July 29, 2014

Poll Watch: Fox News 2016 Republican Nomination Survey

Fox News 2016 GOP Nomination Poll

  • Jeb Bush 12% [14%] (12%)
  • Rick Perry 12% [5%] (3%)
  • Rand Paul 11% [14%] (11%)
  • Chris Christie 10% [15%] (16%)
  • Paul Ryan 9% [9%] (12%)
  • Marco Rubio 9% [8%] (8%)
  • Ted Cruz 9% [7%] (12%)
  • Scott Walker 4% [5%] (6%)
  • Bobby Jindal 4% [2%]
  • Rick Santorum 3% [5%] (3%)
  • John Kasich 2%

National survey of 358 registered Republicans was conducted July 20-22, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 5 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted April 13-15, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted December 14-16, 2013 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 11:11 am. Filed under 2016, Jeb Bush, Poll Watch, Rick Perry

July 28, 2014

Poll Watch: Quinnipiac Florida 2016 Presidential Survey

Quinnipiac Florida 2016 Presidential Poll

  • Hillary Clinton (D) 49% [49%] (49%) {47%} [50%] (51%)
  • Jeb Bush (R) 42% [41%] (43%) {45%} [43%] (40%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 51% [56%] (52%) {50%}
  • Paul Ryan (R) 38% [36%] (39%) {42%}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 53% [52%] (51%) {50%} [53%] (52%)
  • Marco Rubio (R) 39% [40%] (41%) {43%} [41%] (41%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 53% [55%] (53%) {51%}
  • Rand Paul (R) 37% [37%] (38%) {41%}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 54% [52%] (51%) {45%}
  • Chris Christie (R) 33% [34%] (35%) {41%}

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

  • Hillary Clinton 58% [58%] [57%] (62%) / 38% [37%] [38%] (33%) {+20%}
  • Jeb Bush 48% [53%] [54%] (50%) / 37% [35%] [33%] (35%) {+11%}
  • Marco Rubio 43% [43%] [44%] (41%) / 35% [36%] [33%] (34%) {+8%}
  • Rand Paul 32% [34%] / 28% [31%] {+4%}
  • Paul Ryan 33% [33%] / 30% [36%] {+3%}
  • Chris Christie 35% [37%] / 36% [35%] {-1%}

Survey of 1,251 registered voters was conducted July 17-21, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 2.8 percentage points. Party ID: 31% [31%] (30%) {32%} [34%] (35%) Democrat; 28% [25%] (27%) {29%} [28%] (27%) Republican; 32% [34%] (35%) {32%} [30%] (31%) Independent; 9% [11%] (7%) {7%} [8%] (7%) Other.  Results from the poll conducted April 23-28, 2014 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 22-27, 2014 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted November 12-17, 2013 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted June 11-16, 2013 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted March 13-18, 2013 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 11:45 am. Filed under 2016, Hillary Clinton, Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, Poll Watch

July 24, 2014

Poll Watch: PPP (D) Mississippi 2016 Presidential Survey

PPP (D) Mississippi 2016 Presidential Poll

  • Mike Huckabee (R) 49%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 42%
  • Jeb Bush (R) 47% (50%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 42% (42%)
  • Chris Christie (R) 45% (49%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 42% (40%)
  • Rand Paul (R) 45% (46%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 43% (44%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 44% (45%)
  • Ted Cruz (R) 44% (47%)

Among Men

  • Mike Huckabee (R) 54%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 33%
  • Jeb Bush (R) 53% (58%) 
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 33% (34%)
  • Chris Christie (R) 51% (58%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 33% (32%)
  • Rand Paul (R) 55% (55%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 35% (37%)
  • Ted Cruz (R) 52% (55%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 38% (38%)

Among Women

  • Hillary Clinton (D) 48%
  • Mike Huckabee (R) 44%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 49% (49%)
  • Jeb Bush (R) 42% (43%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 50% (47%)
  • Chris Christie (R) 39% (42%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 50% (50%)
  • Rand Paul (R) 37% (38%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 50% (50%)
  • Ted Cruz (R) 38% (40%)

Among Whites

  • Mike Huckabee (R) 71%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 19%
  • Jeb Bush (R) 67% (75%) 
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 20% (19%)
  • Chris Christie (R) 63% (72%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 21% (17%)
  • Rand Paul (R) 66% (68%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 22% (19%)
  • Ted Cruz (R) 64% (69%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 24% (20%)

Among Blacks

  • Hillary Clinton (D) 81%
  • Mike Huckabee (R) 10%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 80% (87%)
  • Jeb Bush (R) 12% (4%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 79% (84%)
  • Chris Christie (R) 13% (9%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 81% (92%)
  • Rand Paul (R) 10% (4%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 82% (91%)
  • Ted Cruz (R) 9% (6%)

Survey of 691 Mississippi voters was conducted July 10-13, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 3.7 percentage points. Party ID: 43% (43%) Republican; 39% (37%) Democrat; 19% (20%) Independent/Other. Political ideology: 26% (23%) Moderate; 26% (27%) Very conservative; 25% (24%) Somewhat conservative; 14% (15%)Somewhat liberal; 10% (11%) Very liberal. Race: 60% (62%) White; 34% (32%) Black; 6% (6%) Other. Results from the poll conducted November 15-17, 2013 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 10:20 am. Filed under 2016, Chris Christie, Hillary Clinton, Jeb Bush, Mike Huckabee, Poll Watch, Ted Cruz

July 21, 2014

Poll Watch: NBC News/Marist Iowa 2016 Republican Caucus Survey

NBC News/Marist Iowa 2016 GOP Caucus Poll 

  • Jeb Bush 12%
  • Rand Paul 12%
  • Paul Ryan 11%
  • Rick Santorum 9%
  • Chris Christie 8%
  • Rick Perry 7%
  • Ted Cruz 7%
  • Marco Rubio 7%
  • Scott Walker 5%
  • Bobby Jindal 1%
  • Undecided 20%

Survey of 558 registered Republican voters was conducted July 7-13, 2014.  The margin of error is +/- 4.1 percentage points.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 10:45 am. Filed under 2016, Iowa Caucuses, Jeb Bush, Poll Watch, Rand Paul

July 9, 2014

Poll Watch: PPP (D) Louisiana 2016 Presidential Survey

PPP (D) Louisiana 2016 Presidential Poll 

  • Jeb Bush (R) 46% {50%} [44%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 45% {43%} [44%]
  • Mike Huckabee (R) 46% {49%}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 45% {44%}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 46% {43%} [44%]  
  • Rand Paul (R) 46% {47%} [45%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 46%
  • Ted Cruz (R) 45%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 46% {43%} [42%]
  • Chris Christie (R) 42% {44%} [41%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 48% {45%} [47%] (48%)
  • Bobby Jindal (R) 44% {47%} [40%] (45%)

Among Men

  • Jeb Bush (R) 47% {52%} [49%] 
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 42% {39%} [37%]
  • Mike Huckabee (R) 53% {54%} 
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 39% {40%}
  • Rand Paul (R) 52% {51%} [51%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 41% {39%} [37%]
  • Ted Cruz (R) 53%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 41%
  • Chris Christie (R) 48% {51%} [44%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 40% {36%} [35%]
  • Bobby Jindal (R) 49% {50%} [44%] (54%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 42% {43%} [42%] (40%)

Among Women 

  • Hillary Clinton (D) 48% {45%} [52%]
  • Jeb Bush (R) 45% {48%} [39%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 50% {46%}
  • Mike Huckabee (R) 40% {45%}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 50% {46%} [51%]
  • Rand Paul (R) 40% {44%} [39%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 50% 
  • Ted Cruz (R) 39%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 51% {48%} [49%]
  • Chris Christie (R) 37% {39%} [37%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 53% {47%} [53%] (56%)
  • Bobby Jindal (R) 39% {44%} [36%] (36%)

Do you think Bobby Jindal should run for President in 2016, or not?

  • He should run 17% {25%} [17%] (24%)
  • He should not 72% {63%} [72%] (66%)
Survey of 664 registered voters was conducted June 26-29, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 3.8 percentage points. Party ID: 44% {42%} [45%] (43%) Democrat; 36% {38%} [36%] (39%) Republican; 20% {20%} [18%] (17%) Independent/Other.  Political ideology: 29% {32%} [27%] (28%) Moderate; 24% {25%} [31%] (22%) Somewhat conservative; 22% {21%} [22%] (26%) Very conservative; 17% {13%} [12%] (12%) Somewhat liberal; 7% {9%} [9%] (12%) Very liberal. Results from the poll conducted February 6-9, 2014 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 16-19, 2013 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 8-12, 2013 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 12:00 pm. Filed under 2016, Hillary Clinton, Jeb Bush, Mike Huckabee, Poll Watch

June 13, 2014

Poll Watch: PPP (D) Florida 2016 Republican Presidential Primary Survey

PPP (D) Florida 2016 GOP Presidential Primary Poll

  • Jeb Bush 30% (30%) {26%} [28%] (22%)
  • Marco Rubio 14% (29%) {31%} [22%] (24%)
  • Rand Paul 11% (11%) {5%} [3%] (4%)
  • Ted Cruz 9%
  • Chris Christie 8% (8%) {7%} [9%] (10%)
  • Mike Huckabee 7% (9%) {11%} [11%] (10%)
  • Scott Walker 7%
  • Paul Ryan 2% (4%) {5%} [8%] (10%)
  • Bobby Jindal 1% (2%) {5%}
  • Someone else/Not sure 10% (6%) {5%} [5%] (4%)

Among Men

  • Jeb Bush 32% (33%) {22%} [33%] (23%)
  • Rand Paul 11% (13%) {4%} [3%] (4%)
  • Scott Walker 10%
  • Ted Cruz 10%
  • Marco Rubio 10% (27%) {34%} [20%] (28%)
  • Chris Christie 9% (7%) {7%} [8%] (11%)
  • Mike Huckabee 5% (8%) {11%} [8%] (9%)
  • Paul Ryan 2% (4%) {7%} [8%] (11%)
  • Bobby Jindal 2% (3%) {4%}
  • Someone else/Not sure 9% (5%) {4%} [3%] (3%)

Among Women

  • Jeb Bush 27% (25%) {31%} [23%] (21%)
  • Marco Rubio 17% (31%) {27%} [23%] (20%)
  • Rand Paul 11% (10%) {6%} [3%] (5%)
  • Mike Huckabee 9% (10%) {12%} [13%] (11%)
  • Ted Cruz 8%
  • Chris Christie 7% (9%) {7%} [9%] (9%)
  • Scott Walker 4%
  • Paul Ryan 3% (5%) {3%} [8%] (9%)
  • Bobby Jindal 1% (1%) {6%}
  • Someone else/Not sure 11% (7%) {6%} [6%] (5%)
If you had to choose between just Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio as the Republican candidate for President in 2016, who would you pick? 

  • Marco Rubio 45% (49%)  
  • Jeb Bush 41% (36%)
  • Not sure 14% (15%)

Do you think Jeb Bush should run for President in 2016, or not?

  • Think he should 47%
  • Think he should not 38%

Do you think Marco Rubio should run for President in 2016, or not?

  • Think he should 42%
  • Think he should not 41%

Survey of 315 Republican primary voters was conducted June 6-9, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 5.5 percentage points. Political ideology: 41% (40%) {36%} [42%] (40%) Somewhat conservative; 28% (27%) {35%} [34%] (33%) Very conservative; 22% (24%) {19%} [19%] (20%) Moderate; 6% (6%) {9%} [3%] (5%) Somewhat liberal; 2% (2%) {2%} [2%] (3%) Very liberal.  Results from the poll conducted March 15-18, 2013 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted January 11-13, 2013 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 3-4, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 31 – September 2, 2012 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 11:33 am. Filed under 2016, Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, Poll Watch

June 12, 2014

Poll Watch: Vox Populi Polling (R) Iowa 2016 Republican Caucus Survey

Vox Populi Polling (R) Iowa 2016 GOP Caucus Poll 

  • Jeb Bush 18% (18%)
  • Mike Huckabee 15% (20%)
  • Paul Ryan 13% (19%)
  • Rand Paul 12% (8%)
  • Marco Rubio 11% (9%)
  • Rick Santorum 10%
  • Ted Cruz 9% (9%)
  • Chris Christie 6% (7%)
  • Scott Walker 6% (6%)

Survey of 222 registered Republican voters was conducted June 4-5, 2014.  The margin of error is +/- 6.6 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted April 22-24, 2014 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 10:15 am. Filed under 2016, Jeb Bush, Poll Watch

May 15, 2014

Poll Watch: PPP (D) Alaska 2016 Presidential Survey

  • Jeb Bush (R) 47% {47%} [49%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 41% {39%} [42%]
  • Rand Paul (R) 46% {47%} [49%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 40% {41%} [43%]
  • Chris Christie (R) 44% {43%} [46%] (43%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 41% {39%} [38%] (42%)
  • Mike Huckabee (R) 43% {45%}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 42% {41%}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 44% {44%} [49%] (53%)
  • Sarah Palin (R) 41% {43%} [40%] (37%)

Among Men

  • Jeb Bush (R) 58% {54%} [59%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 32% {33%} [31%]
  • Rand Paul (R) 55% {55%} [58%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 34% {35%} [34%]
  • Chris Christie (R) 51% {49%} [51%] (50%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 33% {34%} [31%] (35%)
  • Mike Huckabee (R) 51% {51%}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 36% {35%}
  • Sarah Palin (R) 50% {49%} [48%] (43%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 34% {37%} [39%] (46%)

Among Women 

  • Hillary Clinton (D) 48% {45%} [52%]
  • Jeb Bush (R) 37% {40%} [40%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 46% {46%} [50%]
  • Rand Paul (R) 39% {41%} [42%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 48% {44%} [45%] (47%)
  • Chris Christie (R) 37% {38%} [43%] (38%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 47% {47%}
  • Mike Huckabee (R) 37% {40%}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 54% {50%} [58%] (60%)
  • Sarah Palin (R) 32% {38%} [34%] (31%)

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Sarah Palin?

  • Favorable 36% {39%} [39%] (34%)
  • Unfavorable 56% {55%} [58%] (59%)
Do you think Sarah Palin should run for President in 2016, or not?

  • She should run 19% {23%} [18%] (16%)
  • She should not 74% {69%} [77%] (78%)

Survey of 582 registered voters was conducted May 8-11, 2014.  The margin of error is +/- 4.1 percentage points.  Party ID: 29% {33%} [32%] (32%) Republican; 18% {20%} [20%] (21%) Democrat; 53% {46%} [48%] (46%) Independent/Other.  Ideology: 31% {32%} [30%] (33%) Moderate; 22% {21%} [20%] (19%) Very conservative; 21% {23%} [25%] (25%) Somewhat conservative; 16% {16%} [17%] (15%) Somewhat liberal; 9% {7%} [8%] (9%) Very liberal. Results from the poll conducted January 30 – February 1, 2014 are in curly brackets.Results from the poll conducted July 25-28, 2013 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 4-5, 2013 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 2:00 pm. Filed under 2016, Chris Christie, Hillary Clinton, Jeb Bush, Mike Huckabee, Poll Watch, Rand Paul, Sarah Palin

Poll Watch: PPP (D) North Carolina 2016 Republican Primary Survey

PPP (D) North Carolina 2016 GOP Primary Poll

  • Mike Huckabee 17% [19%] (22%) {19%} [20%] (15%)
  • Jeb Bush 17% [15%] (18%) {12%} [15%] (14%) {15%} [16%] (9%)
  • Chris Christie 12% [9%] (12%) {15%} [11%] (17%) {19%} [20%](10%)
  • Ted Cruz 12% [17%] (12%) {14%} [8%] (11%) {12%} [12%]
  • Rand Paul 12% [15%] (9%) {12%} [14%] (14%) {13%} [12%] (6%)
  • Paul Ryan 8% [6%] (9%) {4%} [8%] (11%) {7%} [7%] (12%)
  • Scott Walker 5% (7%) {6%} [4%] (3%) {5%} [1%]
  • Marco Rubio 5% [5%] (5%) {5%} [7%] (9%) {10%} [10%] (21%)
  • Bobby Jindal 2% [4%] (2%) {1%} [3%] (5%) {3%} [6%]
  • Someone else/Not sure 11% [9%] (6%) {12%} [9%] (13%) {11%} [13%] (8%)

Among Men

  • Mike Huckabee 18% [13%] (19%) {15%} [15%] (14%)
  • Chris Christie 14% [9%] (12%) {16%} [14%] (18%) {18%} [19%] (10%)
  • Rand Paul 14% [18%] (8%) {13%} [19%] (14%) {15%} [16%] (9%)
  • Ted Cruz 12% [19%] (16%) {16%} [7%] (14%) {15%} [16%]
  • Jeb Bush 12% [15%] {13%} [18%] (14%) {14%} [14%] (11%)
  • Paul Ryan 7% [7%] (8%) {3%} [5%] (10%) {5%} [6%] (12%)
  • Scott Walker 7% (10%) {7%} [6%] (4%) {6%} [1%]
  • Marco Rubio 4% [6%] (6%) {3%} [7%] (7%) {10%} [9%] (22%)
  • Bobby Jindal 1% [4%] (1%) {2%} [3%] (6%) {3%} [5%]
  • Someone else/Not sure 11% [7%] (4%) {12%} [6%] (9%) {7%} [10%] (7%)

Among Women

  • Jeb Bush 23% [15%] (21%) {11%} [13%] (13%) {16%} [18%] (8%)
  • Mike Huckabee 16% [26%] (24%) {24%} [25%] (16%)
  • Ted Cruz 11% [13%] (7%) {11%} [9%] (9%) {10%} [9%]
  • Chris Christie 10% [9%] (12%) {13%} [7%] (17%) {19%} [20%](10%)
  • Paul Ryan 9% [4%] (9%) {5%} [12%] (11%) {8%} [9%] (12%)
  • Rand Paul 9% [11%] (11%) {10%} [9%] (14%) {11%} [8%] (4%)
  • Marco Rubio 5% [4%] (5%) {7%} [7%] (11%) {10%} [10%] (19%)
  • Scott Walker 4% (3%) {5%} [2%] (1%) {4%} [0%]
  • Bobby Jindal 3% [4%] (2%) {1%} [3%] (4%) {3%} [7%]
  • Someone else/Not sure 10% [10%] (7%) {14%} [13%] (17%) {15%} [17%] (10%)

Survey of 394 Republican primary voters was conducted May 9-11, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 4.9 percentage points. Political ideology: 40% [45%] (39%) {37%} [35%] (38%) {37%} [36%] (44%) Very conservative; 37% [35%] (32%) {35%} [33%] (40%) {39%} [36%] (35%) Somewhat conservative; 20% [13%] (21%) {20%} [22%] (16%) {16%} [21%] (13%) Moderate; 2% [4%] (6%) {4%} [7%] (4%) {7%} [4%] (6%) Somewhat liberal; 1% [4%] (3%) {3%} [3%] (2%) {1%} [3%] (1%) Very liberal.  Results from the poll conducted April 26-28, 2014 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 3-6, 2014 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted March 6-9, 2014 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 6-9, 2014 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 9-12, 2014 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted December 5-8, 2013 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 8-11, 2013 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted December 6-9, 2012 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 10:00 am. Filed under 2016, Jeb Bush, Mike Huckabee, Poll Watch

May 6, 2014

Poll Watch: CNN/ORC 2016 Republican Nomination Survey

CNN/ORC 2016 GOP Nomination Poll 

  • Jeb Bush 13% (9%) {10%} [6%] (10%)
  • Rand Paul 13% (16%) {13%} [13%] (13%)
  • Paul Ryan 12% (15%) {9%} [11%] (16%)
  • Mike Huckabee 10% (10%) {14%}
  • Chris Christie 9% (8%) {10%} [24%] (17%)
  • Rick Perry 8% (11%) {8%} [7%] (6%)
  • Scott Walker 7%
  • Ted Cruz 7% (8%) {8%} [10%] (7%)
  • Marco Rubio 6% (5%) {9%} [9%] (9%)
  • Rick Santorum 2% (3%) {4%} [6%] (5%)
  • Someone else (vol.) 4% (6%) {8%} [6%] (6%)
  • None/No one (vol.) 4% (4%) {3%} [2%] (4%)
  • No opinion 7% (5%) {4%} [6%] (6%)

Among Republicans

  • Jeb Bush 15% (11%) {10%} [6%] (13%)
  • Paul Ryan 14% (19%) {9%} [11%] (17%)
  • Rand Paul 12% (10%) {13%} [12%] (9%)
  • Mike Huckabee 12% (9%) {17%}
  • Chris Christie 8% (6%) {8%} [28%] (17%)
  • Scott Walker 7%
  • Rick Perry 7% (11%) {8%} [8%] (7%)
  • Ted Cruz 6% (11%) {5%} [9%] (7%)
  • Marco Rubio 6% (5%) {12%} [10%] (10%)
  • Rick Santorum 2% (4%) {5%} [7%] (3%)
  • Someone else (vol.) 3% (8%) {5%} [6%] (7%)
  • None/No one (vol.) 2% (3%) {4%} [1%] (4%)
  • No opinion 8% (5%) {3%} [3%] (5%)

Among GOP-Leaning Independents

  • Rand Paul 15% (22%) {13%} [15%] (17%)
  • Chris Christie 10% (11%) {13%} [20%] (18%)
  • Jeb Bush 10% (7%) {10%} [6%] (6%)
  • Ted Cruz 9% (6%) {13%} [12%] (7%)
  • Rick Perry 8% (12%) {7%} [7%] (6%)
  • Paul Ryan 8% (11%) {10%} [12%]  (15%)
  • Mike Huckabee 7% (11%) {10%}
  • Marco Rubio 6% (5%) {5%} [7%] (9%)
  • Rick Santorum 2% (2%) {3%} [5%] (7%)
  • Someone else (vol.) 5% (3%) {12%} [6%] (4%)
  • None/No one (vol.) 6% (6%) {2%} [3%] (4%)
  • No opinion 7% (5%) {4%} [8%] (7%)

Among Men 

  • Rand Paul 17% (17%) {17%} [15%] (13%)
  • Jeb Bush 14% (7%) {9%} [2%] (9%)
  • Rick Perry 11% (10%) {7%} [8%] (7%)
  • Ted Cruz 9% (10%) {10%} [12%] (12%)
  • Chris Christie 8% (9%) {6%} [23%] (16%)
  • Scott Walker 8%
  • Mike Huckabee 8% (11%) {14%}
  • Paul Ryan 7% (15%) {12%} [10%] (14%)
  • Marco Rubio 4% (6%) {7%} [11%] (11%)
  • Rick Santorum 1% (2%) {2%} [6%] (6%)
  • Someone else (vol.) 3% (7%) {8%} [6%] (5%)
  • None/No one (vol.) 4% (2%) {4%} [2%] (3%)
  • No opinion 6% (3%) {4%} [4%] (5%)

Among Women

  • Paul Ryan 17% (13%) {6%} [13%] (19%)
  • Jeb Bush 12% (11%) {10%} [10%] (11%)
  • Mike Huckabee 12% (9%) {14%}
  • Rand Paul 10% (14%) {9%} [11%] (12%)
  • Chris Christie 9% (7%) {15%} [24%] (19%)
  • Marco Rubio 8% (5%) {11%} [7%] (7%)
  • Scott Walker 6%
  • Ted Cruz 5% (6%) {7%} [8%] (3%)
  • Rick Perry 4% (13%) {9%} [6%] (6%)
  • Rick Santorum 2% (4%) {7%} [6%] (4%)
  • Someone else (vol.) 4% (4%) {8%} [6%] (6%)
  • None/No one (vol.) 3% (7%) {3%} [2%] (6%)
  • No opinion 9% (6%) {3%} [7%] (7%)

Survey of 473 Republicans and GOP-leaning Independents was conducted May 2-4, 2014.  The margin of error is +/- 4.5 percentage points. Party ID: 61% (50%) {52%} Republican; 39% (50%) {48%} Independent.  Results from the poll conducted March 7-9, 2014 are in parentheses.   Results from the poll conducted January 31 – February 2, 2014 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 18-20, 2013 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 6-8, 2013 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 10:00 am. Filed under 2016, Jeb Bush, Poll Watch, Rand Paul

May 2, 2014

Poll Watch: Quinnipiac Florida 2016 Republican Primary Survey

Quinnipiac Florida 2016 GOP Primary Poll

  • Jeb Bush 27% [25%] (22%)
  • Rand Paul 14% [11%] (9%)
  • Marco Rubio 11% [16%] (18%)
  • Chris Christie 7% [9%] (14%)
  • Ted Cruz 6% [9%] (12%)
  • Mike Huckabee 6%
  • Paul Ryan 6% [5%] (6%)
  • Scott Walker 4% [5%] (2%)
  • Bobby Jindal 1% [3%] (3%)

Among Men

  • Jeb Bush 29% [23%] (21%)
  • Rand Paul 19% [14%] (13%)
  • Marco Rubio 9% [16%] (17%)
  • Paul Ryan 7% [5%] (6%)
  • Chris Christie 6% [9%] (11%)
  • Ted Cruz 5% [10%] (14%)
  • Scott Walker 5% [8%] (4%)
  • Mike Huckabee 5%
  • Bobby Jindal 1% [3%] (4%)

Among Women

  • Jeb Bush 26% [26%] (23%)
  • Marco Rubio 14% [16%] (20%)
  • Chris Christie 9% [9%] (17%)
  • Mike Huckabee 7%
  • Rand Paul 7% [8%] (5%)
  • Ted Cruz 6% [7%] (9%)
  • Paul Ryan 4% [6%] (6%)
  • Scott Walker 3% [3%] (1%)
  • Bobby Jindal 1% [3%] (2%)

Survey of 494 Republican voters was conducted April 23-28, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 4.4 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted January 22-27, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted November 12-17, 2013 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 2:00 pm. Filed under 2016, Jeb Bush, Poll Watch

Poll Watch: Magellan Strategies (R) Florida 2016 Republican Primary Survey

Magellan Strategies (R) Florida 2016 GOP Primary Poll

  • Jeb Bush 38%
  • Mike Huckabee 11%
  • Ted Cruz 10%
  • Rand Paul 10%
  • Marco Rubio 8%
  • Chris Christie 7%
  • Scott Walker 7%
  • John Kasich 3%
  • Undecided 6%

Survey of 365 likely Republican voters was conducted April 14-15, 2014 for The Liberty Foundation of America.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 10:00 am. Filed under 2016, Jeb Bush, Poll Watch

April 29, 2014

Poll Watch: Magellan Strategies (R) Iowa 2016 Republican Caucus Survey

Magellan Strategies (R) Iowa 2016 GOP Caucus Poll 

  • Mike Huckabee 17%
  • Jeb Bush 17%
  • Chris Christie 14%
  • Rand Paul 11%
  • Ted Cruz 10%
  • Scott Walker 8%
  • John Kasich 5%
  • Marco Rubio 2%
  • Undecided 16%

Survey of 331 likely GOP voters was conducted April 14-15, 2014 for The Liberty Foundation of America.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 3:01 pm. Filed under 2016, Iowa Caucuses, Jeb Bush, Mike Huckabee, Poll Watch

April 28, 2014

Bob Schieffer: Romney May Run if Jeb Bush Does Not

Hmmmmm…

Mitt Romney has said time and time again that he has no interest in running for president a third time.

But, on Sunday morning, CBS’ Bob Schieffer said not to write off the idea of a 2016 campaign by Romney so quickly.

“I have a source that told me that if Jeb Bush decides not to run, that Mitt Romney may actually try it again,” Schieffer said.

During a political panel discussion, the “Face the Nation” host said that he has been told that Romney will consider seeking the Republican nomination for the presidency in 2016 if former Florida governor Jeb Bush chooses to sit the race out.

Full story here.

by @ 5:54 pm. Filed under 2016, Jeb Bush, Mitt Romney

March 29, 2014

Romney Redux?

There are a number of serious Republicans interested in running for president, at this early point, in two years.

Some of them, such as Senators Ted Cruz, Rand Paul and Marco Rubio don’t seem to have a broad enough base that would enable them to win the nomination, but they have motivated and vocal supporters, and if they run, they will be notable factors in the Republican primaries and caucuses.

Others, including Rick Santorum, Mike Huckabee and Rick Perry might be seen as figures of the past, and might not run (although Governor Perry is making serious noises about another run in 2016).

2012 vice presidential nominee Paul Ryan, Governors Susana Martinez, Scott Walker, Bobby Jindal, and John Kasich are frequently mentioned, but have yet to indicate their serious interest in 2016.

The two figures who would probably be frontrunners, Governor Chris Christie and former Governor Jeb Bush, have current political problems to overcome (although it is more likely than not that one of these two men will be the GOP nominee).

On the other hand, if the field is large, the primaries and caucuses very bitter, AND the frontrunners falter, the resulting stalemate might propel forward a name which has not really been mentioned seriously, 2012 nominee Mitt Romney, back into contention.

Romney was perhaps the wrong candidate for 2012 because his persona played into the negative Democratic media campaign that year, and because he did not, at the end, assemble as competitive campaign as did Barack Obama. But 2016 promises a very different political environment. After two terms of Mr. Obama, the voters may be weary of any Democrat (as they were in 2008 of any Republican). We must await the results of the 2014 midterm elections to draw more precise and verified conclusions, but Obamacare almost alone seems to be moving the electorate to the GOP, and threatening to ruin the Democratic Party brand for years to come.

In spite of withdrawing U.S. troops from Iraq and Afghanistan, changing our approach to the Middle East by diminishing our long alliance with Israel in a trade-off for (so-far) feckless relationships with other players in the region, and reducing our military and defenses, Mr. Obama’s numbers are very low in polls about his performance in foreign policy. He has been out-dueled so far in his relationship with Russian President Putin. His first term secretary of state, Hillary Clinton, is the presumptive nominee of the Democratic Party in 2016, but, although she will surely try to do so, it might be difficult for her to separate herself from Mr. Obama and her own actions (including her “re-set” with Russia) when working for him. (Remember Hubert Humphrey attempting to do this in 1968?)

Mr. Romney’s assertion that Russia and Mr. Putin were a major problem for the U.S., an assertion he made in the 2012 campaign, and subsequently ridiculed by Mr. Obama, looks rather prescient these days. So do many of his views on the domestic issues he ran on in 2012.

Only twice in the past 100 years has a defeated Republican presidential nominee been renominated by his party. Thomas Dewey lost in 1944, and lost again in 1948. Richard Nixon lost in 1960, but won in 1968 (and again in 1972).

In spite of his recent public visibility, there are no indications that Mitt Romney is even thinking about running again in 2016, nor under present circumstances, would he be considered a serious candidate. But in spite of the large number of major GOP candidates, the Republican field is not yet in focus for one of them to win the nomination.

Considering Mr. Romney’s stature, it is not without some curious interest to speculate, and it’s only speculation, that, in certain circumstances, he might resolve a GOP convention stalemate, or even earlier, return to the campaign field.

I’m just saying.

_________________________________________________________

-Copyright (c) by Barry Casselman. All rights reserved.

March 16, 2014

Poll Watch: Gravis Marketing/Human Events (R) South Carolina 2016 Republican Primary Survey

Gravis Marketing/Human Events (R) South Carolina 2016 GOP Primary Poll 

  • Jeb Bush 22% (16.0%)
  • Mike Huckabee 19% (15.8%)
  • Chris Christie 12% (16.6%)
  • Rand Paul 8% (9.7%)
  • Ted Cruz 8% (11.1%)
  • Marco Rubio 6% (7.2%)
  • Scott Walker 5% (2.3%)
  • Rick Santorum 2% (2.8%)
  • Undecided 19% (18.5%)

Survey of GOP primary voters was conducted March 6-7, 2014.  Results from the poll conducted November 30 – December 2, 2013 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 11:56 am. Filed under 2016, Jeb Bush, Poll Watch

March 14, 2014

Poll Watch: PPP (D) 2016 Republican Nomination Survey

PPP (D) 2016 GOP Nomination Poll 

Given the choices of Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, Ted Cruz, Mike Huckabee, Bobby Jindal, Rand Paul, Marco Rubio, Paul Ryan, and Scott Walker, who would you most like to see as the GOP candidate for President in 2016?

  • Mike Huckabee 18% [16%] (13%) (11%) {15%} [11%] (17%)
  • Jeb Bush 15% [14%] (10%) (13%) {14%} [12%] (17%)
  • Chris Christie 14% [13%] (19%) (13%) {14%} [14%] (21%)
  • Rand Paul 14% [11%] (11%) (10%) {5%} [7%] (4%)
  • Ted Cruz 11% [8%] (14%)
  • Marco Rubio 6% [8%] (7%) (22%) {21%} [18%] (10%)
  • Paul Ryan 5% [8%] (10%) (15%) {16%} [12%] (7%)
  • Scott Walker 5% [6%] (4%)
  • Bobby Jindal 4% [5%] (3%) (4%) {3%} (3%)
  • Someone else/Not sure 9% [10%] (10%) (8%) {7%} [7%] (10%)

If Mike Huckabee was not a candidate for President in 2016, who would you support, given the choices of Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, Ted Cruz, Bobby Jindal, Rand Paul, Marco Rubio, Paul Ryan, and Scott Walker?

  • Jeb Bush 21% [18%] (12%) {14%} [11%] (13%) {15%} [12%]
  • Rand Paul 15% [13%] (12%) {16%} [17%] (16%) {14%} [17%]
  • Chris Christie 14% [17%] (23%) {16%} [14%] (13%) {15%} [15%]
  • Ted Cruz 13% [11%] (15%) {15%} [20%] (12%) {7%}
  • Paul Ryan 9% [9%] (11%) {11%} [10%] (13%) {9%} [12%]
  • Marco Rubio 8% [8%] (8%) {10%} [10%] (10%) {16%} [21%]
  • Scott Walker 5% [7%] (6%) [3%]
  • Bobby Jindal 5% [5%] (4%) {6%} [4%] (4%) {3%} [4%]
  • Someone else/Not sure 10% [11%] (10%) {8%} [9%] (13%) {15%} [10%]

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net} 

  • Mike Huckabee 62% [64%] (65%) (71%) {70%} [73%] (69%) / 18% [18%] (14%) (12%) {15%} [15%] (15%) {+44%}
  • Paul Ryan 58% [58%] {67%} [75%] (78%) {76%} [74%] (47%) / 17% [18%] {13%} [11%] (9%) {11%} [15%] (11%) {+41%} 
  • Rand Paul 56% [58%] (58%) {58%} [60%] (61%) {55%} [53%] (42%) / 17% [21%] (15%) {16%} [16%] (13%) {20%} [22%] (20%) {+39%}
  • Jeb Bush 53% [56%] (49%) {56%} [51%] (59%) {59%} [63%] (71%) / 21% [18%] (22%) {17%} [16%] (12%) {15%} [14%] (13%) {+32%}
  • Marco Rubio 46% {57%} [62%] (59%) {60%} [62%] (53%) / 19% {13%} [10%] (12%) {11%} [11%] (10%) {+27%}
  • Ted Cruz 43% [45%] (43%) {27%} / 20% [20%] (21%) {13%} {+23%}
  • Chris Christie 41% [40%] (47%) {42%} [41%] (42%) {44%} [49%] (62%) / 37% [38%] (29%) {29%} [29%] (27%) {29%} [28%] (12%) {+4%}
Survey of 542 Republican primary voters was conducted March 6-9, 2014.  The margin of error is +/- 4.2 percentage points.  Political ideology: 37% [39%] (39%) {42%} [37%] (40%) {38%} [35%] (41%) {39%} [38%] (41%) Somewhat conservative; 35% [37%] (34%) {34%} [39%] (35%) {36%} [39%] (41%) {37%} [39%] (36%) Very conservative; 21% [17%] (21%) {20%} [18%] (17%) {19%} [19%] (14%) {16%} [16%] (16%) Moderate; 6% [4%] (4%) {3%} [4%] (5%) {5%} [5%] (2%) {5%} [6%] (4%) Somewhat liberal; 1% [3%] (2%) {2%} [1%] (3%) {2%} [1%] (1%) {2%} [1%] (3%) Very liberal. Results from the poll conducted January 23-26, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted December 13-15, 2013 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted October 29-31, 2013 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted September 25-26, 2013 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted July 19-21, 2013 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted May 6-9, 2013 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted March 27-30, 2013 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted January 31 – February 3, 2013 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted January 3-6, 2013 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted November 30 – December 2, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 12-15, 2012 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 12:49 pm. Filed under 2016, Jeb Bush, Mike Huckabee, Poll Watch

February 1, 2014

Poll Watch: Quinnipiac Florida 2016 Presidential Survey

Quinnipiac Florida 2016 Presidential Poll

  • Hillary Clinton (D) 49% {47%} [50%] (51%)
  • Jeb Bush (R) 43% {45%} [43%] (40%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 51% {50%} [53%] (52%)
  • Marco Rubio (R) 41% {43%} [41%] (41%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 52% {50%}
  • Paul Ryan (R) 39% {42%}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 53% {51%}
  • Rand Paul (R) 38% {41%}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 51% {45%}
  • Chris Christie (R) 35% {41%}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 54% {52%}
  • Ted Cruz (R) 34% {36%}

(more…)

by @ 12:00 pm. Filed under 2016, Hillary Clinton, Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, Poll Watch

Poll Watch: Quinnipiac Florida 2016 Republican Primary Survey

Quinnipiac Florida 2016 GOP Primary Poll

  • Jeb Bush 25% (22%)
  • Marco Rubio 16% (18%)
  • Rand Paul 11% (9%)
  • Chris Christie 9% (14%)
  • Ted Cruz 9% (12%)
  • Paul Ryan 5% (6%)
  • Scott Walker 5% (2%)
  • Bobby Jindal 3% (3%)

Among Men

  • Jeb Bush 23% (21%)
  • Marco Rubio 16% (17%)
  • Rand Paul 14% (13%)
  • Ted Cruz 10% (14%)
  • Chris Christie 9% (11%)
  • Scott Walker 8% (4%)
  • Paul Ryan 5% (6%)
  • Bobby Jindal 3% (4%)

Among Women

  • Jeb Bush 26% (23%)
  • Marco Rubio 16% (20%)
  • Chris Christie 9% (17%)
  • Rand Paul 8% (5%)
  • Ted Cruz 7% (9%)
  • Paul Ryan 6% (6%)
  • Bobby Jindal 3% (2%)
  • Scott Walker 3% (1%)

Survey of 586 Republican voters was conducted January 22-27, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 4.1 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted November 12-17, 2013 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 4:00 am. Filed under 2016, Jeb Bush, Poll Watch

January 31, 2014

State of the 2016 Presidential Field

With President’s Obama’s popularity waning, and with his promise of a transformational presidency long ago thwarted by his own inability to turn around the nation’s economy or enact a bold legislative agenda, eyes are beginning to turn towards potential presidential candidates on both sides of the aisle as Americans commence the search for a leader to move the nation forward and renew its sense of optimism.

On the Democratic side, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton leads her fellow Democrats by several laps, with even sitting Vice President Joe Biden polling well behind the seeming Hillary juggernaut. Given Mrs. Clinton’s popularity due to memories of her husband’s “Golden Age” economy, the contest for the Democratic nomination in 2016 may very well become a coronation. And though she currently leads all potential Republican presidential candidates in early polls of the general election, the aging Secretary of State is now tied not only to her popular husband’s Administration, but to the unpopular Obama Administration. It remains to be seen whether Mrs. Clinton can appeal to the American center the way her husband did, or the way she briefly did during her populist 2008 presidential campaign.

Meanwhile, the Republican field appears to be full of moving parts. In the wake of his re-election last year to the New Jersey governorship, Gov. Chris Christie appeared to be the frontrunner for 2016 due to his panache and charisma and his independent streak, all of which would theoretically allow the governor to sell the GOP message to the sorts of swing voters that Republicans will need in order to snag the White House in 2016. But “Bridge-gate” has hit Christie where it hurts, and with questions raised about the governor’s ethics in its wake, public support for Christie, both in New Jersey and nationally, is waning.

With Christie’s fall leaving an opening for another Republican candidate who could potentially garner non-traditional Republican voters, buzz began to circulate that former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee was considering yet another presidential run. Gov. Huckabee, during his races in Arkansas, had previously demonstrated an ability to perform disproportionately well for a Republican among usually solidly Democratic African-American voters. Despite strong poll numbers, Huckabee’s recent foray back into the spotlight has already begun to open old wounds, as his use of the term “libido” in relation to women has given Democrats an opportunity to try and reignite the 2012 “War on Women” that damaged the prospects of Gov. Romney. It is possible that Gov. Huckabee, for generational reasons, is ill-equipped to run a presidential campaign in a world where every word that comes out of a politician’s mouth is now fair game for a “hashtag” on Twitter.

Meanwhile, the candidates of the Republican base, such as Sen. Ted Cruz and Sen. Rand Paul, continue to perform strongly among Republican voters, while faring poorly in a general election matchup against Hillary Clinton. Sen. Paul’s attempt to become a more mainstream carrier of his father’s message has earned him a place in the Senate and a following among Republicans, but has not given him the kind of national following needed to win the White House at this juncture. Sen. Paul’s potential to perform solidly in both Iowa and New Hampshire during the Republican primaries will make him a force to be reckoned with nonetheless. At the same time, Sen. Cruz is attempting to become the Tea Party candidate for the 2016 cycle, a position that will make for a strong primary campaign but that might not translate well to success in the general election.

Still other prominent candidates are attempting to thread the needle and become a candidate who can garner broad support while still being rooted in the traditional Republican base. Rep. Paul Ryan, currently doing well in polls of Republican primary voters, is one such candidate. While his prospects were dampened by a less than magnetic performance during his stint as vice presidential nominee in 2012, Ryan remains a young, smart, articulate candidate who has positions acceptable to the base and who has demonstrated an ability to win crossover voters in Wisconsin. Still, whether Ryan has the charisma necessary to go the distance nationally remains to be seen. Sen. Marco Rubio once sought to fill the same position, but his star seems to have faded recently, as his positions on immigration reform put him at odds with the GOP base without doing him much good in the political center.

As such, the GOP field remains wide open for other entrants hoping to both garner the nomination and become the nation’s 45th president. One name beginning to surface is that of former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush. A popular executive in the state of Florida, Gov. Bush positioned himself during the last presidential cycle as a reasonable Republican who understands that the concerns of most voters are not necessarily on the same page as the “playbooks” of today’s Beltway political consultants. At least one poll has shown Gov. Bush holding Mrs. Clinton under 50% in a general election matchup in the all important state of Florida, and another poll shows only a two point gap between the two nationally. Moreover, Gov. Bush leads, or ties for the lead, in two recent polls of the Republican field, and has the potential to become the “establishment candidate” should he enter the race, a powerful position in a Republican presidential primary.

While many observers question the wisdom of another candidate named Bush leading the GOP ticket, the dynastic issues that would normally arise from a Bush nomination would be cancelled out by the nomination of Hillary Clinton to head the Democratic ticket. And while Mr. Bush would turn 63 in 2016, Mrs. Clinton will turn 69 that same year, meaning that both candidates will be Baby Boomers and neither will have a clear claim to Generations X or Y. And while Mr. Bush does not exude charisma, he does exude competence and statesman-like qualities, similar to Mrs. Clinton, and comes across as eminently reasonable for voters looking for a sober alternative to continued Democratic rule.

At this early juncture, though, anything could still happen. If a young, interesting candidate with potentially broad-based appeal, such as Gov. Susana Martinez of New Mexico, were to jump into the race, the dynamics of the race could change entirely. As would those dynamics change if Mrs. Clinton decided not to run. The reality is that the landscape of 2016, while coming into focus, is anything but certain.

July 31, 2013

Way Too Early 2016 POWER RANKINGS

1. Chris Christie, Governor of New Jersey

Gov. Chris Christie is the frontrunner for the GOP nomination based on everything we know about past nominating trends. He has tremendous establishment support, mega donors already committed to him should he run after having nearly convinced him to jump into the 2012 race, and favorable/unfavorable ratings that would be the envy of every other candidate, including Hillary Clinton. The governor is the most popular Republican in America, and after an easy reelection and a tour as RGA chairman, he will be poised to enter the race with a national base of support and poll numbers that will make even the Clinton machine nervous.

2. Marco Rubio, U.S. Senator from Florida

Despite the setback immigration reform has become for the Florida senator among the conservative base, Marco Rubio is still well positioned to be the party’s standard bearer in 2016. He has picked up tremendous backing in establishment circles for going all-in on immigration, and the donor community will reward his risk.  He also remains one of the most gifted speakers in politics and once he’s back on the stump many will remember why they liked him so much the first time around.

3. Rand Paul, U.S. Senator from Kentucky

The junior senator from Kentucky has quickly establishment himself in the early states as the Tea Party candidate, building off of his father’s network of supporters and benefiting from their takeover of a number of local and state GOP parties. Paul has worked to distance himself from his father’s more extreme elements, but he still has some work to do as his recent “southern avenger” staffer problem pointed out.

4. Paul Ryan, U.S. Representative from Wisconsin

If any candidate can claim “next in line” status from the 2012 election, it will be Rep. Paul Ryan, not former Sen. Rick Santorum. Ryan is still a very popular figure in conservative circles, and fears over how his budget would be portrayed never really panned out. Ryan would have the advantage of having been in a national campaign before and would likely have access to Mitt Romney’s formidable donor base.

5. Jeb Bush,  former Governor of Florida

The scion of the Bush dynasty may finally be ready to jump into the presidential pool. Gov. Bush has been far more open to a run this time than he has the past two cycles, and with his brother’s poll numbers finally on the rise, he may take his shot to become the third President Bush. Still, Bush will find that unlike his brother, he will be unable to clear the field of opposition, and he will come across a Tea Party base more than willing to take on the Bush legacy. Jeb will need every bit of his family’s extensive network to survive the challenge.

6. Scott Walker, Governor of Wisconsin

The governor of Wisconsin has become a folk hero to many in the conservative base for his heroic stand against public sector unions in his state. The left’s attempt to recall Scott Walker not only backfired, but helped the governor build a national donor base that may be even larger than Chris Christie’s. Walker will have real conservative governance to run on, as well as a record of being battle-tested against the left’s best attacks.

7. Ted Cruz, U.S. Senator from Texas

The junior senator from Texas has quickly made a name for himself after taking office just a few months ago. The Harvard Law graduate and former debating champion is putting his skills to use antagonizing both the Democrats and establishment Republicans, winning plaudits from Tea Party groups and scorn from Beltway elites. Sen. Cruz has the combination of brains and toughness that could make him an ideal Tea Party insurgent in 2016.

8. Mike Pence, Governor of Indiana

The former congressman has quietly gone about his new job, replacing popular Gov. Mitch Daniels, and continuing conservative reforms in the state. While only recently elected governor, Pence has a dozen years in Congress already under his belt and several years more as a talk radio host helped mold him into an excellent communicator. He was nearly recruited to run in 2012, but chose the governorship instead. By 2016, Pence could bridge the divide between fiscal and social conservatives and become a major dark horse candidate.

9. John Kasich, Governor of Ohio

Ohio Gov. John Kasich flirted with a presidential campaign back in 1999, but was quickly overwhelmed by the daunting Bush machine. After twenty years in Congress, Kasich became governor of Ohio, and after initial troubles, has turned both his numbers and the state’s economy around. Should he win reelection in 2014, Kasich could once again look at a presidential run, this time as not only a fiscal hawk, but also the leader of the most important swing state.

10. Bobby Jindal, Governor of Louisiana

The governor of Louisana has seen his star fade somewhat over the past few years. Originally pegged to be the GOP’s counter to Barack Obama, Gov. Jindal flopped in his national debut giving the State of the Union response. Far from being a mortal wound, the governor had plenty of time to rebound from a bad speech. However, a poorly thought out tax reform plan in his state has led to a collapse in his numbers. He still has the brains, talent, and time to rebound, and he will need to in order to launch the national campaign he clearly wants to run.

Honorable Mention:  Susana Martinez, Mike Huckabee, Rick Santorum, Rick Perry, Kelly Ayotte, Nikki Haley

June 30, 2013

The Specularazzi Go Hyper-Forward To 2016

We remain only in the first year of the second term of Barack Obama’s presidency, and the media specularazzi are already churning in predictions and conclusions. It seems, in recent cycles, it always to go this way with breathless prognostications, meaningless polls, and reports of instant political “nosedives”of frontrunners and other presidential hopefuls.

On the Democratic side, the race has been declared “over” by virtually all the specularazzi, i.e., that Hillary Clinton already has the nomination in her handbag, and thus no more need be said. The fact that the identical conclusion was reached by consensus in 2006, and did not come to pass, seems to be of no import to the specularazzi. Of course, Mrs. Clinton has “total” name recognition, and it has been declared that it’s “her turn”by her old supporters. She will, of course, be nearly 70 years old in 2016, her record as secretary of state now judged to be “controversial” and uneven at best. She is a poor public speaker, and has no distinction as an administrator. Nevertheless, she is “inevitable.” Fast-forwarding is so much fun, is it not?

By the way, I wonder if Andrew Cuomo, Mark Warner, Evan Bayh, Cory Booker, Heidi Heitkamp, Joe Manchin, Ron Wyden and other talented younger Democrats are so willing to throw in the towel this far in advance. Perhaps. Perhaps not.

On the Republican side, there is more debate. Early favorite Senator Marco Rubio has gambled big-time on immigration reform legislation that is very unpopular with many in the GOP grass roots. Likewise, high profile New Jersey Governor Chris Christie has been declared to have “crossed the line” with his handling of a U.S. senate vacancy and his “moderate” views. The new darling on the right is first-term Texas Senator Ted Cruz, an outspoken and smart conservative who seems to be filling a temporary political void. Concurrent with the seeming decline of Mr. Rubio, there has been a revival of the only man in recent U.S. history who has been disqualified for the presidency solely because of his surname, i.e., former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, a man with genuine accomplishments, proven intelligence and, oh yes, all kinds of Hispanic credentials.

Of course, the Republicans also have a stable of old war horses, including Rick Perry, Mike Huckabee, Rick Santorum, et al, but unlike 2008 and 2012, there are none who might legitimately claim that it’s ”their turn.”

As I see it, Governor Christie, Senator Cruz and former Governor Bush, albeit with differing points of view, are rather talented fellows, and should make the 2016 contest (when we finally get to it) rather interesting.

In 2005, by the way, hardly anyone had heard of the person who swept to election as president only three years later.

_______________________________________________________________________________

Copyright (c) 2013 by Barry Casselman.   All rights reserved.

March 5, 2013

Bush Changing Tune Again on Path to Citizenship?

WaPo characterizes Bush’s statements in an interview with NBC News’ Chuck Todd as such:

Visit NBCNews.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy


Allahpundit, however, is not so sure:

WaPo’s selling this as a semi-reversal of yesterday’s full reversal on citizenship for illegals, but I’m not sure that’s true. Watch the clip below (via Think Progress). He’s not saying that he’s suddenly changed his mind and now prefers citizenship to permanent residency. He’s saying that, hypothetically, if you could grant citizenship without creating a huge incentive for more people to cross the border, he’d be okay with that. Since there’s no way to do that, though, he’s sticking with the permanent residency option.

What do you think? Have at it in the comments.

by @ 11:28 am. Filed under Jeb Bush

March 4, 2013

Jeb Bush on 2016: “I Have a Voice”




Here’s what Allahpundit has to say about Bush’s about-face on a pathway to citizenship for illegals, which comes earlier on in the interview:

Is there any obvious explanation for this reversal besides him watching Rubio roll out the Senate bipartisan bill, suddenly realizing that his 2016 niche on immigration had now been filled by a younger, more charismatic candidate, and then repositioning himself as moderately hawkish on this issue in order to gain a second look from conservatives? This shift has to be electorally-driven because there’s no way his new plan — allowing illegals to apply for permanent residency but not citizenship — will ever be accepted as policy.

by @ 2:02 pm. Filed under 2016, Jeb Bush

February 13, 2013

Poll Watch: Fox News 2016 Presidential Survey

Fox News 2012 Presidential Poll

I’m going to read you a list of names and for each one I’d like you to please tell me if you think that person would make a good president or not. If you have never heard of a person, please just say so. 

Hillary Clinton

  • Yes 55%
  • No 42%

Condoleezza Rice

  • Yes 43%
  • No 43%

Chris Christie

  • Yes 37%
  • No 33%

Paul Ryan

  • Yes 37%
  • No 46%

Joe Biden

  • Yes 35%
  • No 59%

Jeb Bush

  • Yes 26%
  • No 56%

Marco Rubio

  • Yes 25%
  • No 29%

Bobby Jindal

  • Yes 16%
  • No 25%

Andrew Cuomo

  • Yes 16%
  • No 39%

Deval Patrick

  • Yes 6%
  • No 19%

Bob McDonnell

  • Yes 6%
  • No 22%

Martin O’Malley

  • Yes 5%
  • No 18%

Survey of 1,010 registered voters was conducted by Anderson Robbins Research (D)/Shaw & Company Research (R) February 4-6, 2013. The margin of error is ± 3 percentage points.  Party ID: 39% Democrat; 35% Republican; 24% Independent/Other.

Inside the numbers:

Clinton (62 percent) and Rice (44 percent) capture more support among women voters than any of the other figures tested.

They are also the top picks among men voters: 47 percent think Clinton would make a good president and 42 percent feel that way about Rice. Ryan (40 percent), Christie (39 percent) and Biden (35 percent) are close behind among men.

Clinton is also the candidate who receives the highest level of support from his or her own party. She would be a good president in the eyes of 83 percent of self-identified Democrats, while with 62 percent support Ryan receives the most backing among self-described Republicans.

Among Democrats, Clinton is followed by Biden (60 percent), Cuomo (25 percent), Patrick (8 percent) and O’Malley (6 percent).

Among Republicans, Rice comes in second to Ryan at 54 percent. She’s followed closely by Bush at 47 percent, Christie at 43 percent and Rubio at 41 percent. Jindal is the only other Republican to receive double-digit support (24 percent).

Ryan (59 percent) and Rice (55 percent) both receive majority backing among self-described very conservative voters.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

November 26, 2012

Jeb Refuses to Rule Out 2016 Run

Robert Costa has the story at NRO:

Washington, D.C. — Former Florida governor Jeb Bush met Monday with a group of his former staffers at the J. W. Marriott hotel on Pennsylvania Avenue, just steps from the White House. Bush, a potential 2016 presidential contender, spent an hour in the hotel’s Cannon room, reminiscing and entertaining questions about his political future.

In an interview with NRO, Bush did not rule out a presidential run. “I am here to catch up with folks and promote education reform,” he said, smiling.

When asked again whether he will issue a Sherman-type statement about his future, Bush remained coy. “We have an alumni group that I like keeping in touch with,” he said. “I’m here to focus on educational reform, and that’s what I’m going to tell people.”

Be sure to read the full story here.

by @ 7:29 pm. Filed under Jeb Bush

November 24, 2012

Are You Ready for Jeb 2016? + Overnight Open Forum

Per The New York Times:

…a decision by Mr. Bush, 59, to seek the Republican nomination would almost certainly halt any plans by Mr. Rubio, 41, to do so or abruptly set off a new intraparty feud.

Mr. Bush is said by friends to be weighing financial and family considerations — between so many years in office and the recession his wealth took a dip, they said, and he has been working hard to restore it — as well as the complicated place within the Republican Party of the Bush brand. Asked this week about whether his father would run, Jeb Bush Jr. told CNN, “I certainly hope so.”

For now, however, “It’s neither a ‘no’ nor a ‘yes’ — it’s a ‘wait and see,’ ” said Al Cardenas, the chairman of the American Conservative Union and a longtime friend and adviser to Mr. Bush. “It continues to intrigue him, given how much he has to share with the country.”

Full story here.

And as always, have at it in the comments!

by @ 12:55 am. Filed under 2016, Jeb Bush

November 10, 2012

National Journal 2016 Insiders Poll: Bush and Rubio Strongest Potential GOP Nominees

Democratic insiders chose Jeb Bush as the GOP strongest nominee, while Republican insiders selected Marco Rubio:

Who would be the strongest Republican presidential nominee in 2016?

Democrats (91 votes)

  • Jeb Bush 47%
  • Chris Christie 28%
  • Marco Rubio 13%
  • Susana Martinez 2%
  • Rick Santorum 2%
  • Bobby Jindal 1%
  • Paul Ryan 1%
  • Rand Paul 0%

Republicans (88 votes)

  • Marco Rubio 40%
  • Jeb Bush 27%
  • Paul Ryan 9%
  • Rick Santorum 9%
  • Chris Christie 8%
  • Bobby Jindal 3%
  • Susana Martinez 2%
  • Rand Paul 0%

Full story here.

by @ 11:29 am. Filed under 2016, Chris Christie, Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, Paul Ryan, Poll Watch

August 7, 2012

More Convention Speakers Announced Including Santorum

Reuters has the story:

Wolfeboro, New Hampshire (Reuters) – Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney’s most bitter rival for his party’s nomination has agreed to speak at the nominating convention in Tampa, Florida, later this month.

Rick Santorum, the former presidential candidate who lobbed harsh criticism at Romney during some bitter primary contests, will join a host of other big-name Republicans as headline speakers, according to Republican sources.

Former Florida Governor Jeb Bush will also speak at the convention, along with Oklahoma Governor Mary Fallin and Tea Party hero and Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky.

So add Rick Santorum, Jeb Bush, Mary Fallin, and Rand Paul to the list.

by @ 7:15 am. Filed under Conventions, Jeb Bush, Rick Santorum

March 22, 2012

Jeb Bush: Romney Should Pick Marco Rubio as Running Mate

Salena Zito, for the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, has the story:

Bush, 59, the son of a president and brother of another, pushed aside any interest in running with Romney. But he has strong feelings on whom he wants Romney to pick as a running mate.

“Marco Rubio,” he said of the freshman Florida GOP senator, who served as a volunteer on Bush’s governor’s campaign. Bush described Rubio, 40, as “dynamic, joyful, disciplined and principled.”

“He is the best orator of American politics today, a good family man. He is not only a consistent conservative, but he has managed to find a way to communicate a conservative message full of hope and optimism,” Bush said.

Be sure to read the rest of the story here.

by @ 12:35 am. Filed under Jeb Bush, Veep Watch

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