February 25, 2015

Rubio is Running and Will be a Powerful Contender – But Will Republicans Recognize It?

If the New York Times is to be believed, Senator Marco Rubio has begun telling donors he will be running for President, and will likely announce his candidacy in April.

This could well be a defining moment for a Republican field that is taking longer than expected to take shape. Mitt Romney bowing out of the race opened the door for the candidate many presumed to be the obvious frontrunner: Jeb Bush. Governor Bush is almost certainly running, having spent the past several weeks assembling an all-star fundraising team and enjoying the wide support of the Republican establishment. His behind-the-scenes shock-and-awe strategy is designed to convince others not to run. The grassroots candidates such as Ted Cruz, Ben Carson, Rick Perry, and Rand Paul remain largely unswayed by this show of strength, of course, operating fully in the realm of ideology rather than pragmatism, as is their modus operandi. (Not that there’s anything wrong with that.) Potential candidates on the other side of the equation, however, have a difficult calculation to make now: can they legitimately pose a threat to a Bush candidacy? Can they sway establishment support away from Governor Bush in an atmosphere where the establishment possesses a desire to act more monolithically than ever before?

For some, the answer is becoming clearer, and it’s not what they hoped. Most politicos, for instance, would now consider it a surprise if Governor Chris Christie chose to throw his hat in the ring — quite the change from a year ago. Others like Paul Ryan, Susana Martinez, and Rob Portman have also chosen to bow out.

The only legitimate challenger Jeb Bush seems to have at this early stage in the game is Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker, who at first blush seems to be a fantastic figure to bridge the gap between the Tea Party and the establishment wings of the party. Both groups seem open to at least giving Governor Walker a chance to impress them; what remains to be seen is whether he can meet their expectations (this pundit would personally be surprised if he did).

That leaves a large group of potential candidates who are stuck running the numbers on the backs of cocktail napkins these days. Governors John Kasich and Mike Pence both remain noncommittal, saying they’ll make a decision later in the spring or early summer. If Governor Bush wasn’t headlining this concert, we’d have to believe both men would already be up on stage for a sound check.

Likewise, Governor Mike Huckabee is trying to balance his fundraising ability against the financial realities of Governor Bush’s machine. He’s using his PAC in a way few do any longer: to actually test the water. Governor Huckabee has said it will be “months” before he makes his decision. (Meanwhile, he’s embarking on another book tour that looks an awful lot like the separate book tours he and Governor Palin took during the lead up to the last primary.) Similarly, Governor Bobby Jindal has only narrowed the timeline for his decision down to “the first half” of 2015, potentially leaving the door open for the next four months.

Bringing this back to Senator Rubio, then: this means the Florida Senator is now the first candidate who has looked at the bottom line on the back of that napkin and decided it was worth it to challenge the two-headed Bush/Walker frontrunner. Make no mistake: this could not have been an easy decision for Rubio. In fact, he had more to lose with this decision than any other potential candidate: like Rand Paul, he had to choose between running for President or running for re-election in the Senate. Unlike Rand Paul, Rubio was (and is) being heavily courted by the establishment to keep his Senate seat. Giving up his seat at this stage would mean two things: one, the potential end of his bright career with massive potential in national GOP politics; and two, the potential alienation of the establishment.

At first blush, Marco Rubio and the last GOP nominee, Mitt Romney, seem to have little in common. One is a young, charismatic Senator and the other an aging, wooden Governor. But when Senator Rubio throws his hat in the ring this April, the two will share this vitally important distinction: neither will have the full support of their party, and that will make winning the general election an uphill battle.

Governor Romney was never part of the Republican establishment, only earning their begrudging support in 2012 by default because none of their chosen candidates (Mitch Daniels, Haley Barbourl, John Thune, Jeb Bush, et al) ran. And he was never part of the Republican grassroots, either, despite (and because of) his attempt to remake his record in the 2008 primary. This half-hearted support from Republicans can easily be pointed to as the reason Romney lost the election. Despite winning independent voters by the largest margin for a Republican candidate in recent history — an unbelievable five percent margin over President Barack Obama, and up to a ten percent margin in some swing states like Ohio! (Obama won independents by 8% in 2008, Kerry won them by 1% in 2004, Bush won them by 1% in 2000, and Clinton won them by 8% in 1996 and 6% in 1992) — Romney still lost the election. Why? Because of depressed Republican turnout. Republican turnout as a percentage of the electorate in 2012 matched a recent historical low. In other words, Republicans have nobody but themselves to blame for Obama’s second term in the Oval Office.

Could Senator Rubio find himself in the same boat this time around? He certainly has the same kind of appeal to independents Governor Romney had, and a heaping serving of charisma which the Massachusetts Governor could only dream of. His youth, positive demeanor and vision, and his Hispanic background would all be a massive boon for a party who is desperately trying to expand their identity past the stereotype of angry old white men. All one has to do is picture national campaign ads with Senator Rubio looking directly into the camera and speaking fluent Spanish to understand how powerful his candidacy could be for the Republican Party.

And yet, Republicans are, at this stage, more than quick to attack Rubio and tear him to shreds. The establishment doesn’t like him because he’s not Jeb Bush. The base doesn’t like him because of his break with conservative orthodoxy on immigration (despite the fact that conservative orthodoxy on the issue is both wildly impractical and one of the main reasons the GOP has an identity issue to begin with). And so, should Senator Rubio end up with the nomination (and there is a decently clear path for him to do so — more on that in a later column), he would find himself in the same place as Governor Romney four years ago: with an incredible chance to win the White House, if the Republican Party can get their act together.

by @ 4:00 am. Filed under 2016, Marco Rubio, Republican Party

February 23, 2015

Poll Watch: Field Research California 2016 Republican Primary Survey

Field Research California 2016 GOP Primary Poll

  • Scott Walker 18%
  • Jeb Bush 16%
  • Rand Paul 10%
  • Ben Carson 8%
  • Marco Rubio 7%
  • Mike Huckabee 5%
  • Ted Cruz 5%
  • Rick Perry 4%
  • Chris Christie 3%
  • Bobby Jindal 1%
  • Lindsey Graham 1%
  • Other 3%
  • Undecided 19%

Survey of 237 likely GOP primary voters was conducted January 26 – February 16, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 5.4 percentage points.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 4:00 am. Filed under 2016, Poll Watch, Republican Party, Scott Walker

February 20, 2015

Poll Watch: PPP (D) South Carolina 2016 Presidential Survey

  • Mike Huckabee (R) 49%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 41%
  • Ben Carson (R) 48%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 41%
  • Jeb Bush (R) 49%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 42%
  • Rick Perry (R) 48%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 43%
  • Scott Walker (R) 46%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 42%
  • Ted Cruz (R) 46%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 43%
  • Chris Christie (R) 43%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 41%
  • Lindsey Graham (R) 45%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 43%
  • Rand Paul (R) 45%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 43%
  • Jeb Bush (R) 50%
  • Elizabeth Warren (D) 34%
  • Jeb Bush (R) 53%
  • Joe Biden (D) 36%

Survey of 868 registered South Carolina voters was conducted February 12-15, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 3.3 percentage points. Party ID: 44% Republican; 32% Democrat; 25% Independent/Other. Ideology: 33% Moderate; 27% Somewhat conservative; 19% Very conservative; 13% Somewhat liberal; 9% Very liberal.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

Poll Watch: PPP (D) South Carolina 2016 Republican Primary Survey

  • Jeb Bush 19%
  • Scott Walker 18%
  • Lindsey Graham 13%
  • Ben Carson 13% 
  • Mike Huckabee 12% 
  • Chris Christie 7%
  • Rand Paul 5%
  • Ted Cruz 3% 
  • Rick Perry 3%
  • Someone else/Not sure 6%

Survey of 525 GOP primary voters was conducted February 12-15, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 4.3 percentage points. Ideology: 38% Somewhat conservative; 33% Very conservative; 23% Moderate; 5% Somewhat liberal; 2% Very liberal.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 10:07 am. Filed under 2016, Jeb Bush, Poll Watch, Republican Party

Poll Watch: Quinnipiac Virginia 2016 Presidential Survey

  • Hillary Clinton (D) 42% (47%)
  • Jeb Bush (R) 42% (39%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 44% (48%) {49%} (51%)
  • Rand Paul (R) 42% (42%) {40%} (37%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 44% (49%)
  • Mike Huckabee (R) 41% (41%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 44% (45%) {42%} [46%] (45%)
  • Chris Christie (R) 39% (41%) {41%} [37%] (40%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 45%
  • Scott Walker (R) 40%

Survey of 1,074 Virginia voters was conducted February 5-15, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points.  Party ID: 30% (33%) {31%} [32%] (31%) Democrat; 26% (24%) {26%} [22%] (26%) Republican; 34% (35%) {35%} [37%] (36%) Independent; 10% (8%) {9%} [10%] (8%) Other/Don’t know. Gender: 53% (54%) {50%} [52%] (53%) Female; 47% (46%) {50%} [48%] (47%) Male.  Race: 71% (72%) {70%} [69%] (71%) White; 18% (17%) {16%} [17%] (17%) Black; 3% (3%) {4%} [4%] (4%) Hispanic; 8% (8%) {10%} [10%] (9%) Other/Don’t know. Results from the poll conducted March 19-24, 2014 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted September 9-15, 2013 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 14-19, 2013 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 11-15, 2013 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 4:00 am. Filed under 2016, Hillary Clinton, Poll Watch, Republican Party

February 19, 2015

Poll Watch: Gravis Marketing/Townhall (R) Iowa 2016 Presidential Survey

  • Hillary Clinton (D) 44%
  • Rand Paul (R) 39%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 45%
  • Mike Huckabee (R) 40%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 43% [42.6%] (41%)
  • Jeb Bush (R) 37% [43.5%] (41%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 47%
  • Scott Walker (R) 41%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 45%
  • Chris Christie (R) 35%

Survey of 969 registered Iowa voters was conducted February 12-13, 2015  The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted October 20-21, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted September 29-30, 2014 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 5:30 pm. Filed under 2016, Hillary Clinton, Poll Watch, Republican Party

Poll Watch: CNN/ORC 2016 Republican Nomination Survey

CNN/ORC 2016 GOP Nomination Poll

  • Mike Huckabee 17% {6%} [10%] (12%) {11%} [10%] (10%) {14%}
  • Jeb Bush 12% {23%} [14%] (8%) {12%} [13%] (9%) {10%} [6%] (10%)
  • Rand Paul 11% {6%} [8%] (12%) {14%} [13%] (16%) {13%} [13%] (13%)
  • Scott Walker 11% {4%} [5%] (5%) {5%} [7%]
  • Ben Carson 9% {7%} [11%]
  • Chris Christie 7% {13%} [9%] (13%) {8%} [9%] (8%) {10%} [24%] (17%)
  • Marco Rubio 6% {5%} [3%] (6%) {8%} [6%] (5%) {9%} [9%] (9%)
  • Ted Cruz 3% {4%} [7%] (8%) {9%} [7%] (8%) {8%} [10%] (7%)
  • John Kasich 2% {3%} [3%]
  • Rick Perry 2% {4%} [5%] (11%) {6%} [8%] (11%) {8%} [7%] (6%)
  • Rick Santorum 2% {2%} [2%] (3%) {4%} [2%] (3%) {4%} [6%] (5%)
  • Carly Fiorina 1%
  • Lindsey Graham 1%
  • Bobby Jindal 1% {4%} [1%]

Survey of 436 Republicans and GOP-leaning Independents was conducted February 12-15, 2015.  The margin of error is +/- 4.5 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted December 18-21, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted November 21-23, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted July 18-20, 2014 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted May 29 – June 1, 2014 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 2-4, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted March 7-9, 2014 are in parentheses.   Results from the poll conducted January 31 – February 2, 2014 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 18-20, 2013 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 6-8, 2013 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 4:00 am. Filed under 2016, Mike Huckabee, Poll Watch, Republican Party

February 18, 2015

Aggregated Power Rankings

I came across a National Journal ‘power ranking’ of Republican candidates yesterday, and it struck me how many of them I’ve seen. Americans seem to love Top 10 lists (I’ve already seen several for next year’s college football season).

Anyway, it seemed that it might be fun to gather several of them together and aggregate the rankings. The results are below. But first, a few notes:

1. Don’t take them too seriously – neither the components, nor the aggregate.
2. I assembled them by means of typing “Republican presidential power rankings, 2016” (or something like that), into Google, and using whatever credible or semi-credible sources popped up. Oh, and Daily Kos, too, just for giggles (though DK didn’t differ that much from the rest, other than giving Ben Carson by far his highest ranking – good to know somebody is taking the good doctor seriously).
3. Where lists included more than ten, I only listed the top ten.
4. I gave candidates 11 points for a first, 10 for second, etc. If they weren’t in the top ten (or not listed at all), they got a zero.
5. Larry Sabato’s list was in tiers. I used the top three tiers (nine candidates total), and considered those on a given tier to be tied – e.g., the first tier was Bush and Walker, so they each got 10.5.
6. The Fox News  and Max Twain rankings were done before Mitt Romney withdrew, and they both have Romney first – I used the remainder of their list.*

There’s only a little variation at the top of the lists, which means only that a CW has formed that Bush and Walker are out front, for now.

rankings

Sources: National Journal, Daily Kos, Red State, Center for Politics, Fox News, Race42016

* Please, please, please do not use this as an excuse to turn the comment section into a bunch of posts about how awesomely awesome Romney is and how he’d mop up the floor with the rest of these guys, etc. We’ve heard it all a gazillion times. Also, please x3 don’t respond to any such posts by telling us how horribly horrible Romney is, he’s such a stiff, etc – we’ve heard that a gazillion times, too. This is not about Romney.

by @ 7:39 pm. Filed under 2016, Republican Party

February 16, 2015

Poll Watch: Christopher Newport University Virginia 2016 Democratic Primary Survey

CNU Virginia 2016 Democratic Presidential Primary Poll

  • Hillary Clinton 65% (66%)
  • Jim Webb 10%
  • Joe Biden 8% (19%)
  • Elizabeth Warren 8% (7%) 
  • Deval Patrick 2%
  • Bernie Sanders 2% 
  • Andrew Cuomo 1%
  • Martin O’Malley 1%
  • Someone else 1%
  • Undecided 2% (9%)

Survey of registered Democrats and Democratic-leaning Independent voters was conducted January 30 – February 10, 2015. Results from the poll conducted February 23-28, 2014 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 6:05 pm. Filed under 2016, Hillary Clinton, Poll Watch, Republican Party

Poll Watch: NBC News/Marist Early State 2016 Republican Primary/Caucus Surveys

NBC News/Marist Iowa 2016 GOP Caucus Poll

  • Mike Huckabee 17%
  • Jeb Bush 16% (12%)
  • Scott Walker 15% (5%)
  • Chris Christie 9% (8%)
  • Rand Paul 7% (12%)
  • Marco Rubio 6% (7%)
  • Ben Carson 6%
  • Rick Santorum 5% (9%)
  • Rick Perry 4% (7%)
  • Ted Cruz 2% (7%)
  • Lindsey Graham 1%
  • Undecided 14% (20%)

Survey of 320 potential GOP caucus-goers was conducted February 3-10, 2015.  The margin of error is +/- 5.5 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted July 7-13, 2014 are in parentheses.

NBC News/Marist New Hampshire 2016 GOP Primary Poll

  • Jeb Bush 18% (10%)
  • Scott Walker 15% (6%)
  • Rand Paul 14% (14%)
  • Chris Christie 13% (13%)
  • Mike Huckabee 7%
  • Ben Carson 7%
  • Ted Cruz 6% (9%)
  • Marco Rubio 6% (7%)
  • Rick Perry 1% (5%)
  • Lindsey Graham 1%
  • Rick Santorum 1% (3%)
  • Undecided 13% (22%)

Survey of 381 potential GOP primary voters was conducted February 3-10, 2015.  The margin of error is +/- 5.0 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted July 7-13, 2014 are in parentheses.

NBC News/Marist South Carolina 2016 GOP Primary Poll

  • Lindsey Graham 17%
  • Jeb Bush 15%
  • Scott Walker 12%
  • Mike Huckabee 10%
  • Ben Carson 10%
  • Rand Paul 7%
  • Chris Christie 6%
  • Marco Rubio 4%
  • Rick Perry 4%
  • Rick Santorum 3%
  • Ted Cruz 1%
  • Undecided 11%

Survey of 450 potential GOP primary voters was conducted February 3-10, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 4.6 percentage points.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 4:00 am. Filed under 2016, Iowa Caucuses, Jeb Bush, Lindsey Graham, Mike Huckabee, Poll Watch, Republican Party

February 13, 2015

Poll Watch: Christopher Newport University Virginia 2016 Presidential Survey

  • Hillary Clinton (D) 48% (51%)
  • Jeb Bush (R) 43% (38%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 49% (43%)
  • Chris Christie (R) 42% (41%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 51% (48%)
  • Marco Rubio (R) 42% (40%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 52% (52%)
  • Paul Ryan (R) 42% (37%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 52% (52%)
  • Mike Huckabee (R) 42% (37%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 52% (47%)
  • Rand Paul (R) 42% (40%)

Survey of 794 registered voters was conducted January 30 – February 10, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 3.6 percentage points.  Party ID: 25% (27%) Democrat; 21% (21%) Republican; 51% (50%) Independent. Results from the poll conducted February 23-28, 2014 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 2:10 pm. Filed under 2016, Democrats, Hillary Clinton, Poll Watch, Republican Party

Poll Watch: Christopher Newport University Virginia 2016 Republican Primary Survey

CNU Virginia 2016 GOP Presidential Primary Poll

  • Jeb Bush 21% (18%)
  • Scott Walker 16% (3%) 
  • Mike Huckabee 10% (13%)
  • Chris Christie 10% (19%)
  • Ben Carson 9%
  • Rand Paul 6% (7%)
  • Marco Rubio 6% (4%)
  • Paul Ryan 5% (13%)
  • Ted Cruz 3% (9%
  • John Kasich 3%
  • Bobby Jindal 2% 
  • Rick Perry 1%
  • Mike Pence 1%
  • Rob Portman 1%
  • Rick Santorum 1% 
  • Undecided 4% (13%)

Survey of registered Republican and GOP-leaning Independent voters was conducted January 30 – February 10, 2015. Results from the poll conducted February 23-28, 2014 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 11:00 am. Filed under 2016, Jeb Bush, Poll Watch, Republican Party

Poll Watch: Landslide Communications California 2016 Republican Primary Survey

Landslide Communications California 2016 Republican Primary Survey

  • Scott Walker 20.0%
  • BenCarson 10.7%
  • Jeb Bush 10.5%
  • Mike Huckabee 7.3%
  • Chris Christie 5.8%
  • Marco Rubio 5.2%
  • Rand Paul 4.7%
  • Ted Cruz 4.0%
  • Rick Perry 3.7%
  • Carly Fiorina 3.2%
  • Rick Santorum 1.8%
  • Bobby Jindal 1.5%
  • Lindsey Graham 0.8%
  • John Kasich 0.6%

The sample size was 600 interviews. The margin of error is estimated to be +/- 4.00%, at the 95% confidence level, statewide.

by @ 10:00 am. Filed under 2016, Poll Watch, Republican Party, Scott Walker

February 10, 2015

Poll Watch: Fox 5/InsiderAdvantage (R) Georgia 2016 Republican Primary Survey

Fox 5/InsiderAdvantage (R) Georgia 2016 GOP Primary Poll

  • Jeb Bush 21.5%
  • Scott Walker 17.3%
  • Mike Huckabee 16.4%
  • Ben Carson 15.5%
  • Rick Perry 7.2%
  • Rand Paul 3.9%
  • Marco Rubio 3.9%
  • Chris Christie 3.0%
  • Donald Trump 1.9%
  • Other/No opinion 9.5%

Survey of 200 registered Republican primary voters was conducted February 4, 2015.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 9:57 am. Filed under 2016, Jeb Bush, Poll Watch, Republican Party

February 9, 2015

Poll Watch: Saint Anselm College/Bloomberg Politics New Hampshire 2016 GOP Primary Survey

St. Anselm College/Bloomberg Politics New Hampshire 2016 GOP Primary Poll

  • Jeb Bush 16% (14%)
  • Rand Paul 13% (16%)
  • Scott Walker 12%
  • Chris Christie 10% (16%)
  • Ben Carson 6% (9%)
  • Mike Huckabee 6% (8%)
  • Marco Rubio 5%
  • Ted Cruz 3% (5%)
  • Bobby Jindal 3% (4%)
  • Donald Trump 3%
  • John Kasich 2%
  • Rick Santorum 2%
  • Carly Fiorina 1%
  • Rick Perry 1% (3%)
  • Mike Pence 0%
  • Someone else 1% (1%)
  • None of the above 2% (4%)
  • Not sure 14% (13%)  

Survey of 400 likely Republican primary voters was conducted January 31 – February 5, 2015 by Purple Insights.  The margin of error is +/- 4.9 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted November 12-18, 2014 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 1:14 pm. Filed under 2016, Jeb Bush, New Hampshire Primary, Poll Watch, Republican Party

February 6, 2015

Poll Watch: Quinnipiac Swing State 2016 Presidential Surveys

Quinnipiac Ohio 2016 Presidential Poll

  • Hillary Clinton (D) 44% [47%] (47%) {51%} [49%]
  • John Kasich (R) 43% [40%] (42%) {39%} [38%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 47% [48%] (48%) {51%} [50%]
  • Jeb Bush (R) 36% [37%] (39%) {36%} [37%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 48% [46%] (49%) {51%} [50%] (47%)
  • Rand Paul (R) 36% [42%] (41%) {38%} [40%] (44%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 47% [46%] (46%) {49%} [42%] (42%)
  • Chris Christie (R) 34% [37%] (38%) {36%} [41%] (42%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 49% (49%)
  • Mike Huckabee (R) 34% (41%)

Survey of 943 registered voters was conducted January 22 – February 1, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 3.2 percentage points. Party ID: 28% [32%] (29%) {32%} [31%] (29%) Democrat; 26% [28%] (29%) {28%} [26%] (28%) Republican; 32% [35%] (35%) {33%} [36%] (35%) Independent; 13% [6%] (8%) {7%} [7%] (7%) Other. Click here to view crosstabs. Results from the poll conducted July 24-28, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted May 7-12, 2014 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted February 12-17, 2014 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 19-24, 2013 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted June 18-23, 2013 are in parentheses.

Quinnipiac Florida 2016 Presidential Poll

  • Hillary Clinton (D) 44% {49%} [49%] (49%) {47%} [50%] (51%)
  • Jeb Bush (R) 43% {42%} [41%] (43%) {45%} [43%] (40%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 49% {53%} [52%] (51%) {50%} [53%] (52%)
  • Marco Rubio (R) 39% {39%} [40%] (41%) {43%} [41%] (41%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 50% {53%} [55%] (53%) {51%}
  • Rand Paul (R) 38% {37%} [37%] (38%) {41%}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 51% [53%]
  • Mike Huckabee (R) 34% [35%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 51% {54%} [52%] (51%) {45%}
  • Chris Christie (R) 33% {33%} [34%] (35%) {41%}

Survey of 936 registered voters was conducted January 22 – February 1, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 3.2 percentage points. Party ID: 33% {31%} [31%] (30%) {32%} [34%] (35%) Democrat; 28% {28%} [25%] (27%) {29%} [28%] (27%) Republican; 30% {32%} [34%] (35%) {32%} [30%] (31%) Independent; 8% {9%} [11%] (7%) {7%} [8%] (7%) Other. Click here to view crosstabs. Results from the poll conducted July 17-21, 2014 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 23-28, 2014 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 22-27, 2014 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted November 12-17, 2013 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted June 11-16, 2013 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted March 13-18, 2013 are in parentheses.

Quinnipiac Pennsylvania 2016 Presidential Poll

  • Hillary Clinton (D) 50% [45%] (46%) {44%} (47%)
  • Chris Christie (R) 39% [41%] (41%) {43%} (42%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 50% [51%] (53%) {52%}
  • Jeb Bush (R) 35% [35%] (36%) {36%}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 53% [51%] (53%) {52%} [52%]
  • Rand Paul (R) 34% [37%] (38%) {40%} [37%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 54% [51%]
  • Mike Huckabee (R) 34% [36%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 54% (53%) {51%} [53%]
  • Rick Santorum (R) 34% (37%) {38%} [36%]
Survey of 881 registered voters was conducted January 22 – February 1, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 3.3 percentage points.  Party ID: 36% [38%] (35%) {36%} [39%] (37%) Democrat; 28% [30%] (32%) {30%} [33%] (34%) Republican; 28% [27%] (26%) {27%} [21%] (24%) Independent; 8% [6%] (7%) {7%} [7%] (5%) Other/Don’t know.  Click here to view crosstabs. Results from the poll conductedMay 29 – June 2, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted February 19-24, 2014 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted December 11-16, 2013 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 30 – June 4, 2013 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted March 6-11, 2013 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 12:49 pm. Filed under 2016, Hillary Clinton, Poll Watch, Republican Party

Poll Watch: UNH/WMUR New Hampshire 2016 Republican Primary Survey

UNH/WMUR New Hampshire 2016 GOP Primary Poll

  • Jeb Bush 17% [15%] (11%) {7%} [3%] (8%) {10%} [5%] (5%)
  • Scott Walker 12% [3%] (3%) {3%} [2%] (2%) {2%} [1%] (3%)
  • Chris Christie 9% [12%] (19%) {12%} [9%] (16%) {21%} [11%] (14%)
  • Mike Huckabee 9% [9%] (8%)
  • Rand Paul 9% [7%] (14%) {15%} [16%] (17%) {16%} [15%] (8%)
  • Ben Carson 8%
  • Marco Rubio 5% [3%] (8%) {2%} [6%] (4%) {6%} [15%] (12%)
  • Ted Cruz 4% [6%] (5%) {7%} [3%] (6%) {4%} [2%] (1%)
  • Rick Perry 2% [2%] (2%) {1%} [2%] (1%) {4%}
  • Rick Santorum 2% [2%] (1%) {1%} (4%) {4%} [4%] (3%)
  • Donald Trump 2%
  • John Bolton 1%
  • Bobby Jindal 1% [3%] (5%) {3%} [2%] (2%)
  • John Kasich 1% [0%] (0%)
  • George Pataki 1%
  • Carly Fiorina 0%
  • Peter King 0%
  • Someone else 1% [3%] (3%) {3%} [6%] (3%) {3%} [0%] (2%)
  • Don’t know yet 15% [28%] (15%) {15%} [18%] (21%) {20%} [23%] (20%)

Survey of 348 likely Republican primary voters was conducted January 22 – February 3, 2015.  The margin of error is +/- 5.3 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted September 29 – October 5, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted June 19 – July 1, 2014 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted April 1-9, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted January 21-26, 2014 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted October 7-16, 2013 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted July 18-29, 2013 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 4-9, 2013 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted January 27 – February 3, 2013 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 9:56 am. Filed under 2016, Jeb Bush, New Hampshire Primary, Poll Watch, Republican Party

February 5, 2015

Poll Watch: Gravis Marketing/Howie Carr (R) New Hampshire 2016 Republican Primary Survey

Gravis Marketing/Howie Carr (R) New Hampshire 2016 GOP Primary Poll

  • Scott Walker 23% (7%)
  • Jeb Bush 16% (16%)
  • Chris Christie 12% (15%)
  • Rand Paul 11% (12%)
  • Marco Rubio 8% (8%)
  • Ted Cruz 6% (12%)
  • Mike Huckabee 6% (11%)
  • Rick Santorum 3% (3%)
  • Rick Perry 2%
  • Mike Pence 0%
  • Unsure 14% (16%)

Survey of 608 registered Republican primary voters was conducted February 2-3, 2015.  The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points.  Party ID: 57% (61%) Republican; 42% (35%) Independent/Other; 1% (4%) Democrat. Results from the poll conducted January 29-30, 2014are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 4:17 pm. Filed under 2016, New Hampshire Primary, Poll Watch, Republican Party

News Cycle Flavors Just Beginning

It might be 11 months until the first voting in the opening event of the U.S. 2016 presidential election, but there can be little doubt that the “on” button has been pressed for this highest profile quadrennial contest.

Mitt Romney’s decision not to run again has set a great deal into motion. Jeb Bush, as a result, is now the consensus “frontrunner.”

Following the recent Citizens United unofficial debate in Des Moines, we now also have the first informal “flavor of the news cycle,” Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker. Mr. Walker stole the show among the potential candidates (I personally thought that non-candidate New Gingrich gave the most important speech) with a shirt-sleeved talk that exceeded media expectations. The governor recently won a hard-fought re-election after initiating a series of controversial but much-applauded (by conservatives) executive actions in the Badger State. He is, of course, a very long way from the nomination (and hasn’t even formally announced), but he now clearly merits elevation to the first tier of GOP prospects, joining Jeb Bush and Chris Christie.

But he will not be the last main flavor of the news cycle in 2015. This process has a certain similarity to a team pitching rotation in major league baseball. Each starting hurler gets to pitch every four or five days. In this case, most of the serious GOP hopefuls will do something unusual to obtain media attention, and following that, they will temporarily lead in the polls. This pattern will be repeated routinely, especially after the first formal debates begin in the autumn, and subsequently after each debate — unless, of course, one frontrunning candidate catches on early and the contest becomes more or less moot.

Look for New Jersey Governor, Chris Christie already in the first tier, to become the flavor of the news cycle later, after the debates (in which he will probably shine) begin. If he decides to run, Florida Senator Marco Rubio, also an excellent speaker, could become the flavor of the news cycle after winning an early primary. Kentucky Senator Rand Paul could also reach high flavor if his supporters succeed in placing him upward in an early primary or caucus. Physician Ben Carson is already a conservative favorite, and is already showing strong numbers in early polls. Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee, former Texas Governor Rick Perry and former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum already have been flavors of the news cycle in 2011-12, but it will be difficult for them to repeat this success in 2016 — with the public and the media clamoring, as they always do, for new faces and sensations.

Be also prepared for a surprise flavor of the news cycle after someone now not expected to run gets into the race and steals attention away, at least for a while, from the frontrunners.

Remember Herman Cain?

——————————————————————————————
Copyright (c) 2015 by Barry Casselman. All rights reserved.

Poll Watch: NH1/Reach Communications (R) New Hampshire 2016 Republican Primary Survey

NH1/Reach Communications (R) New Hampshire 2016 GOP Primary Poll

  • Scott Walker 21.2% (8%)
  • Jeb Bush 14.4% (11%)
  • Rand Paul 8.3% (7%)
  • Ben Carson 8.2% (7%)
  • Chris Christie 7.0% (8%)
  • Mike Huckabee 6.8% (5%)
  • Marco Rubio 5.4% (3%)
  • Ted Cruz 3.3% (4%)
  • Rick Perry 2.7%
  • George Pataki 2.2%
  • Carly Fiorina 1.7%
  • Someone else/Undecided 18.8% (18%)

Survey of 1,012 likely GOP primary voters was conducted February 2-3, 2015.  The margin of error is +/- 3.08 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted January 21, 2015 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 10:24 am. Filed under 2016, New Hampshire Primary, Poll Watch, Republican Party, Scott Walker

February 4, 2015

Poll Watch: Quinnipiac Pennsylvania 2016 Presidential Primary Surveys

  • Jeb Bush 12%
  • Chris Christie 11%
  • Mike Huckabee 10%
  • Ben Carson 8%
  • Rick Santorum 8%
  • Ted Cruz 6%
  • Scott Walker 6%
  • Marco Rubio 4%
  • John Kasich 3%
  • Rand Paul 3%
  • Bobby Jindal 2%
  • Rick Perry 1%

Survey of 342 registered Republicans was conducted January 22 – February 1, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 5.3 percentage points.

Quinnipiac Pennsylvania 2016 Democratic Primary Poll

  • Hillary Clinton 54%
  • Elizabeth Warren 12%
  • Joe Biden 10%
  • Martin O’Malley 2%
  • Bernie Sanders 2%
  • Jim Webb 1%

Survey of 392 registered Democrats was conducted January 22 – February 1, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 5 percentage points.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 12:15 pm. Filed under 2016, Democrats, Hillary Clinton, Jeb Bush, Poll Watch, Republican Party

Poll Watch: Quinnipiac Florida 2016 Presidential Primary Surveys

Quinnipiac Florida 2016 GOP Primary Poll

  • Jeb Bush 32% (21%) {27%} [25%] (22%)
  • Marco Rubio 15% (18%) {11%} [16%] (18%)
  • Mike Huckabee 11% (7%) {6%}
  • Scott Walker 9% (2%) {4%} [5%] (2%)
  • Ben Carson 8%
  • Ted Cruz 4% (10%) {6%} [9%] (12%)
  • Chris Christie 3% (6%) {7%} [9%] (14%)
  • Rand Paul 3% (8%) {14%} [11%] (9%)
  • Bobby Jindal 3% (1%) {1%} [3%] (3%)
  • Rick Santorum 3% (1%)
  • Rick Perry 1% (5%)
  • John Kasich 0% (1%)

Survey of 348 registered Republicans was conducted January 22 – February 1, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 5.3 percentage points.Results from the poll conducted July 17-21, 2014 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted April 23-28, 2014 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 22-27, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted November 12-17, 2013 are in parentheses.

Quinnipiac Florida 2016 Democratic Primary Poll

  • Hillary Clinton 61% (67%) {64%} [64%] (70%)
  • Joe Biden 11% (8%) {11%} [9%] (9%)
  • Elizabeth Warren 9% (8%) {6%} [5%] (4%)
  • Bernie Sanders 2%
  • Jim Webb 1%
  • Martin O’Malley 1% (0%) {1%} [1%] (1%)

Survey of 322 registered Democrats was conducted January 22 – February 1, 2015.  The margin of error is +/- 5.5 percentage points.Results from the poll conducted July 17-21, 2014 are in parentheses.Results from the poll conducted April 23-28, 2014 are in curly brackets.Results from the poll conducted January 22-27, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted November 12-17, 2013 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 11:45 am. Filed under 2016, Democrats, Hillary Clinton, Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, Poll Watch, Republican Party

Poll Watch: Quinnipiac Ohio 2016 Presidential Primary Surveys

Quinnipiac Ohio 2016 GOP Primary Poll

  • John Kasich 14%
  • Scott Walker 11%
  • Jeb Bush 10%
  • Rand Paul 10%
  • Ben Carson 8%
  • Mike Huckabee 7%
  • Chris Christie 6%  
  • Ted Cruz 6%
  • Marco Rubio 4%
  • Bobby Jindal 1%
  • Rick Perry 1%
  • Rick Santorum 1%

Survey of 337 registered Republicans was conducted January 22 – February 1, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 5.3 percentage points.

Quinnipiac Ohio 2016 Democratic Primary Poll

  • Hillary Clinton 51%
  • Elizabeth Warren 14%
  • Joe Biden 7%
  • Bernie Sanders 5%
  • Martin O’Malley 1%
  • Jim Webb 0%

Survey of 315 registered Democrats was conducted January 22 – February 1, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 5.5 percentage points.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 11:15 am. Filed under 2016, Democrats, Hillary Clinton, John Kasich, Poll Watch, Republican Party

February 2, 2015

Poll Watch: Loras College Iowa 2016 Republican Caucus Survey

Loras College Iowa 2016 GOP Caucus Poll

  • Mike Huckabee 14.4% (14.7%)
  • Jeb Bush 13.1% (10.7%)
  • Ben Carson 12.8%
  • Scott Walker 9.9% (4.7%)
  • Rand Paul 7.0% (8.5%)
  • Chris Christie 5.4% (8.0%)
  • Ted Cruz 5.4% (6.2%)
  • Marco Rubio 4.2% (4.7%)
  • Rick Santorum 3.8% (4.7%)
  • Rick Perry 3.2% (3.0%)
  • Bobby Jindal 1.6%
  • Carly Fiorina 1.3%
  • John Kasich 1.3% (0.7%)
  • Lindsey Graham 0.6%

Survey of 316 likely Iowa GOP caucus-goers was conducted January 21-24, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 5.5 percentage points. Click here to view crosstabs. Results from the poll conducted April 7-8, 2014 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 4:00 am. Filed under 2016, Iowa Caucuses, Mike Huckabee, Poll Watch, Republican Party

February 1, 2015

Poll Watch: Des Moines Register/Selzer & Co. Iowa 2016 Republican Caucus Survey

Des Moines Register/Selzer & Co. Iowa 2016 Republican Caucus Survey

  • Scott Walker 16%
  • Rand Paul 15%
  • Mike Huckabee 13%
  • Ben Carson 10%
  • Jeb Bush 9%
  • Ted Cruz 6%
  • Chris Christie 6%
  • Rick Santorum 5%
  • Marco Rubio 4%
  • Rick Perry 3%
  • Bobby Jindal 2%
  • Carly Fiorina 1%
  • John Kasich 1%
  • Donald Trump 1%
  • Mike Pence 0%
  • Uncomitted 3%

The poll of 402 likely Republican caucusgoers was conducted Jan. 26-29 by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines. The margin of error is plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.

Inside the numbers:

Presidential stage newcomer Scott Walker, the conservative reform pit bull who inspired death threats from the left, has become the one to watch in the race for the Republican nomination a year out from the Iowa caucuses.

At 15 percentage points, he leads a big, tightly packed field of potential contenders in a new Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Politics Iowa Poll of likely Republican caucusgoers. The caucuses are scheduled for Feb. 1, 2016.

The Wisconsin governor is also the No. 2 most popular choice for likely caucusgoers who want an establishment candidate, and he’s the No. 2 for those who want an anti-establishment candidate, the poll shows.

~snip~

The day after polling wrapped up, Romney announced he’s out of the competition. When the numbers in this poll are shuffled — by giving Romney’s votes to the contenders his supporters named as their second-choice pick — the five others in the top tier gain support.

Huckabee, a former TV commentator and two-term Arkansas governor, benefits the most, picking up 3 percentage points. The pecking order doesn’t shift, though.

~snip~

Last weekend, he made his big debut as a potential presidential contender, delivering a forceful speech at the Iowa Freedom Summit that elated the audience. Extensive national media coverage billed Walker as the best of show among nine potential candidates who spoke at the summit.

“He got a big bounce,” Selzer said.

Walker’s support has jumped 11 points since the last Iowa Poll. In October, only 4 percent of likely caucusgoers named Walker as their first choice for president.

by @ 12:00 am. Filed under 2016, Iowa Caucuses, Poll Watch, Republican Party

January 30, 2015

Can Scott Walker Be 2016’s Un-Romney?

“Someone literally sent me a threat that said they were going to gut my wife like a deer.”

Intricate, personal accounts of threats lobbed at him and his family during the recall battle are now a cornerstone of Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker’s stump speech.

On Thursday evening, Governor Walker reiterated this theme at a small, invitation-only reception in the Lakewood, NJ home of former pharmaceutical executive Dr. Richard H. Roberts, a mega GOP donor and supporter of Governor Walker.

The predominantly Orthodox Jewish audience is far removed from the hunting culture. However, the “gut my wife like a deer” line elicited the same audible gasps as it did during the likely presidential candidate’s speech at the Freedom Summit in Iowa this past Saturday.

Scott Walker, victim?

The themes expressed in a likely presidential candidate’s stump speech aren’t there by accident. The abuse Mr. Walker endured at the hands of the left does more than just placate conservatives who relish a real fighter for their favored causes. It goes to the heart of the governor’s political success to date, which defies all conventional odds.

Little could frustrate the left more than the fact that a less-than-charismatic white male conservative governor gets to strongly curtail union power in a blue state and wins elections comfortably – three times in four years. They lobbed everything they’ve got – money, volunteers, protestors, big-name politicians – at Walker, but nothing made a dent.

Riding a wave of positive reviews of his de facto debut in the presidential race, the governor was clearly on a high in Lakewood. Appearing in a black velvet yarmulke – “It covers my bald spot well” – Mr. Walker was all smiles, handshakes and backslaps. He acknowledged with a wink and thumbs-up when individual audience members snapped pictures with their smartphones. He did all this while consistently pointing to the left’s persecution of him. “This last go around, I was the number one target in America,” he stated.

Glancing at Scott Walker’s improbable rise to a top tier presidential candidate, you see that his political sustenance is, in large part, is liberal overkill. Were it not for the historic 2012 recall race the left subjected him to, Scott Walker would be just one amongst a selection of competent but uninspiring white male Republican governors in blue and purple states. Not much different than, say, Rick Snyder of Michigan, or the man many wrongly attempt pegging Walker to: former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty.

None of them will be president in 2017. Yet, now Walker is well positioned as a potential rare hero common hero for both establishment GOPers and firebrands like Rush Limbaugh.

An enemy’s enemy is a friend. An enemy’s top enemy is a best friend.

“I think that’s insulting.”

The left’s overkill has not only endeared Mr. Walker to all factions of the right, but also to the Wisconsin independents and, in Walker’s words, “discerning Democrats” who helped him win his three tough races.

Liberals don’t bat an eyelash when making the most outlandish accusations against Republicans, such as accusing Mitt Romney of causing a woman to die from cancer or predicting that Colorado Senator Cory Gardner would ban condoms.

Like clockwork, they tried this shtick on Scott Walker. In September, DNC chair Debbie Wasserman Schultz said Walker has given women “the back of his hand” and is “grabbing us by the hair.” Yet it backfired big time. Both the campaign of Walker’s opponent Mary Burke and, later, Wasserman Schultz herself, distanced themselves from the remark.

Unlike with most politicians, especially conservative Republicans, you just cannot throw the bunker busting bombs at Scott Walker. It doesn’t work.

At the Lakewood reception, I asked Governor Walker about the lessons he learned while running against a female Democrat in 2014, and how that would translate to the inevitable gender-card-playing should he face Hillary Clinton next November. “I think that’s insulting,” he responded. “I talk to female voters all the time. The women I talk to are not unlike most men; they care about the economy; they care about their neighbor who has been out of work for six months; they care about schools.”

Walker bets on regular guy image

The governor’s retort to Democrats’ “War on Women” is not original, but he is one of its most effective messengers.

While his major 2016 GOP rivals may have more colorful personalities, and/or more intriguing biographies, Mr. Walker is betting that his regular-guy image will win the day. He takes pains to mention his working class childhood, bargain hunting at Kohl’s, and his wife’s part-time jobs. When discussing the need for a strong and consistent foreign policy, he uses as an example the pact he had with wife all the years that they would never contradict each other when one punished one of their sons.

Governor Walker’s persona and demeanor are indeed not dynamic, but he therefore also comes across as too normal and nice to be caricatured as a bogeyman. The glove doesn’t fit. “I don’t take the bait … in the end it didn’t become the kind of wedge issue you’d expect,” he explained to me regarding Democrats’ efforts to paint him as anti-woman.

The upcoming year-plus primary season will be fascinating to watch, but it is distinctly possible that Scott Walker has the perfect balance necessary for a Republican to win the White House these days: strong enough to land a knockout punch, but too agreeable for moderate voters to want to see him punched back.

Just hours before Mitt Romney announced that he would not be making another presidential run, Scott Walker was eager to contrast himself with the previous GOP nominee, who he said lost because he couldn’t connect with everyday American working class voter. “Even when I’m on Fox News and talk radio,” he said, “I talk like I’m talking to a guy sitting on his couch — he works in a factory in my state; his wife works as a nurse in the local hospital; they have two kids going to public school; they’re working hard to make ends meet – in a language that makes sense to them.”

I asked the governor how the GOP can run on the economy in 2016 if leading indicators continue their current positive trajectory. He replied that the party would need to focus on the Americans, particularly those in rural areas, whose economic conditions lag the rest of the nation’s.

While at a closed fundraiser in the home of a super wealthy donor, Scott Walker sounded the polar opposite of what Mitt Romney did in a similar setting two and a half years ago when he made his infamous “47 percent” comments.

Time will tell whether his national ambitions will end up differently too.
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

-Simon Blum is a freelance writer and journalist specializing in political analysis and communication. You can follow Simon on Twitter @sbpundit. This article was first published at The Daily Caller.

by @ 5:47 pm. Filed under 2016, Mitt Romney, Opinion, Republican Party, Scott Walker

January 29, 2015

Poll Watch: Washington Post/ABC News 2016 Presidential Survey

Washington Post/ABC News 2016 Presidential Poll

  • Hillary Clinton (D) 53% (53%)
  • Chris Christie (R) 40% (41%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 54% [53%]
  • Jeb Bush (R) 41% [41%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 54% {53%}
  • Rand Paul (R) 41% {43%}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 55%
  • Mitt Romney (R) 40%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 56%
  • Mike Huckabee (R) 39%

Survey of 843 registered voters was conducted January 12-15, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points. Party ID: 33% Democrat; 26% Republican; 33% Independent. Results from the poll conducted May 29 – June 1, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted April 24-27, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted January 20-23, 2014 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 10:06 am. Filed under 2016, Hillary Clinton, Poll Watch, Republican Party

January 28, 2015

Poll Watch: Townhall/Gravis Marketing (R) South Carolina 2016 Republican Primary Survey

  • Mitt Romney 20%
  • Jeb Bush 16%
  • Scott Walker 9%
  • Mike Huckabee 8%
  • Ted Cruz 8%
  • Marco Rubio 7% 
  • Rand Paul 7% 
  • Chris Christie 5%
  • Rick Santorum 4%
  • Rick Perry 4%
  • Undecided 12%

If Mitt Romney does not run:

  • Jeb Bush 18% [22%] (16.0%)
  • Mike Huckabee 11% [19%] (15.8%)
  • Scott Walker 11% [5%] (2.3%)
  • Ted Cruz 9% [8%] (11.1%)
  • Marco Rubio 9% [6%] (7.2%) 
  • Chris Christie 8% [12%] (16.6%)
  • Rand Paul 8% [8%] (9.7%)
  • Rick Perry 5%
  • Rick Santorum 4% [2%] (2.8%)
  • Undecided 17% [19%] (18.5%)

Survey of 831 likely GOP primary voters was conducted January 21-22, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted March 6-7, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted November 30 – December 2, 2013 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 12:58 pm. Filed under 2016, Jeb Bush, Mitt Romney, Poll Watch, Republican Party

Poll Watch: Rasmussen 2016 Republican Nomination Survey

Rasmussen 2016 GOP Nomination Poll

  • Mitt Romney 24%
  • Jeb Bush 13% {18%} [12%] (16%)
  • Ben Carson 12%
  • Scott Walker 11% {20%} [5%] (6%)
  • Chris Christie 7% {15%} [22%] (21%)
  • Rand Paul 7% {13%} [20%] (15%)
  • Marco Rubio 5% [16%] (18%)
  • Rick Perry 5%
  • Some other candidate 4%
  • Undecided 12%

Survey of 787 likely Republican voters was conducted January 18-19, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 3.5 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted November 20-21, 2014 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 7-8, 2013 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted August 1-2, 2013 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 10:15 am. Filed under 2016, Mitt Romney, Poll Watch, Republican Party

January 26, 2015

How Much Establishment Support Does Mitt Romney Have?

There’s some interesting commentary on this video (sorry that I’m too inept to embed it), in which a Fox News Special Report panel places early bets on the Republican field – the premise being that each has $100 to allocate among the candidates at a hypothetical Vegas betting window. If you click the link, I think you’ll find it at least entertaining. For what it’s worth (which is approximately zero), the totals placed by the three panelists added up thus:

Scott Walker $85

Jeb Bush $70

Marco Rubio $70

Ted Cruz $10

The Field $50

It was interesting that nobody put a dime on Mitt Romney, who is leading all the polls (for what that is worth at this stage, which is again, in my opinion, approximately zero).

Romney’s non-support was of course picked up on and was the subject of the closing remarks, which could be summarized as:

“On Capitol Hill, few are for him, and there’s no enthusiasm elsewhere, other than from his loyalists/former staff.”

That, to me, is the most interesting part of this – I had been presuming that Romney and Bush would pretty much split the bulk of the party Establishment, with a some going to Chris Christie (also notable by his absence in the betting), and maybe slivers to Rubio and Walker.

IF this is true, the question, which I present for your comments, becomes: Is Mitt Romney the sort of candidate who can run without substantial Establishment backing? The corollary question is: IF he’s pretty much bereft of support on Capitol Hill, as alleged, will he even run?

by @ 2:34 pm. Filed under 2016, Mitt Romney, Republican Party

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