October 14, 2014

It’s Complicated

Three weeks from tonight, if current trends hold, the Republican Party appears poised to achieve a solid, yet not overwhelming, victory in this year’s midterm elections. What we’re about to see is not quite a wave, but might best be described as a correction. The red states are red again, while the blue states remain blue, and the purple states seem willing to give Republicans a chance. The Republicans will almost certainly capture the Senate, and possibly do so quite solidly, and may actually attain their greatest majority in the House in several decades. All of this, however, does not suggest a Republican resurgence, but rather a diminishing Democratic government.

If the national zeitgeist were to be put into words right now, it would probably go something like this. Things just don’t feel quite right in America. We’re not exactly doing poorly. We’re not in the midst of a once-in-a-generation economic depression, or a clash of civilizations against a foreign empire. No, instead, the tableau is more complicated. The economy seems to be growing on paper, but it doesn’t quite feel that way on the ground. America’s economic engine is working, but not roaring. The unemployment rate has gone down, but people are still not getting promotions, not getting raises, and working two jobs to keep afloat. There’s no optimism out there. Instead, there’s acceptance of a new normal, and a creeping feeling that it doesn’t have to be this way.

Internationally, America seems to be faced with a number of difficult challenges. These challenges seem like they could have been prevented, but now that they exist, they don’t seem easily reparable. The spread of ISIS in the Middle East, and the presence of Ebola within American borders, shouldn’t have happened, but did, and solutions to these sorts of challenges seem, like the economic picture, complicated.

And then there’s the Democratic government. Democrats like “complicated.” Democrats are all about “complicated,” because Democrats believe that life is inherently complicated, and are always ready and willing to provide complicated solutions that will somehow make things even more complicated. Democrats will be the first to claim that the current complicated state of things is the best of all possible outcomes given what they had to work with.

But again, I think, the current zeitgeist goes something like this. We don’t quite buy that argument. Both parties made that argument before, in the 1970s, and then the 1980s came, and it turned out not to be true, and that America could make a comeback. So maybe, once again, it’s not so simple as to deem the future of America to be complicated. Maybe it’s just that our current leaders don’t have a better answer.

Enter Hillary Clinton. Once thought to be the inevitable 45th President, Mrs. Clinton has been coming down to earth in the polls as of late. Several polls have found her statistically tied with a number of Republicans in Iowa, an all important swing state won by Republicans in 2004, and Democrats in 2008 and 2012. Should other purple states follow suit, the Democrats may find that they have a fight on their hands, as memories of the Clinton years are eclipsed by the nagging feeling that the Democratic government simply doesn’t know what to do to make the country better.

Meanwhile, the Republicans still seem to lack a unified message, or optimistic tone, and continue to search for a national leader that can give the party meaning and purpose in the modern era, a full decade following its last presidential victory. Such a leader is not simply going to have to speak to the GOP base, but actually bring together the hodgepodge of voting blocs that will give Republicans victories in states like Florida, Virginia, Ohio, Colorado, Iowa, and New Hampshire, the purple states last won by George W. Bush.

Asking for a charismatic and optimistic leader who will end up on Mount Rushmore might be a bit much given the prospective field of Republican candidates. And that’s not necessarily a bad thing. After all, Democrats thought they had found the same in Mr. Obama, and look how that turned out. The nation may not be opposed to electing someone with less panache this time around, someone a bit more sober and perhaps just a tad boring, but at the same time, any such leader is still going to find that a personal connection with the American people remains a prerequisite for the presidency.

That personal connection was something that Mr. Romney, who is rumored to be considering yet another run, was never able to attain. Despite winning all three debates with Mr. Obama, Mr. Romney was unable to garner the support of a majority of Americans. The Republican Party, hungry for leadership, appears to be considering Mr. Romney again, but it is still far from clear whether Mr. Romney has the ability to be relatable, and to truly reach through the television screen and have a human moment with the American people.

Contra Mr. Romney is Mr. Huckabee, his former primary opponent, and continued outspoken former governor and cultural conservative. Mr. Huckabee is not lacking in human moments, but may not quite capture the zeitgeist of the era, which isn’t really about cultural conservatism versus cultural liberalism, and which is more about a Democratic government promising stagnation in perpetuity, and an American people that want an optimistic alternative filled with opportunity. Mr. Huckabee’s recent weigh in on same sex marriage, an issue on which the country seems to be moving away from his point of view, probably does represent the former’s governor’s genuine beliefs, but doesn’t necessarily bode well for a presidential campaign.

And then there’s Mr. Bush. The former Florida governor seems to be setting his sights on becoming the third member of the Bush family to find his way into the Oval Office, and, in ways that were unthinkable just six years ago, is beginning to seem to be a reasonable bet for the nomination were he to run. The zeitgeist, acting as confessor, seems to have given the most recent president named Bush absolution, and the nation’s problems no longer seem to be the result of an inept Republican president, but the inevitable woes of a nation that had once believed that peace and prosperity could last forever, with the focus now being on how to regain America’s lost prowess.

Mr. Bush’s argument for the nomination goes something like this: “Republicans, I am you. I am just as competent and intelligent as Mr. Romney, but I can avoid being branded just another rich guy. I proved that in Florida. I am no less pro-life than Mr. Huckabee, but no one can pigeonhole me as a socially conservative former preacher. I can appeal to Latino voters, and my wife and son prove that, and I can do so with the gravitas that my friend Mr. Rubio can’t yet muster. I can improve the country’s economic policies, without coming off as wonkish like Mr. Ryan, and I can do so without scaring seniors. Heck, I governed a state filled with seniors. I can win a majority, unlike Mr. Paul and Mr. Cruz, but I also have no animosity for the followers of Mr. Paul and Mr. Cruz, nor do they for me. I know how to win Florida. I’ll hold North Carolina. I can take back Virginia, because I know how to appeal to the concerns of the military without sounding brazen or hawkish. And we can take back Ohio, because despite my family name, I don’t come off as an elitist. And if we all work together, we can win back the swing voters of the Midwest and the Southwest who instinctively know that we as a nation can do better than this, but who need to hear it from someone who sounds eminently reasonable.”

And that may be what Americans will be looking for in their next president — someone relatable without being a rock star, and someone more competent than charismatic. If so, at least a couple of dark horse contenders who believe that they meet such criteria, such as Mr. Walker of Wisconsin, and Mr. Kasich of Ohio, may also begin to more seriously look at a country in need of a leader whose primary claim to fame will be uncomplicating that which is hopelessly complicated.

Then there’s Mr. Christie, a man who appears to be eyeing the White House, despite his own path to the Oval Office being quite complicated in and of itself. Mr. Christie most assuredly has the charisma and the ability to personally connect with the American people and to make a formidable candidate in a national election. But where does Mr. Christie find his base? Is Mr. Christie going to bring lots of new voters into Republican primaries, tilting the culturally conservative Iowa caucus or the gritty, provincial, slightly paleoconservative New Hampshire primaries towards his own personal version of conservatism and Republicanism? If so, Mr. Christie has no time to spare in starting to build such a coalition, and in coming up with the ideas on which this coalition is to be built, neither of which has happened yet. Despite a personality that is larger than life, Mr. Christie will need more than personality to establish a foothold in an early primary state, or put together a coalition that will take the nomination, let alone the presidency.

To be sure, Mrs. Clinton is still the frontrunner for 2016. But a bit less of a frontrunner than she was six months ago. And perhaps six months from now, she’ll be even less of a frontrunner, as Americans, tired of economic and global complications, decide to send the Democratic government a Dear John note with the message, “It’s complicated.”

Poll Watch: PPP (D) Kansas 2016 Presidential Survey

PPP (D) Kansas 2016 Presidential Poll 

  • Jeb Bush (R) 48% {46%} [45%] (50%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 37% {40%} [39%] (41%)
  • Mike Huckabee (R) 47% {45%} [46%] (49%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 41% {42%} [41%] (42%)
  • Rand Paul (R) 45% {43%} [45%] (48%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 40% {41%} [41%] (41%)
  • Chris Christie (R) 42% {42%} [42%] (46%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 38% {40%} [38%] (39%)
  • Ted Cruz (R) 44% {41%} [43%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 41% {44%} [42%]
Among Men

  • Jeb Bush (R) 53% {49%} [47%] (57%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 33% {34%} [35%] (35%)
  • Mike Huckabee (R) 50% {52%} [48%] (55%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 39% {38%} [39%] (36%)
  • Rand Paul (R) 51% {49%} [49%] (54%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 35% {36%} [40%] (37%)
  • Chris Christie (R) 46% {50%} [47%] (50%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 35% {34%} [35%] (36%)
  • Ted Cruz (R) 49% {47%} [47%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 39% {40%} [42%]

Among Women 

  • Jeb Bush (R) 43% {43%} [42%] (43%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 41% {44%} [43%] (46%)
  • Mike Huckabee (R) 44% {39%} [45%] (44%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 43% {46%} [42%] (46%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 43% {46%} [43%] (45%)
  • Rand Paul (R) 39% {38%} [40%] (42%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 41% {46%} [40%] (42%)
  • Chris Christie (R) 39% {35%} [38%] (42%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 43% {47%} [43%] 
  • Ted Cruz (R) 39% {35%} [40%]

Survey of 1,081 likely voters was conducted October 9-12, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 3.0 percentage points. Party ID: 52% {51%} [50%] (47%) Republican; 28% {26%} [30%] (28%) Democrat; 20% {22%} [20%] (25%) Independent/Other.  Political ideology: 31% {36%} [31%] (32%) Moderate; 26% {24%} [22%] (24%) Somewhat conservative; 21% {19%} [24%] (19%) Very conservative; 14% {14%}[16%] (16%) Somewhat liberal; 8% {6%} [7%] (9%) Very liberal.Results from the poll conducted September 11-14, 2014 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 14-17, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted February 18-20, 2014are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 4:00 am. Filed under 2016, Hillary Clinton, Jeb Bush, Mike Huckabee, Poll Watch, Rand Paul

September 25, 2014

Poll Watch: USA Today/Suffolk University Arkansas 2016 Republican Primary Survey

USA Today/Suffolk University Arkansas 2016 GOP Primary Poll

  • Mike Huckabee 39.27%
  • Rick Perry 8.38%
  • Ted Cruz 7.33%
  • Rand Paul 6.28%
  • Chris Christie 4.71%
  • Jeb Bush 4.71%
  • Marco Rubio 4.71%
  • Paul Ryan 3.14%
  • Bobby Jindal 2.62%
  • Rick Santorum 2.09%
  • Scott Walker 1.57%
  • Jon Huntsman 1.57%
  • John Kasich 1.05%
  • Other 2.09%
  • Undecided 10.47%

Survey of 171 GOP primary voters was conducted September 20-23, 2014.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 10:45 am. Filed under 2016, Mike Huckabee, Poll Watch

September 24, 2014

Poll Watch: PPP (D) Arkansas 2016 Presidential Survey

  • Mike Huckabee (R) 53% [55%] (47%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 41% [39%] (44%)
  • Jeb Bush (R) 46% [46%] (41%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 42% [41%] (46%)
  • Rand Paul (R) 45% [45%] (42%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 43% [42%] (48%)
  • Ted Cruz (R) 44% [46%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 43% [42%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 42% [41%] (47%)
  • Chris Christie (R) 41% [42%] (38%)

Among Independents

  • Mike Huckabee (R) 62% [60%] (56%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 24% [29%] (31%)
  • Jeb Bush (R) 55% [46%] (44%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 23% [31%] (33%)
  • Rand Paul (R) 55% [50%] (51%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 24% [30%] (35%)
  • Ted Cruz (R) 53% [49%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 26% [32%]
  • Chris Christie (R) 45% [42%] (44%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 28% [32%] (33%)

Among Moderates

  • Hillary Clinton (D) 62% [52%] (58%)
  • Mike Huckabee (R) 33% [38%] (30%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 60% [54%] (64%)
  • Jeb Bush (R) 27% [29%] (23%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 63% [57%] (66%)
  • Rand Paul (R) 25% [23%] (24%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 65% [57%]
  • Ted Cruz (R) 23% [26%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 63% [55%] (60%)
  • Chris Christie (R) 25% [24%] (27%)

Among Men

  • Mike Huckabee (R) 58% [59%] (50%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 37% [35%] (38%)
  • Jeb Bush (R) 54% [51%] (44%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 34% [36%] (38%)
  • Rand Paul (R) 53% [49%] (47%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 36% [38%] (43%)
  • Ted Cruz (R) 52% [51%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 38% [39%]
  • Chris Christie (R) 47% [48%] (41%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 38% [37%] (40%)

Among Women

  • Mike Huckabee (R) 48% [51%] (46%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 44% [43%] (50%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 48% [45%] (52%)
  • Jeb Bush (R) 38% [42%] (38%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 48% [45%] (52%)
  • Rand Paul (R) 37% [41%] (38%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 48% [45%]
  • Ted Cruz (R) 37% [40%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 47% [45%] (52%)
  • Chris Christie (R) 36% [37%] (36%)

Do you think Mike Huckabee should run for President in 2016, or not?

  • Think he should run 45% [42%] (39%)
  • Think he should not 43% [45%] (46%)
  • Not sure 13% [13%] (15%)

Survey of 1,453 likely voters was conducted September 18-21, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 2.6 percentage points. Party ID: 39% [35%] (41%) Democrat; 31% [34%] (27%) Republican; 30% [31%] (32%)Independent/Other.  Political ideology: 27% [27%] (23%) Somewhat conservative; 26% [28%] (28%) Moderate; 22% [22%] (23%) Very conservative; 13% [14%] (16%) Somewhat liberal; 11% [10%] (10%) Very liberal. Results from the poll conducted August 1-3, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted April 25-27, 2014 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 11:02 am. Filed under 2016, Hillary Clinton, Jeb Bush, Mike Huckabee, Poll Watch, Rand Paul, Ted Cruz

September 17, 2014

Poll Watch: PPP (D) North Carolina 2016 Presidential Survey

PPP (D) North Carolina 2016 Presidential Poll

  • Mike Huckabee (R) 46% (44%) {43%} [43%] (43%) {42%} [43%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 45% (45%) {46%} [47%] (48%) {49%} [48%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 46% (47%) {46%} [45%] (47%) {49%} [47%] (47%) {48%} [50%] (52%) 
  • Rand Paul (R) 41% (42%) {43%} [44%] (43%) {43%} [44%] (43%) {44%} [41%] (40%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 45% (45%) {45%} [44%] (46%) {46%} [45%] (42%) {42%} [43%]
  • Chris Christie (R) 38% (38%) {41%} [40%] (44%) {42%} [42%](43%) {45%} [46%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 48% (47%) (47%) {49%} [51%]
  • Ted Cruz (R) 40% (41%) (41%) {41%} [39%]

(more…)

by @ 10:15 am. Filed under 2016, Hillary Clinton, Jeb Bush, Mike Huckabee, Poll Watch

September 16, 2014

Poll Watch: PPP (D) Kansas 2016 Presidential Survey

PPP (D) Kansas 2016 Presidential Poll 

  • Jeb Bush (R) 46% [45%] (50%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 40% [39%] (41%)
  • Mike Huckabee (R) 45% [46%] (49%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 42% [41%] (42%)
  • Chris Christie (R) 42% [42%] (46%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 40% [38%] (39%)
  • Rand Paul (R) 43% [45%] (48%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 41% [41%] (41%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 44% [42%]
  • Ted Cruz (R) 41% [43%]
 Among Men
  • Jeb Bush (R) 49% [47%] (57%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 34% [35%] (35%)
  • Mike Huckabee (R) 52% [48%] (55%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 38% [39%] (36%)
  • Chris Christie (R) 50% [47%] (50%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 34% [35%] (36%)
  • Rand Paul (R) 49% [49%] (54%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 36% [40%] (37%)
  • Ted Cruz (R) 47% [47%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 40% [42%]

Among Women 

  • Hillary Clinton (D) 44% [43%] (46%)
  • Jeb Bush (R) 43% [42%] (43%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 46% [42%] (46%)
  • Mike Huckabee (R) 39% [45%] (44%) 
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 46% [40%] (42%)
  • Chris Christie (R) 35% [38%] (42%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 46% [43%] (45%)
  • Rand Paul (R) 38% [40%] (42%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 47% [43%] 
  • Ted Cruz (R) 35% [40%]
 Survey of 1,328 likely voters was conducted September 11-14, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 2.7 percentage points. Party ID: 51% [50%](47%) Republican; 26% [30%] (28%) Democrat; 22% [20%] (25%) Independent/Other.  Political ideology: 36% [31%] (32%) Moderate;24% [22%] (24%) Somewhat conservative; 19% [24%] (19%) Very conservative; 14% [16%] (16%) Somewhat liberal; 6% [7%] (9%) Very liberal. Results from the poll conducted August 14-17, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted February 18-20, 2014are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 1:20 pm. Filed under 2016, Chris Christie, Hillary Clinton, Jeb Bush, Mike Huckabee, Poll Watch, Rand Paul

September 14, 2014

Poll Watch: USA Today/Suffolk University Michigan 2016 Republican Primary Survey

USA Today/Suffolk University Michigan 2016 GOP Primary Poll

  • Jeb Bush 11.17%
  • Mike Huckabee 11.17%
  • Marco Rubio 9.57%
  • Rand Paul 6.91%
  • Chris Christie 6.38%
  • Rick Perry 6.38%
  • Scott Walker 6.38%
  • Paul Ryan 5.85%
  • Ted Cruz 5.32%
  • Rick Santorum 5.32%
  • Bobby Jindal 2.66%
  • Jon Huntsman 2.13%
  • John Kasich 0.53%
  • Undecided 17.02%

Survey of 188 likely GOP primary voters was conducted September 6-10, 2014.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 10:27 am. Filed under 2016, Jeb Bush, Mike Huckabee, Poll Watch

September 12, 2014

Poll Watch: CNN/ORC Iowa 2016 Republican Caucus Survey

CNN/ORC Iowa 2016 GOP Caucus Poll

  • Mike Huckabee 21%
  • Paul Ryan 12%
  • Rand Paul 7%
  • Chris Christie 6%
  • Jeb Bush 6%
  • Marco Rubio 5%
  • Rick Perry 5%
  • Scott Walker 5%
  • Bobby Jindal 4%
  • Ted Cruz 4%
  • Rick Santorum 3%

Survey of registered Republicans was conducted September 8-10, 2014.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 4:17 pm. Filed under 2016, Iowa Caucuses, Mike Huckabee, Poll Watch

August 27, 2014

Poll Watch: USA Today/Suffolk University Iowa 2016 Republican Caucus Survey

USA Today/Suffolk University Iowa 2016 GOP Caucus Poll 

  • Mike Huckabee 13.11% (11.02%)
  • Chris Christie 10.68% (7.09%)
  • Rick Perry 8.74% (3.15%)
  • Jeb Bush 7.28 (10.24%)
  • Rand Paul 6.80% (10.24%)
  • Paul Ryan 6.31% (6.30%)
  • Rick Santorum 5.83% (5.51%)
  • Marco Rubio 5.34% (5.51%)
  • Ted Cruz 4.85% (9.45%)
  • Scott Walker 4.37% (5.51%)
  • Bobby Jindal 2.91% (3.15%)
  • Jon Huntsman 0.97%
  • John Kasich 0.97%
  • Other 4.37%
  • Undecided 16.99% (3.15%)

Survey of 206 GOP caucus-goers was conducted August 23-36, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 6.83 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted April 3-8, 2014 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 3:46 pm. Filed under 2016, Iowa Caucuses, Mike Huckabee, Poll Watch

August 23, 2014

Poll Watch: PPP (D) Kansas 2016 Presidential Survey

PPP (D) Kansas 2016 Presidential Poll 

  • Jeb Bush (R) 45% (50%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 39% (41%)
  • Mike Huckabee (R) 46% (49%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 41% (42%)
  • Chris Christie (R) 42% (46%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 38% (39%)
  • Rand Paul (R) 45% (48%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 41% (41%)
  • Ted Cruz (R) 43%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 42%

Among Men

  • Jeb Bush (R) 47% (57%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 35% (35%)
  • Mike Huckabee (R) 48% (55%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 39% (36%)
  • Chris Christie (R) 47% (50%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 35% (36%)
  • Rand Paul (R) 49% (54%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 40% (37%)
  • Ted Cruz (R) 47%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 42%

Among Women 

  • Hillary Clinton (D) 43% (46%)
  • Jeb Bush (R) 42% (43%)
  • Mike Huckabee (R) 45% (44%)  
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 42% (46%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 40% (42%)
  • Chris Christie (R) 38% (42%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 43% (45%)
  • Rand Paul (R) 40% (42%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 43% 
  • Ted Cruz (R) 40%

Survey of 903 likely voters was conducted August 14-17, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 3.3 percentage points. Party ID: 50% (47%) Republican; 30% (28%) Democrat; 20% (25%) Independent/Other.  Political ideology: 31% (32%) Moderate; 24% (19%) Very conservative; 22% (24%) Somewhat conservative; 16% (16%) Somewhat liberal; 7% (9%) Very liberal. Results from the poll conducted February 18-20, 2014 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 9:35 am. Filed under 2016, Chris Christie, Jeb Bush, Mike Huckabee, Poll Watch, Rand Paul, Ted Cruz

August 7, 2014

Poll Watch: PPP (D) Arkansas 2016 Presidential Survey

  • Mike Huckabee (R) 55% (47%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 39% (44%)
  • Jeb Bush (R) 46% (41%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 41% (46%)
  • Ted Cruz (R) 46%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 42%
  • Rand Paul (R) 45% (42%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 42% (48%)
  • Chris Christie (R) 42% (38%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 41% (47%)

Among Independents

  • Mike Huckabee (R) 60% (56%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 29% (31%)
  • Jeb Bush (R) 46% (44%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 31% (33%)
  • Ted Cruz (R) 49%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 32%
  • Rand Paul (R) 50% (51%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 30% (35%)
  • Chris Christie (R) 42% (44%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 32% (33%)

Among Moderates

  • Hillary Clinton (D) 52% (58%)
  • Mike Huckabee (R) 38% (30%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 54% (64%)
  • Jeb Bush (R) 29% (23%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 57%
  • Ted Cruz (R) 26%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 57% (66%)
  • Rand Paul (R) 23% (24%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 55% (60%)
  • Chris Christie (R) 24% (27%)

Among Men

  • Mike Huckabee (R) 59% (50%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 35% (38%)
  • Jeb Bush (R) 51% (44%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 36% (38%)
  • Ted Cruz (R) 51%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 39%
  • Rand Paul (R) 49% (47%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 38% (43%)
  • Chris Christie (R) 48% (41%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 37% (40%)

Among Women

  • Mike Huckabee (R) 51% (46%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 43% (50%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 45% (52%)
  • Jeb Bush (R) 42% (38%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 45%
  • Ted Cruz (R) 40%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 45% (52%)
  • Rand Paul (R) 41% (38%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 45% (52%)
  • Chris Christie (R) 37% (36%)

Do you think Mike Huckabee should run for President in 2016, or not?

  • Think he should run 42% (39%)
  • Think he should not 45% (46%)
  • Not sure 13% (15%)

Survey of 1,066 Arkansas voters was conducted August 1-3, 2014.  The margin of error is +/- 3.0 percentage points. Party ID: 35% (41%)Democrat; 34% (27%) Republican; 31% (32%) Independent/Other.  Political ideology: 28% (28%) Moderate; 27% (23%) Somewhat conservative; 22% (23%) Very conservative; 14% (16%) Somewhat liberal; 10% (10%) Very liberal. Results from the poll conducted April 25-27, 2014 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 11:15 am. Filed under 2016, Chris Christie, Hillary Clinton, Jeb Bush, Mike Huckabee, Poll Watch, Rand Paul, Ted Cruz

Poll Watch: PPP (D) Arkansas 2016 Republican Primary Survey

PPP (D) Arkansas 2016 GOP Primary Poll

  • Mike Huckabee 33% (38%)
  • Ted Cruz 12% (14%
  • Jeb Bush 10% (10%)
  • Chris Christie 8% (4%)
  • Rand Paul 7% (13%)
  • Scott Walker 6%
  • Bobby Jindal 5% (3%)
  • Marco Rubio 4% (3%)
  • Paul Ryan 3% (3%)
  • Someone else/Not sure 11% (10%)

Survey of 479 Republican primary voters was conducted August 1-3, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 4.5 percentage points. Political ideology: 42% (45%) Very conservative; 40% (29%) Somewhat conservative; 13% (16%) Moderate; 4% (6%) Somewhat liberal1% (4%) Very liberal. Results from the poll conducted April 25-27, 2014 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 10:30 am. Filed under 2016, Mike Huckabee, Poll Watch

July 24, 2014

Poll Watch: PPP (D) Mississippi 2016 Presidential Survey

PPP (D) Mississippi 2016 Presidential Poll

  • Mike Huckabee (R) 49%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 42%
  • Jeb Bush (R) 47% (50%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 42% (42%)
  • Chris Christie (R) 45% (49%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 42% (40%)
  • Rand Paul (R) 45% (46%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 43% (44%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 44% (45%)
  • Ted Cruz (R) 44% (47%)

Among Men

  • Mike Huckabee (R) 54%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 33%
  • Jeb Bush (R) 53% (58%) 
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 33% (34%)
  • Chris Christie (R) 51% (58%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 33% (32%)
  • Rand Paul (R) 55% (55%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 35% (37%)
  • Ted Cruz (R) 52% (55%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 38% (38%)

Among Women

  • Hillary Clinton (D) 48%
  • Mike Huckabee (R) 44%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 49% (49%)
  • Jeb Bush (R) 42% (43%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 50% (47%)
  • Chris Christie (R) 39% (42%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 50% (50%)
  • Rand Paul (R) 37% (38%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 50% (50%)
  • Ted Cruz (R) 38% (40%)

Among Whites

  • Mike Huckabee (R) 71%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 19%
  • Jeb Bush (R) 67% (75%) 
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 20% (19%)
  • Chris Christie (R) 63% (72%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 21% (17%)
  • Rand Paul (R) 66% (68%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 22% (19%)
  • Ted Cruz (R) 64% (69%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 24% (20%)

Among Blacks

  • Hillary Clinton (D) 81%
  • Mike Huckabee (R) 10%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 80% (87%)
  • Jeb Bush (R) 12% (4%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 79% (84%)
  • Chris Christie (R) 13% (9%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 81% (92%)
  • Rand Paul (R) 10% (4%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 82% (91%)
  • Ted Cruz (R) 9% (6%)

Survey of 691 Mississippi voters was conducted July 10-13, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 3.7 percentage points. Party ID: 43% (43%) Republican; 39% (37%) Democrat; 19% (20%) Independent/Other. Political ideology: 26% (23%) Moderate; 26% (27%) Very conservative; 25% (24%) Somewhat conservative; 14% (15%)Somewhat liberal; 10% (11%) Very liberal. Race: 60% (62%) White; 34% (32%) Black; 6% (6%) Other. Results from the poll conducted November 15-17, 2013 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 10:20 am. Filed under 2016, Chris Christie, Hillary Clinton, Jeb Bush, Mike Huckabee, Poll Watch, Ted Cruz

July 23, 2014

Poll Watch: PPP (D) Mississippi 2016 Republican Primary Survey

PPP (D) Mississippi 2016 GOP Primary Poll

  • Mike Huckabee 25%
  • Jeb Bush 16% (16%)
  • Ted Cruz 11% (19%)
  • Chris Christie 8% (17%)
  • Paul Ryan 6% (4%)
  • Rand Paul 6% (12%)
  • Marco Rubio 5% (8%)
  • Rick Santorum 3% (5%)
  • Scott Walker 2% (1%)
  • Someone else/Not sure 16% (10%)

Among Men

  • Mike Huckabee 22%
  • Jeb Bush 15% (15%)
  • Ted Cruz 13% (22%)
  • Chris Christie 10% (12%)
  • Paul Ryan 8% (3%)
  • Marco Rubio 8% (7%)
  • Rand Paul 5% (14%)
  • Rick Santorum 3% (4%)
  • Scott Walker 3% (2%)
  • Someone else/Not sure 14% (10%)

Among Women

  • Mike Huckabee 28%
  • Jeb Bush 18% (18%)
  • Ted Cruz 9% (17%)
  • Chris Christie 7% (23%)
  • Rand Paul 7% (10%)
  • Paul Ryan 4% (5%)
  • Marco Rubio 3% (9%)
  • Rick Santorum 2% (6%)
  • Scott Walker 1% (0%)
  • Someone else/Not sure 19% (10%)

Survey of 434 usual Republican primary voters was conducted July 10-13, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 4.7 percentage points. Political ideology: 44% (46%) Very conservative; 35% (33%) Somewhat conservative; 17% (15%) Moderate; 3% (4%) Somewhat liberal; 0% (3%) Very liberal. Results from the poll conducted November 15-17, 2013 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 4:58 pm. Filed under 2016, Mike Huckabee, Poll Watch

July 9, 2014

Poll Watch: PPP (D) Louisiana 2016 Presidential Survey

PPP (D) Louisiana 2016 Presidential Poll 

  • Jeb Bush (R) 46% {50%} [44%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 45% {43%} [44%]
  • Mike Huckabee (R) 46% {49%}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 45% {44%}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 46% {43%} [44%]  
  • Rand Paul (R) 46% {47%} [45%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 46%
  • Ted Cruz (R) 45%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 46% {43%} [42%]
  • Chris Christie (R) 42% {44%} [41%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 48% {45%} [47%] (48%)
  • Bobby Jindal (R) 44% {47%} [40%] (45%)

Among Men

  • Jeb Bush (R) 47% {52%} [49%] 
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 42% {39%} [37%]
  • Mike Huckabee (R) 53% {54%} 
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 39% {40%}
  • Rand Paul (R) 52% {51%} [51%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 41% {39%} [37%]
  • Ted Cruz (R) 53%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 41%
  • Chris Christie (R) 48% {51%} [44%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 40% {36%} [35%]
  • Bobby Jindal (R) 49% {50%} [44%] (54%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 42% {43%} [42%] (40%)

Among Women 

  • Hillary Clinton (D) 48% {45%} [52%]
  • Jeb Bush (R) 45% {48%} [39%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 50% {46%}
  • Mike Huckabee (R) 40% {45%}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 50% {46%} [51%]
  • Rand Paul (R) 40% {44%} [39%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 50% 
  • Ted Cruz (R) 39%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 51% {48%} [49%]
  • Chris Christie (R) 37% {39%} [37%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 53% {47%} [53%] (56%)
  • Bobby Jindal (R) 39% {44%} [36%] (36%)

Do you think Bobby Jindal should run for President in 2016, or not?

  • He should run 17% {25%} [17%] (24%)
  • He should not 72% {63%} [72%] (66%)
Survey of 664 registered voters was conducted June 26-29, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 3.8 percentage points. Party ID: 44% {42%} [45%] (43%) Democrat; 36% {38%} [36%] (39%) Republican; 20% {20%} [18%] (17%) Independent/Other.  Political ideology: 29% {32%} [27%] (28%) Moderate; 24% {25%} [31%] (22%) Somewhat conservative; 22% {21%} [22%] (26%) Very conservative; 17% {13%} [12%] (12%) Somewhat liberal; 7% {9%} [9%] (12%) Very liberal. Results from the poll conducted February 6-9, 2014 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 16-19, 2013 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 8-12, 2013 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 12:00 pm. Filed under 2016, Hillary Clinton, Jeb Bush, Mike Huckabee, Poll Watch

May 23, 2014

Poll Watch: PPP (D) Iowa 2016 Republican Caucus Survey

PPP (D) Iowa 2016 GOP Caucus Poll

  • Mike Huckabee 20% {17%} (16%{15%} [17%] (16%
  • Ted Cruz 15% {10%} [10%]
  • Jeb Bush 12% {13%} [14%] (14%) {11%} [8%] (10%)
  • Rand Paul 10% {14%} [18%] (15%) {5%} [11%] (9%)
  • Chris Christie 9% {10%} [16%] (12%) {12%} [16%] (15%)
  • Paul Ryan 8% {9%} [15%] (10%) {12%} [6%] (5%)
  • Scott Walker 6% {7%}
  • Marco Rubio 4% {3%} [11%] (16%) {12%} [10%] (7%)
  • Rick Santorum 3% [6%] {10%} [17%] (16%)
  • Someone else/Not sure 13% {11%} [7%] (7%) {8%} [8%] (10%)

Among Men

  • Ted Cruz 20% {10%} [13%]
  • Mike Huckabee 18% {19%} (14%) {13%} [13%] (11%)
  • Jeb Bush 11% {9%} [13%] (16%) {11%} [8%] (9%)
  • Rand Paul 11% {14%} [21%] (14%) {6%} [16%] (10%)
  • Chris Christie 10% {7%} [17%] (12%) {14%} [15%] (17%)
  • Scott Walker 6% {11%}
  • Paul Ryan 6% {8%} [11%] (10%) {7%} [8%] (3%)
  • Marco Rubio 5% {3%} [10%] (17%) {15%} [8%] (9%)
  • Rick Santorum 3% [5%] {10%} [17%] (19%)
  • Someone else/Not sure 10% {9%} [4%] (6%) {8%} [5%] (11%)

Among Women 

  • Mike Huckabee 23% {15%} (18%) {17%} [21%] (22%)
  • Jeb Bush 14% {17%} [15%] (12%) {11%} [8%] (12%)
  • Paul Ryan 11% {9%} [19%] (10%) {17%} [5%] (8%)
  • Ted Cruz 9% {9%} [7%]
  • Rand Paul 8% {14%} [14%] (16%) {5%} [5%] (8%)
  • Chris Christie 7% {15%} [16%] (11%) {10%} [16%] (13%)
  • Scott Walker 5% {1%}
  • Rick Santorum 4% [7%] {11%} [17%] (14%)
  • Marco Rubio 3% {3%} [12%] (16%) {10%} [11%] (4%)
  • Someone else/Not sure 17% {13%} [10%] (8%) {9%} [10%] (10%)

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net} 

  • Mike Huckabee 70% {63%} (64%) {68%} [68%] (69%) / 14% {19%} (22%) {16%} [20%] (12%) {+56%}
  • Sarah Palin 68% {61%} {60%} [60%] (70%) / 18% {21%} {26%} [26%] (17%) {+50%}
  • Rick Santorum 62% {44%} [57%] {64%} [65%] (68%) / 13% {21%} [15%] {18%} [22%] (17%) {+49%}
  • Rand Paul 60% {59%} [60%] (55%) {48%} [49%] (54%) / 12% {15%} [15%] (19%) {28%} [29%] (15%) {+48%}
  • Ted Cruz 58% {40%} [27%] / 11% {14%} [12%] {+47%}
  • Paul Ryan 60% {63%} [68%] (63%) {83%} [49%] (44%) / 15% {13%} [12%] (16%) {13%} [14%] (8%) {+45%}
  • Marco Rubio 51% {42%} [54%] (54%) {59%} [57%] (46%) / 10% {14%} [14%] (13%) {11%} [13%] (7%) {+41%}
  • Scott Walker 47% {39%} / 8% {12%} {+39%}
  • Rick Perry 53% {45%} (43%) / 16% {17%} (28%) {+37%}
  • Bobby Jindal 41% {36%} [42%] (43%) / 9% {10%} [14%] (11%) {+32%}
  • Ben Carson 37% / 6% {+31%}
  • Jeb Bush 48% {50%} [58%] (55%) {60%} [53%] (62%) / 25% {17%} [17%] (17%) {11%} [19%] (9%) {+23%}
  • John Kasich 18% {11%} / 10% {13%} {+8%}
  • Chris Christie 36% {38%} [45%] (36%) {55%} [57%] (50%) / 38% {35%} [27%] (33%) {21%} [17%] (16%) {-2%}
  • Scott Brown 12% / 17% {-5%}
  • Peter King 11% / 19% {-8%}
  • Donald Trump 30% {23%} / 40% {44%} {-10%}
  • Joe Scarborough 10% / 22% {-12%}

Survey of 303 Republican voters was conducted May 15-19, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 5.6 percentage points.  Political ideology: 42%{33%} [45%] (43%) {36%} [37%] (46%) Very conservative; 37% {39%} [33%] (31%) {39%} [40%] (35%) Somewhat conservative; 16%{21%} [16%] (21%) {19%} [16%] (14%) Moderate; 3% {5%} [5%] (5%) {3%} [6%] (3%) Somewhat liberal; 1% {2%} [1%] (1%) {3%} [1%] (2%) Very liberal.  Results from the poll conducted February 20-23, 2013 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 5-7, 2013 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 1-3, 2013 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted November 3-4, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 12-15, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 3-6, 2012 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 9:28 am. Filed under 2016, Iowa Caucuses, Mike Huckabee, Poll Watch

May 15, 2014

Poll Watch: PPP (D) Alaska 2016 Presidential Survey

  • Jeb Bush (R) 47% {47%} [49%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 41% {39%} [42%]
  • Rand Paul (R) 46% {47%} [49%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 40% {41%} [43%]
  • Chris Christie (R) 44% {43%} [46%] (43%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 41% {39%} [38%] (42%)
  • Mike Huckabee (R) 43% {45%}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 42% {41%}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 44% {44%} [49%] (53%)
  • Sarah Palin (R) 41% {43%} [40%] (37%)

Among Men

  • Jeb Bush (R) 58% {54%} [59%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 32% {33%} [31%]
  • Rand Paul (R) 55% {55%} [58%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 34% {35%} [34%]
  • Chris Christie (R) 51% {49%} [51%] (50%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 33% {34%} [31%] (35%)
  • Mike Huckabee (R) 51% {51%}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 36% {35%}
  • Sarah Palin (R) 50% {49%} [48%] (43%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 34% {37%} [39%] (46%)

Among Women 

  • Hillary Clinton (D) 48% {45%} [52%]
  • Jeb Bush (R) 37% {40%} [40%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 46% {46%} [50%]
  • Rand Paul (R) 39% {41%} [42%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 48% {44%} [45%] (47%)
  • Chris Christie (R) 37% {38%} [43%] (38%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 47% {47%}
  • Mike Huckabee (R) 37% {40%}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 54% {50%} [58%] (60%)
  • Sarah Palin (R) 32% {38%} [34%] (31%)

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Sarah Palin?

  • Favorable 36% {39%} [39%] (34%)
  • Unfavorable 56% {55%} [58%] (59%)
Do you think Sarah Palin should run for President in 2016, or not?

  • She should run 19% {23%} [18%] (16%)
  • She should not 74% {69%} [77%] (78%)

Survey of 582 registered voters was conducted May 8-11, 2014.  The margin of error is +/- 4.1 percentage points.  Party ID: 29% {33%} [32%] (32%) Republican; 18% {20%} [20%] (21%) Democrat; 53% {46%} [48%] (46%) Independent/Other.  Ideology: 31% {32%} [30%] (33%) Moderate; 22% {21%} [20%] (19%) Very conservative; 21% {23%} [25%] (25%) Somewhat conservative; 16% {16%} [17%] (15%) Somewhat liberal; 9% {7%} [8%] (9%) Very liberal. Results from the poll conducted January 30 – February 1, 2014 are in curly brackets.Results from the poll conducted July 25-28, 2013 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 4-5, 2013 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 2:00 pm. Filed under 2016, Chris Christie, Hillary Clinton, Jeb Bush, Mike Huckabee, Poll Watch, Rand Paul, Sarah Palin

Poll Watch: PPP (D) North Carolina 2016 Republican Primary Survey

PPP (D) North Carolina 2016 GOP Primary Poll

  • Mike Huckabee 17% [19%] (22%) {19%} [20%] (15%)
  • Jeb Bush 17% [15%] (18%) {12%} [15%] (14%) {15%} [16%] (9%)
  • Chris Christie 12% [9%] (12%) {15%} [11%] (17%) {19%} [20%](10%)
  • Ted Cruz 12% [17%] (12%) {14%} [8%] (11%) {12%} [12%]
  • Rand Paul 12% [15%] (9%) {12%} [14%] (14%) {13%} [12%] (6%)
  • Paul Ryan 8% [6%] (9%) {4%} [8%] (11%) {7%} [7%] (12%)
  • Scott Walker 5% (7%) {6%} [4%] (3%) {5%} [1%]
  • Marco Rubio 5% [5%] (5%) {5%} [7%] (9%) {10%} [10%] (21%)
  • Bobby Jindal 2% [4%] (2%) {1%} [3%] (5%) {3%} [6%]
  • Someone else/Not sure 11% [9%] (6%) {12%} [9%] (13%) {11%} [13%] (8%)

Among Men

  • Mike Huckabee 18% [13%] (19%) {15%} [15%] (14%)
  • Chris Christie 14% [9%] (12%) {16%} [14%] (18%) {18%} [19%] (10%)
  • Rand Paul 14% [18%] (8%) {13%} [19%] (14%) {15%} [16%] (9%)
  • Ted Cruz 12% [19%] (16%) {16%} [7%] (14%) {15%} [16%]
  • Jeb Bush 12% [15%] {13%} [18%] (14%) {14%} [14%] (11%)
  • Paul Ryan 7% [7%] (8%) {3%} [5%] (10%) {5%} [6%] (12%)
  • Scott Walker 7% (10%) {7%} [6%] (4%) {6%} [1%]
  • Marco Rubio 4% [6%] (6%) {3%} [7%] (7%) {10%} [9%] (22%)
  • Bobby Jindal 1% [4%] (1%) {2%} [3%] (6%) {3%} [5%]
  • Someone else/Not sure 11% [7%] (4%) {12%} [6%] (9%) {7%} [10%] (7%)

Among Women

  • Jeb Bush 23% [15%] (21%) {11%} [13%] (13%) {16%} [18%] (8%)
  • Mike Huckabee 16% [26%] (24%) {24%} [25%] (16%)
  • Ted Cruz 11% [13%] (7%) {11%} [9%] (9%) {10%} [9%]
  • Chris Christie 10% [9%] (12%) {13%} [7%] (17%) {19%} [20%](10%)
  • Paul Ryan 9% [4%] (9%) {5%} [12%] (11%) {8%} [9%] (12%)
  • Rand Paul 9% [11%] (11%) {10%} [9%] (14%) {11%} [8%] (4%)
  • Marco Rubio 5% [4%] (5%) {7%} [7%] (11%) {10%} [10%] (19%)
  • Scott Walker 4% (3%) {5%} [2%] (1%) {4%} [0%]
  • Bobby Jindal 3% [4%] (2%) {1%} [3%] (4%) {3%} [7%]
  • Someone else/Not sure 10% [10%] (7%) {14%} [13%] (17%) {15%} [17%] (10%)

Survey of 394 Republican primary voters was conducted May 9-11, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 4.9 percentage points. Political ideology: 40% [45%] (39%) {37%} [35%] (38%) {37%} [36%] (44%) Very conservative; 37% [35%] (32%) {35%} [33%] (40%) {39%} [36%] (35%) Somewhat conservative; 20% [13%] (21%) {20%} [22%] (16%) {16%} [21%] (13%) Moderate; 2% [4%] (6%) {4%} [7%] (4%) {7%} [4%] (6%) Somewhat liberal; 1% [4%] (3%) {3%} [3%] (2%) {1%} [3%] (1%) Very liberal.  Results from the poll conducted April 26-28, 2014 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 3-6, 2014 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted March 6-9, 2014 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 6-9, 2014 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 9-12, 2014 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted December 5-8, 2013 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 8-11, 2013 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted December 6-9, 2012 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 10:00 am. Filed under 2016, Jeb Bush, Mike Huckabee, Poll Watch

May 2, 2014

Poll Watch: PPP (D) Arkansas 2016 Republican Primary Survey

  • Mike Huckabee 38%
  • Ted Cruz 14% 
  • Rand Paul 13%
  • Jeb Bush 10%
  • Chris Christie 4%
  • Paul Ryan 3%
  • Bobby Jindal 3%
  • Marco Rubio 3%
  • Cliven Bundy 2%
  • Someone else/Not sure 10%

Survey of 342 Republican primary voters was conducted April 25-27, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 5.3 percentage points. Political ideology: 45% Very conservative; 29% Somewhat conservative; 16% Moderate; 6% Somewhat liberal4% Very liberal.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 6:00 pm. Filed under 2016, Mike Huckabee, Poll Watch

Poll Watch: Magellan Strategies (R) Ohio 2016 Republican Primary Survey

Magellan Strategies (R) Ohio 2016 GOP Primary Poll

  • Mike Huckabee 17% 
  • Rand Paul 15%
  • Chris Christie 13%
  • Jeb Bush 13%  
  • Ted Cruz 12%
  • John Kasich 10%
  • Marco Rubio 5%
  • Scott Walker 4%
  • Undecided 11%

Survey of 300 likely Republican voters was conducted April 14-15, 2014 for The Liberty Foundation of America.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 8:00 am. Filed under 2016, Mike Huckabee, Poll Watch

May 1, 2014

Poll Watch: Magellan Strategies (R) Arkansas 2016 Republican Primary Survey

Magellan Strategies (R) Arkansas 2016 GOP Primary Poll

  • Mike Huckabee 57% 
  • Rand Paul 9%
  • Jeb Bush 8%  
  • Chris Christie 6%
  • Ted Cruz 6%
  • Marco Rubio 4%
  • John Kasich 2%
  • Scott Walker 1%
  • Undecided 7%

Survey of 240 likely Republican voters was conducted April 14-15, 2014 for The Liberty Foundation of America.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 8:00 pm. Filed under 2016, Mike Huckabee, Poll Watch

Poll Watch: Magellan Strategies (R) Michigan 2016 Republican Primary Survey

Magellan Strategies (R) Michigan 2016 GOP Primary Poll

  • Mike Huckabee 24% 
  • Jeb Bush 16%
  • Rand Paul 15%  
  • Chris Christie 14%
  • Ted Cruz 7%
  • Marco Rubio 5%
  • Scott Walker 4%
  • John Kasich 3%
  • Undecided 12%

Survey of 271 likely Republican voters was conducted April 14-15, 2014 for The Liberty Foundation of America.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 7:00 pm. Filed under 2016, Mike Huckabee, Poll Watch

April 30, 2014

Poll Watch: PPP (D) North Carolina 2016 Republican Primary Survey

PPP (D) North Carolina 2016 GOP Primary Poll

  • Mike Huckabee 19% (22%) {19%} [20%] (15%)
  • Ted Cruz 17% (12%) {14%} [8%] (11%) {12%} [12%]
  • Rand Paul 15% (9%) {12%} [14%] (14%) {13%} [12%] (6%)
  • Jeb Bush 15% (18%) {12%} [15%] (14%) {15%} [16%] (9%)
  • Chris Christie 9% (12%) {15%} [11%] (17%) {19%} [20%] (10%)
  • Paul Ryan 6% (9%) {4%} [8%] (11%) {7%} [7%] (12%)
  • Marco Rubio 5% (5%) {5%} [7%] (9%) {10%} [10%] (21%)
  • Bobby Jindal 4% (2%) {1%} [3%] (5%) {3%} [6%]
  • Cliven Bundy 3%
  • Someone else/Not sure 9% (6%) {12%} [9%] (13%) {11%} [13%] (8%)

Among Men

  • Ted Cruz 19% (16%) {16%} [7%] (14%) {15%} [16%]
  • Rand Paul 18% (8%) {13%} [19%] (14%) {15%} [16%] (9%)
  • Jeb Bush 15% {13%} [18%] (14%) {14%} [14%] (11%)
  • Mike Huckabee 13% (19%) {15%} [15%] (14%)
  • Chris Christie 9% (12%) {16%} [14%] (18%) {18%} [19%](10%)
  • Paul Ryan 7% (8%) {3%} [5%] (10%) {5%} [6%] (12%)
  • Marco Rubio 6% (6%) {3%} [7%] (7%) {10%} [9%] (22%)
  • Bobby Jindal 4% (1%) {2%} [3%] (6%) {3%} [5%]
  • Cliven Bundy 3%
  • Someone else/Not sure 7% (4%) {12%} [6%] (9%) {7%} [10%] (7%)

Among Women

  • Mike Huckabee 26% (24%) {24%} [25%] (16%)
  • Jeb Bush 15% (21%) {11%} [13%] (13%) {16%} [18%] (8%)
  • Ted Cruz 13% (7%) {11%} [9%] (9%) {10%} [9%]
  • Rand Paul 11% (11%) {10%} [9%] (14%) {11%} [8%] (4%)
  • Chris Christie 9% (12%) {13%} [7%] (17%) {19%} [20%] (10%)
  • Paul Ryan 4% (9%) {5%} [12%] (11%) {8%} [9%] (12%)
  • Marco Rubio 4% (5%) {7%} [7%] (11%) {10%} [10%] (19%)
  • Bobby Jindal 4% (2%) {1%} [3%] (4%) {3%} [7%]
  • Cliven Bundy 2%
  • Someone else/Not sure 10% (7%) {14%} [13%] (17%) {15%} [17%] (10%)

Survey of 694 likely Republican primary voters was conducted April 26-28, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 3.7 percentage points. Political ideology: 45% (39%) {37%} [35%] (38%) {37%} [36%] (44%) Very conservative; 35% (32%) {35%} [33%] (40%) {39%} [36%] (35%) Somewhat conservative; 13% (21%) {20%} [22%] (16%) {16%} [21%] (13%) Moderate; 4% (6%) {4%} [7%] (4%) {7%} [4%] (6%) Somewhat liberal; 4% (3%) {3%} [3%] (2%) {1%} [3%] (1%) Very liberal.  Results from the poll conducted April 3-6, 2014 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted March 6-9, 2014 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 6-9, 2014 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 9-12, 2014 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted December 5-8, 2013 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 8-11, 2013 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted December 6-9, 2012 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 4:00 am. Filed under 2016, Mike Huckabee, Poll Watch

April 29, 2014

Poll Watch: Magellan Strategies (R) Iowa 2016 Republican Caucus Survey

Magellan Strategies (R) Iowa 2016 GOP Caucus Poll 

  • Mike Huckabee 17%
  • Jeb Bush 17%
  • Chris Christie 14%
  • Rand Paul 11%
  • Ted Cruz 10%
  • Scott Walker 8%
  • John Kasich 5%
  • Marco Rubio 2%
  • Undecided 16%

Survey of 331 likely GOP voters was conducted April 14-15, 2014 for The Liberty Foundation of America.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 3:01 pm. Filed under 2016, Iowa Caucuses, Jeb Bush, Mike Huckabee, Poll Watch

April 28, 2014

Poll Watch: The Daily Caller/Vox Populi Polling (R) Iowa 2016 Republican Caucus Survey

The Daily Caller/Vox Populi Polling (R) Iowa 2016 GOP Caucus Poll 

  • Mike Huckabee 20%
  • Paul Ryan 19%
  • Jeb Bush 18%
  • Ted Cruz 9%
  • Marco Rubio 9%
  • Rand Paul 8%
  • Chris Christie 7%
  • Scott Walker 6%
  • Joe Scarborough 4%

Survey of 168 registered Republican voters was conducted April 22-24, 2014.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 11:00 am. Filed under 2016, Iowa Caucuses, Mike Huckabee, Poll Watch

April 16, 2014

Poll Watch: McClatchy-Marist 2016 Republican Nomination Survey

McClatchy-Marist 2016 GOP Nomination Poll 

  • Mike Huckabee 13% (13%)
  • Jeb Bush 13% (8%) {8%} [10%] (10%)
  • Chris Christie 12% (13%) {16%} [18%] (15%)
  • Rand Paul 12% (9%) {9%} [12%] (9%)
  • Paul Ryan 12% (9%) {12%} [11%] (13%)
  • Marco Rubio 7% (12%) {7%} [7%] (12%)
  • Scott Walker 5% (7%) {4%} [4%] (2%)
  • Ted Cruz 4% (5%) {5%} [10%] (7%)
  • Bobby Jindal 4% {3%} (1%)
  • Rick Santorum 3% (2%) {5%} [4%] (2%)
  • Rick Perry 3% (2%) {6%} [3%] (4%)
  • John Kasich 0% (1%)
  • Undecided 14% (12%) {25%} [13%] (25%)

Survey of 416 registered Republicans and GOP-leaning Independents was conducted April 7-10, 2014The margin of error is +/- 4.8 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted February 4-9, 2014 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted January 12-14, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted December 3-5, 2013 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 15-18, 2013 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 8:00 am. Filed under 2016, Mike Huckabee, Poll Watch

April 15, 2014

Poll Watch: Loras College Iowa 2016 Republican Caucus Survey

Loras College Iowa 2016 GOP Caucus Poll 

  • Mike Huckabee 14.7%
  • Jeb Bush 10.7%
  • Rand Paul 8.5%
  • Paul Ryan 8.3%
  • Chris Christie 8.0%
  • Ted Cruz 6.2%
  • Marco Rubio 4.7%
  • Rick Santorum 4.7%
  • Scott Walker 4.7%
  • Rick Perry 3.0%
  • John Kasich 0.7%
  • Other 0.7%
  • Undecided 23.8%

Survey of 600 likely Iowa GOP primary voters was conducted April 7-8, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 6:22 pm. Filed under 2016, Iowa Caucuses, Mike Huckabee, Poll Watch

April 10, 2014

Poll Watch: PPP (D) North Carolina 2016 Republican Primary Survey

PPP (D) North Carolina 2016 GOP Primary Poll

  • Mike Huckabee 22% {19%} [20%] (15%)
  • Jeb Bush 18% {12%} [15%] (14%) {15%} [16%] (9%)
  • Chris Christie 12% {15%} [11%] (17%) {19%} [20%] (10%)
  • Ted Cruz 12% {14%} [8%] (11%) {12%} [12%]
  • Paul Ryan 9% {4%} [8%] (11%) {7%} [7%] (12%)
  • Rand Paul 9% {12%} [14%] (14%) {13%} [12%] (6%)
  • Scott Walker 7% {6%} [4%] (3%) {5%} [1%]
  • Marco Rubio 5% {5%} [7%] (9%) {10%} [10%] (21%)
  • Bobby Jindal 2% {1%} [3%] (5%) {3%} [6%]
  • Someone else/Not sure 6% {12%} [9%] (13%) {11%} [13%] (8%)

Among Men

  • Mike Huckabee 19% {15%} [15%] (14%)
  • Ted Cruz 16% {16%} [7%] (14%) {15%} [16%]
  • Jeb Bush 15% {13%} [18%] (14%) {14%} [14%] (11%)
  • Chris Christie 12% {16%} [14%] (18%) {18%} [19%] (10%)
  • Scott Walker 10% {7%} [6%] (4%) {6%} [1%]
  • Paul Ryan 8% {3%} [5%] (10%) {5%} [6%] (12%)
  • Rand Paul 8% {13%} [19%] (14%) {15%} [16%] (9%)
  • Marco Rubio 6% {3%} [7%] (7%) {10%} [9%] (22%)
  • Bobby Jindal 1% {2%} [3%] (6%) {3%} [5%]
  • Someone else/Not sure 4% {12%} [6%] (9%) {7%} [10%] (7%)

Among Women

  • Mike Huckabee 24% {24%} [25%] (16%)
  • Jeb Bush 21% {11%} [13%] (13%) {16%} [18%] (8%)
  • Chris Christie 12% {13%} [7%] (17%) {19%} [20%] (10%)
  • Rand Paul 11% {10%} [9%] (14%) {11%} [8%] (4%)
  • Paul Ryan 9% {5%} [12%] (11%) {8%} [9%] (12%)
  • Ted Cruz 7% {11%} [9%] (9%) {10%} [9%]
  • Marco Rubio 5% {7%} [7%] (11%) {10%} [10%] (19%)
  • Scott Walker 3% {5%} [2%] (1%) {4%} [0%]
  • Bobby Jindal 2% {1%} [3%] (4%) {3%} [7%]
  • Someone else/Not sure 7% {14%} [13%] (17%) {15%} [17%] (10%)

Survey of 314 Republican primary voters was conducted April 3-6, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 5.5 percentage points. Political ideology: 39% {37%} [35%] (38%) {37%} [36%] (44%) Very conservative; 32% {35%} [33%] (40%) {39%} [36%] (35%) Somewhat conservative; 21% {20%} [22%] (16%) {16%} [21%] (13%) Moderate; 6% {4%} [7%] (4%) {7%} [4%] (6%) Somewhat liberal; 3% {3%} [3%] (2%) {1%} [3%] (1%) Very liberal.  Results from the poll conducted March 6-9, 2014 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 6-9, 2014 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 9-12, 2014 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted December 5-8, 2013 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 8-11, 2013 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted December 6-9, 2012 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 3:24 pm. Filed under 2016, Mike Huckabee, Poll Watch

April 9, 2014

Poll Watch: Suffolk University Iowa 2016 Republican Caucus Survey

Suffolk University Iowa 2016 GOP Caucus Poll 

  • Mike Huckabee 11.02%
  • Jeb Bush 10.24%
  • Rand Paul 10.24%
  • Ted Cruz 9.45%
  • Ben Carson 8.66%
  • Chris Christie 7.09%
  • Paul Ryan 6.30%
  • Condoleezza Rice 5.51%
  • Marco Rubio 5.51%
  • Scott Walker 5.51%
  • Sarah Palin 5.51%
  • Rick Santorum 5.51%
  • Rick Perry 3.15%
  • Bobby Jindal 3.15%
  • Undecided 3.15%

Survey of 127 GOP caucus-goers was conducted April 3-8, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 8.7 percentage points.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 2:20 pm. Filed under 2016, Iowa Caucuses, Mike Huckabee, Poll Watch

March 29, 2014

Romney Redux?

There are a number of serious Republicans interested in running for president, at this early point, in two years.

Some of them, such as Senators Ted Cruz, Rand Paul and Marco Rubio don’t seem to have a broad enough base that would enable them to win the nomination, but they have motivated and vocal supporters, and if they run, they will be notable factors in the Republican primaries and caucuses.

Others, including Rick Santorum, Mike Huckabee and Rick Perry might be seen as figures of the past, and might not run (although Governor Perry is making serious noises about another run in 2016).

2012 vice presidential nominee Paul Ryan, Governors Susana Martinez, Scott Walker, Bobby Jindal, and John Kasich are frequently mentioned, but have yet to indicate their serious interest in 2016.

The two figures who would probably be frontrunners, Governor Chris Christie and former Governor Jeb Bush, have current political problems to overcome (although it is more likely than not that one of these two men will be the GOP nominee).

On the other hand, if the field is large, the primaries and caucuses very bitter, AND the frontrunners falter, the resulting stalemate might propel forward a name which has not really been mentioned seriously, 2012 nominee Mitt Romney, back into contention.

Romney was perhaps the wrong candidate for 2012 because his persona played into the negative Democratic media campaign that year, and because he did not, at the end, assemble as competitive campaign as did Barack Obama. But 2016 promises a very different political environment. After two terms of Mr. Obama, the voters may be weary of any Democrat (as they were in 2008 of any Republican). We must await the results of the 2014 midterm elections to draw more precise and verified conclusions, but Obamacare almost alone seems to be moving the electorate to the GOP, and threatening to ruin the Democratic Party brand for years to come.

In spite of withdrawing U.S. troops from Iraq and Afghanistan, changing our approach to the Middle East by diminishing our long alliance with Israel in a trade-off for (so-far) feckless relationships with other players in the region, and reducing our military and defenses, Mr. Obama’s numbers are very low in polls about his performance in foreign policy. He has been out-dueled so far in his relationship with Russian President Putin. His first term secretary of state, Hillary Clinton, is the presumptive nominee of the Democratic Party in 2016, but, although she will surely try to do so, it might be difficult for her to separate herself from Mr. Obama and her own actions (including her “re-set” with Russia) when working for him. (Remember Hubert Humphrey attempting to do this in 1968?)

Mr. Romney’s assertion that Russia and Mr. Putin were a major problem for the U.S., an assertion he made in the 2012 campaign, and subsequently ridiculed by Mr. Obama, looks rather prescient these days. So do many of his views on the domestic issues he ran on in 2012.

Only twice in the past 100 years has a defeated Republican presidential nominee been renominated by his party. Thomas Dewey lost in 1944, and lost again in 1948. Richard Nixon lost in 1960, but won in 1968 (and again in 1972).

In spite of his recent public visibility, there are no indications that Mitt Romney is even thinking about running again in 2016, nor under present circumstances, would he be considered a serious candidate. But in spite of the large number of major GOP candidates, the Republican field is not yet in focus for one of them to win the nomination.

Considering Mr. Romney’s stature, it is not without some curious interest to speculate, and it’s only speculation, that, in certain circumstances, he might resolve a GOP convention stalemate, or even earlier, return to the campaign field.

I’m just saying.

_________________________________________________________

-Copyright (c) by Barry Casselman. All rights reserved.

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