October 20, 2014

Poll Watch: ABC News/Washington Post 2016 Republican Nomination Survey

ABC News/Washington Post 2016 GOP Nomination Poll

  • Jeb Bush 13% [12%] (18%)
  • Rand Paul 12% [15%] (11%)
  • Mike Huckabee 12% [14%]
  • Paul Ryan 9% [12%] (18%)
  • Chris Christie 8% [9%] (14%)
  • Marco Rubio 8% [6%] (10%)
  • Ben Carson 7%
  • Rick Perry 6% [5%]
  • Ted Cruz 4% [7%] (12%)
  • Rick Santorum 4%
  • Scott Walker 2% [5%]
  • Bobby Jindal 2% [2%]
  • John Kasich 2% [1%]
  • Other (vol.) 1% [2%] (2%)
  • None of these (vol.) 3% [4%] (4%)
  • Would not vote (vol.) 0% [0%] (1%)
  • No opinion 9% [5%] (9%)

Survey of registered Republican and GOP-leaning voters was conducted October 9-12, 2014. Results from the poll conducted April 24-27, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted January 20-23, 2014 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 4:00 am. Filed under 2016, Jeb Bush, Poll Watch

October 14, 2014

It’s Complicated

Three weeks from tonight, if current trends hold, the Republican Party appears poised to achieve a solid, yet not overwhelming, victory in this year’s midterm elections. What we’re about to see is not quite a wave, but might best be described as a correction. The red states are red again, while the blue states remain blue, and the purple states seem willing to give Republicans a chance. The Republicans will almost certainly capture the Senate, and possibly do so quite solidly, and may actually attain their greatest majority in the House in several decades. All of this, however, does not suggest a Republican resurgence, but rather a diminishing Democratic government.

If the national zeitgeist were to be put into words right now, it would probably go something like this. Things just don’t feel quite right in America. We’re not exactly doing poorly. We’re not in the midst of a once-in-a-generation economic depression, or a clash of civilizations against a foreign empire. No, instead, the tableau is more complicated. The economy seems to be growing on paper, but it doesn’t quite feel that way on the ground. America’s economic engine is working, but not roaring. The unemployment rate has gone down, but people are still not getting promotions, not getting raises, and working two jobs to keep afloat. There’s no optimism out there. Instead, there’s acceptance of a new normal, and a creeping feeling that it doesn’t have to be this way.

Internationally, America seems to be faced with a number of difficult challenges. These challenges seem like they could have been prevented, but now that they exist, they don’t seem easily reparable. The spread of ISIS in the Middle East, and the presence of Ebola within American borders, shouldn’t have happened, but did, and solutions to these sorts of challenges seem, like the economic picture, complicated.

And then there’s the Democratic government. Democrats like “complicated.” Democrats are all about “complicated,” because Democrats believe that life is inherently complicated, and are always ready and willing to provide complicated solutions that will somehow make things even more complicated. Democrats will be the first to claim that the current complicated state of things is the best of all possible outcomes given what they had to work with.

But again, I think, the current zeitgeist goes something like this. We don’t quite buy that argument. Both parties made that argument before, in the 1970s, and then the 1980s came, and it turned out not to be true, and that America could make a comeback. So maybe, once again, it’s not so simple as to deem the future of America to be complicated. Maybe it’s just that our current leaders don’t have a better answer.

Enter Hillary Clinton. Once thought to be the inevitable 45th President, Mrs. Clinton has been coming down to earth in the polls as of late. Several polls have found her statistically tied with a number of Republicans in Iowa, an all important swing state won by Republicans in 2004, and Democrats in 2008 and 2012. Should other purple states follow suit, the Democrats may find that they have a fight on their hands, as memories of the Clinton years are eclipsed by the nagging feeling that the Democratic government simply doesn’t know what to do to make the country better.

Meanwhile, the Republicans still seem to lack a unified message, or optimistic tone, and continue to search for a national leader that can give the party meaning and purpose in the modern era, a full decade following its last presidential victory. Such a leader is not simply going to have to speak to the GOP base, but actually bring together the hodgepodge of voting blocs that will give Republicans victories in states like Florida, Virginia, Ohio, Colorado, Iowa, and New Hampshire, the purple states last won by George W. Bush.

Asking for a charismatic and optimistic leader who will end up on Mount Rushmore might be a bit much given the prospective field of Republican candidates. And that’s not necessarily a bad thing. After all, Democrats thought they had found the same in Mr. Obama, and look how that turned out. The nation may not be opposed to electing someone with less panache this time around, someone a bit more sober and perhaps just a tad boring, but at the same time, any such leader is still going to find that a personal connection with the American people remains a prerequisite for the presidency.

That personal connection was something that Mr. Romney, who is rumored to be considering yet another run, was never able to attain. Despite winning all three debates with Mr. Obama, Mr. Romney was unable to garner the support of a majority of Americans. The Republican Party, hungry for leadership, appears to be considering Mr. Romney again, but it is still far from clear whether Mr. Romney has the ability to be relatable, and to truly reach through the television screen and have a human moment with the American people.

Contra Mr. Romney is Mr. Huckabee, his former primary opponent, and continued outspoken former governor and cultural conservative. Mr. Huckabee is not lacking in human moments, but may not quite capture the zeitgeist of the era, which isn’t really about cultural conservatism versus cultural liberalism, and which is more about a Democratic government promising stagnation in perpetuity, and an American people that want an optimistic alternative filled with opportunity. Mr. Huckabee’s recent weigh in on same sex marriage, an issue on which the country seems to be moving away from his point of view, probably does represent the former’s governor’s genuine beliefs, but doesn’t necessarily bode well for a presidential campaign.

And then there’s Mr. Bush. The former Florida governor seems to be setting his sights on becoming the third member of the Bush family to find his way into the Oval Office, and, in ways that were unthinkable just six years ago, is beginning to seem to be a reasonable bet for the nomination were he to run. The zeitgeist, acting as confessor, seems to have given the most recent president named Bush absolution, and the nation’s problems no longer seem to be the result of an inept Republican president, but the inevitable woes of a nation that had once believed that peace and prosperity could last forever, with the focus now being on how to regain America’s lost prowess.

Mr. Bush’s argument for the nomination goes something like this: “Republicans, I am you. I am just as competent and intelligent as Mr. Romney, but I can avoid being branded just another rich guy. I proved that in Florida. I am no less pro-life than Mr. Huckabee, but no one can pigeonhole me as a socially conservative former preacher. I can appeal to Latino voters, and my wife and son prove that, and I can do so with the gravitas that my friend Mr. Rubio can’t yet muster. I can improve the country’s economic policies, without coming off as wonkish like Mr. Ryan, and I can do so without scaring seniors. Heck, I governed a state filled with seniors. I can win a majority, unlike Mr. Paul and Mr. Cruz, but I also have no animosity for the followers of Mr. Paul and Mr. Cruz, nor do they for me. I know how to win Florida. I’ll hold North Carolina. I can take back Virginia, because I know how to appeal to the concerns of the military without sounding brazen or hawkish. And we can take back Ohio, because despite my family name, I don’t come off as an elitist. And if we all work together, we can win back the swing voters of the Midwest and the Southwest who instinctively know that we as a nation can do better than this, but who need to hear it from someone who sounds eminently reasonable.”

And that may be what Americans will be looking for in their next president — someone relatable without being a rock star, and someone more competent than charismatic. If so, at least a couple of dark horse contenders who believe that they meet such criteria, such as Mr. Walker of Wisconsin, and Mr. Kasich of Ohio, may also begin to more seriously look at a country in need of a leader whose primary claim to fame will be uncomplicating that which is hopelessly complicated.

Then there’s Mr. Christie, a man who appears to be eyeing the White House, despite his own path to the Oval Office being quite complicated in and of itself. Mr. Christie most assuredly has the charisma and the ability to personally connect with the American people and to make a formidable candidate in a national election. But where does Mr. Christie find his base? Is Mr. Christie going to bring lots of new voters into Republican primaries, tilting the culturally conservative Iowa caucus or the gritty, provincial, slightly paleoconservative New Hampshire primaries towards his own personal version of conservatism and Republicanism? If so, Mr. Christie has no time to spare in starting to build such a coalition, and in coming up with the ideas on which this coalition is to be built, neither of which has happened yet. Despite a personality that is larger than life, Mr. Christie will need more than personality to establish a foothold in an early primary state, or put together a coalition that will take the nomination, let alone the presidency.

To be sure, Mrs. Clinton is still the frontrunner for 2016. But a bit less of a frontrunner than she was six months ago. And perhaps six months from now, she’ll be even less of a frontrunner, as Americans, tired of economic and global complications, decide to send the Democratic government a Dear John note with the message, “It’s complicated.”

Poll Watch: PPP (D) Kansas 2016 Presidential Survey

PPP (D) Kansas 2016 Presidential Poll 

  • Jeb Bush (R) 48% {46%} [45%] (50%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 37% {40%} [39%] (41%)
  • Mike Huckabee (R) 47% {45%} [46%] (49%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 41% {42%} [41%] (42%)
  • Rand Paul (R) 45% {43%} [45%] (48%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 40% {41%} [41%] (41%)
  • Chris Christie (R) 42% {42%} [42%] (46%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 38% {40%} [38%] (39%)
  • Ted Cruz (R) 44% {41%} [43%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 41% {44%} [42%]
Among Men

  • Jeb Bush (R) 53% {49%} [47%] (57%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 33% {34%} [35%] (35%)
  • Mike Huckabee (R) 50% {52%} [48%] (55%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 39% {38%} [39%] (36%)
  • Rand Paul (R) 51% {49%} [49%] (54%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 35% {36%} [40%] (37%)
  • Chris Christie (R) 46% {50%} [47%] (50%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 35% {34%} [35%] (36%)
  • Ted Cruz (R) 49% {47%} [47%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 39% {40%} [42%]

Among Women 

  • Jeb Bush (R) 43% {43%} [42%] (43%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 41% {44%} [43%] (46%)
  • Mike Huckabee (R) 44% {39%} [45%] (44%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 43% {46%} [42%] (46%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 43% {46%} [43%] (45%)
  • Rand Paul (R) 39% {38%} [40%] (42%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 41% {46%} [40%] (42%)
  • Chris Christie (R) 39% {35%} [38%] (42%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 43% {47%} [43%] 
  • Ted Cruz (R) 39% {35%} [40%]

Survey of 1,081 likely voters was conducted October 9-12, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 3.0 percentage points. Party ID: 52% {51%} [50%] (47%) Republican; 28% {26%} [30%] (28%) Democrat; 20% {22%} [20%] (25%) Independent/Other.  Political ideology: 31% {36%} [31%] (32%) Moderate; 26% {24%} [22%] (24%) Somewhat conservative; 21% {19%} [24%] (19%) Very conservative; 14% {14%}[16%] (16%) Somewhat liberal; 8% {6%} [7%] (9%) Very liberal.Results from the poll conducted September 11-14, 2014 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 14-17, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted February 18-20, 2014are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 4:00 am. Filed under 2016, Hillary Clinton, Jeb Bush, Mike Huckabee, Poll Watch, Rand Paul

October 10, 2014

Poll Watch: UNH/WMUR New Hampshire 2016 Republican Primary Survey

UNH/WMUR New Hampshire 2016 GOP Primary Poll

  • Jeb Bush 15% (11%) {7%} [3%] (8%) {10%} [5%] (5%)
  • Chris Christie 12% (19%) {12%} [9%] (16%) {21%} [11%] (14%)
  • Mike Huckabee 9% (8%)
  • Rand Paul 7% (14%) {15%} [16%] (17%) {16%} [15%] (8%)
  • Paul Ryan 6% (5%) {13%} [6%] (9%) {8%} [11%] (11%)
  • Ted Cruz 6% (5%) {7%} [3%] (6%) {4%} [2%] (1%)
  • Marco Rubio 3% (8%) {2%} [6%] (4%) {6%} [15%] (12%)
  • Bobby Jindal 3% (5%) {3%} [2%] (2%)
  • Scott Walker 3% (3%) {3%} [2%] (2%) {2%} [1%] (3%)
  • Rick Perry 2% (2%) {1%} [2%] (1%) {4%}
  • Rick Santorum 2% (1%) {1%} (4%) {4%} [4%] (3%)
  • Rob Portman 0% (1%) {0%} [0%] (0%) {0%} [1%] (0%)
  • John Kasich 0% (0%)
  • Someone else 3% (3%) {3%} [6%] (3%) {3%} [0%] (2%)
  • Don’t know yet 28% (15%) {15%} [18%] (21%) {20%} [23%] (20%)

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

  • Paul Ryan 51% (55%) {60%} [48%] (54%) {66%} [68%] (61%) / 12% (18%) {15%} [20%] (17%) {18%} [13%] (19%) {+39%}
  • Marco Rubio 43% (46%) {52%} [42%] (41%) {47%} [59%] (56%) / 14% (19%) {12%} [11%] (18%) {14%} [8%] (6%) {+29%}
  • Rick Perry 49% (39%) {36%} [32%] (36%) {39%} / 21% (32%) {30%} [27%] (30%) {37%} {+28%}
  • Rand Paul 50% (53%) {56%} [49%] (52%) {57%} [54%] (45%) / 23% (23%) {21%} [14%] (24%) {20%} [19%] (26%) {+27%}
  • Scott Walker 33% (37%) {38%} [30%] (29%) {42%} [38%] (37%) / 6% (10%) {12%} [9%] (8%) {13%} [8%] (14%) {+27%}
  • Jeb Bush 49% (45%) {45%} [46%] (47%) {53%} [48%] (53%) / 28% (31%) {35%} [25%] (27%) {27%} [34%] (31%) {+21%}
  • Mike Huckabee 48% (46%) / 28% (30%) {+20%}
  • Bobby Jindal 31% (39%) {30%} {39%} [30%] (31%) / 14% (13%) {17%} {12%} [16%] (21%) {+17%}
  • Ted Cruz 33% (39%) {42%} [37%] (32%) {29%} [21%] (18%) / 22% (22%) {18%} [18%] (19%) {17%} [12%] (14%) {+11%}
  • Chris Christie 44% (46%) {43%} [43%] (49%) {59%} [56%] (60%) / 35% (36%) {42%} [33%] (23%) {24%} [26%] (21%) {+9%}
  • Rob Portman 14% (19%) {11%} [15%] (14%) {15%} [13%] (20%) / 8% (8%) {15%} [8%] (8%) {19%} [11%] (14%) {+6%}
  • John Kasich 17% (22%) (12%) {28%} / 12% (12%) (9%) {16%} {+5%}
  • Rick Santorum 31% (38%) {36%} (39%) {44%} [39%] (40%) / 31% (30%) {31%} (27%) {37%} [38%] (42%) {0%}

Survey of 275 likely Republican primary voters was conducted September 29 – October 5, 2014.  The margin of error is +/- 5.9 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted June 19 – July 1, 2014 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted April 1-9, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted January 21-26, 2014 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conductedOctober 7-16, 2013 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conductedJuly 18-29, 2013 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 4-9, 2013 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted January 27 – February 3, 2013 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 9:54 am. Filed under 2016, Jeb Bush, New Hampshire Primary, Poll Watch

October 8, 2014

Poll Watch: PPP (D) Georgia 2016 Presidential Survey

PPP (D) Georgia 2016 Presidential Poll

  • Jeb Bush (R) 45% [45%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 44% [45%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 47% [48%]
  • Rand Paul (R) 44% [43%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 48%
  • Mike Huckabee (R) 45%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 46% [42%]
  • Chris Christie (R) 41% [44%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 47%
  • Ted Cruz (R) 41%
Among Independents

  • Jeb Bush (R) 44% [40%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 29% [39%]
  • Rand Paul (R) 47% [45%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 36% [40%]
  • Mike Huckabee (R) 45%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 37%
  • Chris Christie (R) 42% [43%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 34% [32%]
  • Ted Cruz (R) 39%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 36%
Among Moderates

  • Hillary Clinton (D) 54% [62%]
  • Jeb Bush (R) 30% [24%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 57% [65%]
  • Rand Paul (R) 30% [26%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 63%
  • Mike Huckabee (R) 26%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 56% [56%]
  • Chris Christie (R) 29% [26%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 62%
  • Ted Cruz (R) 21%
Among Men

  • Jeb Bush (R) 51% [52%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 37% [38%]
  • Rand Paul (R) 53% [49%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 39% [41%]
  • Mike Huckabee (R) 54%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 41%
  • Chris Christie (R) 47% [51%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 39% [35%]
  • Ted Cruz (R) 49%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 41%
Among Women

  • Hillary Clinton (D) 50% [52%]
  • Jeb Bush (R) 39% [40%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 54% [53%]
  • Rand Paul (R) 37% [37%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 54%
  • Mike Huckabee (R) 37%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 52% [48%]
  • Chris Christie (R) 36% [37%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 52%
  • Ted Cruz (R) 34%
Survey of 895 likely voters was conducted October 2-5, 2014.  The margin of error is +/- 3.3 percentage points. Party ID: 38% [39%] Republican; 37% [38%] Democrat; 25% [23%] Independent/Other.  Political ideology: 30% [30%] Moderate; 22% [21%] Somewhat conservative; 20% [22%] Very conservative; 15% [18%] Somewhat liberal; 12% [9%] Very liberal.  Results from the poll conducted August 2-5, 2013 are in square brackets.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 5:00 am. Filed under 2016, Hillary Clinton, Jeb Bush

October 5, 2014

Poll Watch: McClatchy-Marist 2016 Republican Nomination Survey

McClatchy-Marist 2016 GOP Nomination Poll

  • Jeb Bush 15% {13%} [13%] (8%) {8%} [10%] (10%)
  • Paul Ryan 13% {9%} [12%] (9%) {12%} [11%] (13%)
  • Rand Paul 13% {7%} [12%] (9%) {9%} [12%] (9%)
  • Chris Christie 12% {13%} [12%] (13%) {16%} [18%] (15%)
  • Rick Perry 7% {7%} [3%] (2%) {6%} [3%] (4%)
  • Marco Rubio 6% {9%} [7%] (12%) {7%} [7%] (12%)
  • Ted Cruz 4% {10%} [4%] (5%) {5%} [10%] (7%)
  • Bobby Jindal 4% {2%} [4%] {3%} (1%)
  • Rick Santorum 3% {3%} [3%] (2%) {5%} [4%] (2%)
  • Scott Walker 3% {4%} [5%] (7%) {4%} [4%] (2%)
  • Undecided 21% {23%} [14%] (12%) {25%} [13%] (25%)

Among Republicans

  • Paul Ryan 15% {11%} [12%] (8%) {12%} [13%]
  • Chris Christie 14% {10%} [14%] (13%) {17%} [17%]
  • Jeb Bush 14% {17%} [14%] (11%) {9%} [11%]
  • Rand Paul 10% {6%} [8%] (7%) {10%} [8%]
  • Rick Perry 8% {4%} [4%] (3%) {7%} [2%]
  • Marco Rubio 6% {10%} [7%] (12%) {5%} [5%]
  • Scott Walker 3% {5%} [4%] (5%) {3%} [5%]
  • Bobby Jindal 3% {1%} [3%] {2%}
  • Ted Cruz 2% {9%} [3%] (5%) {5%} [10%]
  • Rick Santorum 2% {3%} [2%] (1%) {7%} [4%]
  • Undecided 23% {24%} [16%] (13%) {24%} [16%]

Among Independents

  • Rand Paul 19% {8%} [19%] (14%) {8%} [20%]
  • Jeb Bush 17% {8%} [11%] (4%) {6%} [9%]
  • Paul Ryan 9% {7%} [12%] (11%) {13%} [8%]
  • Ted Cruz 8% {12%} [5%] (5%) {6%} [11%]
  • Chris Christie 7% {16%} [8%] (14%) {14%} [20%]
  • Bobby Jindal 6% {5%} [4%] {4%}
  • Rick Perry 5% {11%} [0%] (0%) {4%} [3%]
  • Marco Rubio 5% {6%} [8%] (11%) {10%} [9%]
  • Rick Santorum 4% {4%} [5%] (2%) {3%} [3%]
  • Scott Walker 2% {2%} [7%] (8%) {5%} [3%]
  • Undecided 17% {21%} [9%] (10%) {26%} [8%]

Among Men

  • Paul Ryan 17% {11%} [11%] (10%) {11%} [9%] (12%)
  • Jeb Bush 15% {11%} [14%] (6%) {7%} [10%] (14%)
  • Rand Paul 15% {8%} [14%] (11%) {12%} [15%] (9%)
  • Chris Christie 10% {15%} [10%] (13%) {19%} [20%] (17%)
  • Rick Perry 6% {8%} [1%] (3%) {6%} [4%] (6%)
  • Marco Rubio 5% {7%} [5%] (11%) {9%} [6%] (16%)
  • Ted Cruz 5% {16%} [4%] (6%) {6%} [12%] (7%)
  • Bobby Jindal 5% {4%} [4%] {3%} (1%)
  • Rick Santorum 3% {3%} [4%] (2%) {6%} [1%] (1%)
  • Scott Walker 2% {4%} [6%] (10%) {5%} [4%] (2%)
  • Undecided 17% {14%} [13%] (10%) {16%} [11%] (15%)

Among Women

  • Chris Christie 14% {11%} [14%] (14%) {13%} [16%] (13%)
  • Jeb Bush 14% {15%} [11%] (11%) {9%} [10%] (6%)
  • Rand Paul 11% {6%} [10%] (7%) {7%} [9%] (8%)
  • Paul Ryan 8% {7%} [12%] (7%) {13%} [13%] (14%)
  • Rick Perry 8% {6%} [4%] (1%) {6%} [1%] (2%)
  • Marco Rubio 7% {10%} [9%] (13%) {5%} [8%] (8%)
  • Bobby Jindal 3% {1%} [4%] {3%} (1%)
  • Ted Cruz 3% {5%} [3%] (3%) {5%} [9%] (6%)
  • Scott Walker 3% {4%} [3%] (3%) {2%} [4%] (2%)
  • Rick Santorum 3% {4%} [2%] (1%) {5%} [6%] (4%)
  • Undecided 26% {30%} [14%] (14%) {33%} [15%] (34%)

Survey of 376 registered Republicans and GOP-leaning Independents was conducted August 4-7, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 5.1 percentage points. Party ID: 67% {57%} [63%] (64%) {65%} [62%] (65%) Republican; 33% {43%} [37%] (36%) {35%} [38%] (35%) Independent. Results from the poll conducted August 4-7, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted April 7-10, 2014 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 4-9, 2014 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted January 12-14, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted December 3-5, 2013 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 15-18, 2013 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 8:00 am. Filed under 2016, Jeb Bush, Poll Watch

October 4, 2014

Poll Watch: McClatchy-Marist 2016 National Presidential Survey

  • Hillary Clinton (D) 51% (47%) {53%} [58%] (50%) {48%} [47%] (46%)
  • Chris Christie (R) 42% (41%) {42%} [37%] (37%) {45%} [41%] (43%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 52% (48%) {54%} [58%] {55%} [50%] (52%)
  • Rand Paul (R) 43% (42%) {40%} [38%] {40%} [38%] (41%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 53% (48%) {55%} [58%] {53%} [48%] (54%)
  • Jeb Bush (R) 42% (41%) {39%} [38%] {41%} [40%] (38%)

National survey of 884 registered voters was conducted September 24-29, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 3.3 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted August 4-7, 2014 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted April 7-10, 2014 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 4-9, 2014 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 12-14, 2014 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted December 3-5, 2013 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 15-18, 2013 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 25-27, 2013 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 1:13 pm. Filed under 2016, Chris Christie, Hillary Clinton, Jeb Bush, Poll Watch, Rand Paul

October 2, 2014

Poll Watch: Suffolk University/USA Today Kansas 2016 Republican Primary Survey

Suffolk University/USA Today Kansas 2016 GOP Primary Poll

  • Jeb Bush 15.36%
  • Mike Huckabee 14.23%
  • Chris Christie 8.99%
  • Ted Cruz 7.87%
  • Rick Perry 6.74%
  • Paul Ryan 5.99%
  • Rand Paul 5.62%
  • Marco Rubio 5.62%
  • Scott Walker 3.75%
  • Rick Santorum 1.50%
  • Bobby Jindal 1.12%
  • John Kasich 0.75%
  • Carly Fiorina 0.37%
  • Other 4.12%
  • Undecided 16.85%

Survey of 267 Republican primary voters was conducted September 27-30, 2014.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 11:00 am. Filed under 2016, Jeb Bush, Poll Watch

September 24, 2014

Poll Watch: PPP (D) Arkansas 2016 Presidential Survey

  • Mike Huckabee (R) 53% [55%] (47%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 41% [39%] (44%)
  • Jeb Bush (R) 46% [46%] (41%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 42% [41%] (46%)
  • Rand Paul (R) 45% [45%] (42%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 43% [42%] (48%)
  • Ted Cruz (R) 44% [46%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 43% [42%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 42% [41%] (47%)
  • Chris Christie (R) 41% [42%] (38%)

Among Independents

  • Mike Huckabee (R) 62% [60%] (56%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 24% [29%] (31%)
  • Jeb Bush (R) 55% [46%] (44%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 23% [31%] (33%)
  • Rand Paul (R) 55% [50%] (51%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 24% [30%] (35%)
  • Ted Cruz (R) 53% [49%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 26% [32%]
  • Chris Christie (R) 45% [42%] (44%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 28% [32%] (33%)

Among Moderates

  • Hillary Clinton (D) 62% [52%] (58%)
  • Mike Huckabee (R) 33% [38%] (30%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 60% [54%] (64%)
  • Jeb Bush (R) 27% [29%] (23%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 63% [57%] (66%)
  • Rand Paul (R) 25% [23%] (24%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 65% [57%]
  • Ted Cruz (R) 23% [26%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 63% [55%] (60%)
  • Chris Christie (R) 25% [24%] (27%)

Among Men

  • Mike Huckabee (R) 58% [59%] (50%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 37% [35%] (38%)
  • Jeb Bush (R) 54% [51%] (44%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 34% [36%] (38%)
  • Rand Paul (R) 53% [49%] (47%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 36% [38%] (43%)
  • Ted Cruz (R) 52% [51%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 38% [39%]
  • Chris Christie (R) 47% [48%] (41%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 38% [37%] (40%)

Among Women

  • Mike Huckabee (R) 48% [51%] (46%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 44% [43%] (50%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 48% [45%] (52%)
  • Jeb Bush (R) 38% [42%] (38%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 48% [45%] (52%)
  • Rand Paul (R) 37% [41%] (38%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 48% [45%]
  • Ted Cruz (R) 37% [40%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 47% [45%] (52%)
  • Chris Christie (R) 36% [37%] (36%)

Do you think Mike Huckabee should run for President in 2016, or not?

  • Think he should run 45% [42%] (39%)
  • Think he should not 43% [45%] (46%)
  • Not sure 13% [13%] (15%)

Survey of 1,453 likely voters was conducted September 18-21, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 2.6 percentage points. Party ID: 39% [35%] (41%) Democrat; 31% [34%] (27%) Republican; 30% [31%] (32%)Independent/Other.  Political ideology: 27% [27%] (23%) Somewhat conservative; 26% [28%] (28%) Moderate; 22% [22%] (23%) Very conservative; 13% [14%] (16%) Somewhat liberal; 11% [10%] (10%) Very liberal. Results from the poll conducted August 1-3, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted April 25-27, 2014 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 11:02 am. Filed under 2016, Hillary Clinton, Jeb Bush, Mike Huckabee, Poll Watch, Rand Paul, Ted Cruz

September 17, 2014

Poll Watch: PPP (D) North Carolina 2016 Presidential Survey

PPP (D) North Carolina 2016 Presidential Poll

  • Mike Huckabee (R) 46% (44%) {43%} [43%] (43%) {42%} [43%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 45% (45%) {46%} [47%] (48%) {49%} [48%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 46% (47%) {46%} [45%] (47%) {49%} [47%] (47%) {48%} [50%] (52%) 
  • Rand Paul (R) 41% (42%) {43%} [44%] (43%) {43%} [44%] (43%) {44%} [41%] (40%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 45% (45%) {45%} [44%] (46%) {46%} [45%] (42%) {42%} [43%]
  • Chris Christie (R) 38% (38%) {41%} [40%] (44%) {42%} [42%](43%) {45%} [46%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 48% (47%) (47%) {49%} [51%]
  • Ted Cruz (R) 40% (41%) (41%) {41%} [39%]

(more…)

by @ 10:15 am. Filed under 2016, Hillary Clinton, Jeb Bush, Mike Huckabee, Poll Watch

September 16, 2014

Poll Watch: PPP (D) Kansas 2016 Presidential Survey

PPP (D) Kansas 2016 Presidential Poll 

  • Jeb Bush (R) 46% [45%] (50%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 40% [39%] (41%)
  • Mike Huckabee (R) 45% [46%] (49%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 42% [41%] (42%)
  • Chris Christie (R) 42% [42%] (46%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 40% [38%] (39%)
  • Rand Paul (R) 43% [45%] (48%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 41% [41%] (41%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 44% [42%]
  • Ted Cruz (R) 41% [43%]
 Among Men
  • Jeb Bush (R) 49% [47%] (57%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 34% [35%] (35%)
  • Mike Huckabee (R) 52% [48%] (55%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 38% [39%] (36%)
  • Chris Christie (R) 50% [47%] (50%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 34% [35%] (36%)
  • Rand Paul (R) 49% [49%] (54%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 36% [40%] (37%)
  • Ted Cruz (R) 47% [47%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 40% [42%]

Among Women 

  • Hillary Clinton (D) 44% [43%] (46%)
  • Jeb Bush (R) 43% [42%] (43%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 46% [42%] (46%)
  • Mike Huckabee (R) 39% [45%] (44%) 
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 46% [40%] (42%)
  • Chris Christie (R) 35% [38%] (42%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 46% [43%] (45%)
  • Rand Paul (R) 38% [40%] (42%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 47% [43%] 
  • Ted Cruz (R) 35% [40%]
 Survey of 1,328 likely voters was conducted September 11-14, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 2.7 percentage points. Party ID: 51% [50%](47%) Republican; 26% [30%] (28%) Democrat; 22% [20%] (25%) Independent/Other.  Political ideology: 36% [31%] (32%) Moderate;24% [22%] (24%) Somewhat conservative; 19% [24%] (19%) Very conservative; 14% [16%] (16%) Somewhat liberal; 6% [7%] (9%) Very liberal. Results from the poll conducted August 14-17, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted February 18-20, 2014are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 1:20 pm. Filed under 2016, Chris Christie, Hillary Clinton, Jeb Bush, Mike Huckabee, Poll Watch, Rand Paul

September 14, 2014

Poll Watch: USA Today/Suffolk University Michigan 2016 Republican Primary Survey

USA Today/Suffolk University Michigan 2016 GOP Primary Poll

  • Jeb Bush 11.17%
  • Mike Huckabee 11.17%
  • Marco Rubio 9.57%
  • Rand Paul 6.91%
  • Chris Christie 6.38%
  • Rick Perry 6.38%
  • Scott Walker 6.38%
  • Paul Ryan 5.85%
  • Ted Cruz 5.32%
  • Rick Santorum 5.32%
  • Bobby Jindal 2.66%
  • Jon Huntsman 2.13%
  • John Kasich 0.53%
  • Undecided 17.02%

Survey of 188 likely GOP primary voters was conducted September 6-10, 2014.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 10:27 am. Filed under 2016, Jeb Bush, Mike Huckabee, Poll Watch

September 11, 2014

Poll Watch: PPP (D) Florida 2016 Presidential Survey

PPP (D) Florida 2016 Presidential Poll

  • Hillary Clinton (D) 46% {46%} [53%] (49%)
  • Jeb Bush (R) 44% {45%} [40%] (44%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 49% {48%} [56%] (50%)
  • Marco Rubio (R) 42% {44%} [40%] (46%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 46% {46%}
  • Chris Christie (R) 38% {38%}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 48% {48%}
  • Rand Paul (R) 40% {42%}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 49% {48%}
  • Mike Huckabee (R) 40% {41%}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 51% {50%}
  • Ted Cruz (R) 36% {39%}

Among Men

  • Hillary Clinton (D) 47% {43%} [47%] (43%)
  • Jeb Bush (R) 42% {50%} [46%] (52%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 49% {42%} [50%] (43%)
  • Marco Rubio (R) 43% {49%} [46%] (53%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 46% {40%}
  • Chris Christie (R) 40% {44%}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 48% {43%}
  • Rand Paul (R) 41% {48%}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 48% {44%}
  • Mike Huckabee (R) 42% {47%}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 51% {46%}
  • Ted Cruz (R) 38% {46%}

Among Women

  • Jeb Bush (R) 46% {41%} [35%] (36%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 45% {49%} [58%] (54%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 49% {53%} [61%] (56%)
  • Marco Rubio (R) 40% {39%} [35%] (39%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 47% {51%}
  • Chris Christie (R) 37% {34%}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 49% {53%}
  • Rand Paul (R) 39% {37%}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 50% {52%}
  • Mike Huckabee (R) 39% {36%}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 52% {54%}
  • Ted Cruz (R) 36% {33%}

Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Marco Rubio’s job performance?

  • Approve 44% {45%} [44%] (49%)
  • Disapprove 41% {40%} [43%] (36%)

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Jeb Bush?

  • Favorable 50% {51%} [50%] (51%)
  • Unfavorable 35% {35%} [37%] (35%)

Do you think Jeb Bush should run for President in 2016, or not?

  • He should 31% {35%} [33%] (32%)
  • He should not 53% {50%} [51%] (53%)

Do you think Marco Rubio should run for President in 2016, or not?

  • He should 32% {27%} [37%] (38%)
  • He should not 53% {59%} [53%] (49%)

Survey of 818 likely voters was conducted September 4-7, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 3.4 percentage points. Party ID: 40% {38%} [42%] (44%) Democrat; 38% {37%} [37%] (38%) Republican; 22% {25%} [22%] (18%) Independent/Other.  Political ideology: 31% {28%} [32%] (33%) Moderate; 23% {25%} [21%] (21%) Somewhat conservative; 19% {22%} [17%] (17%) Somewhat liberal; 13% {15%}[17%] (18%) Very conservative; 13% {11%} [13%] (12%) Very liberal.  Results from the poll conducted June 6-9, 2014 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 15-18, 2013 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 11-13, 2013are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 6:15 pm. Filed under 2016, Herman Cain, Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, Poll Watch

September 3, 2014

Poll Watch: Gravis Marketing (R) Florida 2016 Presidential Survey

Gravis Marketing (R) Florida 2016 Presidential Poll

  • Hillary Clinton (D) 39%
  • Jeb Bush (R) 37%
  • Unsure 24%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 44%
  • Marco Rubio (R) 35%
  • Unsure 21%

Survey of 859 registered voters was conducted August 14-24, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points. Party ID: 37% Democrat;36% Republican; 27% Independent/Other

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 10:45 am. Filed under 2016, Hillary Clinton, Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio

August 23, 2014

Poll Watch: PPP (D) Kansas 2016 Presidential Survey

PPP (D) Kansas 2016 Presidential Poll 

  • Jeb Bush (R) 45% (50%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 39% (41%)
  • Mike Huckabee (R) 46% (49%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 41% (42%)
  • Chris Christie (R) 42% (46%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 38% (39%)
  • Rand Paul (R) 45% (48%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 41% (41%)
  • Ted Cruz (R) 43%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 42%

Among Men

  • Jeb Bush (R) 47% (57%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 35% (35%)
  • Mike Huckabee (R) 48% (55%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 39% (36%)
  • Chris Christie (R) 47% (50%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 35% (36%)
  • Rand Paul (R) 49% (54%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 40% (37%)
  • Ted Cruz (R) 47%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 42%

Among Women 

  • Hillary Clinton (D) 43% (46%)
  • Jeb Bush (R) 42% (43%)
  • Mike Huckabee (R) 45% (44%)  
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 42% (46%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 40% (42%)
  • Chris Christie (R) 38% (42%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 43% (45%)
  • Rand Paul (R) 40% (42%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 43% 
  • Ted Cruz (R) 40%

Survey of 903 likely voters was conducted August 14-17, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 3.3 percentage points. Party ID: 50% (47%) Republican; 30% (28%) Democrat; 20% (25%) Independent/Other.  Political ideology: 31% (32%) Moderate; 24% (19%) Very conservative; 22% (24%) Somewhat conservative; 16% (16%) Somewhat liberal; 7% (9%) Very liberal. Results from the poll conducted February 18-20, 2014 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 9:35 am. Filed under 2016, Chris Christie, Jeb Bush, Mike Huckabee, Poll Watch, Rand Paul, Ted Cruz

August 14, 2014

Poll Watch: PPP (D) Kentucky 2016 Presidential Survey

PPP (D) Kentucky 2016 Presidential Poll 

  • Rand Paul (R) 49% {49%} [45%] (42%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 43% {43%} [45%] (47%)
  • Jeb Bush (R) 48% {46%}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 43% {42%}
  • Mike Huckabee (R) 47%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 44%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 44% {40%}
  • Chris Christie (R) 41% {44%}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 46% {44%}
  • Ted Cruz (R) 41% {41%} 

Among Men

  • Rand Paul (R) 56% {53%} [52%] (44%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 37% {40%} [40%] (42%)
  • Jeb Bush (R) 54% {51%}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 37% {38%}
  • Mike Huckabee (R) 55%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 37% 
  • Chris Christie (R) 47% {48%}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 39% {36%}
  • Ted Cruz (R) 50% {48%}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 40% {41%}

Among Women 

  • Hillary Clinton (D) 48% {46%} [50%] (51%)
  • Rand Paul (R) 43% {45%} [39%] (40%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 48% {46%}
  • Jeb Bush (R) 42% {42%}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 50% 
  • Mike Huckabee (R) 40%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 48% {43%}
  • Chris Christie (R) 36% {41%}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 51% {47%}
  • Ted Cruz (R) 34% {34%}

Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Rand Paul’s job performance? 

  • Approve 47% {49%} [46%] (43%)
  • Disapprove 39% {40%} [39%] (39%)  

Do you think Rand Paul should run for President in 2016, or not? 

  • He should run 34% {35%} [30%]
  • He should not 50% {49%} [50%] 

Survey of 991 Kentucky voters was conducted August 7-10, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 3.1 percentage points. Party ID: 52% {52%} [51%] (52%) Democrat; 38% {39%} [39%] (37%) Republican; 10% {9%} [10%] (11%) Independent/Other. Political ideology: 28% {31%} [28%] (29%) Moderate; 25% {27%} [26%] (24%) Somewhat conservative; 20% {19%} [20%] (23%) Very conservative; 17% {14%}[15%] (15%) Somewhat liberal; 10% {9%} [10%] (9%) Very liberal. Results from the poll conducted December 12-15, 2013 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 5-7, 2013 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted December 7-9, 2012 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 11:30 am. Filed under 2016, Hillary Clinton, Jeb Bush, Poll Watch, Rand Paul, Ted Cruz

Poll Watch: McClatchy-Marist 2016 Republican Nomination Survey

McClatchy-Marist 2016 GOP Nomination Poll 

  • Jeb Bush 13% [13%] (8%) {8%} [10%] (10%)
  • Chris Christie 13% [12%] (13%) {16%} [18%] (15%)
  • Ted Cruz 10% [4%] (5%) {5%} [10%] (7%)
  • Paul Ryan 9% [12%] (9%) {12%} [11%] (13%)
  • Marco Rubio 9% [7%] (12%) {7%} [7%] (12%)
  • Rick Perry 7% [3%] (2%) {6%} [3%] (4%)
  • Rand Paul 7% [12%] (9%) {9%} [12%] (9%)
  • Scott Walker 4% [5%] (7%) {4%} [4%] (2%)
  • Rick Santorum 3% [3%] (2%) {5%} [4%] (2%)
  • Bobby Jindal 2% [4%] {3%} (1%)
  • Undecided 23% [14%] (12%) {25%} [13%] (25%)

Survey of 342 registered Republicans and GOP-leaning Independents was conducted August 4, 2014The margin of error is +/- 5.3 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted April 7-10, 2014 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 4-9, 2014 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted January 12-14, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted December 3-5, 2013 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 15-18, 2013 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 10:00 am. Filed under 2016, Chris Christie, Jeb Bush, Poll Watch

August 7, 2014

Poll Watch: Civitas Institute (R) North Carolina 2016 GOP Primary Survey

Civitas Institute (R) North Carolina 2016 GOP Primary Poll

  • Jeb Bush 16%
  • Chris Christie 9%
  • Rand Paul 9%
  • Marco Rubio 8%
  • Rick Perry 7%
  • Ted Cruz 7%
  • Scott Walker 3%
  • Bobby Jindal 3%
  • Rick Santorum 3%

Survey of 336 Republican and GOP-leaning Independent primary voters was conducted July 28-29, 2014. Party ID: 62% Republican; 38% Independent. Click here to view crosstabs.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 3:30 pm. Filed under 2016, Jeb Bush, Poll Watch

Poll Watch: Civitas Institute (R) North Carolina 2016 Presidential Survey

Civitas Institute (R) North Carolina 2016 Presidential Poll

  • Chris Christie (R) 47%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 46%
  • Jeb Bush (R) 48%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 47%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 48%
  • Rand Paul (R) 47%
  • Chris Christie (R) 49%
  • Joe Biden (D) 42%
  • Jeb Bush (R) 50%
  • Joe Biden (D) 44%
  • Rand Paul (R) 49%
  • Joe Biden (D) 44%

Survey of 600 registered voters was conducted July 28-29, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points. Click here to view crosstabs.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 2:45 pm. Filed under 2016, Chris Christie, Hillary Clinton, Jeb Bush, Joe Biden, Poll Watch, Rand Paul

Poll Watch: PPP (D) Arkansas 2016 Presidential Survey

  • Mike Huckabee (R) 55% (47%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 39% (44%)
  • Jeb Bush (R) 46% (41%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 41% (46%)
  • Ted Cruz (R) 46%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 42%
  • Rand Paul (R) 45% (42%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 42% (48%)
  • Chris Christie (R) 42% (38%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 41% (47%)

Among Independents

  • Mike Huckabee (R) 60% (56%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 29% (31%)
  • Jeb Bush (R) 46% (44%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 31% (33%)
  • Ted Cruz (R) 49%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 32%
  • Rand Paul (R) 50% (51%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 30% (35%)
  • Chris Christie (R) 42% (44%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 32% (33%)

Among Moderates

  • Hillary Clinton (D) 52% (58%)
  • Mike Huckabee (R) 38% (30%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 54% (64%)
  • Jeb Bush (R) 29% (23%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 57%
  • Ted Cruz (R) 26%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 57% (66%)
  • Rand Paul (R) 23% (24%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 55% (60%)
  • Chris Christie (R) 24% (27%)

Among Men

  • Mike Huckabee (R) 59% (50%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 35% (38%)
  • Jeb Bush (R) 51% (44%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 36% (38%)
  • Ted Cruz (R) 51%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 39%
  • Rand Paul (R) 49% (47%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 38% (43%)
  • Chris Christie (R) 48% (41%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 37% (40%)

Among Women

  • Mike Huckabee (R) 51% (46%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 43% (50%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 45% (52%)
  • Jeb Bush (R) 42% (38%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 45%
  • Ted Cruz (R) 40%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 45% (52%)
  • Rand Paul (R) 41% (38%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 45% (52%)
  • Chris Christie (R) 37% (36%)

Do you think Mike Huckabee should run for President in 2016, or not?

  • Think he should run 42% (39%)
  • Think he should not 45% (46%)
  • Not sure 13% (15%)

Survey of 1,066 Arkansas voters was conducted August 1-3, 2014.  The margin of error is +/- 3.0 percentage points. Party ID: 35% (41%)Democrat; 34% (27%) Republican; 31% (32%) Independent/Other.  Political ideology: 28% (28%) Moderate; 27% (23%) Somewhat conservative; 22% (23%) Very conservative; 14% (16%) Somewhat liberal; 10% (10%) Very liberal. Results from the poll conducted April 25-27, 2014 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 11:15 am. Filed under 2016, Chris Christie, Hillary Clinton, Jeb Bush, Mike Huckabee, Poll Watch, Rand Paul, Ted Cruz

July 29, 2014

Poll Watch: Fox News 2016 Republican Nomination Survey

Fox News 2016 GOP Nomination Poll

  • Jeb Bush 12% [14%] (12%)
  • Rick Perry 12% [5%] (3%)
  • Rand Paul 11% [14%] (11%)
  • Chris Christie 10% [15%] (16%)
  • Paul Ryan 9% [9%] (12%)
  • Marco Rubio 9% [8%] (8%)
  • Ted Cruz 9% [7%] (12%)
  • Scott Walker 4% [5%] (6%)
  • Bobby Jindal 4% [2%]
  • Rick Santorum 3% [5%] (3%)
  • John Kasich 2%

National survey of 358 registered Republicans was conducted July 20-22, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 5 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted April 13-15, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted December 14-16, 2013 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 11:11 am. Filed under 2016, Jeb Bush, Poll Watch, Rick Perry

July 28, 2014

Poll Watch: Quinnipiac Florida 2016 Presidential Survey

Quinnipiac Florida 2016 Presidential Poll

  • Hillary Clinton (D) 49% [49%] (49%) {47%} [50%] (51%)
  • Jeb Bush (R) 42% [41%] (43%) {45%} [43%] (40%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 51% [56%] (52%) {50%}
  • Paul Ryan (R) 38% [36%] (39%) {42%}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 53% [52%] (51%) {50%} [53%] (52%)
  • Marco Rubio (R) 39% [40%] (41%) {43%} [41%] (41%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 53% [55%] (53%) {51%}
  • Rand Paul (R) 37% [37%] (38%) {41%}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 54% [52%] (51%) {45%}
  • Chris Christie (R) 33% [34%] (35%) {41%}

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

  • Hillary Clinton 58% [58%] [57%] (62%) / 38% [37%] [38%] (33%) {+20%}
  • Jeb Bush 48% [53%] [54%] (50%) / 37% [35%] [33%] (35%) {+11%}
  • Marco Rubio 43% [43%] [44%] (41%) / 35% [36%] [33%] (34%) {+8%}
  • Rand Paul 32% [34%] / 28% [31%] {+4%}
  • Paul Ryan 33% [33%] / 30% [36%] {+3%}
  • Chris Christie 35% [37%] / 36% [35%] {-1%}

Survey of 1,251 registered voters was conducted July 17-21, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 2.8 percentage points. Party ID: 31% [31%] (30%) {32%} [34%] (35%) Democrat; 28% [25%] (27%) {29%} [28%] (27%) Republican; 32% [34%] (35%) {32%} [30%] (31%) Independent; 9% [11%] (7%) {7%} [8%] (7%) Other.  Results from the poll conducted April 23-28, 2014 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 22-27, 2014 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted November 12-17, 2013 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted June 11-16, 2013 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted March 13-18, 2013 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 11:45 am. Filed under 2016, Hillary Clinton, Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, Poll Watch

July 24, 2014

Poll Watch: PPP (D) Mississippi 2016 Presidential Survey

PPP (D) Mississippi 2016 Presidential Poll

  • Mike Huckabee (R) 49%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 42%
  • Jeb Bush (R) 47% (50%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 42% (42%)
  • Chris Christie (R) 45% (49%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 42% (40%)
  • Rand Paul (R) 45% (46%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 43% (44%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 44% (45%)
  • Ted Cruz (R) 44% (47%)

Among Men

  • Mike Huckabee (R) 54%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 33%
  • Jeb Bush (R) 53% (58%) 
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 33% (34%)
  • Chris Christie (R) 51% (58%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 33% (32%)
  • Rand Paul (R) 55% (55%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 35% (37%)
  • Ted Cruz (R) 52% (55%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 38% (38%)

Among Women

  • Hillary Clinton (D) 48%
  • Mike Huckabee (R) 44%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 49% (49%)
  • Jeb Bush (R) 42% (43%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 50% (47%)
  • Chris Christie (R) 39% (42%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 50% (50%)
  • Rand Paul (R) 37% (38%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 50% (50%)
  • Ted Cruz (R) 38% (40%)

Among Whites

  • Mike Huckabee (R) 71%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 19%
  • Jeb Bush (R) 67% (75%) 
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 20% (19%)
  • Chris Christie (R) 63% (72%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 21% (17%)
  • Rand Paul (R) 66% (68%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 22% (19%)
  • Ted Cruz (R) 64% (69%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 24% (20%)

Among Blacks

  • Hillary Clinton (D) 81%
  • Mike Huckabee (R) 10%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 80% (87%)
  • Jeb Bush (R) 12% (4%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 79% (84%)
  • Chris Christie (R) 13% (9%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 81% (92%)
  • Rand Paul (R) 10% (4%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 82% (91%)
  • Ted Cruz (R) 9% (6%)

Survey of 691 Mississippi voters was conducted July 10-13, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 3.7 percentage points. Party ID: 43% (43%) Republican; 39% (37%) Democrat; 19% (20%) Independent/Other. Political ideology: 26% (23%) Moderate; 26% (27%) Very conservative; 25% (24%) Somewhat conservative; 14% (15%)Somewhat liberal; 10% (11%) Very liberal. Race: 60% (62%) White; 34% (32%) Black; 6% (6%) Other. Results from the poll conducted November 15-17, 2013 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 10:20 am. Filed under 2016, Chris Christie, Hillary Clinton, Jeb Bush, Mike Huckabee, Poll Watch, Ted Cruz

July 21, 2014

Poll Watch: NBC News/Marist Iowa 2016 Republican Caucus Survey

NBC News/Marist Iowa 2016 GOP Caucus Poll 

  • Jeb Bush 12%
  • Rand Paul 12%
  • Paul Ryan 11%
  • Rick Santorum 9%
  • Chris Christie 8%
  • Rick Perry 7%
  • Ted Cruz 7%
  • Marco Rubio 7%
  • Scott Walker 5%
  • Bobby Jindal 1%
  • Undecided 20%

Survey of 558 registered Republican voters was conducted July 7-13, 2014.  The margin of error is +/- 4.1 percentage points.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 10:45 am. Filed under 2016, Iowa Caucuses, Jeb Bush, Poll Watch, Rand Paul

July 9, 2014

Poll Watch: PPP (D) Louisiana 2016 Presidential Survey

PPP (D) Louisiana 2016 Presidential Poll 

  • Jeb Bush (R) 46% {50%} [44%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 45% {43%} [44%]
  • Mike Huckabee (R) 46% {49%}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 45% {44%}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 46% {43%} [44%]  
  • Rand Paul (R) 46% {47%} [45%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 46%
  • Ted Cruz (R) 45%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 46% {43%} [42%]
  • Chris Christie (R) 42% {44%} [41%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 48% {45%} [47%] (48%)
  • Bobby Jindal (R) 44% {47%} [40%] (45%)

Among Men

  • Jeb Bush (R) 47% {52%} [49%] 
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 42% {39%} [37%]
  • Mike Huckabee (R) 53% {54%} 
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 39% {40%}
  • Rand Paul (R) 52% {51%} [51%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 41% {39%} [37%]
  • Ted Cruz (R) 53%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 41%
  • Chris Christie (R) 48% {51%} [44%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 40% {36%} [35%]
  • Bobby Jindal (R) 49% {50%} [44%] (54%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 42% {43%} [42%] (40%)

Among Women 

  • Hillary Clinton (D) 48% {45%} [52%]
  • Jeb Bush (R) 45% {48%} [39%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 50% {46%}
  • Mike Huckabee (R) 40% {45%}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 50% {46%} [51%]
  • Rand Paul (R) 40% {44%} [39%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 50% 
  • Ted Cruz (R) 39%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 51% {48%} [49%]
  • Chris Christie (R) 37% {39%} [37%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 53% {47%} [53%] (56%)
  • Bobby Jindal (R) 39% {44%} [36%] (36%)

Do you think Bobby Jindal should run for President in 2016, or not?

  • He should run 17% {25%} [17%] (24%)
  • He should not 72% {63%} [72%] (66%)
Survey of 664 registered voters was conducted June 26-29, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 3.8 percentage points. Party ID: 44% {42%} [45%] (43%) Democrat; 36% {38%} [36%] (39%) Republican; 20% {20%} [18%] (17%) Independent/Other.  Political ideology: 29% {32%} [27%] (28%) Moderate; 24% {25%} [31%] (22%) Somewhat conservative; 22% {21%} [22%] (26%) Very conservative; 17% {13%} [12%] (12%) Somewhat liberal; 7% {9%} [9%] (12%) Very liberal. Results from the poll conducted February 6-9, 2014 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 16-19, 2013 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 8-12, 2013 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 12:00 pm. Filed under 2016, Hillary Clinton, Jeb Bush, Mike Huckabee, Poll Watch

June 13, 2014

Poll Watch: PPP (D) Florida 2016 Republican Presidential Primary Survey

PPP (D) Florida 2016 GOP Presidential Primary Poll

  • Jeb Bush 30% (30%) {26%} [28%] (22%)
  • Marco Rubio 14% (29%) {31%} [22%] (24%)
  • Rand Paul 11% (11%) {5%} [3%] (4%)
  • Ted Cruz 9%
  • Chris Christie 8% (8%) {7%} [9%] (10%)
  • Mike Huckabee 7% (9%) {11%} [11%] (10%)
  • Scott Walker 7%
  • Paul Ryan 2% (4%) {5%} [8%] (10%)
  • Bobby Jindal 1% (2%) {5%}
  • Someone else/Not sure 10% (6%) {5%} [5%] (4%)

Among Men

  • Jeb Bush 32% (33%) {22%} [33%] (23%)
  • Rand Paul 11% (13%) {4%} [3%] (4%)
  • Scott Walker 10%
  • Ted Cruz 10%
  • Marco Rubio 10% (27%) {34%} [20%] (28%)
  • Chris Christie 9% (7%) {7%} [8%] (11%)
  • Mike Huckabee 5% (8%) {11%} [8%] (9%)
  • Paul Ryan 2% (4%) {7%} [8%] (11%)
  • Bobby Jindal 2% (3%) {4%}
  • Someone else/Not sure 9% (5%) {4%} [3%] (3%)

Among Women

  • Jeb Bush 27% (25%) {31%} [23%] (21%)
  • Marco Rubio 17% (31%) {27%} [23%] (20%)
  • Rand Paul 11% (10%) {6%} [3%] (5%)
  • Mike Huckabee 9% (10%) {12%} [13%] (11%)
  • Ted Cruz 8%
  • Chris Christie 7% (9%) {7%} [9%] (9%)
  • Scott Walker 4%
  • Paul Ryan 3% (5%) {3%} [8%] (9%)
  • Bobby Jindal 1% (1%) {6%}
  • Someone else/Not sure 11% (7%) {6%} [6%] (5%)
If you had to choose between just Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio as the Republican candidate for President in 2016, who would you pick? 

  • Marco Rubio 45% (49%)  
  • Jeb Bush 41% (36%)
  • Not sure 14% (15%)

Do you think Jeb Bush should run for President in 2016, or not?

  • Think he should 47%
  • Think he should not 38%

Do you think Marco Rubio should run for President in 2016, or not?

  • Think he should 42%
  • Think he should not 41%

Survey of 315 Republican primary voters was conducted June 6-9, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 5.5 percentage points. Political ideology: 41% (40%) {36%} [42%] (40%) Somewhat conservative; 28% (27%) {35%} [34%] (33%) Very conservative; 22% (24%) {19%} [19%] (20%) Moderate; 6% (6%) {9%} [3%] (5%) Somewhat liberal; 2% (2%) {2%} [2%] (3%) Very liberal.  Results from the poll conducted March 15-18, 2013 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted January 11-13, 2013 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 3-4, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 31 – September 2, 2012 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 11:33 am. Filed under 2016, Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, Poll Watch

June 12, 2014

Poll Watch: Vox Populi Polling (R) Iowa 2016 Republican Caucus Survey

Vox Populi Polling (R) Iowa 2016 GOP Caucus Poll 

  • Jeb Bush 18% (18%)
  • Mike Huckabee 15% (20%)
  • Paul Ryan 13% (19%)
  • Rand Paul 12% (8%)
  • Marco Rubio 11% (9%)
  • Rick Santorum 10%
  • Ted Cruz 9% (9%)
  • Chris Christie 6% (7%)
  • Scott Walker 6% (6%)

Survey of 222 registered Republican voters was conducted June 4-5, 2014.  The margin of error is +/- 6.6 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted April 22-24, 2014 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 10:15 am. Filed under 2016, Jeb Bush, Poll Watch

May 15, 2014

Poll Watch: PPP (D) Alaska 2016 Presidential Survey

  • Jeb Bush (R) 47% {47%} [49%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 41% {39%} [42%]
  • Rand Paul (R) 46% {47%} [49%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 40% {41%} [43%]
  • Chris Christie (R) 44% {43%} [46%] (43%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 41% {39%} [38%] (42%)
  • Mike Huckabee (R) 43% {45%}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 42% {41%}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 44% {44%} [49%] (53%)
  • Sarah Palin (R) 41% {43%} [40%] (37%)

Among Men

  • Jeb Bush (R) 58% {54%} [59%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 32% {33%} [31%]
  • Rand Paul (R) 55% {55%} [58%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 34% {35%} [34%]
  • Chris Christie (R) 51% {49%} [51%] (50%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 33% {34%} [31%] (35%)
  • Mike Huckabee (R) 51% {51%}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 36% {35%}
  • Sarah Palin (R) 50% {49%} [48%] (43%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 34% {37%} [39%] (46%)

Among Women 

  • Hillary Clinton (D) 48% {45%} [52%]
  • Jeb Bush (R) 37% {40%} [40%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 46% {46%} [50%]
  • Rand Paul (R) 39% {41%} [42%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 48% {44%} [45%] (47%)
  • Chris Christie (R) 37% {38%} [43%] (38%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 47% {47%}
  • Mike Huckabee (R) 37% {40%}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 54% {50%} [58%] (60%)
  • Sarah Palin (R) 32% {38%} [34%] (31%)

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Sarah Palin?

  • Favorable 36% {39%} [39%] (34%)
  • Unfavorable 56% {55%} [58%] (59%)
Do you think Sarah Palin should run for President in 2016, or not?

  • She should run 19% {23%} [18%] (16%)
  • She should not 74% {69%} [77%] (78%)

Survey of 582 registered voters was conducted May 8-11, 2014.  The margin of error is +/- 4.1 percentage points.  Party ID: 29% {33%} [32%] (32%) Republican; 18% {20%} [20%] (21%) Democrat; 53% {46%} [48%] (46%) Independent/Other.  Ideology: 31% {32%} [30%] (33%) Moderate; 22% {21%} [20%] (19%) Very conservative; 21% {23%} [25%] (25%) Somewhat conservative; 16% {16%} [17%] (15%) Somewhat liberal; 9% {7%} [8%] (9%) Very liberal. Results from the poll conducted January 30 – February 1, 2014 are in curly brackets.Results from the poll conducted July 25-28, 2013 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 4-5, 2013 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 2:00 pm. Filed under 2016, Chris Christie, Hillary Clinton, Jeb Bush, Mike Huckabee, Poll Watch, Rand Paul, Sarah Palin

Poll Watch: PPP (D) North Carolina 2016 Republican Primary Survey

PPP (D) North Carolina 2016 GOP Primary Poll

  • Mike Huckabee 17% [19%] (22%) {19%} [20%] (15%)
  • Jeb Bush 17% [15%] (18%) {12%} [15%] (14%) {15%} [16%] (9%)
  • Chris Christie 12% [9%] (12%) {15%} [11%] (17%) {19%} [20%](10%)
  • Ted Cruz 12% [17%] (12%) {14%} [8%] (11%) {12%} [12%]
  • Rand Paul 12% [15%] (9%) {12%} [14%] (14%) {13%} [12%] (6%)
  • Paul Ryan 8% [6%] (9%) {4%} [8%] (11%) {7%} [7%] (12%)
  • Scott Walker 5% (7%) {6%} [4%] (3%) {5%} [1%]
  • Marco Rubio 5% [5%] (5%) {5%} [7%] (9%) {10%} [10%] (21%)
  • Bobby Jindal 2% [4%] (2%) {1%} [3%] (5%) {3%} [6%]
  • Someone else/Not sure 11% [9%] (6%) {12%} [9%] (13%) {11%} [13%] (8%)

Among Men

  • Mike Huckabee 18% [13%] (19%) {15%} [15%] (14%)
  • Chris Christie 14% [9%] (12%) {16%} [14%] (18%) {18%} [19%] (10%)
  • Rand Paul 14% [18%] (8%) {13%} [19%] (14%) {15%} [16%] (9%)
  • Ted Cruz 12% [19%] (16%) {16%} [7%] (14%) {15%} [16%]
  • Jeb Bush 12% [15%] {13%} [18%] (14%) {14%} [14%] (11%)
  • Paul Ryan 7% [7%] (8%) {3%} [5%] (10%) {5%} [6%] (12%)
  • Scott Walker 7% (10%) {7%} [6%] (4%) {6%} [1%]
  • Marco Rubio 4% [6%] (6%) {3%} [7%] (7%) {10%} [9%] (22%)
  • Bobby Jindal 1% [4%] (1%) {2%} [3%] (6%) {3%} [5%]
  • Someone else/Not sure 11% [7%] (4%) {12%} [6%] (9%) {7%} [10%] (7%)

Among Women

  • Jeb Bush 23% [15%] (21%) {11%} [13%] (13%) {16%} [18%] (8%)
  • Mike Huckabee 16% [26%] (24%) {24%} [25%] (16%)
  • Ted Cruz 11% [13%] (7%) {11%} [9%] (9%) {10%} [9%]
  • Chris Christie 10% [9%] (12%) {13%} [7%] (17%) {19%} [20%](10%)
  • Paul Ryan 9% [4%] (9%) {5%} [12%] (11%) {8%} [9%] (12%)
  • Rand Paul 9% [11%] (11%) {10%} [9%] (14%) {11%} [8%] (4%)
  • Marco Rubio 5% [4%] (5%) {7%} [7%] (11%) {10%} [10%] (19%)
  • Scott Walker 4% (3%) {5%} [2%] (1%) {4%} [0%]
  • Bobby Jindal 3% [4%] (2%) {1%} [3%] (4%) {3%} [7%]
  • Someone else/Not sure 10% [10%] (7%) {14%} [13%] (17%) {15%} [17%] (10%)

Survey of 394 Republican primary voters was conducted May 9-11, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 4.9 percentage points. Political ideology: 40% [45%] (39%) {37%} [35%] (38%) {37%} [36%] (44%) Very conservative; 37% [35%] (32%) {35%} [33%] (40%) {39%} [36%] (35%) Somewhat conservative; 20% [13%] (21%) {20%} [22%] (16%) {16%} [21%] (13%) Moderate; 2% [4%] (6%) {4%} [7%] (4%) {7%} [4%] (6%) Somewhat liberal; 1% [4%] (3%) {3%} [3%] (2%) {1%} [3%] (1%) Very liberal.  Results from the poll conducted April 26-28, 2014 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 3-6, 2014 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted March 6-9, 2014 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 6-9, 2014 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 9-12, 2014 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted December 5-8, 2013 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 8-11, 2013 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted December 6-9, 2012 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 10:00 am. Filed under 2016, Jeb Bush, Mike Huckabee, Poll Watch

May 6, 2014

Poll Watch: CNN/ORC 2016 Republican Nomination Survey

CNN/ORC 2016 GOP Nomination Poll 

  • Jeb Bush 13% (9%) {10%} [6%] (10%)
  • Rand Paul 13% (16%) {13%} [13%] (13%)
  • Paul Ryan 12% (15%) {9%} [11%] (16%)
  • Mike Huckabee 10% (10%) {14%}
  • Chris Christie 9% (8%) {10%} [24%] (17%)
  • Rick Perry 8% (11%) {8%} [7%] (6%)
  • Scott Walker 7%
  • Ted Cruz 7% (8%) {8%} [10%] (7%)
  • Marco Rubio 6% (5%) {9%} [9%] (9%)
  • Rick Santorum 2% (3%) {4%} [6%] (5%)
  • Someone else (vol.) 4% (6%) {8%} [6%] (6%)
  • None/No one (vol.) 4% (4%) {3%} [2%] (4%)
  • No opinion 7% (5%) {4%} [6%] (6%)

Among Republicans

  • Jeb Bush 15% (11%) {10%} [6%] (13%)
  • Paul Ryan 14% (19%) {9%} [11%] (17%)
  • Rand Paul 12% (10%) {13%} [12%] (9%)
  • Mike Huckabee 12% (9%) {17%}
  • Chris Christie 8% (6%) {8%} [28%] (17%)
  • Scott Walker 7%
  • Rick Perry 7% (11%) {8%} [8%] (7%)
  • Ted Cruz 6% (11%) {5%} [9%] (7%)
  • Marco Rubio 6% (5%) {12%} [10%] (10%)
  • Rick Santorum 2% (4%) {5%} [7%] (3%)
  • Someone else (vol.) 3% (8%) {5%} [6%] (7%)
  • None/No one (vol.) 2% (3%) {4%} [1%] (4%)
  • No opinion 8% (5%) {3%} [3%] (5%)

Among GOP-Leaning Independents

  • Rand Paul 15% (22%) {13%} [15%] (17%)
  • Chris Christie 10% (11%) {13%} [20%] (18%)
  • Jeb Bush 10% (7%) {10%} [6%] (6%)
  • Ted Cruz 9% (6%) {13%} [12%] (7%)
  • Rick Perry 8% (12%) {7%} [7%] (6%)
  • Paul Ryan 8% (11%) {10%} [12%]  (15%)
  • Mike Huckabee 7% (11%) {10%}
  • Marco Rubio 6% (5%) {5%} [7%] (9%)
  • Rick Santorum 2% (2%) {3%} [5%] (7%)
  • Someone else (vol.) 5% (3%) {12%} [6%] (4%)
  • None/No one (vol.) 6% (6%) {2%} [3%] (4%)
  • No opinion 7% (5%) {4%} [8%] (7%)

Among Men 

  • Rand Paul 17% (17%) {17%} [15%] (13%)
  • Jeb Bush 14% (7%) {9%} [2%] (9%)
  • Rick Perry 11% (10%) {7%} [8%] (7%)
  • Ted Cruz 9% (10%) {10%} [12%] (12%)
  • Chris Christie 8% (9%) {6%} [23%] (16%)
  • Scott Walker 8%
  • Mike Huckabee 8% (11%) {14%}
  • Paul Ryan 7% (15%) {12%} [10%] (14%)
  • Marco Rubio 4% (6%) {7%} [11%] (11%)
  • Rick Santorum 1% (2%) {2%} [6%] (6%)
  • Someone else (vol.) 3% (7%) {8%} [6%] (5%)
  • None/No one (vol.) 4% (2%) {4%} [2%] (3%)
  • No opinion 6% (3%) {4%} [4%] (5%)

Among Women

  • Paul Ryan 17% (13%) {6%} [13%] (19%)
  • Jeb Bush 12% (11%) {10%} [10%] (11%)
  • Mike Huckabee 12% (9%) {14%}
  • Rand Paul 10% (14%) {9%} [11%] (12%)
  • Chris Christie 9% (7%) {15%} [24%] (19%)
  • Marco Rubio 8% (5%) {11%} [7%] (7%)
  • Scott Walker 6%
  • Ted Cruz 5% (6%) {7%} [8%] (3%)
  • Rick Perry 4% (13%) {9%} [6%] (6%)
  • Rick Santorum 2% (4%) {7%} [6%] (4%)
  • Someone else (vol.) 4% (4%) {8%} [6%] (6%)
  • None/No one (vol.) 3% (7%) {3%} [2%] (6%)
  • No opinion 9% (6%) {3%} [7%] (7%)

Survey of 473 Republicans and GOP-leaning Independents was conducted May 2-4, 2014.  The margin of error is +/- 4.5 percentage points. Party ID: 61% (50%) {52%} Republican; 39% (50%) {48%} Independent.  Results from the poll conducted March 7-9, 2014 are in parentheses.   Results from the poll conducted January 31 – February 2, 2014 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 18-20, 2013 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 6-8, 2013 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 10:00 am. Filed under 2016, Jeb Bush, Poll Watch, Rand Paul

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