January 29, 2015

Poll Watch: Fox Continued, The Democrats

The latest Fox Poll examines the race for the Democratic nomination, as well as the Republican. While not nearly as close as the Republican, it still has an interesting nugget or two to mine from it.

The Horse Race (390 Democrats):

  • Hillary Clinton 55%
  • Joe Biden 17%
  • Elizabeth Warren 12%
  • Andrew Cuomo 4%
  • Bernie Sanders 3%
  • Martin O’Malley 2%
  • Jim Webb 1%
  • Don’t Know 3%
  • None 2%
  • Other 0%

Hillary is the prohibitive leader, but the trend lines are interesting. If you plot them out using the same poll over the last year, this is what you get:

2016 Democratic Presidential Hopefuls Fox Poll 1-26-15

Notice the abrupt drop in Clinton’s numbers after remaining steady for nearly a year north of 60%. Yes, she is still nearly 40 ppts ahead of her closest competitor and no, one dip in the line does not a trend make, but it is interesting all the same. She went from being 52 ppts ahead to “only” 38 ppts. That’s a margin shrinkage of 14 ppts; more than a quarter of her lead evaporated in six weeks time.

January 28, 2015

Poll Watch: Rasmussen 2016 Democratic Nomination Survey

  • Hillary Clinton 59% (62%) {70%} [77%] (63%)
  • Elizabeth Warren 12% (17%)
  • Joe Biden 6% (7%) {10%} [11%] (12%)
  • Bernie Sanders 4%
  • Jim Webb 3% (2%)
  • Martin O’Malley 2% (2%)
  • Some other candidate 5%
  • Undecided 9%

Survey of 648 likely Democratic voters was conducted January 18-19, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted November 20-21, 2014 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted November 7-8, 2013 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted September 16-17, 2013 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted August 1-2, 2013 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 6:45 pm. Filed under 2016, Democrats, Hillary Clinton, Poll Watch

January 20, 2015

Free To Run

This is the time of presidential trial balloons. With a new president certain to be elected in 2016, hopefuls and aspirants in both major parties are testing the waters, rounding up staff members, and appealing to major donors. It is an old ritual with contemporary procedures and techniques. It is big-time American politics on a grand scale.

The establishments of both parties have a tendency to try to control this process. In the case of the Democrats, they have a frontrunner, Hillary Clinton, who is way out in front, with no one yet in sight who can wrest the nomination from her. She leads in all polls, not only against potential Democratic rivals, but also against every Republican opponent. The Democratic establishment therefore would like to end this contest early, and prepare for the general election. When Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren began making competitive waves from Mrs. Clinton’s left, the liberal establishment got nervous, and started trying to warn Mrs. Warren off the contest. Their nervousness was increased by the fact that Mrs. Clinton’s initial campaign roll-out has been notably less than successful. There are several other Democratic wannabes, including Vice President Joe Biden, former Montana Governor Brian Schweitzer, former Virginia Senator James Webb and Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders. Should Mrs. Clinton falter or pull out, other big names in the party could enter, including notably New York Governor Andrew Cuomo.

On the Republican side, there is no true frontrunner, but there is an establishment favorite, former Florida Governor Jeb Bush. Another major candidate would be New Jersey Governor Chris Christie. Also potentially serious candidates include Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker, Ohio Governor John Kasich, Indiana Governor Mike Pence, Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal, Kentucky Senator Rand Paul, Texas Senator Ted Cruz, New Mexico Governor Susana Martinez, former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee, former Texas Governor Rick Perry and former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum. Less serious, there are a number of hopefuls who might take a crack at the nomination. (Abraham Lincoln was at the bottom of the list of nine GOP candidates as late as February, 1860, and look what happened only six months later when he won his nomination.)

Then there is Mitt Romney. In 2008, he was runner-up to John McCain in the GOP nominating contest, and in 2012, he was the Republican presidential nominee. He lost to Barack Obama that year by a relatively small margin, but as it turns out, most of what he said on the campaign turned out be right, or rather more right, than what Mr. Obama said. Nevertheless, the GOP establishment does not want Mitt Romney to run in 2016, and are saying so out loud.

It so happens I agree with those who say Mitt Romney is not likely to be the best Republican nominee in 2016, but I do disagree that he should be told not to run. I don’t agree with much that Elizabeth Warren has been saying, but I also don’t think she should be told not to run.

After all, it’s a free country, isn’t it?

Some folks in both parties fear open contests with many candidates. Republicans particularly point to the large field and numerous debates in 2012 as having hurt their ticket in November. I disagree with that strongly. There were perhaps too many debates (27), but the process, in my opinion, made Mr. Romney a better and stronger candidate. Newt Gingrich, for example, was by far the best debater in 2012; Mr. Romney held his own in the debates, but he had to face someone who was formidable early in the process. Romney did not lose because of the number of GOP rivals he had or the debates. He lost because of the successful (and unanswered) personal attacks on him made by the Democrats early and often, and because the Democrats had a much superior get-out-the-vote effort. (That the GOP did not have a better one, truth be told, was Mr. Romney’s responsibility.)

The nation and its political process is best served, as I see it, by open and competitive nomination contests. The number of candidates does not really matter because the process is designed to weed out those who cannot win very early.

So I say to Elizabeth Warren, Mitt Romney, and anyone else who thinks they should and can be president: Be free to run!

————————————————————————————————–
Copyright (c) 2015 by Barry Casselman. All rights reserved.

January 19, 2015

Poll Watch: YouGov/Economist 2016 National Democratic Primary

YouGov/Economist 2016 National Democratic Primary

  • Hillary Clinton 61%
  • Elizabeth Warren 17%
  • Joe Biden 7%
  • Bernie Sanders 3%
  • Jim Webb 2%
  • Brian Schweitzer 1%
  • Martin O’Malley 0%
  • Other 0%
  • Undecided 9%

Asked of 353 Democratic registered voters 1/10-1/12.

by @ 4:00 am. Filed under Democrats, Hillary Clinton, Poll Watch

January 14, 2015

Reading the Democratic Tea Leaves

Or, the incredible shrinking Democratic primary

While the Republican world is going crazy over the possibility of an impending Jeb/Mitt battle royale, there is behind-the-scenes movement across the aisle as the Democratic field begins to take shape as well.

Other than Hillary Clinton, the major names tossed out for the Democrats this election cycle include: Mark Warner, Brian Schweitzer, Martin O’Malley, Howard Dean, Bernie Sanders, Andrew Cuomo, Elizabeth Warren, and, of course, Joe Biden. Jim Webb has already formed an exploratory committee, so he’s at least got one toe officially in the water — but it remains to be seen if his exploring will lead him down the route of fellow moderates Evan Bayh and Mark Warner in 2008, or if he will actually jump in the race.

So what of the rest of the crowd? Elizabeth Warren has been the darling of the grassroot liberal wing of the party for years. They keep trying to coax her into the race, and she keeps saying no — that is, she keeps saying, “I am not running for President.” After every news station and liberal blogger began noticing she always phrased her response in the present tense (as opposed to the future tense of, “I will not run for President”), the far left held out hope she was leaving the door open to enter the race at some point down the road. Until this morning, that is. Senator Warren dashed liberals’ hopes with an interview this morning where she finally and firmly ruled out running in 2016.

Meanwhile, fellow liberal darling Howard Dean was very vocal about running in 2016 for most of last year. Just a couple weeks ago, however, he published an op-ed over at Politico announcing he would not run — and surprisingly endorsed Hillary Clinton.

With Warren and Dean out, where does that leave the liberal wing of the party? Bernie Sanders will almost certainly run, telling folks he will make his final decision by March. The only thing left for him to decide, it seems, is if he’ll run in the Democratic primaries or run on a third party (socialist) ticket.

Difficult as it is to believe, the netroots activist wing of the party is left with only the possibility of a longshot socialist Senator from Vermont to champion. With the other big names bowing out of the contest, this of course leaves the door wide open for none other than Joe Biden to represent the liberal Democrats. Biden has been remarkably quiet on his 2016 plans as of late. There are some who felt he would be supporting an Elizabeth Warren run, but now that she won’t be entering the fray, crazy Uncle Joe might be plotting his own potential path to winning his boss’ seat in the Oval Office. If Biden decides not to run, the resulting vacuum will likely attract a currently off-the-radar candidate who can play to that wing of the party.

On the other end of the spectrum, Hillary’s specter still looms large. Mark Warner has wanted to be President his entire life, and early rumors indicated he would take the opportunity in 2016 that he passed up eight years ago. However, insiders are now indicating that Warner will not run for President this time around, either — and that he is angling to be Hillary’s Vice President.

Governor Andrew Cuomo, another DLC’er who was looking at running, has reportedly told his inner circle he won’t be getting in the race… in 2016. He believes Hillary Clinton is running and will win the nomination. Following that prediction, Cuomo is actually now allegedly laying the groundwork for an ambitious six-year plan to run for President in 2020 after Hillary loses. Democratic Party insiders call it a “well-thought-out, under-the-radar strategy” to position himself for the 2020 election — a plan that sounds like something straight out of House of Cards on Netflix.

For what it’s worth, Ed Rendell and Cory Booker have also ruled out running this time around. With Warren and Dean opting out on the left, and Warner, Cuomo, Rendell, and Booker opting out on the right, this is suddenly looking like an incredibly small field for the Democrats. So who’s left to challenge Hillary other than Bernie Sanders and Joe Biden?

Enter Martin O’Malley and Brian Schweitzer. Both are incredibly interesting figures who have nothing to lose by running, and both have said recently they are still interested. Both are from the moderate side of the Democratic Party, but both have a populist streak that provides crossover appeal to the liberals as well. And even though both have backgrounds in the DLC themselves, they’ve both proven to have no qualms attacking Hillary Clinton. Hillary’s biggest threat will be from these two men.

That is, of course, if Hillary decides to run. If she decides not to (which she may well do), this shrunken field of three or four candidates suddenly gets thrown into chaos. Warner, Cuomo, Rendell, and many others will rethink their decisions not to run. (When Rendell was asked whether he would run if Hillary didn’t, his response was telling: “Why not?”) Until Hillary makes that decision, though, it certainly appears she’s successfully clearing the field of most of her other potential challengers.

January 9, 2015

Poll Watch: Rutgers-Eagleton New Jersey 2016 Democratic Primary Survey

Rutgers-Eagleton New Jersey 2016 Democratic Primary Poll

The 2016 presidential election is far away, but thinking ahead to the Democratic primary for president, who would be your first choice for the Democratic candidate? Just tell me a name.

  • Hillary Clinton 54%
  • Elizabeth Warren 6%
  • Cory Booker 2%
  • Joe Biden 1%
  • Martin O’Malley 1%
  • Other 3%
  • Don’t know 34%

Survey of 280 registered Democrats and Democratic-leaning Independents was conducted December 3-10, 2014.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 10:07 am. Filed under 2016, Democrats, Elizabeth Warren, Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden, Martin O'Malley, Poll Watch

January 8, 2015

Poll Watch: Rasmussen Generic Congressional Ballot Survey

Rasmussen Generic Congressional Ballot Survey

  • Republicans 40% 39% 40% 40% 39% 41% 43%
  • Democrats 38% 39% 39% 37% 40% 40% 39%

The national telephone survey of 2,800 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports from December 29-30, 2014 and January 2-4, 2015. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

by @ 12:30 am. Filed under 2016, Democrats, Poll Watch, Republican Party

December 31, 2014

Poll Watch: CNN/ORC 2016 Democratic Nomination Survey

CNN/ORC 2016 Democratic Nomination Poll

  • Hillary Clinton 66% [65%] (67%) {64%} [63%] (65%)
  • Elizabeth Warren 9% [10%] (10%) [7%] (7%)
  • Joe Biden 8% [9%] (8%) {13%} [12%] (10%)
  • Bernie Sanders 3% [5%]
  • Andrew Cuomo 1% [1%] (4%) {4%} [5%] (6%)
  • Martin O’Malley 1% [0%] (2%) {4%} [2%] (2%)
  • Jim Webb 1% [1%]
  • Deval Patrick 0% [1%]

Survey of 469 Democrats and Democratic-leaning Independents was conducted December 18-21, 2014.  The margin of error is +/- 4.5 percentage points. Party ID: 64% [63%] (67%) Democrat; 36% [37%] (33%) Independent. Results from the poll conducted November 21-23, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted July 18-20, 2014 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted March 7-9, 2014 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 18-20, 2013 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 6-8, 2013 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

December 22, 2014

Poll Watch: Fox News 2016 Democratic Nomination Survey

Fox News 2016 Democratic Nomination Poll

  • Hillary Clinton 62% {64%} [69%] (68%)
  • Elizabeth Warren 12% {9%} [6%] (7%)
  • Joe Biden 10% {12%} [14%] (12%)
  • Bernie Sanders 3%
  • Andrew Cuomo 2% {5%} [2%] (4%)
  • Martin O’Malley 1% {1%} [1%] (1%)
  • Jim Webb 1%

National survey of 409 registered Democrats was conducted December 7-9, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 5 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted July 20-22, 2014 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 13-15, 2014 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted December 14-16, 2013 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

December 17, 2014

Poll Watch: Rasmussen Generic Congressional Ballot Survey

Rasmussen Generic Congressional Ballot Survey

  • Republicans 40% 39% 41 % 43%
  • Democrats 37% 40% 40% 39%

The national telephone survey of 3,500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports from December 8-14, 2014. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

by @ 10:08 am. Filed under 2016, Democrats, Poll Watch, Republican Party

December 9, 2014

Poll Watch: Rasmussen Generic Congressional Ballot Survey

Rasmussen Generic Congressional Ballot Survey

  • Democrats 40% 40% 39%
  • Republicans 39% 41 % 43%

The national telephone survey of 3,500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports from December 1-7, 2014. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

by @ 10:55 am. Filed under 2016, Democrats, Poll Watch, Republican Party

December 4, 2014

The Democrats, On the Other Hand, DO Have An Alternate Front Runner

The Democrats’ undisputed front runner is Hillary Clinton by a longshot:

CNN/ORC November 23

  • Hillary Clinton: 65%
  • Elizabeth Warren: 10%
  • Joe Biden: 9%
  • Bernie Sanders: 5%
  • Andrew Cuomo: 1%
  • Deval Patrick: 1%
  • Jim Webb: 1%
  • Martin O’Malley: 0%
  • Other: 4%
  • None: 3%
  • Don’t Know: 1%

457 Democrats polled for a MOE of +/1 4.5%

Almost 2 out of every 3 Democrats support the former First Lady to be their nominee in 2016. That is easily a prohibitive position.

If you take away Clinton, they still have a definite front runner:

  • Biden: 41%
  • Warren: 20%
  • Cuomo: 7%
  • Sanders: 7%
  • O’Malley: 4%
  • Webb: 3%
  • Patrick: 2%
  • Other: 5%
  • None: 8%
  • Don’t Know: 4%

Without Hillary, Joe Biden gets the lion’s share of her votes and ends up with more than 20 ppts on his closest rival, Elizabeth Warren. He more than doubles her score.

It is ironic that the leading candidates for the Democratic Presidential nomination are politicians past retirement age. They are supposed to be the party of the young and the Republicans were supposed to be the party of the old, geriatric set. Yet Hillary (67) and Biden (72) are older than any of the top Republican candidates Bush (61), Christie (52), Carson (63), and Paul (51). Only our soon-to-be-forgotten front runner, Mitt Romney (67) is as old or older than the two Democratic front runners.

 

December 2, 2014

Poll Watch: Gravis Marketing (R) Florida 2016 Democratic Primary Survey

Gravis Marketing (R) Florida 2016 Democratic Primary Poll

  • Hillary Clinton 51%
  • Elizabeth Warren 18%
  • Joe Biden 12%
  • Martin O’Malley 4%
  • Andrew Cuomo 2%
  • Unsure 13%

Survey of 694 Democratic voters was conducted November 19-20, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 2:41 pm. Filed under 2016, Andrew Cuomo, Democrats, Elizabeth Warren, Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden, Martin O'Malley

November 28, 2014

Poll Watch: Quinnipiac 2016 Democratic Nomination Survey

  • Hillary Clinton 57% [58%] (65%) {66%} [61%] (65%)
  • Elizabeth Warren 13% [11%] (7%) {7%} [7%]
  • Joe Biden 9% [9%] (8%) {8%} [11%] (13%)
  • Bernie Sanders 4%
  • Martin O’Malley 1% [1%] (1%) {0%} [0%] (1%)
  • Jim Webb 1%
  • Don’t know 14% [15%] (13%) {12%} [15%] (14%)

National survey of 610 registered Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters was conducted November 18-23, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted June 24-30, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted January 15-19, 2014 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conductedDecember 3-9, 2013 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 23-29, 2013 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 25-29, 2013 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 12:50 pm. Filed under 2016, Democrats, Hillary Clinton, Poll Watch

November 20, 2014

Jim Webb Forms an Exploratory Committee

Jim Webb has formed an Exploratory Committee (thanks Ben Christie for the tip)

Jim Webb, the former Democratic U.S. senator from Virginia, said he launched a committee to explore running for president in 2016, according to a 14-minute video he sent to supporters by email just before midnight on Wednesday.

Webb gave no notice he would announce the committee this week. He has only said in recent months that he is considering a presidential run.

The video was sent in an email to subscribers of Webb’s website. The message linked to another website, headlined, the Webb 2016 Exploratory Committee.

The first 2016 shoe has dropped.

by @ 8:54 am. Filed under 2016, Democrats, Jim Webb

November 19, 2014

Here’s a Thought. Hillary Might Be the Youngest Democrat in the 2016 Race

A number of alternatives to Hillary have been put forward. Among them are:

  • California Governor Jerry Brown
  • Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders
  • Vice President Joe Biden
  • Virginia Senator Jim Webb

What do they have in common? One thing is that they are all older than Hillary. In 2016 Brown will be 78, Sanders 75, Biden 73, and Webb 70. Hillary will be 69.

Yes, we have heard Elizabeth Warren’s name batted about as a possible alternative to Mrs. Clinton. She would be younger than our former First Lady, but not by much. Senator Warren would be 67 in 2016.

And this is the party of the youth?

As an aside, Harry Reid will be 77 and Nancy Pelosi will be 76 in 2016.

 

by @ 7:37 am. Filed under 2016, Democrats, Elizabeth Warren, Hillary Clinton, Jerry Brown, Joe Biden

November 17, 2014

Democrats Toss Out Some Possible Alternatives to Hillary

ABC News had a recent panel discussion of possible alternatives to Hillary:

The names they threw out were:

  • Senator Elizabeth Warren D-MA
  • Senator Bernie Sanders D-VT
  • Vice President Joe Biden
  • Senator Al Franken D-MN

Jonathan Karl pointed out that Warren used to say, “No, no, no, no, no”, when asked about running for President. Now she is simply saying, “I’m not running”.

Donna Brazile, who mentioned Franken, did not recommend him in this clip, but says that she is starting to get tweets about him. However, she herself gets in on the act:

The nursery rhyme comes to mind:

Old Mother Hubbard
Went to her cupboard
To fetch her poor dog a bone.

But when she got there,
the cupboard was bare,
and so the poor dog got none.

For the Democrats, after Hillary, the cupboard truly appears bare. The pickin’s are mighty slim.

by @ 2:48 pm. Filed under 2016, Democrats, Elizabeth Warren, Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden

And So Begins the Race for 2016: Democratic Edition

The conventional wisdom is that 2016 will be the Year of Hillary — that she will easily dispatch the token opposition in the Democratic primaries, and that she will just as easily cruise to becoming the 45th president of the United States. So far, polls show that assumption to be true. But it is two years before the election right now, and in that time a lot can and will go wrong – and right – for candidates on both sides of the ring. The die has not yet been cast; after all, everyone thought 2008 would be the Year of Hillary as well.

There are two huge questions looming over the Democratic primary at this moment: will Hillary run, and if she does, can she win? At first blush, these seem like absurd questions. Of course she will run — the Clintons are power hungry and will not give up a golden opportunity like this to occupy the Oval Office again. And of course she will win — all the polls show her demolishing any and all opponents on both sides of the aisle by double digits. But what if we took a step back and questioned those assumptions for a moment?

Uncertain Certainties

I’ve predicted ever since 2008 that Hillary Clinton will not run for president again. How could she pass up such a perfect opportunity? Because it might not be so perfect after all, for all the following reasons:

  1. Age. Consider: on election day 2016, Hillary Clinton will be 69 years old. If elected, she will tie Ronald Reagan for the oldest president in the history of the country. Of course, that would be a Hillary supporter’s rejoinder: so what if she’s that old – so was Reagan. However, Reagan didn’t suffer major health concerns before running like Hillary’s fainting spells and head injury, and Reagan’s age did become an issue as early Alzheimer’s sadly set in during his waning years in the White House and dementia became more and more apparent. More to the point, not only will the American people need to decide if we want another septuagenarian in the White House, Clinton will have to decide herself if she (and Bill, who has had several heart surgeries now) is healthy enough to run — and if this is how she truly desires to spend her twilight years. Which leads us to the second point.
  2. Family. The Clintons have a new grandbaby, and while the hardened political cynics were quick to point out how a baby is a perfect “political prop,” the opposite could be just as true. A desire to spend time with their new grandchild is certainly part of the equation Clinton is processing.
  3. Campaigning. As in, Hillary Clinton is just no good at it. In this, she shares many similarities with Rudy Giuliani on the other side of the aisle. In 2007, when Giuliani was the larger-than-life NYC Mayor who helped rebuild after 9/11, he was skyrocketing and leading all the polls. As soon as he hit the road and actually started campaigning, his numbers fell to earth. The same could be said of Hillary Clinton: when people think of her in general terms, they get warm fuzzies remembering the 90s when Bill was president and thinking about the possibility of having a female president, among other things. Then Hillary shows up and starts talking, and those memories are shattered, replaced by a much grittier reality. This was never more on display than the 2008 primaries, and to a lesser extent during her book tour earlier this year. Hillary has always lacked the political acumen of her husband, and she realizes it. Which takes us to point four.
  4. Losing. Yes, the polls show Clinton ahead of her closest Democratic competitor by 50 or 60 points right now. There is still a very real possibility that she could lose if she chooses to run. The word from insiders is this is one of the major variables the Clintons are considering as they weigh whether or not to run. If Hillary runs and loses a second time, it will tarnish their legacy as a power couple in Washington. They risk damaging the Clinton brand, which would damage the work they are doing through the Clinton Foundation and the Clinton Global Initiative, as well as damaging prospects of high dollar speaking events.
  5. Obama. Hillary Clinton served the party faithfully by accepting Obama’s invitation to be his Secretary of State. What was supposed to be a goodwill gesture to help heal the party — and yes, to further her own potential future — turned out to be harmful instead. Russia, Syria, Iran, the Arab Spring, Iraq, ISIS, Benghazi… oh, and did we mention Russia? Hillary’s term as Secretary of State was nothing but one unmitigated failure after another. Is there a single foreign policy success Clinton oversaw while in the Obama administration? To be fair, many of these were not her fault: she was serving a feckless President who lacked the courage or the will to advance a strong foreign policy, and even when she attempted to do what was right (see: Syria response) her comments were walked back and overridden before she was back stateside. In 2008, Hillary Clinton had the glow of the 90s as well as the mini trail of success she had paved as a United States Senator; in 2016 she will have the stink of five years of failed foreign policy following her which open up brand new lines of attack should she run. Understanding that — and how it plays into point four above — may be enough to keep her out of the race.

Filling the Void

So if Hillary Clinton ends up not running, who will step in to fill the void? This is where the schism in the Democratic Party rears its ugly head, mirroring the struggle that will occur with the Republicans as well.

I’ve written about the DLC and the New Democrats several times before here at Race, but the backstory bears repeating because it will play a key role in what’s going to happen in the 2016 race.

After Jimmy Carter’s dismal failed term and Ronald Reagan’s landslide victory in 1980, the Democrats nominated ultra-liberal Walter Mondale to face Reagan in 1984. They watched, panic-stricken, as Reagan won an even larger landslide victory, and a rumbling began. Deciding that they were done playing to the fringe elements of their party, powerful factions of Democrats veered toward centrist moderation in an attempt to rebrand themselves and sell themselves to the American people anew.

These moderate factions came together to found the Democratic Leadership Council in 1985 in order to promote a more centrist approach to Democratic governance. They threw their weight behind moderate Senator Gary Hart of Colorado (runner-up to Mondale four years earlier) in the 1988 primaries, only to see their hopes dashed by his extramarital affairs. The Democrats ended up with yet another ultra-liberal nominee in Michael Dukakis and lost in yet another landslide.

Four years later, the DLC finally found success on the Presidential level when DLC’er Bill Clinton won the White House. Clinton ran a campaign (and ostensibly an administration) based on the new “third way” of centrism in national politics, rejecting the liberalism that Democrats had embodied for the previous three decades. And after Clinton became the first Democratic President to be re-elected since FDR, people really sat up and took notice of the DLC and their so-called “New Democrats”.

After eight years of George Bush in the White House, the 2008 election featured a great opportunity for the DLC to regain their power and prominence with their candidate of choice (and former DLC Chair) Hillary Clinton. Instead, Hillary lost to Barack Obama — who was not a member of the DLC and in fact went out of his way on multiple occasions to say he wasn’t aligned with or endorsed by the DLC. In fact, Obama probably ran the most anti-DLC campaign since Howard Dean infamously declared that the DLC “represented the Republican wing of the Democratic Party” in 2003.

It didn’t take long, despite shallow overtures of peace made by Obama, for the DLC to become disillusioned and angry with Obama and the liberal wing of Democratic politics he represented. The DLC shuttered their doors in 2009 when they couldn’t raise enough money to stay afloat, thanks to the perception (encouraged by Obama) that they were not an ally of the White House. Ever since, they’ve been harboring resentment and longing for the opportunity to put one of their own in power once again.

In This Corner…

That’s where it starts mattering in our story. The DLC (or, rather, the former members of the now-dissolved DLC) has an incredibly deep bench for the 2016 primaries. All they have to do is figure out who to coronate as their champion (or choose two or three of them for strategic purposes, to help drown out the din of the liberal wing of the party). Moderate Democrats like Andrew Cuomo, Martin O’Malley, Brian Schweitzer, Jim Webb, and Mark Warner all make the list of potential 2016 hopefuls, and all are former members of the DLC. O’Malley and Warner may have been damaged a little by the results of the midterm elections, but by next year when the campaign begins that will be forgotten history.

This is one of the reasons I think Hillary will find it easier than some think to make the decision not to run. Bill and Hillary own the Democratic Party establishment (much in the same way Bush/Romney own the Republican establishment) because of their leadership of the DLC. Both have served as DLC chairs and have worked tirelessly to advance DLC causes. So then, here is Hillary’s out: she and Bill endorse one of the fellow DLC’ers in the 2016 race and work to get them elected. They work against the liberal wing of the party which burned them so badly for the past eight years, and exact revenge while rebranding the Democrat brand at the same time. Meanwhile, they never risk tarnishing their own legacy in the process. It’s a win-win for the Clintons.

On the other side of the schism sit all the liberal, grassroots candidates. This group will be comprised of folks like Elizabeth Warren, Howard Dean (yes, he says he is eyeing another run), and Bernie Sanders (actual, literal Socialist) — and probably a surprise or two, like a Dennis Kucinich-type character.

So who will win? After eight years of an Obama presidency which has produced low approval numbers and a desire for change, the DLC candidates will be most likely to succeed. Among them, two stand out as top tier: Andrew Cuomo and Martin O’Malley. Cuomo has made a name for himself in New York and has managed to upset the liberal wing of his party while maintaining a decent approval rating among Republicans — a magical feat, to be sure, in a state like New York. And O’Malley is widely known as the hardest working potential candidate, willing to work long hours and embrace the daily grind in order to build a winning campaign structure. He did more fundraisers and campaign stops for more candidates than anybody on either side of the aisle during the midterms, which is impressive considering he did so in an unofficial capacity. But his goal went far beyond helping candidates win (which obviously didn’t happen) — his goal was to create and garner goodwill among a nationwide network of supporters that would be in place when he launches his campaign next year.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see the major DLC players sit back and collaborate on which of them will enter the race, much like the Republican establishment is doing on the other side of the aisle. So far, with the potential exception of Elizabeth Warren, the DLC wing doesn’t have any serious competition for the nomination, which could make the general election very interesting – and a little tougher for the GOP.

by @ 4:00 am. Filed under 2016, Barack Obama, Democrats, Elizabeth Warren, Hillary Clinton, Martin O'Malley

November 13, 2014

Hey Hillary! Watch Out for Liz on Your Left!

A couple of interesting stories are running in Politico today.

The first one deals with a meeting with major liberal donors:

Vice President Joe Biden will join Sen. Elizabeth Warren and other leading progressives in addressing a closed-door gathering of elite liberal donors — a roster of speakers that notably doesn’t include Hillary Clinton.

The annual winter meeting of the Democracy Alliance, a group of funders of liberal causes, isn’t a presidential cattle call. But speculation about the 2016 Democratic presidential race looms over the four-day gathering, which started Wednesday at Washington’s Mandarin Oriental hotel. Last year’s meeting was a lovefest for Warren, whose speech fired up the crowd. This year’s program, reviewed by POLITICO, includes sessions on numerous progressive causes — including fighting climate change, reducing the role of money in politics and more rigorously regulating Wall Street — on which Warren is seen as more liberal than Clinton.

A major meeting with liberal donors that deliberately snubs Hillary Clinton? That can’t be good for the aura of inevitability she has been trying  to culture. But whom did they invite instead? Why Elizabeth Warren of course.

Which brings up the next Poltico story today:

Senate Democrats are enlisting progressive firebrand Elizabeth Warren to be a member of their leadership team, likely to serve as a liaison to liberal groups.

Harry Reid, the incoming Senate minority leader, is engaged in private talks with the Massachusetts freshman to create a special leadership post for the former Harvard professor, according to several people familiar with the matter.

In the new position, Warren is expected to serve as a go between to liberal groups to ensure their voice is part of the leadership’s private deliberations, a source said. She would be part of the messaging and policy team.

Warren’s star is rising in the Senate with the help of Harry Reid.  She’s only been in the chamber for less than two years, and here she is being considered for a leadership position.

It’s doubtful that Senator Reid is doing anybody any favors. He, the master politician, is trying to stave off any rebellion against him for Senate Democratic Leader after the disastrous midterms. If that means elevating Ms. Warren at a time when the Clintons would prefer her kept out of the limelight, so be it. Numero Uno comes first.

Perhaps Mrs. Clinton road to the 2016 nomination isn’t going to be as smooth as once thought.

by @ 11:10 am. Filed under 2016, Democrats, Elizabeth Warren, Hillary Clinton

November 3, 2014

Can Democrats Win Without the Middle Class?

Eight years ago, in the wake of the Republican loss of both the House and the Senate in November of 2006, I penned a piece comparing the exit polls from the 2006 midterms with those from the 2004 general election in order to discover just which voters had abandoned Republicans and ended their 12 year reign on Capitol Hill. In so doing, I discovered that Republicans had garnered disproportionate losses among middle income and upper middle income white male voters in suburban and exurban communities. While the GOP had held its own among its truest believers — the very ideological and very religious — the regular Republicans, who just wanted their taxes to remain low, their communities to remain secure, and who otherwise wanted to be left alone, had stayed at home or voted Democratic during that election, giving Congress to the Democrats.

Now, Republicans are almost assuredly about to take back the Senate, capturing control of both houses of Congress for the first time since their loss of the same in 2006. This begs the question as to which voters have decided to part company with the Democrats, at least for now, in order to give the GOP another bite at the apple.

My prediction is that the voters that Democrats will lose tomorrow night will largely be middle class and lower middle class white voters, who have little in common with a Democratic Party that has placed kitchen table issues on the back burner in order to focus on a proactive cultural agenda that would make Lena Dunham swoon. Just as Republicans need those regular voters who don’t care much about politics, but who do have a basically Republican world view, to come out to the polls and form the meat in the middle of the Republican Party, so do Democrats need lunch bucket voters to support them at the polling place if they are to retain control of the nation’s levers of government. Without the lunch bucket Democrats, the party will still win the vote of urban white women in their 20s, and dyed in the wool progressives, but that will not a majority make.

President Obama and the Democratic establishment’s midterm election strategy seems to be to turn out as many Democratic base voters as possible, while ignoring the casual Democrats who have always been needed for any long-standing majority. The War on Women is back, but in a sloppier, campy, almost unintentionally comical way in some races. The establishment winks and nods about immigration reform after the election, and implies that those who support Ebola quarantines have a nefarious racial motive, hoping to up turnout among voting blocs of traditionally under-represented minorities. But this kind of cultural campaign ignores the kitchen table issues that middle class voters who have been inclined to support the Democrats in recent elections want to hear about.

Many such voters have seen ObamaCare destroy their state budgets and lead to changes in their health plans or cuts to other programs they care about, such as state pensions or education. These voters have been hesitant to embrace Republicans until late in the game, hence the number of late-breaking races for the GOP. And many will likely choose to stay home, perhaps exacerbating the “missing white voters” issue from 2012. But the reality is that if and when Democrats lose tomorrow night, they will likely do so because they have ignored the concerns of the broader middle class that they so often claim to speak for and represent.

by @ 8:43 pm. Filed under 2014, Democrats

October 26, 2014

What Could Happen If There Is A Wave

I am writing this BEFORE the votes are counted on election day; in fact, I am writing this several days beforehand. I am NOT predicting any of the outcomes discussed here; I am only suggesting what might happen if the much-discussed political “wave” does (or does not) occur on November 4.

I further want to point out that political waves come in various sizes. Furthermore, it is quite possible that there will be no true wave this cycle, only an election in which the party holding the White House loses some seats in the U.S. house and senate.

But let’s say, for argument’s sake, there IS a wave.

If there is a wave, its intensity and impact will depend on how emotionally motivated significant numbers of voters, most of them independents or non-party-affiliated, are on election day. This general group usually make up most of the so-called undecided voters, especially those who make up their minds at the very end of the campaign, and then go to the polls.

At this late date, it is very difficult to imagine a scenario in which “wave” voters would turn to Democratic candidates. If there is a wave in 2014, it will be most likely a conservative and/or anti-Obama wave.

Currently, not taking into account a wave, there is a general consensus that Republicans will pick up 5-7 U.S. senate seats, 5-10 U.S. house seats, and that Democrats will gain a net of 3-4 governorships. That would be a decent night for the conservative party, but no wave. If the Democrats can hold GOP gains in the senate to five or less, it would actually be a relatively good night for the Democrats.

A true “wave,” in my opinion, would require many more undecided voters to vote Republican, and many Democrats to stay home. A true wave would produce a net gain of 8-10 Republican senators, 11-15 Republican house members, and close to a draw in net new governors. A “tsunami” wave, on the other hand, would bring in 11-15 new GOP senators, 16-25 new GOP house members, and the surprise of some net gain in GOP governors.

The “tsunami” scenario in 2014 seems unlikely with about one week to go, but a more modest “wave” does not. Considering the Democratic advantages of cash and their get-out-the-effort, a more modest “traditional” mid-term election with only some congressional gains for the GOP, and Democrats picking a small number of governorships is also quite possible.

I want to repeat what I have said now for many months. Any kind of true wave, moderate or heavy, does not appear visible until either just before election day, or when the vote is counted. Waves are almost always late-breaking. Not only that, waves can peak too soon or, as in the 1968 presidential election, not reach their peak in time for the actual voting. (“President” Hubert Humphrey knew a lot about that scenario!)

This discussion is obviously speculative. Even with only days to go before election day, the dimensions of the 2014 cycle are unclear. Waves are relatively rare electoral occurrences. When they do happen, however, and especially when they are passionate expressions of the voters, they often bring big surprises and great shock in their wake.

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Copyright (c) 2014 by Barry Casselman. All rights reserved.

by @ 1:34 pm. Filed under 2014, Democrats, Predictions, Republican Party

October 17, 2014

Fair Warning

The past week was generally good to the Republicans, but a true whole picture of the final outcomes of 2014 is not yet in sight.

No political party easily gives up the powers that they have, and the Democrats are  particularly “ferocious” in this cycle to keep control of the U.S. senate, and to make gains in their number of governors of the states.

I have been stressing, despite the voter momentum to the conservative party this cycle, that the liberal party has serious cards to play, and that they are, and will continue, playing them right up to election day. These include much more campaign funds, reliable constituencies, and a proven and effective ability to get out their vote. Republicans this cycle have outfunded the Democrats only in the gubernatorial races (thanks to having more incumbents and the efforts of Republican Governors Association chairman Chris Christie).

The structure of the congressional map, as well as the GOP trend this year, ensures mostly good outcomes for the conservative party in U.S. house races, despite the Democrats’ financial advantage in these races. The Democrats have now pulled their ads in many of the races where they hoped to defeat incumbent Republicans, and reallocated those funds to saving vulnerable Democrats.

It is in the U.S. senate races where Republicans must most be wary, and not overconfident, with just under three weeks to go. The Democrats know where they still have opportunities, both to save their own vulnerable incumbents and to possibly pick off an incumbent GOP senator or two. They have the money and they have the technology to make a successful last stand.

As in some house races, Democrats have redirected their efforts in some senate races. They appear to be conceding Colorado and Kentucky, but there are several senate races where heavy advertising and aggressive get-out-the-vote efforts might yet save the political day for them.

Just as, following the 2004 election when Republicans had the better ground game, the 2014 mid-term elections are a challenge to the opposition party to adapt to a new election landscape featuring early voting, looser voting rules, high-tech voter I.D methods, and new political media/communication venues.

Barack Obama defeated Hillary Clinton for the Democratic party nomination in 2008 in part by embracing the then new election landscape, and he defeated Mitt Romney in 2012 in part because the Republicans had not learned the technical lessons of 2006 and 2008.

The conservative party has had fair warning.

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Copyright (c) 2014 by Barry Casselman. All rights reserved.

by @ 5:12 pm. Filed under 2014, Campaign Strategy, Chris Christie, Democrats, House Races, Republican Party, Senate Races

October 14, 2014

It’s Complicated

Three weeks from tonight, if current trends hold, the Republican Party appears poised to achieve a solid, yet not overwhelming, victory in this year’s midterm elections. What we’re about to see is not quite a wave, but might best be described as a correction. The red states are red again, while the blue states remain blue, and the purple states seem willing to give Republicans a chance. The Republicans will almost certainly capture the Senate, and possibly do so quite solidly, and may actually attain their greatest majority in the House in several decades. All of this, however, does not suggest a Republican resurgence, but rather a diminishing Democratic government.

If the national zeitgeist were to be put into words right now, it would probably go something like this. Things just don’t feel quite right in America. We’re not exactly doing poorly. We’re not in the midst of a once-in-a-generation economic depression, or a clash of civilizations against a foreign empire. No, instead, the tableau is more complicated. The economy seems to be growing on paper, but it doesn’t quite feel that way on the ground. America’s economic engine is working, but not roaring. The unemployment rate has gone down, but people are still not getting promotions, not getting raises, and working two jobs to keep afloat. There’s no optimism out there. Instead, there’s acceptance of a new normal, and a creeping feeling that it doesn’t have to be this way.

Internationally, America seems to be faced with a number of difficult challenges. These challenges seem like they could have been prevented, but now that they exist, they don’t seem easily reparable. The spread of ISIS in the Middle East, and the presence of Ebola within American borders, shouldn’t have happened, but did, and solutions to these sorts of challenges seem, like the economic picture, complicated.

And then there’s the Democratic government. Democrats like “complicated.” Democrats are all about “complicated,” because Democrats believe that life is inherently complicated, and are always ready and willing to provide complicated solutions that will somehow make things even more complicated. Democrats will be the first to claim that the current complicated state of things is the best of all possible outcomes given what they had to work with.

But again, I think, the current zeitgeist goes something like this. We don’t quite buy that argument. Both parties made that argument before, in the 1970s, and then the 1980s came, and it turned out not to be true, and that America could make a comeback. So maybe, once again, it’s not so simple as to deem the future of America to be complicated. Maybe it’s just that our current leaders don’t have a better answer.

Enter Hillary Clinton. Once thought to be the inevitable 45th President, Mrs. Clinton has been coming down to earth in the polls as of late. Several polls have found her statistically tied with a number of Republicans in Iowa, an all important swing state won by Republicans in 2004, and Democrats in 2008 and 2012. Should other purple states follow suit, the Democrats may find that they have a fight on their hands, as memories of the Clinton years are eclipsed by the nagging feeling that the Democratic government simply doesn’t know what to do to make the country better.

Meanwhile, the Republicans still seem to lack a unified message, or optimistic tone, and continue to search for a national leader that can give the party meaning and purpose in the modern era, a full decade following its last presidential victory. Such a leader is not simply going to have to speak to the GOP base, but actually bring together the hodgepodge of voting blocs that will give Republicans victories in states like Florida, Virginia, Ohio, Colorado, Iowa, and New Hampshire, the purple states last won by George W. Bush.

Asking for a charismatic and optimistic leader who will end up on Mount Rushmore might be a bit much given the prospective field of Republican candidates. And that’s not necessarily a bad thing. After all, Democrats thought they had found the same in Mr. Obama, and look how that turned out. The nation may not be opposed to electing someone with less panache this time around, someone a bit more sober and perhaps just a tad boring, but at the same time, any such leader is still going to find that a personal connection with the American people remains a prerequisite for the presidency.

That personal connection was something that Mr. Romney, who is rumored to be considering yet another run, was never able to attain. Despite winning all three debates with Mr. Obama, Mr. Romney was unable to garner the support of a majority of Americans. The Republican Party, hungry for leadership, appears to be considering Mr. Romney again, but it is still far from clear whether Mr. Romney has the ability to be relatable, and to truly reach through the television screen and have a human moment with the American people.

Contra Mr. Romney is Mr. Huckabee, his former primary opponent, and continued outspoken former governor and cultural conservative. Mr. Huckabee is not lacking in human moments, but may not quite capture the zeitgeist of the era, which isn’t really about cultural conservatism versus cultural liberalism, and which is more about a Democratic government promising stagnation in perpetuity, and an American people that want an optimistic alternative filled with opportunity. Mr. Huckabee’s recent weigh in on same sex marriage, an issue on which the country seems to be moving away from his point of view, probably does represent the former’s governor’s genuine beliefs, but doesn’t necessarily bode well for a presidential campaign.

And then there’s Mr. Bush. The former Florida governor seems to be setting his sights on becoming the third member of the Bush family to find his way into the Oval Office, and, in ways that were unthinkable just six years ago, is beginning to seem to be a reasonable bet for the nomination were he to run. The zeitgeist, acting as confessor, seems to have given the most recent president named Bush absolution, and the nation’s problems no longer seem to be the result of an inept Republican president, but the inevitable woes of a nation that had once believed that peace and prosperity could last forever, with the focus now being on how to regain America’s lost prowess.

Mr. Bush’s argument for the nomination goes something like this: “Republicans, I am you. I am just as competent and intelligent as Mr. Romney, but I can avoid being branded just another rich guy. I proved that in Florida. I am no less pro-life than Mr. Huckabee, but no one can pigeonhole me as a socially conservative former preacher. I can appeal to Latino voters, and my wife and son prove that, and I can do so with the gravitas that my friend Mr. Rubio can’t yet muster. I can improve the country’s economic policies, without coming off as wonkish like Mr. Ryan, and I can do so without scaring seniors. Heck, I governed a state filled with seniors. I can win a majority, unlike Mr. Paul and Mr. Cruz, but I also have no animosity for the followers of Mr. Paul and Mr. Cruz, nor do they for me. I know how to win Florida. I’ll hold North Carolina. I can take back Virginia, because I know how to appeal to the concerns of the military without sounding brazen or hawkish. And we can take back Ohio, because despite my family name, I don’t come off as an elitist. And if we all work together, we can win back the swing voters of the Midwest and the Southwest who instinctively know that we as a nation can do better than this, but who need to hear it from someone who sounds eminently reasonable.”

And that may be what Americans will be looking for in their next president — someone relatable without being a rock star, and someone more competent than charismatic. If so, at least a couple of dark horse contenders who believe that they meet such criteria, such as Mr. Walker of Wisconsin, and Mr. Kasich of Ohio, may also begin to more seriously look at a country in need of a leader whose primary claim to fame will be uncomplicating that which is hopelessly complicated.

Then there’s Mr. Christie, a man who appears to be eyeing the White House, despite his own path to the Oval Office being quite complicated in and of itself. Mr. Christie most assuredly has the charisma and the ability to personally connect with the American people and to make a formidable candidate in a national election. But where does Mr. Christie find his base? Is Mr. Christie going to bring lots of new voters into Republican primaries, tilting the culturally conservative Iowa caucus or the gritty, provincial, slightly paleoconservative New Hampshire primaries towards his own personal version of conservatism and Republicanism? If so, Mr. Christie has no time to spare in starting to build such a coalition, and in coming up with the ideas on which this coalition is to be built, neither of which has happened yet. Despite a personality that is larger than life, Mr. Christie will need more than personality to establish a foothold in an early primary state, or put together a coalition that will take the nomination, let alone the presidency.

To be sure, Mrs. Clinton is still the frontrunner for 2016. But a bit less of a frontrunner than she was six months ago. And perhaps six months from now, she’ll be even less of a frontrunner, as Americans, tired of economic and global complications, decide to send the Democratic government a Dear John note with the message, “It’s complicated.”

October 10, 2014

It’s The Ground Game, Smart Guy

There are now less than four weeks to go until election day. Nominees have been chosen. Initial TV and other media ads have been run. Campaign strategies are being carried out. TV debates between the candidates have begun. What remains to be done?

A very great deal, and it can be summed up in one phrase, “ground game.”

The ground game is the unglamorous, media-invisible and most labor intensive side of a political campaign. It consists of the time-consuming work of identifying a candidate’s most likely voters, keeping in touch with them by phone, with mailings and the internet, and then creating an effective organization that makes sure they get to the polls on election day.

Since 2006, the national Democratic Party, and most of the state Democratic Parties, have clearly had the better ground game. I think the liberal party’s ground game made the difference in the 2012 presidential election on behalf of their ticket. Even though the Democrats don’t have a presidential candidate running in 2014, and despite the fact that their own presidential incumbent has become quite unpopular, they will conduct a massive and effective ground game in most areas of the country this year.

Although it is undeniably a cycle favoring Republicans, the conservative party would make an enormous mistake if it does not achieve a major catch-up in its ground game in the closing days of the 2014 national mid-term elections. So far, all polling shows a higher intensity for Republican voters this year, and many Democrats are demoralized by the performance of President Obama, but that does not mean that most Democrats, effectively identified and prodded by their party’s ground game, won’t go to the polls and vote for Democratic candidates.

A so-called political “wave” could help Republicans, especially Republican U.S. senate challengers, this cycle, but if there is not a truly effective GOP ground game in the competitive senate, house and gubernatorial races, the Republican Party, its candidates, and its aspirations will fall short on election day.

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Copyright (c) 2014 by Barry Casselman. All rights reserved.

by @ 2:46 pm. Filed under 2014, Campaign Strategy, Democrats, Republican Party, Senate Races

October 8, 2014

Surprises Are Coming

The political turnabout in Kansas does not fully qualify as a last-minute surprise, the kind of which almost always appear on a national mid-term elections night. The collapse of the GOP in that state is real enough, but it has occurred enough in advance of the actual election for the Republican incumbent to make a serious effort to recover.

The real surprises percolate either on election night itself when the results are being tabulated, or at most, a few days before in the final polling when little or nothing can be done to affect the outcome.

Somewhere in the list of “Safe” Democrats and/or “Safe” Republicans is a candidate or two (or more) who is not so safe at all. Why the dynamics of these campaigns are so sudden and come so late is often unclear, but invariably they occur. And they can occur in either party. The Kansas example demonstrates this. It is shaping up to be a GOP year in the midwest, if not most of the country, and Kansas is usually as red as red can be, but both the conservative governor and the conservative U.S. senator are in trouble.

Early possibilities for a last-minute surprise include Delaware, New Jersey, Virginia, Minnesota, and South Dakota. The four former are “safe” Democratic seats, the latter race is considered now “safe” Republican. But a “wave” could defeat the Democrats, and a third party candidate could upset the Republican. In fact, there are several third party candidates this year who could alter the final results. Most of these races are now considered likely Republican, but Democrats could pull out surprise victories because some Republican voters might be moved to vote for independent or libertarian third party candidates.

I have been covering national mid-term and presidential election cycles for a very long time, and I cannot remember even one of those many election years when there was not at least one or two true surprises on election day.

I think this is one of the most wonderful and reassuring aspects of U.S. representative democracy. As much as my fellow pundits, myself included, labor to analyze and prognosticate the behavior of the American voter, it is the single voter, counted in an aggregate, who has the last, and often surprising, word.

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-Copyright (c) 2014 by Barry Casselman. All rights reserved.

by @ 3:27 pm. Filed under 2014, Democrats, Predictions, Republican Party, Senate Races, Third Parties

October 5, 2014

Poll Watch: McClatchy-Marist 2016 Democratic Nomination Survey

McClatchy-Marist 2016 Democratic Nomination Poll

  • Hillary Clinton 64% [65%] (63%)
  • Joe Biden 15% [12%] (13%)
  • Elizabeth Warren 8% [9%]
  • Bernie Sanders 4%
  • Martin O’Malley 2% [1%] (1%)
  • Jim Webb 1%
  • Undecided 6% [9%] (18%)

Survey of 408 registered Democrats and Democratic-leaning Independents was conducted September 24-29, 2014.  The margin of error is +/- 4.9 percentage points. Party ID: 76% Democrat; 24% Independent. Results from the poll conducted December 3-5, 2013 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted July 15-18, 2013are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 5:00 pm. Filed under 2016, Democrats, Hillary Clinton, Poll Watch

September 8, 2014

The Home Stretch

The 2014 national mid-term elections have now entered the final turn of their campaigns. Less than two months remain, and the number of truly undecided voters is beginning to diminish with greater velocity.

A few weeks ago, some pundits asked aloud whether a potential “wave” election was in fact going to occur. I wrote at that time that “wave” elections rarely appear visible until the final weeks and days of a political cycle, but that signs do appear to indicate that one one is forming.

I have suggested that a clear pattern of increasingly vulnerable U.S. house and senate seats now held by Democrats was just such a sign. I also suggested that most of the notable “gaffes” of the 2014 cycle were happening in Democratic campaigns (unlike 2010 and 2014 when they occurred in Republican campaigns).

The latest example of the latter took place in Alaska where incumbent Democratic Senator Mike Begich, seemingly holding his own in a close race with Republican challenger Dan Sullivan, ran a spurious and self-destructive ad against his opponent, an ad which he had to quickly withdraw. But the damage has been done, and it has changed the race.

Earlier, Democratic Congressman Bruce Braley, his party’s senate nominee in Iowa, made absurd remarks about his Iowa GOP senate colleague Chuck Grassley, belittling the fact that Grassley was an Iowa farmer. Braley, at that point, was comfortably ahead of his eventual GOP opponent Joni Ernst. The race is still competitive, but Braley has not regained his momentum, and is now behind in most polls.

Appointed Montana Democratic Senator John Walsh had acquired incumbency in his contest against GOP Congressman Steve Daines, but revelations of earlier plagiarism forced Walsh to resign his nomination, and the race is no longer in play.

Incumbent Democratic Senator Mary Landrieu, who is part of a powerful family dynasty in Louisiana, had been narrowly leading her GOP opponent Bill Cassidy, a physician, but new revelations that she is spending more time at her residence in DC, and claims her parents’ home in Louisiana as her state residence, has not been helped by assertions that she is hailed by DC politicians as the District of Columbia’s “51st senator.” The race could end in a December run-off, but if Republicans win control without her, her claim of senate influence would disappear, and she would likely lose the run-off.

For a while, it looked that the Republicans were going to get by “gaffe-free,” but the senate race in Kansas has been turned upside down by allegations that GOP incumbent Pat Roberts spends little time in the state, and has run a weak re-election campaign. His Democratic opponent has just withdrawn from the race, leaving independent Greg Orman, a moderate businessman, as the suddenly new frontrunner. Roberts might still win, but if he does not, it might not be a net loss for the GOP since Orman has declared he will caucus with the party which has the majority in the new senate. Nevertheless, the unexpected political reversal is an embarrassment to the Republicans.

Another late-developing surprise have been polls in heavily liberal (or blue state) Illinois. Not surprisingly, controversial Democratic incumbent Governor Pat Quinn is trailing is GOP opponent, but no one I know ever suggested that incumbent Democratic Senator Dick Durbin was anything but a shoo-in for re-election. Durbin, however, is under 50%, and his unknown Republican opponent only 7 points behind, an unexpected political shock. Durbin will still probably win, but now has to take his race seriously in its final days.

Otherwise, several hotly contested senate races remain close, including in North Carolina, Arkansas, New Hampshire, Colorado and Michigan. Potentially close races exist in Minnesota, Oregon, Delaware and Virginia. Vulnerable GOP seats remain in Kentucky and Georgia. How these races “break” in the final days of the 2014 elections will signal whether or not a true “wave” election is about to happen.

Unless there are more and new gaffes by individual candidates, the month of September should be relatively quiet politically on its surface. Most of the undecideds, many of them independents, will likely make their minds in October as election day approaches. A second group of pivotal voters, disaffected Democrats, will also decide whether or not they will vote at all.

This election cycle and its consequential dimensions are not yet concluded.

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Copyright (c) by Barry Casselman. All rights reserved.

by @ 4:13 pm. Filed under 2014, Democrats, Predictions, Republican Party, Senate Races

June 25, 2014

Is Hillary An Historically Weak Frontrunner?

This is the second time Hillary Clinton has been the prohibitive frontrunner for her party’s nomination for president. This time (in contrast to 2007-08) she seems even stronger in the polls. Amazingly, this time she does not yet seem to have a significant challenger, and most commentators on both the left and the right seem ready to concede her the nomination.

And yet, there is a recurring and very persistent negative aura about her candidacy, based on her record, her health, and most importantly, her performance so far as the putative choice of the national Democratic Party.

Her new book, and its accompanying book tour/appearances, have been a public relations disaster, the exact opposite for which it was intended. Rumors, and I stress that they are so far just rumors, about the state of her health abound in the media, and not just in the hostile conservative media.

It is not even an unspoken truth that the primary energy of her candidacy is that she would be the first woman president. That is certainly not necessarily a bad motive; in fact, it is a good thing that we break down barriers to the highest office in the nation. We have already had the first Catholic president and the first black president. It is only a matter of time when we have the first woman president, the first Jewish president and the first Hispanic president. But surely, religion, race or ethnicity should not be the primary or only qualification for president.

I will not here enter a detailed discussion of the quality and performance of her experience and preparation for the presidency. It is unquestionably much greater than that of the current White House occupant when he first ran in 2008. On the other hand, it is very controversial.

As for her health, she must convincingly persuade the public that she is able to endure the punishing pressure and schedule of the presidency. The days of hiding health problems of presidents and those who seek the presidency surely must be over. Going back to President Grover Cleveland’s secret cancer operation in the late 19th century, President Woodrow Wilson’s dehabilitating stroke early in the 20th century, President Franklin D. Roosevelt’s rapid physical decline in his third term twenty years later, President John F. Kennedy’s secret (almost always) fatal case of Addison’s Disease forty years later, and President Reagan’s perhaps onset Alzheimer’s at the very end of his second term, these pathologies did nothing but diminish their presidencies.

Since that time, the daily demands of the presidency have only increased manifold. Whatever one thinks of President George W. Bush and President Barack Obama, each of them were vigorous and in good health. For the period from January, 2017 to the next four and eight years, the executive challenges, and the physical stress, for the next president will likely be even greater than ever before.

Hillary Clinton has no visible individual challenger in her party with a year and a half to go before the actual next presidential contest begins.

Her primary opponent so far seems to be herself.

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Copyright (c) 2014 by Barry Casselman. All rights reserved.

by @ 4:41 pm. Filed under 2016, 2016 Headlines, Campaign Issues, Democrats, Hillary Clinton, Presidential History

December 19, 2013

Poll Watch: Fairleigh Dickinson 2016 Democratic Nomination Survey

FDU PublicMind 2016 Democratic Nomination Poll

  • Hillary Clinton 63% (63%)
  • Elizabeth Warren 9%
  • Joe Biden 5% (12%)
  • Andrew Cuomo 1% (3%)
  • Someone else 11% (12%)
  • Don’t know 11% (10%)

National survey of 412 Democratic and Democratic-leaning adults was conducted December 9-15, 2013. Results from the poll conducted April 22-28, 2013 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 5:37 pm. Filed under 2016, Democrats, Poll Watch

Poll Watch: PPP (D) 2016 Democratic Nomination Survey

PPP (D) 2016 Democratic Nomination Poll 

Given the choices of Joe Biden, Cory Booker, Hillary Clinton, Andrew Cuomo, Howard Dean, John Kerry, Martin O’Malley, Brian Schweitzer, and Elizabeth Warren, who would you most like to see as the Democratic candidate for President in 2016? 

  • Hillary Clinton 66% [67%] (52%) {63%} [64%] (58%) {57%} [61%] (57%)
  • Joe Biden 10% [12%] (12%) {13%} [18%] (19%) {16%} [12%] (14%)
  • Elizabeth Warren 6% [4%] (6%) {3%} [5%] (8%) {4%} [4%] (6%)
  • Andrew Cuomo 2% [2%] (2%) {4%} [3%] (3%) {4%} [5%] (5%)
  • Martin O’Malley 2% [2%] (1%) {2%} [1%] (1%) {3%} [2%] (1%)
  • Cory Booker 2% [1%] (3%)
  • Howard Dean 2%
  • John Kerry 2%
  • Brian Schweitzer 1% [0%] (2%) {1%} [1%] (0%) {1%} [1%] (1%)
  • Someone else/Not sure 7% [12%] (17%) {10%} [6%] (9%) {10%} [12%] (12%)

If Hillary Clinton was not a candidate for President, who would you support, given the choices of Joe Biden, Cory Booker, Andrew Cuomo, Howard Dean, John Kerry, Martin O’Malley, Brian Schweitzer, and Elizabeth Warren?

  • Joe Biden 35% [27%] (34%) {38%} [49%] (57%) (32%)
  • John Kerry 13%
  • Elizabeth Warren 13% [19%] (13%) {13%} [11%] (13%) (8%)
  • Cory Booker 7% [6%] (4%)
  • Andrew Cuomo 7% [6%] (10%) {10%} [10%] (5%) (18%)
  • Howard Dean 4%
  • Martin O’Malley 4% [3%] (3%) {3%} [1%] (1%) (2%)
  • Brian Schweitzer 1% [1%] (2%) {1%} [2%] (0%) (1%)
  • Someone else/Not sure 16% [33%] (29%) {26%} [15%] (14%) (32%)

If neither Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden, Howard Dean, nor John Kerry ran for President in 2016, who would you most like to see as the Democratic nominee?

  • Elizabeth Warren 24% [23%] (20%) {17%} [18%] (21%) {16%} [16%] (9%)
  • Andrew Cuomo 14% [13%] (11%) {25%} [22%] (25%) {19%} [21%] (27%)
  • Cory Booker 13% [14%] (8%)
  • Martin O’Malley 7% [4%] (2%) {5%} [8%] (5%) {7%} [5%] (4%)
  • Brian Schweitzer 2% [1%] (4%) {1%} [1%] (2%) {2%} [2%] (2%)
  • Someone else/Not sure 40% [39%] (47%) {38%} [36%] (36%) {40%} [45%] (46%)

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

  • Hillary Clinton 85% {85%} [84%] (81%) {79%} [86%] (86%) / 11% {12%} [11%] (12%) {15%} [10%] (10%) {+74%} 
  • Joe Biden 72% {73%} [73%] (80%) {73%} [80%] (70%) / 15% {16%} [15%] (13%) {22%} [14%] (21%) {+57%}
  • John Kerry 66% / 17% {+49%}
  • Elizabeth Warren 46% {42%} [43%] (48%) {47%} [45%] (28%) / 15% {13%} [13%] (8%) {13%} [12%] (17%) {+31%}
  • Howard Dean 33% / 25% {+8%}

Survey of 453 Democratic primary voters was conducted December 13-15, 2013.  Political ideology: 35% [38%] (34%) {37%} [39%] (36%) {37%} [32%] (36%) Moderate; 35% [34%] (35%) {31%} [30%] (32%) {24%} [32%] (30%) Somewhat liberal; 18% [15%] (17%) {14%} [17%] (20%) {23%} [20%] (16%) Very liberal; 10% [8%] (9%) {12%} [9%] (9%) {13%} [12%] (13%) Somewhat conservative; 2% [5%] (4%) {6%} [5%] (3%) {2%} [4%] (5%) Very conservative. Results from the poll conducted October 29-31, 2013 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 19-21, 2013 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted May 6-9, 2013 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted March 27-30, 2013 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted January 31 – February 3, 2013 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted January 3-6, 2013 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 30 – December 2, 2012 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted April 12-15, 2012 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 12:45 am. Filed under 2016, Democrats, Poll Watch

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