July 23, 2014

Poll Watch: PPP (D) Mississippi 2016 Republican Primary Survey

PPP (D) Mississippi 2016 GOP Primary Poll

  • Mike Huckabee 25%
  • Jeb Bush 16% (16%)
  • Ted Cruz 11% (19%)
  • Chris Christie 8% (17%)
  • Paul Ryan 6% (4%)
  • Rand Paul 6% (12%)
  • Marco Rubio 5% (8%)
  • Rick Santorum 3% (5%)
  • Scott Walker 2% (1%)
  • Someone else/Not sure 16% (10%)

Among Men

  • Mike Huckabee 22%
  • Jeb Bush 15% (15%)
  • Ted Cruz 13% (22%)
  • Chris Christie 10% (12%)
  • Paul Ryan 8% (3%)
  • Marco Rubio 8% (7%)
  • Rand Paul 5% (14%)
  • Rick Santorum 3% (4%)
  • Scott Walker 3% (2%)
  • Someone else/Not sure 14% (10%)

Among Women

  • Mike Huckabee 28%
  • Jeb Bush 18% (18%)
  • Ted Cruz 9% (17%)
  • Chris Christie 7% (23%)
  • Rand Paul 7% (10%)
  • Paul Ryan 4% (5%)
  • Marco Rubio 3% (9%)
  • Rick Santorum 2% (6%)
  • Scott Walker 1% (0%)
  • Someone else/Not sure 19% (10%)

Survey of 434 usual Republican primary voters was conducted July 10-13, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 4.7 percentage points. Political ideology: 44% (46%) Very conservative; 35% (33%) Somewhat conservative; 17% (15%) Moderate; 3% (4%) Somewhat liberal; 0% (3%) Very liberal. Results from the poll conducted November 15-17, 2013 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 4:58 pm. Filed under 2016, Mike Huckabee, Poll Watch

July 9, 2014

Poll Watch: PPP (D) Louisiana 2016 Presidential Survey

PPP (D) Louisiana 2016 Presidential Poll 

  • Jeb Bush (R) 46% {50%} [44%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 45% {43%} [44%]
  • Mike Huckabee (R) 46% {49%}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 45% {44%}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 46% {43%} [44%]  
  • Rand Paul (R) 46% {47%} [45%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 46%
  • Ted Cruz (R) 45%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 46% {43%} [42%]
  • Chris Christie (R) 42% {44%} [41%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 48% {45%} [47%] (48%)
  • Bobby Jindal (R) 44% {47%} [40%] (45%)

Among Men

  • Jeb Bush (R) 47% {52%} [49%] 
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 42% {39%} [37%]
  • Mike Huckabee (R) 53% {54%} 
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 39% {40%}
  • Rand Paul (R) 52% {51%} [51%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 41% {39%} [37%]
  • Ted Cruz (R) 53%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 41%
  • Chris Christie (R) 48% {51%} [44%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 40% {36%} [35%]
  • Bobby Jindal (R) 49% {50%} [44%] (54%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 42% {43%} [42%] (40%)

Among Women 

  • Hillary Clinton (D) 48% {45%} [52%]
  • Jeb Bush (R) 45% {48%} [39%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 50% {46%}
  • Mike Huckabee (R) 40% {45%}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 50% {46%} [51%]
  • Rand Paul (R) 40% {44%} [39%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 50% 
  • Ted Cruz (R) 39%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 51% {48%} [49%]
  • Chris Christie (R) 37% {39%} [37%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 53% {47%} [53%] (56%)
  • Bobby Jindal (R) 39% {44%} [36%] (36%)

Do you think Bobby Jindal should run for President in 2016, or not?

  • He should run 17% {25%} [17%] (24%)
  • He should not 72% {63%} [72%] (66%)
Survey of 664 registered voters was conducted June 26-29, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 3.8 percentage points. Party ID: 44% {42%} [45%] (43%) Democrat; 36% {38%} [36%] (39%) Republican; 20% {20%} [18%] (17%) Independent/Other.  Political ideology: 29% {32%} [27%] (28%) Moderate; 24% {25%} [31%] (22%) Somewhat conservative; 22% {21%} [22%] (26%) Very conservative; 17% {13%} [12%] (12%) Somewhat liberal; 7% {9%} [9%] (12%) Very liberal. Results from the poll conducted February 6-9, 2014 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 16-19, 2013 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 8-12, 2013 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 12:00 pm. Filed under 2016, Hillary Clinton, Jeb Bush, Mike Huckabee, Poll Watch

May 23, 2014

Poll Watch: PPP (D) Iowa 2016 Republican Caucus Survey

PPP (D) Iowa 2016 GOP Caucus Poll

  • Mike Huckabee 20% {17%} (16%{15%} [17%] (16%
  • Ted Cruz 15% {10%} [10%]
  • Jeb Bush 12% {13%} [14%] (14%) {11%} [8%] (10%)
  • Rand Paul 10% {14%} [18%] (15%) {5%} [11%] (9%)
  • Chris Christie 9% {10%} [16%] (12%) {12%} [16%] (15%)
  • Paul Ryan 8% {9%} [15%] (10%) {12%} [6%] (5%)
  • Scott Walker 6% {7%}
  • Marco Rubio 4% {3%} [11%] (16%) {12%} [10%] (7%)
  • Rick Santorum 3% [6%] {10%} [17%] (16%)
  • Someone else/Not sure 13% {11%} [7%] (7%) {8%} [8%] (10%)

Among Men

  • Ted Cruz 20% {10%} [13%]
  • Mike Huckabee 18% {19%} (14%) {13%} [13%] (11%)
  • Jeb Bush 11% {9%} [13%] (16%) {11%} [8%] (9%)
  • Rand Paul 11% {14%} [21%] (14%) {6%} [16%] (10%)
  • Chris Christie 10% {7%} [17%] (12%) {14%} [15%] (17%)
  • Scott Walker 6% {11%}
  • Paul Ryan 6% {8%} [11%] (10%) {7%} [8%] (3%)
  • Marco Rubio 5% {3%} [10%] (17%) {15%} [8%] (9%)
  • Rick Santorum 3% [5%] {10%} [17%] (19%)
  • Someone else/Not sure 10% {9%} [4%] (6%) {8%} [5%] (11%)

Among Women 

  • Mike Huckabee 23% {15%} (18%) {17%} [21%] (22%)
  • Jeb Bush 14% {17%} [15%] (12%) {11%} [8%] (12%)
  • Paul Ryan 11% {9%} [19%] (10%) {17%} [5%] (8%)
  • Ted Cruz 9% {9%} [7%]
  • Rand Paul 8% {14%} [14%] (16%) {5%} [5%] (8%)
  • Chris Christie 7% {15%} [16%] (11%) {10%} [16%] (13%)
  • Scott Walker 5% {1%}
  • Rick Santorum 4% [7%] {11%} [17%] (14%)
  • Marco Rubio 3% {3%} [12%] (16%) {10%} [11%] (4%)
  • Someone else/Not sure 17% {13%} [10%] (8%) {9%} [10%] (10%)

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net} 

  • Mike Huckabee 70% {63%} (64%) {68%} [68%] (69%) / 14% {19%} (22%) {16%} [20%] (12%) {+56%}
  • Sarah Palin 68% {61%} {60%} [60%] (70%) / 18% {21%} {26%} [26%] (17%) {+50%}
  • Rick Santorum 62% {44%} [57%] {64%} [65%] (68%) / 13% {21%} [15%] {18%} [22%] (17%) {+49%}
  • Rand Paul 60% {59%} [60%] (55%) {48%} [49%] (54%) / 12% {15%} [15%] (19%) {28%} [29%] (15%) {+48%}
  • Ted Cruz 58% {40%} [27%] / 11% {14%} [12%] {+47%}
  • Paul Ryan 60% {63%} [68%] (63%) {83%} [49%] (44%) / 15% {13%} [12%] (16%) {13%} [14%] (8%) {+45%}
  • Marco Rubio 51% {42%} [54%] (54%) {59%} [57%] (46%) / 10% {14%} [14%] (13%) {11%} [13%] (7%) {+41%}
  • Scott Walker 47% {39%} / 8% {12%} {+39%}
  • Rick Perry 53% {45%} (43%) / 16% {17%} (28%) {+37%}
  • Bobby Jindal 41% {36%} [42%] (43%) / 9% {10%} [14%] (11%) {+32%}
  • Ben Carson 37% / 6% {+31%}
  • Jeb Bush 48% {50%} [58%] (55%) {60%} [53%] (62%) / 25% {17%} [17%] (17%) {11%} [19%] (9%) {+23%}
  • John Kasich 18% {11%} / 10% {13%} {+8%}
  • Chris Christie 36% {38%} [45%] (36%) {55%} [57%] (50%) / 38% {35%} [27%] (33%) {21%} [17%] (16%) {-2%}
  • Scott Brown 12% / 17% {-5%}
  • Peter King 11% / 19% {-8%}
  • Donald Trump 30% {23%} / 40% {44%} {-10%}
  • Joe Scarborough 10% / 22% {-12%}

Survey of 303 Republican voters was conducted May 15-19, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 5.6 percentage points.  Political ideology: 42%{33%} [45%] (43%) {36%} [37%] (46%) Very conservative; 37% {39%} [33%] (31%) {39%} [40%] (35%) Somewhat conservative; 16%{21%} [16%] (21%) {19%} [16%] (14%) Moderate; 3% {5%} [5%] (5%) {3%} [6%] (3%) Somewhat liberal; 1% {2%} [1%] (1%) {3%} [1%] (2%) Very liberal.  Results from the poll conducted February 20-23, 2013 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 5-7, 2013 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 1-3, 2013 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted November 3-4, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 12-15, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 3-6, 2012 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 9:28 am. Filed under 2016, Iowa Caucuses, Mike Huckabee, Poll Watch

May 15, 2014

Poll Watch: PPP (D) Alaska 2016 Presidential Survey

  • Jeb Bush (R) 47% {47%} [49%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 41% {39%} [42%]
  • Rand Paul (R) 46% {47%} [49%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 40% {41%} [43%]
  • Chris Christie (R) 44% {43%} [46%] (43%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 41% {39%} [38%] (42%)
  • Mike Huckabee (R) 43% {45%}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 42% {41%}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 44% {44%} [49%] (53%)
  • Sarah Palin (R) 41% {43%} [40%] (37%)

Among Men

  • Jeb Bush (R) 58% {54%} [59%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 32% {33%} [31%]
  • Rand Paul (R) 55% {55%} [58%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 34% {35%} [34%]
  • Chris Christie (R) 51% {49%} [51%] (50%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 33% {34%} [31%] (35%)
  • Mike Huckabee (R) 51% {51%}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 36% {35%}
  • Sarah Palin (R) 50% {49%} [48%] (43%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 34% {37%} [39%] (46%)

Among Women 

  • Hillary Clinton (D) 48% {45%} [52%]
  • Jeb Bush (R) 37% {40%} [40%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 46% {46%} [50%]
  • Rand Paul (R) 39% {41%} [42%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 48% {44%} [45%] (47%)
  • Chris Christie (R) 37% {38%} [43%] (38%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 47% {47%}
  • Mike Huckabee (R) 37% {40%}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 54% {50%} [58%] (60%)
  • Sarah Palin (R) 32% {38%} [34%] (31%)

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Sarah Palin?

  • Favorable 36% {39%} [39%] (34%)
  • Unfavorable 56% {55%} [58%] (59%)
Do you think Sarah Palin should run for President in 2016, or not?

  • She should run 19% {23%} [18%] (16%)
  • She should not 74% {69%} [77%] (78%)

Survey of 582 registered voters was conducted May 8-11, 2014.  The margin of error is +/- 4.1 percentage points.  Party ID: 29% {33%} [32%] (32%) Republican; 18% {20%} [20%] (21%) Democrat; 53% {46%} [48%] (46%) Independent/Other.  Ideology: 31% {32%} [30%] (33%) Moderate; 22% {21%} [20%] (19%) Very conservative; 21% {23%} [25%] (25%) Somewhat conservative; 16% {16%} [17%] (15%) Somewhat liberal; 9% {7%} [8%] (9%) Very liberal. Results from the poll conducted January 30 – February 1, 2014 are in curly brackets.Results from the poll conducted July 25-28, 2013 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 4-5, 2013 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 2:00 pm. Filed under 2016, Chris Christie, Hillary Clinton, Jeb Bush, Mike Huckabee, Poll Watch, Rand Paul, Sarah Palin

Poll Watch: PPP (D) North Carolina 2016 Republican Primary Survey

PPP (D) North Carolina 2016 GOP Primary Poll

  • Mike Huckabee 17% [19%] (22%) {19%} [20%] (15%)
  • Jeb Bush 17% [15%] (18%) {12%} [15%] (14%) {15%} [16%] (9%)
  • Chris Christie 12% [9%] (12%) {15%} [11%] (17%) {19%} [20%](10%)
  • Ted Cruz 12% [17%] (12%) {14%} [8%] (11%) {12%} [12%]
  • Rand Paul 12% [15%] (9%) {12%} [14%] (14%) {13%} [12%] (6%)
  • Paul Ryan 8% [6%] (9%) {4%} [8%] (11%) {7%} [7%] (12%)
  • Scott Walker 5% (7%) {6%} [4%] (3%) {5%} [1%]
  • Marco Rubio 5% [5%] (5%) {5%} [7%] (9%) {10%} [10%] (21%)
  • Bobby Jindal 2% [4%] (2%) {1%} [3%] (5%) {3%} [6%]
  • Someone else/Not sure 11% [9%] (6%) {12%} [9%] (13%) {11%} [13%] (8%)

Among Men

  • Mike Huckabee 18% [13%] (19%) {15%} [15%] (14%)
  • Chris Christie 14% [9%] (12%) {16%} [14%] (18%) {18%} [19%] (10%)
  • Rand Paul 14% [18%] (8%) {13%} [19%] (14%) {15%} [16%] (9%)
  • Ted Cruz 12% [19%] (16%) {16%} [7%] (14%) {15%} [16%]
  • Jeb Bush 12% [15%] {13%} [18%] (14%) {14%} [14%] (11%)
  • Paul Ryan 7% [7%] (8%) {3%} [5%] (10%) {5%} [6%] (12%)
  • Scott Walker 7% (10%) {7%} [6%] (4%) {6%} [1%]
  • Marco Rubio 4% [6%] (6%) {3%} [7%] (7%) {10%} [9%] (22%)
  • Bobby Jindal 1% [4%] (1%) {2%} [3%] (6%) {3%} [5%]
  • Someone else/Not sure 11% [7%] (4%) {12%} [6%] (9%) {7%} [10%] (7%)

Among Women

  • Jeb Bush 23% [15%] (21%) {11%} [13%] (13%) {16%} [18%] (8%)
  • Mike Huckabee 16% [26%] (24%) {24%} [25%] (16%)
  • Ted Cruz 11% [13%] (7%) {11%} [9%] (9%) {10%} [9%]
  • Chris Christie 10% [9%] (12%) {13%} [7%] (17%) {19%} [20%](10%)
  • Paul Ryan 9% [4%] (9%) {5%} [12%] (11%) {8%} [9%] (12%)
  • Rand Paul 9% [11%] (11%) {10%} [9%] (14%) {11%} [8%] (4%)
  • Marco Rubio 5% [4%] (5%) {7%} [7%] (11%) {10%} [10%] (19%)
  • Scott Walker 4% (3%) {5%} [2%] (1%) {4%} [0%]
  • Bobby Jindal 3% [4%] (2%) {1%} [3%] (4%) {3%} [7%]
  • Someone else/Not sure 10% [10%] (7%) {14%} [13%] (17%) {15%} [17%] (10%)

Survey of 394 Republican primary voters was conducted May 9-11, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 4.9 percentage points. Political ideology: 40% [45%] (39%) {37%} [35%] (38%) {37%} [36%] (44%) Very conservative; 37% [35%] (32%) {35%} [33%] (40%) {39%} [36%] (35%) Somewhat conservative; 20% [13%] (21%) {20%} [22%] (16%) {16%} [21%] (13%) Moderate; 2% [4%] (6%) {4%} [7%] (4%) {7%} [4%] (6%) Somewhat liberal; 1% [4%] (3%) {3%} [3%] (2%) {1%} [3%] (1%) Very liberal.  Results from the poll conducted April 26-28, 2014 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 3-6, 2014 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted March 6-9, 2014 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 6-9, 2014 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 9-12, 2014 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted December 5-8, 2013 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 8-11, 2013 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted December 6-9, 2012 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 10:00 am. Filed under 2016, Jeb Bush, Mike Huckabee, Poll Watch

May 2, 2014

Poll Watch: PPP (D) Arkansas 2016 Republican Primary Survey

  • Mike Huckabee 38%
  • Ted Cruz 14% 
  • Rand Paul 13%
  • Jeb Bush 10%
  • Chris Christie 4%
  • Paul Ryan 3%
  • Bobby Jindal 3%
  • Marco Rubio 3%
  • Cliven Bundy 2%
  • Someone else/Not sure 10%

Survey of 342 Republican primary voters was conducted April 25-27, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 5.3 percentage points. Political ideology: 45% Very conservative; 29% Somewhat conservative; 16% Moderate; 6% Somewhat liberal4% Very liberal.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 6:00 pm. Filed under 2016, Mike Huckabee, Poll Watch

Poll Watch: Magellan Strategies (R) Ohio 2016 Republican Primary Survey

Magellan Strategies (R) Ohio 2016 GOP Primary Poll

  • Mike Huckabee 17% 
  • Rand Paul 15%
  • Chris Christie 13%
  • Jeb Bush 13%  
  • Ted Cruz 12%
  • John Kasich 10%
  • Marco Rubio 5%
  • Scott Walker 4%
  • Undecided 11%

Survey of 300 likely Republican voters was conducted April 14-15, 2014 for The Liberty Foundation of America.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 8:00 am. Filed under 2016, Mike Huckabee, Poll Watch

May 1, 2014

Poll Watch: Magellan Strategies (R) Arkansas 2016 Republican Primary Survey

Magellan Strategies (R) Arkansas 2016 GOP Primary Poll

  • Mike Huckabee 57% 
  • Rand Paul 9%
  • Jeb Bush 8%  
  • Chris Christie 6%
  • Ted Cruz 6%
  • Marco Rubio 4%
  • John Kasich 2%
  • Scott Walker 1%
  • Undecided 7%

Survey of 240 likely Republican voters was conducted April 14-15, 2014 for The Liberty Foundation of America.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 8:00 pm. Filed under 2016, Mike Huckabee, Poll Watch

Poll Watch: Magellan Strategies (R) Michigan 2016 Republican Primary Survey

Magellan Strategies (R) Michigan 2016 GOP Primary Poll

  • Mike Huckabee 24% 
  • Jeb Bush 16%
  • Rand Paul 15%  
  • Chris Christie 14%
  • Ted Cruz 7%
  • Marco Rubio 5%
  • Scott Walker 4%
  • John Kasich 3%
  • Undecided 12%

Survey of 271 likely Republican voters was conducted April 14-15, 2014 for The Liberty Foundation of America.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 7:00 pm. Filed under 2016, Mike Huckabee, Poll Watch

April 30, 2014

Poll Watch: PPP (D) North Carolina 2016 Republican Primary Survey

PPP (D) North Carolina 2016 GOP Primary Poll

  • Mike Huckabee 19% (22%) {19%} [20%] (15%)
  • Ted Cruz 17% (12%) {14%} [8%] (11%) {12%} [12%]
  • Rand Paul 15% (9%) {12%} [14%] (14%) {13%} [12%] (6%)
  • Jeb Bush 15% (18%) {12%} [15%] (14%) {15%} [16%] (9%)
  • Chris Christie 9% (12%) {15%} [11%] (17%) {19%} [20%] (10%)
  • Paul Ryan 6% (9%) {4%} [8%] (11%) {7%} [7%] (12%)
  • Marco Rubio 5% (5%) {5%} [7%] (9%) {10%} [10%] (21%)
  • Bobby Jindal 4% (2%) {1%} [3%] (5%) {3%} [6%]
  • Cliven Bundy 3%
  • Someone else/Not sure 9% (6%) {12%} [9%] (13%) {11%} [13%] (8%)

Among Men

  • Ted Cruz 19% (16%) {16%} [7%] (14%) {15%} [16%]
  • Rand Paul 18% (8%) {13%} [19%] (14%) {15%} [16%] (9%)
  • Jeb Bush 15% {13%} [18%] (14%) {14%} [14%] (11%)
  • Mike Huckabee 13% (19%) {15%} [15%] (14%)
  • Chris Christie 9% (12%) {16%} [14%] (18%) {18%} [19%](10%)
  • Paul Ryan 7% (8%) {3%} [5%] (10%) {5%} [6%] (12%)
  • Marco Rubio 6% (6%) {3%} [7%] (7%) {10%} [9%] (22%)
  • Bobby Jindal 4% (1%) {2%} [3%] (6%) {3%} [5%]
  • Cliven Bundy 3%
  • Someone else/Not sure 7% (4%) {12%} [6%] (9%) {7%} [10%] (7%)

Among Women

  • Mike Huckabee 26% (24%) {24%} [25%] (16%)
  • Jeb Bush 15% (21%) {11%} [13%] (13%) {16%} [18%] (8%)
  • Ted Cruz 13% (7%) {11%} [9%] (9%) {10%} [9%]
  • Rand Paul 11% (11%) {10%} [9%] (14%) {11%} [8%] (4%)
  • Chris Christie 9% (12%) {13%} [7%] (17%) {19%} [20%] (10%)
  • Paul Ryan 4% (9%) {5%} [12%] (11%) {8%} [9%] (12%)
  • Marco Rubio 4% (5%) {7%} [7%] (11%) {10%} [10%] (19%)
  • Bobby Jindal 4% (2%) {1%} [3%] (4%) {3%} [7%]
  • Cliven Bundy 2%
  • Someone else/Not sure 10% (7%) {14%} [13%] (17%) {15%} [17%] (10%)

Survey of 694 likely Republican primary voters was conducted April 26-28, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 3.7 percentage points. Political ideology: 45% (39%) {37%} [35%] (38%) {37%} [36%] (44%) Very conservative; 35% (32%) {35%} [33%] (40%) {39%} [36%] (35%) Somewhat conservative; 13% (21%) {20%} [22%] (16%) {16%} [21%] (13%) Moderate; 4% (6%) {4%} [7%] (4%) {7%} [4%] (6%) Somewhat liberal; 4% (3%) {3%} [3%] (2%) {1%} [3%] (1%) Very liberal.  Results from the poll conducted April 3-6, 2014 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted March 6-9, 2014 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 6-9, 2014 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 9-12, 2014 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted December 5-8, 2013 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 8-11, 2013 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted December 6-9, 2012 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 4:00 am. Filed under 2016, Mike Huckabee, Poll Watch

April 29, 2014

Poll Watch: Magellan Strategies (R) Iowa 2016 Republican Caucus Survey

Magellan Strategies (R) Iowa 2016 GOP Caucus Poll 

  • Mike Huckabee 17%
  • Jeb Bush 17%
  • Chris Christie 14%
  • Rand Paul 11%
  • Ted Cruz 10%
  • Scott Walker 8%
  • John Kasich 5%
  • Marco Rubio 2%
  • Undecided 16%

Survey of 331 likely GOP voters was conducted April 14-15, 2014 for The Liberty Foundation of America.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 3:01 pm. Filed under 2016, Iowa Caucuses, Jeb Bush, Mike Huckabee, Poll Watch

April 28, 2014

Poll Watch: The Daily Caller/Vox Populi Polling (R) Iowa 2016 Republican Caucus Survey

The Daily Caller/Vox Populi Polling (R) Iowa 2016 GOP Caucus Poll 

  • Mike Huckabee 20%
  • Paul Ryan 19%
  • Jeb Bush 18%
  • Ted Cruz 9%
  • Marco Rubio 9%
  • Rand Paul 8%
  • Chris Christie 7%
  • Scott Walker 6%
  • Joe Scarborough 4%

Survey of 168 registered Republican voters was conducted April 22-24, 2014.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 11:00 am. Filed under 2016, Iowa Caucuses, Mike Huckabee, Poll Watch

April 16, 2014

Poll Watch: McClatchy-Marist 2016 Republican Nomination Survey

McClatchy-Marist 2016 GOP Nomination Poll 

  • Mike Huckabee 13% (13%)
  • Jeb Bush 13% (8%) {8%} [10%] (10%)
  • Chris Christie 12% (13%) {16%} [18%] (15%)
  • Rand Paul 12% (9%) {9%} [12%] (9%)
  • Paul Ryan 12% (9%) {12%} [11%] (13%)
  • Marco Rubio 7% (12%) {7%} [7%] (12%)
  • Scott Walker 5% (7%) {4%} [4%] (2%)
  • Ted Cruz 4% (5%) {5%} [10%] (7%)
  • Bobby Jindal 4% {3%} (1%)
  • Rick Santorum 3% (2%) {5%} [4%] (2%)
  • Rick Perry 3% (2%) {6%} [3%] (4%)
  • John Kasich 0% (1%)
  • Undecided 14% (12%) {25%} [13%] (25%)

Survey of 416 registered Republicans and GOP-leaning Independents was conducted April 7-10, 2014The margin of error is +/- 4.8 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted February 4-9, 2014 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted January 12-14, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted December 3-5, 2013 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 15-18, 2013 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 8:00 am. Filed under 2016, Mike Huckabee, Poll Watch

April 15, 2014

Poll Watch: Loras College Iowa 2016 Republican Caucus Survey

Loras College Iowa 2016 GOP Caucus Poll 

  • Mike Huckabee 14.7%
  • Jeb Bush 10.7%
  • Rand Paul 8.5%
  • Paul Ryan 8.3%
  • Chris Christie 8.0%
  • Ted Cruz 6.2%
  • Marco Rubio 4.7%
  • Rick Santorum 4.7%
  • Scott Walker 4.7%
  • Rick Perry 3.0%
  • John Kasich 0.7%
  • Other 0.7%
  • Undecided 23.8%

Survey of 600 likely Iowa GOP primary voters was conducted April 7-8, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 6:22 pm. Filed under 2016, Iowa Caucuses, Mike Huckabee, Poll Watch

April 10, 2014

Poll Watch: PPP (D) North Carolina 2016 Republican Primary Survey

PPP (D) North Carolina 2016 GOP Primary Poll

  • Mike Huckabee 22% {19%} [20%] (15%)
  • Jeb Bush 18% {12%} [15%] (14%) {15%} [16%] (9%)
  • Chris Christie 12% {15%} [11%] (17%) {19%} [20%] (10%)
  • Ted Cruz 12% {14%} [8%] (11%) {12%} [12%]
  • Paul Ryan 9% {4%} [8%] (11%) {7%} [7%] (12%)
  • Rand Paul 9% {12%} [14%] (14%) {13%} [12%] (6%)
  • Scott Walker 7% {6%} [4%] (3%) {5%} [1%]
  • Marco Rubio 5% {5%} [7%] (9%) {10%} [10%] (21%)
  • Bobby Jindal 2% {1%} [3%] (5%) {3%} [6%]
  • Someone else/Not sure 6% {12%} [9%] (13%) {11%} [13%] (8%)

Among Men

  • Mike Huckabee 19% {15%} [15%] (14%)
  • Ted Cruz 16% {16%} [7%] (14%) {15%} [16%]
  • Jeb Bush 15% {13%} [18%] (14%) {14%} [14%] (11%)
  • Chris Christie 12% {16%} [14%] (18%) {18%} [19%] (10%)
  • Scott Walker 10% {7%} [6%] (4%) {6%} [1%]
  • Paul Ryan 8% {3%} [5%] (10%) {5%} [6%] (12%)
  • Rand Paul 8% {13%} [19%] (14%) {15%} [16%] (9%)
  • Marco Rubio 6% {3%} [7%] (7%) {10%} [9%] (22%)
  • Bobby Jindal 1% {2%} [3%] (6%) {3%} [5%]
  • Someone else/Not sure 4% {12%} [6%] (9%) {7%} [10%] (7%)

Among Women

  • Mike Huckabee 24% {24%} [25%] (16%)
  • Jeb Bush 21% {11%} [13%] (13%) {16%} [18%] (8%)
  • Chris Christie 12% {13%} [7%] (17%) {19%} [20%] (10%)
  • Rand Paul 11% {10%} [9%] (14%) {11%} [8%] (4%)
  • Paul Ryan 9% {5%} [12%] (11%) {8%} [9%] (12%)
  • Ted Cruz 7% {11%} [9%] (9%) {10%} [9%]
  • Marco Rubio 5% {7%} [7%] (11%) {10%} [10%] (19%)
  • Scott Walker 3% {5%} [2%] (1%) {4%} [0%]
  • Bobby Jindal 2% {1%} [3%] (4%) {3%} [7%]
  • Someone else/Not sure 7% {14%} [13%] (17%) {15%} [17%] (10%)

Survey of 314 Republican primary voters was conducted April 3-6, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 5.5 percentage points. Political ideology: 39% {37%} [35%] (38%) {37%} [36%] (44%) Very conservative; 32% {35%} [33%] (40%) {39%} [36%] (35%) Somewhat conservative; 21% {20%} [22%] (16%) {16%} [21%] (13%) Moderate; 6% {4%} [7%] (4%) {7%} [4%] (6%) Somewhat liberal; 3% {3%} [3%] (2%) {1%} [3%] (1%) Very liberal.  Results from the poll conducted March 6-9, 2014 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 6-9, 2014 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 9-12, 2014 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted December 5-8, 2013 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 8-11, 2013 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted December 6-9, 2012 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 3:24 pm. Filed under 2016, Mike Huckabee, Poll Watch

April 9, 2014

Poll Watch: Suffolk University Iowa 2016 Republican Caucus Survey

Suffolk University Iowa 2016 GOP Caucus Poll 

  • Mike Huckabee 11.02%
  • Jeb Bush 10.24%
  • Rand Paul 10.24%
  • Ted Cruz 9.45%
  • Ben Carson 8.66%
  • Chris Christie 7.09%
  • Paul Ryan 6.30%
  • Condoleezza Rice 5.51%
  • Marco Rubio 5.51%
  • Scott Walker 5.51%
  • Sarah Palin 5.51%
  • Rick Santorum 5.51%
  • Rick Perry 3.15%
  • Bobby Jindal 3.15%
  • Undecided 3.15%

Survey of 127 GOP caucus-goers was conducted April 3-8, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 8.7 percentage points.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 2:20 pm. Filed under 2016, Iowa Caucuses, Mike Huckabee, Poll Watch

March 29, 2014

Romney Redux?

There are a number of serious Republicans interested in running for president, at this early point, in two years.

Some of them, such as Senators Ted Cruz, Rand Paul and Marco Rubio don’t seem to have a broad enough base that would enable them to win the nomination, but they have motivated and vocal supporters, and if they run, they will be notable factors in the Republican primaries and caucuses.

Others, including Rick Santorum, Mike Huckabee and Rick Perry might be seen as figures of the past, and might not run (although Governor Perry is making serious noises about another run in 2016).

2012 vice presidential nominee Paul Ryan, Governors Susana Martinez, Scott Walker, Bobby Jindal, and John Kasich are frequently mentioned, but have yet to indicate their serious interest in 2016.

The two figures who would probably be frontrunners, Governor Chris Christie and former Governor Jeb Bush, have current political problems to overcome (although it is more likely than not that one of these two men will be the GOP nominee).

On the other hand, if the field is large, the primaries and caucuses very bitter, AND the frontrunners falter, the resulting stalemate might propel forward a name which has not really been mentioned seriously, 2012 nominee Mitt Romney, back into contention.

Romney was perhaps the wrong candidate for 2012 because his persona played into the negative Democratic media campaign that year, and because he did not, at the end, assemble as competitive campaign as did Barack Obama. But 2016 promises a very different political environment. After two terms of Mr. Obama, the voters may be weary of any Democrat (as they were in 2008 of any Republican). We must await the results of the 2014 midterm elections to draw more precise and verified conclusions, but Obamacare almost alone seems to be moving the electorate to the GOP, and threatening to ruin the Democratic Party brand for years to come.

In spite of withdrawing U.S. troops from Iraq and Afghanistan, changing our approach to the Middle East by diminishing our long alliance with Israel in a trade-off for (so-far) feckless relationships with other players in the region, and reducing our military and defenses, Mr. Obama’s numbers are very low in polls about his performance in foreign policy. He has been out-dueled so far in his relationship with Russian President Putin. His first term secretary of state, Hillary Clinton, is the presumptive nominee of the Democratic Party in 2016, but, although she will surely try to do so, it might be difficult for her to separate herself from Mr. Obama and her own actions (including her “re-set” with Russia) when working for him. (Remember Hubert Humphrey attempting to do this in 1968?)

Mr. Romney’s assertion that Russia and Mr. Putin were a major problem for the U.S., an assertion he made in the 2012 campaign, and subsequently ridiculed by Mr. Obama, looks rather prescient these days. So do many of his views on the domestic issues he ran on in 2012.

Only twice in the past 100 years has a defeated Republican presidential nominee been renominated by his party. Thomas Dewey lost in 1944, and lost again in 1948. Richard Nixon lost in 1960, but won in 1968 (and again in 1972).

In spite of his recent public visibility, there are no indications that Mitt Romney is even thinking about running again in 2016, nor under present circumstances, would he be considered a serious candidate. But in spite of the large number of major GOP candidates, the Republican field is not yet in focus for one of them to win the nomination.

Considering Mr. Romney’s stature, it is not without some curious interest to speculate, and it’s only speculation, that, in certain circumstances, he might resolve a GOP convention stalemate, or even earlier, return to the campaign field.

I’m just saying.

_________________________________________________________

-Copyright (c) by Barry Casselman. All rights reserved.

March 14, 2014

Poll Watch: PPP (D) 2016 Republican Nomination Survey

PPP (D) 2016 GOP Nomination Poll 

Given the choices of Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, Ted Cruz, Mike Huckabee, Bobby Jindal, Rand Paul, Marco Rubio, Paul Ryan, and Scott Walker, who would you most like to see as the GOP candidate for President in 2016?

  • Mike Huckabee 18% [16%] (13%) (11%) {15%} [11%] (17%)
  • Jeb Bush 15% [14%] (10%) (13%) {14%} [12%] (17%)
  • Chris Christie 14% [13%] (19%) (13%) {14%} [14%] (21%)
  • Rand Paul 14% [11%] (11%) (10%) {5%} [7%] (4%)
  • Ted Cruz 11% [8%] (14%)
  • Marco Rubio 6% [8%] (7%) (22%) {21%} [18%] (10%)
  • Paul Ryan 5% [8%] (10%) (15%) {16%} [12%] (7%)
  • Scott Walker 5% [6%] (4%)
  • Bobby Jindal 4% [5%] (3%) (4%) {3%} (3%)
  • Someone else/Not sure 9% [10%] (10%) (8%) {7%} [7%] (10%)

If Mike Huckabee was not a candidate for President in 2016, who would you support, given the choices of Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, Ted Cruz, Bobby Jindal, Rand Paul, Marco Rubio, Paul Ryan, and Scott Walker?

  • Jeb Bush 21% [18%] (12%) {14%} [11%] (13%) {15%} [12%]
  • Rand Paul 15% [13%] (12%) {16%} [17%] (16%) {14%} [17%]
  • Chris Christie 14% [17%] (23%) {16%} [14%] (13%) {15%} [15%]
  • Ted Cruz 13% [11%] (15%) {15%} [20%] (12%) {7%}
  • Paul Ryan 9% [9%] (11%) {11%} [10%] (13%) {9%} [12%]
  • Marco Rubio 8% [8%] (8%) {10%} [10%] (10%) {16%} [21%]
  • Scott Walker 5% [7%] (6%) [3%]
  • Bobby Jindal 5% [5%] (4%) {6%} [4%] (4%) {3%} [4%]
  • Someone else/Not sure 10% [11%] (10%) {8%} [9%] (13%) {15%} [10%]

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net} 

  • Mike Huckabee 62% [64%] (65%) (71%) {70%} [73%] (69%) / 18% [18%] (14%) (12%) {15%} [15%] (15%) {+44%}
  • Paul Ryan 58% [58%] {67%} [75%] (78%) {76%} [74%] (47%) / 17% [18%] {13%} [11%] (9%) {11%} [15%] (11%) {+41%} 
  • Rand Paul 56% [58%] (58%) {58%} [60%] (61%) {55%} [53%] (42%) / 17% [21%] (15%) {16%} [16%] (13%) {20%} [22%] (20%) {+39%}
  • Jeb Bush 53% [56%] (49%) {56%} [51%] (59%) {59%} [63%] (71%) / 21% [18%] (22%) {17%} [16%] (12%) {15%} [14%] (13%) {+32%}
  • Marco Rubio 46% {57%} [62%] (59%) {60%} [62%] (53%) / 19% {13%} [10%] (12%) {11%} [11%] (10%) {+27%}
  • Ted Cruz 43% [45%] (43%) {27%} / 20% [20%] (21%) {13%} {+23%}
  • Chris Christie 41% [40%] (47%) {42%} [41%] (42%) {44%} [49%] (62%) / 37% [38%] (29%) {29%} [29%] (27%) {29%} [28%] (12%) {+4%}
Survey of 542 Republican primary voters was conducted March 6-9, 2014.  The margin of error is +/- 4.2 percentage points.  Political ideology: 37% [39%] (39%) {42%} [37%] (40%) {38%} [35%] (41%) {39%} [38%] (41%) Somewhat conservative; 35% [37%] (34%) {34%} [39%] (35%) {36%} [39%] (41%) {37%} [39%] (36%) Very conservative; 21% [17%] (21%) {20%} [18%] (17%) {19%} [19%] (14%) {16%} [16%] (16%) Moderate; 6% [4%] (4%) {3%} [4%] (5%) {5%} [5%] (2%) {5%} [6%] (4%) Somewhat liberal; 1% [3%] (2%) {2%} [1%] (3%) {2%} [1%] (1%) {2%} [1%] (3%) Very liberal. Results from the poll conducted January 23-26, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted December 13-15, 2013 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted October 29-31, 2013 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted September 25-26, 2013 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted July 19-21, 2013 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted May 6-9, 2013 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted March 27-30, 2013 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted January 31 – February 3, 2013 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted January 3-6, 2013 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted November 30 – December 2, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 12-15, 2012 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 12:49 pm. Filed under 2016, Jeb Bush, Mike Huckabee, Poll Watch

March 12, 2014

Poll Watch: PPP (D) North Carolina 2016 Republican Primary Survey

PPP (D) North Carolina 2016 GOP Primary Poll

  • Mike Huckabee 19% [20%] (15%)
  • Chris Christie 15% [11%] (17%) {19%} [20%] (10%)
  • Ted Cruz 14% [8%] (11%) {12%} [12%]
  • Jeb Bush 12% [15%] (14%) {15%} [16%] (9%)
  • Rand Paul 12% [14%] (14%) {13%} [12%] (6%)
  • Scott Walker 6% [4%] (3%) {5%} [1%]
  • Marco Rubio 5% [7%] (9%) {10%} [10%] (21%)
  • Paul Ryan 4% [8%] (11%) {7%} [7%] (12%)
  • Bobby Jindal 1% [3%] (5%) {3%} [6%]
  • Someone else/Not sure 12% [9%] (13%) {11%} [13%] (8%)

Among Men

  • Chris Christie 16% [14%] (18%) {18%} [19%] (10%)
  • Ted Cruz 16% [7%] (14%) {15%} [16%]
  • Mike Huckabee 15% [15%] (14%)
  • Jeb Bush 13% [18%] (14%) {14%} [14%] (11%)
  • Rand Paul 13% [19%] (14%) {15%} [16%] (9%)
  • Scott Walker 7% [6%] (4%) {6%} [1%]
  • Paul Ryan 3% [5%] (10%) {5%} [6%] (12%)
  • Marco Rubio 3% [7%] (7%) {10%} [9%] (22%)
  • Bobby Jindal 2% [3%] (6%) {3%} [5%]
  • Someone else/Not sure 12% [6%] (9%) {7%} [10%] (7%)

Among Women

  • Mike Huckabee 24% [25%] (16%)
  • Chris Christie 13% [7%] (17%) {19%} [20%] (10%)
  • Jeb Bush 11% [13%] (13%) {16%} [18%] (8%)
  • Ted Cruz 11% [9%] (9%) {10%} [9%]
  • Rand Paul 10% [9%] (14%) {11%} [8%] (4%)
  • Marco Rubio 7% [7%] (11%) {10%} [10%] (19%)
  • Paul Ryan 5% [12%] (11%) {8%} [9%] (12%)
  • Scott Walker 5% [2%] (1%) {4%} [0%]
  • Bobby Jindal 1% [3%] (4%) {3%} [7%]
  • Someone else/Not sure 14% [13%] (17%) {15%} [17%] (10%)

Survey of 392 Republican primary voters was conducted March 6-9, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 5.0 percentage points. Political ideology: 37% [35%] (38%) {37%} [36%] (44%) Very conservative; 35% [33%] (40%) {39%} [36%] (35%) Somewhat conservative; 20% [22%] (16%) {16%} [21%] (13%) Moderate; 4% [7%] (4%) {7%} [4%] (6%) Somewhat liberal; 3% [3%] (2%) {1%} [3%] (1%) Very liberal.  Results from the poll conducted February 6-9, 2014 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 9-12, 2014 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted December 5-8, 2013 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 8-11, 2013 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted December 6-9, 2012 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 5:34 pm. Filed under 2016, Mike Huckabee, Poll Watch

February 27, 2014

Poll Watch: PPP (D) Iowa 2016 Republican Caucus Survey

PPP (D) Iowa 2016 GOP Caucus Poll

  • Mike Huckabee 17% (16%{15%} [17%] (16%
  • Rand Paul 14% [18%] (15%) {5%} [11%] (9%)
  • Jeb Bush 13% [14%] (14%) {11%} [8%] (10%)
  • Chris Christie 10% [16%] (12%) {12%} [16%] (15%)
  • Ted Cruz 10% [10%]
  • Paul Ryan 9% [15%] (10%) {12%} [6%] (5%)
  • Scott Walker 7%
  • Bobby Jindal 7% [2%] (3%)
  • Marco Rubio 3% [11%] (16%) {12%} [10%] (7%)
  • Someone else/Not sure 11% [7%] (7%) {8%} [8%] (10%)

Among Men

  • Mike Huckabee 19% (14%) {13%} [13%] (11%)
  • Rand Paul 14% [21%] (14%) {6%} [16%] (10%)
  • Scott Walker 11%
  • Ted Cruz 10% [13%]
  • Jeb Bush 9% [13%] (16%) {11%} [8%] (9%)
  • Bobby Jindal 9% [4%] (2%)
  • Paul Ryan 8% [11%] (10%) {7%} [8%] (3%)
  • Chris Christie 7% [17%] (12%) {14%} [15%] (17%)
  • Marco Rubio 3% [10%] (17%) {15%} [8%] (9%)
  • Someone else/Not sure 9% [4%] (6%) {8%} [5%] (11%)

Among Women

  • Jeb Bush 17% [15%] (12%) {11%} [8%] (12%)
  • Chris Christie 15% [16%] (11%) {10%} [16%] (13%)
  • Mike Huckabee 15% (18%) {17%} [21%] (22%)
  • Rand Paul 14% [14%] (16%) {5%} [5%] (8%)
  • Paul Ryan 9% [19%] (10%) {17%} [5%] (8%)
  • Ted Cruz 9% [7%]
  • Bobby Jindal 4% [0%] (5%)
  • Marco Rubio 3% [12%] (16%) {10%} [11%] (4%)
  • Scott Walker 1%
  • Someone else/Not sure 13% [10%] (8%) {9%} [10%] (10%)

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net} 

  • Paul Ryan 63% [68%] (63%) {83%} [49%] (44%) / 13% [12%] (16%) {13%} [14%] (8%) {+50%}
  • Mike Huckabee 63% (64%) {68%} [68%] (69%) / 19% (22%) {16%} [20%] (12%) {+44%}
  • Rand Paul 59% [60%] (55%) {48%} [49%] (54%) / 15% [15%] (19%) {28%} [29%] (15%) {+44%}
  • Sarah Palin 61% {60%} [60%] (70%) / 21% {26%} [26%] (17%) {+40%}
  • Jeb Bush 50% [58%] (55%) {60%} [53%] (62%) / 17% [17%] (17%) {11%} [19%] (9%) {+33%}
  • Rick Perry 45% (43%) / 17% (28%) {+28%}
  • Marco Rubio 42% [54%] (54%) {59%} [57%] (46%) / 14% [14%] (13%) {11%} [13%] (7%) {+28%}
  • Scott Walker 39% / 12% {+27%}
  • Ted Cruz 40% [27%] / 14% [12%] {+26%}
  • Bobby Jindal 36% [42%] (43%) / 10% [14%] (11%) {+26%}
  • Rick Santorum 44% [57%] {64%} [65%] (68%) / 21% [15%] {18%} [22%] (17%) {+23%}
  • Chris Christie 38% [45%] (36%) {55%} [57%] (50%) / 35% [27%] (33%) {21%} [17%] (16%) {+3%}
  • John Kasich 11% / 13% {-2%}
  • Donald Trump 23% / 44% {-21%}

Survey of 283 Republican voters was conducted February 20-23, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 5.8 percentage points.  Political ideology:39% [33%] (31%) {39%} [40%] (35%) Somewhat conservative; 33% [45%] (43%) {36%} [37%] (46%) Very conservative; 21% [16%](21%) {19%} [16%] (14%) Moderate; 5% [5%] (5%) {3%} [6%] (3%) Somewhat liberal; 2% [1%] (1%) {3%} [1%] (2%) Very liberal.  Results from the poll conducted July 5-7, 2013 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 1-3, 2013 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted November 3-4, 2012 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted July 12-15, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 3-6, 2012 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 11:13 am. Filed under 2016, Iowa Caucuses, Mike Huckabee, Poll Watch

February 24, 2014

Poll Watch: PPP (D) Kansas 2016 Republican Primary Survey

PPP (D) Kansas 2016 GOP Primary Poll

  • Mike Huckabee 20%
  • Chris Christie 13%
  • Jeb Bush 13%
  • Ted Cruz 12%
  • Rand Paul 11%
  • Paul Ryan 7%
  • Marco Rubio 5%
  • Scott Walker 4%
  • Bobby Jindal 2%
  • Someone else/Not sure 13%

Among Men

  • Mike Huckabee 21%
  • Chris Christie 15%
  • Jeb Bush 13%
  • Ted Cruz 13%
  • Rand Paul 12%
  • Paul Ryan 5%
  • Scott Walker 5%
  • Marco Rubio 4%
  • Bobby Jindal 2%
  • Someone else/Not sure 10%

Among Women

  • Mike Huckabee 19%
  • Jeb Bush 13%
  • Chris Christie 12%
  • Paul Ryan 10%
  • Ted Cruz 10%
  • Rand Paul 9%
  • Marco Rubio 7%
  • Scott Walker 2%
  • Bobby Jindal 2%
  • Someone else/Not sure 17%

Survey of 375 Republican primary voters was conducted February 18-20, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 5.1 percentage points. Political ideology: 32% Very conservative; 32% Somewhat conservative; 29%Moderate; 5% Somewhat liberal; 2% Very liberal.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 2:13 pm. Filed under 2016, Mike Huckabee, Poll Watch

February 18, 2014

Poll Watch: PPP (D) Louisiana 2016 Republican Primary Survey

  • Mike Huckabee 20% (18%)  
  • Bobby Jindal 13% [10%] (14%)
  • Ted Cruz 12% [8%]
  • Rand Paul 10% [18%] (8%)
  • Jeb Bush 9% [17%] (9%)
  • Chris Christie 8% [10%] (11%)
  • Paul Ryan 8% [11%] (7%)
  • Marco Rubio 7% [8%] (21%)
  • Scott Walker 2%
  • Someone else/Not sure 12% [13%] (8%)

Among Men

  • Mike Huckabee 20% (18%)
  • Ted Cruz 16% [10%]
  • Chris Christie 11% [10%] (13%)
  • Bobby Jindal 10% [9%] (8%)
  • Rand Paul 10% [22%] (9%)
  • Paul Ryan 9% [14%] (7%)
  • Jeb Bush 8% [15%] (9%)
  • Marco Rubio 8% [8%] (24%)
  • Scott Walker 2%
  • Someone else/Not sure 7% [8%] (8%)
Among Women 

  • Mike Huckabee 20% (18%)
  • Bobby Jindal 17% [12%] (21%)
  • Jeb Bush 10% [18%] (9%)
  • Rand Paul 10% [14%] (7%)
  • Ted Cruz 8% [6%]
  • Paul Ryan 6% [9%] (7%)
  • Marco Rubio 6% [7%] (18%)
  • Chris Christie 4% [11%] (9%)
  • Scott Walker 2%
  • Someone else/Not sure 18% [19%] (8%)

Survey of 309 Republican primary voters was conducted February 6-9, 2014.  The margin of error is +/- 5.6 percentage points. Political ideology: 37% [44%] Very conservative; 35% [38%] Somewhat conservative; 22% [11%] Moderate; 3% [5%] Somewhat liberal; 2% [3%] Very liberal.  Results from the poll conducted August 16-19, 2013 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 8-12, 2013 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 10:10 am. Filed under 2016, Mike Huckabee, Poll Watch

February 13, 2014

Poll Watch: PPP (D) North Carolina 2016 Republican Primary Survey

PPP (D) North Carolina 2016 GOP Primary Poll

  • Mike Huckabee 20% (15%)
  • Jeb Bush 15% (14%) {15%} [16%] (9%)
  • Rand Paul 14% (14%) {13%} [12%] (6%)
  • Chris Christie 11% (17%) {19%} [20%] (10%)
  • Paul Ryan 8% (11%) {7%} [7%] (12%)
  • Ted Cruz 8% (11%) {12%} [12%]
  • Marco Rubio 7% (9%) {10%} [10%] (21%)
  • Scott Walker 4% (3%) {5%} [1%]
  • Bobby Jindal 3% (5%) {3%} [6%]
  • Someone else/Not sure 9% (13%) {11%} [13%] (8%)

Among Men

  • Rand Paul 19% (14%) {15%} [16%] (9%)
  • Jeb Bush 18% (14%) {14%} [14%] (11%)
  • Mike Huckabee 15% (14%)
  • Chris Christie 14% (18%) {18%} [19%] (10%)
  • Ted Cruz 7% (14%) {15%} [16%]
  • Marco Rubio 7% (7%) {10%} [9%] (22%)
  • Scott Walker 6% (4%) {6%} [1%]
  • Paul Ryan 5% (10%) {5%} [6%] (12%)
  • Bobby Jindal 3% (6%) {3%} [5%]
  • Someone else/Not sure 6% (9%) {7%} [10%] (7%)

Among Women

  • Mike Huckabee 25% (16%)
  • Jeb Bush 13% (13%) {16%} [18%] (8%)
  • Paul Ryan 12% (11%) {8%} [9%] (12%)
  • Rand Paul 9% (14%) {11%} [8%] (4%)
  • Ted Cruz 9% (9%) {10%} [9%]
  • Chris Christie 7% (17%) {19%} [20%] (10%)
  • Marco Rubio 7% (11%) {10%} [10%] (19%)
  • Bobby Jindal 3% (4%) {3%} [7%]
  • Scott Walker 2% (1%) {4%} [0%]
  • Someone else/Not sure 13% (17%) {15%} [17%] (10%)

Survey of 305 Republican primary voters was conducted February 6-9, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 5.6 percentage points. Political ideology: 35% (38%) {37%} [36%] (44%) Very conservative; 33% (40%) {39%} [36%] (35%) Somewhat conservative; 22% (16%) {16%}[21%] (13%) Moderate; 7% (4%) {7%} [4%] (6%) Somewhat liberal; 3% (2%) {1%} [3%] (1%) Very liberal.  Results from the poll conducted January 9-12, 2014 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted December 5-8, 2013 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 8-11, 2013 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted December 6-9, 2012 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 4:00 am. Filed under 2016, Mike Huckabee, Poll Watch

February 12, 2014

Poll Watch: McClatchy-Marist 2016 Republican Nomination Survey

McClatchy-Marist 2016 GOP Nomination Poll 

  • Chris Christie 13% {16%} [18%] (15%)
  • Mike Huckabee 13%
  • Marco Rubio 12% {7%} [7%] (12%)
  • Paul Ryan 9% {12%} [11%] (13%)
  • Rand Paul 9% {9%} [12%] (9%)
  • Jeb Bush 8% {8%} [10%] (10%)
  • Sarah Palin 8%
  • Scott Walker 7% {4%} [4%] (2%)

Survey of registered Republicans and GOP-leaning Independents was conducted February 4-9, 2014Results from the poll conducted January 12-14, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted December 3-5, 2013 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 15-18, 2013 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers:

Without Christie or Palin in the race, Huckabee and Rubio tie at the top with 15 percent.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 9:59 am. Filed under 2016, Chris Christie, Marco Rubio, Mike Huckabee, Poll Watch

February 3, 2014

Poll Watch: CNN/ORC 2016 Republican Nomination Survey

CNN/ORC 2016 GOP Nomination Poll 

  • Mike Huckabee 14%
  • Rand Paul 13% [13%] (13%)
  • Chris Christie 10% [24%] (17%)
  • Jeb Bush 10% [6%] (10%)
  • Paul Ryan 9% [11%] (16%)
  • Marco Rubio 9% [9%] (9%)
  • Rick Perry 8% [7%] (6%)
  • Ted Cruz 8% [10%] (7%)
  • Rick Santorum 4% [6%] (5%)

Survey of Republicans and GOP-leaning Independents was conducted January 31 – February 2, 2014.  The margin of error is +/- 5 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted November 18-20, 2013 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 6-8, 2013are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 6:18 pm. Filed under 2016, Mike Huckabee, Poll Watch

January 31, 2014

State of the 2016 Presidential Field

With President’s Obama’s popularity waning, and with his promise of a transformational presidency long ago thwarted by his own inability to turn around the nation’s economy or enact a bold legislative agenda, eyes are beginning to turn towards potential presidential candidates on both sides of the aisle as Americans commence the search for a leader to move the nation forward and renew its sense of optimism.

On the Democratic side, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton leads her fellow Democrats by several laps, with even sitting Vice President Joe Biden polling well behind the seeming Hillary juggernaut. Given Mrs. Clinton’s popularity due to memories of her husband’s “Golden Age” economy, the contest for the Democratic nomination in 2016 may very well become a coronation. And though she currently leads all potential Republican presidential candidates in early polls of the general election, the aging Secretary of State is now tied not only to her popular husband’s Administration, but to the unpopular Obama Administration. It remains to be seen whether Mrs. Clinton can appeal to the American center the way her husband did, or the way she briefly did during her populist 2008 presidential campaign.

Meanwhile, the Republican field appears to be full of moving parts. In the wake of his re-election last year to the New Jersey governorship, Gov. Chris Christie appeared to be the frontrunner for 2016 due to his panache and charisma and his independent streak, all of which would theoretically allow the governor to sell the GOP message to the sorts of swing voters that Republicans will need in order to snag the White House in 2016. But “Bridge-gate” has hit Christie where it hurts, and with questions raised about the governor’s ethics in its wake, public support for Christie, both in New Jersey and nationally, is waning.

With Christie’s fall leaving an opening for another Republican candidate who could potentially garner non-traditional Republican voters, buzz began to circulate that former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee was considering yet another presidential run. Gov. Huckabee, during his races in Arkansas, had previously demonstrated an ability to perform disproportionately well for a Republican among usually solidly Democratic African-American voters. Despite strong poll numbers, Huckabee’s recent foray back into the spotlight has already begun to open old wounds, as his use of the term “libido” in relation to women has given Democrats an opportunity to try and reignite the 2012 “War on Women” that damaged the prospects of Gov. Romney. It is possible that Gov. Huckabee, for generational reasons, is ill-equipped to run a presidential campaign in a world where every word that comes out of a politician’s mouth is now fair game for a “hashtag” on Twitter.

Meanwhile, the candidates of the Republican base, such as Sen. Ted Cruz and Sen. Rand Paul, continue to perform strongly among Republican voters, while faring poorly in a general election matchup against Hillary Clinton. Sen. Paul’s attempt to become a more mainstream carrier of his father’s message has earned him a place in the Senate and a following among Republicans, but has not given him the kind of national following needed to win the White House at this juncture. Sen. Paul’s potential to perform solidly in both Iowa and New Hampshire during the Republican primaries will make him a force to be reckoned with nonetheless. At the same time, Sen. Cruz is attempting to become the Tea Party candidate for the 2016 cycle, a position that will make for a strong primary campaign but that might not translate well to success in the general election.

Still other prominent candidates are attempting to thread the needle and become a candidate who can garner broad support while still being rooted in the traditional Republican base. Rep. Paul Ryan, currently doing well in polls of Republican primary voters, is one such candidate. While his prospects were dampened by a less than magnetic performance during his stint as vice presidential nominee in 2012, Ryan remains a young, smart, articulate candidate who has positions acceptable to the base and who has demonstrated an ability to win crossover voters in Wisconsin. Still, whether Ryan has the charisma necessary to go the distance nationally remains to be seen. Sen. Marco Rubio once sought to fill the same position, but his star seems to have faded recently, as his positions on immigration reform put him at odds with the GOP base without doing him much good in the political center.

As such, the GOP field remains wide open for other entrants hoping to both garner the nomination and become the nation’s 45th president. One name beginning to surface is that of former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush. A popular executive in the state of Florida, Gov. Bush positioned himself during the last presidential cycle as a reasonable Republican who understands that the concerns of most voters are not necessarily on the same page as the “playbooks” of today’s Beltway political consultants. At least one poll has shown Gov. Bush holding Mrs. Clinton under 50% in a general election matchup in the all important state of Florida, and another poll shows only a two point gap between the two nationally. Moreover, Gov. Bush leads, or ties for the lead, in two recent polls of the Republican field, and has the potential to become the “establishment candidate” should he enter the race, a powerful position in a Republican presidential primary.

While many observers question the wisdom of another candidate named Bush leading the GOP ticket, the dynastic issues that would normally arise from a Bush nomination would be cancelled out by the nomination of Hillary Clinton to head the Democratic ticket. And while Mr. Bush would turn 63 in 2016, Mrs. Clinton will turn 69 that same year, meaning that both candidates will be Baby Boomers and neither will have a clear claim to Generations X or Y. And while Mr. Bush does not exude charisma, he does exude competence and statesman-like qualities, similar to Mrs. Clinton, and comes across as eminently reasonable for voters looking for a sober alternative to continued Democratic rule.

At this early juncture, though, anything could still happen. If a young, interesting candidate with potentially broad-based appeal, such as Gov. Susana Martinez of New Mexico, were to jump into the race, the dynamics of the race could change entirely. As would those dynamics change if Mrs. Clinton decided not to run. The reality is that the landscape of 2016, while coming into focus, is anything but certain.

December 13, 2013

It Begins…

This appears to have surpassed the “testing the waters” phase into a nascent campaign roll out:

Add another name to the list of potential GOP presidential contenders for 2016. Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee — the winner of the 2008 Iowa caucuses, who took a pass on the 2012 presidential race — says he might be willing to give it another try.

In an interview Thursday night, Huckabee said he is receiving encouragement to run “from places where I never got it before.”
That includes “business, people some would maybe call the establishment,” he added. Both groups were adversaries in his 2008 bid, which caught fire in Iowa, but sputtered in later contests where he lacked money and organization.

Huckabee was in Little Rock to give a keynote address to a dinner sponsored by the American Renewal Project, which is led by Christian activist David Lane and encourages evangelical pastors to become more involved in political action.

About 600 pastors and their spouses attended the event. Afterward, Huckabee held a private meeting with a group that had come from Iowa and South Carolina, both states where there are early presidential contests.

Although Huckabee enjoys strong support among conservative Christians, he sounded a much broader message.
What is driving him, he said, is “a sense in which I really believe the key to a Republican victory is an ability to communicate a message that speaks across a broader spectrum. One of our failures is the ability to speak to African-Americans, to speak to Hispanics, to speak to working class people — more than just speaking to the board room, speaking to the people who go in and clean up after the meeting.”

Full story here.

by @ 11:37 am. Filed under 2016, Mike Huckabee

October 16, 2013

Mike Huckabee Considering 2016 Presidential Run

In an interview with CBN’s David Brody, Gov. Mike Huckabee states that he has already spoken with advisors regarding a 2016 presidential run:


by @ 11:39 am. Filed under 2016, Mike Huckabee

September 27, 2013

The Myth Of The Government Shut-Down

The government of the United States is not going to be shut down this week. Or next week. Even if the continuing budget resolution is not passed by both the U.S. house and senate, and signed by the president, the government will not be shut down.

A government “shut-down” has become a term of political myth, partisan melodrama, and rhetorical comedy.

First, the vital functions of the government are not ever shut down. Second, the current impasse is an incessant replay of a wearying political soap opera in which one party attempts to score points in public opinion against the other party. (Usually these points are won by the party occupying the White House because of any president’s media advantage. This also heavily favors Democrats since the Old Media overwhelmingly favors the liberal party.) Third, most of those who endure any consequences are government employees, most of whom vote for Democrats. Presidents can also easily grandstand by closing down low-cost items such as White House tours (which are made to seem much more important than they are).

The last “shut-down” confrontation produced the celebrated “sequesters” which were advertised in advance by the Obama administration as imminent disasters. In fact, the sequesters have turned out to be rather effective, if uneven, as a limit on public spending and only a minor inconvenience. Sequestering is not a viable permanent solution, but as a short-term strategy, it has turned out rather well.

Obamacare is in deep trouble. The administration has already postponed major parts of the legislation, and might have to postpone more. The various components of the labyrinthine so-called healthcare reform are mostly not ready to be implemented. The Democratic legislation itself is extraordinarily unpopular, and in 2010 led to an electoral disaster in that year’s midterm elections. It threatens to result in the same in 2014. Various states have already begun to set up Obamacare exchanges, and some are claiming they will work, but the numbers so far do not add up.

Senator Ted Cruz conducted a 21-hour pseudo-filibuster against funding Obamacare, but it was not meant to be anything more than a publicity monologue for the Texas senator, aimed at the conservative political base. Immediately after concluding his effort, Mr. Cruz voted along with the entire senate (100-0) to begin debate on the continuing resolution — a debate that inevitably led to its passage.

The U.S. house has voted one more time to defund Obamacare, with Republicans again fulfilling their promise to vote against the unpopular legislation. However, without control of the U.S. senate and the White House, any action of theirs is merely symbolic, and cannot accomplish anything except public relations.

Some of the most thoughtful conservatives who strongly oppose Obamacare have suggested that Republicans in Congress should, in effect, get out of the way, and let the long-winded, contradictory and unsustainable legislation begin to take effect. As totally the political property of the Democratic Party, Nancy Pelosi, Harry Reid and Barack Obama, these conservatives say, let them take the inevitable backlash for its construction and enactment.Former Republican Governor Mike Huckabee, now a conservative TV commentator/host, has made this case particularly well.

Like so many political issues today, realities are clouded by emotional and intimidating rhetoric. “Governmentshut-down” is one of the most blatant examples of this.

The public should ignore these petty games, and demand that both parties work out settlements that will actually improve healthcare delivery, boost the economy by helping entrepreneurship, lower unemployment and stimulate positively the public markets.

———————————————————————————-
Copyright (c) 2013 by Barry Casselman. All rights reserved.

by @ 12:06 pm. Filed under 2013, Campaign Issues, Mike Huckabee, Spending, Ted Cruz

June 30, 2013

The Specularazzi Go Hyper-Forward To 2016

We remain only in the first year of the second term of Barack Obama’s presidency, and the media specularazzi are already churning in predictions and conclusions. It seems, in recent cycles, it always to go this way with breathless prognostications, meaningless polls, and reports of instant political “nosedives”of frontrunners and other presidential hopefuls.

On the Democratic side, the race has been declared “over” by virtually all the specularazzi, i.e., that Hillary Clinton already has the nomination in her handbag, and thus no more need be said. The fact that the identical conclusion was reached by consensus in 2006, and did not come to pass, seems to be of no import to the specularazzi. Of course, Mrs. Clinton has “total” name recognition, and it has been declared that it’s “her turn”by her old supporters. She will, of course, be nearly 70 years old in 2016, her record as secretary of state now judged to be “controversial” and uneven at best. She is a poor public speaker, and has no distinction as an administrator. Nevertheless, she is “inevitable.” Fast-forwarding is so much fun, is it not?

By the way, I wonder if Andrew Cuomo, Mark Warner, Evan Bayh, Cory Booker, Heidi Heitkamp, Joe Manchin, Ron Wyden and other talented younger Democrats are so willing to throw in the towel this far in advance. Perhaps. Perhaps not.

On the Republican side, there is more debate. Early favorite Senator Marco Rubio has gambled big-time on immigration reform legislation that is very unpopular with many in the GOP grass roots. Likewise, high profile New Jersey Governor Chris Christie has been declared to have “crossed the line” with his handling of a U.S. senate vacancy and his “moderate” views. The new darling on the right is first-term Texas Senator Ted Cruz, an outspoken and smart conservative who seems to be filling a temporary political void. Concurrent with the seeming decline of Mr. Rubio, there has been a revival of the only man in recent U.S. history who has been disqualified for the presidency solely because of his surname, i.e., former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, a man with genuine accomplishments, proven intelligence and, oh yes, all kinds of Hispanic credentials.

Of course, the Republicans also have a stable of old war horses, including Rick Perry, Mike Huckabee, Rick Santorum, et al, but unlike 2008 and 2012, there are none who might legitimately claim that it’s ”their turn.”

As I see it, Governor Christie, Senator Cruz and former Governor Bush, albeit with differing points of view, are rather talented fellows, and should make the 2016 contest (when we finally get to it) rather interesting.

In 2005, by the way, hardly anyone had heard of the person who swept to election as president only three years later.

_______________________________________________________________________________

Copyright (c) 2013 by Barry Casselman.   All rights reserved.

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