March 6, 2015

Poll Watch: PPP (D) North Carolina 2016 Presidential Survey

PPP (D) North Carolina 2016 Presidential Poll

  • Ben Carson (R) 46% (45%) {44%}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 45% (45%) {44%}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 46% {46%} [45%] (45%) {46%} [47%] (48%) {49%} [48%]
  • Mike Huckabee (R) 46% {44%} [46%] (44%) {43%} [43%] (43%) {42%} [43%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 45% (46%)
  • Scott Walker (R) 43% (44%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 45% {44%} [45%] (45%) {45%} [44%] (46%) {46%} [45%] (42%) {42%} [43%]
  • Chris Christie (R) 42% {42%} [38%] (38%) {41%} [40%] (44%) {42%} [42%] (43%) {45%} [46%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 46% [46%] (47%) {46%} [45%] (47%) {49%} [47%] (47%) {48%} [50%] (52%) 
  • Rand Paul (R) 43% [41%] (42%) {43%} [44%] (43%) {43%} [44%] (43%) {44%} [41%] (40%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 47%
  • Rick Perry (R) 44%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 46%
  • Marco Rubio (R) 42%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 47% [48%] (47%) (47%) {49%} [51%]
  • Ted Cruz (R) 43% [40%] (41%) (41%) {41%} [39%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 46% (44%) {46%} [43%] (46%) {45%} [45%] (45%) {47%} [47%] (46%) {46%} [47%]
  • Jeb Bush (R) 42% (44%) {46%} [45%] (42%) {44%} [42%] (44%) {46%} [43%] (44%) {45%} [43%]
  • Jeb Bush (R) 47% {47%}
  • Joe Biden (D) 40% {42%}
  • Jeb Bush (R) 44% {46%}
  • Elizabeth Warren (D) 38% {39%}

Survey of 849 registered North Carolina voters was conducted February 24-26, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 3.4 percentage points. Party ID: 44% (43%) {42%} [45%] (42%) {43%} [42%] (42%) {42%} [39%] (43%) {43%} [45%] Democrat; 35% (34%) {36%} [34%] (31%) {36%} [35%] (36%) {35%} [34%] (33%) {34%} [33%] Republican; 21% (23%) {22%} [21%] (27%) {22%} [23%] (22%) {23%} [27%] (23%) {23%} [21%] Independent/Other.  Results from the poll conducted January 29-31, 2015 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted December 4-7, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted September 11-14, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted August 14-17, 2014 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted June 12-15, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted May 9-11, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted April 3-6, 2014 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted March 6-9, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted February 6-9, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted January 9-12, 2014are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted December 5-8, 2013 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 8-11, 2013 are in square brackets.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 8:00 am. Filed under 2016, Ben Carson, Hillary Clinton, Jeb Bush, Poll Watch, Republican Party

March 5, 2015

Poll Watch: Gravis Marketing (R) South Carolina 2016 Republican Primary Survey

  • Jeb Bush 19% {18%} [22%] (16.0%)
  • Scott Walker 17% {11%} [5%] (2.3%)
  • Lindsey Graham 12%
  • Mike Huckabee 10% {11%} [19%] (15.8%)  
  • Chris Christie 8% {8%} [12%] (16.6%)
  • Marco Rubio 6% {9%} [6%] (7.2%)
  • Rand Paul 6% {8%} [8%] (9.7%)
  • Ted Cruz 2% {9%} [8%] (11.1%)
  • Rick Santorum 2% {4%} [2%] (2.8%)
  • Carly Fiorina 2%
  • Unsure 16% {17%} [19%] (18.5%)

Survey of 792 ikely GOP primary voters was conducted February 24-25, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted January 21-22, 2015 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted March 6-7, 2014 are in square brackets.Results from the poll conducted November 30 – December 2, 2013 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 2:34 pm. Filed under 2016, Jeb Bush, Poll Watch, Republican Party

March 4, 2015

Poll Watch: Gravis Insights/Howie Carr (R) Florida 2016 Republican Primary Survey

Gravis Insights/Howie Carr (R) Florida 2016 GOP Primary Poll

  • Jeb Bush 23% (33%)
  • Scott Walker 22%
  • Marco Rubio 11% (14%)
  • Mike Huckabee 10%
  • Ben Carson 8%
  • Chris Christie 6% (6%)
  • Rand Paul 5% (11%)
  • Ted Cruz 2% (11%)
  • Rick Perry 1%
  • Unsure 12% (13%)

Survey of 513 Republican voters was conducted February 24-25, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted November 19-20, 2014 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 12:14 pm. Filed under 2016, Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, Poll Watch, Republican Party

March 2, 2015

News, And Yet No News

The CPAC event just concluded in Washington, DC has proven, through its straw poll, to be another mostly irrelevant marker in the presidential election cycle. The winner of the straw poll was Kentucky Senator Rand Paul. Coming in second was Wisconsin Senator Scott Walker. Third and fourth were Ben Carson and TexasmSenator Ted Cruz. Only Mr. Walker has a serious chance to win the nomination, but his finish at CPAC had already been foreshadowed weeks before, following a speech he made in Iowa, and in all of the recent polls. Coming in a distant fifth at CPAC was the Republican frontrunner former Florida Governor Jeb Bush. Further down the list was New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, a potentially serious contender, especially after the first debates and the primary/caucus season begins.

The next GOP presidential campaign marker will be the Iowa Straw Poll in Ames in August. This will be, as it has been in the past, another mostly irrelevant event. In 2011, the Straw Poll winner was Michele Bachmann who turned out not to be a serious contender. The Straw Poll rarely is won by the eventual GOP nominee.

A parade of self-promoting wannabes, such as Donald Trump and Rick Santorum, will continue to win media headlines in the coming months, and various other political figures will attempt to rise about the lower tiers of the field. It can be done. Scott Walker has already done this. But the eventual nominee will be someone who can win votes in the primaries and caucuses from the broader base of the conservative Republican Party. And if that nominee is to win the presidency in November, 2016, he or she will need to win a majority of votes from the non-affiliated independent voters in the nation. A good many, if not most, of those voters are more centrist than the base voters of either party, and that is why the serious contenders for president do not come from the far right or the far left.

On the Democratic side, the party awaits the formal decision of former New York Senator Hillary Clinton. She has been the overwhelming frontrunner of her party for 2016 from the beginning. Her image and her numbers have declined a bit in recent months, and her “handlers” have thus kept her out of the campaign spotlight, but her lead remains very large. Only Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren has emerged as a potential threat, yet Mrs. Warren might not even run.

There are two campaign seasons in the race for president of the United States. The earlier and longer one is managed with the cooperation of the political party activists and the news media. It is usually an extended melodrama punctuated by such events as the CPAC conference, the Iowa Straw Poll, Jefferson dinners and talk shows where large numbers of hopefuls attempt, with histrionics and bravado, to become larger than life, and grab the notice of the relatively few folks who are paying attention. The second campaign is the one where voters increasingly pay attention, and which climaxes on Election Day.

I don’t have to say which of these campaigns counts most.

————————————————————————————————————————-
Copyright (c) 2015 by Barry Casselman. All rights reserved.

February 27, 2015

Poll Watch: Elon University North Carolina 2016 Presidential Survey

Elon University North Carolina 2016 Presidential Poll

  • Hillary Clinton (D) 45.7%
  • Jeb Bush (R) 40.2%

Survey of 773 registered North Carolina voters was conducted February 16-20, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 3.52 percentage points

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 11:30 am. Filed under 2016, Hillary Clinton, Jeb Bush, Poll Watch

February 26, 2015

Jeb Bush Pro Same Sex Marriage?

Buzzfeed thinks he just might be:

Bush’s official stance is that he believes marriage should be between a man and a woman, and that states should have the right to craft their own laws on the matter, free of tampering from federal courts.

But inside Bush’s orbit, some believe his personal feelings on the subject may have evolved beyond his on-the-record statements. Three Republican supporters who have recently spoken with Bush as he’s blitzed the GOP fundraising circuit told BuzzFeed News they came away with the impression that on the question of marriage equality, he was supportive at best and agnostic at worst.

“He wants to do the respectful, human thing,” said one of the Republicans, a donor who requested anonymity to comment on private conversations.

If, as many observers expect, the Supreme Court rules this June to extend marriage rights to all same-sex couples nationwide, some of Bush’s pro-gay donors are hoping he will use the moment to fully pivot toward an embrace of marriage equality — turning himself into the first serious pro-gay GOP presidential candidate.

“His thinking appears to have evolved,” said David Aufhauser, a former senior Treasury official who co-hosted a fundraiser for Bush earlier this month in Virginia.

This is the man who has expressed concern about pretending to be Conservative in order to win the nomination.

You don’t suppose that this getting published the day before Sean Hannity is going to interview Bush live onstage at CPAC is purely coincidental, do you?

by @ 4:04 pm. Filed under Jeb Bush

Ben Carson at CPAC

Ben Carson gives the opening address at CPAC. C-SPAN has video of the first round of speeches here. His speech begins at 11:45.  It runs about twenty minutes.

Here are just a couple highlights:

“It’s interesting to me that the Left in particular loves to re-label and rename things. For instance, if you’re pro-life, you’re anti-woman. If you’re pro-traditional family, then you’re a homophobe…if you’re black, and you oppose a progressive agenda, you’re crazy. .”

“We are a very smart people and a very compassionate people, and we need to find out how [to] strengthen the framework of this country. It is our responsibility to take care of the indigent; it is not the government’s responsibility.”

PPP has him in second place behind Scott Walker and ahead of Jeb Bush in their latest national poll. Quinipiac recently had him in third place in Iowa, trailing Walker and Rand Paul, tied with Mike Huckabee, and once again ahead of Jeb Bush who only manages a fifth place finish.

For now he is solidly on the leaderboard. Can he stay there? Who knows. Go to the video and determine for yourself if you think he has what it takes to finish strong, or if he is going to end up being just another flash-in-the-pan.

 

 

by @ 3:46 pm. Filed under Ben Carson, Jeb Bush, Mike Huckabee, Rand Paul, Scott Walker

February 25, 2015

Poll Watch: Quinnipiac Iowa 2016 Republican Caucus Survey

Quinnipiac Iowa 2016 GOP Caucus Poll

  • Scott Walker 25%
  • Rand Paul 13%
  • Ben Carson 11%
  • Mike Huckabee 11%
  • Jeb Bush 10%
  • Ted Cruz 5%
  • Chris Christie 4%
  • Marco Rubio 4%
  • Rick Santorum 4%
  • Rick Perry 3%
  • Bobby Jindal 2%
  • John Kasich 0%

Survey of 623 likely Iowa Republican caucus participants was conducted February 16-23, 2015.  The margin of error is +/- 3.9 percentage points. Gender: 60% Men; 40% Women. Political philosophy: 45% Very conservative; 28% Somewhat conservative; 25% Moderate/Liberal.

Thoughts:

  • Walker’s doing very well in Iowa. He nearly doubles his closest competitor and enjoys a double digit lead.
  • Carson continues to be a strong second tier candidate.
  • The second tier in Iowa currently is Paul, Carson, Huckabee, Bush. They are bunched up within 3 ppts of each other — the MOE.
  • Bush barely cracks double digits.
  • The “noise” candidates are Cruz, Christie, Rubio,  Santorum, Perry, and Jindal. They are in the lower single digits with only Cruz managing to crack 5 ppts.
  • I am continually struck at the poor showing of Rick Santorum. He finished second in 2012. He should, by all rights, be at least in the second tier, but he consistently polls at or near the bottom of every poll.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

February 24, 2015

Poll Watch: PPP (D) 2016 Republican Nomination Survey

PPP has just released their latest 2016 Presidential polling for the Republican Nomination. Their results for the end of February are as follows:

PPP (D) 2016 GOP Nomination Poll

  • Scott Walker 25% (11%)
  • Ben Carson 18% (15%)
  • Jeb Bush 17% (17%)
  • Mike Huckabee 10% (9%)
  • Chris Christie 5% (7%)
  • Ted Cruz 5% (9%)
  • Rand Paul 4% (4%)
  • Rick Perry 3% (2%)
  • Marco Rubio 3%
  • Someone else/Not sure 11% (5%)

Survey of 316 Republican primary voters was conducted February 20-22, 2015.  The margin of error is +/- 5.5 percentage points.  Political ideology: 38% (38%) Somewhat conservative; 38% (35%) Very conservative; 17% (21%) Moderate; 6% (5%) Somewhat liberal; 2% (1%) Very liberal. Results from the poll conducted January 22-25, 2015 are in parentheses.

Trend lines:

PPP 2016 GOP Presidential Race

Some thoughts:

  1. I think it safe to call Scott Walker the legitimate front runner for now. This in spite of the almost manic frenzy the liberal press has been having lately trying to knock him out of the race.
  2. Jeb Bush is not doing so well. He is stagnating.
  3. Ben Carson is doing very well. He even tops Bush, though well within the MOE.
  4. Mike Huckabee is the only candidate that went from single to double digits. The rest of the field: Christie, Cruz, Paul, Perry, and Rubio — are going nowhere fast.
  5. Mitt Romney dropped out. Now that the dust is beginning to settle, it would appear that Walker and Someone Else/Not Sure are the key beneficiaries of Mitt’s withdrawal.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

February 23, 2015

Poll Watch: YeeHaw! Cruz and Walker Lead in Texas

A new poll out of Texas has Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker and Texas Senator Ted Cruz neck and neck in the race for the 2016 GOP Presidential nomination. The University of Texas / Texas Tribune have released the following results:

  • Ted Cruz 20% [27%] (33%) {28%} [32%] (25%)
  • Scott Walker 19% [2%] (4%) {6%} [1%]
  • Jeb Bush 9% [7%] (7%) {8%} [9%]
  • Ben Carson 9% [10%]
  • Rick Perry 8% [14%] (7%) {10%} [10%] (10%)
  • Mike Huckabee 5% [7%] (8%)
  • Rand Paul 4% [7%] (9%) {10%} [6%] (13%)
  • Marco Rubio 4% [3%] (6%) {6%} [6%] (11%)
  • Sarah Palin 3%
  • Chris Christie 2% [3%] (3%) {4%} [4%] (8%)
  • Bobby Jindal 1% [2%] (2%) {6%} [3%] (2%)
  • Rick Santorum 1% [1%] (1%) {4%} [3%] (2%)
  • John Kasich 1% [0%]
  • Carly Fiorina 0%
  • John Bolton 0%
  • Lindsey Graham 0%

Internet survey of 547 registered GOP primary voters was conducted February 6-15, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 4.19 percentage points.Results from the poll conducted October 10-19, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted May 30 – June 8, 2014 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted February 7-17, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted October 18-27, 2013are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted May 31 – June 9, 2013 are in parentheses.

The Tribune is calling it a tie.

The result I find most interesting is Rick Perry is in fifth place with less than half the support of either of the front runners. If this keeps up, his nascent 2016 campaign isn’t going to do much better than his 2012 campaign.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

February 20, 2015

Poll Watch: PPP (D) South Carolina 2016 Presidential Survey

  • Mike Huckabee (R) 49%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 41%
  • Ben Carson (R) 48%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 41%
  • Jeb Bush (R) 49%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 42%
  • Rick Perry (R) 48%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 43%
  • Scott Walker (R) 46%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 42%
  • Ted Cruz (R) 46%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 43%
  • Chris Christie (R) 43%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 41%
  • Lindsey Graham (R) 45%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 43%
  • Rand Paul (R) 45%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 43%
  • Jeb Bush (R) 50%
  • Elizabeth Warren (D) 34%
  • Jeb Bush (R) 53%
  • Joe Biden (D) 36%

Survey of 868 registered South Carolina voters was conducted February 12-15, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 3.3 percentage points. Party ID: 44% Republican; 32% Democrat; 25% Independent/Other. Ideology: 33% Moderate; 27% Somewhat conservative; 19% Very conservative; 13% Somewhat liberal; 9% Very liberal.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

Poll Watch: PPP (D) South Carolina 2016 Republican Primary Survey

  • Jeb Bush 19%
  • Scott Walker 18%
  • Lindsey Graham 13%
  • Ben Carson 13% 
  • Mike Huckabee 12% 
  • Chris Christie 7%
  • Rand Paul 5%
  • Ted Cruz 3% 
  • Rick Perry 3%
  • Someone else/Not sure 6%

Survey of 525 GOP primary voters was conducted February 12-15, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 4.3 percentage points. Ideology: 38% Somewhat conservative; 33% Very conservative; 23% Moderate; 5% Somewhat liberal; 2% Very liberal.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 10:07 am. Filed under 2016, Jeb Bush, Poll Watch, Republican Party

February 19, 2015

Thoughts On the Latest CNN Poll

The latest CNN poll, as posted below, has Huckabee in the lead with Bush and Walker close behind. After all the usual disclaimers of it being a super early poll and all that goes with it, here are my thoughts:

I LOVE IT!!!

I can’t help it. It’s not that I am a big fan of Huckabee; I’m not. It’s just that I do not care all the much for Jeb Bush. Any poll that shows the “Republican Establishment’s” anointed one trailing is a good poll for me.

Bush represents the R.E. in a way that Mitt Romney never really did. Sure, they supported Mitt since he just might end up winning the White House, and he was the closest thing in the field to being one of them, but few of them ever seemed all that enthusiastic about him. They tended to treat him more like an outsider, which is not all that surprising really. Mitt never was much of a professional politician. He was a business leader who tried his hand at politics. His financial connections allowed him to get his foot into the clubhouse door but that’s about it. He never was a full member of the club.

Bush is different. The R.E. LOVES him. He’s one of their own after all — a true political insider, a full member of the club.  He has the backing of the Bush political machine, a machine that has won three Presidential campaigns. He’s a man that the professionals can get excited about. But they seem to be the only ones who are all that enthused for him.

How much support does Bush have outside of the R.E.? It doesn’t appear to be all that much. In that respect, he reminds me of John McCain and Bob Dole before him. The only people who seemed to have gotten really excited about either of those two were the members of the R.E.. The rank and file never showed that much enthusiasm for either of them. McCain did manage to hit a rich vein of grassroots support when he chose Sarah Palin for his running-mate, but for himself, there was very little.

Who are the candidates that currently have some serious core support among the rank and file? I would say there are three who currently have the capability of double digit support. In alphabetical order they are:

  • Huckabee,
  • Paul
  • Walker

I don’t see a whole lot of enthusiasm out there for anybody else, at least none that can be measured anywhere near double digits.

Do you?

 

by @ 12:45 pm. Filed under Jeb Bush, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, Rand Paul, Sarah Palin, Scott Walker

February 17, 2015

Poll Watch: NBC News/Marist South Carolina 2016 Presidential Survey

  • Jeb Bush (R) 48%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 45%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 46%
  • Scott Walker (R) 46%

Survey of 877 registered voters was conducted February 3-10, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 3.3 percentage points.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 2:43 pm. Filed under 2016, Hillary Clinton, Jeb Bush, Poll Watch, Scott Walker

Poll Watch: NBC News/Marist Iowa 2016 Presidential Survey

  • Hillary Clinton (D) 48% (46%)
  • Jeb Bush (R) 40% (42%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 49% (50%)
  • Scott Walker (R) 38% (37%)

Survey of 891 registered voters was conducted February 3-10, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 3.3 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted July 7-13, 2014 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 11:49 am. Filed under 2016, Hillary Clinton, Jeb Bush, Poll Watch, Scott Walker

February 16, 2015

Nevada Might Actually Matter

Scott Conroy has an interesting article on RCP today, arguing that, with Mitt Romney out, Nevada might be important this cycle.

I read it shortly after looking through the NBC/Marist polls below that show three different leaders in the first three states. Though I am thoroughly skeptical of polls this far in advance of voting, I considered the off-chance that they might be right, and that Mike Huckabee might win Iowa, Jeb Bush New Hampshire, and Lindsey Graham South Carolina. In that unlikely scenario, Nevada might play a huge role as a tie-breaker (or logjam-breaker). Except:

Though it is far too early to put much weight into such surveys, a poll conducted by the group Citizens for Responsible Energy Solutions found a wide-open race among likely GOP caucus-goers with Scott Walker (18 percent), Jeb Bush (12 percent) and Rand Paul (9 percent) constituting the top three.

Oh great, four winners in four states!

by @ 12:05 pm. Filed under Jeb Bush, Lindsey Graham, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, Scott Walker, Uncategorized

Poll Watch: NBC News/Marist Early State 2016 Republican Primary/Caucus Surveys

NBC News/Marist Iowa 2016 GOP Caucus Poll

  • Mike Huckabee 17%
  • Jeb Bush 16% (12%)
  • Scott Walker 15% (5%)
  • Chris Christie 9% (8%)
  • Rand Paul 7% (12%)
  • Marco Rubio 6% (7%)
  • Ben Carson 6%
  • Rick Santorum 5% (9%)
  • Rick Perry 4% (7%)
  • Ted Cruz 2% (7%)
  • Lindsey Graham 1%
  • Undecided 14% (20%)

Survey of 320 potential GOP caucus-goers was conducted February 3-10, 2015.  The margin of error is +/- 5.5 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted July 7-13, 2014 are in parentheses.

NBC News/Marist New Hampshire 2016 GOP Primary Poll

  • Jeb Bush 18% (10%)
  • Scott Walker 15% (6%)
  • Rand Paul 14% (14%)
  • Chris Christie 13% (13%)
  • Mike Huckabee 7%
  • Ben Carson 7%
  • Ted Cruz 6% (9%)
  • Marco Rubio 6% (7%)
  • Rick Perry 1% (5%)
  • Lindsey Graham 1%
  • Rick Santorum 1% (3%)
  • Undecided 13% (22%)

Survey of 381 potential GOP primary voters was conducted February 3-10, 2015.  The margin of error is +/- 5.0 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted July 7-13, 2014 are in parentheses.

NBC News/Marist South Carolina 2016 GOP Primary Poll

  • Lindsey Graham 17%
  • Jeb Bush 15%
  • Scott Walker 12%
  • Mike Huckabee 10%
  • Ben Carson 10%
  • Rand Paul 7%
  • Chris Christie 6%
  • Marco Rubio 4%
  • Rick Perry 4%
  • Rick Santorum 3%
  • Ted Cruz 1%
  • Undecided 11%

Survey of 450 potential GOP primary voters was conducted February 3-10, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 4.6 percentage points.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 4:00 am. Filed under 2016, Iowa Caucuses, Jeb Bush, Lindsey Graham, Mike Huckabee, Poll Watch, Republican Party

February 13, 2015

Poll Watch: Christopher Newport University Virginia 2016 Republican Primary Survey

CNU Virginia 2016 GOP Presidential Primary Poll

  • Jeb Bush 21% (18%)
  • Scott Walker 16% (3%) 
  • Mike Huckabee 10% (13%)
  • Chris Christie 10% (19%)
  • Ben Carson 9%
  • Rand Paul 6% (7%)
  • Marco Rubio 6% (4%)
  • Paul Ryan 5% (13%)
  • Ted Cruz 3% (9%
  • John Kasich 3%
  • Bobby Jindal 2% 
  • Rick Perry 1%
  • Mike Pence 1%
  • Rob Portman 1%
  • Rick Santorum 1% 
  • Undecided 4% (13%)

Survey of registered Republican and GOP-leaning Independent voters was conducted January 30 – February 10, 2015. Results from the poll conducted February 23-28, 2014 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 11:00 am. Filed under 2016, Jeb Bush, Poll Watch, Republican Party

February 12, 2015

Poll Watch: Saint Anselm College/Bloomberg Politics New Hampshire 2016 Presidential Survey

St. Anselm College/Bloomberg Politics New Hampshire 2016 Presidential Poll

  • Hillary Clinton 48% (48%)
  • Rand Paul 41% (41%)
  • Not sure 11% (10%)  
  • Hillary Clinton 50%
  • Scott Walker 37%
  • Not sure 14%
  • Hillary Clinton 50% (47%)
  • Jeb Bush 36% (39%)
  • Not sure 14% (14%)

Survey of 503 likely voters was conducted January 31 – February 5, 2015 by Purple Insights.  The margin of error is +/- 4.4 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted November 12-18, 2014 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 10:47 am. Filed under 2016, Hillary Clinton, Jeb Bush, Poll Watch, Rand Paul, Scott Walker

February 11, 2015

Poll Watch: PPP (D) 2016 National Presidential Survey

PPP (D) 2016 National Presidential Poll

  • Hillary Clinton (D) 45%
  • Scott Walker (R) 42%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 45% (47%) {45%} [48%] (48%) {44%} {49%} [51%]
  • Jeb Bush (R) 41% (44%) {43%} [43%] (39%) {41%} {43%} [37%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 45% (46%) {45%} [42%] (44%) {43%} [47%] (46%) {46%} [44%]
  • Chris Christie (R) 40% (42%) {43%} [45%] (39%) {42%} [44%] (42%) {41%} [42%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 46% (47%) {46%} [48%] (49%) {47%} [51%] (49%)
  • Rand Paul (R) 39% (42%) {43%} [43%] (37%) {39%} [41%] (43%)

Among Men

  • Scott Walker (R) 48%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 43%
  • Jeb Bush (R) 46% (47%) {51%} [50%] (45%) {46%} {46%}[39%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 39% (43%) {37%} [39%] (43%) {38%} {44%} [47%]
  • Chris Christie (R) 43% (49%) {51%} [56%] (45%) {46%} [47%] (46%) {46%} [44%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 42% (39%) {38%} [32%] (39%) {36%} [43%] (41%) {38%} [37%]
  • Rand Paul (R) 43% (48%) {52%} [52%] (43%) {44%} [46%] (48%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 41% (43%) {38%} [40%] (44%) {41%}[47%] (45%)

Among Women

  • Hillary Clinton (D) 46%
  • Scott Walker (R) 36%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 51% (51%) {53%} [56%] (52%) {51%} {54%} [54%]
  • Jeb Bush (R) 37% (41%) {36%} [37%] (33%) {36%} {39%} [36%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 48% (52%) {51%} [51%] (49%) {50%} [50%] (51%) {53%} [52%]
  • Chris Christie (R) 37% (36%) {36%} [36%] (34%) {37%} [41%] (37%) {37%} [39%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 50% (50%) {53%} [55%] (55%) {52%} [55%] (54%)
  • Rand Paul (R) 36% (37%) {35%} [34%] (32%) {34%} [37%] (37%)

National survey of 861 registered voters was conducted January 20-21, 2015. Party ID: 39% (41%) {39%} [40%] (38%) {41%} [41%] (38%) {42%} [43%] (44%) Democrat; 37% (34%) {36%} [34%] (34%) {32%} [33%] (34%) {33%} [34%] (32%) Republican; 23% (26%) {26%} [26%] (28%) {26%} [26%] (28%) {25%} [23%] (24%) Independent/Other.  Results from the poll conducted March 6-9, 2014 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted January 23-26, 2014 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted December 12-15, 2013 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted October 29-31, 2013 are in parentheses.   Results from the poll conducted July 19-21, 2013 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 6-9, 2013 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 27-30, 2013 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted January 31 – February 3, 2013 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted January 3-6, 2013 are in square brackets.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 4:00 am. Filed under 2016, Chris Christie, Hillary Clinton, Jeb Bush, Poll Watch, Rand Paul, Scott Walker

February 10, 2015

Poll Watch: UNH/WMUR New Hampshire 2016 Presidential Survey

UNH/WMUR New Hampshire 2016 Presidential Poll

  • Hillary Clinton 50%
  • Rand Paul 40%
  • Other 2%
  • Don’t know/Undecided 8%
  • Hillary Clinton 51%
  • Jeb Bush 39%
  • Other 2%
  • Don’t know/Undecided 8%

Survey of 776 likely New Hampshire 2016 presidential election voters was conducted January 22 – February 3, 2015.  The margin of error is +/- 3.5 percentage points.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 11:22 am. Filed under 2016, Hillary Clinton, Jeb Bush, New Hampshire Primary, Poll Watch, Rand Paul

Poll Watch: Fox 5/InsiderAdvantage (R) Georgia 2016 Republican Primary Survey

Fox 5/InsiderAdvantage (R) Georgia 2016 GOP Primary Poll

  • Jeb Bush 21.5%
  • Scott Walker 17.3%
  • Mike Huckabee 16.4%
  • Ben Carson 15.5%
  • Rick Perry 7.2%
  • Rand Paul 3.9%
  • Marco Rubio 3.9%
  • Chris Christie 3.0%
  • Donald Trump 1.9%
  • Other/No opinion 9.5%

Survey of 200 registered Republican primary voters was conducted February 4, 2015.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 9:57 am. Filed under 2016, Jeb Bush, Poll Watch, Republican Party

February 9, 2015

Poll Watch: Saint Anselm College/Bloomberg Politics New Hampshire 2016 GOP Primary Survey

St. Anselm College/Bloomberg Politics New Hampshire 2016 GOP Primary Poll

  • Jeb Bush 16% (14%)
  • Rand Paul 13% (16%)
  • Scott Walker 12%
  • Chris Christie 10% (16%)
  • Ben Carson 6% (9%)
  • Mike Huckabee 6% (8%)
  • Marco Rubio 5%
  • Ted Cruz 3% (5%)
  • Bobby Jindal 3% (4%)
  • Donald Trump 3%
  • John Kasich 2%
  • Rick Santorum 2%
  • Carly Fiorina 1%
  • Rick Perry 1% (3%)
  • Mike Pence 0%
  • Someone else 1% (1%)
  • None of the above 2% (4%)
  • Not sure 14% (13%)  

Survey of 400 likely Republican primary voters was conducted January 31 – February 5, 2015 by Purple Insights.  The margin of error is +/- 4.9 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted November 12-18, 2014 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 1:14 pm. Filed under 2016, Jeb Bush, New Hampshire Primary, Poll Watch, Republican Party

Poll Watch: PPP (D) North Carolina 2016 Presidential Survey

PPP (D) North Carolina 2016 Presidential Poll

  • Ben Carson (R) 45% {44%}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 45% {44%}
  • Jeb Bush (R) 44% {46%} [45%] (42%) {44%} [42%] (44%) {46%} [43%] (44%) {45%} [43%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 44% {46%} [43%] (46%) {45%} [45%] (45%) {47%} [47%] (46%) {46%} [47%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 46%
  • Scott Walker (R) 44%

Survey of 845 registered North Carolina voters was conducted January 29-31, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 3.4 percentage points. Party ID: 43% {42%} [45%] (42%) {43%} [42%] (42%) {42%} [39%] (43%) {43%} [45%] Democrat; 34% {36%} [34%] (31%) {36%} [35%] (36%) {35%} [34%] (33%) {34%} [33%] Republican; 23% {22%} [21%] (27%) {22%} [23%] (22%) {23%} [27%] (23%) {23%} [21%] Independent/Other.  Gender: 53% {53%} [53%] (53%) {53%} [53%] (53%) {53%} [53%] (53%) {53%} [54%] Women; 47% {47%} [47%] (47%) {47%} [47%] (47%) {47%} [47%] (47%) {47%} [46%] Men. Race: 72% {72%} [73%] (75%) {75%} [74%] (74%) {74%} [75%] (73%) {73%} [73%] White; 21% {22%} [20%] (20%) {20%} [20%] (20%) {20%} [20%] (21%) {21%} [20%] Black; 7% {6%} [7%] (5%) {5%} [6%] (6%) {6%} [5%] (6%) {6%} [6%] Other. Results from the poll conducted December 4-7, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted September 11-14, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted August 14-17, 2014 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted June 12-15, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted May 9-11, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted April 3-6, 2014 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted March 6-9, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted February 6-9, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted January 9-12, 2014 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted December 5-8, 2013 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 8-11, 2013 are in square brackets.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 4:00 am. Filed under 2016, Ben Carson, Hillary Clinton, Jeb Bush, Poll Watch, Scott Walker

February 8, 2015

Poll Watch: Monmouth University New Jersey 2016 Presidential Survey

Monmouth University New Jersey 2016 Presidential Poll

Would Chris Christie or Hillary Clinton make a better president?

  • Hillary Clinton (D) 57%
  • Chris Christie (R) 32%

(Among Republicans) Would Chris Christie or Scott Walker make a better president?

  • Chris Christie 51%
  • Scott Walker 30%

(Among Republicans) Would Chris Christie or Jeb Bush make a better president?

  • Chris Christie 46%
  • Jeb Bush 37%

Survey of 712 registered voters, including 162 Republicans, was conducted January 30 – February 2, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 3.7 percentage points among all voters; +/- 7.7% among Republicans. Party ID: 38% Democrat; 21% Republican; 41% Independent.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 5:00 am. Filed under 2016, Chris Christie, Hillary Clinton, Jeb Bush, Poll Watch, Scott Walker

February 6, 2015

Poll Watch: UNH/WMUR New Hampshire 2016 Republican Primary Survey

UNH/WMUR New Hampshire 2016 GOP Primary Poll

  • Jeb Bush 17% [15%] (11%) {7%} [3%] (8%) {10%} [5%] (5%)
  • Scott Walker 12% [3%] (3%) {3%} [2%] (2%) {2%} [1%] (3%)
  • Chris Christie 9% [12%] (19%) {12%} [9%] (16%) {21%} [11%] (14%)
  • Mike Huckabee 9% [9%] (8%)
  • Rand Paul 9% [7%] (14%) {15%} [16%] (17%) {16%} [15%] (8%)
  • Ben Carson 8%
  • Marco Rubio 5% [3%] (8%) {2%} [6%] (4%) {6%} [15%] (12%)
  • Ted Cruz 4% [6%] (5%) {7%} [3%] (6%) {4%} [2%] (1%)
  • Rick Perry 2% [2%] (2%) {1%} [2%] (1%) {4%}
  • Rick Santorum 2% [2%] (1%) {1%} (4%) {4%} [4%] (3%)
  • Donald Trump 2%
  • John Bolton 1%
  • Bobby Jindal 1% [3%] (5%) {3%} [2%] (2%)
  • John Kasich 1% [0%] (0%)
  • George Pataki 1%
  • Carly Fiorina 0%
  • Peter King 0%
  • Someone else 1% [3%] (3%) {3%} [6%] (3%) {3%} [0%] (2%)
  • Don’t know yet 15% [28%] (15%) {15%} [18%] (21%) {20%} [23%] (20%)

Survey of 348 likely Republican primary voters was conducted January 22 – February 3, 2015.  The margin of error is +/- 5.3 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted September 29 – October 5, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted June 19 – July 1, 2014 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted April 1-9, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted January 21-26, 2014 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted October 7-16, 2013 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted July 18-29, 2013 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 4-9, 2013 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted January 27 – February 3, 2013 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 9:56 am. Filed under 2016, Jeb Bush, New Hampshire Primary, Poll Watch, Republican Party

February 5, 2015

News Cycle Flavors Just Beginning

It might be 11 months until the first voting in the opening event of the U.S. 2016 presidential election, but there can be little doubt that the “on” button has been pressed for this highest profile quadrennial contest.

Mitt Romney’s decision not to run again has set a great deal into motion. Jeb Bush, as a result, is now the consensus “frontrunner.”

Following the recent Citizens United unofficial debate in Des Moines, we now also have the first informal “flavor of the news cycle,” Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker. Mr. Walker stole the show among the potential candidates (I personally thought that non-candidate New Gingrich gave the most important speech) with a shirt-sleeved talk that exceeded media expectations. The governor recently won a hard-fought re-election after initiating a series of controversial but much-applauded (by conservatives) executive actions in the Badger State. He is, of course, a very long way from the nomination (and hasn’t even formally announced), but he now clearly merits elevation to the first tier of GOP prospects, joining Jeb Bush and Chris Christie.

But he will not be the last main flavor of the news cycle in 2015. This process has a certain similarity to a team pitching rotation in major league baseball. Each starting hurler gets to pitch every four or five days. In this case, most of the serious GOP hopefuls will do something unusual to obtain media attention, and following that, they will temporarily lead in the polls. This pattern will be repeated routinely, especially after the first formal debates begin in the autumn, and subsequently after each debate — unless, of course, one frontrunning candidate catches on early and the contest becomes more or less moot.

Look for New Jersey Governor, Chris Christie already in the first tier, to become the flavor of the news cycle later, after the debates (in which he will probably shine) begin. If he decides to run, Florida Senator Marco Rubio, also an excellent speaker, could become the flavor of the news cycle after winning an early primary. Kentucky Senator Rand Paul could also reach high flavor if his supporters succeed in placing him upward in an early primary or caucus. Physician Ben Carson is already a conservative favorite, and is already showing strong numbers in early polls. Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee, former Texas Governor Rick Perry and former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum already have been flavors of the news cycle in 2011-12, but it will be difficult for them to repeat this success in 2016 — with the public and the media clamoring, as they always do, for new faces and sensations.

Be also prepared for a surprise flavor of the news cycle after someone now not expected to run gets into the race and steals attention away, at least for a while, from the frontrunners.

Remember Herman Cain?

——————————————————————————————
Copyright (c) 2015 by Barry Casselman. All rights reserved.

February 4, 2015

Why There Won’t Be Flavors of the Month in the 2016 Presidential Race

The race for the GOP nomination in 2012 saw many twists and turns, including the rise and fall of various candidates on what seemed to be an almost monthly basis, culminating in a relatively easy win for Romney when the votes were actually cast in the 2012 presidential primaries. Some have speculated that this cycle could see a repeat of this trend. I disagree.

The main reason that 2012 was so tumultuous was that neither the Republican establishment nor the conservative grassroots were able to field a candidate that satisfied everyone. The establishment was skeptical that Romney could win, and spent the first half of 2011 trying to get Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, Mitch Daniels, and Paul Ryan into the race. When all said no, the establishment circled the wagons around Romney, but only halfheartedly.

Meanwhile, the conservative grassroots seemed to be stuck with a bench of also-rans and unelectable fringe candidates, going from Newt Gingrich, to Ron Paul, to Michele Bachmann, to Rick Perry, and to Herman Cain before finally realizing that there was no grassroots candidate in the race who could effectively carry the base’s banner.

This cycle, things appear to be falling into place a bit differently. The establishment has fielded one of its crown princes, Jeb Bush, as its candidate, and Bush is quickly dispatching any threats to his role as establishment candidate. For all the talk of Bush being a paper tiger, the former Florida governor managed to muscle out Mitt Romney quite effectively, and Chris Christie seems to be bleeding support as well. John Kasich, another potential establishment candidate, doesn’t appear to even be running given Bush’s presence in the race, despite having a strong claim to the nomination on the heels of a victory in the swing state of Ohio.

At the same time, the conservative grassroots has a stronger bench this time around, with Rand Paul, Ted Cruz, Mike Huckabee, Marco Rubio, and Scott Walker all representing different flavors of the conservative base. At present, Walker appears to be soaking up support from talk radio and is beginning to assemble an impressive campaign apparatus and donor base. Walker could quickly end the grassroots primary before it even starts, running as a grassroots, middle class conservative who also has a governing record with results.

As such, this race could easily boil down to Bush v. Walker by mid-2015, with all the donors and campaign gurus scooped up. In that event, no single gaffe is going to cause either candidate to take a dive; both will be the choice of their respective “wing” of the party, and, despite running on an almost identical message of conservative reform, each will be seen as representing a distinct future for the Republican Party and for the nation.

In short, it’s only February of 2015, but a Bush v. Walker primary may already be a done deal.

by @ 1:48 pm. Filed under Jeb Bush, Scott Walker

Poll Watch: Quinnipiac Pennsylvania 2016 Presidential Primary Surveys

  • Jeb Bush 12%
  • Chris Christie 11%
  • Mike Huckabee 10%
  • Ben Carson 8%
  • Rick Santorum 8%
  • Ted Cruz 6%
  • Scott Walker 6%
  • Marco Rubio 4%
  • John Kasich 3%
  • Rand Paul 3%
  • Bobby Jindal 2%
  • Rick Perry 1%

Survey of 342 registered Republicans was conducted January 22 – February 1, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 5.3 percentage points.

Quinnipiac Pennsylvania 2016 Democratic Primary Poll

  • Hillary Clinton 54%
  • Elizabeth Warren 12%
  • Joe Biden 10%
  • Martin O’Malley 2%
  • Bernie Sanders 2%
  • Jim Webb 1%

Survey of 392 registered Democrats was conducted January 22 – February 1, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 5 percentage points.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 12:15 pm. Filed under 2016, Democrats, Hillary Clinton, Jeb Bush, Poll Watch, Republican Party

Poll Watch: Quinnipiac Florida 2016 Presidential Primary Surveys

Quinnipiac Florida 2016 GOP Primary Poll

  • Jeb Bush 32% (21%) {27%} [25%] (22%)
  • Marco Rubio 15% (18%) {11%} [16%] (18%)
  • Mike Huckabee 11% (7%) {6%}
  • Scott Walker 9% (2%) {4%} [5%] (2%)
  • Ben Carson 8%
  • Ted Cruz 4% (10%) {6%} [9%] (12%)
  • Chris Christie 3% (6%) {7%} [9%] (14%)
  • Rand Paul 3% (8%) {14%} [11%] (9%)
  • Bobby Jindal 3% (1%) {1%} [3%] (3%)
  • Rick Santorum 3% (1%)
  • Rick Perry 1% (5%)
  • John Kasich 0% (1%)

Survey of 348 registered Republicans was conducted January 22 – February 1, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 5.3 percentage points.Results from the poll conducted July 17-21, 2014 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted April 23-28, 2014 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 22-27, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted November 12-17, 2013 are in parentheses.

Quinnipiac Florida 2016 Democratic Primary Poll

  • Hillary Clinton 61% (67%) {64%} [64%] (70%)
  • Joe Biden 11% (8%) {11%} [9%] (9%)
  • Elizabeth Warren 9% (8%) {6%} [5%] (4%)
  • Bernie Sanders 2%
  • Jim Webb 1%
  • Martin O’Malley 1% (0%) {1%} [1%] (1%)

Survey of 322 registered Democrats was conducted January 22 – February 1, 2015.  The margin of error is +/- 5.5 percentage points.Results from the poll conducted July 17-21, 2014 are in parentheses.Results from the poll conducted April 23-28, 2014 are in curly brackets.Results from the poll conducted January 22-27, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted November 12-17, 2013 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 11:45 am. Filed under 2016, Democrats, Hillary Clinton, Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, Poll Watch, Republican Party

Join The Community


Sponsored Ad

Meta

Recent Posts

Sponsored Ad

Categories

Archives

Search

Blogroll

Site Syndication

Main