April 23, 2015

Poll Watch: PPP (D) New Hampshire 2016 Presidential Survey

PPP (D) New Hampshire 2016 Presidential Poll

  • Hillary Clinton (D) 49% {50%} [51%] (52%)
  • Rand Paul (R) 40% {37%} [41%] (41%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 49%
  • Scott Walker (R) 40%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 50% (52%)
  • Marco Rubio (R) 38% (38%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 51%
  • Rick Perry (R) 38%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 51%
  • Ben Carson (R) 38%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 51%
  • Mike Huckabee (R) 38%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 49% {49%} [49%]
  • Jeb Bush (R) 36% {38%} [40%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 51% {43%} [43%]
  • Chris Christie (R) 36% {39%} [39%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 52% {51%} [50%]
  • Ted Cruz (R) 37% {32%} [38%]
  • Joe Biden (D) 44%
  • Scott Walker (R) 40%
  • Elizabeth Warren (D) 45%
  • Scott Walker (R) 40%

Survey of 747 New Hampshire voters was conducted April 9-13, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 3.6 percentage points. Party ID: 30% {27%} [30%] (29%) Republican; 28% {28%} [31%] (32%) Democrat; 43% {44%} [39%] (39%) Independent/Other. Political ideology: 32% {34%} [33%] (31%) Moderate; 21% {18%} [19%] (18%) Somewhat liberal; 20% {25%} [21%] (23%) Somewhat conservative; 15% {10%} [12%] (13%) Very liberal; 12% {13%} [15%] (15%) Very conservative.Results from the poll conducted January 9-12, 2014 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 13-16, 2013 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 19-21, 2013 are in parentheses.

Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

Poll Watch: FDU PublicMind New Jersey 2016 Republican Primary Survey

FDU PublicMind New Jersey 2016 GOP Presidential Primary Poll

  • Chris Christie 20% (51%)
  • Scott Walker 14%
  • Jeb Bush 13% (6%)
  • Ted Cruz 8% 
  • Rand Paul 8% (10%)
  • Other (vol.) 15% (10%)
  • Don’t know (vol.) 22% (13%)

Survey of 268 registered Republican primary voters was conducted April 13-19, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 6.0 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted August 21-27, 2013 are in parentheses.

Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 7:00 am. Filed under 2016, Chris Christie, Jeb Bush, Rand Paul, Scott Walker, Ted Cruz

April 21, 2015

Poll Watch: Gravis Insights/Townhall (R) Iowa 2016 Republican Caucus Survey

Gravis Insights/Townhall (R) Iowa 2016 GOP Caucus Poll

  • Jeb Bush 16% [10%] (14%)
  • Scott Walker 13% [24%] (10%)
  • Marco Rubio 12% [7%] (4%)
  • Rand Paul 9% [10%] (8%)
  • Ben Carson 9% [5%]
  • Mike Huckabee 8% [7%] (9%)
  • Ted Cruz 6% [4%] (7%)
  • Chris Christie 5% [9%] (5%)
  • Carly Fiorina 3% [3%]
  • Rick Santorum 2% [6%]
  • Unsure 17% [15%] (18%)

Survey of 388 Iowa Republican voters was conducted April 13, 2015.The margin of error is +/- 5 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted February 12-13, 2015 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted January 5-7, 2015 are in parentheses.

Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 7:45 pm. Filed under 2016, Iowa Caucuses, Jeb Bush, Poll Watch, Republican Party

Poll Watch: CNN/ORC 2016 Republican Nomination Survey

CNN/ORC 2016 GOP Nomination Poll

  • Jeb Bush 17% [16%] (14%) {23%} [14%] (8%) {12%} [13%](9%) {10%} [6%] (10%)
  • Scott Walker 12% [13%] (11%) {4%} [5%] (5%) {5%} [7%]
  • Rand Paul 11% [12%] (10%) {6%} [8%] (12%) {14%} [13%](16%) {13%} [13%] (13%)
  • Marco Rubio 11% [7%] (5%) {5%} [3%] (6%) {8%} [6%] (5%) {9%} [9%] (9%)
  • Mike Huckabee 9% [10%] (16%) {6%} [10%] (12%) {11%} [10%] (10%) {14%}
  • Ted Cruz 7% [4%] (3%) {4%} [7%] (8%) {9%} [7%] (8%) {8%} [10%] (7%)
  • Ben Carson 4% [9%] (8%) {7%} [11%]
  • Chris Christie 4% [7%] (7%) {13%} [9%] (13%) {8%} [9%] (8%) {10%} [24%] (17%)
  • Rick Perry 3% [4%] (3%) {4%} [5%] (11%) {6%} [8%] (11%) {8%} [7%] (6%)
  • Rick Santorum 3% [1%] (3%) {2%} [2%] (3%) {4%} [2%] (3%) {4%} [6%] (5%)
  • Carly Fiorina 2% [0%] (1%)
  • Lindsey Graham 2% [1%] (1%)
  • Bobby Jindal 2% [1%] (1%) {4%} [1%]
  • John Kasich 2% [2%] (2%) {3%} [3%]
  • George Pataki 0%

Survey of 435 Republicans and GOP-leaning Independents was conducted April 16-19, 2015.  The margin of error is +/- 4.5 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted March 13-15, 2015 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted February 12-15, 2015 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted December 18-21, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted November 21-23, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted July 18-20, 2014 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted May 29 – June 1, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted May 2-4, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted March 7-9, 2014 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted January 31 – February 2, 2014 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 18-20, 2013 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 6-8, 2013 are in parentheses.

Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 4:00 am. Filed under 2016, Jeb Bush, Poll Watch, Republican Party

April 20, 2015

Poll Watch: Mason-Dixon Florida 2016 Presidential Survey

Mason-Dixon Florida 2016 Presidential Poll

  • Marco Rubio (R) 49%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 43%
  • Jeb Bush (R) 47%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 43%

Survey of 625 registered voters was conducted April 14-16, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points.

Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 4:29 pm. Filed under 2016, Hillary Clinton, Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, Poll Watch

April 17, 2015

Poll Watch: Mason-Dixon Florida 2016 Republican Primary Survey

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Rubiomentum? A new Mason-Dixon Polling and Research survey of 400 registered Republican Florida voters shows Sen. Marco Rubio with a narrow 31-30 lead over former Gov. Jeb Bush in their home state. Rubio’s well-received campaign roll out and subsequent media appearances have boosted the junior senator into a dead-heat with his political mentor and friend. Rubio famously toppled another moderate Republican governor, Charlie Crist, after initially trailing in the polls on his way to the GOP senate nomination in 2010.

Mason-Dixon Florida 2016 GOP Primary Poll

  • Marco Rubio 31%
  • Jeb Bush 30%
  • Ted Cruz 8%
  • Rand Paul 7%
  • Scott Walker 2%
  • Other 5%
  • Undecided 17%

Survey of 400 registered Republican voters was conducted April 14-16, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 5 percentage points.

Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 8:49 am. Filed under 2016, Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, Poll Analysis, Poll Watch

April 12, 2015

Poll Watch: PPP (D) North Carolina 2016 Republican Primary Survey

PPP (D) North Carolina 2016 GOP Primary Poll

  • Jeb Bush 19% {17%} [14%] (15%) {17%} [15%] (18%) {12%} [15%] (14%) {15%} [16%] (9%)
  • Scott Walker 16% {24%} [14%] {5%} (7%) {6%} [4%] (3%) {5%} [1%]
  • Ted Cruz 11% {3%} [6%] (5%) {12%} [17%] (12%) {14%} [8%] (11%) {12%} [12%]
  • Mike Huckabee 11% {15%} [13%] (14%) {17%} [19%] (22%) {19%} [20%] (15%)
  • Marco Rubio 11% {7%} (4%) {5%} [5%] (5%) {5%} [7%] (9%) {10%} [10%] (21%)
  • Ben Carson 9% {12%} [14%] (19%)
  • Chris Christie 7% {5%} [5%] (14%) {12%} [9%] (12%) {15%} [11%] (17%) {19%} [20%] (10%)
  • Rand Paul 6% {5%} [6%] (5%) {12%} [15%] (9%) {12%} [14%] (14%) {13%} [12%] (6%)
  • Rick Perry 2% {3%} [3%] (7%)
  • Not sure 7% {8%} [9%] (7%) {11%} [9%] (6%) {12%} [9%] (13%) {11%} [13%] (8%)

Survey of 351 Republican primary voters was conducted April 2-5, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 5.2 percentage points. Political ideology: 39% {36%} [39%] (38%) {37%} [35%] (32%) {35%} [33%] (40%) {39%} [36%] (35%) Somewhat conservative; 37% {38%} [35%] (39%) {40%} [45%] (39%) {37%} [35%] (38%) {37%} [36%] (44%) Very conservative; 18% {19%} [20%] (18%) {20%} [13%] (21%) {20%} [22%] (16%) {16%} [21%] (13%) Moderate; 5% {4%} [4%] (5%) {2%} [4%] (6%) {4%} [7%] (4%) {7%} [4%] (6%) Somewhat liberal; 1% {3%} [2%] (1%) {1%} [4%] (3%) {3%} [3%] (2%) {1%} [3%] (1%) Very liberal. Results from the poll conducted February 24-26, 2015 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted January 29-31, 2015 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted December 4-7, 2014 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted May 9-11, 2014 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 26-28, 2014 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 3-6, 2014 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted March 6-9, 2014 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 6-9, 2014 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 9-12, 2014 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted December 5-8, 2013 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 8-11, 2013 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted December 6-9, 2012are in parentheses.

Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 4:13 am. Filed under 2016, Jeb Bush, Poll Watch, Republican Party

April 10, 2015

Poll Watch: Monmouth University 2016 Republican Nomination Survey

Monmouth University 2016 GOP Nomination Poll

  • Jeb Bush 13%
  • Scott Walker 11%
  • Ted Cruz 11%
  • Mike Huckabee 9%
  • Ben Carson 7%
  • Donald Trump 7%
  • Rand Paul 6%
  • Chris Christie 5%
  • Rick Perry 5%
  • Marco Rubio 5%
  • Carly Fiorina 1%
  • Lindsey Graham 1%
  • Bobby Jindal 1%
  • John Kasich 1%
  • Rick Santorum 1%
  • John Bolton 0%
  • George Pataki 0%
  • Other (vol.) 1%
  • No one (vol.) 2%
  • Undecided (vol.) 14%

National survey of 355 registered voters who identify themselves as Republicans or lean toward the Republican Party was conducted March 30 – April 2, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 5.2 percentage points. 

Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 8:00 am. Filed under 2016, Jeb Bush, Poll Watch

April 9, 2015

Poll Watch: Quinnipiac Florida 2016 Republican Primary Survey

Quinnipiac Florida 2016 GOP Primary Poll

  • Jeb Bush 24% [32%] (21%) {27%} [25%] (22%)
  • Scott Walker 15% [9%] (2%) {4%} [5%] (2%)
  • Marco Rubio 12% [15%] (18%) {11%} [16%] (18%)
  • Ben Carson 8% [8%]
  • Ted Cruz 7% [4%] (10%) {6%} [9%] (12%)
  • Mike Huckabee 6% [11%] (7%) {6%}
  • Rand Paul 4% [3%] (8%) {14%} [11%] (9%)
  • Rick Perry 2% [1%] (5%)
  • Chris Christie 1% [3%] (6%) {7%} [9%] (14%)
  • John Kasich 1% [0%] (1%)
  • Lindsey Graham 0%
  • Bobby Jindal 0% [3%] (1%) {1%} [3%] (3%)
  • Rick Santorum 0% [3%] (1%)

Survey of 428 registered Republicans was conducted March 17-28, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 4.7 percentage points. Click here to view crosstabs. Results from the poll conducted January 22 – February 1, 2015 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted July 17-21, 2014 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted April 23-28, 2014 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 22-27, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted November 12-17, 2013 are in parentheses.

Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 8:00 am. Filed under 2016, Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, Poll Watch, Republican Party

April 4, 2015

Poll Watch: ABC News/Washington Post 2016 Republican Nomination Survey

ABC News/Washington Post 2016 GOP Nomination Poll

  • Jeb Bush 21% (14%) {13%} [12%] (18%)
  • Scott Walker 13% (7%) {2%} [5%]
  • Ted Cruz 12% (8%) {4%} [7%] (12%)
  • Mike Huckabee 8% (7%) {12%} [14%]
  • Rand Paul 8% (10%) {12%} [15%] (11%)
  • Marco Rubio 8% (7%) {8%} [6%] (10%)
  • Chris Christie 7% (7%) {8%} [9%] (14%)
  • Ben Carson 6% (8%) {7%}
  • Rick Santorum 2% (3%) {4%}
  • Carly Fiorina 1%
  • Lindsey Graham 1%
  • Bobby Jindal 1% (3%) {2%} [2%]
  • John Kasich 1% (2%) {2%} [1%]
  • Rick Perry 1% (5%) {6%} [5%]

Survey of registered Republican and GOP-leaning voters was conducted March 26-29, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 6 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted December 11-14, 2014 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted October 9-12, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted April 24-27, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted January 20-23, 2014 are in parentheses.

Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 8:00 am. Filed under 2016, Jeb Bush, Poll Watch, Republican Party

April 3, 2015

Poll Watch: Fox News 2016 Presidential Survey

  • Hillary Clinton (D) 45% [48%] (49%) {52%} [51%] (51%)
  • Jeb Bush (R) 45% [43%] (42%) {39%} [42%] (38%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 47% [47%] (51%) {52%} [51%]
  • Rand Paul (R) 45% [44%] (40%) {41%} [42%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 47%
  • Marco Rubio (R) 43%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 48% (52%)
  • Ted Cruz (R) 42% (36%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 48%
  • Scott Walker (R) 42%

National survey of 1,025 registered voters was conducted March 29-31, 2015 under the joint direction of Anderson Robbins Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R). The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted January 25-27, 2015 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted December 7-9, 2014 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted July 20-22, 2014 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 13-15, 2014 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 2-4, 2014 are in parentheses.

Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 10:00 am. Filed under 2016, Hillary Clinton, Jeb Bush, Poll Watch, Republican Party

April 1, 2015

Poll Watch: Boston Herald/Franklin Pierce University New Hampshire 2016 Republican Primary Survey

Boston Herald/Franklin Pierce University New Hampshire 2016 GOP Primary Poll

  • Jeb Bush 15%
  • Scott Walker 15%
  • Rand Paul 13%
  • Chris Christie 10%
  • Ted Cruz 9%
  • Mike Huckabee 7%
  • Ben Carson 4%
  • Marco Rubio 4%
  • Rick Perry 2%
  • Rick Santorum 2%
  • John Bolton 1%
  • Bobby Jindal 1%
  • John Kasich 1%
  • Carly Fiorina 0%
  • Lindsey Graham 0%
  • George Pataki 0%
  • Other 5%
  • Unsure 10%

Survey of 429 likely Republican primary voters was conducted March 22-25, 2015.  The margin of error is +/- 4.7 percentage points.

Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 8:00 am. Filed under 2016, Jeb Bush, New Hampshire Primary, Poll Watch, Republican Party, Scott Walker

March 31, 2015

Poll Watch: Quinnipiac Florida 2016 Presidential Survey

Quinnipiac Florida 2016 Presidential Poll

  • Jeb Bush (R) 45% (43%) {42%} [41%] (43%) {45%} [43%] (40%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 42% (44%) {49%} [49%] (49%) {47%} [50%] (51%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 46% (49%) {53%} [52%] (51%) {50%} [53%] (52%)
  • Marco Rubio (R) 44% (39%) {39%} [40%] (41%) {43%} [41%] (41%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 46% (50%) {53%} [55%] (53%) {51%}
  • Rand Paul (R) 43% (38%) {37%} [37%] (38%) {41%}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 44% (51%) {54%} [52%] (51%) {45%}
  • Chris Christie (R) 39% (33%) {33%} [34%] (35%) {41%}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 46%
  • Scott Walker (R) 40%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 48% (51%) [53%]
  • Mike Huckabee (R) 40% (34%) [35%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 48% (57%) (54%) {52%}
  • Ted Cruz (R) 39% (31%) (34%) {36%}

Survey of 1,087 Florida voters was conducted March 17-28, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points. Party ID: 32% (33%) {31%} [31%] (30%) {32%} [34%] (35%) Democrat; 29% (28%) {28%} [25%] (27%) {29%} [28%] (27%) Republican; 30% (30%) {32%} [34%] (35%) {32%} [30%] (31%) Independent; 9% (8%) {9%} [11%] (7%) {7%} [8%] (7%) Other. Click here to view crosstabs. Results from the poll conducted January 22 – February 1, 2015 are in parentheses.Results from the poll conducted July 17-21, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted April 23-28, 2014 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 22-27, 2014 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted November 12-17, 2013 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted June 11-16, 2013 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted March 13-18, 2013 are in parentheses.

Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 11:07 am. Filed under 2016, Hillary Clinton, Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, Poll Watch, Republican Party

Poll Watch: Emerson College Massachusetts 2016 Republican Primary Survey

Emerson College Massachusetts 2016 GOP Primary Poll

  • Jeb Bush 18.7%
  • Scott Walker 18.5%
  • Ben Carson 12.5%
  • Rand Paul 7.3%
  • Chris Christie 5.9%
  • Ted Cruz 5.6%
  • Mike Huckabee 3.3%

Survey of 216 Republican primary voters was conducted March 14-19, 2015.

Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 4:00 am. Filed under 2016, Jeb Bush, Republican Party, Scott Walker

March 30, 2015

Poll Watch: Quinnipiac New York 2016 Republican Primary Survey

Quinnipiac New York 2016 GOP Primary Poll

  • Jeb Bush 13%
  • Scott Walker 13%
  • Chris Christie 12%
  • Marco Rubio 10%
  • Rand Paul 8%
  • George Pataki 6%
  • Ben Carson 6%  
  • Ted Cruz 3%
  • Mike Huckabee 3%
  • Bobby Jindal 1%
  • Rick Perry 1%
  • John Kasich 1%
  • Rick Santorum 1%
  • Lindsey Graham 0%

Survey of 327 registered Republicans was conducted March 11-16, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 5.4 percentage points.

Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 4:00 am. Filed under 2016, Jeb Bush, Poll Watch, Republican Party, Scott Walker

March 27, 2015

Poll Watch: PPP (D) Florida 2016 Republican Presidential Primary Survey

PPP (D) Florida 2016 GOP Presidential Primary Poll

  • Jeb Bush 25% [30%] (30%) {26%} [28%] (22%)
  • Scott Walker 17% [7%]
  • Marco Rubio 15% [14%] (29%) {31%} [22%] (24%)
  • Ben Carson 12%
  • Mike Huckabee 7% [7%] (9%) {11%} [11%] (10%)
  • Ted Cruz 6% [9%]
  • Chris Christie 4% [8%] (8%) {7%} [9%] (10%)
  • Rand Paul 4% [11%] (11%) {5%} [3%] (4%)
  • Rick Perry 3% (1%) {2%}
  • Not sure 6% [10%] (6%) {5%} [5%] (4%)
Survey of 425 Republican primary voters was conducted March 19-22, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 4.8 percentage points. Political ideology: 39% [41%] (40%) {36%} [42%] (40%) Somewhat conservative; 34% [28%] (27%) {35%} [34%] (33%) Very conservative; 20% [22%] (24%) {19%} [19%] (20%) Moderate; 5% [6%] (6%) {9%} [3%] (5%) Somewhat liberal; 2% [2%] (2%) {2%} [2%] (3%) Very liberal.  Results from the poll conducted June 6-9, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted March 15-18, 2013 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted January 11-13, 2013 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 3-4, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 31 – September 2, 2012 are in parentheses.

Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 4:00 am. Filed under 2016, Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, Poll Watch, Republican Party

March 26, 2015

Poll Watch: PPP (D) Florida 2016 Presidential Survey

  • Hillary Clinton (D) 48% (49%) {48%} [56%] (50%)
  • Marco Rubio (R) 46% (42%) {44%} [40%] (46%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 47% (46%) {46%} [53%] (49%)
  • Jeb Bush (R) 44% (44%) {45%} [40%] (44%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 46% (48%) {48%}
  • Rand Paul (R) 42% (40%) {42%}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 49% (49%) {48%}
  • Mike Huckabee (R) 44% (40%) {41%}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 48% (46%) {46%}
  • Chris Christie (R) 41% (38%) {38%}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 49% (51%) {50%}
  • Ted Cruz (R) 42% (36%) {39%}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 50%
  • Rick Perry (R) 42%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 49%
  • Ben Carson (R) 41%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 49%
  • Scott Walker (R) 41%
  • Joe Biden (D) 43%
  • Scott Walker (R) 43%
  • Elizabeth Warren (D) 42%
  • Scott Walker (R) 41%

Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Marco Rubio’s job performance?

  • Approve 45% (44%) {45%} [44%] (49%)
  • Disapprove 40% (41%) {40%} [43%] (36%)

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Jeb Bush?

  • Favorable 45% (50%) {51%} [50%] (51%)
  • Unfavorable 42% (35%) {35%} [37%] (35%)

Do you think Jeb Bush should run for President in 2016, or not?

  • He should 37% (31%) {35%} [33%] (32%)
  • He should not 52% (53%) {50%} [51%] (53%)

Do you think Marco Rubio should run for President in 2016, or not?

  • He should 35% (32%) {27%} [37%] (38%)
  • He should not 51% (53%) {59%} [53%] (49%)

Survey of 923 likely voters was conducted March 19-22, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 3.2 percentage points. Party ID: 41% (40%) {38%} [42%] (44%) Democrat; 41% (38%) {37%} [37%] (38%) Republican; 19% (22%) {25%} [22%] (18%) Independent/Other.  Political ideology: 32% (31%) {28%} [32%] (33%) Moderate; 24% (23%) {25%} [21%] (21%) Somewhat conservative; 17% (13%) {15%}[17%] (18%) Very conservative; 16% (19%) {22%} [17%] (17%)Somewhat liberal; 11% (13%) {11%} [13%] (12%) Very liberal. Results from the poll conducted September 4-7, 2014 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted June 6-9, 2014 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 15-18, 2013 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 11-13, 2013 are in parentheses.

Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

March 25, 2015

POWER RANKINGS: March

1.  Scott Walker  Governor of Wisconsin

The governor of Wisconsin has become the surprising early frontrunner, using his battle-tested record in the Badger State to bolster his standing in Iowa and New Hampshire. The early polling shows Walker has the most appeal among the GOP’s widening factions. Still, he has stumbled over several easy questions and with early staffing problems, leading some to wonder if he can handle the grind of a national campaign.

2.  Jeb Bush  former Governor of Florida

Gov. Bush continues to consolidate the party establishment and lock up major bundlers and donors, but so far that insider strength is not reflected in the polls. Bush lags in the early states for someone with such a famous name and his numbers among conservatives are dreadful. Still, Bush’s massive financial edge could more than make up the difference.

3.  Marco Rubio  U.S. Senator from Florida

Sen. Rubio is methodically building his 2016 effort, focusing on ideas and policies rather than splashy headlines. His efforts are winning plaudits in the early states, and earning him some of the best early poll numbers on favorability and likability. Sen. Rubio has also worked hard to build a relationship with 2012 nominee Mitt Romney. The senator has locked up a number of top Romney staffers, with more likely to join up soon.

4.  Ted Cruz  U.S. Senator from Texas

The Tea Party favorite was the first candidate officially out of the gate, launching his campaign from Liberty University, a direct play to win over the evangelical base. Despite his doubters in the mainstream press, the Princeton and Harvard-educated lawyer is in a strong position to unite the Tea Party and evangelical factions of the GOP.

5.  Rand Paul  U.S. Senator from Kentucky

The libertarian-leaning senator remains a top contender due to his his strong grassroots organization in Iowa and New Hampshire. Paul has successfully capitalized on his father’s prior campaigns to gain a foothold in the early states. However, with the growing crisis in the Middle East and the pending nuclear deal with Iran, Paul will find himself at odds with a more hawkish GOP.

6.  Mike Huckabee  former Governor of Arkansas

The author and former Fox News host retains positive favorable numbers and a deep connection to the party’s evangelical Christian wing while struggling with the donor class. Despite strong name recognition, Huckabee hasn’t been able to build a viable fundraising network outside of the evangelical grassroots. He seems to be far from the candidate he was in 2008, with a number of odd gaffes kicking off his 2016 consideration.

7.  Bobby Jindal  Governor of Louisiana

Gov. Jindal has worked hard to win over the evangelical and activist base of the party without burning bridges to the establishment. His efforts haven’t shown up in the polls as of yet, but they could help him stick around as a top second choice for a number of the GOP’s disparate factions.

8.  Chris Christie  Governor of New Jersey

Christie’s numbers at home continue to drop, and many are now wondering if the governor will pass on the 2016 race entirely. His team, however, believes Christie is still the best candidate on the stump, and will engineer a comeback to the top tier in the town halls of New Hampshire.

9.  John Kasich  Governor of Ohio

With upcoming visits to early primary states, Kasich has started to generate real buzz that he’s interested in the 2016 race. With a record of success in the nation’s most important swing state, the Ohio governor could be a dark horse establishment prospect if Jeb Bush stumbles.

10.  Ben Carson  retired neurosurgeon from Maryland

The conservative firebrand continues to build towards a campaign, despite a series of gaffes that highlight his controversial stances on social issues and his lack of experience. Dr. Carson will have to improve dramatically to capitalize on the real buzz, and money, his prospects have generated.

Honorable Mention:  Rick Perry, Carly Fiorina, Mike Pence

No Chance: Lindsey Graham, Rick Santorum, Donald Trump

 

 

March 24, 2015

Time For Propagandismo

I don’t want to disillusion any readers, but most of what they read and hear in politics is deliberate, strategic and ongoing propaganda. That’s not all bad. This propaganda is, after all, the language of politics, and the secret is not only speaking the language, but knowing how to translate it.

We now enter the “announcement” season of the presidential campaign cycle. The “propagandismo” nature of our political language is in one of its purest forms in this season. Debates between candidates, and the conflict between their differing “propaganda” messages, have not yet taken place Media and commentary analysis challenging the propaganda is mostly ahead. Political consultants and other advisers have carefully crafted, after much discussion and editing, the persona, biographical “story,” and overall image of their candidates. The political horses are lining up to get into the starting gates. By the late autumn and early winter, we’re off to the race!

Not so long ago, announcing for president was a more simple and straightforward event. Radio, TV and the internet, as they came along, provide expanded platforms for the formal declaration of candidacy, but “in the old days” when a candidate decided to get “in”, he or she simply got “in.” Today, there are usually a series of orchestrated steps to the actual announcement. First, there is an often extended period of”speculation” during which a potential candidate gives interviews, answers media questions, and makes public speeches in which an “interest” in running for president is made of “hints,” “maybes,” and “possibles.” Then there is an announcement of the formation of an “exploratory committee” which propels a candidate into fundraising and more specific testing of the political waters. (This step arose primarily to fit the campaign funding laws introduced several years ago.) Finally, there is the formal announcement itself. Sometimes, a candidate only goes through step 1, or steps 1 and 2. We are now, in most cases, ready for those who will take step 3.

For the 2016 cycle, each major political party will have its own schedule of announcements. Senator Ted Cruz has just become the first to formally announce on the Republican (he skipped step 2, that is, he did not form an exploratory committee). He will be followed soon enough by a number of others, including predetermined “major” candidates Jeb Bush, Chris Christie and Scott Walker. Most of those who will go to step 3 have already formed exploratory committees. There is likely to be one or two surprise or late entries (like Texas Governor Rick Perry in 2012). On the Democratic side, the party and its potential candidates are awaiting the formal announcement of Hillary Clinton, reportedly set for April. Should she decide not to run, the number of formal candidates would likely increase dramatically. If she does announce, there will still be rivals in the race, most notably now former Maryland Governor Martin O’Malley, and possibly, Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren. Since a Democratic field without Clinton would be considered a relatively light one, the chance for surprise candidacies is high.

But no matter who, how many, and in which major party, the basic form of the announcement for president will most likely be similar. As I suggested at the outset, these announcements will inevitably attempt to control the narrative of the candidacy, and will be laden with propaganda.

The fresher and more original campaign launches, however, will gain at least some initial advantages. It will be instructive to observe which campaigns have figured this out.

______________________________________________________________________

-Copyright (c) 2015 by Barry Casselman. All rights reserved.

March 19, 2015

The Looming Sunshine State Showdown

Making predictions in politics is a fool’s game. Making predictions in politics at this point in the race, this far removed from any actual voting, is like throwing darts while drunk and blindfolded at a dartboard in another bar. Given that, I’d like to go on the record and fling my dart: before any candidates have even formally announced their candidacy, I predict the 2016 Republican nomination will come down to Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio.

Depending on how you view the current state of the race, this could either be a boring or outlandish prediction. On one hand, Senator Rubio is mired in single digits in every poll, barely registered in the CPAC straw poll last month, and is not expected to be able to out-raise or out-organize Governor Bush. Nothing points to Rubio going anywhere in this crowded field-to-be. In fact, 2-4 times the number of voters are supporting the current hot candidate, Governor Walker, at the moment. The money seems to be on a Walker-Bush race once it actually gets under way.

But on the other hand… nobody should care about actual poll numbers at this early stage of the game. Right now, it’s all about potential, upside, ceiling… and all about impressing the right people (read: party insiders who have more influence over the nomination process than any voter would like to admit). And in those areas, Marco Rubio is absolutely shining while the sheen is already beginning to come off Governor Walker’s and Governor Bush’s campaigns.

Governor Jeb Bush
Bush’s campaign has seen a string of negative press recently, starting with the complete disaster of his major foreign policy speech last month. He mispronounced names, gave incorrect facts, and gave vague, non-descript answers to questions for which he should have been more than prepared. In a speech your campaign dubs as your first major policy speech on a national stage, people describing the end result as “uncertain,” “rushed,” “nervous,” “clunky,” and “vague” simply isn’t good.

Luckily for Governor Bush, nobody was paying attention to that speech so it didn’t hurt him in the polls. But again, actual poll numbers are secondary at this stage in the game. The more important question is this: what does this bumbling speech tell us about Jeb Bush moving forward? This was not an uncontrolled event or a last minute interview. This was a planned, scripted speech which the campaign put together to display Bush’s gravitas and seriousness as a candidate. Instead, what we got was something that looked much more akin to Jeb’s older brother.

Those family ties may end up being the biggest thing weighing down a Bush candidacy at this point, actually. Every speech or interview Governor Bush has done over the past month has included a line to the tune of, “I am my own man,” or “I am not my brother.” It’s a weak attempt to distance himself from the negatives of George W. Bush’s time as President, but what it really does is tell us which of Jeb’s negatives poll the worst with the focus groups.

Speaking of negatives, the latest Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll delivered more bad news for Governor Bush last week: a larger-than-expected 42% of Republican primary voters said they could not see themselves supporting Jeb Bush in the primary. The only two potential candidates who had higher negatives were Christie (57%) and Trump (74%). In a culture where voters want someone who will look to the future, 60% of voters said Bush represents a return to the past. And among all Americans, Bush’s positive ratings clocked in at a dismal 23% (4% very positive, 19% somewhat positive). That actually put Jeb’s favorability below his older brother’s, who clocked in at 35% in the same poll (and well below Hillary Clinton at 44%). In other words, at this point the GOP would do better running Dubya than Jeb.

So how will Governor Bush remain in the race and be one of the two finalists? Simple: insider support. The Republican Party insiders largely belong to the Bush family, and Jeb is leveraging that support in every way possible. He will have no trouble finding staffers to man his field offices, money men to bankroll his campaign, or organizers to assemble and maintain a campaign structure. All he has to do is hit the trail and be “good enough” for the average voter. He’ll easily last the first few rounds of the fight and be one of the final contenders.

Governor Scott Walker
Meanwhile, Governor Walker’s team has become well acquainted with the harsh reality of what becomes of candidates who rise too quickly too soon. After catching flack for mishandling the Giuliani comments and Obama religion issues, as well as comparing liberal protesters to ISIS terrorists, Governor Walker went on to be slammed for giving vague answers at a Club For Growth event (and appearing to know little about the issues he was answering), flip-flopping on immigration and ethanol subsidies, and most recently, the complete bungling of the Liz Mair/Iowa situation.

All of these missteps coming in such a short window of time have left the party insiders with severe doubts about Walker’s ability to hold up during the rest of the campaign — or, more importantly, during a general campaign against Hillary Clinton. Indeed, leaks have appeared in numerous articles of the past few weeks in which insiders question whether Walker is ready or has what it takes. Those sorts of questions have the potential to doom a Walker candidacy before the actual campaign even begins. To add insult to injury, however, the way in which Governor Walker handled the Liz Mair firing/resignation has turned the conservative blogosphere against him as well: RedState, NRO, HotAir, Ace of Spades, and several other prominent blogs have all attacked Governor Walker, leaving him without a solid base of support any longer. He was supposed to be the candidate who bridged the gap between the grassroots and the establishment, and he has now caused both sides to back away and question him. He was supposed to be the candidate running on strength and honesty, and so the lack of issue knowledge, flip-flopping on issues, and pandering to Iowa voters will be his Achilles’ heel. Unlike Governor Bush, he doesn’t have the apparatus to prop himself back up, either. Which leaves us with…

Senator Marco Rubio
Senator Rubio has yet to break 7% in any Republican primary poll, and often trails the likes of Rand Paul, Ben Carson, Scott Walker, Chris Christie, Mike Huckabee, and others. And yet, I would assert that at this point he is the best positioned of any candidate in the field. Why? Because of three things: what he’s shown during speeches and interviews, the attention he’s getting from GOP insiders, and the relationship he’s cultivating with Governor Mitt Romney.

The first, his speeches and interviews, comes down to his innate ability to communicate. He is clearly and hands down the most effective communicator of the potential Republican field, and every time he gets in front of people to speak it benefits his chances. (This is, obviously, in stark contrast to Hillary Clinton, and to some degree to Governors Bush and Walker as well.) His CPAC speech and subsequent Q&A didn’t result in a straw poll victory, but it did result in several movers and shakers in GOP circles sitting up and taking notice. Where other candidates-to-be majored in vague boilerplate and platitudes, Rubio majored in the specifics. Where others had difficulty differentiating themselves and answering the question, “Why are you running for president?” Rubio made insiders drool while imagining him saying, “I owe a debt to America I could never repay” during a debate with Hillary Clinton. Senator Rubio has been deliberate in limiting his appearances thus far so as not to fall into the same trap as Governor Walker has (and that Governor Romney did in 2007-08). But when he does speak, he makes sure he knows what he’s going to say and clearly anticipates the questions he will receive and practices how to answer them (unlike Governor Bush). Meanwhile, he’s working tirelessly behind the scenes to cobble together a donor network and campaign team that will never rival the size of Governor Bush’s, but will certainly rival (and perhaps best) its tenacity and loyalty.

All of that results in some tectonic movement in the rank-and-file of the GOP. They are watching Senator Rubio very carefully and optimistically, and if he proves to be the real deal during the spring and summer months, could land enough of their support to KO Governor Bush next winter. Just look at the tone of the insiders from this NRO piece:

Insider Buzz Grows for Marco Rubio… “Everybody’s talking about Rubio.” So says a top Republican operative who’s been in touch with nearly every potential presidential campaign, as well as with several top donors… “The Jeb boom is over and people are having second thoughts about Walker…” Marco Rubio, who now has many of the party’s top donors looking at him… his knowledgeable presentations and obvious political talent are nonetheless turning heads or, at least, enough of them.

That same WSJ/NBC News poll that delivered troubling data to Governor Bush also gave a glimpse of just how much potential Rubio has in this race: a full 56% of Republican voters could see themselves supporting Rubio — the highest level of support for any of the 14 candidates in the survey. In this primary, slow and steady may end up winning the race, and if that’s the case Senator Rubio will be the one holding the trophy at the finish line. And Rubio may well have a secret weapon up his sleeve — the support he’s receiving from none other than Mitt Romney.

When Romney announced he wasn’t running in 2016, he declared it was time for a new face of a younger generation to lead the party. It is becoming increasingly clear the Massachusetts Governor had Marco Rubio in mind when he said that: the Washington Post reports Romney and Rubio have had at least two “lengthy” phone calls, and many of Romney’s campaign staff and donors have come out praising the Florida Senator, including Lanhee Chen (Romney’s policy director), Spencer Zwick (national finance chairman), Rich Beeson (national political director), and Jim Merrill (New Hampshire strategist). In fact, Rubio’s campaign has already hired the latter two, and it’s probably just a matter of time before more of Team Romney jump aboard Rubio’s ship. Governor Bush will have the big name money bundlers in New York and Florida, and no one will raise more money than him this primary campaign, but if Romney gets the rest of his donor network to back Rubio it may make Rubio at least more competitive financially speaking.

And so as Governor Walker begins to fade due to a series of self-inflicted wounds, and other candidates like Ted Cruz, Rand Paul, Ben Carson, and Rick Perry hit their naturally low ceilings, the two serious candidates who will fight for the GOP nomination in 2016 will be Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio. One has inevitability on his side, which is a powerful force in GOP primaries (see McCain, 2008). The other has potential on his side, which can be an equally powerful force if harnessed and realized. I’ll predict those two as the two frontrunners come voting time, but it’s anybody’s guess as to which one will end up winning.

by @ 8:00 am. Filed under 2016, Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, Republican Party, Scott Walker

March 18, 2015

Poll Watch: CNN/ORC 2016 Republican Nomination Survey

CNN/ORC 2016 GOP Nomination Poll

  • Jeb Bush 16% (14%) {23%} [14%] (8%) {12%} [13%] (9%) {10%} [6%] (10%)
  • Scott Walker 13% (11%) {4%} [5%] (5%) {5%} [7%]
  • Rand Paul 12% (10%) {6%} [8%] (12%) {14%} [13%] (16%) {13%} [13%] (13%)
  • Mike Huckabee 10% (16%) {6%} [10%] (12%) {11%} [10%] (10%) {14%}
  • Ben Carson 9% (8%) {7%} [11%]
  • Chris Christie 7% (7%) {13%} [9%] (13%) {8%} [9%] (8%) {10%} [24%] (17%)
  • Marco Rubio 7% (5%) {5%} [3%] (6%) {8%} [6%] (5%) {9%} [9%] (9%)
  • Ted Cruz 4% (3%) {4%} [7%] (8%) {9%} [7%] (8%) {8%} [10%] (7%)
  • Rick Perry 4% (3%) {4%} [5%] (11%) {6%} [8%] (11%) {8%} [7%] (6%)
  • John Kasich 2% (2%) {3%} [3%]
  • Lindsey Graham 1% (1%)
  • Bobby Jindal 1% (1%) {4%} [1%]
  • Rick Santorum 1% (3%) {2%} [2%] (3%) {4%} [2%] (3%) {4%} [6%] (5%)
  • Carly Fiorina 0% (1%)

Survey of 450 Republicans and GOP-leaning Independents was conducted March 13-15, 2015.  The margin of error is +/- 4.5 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted February 12-15, 2015 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted December 18-21, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted November 21-23, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted July 18-20, 2014 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted May 29 – June 1, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted May 2-4, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted March 7-9, 2014 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted January 31 – February 2, 2014 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 18-20, 2013 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 6-8, 2013 are in parentheses.

Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 5:19 pm. Filed under 2016, Jeb Bush, Poll Watch, Republican Party

March 13, 2015

Poll Watch: Quinnipiac Connecticut 2016 Republican Primary Survey

Quinnipiac Connecticut 2016 GOP Primary Poll

  • Jeb Bush 18%
  • Scott Walker 18%
  • Rand Paul 12%
  • Chris Christie 11%
  • Ben Carson 7%  
  • Ted Cruz 5%
  • Marco Rubio 4%
  • Mike Huckabee 3%
  • Bobby Jindal 2%
  • Rick Perry 2%
  • John Kasich 0%
  • Lindsey Graham 0%
  • Rick Santorum 0%

Survey of 323 registered Republicans was conducted March 6-9, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 5.5 percentage points.

Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 8:00 am. Filed under 2016, Jeb Bush, Poll Watch, Republican Party, Scott Walker

March 8, 2015

Poll Watch: McClatchy-Marist 2016 Republican Nomination Survey

McClatchy-Marist 2016 GOP Nomination Poll

  • Jeb Bush 19% [16%] (15%) {13%} [13%] (8%) {8%} [10%] (10%)
  • Scott Walker 18% [3%] (3%) {4%} [5%] (7%) {4%} [4%] (2%)
  • Mike Huckabee 10% [12%] [13%] (13%)
  • Ben Carson 9% [8%]
  • Rand Paul 7% [6%] (13%) {7%} [12%] (9%) {9%} [12%] (9%)
  • Chris Christie 6% [10%] (12%) {13%} [12%] (13%) {16%} [18%] (15%)
  • Marco Rubio 5% [3%] (6%) {9%} [7%] (12%) {7%} [7%] (12%)
  • Ted Cruz 4% [5%] (4%) {10%} [4%] (5%) {5%} [10%] (7%)
  • Rick Perry 3% [5%] (7%) {7%} [3%] (2%) {6%} [3%] (4%)
  • Rick Santorum 2% [3%] (3%) {3%} [3%] (2%) {5%} [4%] (2%)
  • Carly Fiorina 2% [1%]
  • Lindsey Graham 1%
  • Undecided 13% [18%] (21%) {23%} [14%] (12%) {25%} [13%] (25%)

Survey of 426 registered Republicans and GOP-leaning Independents was conducted March 1-4, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 4.7 percentage points. Party ID: 68% {70%} (67%) {57%} [63%] (64%) {65%} [62%] (65%) Republican; 32% {30%} (33%) {43%} [37%] (36%) {35%} [38%] (35%) Independent. Results from the poll conducted December 3-9, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted September 24-29, 2014 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted August 4-7, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted April 7-10, 2014 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 4-9, 2014 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted January 12-14, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted December 3-5, 2013 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 15-18, 2013 are in parentheses.

Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 11:00 am. Filed under 2016, Jeb Bush, Poll Watch, Republican Party

March 7, 2015

Poll Watch: PPP (D) Ohio 2016 Presidential Survey

  • Hillary Clinton (D) 45% (50%)
  • Jeb Bush (R) 40% (36%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 49%
  • Scott Walker (R) 41%

Survey of 946 registered voters was conducted March 2-3, 2015.  Party ID: 41% (42%) Democrat; 36% (36%) Republican; 22% (22%)Independent/Other.  Results from the poll conducted August 16-19, 2013 are in parentheses.

Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 12:00 pm. Filed under 2016, Hillary Clinton, Jeb Bush, Poll Watch, Scott Walker

March 6, 2015

Poll Watch: PPP (D) North Carolina 2016 Presidential Survey

PPP (D) North Carolina 2016 Presidential Poll

  • Ben Carson (R) 46% (45%) {44%}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 45% (45%) {44%}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 46% {46%} [45%] (45%) {46%} [47%] (48%) {49%} [48%]
  • Mike Huckabee (R) 46% {44%} [46%] (44%) {43%} [43%] (43%) {42%} [43%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 45% (46%)
  • Scott Walker (R) 43% (44%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 45% {44%} [45%] (45%) {45%} [44%] (46%) {46%} [45%] (42%) {42%} [43%]
  • Chris Christie (R) 42% {42%} [38%] (38%) {41%} [40%] (44%) {42%} [42%] (43%) {45%} [46%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 46% [46%] (47%) {46%} [45%] (47%) {49%} [47%] (47%) {48%} [50%] (52%) 
  • Rand Paul (R) 43% [41%] (42%) {43%} [44%] (43%) {43%} [44%] (43%) {44%} [41%] (40%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 47%
  • Rick Perry (R) 44%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 46%
  • Marco Rubio (R) 42%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 47% [48%] (47%) (47%) {49%} [51%]
  • Ted Cruz (R) 43% [40%] (41%) (41%) {41%} [39%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 46% (44%) {46%} [43%] (46%) {45%} [45%] (45%) {47%} [47%] (46%) {46%} [47%]
  • Jeb Bush (R) 42% (44%) {46%} [45%] (42%) {44%} [42%] (44%) {46%} [43%] (44%) {45%} [43%]
  • Jeb Bush (R) 47% {47%}
  • Joe Biden (D) 40% {42%}
  • Jeb Bush (R) 44% {46%}
  • Elizabeth Warren (D) 38% {39%}

Survey of 849 registered North Carolina voters was conducted February 24-26, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 3.4 percentage points. Party ID: 44% (43%) {42%} [45%] (42%) {43%} [42%] (42%) {42%} [39%] (43%) {43%} [45%] Democrat; 35% (34%) {36%} [34%] (31%) {36%} [35%] (36%) {35%} [34%] (33%) {34%} [33%] Republican; 21% (23%) {22%} [21%] (27%) {22%} [23%] (22%) {23%} [27%] (23%) {23%} [21%] Independent/Other.  Results from the poll conducted January 29-31, 2015 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted December 4-7, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted September 11-14, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted August 14-17, 2014 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted June 12-15, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted May 9-11, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted April 3-6, 2014 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted March 6-9, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted February 6-9, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted January 9-12, 2014are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted December 5-8, 2013 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 8-11, 2013 are in square brackets.

Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 8:00 am. Filed under 2016, Ben Carson, Hillary Clinton, Jeb Bush, Poll Watch, Republican Party

March 5, 2015

Poll Watch: Gravis Marketing (R) South Carolina 2016 Republican Primary Survey

  • Jeb Bush 19% {18%} [22%] (16.0%)
  • Scott Walker 17% {11%} [5%] (2.3%)
  • Lindsey Graham 12%
  • Mike Huckabee 10% {11%} [19%] (15.8%)  
  • Chris Christie 8% {8%} [12%] (16.6%)
  • Marco Rubio 6% {9%} [6%] (7.2%)
  • Rand Paul 6% {8%} [8%] (9.7%)
  • Ted Cruz 2% {9%} [8%] (11.1%)
  • Rick Santorum 2% {4%} [2%] (2.8%)
  • Carly Fiorina 2%
  • Unsure 16% {17%} [19%] (18.5%)

Survey of 792 ikely GOP primary voters was conducted February 24-25, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted January 21-22, 2015 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted March 6-7, 2014 are in square brackets.Results from the poll conducted November 30 – December 2, 2013 are in parentheses.

Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 2:34 pm. Filed under 2016, Jeb Bush, Poll Watch, Republican Party

March 4, 2015

Poll Watch: Gravis Insights/Howie Carr (R) Florida 2016 Republican Primary Survey

Gravis Insights/Howie Carr (R) Florida 2016 GOP Primary Poll

  • Jeb Bush 23% (33%)
  • Scott Walker 22%
  • Marco Rubio 11% (14%)
  • Mike Huckabee 10%
  • Ben Carson 8%
  • Chris Christie 6% (6%)
  • Rand Paul 5% (11%)
  • Ted Cruz 2% (11%)
  • Rick Perry 1%
  • Unsure 12% (13%)

Survey of 513 Republican voters was conducted February 24-25, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted November 19-20, 2014 are in parentheses.

Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 12:14 pm. Filed under 2016, Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, Poll Watch, Republican Party

March 2, 2015

News, And Yet No News

The CPAC event just concluded in Washington, DC has proven, through its straw poll, to be another mostly irrelevant marker in the presidential election cycle. The winner of the straw poll was Kentucky Senator Rand Paul. Coming in second was Wisconsin Senator Scott Walker. Third and fourth were Ben Carson and TexasmSenator Ted Cruz. Only Mr. Walker has a serious chance to win the nomination, but his finish at CPAC had already been foreshadowed weeks before, following a speech he made in Iowa, and in all of the recent polls. Coming in a distant fifth at CPAC was the Republican frontrunner former Florida Governor Jeb Bush. Further down the list was New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, a potentially serious contender, especially after the first debates and the primary/caucus season begins.

The next GOP presidential campaign marker will be the Iowa Straw Poll in Ames in August. This will be, as it has been in the past, another mostly irrelevant event. In 2011, the Straw Poll winner was Michele Bachmann who turned out not to be a serious contender. The Straw Poll rarely is won by the eventual GOP nominee.

A parade of self-promoting wannabes, such as Donald Trump and Rick Santorum, will continue to win media headlines in the coming months, and various other political figures will attempt to rise about the lower tiers of the field. It can be done. Scott Walker has already done this. But the eventual nominee will be someone who can win votes in the primaries and caucuses from the broader base of the conservative Republican Party. And if that nominee is to win the presidency in November, 2016, he or she will need to win a majority of votes from the non-affiliated independent voters in the nation. A good many, if not most, of those voters are more centrist than the base voters of either party, and that is why the serious contenders for president do not come from the far right or the far left.

On the Democratic side, the party awaits the formal decision of former New York Senator Hillary Clinton. She has been the overwhelming frontrunner of her party for 2016 from the beginning. Her image and her numbers have declined a bit in recent months, and her “handlers” have thus kept her out of the campaign spotlight, but her lead remains very large. Only Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren has emerged as a potential threat, yet Mrs. Warren might not even run.

There are two campaign seasons in the race for president of the United States. The earlier and longer one is managed with the cooperation of the political party activists and the news media. It is usually an extended melodrama punctuated by such events as the CPAC conference, the Iowa Straw Poll, Jefferson dinners and talk shows where large numbers of hopefuls attempt, with histrionics and bravado, to become larger than life, and grab the notice of the relatively few folks who are paying attention. The second campaign is the one where voters increasingly pay attention, and which climaxes on Election Day.

I don’t have to say which of these campaigns counts most.

————————————————————————————————————————-
Copyright (c) 2015 by Barry Casselman. All rights reserved.

February 27, 2015

Poll Watch: Elon University North Carolina 2016 Presidential Survey

Elon University North Carolina 2016 Presidential Poll

  • Hillary Clinton (D) 45.7%
  • Jeb Bush (R) 40.2%

Survey of 773 registered North Carolina voters was conducted February 16-20, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 3.52 percentage points

Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 11:30 am. Filed under 2016, Hillary Clinton, Jeb Bush, Poll Watch

February 26, 2015

Jeb Bush Pro Same Sex Marriage?

Buzzfeed thinks he just might be:

Bush’s official stance is that he believes marriage should be between a man and a woman, and that states should have the right to craft their own laws on the matter, free of tampering from federal courts.

But inside Bush’s orbit, some believe his personal feelings on the subject may have evolved beyond his on-the-record statements. Three Republican supporters who have recently spoken with Bush as he’s blitzed the GOP fundraising circuit told BuzzFeed News they came away with the impression that on the question of marriage equality, he was supportive at best and agnostic at worst.

“He wants to do the respectful, human thing,” said one of the Republicans, a donor who requested anonymity to comment on private conversations.

If, as many observers expect, the Supreme Court rules this June to extend marriage rights to all same-sex couples nationwide, some of Bush’s pro-gay donors are hoping he will use the moment to fully pivot toward an embrace of marriage equality — turning himself into the first serious pro-gay GOP presidential candidate.

“His thinking appears to have evolved,” said David Aufhauser, a former senior Treasury official who co-hosted a fundraiser for Bush earlier this month in Virginia.

This is the man who has expressed concern about pretending to be Conservative in order to win the nomination.

You don’t suppose that this getting published the day before Sean Hannity is going to interview Bush live onstage at CPAC is purely coincidental, do you?

by @ 4:04 pm. Filed under Jeb Bush

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