- Jeb Bush (R) 41%
- Hillary Clinton (D) 41%
- Uncertain 18%
- Paul Ryan (R) 44%
- Hillary Clinton (D) 44%
- Uncertain 13%
Survey of 522 likely voters was conducted September 29-30, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points. Party ID: 32% Democrat; 32% Republican; 35% Independent/Other.
–Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal
Whoa… All I can say is that you should read Erick Erickson’s post over at Redstate here.
Since it became increasingly clear, following my candidate (and employer) Gary Johnson’s decision to drop out and run third party, and my second choice Ron Paul’s failure to gain traction after his very-respectable-but-just-not-energizing-enough finishes in the Iowa and New Hampshire contests, that a libertarian would not be representing the Republican Party in the general election, my sense of disappointment, frustration, and burn-out has compelled me to take something of a slight break from politics for a month or two. (I’m sure you were all enormously grieved by my absence.) A lot of libertarians in the GOP have been, and are currently, going through this phase right now. One thing that may be snapping a lot of us out of our funk, however, is the chilling surge in popularity of Rick Santorum–quite possibly one of the most overtly anti-libertarian candidates ever to come within reach of the GOP presidential nomination.
CNN has the scoop:
A group of loyalists to South Carolina Sen. Jim DeMint – including a top fundraiser for Rick Perry – will publicly endorse Mitt Romney’s presidential bid on Thursday, a source confirmed to CNN.
Former South Carolina GOP Chairman Barry Wynn, Columbia businessman and fundraiser Peter Brown, and Columbia attorney Kevin Hall will announce their support for Romney Thursday.
Wynn’s move to Romney is striking. The Spartanburg financial adviser is a member of Perry’s finance team and traveled to Texas in August to meet privately with the governor before he announced his bid.
All three Republican heavyweights, who are longtime DeMint advisers, are part of an informal group of South Carolina GOP power brokers that dubbed itself the “keep your powder dry caucus” this summer to express their discontent with the current GOP field.
Full story here.
Suffolk University has released their latest New Hampshire Poll. They polled 400 New Hampshire residents who claimed to be at least 50/50 likely to vote in the upcoming Presidential primary. Here are the top lines. Here are the crosstabs.
Three of their questions were as follows:
Here are the results:
|(Horse Race)||1st Choice||2nd Choice||President|
The Americans For Prosperity Foundation of New Hampshire is having a “Presidential Forum” starting tonight at 8:00PM EST. Participating are:
It is supposedly being carried online at CSPAN here.
I do not know the format. I presume each worthy will be given ‘x’ number of minutes to say their piece.
Here is a link to the CSPAN recording of the event.
The Washington Post, in conjunction with ABC News has just released a new poll. It shows President Obama continuing his slow sinking in the polls since January.
Obama’s job approval/disapproval rating is pegged at 47/50 — the worst this year for both numbers.
His handling of the economy is 42/57, again the worst this year. It’s the worse since September of last year.
In the poll, they asked all the leaning Republicans whom they would vote for if the GOP primary was held today. They made it open ended. They did not provide any names. Here are the results they got:
They asked everyone the “vs. Obama” question for a number of top GOP 2012 hopefuls. The results are as follows:
This Washington Post-ABC News poll was conducted by telephone April 14-17, 2011, among a random national sample of 1,001 adults, including users of both conventional and cellular phones. The results from the full survey have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. Sampling, data collection and tabulation by TNS of Horsham, Pa.
Here are the main things I take away from this poll:
Chris Cillizza, of the Washington Post, apparently thinks so; in an article today, he tamped down speculation, fueled most recently by Sen. Jim DeMint, that the eventual 2012 Republican nominee could enter the race late:
Let’s start with governors, the ranks of which DeMint suggested might produce a new crop of national candidates.
Of the 25 Republican governors, 20 of them were elected or appointed in 2009 and 2010. That relative newness makes it difficult — rhetorically and organizationally — for any of the 20 to quickly pivot to a presidential race.
The obvious exception to that rule is New Jersey’s Chris Christie who, in less than two years on the job, has emerged as a straight-talking superstar for Republicans nationally.
…It still seems an unlikely prospect, however. One plugged-in Republican operative suggested that there is a “10 percent” chance that Christie runs.
Beyond Christie, the only other potential candidate who could immediately step into the race with a real following is Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker who endeared himself to Republicans nationwide with his stand-off against organized labor earlier this year. But having just weathered that traumatic political moment, it’s hard to imagine Walker moving into the presidential field.
Other newly-elected governors with bright futures at the national level — South Carolina’s Nikki Haley, Nevada’s Brian Sandoval, New Mexico’s Susana Martinez, Pennsylvania’s Tom Corbett — seem content to let their stars rise more slowly.
So, if you assume that none of the newest governors will run, you are left with five people: Govs. Rick Perry (Texas), Mitch Daniels (Ind.), Bobby Jindal (La.), Dave Heineman (Neb.) and Butch Otter (Idaho) — all of whom were elected in 2007 or earlier.
Neither Heineman nor Otter have any sort of national profile. Jindal is actively running for a second term this November, making it impossible for him to simultaneously put the pieces of a presidential bid together. Perry is intriguing but might struggle with being viewed as the second coming of George W. Bush. Plus, Perry’s 2010 campaign manager Rob Johnson and longtime political consigliere Dave Carney have signed on with former House Speaker Newt Gingrich’s presidential campaign, moves that suggest the Texas governor isn’t likely to be a surprise late entrant into the race.
Cillizza proceeds to discuss the notion of Daniels running, an exercise tossed about often on this site and, thus, one I won’t re-hash. The author then mentions the list, which pretty much begins and ends with Rand/Ron Paul and Michele Bachman, of possibilities from the Senate and House. He concludes with the following:
Viewed broadly then, the 2012 field appears unlikely to be considerably affected by a last-minute candidacy. Christie is the true wildcard and would almost certainly re-shape the race if he ran. But, it’s hard to find anyone in Republican circles who put the odds on such a bid at anything short of long.
A Daniels candidacy would make the race interesting but wouldn’t exactly be the sort of “new cast” member to which DeMint was referring.
In Cillizza’s mind, the layout of the 2012 race has begun to come into view, and those who drag their feet risk losing out on precious staff talent, fundraising dollars, and media exposure.
His analysis certainly challenges a significant deal of conventional wisdom, which states that the apparent lack of a clear frontrunner leaves the race wide open. If Mr. Cillizza has, indeed, read the tea leaves correctly, it seems to bode well for candidates like Romney, Pawlenty, and Bachmann; the former two have taken some of the most significant steps toward building campaign organizations, Pawlenty has a real opportunity to attract the anyone-but-Romney vote, and Bachmann will presumably take much of the Tea Party/anti-establishment vote.
Jim DeMint, through a Senate Conservatives Fund proxy, definitely stated that he was not running for President in 2012. Senate Conservatives Fund spokesman Matt Hoskins said, “[DeMint]’s said all along that he isn’t running for President and his role in the primary is to encourage the candidates to embrace conservative principles.”
It’s not entirely unexpected, but it is a definitive response. This begs the question – who will the conservative, South Carolinan endorse in 2012? In 2008, DeMint endorsed Romney.