December 18, 2014

And Now the Spotlight Is On Christie

The Wall Street Journal reports:

Jeb Bush’s move to actively explore a 2016 White House bid is likely to complicate the path for fellow Republican Chris Christie and pressure the New Jersey governor to shore up donor support as he considers his own campaign.

Mr. Christie has spoken with a range of donors in recent weeks, according to people familiar with his conversations, among them billionaire backer Ken Langone. Mr. Christie has indicated in those talks that Mr. Bush’s entry alone wouldn’t keep him from the race, those people said.

The second-term governor hasn’t been as overt about hiring potential campaign staff as some other possible 2016 GOP contenders. But some political analysts said Mr. Christie should quickly move to convince senior staff and top donors that he is serious, or risk losing their support to Mr. Bush, a former Florida governor who is expected to appeal to a similar part of the electorate.

Christie had stated earlier that he would announce his 2016 intentions in early 2015. He may have to announce sooner than he wanted.

Jeb Bush’s announcement that he is seriously in the race has really put the pressure on Christie and anyone else hoping to run with “Establishment” support. Jeb Bush can now begin openly recruiting staff and lining up donors.

When it comes to quality staff and to a lesser extent the donors, the phrase, “First come, first served”, applies more often than it doesn’t. The top resources want to get in on the ground floor of the winner’s campaign as quickly as possible. This means if you hope to be a top tier candidate, you have to be one of the first to announce if you want any chance at getting the best of the best behind you. Any latecomers have to be content with fighting over the leftovers.

That is why the Bush announcement is a major “fish or cut bait” signal. Anybody sitting on their hands while Bush nails down all the key operatives and donors will enter the race greatly handicapped. This hard, cold, cruel fact of life applies even to fairy tale “white knights” who plan on showing up (as Bullwinkle J. Moose put it), “in the — Ta-da! — nick of time“, to save the day.

If that “White Knight” doesn’t have top-drawer staff and donor money to back him up (which he can’t have because the candidates who’ve been in the race for months already have them tied down and committed to them instead of him), the results will bring to mind Princess Leia’s famous exasperated comment, “This is some rescue! You came in here, but didn’t you have a plan for getting out?”

 

by @ 10:43 am. Filed under Chris Christie, Jeb Bush

December 17, 2014

Bush is “Instant Frontrunner”, says Krauthammer

Conservative commentator Charles Krauthammer claims that Jeb Bush is an “Instant Frontrunner”.

I think it is a big deal because those who would be on his wing of the spectrum are going to have to rethink whether they are going to go up against Jeb Bush and how good of a chance they’re going to have. I think it will clear out some of his wing. As for the others, there are a lot of people who would otherwise be on the fringe. It would look like a free for all. It would look like the most open seat in the history of the presidency, so why not throw in your hat. And I think it will, because it creates an instant frontrunner, for good or for ill, it will discourage some of the fringe candidates

Well, maybe. Take a look at these two recent polls, one from the Washington Post, the other from Fox.

Washington Post Fox Poll
w/ Romney w/o Romney
Romney 20 Romney 19
Bush 10 Bush 13 Bush 10
Paul 9 Paul 11 Christie 8
Ryan 8 Ryan 10 Paul 8
Cruz 7 Cruz 9 Huckabee 8
Carson 6 Christie 8 Don’t Know 8
Christie 6 Carson 7 Walker 7
Huckabee 6 Huckabee 7 Carson 6
No Opinion 6 No Opinion 7 Ryan 6
Walker 5 Walker 6 Cruz 5
Perry 4 Perry 5 Rubio 4
Rubio 4 Rubio 5 Kasich 2
Jindal 3 Jindal 4 Perry 2
Kasich 2 Santorum 3 Jindal 1
Santorum 2 Kasich 2 Santorum 1
Other 0 None 0 Other 0
None 2 Other 2 None 2

Bush leads nobody by more than two ppts in either poll — with or without Romney. I don’t know about you, but I have difficulty thinking of someone as a “frontrunner” whose lead is less than the Margin of Error of the poll.

One thing that jumps out at me from either of these polls is the really poor showing of Rick Santorum. These early polls tend to be mainly about name recognition; we all know that. Now remember that Santorum finished the last race solidly in second place. Name recognition should not be a problem for him. So people should know him, and yet his position still sucks.

He has been making noises about running again. Maybe he should save himself some aggravation and a whole lot of money and not bother.

Poll Watch: Fox News 2016 Presidential Survey

Fox News 2016 Presidential Poll

  • Hillary Clinton (D) 49% {52%} [51%] (51%)
  • Jeb Bush (R) 42% {39%} [42%] (38%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 51% {52%} [51%]
  • Rand Paul (R) 40% {41%} [42%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 52% {50%} [50%] (49%)
  • Chris Christie (R) 40% {40%} [42%] (38%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 53% {54%}
  • John Kasich (R) 37% {35%}

National survey of 1,043 registered voters was conducted July 20-22, 2014 under the joint direction of Anderson Robbins Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R). The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points. Party ID: 41% {43%} [39%] (40%) Democrat; 39% {35%} [38%] (34%) Republican; 18% {18%} [20%] (23%) Independent/Other. Results from the poll conducted July 20-22, 2014are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 13-15, 2014 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 2-4, 2014 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 10:09 am. Filed under 2016, Chris Christie, Herman Cain, Jeb Bush, John Kasich, Poll Watch, Rand Paul

December 16, 2014

More On The Latest McClatchy – Marist Poll

The lastest McClatchy-Marist Poll has been posted already, yet there is still some information to be gleaned from it. For example, on the question to Republicans as to which possible 2016 GOP candidate they would favor:

w/ Romney   w/o Romney
Romney 19 Undecided 18
Bush 14 Bush 16
Undecided 13 Huckabee 12
Christie 9 Christie 10
Huckabee 9 Carson 8
Carson 8 Ryan 7
Paul 5 Paul 6
Cruz 4 Cruz 5
Perry 4 Perry 5
Ryan 3 Rubio 3
Santorum 3 Walker 3
Rubio 3 Kasich 3
Walker 3 Santorum 3
Kasich 2 Jindal 1
Jindal 1 Fiorina 1
Fiorina 1

Note that Bush comes in second whether Romney is included or not. With Romney, Romney is in first place. Without Romney, Undecided leads the pack.

Also notice that Christie is always fourth behind Undecided, Bush, and either Romney or Huckabee. I’m not seeing a real big mandate for Christie here. That’s really not much of a vote of confidence in Christie trying to run as the “Establishment” choice.

With Bush essentially throwing his hat into the ring, that pretty much slams the door on Christie, Rubio, and any other candidate wishing for the backing of the “Establishment”. Perry comes to mind. The only other candidate who would stand a chance is Romney, but Bush’s announcement pretty much closes the door on any Romney 2016 run. Why?

  • One, the “Establishment” likes to consolidate behind their candidate as quickly as possible. If Romney were to run, he’d have to announce before the year is out. He’d then appear as the spoiler, and the “Establishment” doesn’t like spoilers. He’d have to provide very good reasons why they shouldn’t back Bush, and I don’t think Mitt could do that.
  • Two, Bush could crash and burn, and the establishment would go looking for a white knight. This highly unlikely scenario only happens in the movies. Bush would really, REALLY have to screw up before that happened.

So Romney is about 99.9% likely NOT to run.

BREAKING: Jeb Bush announces he is exploring a run for president.

Jeb Bush announces his intentions on his Facebook page:

Merry Christmas and Happy Hanukkah!

Like many of you, our family was blessed with the opportunity to gather together over the recent Thanksgiving holiday.

Columba and I are so proud of the wonderful adults our children have become, and we loved spending time with our three precious grandchildren.

We shared good food and watched a whole lotof football.

We also talked about the future of our nation. As a result of these conversations and thoughtful consideration of the kind of strong leadership I think America needs, I have decided to actively explore the possibility of running for President of the United States.

In January, I also plan to establish a Leadership PAC that will help me facilitate conversations with citizens across America to discuss the most critical challenges facing our exceptional nation. The PAC’s purpose will be to support leaders, ideas and policies that will expand opportunity and prosperity for all Americans.

In the coming months, I hope to visit with many of you and have a conversation about restoring the promise of America.

Best wishes to you and your families for a happy holiday season. I’ll be in touch soon.

Onward,

Jeb Bush

 

by @ 9:11 am. Filed under 2016, Jeb Bush

Poll Watch: McClatchy-Marist 2016 Republican Nomination Survey

McClatchy-Marist 2016 GOP Nomination Poll

  • Jeb Bush 16% (15%) {13%} [13%] (8%) {8%} [10%] (10%)
  • Mike Huckabee 12% [13%] (13%)
  • Chris Christie 10% (12%) {13%} [12%] (13%) {16%} [18%] (15%)
  • Ben Carson 8%
  • Paul Ryan 7% (13%) {9%} [12%] (9%) {12%} [11%] (13%)
  • Rand Paul 6% (13%) {7%} [12%] (9%) {9%} [12%] (9%)
  • Ted Cruz 5% (4%) {10%} [4%] (5%) {5%} [10%] (7%)
  • Rick Perry 5% (7%) {7%} [3%] (2%) {6%} [3%] (4%)
  • Marco Rubio 3% (6%) {9%} [7%] (12%) {7%} [7%] (12%)
  • Scott Walker 3% (3%) {4%} [5%] (7%) {4%} [4%] (2%)
  • John Kasich 3%
  • Rick Santorum 3% (3%) {3%} [3%] (2%) {5%} [4%] (2%)
  • Bobby Jindal 1% (4%) {2%} [4%] {3%} (1%)
  • Carly Fiorina 1%
  • Undecided 18% (21%) {23%} [14%] (12%) {25%} [13%] (25%)

Among Republicans

  • Jeb Bush 17% (14%) {17%} [14%] (11%) {9%} [11%]
  • Mike Huckabee 12% [13%] (15%)
  • Chris Christie 11% (14%) {10%} [14%] (13%) {17%} [17%]
  • Paul Ryan 7% (15%) {11%} [12%] (8%) {12%} [13%]
  • Ben Carson 6%
  • Rick Perry 6% (8%) {4%} [4%] (3%) {7%} [2%]
  • Ted Cruz 5% (2%) {9%} [3%] (5%) {5%} [10%]
  • Rand Paul 4% (10%) {6%} [8%] (7%) {10%} [8%]
  • Rick Santorum 3% (2%) {3%} [2%] (1%) {7%} [4%]
  • John Kasich 2%
  • Marco Rubio 2% (6%) {10%} [7%] (12%) {5%} [5%]
  • Scott Walker 2% (3%) {5%} [4%] (5%) {3%} [5%]
  • Bobby Jindal 1% (3%) {1%} [3%] {2%}
  • Carly Fiorina 0%
  • Undecided 20% (23%) {24%} [16%] (13%) {24%} [16%]

Among Independents

  • Jeb Bush 14% (17%) {8%} [11%] (4%) {6%} [9%]
  • Ben Carson 11%
  • Mike Huckabee 11% [12%] (9%)
  • Rand Paul 9% (19%) {8%} [19%] (14%) {8%} [20%]
  • Chris Christie 8% (7%) {16%} [8%] (14%) {14%} [20%]
  • Marco Rubio 7% (5%) {6%} [8%] (11%) {10%} [9%]
  • Paul Ryan 6% (9%) {7%} [12%] (11%) {13%} [8%]
  • Scott Walker 5% (2%) {2%} [7%] (8%) {5%} [3%]
  • John Kasich 4%
  • Ted Cruz 4% (8%) {12%} [5%] (5%) {6%} [11%]
  • Carly Fiorina 3%
  • Bobby Jindal 2% (6%) {5%} [4%] {4%}
  • Rick Perry 2% (5%) {11%} [0%] (0%) {4%} [3%]
  • Rick Santorum 2% (4%) {4%} [5%] (2%) {3%} [3%]
  • Undecided 12% (17%) {21%} [9%] (10%) {26%} [8%]

Among Men

  • Jeb Bush 22% (15%) {11%} [14%] (6%) {7%} [10%] (14%)
  • Mike Huckabee 10% [11%] (10%)
  • Ben Carson 8%
  • Chris Christie 7% (10%) {15%} [10%] (13%) {19%} [20%] (17%)
  • Rand Paul 7% (15%) {8%} [14%] (11%) {12%} [15%] (9%)
  • Rick Perry 7% (6%) {8%} [1%] (3%) {6%} [4%] (6%)
  • Paul Ryan 6% (17%) {11%} [11%] (10%) {11%} [9%] (12%)
  • Ted Cruz 6% (5%) {16%} [4%] (6%) {6%} [12%] (7%)
  • John Kasich 4%
  • Scott Walker 4% (2%) {4%} [6%] (10%) {5%} [4%] (2%)
  • Marco Rubio 3% (5%) {7%} [5%] (11%) {9%} [6%] (16%)
  • Carly Fiorina 2%
  • Rick Santorum 2% (3%) {3%} [4%] (2%) {6%} [1%] (1%)
  • Bobby Jindal 1% (5%) {4%} [4%] {3%} (1%)
  • Undecided 10% (17%) {14%} [13%] (10%) {16%} [11%] (15%)

Among Women

  • Chris Christie 13% (14%) {11%} [14%] (14%) {13%} [16%](13%)
  • Mike Huckabee 13% [14%] (16%)
  • Jeb Bush 11% (14%) {15%} [11%] (11%) {9%} [10%] (6%)
  • Paul Ryan 8% (8%) {7%} [12%] (7%) {13%} [13%] (14%)
  • Ben Carson 7%
  • Rand Paul 4% (11%) {6%} [10%] (7%) {7%} [9%] (8%)
  • Ted Cruz 4% (3%) {5%} [3%] (3%) {5%} [9%] (6%)
  • Marco Rubio 3% (7%) {10%} [9%] (13%) {5%} [8%] (8%)
  • Rick Santorum 3% (3%) {4%} [2%] (1%) {5%} [6%] (4%)
  • John Kasich 2%
  • Rick Perry 2% (8%) {6%} [4%] (1%) {6%} [1%] (2%)
  • Scott Walker 2% (3%) {4%} [3%] (3%) {2%} [4%] (2%)
  • Bobby Jindal 1% (3%) {1%} [4%] {3%} (1%)
  • Carly Fiorina 0%
  • Undecided 25% (26%) {30%} [14%] (14%) {33%} [15%] (34%)

Survey of 360 registered Republicans and GOP-leaning Independents was conducted December 3-9, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 5.2 percentage points. Party ID: 70% (67%) {57%} [63%] (64%) {65%} [62%] (65%) Republican; 30% (33%) {43%} [37%] (36%) {35%} [38%] (35%) Independent. Results from the poll conducted September 24-29, 2014 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted August 4-7, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted April 7-10, 2014 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 4-9, 2014 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted January 12-14, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted December 3-5, 2013 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 15-18, 2013 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 4:00 am. Filed under 2016, Jeb Bush, Poll Watch, Republican Party

December 15, 2014

Poll Watch: PPP (D) North Carolina 2016 Presidential Survey

PPP (D) North Carolina 2016 Presidential Poll

  • Ben Carson (R) 44%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 44%
  • Jeb Bush (R) 46% [45%] (42%) {44%} [42%] (44%) {46%} [43%] (44%) {45%} [43%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 46% [43%] (46%) {45%} [45%] (45%) {47%} [47%] (46%) {46%} [47%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 44% [45%] (45%) {45%} [44%] (46%) {46%} [45%] (42%) {42%} [43%]
  • Chris Christie (R) 42% [38%] (38%) {41%} [40%] (44%) {42%} [42%] (43%) {45%} [46%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 46% [45%] (45%) {46%} [47%] (48%) {49%} [48%]
  • Mike Huckabee (R) 44% [46%] (44%) {43%} [43%] (43%) {42%} [43%]
  • Ben Carson (R) 45%
  • Joe Biden (D) 40%
  • Jeb Bush (R) 47%
  • Joe Biden (D) 42%
  • Ben Carson (R) 44%
  • Elizabeth Warren (D) 37%
  • Jeb Bush (R) 46%
  • Elizabeth Warren (D) 39%

Among Independents

  • Ben Carson (R) 42%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 32%
  • Jeb Bush (R) 46% [39%] (43%) {45%} [40%] (45%) {38%} [35%] (41%) {44%} [41%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 38% [36%] (39%) {35%} [33%] (39%) {46%} [50%] (36%) {37%} [40%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 36% [36%] (37%) {36%} [36%] (38%) {39%} [47%] (33%) {31%} [31%]
  • Chris Christie (R) 33% [37%] (42%) {39%} [39%] (45%){38%} [33%] (39%) {50%} [46%]
  • Mike Huckabee (R) 41% [45%] (46%) {46%} [46%] (44%){34%} [36%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 38% [38%] (39%) {37%} [39%] (38%) {48%} [52%]
  • Ben Carson (R) 43%
  • Joe Biden (D) 28%
  • Jeb Bush (R) 44%
  • Joe Biden (D) 34%
  • Ben Carson (R) 41%
  • Elizabeth Warren (D) 28%
  • Jeb Bush (R) 42%
  • Elizabeth Warren (D) 29%

Among Moderates

  • Hillary Clinton (D) 52%
  • Ben Carson (R) 26%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 54% [57%] (59%) {55%} [57%] (60%) [58%] (58%) {59%} [61%]
  • Jeb Bush (R) 29% [29%] (27%) {30%} [23%] (29%) [25%] (25%) {30%} [26%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 52% [59%] (58%) {53%} [59%] (60%) [54%] (50%) {51%} [54%]
  • Chris Christie (R) 27% [26%] (28%) {30%} [18%] (31%) [31%] (32%) {32%} [36%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 54% [60%] (59%) {58%} [64%] (62%) [60%]
  • Mike Huckabee (R) 26% [31%] (28%) {25%} [21%] (28%) [25%]
  • Joe Biden (D) 46%
  • Ben Carson (R) 28%
  • Joe Biden (D) 55%
  • Jeb Bush (R) 28%
  • Elizabeth Warren (D) 41%
  • Ben Carson (R) 23%
  • Elizabeth Warren (D) 46%
  • Jeb Bush (R) 27%

Among Men

  • Ben Carson (R) 53%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 37%
  • Jeb Bush (R) 53% [51%] (48%) {51%} [47%] (50%) {49%} [46%] (49%) {51%} [46%] 
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 41% [36%] (39%) {39%} [39%] (42%) {42%} [45%] (41%) {38%} [42%]
  • Chris Christie (R) 49% [45%] (42%) {45%} [43%] (47%) {48%} [46%] (49%) {51%} [51%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 38% [38%] (39%) {41%} [39%] (42%) {40%} [41%] (37%) {35%} [37%]
  • Mike Huckabee (R) 51% [53%] (50%) {48%} [49%] (47%){44%} [46%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 39% [39%] (40%) {42%} [43%] (45%) {47%} [47%]
  • Ben Carson (R) 54%
  • Joe Biden (D) 35%
  • Jeb Bush (R) 52%
  • Joe Biden (D) 37%
  • Ben Carson (R) 54%
  • Elizabeth Warren (D) 30%
  • Jeb Bush (R) 54%
  • Elizabeth Warren (D) 32%

Among Women

  • Hillary Clinton (D) 51%
  • Ben Carson (R) 36%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 51% [50%] (52%) {49%} [50%] (49%) {50%} [49%] (51%) {53%} [52%]
  • Jeb Bush (R) 39% [40%] (37%) {39%} [38%] (39%) {43%} [41%] (38%) {39%} [40%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 50% [51%] (51%) {49%} [49%] (49%) {52%} [48%] (47%) {49%} [47%]
  • Chris Christie (R) 36% [33%] (35%) {37%} [36%] (42%) {37%} [38%] (38%) {40%} [42%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 51% [51%] (50%) {50%} [50%] (50%) {52%} [50%]
  • Mike Huckabee (R) 37% [40%] (38%) {38%} [38%] (40%) {41%} [41%]
  • Joe Biden (D) 45%
  • Ben Carson (R) 38%
  • Joe Biden (D) 46%
  • Jeb Bush (R) 42%
  • Elizabeth Warren (D) 44%
  • Ben Carson (R) 35%
  • Elizabeth Warren (D) 45%
  • Jeb Bush (R) 39%

Among Whites

  • Ben Carson (R) 56%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 32%
  • Jeb Bush (R) 57% [55%] (51%) {54%} [51%] (55%) {57%} [54%] (55%) {58%} [53%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 33% [33%] (38%) {35%} [39%] (37%) {35%} [37%] (34%) {35%} [37%]
  • Chris Christie (R) 54% [47%] (46%) {48%} [46%] (54%) {51%} [50%] (53%) {57%} [56%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 32% [35%] (37%) {35%} [39%] (37%) {36%} [36%] (32%) {30%} [33%]
  • Mike Huckabee (R) 57% [56%] (52%) {53%} [51%] (53%) {53%} [54%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 33% [35%] (37%) {35%} [39%] (38%) {37%} [38%]
  • Ben Carson (R) 57%
  • Joe Biden (D) 28%
  • Jeb Bush (R) 60%
  • Joe Biden (D) 30%
  • Ben Carson (R) 56%
  • Elizabeth Warren (D) 26%
  • Jeb Bush (R) 59%
  • Elizabeth Warren (D) 27%

Among Blacks

  • Hillary Clinton (D) 83%
  • Ben Carson (R) 9%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 83% [81%] (77%) {82%} [69%] (77%) {86%} [82%] (86%) {81%} [81%]
  • Jeb Bush (R) 12% [9%] (11%) {11%} [9%] (8%) {9%} [7%] (7%) {9%} [13%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 80% [84%] (78%) {82%} [68%] (78%) {80%} [78%] (79%) {81%} [77%]
  • Chris Christie (R) 9% [9%] (12%) {12%} [11%] (13%) {14%} [11%] (11%) {9%} [17%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 82% [83%] (76%) {86%} [78%] (80%) {89%} [82%]
  • Mike Huckabee (R) 6% [11%] (13%) {8%} [10%] (10%) {9%} [9%]
  • Joe Biden (D) 75%
  • Ben Carson (R) 11%
  • Joe Biden (D) 75%
  • Jeb Bush (R) 10%
  • Elizabeth Warren (D) 68%
  • Ben Carson (R) 9%
  • Elizabeth Warren (D) 69%
  • Jeb Bush (R) 7%

Survey of 823 registered voters was conducted December 4-7, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 3.4 percentage points. Party ID: 42% [45%] (42%) {43%} [42%] (42%) {42%} [39%] (43%) {43%} [45%] (43%) Democrat; 36% [34%] (31%) {36%} [35%] (36%) {35%} [34%] (33%) {34%} [33%] (34%) Republican; 22% [21%] (27%) {22%} [23%] (22%) {23%} [27%] (23%) {23%} [21%] (24%) Independent/Other.  Gender: 53% [53%] (53%) {53%} [53%] (53%) {53%} [53%] (53%) {53%} [54%] (57%) Women; 47% [47%] (47%) {47%} [47%] (47%) {47%} [47%] (47%) {47%} [46%] (43%) Men. Race: 72% [73%] (75%) {75%} [74%] (74%) {74%} [75%] (73%) {73%} [73%] (72%) White; 22% [20%] (20%) {20%} [20%] (20%) {20%} [20%] (21%) {21%} [20%] (22%) Black; 6% [7%] (5%) {5%} [6%] (6%) {6%} [5%] (6%) {6%} [6%] (6%) Other.  Results from the poll conducted September 11-14, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted August 14-17, 2014 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted June 12-15, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted May 9-11, 2014 are in square brackets.Results from the poll conducted April 3-6, 2014 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted March 6-9, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted February 6-9, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted January 9-12, 2014 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted December 5-8, 2013 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 8-11, 2013 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 11-14, 2013 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

December 14, 2014

Poll Watch: PPP (D) North Carolina 2016 Republican Primary Survey

PPP (D) North Carolina 2016 GOP Primary Poll

  • Ben Carson 19%
  • Jeb Bush 15% {17%} [15%] (18%) {12%} [15%] (14%) {15%} [16%] (9%)
  • Chris Christie 14% {12%} [9%] (12%) {15%} [11%] (17%) {19%} [20%] (10%)
  • Mike Huckabee 14% {17%} [19%] (22%) {19%} [20%] (15%)
  • Paul Ryan 11% {8%} [6%] (9%) {4%} [8%] (11%) {7%} [7%] (12%)
  • Rick Perry 7%
  • Ted Cruz 5% {12%} [17%] (12%) {14%} [8%] (11%) {12%} [12%]
  • Rand Paul 5% {12%} [15%] (9%) {12%} [14%] (14%) {13%} [12%] (6%)
  • Marco Rubio 4% {5%} [5%] (5%) {5%} [7%] (9%) {10%} [10%] (21%)
  • Someone else/Not sure 7% {11%} [9%] (6%) {12%} [9%] (13%) {11%} [13%] (8%)

Among Men

  • Ben Carson 20%
  • Chris Christie 18% {14%} [9%] (12%) {16%} [14%] (18%) {18%} [19%] (10%)
  • Mike Huckabee 13% {18%} [13%] (19%) {15%} [15%] (14%)
  • Paul Ryan 11% {7%} [7%] (8%) {3%} [5%] (10%) {5%} [6%] (12%)
  • Jeb Bush 11%{12%} [15%] {13%} [18%] (14%) {14%} [14%] (11%)
  • Rand Paul 7% {14%} [18%] (8%) {13%} [19%] (14%) {15%} [16%] (9%)
  • Ted Cruz 6% {12%} [19%] (16%) {16%} [7%] (14%) {15%} [16%]
  • Rick Perry 5%
  • Marco Rubio 2% {4%} [6%] (6%) {3%} [7%] (7%) {10%} [9%] (22%)
  • Someone else/Not sure 7% {11%} [7%] (4%) {12%} [6%] (9%) {7%} [10%] (7%)

Among Women

  • Jeb Bush 18% {23%} [15%] (21%) {11%} [13%] (13%) {16%} [18%] (8%)
  • Ben Carson 17%
  • Mike Huckabee 16% {16%} [26%] (24%) {24%} [25%] (16%)
  • Paul Ryan 11% {9%} [4%] (9%) {5%} [12%] (11%) {8%} [9%] (12%)
  • Chris Christie 9% {10%} [9%] (12%) {13%} [7%] (17%) {19%}[20%] (10%)
  • Rick Perry 8%
  • Marco Rubio 6% {5%} [4%] (5%) {7%} [7%] (11%) {10%} [10%] (19%)
  • Ted Cruz 4% {11%} [13%] (7%) {11%} [9%] (9%) {10%} [9%]
  • Rand Paul 3% {9%} [11%] (11%) {10%} [9%] (14%) {11%} [8%] (4%)
  • Someone else/Not sure 8% {10%} [10%] (7%) {14%} [13%] (17%) {15%} [17%] (10%)

Survey of 390 Republican primary voters was conducted December 4-7, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 5.0 percentage points. Political ideology: 39% {40%} [45%] (39%) {37%} [35%] (38%) {37%} [36%] (44%) Very conservative; 38% {37%} [35%] (32%) {35%} [33%] (40%) {39%} [36%] (35%) Somewhat conservative; 18% {20%} [13%] (21%) {20%} [22%] (16%) {16%} [21%] (13%) Moderate; 5% {2%} [4%] (6%) {4%} [7%] (4%) {7%} [4%] (6%) Somewhat liberal; 1% {1%} [4%] (3%) {3%} [3%] (2%) {1%} [3%] (1%) Very liberal. Results from the poll conducted May 9-11, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted April 26-28, 2014 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 3-6, 2014 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted March 6-9, 2014 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 6-9, 2014 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 9-12, 2014 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted December 5-8, 2013 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 8-11, 2013 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted December 6-9, 2012 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

December 13, 2014

Is Bush Finally Getting Off His Duff?

The Washington Post seems to think so:

Jeb Bush and his emissaries are sending increasingly strong signals that the former Florida governor is gearing up for a 2016 presidential campaign, with associates saying he could announce his intentions within a month.

Bush recently e-mailed major Republican donors asking them to, as several of them put it, “keep your powder dry.” His allies are urging would-be bundlers not to commit to New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie or other potential rivals. Bush’s top strategist, Mike Murphy, has also been telling potential campaign staffers not to sign up to work for another candidate and to expect Bush’s announcement soon.

Out of public office for eight years, Bush has a thicket of business interests — including massive overseas investment funds — that he is working to untangle himself from before a campaign begins. As one confidant said, “He says he knows he has to wrap it up.”

This NYTimes story only adds to the increasing speculation:

WASHINGTON — When former Gov. Jeb Bush of Florida quietly visited Senator John McCain in his Capitol Hill office this fall, discussion turned to a subject of increasing interest to Mr. Bush: how to run for president without pandering to the party’s conservative base.

“I just said to him, ‘I think if you look back, despite the far right’s complaints, it is the centrist that wins the nomination,’ ” Mr. McCain, an Arizona Republican, said he told Mr. Bush.

In the past few weeks, Mr. Bush has moved toward a run for the White House. His family’s resistance has receded. His advisers are seeking staff. And the former governor is even slimming down, shedding about 15 pounds thanks to frequent swimming and personal training sessions after a knee operation last year.

But before pursuing the presidency, Mr. Bush, 61, is grappling with the central question of whether he can prevail in a grueling primary battle without shifting his positions or altering his persona to satisfy his party’s hard-liners. In conversations with donors, friends and advisers, he is discussing whether he can navigate, and avoid being tripped up by, the conservative Republican base.

Question? If Jeb is such a “Conservative”, why does he have to seek out John McCain for advice on how “stay true to his principles” in the primary in order to sneak by the Conservative base?

by @ 10:52 am. Filed under Jeb Bush

December 11, 2014

Jeb as Mini-Mitt?

Joshua Green over on Bloomberg reports a potential problem with a Jeb Bush Presidential run: (emphasis added)

Over the last several months, former Florida Governor Jeb Bush has been giving speeches, campaigning for candidates, appearing at public forums, and meeting with wealthy donors, which has led many people to believe that he may soon enter the race to become the next Republican presidential nominee. On Dec.1, Bush told a gathering of business leaders at the Four Seasons Hotel in Washington that he would make a decision about his political future “in short order.” But Bush’s recent business ventures reveal that he shares a number of liabilities with the last nominee, Mitt Romney, whose career in private equity proved so politically damaging that it sunk his candidacy.

Documents filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission on Nov. 27 list Bush as chairman and manager of a new offshore private equity fund, BH Global Aviation, which raised $61 million in September, largely from foreign ­investors. In November the fund ­incorporated in the United Kingdom and Wales­—a ­structure, several independent finance lawyers say, that operates like a tax haven by allowing overseas investors to avoid U.S. taxes and regulations.

BH Global Aviation is one of at least three such funds Bush has launched in less than two years through his Coral Gables, Fla., company, Britton Hill Holdings. He’s also chairman of a $26 million fund, BH Logistics, established in April with backing from a Chinese conglomerate, and a $40 million fund involved in shale oil exploration, according to documents filed in June and first ­reported on by Bloomberg News. His flurry of ventures doesn’t suggest someone preparing to run for president, according to a dozen fund managers, lawyers, and ­private-placement agents who were ­apprised of his recent activities by Bloomberg Businessweek. Most private equity funds have a life span of 10 years. While it isn’t impossible that Bush could bail on his investors so soon after taking their money, “that would be unusual,” says Steven Kaplan, a private equity expert at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business. One fundraiser for private equity adds that normally you’d be winding down such businesses, rather than expanding them, if you were going to run.

“Running as the second coming of Mitt Romney is not a credential that’s going to play anywhere, with Republicans or Democrats,” says John Brabender, a Republican consultant and veteran of presidential campaigns. “Not only would this be problematic on the campaign trail, I think it also signals someone who isn’t seriously looking at the presidency or he wouldn’t have gone down this path.”

I would not go so far as to say Mitt’s “…career in private equity proved so politically damaging that it sunk his candidacy.” It didn’t help it, that is for certain, but to ascribe his 2012 defeat entirely to his private equity career is pushing it, in my opinion.

Be that as it may, I do find it interesting that several people in the equity business suggest that Bush’s recent actions are not those of a man who has been seriously giving thought to running for President.

by @ 1:51 pm. Filed under Jeb Bush, Mitt Romney

December 10, 2014

Barbara Bush Now Likes the Idea Of Jeb In the White House

Former First Lady once famously said, “I don’t want Jeb to run for president”. She’s changed her mind. Neil Bush, Jeb’s younger brother, reported that, “Mom has come around … she wants to take her negative comment off the table”.

She has thought about it and now feels that he is the best qualified candidate.

by @ 10:29 am. Filed under Jeb Bush

December 9, 2014

Poll Watch: Bloomberg Politics/Selzer & Co. 2016 Presidential Survey

  • Hillary Clinton (D) 42% [45%] (52%) 
  • Chris Christie (R) 36% [38%] (39%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 43% [47%]
  • Jeb Bush (R) 37% [38%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 45% [47%]
  • Rand Paul (R) 37% [38%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 46%
  • Ted Cruz (R) 33%
National survey of 753 likely voters was conducted December 3-5, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 3.6 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted June 6-9, 2014 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 7-10, 2014 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 10:56 am. Filed under 2016, Chris Christie, Hillary Clinton, Jeb Bush, Poll Watch, Rand Paul, Ted Cruz

December 8, 2014

Bloomberg Poll Places Hillary On Top

The lastest Bloomberg poll is out. Things appear to look real good for Hillary:

Candidate Hillary Republican Diff Other / None Favorable Unfavorable Diff
Clinton 0 0 0 0 52 42 10
Bush 43 37 6 17 32 37 -5
Christie 42 36 6 18 36 35 1
Paul 45 37 8 15 32 29 3
Romney 45 39 6 14 43 44 -1
Cruz 46 33 13 16 26 29 -3

The Bloomberg Politics Poll, conducted December 3 is based on interviews with 1,001 U.S. adults ages 18 or older.

*Head-to-head was, “Among 2016 likely voters; n=753. Margin of error: ± 3.6 percentage points.”

However, please note that it is a poll of adults, not registered voters. Polls of adults are notoriously skewed to favor the liberal Democrat. Now if this was a poll of registered voters, or — even better — likely voters, we would be in deep trouble. But those sorts of polls are much harder to do and thus are more expensive.

Another problem with this poll is that in the head-to-heads, Bloomberg included “Other”. “Other” polled in the mid to high teens in each match-up. Guess what, at this point, there aren’t that many Democrat “others” but a ton of Republican “others”.

So take this poll with a large grain of salt.

Edited to add head-to-head note and the “other / none” column. Thanks GS and SunshineState.

by @ 10:48 am. Filed under Chris Christie, Hillary Clinton, Jeb Bush, Mitt Romney, Rand Paul, Ted Cruz

December 7, 2014

What’s Been Happening in Iowa?

Iowa is home to the Iowa Caucuses, the first real contest on the road to becoming the next President. The Des Moines Register recently published a tally of what possible future Presidential primary candidates have been up to in their state:

Fifteen Republican potential presidential candidates are on Iowans’ radar, ranked here by their events in Iowa since the 2012 elections. Also presented: their support in an Oct. 1-7 Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Politics Iowa Poll.

Candidate Trips Events Days Caucus Support % First Choice % Second Choice %
Rick Perry 8 *33* *15* 13 7 6
Rand Paul 6 24 10 18 10 8
Rick Santorum *9* 19 12 8 3 5
Ted Cruz 6 12 8 13 7 6
Bobby Jindal 4 10 7 5 1 4
Chris Christie 4 8 4 11 6 5
Marco Rubio 4 8 5 5 2 3
Mike Huckabee 5 7 6 17 9 8
Rob Portman 1 7 2 0 0 0
Ben Carson 2 6 3 18 11 7
Paul Ryan 3 4 3 18 8 *10*
Mitt Romney 2 4 3 *25* *17* 8
Scott Walker 2 3 2 9 4 5
Mike Pence 1 1 1 1 0 1
Jeb Bush 0 0 0 12 4 8

Thoughts on the above:

  1. Rick Perry appears to be serious about running. He’s been to more Iowan events in the past two years than anybody else — eleven more than his closest rival, Rand Paul.
  2. Rand Paul has as much support as either Ben Carson and Paul Ryan, yet he has made more trips and has more than doubled the events that they have done put together.
  3. Rick Santorum was the last ABR (Anybody But Romney) standing in 2012. He’s made more trips to Iowa than anybody else. He even won the caucuses last time, yet he registers only single digits in support.
  4. Mike Huckabee has only made a handful of trips to the state yet pulls in a respectful 17% support. He’s a man to watch.
  5. Rob Portman has been to seven events in Iowa during a two day marathon, yet he is the only person with 0% support.
  6. Ben Carson and Paul Ryan only have a small number of visits and events yet each pulls a respectful 18% support. They are definitely men to watch.
  7. Mitt Romney has only made a couple of trips to Iowa. He continues to say he’s not planning on running, yet he has considerable more support in Iowa than anybody else. If you recall in 2012, he didn’t even campaign in Iowa except in the last week or two before the caucuses were held, yet he finished second by less than 25 votes.
  8. Scott Walker doesn’t seem to be doing that well in spite of being a fellow Midwesterner. (Shades of Pawlenty and Bachmann perhaps?)
  9. Jeb Bush has not visited Iowa at all in the past two years yet pulls down double digit support.


Edited to add Jeb Bush line to chart and the comment about his level of support in my thoughts.
MBL

Jeb Bush — Moderate or Conservative?

The following article appeared in the Tampa Bay Times. It got me thinking.

Jeb Bush, a moderate squish?

The governor who treated trial lawyers and teachers union leaders as enemies of the state? Who stripped job protections from civil servants? Who slashed taxes? Whose passion for privatization included enacting the nation’s first statewide private school voucher program and extended to privatizing health care for the poor, prisons and child protection services?

This “very good moderate Democrat” defied court after court to try to force the reinsertion of feeding tubes for brain-damaged Terri Schia­vo and consistently backed more restrictions on abortions and fewer on gun ownership. He fought for reduced entitlement spending and, deriding nanny-state impulses, repealed the helmet law for motorcyclists in Florida and vetoed a GOP-backed bill requiring booster seats for kids in cars.

“For us who live in Florida, who experienced the eight-year Jeb Bush governorship, it’s almost laughable and maybe even hysterical for people who live outside of Florida to claim that he’s a moderate,” said former House Speaker Will Weatherford, R-Wesley Chapel, himself a conservative Republican who led the opposition to Florida accepting federal money to expand Medicaid to more than 800,000 people.

“This is a guy who probably has as conservative a record as governor as anybody I’ve ever seen,” Weatherford said, “and he has one of the most successful records as governor of anybody I’ve ever seen.”

This brings up an interesting question. Does a politician have to side with the conservative side 100% of the time to be counted as conservative? If not, where exactly is the cutoff line before he is officially labeled with the dreaded M-word? Is it 90%? 80%? 75%?

Could it be that the two previous Presidents Bush left us with such a bad taste in our mouths that we are grasping at straws trying to find some reason to justify our antipathy to the prospect of a third?

Am I a Bush supporter? Hardly. The idea of yet another President Bush sticks in my craw and offends my sense of propriety. This is America. We don’t have monarchical dynasties here. And the first two Presidents Bush were not exactly paragons of conservative virtue, were they.

However, there is a far more important principle at work here. In America, we are supposed to judge people by who they are, not by their genetics. In the same way that we should not automatically qualify a man to be President based solely upon his ancestry, we should never automatically disqualify another based solely upon his ancestry, either. Should we automatically say, “no”, to another President Bush merely because we’ve already had two previous ones, and two is enough? Or should we automatically say, “no”, merely because we didn’t like the two previous ones? That’s rather un-American of us, is it not?

Is Jeb Bush really all that moderate, or are we just seeking reasons to justify disqualifying yet another Bush from becoming President? I honestly do not know the answer to that question. Do you?

by @ 8:28 am. Filed under Jeb Bush

December 5, 2014

Bush is Pushing Into New England

RCP reports that Bush is sending feelers into New Hampshire:

Two top New Hampshire Republican strategists have been contacted this week by a Jeb Bush confidant to discuss their interest in leading the former Florida governor’s prospective presidential campaign there, RealClearPolitics has learned from GOP sources in the Granite State.

The new outreach from Bush’s camp was directed at a pair of experienced and well-respected New Hampshire GOP operatives, each of whom has previously helmed presidential campaigns in the state.

“I think the decision’s been made, personally,” said one of the strategists who was contacted by Bush’s camp and who spoke to RCP under the condition of anonymity.

So first we have Romney telling donors not to commit to people who are not their first choice, and now we hear news that a Bush confidant is encouraging New Hampshire GOP operatives to “keep your powder dry”. Lots of things are happening beneath the surface.

Are we going to have a great establishment showdown between Mitt and Jeb? If true this should be fun to watch. Bring popcorn.

:)

by @ 8:44 pm. Filed under Jeb Bush, Mitt Romney

Another Day, Another Article Saying Mitt May Be Running

Now Ben White of CNBC (h/t jamesjones ) is saying the chances are good that Mitt is running: (emphasis added)

Mitt Romney made the rounds on Wall Street recently, and people who attended the meetings said they came away convinced the 2012 GOP presidential nominee would launch another campaign for the White House.

“Mitt’s running,” is how one senior Wall Street banker who met with Romney recently put it to me this week, saying the conventional wisdom that the 2012 nominee would make another run only if the party reached out to him in desperation next year was dead wrong. “He’s running, flat out.”

Others came away from meetings—some of which were intended to talk about Romney’s son’s investment firm—less convinced that a third White House run was a sure thing. But these people, too, said Romney’s tone had changed significantly from just a month earlier. Instead of playing down the possibility of a run, these people said, Romney urged them to hold tight rather than commit to a candidate they did not love.

“He tells people not to commit to a candidate that is not their first choice and that they aren’t excited about,” one plugged-in Republican told me of the meetings. “He does not think much of the current field and does not think it is jelling. He still views himself as the leader of the establishment wing of the Republican Party. It’s definitely a change in his message [tilted more toward running].”

The Republican added that Romney’s decision doesn’t depend on Jeb Bush. “He does not feel he owes the Bushes anything and does not think Jeb is the de facto leader of the establishment GOP.

Well of course the field is not jelling. It’s only the first week of December 2014, for crying out loud. Nothing is going to “jell” for at least a couple of months. But that doesn’t mean that the future field isn’t starting to take shape. Jeb Bush, Rick Perry, Ben Carson, and your old friend Mike Huckabee are definitely starting to make their moves. Throw in Chris Christie, Ted Cruz, Scott Walker, and a few others and you’ve got yourself quite the field.

I am guessing that he has been reading all those polls that show him out in front of his GOP competition by either high single digits, or low double digits. There are even respectable national polls that show him defeating Hillary Clinton head to head. That has to be acting upon his mind. He, the consummate planner and details man doesn’t like to waste a second. He has to be chaffing at the valuable time slipping away. If he is getting in, he will be getting in soon. He is NOT going to wait while Jeb Bush does his Hamlet impression while valuable time ticks by.

He is right about one thing, he doesn’t owe the Bushes a blamed thing. In that respect, I agree with him. It should be interesting to see if Mitt forms an exploratory committee before Jeb Bush does. What would Bush’s reaction be, I wonder.

Wouldn’t it be fun to see what would happen with both Bush and Romney in the race? These two are supposed to be the epitome of the “establishment”. Which way would the “establishment” go, do you think?

by @ 5:37 pm. Filed under Jeb Bush, Mitt Romney

I Doubt This Did Jeb Any Favors

Jeb Bush’s brother, the former President, likes Bill Clinton. From the Washington Post:

Former President Bush has spoken at length about his close ties to former President Bill Clinton, at times calling him his “brother from another mother.”

CNN’s Candy Crowley asked Bush during an interview published Friday where that leaves Hillary Clinton: “My sister-in-law!” the president responded light-heartedly.

If Jeb wishes to run for President, he needs this like he needs a poke in the eye with a sharp stick.

 

by @ 1:14 pm. Filed under Hillary Clinton, Jeb Bush

More Trouble for Hillary?

Last month’s Quinnipiac poll has been commented upon before in this blog, but there are still a nugget or two that can be dug up out of it. One of them is how well Hillary Clinton does against proposed opponents.

Hillary % Opponent % Diff Fav % Unfav % Haven’t Heard Enough
Hillary Clinton 50 45 3
Mitt Romney 44 45 -1 44 42 11
Chris Christie 43 42 1 38 33 27
Paul Ryan 46 42 4 36 28 35
Rand Paul 46 41 5 35 26 37
Mike Huckabee 46 41 5 36 29 34
Jeb Bush 46 41 5 33 32 33

The fact that she is only within five ppts against the six top GOP contenders in this poll has been commented upon before here at Race4. But take a look at the last column. When the voters were asked if they had a favorable or unfavorable opinion of a potential candidate, a certain percentage declared that they hadn’t heard enough about the person to make up their minds. The results are listed in the last column.

Only 3% of the voters hadn’t heard enough to make up their minds on Hillary. 3%. That strongly implies that the voters’ opinions of her are fairly fixed and not likely to move much one way or the other. In other words, after more than three decades in the public’s eye, voters have pretty much made up their minds on Hillary Rodham Clinton.

Her potential opponents, on the other hand, enjoy double digit values in that column. Even last election’s GOP candidate, Mitt Romney, has more than 10% of the population saying they haven’t heard enough about him to make up their minds. Christie is at 27%, and the rest have percentages in the thirties.

This implies that each of Hillary’s projected opponents have a fair amount of wiggle room to grow in the minds of the voters. With her numbers nearly fixed and her opponents’ numbers more fluid, it is not going to be a cakewalk for her to become the next President of the United States.

December 4, 2014

An Open Letter To Mitt Romney

I just read the following in the Business Insider:

Mitt Romney held meetings with donors in New York this week that left one attendee convinced he is running for president again in 2016.

A member of Romney’s inner circle who spoke to Business Insider said the former governor of Massachusetts traveled to New York City on Monday where he met with key financial backers of his past campaigns to lay the groundwork for a 2016 White House bid.

In addition to potential donors, the source said Romney met with New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (R) this week.

Christie endorsed Romney during his last race. However, he is expected to mount his own White House bid in 2016.

Romney’s meetings this week are not his first efforts to reconnect with former donors and campaign staff. In October, The Washington Post reported on a “flurry of behind-the-scenes activity” that Romney’s “friends” said was leading him to “more seriously consider” running for president again. This activity included multiple meetings with donors and “supporters in key states” as well as an October dinner in Boston that Romney and his wife hosted for “former campaign advisers and business associates.”

In September, Romney’s wife, Ann, indicated Romney would be discouraged from mounting another White House bid if former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush (R) enters the 2016 field. … Bush has said he is thinking about launching a campaign. In an October interview, Ann said Romney was “done” running for president. However, the source who spoke to Business Insider said she would be fully supportive if her husband does decide to run in 2016.

(more…)

December 3, 2014

Bush and Cruz Have Been Busy, Too

In a Politco article about Rick Perry, we find this little paragraph:

Perry’s intensive month of foundation-building comes as other prospective Republican presidential candidates — notably former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz — are engaging with the wealthy Texans who for years have been among the GOP’s most significant sources of cash. As the heir to a political dynasty with deep Texas ties, Bush in particular could seriously cut into Perry’s financial base. Bush over the last few months has met with major Texas donors.

The plot thickens.

 

by @ 3:23 pm. Filed under Jeb Bush, Ted Cruz

We Have A Front Runner. Wait, Romney’s Not Running. Never Mind.

Two surveys came out last week polling Republicans as to the 2016 presidential choice. The results are as follows:

Quinnipiac 11/26 CNN 11/24
Romney: 19 Romney: 20
Bush: 11 Carson: 10
Christie: 8 Bush: 9
Carson: 8 Christie:8
Paul: 6 Huckabee: 7
Ryan: 5 Paul: 6
Walker: 5 Ryan: 6
Huckabee: 5 Cruz: 5
Cruz: 5 Walker: 5
Rubio: 2 Perry: 4
Jindal: 2 Rubio: 3
Kasich: 2 Kasich: 2
Perry: 2 Santorum: 2
Santorum: 1 Jindal: 1
Portman: 0 Pence: 1
Portman: 0
Other: 1
Won’t Vote: 1 Other: 6
Undecided: 16 None: 2
No Opinion: 3

• Quinnipac polled 707 Republicans with a MOE of +/- 3.7%
• CNN polled 510 Republicans with a MOE of +/- 4.7%

Both show pretty convincingly that Mitt Romney is currently the undisputed front runner for the 2016 GOP nomination. One problem though, Romney has repeatedly stated that he has no intention of running. So when the polls recalibrate for that and exclude Mitt, the results were anything but clear cut:

Quinnipiac 11/26 CNN 11/24
Bush: 14 Bush: 14
Christie: 11 Carson: 11
Carson: 9 Huckabee: 10
Paul: 8 Christie: 9
Ryan: 7 Ryan: 9
Huckabee: 7 Paul: 8
Walker: 6 Cruz: 7
Cruz: 5 Perry: 5
Rubio: 3 Walker: 5
Jindal: 3 Kasich: 3
Perry:3 Rubio: 3
Kasich: 2 Santorum: 2
Santorum: 2 Jindal: 1
Portman: 1 Pence: 1
Portman: 0
Other:1
Won’t Vote: 1 Other: 6
Undecided: 19 None: 2
No Opinion: 4

Yes, without Romney Jeb Bush leads in both polls, but only by 3 ppts. That’s well within the margin of error of both polls. And if you look even closer, the race is even tighter. The Quinnipiac Poll shows three candidates within five ppts of each other, CNN shows five within five.

The conclusion is inescapable. Jeb Bush might be the current titular leader in the race, but the race is wide open. (And him making comments about not needing conservatives to win won’t help him to pull away from the pack.)

Poll Watch: CNN/ORC 2016 Republican Nomination Survey

CNN/ORC 2016 GOP Nomination Poll

  • Jeb Bush 14% (8%) {12%} [13%] (9%) {10%} [6%] (10%)
  • Ben Carson 11%
  • Mike Huckabee 10% (12%) {11%} [10%] (10%) {14%}
  • Chris Christie 9% (13%) {8%} [9%] (8%) {10%} [24%] (17%)
  • Paul Ryan 9% (11%) {10%} [12%] (15%) {9%} [11%] (16%)
  • Rand Paul 8% (12%) {14%} [13%] (16%) {13%} [13%] (13%)
  • Ted Cruz 7% (8%) {9%} [7%] (8%) {8%} [10%] (7%)
  • Rick Perry 5% (11%) {6%} [8%] (11%) {8%} [7%] (6%)
  • Scott Walker 5% (5%) {5%} [7%]
  • John Kasich 3%
  • Marco Rubio 3% (6%) {8%} [6%] (5%) {9%} [9%] (9%)
  • Rick Santorum 2% (3%) {4%} [2%] (3%) {4%} [6%] (5%)
  • Bobby Jindal 1%
  • Mike Pence 1%
  • Rob Portman 0%
  • Someone else (vol.) 6% (6%) {6%} [4%] (6%) {8%} [6%] (6%)
  • None/No one (vol.) 2% (2%) {2%] [4%] (4%) {3%} [2%] (4%)
  • No opinion 4% (3%) {5%} [7%] (5%) {4%} [6%] (6%)

Among Republicans

  • Jeb Bush 20% (10%) {10%} [15%] (11%) {10%} [6%] (13%)
  • Chris Christie 11% (13%) {8%} [8%] (6%) {8%} [28%] (17%)
  • Mike Huckabee 11% (12%) {14%} [12%] (9%) {17%}
  • Paul Ryan 7% (14%) {15%} [14%] (19%) {9%} [11%] (17%)
  • Ted Cruz 7% (6%) {9%} [6%] (11%) {5%} [9%] (7%)
  • Ben Carson 6%
  • Rand Paul 6% (12%) {8%} [12%] (10%) {13%} [12%] (9%)
  • Scott Walker 5% (4%) {4%} [7%]
  • Rick Perry 4% (10%) {7%} [7%] (11%) {8%} [8%] (7%)
  • Rick Santorum 2% (4%) {3%} [2%] (4%) {5%} [7%] (3%)
  • Bobby Jindal 2%
  • Marco Rubio 2% (6%) {9%} [6%] (5%) {12%} [10%] (10%)
  • John Kasich 1%
  • Mike Pence 0%
  • Rob Portman 0%
  • Someone else (vol.) 7% (5%) {7%} [3%] (8%) {5%} [6%] (7%)
  • None/No one (vol.) 2% (1%) {2%} [2%] (3%) {4%} [1%] (4%)
  • No opinion 4% (3%) {4%} [8%] (5%) {3%} [3%] (5%)

Among GOP-Leaning Independents

  • Ben Carson 15%
  • Paul Ryan 11% (7%) {5%} [8%] (11%) {10%} [12%]  (15%)
  • Mike Huckabee 10% (13%) {8%} [7%] (11%) {10%}
  • Rand Paul 10% (13%) {21%} [15%] (22%) {13%} [15%] (17%)
  • Jeb Bush 7% (5%) {14%} [10%] (7%) {10%} [6%] (6%)
  • Ted Cruz 7% (10%) {9%} [9%] (6%) {13%} [12%] (7%)
  • Chris Christie 6% (12%) {7%} [10%] (11%) {13%} [20%] (18%)
  • Rick Perry 6% (12%) {5%} [8%] (12%) {7%} [7%] (6%)
  • Scott Walker 6% (5%) {6%} [6%]
  • John Kasich 4%
  • Marco Rubio 4% (6%) {7%} [6%] (5%) {5%} [7%] (9%)
  • Mike Pence 2%
  • Rick Santorum 2% (3%) {4%} [2%] (2%) {3%} [5%] (7%)
  • Bobby Jindal 1%
  • Rob Portman 0%
  • Someone else (vol.) 6% (7%) {5%} [5%] (3%) {12%} [6%] (4%)
  • None/No one (vol.) 1% (3%) {3%} [6%] (6%) {2%} [3%] (4%)
  • No opinion 3% (4%) {7%} [7%] (5%) {4%} [8%] (7%)

Among Men

  • Ben Carson 12%
  • Jeb Bush 11% (7%) {12%} [14%] (7%) {9%} [2%] (9%)
  • Rand Paul 10% (14%) {17%} [17%] (17%) {17%} [15%] (13%)
  • Chris Christie 9% (12%) {7%} [8%] (9%) {6%} [23%] (16%)
  • Scott Walker 9% (6%) {7%} [8%]
  • Paul Ryan 8% (12%) {9%} [7%] (15%) {12%} [10%] (14%)
  • Mike Huckabee 8% (11%) {11%} [8%] (11%) {14%}
  • Ted Cruz 8% (10%) {10%} [9%] (10%) {10%} [12%] (12%)
  • Rick Perry 5% (9%) {8%} [11%] (10%) {7%} [8%] (7%)
  • Marco Rubio 3% (5%) {6%} [4%] (6%) {7%} [11%] (11%)
  • Bobby Jindal 2%
  • John Kasich 1%
  • Rick Santorum 1% (3%) {4%} [1%] (2%) {2%} [6%] (6%)
  • Mike Pence 0%
  • Rob Portman 0%
  • Someone else (vol.) 7% (7%) {5%} [3%] (7%) {8%} [6%] (5%)
  • None/No one (vol.) 2% (2%) {1%} [4%] (2%) {4%} [2%] (3%)
  • No opinion 5% (1%) {3%} [6%] (3%) {4%} [4%] (5%)

Among Women

  • Jeb Bush 16% (9%) {10%} [12%] (11%) {10%} [10%] (11%)
  • Mike Huckabee 13% (15%) {12%} [12%] (9%) {14%}
  • Paul Ryan 10% (9%) {12%} [17%] (13%) {6%} [13%] (19%)
  • Chris Christie 9% (13%) {8%} [9%] (7%) {15%} [24%] (19%)
  • Ben Carson 9%
  • Rand Paul 6% (10%) {10%} [10%] (14%) {9%} [11%] (12%)
  • Ted Cruz 6% (6%) {8%} [5%] (6%) {7%} [8%] (3%)
  • Rick Perry 5% (13%) {3%} [4%] (13%) {9%} [6%] (6%)
  • John Kasich 4%
  • Marco Rubio 4% (7%) {11%} [8%] (5%) {11%} [7%] (7%)
  • Mike Pence 2%
  • Scott Walker 2% (3%) {3%} [6%]
  • Rick Santorum 2% (3%) {3%} [2%] (4%) {7%} [6%] (4%)
  • Bobby Jindal 1%
  • Rob Portman 0%
  • Someone else (vol.) 6% (5%) {7%} [4%] (4%) {8%} [6%] (6%)
  • None/No one (vol.) 2% (1%) {4%} [3%] (7%) {3%} [2%] (6%)
  • No opinion 3% (5%) {8%} [9%] (6%) {3%} [7%] (7%)

Survey of 510 Republicans and GOP-leaning Independents was conducted November 21-23, 2014.  The margin of error is +/- 4.5 percentage points. Party ID: 62% (59%) {55%} [61%] (50%) {52%} Republican; 38% (41%) {45%} [39%] (50%) {48%} Independent. Results from the poll conducted July 18-20, 2014 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted May 29 – June 1, 2014 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 2-4, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted March 7-9, 2014 are in parentheses.   Results from the poll conducted January 31 – February 2, 2014 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 18-20, 2013 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 6-8, 2013 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 4:00 am. Filed under 2016, Jeb Bush, Poll Watch, Republican Party

December 2, 2014

Poll Watch: Rasmussen 2016 GOP Nomination Survey

Rasmussen 2016 GOP Nomination Poll

  • Paul Ryan 20% (13%)
  • Scott Walker 20% [5%] (6%)
  • Jeb Bush 18% [12%] (16%)
  • Chris Christie 15% [22%] (21%)
  • Rand Paul 13% [20%] (15%)

Survey of likely Republican primary voters was conducted November 20-21, 2014.  Results from the poll conducted November 7-8, 2013 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 1-2, 2013 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 12:05 pm. Filed under 2016, Chris Christie, Jeb Bush, Paul Ryan, Poll Watch, Rand Paul, Scott Walker

December 1, 2014

Jeb Won’t be the GOP Nominee? Charlie Cook Doesn’t Think So

The Kansas City Star is reporting: (Emphasis added)

Charlie Cook, one of the most respected political experts in the country, believes Hillary Clinton has only a 25-30 percent chance of not running for President. Despite Clinton’s “disastrous book tour,” and other missteps, Cook still believes chances are still great that Clinton will run.

The author of the nonpartisan Cook Political Report newsletter for almost 30 years also disappointed a local audience when he did not give Jeb Bush much of a chance of gaining the Republican nomination.

“Bush has two issues working against him to win the Republican primary for the 2016 presidential election,” Cook said. “One is immigration reform, which he favors; and two, is his advocacy of education reform.”

Neither of those causes would sit well with Republican primary voters, Cook said.

He expects the next Republican nominee to be either a tea party Senator or a governor from the Midwest. He wouldn’t predict beyond that.

Cook spoke at a recent private event.

“He expects the next Republican nominee to be either a tea party Senator or a governor from the Midwest.”  I would not want to bet against that.

 

by @ 11:24 am. Filed under Hillary Clinton, Jeb Bush

The Granite State Still Loves Mitt

A rather surprising poll was released last Monday. It shows Mitt Romney is the overwhelming favorite to win the New Hampshire 2016 primary:

If the 2016 New Hampshire Republican presidential primary were held today and the candidates were:  Mitt Romney, Chris Christie, Rand Paul, Bobby Jindal, Jeb Bush, Rick Perry, Ted Cruz, Paul Ryan, Mike Huckabee, and Ben Carson for whom would you vote?

  • Mitt Romney: 30
  • Rand Paul: 11
  • Chris Christie: 9
  • Jeb Bush: 8
  • Ben Carson: 6
  • Mike Huckabee: 5
  • Paul Ryan: 5
  • Ted Cruz: 5
  • Bobby Jindal: 3
  • Rick Perry: 2
  • None of the above: 3
  • Someone Else: 1
  • Not sure: 11

Mitt Romney has repeatedly stated he isn’t interested in running, especially if Jeb Bush runs, and all indications point to Jeb throwing his hat into the ring. Yet Romney continues to show surprising strength whenever his name is included in polling. He leads his nearest competitor by nearly 20 ppts.

This is extraordinary. McCain didn’t have nearly this level of support four years ago in 2010. Everyone was more than glad to let the good Senator from Arizona disappear off the national screen after losing to Obama in 2008. Yet four years later, his successor continues to enjoy fairly wide support among GOP voters. He isn’t too popular with the conservative activists who have never much cared for the man, but the rank-and-file voters still seem to like him.

(more…)

Poll Watch: Gravis Marketing (R) Florida 2016 Republican Primary Survey

Gravis Marketing (R) Florida 2016 GOP Primary Poll

  • Jeb Bush 33%
  • Marco Rubio 14%
  • Ted Cruz 11%
  • Rand Paul 11%
  • Chris Christie 6%
  • Nikki Haley 5%
  • Paul Ryan 5%
  • Rick Santorum 3%
  • Unsure 13%

Survey of 811 Republican voters was conducted November 19-20, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 9:35 am. Filed under 2016, Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, Poll Watch

November 26, 2014

Poll Watch: Quinnipiac 2016 Republican Nomination Survey

Quinnipiac 2016 GOP Nomination Poll

  • Jeb Bush 14% [10%] (11%) {11%} [11%] (10%)
  • Chris Christie 11% [10%] (12%) {17%} [13%] (14%)
  • Ben Carson 9%
  • Rand Paul 8% [11%] (13%) {14%} [17%] (15%)
  • Mike Huckabee 7% [10%]
  • Paul Ryan 7% [8%] (13%) {9%} [10%] (17%)
  • Scott Walker 6% [8%] (6%) {5%} [4%] (2%)
  • Ted Cruz 5% [8%] (9%) {13%} [10%]
  • Rick Perry 3% [3%]
  • Bobby Jindal 3% [1%] (3%) {3%} [3%] (3%)
  • Marco Rubio 3% [6%] (8%) {7%} [12%] (19%)
  • John Kasich 2% [2%] (2%) {2%}
  • Rick Santorum 2% [2%]
  • Rob Portman 1%
  • Don’t know 19% [20%] (22%) {17%} [19%] (18%)

Survey of 707 registered Republican and GOP-leaning voters was conducted November 18-23, 2014.  The margin of error is +/- 3.7 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted June 24-30, 2014are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 15-19, 2014 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted December 3-9, 2013 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 23-29, 2013 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 26 – April 1, 2013 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 11:27 am. Filed under 2016, Jeb Bush, Poll Watch

November 24, 2014

Poll Watch: Reuters/Ipsos Iowa 2016 Presidential Survey

  • Hillary Clinton (D) 42%
  • Paul Ryan (R) 41%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 40%
  • Chris Christie (R) 37%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 43%
  • Rand Paul (R) 36%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 44%
  • Jeb Bush (R) 36%
  • Paul Ryan (R) 45%
  • Joe Biden (D) 32%
  • Chris Christie (R) 41%
  • Joe Biden (D) 30%
  • Rand Paul (R) 39%
  • Joe Biden (D) 33%
  • Jeb Bush (R) 40%
  • Joe Biden (D) 33%
  • Paul Ryan (R) 41%
  • Andrew Cuomo (D) 27%
  • Chris Christie (R) 39%
  • Andrew Cuomo (D) 24%
  • Rand Paul (R) 37%
  • Andrew Cuomo (D) 30%
  • Jeb Bush (R) 36%
  • Andrew Cuomo (D) 30%

Online survey of 1,129 likely voters was conducted October 23-29, 2014.  The margin of error is +/- 3.3 percentage points. Party ID: 33% Republican; 32% Democrat; 34% Independent.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 4:00 am. Filed under 2016, Andrew Cuomo, Chris Christie, Hillary Clinton, Jeb Bush, Joe Biden, Paul Ryan, Poll Watch, Rand Paul

November 21, 2014

OPINION: Help Us, Chris Christie, You’re Our Only Hope

The 2014 midterm elections were long expected to go well for Republicans. What was surprising was just how good a night the GOP wound up having, and that is in large part due to the extraordinary success of Chris Christie and the RGA.  Long thought to be the Democrats’ silver lining in 2014, the governors races ended up delivering a succession of crippling blows to the President’s party. Holding key states like Ohio, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Florida, while adding blue states like Massachusetts, Maryland, and Illinois, was the unexpected highlight of the election and the crowning achievement of Christie’s record-breaking tenure as RGA chairman. This accomplishment has rightly put Christie back in the frontrunner’s position for 2016.

Naturally, his return to the top has angered some on the far right, as well as some Bush loyalists in the establishment. But despite the naysayers, Christie is still better positioned and better suited to be the party’s standard bearer in 2016 than anyone else. This is due not only to Christie’s strengths, but also the profound weakness of his competition. Here are a few reasons why the 2016 field doesn’t stand much of a chance against the New Jersey governor:

1. Bush Baggage – The notion of Jeb Bush as a frontrunner has been a perplexing one for me. True, his family connections and donor base will give him a early jump on some of the new faces looking at the race, but other than that what does a third Bush run offer? The former Florida governor has been out of office for over a decade, a lifetime in politics. He champions a number of policies despised by the conservative base and attempts to sell these positions with a stage presence and style that would make Al Gore seem exciting. Worst of all, after painstakingly moving the party out of the shadow of George W. Bush, brother Jeb would pull us right back in. In a field of candidates unburdened by votes for the Iraq War or a bailout for the financial industry, Jeb Bush will be made to defend both. He is uniquely positioned to be the only Republican still carrying those albatrosses around his neck.  Add that to the fact that the Democrats are relying on a dynastic relic of their own for 2016, and it all seems incredibly stupid for the GOP to do the same. Why would we want to create a contrast between the Clinton economy of the 1990’s and the Bush economic collapse of 2008? Why hinder ourselves with the burden of the Bush family when we can finally run a new generation candidate in a change election? Without question, Jeb Bush is the worst possible option for 2016.

2. Empty Resumes – After two terms of Barack Obama and years of complaining from the GOP faithful about how unqualified and unprepared this half-term senator was for the job, the conservative base seems eager to offer up even less qualified candidates of their own. Senators Ted Cruz, Rand Paul, and Marco Rubio all have resumes even weaker and devoid of accomplishments than Sen. Obama offered in 2008. While some would argue that Rubio doesn’t belong in this group due to his short time in the Florida legislature, I would argue his flip-flop on immigration reform (a bill he helped write) has damaged his credibility even more so than his unqualified fellow senators. If these three were not unfit enough, conservatives are also pushing Dr. Ben Carson, a man with no political or governing experience whatsoever. None. Zip. Zilch. The shocking lack of qualifications among this group would be funny if it wasn’t so pathetic.

3. Untested Governors – The common refrain among Republicans is that the 2016 field is so deep and talented. This notion seems to stem from the accomplished crop of governors that the party has cultivated. At first glance this seems to be the case, but upon further review, this group of big talents appears to be a collection of paper tigers. Take Rick Perry, the outgoing governor of Texas, who humiliated himself in the last presidential race despite his state’s good economic record. There is Bobby Jindal, often cited as a big thinker, who has also made himself a punch-line on the national stage when he wasn’t busy being the South’s most unpopular Republican. Even Mary Landrieu, the about-to-be-ousted senior senator from Louisiana boasts a high approval rating. Gov. Mike Pence checks a lot of boxes for the GOP, but he has a stunning lack of accomplishment for someone who has been in office as long as he has. Compare his record as governor to his predecessor and you will quickly see that Pence is as big a do-nothing governor as he was a do-nothing congressman. He also has no real experience dealing with the opposition, a gaping hole in the resume shared by Perry and Jindal.

4. Retreads – The rest of the field of pretenders is full of candidates who have run and lost before, and in some cases multiple times. Rick Santorum is planning to run again, despite having spent the last 15 years losing elections and saying embarrassing, bigoted nonsense every time he’s on television. Mike Huckabee, a moderately successful television and radio entertainer, is pondering another run to be President of Iowa, but like his previous campaign proved, he has little appeal outside the tiny, caucus electorate.  Mitt Romney has seen a bit of a comeback in the media, almost entirely due to the failures of the man who soundly defeated him. While he would have a few “I told you so” points to make in another race with Obama, he has no real appeal in a race against anyone else. Paul Ryan could be considered the “next-in-line” candidate due to his role as Romney’s defeated running mate, but he faces the same daunting realities that plagued other defeated VP nominees. Add in the fact that no member of the House has won the presidency in over a century and his path becomes even more unrealistic.

5. Real competitors – For all the problems the field has, there are a few bright spots who could lead to real challenges for Christie. Gov. Scott Walker of Wisconsin and Gov. John Kasich of Ohio can claim to be just as tested and even more accomplished than the New Jersey governor. True, only Christie has a powerful Democratic legislature to deal with, but Kasich and Walker faced fierce opposition from labor unions, and came out winners. While neither can command a stage or a late night show with Christie’s charisma, their mid-western charms may be compelling to voters in search of candidates to relate to. Most importantly, both men have shown they can win in purple states, which is one of Christie’s biggest assets. Both men have a long way to go to be able to stand toe-to-toe with the New Jersey governor, but they have a better shot than anyone else considering a run.

When you really examine this “deep bench” you begin to see that it doesn’t live up to the hype. Gov. Christie became a national star for a reason; he possesses the intangibles and talent that often accompany successful politicians. He can masterfully play both wrecking ball and common man, someone who can both feel your anger and your pain. He has accomplished a lot in a state long bereft of leadership, and with a mountain of problems thirty years in the making. He showed real leadership during a natural disaster that tore through his state. He demonstrated a level of accountability unseen on the presidential level in years during his marathon Bridgegate press conference. He has withstood a full-court assault from the media in an attempt to destroy his 2016 prospects. Through it all he has shown a remarkable resiliency, even more amazing considering just how blue his home state is. Some will nitpick about New Jersey’s economic numbers, or they’ll attempt to hype non-scandals, but these efforts will likely fail, just as they did when they were used to attack Arkansas Gov. Bill Clinton.

Gov. Chris Christie is the best chance the GOP has at defeating Hillary Clinton and taking back the White House, and it will take an extraordinary effort by someone far less talented to change that reality.

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