May 29, 2015

What if Iowa Holds a Straw Poll and No One Comes?

When Jeb Bush and Mike Huckabee announced they would not compete at the (new and improved?) Iowa Straw Poll this August, all eyes turned to the other candidates to see what they would do. After all, Iowa’s own Republican governor publicly said the straw poll has outlived its usefulness and should be allowed to die, but the Iowa GOP voted to continue the circus for at least one more go round. Would anybody show up? Or would the conventional wisdom — a candidate has almost nothing to gain and everything to lose by competing — prevail, meaning the straw poll would be playing to an empty room?

The body blows continued: Shortly after he announced he was running for president, Lindsey Graham announced he would not be competing. Then Marco Rubio’s campaign said it would be “highly unlikely” the Senator would compete, either. And now, we might be able to write the pre-mortem for the Iowa Straw Poll everybody is itching to write.

The Iowa GOP held an informational meeting for campaigns who are interested in the August event, and only seven campaigns (out of a potential 18) showed up:

  • Ben Carson
  • Chris Christie
  • Ted Cruz
  • Carly Fiorina
  • Lindsey Graham
  • Rick Perry
  • Donald Trump

Making it worse, one of those seven campaigns was Lindsey Graham’s, who made it clear they weren’t joining the straw poll but were just attending out of respect for the Iowa Republican Party. So in reality, only six campaigns are even interested in competing this year. Six out of eighteen — let that sink in for a moment.

Noticeably absent: Rand Paul, Rick Santorum, and Scott Walker. Rand’s father used to make a political career out of gaming straw polls; it looks like Paul the Younger has no desire to follow in his father’s footsteps. Santorum’s lack of interest in the straw poll matches Huckabee’s in terms of seriousness: both have won the Iowa caucuses, but now face the reality of weakened support and severely negative press should they compete and lose here in August.

Scott Walker’s absence may be the most startling, however. With Bush and Rubio both bowing out, one would think this would be a prime opportunity for Governor Walker to score an early and easy victory. Plus, the Iowa caucuses are an absolute must-win for him come February, being a neighboring conservative governor, so the Straw Poll would give him a chance to put a slew of organizational pieces into place early. He must have decided the risk wasn’t worth it, though — and who could blame him?

So who is planning to compete? Donald Trump and Ben Carson. That’s it. Those are the only two candidates who have committed to attend the 2015 straw poll. Even if Christie, Cruz, Fiorina, and Perry all decide to get in (remember, Perry famously skipped the straw poll last time to announce his candidacy at the Red State event), that’s not much of a lineup to attract voters. While it might be a few minutes of fun to watch Christie bloviate all over a roomful of Iowans, nobody would mistake this for a serious event in any way, shape, or form. (Which is why I think Fiorina will ultimately skip it as well – she is desperately trying to be seen as a serious candidate, and running around at an event where Donald Trump could be the main headliner certainly doesn’t play into that.)

And so it is that the straw poll fizzles out and finally dies, with little fanfare or recognition. RIP, Ames Straw Poll, 1979-2015. It was fun while it lasted.

May 27, 2015

The End of the Next-in-Line

Rick Santorum will officially enter the race for the Republican nomination later today, and if 2016 followed the pattern of past primary campaigns, he would be the prohibitive frontrunner. But 2016 isn’t, and Santorum isn’t.

It’s a well-worn axiom that the GOP always nominates its “next-in-line,” or, put another way, whoever’s “turn it is” will get the nomination. It started when Reagan came in second to Ford in 1976, then won in 1980. In 1988, George H.W. Bush, who came in second to Reagan in 1980, assumed the nomination. In 1996, Bob Dole, who came in second to Bush in 1988, became the party’s standard bearer. George W. Bush became the first to technically break the mold in 2000, never having run a national campaign before, but his status as the son of a former President helped him fit nicely into the “next-in-line” mantra nicely anyway. In 2008, John McCain, who came in second to Bush in 2000, became the nominee. And in 2012, Mitt Romney, who came in second to McCain, won the nomination.

So it’s all there, more or less in black-and-white: whoever comes in second during a competitive Republican primary becomes the party’s nominee the next time around.

But rules were made to be broken – especially rules regarding politics. Rick Santorum placed second to Mitt Romney in 2012, and yet he will not come anywhere close to the nomination this time around. Why? What has transpired to break this decades-old tradition? It boils down to just three things, really: the past, the present, and the future. (That is to say, everything.)

The Past
The 2012 primary campaign was unlike any campaign in recent memory: only one candidate (Governor Romney) was a truly viable candidate, but he left so many GOP voters dissatisfied that the nonviable candidates kept getting propped up, one after the other. It was Mitt and the Munchkins, with the Munchkins filling the role of protest votes. And so we must understand that the eventual votes in Santorum’s column weren’t as much votes for Santorum as they were against Romney. The same cannot be said of Reagan in ’76, Bush in ’80, Dole in ’88, or McCain in ’00. Each of those candidates had something specific that recommended them to the voters; Santorum only had the same thing Gingrich, Cain, Bachmann, and Perry had: he wasn’t Mitt Romney. In other words, there wasn’t a second-place (or third- or fourth-place) candidate in the 2012 primary who was viable on a national level. Santorum placed second by default, not because he was a strong and believable candidate. And so the past is where this tradition begins to fall apart.

The Present
Which brings us to the present: 2016 is promising to be a much different election, but Santorum is much the same (inherently flawed) candidate. In 2016, the polls have all shown that the Republican voters are deeply satisfied with their choices this year. Part of that is due to the large field, but part of it is because frontrunners like Senator Rubio and Governor Walker appeal to a broad spectrum of the party. There is very little room in the 2016 campaign for a protest vote or an “anti-frontrunner” candidate. Meanwhile, although he makes valiant efforts to downplay his positions on social issues, Santorum is still very much The Man With the Google Problem. He appeals to a very narrow subsection of the American electorate, and even a subsection of the Republican party that is rapidly narrowing as well. Even among that narrow slice of voters, he is facing competition from the likes of Ted Cruz, Ben Carson, Bobby Jindal, and other fresh faces in this campaign.

The Future
Which brings us to the future. It used to be that a Republican nomination was built on trust. Go with the candidate you know, the one you’re familiar with from the last go ’round, who won’t surprise you. In fact, Santorum himself makes this argument in his stump speech: “I just think it’s important to nominate somebody that you know and that you trust, because trust is the most important thing,” he says, over and over again. But this election, something different is in the air. After getting mauled by the Obama machine and the Democrats in two straight presidential elections, and seeing the intangible inspiration Obama brought to the American electorate, Republican voters are clamoring the try something new. Something, dare I say… exciting. “He had his shot” has now officially replaced “It’s his turn” in the GOP primary voter lexicon. Finishing second place used to be almost a guarantee of frontrunner status. Now, not only is it not an asset, it has completely transformed into a liability. “Experienced” and “vetted” has become “also-ran” and “has-been”.

Of course, none of this would really matter if it were just about Rick Santorum, but it’s about something larger: a party evolving, learning to embrace the future and the excitement of the unknown, and bucking decades of tradition. That tradition was strong enough to bring John McCain back from the dead in 2008, but it is not powerful enough any longer to make the Sweater Vest relevant in 2016.

by @ 1:28 pm. Filed under Marco Rubio, Presidential History, Republican Party, Rick Santorum, Scott Walker

April 28, 2015

Acceptability and the Big Three

The Cook Political Report, run by Charlie Cook, is one of the most well-respected political organizations in the country — not to mention one of the most impressively accurate in its electoral predictions. So we should all sit up and take note when they publish an article by their national editor, Amy Walter, with this sentence:

At the end of the day, when you put all the assets and liabilities on the table, it’s hard to see anyone but Rubio, Bush or Walker as the ultimate nominee.

That may seem like a no-brainer to some of us, but in a field that will potentially have 20 challengers, for a prediction made ten months before any actual voting takes place, and for such a reputable organization, this qualifies as a pretty significant assertion.

The futures betting sites (or what’s left of them after Intrade got shut down after the last presidential election) generally agree with Ms. Walter. Sites like PredictWise and Betfair give the trio of Rubio, Bush, and Walker a combined 70% chance at the nomination. (Bush currently comes in at 31%, with Rubio at 20 and Walker at 19.) In fact, the only other two candidates who are even given more than a 2% shot are Rand Paul (4%) and Mike Huckabee (6%).

In the latest Quinnipiac poll (a survey where Rubio, Bush, and Walker have all taken a turn leading the pack in the past several months), we can see just how strong the support for the trio is: they are the only three candidates in double digits in the topline results. But it goes even further than that: when Bush supporters were asked who their second choice was, Rubio and Walker were the only ones in double digits again (at 18% and 12%, respectively). When Walker supporters were asked their second choice, Rubio and Bush again clock in as #1 and #2, with 20% and 12% respectively.

In other words, if you chop of one of the three heads of this hydra, the others will only get stronger.

That’s a good reason to predict that one of those three will end up as the Republican nominee. It’s also one of the reasons I will go on record as predicting this primary will be less divisive than many think it will be.

With twenty candidates, it’s easy to imagine a scenario where the party splinters, messy intraparty fighting breaks out, and a brokered convention becomes a reality in Cleveland. Every slice of the Republican electorate will back their preferred candidate until the bitter end, with primary and caucus winners walking away with less than 20% of the vote. It’s going to be a messy, bitter fight, right?

I don’t think so.

A comparison between our potentially massive 2016 field of candidates and the fields of 2008 and 2012 is quite instructive on this point. In 2008, the three-headed frontrunning hydra was comprised of Rudy Giuliani, John McCain, and Mitt Romney. None of the three satisfied the grassroots side of the party — who could forget the campaigns against “Rudy McRomney”? The unease with the three moderate frontrunners led to a shifting groundswell of support, first for Sam Brownback, then for Mike Huckabee, and finally in the epic failure that was the Fred Thompson campaign. Eventually, the activist side of the party gave in to McCain’s inevitable nomination, but not before Huckabee stayed in far longer than he should have (“I didn’t major in math, I majored in God,” anyone?), leaving lasting wounds in the party.

And in 2012, the field only had one legitimate frontrunner: it was Mitt Romney versus everyone else. Some commentators even referred to the GOP primary as “Mitt and the Munchkins.” The fact that Governor Romney had to expend so much effort, time, and resources to dispatch ridiculously weak candidates like Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich displayed again how deeply uneasy and dissatisfied the party was with the GOP frontrunner. The White Knight candidacy of Rick Perry is also illustrative of this fact; likewise, many folks were pining for Mike Huckabee, Sarah Palin, Mitch Daniels, Paul Ryan, Jeb Bush, Haley Barbour, or Chris Christie to enter the race late into the campaign.

Our 2016 frontrunners stand in stark contrast to those of 2008 and 2012. In fact, after two elections where “dissatisfied” was the word most often used to describe the field, the opposite might be said of 2016. At this early stage, it seems everyone could be quite satisfied. The establishment-type folks who never like Romney find a champion in Jeb Bush — but even if Bush falters, they are okay with Rubio and Walker. The grassroots folks who never trusted McCain or Romney are finding plenty to like in Walker and Rubio. Even if they may be backing Cruz or Huckabee or Perry right now, when those candidates fall short those voters are generally okay with Walker or Rubio as well.

In 2016, there will be little yearning for a white knight candidate — partially because the field will be so large to start with, but mostly because the three frontrunners are acceptable to the varying factions in the GOP. And so this primary campaign will take on a different look: there will be no “flavor-of-the-month” candidates this time around because voters will not be attempting to find acceptable alternatives. There will be the big three, Bush and Rubio and Walker, who will ebb and flow, but remain the big three. And there will be movement in the second and third tier candidates below them as candidates like Huckabee and Cruz and Perry catch fire and cool off, but that movement will do little to impact the ultimate outcome of the race.

As Amy Walter put it, at this point in the Republican primary race it’s hard to see anyone other than Rubio, Bush, or Walker as the ultimate nominee.

April 26, 2015

Poll Watch: Fox News 2016 Presidential Survey

  • Hillary Clinton (D) 46% {47%} [47%] (51%) {52%} [51%]
  • Rand Paul (R) 43% {45%} [44%] (40%) {41%} [42%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 45% {45%} [48%] (49%) {52%} [51%] (51%)
  • Jeb Bush (R) 41% {45%} [43%] (42%) {39%} [42%] (38%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 46% {47%}
  • Marco Rubio (R) 42% {43%}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 47% {48%} (52%)
  • Ted Cruz (R) 42% {42%} (36%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 46% {48%}
  • Scott Walker (R) 40% {42%}

National survey of 1,012 registered voters was conducted April 19-21, 2015 under the joint direction of Anderson Robbins Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R). The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted March 29-31, 2015 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted January 25-27, 2015 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted December 7-9, 2014 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted July 20-22, 2014 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 13-15, 2014 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 2-4, 2014 are in parentheses.

Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 4:00 am. Filed under 2016, Hillary Clinton, Poll Watch, Republican Party

April 25, 2015

Poll Watch: Fox News 2016 Republican Nomination Survey

Fox News 2016 GOP Nomination Poll

  • Marco Rubio 13% [8%] (5%) {9%} [8%] (8%)
  • Scott Walker 12% [15%] (9%) {4%} [5%] (6%)
  • Rand Paul 10% [9%] (13%) {11%} [14%] (11%)
  • Jeb Bush 9% [12%] (15%) {12%} [14%] (12%)
  • Mike Huckabee 9% [10%] (13%)
  • Ted Cruz 8% [10%] (4%) {9%} [7%] (12%)
  • Ben Carson 6% [11%] (10%)
  • Chris Christie 6% [4%] (6%) {10%} [15%] (16%)
  • Donald Trump 5% [3%]
  • John Kasich 2% [1%] (2%) {2%}
  • Rick Perry 2% [3%] (4%) {12%} [5%] (3%)
  • Bobby Jindal 1% [2%] (3%) {4%} [2%]
  • Lindsey Graham 1% [0%] (1%)
  • George Pataki 1% [1%]
  • Rick Santorum 1% [2%] (2%) {3%} [5%] (3%)
  • Carly Fiorina 0% [1%]

National survey of 383 likely Republican primary voters was conducted April 19-21, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 5 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted March 29-31, 2015 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted January 25-27, 2015 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted July 20-22, 2014 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 13-15, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted December 14-16, 2013 are in parentheses.

Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 4:00 am. Filed under 2016, Marco Rubio, Poll Watch, Republican Party

April 24, 2015

The Twenty Republicans Who Want to be President – And When They’ll Announce

There are, give or take a few less serious candidates, twenty people who want to be the Republican nominee for President in 2016. Three of them have already officially announced their intentions. Three more have leaked the dates of their upcoming announcements, and still another nine have hinted at when they will announce.

Here’s what we know:

March 22 Ted Cruz
April 7 Rand Paul
April 13 Marco Rubio
May 4 Ben Carson
Carly Fiorina
May 5 Mike Huckabee
”Late April at the earliest” Mike Pence
May Lindsey Graham
”Late spring” Rick Santorum
”Late spring or early summer” Chris Christie
”May or June” Rick Perry
June Bobby Jindal
June Donald Trump
”This summer” Bob Ehrlich
Summer (after legislative session) Scott Walker
Unknown Jeb Bush
John Kasich
Peter King
George Pataki
Rick Snyder


This has the potential to be the largest field in a primary campaign in history. Of course, not all 20 people on that list will decide to run, but the question at the moment seems to be: at this rate, who will decide to sit it out? Huckabee is staffing up, Perry is making hires, Christie looked like he wouldn’t run for awhile but now seems to be back in the mix, Peter King says he knows he can’t win but wants to run anyway just to stop Rand Paul and Ted Cruz… really, out of that list Rick Snyder and Bob Ehrlich are the two who seem least likely to run. Even if you have five decide not to run, that still leaves you with an incredible 15 candidates vying for the Republican nomination.

The other thing a list like this serves to highlight is the impossibility debate moderators are going to have once the calendar flips to August. How do you get 15-20 candidates on a stage — and then, how do you allow them to say anything substantive in the incredibly limited amount of time each of them will have?

Historically, of course, several candidates drop out of the race in the summer months, and several more drop out in the fall and winter leading up to the Iowa caucuses. So now, it’s prediction time: how many candidates from the list above will end up running? Who will compete in the Iowa Straw Poll? Who will be on stage for the first debate? And who will make it all the way to the Iowa caucuses?

by @ 10:00 am. Filed under 2016, Republican Party

Poll Watch: Quinnipiac 2016 Presidential Survey

Quinnipiac 2016 Presidential Poll

  • Hillary Clinton (D) 45% [46%] [50%]
  • Marco Rubio (R) 43% [41%] [34%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 46% [47%] (46%) {49%} [49%] (48%) {49%} [53%] (50%) {49%}
  • Rand Paul (R) 42% [41%] (41%) {40%} [39%] (41%) {40%} [36%] (38%) {41%}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 45% [46%] (43%) {47%} [46%] (41%) {42%} [49%] (46%) [45%]
  • Chris Christie (R) 40% [39%] (42%) {38%} [38%] (42%){43%} [36%] (40%) [37%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 47% [47%] (46%) {49%}
  • Mike Huckabee (R) 42% [40%] (41%) {40%}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 46% [48%]
  • Scott Walker (R) 41% [39%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 48% [48%] (48%) [50%] (50%) {51%} [54%]
  • Ted Cruz (R) 41% [38%] (37%) [35%] (37%) {36%} [31%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 46% [45%] (46%) {48%} [49%] (48%) {48%}
  • Jeb Bush (R) 39% [42%] (41%) {41%} [38%] (39%) {40%}
 National survey of 1,353 registered voters was conducted April 16-21, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 2.7 percentage points.  Party ID: 32% [29%] (30%) {31%} [29%] (31%) {32%} [35%] (32%) {33%} [34%] Democrat; 25% [32%] (31%) {26%} [26%] (26%) {26%} [24%] (23%) {27%} [25%] Republican; 34% [28%] (27%) {35%} [36%] (34%) {35%} [31%] (35%) {33%} [34%] Independent; 9% [11%] (12%) {7%} [9%] (9%) {7%} [9%] (9%) {7%} [7%] Other/Don’t know. Race: 73% [73%] (74%) {73%} [74%] (74%) {72%} [72%] White; 12% [13%] (12%) {13%} [11%] (12%) {12%} [12%] Black; 6% [7%] (7%) {7%} [8%] (7%) {7%} [8%] Hispanic; 8% [7%] (7%) {8%} [7%] (6%) {8%} [8%] Other. Results from the poll conducted February 26 – March 2, 2015 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted November 18-23, 2014 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted June 24-30, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted January 15-19, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted December 3-9, 2013 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted November 6-11, 2013 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 23-29, 2013 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted June 28 – July 8, 2013 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted May 22-28, 2013 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 27 – March 4, 2013 are in square brackets.

Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 9:00 am. Filed under 2016, Democrats, Hillary Clinton, Poll Watch, Republican Party

Poll Watch: Quinnipiac 2016 Republican Nomination Survey

Quinnipiac 2016 GOP Nomination Poll

  • Marco Rubio 15% (5%) {3%} [6%] (8%) {7%} [12%] (19%)
  • Jeb Bush 13% (16%) {14%} [10%] (11%) {11%} [11%] (10%)
  • Scott Walker 11% (18%) {6%} [8%] (6%) {5%} [4%] (2%)
  • Ted Cruz 9% (6%) {5%} [8%] (9%) {13%} [10%]
  • Rand Paul 8% (6%) {8%} [11%] (13%) {14%} [17%] (15%)
  • Chris Christie 7% (8%) {11%} [10%] (12%) {17%} [13%] (14%)
  • Mike Huckabee 7% (8%) {7%} [10%]
  • Ben Carson 3% (7%) {9%}
  • Rick Perry 3% (1%) {3%} [3%]
  • Lindsey Graham 2% (1%)
  • John Kasich 2% (1%) {2%} [2%] (2%) {2%}
  • Rick Santorum 2% (2%) {2%} [2%]
  • Carly Fiorina 1%
  • Bobby Jindal 1% (2%) {3%} [1%] (3%) {3%} [3%] (3%)
  • Don’t know 14% (17%) {19%} [20%] (22%) {17%} [19%] (18%)

Survey of 567 registered Republican and GOP-leaning voters was conducted April 16-21, 2015.  The margin of error is +/- 4.1 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted February 26 – March 2, 2015 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted November 18-23, 2014 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted June 24-30, 2014 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 15-19, 2014 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted December 3-9, 2013 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 23-29, 2013 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 26 – April 1, 2013 are in parentheses.

Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 4:00 am. Filed under 2016, Marco Rubio, Poll Watch, Republican Party

April 23, 2015

Poll Watch: PPP (D) New Hampshire 2016 Presidential Survey

PPP (D) New Hampshire 2016 Presidential Poll

  • Hillary Clinton (D) 49% {50%} [51%] (52%)
  • Rand Paul (R) 40% {37%} [41%] (41%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 49%
  • Scott Walker (R) 40%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 50% (52%)
  • Marco Rubio (R) 38% (38%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 51%
  • Rick Perry (R) 38%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 51%
  • Ben Carson (R) 38%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 51%
  • Mike Huckabee (R) 38%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 49% {49%} [49%]
  • Jeb Bush (R) 36% {38%} [40%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 51% {43%} [43%]
  • Chris Christie (R) 36% {39%} [39%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 52% {51%} [50%]
  • Ted Cruz (R) 37% {32%} [38%]
  • Joe Biden (D) 44%
  • Scott Walker (R) 40%
  • Elizabeth Warren (D) 45%
  • Scott Walker (R) 40%

Survey of 747 New Hampshire voters was conducted April 9-13, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 3.6 percentage points. Party ID: 30% {27%} [30%] (29%) Republican; 28% {28%} [31%] (32%) Democrat; 43% {44%} [39%] (39%) Independent/Other. Political ideology: 32% {34%} [33%] (31%) Moderate; 21% {18%} [19%] (18%) Somewhat liberal; 20% {25%} [21%] (23%) Somewhat conservative; 15% {10%} [12%] (13%) Very liberal; 12% {13%} [15%] (15%) Very conservative.Results from the poll conducted January 9-12, 2014 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 13-16, 2013 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 19-21, 2013 are in parentheses.

Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

April 22, 2015

Poll Watch: Quinnipiac New Jersey 2016 Republican Primary Survey

Quinnipiac New Jersey 2016 GOP Primary Poll

  • Chris Christie 22% (24%)
  • Scott Walker 14% (4%)
  • Jeb Bush 11% (13%)
  • Rand Paul 9% (5%)
  • Marco Rubio 7% (3%)
  • Ted Cruz 6% (6%)
  • Mike Huckabee 4% (4%)
  • Bobby Jindal 3% (2%)
  • Ben Carson 2% (6%)
  • Carly Fiorina 1%
  • John Kasich 1% (0%)
  • Lindsey Graham 0%
  • Rick Perry 0% (1%)
  • Rick Santorum 0% (0%)

Survey of 444 registered Republican voters was conducted April 9-14, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 4.7 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted January 15-19, 2015 are in parentheses.

Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 7:00 am. Filed under 2016, Chris Christie, Poll Watch, Republican Party

Poll Watch: Gravis Insights/Townhall (R) Iowa 2016 Presidential Survey

  • Hillary Clinton (D) 44% {45%}
  • Mike Huckabee (R) 43% {40%}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 44% {44%}
  • Rand Paul (R) 43% {39%}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 42% {45%}
  • Chris Christie (R) 39% {35%}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 43% {43%} [42.6%] (41%)
  • Jeb Bush (R) 40% {37%} [43.5%] (41%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 45%
  • Marco Rubio (R) 42%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 46% {47%}
  • Scott Walker (R) 41% {41%}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 44%
  • Carly Fiorina (R) 37%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 47%
  • Ted Cruz (R) 40%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 45%
  • Ben Carson (R) 37%

Survey of 1,259 registered Iowa voters was conducted April 13, 2015 The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted February 12-13, 2015 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted October 20-21, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted September 29-30, 2014 are in parentheses.

Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 4:00 am. Filed under 2016, Hillary Clinton, Poll Watch, Republican Party

April 21, 2015

Poll Watch: Gravis Insights/Townhall (R) Iowa 2016 Republican Caucus Survey

Gravis Insights/Townhall (R) Iowa 2016 GOP Caucus Poll

  • Jeb Bush 16% [10%] (14%)
  • Scott Walker 13% [24%] (10%)
  • Marco Rubio 12% [7%] (4%)
  • Rand Paul 9% [10%] (8%)
  • Ben Carson 9% [5%]
  • Mike Huckabee 8% [7%] (9%)
  • Ted Cruz 6% [4%] (7%)
  • Chris Christie 5% [9%] (5%)
  • Carly Fiorina 3% [3%]
  • Rick Santorum 2% [6%]
  • Unsure 17% [15%] (18%)

Survey of 388 Iowa Republican voters was conducted April 13, 2015.The margin of error is +/- 5 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted February 12-13, 2015 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted January 5-7, 2015 are in parentheses.

Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 7:45 pm. Filed under 2016, Iowa Caucuses, Jeb Bush, Poll Watch, Republican Party

Poll Watch: CNN/ORC 2016 Republican Nomination Survey

CNN/ORC 2016 GOP Nomination Poll

  • Jeb Bush 17% [16%] (14%) {23%} [14%] (8%) {12%} [13%](9%) {10%} [6%] (10%)
  • Scott Walker 12% [13%] (11%) {4%} [5%] (5%) {5%} [7%]
  • Rand Paul 11% [12%] (10%) {6%} [8%] (12%) {14%} [13%](16%) {13%} [13%] (13%)
  • Marco Rubio 11% [7%] (5%) {5%} [3%] (6%) {8%} [6%] (5%) {9%} [9%] (9%)
  • Mike Huckabee 9% [10%] (16%) {6%} [10%] (12%) {11%} [10%] (10%) {14%}
  • Ted Cruz 7% [4%] (3%) {4%} [7%] (8%) {9%} [7%] (8%) {8%} [10%] (7%)
  • Ben Carson 4% [9%] (8%) {7%} [11%]
  • Chris Christie 4% [7%] (7%) {13%} [9%] (13%) {8%} [9%] (8%) {10%} [24%] (17%)
  • Rick Perry 3% [4%] (3%) {4%} [5%] (11%) {6%} [8%] (11%) {8%} [7%] (6%)
  • Rick Santorum 3% [1%] (3%) {2%} [2%] (3%) {4%} [2%] (3%) {4%} [6%] (5%)
  • Carly Fiorina 2% [0%] (1%)
  • Lindsey Graham 2% [1%] (1%)
  • Bobby Jindal 2% [1%] (1%) {4%} [1%]
  • John Kasich 2% [2%] (2%) {3%} [3%]
  • George Pataki 0%

Survey of 435 Republicans and GOP-leaning Independents was conducted April 16-19, 2015.  The margin of error is +/- 4.5 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted March 13-15, 2015 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted February 12-15, 2015 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted December 18-21, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted November 21-23, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted July 18-20, 2014 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted May 29 – June 1, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted May 2-4, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted March 7-9, 2014 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted January 31 – February 2, 2014 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 18-20, 2013 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 6-8, 2013 are in parentheses.

Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 4:00 am. Filed under 2016, Jeb Bush, Poll Watch, Republican Party

April 17, 2015

Poll Watch: Marquette University Law School Wisconsin 2016 Republican Primary Survey

  • Scott Walker 40.0% [28.9%] (16.1%)
  • Rand Paul 10.3% [8.4%] (6.9%)
  • Jeb Bush 7.9% [2.4%] (4.6%)
  • Ted Cruz 6.0% [4.3%]
  • Chris Christie 5.8% [8.6%] (10.6%)
  • Mike Huckabee 5.1%
  • Ben Carson 5.0%
  • Marco Rubio 3.8% [9.3%] (21.2%)
  • Bobby Jindal 2.3% (0.8%)
  • Rick Santorum 1.9%
  • Carly Fiorina 0.5%
  • Rick Perry 0.5%
  • Someone else 1.7% [4.2%] (1.6%)
  • Don’t know 8.9% [8.9%] (10.5%)
 Survey of 319 registered Republican and GOP-leaning Independent voters was conducted April 7-10, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 5.6 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted October 21-24, 2013 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 6-9, 2013are in parentheses.

Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 7:00 am. Filed under 2016, Poll Watch, Republican Party

April 16, 2015

Poll Watch: PPP (D) New Hampshire 2016 Republican Primary Survey

PPP (D) New Hampshire 2016 GOP Primary Poll

  • Scott Walker 24% {3%}
  • Ted Cruz 14% (10%) {9%}
  • Rand Paul 12% (10%) {12%}
  • Jeb Bush 10% (15%) {12%}
  • Chris Christie 8% (11%) {24%}
  • Marco Rubio 8% (7%) {8%}
  • Ben Carson 7% (15%)
  • Mike Huckabee 7% (11%) {11%}
  • Rick Perry 4% (3%)
  • Not sure 7% (11%) {13%}
Survey of 358 Republican primary voters was conducted April 9-13, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 5.2 percentage points. Party ID: 62% (61%) Republican; 38% (38%) Independent/Other; 0% (2%) Democrat.  Political ideology: 39% (40%) Somewhat conservative; 31% (26%) Moderate; 22% (25%) Very conservative; 6% (6%)Somewhat liberal; 3% (2%) Very liberal. Results from the poll conducted November 1-3, 2014 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted January 9-12, 2014 are in curly brackets.

Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 7:00 am. Filed under 2016, New Hampshire Primary, Poll Watch, Republican Party, Scott Walker

Poll Watch: Winthrop University South Carolina 2016 Republican Primary Survey

  • Scott Walker 13.6%
  • Jeb Bush 12.7%
  • Ted Cruz 8.1%
  • Lindsey Graham 7.6%
  • Rand Paul 6.2%
  • Chris Christie 5.0%
  • Ben Carson 4.9% 
  • Mike Huckabee 4.9%
  • Marco Rubio 4.0%
  • Rick Perry 1.9% 
  • Donald Trump 1.9%
  • Bobby Jindal 0.9% 
  • Rick Santorum 0.3%
  • John Bolton 0.2% 
  • Other 1.4%
  • Not sure 25.1%

Survey of 956 likely GOP primary voters was conducted April 4-12, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 3.2 percentage points.

Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 4:00 am. Filed under 2016, Poll Watch, Republican Party, Scott Walker

April 13, 2015

Poll Watch: NH1/Reach Communications (R) New Hampshire 2016 Republican Primary Survey

NH1/Reach Communications (R) New Hampshire 2016 GOP Primary Poll

  • Scott Walker 22.7% [21.2%] (8%)
  • Jeb Bush 16.5% [14.4%] (11%)
  • Rand Paul 14.9% [8.3%] (7%)
  • Ted Cruz 8.9% [3.3%] (4%)
  • Donald Trump 8.0%
  • Marco Rubio 7.0% [5.4%] (3%)
  • Ben Carson 7.0% [8.2%] (7%)
  • Chris Christie 5.8% [7.0%] (8%)
  • Mike Huckabee 5.5% [6.8%] (5%)
  • Carly Fiorina 1.9% [1.7%]
  • Rick Perry 1.6% [2.7%]
  • Someone else/Undecided [18.8%] (18%)

Survey of 1,064 highly likely GOP primary voters was conducted April 8-9, 2015.  The margin of error is +/- 3.0 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted February 2-3, 2015 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 21, 2015 are in parentheses.

Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 10:00 am. Filed under 2016, New Hampshire Primary, Poll Watch, Republican Party, Scott Walker

April 12, 2015

Poll Watch: PPP (D) North Carolina 2016 Republican Primary Survey

PPP (D) North Carolina 2016 GOP Primary Poll

  • Jeb Bush 19% {17%} [14%] (15%) {17%} [15%] (18%) {12%} [15%] (14%) {15%} [16%] (9%)
  • Scott Walker 16% {24%} [14%] {5%} (7%) {6%} [4%] (3%) {5%} [1%]
  • Ted Cruz 11% {3%} [6%] (5%) {12%} [17%] (12%) {14%} [8%] (11%) {12%} [12%]
  • Mike Huckabee 11% {15%} [13%] (14%) {17%} [19%] (22%) {19%} [20%] (15%)
  • Marco Rubio 11% {7%} (4%) {5%} [5%] (5%) {5%} [7%] (9%) {10%} [10%] (21%)
  • Ben Carson 9% {12%} [14%] (19%)
  • Chris Christie 7% {5%} [5%] (14%) {12%} [9%] (12%) {15%} [11%] (17%) {19%} [20%] (10%)
  • Rand Paul 6% {5%} [6%] (5%) {12%} [15%] (9%) {12%} [14%] (14%) {13%} [12%] (6%)
  • Rick Perry 2% {3%} [3%] (7%)
  • Not sure 7% {8%} [9%] (7%) {11%} [9%] (6%) {12%} [9%] (13%) {11%} [13%] (8%)

Survey of 351 Republican primary voters was conducted April 2-5, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 5.2 percentage points. Political ideology: 39% {36%} [39%] (38%) {37%} [35%] (32%) {35%} [33%] (40%) {39%} [36%] (35%) Somewhat conservative; 37% {38%} [35%] (39%) {40%} [45%] (39%) {37%} [35%] (38%) {37%} [36%] (44%) Very conservative; 18% {19%} [20%] (18%) {20%} [13%] (21%) {20%} [22%] (16%) {16%} [21%] (13%) Moderate; 5% {4%} [4%] (5%) {2%} [4%] (6%) {4%} [7%] (4%) {7%} [4%] (6%) Somewhat liberal; 1% {3%} [2%] (1%) {1%} [4%] (3%) {3%} [3%] (2%) {1%} [3%] (1%) Very liberal. Results from the poll conducted February 24-26, 2015 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted January 29-31, 2015 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted December 4-7, 2014 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted May 9-11, 2014 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 26-28, 2014 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 3-6, 2014 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted March 6-9, 2014 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 6-9, 2014 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 9-12, 2014 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted December 5-8, 2013 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 8-11, 2013 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted December 6-9, 2012are in parentheses.

Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 4:13 am. Filed under 2016, Jeb Bush, Poll Watch, Republican Party

April 11, 2015

Poll Watch: Quinnipiac Virginia 2016 Presidential Survey

  • Hillary Clinton (D) 47% [44%] (48%) {49%} (51%)
  • Rand Paul (R) 43% [42%] (42%) {40%} (37%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 46% [44%] (45%) {42%} [46%] (45%)
  • Chris Christie (R) 40% [39%] (41%) {41%} [37%] (40%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 47% [42%] (47%)
  • Jeb Bush (R) 40% [42%] (39%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 47% [45%]
  • Scott Walker (R) 40% [40%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 48% {51%}
  • Marco Rubio (R) 40% {38%}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 48% [44%] (49%)
  • Mike Huckabee (R) 40% [41%] (41%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 49% [53%]
  • Ted Cruz (R) 39% [34%]
 Survey of 961 Virginia voters was conducted March 29 – April 7, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 3.2 percentage points.  Party ID: 32% [30%] (33%) {31%} [32%] (31%) Democrat; 26% [26%] (24%) {26%} [22%] (26%) Republican; 30% [34%] (35%) {35%} [37%] (36%) Independent; 11% [10%] (8%) {9%} [10%] (8%) Other/Don’t know. Gender: 52% [53%] (54%) {50%} [52%] (53%) Female; 48% [47%] (46%) {50%} [48%] (47%) Male.  Race: 71% [71%] (72%) {70%} [69%] (71%) White; 19% [18%] (17%) {16%} [17%] (17%) Black; 2% [3%] (3%) {4%} [4%] (4%) Hispanic; 8% [8%] (8%) {10%} [10%] (9%) Other/Don’t know. Click here to view crosstabs. Results from the poll conducted February 5-15, 2015 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 19-24, 2014 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted September 9-15, 2013 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted August 14-19, 2013 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 11-15, 2013 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted May 8-13, 2013 are in curly brackets.

Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 9:00 am. Filed under 2016, Hillary Clinton, Poll Watch, Republican Party

April 10, 2015

Poll Watch: Quinnipiac Iowa 2016 Presidential Survey

Quinnipiac Iowa 2016 Presidential Poll

  • Rand Paul (R) 43% {37%} [40%] (39%) {44%} (42%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 42% {45%} [46%] (49%) {45%} (46%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 42% {45%} [46%]
  • Mike Huckabee (R) 42% {38%} [39%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 41% {45%} [49%] (51%) {47%}
  • Jeb Bush (R) 40% {35%} [36%] (37%) {40%}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 41% {44%} [44%] (48%) {40%} [41%]
  • Chris Christie (R) 39% {34%} [36%] (35%) {45%} [41%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 43% (48%)
  • Marco Rubio (R) 40% (37%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 43% (51%) {48%}
  • Ted Cruz (R) 40% (35%) {41%}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 44% {45%}
  • Scott Walker (R) 40% {35%}
Survey of 948 Iowa voters was conducted March 29 – April 7, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 3.2 percentage points.  Party ID: 30% {26%} [27%] (25%) {28%} [27%] Republican; 29% {28%} [29%] (28%) {27%} [29%] Democrat; 37% {40%} [40%] (39%) {40%} [40%] Independent; 5% {7%} [5%] (7%) {4%} [4%] Other/Don’t know. Gender: 51% {52%} [52%] {52%} [51%] Female; 49% {48%} [48%] {48%} [49%] Male.  Race: 93% {92%} [94%] {92%} [93%] White; 2% {2%} [2%] {2%} [3%] Black; 2% {2%} [1%] {2%} [1%] Hispanic; 2% {3%} [3%] {3%} [4%] Other/Don’t know.  Click here to view crosstabs. Results from the poll conducted February 5-15, 2015 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted June 12-16, 2014 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 5-10, 2014 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted December 10-15, 2013 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 15-17, 2013 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted May 15-21, 2013 are in parentheses.

Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 10:00 am. Filed under 2016, Hillary Clinton, Mike Huckabee, Poll Watch, Rand Paul, Republican Party

April 9, 2015

Poll Watch: PPP (D) 2016 National Presidential Survey

PPP (D) 2016 National Presidential Poll

  • Hillary Clinton (D) 46% {48%} (48%) {45%} [51%] (49%) {49%} [51%]
  • Marco Rubio (R) 43% {41%} (40%) {40%} [41%] (42%) {41%} [37%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 46% {47%} [46%] (47%) {46%} [48%] (49%) {47%} [51%] (49%)
  • Rand Paul (R) 42% {40%} [39%] (42%) {43%} [43%] (37%) {39%} [41%] (43%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 46% {48%} [45%]
  • Scott Walker (R) 42% {40%} [42%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 47% {48%}
  • Ben Carson (R) 42% {40%}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 46% {50%} [45%] (47%) {45%} [48%] (48%) {44%} {49%} [51%]
  • Jeb Bush (R) 40% {40%} [41%] (44%) {43%} [43%] (39%) {41%} {43%} [37%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 49% {50%} (51%) {47%} [49%] (50%)
  • Ted Cruz (R) 43% {40%} (40%) {41%} [41%] (33%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 48% {50%} (49%) {46%} [48%]
  • Mike Huckabee (R) 41% {41%} (42%) {43%} [42%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 46% {48%} [45%] (46%) {45%} [42%](44%) {43%} [47%] (46%) {46%} [44%]
  • Chris Christie (R) 37% {40%} [40%] (42%) {43%} [45%] (39%) {42%} [44%] (42%) {41%} [42%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 48% {48%}
  • Rick Perry (R) 39% {41%}
  • Scott Walker (R) 46%
  • Joe Biden (D) 40%
  • Scott Walker (R) 43%
  • Elizabeth Warren (D) 39%

National survey of 989 registered voters was conducted March 26-31, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 3.1 percentage points. Party ID: 39% {40%} [39%] (41%) {39%} [40%] (38%) {41%} [41%] (38%) {42%} [43%] (44%) Democrat; 31% {34%} [37%] (34%) {36%} [34%] (34%) {32%} [33%] (34%) {33%} [34%] (32%) Republican; 31% {26%} [23%] (26%) {26%} [26%] (28%) {26%} [26%] (28%) {25%} [23%] (24%) Independent/Other.  Results from the poll conducted February 20-22, 2015 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted January 20-21, 2015 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted March 6-9, 2014 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted January 23-26, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted December 12-15, 2013 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted October 29-31, 2013 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted July 19-21, 2013 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 6-9, 2013 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 27-30, 2013 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted January 31 – February 3, 2013 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 3-6, 2013 are in square brackets.

Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 10:00 am. Filed under 2016, Democrats, Hillary Clinton, Poll Watch, Republican Party, Scott Walker

Poll Watch: Quinnipiac Florida 2016 Republican Primary Survey

Quinnipiac Florida 2016 GOP Primary Poll

  • Jeb Bush 24% [32%] (21%) {27%} [25%] (22%)
  • Scott Walker 15% [9%] (2%) {4%} [5%] (2%)
  • Marco Rubio 12% [15%] (18%) {11%} [16%] (18%)
  • Ben Carson 8% [8%]
  • Ted Cruz 7% [4%] (10%) {6%} [9%] (12%)
  • Mike Huckabee 6% [11%] (7%) {6%}
  • Rand Paul 4% [3%] (8%) {14%} [11%] (9%)
  • Rick Perry 2% [1%] (5%)
  • Chris Christie 1% [3%] (6%) {7%} [9%] (14%)
  • John Kasich 1% [0%] (1%)
  • Lindsey Graham 0%
  • Bobby Jindal 0% [3%] (1%) {1%} [3%] (3%)
  • Rick Santorum 0% [3%] (1%)

Survey of 428 registered Republicans was conducted March 17-28, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 4.7 percentage points. Click here to view crosstabs. Results from the poll conducted January 22 – February 1, 2015 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted July 17-21, 2014 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted April 23-28, 2014 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 22-27, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted November 12-17, 2013 are in parentheses.

Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 8:00 am. Filed under 2016, Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, Poll Watch, Republican Party

April 8, 2015

Poll Watch: Quinnipiac Pennsylvania 2016 Republican Primary Survey

  • Scott Walker 14% (6%)
  • Jeb Bush 9% (12%)
  • Ben Carson 9% (8%)
  • Rick Santorum 9% (8%)
  • Ted Cruz 7% (6%)
  • Marco Rubio 7% (4%)
  • Mike Huckabee 6% (10%)
  • Rand Paul 6% (3%)
  • Chris Christie 5% (11%)
  • Rick Perry 3% (1%)
  • John Kasich 2% (3%)
  • Bobby Jindal 1% (2%)
  • Lindsey Graham 0%

Survey of 442 registered Republicans was conducted March 17-28, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 4.7 percentage points. Click here to view crosstabs. Results from the poll conducted January 22 – February 1, 2015 are in parentheses.

Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 10:00 am. Filed under 2016, Poll Watch, Republican Party, Scott Walker

April 7, 2015

Poll Watch: Quinnipiac Ohio 2016 Republican Primary Survey

Quinnipiac Ohio 2016 GOP Primary Poll

  • John Kasich 20% (14%)
  • Ted Cruz 9% (6%)
  • Mike Huckabee 9% (7%)
  • Scott Walker 9% (11%)
  • Jeb Bush 8% (10%)
  • Ben Carson 8% (8%)
  • Rand Paul 7% (10%)
  • Chris Christie 5% (6%)
  • Marco Rubio 5% (4%)
  • Bobby Jindal 1% (1%)
  • Rick Perry 1% (1%)
  • Rick Santorum 1% (1%)
  • Lindsey Graham 0%

Survey of 404 registered Republicans was conducted March 17-28, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 4.9 percentage points. Click here to view crosstabs. Results from the poll conducted January 22 – February 1, 2015 are in parentheses.

Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 8:00 am. Filed under 2016, John Kasich, Poll Watch, Republican Party

April 6, 2015

Poll Watch: Gravis Insights/Townhall (R) Nevada 2016 Presidential Survey

Gravis Insights/Townhall (R) Nevada 2016 Presidential Poll

  • Hillary Clinton (D) 49% (49%)
  • Scott Walker (R) 41% (43%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 50% (49%)
  • Rand Paul (R) 42% (42%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 48% (47%)
  • Chris Christie (R) 38% (38%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 48% (50%)
  • Jeb Bush (R) 38% (37%)

Survey of 850 registered voters was conducted March 27, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted February 21-22, 2015 are in parentheses.

Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 10:00 am. Filed under 2016, Hillary Clinton, Poll Watch, Republican Party

Poll Watch: PPP (D) 2016 Republican Nomination Survey

PPP (D) 2016 GOP Nomination Poll

  • Scott Walker 20% [25%] (11%)
  • Jeb Bush 17% [17%] (17%)
  • Ted Cruz 16% [5%] (9%)
  • Ben Carson 10% [18%] (15%)
  • Rand Paul 10% [4%] (4%)
  • Mike Huckabee 6% [10%] (9%)
  • Marco Rubio 6% [3%]
  • Chris Christie 4% [5%] (7%)
  • Rick Perry 3% [3%] (2%)
  • Not sure 8% [11%] (5%)

Survey of 443 Republican primary voters was conducted March 26-31, 2015.  The margin of error is +/- 4.7 percentage points.  Political ideology: 36% [38%] (38%) Somewhat conservative; 34% [38%] (35%) Very conservative; 19% [17%] (21%) Moderate; 8% [6%] (5%) Somewhat liberal; 3% [2%] (1%) Very liberal. Results from the poll conducted February 20-22, 2015 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted January 22-25, 2015 are in parentheses.

Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 8:00 am. Filed under 2016, Poll Watch, Republican Party, Scott Walker

April 5, 2015

Poll Watch: Washington Post/ABC News 2016 Presidential Survey

Washington Post/ABC News 2016 Presidential Poll

  • Hillary Clinton (D) 53% (54%) [53%]
  • Jeb Bush (R) 41% (41%) [41%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 54%
  • Scott Walker (R) 40%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 54%
  • Marco Rubio (R) 39%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 56%
  • Ted Cruz (R) 39%

Survey of registered voters was conducted March 26-29, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted January 12-15, 2015 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted May 29 – June 1, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted April 24-27, 2014 are in square brackets.

Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 4:00 am. Filed under 2016, Hillary Clinton, Poll Watch, Republican Party

April 4, 2015

Poll Watch: ABC News/Washington Post 2016 Republican Nomination Survey

ABC News/Washington Post 2016 GOP Nomination Poll

  • Jeb Bush 21% (14%) {13%} [12%] (18%)
  • Scott Walker 13% (7%) {2%} [5%]
  • Ted Cruz 12% (8%) {4%} [7%] (12%)
  • Mike Huckabee 8% (7%) {12%} [14%]
  • Rand Paul 8% (10%) {12%} [15%] (11%)
  • Marco Rubio 8% (7%) {8%} [6%] (10%)
  • Chris Christie 7% (7%) {8%} [9%] (14%)
  • Ben Carson 6% (8%) {7%}
  • Rick Santorum 2% (3%) {4%}
  • Carly Fiorina 1%
  • Lindsey Graham 1%
  • Bobby Jindal 1% (3%) {2%} [2%]
  • John Kasich 1% (2%) {2%} [1%]
  • Rick Perry 1% (5%) {6%} [5%]

Survey of registered Republican and GOP-leaning voters was conducted March 26-29, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 6 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted December 11-14, 2014 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted October 9-12, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted April 24-27, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted January 20-23, 2014 are in parentheses.

Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 8:00 am. Filed under 2016, Jeb Bush, Poll Watch, Republican Party

April 3, 2015

Poll Watch: Fox News 2016 Republican Nomination Survey

Fox News 2016 GOP Nomination Poll

  • Scott Walker 15% (9%) {4%} [5%] (6%)
  • Jeb Bush 12% (15%) {12%} [14%] (12%)
  • Ben Carson 11% (10%)
  • Ted Cruz 10% (4%) {9%} [7%] (12%)
  • Mike Huckabee 10% (13%)
  • Rand Paul 9% (13%) {11%} [14%] (11%)
  • Marco Rubio 8% (5%) {9%} [8%] (8%)
  • Chris Christie 4% (6%) {10%} [15%] (16%)
  • Rick Perry 3% (4%) {12%} [5%] (3%)
  • Donald Trump 3%
  • Bobby Jindal 2% (3%) {4%} [2%]
  • Rick Santorum 2% (2%) {3%} [5%] (3%)
  • Carly Fiorina 1%
  • John Kasich 1% (2%) {2%}
  • George Pataki 1%
  • Lindsey Graham 0% (1%)

National survey of 379 registered Republicans was conducted March 29-31, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 5 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted January 25-27, 2015 are in parentheses.Results from the poll conducted July 20-22, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted April 13-15, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted December 14-16, 2013 are in parentheses.

Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 11:52 am. Filed under 2016, Poll Watch, Republican Party, Scott Walker

Poll Watch: Fox News 2016 Presidential Survey

  • Hillary Clinton (D) 45% [48%] (49%) {52%} [51%] (51%)
  • Jeb Bush (R) 45% [43%] (42%) {39%} [42%] (38%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 47% [47%] (51%) {52%} [51%]
  • Rand Paul (R) 45% [44%] (40%) {41%} [42%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 47%
  • Marco Rubio (R) 43%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 48% (52%)
  • Ted Cruz (R) 42% (36%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 48%
  • Scott Walker (R) 42%

National survey of 1,025 registered voters was conducted March 29-31, 2015 under the joint direction of Anderson Robbins Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R). The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted January 25-27, 2015 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted December 7-9, 2014 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted July 20-22, 2014 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 13-15, 2014 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 2-4, 2014 are in parentheses.

Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 10:00 am. Filed under 2016, Hillary Clinton, Jeb Bush, Poll Watch, Republican Party

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