May 27, 2015

Poll Watch: Vox Populi/Daily Caller Early State Snapshot

Vox Populi, in conjunction with the Daily Caller, asked GOP primary voters in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina last weekend whether or not they would consider voting for a bunch of different Republican candidates. Across all three states combined, here were the totals (would consider/would not consider, with the remainder being neutral or don’t know):

  • Rubio – 56/19
  • Walker – 52/16
  • Carson – 48/20
  • Huckabee – 46/32
  • Cruz – 43/29
  • Perry – 40/31
  • Paul – 41/33
  • Bush – 42/36
  • Fiorina – 29/24
  • Jindal – 30/27
  • Santorum – 34/37
  • Kasich – 16/28
  • Christie – 30/46
  • Graham – 28/45

A few notes before we move on to the individual states: first, this is obviously great news for fans of Senator Rubio and Governor Walker. I am surprised at how high Ben Carson is on this list, though — at +28, he beats everybody except the two frontrunners. At +14, Huckabee has now sunk to match Ted Cruz, both of whom have little to no chance of winning the nomination at this point. Bush continues to poll poorly in these sorts of surveys, with a full 36% of GOP voters saying they would not consider voting for him. That’s the highest of anyone except Santorum, Christie, and Graham — indicating he will have the tiniest margin for error once this campaign starts in earnest. And finally, if you are Rick Santorum, Chris Christie, or Lindsey Graham, why even bother? At least Bush has the establishment money and campaign infrastructure. Those other three have nothing.

In the three earliest states, here are the percentage of voters who would consider voting for a candidate:

Iowa

  • Walker – 64%
  • Rubio – 57%
  • Huckabee – 57%
  • Carson – 54%
  • Cruz – 48%

New Hampshire

  • Rubio – 52%
  • Walker – 47%
  • Bush – 45%
  • Paul – 42%
  • Carson – 42%

South Carolina

  • Rubio – 57%
  • Walker – 49%
  • Carson – 48%
  • Huckabee – 47%
  • Cruz – 42%

Some parting thoughts: Graham doesn’t even register in the top five in his home state. Jeb Bush isn’t in the top five in Iowa or South Carolina, and he only gets considered by 45% of folks in New Hampshire. Those numbers are going to be huge problems for him if he can’t move them before the votes start being cast. Surveys like this make it evident why niche candidates such as Paul and Cruz are’t going to be the nominee (and, to a lesser extent, you can throw Huckabee in that group as well). Finally, Walker and Rubio have the highest ceilings in every state. This thing could easily come down to a contest between the two of them, and I suspect that would be a scenario most Republican primary voters would be okay with. Rubio is the only candidate with a ceiling above 50% in all three states.

May 26, 2015

Tuesday Headlines and Open Thread

Welcome back from Memorial Day Weekend! Here are the latest R4’16 headlines for discussion fodder:

Jeb Bush

Scott Walker

  • Gov. Walker: Federal Government ‘Too Big to Fail,’ President Must Shrink it so it’s ‘Small Enough to Succeed’ (Breitbart)
    “I’d like to take huge chunks of the federal government and send it back to the states… I’d take major social service programs, I’d take transportation and infrastructure, workforce and development, environmental protection, and heck I’d take education… why not keep those dollars back in the states?”
  • Scott Walker Faulted for Failure of Wisconsin State Agency (New York Times)
    Democrats are also seizing on a Wisconsin State Journal investigation that found that under Mr. Walker’s watch in 2011, the development agency lent $500,000 of taxpayer money to Building Committee Inc, which had failed to pay taxes the previous year. The company, whose owner was a donor to Mr. Walker, later went out of business.
  • UW Colleges Shrink Administration to Deal With $6.7 Million Cut (Wisconsin State Journal)
    The University of Wisconsin’s network of two-year colleges plans to slash its administrative ranks — in the process cutting nearly 10 percent of its overall workforce — in response to Gov. Scott Walker’s historic $300 million proposed cut to the University of Wisconsin System.

Marco Rubio

  • Marco Rubio the hawk turned dovish on Syria in 2013 (Politico)
    At the heart of Marco Rubio’s presidential campaign rollout has been the message that, on foreign policy, he is the toughest hawk in the Republican primary field… But at one of the most hawkish moments of Obama’s presidency, Rubio was a dove.
  • Marco Rubio Feared by Hillary Clinton and Democrat Party (Breitbart)
    “[A] bunch of Democrat politicos, including some on Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton’s team, chimed in on how much they feared that Rubio would be the Republican presidential nominee in 2016.
  • Does Rubio Have a Spending Problem? (Washington Post)
    As Rubio runs for president, newly disclosed personal finance details have drawn fresh attention to a long-running problem during his political career: his struggles with money.

Mike Huckabee

  • Mike Huckabee and his tax plan got slammed on Fox (Business Insider)
    A few months after he left his gig as a Fox News television host to pursue the Republican nomination for president in 2016, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee was back on Fox News Sunday, and to put it mildly, things did not go well.
  • Mike Huckabee: Creating Cynicism (Washington Post)
    Former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee complains that trust in government is at an all-time low. Perhaps he is a cause not a solution.
  • Huckabee: SCOTUS cannot overrule God (The Hill)
    “For God’s sake, it isn’t the supreme being, it is the Supreme Court.”
  • What is the Huckabee Plan for Social Security? (National Review Online)
    There’s nothing in Huckabee’s attack that should be particularly appealing to working-class voters. Governor Huckabee claims to be representing average Americans against the rich and powerful. But his stances on Social Security should be understood as having the opposite effect.

Others

Have at it in the comments — and remember, no personal attacks and no abusive language.

May 23, 2015

A Cold-Hearted Look at the Politics of the Duggar Case

Looking a the Huckabee/Duggars saga entirely from a political viewpoint, Governor Huckabee will be seriously harming the socon cause if he does not withdraw.

If he had any chance of winning (I always thought he was quite a longshot, but others could reasonably disagree, and did so), that chance is now gone. He will be ‘the guy who supports child molesters’ in the public mind (whether that depiction is fair or not) and he will have absolutely no chance to expand his support beyond his current base, which he needed to do to be able to win.

He will however still have hardcore supporters (as demonstrated on comment threads here and, no doubt, elsewhere across the country), and this hard core will vote for him regardless of his likelihood of winning. And every vote cast for Mike Huckabee will be a vote that could have gone to another strongly-committed social conservative candidate who might actually win (e.g., Walker, Rubio, Cruz, or several others).

I am not foolish enough to think that my socon friends will listen to advice from me – they would probably rather slit their wrists. And slitting their wrists, metaphorically speaking, is exactly what they will be doing if they continue to support Mike Huckabee.

by @ 4:08 pm. Filed under Mike Huckabee

May 22, 2015

OPINION: The End of Mike Huckabee

Josh Duggar, the reality TV star and social conservative activist, was investigated for multiple sex offenses, including forcible fondling, against five minor children. Some of the offenses in question are felonies. Four of the molestation victims were other members of the Duggar family. Josh was accused by several minors of touching their genitals, often when they were asleep, but also when they were awake.

As horrifying as Josh Duggar’s crimes are, what may be even more disgusting are the actions of his parents, Jim Bob and Michelle Duggar. Despite Josh’s confession of his crimes, his parents waited more than a year to alert police to the offenses. During the months after Josh’s initial confession, another act of molestation occurred against another minor. The Duggars chose instead to seek religious remedies rather than alert the proper authorities about the crimes they were privy to.

Now, many people of differing political views can still easily see how wrong and criminal the actions of both Josh Duggar and his parents were. TLC, the network that broadcasts “19 Kids and Counting”, has pulled the show off the air. Most politicians who had been affiliated with the Duggars in some fashion were quick to distance themselves.  But not Gov. Mike Huckabee.  When he discovered his close friends and supporters were involved in a crime of molestation and cover-up, Gov. Huckabee had this to say:

“Josh’s actions when he was an underage teen are as he described them himself, ‘inexcusable,’ but that doesn’t mean ‘unforgivable,’ ” Huckabee said in a statement posted on Facebook Friday. “He and his family dealt with it and were honest and open about it with the victims and the authorities. No purpose whatsoever is served by those who are now trying to discredit Josh or his family by sensationalizing the story.”

There are so many things wrong with his response I hardly know where to begin. First, he refers to Josh’s “actions” rather than referring to them as “crimes”, minimizing what Duggar did right from the start. He also bizarrely claims that the family was “honest and open”, when in fact they concealed the crimes for over a year, a time period during which their son molested another child. Even more absurd, he claims the family “dealt with it”. Families are not allowed to police felony offenses, nor are local churches or family friends.

Gov. Huckabee claims the molestation of minor children is not “unforgivable”. This is a matter of perception and personal belief, but I would say the governor is in the extreme minority in this instance. The governor went on to say “good people make mistakes”. Yes, they do. But good people do not molest children, and they do not participate in a cover-up of such crimes. For the governor to minimize them, treating them as youthful indiscretions like experimentation with marijuana that can just be counseled on by the local pastor, is unconscionable.  His claims that Josh’s actions are “long-ago sins” is another absurdity. These are felony sex offenses, not coveting your neighbor’s flat-screen TV.

After making his defense of the crimes and the cover-up, Gov. Huckabee went on the offense against those who exposed this horrifying story. “No purpose whatsoever is served by those who are now trying to discredit Josh or his family by sensationalizing the story,” he claimed. Child molestation doesn’t need to be sensationalized, it is an abhorrent crime that even other hardened criminals have no stomach for. As far as what purpose the story serves, there are many. First, the Duggars are activists who frequently moralize on issues such as gay marriage or gay adoption, claiming gays are a danger to children. This incident exposes the incredible hypocrisy of those positions. Second, Josh Duggar was only “treated” by a family friend with no certification or formal training and has never been treated by psychiatric professionals, meaning he could still be a danger to minor children. Third, getting the word out about this type of crime and encouraging other victims to come forward and not be intimidated into silence is widely beneficial to help seek justice for the crimes themselves and in the recovery of the victims.

Gov. Mike Huckabee has shown poor judgement in the past, from his controversial pardons to his support of the disgraced Rep. Todd Akin, but this defense of a child molester is a disgrace. He is finished as a candidate for political office, and deservedly so.

by @ 3:04 pm. Filed under Endorsements, Mike Huckabee

May 20, 2015

Essential Reads / Wednesday Open Thread

Hillary Takes Questions after 40,150 Minutes
Washington Post
The clock has now been re-set.

Free Trade Is Not the Enemy
New York Times
Op-Ed by William M. Daley

When barriers disappear, we prosper. In the 17 trade deals the United States has concluded since 2000, our balance of trade in the blue-collar-goods sector went from minus $3 billion to plus $31 billion, according to an analysis of government data by the centrist policy institute Third Way, on whose board I sit. According to the International Trade Administration, export-related jobs pay 18 percent more than similar jobs in the same sector.

Mike Huckabee Hasn’t Changed, but the Calendar Has
National Journal
NJ suggests that the primary calendar (and especially the SEC primary) may give Mike Huckabee an advantage he didn’t have in ’08. However, the question is also raised whether that will matter if he doesn’t win at least one of the First Four, and if he can’t expand his base to be seen as more than ‘the Christian candidate’.

The Long, Weird History of the Flying Car
Popular Mechanics
Since flying cars came up in the recent discussion of driverless cars (not that I want to resurrect that one), this seems worth a mention.

Flying car

Addendum: Link to Rand Paul’s filibuster on the Patriot Act (H/T Hoosier Drew).

by @ 7:00 am. Filed under Hillary Clinton, Mike Huckabee, Misc.

May 8, 2015

New Huckabee Introductory Videos: Hope, Promise

Mike Huckabee has two new introductory videos. One entitled, “Hope” about his hometown. The other entitled, “Promise” narrated by his wife about him and their marriage. You can watch them both below.

__________________________________________________________________________

-Matthew Newman is an engineer and blogger who also writes at Old Line Elephant and Red Maryland. Follow Newman on Twitter @mdmrn.

by @ 12:39 pm. Filed under 2016, Campaign Advertisements, Mike Huckabee

May 6, 2015

May 1, 2015

Mike Huckabee Announcement Video: Nailed Shut

Feels more like an introduction video than an announcement to me. Feel free to comment below.

by @ 8:37 am. Filed under 2016, Mike Huckabee

April 28, 2015

Acceptability and the Big Three

The Cook Political Report, run by Charlie Cook, is one of the most well-respected political organizations in the country — not to mention one of the most impressively accurate in its electoral predictions. So we should all sit up and take note when they publish an article by their national editor, Amy Walter, with this sentence:

At the end of the day, when you put all the assets and liabilities on the table, it’s hard to see anyone but Rubio, Bush or Walker as the ultimate nominee.

That may seem like a no-brainer to some of us, but in a field that will potentially have 20 challengers, for a prediction made ten months before any actual voting takes place, and for such a reputable organization, this qualifies as a pretty significant assertion.

The futures betting sites (or what’s left of them after Intrade got shut down after the last presidential election) generally agree with Ms. Walter. Sites like PredictWise and Betfair give the trio of Rubio, Bush, and Walker a combined 70% chance at the nomination. (Bush currently comes in at 31%, with Rubio at 20 and Walker at 19.) In fact, the only other two candidates who are even given more than a 2% shot are Rand Paul (4%) and Mike Huckabee (6%).

In the latest Quinnipiac poll (a survey where Rubio, Bush, and Walker have all taken a turn leading the pack in the past several months), we can see just how strong the support for the trio is: they are the only three candidates in double digits in the topline results. But it goes even further than that: when Bush supporters were asked who their second choice was, Rubio and Walker were the only ones in double digits again (at 18% and 12%, respectively). When Walker supporters were asked their second choice, Rubio and Bush again clock in as #1 and #2, with 20% and 12% respectively.

In other words, if you chop of one of the three heads of this hydra, the others will only get stronger.

That’s a good reason to predict that one of those three will end up as the Republican nominee. It’s also one of the reasons I will go on record as predicting this primary will be less divisive than many think it will be.

With twenty candidates, it’s easy to imagine a scenario where the party splinters, messy intraparty fighting breaks out, and a brokered convention becomes a reality in Cleveland. Every slice of the Republican electorate will back their preferred candidate until the bitter end, with primary and caucus winners walking away with less than 20% of the vote. It’s going to be a messy, bitter fight, right?

I don’t think so.

A comparison between our potentially massive 2016 field of candidates and the fields of 2008 and 2012 is quite instructive on this point. In 2008, the three-headed frontrunning hydra was comprised of Rudy Giuliani, John McCain, and Mitt Romney. None of the three satisfied the grassroots side of the party — who could forget the campaigns against “Rudy McRomney”? The unease with the three moderate frontrunners led to a shifting groundswell of support, first for Sam Brownback, then for Mike Huckabee, and finally in the epic failure that was the Fred Thompson campaign. Eventually, the activist side of the party gave in to McCain’s inevitable nomination, but not before Huckabee stayed in far longer than he should have (“I didn’t major in math, I majored in God,” anyone?), leaving lasting wounds in the party.

And in 2012, the field only had one legitimate frontrunner: it was Mitt Romney versus everyone else. Some commentators even referred to the GOP primary as “Mitt and the Munchkins.” The fact that Governor Romney had to expend so much effort, time, and resources to dispatch ridiculously weak candidates like Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich displayed again how deeply uneasy and dissatisfied the party was with the GOP frontrunner. The White Knight candidacy of Rick Perry is also illustrative of this fact; likewise, many folks were pining for Mike Huckabee, Sarah Palin, Mitch Daniels, Paul Ryan, Jeb Bush, Haley Barbour, or Chris Christie to enter the race late into the campaign.

Our 2016 frontrunners stand in stark contrast to those of 2008 and 2012. In fact, after two elections where “dissatisfied” was the word most often used to describe the field, the opposite might be said of 2016. At this early stage, it seems everyone could be quite satisfied. The establishment-type folks who never like Romney find a champion in Jeb Bush — but even if Bush falters, they are okay with Rubio and Walker. The grassroots folks who never trusted McCain or Romney are finding plenty to like in Walker and Rubio. Even if they may be backing Cruz or Huckabee or Perry right now, when those candidates fall short those voters are generally okay with Walker or Rubio as well.

In 2016, there will be little yearning for a white knight candidate — partially because the field will be so large to start with, but mostly because the three frontrunners are acceptable to the varying factions in the GOP. And so this primary campaign will take on a different look: there will be no “flavor-of-the-month” candidates this time around because voters will not be attempting to find acceptable alternatives. There will be the big three, Bush and Rubio and Walker, who will ebb and flow, but remain the big three. And there will be movement in the second and third tier candidates below them as candidates like Huckabee and Cruz and Perry catch fire and cool off, but that movement will do little to impact the ultimate outcome of the race.

As Amy Walter put it, at this point in the Republican primary race it’s hard to see anyone other than Rubio, Bush, or Walker as the ultimate nominee.

April 23, 2015

Poll Watch: PPP (D) New Hampshire 2016 Presidential Survey

PPP (D) New Hampshire 2016 Presidential Poll

  • Hillary Clinton (D) 49% {50%} [51%] (52%)
  • Rand Paul (R) 40% {37%} [41%] (41%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 49%
  • Scott Walker (R) 40%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 50% (52%)
  • Marco Rubio (R) 38% (38%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 51%
  • Rick Perry (R) 38%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 51%
  • Ben Carson (R) 38%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 51%
  • Mike Huckabee (R) 38%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 49% {49%} [49%]
  • Jeb Bush (R) 36% {38%} [40%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 51% {43%} [43%]
  • Chris Christie (R) 36% {39%} [39%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 52% {51%} [50%]
  • Ted Cruz (R) 37% {32%} [38%]
  • Joe Biden (D) 44%
  • Scott Walker (R) 40%
  • Elizabeth Warren (D) 45%
  • Scott Walker (R) 40%

Survey of 747 New Hampshire voters was conducted April 9-13, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 3.6 percentage points. Party ID: 30% {27%} [30%] (29%) Republican; 28% {28%} [31%] (32%) Democrat; 43% {44%} [39%] (39%) Independent/Other. Political ideology: 32% {34%} [33%] (31%) Moderate; 21% {18%} [19%] (18%) Somewhat liberal; 20% {25%} [21%] (23%) Somewhat conservative; 15% {10%} [12%] (13%) Very liberal; 12% {13%} [15%] (15%) Very conservative.Results from the poll conducted January 9-12, 2014 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 13-16, 2013 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 19-21, 2013 are in parentheses.

Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

April 17, 2015

REPORT: Mike Huckabee to Announce Intentions Tonight on FOX News

by @ 11:11 am. Filed under 2016, Mike Huckabee

April 13, 2015

Poll Watch: PPP (D) North Carolina 2016 Presidential Survey

PPP (D) North Carolina 2016 Presidential Poll

  • Mike Huckabee (R) 48% [46%] {44%} [46%] (44%) {43%} [43%] (43%) {42%} [43%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 43% [46%] {46%} [45%] (45%) {46%} [47%] (48%) {49%} [48%]
  • Scott Walker (R) 46% [43%] (44%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 43% [45%] (46%)
  • Rick Perry (R) 45% [44%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 44% [47%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 45% [46%]
  • Marco Rubio (R) 45% [42%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 45% [47%] [48%] (47%) (47%) {49%} [51%]
  • Ted Cruz (R) 45% [43%] [40%] (41%) (41%) {41%} [39%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 45% [46%] [46%] (47%) {46%} [45%] (47%) {49%} [47%] (47%) {48%} [50%] (52%) 
  • Rand Paul (R) 45% [43%] [41%] (42%) {43%} [44%] (43%) {43%} [44%] (43%) {44%} [41%] (40%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 45% [45%] (45%) {44%}
  • Ben Carson (R) 44% [46%] (45%) {44%}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 45% [46%] (44%) {46%} [43%] (46%) {45%} [45%] (45%) {47%} [47%] (46%) {46%} [47%]
  • Jeb Bush (R) 44% [42%] (44%) {46%} [45%] (42%) {44%} [42%] (44%) {46%} [43%] (44%) {45%} [43%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 43% [45%] {44%} [45%] (45%) {45%} [44%] (46%) {46%} [45%] (42%) {42%} [43%]
  • Chris Christie (R) 41% [42%] {42%} [38%] (38%) {41%} [40%] (44%) {42%} [42%] (43%) {45%} [46%] 
  • Scott Walker (R) 48%
  • Joe Biden (D) 39%
  • Scott Walker (R) 46%
  • Elizabeth Warren (D) 36%

Survey of 751 registered North Carolina voters was conducted April 2-5, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 3.6 percentage points. Party ID: 43% [44%] (43%) {42%} [45%] (42%) {43%} [42%] (42%) {42%} [39%] (43%) {43%} [45%] Democrat; 36% [35%] (34%) {36%} [34%] (31%) {36%} [35%] (36%) {35%} [34%] (33%) {34%} [33%] Republican; 22% [21%] (23%) {22%} [21%] (27%) {22%} [23%] (22%) {23%} [27%] (23%) {23%} [21%] Independent/Other.  Results from the poll conducted February 24-26, 2015 are in square brackets.Results from the poll conducted January 29-31, 2015 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted December 4-7, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted September 11-14, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted August 14-17, 2014 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted June 12-15, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted May 9-11, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted April 3-6, 2014 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted March 6-9, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted February 6-9, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted January 9-12, 2014 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted December 5-8, 2013 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 8-11, 2013 are in square brackets.

Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 8:00 am. Filed under 2016, Hillary Clinton, Marco Rubio, Mike Huckabee, Poll Watch, Rand Paul, Rick Perry, Scott Walker

April 11, 2015

Poll Watch: Quinnipiac Colorado 2016 Presidential Survey

Quinnipiac Colorado 2016 Presidential Poll

  • Rand Paul (R) 44% (41%) {46%} [48%] (47%) {47%}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 41% (43%) {43%} [43%] (43%) {44%}
  • Marco Rubio (R) 41% (46%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 40% (45%)
  • Scott Walker (R) 42% (40%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 41% (42%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 41% (44%) {44%} [45%] 
  • Mike Huckabee (R) 41% (39%) {41%} [44%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 42% (44%) {44%} [45%]
  • Ted Cruz (R) 41% (43%) {44%} [42%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 41% (43%) {42%} [42%] (43%) {38%} [42%] (41%)
  • Chris Christie (R) 39% (34%) {40%} [42%] (42%) {46%} [43%] (44%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 41% (44%) {44%} [45%]
  • Jeb Bush (R) 38% (36%) {40%} [40%]
 Survey of 894 Colorado voters was conducted March 29 – April 7, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 3.3 percentage points. Party ID: 28% (25%){27%} [28%] (29%) {29%} [30%] (24%) Democrat; 26% (27%) {29%} [26%] (24%) {26%} [27%] (27%) Republican; 37% (39%) {37%} [37%] (38%) {38%} [36%] (42%) Independent; 9% (9%) {6%} [10%] (8%) {6%} [7%] (8%) Other. Click here to view crosstabs. Results from the poll conducted February 5-15, 2015 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted July 10-14, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted April 15-21, 2014 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 29 – February 2, 2014 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted November 15-18, 2013 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 15-21, 2013 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted June 5-10, 2013 are in parentheses.

Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 4:00 am. Filed under 2016, Hillary Clinton, Marco Rubio, Mike Huckabee, Poll Watch, Scott Walker

April 10, 2015

Poll Watch: Quinnipiac Iowa 2016 Presidential Survey

Quinnipiac Iowa 2016 Presidential Poll

  • Rand Paul (R) 43% {37%} [40%] (39%) {44%} (42%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 42% {45%} [46%] (49%) {45%} (46%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 42% {45%} [46%]
  • Mike Huckabee (R) 42% {38%} [39%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 41% {45%} [49%] (51%) {47%}
  • Jeb Bush (R) 40% {35%} [36%] (37%) {40%}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 41% {44%} [44%] (48%) {40%} [41%]
  • Chris Christie (R) 39% {34%} [36%] (35%) {45%} [41%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 43% (48%)
  • Marco Rubio (R) 40% (37%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 43% (51%) {48%}
  • Ted Cruz (R) 40% (35%) {41%}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 44% {45%}
  • Scott Walker (R) 40% {35%}
Survey of 948 Iowa voters was conducted March 29 – April 7, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 3.2 percentage points.  Party ID: 30% {26%} [27%] (25%) {28%} [27%] Republican; 29% {28%} [29%] (28%) {27%} [29%] Democrat; 37% {40%} [40%] (39%) {40%} [40%] Independent; 5% {7%} [5%] (7%) {4%} [4%] Other/Don’t know. Gender: 51% {52%} [52%] {52%} [51%] Female; 49% {48%} [48%] {48%} [49%] Male.  Race: 93% {92%} [94%] {92%} [93%] White; 2% {2%} [2%] {2%} [3%] Black; 2% {2%} [1%] {2%} [1%] Hispanic; 2% {3%} [3%] {3%} [4%] Other/Don’t know.  Click here to view crosstabs. Results from the poll conducted February 5-15, 2015 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted June 12-16, 2014 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 5-10, 2014 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted December 10-15, 2013 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 15-17, 2013 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted May 15-21, 2013 are in parentheses.

Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 10:00 am. Filed under 2016, Hillary Clinton, Mike Huckabee, Poll Watch, Rand Paul, Republican Party

April 8, 2015

America Take Action Web Ad: Rattlesnake

America Take Action is a PAC associated with Mike Huckabee and Huckabee is the one narrating this ad. It’s a foreign policy ad specifically dealing with Islamic terrorism.

by @ 8:01 am. Filed under 2016, Campaign Advertisements, Mike Huckabee

March 25, 2015

POWER RANKINGS: March

1.  Scott Walker  Governor of Wisconsin

The governor of Wisconsin has become the surprising early frontrunner, using his battle-tested record in the Badger State to bolster his standing in Iowa and New Hampshire. The early polling shows Walker has the most appeal among the GOP’s widening factions. Still, he has stumbled over several easy questions and with early staffing problems, leading some to wonder if he can handle the grind of a national campaign.

2.  Jeb Bush  former Governor of Florida

Gov. Bush continues to consolidate the party establishment and lock up major bundlers and donors, but so far that insider strength is not reflected in the polls. Bush lags in the early states for someone with such a famous name and his numbers among conservatives are dreadful. Still, Bush’s massive financial edge could more than make up the difference.

3.  Marco Rubio  U.S. Senator from Florida

Sen. Rubio is methodically building his 2016 effort, focusing on ideas and policies rather than splashy headlines. His efforts are winning plaudits in the early states, and earning him some of the best early poll numbers on favorability and likability. Sen. Rubio has also worked hard to build a relationship with 2012 nominee Mitt Romney. The senator has locked up a number of top Romney staffers, with more likely to join up soon.

4.  Ted Cruz  U.S. Senator from Texas

The Tea Party favorite was the first candidate officially out of the gate, launching his campaign from Liberty University, a direct play to win over the evangelical base. Despite his doubters in the mainstream press, the Princeton and Harvard-educated lawyer is in a strong position to unite the Tea Party and evangelical factions of the GOP.

5.  Rand Paul  U.S. Senator from Kentucky

The libertarian-leaning senator remains a top contender due to his his strong grassroots organization in Iowa and New Hampshire. Paul has successfully capitalized on his father’s prior campaigns to gain a foothold in the early states. However, with the growing crisis in the Middle East and the pending nuclear deal with Iran, Paul will find himself at odds with a more hawkish GOP.

6.  Mike Huckabee  former Governor of Arkansas

The author and former Fox News host retains positive favorable numbers and a deep connection to the party’s evangelical Christian wing while struggling with the donor class. Despite strong name recognition, Huckabee hasn’t been able to build a viable fundraising network outside of the evangelical grassroots. He seems to be far from the candidate he was in 2008, with a number of odd gaffes kicking off his 2016 consideration.

7.  Bobby Jindal  Governor of Louisiana

Gov. Jindal has worked hard to win over the evangelical and activist base of the party without burning bridges to the establishment. His efforts haven’t shown up in the polls as of yet, but they could help him stick around as a top second choice for a number of the GOP’s disparate factions.

8.  Chris Christie  Governor of New Jersey

Christie’s numbers at home continue to drop, and many are now wondering if the governor will pass on the 2016 race entirely. His team, however, believes Christie is still the best candidate on the stump, and will engineer a comeback to the top tier in the town halls of New Hampshire.

9.  John Kasich  Governor of Ohio

With upcoming visits to early primary states, Kasich has started to generate real buzz that he’s interested in the 2016 race. With a record of success in the nation’s most important swing state, the Ohio governor could be a dark horse establishment prospect if Jeb Bush stumbles.

10.  Ben Carson  retired neurosurgeon from Maryland

The conservative firebrand continues to build towards a campaign, despite a series of gaffes that highlight his controversial stances on social issues and his lack of experience. Dr. Carson will have to improve dramatically to capitalize on the real buzz, and money, his prospects have generated.

Honorable Mention:  Rick Perry, Carly Fiorina, Mike Pence

No Chance: Lindsey Graham, Rick Santorum, Donald Trump

 

 

February 26, 2015

Ben Carson at CPAC

Ben Carson gives the opening address at CPAC. C-SPAN has video of the first round of speeches here. His speech begins at 11:45.  It runs about twenty minutes.

Here are just a couple highlights:

“It’s interesting to me that the Left in particular loves to re-label and rename things. For instance, if you’re pro-life, you’re anti-woman. If you’re pro-traditional family, then you’re a homophobe…if you’re black, and you oppose a progressive agenda, you’re crazy. .”

“We are a very smart people and a very compassionate people, and we need to find out how [to] strengthen the framework of this country. It is our responsibility to take care of the indigent; it is not the government’s responsibility.”

PPP has him in second place behind Scott Walker and ahead of Jeb Bush in their latest national poll. Quinipiac recently had him in third place in Iowa, trailing Walker and Rand Paul, tied with Mike Huckabee, and once again ahead of Jeb Bush who only manages a fifth place finish.

For now he is solidly on the leaderboard. Can he stay there? Who knows. Go to the video and determine for yourself if you think he has what it takes to finish strong, or if he is going to end up being just another flash-in-the-pan.

 

 

by @ 3:46 pm. Filed under Ben Carson, Jeb Bush, Mike Huckabee, Rand Paul, Scott Walker

February 25, 2015

Poll Watch: Quinnipiac Iowa 2016 Republican Caucus Survey

Quinnipiac Iowa 2016 GOP Caucus Poll

  • Scott Walker 25%
  • Rand Paul 13%
  • Ben Carson 11%
  • Mike Huckabee 11%
  • Jeb Bush 10%
  • Ted Cruz 5%
  • Chris Christie 4%
  • Marco Rubio 4%
  • Rick Santorum 4%
  • Rick Perry 3%
  • Bobby Jindal 2%
  • John Kasich 0%

Survey of 623 likely Iowa Republican caucus participants was conducted February 16-23, 2015.  The margin of error is +/- 3.9 percentage points. Gender: 60% Men; 40% Women. Political philosophy: 45% Very conservative; 28% Somewhat conservative; 25% Moderate/Liberal.

Thoughts:

  • Walker’s doing very well in Iowa. He nearly doubles his closest competitor and enjoys a double digit lead.
  • Carson continues to be a strong second tier candidate.
  • The second tier in Iowa currently is Paul, Carson, Huckabee, Bush. They are bunched up within 3 ppts of each other — the MOE.
  • Bush barely cracks double digits.
  • The “noise” candidates are Cruz, Christie, Rubio,  Santorum, Perry, and Jindal. They are in the lower single digits with only Cruz managing to crack 5 ppts.
  • I am continually struck at the poor showing of Rick Santorum. He finished second in 2012. He should, by all rights, be at least in the second tier, but he consistently polls at or near the bottom of every poll.

Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

February 24, 2015

Poll Watch: PPP (D) 2016 Republican Nomination Survey

PPP has just released their latest 2016 Presidential polling for the Republican Nomination. Their results for the end of February are as follows:

PPP (D) 2016 GOP Nomination Poll

  • Scott Walker 25% (11%)
  • Ben Carson 18% (15%)
  • Jeb Bush 17% (17%)
  • Mike Huckabee 10% (9%)
  • Chris Christie 5% (7%)
  • Ted Cruz 5% (9%)
  • Rand Paul 4% (4%)
  • Rick Perry 3% (2%)
  • Marco Rubio 3%
  • Someone else/Not sure 11% (5%)

Survey of 316 Republican primary voters was conducted February 20-22, 2015.  The margin of error is +/- 5.5 percentage points.  Political ideology: 38% (38%) Somewhat conservative; 38% (35%) Very conservative; 17% (21%) Moderate; 6% (5%) Somewhat liberal; 2% (1%) Very liberal. Results from the poll conducted January 22-25, 2015 are in parentheses.

Trend lines:

PPP 2016 GOP Presidential Race

Some thoughts:

  1. I think it safe to call Scott Walker the legitimate front runner for now. This in spite of the almost manic frenzy the liberal press has been having lately trying to knock him out of the race.
  2. Jeb Bush is not doing so well. He is stagnating.
  3. Ben Carson is doing very well. He even tops Bush, though well within the MOE.
  4. Mike Huckabee is the only candidate that went from single to double digits. The rest of the field: Christie, Cruz, Paul, Perry, and Rubio — are going nowhere fast.
  5. Mitt Romney dropped out. Now that the dust is beginning to settle, it would appear that Walker and Someone Else/Not Sure are the key beneficiaries of Mitt’s withdrawal.

Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

February 23, 2015

Poll Watch: YeeHaw! Cruz and Walker Lead in Texas

A new poll out of Texas has Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker and Texas Senator Ted Cruz neck and neck in the race for the 2016 GOP Presidential nomination. The University of Texas / Texas Tribune have released the following results:

  • Ted Cruz 20% [27%] (33%) {28%} [32%] (25%)
  • Scott Walker 19% [2%] (4%) {6%} [1%]
  • Jeb Bush 9% [7%] (7%) {8%} [9%]
  • Ben Carson 9% [10%]
  • Rick Perry 8% [14%] (7%) {10%} [10%] (10%)
  • Mike Huckabee 5% [7%] (8%)
  • Rand Paul 4% [7%] (9%) {10%} [6%] (13%)
  • Marco Rubio 4% [3%] (6%) {6%} [6%] (11%)
  • Sarah Palin 3%
  • Chris Christie 2% [3%] (3%) {4%} [4%] (8%)
  • Bobby Jindal 1% [2%] (2%) {6%} [3%] (2%)
  • Rick Santorum 1% [1%] (1%) {4%} [3%] (2%)
  • John Kasich 1% [0%]
  • Carly Fiorina 0%
  • John Bolton 0%
  • Lindsey Graham 0%

Internet survey of 547 registered GOP primary voters was conducted February 6-15, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 4.19 percentage points.Results from the poll conducted October 10-19, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted May 30 – June 8, 2014 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted February 7-17, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted October 18-27, 2013are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted May 31 – June 9, 2013 are in parentheses.

The Tribune is calling it a tie.

The result I find most interesting is Rick Perry is in fifth place with less than half the support of either of the front runners. If this keeps up, his nascent 2016 campaign isn’t going to do much better than his 2012 campaign.

Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

February 20, 2015

Poll Watch: PPP (D) South Carolina 2016 Presidential Survey

  • Mike Huckabee (R) 49%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 41%
  • Ben Carson (R) 48%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 41%
  • Jeb Bush (R) 49%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 42%
  • Rick Perry (R) 48%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 43%
  • Scott Walker (R) 46%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 42%
  • Ted Cruz (R) 46%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 43%
  • Chris Christie (R) 43%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 41%
  • Lindsey Graham (R) 45%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 43%
  • Rand Paul (R) 45%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 43%
  • Jeb Bush (R) 50%
  • Elizabeth Warren (D) 34%
  • Jeb Bush (R) 53%
  • Joe Biden (D) 36%

Survey of 868 registered South Carolina voters was conducted February 12-15, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 3.3 percentage points. Party ID: 44% Republican; 32% Democrat; 25% Independent/Other. Ideology: 33% Moderate; 27% Somewhat conservative; 19% Very conservative; 13% Somewhat liberal; 9% Very liberal.

Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

February 19, 2015

Thoughts On the Latest CNN Poll

The latest CNN poll, as posted below, has Huckabee in the lead with Bush and Walker close behind. After all the usual disclaimers of it being a super early poll and all that goes with it, here are my thoughts:

I LOVE IT!!!

I can’t help it. It’s not that I am a big fan of Huckabee; I’m not. It’s just that I do not care all the much for Jeb Bush. Any poll that shows the “Republican Establishment’s” anointed one trailing is a good poll for me.

Bush represents the R.E. in a way that Mitt Romney never really did. Sure, they supported Mitt since he just might end up winning the White House, and he was the closest thing in the field to being one of them, but few of them ever seemed all that enthusiastic about him. They tended to treat him more like an outsider, which is not all that surprising really. Mitt never was much of a professional politician. He was a business leader who tried his hand at politics. His financial connections allowed him to get his foot into the clubhouse door but that’s about it. He never was a full member of the club.

Bush is different. The R.E. LOVES him. He’s one of their own after all — a true political insider, a full member of the club.  He has the backing of the Bush political machine, a machine that has won three Presidential campaigns. He’s a man that the professionals can get excited about. But they seem to be the only ones who are all that enthused for him.

How much support does Bush have outside of the R.E.? It doesn’t appear to be all that much. In that respect, he reminds me of John McCain and Bob Dole before him. The only people who seemed to have gotten really excited about either of those two were the members of the R.E.. The rank and file never showed that much enthusiasm for either of them. McCain did manage to hit a rich vein of grassroots support when he chose Sarah Palin for his running-mate, but for himself, there was very little.

Who are the candidates that currently have some serious core support among the rank and file? I would say there are three who currently have the capability of double digit support. In alphabetical order they are:

  • Huckabee,
  • Paul
  • Walker

I don’t see a whole lot of enthusiasm out there for anybody else, at least none that can be measured anywhere near double digits.

Do you?

 

by @ 12:45 pm. Filed under Jeb Bush, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, Rand Paul, Sarah Palin, Scott Walker

Poll Watch: CNN/ORC 2016 Republican Nomination Survey

CNN/ORC 2016 GOP Nomination Poll

  • Mike Huckabee 17% {6%} [10%] (12%) {11%} [10%] (10%) {14%}
  • Jeb Bush 12% {23%} [14%] (8%) {12%} [13%] (9%) {10%} [6%] (10%)
  • Rand Paul 11% {6%} [8%] (12%) {14%} [13%] (16%) {13%} [13%] (13%)
  • Scott Walker 11% {4%} [5%] (5%) {5%} [7%]
  • Ben Carson 9% {7%} [11%]
  • Chris Christie 7% {13%} [9%] (13%) {8%} [9%] (8%) {10%} [24%] (17%)
  • Marco Rubio 6% {5%} [3%] (6%) {8%} [6%] (5%) {9%} [9%] (9%)
  • Ted Cruz 3% {4%} [7%] (8%) {9%} [7%] (8%) {8%} [10%] (7%)
  • John Kasich 2% {3%} [3%]
  • Rick Perry 2% {4%} [5%] (11%) {6%} [8%] (11%) {8%} [7%] (6%)
  • Rick Santorum 2% {2%} [2%] (3%) {4%} [2%] (3%) {4%} [6%] (5%)
  • Carly Fiorina 1%
  • Lindsey Graham 1%
  • Bobby Jindal 1% {4%} [1%]

Survey of 436 Republicans and GOP-leaning Independents was conducted February 12-15, 2015.  The margin of error is +/- 4.5 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted December 18-21, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted November 21-23, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted July 18-20, 2014 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted May 29 – June 1, 2014 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 2-4, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted March 7-9, 2014 are in parentheses.   Results from the poll conducted January 31 – February 2, 2014 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 18-20, 2013 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 6-8, 2013 are in parentheses.

Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 4:00 am. Filed under 2016, Mike Huckabee, Poll Watch, Republican Party

February 16, 2015

Nevada Might Actually Matter

Scott Conroy has an interesting article on RCP today, arguing that, with Mitt Romney out, Nevada might be important this cycle.

I read it shortly after looking through the NBC/Marist polls below that show three different leaders in the first three states. Though I am thoroughly skeptical of polls this far in advance of voting, I considered the off-chance that they might be right, and that Mike Huckabee might win Iowa, Jeb Bush New Hampshire, and Lindsey Graham South Carolina. In that unlikely scenario, Nevada might play a huge role as a tie-breaker (or logjam-breaker). Except:

Though it is far too early to put much weight into such surveys, a poll conducted by the group Citizens for Responsible Energy Solutions found a wide-open race among likely GOP caucus-goers with Scott Walker (18 percent), Jeb Bush (12 percent) and Rand Paul (9 percent) constituting the top three.

Oh great, four winners in four states!

by @ 12:05 pm. Filed under Jeb Bush, Lindsey Graham, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, Scott Walker, Uncategorized

Poll Watch: NBC News/Marist Early State 2016 Republican Primary/Caucus Surveys

NBC News/Marist Iowa 2016 GOP Caucus Poll

  • Mike Huckabee 17%
  • Jeb Bush 16% (12%)
  • Scott Walker 15% (5%)
  • Chris Christie 9% (8%)
  • Rand Paul 7% (12%)
  • Marco Rubio 6% (7%)
  • Ben Carson 6%
  • Rick Santorum 5% (9%)
  • Rick Perry 4% (7%)
  • Ted Cruz 2% (7%)
  • Lindsey Graham 1%
  • Undecided 14% (20%)

Survey of 320 potential GOP caucus-goers was conducted February 3-10, 2015.  The margin of error is +/- 5.5 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted July 7-13, 2014 are in parentheses.

NBC News/Marist New Hampshire 2016 GOP Primary Poll

  • Jeb Bush 18% (10%)
  • Scott Walker 15% (6%)
  • Rand Paul 14% (14%)
  • Chris Christie 13% (13%)
  • Mike Huckabee 7%
  • Ben Carson 7%
  • Ted Cruz 6% (9%)
  • Marco Rubio 6% (7%)
  • Rick Perry 1% (5%)
  • Lindsey Graham 1%
  • Rick Santorum 1% (3%)
  • Undecided 13% (22%)

Survey of 381 potential GOP primary voters was conducted February 3-10, 2015.  The margin of error is +/- 5.0 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted July 7-13, 2014 are in parentheses.

NBC News/Marist South Carolina 2016 GOP Primary Poll

  • Lindsey Graham 17%
  • Jeb Bush 15%
  • Scott Walker 12%
  • Mike Huckabee 10%
  • Ben Carson 10%
  • Rand Paul 7%
  • Chris Christie 6%
  • Marco Rubio 4%
  • Rick Perry 4%
  • Rick Santorum 3%
  • Ted Cruz 1%
  • Undecided 11%

Survey of 450 potential GOP primary voters was conducted February 3-10, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 4.6 percentage points.

Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 4:00 am. Filed under 2016, Iowa Caucuses, Jeb Bush, Lindsey Graham, Mike Huckabee, Poll Watch, Republican Party

February 5, 2015

News Cycle Flavors Just Beginning

It might be 11 months until the first voting in the opening event of the U.S. 2016 presidential election, but there can be little doubt that the “on” button has been pressed for this highest profile quadrennial contest.

Mitt Romney’s decision not to run again has set a great deal into motion. Jeb Bush, as a result, is now the consensus “frontrunner.”

Following the recent Citizens United unofficial debate in Des Moines, we now also have the first informal “flavor of the news cycle,” Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker. Mr. Walker stole the show among the potential candidates (I personally thought that non-candidate New Gingrich gave the most important speech) with a shirt-sleeved talk that exceeded media expectations. The governor recently won a hard-fought re-election after initiating a series of controversial but much-applauded (by conservatives) executive actions in the Badger State. He is, of course, a very long way from the nomination (and hasn’t even formally announced), but he now clearly merits elevation to the first tier of GOP prospects, joining Jeb Bush and Chris Christie.

But he will not be the last main flavor of the news cycle in 2015. This process has a certain similarity to a team pitching rotation in major league baseball. Each starting hurler gets to pitch every four or five days. In this case, most of the serious GOP hopefuls will do something unusual to obtain media attention, and following that, they will temporarily lead in the polls. This pattern will be repeated routinely, especially after the first formal debates begin in the autumn, and subsequently after each debate — unless, of course, one frontrunning candidate catches on early and the contest becomes more or less moot.

Look for New Jersey Governor, Chris Christie already in the first tier, to become the flavor of the news cycle later, after the debates (in which he will probably shine) begin. If he decides to run, Florida Senator Marco Rubio, also an excellent speaker, could become the flavor of the news cycle after winning an early primary. Kentucky Senator Rand Paul could also reach high flavor if his supporters succeed in placing him upward in an early primary or caucus. Physician Ben Carson is already a conservative favorite, and is already showing strong numbers in early polls. Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee, former Texas Governor Rick Perry and former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum already have been flavors of the news cycle in 2011-12, but it will be difficult for them to repeat this success in 2016 — with the public and the media clamoring, as they always do, for new faces and sensations.

Be also prepared for a surprise flavor of the news cycle after someone now not expected to run gets into the race and steals attention away, at least for a while, from the frontrunners.

Remember Herman Cain?

——————————————————————————————
Copyright (c) 2015 by Barry Casselman. All rights reserved.

February 3, 2015

Huckabee’s Beyoncé Bombast Bombs in Iowa

Iowa is an important state for Mike Huckabee. If he can’t finish first here, or at least as the top SoCon vote-getter, it is hard to imagine how he’d ever recover.

The DMJ’s recent poll asked Iowans what they thought of Mike’s recent shots at Beyoncé and his criticisms of the Obamas for allowing their daughters to listen to her. The results are as follows:

In his recently published book, Mike Huckabee criticized the singer Beyoncé, calling her “mental poison.” Do you think Huckabee is mostly right about Beyoncé, or did he go too far?

Mostly Right Went Too Far Not Sure
Democrats 6 81 13
Republicans 40 38 22

Conducted Jan. 26 – 29. 401 are registered Iowa voters who say they definitely or probably will attend the 2016 Democratic caucuses, and 402 are registered Iowa voters who say they definitely or probably will attend the Republican caucuses. MOE is 4.9%

Well, that wasn’t too bad. It was neither a hit nor a miss with the Republican caucus goers. It was more a wash than anything. However check out what they think of Huckabee criticizing the Obamas’ parenting skills:

Mike Huckabee said the Obamas were guilty of bad parenting for allowing their daughters to listen to her music. Do you think Huckabee is mostly right about the Obamas, or did he go too far?

Mostly Right Went Too Far Not Sure
Democrats 2 95 3
Republicans 23 61 16

Ouch! That certainly didn’t help him. It went over like the proverbial lead balloon. Nearly three times as many Republican caucus goers thought he went too far as compared to those who thought he was mostly right.

Why does this image come to mind?

 

by @ 9:35 am. Filed under Iowa Caucuses, Mike Huckabee

February 2, 2015

Poll Watch: Loras College Iowa 2016 Republican Caucus Survey

Loras College Iowa 2016 GOP Caucus Poll

  • Mike Huckabee 14.4% (14.7%)
  • Jeb Bush 13.1% (10.7%)
  • Ben Carson 12.8%
  • Scott Walker 9.9% (4.7%)
  • Rand Paul 7.0% (8.5%)
  • Chris Christie 5.4% (8.0%)
  • Ted Cruz 5.4% (6.2%)
  • Marco Rubio 4.2% (4.7%)
  • Rick Santorum 3.8% (4.7%)
  • Rick Perry 3.2% (3.0%)
  • Bobby Jindal 1.6%
  • Carly Fiorina 1.3%
  • John Kasich 1.3% (0.7%)
  • Lindsey Graham 0.6%

Survey of 316 likely Iowa GOP caucus-goers was conducted January 21-24, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 5.5 percentage points. Click here to view crosstabs. Results from the poll conducted April 7-8, 2014 are in parentheses.

Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 4:00 am. Filed under 2016, Iowa Caucuses, Mike Huckabee, Poll Watch, Republican Party

January 29, 2015

Poll Watch: Fox Has Mitt On Top

Fox News released their latest poll.

The horse race (394 Republicans):

  • Mitt Romney 21%
  • Mike Huckabee 11%
  • Rand Paul 11%
  • Jeb Bush 10%
  • Ben Carson 9%
  • Scott Walker 8%
  • Marco Rubio 5%
  • Chris Christie 4%
  • Ted Cruz 4%
  • Rick Perry 4%
  • Bobby Jindal 2%
  • John Kasich 1%
  • Rick Santorum 1%
  • Lindsey Graham 1%
  • Don’t Know 5%
  • None 4%
  • Other 1%

The poll was conducted by telephone with live interviewers January 25-27, 2015 among a random national sample of 1,009 registered voters (RV). Results based on the full sample have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus three percentage points.

Head to head versus (Hillary)

  • Romney 46 / (46)
  • Paul 44 / (47)
  • Bush 43 / ( 48)
  • Christie 42 / (48)

 

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