March 26, 2015

Poll Watch: PPP (D) Florida 2016 Presidential Survey

  • Hillary Clinton (D) 48% (49%) {48%} [56%] (50%)
  • Marco Rubio (R) 46% (42%) {44%} [40%] (46%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 47% (46%) {46%} [53%] (49%)
  • Jeb Bush (R) 44% (44%) {45%} [40%] (44%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 46% (48%) {48%}
  • Rand Paul (R) 42% (40%) {42%}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 49% (49%) {48%}
  • Mike Huckabee (R) 44% (40%) {41%}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 48% (46%) {46%}
  • Chris Christie (R) 41% (38%) {38%}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 49% (51%) {50%}
  • Ted Cruz (R) 42% (36%) {39%}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 50%
  • Rick Perry (R) 42%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 49%
  • Ben Carson (R) 41%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 49%
  • Scott Walker (R) 41%
  • Joe Biden (D) 43%
  • Scott Walker (R) 43%
  • Elizabeth Warren (D) 42%
  • Scott Walker (R) 41%

Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Marco Rubio’s job performance?

  • Approve 45% (44%) {45%} [44%] (49%)
  • Disapprove 40% (41%) {40%} [43%] (36%)

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Jeb Bush?

  • Favorable 45% (50%) {51%} [50%] (51%)
  • Unfavorable 42% (35%) {35%} [37%] (35%)

Do you think Jeb Bush should run for President in 2016, or not?

  • He should 37% (31%) {35%} [33%] (32%)
  • He should not 52% (53%) {50%} [51%] (53%)

Do you think Marco Rubio should run for President in 2016, or not?

  • He should 35% (32%) {27%} [37%] (38%)
  • He should not 51% (53%) {59%} [53%] (49%)

Survey of 923 likely voters was conducted March 19-22, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 3.2 percentage points. Party ID: 41% (40%) {38%} [42%] (44%) Democrat; 41% (38%) {37%} [37%] (38%) Republican; 19% (22%) {25%} [22%] (18%) Independent/Other.  Political ideology: 32% (31%) {28%} [32%] (33%) Moderate; 24% (23%) {25%} [21%] (21%) Somewhat conservative; 17% (13%) {15%}[17%] (18%) Very conservative; 16% (19%) {22%} [17%] (17%)Somewhat liberal; 11% (13%) {11%} [13%] (12%) Very liberal. Results from the poll conducted September 4-7, 2014 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted June 6-9, 2014 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 15-18, 2013 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 11-13, 2013 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

March 25, 2015

Poll Watch: Gravis Marketing/Howie Carr New Hampshire 2016 Democratic Primary Survey

Gravis Marketing/Howie Carr New Hampshire 2016 Democratic Primary Survey

  • Hillary Clinton 49%
  • Elizabeth Warren 20%
  • Bernie Sanders 12%
  • Joe Biden 5%
  • Martin O’Malley 2%
  • Jim Webb 2%

Gravis Insights, a nonpartisan research firm, conducted a random telephone survey of potential Republican and Democratic Primary voters in New Hampshire. The poll included 683 respondents for the Republican Primary and 427 for the Democratic Primary. The poll has a margin of error of ± 4% for the Republican Primary and ± 5%.

March 24, 2015

Time For Propagandismo

I don’t want to disillusion any readers, but most of what they read and hear in politics is deliberate, strategic and ongoing propaganda. That’s not all bad. This propaganda is, after all, the language of politics, and the secret is not only speaking the language, but knowing how to translate it.

We now enter the “announcement” season of the presidential campaign cycle. The “propagandismo” nature of our political language is in one of its purest forms in this season. Debates between candidates, and the conflict between their differing “propaganda” messages, have not yet taken place Media and commentary analysis challenging the propaganda is mostly ahead. Political consultants and other advisers have carefully crafted, after much discussion and editing, the persona, biographical “story,” and overall image of their candidates. The political horses are lining up to get into the starting gates. By the late autumn and early winter, we’re off to the race!

Not so long ago, announcing for president was a more simple and straightforward event. Radio, TV and the internet, as they came along, provide expanded platforms for the formal declaration of candidacy, but “in the old days” when a candidate decided to get “in”, he or she simply got “in.” Today, there are usually a series of orchestrated steps to the actual announcement. First, there is an often extended period of”speculation” during which a potential candidate gives interviews, answers media questions, and makes public speeches in which an “interest” in running for president is made of “hints,” “maybes,” and “possibles.” Then there is an announcement of the formation of an “exploratory committee” which propels a candidate into fundraising and more specific testing of the political waters. (This step arose primarily to fit the campaign funding laws introduced several years ago.) Finally, there is the formal announcement itself. Sometimes, a candidate only goes through step 1, or steps 1 and 2. We are now, in most cases, ready for those who will take step 3.

For the 2016 cycle, each major political party will have its own schedule of announcements. Senator Ted Cruz has just become the first to formally announce on the Republican (he skipped step 2, that is, he did not form an exploratory committee). He will be followed soon enough by a number of others, including predetermined “major” candidates Jeb Bush, Chris Christie and Scott Walker. Most of those who will go to step 3 have already formed exploratory committees. There is likely to be one or two surprise or late entries (like Texas Governor Rick Perry in 2012). On the Democratic side, the party and its potential candidates are awaiting the formal announcement of Hillary Clinton, reportedly set for April. Should she decide not to run, the number of formal candidates would likely increase dramatically. If she does announce, there will still be rivals in the race, most notably now former Maryland Governor Martin O’Malley, and possibly, Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren. Since a Democratic field without Clinton would be considered a relatively light one, the chance for surprise candidacies is high.

But no matter who, how many, and in which major party, the basic form of the announcement for president will most likely be similar. As I suggested at the outset, these announcements will inevitably attempt to control the narrative of the candidacy, and will be laden with propaganda.

The fresher and more original campaign launches, however, will gain at least some initial advantages. It will be instructive to observe which campaigns have figured this out.

______________________________________________________________________

-Copyright (c) 2015 by Barry Casselman. All rights reserved.

March 19, 2015

Poll Watch: CNN/ORC 2016 Democratic Nomination Survey

CNN/ORC 2016 Democratic Nomination Poll

  • Hillary Clinton 62% (61%) {66%} [65%] (67%) {64%} [63%] (65%)
  • Joe Biden 15% (14%) {8%} [9%] (8%) {13%} [12%] (10%)
  • Elizabeth Warren 10% (10%) {9%} [10%] (10%) [7%] (7%)
  • Bernie Sanders 3% (3%) {3%} [5%]
  • Martin O’Malley 1% (1%) {1%} [0%] (2%) {4%} [2%] (2%)
  • Jim Webb 1% (2%) {1%} [1%]

If Elizabeth Warren does not run:

  • Hillary Clinton 67%
  • Joe Biden 16%
  • Bernie Sanders 5%
  • Martin O’Malley 1%
  • Jim Webb 1%

Survey of 466 Democrats and Democratic-leaning Independents was conducted March 13-15, 2015.  The margin of error is +/- 4.5 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted February 12-15, 2015 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted December 18-21, 2014 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conductedNovember 21-23, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted July 18-20, 2014 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted March 7-9, 2014 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 18-20, 2013 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 6-8, 2013 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

March 16, 2015

Poll Watch: Rasmussen Generic Congressional Ballot Survey

Rasmussen Generic Congressional Ballot Survey

  • Republicans 39% 41% 39% 38% 39%
  • Democrats 38% 36% 39% 39% 38%

The national telephone survey of 2,500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports from March 8-12, 2015. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

by @ 9:52 am. Filed under 2016, Democrats, Poll Watch, Republican Party

March 13, 2015

Poll Watch: Quinnipiac Connecticut 2016 Democratic Primary Survey

Quinnipiac Connecticut 2016 Democratic Primary Poll

  • Hillary Clinton 53%
  • Elizabeth Warren 15%
  • Joe Biden 8%
  • Bernie Sanders 2%
  • Martin O’Malley 1%
  • Jim Webb 1%

Survey of 459 registered Democrats was conducted March 6-9, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 4.6 percentage points.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

March 12, 2015

Poll Watch: PPP (D) Wisconsin 2016 Presidential Survey

  • Hillary Clinton (D) 48% {50%} [47%]
  • Rand Paul (R) 42% {39%} [42%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 47% {50%}
  • Mike Huckabee (R) 40% {38%}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 48% (52%)
  • Marco Rubio (R) 40% (38%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 48%
  • Rick Perry (R) 40%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 48% {49%} [43%]
  • Chris Christie (R) 39% {36%} [40%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 52% {51%} [49%] (54%)
  • Scott Walker (R) 43% {44%} [44%] (41%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 49% [48%]
  • Ted Cruz (R) 39% [37%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 49% {50%} [46%]
  • Jeb Bush (R) 39% {39%} [42%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 49%
  • Ben Carson (R) 38%
  • Elizabeth Warren (D) 48%
  • Scott Walker (R) 45%
  • Joe Biden (D) 48%
  • Scott Walker (R) 45%

Do you think Scott Walker should run for President, or not?

  • Walker should run for President 35% {29%}
  • Walker should not run for President 58% {61%}
Survey of 1,071 registered Wisconsin voters was conducted March 6-8, 2015.  The margin of error is +/- 3.0 percentage points. Party ID: 34% {33%} [32%] (31%) Democrat; 32% {33%} [28%] (30%) Republican; 34% {35%} [41%] (39%) Independent/Other.  Political ideology: 30% {28%} [32%] (29%) Moderate; 23% {24%} [25%] (22%) Somewhat conservative; 18% {16%} [15%] (17%) Very conservative; 17% {20%} [17%] (21%) Somewhat liberal; 11% {13%} [11%] (11%) Very liberal.  Results from the poll conducted April 17-20, 2014 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 13-16, 2013 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 21-24, 2013 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 9:54 am. Filed under 2016, Democrats, Joe Biden, Poll Watch, Scott Walker

Poll Watch: Rasmussen 2016 Democratic Nomination Survey

Rasmussen 2016 Democratic Nomination Poll

If Hillary Clinton decides not to run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2016, which of these candidates would you choose to be the Democratic nominee next year – Joe Biden, James Webb, Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders or Martin O’Malley? 

  • Elizabeth Warren 31%
  • Joe Biden 30%
  • Bernie Sanders 7%
  • Jim Webb 6%
  • Martin O’Malley 2%
  • Some other candidate 12%
  • Undecided 13%

Survey of likely Democratic voters was conducted March 8-9, 2015.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 9:52 am. Filed under 2016, Bernie Sanders, Democrats, Elizabeth Warren, Jim Webb, Joe Biden, Martin O'Malley, Poll Watch

March 11, 2015

Poll Watch: PPP (D) Wisconsin 2016 Democratic Primary Survey

  • Hillary Clinton 60% (50%)
  • Joe Biden 14% (11%)
  • Elizabeth Warren 12% (4%)
  • Bernie Sanders 5%
  • Martin O’Malley 1% (0%)
  • Jim Webb 1%
  • Someone else/Undecided 7% (9%)

Survey of 504 Democratic primary voters was conducted March 6-8, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 4.4 percentage points. Ideology: 37% (39%) Moderate; 32% (32%) Somewhat liberal; 21% (20%) Very liberal; 7% (8%) Somewhat conservative; 3% (1%) Very conservative. Results from the poll conducted September 13-16, 2013 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 4:00 am. Filed under 2016, Democrats, Elizabeth Warren, Hillary Clinton, Jim Webb, Joe Biden, Martin O'Malley, Poll Watch

March 10, 2015

Poll Watch: Gravis Insights/Howie Carr (R) Florida 2016 Democratic Primary Survey

Gravis Insights/Howie Carr (R) Florida 2016 Democratic Primary Poll

  • Hillary Clinton 52% (51%)
  • Elizabeth Warren 14% (18%)
  • Joe Biden 9% (12%)
  • Jim Webb 2%
  • Mark Warner 2%
  • Martin O’Malley 2% (4%)
  • Unsure 18% (13%)

Survey of 435 Democratic voters was conducted February 24-25, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 5 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted November 19-20, 2014 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

March 9, 2015

Poll Watch: Quinnipiac 2016 Democratic Nomination Survey

  • Hillary Clinton 56% {57%} [58%] (65%) {66%} [61%] (65%)
  • Elizabeth Warren 14% {13%} [11%] (7%) {7%} [7%]
  • Joe Biden 10% {9%} [9%] (8%) {8%} [11%] (13%)
  • Bernie Sanders 4% {4%}
  • Jim Webb 1% {1%}
  • Martin O’Malley 0% {1%} [1%] (1%) {0%} [0%] (1%)
  • Don’t know 14% {14%} [15%] (13%) {12%} [15%] (14%)

If Hillary Clinton does not run for President:

  • Joe Biden 35% {34%} (45%)
  • Elizabeth Warren 25% {25%}
  • Bernie Sanders 7% {6%}
  • Jim Webb 3% {2%}
  • Martin O’Malley 1% {2%} (3%)
  • Don’t know 25% {28%} (26%)

National survey of 493 registered Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters was conducted February 26 – March 2, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 4.4 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted November 18-23, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted June 24-30, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted January 15-19, 2014 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted December 3-9, 2013 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 23-29, 2013 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted April 25-29, 2013 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 4:00 am. Filed under 2016, Democrats, Elizabeth Warren, Hillary Clinton, Jim Webb, Joe Biden, Martin O'Malley, Poll Watch

March 8, 2015

Poll Watch: McClatchy-Marist 2016 Democratic Nomination Survey

McClatchy-Marist 2016 Democratic Nomination Poll

  • Hillary Clinton 60% (62%) {64%} [65%] (63%)
  • Joe Biden 13% (11%) {15%} [12%] (13%)
  • Elizabeth Warren 12% (9%) {8%} [9%]
  • Bernie Sanders 5% (4%) {4%}
  • Martin O’Malley 1% (1%) {2%} [1%] (1%)
  • Jim Webb 1% (1%) {1%}
  • Undecided 9% (11%) {6%} [9%] (18%)

Survey of 462 registered Democrats and Democratic-leaning Independents was conducted March 1-4, 2015.  The margin of error is +/- 4.6 percentage points. Party ID: 70% (72%) {76%} Democrat; 30% (28%) {24%} Independent. Results from the poll conducted December 3-9, 2014 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conductedSeptember 24-29, 2014 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted December 3-5, 2013 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted July 15-18, 2013 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 7:00 am. Filed under 2016, Democrats, Elizabeth Warren, Hillary Clinton, Jim Webb, Joe Biden, Martin O'Malley, Poll Watch

March 7, 2015

Poll Watch: NBC News/Marist Iowa 2016 Democratic Caucus Survey

NBC News/Marist Iowa 2016 Democratic Caucus Poll

  • Hillary Clinton 68% (70%)
  • Joe Biden 12% (20%)
  • Bernie Sanders 7%
  • Jim Webb 1%
  • Martin O’Malley 0%
  • Undecided 12% (10%)

Survey of 321 potential Democratic caucus-goers was conducted February 3-10, 2015.  The margin of error is +/- 5.5 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted July 7-13, 2014 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

March 6, 2015

Poll Watch: NBC News/Marist New Hampshire 2016 Democratic Primary Survey

NBC News/Marist New Hampshire 2016 Democratic Primary Poll

  • Hillary Clinton 69% (74%)
  • Bernie Sanders 13%
  • Joe Biden 8% (18%)
  • Jim Webb 2%
  • Martin O’Malley 0%
  • Undecided 7% (8%)

Survey of 309 potential Democratic primary voters was conducted February 3-10, 2015.  The margin of error is +/- 5.6 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted July 7-13, 2014 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

March 3, 2015

Poll Watch: CNN/ORC 2016 Democratic Nomination Survey

CNN/ORC 2016 Democratic Nomination Poll

  • Hillary Clinton 60% {66%} [65%] (67%) {64%} [63%] (65%)
  • Joe Biden 15% {8%} [9%] (8%) {13%} [12%] (10%)
  • Elizabeth Warren 12% {9%} [10%] (10%) [7%] (7%)
  • Bernie Sanders 3% {3%} [5%]
  • Jim Webb 2% {1%} [1%]
  • Martin O’Malley 1% {1%} [0%] (2%) {4%} [2%] (2%)

Survey of 475 Democrats and Democratic-leaning Independents was conducted February 12-15, 2015.  The margin of error is +/- 4.5 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted December 18-21, 2014 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 21-23, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted July 18-20, 2014 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted March 7-9, 2014 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 18-20, 2013 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 6-8, 2013 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 10:30 am. Filed under 2016, Democrats, Elizabeth Warren, Hillary Clinton, Jim Webb, Joe Biden, Martin O'Malley, Poll Watch

Poll Watch: PPP (D) 2016 Democratic Nomination Survey

PPP (D) 2016 Democratic Nomination Poll

  • Hillary Clinton 54% (60%)
  • Joe Biden 16% (15%)
  • Elizabeth Warren 12% (10%)
  • Bernie Sanders 5% (2%)
  • Jim Webb 2% (1%)
  • Martin O’Malley 1% (1%)
  • Someone else/Undecided 10% (11%)

Survey of 310 Democratic primary voters was conducted February 20-22, 2015.  The margin of error is +/- 5.6 percentage points.  Political ideology: 29% (38%) Moderate; 28% (22%) Very liberal; 26% (26%)Somewhat liberal; 14% (11%) Somewhat conservative; 3% (3%) Very conservative. Results from the poll conducted January 22-25, 2015 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 8:00 am. Filed under 2016, Democrats, Elizabeth Warren, Hillary Clinton, Jim Webb, Joe Biden, Poll Watch

Poll Watch: Quinnipiac Iowa 2016 Democratic Caucus Survey

Quinnipiac Iowa 2016 Democratic Caucus Poll

  • Hillary Clinton 61%
  • Elizabeth Warren 19%
  • Joe Biden 7%
  • Bernie Sanders 5%
  • Jim Webb 2%
  • Martin O’Malley 0%

Survey of 619 likely Iowa Democratic caucus participants was conducted February 16-23, 2015.  The margin of error is +/- 3.9 percentage points.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 4:00 am. Filed under 2016, Democrats, Elizabeth Warren, Hillary Clinton, Jim Webb, Joe Biden, Poll Watch

March 2, 2015

News, And Yet No News

The CPAC event just concluded in Washington, DC has proven, through its straw poll, to be another mostly irrelevant marker in the presidential election cycle. The winner of the straw poll was Kentucky Senator Rand Paul. Coming in second was Wisconsin Senator Scott Walker. Third and fourth were Ben Carson and TexasmSenator Ted Cruz. Only Mr. Walker has a serious chance to win the nomination, but his finish at CPAC had already been foreshadowed weeks before, following a speech he made in Iowa, and in all of the recent polls. Coming in a distant fifth at CPAC was the Republican frontrunner former Florida Governor Jeb Bush. Further down the list was New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, a potentially serious contender, especially after the first debates and the primary/caucus season begins.

The next GOP presidential campaign marker will be the Iowa Straw Poll in Ames in August. This will be, as it has been in the past, another mostly irrelevant event. In 2011, the Straw Poll winner was Michele Bachmann who turned out not to be a serious contender. The Straw Poll rarely is won by the eventual GOP nominee.

A parade of self-promoting wannabes, such as Donald Trump and Rick Santorum, will continue to win media headlines in the coming months, and various other political figures will attempt to rise about the lower tiers of the field. It can be done. Scott Walker has already done this. But the eventual nominee will be someone who can win votes in the primaries and caucuses from the broader base of the conservative Republican Party. And if that nominee is to win the presidency in November, 2016, he or she will need to win a majority of votes from the non-affiliated independent voters in the nation. A good many, if not most, of those voters are more centrist than the base voters of either party, and that is why the serious contenders for president do not come from the far right or the far left.

On the Democratic side, the party awaits the formal decision of former New York Senator Hillary Clinton. She has been the overwhelming frontrunner of her party for 2016 from the beginning. Her image and her numbers have declined a bit in recent months, and her “handlers” have thus kept her out of the campaign spotlight, but her lead remains very large. Only Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren has emerged as a potential threat, yet Mrs. Warren might not even run.

There are two campaign seasons in the race for president of the United States. The earlier and longer one is managed with the cooperation of the political party activists and the news media. It is usually an extended melodrama punctuated by such events as the CPAC conference, the Iowa Straw Poll, Jefferson dinners and talk shows where large numbers of hopefuls attempt, with histrionics and bravado, to become larger than life, and grab the notice of the relatively few folks who are paying attention. The second campaign is the one where voters increasingly pay attention, and which climaxes on Election Day.

I don’t have to say which of these campaigns counts most.

————————————————————————————————————————-
Copyright (c) 2015 by Barry Casselman. All rights reserved.

February 24, 2015

Poll Watch: UT/TT Texas 2016 Democratic Primary Survey

  • Hillary Clinton 62% (60%) {64%} [67%] (66%)
  • Elizabeth Warren 12% (13%) {15%} [5%]
  • Joe Biden 6% (10%) {8%} [7%] (11%)
  • Bernie Sanders 5%
  • Jim Webb 1% (1%)
  • Martin O’Malley 1% (0%) {0%} [1%] (0%)

Internet survey of 401 registered Democratic primary voters was conducted February 6-15, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 4.89 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted October 10-19, 2014 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted May 30 – June 8, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted October 18-27, 2013 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted May 31 – June 9, 2013 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 10:24 am. Filed under 2016, Democrats, Hillary Clinton, Poll Watch

February 23, 2015

Poll Watch: Field Research California 2016 Democratic Primary Survey

Field Research California 2016 Democratic Primary Poll

  • Hillary Clinton 59%
  • Elizabeth Warren 17%
  • Joe Biden 9%
  • Bernie Sanders 6%
  • Jim Webb 2%
  • Undecided 7%

Survey of 425 likely Democratic primary voters was conducted January 26 – February 16, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 5.0 percentage points.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 10:51 am. Filed under 2016, Democrats, Hillary Clinton, Poll Watch

February 21, 2015

Poll Watch: PPP (D) South Carolina 2016 Democratic Primary Survey

  • Hillary Clinton 59%
  • Joe Biden 18%
  • Elizabeth Warren 10% 
  • Martin O’Malley 3%
  • Bernie Sanders 1%
  • Jim Webb 1%
  • Someone else/Undecided 8%

Survey of 252 Democratic primary voters was conducted February 12-15, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 6.2 percentage points. Ideology: 37% Moderate; 24% Somewhat liberal; 22% Very liberal; 14% Somewhat conservative; 3% Very conservative.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 4:00 am. Filed under 2016, Democrats, Hillary Clinton, Poll Watch

February 17, 2015

Watch: NBC News/Marist Early State 2016 Democratic Primary/Caucus Surveys

NBC News/Marist Iowa 2016 Democratic Caucus Poll

  • Hillary Clinton 68% (70%)
  • Joe Biden 12% (20%)
  • Bernie Sanders 7%
  • Jim Webb 1%
  • Martin O’Malley 0%
  • Undecided 12% (10%)

Survey of 321 potential Democratic caucus-goers was conducted February 3-10, 2015.  The margin of error is +/- 5.5 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted July 7-13, 2014 are in parentheses.

NBC News/Marist New Hampshire 2016 Democratic Primary Poll

  • Hillary Clinton 69% (74%)
  • Bernie Sanders 13%
  • Joe Biden 8% (18%)
  • Jim Webb 2%
  • Martin O’Malley 0%
  • Undecided 7% (8%)

Survey of 309 potential Democratic primary voters was conducted February 3-10, 2015.  The margin of error is +/- 5.6 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted July 7-13, 2014 are in parentheses.

NBC News/Marist South Carolina 2016 Democratic Primary Poll

  • Hillary Clinton 65%
  • Joe Biden 20%
  • Bernie Sanders 3%
  • Martin O’Malley 2%
  • Jim Webb 2%
  • Undecided 8%

Survey of 352 potential Democratic primary voters was conducted February 3-10, 2015.  The margin of error is +/- 5.2 percentage points.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 4:00 am. Filed under 2016, Democrats, Hillary Clinton, Iowa Caucuses, New Hampshire Primary, Poll Watch

February 13, 2015

Poll Watch: Christopher Newport University Virginia 2016 Presidential Survey

  • Hillary Clinton (D) 48% (51%)
  • Jeb Bush (R) 43% (38%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 49% (43%)
  • Chris Christie (R) 42% (41%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 51% (48%)
  • Marco Rubio (R) 42% (40%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 52% (52%)
  • Paul Ryan (R) 42% (37%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 52% (52%)
  • Mike Huckabee (R) 42% (37%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 52% (47%)
  • Rand Paul (R) 42% (40%)

Survey of 794 registered voters was conducted January 30 – February 10, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 3.6 percentage points.  Party ID: 25% (27%) Democrat; 21% (21%) Republican; 51% (50%) Independent. Results from the poll conducted February 23-28, 2014 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 2:10 pm. Filed under 2016, Democrats, Hillary Clinton, Poll Watch, Republican Party

February 12, 2015

Philadelphia Awarded 2016 Democratic Convention

MSNBC has the story:

DNC Chairwoman Debbie Wasserman Schultz on Thursday announced Philadelphia will host the Democratic National Convention in 2016.

“In addition to their commitment to a seamless and safe convention, Philadelphia’s deep rooted place in American history provides a perfect setting for this special gathering. I cannot wait to join Democrats across the country to celebrate our shared values, lay out a Democratic vision for the future, and support our nominee,” Wasserman Schultz said in a statement.

Philadelphia Mayor Michael A. Nutter said the city is “excited and honored” to be selected. “We’re all delighted to make history again, here in the City of Brotherly Love and Sisterly Affection,” Nutter said.

While Republicans announced months ago that their 2016 nominating convention will be held in Cleveland, Ohio, Democrats took longer choosing between three finalist cities – New York City, Philadelphia, and Columbus, Ohio. The convention will be held the week of July 25, 2016, immediately after the Republican event.

Full story here.

by @ 6:06 pm. Filed under 2016, Conventions, Democrats

February 11, 2015

New Poll Shows Hillary’s Vulnerability to Elizabeth Warren

Second verse same as the first for Hillary come 2016? A new poll commissioned by YouGov for MoveOn.org’s PAC shows that Democratic primary/caucus voters are highly receptive to Elizabeth Warren’s candidacy when her positions/bio are compare with Hillary Clinton’s, so much so that Warren pulls ahead of Clinton in Iowa and New Hampshire after these voters made aware of the differences between the two contenders:

To know Elizabeth Warren is to want her to run for president, according to a YouGov survey of likely Democratic Iowa caucus goers and New Hampshire primary voters recently conducted on behalf of the Run Warren Run campaign.

The results show that, after likely caucus goers and primary voters learn about Elizabeth Warren’s biography and issue positions, not only do a stunning 79% say they want her to run, but, in both states, Warren ends up leading all other potential Democratic candidates in a head-to-head ballot question.

The full press release is here.

Hat-tip: Joe Hanna

Poll Watch: Gravis Marketing/Howie Carr (R) New Hampshire 2016 Democratic Primary Survey

Gravis Marketing/Howie Carr (R) New Hampshire 2016 Democratic Primary Poll

  • Hillary Clinton 44%
  • Elizabeth Warren 25%
  • Bernie Sanders 13%
  • Joe Biden 5%
  • Jim Webb 1%
  • Martin O’Malley 1%
  • Unsure 10%  

Survey of 384 registered Democratic primary voters was conducted February 2-3, 2015.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 10:17 am. Filed under 2016, Democrats, Hillary Clinton, Poll Watch

February 9, 2015

Poll Watch: Saint Anselm College/Bloomberg Politics New Hampshire 2016 Democratic Primary Survey

St. Anselm College/Bloomberg Politics New Hampshire 2016 Democratic Primary Poll

  • Hillary Clinton 56% (62%)
  • Elizabeth Warren 15% (13%)
  • Joe Biden 8% (5%)
  • Bernie Sanders 8% (6%)
  • Martin O’Malley 0% (1%)
  • Jim Webb 0%
  • Someone else 0% (0%)
  • None of the above 2% (2%)
  • Not sure 11% (8%)  

Survey of 400 likely Democratic primary voters was conducted January 31 – February 5, 2015 by Purple Insights.  The margin of error is +/- 4.9 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted November 12-18, 2014 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 5:13 pm. Filed under 2016, Democrats, Hillary Clinton, New Hampshire Primary, Poll Watch

February 6, 2015

Poll Watch: UNH/WMUR New Hampshire 2016 Democratic Primary Survey

UNH/WMUR New Hampshire 2016 Democratic Primary Poll

  • Hillary Clinton 58% [58%] (59%) {65%} [74%] (64%) {62%} [61%] (63%)
  • Elizabeth Warren 14% [18%] (8%) (6%)
  • Joe Biden 8% [3%] (14%) {6%} [10%] (6%) {8%} [7%] (10%)
  • Bernie Sanders 6% [3%] (5%)
  • Andrew Cuomo 2% [1%] (3%) {4%} [2%] (2%) {1%} [3%] (5%)
  • Martin O’Malley 1% [3%] (0%) {0%} (0%) {0%} [0%] (0%)
  • Jim Webb 1%
  • Someone else 1% [1%] (1%) {5%} [2%] (2%) {2%} [2%] (1%)
  • Don’t know yet 9% [13%] (9%) {18%} [10%] (18%) {19%} [22%] (16%)
Survey of 297 likely Democratic primary voters was conducted January 2 – February 3, 2015.  The margin of error is +/- 5.7 percentage points.Results from the poll conducted September 29 – October 5, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted June 19 – July 1, 2014 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted April 1-9, 2014 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 21-26, 2014 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted October 7-16, 2013 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted July 18-29, 2013 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 4-9, 2013 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted January 27 – February 3, 2013 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 12:08 pm. Filed under 2016, Democrats, Hillary Clinton, New Hampshire Primary, Poll Watch

February 4, 2015

Poll Watch: Quinnipiac Pennsylvania 2016 Presidential Primary Surveys

  • Jeb Bush 12%
  • Chris Christie 11%
  • Mike Huckabee 10%
  • Ben Carson 8%
  • Rick Santorum 8%
  • Ted Cruz 6%
  • Scott Walker 6%
  • Marco Rubio 4%
  • John Kasich 3%
  • Rand Paul 3%
  • Bobby Jindal 2%
  • Rick Perry 1%

Survey of 342 registered Republicans was conducted January 22 – February 1, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 5.3 percentage points.

Quinnipiac Pennsylvania 2016 Democratic Primary Poll

  • Hillary Clinton 54%
  • Elizabeth Warren 12%
  • Joe Biden 10%
  • Martin O’Malley 2%
  • Bernie Sanders 2%
  • Jim Webb 1%

Survey of 392 registered Democrats was conducted January 22 – February 1, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 5 percentage points.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 12:15 pm. Filed under 2016, Democrats, Hillary Clinton, Jeb Bush, Poll Watch, Republican Party

Poll Watch: Quinnipiac Florida 2016 Presidential Primary Surveys

Quinnipiac Florida 2016 GOP Primary Poll

  • Jeb Bush 32% (21%) {27%} [25%] (22%)
  • Marco Rubio 15% (18%) {11%} [16%] (18%)
  • Mike Huckabee 11% (7%) {6%}
  • Scott Walker 9% (2%) {4%} [5%] (2%)
  • Ben Carson 8%
  • Ted Cruz 4% (10%) {6%} [9%] (12%)
  • Chris Christie 3% (6%) {7%} [9%] (14%)
  • Rand Paul 3% (8%) {14%} [11%] (9%)
  • Bobby Jindal 3% (1%) {1%} [3%] (3%)
  • Rick Santorum 3% (1%)
  • Rick Perry 1% (5%)
  • John Kasich 0% (1%)

Survey of 348 registered Republicans was conducted January 22 – February 1, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 5.3 percentage points.Results from the poll conducted July 17-21, 2014 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted April 23-28, 2014 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 22-27, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted November 12-17, 2013 are in parentheses.

Quinnipiac Florida 2016 Democratic Primary Poll

  • Hillary Clinton 61% (67%) {64%} [64%] (70%)
  • Joe Biden 11% (8%) {11%} [9%] (9%)
  • Elizabeth Warren 9% (8%) {6%} [5%] (4%)
  • Bernie Sanders 2%
  • Jim Webb 1%
  • Martin O’Malley 1% (0%) {1%} [1%] (1%)

Survey of 322 registered Democrats was conducted January 22 – February 1, 2015.  The margin of error is +/- 5.5 percentage points.Results from the poll conducted July 17-21, 2014 are in parentheses.Results from the poll conducted April 23-28, 2014 are in curly brackets.Results from the poll conducted January 22-27, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted November 12-17, 2013 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 11:45 am. Filed under 2016, Democrats, Hillary Clinton, Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, Poll Watch, Republican Party

Join The Community


Sponsored Ad

Meta

Recent Posts

Sponsored Ad

Categories

Archives

Search

Blogroll

Site Syndication

Main