February 25, 2015

Poll Watch: Quinnipiac Iowa 2016 Republican Caucus Survey

Quinnipiac Iowa 2016 GOP Caucus Poll

  • Scott Walker 25%
  • Rand Paul 13%
  • Ben Carson 11%
  • Mike Huckabee 11%
  • Jeb Bush 10%
  • Ted Cruz 5%
  • Chris Christie 4%
  • Marco Rubio 4%
  • Rick Santorum 4%
  • Rick Perry 3%
  • Bobby Jindal 2%
  • John Kasich 0%

Survey of 623 likely Iowa Republican caucus participants was conducted February 16-23, 2015.  The margin of error is +/- 3.9 percentage points. Gender: 60% Men; 40% Women. Political philosophy: 45% Very conservative; 28% Somewhat conservative; 25% Moderate/Liberal.

Thoughts:

  • Walker’s doing very well in Iowa. He nearly doubles his closest competitor and enjoys a double digit lead.
  • Carson continues to be a strong second tier candidate.
  • The second tier in Iowa currently is Paul, Carson, Huckabee, Bush. They are bunched up within 3 ppts of each other — the MOE.
  • Bush barely cracks double digits.
  • The “noise” candidates are Cruz, Christie, Rubio,  Santorum, Perry, and Jindal. They are in the lower single digits with only Cruz managing to crack 5 ppts.
  • I am continually struck at the poor showing of Rick Santorum. He finished second in 2012. He should, by all rights, be at least in the second tier, but he consistently polls at or near the bottom of every poll.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

February 18, 2015

Poll Watch: Gravis Marketing/Townhall (R) Iowa 2016 Republican Caucus Survey

Gravis Marketing/Townhall (R) Iowa 2016 GOP Caucus Poll

  • Scott Walker 24% (10%)
  • Rand Paul 10% (8%)
  • Jeb Bush 10% (14%)
  • Chris Christie 9% (5%)
  • Marco Rubio 7% (4%)
  • Mike Huckabee 7% (9%)
  • Rick Santorum 6%
  • Ben Carson 5%
  • Ted Cruz 4% (7%)
  • Carly Fiorina 3%
  • Unsure 15% (18%)

Survey of 343 registered Republican voters was conducted February 12-13, 2015. Results from the poll conducted January 5-7, 2015 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 4:00 am. Filed under 2016, Iowa Caucuses, Poll Watch, Scott Walker

February 17, 2015

Watch: NBC News/Marist Early State 2016 Democratic Primary/Caucus Surveys

NBC News/Marist Iowa 2016 Democratic Caucus Poll

  • Hillary Clinton 68% (70%)
  • Joe Biden 12% (20%)
  • Bernie Sanders 7%
  • Jim Webb 1%
  • Martin O’Malley 0%
  • Undecided 12% (10%)

Survey of 321 potential Democratic caucus-goers was conducted February 3-10, 2015.  The margin of error is +/- 5.5 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted July 7-13, 2014 are in parentheses.

NBC News/Marist New Hampshire 2016 Democratic Primary Poll

  • Hillary Clinton 69% (74%)
  • Bernie Sanders 13%
  • Joe Biden 8% (18%)
  • Jim Webb 2%
  • Martin O’Malley 0%
  • Undecided 7% (8%)

Survey of 309 potential Democratic primary voters was conducted February 3-10, 2015.  The margin of error is +/- 5.6 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted July 7-13, 2014 are in parentheses.

NBC News/Marist South Carolina 2016 Democratic Primary Poll

  • Hillary Clinton 65%
  • Joe Biden 20%
  • Bernie Sanders 3%
  • Martin O’Malley 2%
  • Jim Webb 2%
  • Undecided 8%

Survey of 352 potential Democratic primary voters was conducted February 3-10, 2015.  The margin of error is +/- 5.2 percentage points.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 4:00 am. Filed under 2016, Democrats, Hillary Clinton, Iowa Caucuses, New Hampshire Primary, Poll Watch

February 16, 2015

Poll Watch: NBC News/Marist Early State 2016 Republican Primary/Caucus Surveys

NBC News/Marist Iowa 2016 GOP Caucus Poll

  • Mike Huckabee 17%
  • Jeb Bush 16% (12%)
  • Scott Walker 15% (5%)
  • Chris Christie 9% (8%)
  • Rand Paul 7% (12%)
  • Marco Rubio 6% (7%)
  • Ben Carson 6%
  • Rick Santorum 5% (9%)
  • Rick Perry 4% (7%)
  • Ted Cruz 2% (7%)
  • Lindsey Graham 1%
  • Undecided 14% (20%)

Survey of 320 potential GOP caucus-goers was conducted February 3-10, 2015.  The margin of error is +/- 5.5 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted July 7-13, 2014 are in parentheses.

NBC News/Marist New Hampshire 2016 GOP Primary Poll

  • Jeb Bush 18% (10%)
  • Scott Walker 15% (6%)
  • Rand Paul 14% (14%)
  • Chris Christie 13% (13%)
  • Mike Huckabee 7%
  • Ben Carson 7%
  • Ted Cruz 6% (9%)
  • Marco Rubio 6% (7%)
  • Rick Perry 1% (5%)
  • Lindsey Graham 1%
  • Rick Santorum 1% (3%)
  • Undecided 13% (22%)

Survey of 381 potential GOP primary voters was conducted February 3-10, 2015.  The margin of error is +/- 5.0 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted July 7-13, 2014 are in parentheses.

NBC News/Marist South Carolina 2016 GOP Primary Poll

  • Lindsey Graham 17%
  • Jeb Bush 15%
  • Scott Walker 12%
  • Mike Huckabee 10%
  • Ben Carson 10%
  • Rand Paul 7%
  • Chris Christie 6%
  • Marco Rubio 4%
  • Rick Perry 4%
  • Rick Santorum 3%
  • Ted Cruz 1%
  • Undecided 11%

Survey of 450 potential GOP primary voters was conducted February 3-10, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 4.6 percentage points.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 4:00 am. Filed under 2016, Iowa Caucuses, Jeb Bush, Lindsey Graham, Mike Huckabee, Poll Watch, Republican Party

February 11, 2015

New Poll Shows Hillary’s Vulnerability to Elizabeth Warren

Second verse same as the first for Hillary come 2016? A new poll commissioned by YouGov for MoveOn.org’s PAC shows that Democratic primary/caucus voters are highly receptive to Elizabeth Warren’s candidacy when her positions/bio are compare with Hillary Clinton’s, so much so that Warren pulls ahead of Clinton in Iowa and New Hampshire after these voters made aware of the differences between the two contenders:

To know Elizabeth Warren is to want her to run for president, according to a YouGov survey of likely Democratic Iowa caucus goers and New Hampshire primary voters recently conducted on behalf of the Run Warren Run campaign.

The results show that, after likely caucus goers and primary voters learn about Elizabeth Warren’s biography and issue positions, not only do a stunning 79% say they want her to run, but, in both states, Warren ends up leading all other potential Democratic candidates in a head-to-head ballot question.

The full press release is here.

Hat-tip: Joe Hanna

February 5, 2015

Paul’s Potential Problem in Iowa

Rand Paul may have unexpected problems in Iowa. The National Journal reports:

DES MOINES—Rand Paul opens 2015 with an enviable base of support in Iowa from his father’s two presidential bids. But as he tries to broaden his appeal beyond the hard-core liberty activists who lifted Ron Paul to a third place finish in 2012, the senator is encountering an unlikely roadblock: his own campaign team.

One of Paul’s two top Iowa operatives, A.J. Spiker, is so deeply disliked and mistrusted by so much of the Iowa Republican establishment that party activists, officials, and strategists say he is damaging Paul’s credibility in the state.

Spiker was supposed to have been one of Rand Paul’s secret Iowa weapons in 2016: a Ron Paul acolyte-and-activist-turned-party-insider, a man who became the surprise chairman of the Republican Party of Iowa after Paul forces took control in 2012. When Doug Stafford, Paul’s chief strategist nationally, hired Spiker away from the party almost a year ago, Stafford declared, “His ability to work with the grassroots is unmatched.”

But Spiker’s tumultuous and controversial chairmanship—which ran from just after the 2012 Iowa caucuses until early 2014—so thoroughly alienated the Republican grassroots and establishment here that many view him as more of a liability for Paul than an asset.

This is a situation that has the possibility of repeating itself in a number of states. Iowa was not the only state in 2012 where the Paulites seized control of the GOP apparatus. It is an open question as to how much resentment is out there poisoning the waters for Rand Paul.

It all depends upon how nicely they played with the regulars. If they played nice, there shouldn’t be too much of a problem. If they didn’t, Rand will have to deal with the consequences of it.

by @ 11:58 am. Filed under Iowa Caucuses, Rand Paul

February 3, 2015

Huckabee’s Beyoncé Bombast Bombs in Iowa

Iowa is an important state for Mike Huckabee. If he can’t finish first here, or at least as the top SoCon vote-getter, it is hard to imagine how he’d ever recover.

The DMJ’s recent poll asked Iowans what they thought of Mike’s recent shots at Beyoncé and his criticisms of the Obamas for allowing their daughters to listen to her. The results are as follows:

In his recently published book, Mike Huckabee criticized the singer Beyoncé, calling her “mental poison.” Do you think Huckabee is mostly right about Beyoncé, or did he go too far?

Mostly Right Went Too Far Not Sure
Democrats 6 81 13
Republicans 40 38 22

Conducted Jan. 26 – 29. 401 are registered Iowa voters who say they definitely or probably will attend the 2016 Democratic caucuses, and 402 are registered Iowa voters who say they definitely or probably will attend the Republican caucuses. MOE is 4.9%

Well, that wasn’t too bad. It was neither a hit nor a miss with the Republican caucus goers. It was more a wash than anything. However check out what they think of Huckabee criticizing the Obamas’ parenting skills:

Mike Huckabee said the Obamas were guilty of bad parenting for allowing their daughters to listen to her music. Do you think Huckabee is mostly right about the Obamas, or did he go too far?

Mostly Right Went Too Far Not Sure
Democrats 2 95 3
Republicans 23 61 16

Ouch! That certainly didn’t help him. It went over like the proverbial lead balloon. Nearly three times as many Republican caucus goers thought he went too far as compared to those who thought he was mostly right.

Why does this image come to mind?

 

by @ 9:35 am. Filed under Iowa Caucuses, Mike Huckabee

February 2, 2015

Poll Watch: Loras College Iowa 2016 Republican Caucus Survey

Loras College Iowa 2016 GOP Caucus Poll

  • Mike Huckabee 14.4% (14.7%)
  • Jeb Bush 13.1% (10.7%)
  • Ben Carson 12.8%
  • Scott Walker 9.9% (4.7%)
  • Rand Paul 7.0% (8.5%)
  • Chris Christie 5.4% (8.0%)
  • Ted Cruz 5.4% (6.2%)
  • Marco Rubio 4.2% (4.7%)
  • Rick Santorum 3.8% (4.7%)
  • Rick Perry 3.2% (3.0%)
  • Bobby Jindal 1.6%
  • Carly Fiorina 1.3%
  • John Kasich 1.3% (0.7%)
  • Lindsey Graham 0.6%

Survey of 316 likely Iowa GOP caucus-goers was conducted January 21-24, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 5.5 percentage points. Click here to view crosstabs. Results from the poll conducted April 7-8, 2014 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 4:00 am. Filed under 2016, Iowa Caucuses, Mike Huckabee, Poll Watch, Republican Party

February 1, 2015

Poll Watch: Des Moines Register/Selzer & Co. Iowa 2016 Republican Caucus Survey

Des Moines Register/Selzer & Co. Iowa 2016 Republican Caucus Survey

  • Scott Walker 16%
  • Rand Paul 15%
  • Mike Huckabee 13%
  • Ben Carson 10%
  • Jeb Bush 9%
  • Ted Cruz 6%
  • Chris Christie 6%
  • Rick Santorum 5%
  • Marco Rubio 4%
  • Rick Perry 3%
  • Bobby Jindal 2%
  • Carly Fiorina 1%
  • John Kasich 1%
  • Donald Trump 1%
  • Mike Pence 0%
  • Uncomitted 3%

The poll of 402 likely Republican caucusgoers was conducted Jan. 26-29 by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines. The margin of error is plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.

Inside the numbers:

Presidential stage newcomer Scott Walker, the conservative reform pit bull who inspired death threats from the left, has become the one to watch in the race for the Republican nomination a year out from the Iowa caucuses.

At 15 percentage points, he leads a big, tightly packed field of potential contenders in a new Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Politics Iowa Poll of likely Republican caucusgoers. The caucuses are scheduled for Feb. 1, 2016.

The Wisconsin governor is also the No. 2 most popular choice for likely caucusgoers who want an establishment candidate, and he’s the No. 2 for those who want an anti-establishment candidate, the poll shows.

~snip~

The day after polling wrapped up, Romney announced he’s out of the competition. When the numbers in this poll are shuffled — by giving Romney’s votes to the contenders his supporters named as their second-choice pick — the five others in the top tier gain support.

Huckabee, a former TV commentator and two-term Arkansas governor, benefits the most, picking up 3 percentage points. The pecking order doesn’t shift, though.

~snip~

Last weekend, he made his big debut as a potential presidential contender, delivering a forceful speech at the Iowa Freedom Summit that elated the audience. Extensive national media coverage billed Walker as the best of show among nine potential candidates who spoke at the summit.

“He got a big bounce,” Selzer said.

Walker’s support has jumped 11 points since the last Iowa Poll. In October, only 4 percent of likely caucusgoers named Walker as their first choice for president.

by @ 12:00 am. Filed under 2016, Iowa Caucuses, Poll Watch, Republican Party

January 24, 2015

Iowa Freedom Summit Open Thread

The Iowa Freedom Summit is taking place in Des Moines today and features several 2016 GOP hopefuls. I will post links to the speeches as the become available as well as reactions. The Des Moines Register has a live feed of the event here. Consider this an open thread. Note: Longtime R4’16 reader Joe Hanna is contributing coverage to this event.

Speeches:

Scott Walker

Dr. Ben Carson

Donald Trump

Rick Santorum

Ted Cruz

Carly Fiorina

Mike Huckabee

Rick Perry

Chris Christie

UPDATE: National JournalScott Walker Scores Standing Ovation In Iowa – The Wisconsin governor proves he can connect with these important primary voters.”

Further updates beneath the fold.

by @ 3:08 pm. Filed under 2016, Iowa Caucuses

January 13, 2015

Poll Watch: Townhall/Gravis Marketing (R) Iowa 2016 Republican Caucuses Survey

Gravis Marketing (R) Iowa 2016 Republican Caucuses Survey

  • Mitt Romney 21%
  • Jeb Bush 14%
  • Scott Walker 10%
  • Mike Huckabee 9%
  • Rand Paul 8%
  • Ted Cruz 7%
  • Paul Ryan 5%
  • Chris Christie 5%
  • Marco Rubio 4%
  • Uncertain 18%

The Townhall/Gravis Marketing poll was conducted Jan. 5-7 among 404 registered Republican voters The poll carries an error rate of 3 percent.

by @ 11:36 am. Filed under 2016, Iowa Caucuses, Mitt Romney, Poll Watch

November 23, 2014

Poll Watch: Reuters/Ipsos Iowa 2016 Democratic Caucus Survey

Reuters/Ipsos Iowa 2016 Democratic Caucus Poll

  • Hillary Clinton 60%
  • Elizabeth Warren 17%
  • Joe Biden 4%
  • Andrew Cuomo 3%
  • Bernie Sanders 2%
  • Kirsten Gillibrand 1%
  • Martin O’Malley 1%

Online survey of 552 likely Democratic and Democratic-leaning Independent voters was conducted October 23-29, 2014.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 10:52 am. Filed under 2016, Hillary Clinton, Iowa Caucuses

November 18, 2014

Christie to Veto New Jersey Bill. Thinking of Iowa?

Chris Christie, the Governor of New Jersey has indicated that he’s considering vetoing a bill pending in his state’s legislature. The bill would ban the use of so-called “Gestation Cages” by hog farmers. They are used to confine pregnant sows during their gestation, hence the name.

The bill would have pretty much zero effect in New Jersey. There are only a small number of hog farmers in the state, and none of them use the cages. So it’s pretty much a meaningless bill — in New Jersey.

So why would the Governor of New Jersey want to veto a largely symbolic bill in his state? In a word, Iowa.

It turns out that gestation cages ARE a big deal in Iowa. There are tons of hog farmers in Iowa, and the use of the cages is quite common. One or two of the farmers expressed to Governor Christie when he visited the state recently that they really don’t see how anyone who’s never set foot on a hog farm could ever have an informed opinion on the cages. Christie agreed with them.

And which state has the first Presidential contest in the nation? Iowa, which makes it very important in the realm of Presidential politics.

And that’s how an essentially meaningless bill in New Jersey suddenly becomes controversial.

by @ 7:11 am. Filed under 2016, Chris Christie, Iowa Caucuses

November 16, 2014

Thing not All Rosy for Hillary in Iowa

Politico has an article written by Lee Rood, a columnist for the Des Moines Register. It is entitled, “Is Iowa Already Sick Of Hillary?”

DES MOINES, Iowa — If you’re a die-hard Democrat in New York hoping to overcome the disappointment that was Nov. 4, you’re worried.

But here in Iowa, where the first-in-the-nation caucuses are a mere 14 months away, some are breaking into a cold sweat.

Most party leaders here will assure you all conversations about the 2016 presidential nomination still begin and end with Hillary Clinton.

Crawford, who has led presidential campaigns in Iowa for almost three decades, acknowledges Clinton could easily stumble out of the gate if sometimes contrarian Iowans believe they are being force-fed an unlikeable candidate.

“Democrats are worried,” said Jack Hatch, the veteran Democratic state senator from Des Moines who sputtered in his bid to take on four-term Republican Gov. Terry Branstad. “I’m very worried.”

The Des Moines Register has long enjoyed a reputation par excellence of reflecting very accurately the state of politics in Iowa at any given moment. If they say Iowa’s Democrats are nervous about Hillary, they are nervous about Hillary. They are worried that the former First Lady may be open to a surprise ambush by an attractive upstart. That would throw the 2016 primary season into disarray and chaos. And given the drubbing the party received in 2014 and the deep unpopularity of their sitting President, that is exactly what they don’t need.

by @ 8:23 am. Filed under 2016, Hillary Clinton, Iowa Caucuses

November 9, 2014

Poll Watch: Fox News Iowa 2016 Democratic Caucus Survey

Fox News Iowa 2016 Democratic Caucus Poll

  • Hillary Clinton 62%
  • Elizabeth Warren 14%
  • Joe Biden 10%
  • Martin O’Malley 2%
  • Andrew Cuomo 2%
  • Other (vol.) 1%
  • None of the above (vol.) 2%
  • Don’t know (vol.) 6%

Survey of 352 likely Democratic voters was conducted October 28-30, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 5 percentage points.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 11:52 am. Filed under 2016, Hillary Clinton, Iowa Caucuses, Poll Watch

September 12, 2014

Poll Watch: CNN/ORC Iowa 2016 Republican Caucus Survey

CNN/ORC Iowa 2016 GOP Caucus Poll

  • Mike Huckabee 21%
  • Paul Ryan 12%
  • Rand Paul 7%
  • Chris Christie 6%
  • Jeb Bush 6%
  • Marco Rubio 5%
  • Rick Perry 5%
  • Scott Walker 5%
  • Bobby Jindal 4%
  • Ted Cruz 4%
  • Rick Santorum 3%

Survey of registered Republicans was conducted September 8-10, 2014.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 4:17 pm. Filed under 2016, Iowa Caucuses, Mike Huckabee, Poll Watch

August 28, 2014

Poll Watch: USA Today/Suffolk University Iowa 2016 Democratic Caucus Survey

USA Today/Suffolk University Iowa 2016 Democratic Caucus Poll 

  • Hillary Clinton 66.49% (62.96%)
  • Elizabeth Warren 9.95% (11.85%)
  • Joe Biden 7.85% (9.63%)
  • Andrew Cuomo 4.19% (0.74%)
  • Martin O’Malley 2.09%
  • Undecided 7.85% (11.85%)

Survey of 191 Democratic caucus-goers was conducted August 23-26, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 7.09 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted April 3-8, 2014 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 11:15 am. Filed under 2016, Hillary Clinton, Iowa Caucuses, Poll Watch

August 27, 2014

Poll Watch: USA Today/Suffolk University Iowa 2016 Republican Caucus Survey

USA Today/Suffolk University Iowa 2016 GOP Caucus Poll 

  • Mike Huckabee 13.11% (11.02%)
  • Chris Christie 10.68% (7.09%)
  • Rick Perry 8.74% (3.15%)
  • Jeb Bush 7.28 (10.24%)
  • Rand Paul 6.80% (10.24%)
  • Paul Ryan 6.31% (6.30%)
  • Rick Santorum 5.83% (5.51%)
  • Marco Rubio 5.34% (5.51%)
  • Ted Cruz 4.85% (9.45%)
  • Scott Walker 4.37% (5.51%)
  • Bobby Jindal 2.91% (3.15%)
  • Jon Huntsman 0.97%
  • John Kasich 0.97%
  • Other 4.37%
  • Undecided 16.99% (3.15%)

Survey of 206 GOP caucus-goers was conducted August 23-36, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 6.83 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted April 3-8, 2014 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 3:46 pm. Filed under 2016, Iowa Caucuses, Mike Huckabee, Poll Watch

July 21, 2014

Poll Watch: NBC News/Marist Iowa 2016 Democratic Caucus Survey

NBC News/Marist Iowa 2016 Democratic Caucus Poll 

  • Hillary Clinton 70%
  • Joe Biden 20%
  • Undecided 10%

Survey of 539 registered Democratic voters was conducted July 7-13, 2014.  The margin of error is +/- 4.2 percentage points.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 11:30 am. Filed under 2016, Hillary Clinton, Iowa Caucuses, Joe Biden, Poll Watch

Poll Watch: NBC News/Marist Iowa 2016 Republican Caucus Survey

NBC News/Marist Iowa 2016 GOP Caucus Poll 

  • Jeb Bush 12%
  • Rand Paul 12%
  • Paul Ryan 11%
  • Rick Santorum 9%
  • Chris Christie 8%
  • Rick Perry 7%
  • Ted Cruz 7%
  • Marco Rubio 7%
  • Scott Walker 5%
  • Bobby Jindal 1%
  • Undecided 20%

Survey of 558 registered Republican voters was conducted July 7-13, 2014.  The margin of error is +/- 4.1 percentage points.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 10:45 am. Filed under 2016, Iowa Caucuses, Jeb Bush, Poll Watch, Rand Paul

May 23, 2014

Poll Watch: PPP (D) Iowa 2016 Republican Caucus Survey

PPP (D) Iowa 2016 GOP Caucus Poll

  • Mike Huckabee 20% {17%} (16%{15%} [17%] (16%
  • Ted Cruz 15% {10%} [10%]
  • Jeb Bush 12% {13%} [14%] (14%) {11%} [8%] (10%)
  • Rand Paul 10% {14%} [18%] (15%) {5%} [11%] (9%)
  • Chris Christie 9% {10%} [16%] (12%) {12%} [16%] (15%)
  • Paul Ryan 8% {9%} [15%] (10%) {12%} [6%] (5%)
  • Scott Walker 6% {7%}
  • Marco Rubio 4% {3%} [11%] (16%) {12%} [10%] (7%)
  • Rick Santorum 3% [6%] {10%} [17%] (16%)
  • Someone else/Not sure 13% {11%} [7%] (7%) {8%} [8%] (10%)

Among Men

  • Ted Cruz 20% {10%} [13%]
  • Mike Huckabee 18% {19%} (14%) {13%} [13%] (11%)
  • Jeb Bush 11% {9%} [13%] (16%) {11%} [8%] (9%)
  • Rand Paul 11% {14%} [21%] (14%) {6%} [16%] (10%)
  • Chris Christie 10% {7%} [17%] (12%) {14%} [15%] (17%)
  • Scott Walker 6% {11%}
  • Paul Ryan 6% {8%} [11%] (10%) {7%} [8%] (3%)
  • Marco Rubio 5% {3%} [10%] (17%) {15%} [8%] (9%)
  • Rick Santorum 3% [5%] {10%} [17%] (19%)
  • Someone else/Not sure 10% {9%} [4%] (6%) {8%} [5%] (11%)

Among Women 

  • Mike Huckabee 23% {15%} (18%) {17%} [21%] (22%)
  • Jeb Bush 14% {17%} [15%] (12%) {11%} [8%] (12%)
  • Paul Ryan 11% {9%} [19%] (10%) {17%} [5%] (8%)
  • Ted Cruz 9% {9%} [7%]
  • Rand Paul 8% {14%} [14%] (16%) {5%} [5%] (8%)
  • Chris Christie 7% {15%} [16%] (11%) {10%} [16%] (13%)
  • Scott Walker 5% {1%}
  • Rick Santorum 4% [7%] {11%} [17%] (14%)
  • Marco Rubio 3% {3%} [12%] (16%) {10%} [11%] (4%)
  • Someone else/Not sure 17% {13%} [10%] (8%) {9%} [10%] (10%)

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net} 

  • Mike Huckabee 70% {63%} (64%) {68%} [68%] (69%) / 14% {19%} (22%) {16%} [20%] (12%) {+56%}
  • Sarah Palin 68% {61%} {60%} [60%] (70%) / 18% {21%} {26%} [26%] (17%) {+50%}
  • Rick Santorum 62% {44%} [57%] {64%} [65%] (68%) / 13% {21%} [15%] {18%} [22%] (17%) {+49%}
  • Rand Paul 60% {59%} [60%] (55%) {48%} [49%] (54%) / 12% {15%} [15%] (19%) {28%} [29%] (15%) {+48%}
  • Ted Cruz 58% {40%} [27%] / 11% {14%} [12%] {+47%}
  • Paul Ryan 60% {63%} [68%] (63%) {83%} [49%] (44%) / 15% {13%} [12%] (16%) {13%} [14%] (8%) {+45%}
  • Marco Rubio 51% {42%} [54%] (54%) {59%} [57%] (46%) / 10% {14%} [14%] (13%) {11%} [13%] (7%) {+41%}
  • Scott Walker 47% {39%} / 8% {12%} {+39%}
  • Rick Perry 53% {45%} (43%) / 16% {17%} (28%) {+37%}
  • Bobby Jindal 41% {36%} [42%] (43%) / 9% {10%} [14%] (11%) {+32%}
  • Ben Carson 37% / 6% {+31%}
  • Jeb Bush 48% {50%} [58%] (55%) {60%} [53%] (62%) / 25% {17%} [17%] (17%) {11%} [19%] (9%) {+23%}
  • John Kasich 18% {11%} / 10% {13%} {+8%}
  • Chris Christie 36% {38%} [45%] (36%) {55%} [57%] (50%) / 38% {35%} [27%] (33%) {21%} [17%] (16%) {-2%}
  • Scott Brown 12% / 17% {-5%}
  • Peter King 11% / 19% {-8%}
  • Donald Trump 30% {23%} / 40% {44%} {-10%}
  • Joe Scarborough 10% / 22% {-12%}

Survey of 303 Republican voters was conducted May 15-19, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 5.6 percentage points.  Political ideology: 42%{33%} [45%] (43%) {36%} [37%] (46%) Very conservative; 37% {39%} [33%] (31%) {39%} [40%] (35%) Somewhat conservative; 16%{21%} [16%] (21%) {19%} [16%] (14%) Moderate; 3% {5%} [5%] (5%) {3%} [6%] (3%) Somewhat liberal; 1% {2%} [1%] (1%) {3%} [1%] (2%) Very liberal.  Results from the poll conducted February 20-23, 2013 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 5-7, 2013 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 1-3, 2013 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted November 3-4, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 12-15, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 3-6, 2012 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 9:28 am. Filed under 2016, Iowa Caucuses, Mike Huckabee, Poll Watch

April 29, 2014

Poll Watch: Magellan Strategies (R) Iowa 2016 Republican Caucus Survey

Magellan Strategies (R) Iowa 2016 GOP Caucus Poll 

  • Mike Huckabee 17%
  • Jeb Bush 17%
  • Chris Christie 14%
  • Rand Paul 11%
  • Ted Cruz 10%
  • Scott Walker 8%
  • John Kasich 5%
  • Marco Rubio 2%
  • Undecided 16%

Survey of 331 likely GOP voters was conducted April 14-15, 2014 for The Liberty Foundation of America.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 3:01 pm. Filed under 2016, Iowa Caucuses, Jeb Bush, Mike Huckabee, Poll Watch

April 28, 2014

Poll Watch: The Daily Caller/Vox Populi Polling (R) Iowa 2016 Republican Caucus Survey

The Daily Caller/Vox Populi Polling (R) Iowa 2016 GOP Caucus Poll 

  • Mike Huckabee 20%
  • Paul Ryan 19%
  • Jeb Bush 18%
  • Ted Cruz 9%
  • Marco Rubio 9%
  • Rand Paul 8%
  • Chris Christie 7%
  • Scott Walker 6%
  • Joe Scarborough 4%

Survey of 168 registered Republican voters was conducted April 22-24, 2014.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 11:00 am. Filed under 2016, Iowa Caucuses, Mike Huckabee, Poll Watch

April 15, 2014

Poll Watch: Loras College Iowa 2016 Republican Caucus Survey

Loras College Iowa 2016 GOP Caucus Poll 

  • Mike Huckabee 14.7%
  • Jeb Bush 10.7%
  • Rand Paul 8.5%
  • Paul Ryan 8.3%
  • Chris Christie 8.0%
  • Ted Cruz 6.2%
  • Marco Rubio 4.7%
  • Rick Santorum 4.7%
  • Scott Walker 4.7%
  • Rick Perry 3.0%
  • John Kasich 0.7%
  • Other 0.7%
  • Undecided 23.8%

Survey of 600 likely Iowa GOP primary voters was conducted April 7-8, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 6:22 pm. Filed under 2016, Iowa Caucuses, Mike Huckabee, Poll Watch

April 10, 2014

Poll Watch: Suffolk University Iowa 2016 Democratic Caucus Survey

Suffolk University Iowa 2016 Democratic Caucus Poll 

  • Hillary Clinton 62.96%
  • Elizabeth Warren 11.85%
  • Joe Biden 9.63%
  • Mark Warner 1.48%
  • Andrew Cuomo 0.74%
  • Deval Patrick 0.74%
  • Cory Booker 0.00%
  • Undecided 11.85%

Survey of 135 Democratic caucus-goers was conducted April 3-8, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 8.4 percentage points.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 4:00 am. Filed under 2016, Iowa Caucuses, Poll Watch

April 9, 2014

Poll Watch: Suffolk University Iowa 2016 Republican Caucus Survey

Suffolk University Iowa 2016 GOP Caucus Poll 

  • Mike Huckabee 11.02%
  • Jeb Bush 10.24%
  • Rand Paul 10.24%
  • Ted Cruz 9.45%
  • Ben Carson 8.66%
  • Chris Christie 7.09%
  • Paul Ryan 6.30%
  • Condoleezza Rice 5.51%
  • Marco Rubio 5.51%
  • Scott Walker 5.51%
  • Sarah Palin 5.51%
  • Rick Santorum 5.51%
  • Rick Perry 3.15%
  • Bobby Jindal 3.15%
  • Undecided 3.15%

Survey of 127 GOP caucus-goers was conducted April 3-8, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 8.7 percentage points.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 2:20 pm. Filed under 2016, Iowa Caucuses, Mike Huckabee, Poll Watch

April 3, 2014

Poll Watch: WPA Opinion Research (R) Iowa 2016 Republican Caucus Survey

WPA Research (R) Iowa 2016 GOP Caucus Poll 

  • Mike Huckabee 14%
  • Rand Paul 10%
  • Scott Walker 8%
  • Paul Ryan 7%
  • Jeb Bush 7%
  • Ted Cruz 7%
  • Chris Christie 6%
  • Rick Santorum 5%
  • Rick Perry 3%
  • Marco Rubio 3%
  • Bobby Jindal 2%
  • Someone else 2%
  • Undecided 26%

Survey of 402 Republican voters was conducted March 30, 2014.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 11:36 am. Filed under 2016, Iowa Caucuses, Poll Watch

February 27, 2014

Poll Watch: PPP (D) Iowa 2016 Democratic Caucus Survey

PPP (D) Iowa 2016 Democratic Caucus Poll

Given the choices of Joe Biden, Cory Booker, Hillary Clinton, Andrew Cuomo, Kirsten Gillibrand, Martin O’Malley, Brian Schweitzer, Mark Warner, and Elizabeth Warren, who would you most like to see as the Democratic candidate for President in 2016?

  • Hillary Clinton 67% {71%} [68%] (58%) {60%} [62%] (44%)
  • Joe Biden 12% {12%} [21%] (17%) {18%} [14%] (13%)
  • Elizabeth Warren 5% {5%} [2%] (3%) {3%} [4%]
  • Mark Warner 3% {2%} [2%] (0%) {1%} [0%] (1%)
  • Andrew Cuomo 2% {1%} [2%] (6%) {3%} [4%] (7%)
  • Cory Booker 1% {1%} (3%)
  • Kirsten Gillibrand 0% {2%} [0%]
  • Martin O’Malley 0% {1%} [0%] (0%) {0%} [1%]
  • Brian Schweitzer 0% {0%} [0%] (1%) {1%} [2%] (1%)
  • Someone else/Not sure 10% {5%} [3%] (13%) {14%} [9%] (21%)

Given the choices of Joe Biden, Cory Booker, Andrew Cuomo, Kirsten Gillibrand, Martin O’Malley, Brian Schweitzer, Mark Warner, and Elizabeth Warren, who would you most like to see as the Democratic candidate for President in 2016?

  • Joe Biden 40% {51%} [58%] (40%) {36%} [28%]
  • Elizabeth Warren 13% {16%} [7%] (9%) {8%} [10%]
  • Andrew Cuomo 8% {9%} [13%] (14%) {14%} [14%]
  • Martin O’Malley 5% {2%} [0%] (4%) {2%} [0%]
  • Cory Booker 2% {6%}
  • Kirsten Gillibrand 2% {2%} [6%]
  • Mark Warner 2% {1%} [2%] (1%) {3%} [1%]
  • Brian Schweitzer 1% {0%} [1%] (1%) {4%} [2%]
  • Someone else/Not sure 28% {13%} [11%] (28%) {34%} [36%]

If neither Hillary Clinton nor Joe Biden ran for President in 2016, who would you most like to see as the Democratic nominee?

  • Elizabeth Warren 21% {20%} [17%] (13%) {11%} [13%]
  • Andrew Cuomo 11% {18%} [26%] (30%) {20%} [17%]
  • Cory Booker 8% {12%}
  • Martin O’Malley 6% {4%} [8%] (3%) {2%} [3%]
  • Kirsten Gillibrand 3% {7%} [5%]
  • Brian Schweitzer 2% {3%} [2%] (2%) {4%} [4%]
  • Mark Warner 2% {2%} [2%] (2%) {6%} [1%]
  • Someone else/Not sure 47% {33%} [37%] (46%) {53%} [47%]

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

  • Hillary Clinton 82% {87%} [90%] (86%) {90%} [88%] / 9% {7%} [5%] (11%) {6%} [6%] {+73%}
  • Joe Biden 66% {80%} [84%] (85%) {79%} [76%] / 13% {8%} [9%] (15%) {11%} [6%] {+53%}
  • Elizabeth Warren 43% {41%} [45%] (37%) {30%} [31%] / 8% {8%} [8%] (11%) {10%} [8%] {+35%}
  • Cory Booker 30% {27%} / 11% {9%} {+19%}
  • Andrew Cuomo 28% {34%} [35%] (38%) {26%} [26%] / 14% {15%} [13%] (16%) {19%} [17%] {+14%}
  • Kirsten Gillibrand 20% {22%} [14%] / 10% {11%} [6%] {+10%}
  • Mark Warner 19% {14%} [10%] (12%) {10%} [10%] / 11% {10%} [11%] (11%) {10%} [11%] {+8%}
  • Martin O’Malley 13% {12%} [8%] (9%) {4%} [6%] / 10% {6%} [6%] (13%) {8%} [7%] {+3%}
  • Brian Schweitzer 12% {10%} [9%] (12%) {5%} [7%] / 12% {5%} [5%] (7%) {10%} [9%] {0%}

Survey of 335 Democratic voters was conducted February 20-23, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 5.4 percentage points.  Political ideology: 41% {37%} [33%] (32%) {37%} [36%] (33%) Somewhat liberal; 28%{35%} [33%] (35%) {38%} [32%] (37%) Moderate; 20% {18%} [26%] (20%) {14%} [21%] (14%) Very liberal; 9% {7%} [6%] (8%) {8%} [8%] (11%) Somewhat conservative; 2% {2%} [2%] (5%) {3%} [4%] (4%) Very conservative.  Results from the poll conducted July 5-7, 2013 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 31 – February 3, 2013 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 3-4, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted July 12-15, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 3-6, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 15-17, 2011 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 4:05 pm. Filed under 2016, Hillary Clinton, Iowa Caucuses, Poll Watch

Poll Watch: PPP (D) Iowa 2016 Presidential Survey

PPP (D) Iowa 2016 Presidential Poll

  • Hillary Clinton (D) 46%
  • Mike Huckabee (R) 42%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 45% (50%)
  • Jeb Bush (R) 41% (36%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 47% (48%)
  • Rand Paul (R) 42% (37%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 45% (43%)
  • Chris Christie (R) 39% (36%)

Among Independents

  • Mike Huckabee (R) 48%  
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 32% 
  • Chris Christie (R) 39% (34%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 35% (29%)
  • Jeb Bush (R) 42% (32%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 36% (47%)
  • Rand Paul (R) 45% (32%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 37% (42%)

Among Moderates 

  • Hillary Clinton (D) 52%
  • Mike Huckabee (R) 28%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 53% (52%)
  • Chris Christie (R) 28% (25%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 51% (65%)
  • Jeb Bush (R) 28% (18%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 56% (61%)
  • Rand Paul (R) 27% (20%)

Among Men

  • Mike Huckabee (R) 50%  
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 39% 
  • Chris Christie (R) 44% (43%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 38% (38%)
  • Jeb Bush (R) 48% (42%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 37% (47%)
  • Rand Paul (R) 49% (42%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 41% (45%)

Among Women

  • Hillary Clinton (D) 53%
  • Mike Huckabee (R) 36%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 51% (47%)
  • Chris Christie (R) 33% (31%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 53% (53%)
  • Jeb Bush (R) 35% (31%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 53% (51%)
  • Rand Paul (R) 34% (33%)

Survey of 869 Iowa voters was conducted February 20-23, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 3.3 percentage points. Party ID: 37% (38%) Democrat; 31% (37%) Republican; 32% (25%) Independent/Other.  Political ideology: 30% (32%) Moderate; 24% (21%) Somewhat conservative; 22% (19%) Somewhat liberal14% (18%) Very conservative; 10% (9%) Very liberal. Results from the poll conducted July 5-7, 2013 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 1:11 pm. Filed under 2016, Iowa Caucuses, Poll Watch

Poll Watch: PPP (D) Iowa 2016 Republican Caucus Survey

PPP (D) Iowa 2016 GOP Caucus Poll

  • Mike Huckabee 17% (16%{15%} [17%] (16%
  • Rand Paul 14% [18%] (15%) {5%} [11%] (9%)
  • Jeb Bush 13% [14%] (14%) {11%} [8%] (10%)
  • Chris Christie 10% [16%] (12%) {12%} [16%] (15%)
  • Ted Cruz 10% [10%]
  • Paul Ryan 9% [15%] (10%) {12%} [6%] (5%)
  • Scott Walker 7%
  • Bobby Jindal 7% [2%] (3%)
  • Marco Rubio 3% [11%] (16%) {12%} [10%] (7%)
  • Someone else/Not sure 11% [7%] (7%) {8%} [8%] (10%)

Among Men

  • Mike Huckabee 19% (14%) {13%} [13%] (11%)
  • Rand Paul 14% [21%] (14%) {6%} [16%] (10%)
  • Scott Walker 11%
  • Ted Cruz 10% [13%]
  • Jeb Bush 9% [13%] (16%) {11%} [8%] (9%)
  • Bobby Jindal 9% [4%] (2%)
  • Paul Ryan 8% [11%] (10%) {7%} [8%] (3%)
  • Chris Christie 7% [17%] (12%) {14%} [15%] (17%)
  • Marco Rubio 3% [10%] (17%) {15%} [8%] (9%)
  • Someone else/Not sure 9% [4%] (6%) {8%} [5%] (11%)

Among Women

  • Jeb Bush 17% [15%] (12%) {11%} [8%] (12%)
  • Chris Christie 15% [16%] (11%) {10%} [16%] (13%)
  • Mike Huckabee 15% (18%) {17%} [21%] (22%)
  • Rand Paul 14% [14%] (16%) {5%} [5%] (8%)
  • Paul Ryan 9% [19%] (10%) {17%} [5%] (8%)
  • Ted Cruz 9% [7%]
  • Bobby Jindal 4% [0%] (5%)
  • Marco Rubio 3% [12%] (16%) {10%} [11%] (4%)
  • Scott Walker 1%
  • Someone else/Not sure 13% [10%] (8%) {9%} [10%] (10%)

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net} 

  • Paul Ryan 63% [68%] (63%) {83%} [49%] (44%) / 13% [12%] (16%) {13%} [14%] (8%) {+50%}
  • Mike Huckabee 63% (64%) {68%} [68%] (69%) / 19% (22%) {16%} [20%] (12%) {+44%}
  • Rand Paul 59% [60%] (55%) {48%} [49%] (54%) / 15% [15%] (19%) {28%} [29%] (15%) {+44%}
  • Sarah Palin 61% {60%} [60%] (70%) / 21% {26%} [26%] (17%) {+40%}
  • Jeb Bush 50% [58%] (55%) {60%} [53%] (62%) / 17% [17%] (17%) {11%} [19%] (9%) {+33%}
  • Rick Perry 45% (43%) / 17% (28%) {+28%}
  • Marco Rubio 42% [54%] (54%) {59%} [57%] (46%) / 14% [14%] (13%) {11%} [13%] (7%) {+28%}
  • Scott Walker 39% / 12% {+27%}
  • Ted Cruz 40% [27%] / 14% [12%] {+26%}
  • Bobby Jindal 36% [42%] (43%) / 10% [14%] (11%) {+26%}
  • Rick Santorum 44% [57%] {64%} [65%] (68%) / 21% [15%] {18%} [22%] (17%) {+23%}
  • Chris Christie 38% [45%] (36%) {55%} [57%] (50%) / 35% [27%] (33%) {21%} [17%] (16%) {+3%}
  • John Kasich 11% / 13% {-2%}
  • Donald Trump 23% / 44% {-21%}

Survey of 283 Republican voters was conducted February 20-23, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 5.8 percentage points.  Political ideology:39% [33%] (31%) {39%} [40%] (35%) Somewhat conservative; 33% [45%] (43%) {36%} [37%] (46%) Very conservative; 21% [16%](21%) {19%} [16%] (14%) Moderate; 5% [5%] (5%) {3%} [6%] (3%) Somewhat liberal; 2% [1%] (1%) {3%} [1%] (2%) Very liberal.  Results from the poll conducted July 5-7, 2013 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 1-3, 2013 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted November 3-4, 2012 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted July 12-15, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 3-6, 2012 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 11:13 am. Filed under 2016, Iowa Caucuses, Mike Huckabee, Poll Watch

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