley 1% (0%)
  • Jim Webb 0% (3%)
  • Unsure 10% (7%)

Survey of 319 Democratic primary participants was conducted March 27, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 6 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted February 21-22, 2015 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

April 6, 2015

Poll Watch: Gravis Insights/Townhall (R) Nevada 2016 Presidential Survey

Gravis Insights/Townhall (R) Nevada 2016 Presidential Poll

  • Hillary Clinton (D) 49% (49%)
  • Scott Walker (R) 41% (43%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 50% (49%)
  • Rand Paul (R) 42% (42%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 48% (47%)
  • Chris Christie (R) 38% (38%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 48% (50%)
  • Jeb Bush (R) 38% (37%)

Survey of 850 registered voters was conducted March 27, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted February 21-22, 2015 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 10:00 am. Filed under 2016, Hillary Clinton, Poll Watch, Republican Party

Poll Watch: PPP (D) 2016 Republican Nomination Survey

PPP (D) 2016 GOP Nomination Poll

  • Scott Walker 20% [25%] (11%)
  • Jeb Bush 17% [17%] (17%)
  • Ted Cruz 16% [5%] (9%)
  • Ben Carson 10% [18%] (15%)
  • Rand Paul 10% [4%] (4%)
  • Mike Huckabee 6% [10%] (9%)
  • Marco Rubio 6% [3%]
  • Chris Christie 4% [5%] (7%)
  • Rick Perry 3% [3%] (2%)
  • Not sure 8% [11%] (5%)

Survey of 443 Republican primary voters was conducted March 26-31, 2015.  The margin of error is +/- 4.7 percentage points.  Political ideology: 36% [38%] (38%) Somewhat conservative; 34% [38%] (35%) Very conservative; 19% [17%] (21%) Moderate; 8% [6%] (5%) Somewhat liberal; 3% [2%] (1%) Very liberal. Results from the poll conducted February 20-22, 2015 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted January 22-25, 2015 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 8:00 am. Filed under 2016, Poll Watch, Republican Party, Scott Walker

Poll Watch: ABC News/Washington Post 2016 Democratic Nomination Survey

ABC News/Washington Post 2016 Democratic Nomination Poll

  • Hillary Clinton 66% (61%) {64%} [69%] (73%)
  • Joe Biden 12% (14%) {13%} [12%] (11%)
  • Elizabeth Warren 12% (13%) {11%} [7%] (9%)
  • Bernie Sanders 5% (4%) {1%} [2%]
  • Jim Webb 1% (3%) {2%} [1%]
  • Martin O’Malley 0% (0%) {1%} [2%]

Survey of registered Democrats and Democratic-leaning voters was conducted March 26-29, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 6 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted December 11-14, 2014 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted October 9-12, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted May 29 – June 1, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted January 20-23, 2014 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

April 5, 2015

Poll Watch: Washington Post/ABC News 2016 Presidential Survey

Washington Post/ABC News 2016 Presidential Poll

  • Hillary Clinton (D) 53% (54%) [53%]
  • Jeb Bush (R) 41% (41%) [41%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 54%
  • Scott Walker (R) 40%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 54%
  • Marco Rubio (R) 39%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 56%
  • Ted Cruz (R) 39%

Survey of registered voters was conducted March 26-29, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted January 12-15, 2015 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted May 29 – June 1, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted April 24-27, 2014 are in square brackets.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 4:00 am. Filed under 2016, Hillary Clinton, Poll Watch, Republican Party

April 4, 2015

Poll Watch: Boston Herald/Franklin Pierce University New Hampshire 2016 Democratic Primary Survey

Boston Herald/Franklin Pierce University New Hampshire 2016 Democratic Primary Poll

  • Hillary Clinton 47%
  • Elizabeth Warren 22%
  • Joe Biden 10%
  • Bernie Sanders 8%
  • Andrew Cuomo 4%
  • Martin O’Malley 1%
  • Jim Webb 0%
  • Other 3%
  • Unsure 5%

Survey of 417 likely Democratic primary voters was conducted March 22-25, 2015.  The margin of error is +/- 4.7 percentage points.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 10:00 am. Filed under 2016, Elizabeth Warren, Hillary Clinton, New Hampshire Primary, Poll Watch

Poll Watch: ABC News/Washington Post 2016 Republican Nomination Survey

ABC News/Washington Post 2016 GOP Nomination Poll

  • Jeb Bush 21% (14%) {13%} [12%] (18%)
  • Scott Walker 13% (7%) {2%} [5%]
  • Ted Cruz 12% (8%) {4%} [7%] (12%)
  • Mike Huckabee 8% (7%) {12%} [14%]
  • Rand Paul 8% (10%) {12%} [15%] (11%)
  • Marco Rubio 8% (7%) {8%} [6%] (10%)
  • Chris Christie 7% (7%) {8%} [9%] (14%)
  • Ben Carson 6% (8%) {7%}
  • Rick Santorum 2% (3%) {4%}
  • Carly Fiorina 1%
  • Lindsey Graham 1%
  • Bobby Jindal 1% (3%) {2%} [2%]
  • John Kasich 1% (2%) {2%} [1%]
  • Rick Perry 1% (5%) {6%} [5%]

Survey of registered Republican and GOP-leaning voters was conducted March 26-29, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 6 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted December 11-14, 2014 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted October 9-12, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted April 24-27, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted January 20-23, 2014 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 8:00 am. Filed under 2016, Jeb Bush, Poll Watch, Republican Party

Poll Watch: Fox News 2016 Democratic Nomination Survey

Fox News 2016 Democratic Nomination Poll

  • Hillary Clinton 61% [55%] (62%) {64%} [69%] (68%)
  • Joe Biden 12% [17%] (10%) {12%} [14%] (12%)
  • Elizabeth Warren 11% [12%] (12%) {9%} [6%] (7%)
  • Andrew Cuomo 3% [4%] (2%) {5%} [2%] (4%)
  • Bernie Sanders 3% [3%] (3%)
  • Martin O’Malley 2% [2%] (1%) {1%} [1%] (1%)
  • Jim Webb 1% [1%] (1%)

National survey of 397 registered Democrats was conducted March 29-31, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 5 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted January 25-27, 2015 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted December 7-9, 2014 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted July 20-22, 2014 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 13-15, 2014 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted December 14-16, 2013 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 4:00 am. Filed under 2016, Democrats, Elizabeth Warren, Hillary Clinton, Poll Watch

April 3, 2015

J.C. Watts to Endorse Rand Paul

Former Oklahoma Congressman J.C. Watts is set to endorse Rand Paul for President during Paul’s reported campaign announcement next week. The New York Times has more:

When Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky kicks off his campaign for president on Tuesday, one of the people who will endorse him and share the stage is former Representative J.C. Watts, one of the few black Republicans to have served in Congress.

Mr. Watts is expected to be a vocal surrogate for Mr. Paul, who has made clear he is trying to show he can broaden the Republican Party’s base to newer voters.

“Senator Paul has shown what I have always believed, a leader can be a strong economic and social conservative and yet be concerned about the least of these,” Mr. Watts, who retired from Congress in January 2003, said in a statement.

It’s an interesting endorsement and it will be interesting to see what impact it will have on the primary season.

by @ 11:53 am. Filed under 2016, Endorsements, Rand Paul

Poll Watch: Fox News 2016 Republican Nomination Survey

Fox News 2016 GOP Nomination Poll

  • Scott Walker 15% (9%) {4%} [5%] (6%)
  • Jeb Bush 12% (15%) {12%} [14%] (12%)
  • Ben Carson 11% (10%)
  • Ted Cruz 10% (4%) {9%} [7%] (12%)
  • Mike Huckabee 10% (13%)
  • Rand Paul 9% (13%) {11%} [14%] (11%)
  • Marco Rubio 8% (5%) {9%} [8%] (8%)
  • Chris Christie 4% (6%) {10%} [15%] (16%)
  • Rick Perry 3% (4%) {12%} [5%] (3%)
  • Donald Trump 3%
  • Bobby Jindal 2% (3%) {4%} [2%]
  • Rick Santorum 2% (2%) {3%} [5%] (3%)
  • Carly Fiorina 1%
  • John Kasich 1% (2%) {2%}
  • George Pataki 1%
  • Lindsey Graham 0% (1%)

National survey of 379 registered Republicans was conducted March 29-31, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 5 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted January 25-27, 2015 are in parentheses.Results from the poll conducted July 20-22, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted April 13-15, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted December 14-16, 2013 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 11:52 am. Filed under 2016, Poll Watch, Republican Party, Scott Walker

Poll Watch: Fox News 2016 Presidential Survey

  • Hillary Clinton (D) 45% [48%] (49%) {52%} [51%] (51%)
  • Jeb Bush (R) 45% [43%] (42%) {39%} [42%] (38%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 47% [47%] (51%) {52%} [51%]
  • Rand Paul (R) 45% [44%] (40%) {41%} [42%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 47%
  • Marco Rubio (R) 43%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 48% (52%)
  • Ted Cruz (R) 42% (36%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 48%
  • Scott Walker (R) 42%

National survey of 1,025 registered voters was conducted March 29-31, 2015 under the joint direction of Anderson Robbins Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R). The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted January 25-27, 2015 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted December 7-9, 2014 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted July 20-22, 2014 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 13-15, 2014 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 2-4, 2014 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 10:00 am. Filed under 2016, Hillary Clinton, Jeb Bush, Poll Watch, Republican Party

April 2, 2015

What Will the 2016 Electoral Map Look Like?

With the race for the White House in 2016 already taking shape, it’s time to start considering what the next electoral map will look like. In contrast to the mid-to-late 20th Century, when a very fluid electoral map seemed to exist, and when both a Democrat and a Republican could win 40-plus states just eight years apart, the present-day electoral map seems to be largely based on the template that settled into place during the 2000 election. That template seems to feature a country divided primarily on geographic and cultural grounds, with a blue Northeast and Far West, a red South and Interior West, a blue Upper Midwest and a red Lower Midwest, with shades of purple strewn throughout.

While political junkies dream of another template change, the template that has dominated the last four presidential elections is unlikely to be reorganized this time, as there has been no seismic cultural revolution or generational shift at home that would cause such a change. That means that if Republicans are going to win, they’re going to do so in the same way President Obama did in 2008 and 2012 — by adding to the Romney column a few states that they either barely lost in the previous election, or that are moving towards Republicans due to local issues or demographic changes within the state.

Using this logic, I have come up with three potential paths to a Republican electoral victory, using the three most likely Republican presidential nominees: Jeb Bush, Scott Walker, and Marco Rubio. Each would likely govern very similarly, but each is also a distinct and different candidate that would appeal to different cross-sections of the American electorate. While the differences would be minor, the playing field falls into place somewhat distinctly in each case. Each example also assumes that Democrats nominate Hillary Clinton for president, despite a probable strong challenge on the Left from Gov. Martin O’Malley.

1) Rubio v. Clinton:

RubioClinton

This is what I call the, “Morning in America” electoral strategy. It essentially builds on President Bush’s 2004 electoral strategy, by winning the areas of the country where there is growth, like those with lots of Hispanic voters, and with exurban whites looking for pro-growth policies. This assumes an optimistic Republican campaign headed by Sen. Rubio, and one that wins the Romney states from 2012, plus Rubio’s home state of Florida, and the trio of Colorado, Nevada, and New Mexico, last won by President Bush in 2004, and presumably open to a forward-looking Latino Republican nominee.

Rubio’s map gets to 270 electoral votes by adding Virginia to the Republican column, which nearly unseated popular Democratic Senator Mark Warner in 2014 due to its dissatisfaction with President Obama (probably largely due to the impact of Democratic defense cuts and ObamaCare requirements on Virginia’s budget and economy), and by picking up the state of Ohio, which gave Gov. Kasich a strong re-election victory in 2014. I’ve also given Sen. Rubio a win in Iowa, given its affinity for young conservative candidates like Sen. Joni Ernst. This would give Sen. Rubio 292 electoral votes to Mrs. Clinton’s 246.

Ohio is perhaps the biggest wildcard in this electoral strategy. The Clintons have always run well in the Midwest, and Republicans will be taking a gamble by assuming that the first Latino presidential nominee will be able to convince 40-year old female voters in the suburbs of Cleveland and Cincinnati that he feels their pain to a greater degree than Hillary Clinton. Still, betting on optimism is often a winning strategy, and just as many folks assumed that the war hero John McCain would trounce the post-racial Barack Obama in Ohio, there is no guarantee that the aging Hillary Clinton will best someone prepared to take the country forward in the Buckeye State.

2) Walker v. Clinton

WalkerClinton

This electoral map is best thought of as the “Missing White Voters” path to victory. Instead of focusing on the growing parts of the electorate, like growing demographics and growing geographic areas, this strategy aims to activate the sorts of disaffected voters who ought to be voting, but feel they no longer have a candidate who speaks to their issues, i.e., middle class white voters in the middle of the country.

As such, a Walker v. Clinton electoral map that led to a Republican victory would likely cede some of the Southwest to Mrs. Clinton, such as states like Nevada and New Mexico, and instead focus on winning the Romney states plus the solid South plus upping GOP numbers among white voters in the Midwest. A successful strategy taking this tack would likely see Florida and Virginia still go back into the Republican column, and would make big inroads into the Midwest, winning Ohio, Iowa, and Wisconsin. I’ve also given the Republicans a win in Colorado in this scenario, based on their strong showing in the state in 2014.

The end result is a Walker win with 291 electoral votes to Clinton’s 247. This strategy is somewhat risky, however, because it relies on a hypothetical bloc of voters who may or may not even exist. Are there really scores of blue collar voters in the Midwest just waiting for a Republican who shops at Kohl’s so that they can pull the lever for a GOP presidential candidate again? Or would it be wiser to try to build on Bush’s budding coalition from the 2000s? Or do Republicans need another strategy entirely, like…

3) Bush v. Clinton

BushClinton

I put together this map mostly for political junkie purposes — I don’t really think this electoral map is going to materialize. But I do think there are a number of Republicans inside the establishment and perhaps Beltway pundit class who view Jeb’s “Reform Conservatism” as a pathway to an electoral coalition that relies more on white collar and higher income voters, and that assumes that Mrs. Clinton is going to clean up among downscale whites in the Midwest. Hence, the Reformicon path to victory.

In this way forward, Republicans neither win the 40 percent of Hispanics that Team Rubio suggests the GOP needs in order to remain viable, nor do Republicans best Mrs. Clinton among blue collar whites in the Midwest, with whom she and her husband remain strong. Republicans instead accept that Mrs. Clinton will win much of the Southwest and Midwest and aim for an East Coast strategy, attempting to hold the Romney states while winning back Florida and Virginia, and adding Pennsylvania and New Hampshire to the Republican column, both of which Romney lost by just over 5 points. This strategy presumes that Bush as the nominee goes full squish on certain cultural issues, possibly coming out in favor of same-sex marriage.

It will never happen, but what other logic does the Bush team have at this point for hoping to defeat Mrs. Clinton? This strategy would assume that there are lots of white collar voters in Northern Virginia and Eastern Pennsylvania that want a more muscular foreign policy due to the looming threats in the Middle East, and who don’t really want higher taxes or greater government spending now that the economy seems to be back on track. Essentially, this would be the Giuliani/Christie electoral map, only with Jeb in the driver’s seat. And if Pat Toomey and Kelly Ayotte can win elections for national office in the light blue states of the Northeast, then why not Jeb Bush? The final tally would be Bush 281, Clinton 257.

Ultimately, every time the White House turns over, there are going to be some surprises, and at this point, predictions are nothing more than navel gazing. Still, the GOP does have to decide just where it thinks the votes are for a new Republican president as it charts its course forward to November of 2016.

by @ 3:55 pm. Filed under 2016

Poll Watch: Gravis Insights/Townhall (R) South Carolina 2016 Republican Primary Survey

  • Scott Walker 17% (17%) {11%} [5%] (2.3%)
  • Jeb Bush 16% (19%) {18%} [22%] (16.0%)
  • Ted Cruz 13% (2%) {9%} [8%] (11.1%)
  • Lindsey Graham 9% (12%)
  • Mike Huckabee 7% (10%) {11%} [19%] (15.8%)  
  • Chris Christie 6% (8%) {8%} [12%] (16.6%)
  • Marco Rubio 6% (6%) {9%} [6%] (7.2%)
  • Rand Paul 5% (6%) {8%} [8%] (9.7%)
  • Rick Santorum 2% (2%) {4%} [2%] (2.8%)
  • Carly Fiorina 2% (2%)
  • Unsure 18% (16%) {17%} [19%] (18.5%)

Survey of 1,371 registered GOP primary voters (899 Republicans and 472 Independents) was conducted March 26-27, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted February 24-25, 2015 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted January 21-22, 2015 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted March 6-7, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted November 30 – December 2, 2013 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 8:00 am. Filed under 2016, Poll Watch, Republican Party, Scott Walker

Poll Watch: Gravis Insights/Townhall (R) Nevada 2016 Republican Caucus Survey

  • Ted Cruz 18% (6%)
  • Scott Walker 18% (27%)
  • Jeb Bush 16% (19%)
  • Marco Rubio 7% (4%)
  • Ben Carson 6%
  • Rand Paul 5% (3%)
  • Chris Christie 4% (8%)
  • Mike Huckabee 4% (6%)
  • Rick Santorum 2% (4%)
  • Carly Fiorina 1%
  • Unsure 20% (16%)

Survey of 433 Republican primary participants was conducted March 27, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 5 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted February 21-22, 2015 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 4:00 am. Filed under Poll Watch, Republican Party, Scott Walker, Ted Cruz

April 1, 2015

The Cost of Judicial Tyranny

My position on gay marriage is somewhat odd to most people. From the beginning I have been simultaneously unabashedly in favor of allowing gay marriage, and against the method that it has been forced upon us. The method being through the acts of the court. I find the legal reasoning as to why gay marriage must be legalized to be tenuous at best. It’s unique in that it confers 14th Amendment rights on a desire to do something.

Lacking a legitimate legal argument, it was my belief that the proper avenue for gay marriage should have been through state legislatures or possibly ballot initiatives (I’m largely not a fan of those, but that is another matter).

This did not happen. Legal recognition of gay marriage was very rarely done through a democratic republic process. Instead the judiciary took it upon itself, particularly after Justice Kennedy’s majority opinion in United States v. Windsor striking down part of the Defense of Marriage Act, to force recognition of gay marriage in all but a handful of states. A process that will likely be complete by the end of summer.

In dissent, Justice Scalia wrote the following:

Some will rejoice in today’s decision, and some will despair at it; that is the nature of a controversy that matters so much to so many. But the Court has cheated both sides, robbing the winners of an honest victory, and the losers of the peace that comes from a fair defeat.

This is quite true, and is at the heart of the problem of judicial activism. Gay marriage, as an issue, was destined to be won either by judicial fiat or through legislation. It is simply a case of the moral universe inevitably bending towards justice. We are a good nation, and we would see the light. And, indeed, the suddenness of change in public opinion in the past decade has been almost catastrophic in its complete overturning of values.

But if it were done through legislation, it would not be imposed on the people. Clear thinkers could consider everything that is entailed in creating the new law. Perhaps I give state legislatures too much credit, but it is supposed to be that they debate the issue.

During such debates, the issue of the cake bakers being forced to participate in these marriage ceremonies that violate their religion or face penalties could have been brought up and resolved in order to placate what are their opponents’ legitimate concerns. This is how lawmaking should be done.

Again, perhaps I’m naïve. We certainly live in a partisan time. The thing is, I believe that the courts’ meddling has helped create such a binary process. Particularly among the liberals on social issues. They are afraid to give even an inch of accommodation because they believe that the courts given them the power to win completely on any social issue that matters to them.

If the courts had stayed out, with the exception of cases where the Constitution is clearly in breach, then we would be in a country where people felt then need to persuade. Not steamroll their ideology with perfect purity. Their neighbors fears would need to be dealt with and assuaged before moving forward.

And even if concerns existed after the legislation had gone through, at least there would be some respect for the process. That the legislatures do, indeed, have a voice in how these matters are handled and can be called upon to balance the evolving belief that gays should have the same freedom to marry and providing for tolerance of those whose religion tells them they should not participate.

But instead it’s black and white. Statehouses are the enemies of gay rights advocates. They did not provide them their newfound freedom. Instead, they fear that they are taking away some freedom only recently wrested by the noble court. Democracy on the issue does not receive an ounce of sympathy. And, indeed, is easy to demagogue with false analogies to the segregated south (no gays will suddenly be refused service at restaurants).

Gay advocates would have won their war without the aid of an overactive judiciary. By imposing their person beliefs into their rulings, judges have again done damage to their country. We are all winners or losers. But, in the end, the belief that we should work through our issues and come to a pleasant middle ground has lost again. A result unfortunate enough in this trivial (if representative of larger issues) matter.

Unfortunately, the damage is not limited to this one issue.

by @ 10:00 am. Filed under Opinion

Poll Watch: Boston Herald/Franklin Pierce University New Hampshire 2016 Republican Primary Survey

Boston Herald/Franklin Pierce University New Hampshire 2016 GOP Primary Poll

  • Jeb Bush 15%
  • Scott Walker 15%
  • Rand Paul 13%
  • Chris Christie 10%
  • Ted Cruz 9%
  • Mike Huckabee 7%
  • Ben Carson 4%
  • Marco Rubio 4%
  • Rick Perry 2%
  • Rick Santorum 2%
  • John Bolton 1%
  • Bobby Jindal 1%
  • John Kasich 1%
  • Carly Fiorina 0%
  • Lindsey Graham 0%
  • George Pataki 0%
  • Other 5%
  • Unsure 10%

Survey of 429 likely Republican primary voters was conducted March 22-25, 2015.  The margin of error is +/- 4.7 percentage points.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 8:00 am. Filed under 2016, Jeb Bush, New Hampshire Primary, Poll Watch, Republican Party, Scott Walker

Poll Watch: Quinnipiac Pennsylvania 2016 Presidential Survey

  • Rand Paul (R) 45% {34%} [37%] (38%) {40%} [37%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 44% {53%} [51%] (53%) {52%} [52%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 46%
  • Marco Rubio (R) 42%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 45% {50%} [45%] (46%) {44%} (47%)
  • Chris Christie (R) 40% {39%} [41%] (41%) {43%} (42%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 46%
  • Scott Walker (R) 41%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 46% {50%} [51%] (53%) {52%}
  • Jeb Bush (R) 40% {35%} [35%] (36%) {36%}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 47% {54%} [51%]
  • Mike Huckabee (R) 41% {34%} [36%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 48% (54%) {54%}
  • Ted Cruz (R) 39% (34%) {36%}
Survey of 1,036 Pennsylvania voters was conducted March 17-28, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points.  Party ID: 31% {36%} [38%] (35%) {36%} [39%] (37%) Democrat; 31% {28%} [30%] (32%) {30%} [33%] (34%) Republican; 31% {28%} [27%] (26%) {27%} [21%] (24%) Independent; 7% {8%} [6%] (7%) {7%} [7%] (5%) Other/Don’t know.  Click here to view crosstabs. Results from the poll conducted January 22 – February 1, 2015 are in curly brackets.Results from the poll conducted May 29 – June 2, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted February 19-24, 2014 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted December 11-16, 2013 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 30 – June 4, 2013 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 6-11, 2013 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 4:00 am. Filed under 2016, Hillary Clinton, Poll Watch, Rand Paul, Republican Party

March 31, 2015

Poll Watch: Quinnipiac Ohio 2016 Presidential Survey

  • Hillary Clinton (D) 46% {48%} [46%] (49%) {51%} [50%] (47%)
  • Rand Paul (R) 41% {36%} [42%] (41%) {38%} [40%] (44%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 45% {47%} [46%] (46%) {49%} [42%] (42%)
  • Chris Christie (R) 39% {34%} [37%] (38%) {36%} [41%] (42%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 47% (47%) {50%} [48%]
  • Marco Rubio (R) 38% (40%) {36%} [39%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 47% {47%} [48%] (48%) {51%} [50%]
  • Jeb Bush (R) 38% {36%} [37%] (39%) {36%} [37%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 48% (51%) {51%} [50%]
  • Ted Cruz (R) 38% (37%) {34%} [35%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 49% {49%} (49%)
  • Mike Huckabee (R) 39% {34%} (41%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 49%
  • Scott Walker (R) 38%

Survey of 1,077 Ohio voters was conducted March 17-28, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points. Party ID: 28% {28%} [32%] (29%) {32%} [31%] (29%) Democrat; 27% {26%} [28%] (29%) {28%} [26%] (28%) Republican; 35% {32%} [35%] (35%) {33%} [36%] (35%) Independent; 9% {13%} [6%] (8%) {7%} [7%] (7%) Other. Click here to view crosstabs. Results from the poll conducted January 22 – February 1, 2015 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted July 24-28, 2014 are in square brackets.Results from the poll conducted May 7-12, 2014 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted February 12-17, 2014 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 19-24, 2013 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted June 18-23, 2013 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 3:08 pm. Filed under 2016, Hillary Clinton, Poll Watch, Republican Party

Poll Watch: Quinnipiac Florida 2016 Presidential Survey

Quinnipiac Florida 2016 Presidential Poll

  • Jeb Bush (R) 45% (43%) {42%} [41%] (43%) {45%} [43%] (40%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 42% (44%) {49%} [49%] (49%) {47%} [50%] (51%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 46% (49%) {53%} [52%] (51%) {50%} [53%] (52%)
  • Marco Rubio (R) 44% (39%) {39%} [40%] (41%) {43%} [41%] (41%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 46% (50%) {53%} [55%] (53%) {51%}
  • Rand Paul (R) 43% (38%) {37%} [37%] (38%) {41%}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 44% (51%) {54%} [52%] (51%) {45%}
  • Chris Christie (R) 39% (33%) {33%} [34%] (35%) {41%}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 46%
  • Scott Walker (R) 40%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 48% (51%) [53%]
  • Mike Huckabee (R) 40% (34%) [35%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 48% (57%) (54%) {52%}
  • Ted Cruz (R) 39% (31%) (34%) {36%}

Survey of 1,087 Florida voters was conducted March 17-28, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points. Party ID: 32% (33%) {31%} [31%] (30%) {32%} [34%] (35%) Democrat; 29% (28%) {28%} [25%] (27%) {29%} [28%] (27%) Republican; 30% (30%) {32%} [34%] (35%) {32%} [30%] (31%) Independent; 9% (8%) {9%} [11%] (7%) {7%} [8%] (7%) Other. Click here to view crosstabs. Results from the poll conducted January 22 – February 1, 2015 are in parentheses.Results from the poll conducted July 17-21, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted April 23-28, 2014 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 22-27, 2014 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted November 12-17, 2013 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted June 11-16, 2013 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted March 13-18, 2013 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 11:07 am. Filed under 2016, Hillary Clinton, Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, Poll Watch, Republican Party

Poll Watch: Quinnipiac New York 2016 Presidential Survey

Quinnipiac New York 2016 Presidential Poll

  • Hillary Clinton (D) 54% (57%) {54%} [58%] (59%)
  • Chris Christie (R) 34% (31%) {34%} [31%] (32%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 58%
  • Marco Rubio (R) 31%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 58%
  • Scott Walker (R) 31%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 58% (60%) {60%}
  • Jeb Bush (R) 30% (29%) {29%}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 59% (61%) {61%}
  • Rand Paul (R) 31% (26%) {30%}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 58%
  • Mike Huckabee (R) 29%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 60%
  • Ted Cruz (R) 27%

Survey of 1,228 New York State voters was conducted March 11-16, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 2.8 percentage points. Party ID: 39% (43%) {40%} [40%] (44%) Democrat; 20% (19%) {22%} [21%] (19%) Republican; 31% (29%) {28%} [32%] (32%) Independent. Results from the poll conducted December 17-21, 2014 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted August 14-17, 2014 are in curly brackets.Results from the poll conducted February 6-10, 2014 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 11-17, 2013 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 8:00 am. Filed under 2016, Hillary Clinton, Poll Watch, Republican Party

Poll Watch: Emerson College Massachusetts 2016 Republican Primary Survey

Emerson College Massachusetts 2016 GOP Primary Poll

  • Jeb Bush 18.7%
  • Scott Walker 18.5%
  • Ben Carson 12.5%
  • Rand Paul 7.3%
  • Chris Christie 5.9%
  • Ted Cruz 5.6%
  • Mike Huckabee 3.3%

Survey of 216 Republican primary voters was conducted March 14-19, 2015.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 4:00 am. Filed under 2016, Jeb Bush, Republican Party, Scott Walker

March 30, 2015

Poll Watch: Emerson College Massachusetts 2016 Democratic Primary Survey

Emerson College Massachusetts 2016 Democratic Primary Poll

  • Hillary Clinton 42.6%
  • Elizabeth Warren 16.2%
  • Joe Biden 10.2%
  • Bernie Sanders 5.8%
  • Martin O’Malley 1.7%

Survey of 430 Democratic primary voters was conducted March 14-19, 2015.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 11:04 am. Filed under 2016, Democrats, Elizabeth Warren, Hillary Clinton, Poll Watch

Poll Watch: Quinnipiac New York 2016 Republican Primary Survey

Quinnipiac New York 2016 GOP Primary Poll

  • Jeb Bush 13%
  • Scott Walker 13%
  • Chris Christie 12%
  • Marco Rubio 10%
  • Rand Paul 8%
  • George Pataki 6%
  • Ben Carson 6%  
  • Ted Cruz 3%
  • Mike Huckabee 3%
  • Bobby Jindal 1%
  • Rick Perry 1%
  • John Kasich 1%
  • Rick Santorum 1%
  • Lindsey Graham 0%

Survey of 327 registered Republicans was conducted March 11-16, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 5.4 percentage points.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 4:00 am. Filed under 2016, Jeb Bush, Poll Watch, Republican Party, Scott Walker

March 29, 2015

Poll Watch: Emerson College Massachusetts 2016 Presidential Survey

Emerson College Massachusetts 2016 Presidential Poll

  • Hillary Clinton (D) 58.0%
  • Scott Walker (R) 38.0%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 58.6%
  • Jeb Bush (R) 38.0%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 60.7%
  • Rand Paul (R) 36.0%

Survey of 798 adults was conducted March 14-19, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 3.4 percentage points.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 4:00 am. Filed under 2016, Hillary Clinton, Poll Watch, Republican Party

March 28, 2015

Poll Watch: PPP (D) Florida 2016 Democratic Presidential Primary Survey

PPP (D) Florida 2016 Democratic Presidential Primary Poll

  • Hillary Clinton 58% [66%] (62%) {65%} [61%] (67%)
  • Joe Biden 14% [7%] (12%) {15%} [14%] (11%)
  • Elizabeth Warren 10% [8%] (3%) {4%} [1%] (2%)
  • Bernie Sanders 3%
  • Martin O’Malley 2% [0%] (1%) {0%} [3%] (0%)
  • Jim Webb 1%
  • Someone else/Undecided 11% [9%] (14%) {11%} [9%] (11%)

Survey of 371 Democratic primary voters was conducted March 19-22, 2015.  The margin of error is +/- 5.1 percentage points.  Political ideology: 32% [27%] (42%) {39%} [33%] (41%) Moderate; 30% [42%] (28%) {28%} [30%] (27%) Somewhat liberal; 22% [17%](18%) {18%} [22%] (16%) Very liberal; 11% [10%] (9%) {11%} [10%] (12%) Somewhat conservative; 5% [5%] (3%) {3%} [5%] (4%) Very conservative.  Results from the poll conducted June 6-9, 2014 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 15-18, 2013 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted January 11-13, 2013 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 3-4, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 31 – September 2, 2012 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 4:00 am. Filed under 2016, Democrats, Hillary Clinton, Poll Watch

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