July 31, 2012

VP RUMOR MILL: Romney to Announce VP Aug 10; Major Multi-State Bus Tour Planned for Rollout

Political Ticker reveals some details about an upcoming multi-state bus tour which are being leaked out by the Romney camp — and quotes the source of the leak as saying, “Sounds like VP week…”

On August 11, Romney (and his VP?) will be campaigning in the three largest media markets in Virginia – metro D.C., Richmond, and Norfolk. August 12 takes him through the media markets in North Carolina. August 13 finds him doing a Florida swing through Jacksonville, Orlando, and Miami. And tour dates are being added in Ohio – and potentially other states – for the end of the tour.

It sure sounds like a VP rollout to me, as well, and the timing really makes perfect sense. It gives Mitt and his VP two weeks to campaign together, building momentum up to the RNC on August 27. The Romney campaign, for what it’s worth, have confirmed that the leaked schedule is accurate, but are saying only that Romney will be discussing his vision for the economy during the bus tour.

July 16, 2012

Thune’s Name Floated as Possible V.P.

The Hill has the story:

Thune Rising: GOP senator on Romney veepstakes and his future

Sen. John Thune (R-S.D.) has reemerged as a viable vice presidential candidate who would check many of the boxes Mitt Romney is looking for in a running mate.

He’s an experienced legislator who has earned respect from both parties in Congress, and if he didn’t end up in a Romney cabinet many think he could one day become the Republican leader in the Senate.

In an interview with The Hill, Thune acknowledged he’s been to Boston to meet Romney’s senior advisers and has met Beth Myers, who is leading the search for the vice presidential nominee.

Thune will no longer say whether he is being vetted, a telling distinction from a month ago when he freely admitted to The Hill that no one from Romney’s vetting team had contacted him.

Talk of Thune’s national political ambitions had receded to the point of nearly vanishing until June, when he was invited along with other potential running mates to an exclusive retreat the Romney campaign hosted with its biggest donors in Park City, Utah.

That was the same event, if you recall, that sparked all the recent Condelezza Rice talk. So it’s only fair that Thune gets his moment in the sun, too.

by @ 7:22 am. Filed under Jon Thune, Veep Watch

May 16, 2011

SNL: Republican Ad

Since this video automatically starts, click below to view it.

(more…)

March 17, 2011

POWER RANKINGS: March

As the political March Madness continues, we are seeing the race begin to take shape.

Mitt Romney remains atop the field with another solid month.  Romney caught a big break with Sen. John Thune’s decision to stay out of the race.  Thune was well positioned to be a credible establishment alternative to Romney and his departure leaves one less obstacle in the former governor’s path.  With Thune out, Romney’s chances have only improved.  His odds were also boosted by Justice Roger Vinson’s ruling against President Obama’s healthcare reform law, reinforcing Romney’s argument in defense of his own Massachusetts health legislation.  However, Romney’s chances could be damaged by the emerging organization of Ambassador Jon Huntsman, who could infringe on Romney’s LDS donor base and cut into his New Hampshire strength.

Tim Pawlenty has probably benefited the most from Sen. Thune’s departure from consideration and from Gov. Mitch Daniels’ continued uncertainty.  With them out of the way, Pawlenty is fast becoming the top alternative to Gov. Romney among the establishment while also building a comparable organization.  Gov. Pawlenty has also seen his outreach to the Tea Party begin to pay off as his numbers among their ranks steadily improve.  Pawlenty’s positioning as a compromise candidate to unite diverging factions will continue to improve, and will skyrocket if Gov. Daniels decides to pass on the race.  His recent staff additions continue to show his strength, even if the very early polling hasn’t caught up.

Mike Huckabee continues to produce solid poll numbers, but little else.  Most non-partisan polls continue to show Gov. Huckabee locked into ties with Mitt Romney, Sarah Palin or both. His recent book tour was relatively unimpressive when compared to those of Palin, Romney, and even Pawlenty.  The tour was largely overshadowed by a series of gaffes that dominated the headlines. For a candidate with the second highest name recognition (only Palin rates higher), his organization and fundraising remain alarmingly poor.  Huckabee’s position has also been hurt by several key staffers joining the organizations of his potential rivals.  Adding to his burden are the campaigns of two powerhouse GOP southerners, former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich and Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour.  Both men have the means and the money to cut significantly into Huckabee’s southern base, as well as the establishments of Iowa and South Carolina.  Gingrich and Barbour will join Tim Pawlenty and Rick Santorum, who have been working hard cultivating the supporters Huckabee depends on, as well as the emerging Michele Bachmann effort, which is showing surprising early strength.  The best news for Gov. Huckabee is that few candidates are moving towards announcements anytime soon.  The longer the start of the campaign is delayed, the longer it will help him to recover from these disadvantages.

Sarah Palin has seen her nosedive in the polls continue, and more and more Republicans are showing the willingness to criticize her chances openly.  It was originally thought that a late start would work for Palin due to her rockstar status, but her diminishing numbers have to be a major concern.  The longer she waits, the more cemented those views of her become.  It seems now more then ever that she will pass on a run, and perhaps the increased interest from Rep. Bachmann is an indication that Palin has already decided to pass on the race. However, Palin will be heading to both India and Israel, signs that she may still be serious about a run.

Former Speaker Newt Gingrich announced that he will begin exploring a candidacy for president, but the botched roll-out has already raised some flags about Gingrich’s undisciplined past.  Former Sen. Rick Santorum continues to build a surprisingly strong staff while maintaining the busiest early state schedule in the field.  Rep. Ron Paul continues to hint towards a run on the heels of his big PAC and 501(c)4 haul.  Horizon PAC, the campaign-in-waiting of Jon Huntsman, has brought on members of John McCain’s New Hampshire team. High level GOP operatives in New Hampshire have said that Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels has been making calls to potential supporters in the state. Billionaire real-estate developer Donald Trump seems to be seriously looking at a run, something he’s contemplated a few times before, though some believe it to be nothing more than a publicity stunt.  Former Louisiana Gov. Buddy Roemer formed an exploratory committee to run for president and appears to be basing his campaign around campaign finance reform.

On to the rankings:

  1. Mitt Romney
  2. Tim Pawlenty
  3. Mike Huckabee
  4. Newt Gingrich
  5. Sarah Palin
  6. Haley Barbour
  7. Mitch Daniels
  8. Michele Bachmann
  9. Jon Huntsman Jr.
  10. Rick Santorum

Honorable Mention: Ron Paul, Rudy Giuliani, Herman Cain, Donald Trump, Gary Johnson, John Bolton, Buddy Roemer

March 7, 2011

Whom do Pacific Northwest GOP Activists like? Mitch Daniels

The state Republican parties of Oregon and Washington state have had their annual meetings. During that time, they followed the time-honored tradition of holding a Presidential Straw Poll among the party’s most active activists. As the Oregonian Magazine says, “Straw polls of party activists usually have little impact on the presidential nominating process, but they do offer a sense of who is exciting interest among those likely to get involved in campaigns.” So take the results with a grain of salt.

Here they are:

(Oregon 3-6)
Daniels 29%
Romney 23%
Palin 18%
Huckabee 10%
Gingrich 6%
Paul 5%
Pawlenty 4%
Barbour 3%
Trump 2%
Obama 0%
(Washington 1/31)
Daniels 31%
Romney 14%
Pawlenty 13%
Christie 9%
Thune 8%
Jindal 5%
Ryan 3%
Gingrich 3%
DeMint 3%
Palin 3%
Barbour 2%
Huckabee 2%
Pence 1%
Huntsman 1%
Bachmann 1%
Paul 1%

 

March 4, 2011

Poll Analysis: PPP’s 2012 GOP Hopefuls

It’s time for another installment in our series. Last week’s report was skipped due to PPP only releasing one poll all week. We now have enough new data to make a worthwhile report.

First the Horse race table:

(Horse Race) Del Barbour Daniels Gringrich Huckabee Palin Paul Pawlenty Romney Other/Und
IA (1/11) 28 1 13 30 15 6 4 18 10
NV (1/10) 28 1 18 14 19 7 1 31 8
PA (1/10) 72 2 15 26 21 5 6 16 9
TX (1/19) 152 3 17 25 21 9 5 10 8
NJ (1/25) 50 3 15 18 14 8 4 18 19
xNC (1/28) 55 3 18 27 16 6 7 11 10
WV (1/28) 31 2 17 28 23 6 5 10 8
SC (2/1) 50 3 13 26 18 7 4 20 8
NE (2/3) 35 1 18 21 19 8 4 15 12
AZ (2/4) 57 2 15 19 15 5 4 23 16
SD (2/4) 28 1 10 11 12 5 2 12 10
CA (2/7) 172 2 18 15 16 10 3 22 12
NM (2/10) 23 3 15 18 22 6 7 16 12
CO (2/11) 36 3 12 16 16 9 7 19 16
TN (2/16) 58 3 11 31 17 10 3 11 14
NC (2/28) 55 2 18 24 16 6 5 18 11
RI (3/2) 19 4 13 15 10 5 5 39 9
VA (3/3) 49 4 7 14 20 16 8 4 16 11
Weighted Ave 2.6 15.5 21.3 17.5 7.8 4.2 17.4 11.3

Notes:

  • The 1/28 North Carolina entry is now obsolete. It has been superseded by the 2/28 poll.
  • Thune has announced that he is not running, so his data has been removed.  Apparently PPP has substituted Haley Barbour for Senator Thune.
  • No Weighted Average has been computed for Barbour. There are too few data points. When we have at least four, I will include it.

Here is the table of the movement in the Weighted Average:

(Weighted Ave) Barbour Daniels Gringrich Huckabee Palin Paul Pawlenty Romney Other/Und
(2/5/11) 2.4 16.0 23.8 18.6 7.0 4.7 15.6 10.5
(2/12/11 2.2 16.2 21.3 17.8 7.6 4.2 16.9 10.8
(2/19/11) 2.3 15.7 21.7 17.7 7.8 4.3 16.6 11.3
(3/05/11) 2.6 15.5 21.3 17.5 7.8 4.2 17.4 11.3

Note that I have shifted to 1/10th accuracy. Rounding to the nearest point hid the movement too much.

Here is the above data in graphical form for those in double digits:

Everyone has dropped except Romney, both since the last data point and since last month.


Now for the vs. Obama numbers. Here are the numbers in tabular form:

(vs. Obama) EV Gingrich Huckabee Palin Romney
PA (1/6) 20 -10 -3 -15 -4
NV (1/7) 6 -11 -10 -13 -1
NJ (1/11) 14 -17 -17 -30 -15
IA (1/12) 6 -13 -4 -16 -6
TX (1/20) 38 5 16 1 7
xNC (1/25) 15 -6 -4 -9 -3
WV (1/27) 5 10 18 4 13
NE (1/31) 5 8 13 1 12
SD (2/1) 3 -2 6 -8 6
SC (2/2) 9 -1 6 -6 7
AZ (2/2) 11 0 4 -8 6
CA (2/3) 55 -23 -15 -31 -20
CO (2/8) 9 -14 -9 -19 -6
NM (2/9) 5 -21 -19 -29 -16
TN (2/17) 11 3 12 0 7
NC (2/23) 15 -4 1 -10 -3
RI (2/28) 4 -33 -25 -41 -17
VA (3/2) 13 -12 -8 -19 -6
WI (3/3) 10 -12 -7 -19 -10
Weighted Ave. -9.2 -2.6 -15.4 -5.1

Again, note the exclusion of the obsolete 1/25 poll of North Carolina.

Here is the history of the Weighted Average is tabular form.

Gingrich Huckabee Palin Romney
(2/5/11) -3.1 3.3 -8.6 1.2
(2/12/11) -9.5 -2.8 -15.7 -5.3
(2/19/11) -8.6 -2.0 -14.5 -4.6
(2/26/11) -8.5 -1.6 -14.6 -4.6
(3/4/11) -9.2 -2.6 -15.4 -5.1

And here is the above data in Graphical form:


Not much relative movement between the hopefuls.  Any difference is really more statistical noise than anything else.


And finally, here is the latest Electoral Vote data:

(EV) Gingrich Huckabee Palin Romney
PA (1/6) -20 -20 -20 -20
NV (1/7) -6 -6 -6 -6
NJ (1/11) -14 -14 -14 -14
IA (1/12) -6 -6 -6 -6
TX (1/20) 38 38 38 38
xNC (1/25) -15 -15 -15 -15
WV (1/27) 5 5 5 5
NE (1/31) 5 5 5 5
SD (2/1) -3 3 -3 3
SC (2/2) -9 9 -9 9
AZ (2/2) -11 11 -11 11
CA (2/3) -55 -55 -55 -55
CO (2/8) -9 -9 -9 -9
NM (2/9) -5 -5 -5 -5
TN (2/17) 11 11 -11 11
NC (2/23) -15 15 -15 -15
RI (2/28) -4 -4 -4 -4
VA (3/2) -13 -13 -13 -13
WI (3/3) -10 -10 -10 -10
Total Margin -121 -45 -143 -75

As can be seen, Huckabee starts with nearly a triple digit lead over Palin.

February 22, 2011

BREAKING: Thune will NOT run in 2012

Thune’s not running, per a prepared statement released today. Here’s the text of the statement

For months now, my wife Kimberley and I have received encouragement from family, friends, colleagues, and supporters from across South Dakota and the country to run for the presidency of the United States. We have appreciated hearing their concerns about where the country is headed and their hopes for a new direction.During this time, Kimberley and I and our two daughters have given a great deal of thought to how we might best serve South Dakota and our nation. That process has involved lots of prayer.

Along the way, we have been reminded of the importance of being in the arena, of being in the fight. And make no mistake that during this period of fiscal crisis and economic uncertainty there is a fight for the future direction of America. There is a battle to be waged over what kind of country we are going to leave our children and grandchildren and that battle is happening now in Washington, not two years from now. So at this time, I feel that I am best positioned to fight for America’s future here in the trenches of the United States Senate.

I want to thank those who have encouraged us and prayed for us during the past several months. We are forever grateful for all the support.

John and Kimberley

by @ 12:13 pm. Filed under Jon Thune

February 19, 2011

Poll Analysis: National Monthly PPP Poll (February)

PPP conducts a national poll every month. They determine the status of the horse race between the key GOP 2012 hopefuls, and they query their individual strengths against Obama.

First the Horse Race data:

(Horse Race) (1/11) (2/15)
Daniels 4 4
Gingrich 11 12
Huckabee 14 20
Palin 12 15
Paul 7 8
Pawlenty 7 4
Romney 11 17
Thune 1 1
Other/Undec 33 18

“Other/Undec” dropped 15 pts.  That allowed most of the hopefuls to pick up points.  Gingrich, Huckabee, Palin, Paul, and Romney all went up.  Daniels and Thune remained the same.  Only one — Pawlenty — lost ground.  In a near universal rising tide, he managed to lose nearly half his support.  He dropped from 7 to 4 pts.

Here is the data in graphical form.  It is limited to only those hopefuls in double digits to avoid clutter:

As mentioned above, all four improved their positions last month.  Huckabee is still on top, but Romney vaulted from a third place tie to second place.  Palin dropped to third, and Gingrich is left back in the fourth position.

Now on to the vs. Obama numbers:

(vs. Obama) Huckabee Palin Gingrich Romney
(1/11) -5 -17 -12 -5
(2/16) -3 -12 -9 -5

Here is the trend line graphic:
?

All hopefuls improved against Obama except Romney. Of the three that improved, Palin did the best.  She gained on Obama by 5 pts.  That bests Gingrich’s three point gain and Huckabee’s two point gain. As mentioned, Romney remained flat.

We continue to see the double grouping of the top tier in this data.  This pattern stretches back for well over a year.  Huckabee and Romney continue to trade places with each other as #1 and #2.  Huckabee has been on top more times than Romney.  Gingrich and Palin continue to battle it out for #3 and #4 with Palin in her usual position of dead last.

Poll Analysis: The States (2/19)

First the Horse Race numbers:

(Horse Race) Del Daniels Gringrich Huckabee Palin Paul Pawlenty Romney Thune Other/Und
IA (1/11) 28 1 13 30 15 6 4 18 3 10
NV (1/10) 28 1 18 14 19 7 1 31 1 8
PA (1/10) 72 2 15 26 21 5 6 16 9
TX (1/19) 152 3 17 25 21 9 5 10 8
NJ (1/25) 50 3 15 18 14 8 4 18 2 19
NC (1/28) 55 3 18 27 16 6 7 11 1 10
WV (1/28) 31 2 17 28 23 6 5 10 0 8
SC (2/1) 50 3 13 26 18 7 4 20 8
NE (2/3) 35 1 18 21 19 8 4 15 3 12
AZ (2/4) 57 2 15 19 15 5 4 23 1 16
SD (2/4) 28 1 10 11 12 5 2 12 37 10
CA (2/7) 172 2 18 15 16 10 3 22 1 12
NM (2/10) 23 3 15 18 22 6 7 16 12
CO (2/11) 36 3 12 16 16 9 7 19 4 16
TN (2/16) 58 3 11 31 17 10 3 11 1 14
Weighted Ave 2 16 22 18 8 4 17 2 11

Now the weighted average trend graph:


Not much happening there.


Now for the vs. Obama numbers:

(vs. Obama) EV Gingrich Huckabee Palin Romney
PA (1/6) 20 -10 -3 -15 -4
NV (1/7) 6 -11 -10 -13 -1
NJ (1/11) 14 -17 -17 -30 -15
IA (1/12) 6 -13 -4 -16 -6
TX (1/20) 38 5 16 1 7
NC (1/25) 15 -6 -4 -9 -3
WV (1/27) 5 10 18 4 13
NE (1/31) 5 8 13 1 12
SD (2/1) 3 -2 6 -8 6
SC (2/2) 9 -1 6 -6 7
AZ (2/2) 11 0 4 -8 6
CA (2/3) 55 -23 -15 -31 -20
CO (2/8) 9 -14 -9 -19 -6
NM (2/9) 5 -21 -19 -29 -16
TN (2/17) 11 3 12 0 7
Weighted Ave. -9 -2 -15 -5

And the weighted average tread graph:

All of our hopefuls gained last week.  Beyond that, little changed in their relative positions. Huckabee is still on top and Palin is still on the bottom.


Here is a new feature — The Electoral Vote Tally.  As you know, the electoral votes of a state are awarded winner-take-all.  It doesn’t matter if someone wins a state by one vote, or one million.  They still get all of that state’s electoral votes.

So using the data from the last table, here is how the electoral voting stands now:

(EV) Gingrich Huckabee Palin Romney
(2/19/11) -94 -48 -116 -48

And in graphical form:

Once again, we see where all of our hopefuls are underwater vs. Obama.  Huckabee and Romney do the best while Gingrich and Palin lag behind.  Palin is the furtherest back.

February 16, 2011

PPP Poll Watch: Tennessee Horse Race. Huckabee Takes The Volunteer State

PPP has just released their Horse Race poll for Tennessee:

Daniels 3
Gingrich 11
Huckabee 31
Palin 17
Paul 10
Pawlenty 3
Romney 11
Thune 1
Other/Undec 14

Huckabee takes it, hands down.  The closest one to him is Palin, 14 points back.  Then comes Daniels and Romney at 20 points back, only one point ahead of Ron Paul.

*** Edited a math error.  Had Palin at only 12 points back. ***

February 15, 2011

PPP Poll Watch: Romney Wins Colorado Horse Race

PPP has released their Colorado horse race numbers.

Daniels 3
Gingrich 12
Huckabee 16
Palin 16
Paul 9
Pawlenty 7
Romney 19
Thune 4
Other/Unded 16

PPP surveyed 400 usual Colorado Republican primary voters from February 4th to 6th.  The survey’s margin of error is +/-4.9%.

Once again it is Gingrich, Huckabee, Palin, and Romney in the top four.

February 14, 2011

Thune Out, or Honestly Undecided?

While other big name competitors for the GOP presidential nomination pretend not to know whether or not they’re running, there may be one potential candidate who truly is undecided: South Dakota Senator John Thune.

Thune has been amazingly coy about telegraphing any sort of intentions for the 2012 race. He has not visited Iowa, New Hampshire, or South Carolina yet, turning down invitations to appear at events in all three states. And he has not been in contact with any major donors or big-name folks in the GOP.

Those things lead FOXNews’ Carl Cameron to believe Thune is not running.

There is another explanation: Thune may be honestly undecided about a run. In this interview with the Des Moines Register, he certainly sounds like it (and sounds a lot more sincere than other candidates who say they haven’t made a decision yet):

South Dakota Sen. John Thune said Friday he has deliberately stayed away from Iowa to discourage speculation that he had decided to run for president, and that he would have catching up to do in his neighboring state should he decide to seek the 2012 Republican nomination.

But this rising leader in the Senate GOP, famous for taking down former Majority Leader Tom Daschle, also said there are important policy fights ahead to keep him busy, should he decide not to run.

Thune said he expects to decide before the end of February whether to run in 2012. But some recent developments send mixed signals.

“We’ve had invitations to go into Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina,” Thune said in a Des Moines Register interview in his Capitol Hill office. “But I didn’t want to get into the early states until I meant business. And we have not ventured there until we come to a conclusion about whether or not I will be in this race.”

“If we decide to do this, we’re going to be spending a lot of time in Iowa,” he said.

In the end, it may be the indecision that kills Thune’s shot at the big seat, but he does seem to be getting quite a bit of attention as a potential #2:

“I think it’s less than 50-50 that he runs. But I do think he makes a great vice presidential candidate.” –Ann Trimble-Ray, Sac County IA GOP vice chairwoman

“He just turned 50 in January, an age that’s perfect for a running mate and still leaves plenty of time to run again in the future.” – Carl Cameron, FOXNews

by @ 10:13 am. Filed under Jon Thune, Veep Watch

February 12, 2011

Paul, Romney, Johnson Top the 2011 CPAC Straw Poll

2011 CPAC Straw Poll results are in:

1. Ron Paul 30%
2. Mitt Romney 23%
3. Gary Johnson 6%
4. Chris Christie 6%
5. Newt Gingrich 5%
6. Tim Pawlenty 4%
7. Michelle Bachmann 4%
8. Mitch Daniels 4%
9. Sarah Palin 3%
10. Herman Cain 2%
11. Mike Huckabee 2%
12. Rick Santorum 2%
13. John Thune 2%
14. Jon Huntsman, Jr. 1%
15. Haley Barbour 1%
16. Donald Trump >1% (write-in)

Click here to see the full results.

Poll Analysis: 2011 YTD Compilation of PPP States Data

Not much happened this week with the vs. Obama numbers other than the numbers from California drove all of our hopefuls underwater.  Beyond that, little changed in the relative positioning of the big four.

(vs. Obama) EV Gingrich Huckabee Palin Romney
PA (1/6) 20 -10 -3 -15 -4
NV (1/7) 6 -11 -10 -13 -1
NJ (1/11) 14 -17 -17 -30 -15
IA (1/12) 6 -13 -4 -16 -6
TX (1/20) 38 5 16 1 7
NC (1/25) 15 -6 -4 -9 -3
WV (1/27) 5 10 18 4 13
NE (1/31) 5 8 13 1 12
SD (2/1) 3 -2 6 -8 6
SC (2/2) 9 -1 6 -6 7
AZ (2/2) 11 0 4 -8 6
CA (2/3) 55 -23 -15 -31 -20
CO (2/8) 9 -14 -9 -19 -6
NM (2/9) 5 -21 -19 -29 -16
Weighted Ave. -9.5 -2.8 -15.7 -5.3

Here is the change from last week in graphical form:

As mentioned, our hopefuls are now all underwater, but their relative position with each other didn’t change that much from last week.  Huckabee, Gingrich, and Romney each dropped six points.  Palin dropped seven.

The Horse Race data is far more interesting:

(Horse Race) Del Daniels Gringrich Huckabee Palin Paul Pawlenty Romney Thune Other/Und
IA (1/11) 28 1 13 30 15 6 4 18 3 10
NV (1/10) 28 1 18 14 19 7 1 31 1 8
PA (1/10) 72 2 15 26 21 5 6 16 9
TX (1/19) 152 3 17 25 21 9 5 10 8
NJ (1/25) 50 3 15 18 14 8 4 18 2 19
NC (1/28) 55 3 18 27 16 6 7 11 1 10
WV (1/28) 31 2 17 28 23 6 5 10 0 8
SC (2/1) 50 3 13 26 18 7 4 20 8
NE (2/3) 35 1 18 21 19 8 4 15 3 12
AZ (2/4) 57 2 15 19 15 5 4 23 1 16
SD (2/4) 28 1 10 11 12 5 2 12 37 10
CA (2/7) 172 2 18 15 16 10 3 22 1 12
Weighted Ave 2 16 21 18 8 4 17 3 11

And here is the weekly change for the top four people in graphical form:

Huckabee dropped the most (nearly three points).  Romney rose the the most (about a point and a half).  Palin dropped about point.  Gingrich rose less than a quarter of a point.

February 10, 2011

Poll Watch: PPP California Horse Race

Here is the data from the latest PPP California 2012 Hopefuls Race:

Horse Race Fav Unfav Diff
Daniels 2
Gingrich 18 56 23 33
Huckabee 15 61 21 40
Palin 16 63 27 36
Paul 10
Pawlenty 3
Romney 22 59 22 37
Thune 1
Other/Undec 12

This illustrates well why I seldom pay much attention to the Favorable/Unfavorable metric.  People vote for the people they think will do the job, not necessarily whom they like the most.  Certainly there is a correlation, but it is an indirect one at best.

February 8, 2011

CPAC 2011 Straw Poll List

For those interested, here’s the official list of who’s going to be on the straw poll ballot at CPAC 2011:

Rep. Michele Bachmann
Gov. Haley Barbour
Mr. Herman Cain
Gov. Chris Christie
Gov. Mitch Daniels
Former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich
Former Gov Mike Huckabee
Ambassador / Former Gov Jon Huntsman
Former Gov Gary Johnson
Former Gov Sarah Palin
Representative Ron Paul
Former Gov Tim Pawlenty
Former Gov Mitt Romney
Former Senator Rick Santorum
Senator John Thune

What’s also interesting about this list are the two names who are not on the list: Senator Jim DeMint and former Governor Jeb Bush.
_______________________________________________________

-Matt Newman is a conservative blogger from Maryland who blogs at Old Line Elephant and Tweets far too often.

February 5, 2011

Poll Analysis: The Horse Race (02/05/11)

A number of people have asked me why I have not been posting the more detailed polling analysis that I used to do on a regular basis.  There were several reasons:

  1. I felt it was too soon after the midterms.
  2. It was “the crazy time”.  I wanted to wait for things to settle somewhat before resuming.
  3. I wanted to wait until the new year to make a clean break with the past.
  4. I wanted to wait until we had a reasonable sampling before doing any analysis.

I feel the time is right to begin them again.  So here is my first horse race analysis.

Oh, one more thing.  As before, I am relying strictly upon Public Policy Polling (PPP) for my data.  I have always found that they are a perfectly reputable polling firm, one of the best. Certainly, they have their biases.  All polling firms do.  The important thing is by taking data only from one source, any biases that there might be should be consistent from poll to poll. Any trends that show up will be for real.  And at this stage of the game, trends are far more important than any one data point.

So, here is the history of PPP’s Horse Race polls so far this year:

(Horse Race) Del Daniels Gringrich Huckabee Palin Paul Pawlenty Romney Thune Other/Und
IA (1/11) 28 1 13 30 15 6 4 18 3 10
NV (1/10) 28 1 18 14 19 7 1 31 1 8
TX (1/19) 152 3 17 25 21 9 5 10 8
NJ (1/25) 50 3 15 18 14 8 4 18 2 19
NC (1/28) 55 3 18 27 16 6 7 11 1 10
WV (1/28) 31 2 17 28 23 6 5 10 0 8
SC (2/1) 50 3 13 26 18 7 4 20 8
NE (2/3) 35 1 18 21 19 8 4 15 3 12
AZ (2/4) 57 2 15 19 15 5 4 23 1 16
Weighted Ave 2.4 16.2 23.5 18.2 7.3 4.5 15.5 1.5 10.7

The second column is the number of delegates that each state will send to the 2012 Republican convention. It is used to weigh the weighted average.

Here is the graph:

So far, it isn’t much.  It only shows one week.  But as a new data point in added each week, we should be able to readily spot any trends that might arise.

Oh, one more thing.  I plan on making the weighted average a moving average of two months.  In that way, data more than two months old will be eliminated.  Only data that is reasonably current will be affecting the analysis.

Analysis:

  • Huckabee is ahead followed by Palin, Gringrich, and Romney.
  • Only eight points separate Huckabee from Romney.
  • The lead may well be an artifact of PPP polling mainly Huckabee friendly territory. Over time as more and more states are polled, this may narrow.  Only time will tell.
  • Palin, in spite of what most people are saying, is still in the thick of things.  At least, that is, for the states PPP has polled.

February 4, 2011

National Journal’s 2012 Presidential Power Rankings

National Journal has come out with their latest Power Rankings for the 2012 GOP Presidential Race.  They graded each hopeful on four items:

  • Money: How much do they have? How much can they raise?
  • Campaign infrastructure: Do they have the ability to assemble a competitive and competent staff, both at the national and state levels?
  • Strengths: What issue(s) can the candidate truly hang their hat on? Is there a specific area of expertise they can sell to voters? Do they have a strong track record on one particular issue?
  • Weaknesses: Every candidate has one — heck, most candidates have plenty — and the reality is that eventually they will have to address them. This will be easier for some contenders than others: Explaining away one vote for bad legislation is far easier than justifying a major moral lapse or some fatally flawed executive decision. At the end of the day, some candidates will have weaknesses, and others will have albatrosses. It’s the latter group who should be worried.

The results are as follows:


Last Ranking Change
1 Mitt Romney 1 0
2 Tim Pawlenty 2 0
3 Mike Huckabee 5 2
4 John Thune 3 -1
5 Mitch Daniels 9 4
6 Haley Barbour 4 -2
7 Newt Gingrich 7 0
8 Sarah Palin 6 -2
9 Jon Huntsman new N/A
10 Rick Santorum 13 3
11 Jim DeMint 14 3
12 Michele Bachmann new N/A
13 Ron Paul 15 2
14 Herman Cain new N/A
15 Rudy Giuliani new N/A

A few items are worth noting:

  • Romney is on top in spite of recent polling being less than ideal.  Their comments on Mitt: “Romney remains the front-runner largely because no one has challenged him head-on. In fact, he’s barely been heard from in the last few months, save for a few newspaper op-eds.” Romney’s less-is-more strategy appears to be working.  He certainly seems to be enjoying the less amount pressure this time around and appears in no hurry to announce.
  • Huntsman starts out in the top ten, which is appropriate for the amount of buzz he has been generating as of late.
  • Sarah Palin continues to sink lower and lower.   There is still a lot of time left, but the clock is ticking.
  • I’m not sure I would place Pawlenty at #2, but he is working the hardest of any candidate as of right now.  In my experience, that usually means more than just about anything else you can name.
  • Their comments on Huckabee are revealing:  “If Huckabee runs, he can win Iowa, compete in South Carolina, and put together a coalition of social conservatives that no one else can match. But he’s not showing a lot of leg. We hear from activists on the ground that Huckabee has no presence in early-primary states, a troubling sign when even Sarah Palin is trolling for support.” That is pretty much how I see things for Mike at this point in time, as well.

So this is how the field appears one year from the first race, the Iowa Caucus.   There is still plenty of time for someone obscure to catch fire, for some to consolidate their present leads, for others to turn things around, and for still others currently enjoying the limelight to slowly but surely fade away.

It’s going to be an interesting, highly entertaining year.

January 28, 2011

When Will The GOP Candidates Announce for 2012?

This didn’t get posted on R4’12 when I originally posted it on CaffeinatedThoughts. But since two of my predictions came true (Pence not running, Thune expected to announce at end of February), I thought I’d post the rest here now.
__________________________________________________________________

Photo Sharing and Video Hosting at Photobucket I am not a prophet nor do I play one on television.

Nevertheless, here is my take on possible announcement dates by the candidates most likely to run for President in 2012. All of them would be wise to get in by the time the Reagan Library debate in May, 2011 is held.

Tim Pawlenty:  Expected in Iowa to close his book tour the last two days of January.  Perhaps while he is still in Iowa on February 1st, he will make his plans known (or make a short trip back home to tell us from his home in Minnesota).  I think he is definitely in and getting in first, often, and early will allow him the press coverage that other candidates won’t get.  The press will pace around him Iowa the next few months like a cat waiting feeding time.  Like Mike Huckabee at this time four years ago, he is probably not well known in Iowa or around the country.   That means a free ride unless he picks up steam, then out will come the sharks prepared to eat him up if he has any scandals, terrible votes, foolish statements or bad hair days.

Rick Santorum:   Another candidate who needs to get in early, but who has better name recognition.  He has made many trips to Iowa already and as a longtime social conservative may be the best candidate to challenge Palin and Huckabee among those voters if they run.  Santorum will have to give better reasons for endorsing Arlen Specter over Pat Toomey in 2004 than he has to date.  His answer to this point is revealing – it was a tactical, political move.  He can hardly argue that his pragmatic decision helped his causes as Specter continued to vote frequently with the Democrats and eventually joined them.  Maybe Santorum will announce near Valentine’s Day.

John Thune:  One more candidate likely to get in earlier rather than later, if he decides to run. He is not a sure thing like Santorum and Pawlenty are.  (I should disclose here, my first donation ever to an out of state politician was when Thune ran against Tom Daschle.  And no I didn’t give money to Daschle). Thune voted for TARP in 2007 which could be a problem for him.  Complaints, however, won’t come from the mouths of Palin and Romney who both supported John McCain’s vote for it. I hold to the view McCain’s one vote in favor of TARP may have cost him the election (and not his GOP-inspiring pick of Palin).  By late February, Thune might be in.

Mitt Romney: He’s in, unless his poll numbers plummet.  He may jump in anyway. I predict that he will take a great risk and forego serious campaigning in Iowa. I predict he will also move to the center on social issues or minimize them at the very least. He probably won’t announce until late April, right before the Reagan Library debate. Questions linger about his implementation of Romneycare and its relation to Obamacare.

Mike Huckabee: Whether he will run or not is still an unknown. I doubt his Fox News gig is the most important factor. It may be depend on whether there is a conservative running he trusts, such as Michelle Bachmann or Jim Demint. With name recognition he does not need to get in early. He will certainly have to shore up support among fiscal conservatives and figure out how to raise more money than he did in 2008.

Sarah Palin: Like Huckabee, it is not clear whether she will run or not. And if she does not run, will she endorse somebody or not? (It won’t be Huckabee, but might be Romney or Daniels). She can also get in very late and possibly even last, with a strong following and immediate access to the press. She may wait to see who else gets in and how her numbers are at that point.

Michelle Bachmann: Threw her potential bonnet in the ring this week. Immediately well-received by those on the right. It is tough for a member of congress to get traction, but she could do it, and she has as much relevant experience as others in the field. Look for her to announce by Mid-February, if she is in. She is a Tea-Party favorite.

Newt Gingrich: I predict he will not run. He is a perennial teaser, with too much personal baggage. He must announce very early (no later than the end of February) and virtually live in Iowa to even have a shot.

Mitch Daniels: Will not run unless both Huckabee and Palin choose not to run.

Mike Pence: Won’t run unless he can get either a Romney, Huckabee or Palin endorsement.

Haley Barbour: Won’t run unless Romney drops out. He could enter late, if Romney drops out. He would be an immediate favorite of the talk show and money crowd in the GOP.

Ron Paul: Will not run or will be ignored by the other candidates if he does; unless he decides to endorse somebody, then suddenly he will be all that and a bag of chips. Gary Johnson may get in, if Paul decides not to run.

Herman Cain: Will provide lots of entertainment. Will enter on Groundhog Day.

Others Not Running: Marco Rubio, Jeb Bush, Bobby Jindal, Chris Christie, and Rudy Giuliani (if America’s Mayor does enter, it will be on April Fool’s Day).

Other candidates I wish would consider running: Steve King (at least run for Senate, Steve!), Jim Demint, and J C Watts.

January 21, 2011

Is John Thune Already Polling in South Carolina?

I received this interesting tip via Facebook:

A phone poll is being done in SC, even though they don’t say its for Thune, the questions leave no doubt.

…I received an automated phone call a few days ago. It focuses just on the general not primary election. The first question is something like “If John Thune was the Republican nominee would you vote for him against President Obama?” other questions included “do you favor a repeal of Obamacare?” “do you consider yourself a supporter of the tea party?” I can’t remember much else because I was doing something else when I got the call. I can’t remember the name of the firm.

Stay tuned….

by @ 1:53 pm. Filed under Jon Thune, Rumor Mill

Sen. John Thune Gearing Up for 2012?

Apparently, calls are being made on his behalf by a top-fundraiser on his behalf in the Granite State:

WASHINGTON – One of Sen. John Thune’s top fundraisers quietly has been making calls in New Hampshire on Thune’s behalf, a further sign that the South Dakota Republican is nearing a decision on whether to run for president.

Gregory Slayton, the former U.S. ambassador to the Bahamas, runs a private investment firm and is a professor of business administration at New Hampshire’s Dartmouth College. Slayton was Thune’s Northern California finance director when Thune ran unsuccessfully for Senate in 2002 and when Thune defeated former Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle two years later.

New Hampshire will hold the first presidential primary, probably in February 2012, days after Iowa’s caucuses are expected to launch the campaign season. Those two states and South Carolina have culled the GOP field in presidential primaries since the 1980s.

In separate interviews Thursday, Thune and Slayton acknowledged that they had discussions about Thune’s possible candidacy, and each hinted that a decision might come soon.

Be sure to read the rest here.

by @ 11:08 am. Filed under Jon Thune

January 11, 2011

Townhall.com’s January Straw Poll

Townhall.com has a Presidential preference straw poll for its readers. You can vote here. Here are the candidates:

  • Former Governor Sarah Palin
  • Former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich
  • Governor Haley Barbour
  • Former Governor Mitt Romney
  • Governor Tim Pawlenty
  • Former Governor Mike Huckabee
  • US Senator Jim DeMint
  • Representative Ron Paul
  • Former US Senator Rick Santorum
  • Governor Mitch Daniels
  • Former UN Ambassador John Bolton
  • US Senator John Thune
  • Radio Talk Show Host Herman Cain
  • Governor Chris Christie
  • Former Governor Gary Johnson
  • Other

Who’s your favorite? Consider this an open thread to discuss who you’re liking this early in the campaign cycle.

December 27, 2010

Poll Watch: PPP (D) North Carolina 2012 GOP Primary

PPP (D) North Carolina 2012 GOP Primary

  • Newt Gingrich 21% [17%] (23%)
  • Sarah Palin 21% [21%] (19%) {30%} [27%] (27%)
  • Mitt Romney 18% [10%] (14%) {27%} [25%] (25%)
  • Mike Huckabee 18% [25%] (19%) {30%} [30%] (33%)
  • Ron Paul 7% [7%]
  • Tim Pawlenty 3% [4%] (4%)
  • John Thune 1% [2%] (0%)
  • Mitch Daniels 1% [1%] (2%)
  • Someone else/Undecided 12% [12%] (16%)

Among Conservatives

  • Sarah Palin 24% [20%] (19%)
  • Newt Gingrich 22% [19%] (25%)
  • Mike Huckabee 19% [26%] (22%)
  • Mitt Romney 14% [10%] (10%)
  • Ron Paul 6% [7%]
  • Tim Pawlenty 3% [5%] (4%)
  • John Thune 1% [1%] (0%)
  • Mitch Daniels 0% [1%] (3%)
  • Someone else/Undecided 10% [12%] (15%)

Among Moderates

  • Mitt Romney 30% [12%] (31%)
  • Newt Gingrich 15% [12%] (17%)
  • Mike Huckabee 15% [24%] (14%)
  • Sarah Palin 13% [27%] (19%)
  • Ron Paul 8% [7%]
  • Tim Pawlenty 3% [1%] (2%)
  • Mitch Daniels 1% [1%] (0%)
  • John Thune 0% [3%] (0%)
  • Someone else/Undecided 15% [14%] (15%)

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

  • Mike Huckabee 71% [71%] / 16% [13%] {+55%}
  • Sarah Palin 67% [65%] / 25% [20%] {+42%}
  • Newt Gingrich 61% [63%] / 21% [21%] {+40%}
  • Mitt Romney 57% [49%] / 22% [23%] {+35%}

Among Conservatives

  • Mike Huckabee 79% [76%] / 9% [9%] {+70%}
  • Sarah Palin 77% [72%] / 17% [13%] {+60%}
  • Newt Gingrich 69% [72%] / 13% [13%] {+56%}
  • Mitt Romney 58% [53%] / 23% [21%] {+35%}

Among Moderates

  • Mitt Romney 54% [42%] / 22% [25%] {+32%}
  • Mike Huckabee 50% [60%] / 34% [21%] {+16%}
  • Newt Gingrich 40% [40%] / 41% [38%] {-1%}
  • Sarah Palin 42% [51%] / 47% [36%] {-5%}

Survey of 400 Republican primary voters was conducted December 17-19, 2010.  The margin of error is +/- 4.9 percentage points.  Political ideology: 71% [72%] Conservative; 27% [24%] Moderate; 2% [3%] Liberal.  Results from the poll conducted November 19-21, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted October 30-31, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted April 8-11, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 12-15, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 12-15, 2010 are in parentheses. 

Poll Watch: PPP (D) Florida 2012 GOP Primary

PPP (D) Florida 2012 GOP Primary

  • Mike Huckabee 23% {15%} [15%] (21%)
  • Mitt Romney 21% {28%} [31%] (52%)
  • Newt Gingrich 18% {15%} [23%]
  • Sarah Palin 13% {22%} [23%] (18%)
  • Ron Paul 8%
  • Tim Pawlenty 4% {4%}
  • Mitch Daniels 2% {1%}
  • John Thune 1% {1%}
  • Someone else/Undecided 10% {12%}

Among Conservatives

  • Mike Huckabee 22% {14%} [16%] (23%)
  • Mitt Romney 21% {25%} [26%] (51%)
  • Newt Gingrich 19% {17%} [26%]
  • Sarah Palin 14% {27%} [26%] (18%)
  • Ron Paul 8% [4%]
  • Tim Pawlenty 5% {3%}
  • Mitch Daniels 2% {2%}
  • John Thune 1% {1%}
  • Someone else/Undecided 8% {8%}

Among Moderates

  • Mitt Romney 25% {36%} [40%] (54%)
  • Mike Huckabee 23% {18%} [13%] (18%)
  • Newt Gingrich 15% {6%} [15%]
  • Sarah Palin 8% {8%} [16%] (18%)
  • Ron Paul 6% [9%]
  • Mitch Daniels 3% {0%}
  • Tim Pawlenty 2% {8%}
  • John Thune 0% {0%}
  • Someone else/Undecided 18% {24%}

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

  • Mike Huckabee 67% / 20% {+47%}
  • Mitt Romney 61% / 22% {+39%}
  • Newt Gingrich 59% / 24% {+35%}
  • Sarah Palin 61% / 32% {+29%}

Among Conservatives

  • Mike Huckabee 75% / 14% {+61%}
  • Sarah Palin 73% / 22% {+51%}
  • Newt Gingrich 66% / 18% {+48%}
  • Mitt Romney 67% / 20% {+47%}

Among Moderates

  • Mitt Romney 54% / 23% {+31%}
  • Mike Huckabee 51% / 31% {+20%}
  • Newt Gingrich 42% / 34% {+8%}
  • Sarah Palin 34% / 56% {-22%}

Survey of 400 Republican primary voters was conducted December 17-20, 2010.  The margin of error is +/- 4.9 percentage points.  Political ideology: 70% Conservative; 25% Moderate; 5% Liberal.  Results from the poll conducted October 30-31, 2010 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted July 16-18, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 5-8, 2010 are in parentheses.

December 22, 2010

Poll Watch: Clarus Research 2012 Presidential Survey

Clarus Research 2012 Presidential Survey

  • Barack Obama (D) 39%
  • Mitt Romney (R) 36%
  • Michael Bloomberg (I) 13%
  • Barack Obama (D) 42%
  • Sarah Palin (R) 31%
  • Michael Bloomberg (I) 18%

Because of term limits, Bill Clinton cannot run for President again. But, just suppose for a moment, that he could run again––in that case, would you prefer Barack Obama or Bill Clinton to be elected President?

  • Bill Clinton 45%
  • Barack Obama 29%

Even though the President before Obama––George W. Bush––also cannot run for president again because of term limits, just suppose for a moment that he could run again––in that case, would you prefer Barack Obama or George W. Bush to be elected President?

  • Barack Obama 48%
  • George W. Bush 44%

I am now going to read to you a couple of statements about government and politics… please tell me whether you agree or disagree with each one––

In many ways, America is in decline and we need strong, competent leadership to get us back on track.

  • Agree 85%
  • Disagree 11%

It would be good for the country to elect a nonpartisan President who is neither a Democrat nor a Republican.

  • Agree 48%
  • Disagree 38%

THE FOLLOWING QUESTIONS WERE ASKED ONLY OF REPUBLICANS…

As you may know, there are a number of Republicans who are considering running for president in 2012. Please tell me which ONE of the following would you most likely vote for if the presidential primary were held today… Mitt Romney, Sarah Palin, Mike Huckabee, Newt Gingrich, Chris Christie, John Thune, Haley Barbour, Tim Pawlenty, Ron Paul, Bobby Jindal, Marco Rubio, or Mitch Daniels…

  • Mitt Romney 19%
  • Mike Huckabee 18%
  • Sarah Palin 17%
  • Newt Gingrich 10%
  • Chris Christie 9%
  • Marco Rubio 5%
  • Ron Paul 4%
  • Bobby Jindal 4%
  • Tim Pawlenty 3%
  • Haley Barbour 2%
  • John Thune 2%
  • Mitch Daniels 2%
  • Undecided 5%

Thinking more about the 2012 election…

Would you prefer the next Republican presidential candidate be someone with legislative experience in Congress …or… someone with management experience as a governor?

  • Management experience/governor 65%
  • Legislative experience/Congress 15%

If you had to pick between the two––would you prefer the next Republican presidential candidate be someone with experience in government …or… someone with experience in private business?

  • Experience in private business 53%
  • Experience in government 28%

If you had to pick between the two––would you prefer the next Republican presidential candidate be someone known for clear and consistent philosophical principles …or… someone known to be intelligent and competent?

  • Someone who is intelligent and competent 49%
  • Someone with clear and consistent philosophical principles 37%

If you had to pick between the two––would you prefer the next Republican presidential candidate be a moderate conservative who has a good chance of beating Barack Obama …or… someone who is an outspoken conservative who has only a fair chance of beating Barack Obama?

  • A moderate, pragmatic conservative 61%
  • A staunch, outspoken conservative 29%

Do you think someone in his or her early 40s is too young to be President?

  • Yes 20%
  • No 76%

Survey of 1,000 registered voters, including a sub-sample of 365 registered Republicans, was conducted December 10-16, 2010. The margin of error is +/- 3.1 percentage points among all registered voters; +/- 5.1 percentage points among registered Republicans.

December 17, 2010

Friday’s Line From The Fix

Those of you R4’08 veterans out there will remember the debates sparked by Chris Cillizza’s Friday columns in the Washington Post entitled “The Line”. They became a weekly virtual water cooler moment as everyone argued why their candidate of choice deserved a higher ranking, or why others were ranked too high on the list.

Well, Cillizza is back in form for the 2012 campaign, and even at this (very) early juncture in the campaign (before anyone has even announced!), he is firing up The Line once again. Here’s this week’s version:

1. Romney
2. Palin
3. Gingrich
4. Pawlenty
5. Huckabee
6. Barbour
7. Thune
8. Daniels
9. Pence
10. DeMint

See the reasoning after the fold, and have fun in the comments…
(more…)

Poll Watch: PPP (D) Wisconsin 2012 Democratic Presidential Survey

PPP (D) Wisconsin 2012 Democratic Presidential Survey

Who would you like to see the Republicans nominate for President in 2012: Mitch Daniels, Newt Gingrich, Mike Huckabee, Sarah Palin, Ron Paul, Tim Pawlenty, Mitt Romney or John Thune?

  • Sarah Palin 21%
  • Mike Huckabee 15%
  • Mitt Romney 9%
  • Ron Paul 9%
  • Newt Gingrich 5%
  • Mitch Daniels 2%
  • Tim Pawlenty 2%
  • John Thune 1%
  • Someone else/Undecided 36%

In 2012 would you most like the Democratic Presidential nominee to be Barack Obama, someone more liberal than Barack Obama, someone more conservative than Barack Obama, or are you not sure?

  • Barack Obama 70%
  • Someone more liberal 9%
  • Someone more conservative 14%
  • Not sure 7%

Do you approve or disapprove of President Barack Obama’s job performance?

  • Approve 83%
  • Disapprove 10%

Survey of 300 usual Democratic primary voters was conducted December 10-12, 2010. The margin of error is +/- 5.7 percentage points. Political ideology: 52% Moderate; 38% Liberal; 10% Conservative.

Inside the numbers:

“You don’t hear about them nearly as much but there are actually more Democrats severely unhappy with Barack Obama from the right than there are on the left,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Meanwhile Democratic voters seem to realize their best hope at getting Obama reelected is for the Republicans to nominate Sarah Palin.”

Poll Watch: PPP (D) Ohio 2012 Democratic Presidential Survey

PPP (D) Ohio 2012 Democratic Presidential Survey

Who would you like to see the Republicans nominate for President in 2012: Mitch Daniels, Newt Gingrich, Mike Huckabee, Sarah Palin, Ron Paul, Tim Pawlenty, Mitt Romney or John Thune?

  • Sarah Palin 22%
  • Mike Huckabee 16%
  • Mitt Romney 8%
  • Ron Paul 8%
  • Newt Gingrich 7%
  • Mitch Daniels 4%
  • Tim Pawlenty 2%
  • John Thune 0%
  • Someone else/Undecided 33%

In 2012 would you most like the Democratic Presidential nominee to be Barack Obama, someone more liberal than Barack Obama, someone more conservative than Barack Obama, or are you not sure?

  • Barack Obama 67%
  • Someone more liberal 7%
  • Someone more conservative 15%
  • Not sure 11%

Do you approve or disapprove of President Barack Obama’s job performance?

  • Approve 72%
  • Disapprove 15%

Survey of 300 usual Democratic primary voters was conducted December 10-12, 2010. The margin of error is +/- 5.7 percentage points. Political ideology: 50% Moderate; 35% Liberal; 15% Conservative.

Inside the numbers:

“You don’t hear about them nearly as much but there are actually more Democrats severely unhappy with Barack Obama from the right than there are on the left,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Meanwhile Democratic voters seem to realize their best hope at getting Obama reelected is for the Republicans to nominate Sarah Palin.”

December 16, 2010

Poll Watch: PPP (D) 2012 Wisconsin GOP Primary

PPP (D) 2012 Wisconsin GOP Primary

  • Sarah Palin 21% (18%)
  • Mike Huckabee 18% (15%)
  • Mitt Romney 17% (12%)
  • Newt Gingrich 13% (14%)
  • Tim Pawlenty 10% (8%)
  • Ron Paul 4%
  • John Thune 3% (1%)
  • Mitch Daniels 2% (2%)
  • Someone else/Undecided 12% (28%)

Among Conservatives

  • Sarah Palin 23% (20%)
  • Mike Huckabee 18% (14%)
  • Mitt Romney 16% (12%)
  • Newt Gingrich 14% (16%)
  • Tim Pawlenty 9% (8%)
  • Ron Paul 4%
  • John Thune 3% (1%)
  • Mitch Daniels 2% (2%)
  • Someone else/Undecided 11% (26%)

Among Moderates

  • Mike Huckabee 20% (16%)
  • Mitt Romney 20% (15%)
  • Tim Pawlenty 16% (9%)
  • Sarah Palin 13% (11%)
  • Newt Gingrich 10% (10%)
  • Ron Paul 6%
  • John Thune 1% (0%)
  • Mitch Daniels 0% (3%) 
  • Someone else/Undecided 15% (35%) 

Among Men

  • Sarah Palin 21% (21%)
  • Mike Huckabee 16% (16%)
  • Newt Gingrich 15% (17%)
  • Mitt Romney 14% (11%)
  • Tim Pawlenty 13% (12%)
  • Ron Paul 5%
  • John Thune 3% (0%)
  • Mitch Daniels 2% (2%) 
  • Someone else/Undecided 10% (19%)

Among Women

  • Sarah Palin 21% (14%)
  • Mike Huckabee 21% (13%)
  • Mitt Romney 19% (13%)
  • Newt Gingrich 11% (10%)
  • Tim Pawlenty 7% (5%)
  • Ron Paul 4%
  • Mitch Daniels 2% (3%)
  • John Thune 2% (1%) 
  • Someone else/Undecided 15% (39%)

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

  • Sarah Palin 71% / 21% {+50%}
  • Mike Huckabee 59% / 22% {+37%}
  • Mitt Romney 57% / 23% {+34%}
  • Newt Gingrich 56% / 24% {+32%}

Among Conservatives

  • Sarah Palin 78% / 14% {+64%}
  • Newt Gingrich 61% / 19% {+42%}
  • Mike Huckabee 60% / 20% {+40%}
  • Mitt Romney 58% / 21% {+37%}

Among Moderates

  • Mike Huckabee 52% / 27% {+25%}
  • Mitt Romney 52% / 27% {+25%}
  • Sarah Palin 49% / 40% {+9%}
  • Newt Gingrich 40% / 41% {-1%}

Survey of 400 Republican primary voters was conducted December 10-12, 2010. The margin of error is +/- 4.9 percentage points.  Political ideology: 77% Conservative; 21% Moderate; 2% Liberal.  Results from the poll conducted October 26-28, 2010 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: PPP (D) 2012 Ohio GOP Primary

PPP (D) 2012 Ohio GOP Primary

  • Sarah Palin 21% (20%)
  • Mike Huckabee 19% (17%)
  • Newt Gingrich 18% (19%)
  • Mitt Romney 15% (14%)
  • Ron Paul 6%
  • Mitch Daniels 5% (3%)
  • Tim Pawlenty 3% (6%)
  • John Thune 2% (0%)
  • Someone else/Undecided 11% (18%)

Among Conservatives

  • Sarah Palin 24% (21%)
  • Newt Gingrich 21% (21%)
  • Mike Huckabee 18% (19%)
  • Mitt Romney 14% (13%)
  • Mitch Daniels 4% (2%)
  • Ron Paul 4%
  • Tim Pawlenty 4% (6%) 
  • John Thune 2% (0%)
  • Someone else/Undecided 10% (15%)

Among Moderates

  • Mike Huckabee 23% (14%)
  • Mitt Romney 21% (19%
  • Newt Gingrich 13% (14%)
  • Ron Paul 13%
  • Sarah Palin 11% (15%)
  • Mitch Daniels 7% (5%)
  • Tim Pawlenty 1% (8%)
  • John Thune 0 (0%)
  • Someone else/Undecided 12% (26%)

Among Men

  • Sarah Palin 19% (19%)
  • Mitt Romney 19% (16%)
  • Newt Gingrich 18% (22%)
  • Mike Huckabee 17%  (16%)
  • Ron Paul 7%
  • Mitch Daniels 5% (5%)
  • Tim Pawlenty 3% (6%) 
  • John Thune 2% (1%)
  • Someone else/Undecided 9% (14%)

Among Women

  • Sarah Palin 22% (21%)
  • Mike Huckabee 21% (19%)
  • Newt Gingrich 19% (16%)
  • Mitt Romney 11% (13%)
  • Ron Paul 5%
  • Tim Pawlenty 4% (7%)
  • Mitch Daniels 4% (1%)
  • John Thune 1% (0%)
  • Someone else/Undecided 14% (21%)

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

  • Sarah Palin 68% / 20% {+48%}
  • Mike Huckabee 64% / 20% {+44%}
  • Mitt Romney 53% / 25% {+28%}
  • Newt Gingrich 53% / 27% {+26%}

Among Conservatives

  • Sarah Palin 76% / 12% {+64%}
  • Mike Huckabee 70% / 17% {+53%}
  • Newt Gingrich 62% / 21% {+41%}
  • Mitt Romney 54% / 24% {+30%}

Among Moderates

  • Mike Huckabee 48% / 26% {+22%}
  • Mitt Romney 48% / 30% {+18%}
  • Sarah Palin 43% / 44% {-1%}
  • Newt Gingrich 30% / 42% {-12%}

Survey of 400 Republican primary voters was conducted December 10-12, 2010. The margin of error is +/- 4.9 percentage points.  Political ideology: 73% Conservative; 24% Moderate; 3% Liberal.  Results from the poll conducted October 28-30, 2010 are in parentheses.

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