April 24, 2015

Hillary’s Replacement?

The persistent question at this stage of the 2016 presidential cycle is about what might happen if Hillary Clinton’s burgeoning controversies remove her as a candidate for the Democratic nomination.

The commonplace answer to this question has been that, after Hillary, there is no truly formidable candidate. The names of Elizabeth Warren, Martin O’Malley, Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders. Lincoln Chaffee, Brian Schweitzer, and James Webb have been put forward, but none of these seem to have the stature and political skill to be able to confront successfully the eventual Republican nominee for president in 2016.

“Who is the Barack Obama of 2016?” is what many Democrats have been asking.

There is a potential candidate, however, that no one has been talking about — other than as a possible vice presidential candidate — who might be the surprise replacement for Mrs. Clinton.

Her name is Amy Klobuchar, and she is the senior senator from Minnesota, and in her second term. Prior to her election to the U.S. senate in 2006, she was the chief prosecutor (county attorney) of the largest county in Minnesota (that includes Minneapolis). Prior to that she was a legal adviser to Walter Mondale. She has degrees from Yale and the University of Chicago Law School

She is the most popular elected official in the Gopher state, well-liked by her colleagues in the senate, and is 54 years old. She is married to an attorney/college professor, and has a 20 year-old daughter.

Although not yet vetted for national office, she seems free of scandal.

Her critics cite her careful avoidance of controversial issues in the senate. Although she has sponsored some legislation, she has not put forward any major legislation of her own. She has allowed the junior senator from Minnesota, Al Franken, to be the lightning rod for most negative political stories in the state. She has a consistently liberal voting record, although she has encouraged an image of being a moderate Democrat.

Should Hillary Clinton withdraw from the presidential race, or her standing with Democrats decline precipitously, the leading alternative, as of this date, would be Klobuchar’s senate colleague, Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts (who has demonstrated considerable liberal support in national polls). Mrs. Warren has so far said she is not a candidate for president in 2016, but should the Clinton campaign falter, she is expected to change her mind. In spite of her popularity with very liberal Democratic grass roots voters, Mrs. Warren might be considered too polarizing a left wing figure to be a successful candidate in November. Senator Klobuchar’s track record and more moderate image might be a very attractive alternative to delegates in Philadelphia in the summer of 2016 at the Democratic convention.

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Copyright (c) 2015 by Barry Casselman. All rights reserved.

Poll Watch: Quinnipiac 2016 Presidential Survey

Quinnipiac 2016 Presidential Poll

  • Hillary Clinton (D) 45% [46%] [50%]
  • Marco Rubio (R) 43% [41%] [34%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 46% [47%] (46%) {49%} [49%] (48%) {49%} [53%] (50%) {49%}
  • Rand Paul (R) 42% [41%] (41%) {40%} [39%] (41%) {40%} [36%] (38%) {41%}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 45% [46%] (43%) {47%} [46%] (41%) {42%} [49%] (46%) [45%]
  • Chris Christie (R) 40% [39%] (42%) {38%} [38%] (42%){43%} [36%] (40%) [37%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 47% [47%] (46%) {49%}
  • Mike Huckabee (R) 42% [40%] (41%) {40%}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 46% [48%]
  • Scott Walker (R) 41% [39%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 48% [48%] (48%) [50%] (50%) {51%} [54%]
  • Ted Cruz (R) 41% [38%] (37%) [35%] (37%) {36%} [31%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 46% [45%] (46%) {48%} [49%] (48%) {48%}
  • Jeb Bush (R) 39% [42%] (41%) {41%} [38%] (39%) {40%}
 National survey of 1,353 registered voters was conducted April 16-21, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 2.7 percentage points.  Party ID: 32% [29%] (30%) {31%} [29%] (31%) {32%} [35%] (32%) {33%} [34%] Democrat; 25% [32%] (31%) {26%} [26%] (26%) {26%} [24%] (23%) {27%} [25%] Republican; 34% [28%] (27%) {35%} [36%] (34%) {35%} [31%] (35%) {33%} [34%] Independent; 9% [11%] (12%) {7%} [9%] (9%) {7%} [9%] (9%) {7%} [7%] Other/Don’t know. Race: 73% [73%] (74%) {73%} [74%] (74%) {72%} [72%] White; 12% [13%] (12%) {13%} [11%] (12%) {12%} [12%] Black; 6% [7%] (7%) {7%} [8%] (7%) {7%} [8%] Hispanic; 8% [7%] (7%) {8%} [7%] (6%) {8%} [8%] Other. Results from the poll conducted February 26 – March 2, 2015 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted November 18-23, 2014 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted June 24-30, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted January 15-19, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted December 3-9, 2013 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted November 6-11, 2013 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 23-29, 2013 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted June 28 – July 8, 2013 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted May 22-28, 2013 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 27 – March 4, 2013 are in square brackets.

Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 9:00 am. Filed under 2016, Democrats, Hillary Clinton, Poll Watch, Republican Party

Poll Watch: Quinnipiac 2016 Democratic Nomination Survey

  • Hillary Clinton 60% (56%) {57%} [58%] (65%) {66%} [61%] (65%)
  • Joe Biden 10% (10%) {9%} [9%] (8%) {8%} [11%] (13%)
  • Bernie Sanders 8% (4%) {4%}
  • Martin O’Malley 3% (0%) {1%} [1%] (1%) {0%} [0%] (1%)
  • Jim Webb 1% (1%) {1%}
  • Lincoln Chafee 0%
  • Don’t know 14% (14%) {14%} [15%] (13%) {12%} [15%] (14%)

National survey of 569 registered Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters was conducted April 16-21, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 4.1 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted February 26 – March 2, 2015 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted November 18-23, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted June 24-30, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted January 15-19, 2014 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted December 3-9, 2013 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 23-29, 2013 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted April 25-29, 2013 are in parentheses.

Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

April 23, 2015

Poll Watch: PPP (D) New Hampshire 2016 Presidential Survey

PPP (D) New Hampshire 2016 Presidential Poll

  • Hillary Clinton (D) 49% {50%} [51%] (52%)
  • Rand Paul (R) 40% {37%} [41%] (41%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 49%
  • Scott Walker (R) 40%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 50% (52%)
  • Marco Rubio (R) 38% (38%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 51%
  • Rick Perry (R) 38%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 51%
  • Ben Carson (R) 38%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 51%
  • Mike Huckabee (R) 38%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 49% {49%} [49%]
  • Jeb Bush (R) 36% {38%} [40%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 51% {43%} [43%]
  • Chris Christie (R) 36% {39%} [39%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 52% {51%} [50%]
  • Ted Cruz (R) 37% {32%} [38%]
  • Joe Biden (D) 44%
  • Scott Walker (R) 40%
  • Elizabeth Warren (D) 45%
  • Scott Walker (R) 40%

Survey of 747 New Hampshire voters was conducted April 9-13, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 3.6 percentage points. Party ID: 30% {27%} [30%] (29%) Republican; 28% {28%} [31%] (32%) Democrat; 43% {44%} [39%] (39%) Independent/Other. Political ideology: 32% {34%} [33%] (31%) Moderate; 21% {18%} [19%] (18%) Somewhat liberal; 20% {25%} [21%] (23%) Somewhat conservative; 15% {10%} [12%] (13%) Very liberal; 12% {13%} [15%] (15%) Very conservative.Results from the poll conducted January 9-12, 2014 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 13-16, 2013 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 19-21, 2013 are in parentheses.

Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

Poll Watch: Quinnipiac New Jersey 2016 Democratic Primary Survey

Quinnipiac New Jersey 2016 Democratic Primary Poll

  • Hillary Clinton 63% (65%)
  • Elizabeth Warren 12% (11%)
  • Joe Biden 10% (7%)
  • Bernie Sanders 3% (3%)
  • Martin O’Malley 1% (0%)
  • Jim Webb 1% (1%)
  • Lincoln Chafee 0%

Survey of 539 registered Democratic voters was conducted April 9-14, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 4.2 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted January 15-19, 2015 are in parentheses.

Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

April 21, 2015

Poll Watch: CNN/ORC 2016 Democratic Nomination Survey

CNN/ORC 2016 Democratic Nomination Poll

  • Hillary Clinton 69% [67%]
  • Joe Biden 11% [16%]
  • Bernie Sanders 5% [5%]
  • Jim Webb 3% [1%]
  • Lincoln Chafee 1%
  • Martin O’Malley 1% [1%]

Survey of 458 Democrats and Democratic-leaning Independents was conducted April 16-19, 2015.  The margin of error is +/- 4.5 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted March 13-15, 2015 are in square brackets.

Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 7:00 am. Filed under 2016, Democrats, Elizabeth Warren, Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden, Martin O'Malley, Poll Watch

April 17, 2015

Poll Watch: Marquette University Law School Wisconsin 2016 Democratic Primary Survey

  • Hillary Clinton 58.2% [64.0%] (61.5%)
  • Elizabeth Warren 14.3% [10.8%] (4.8%)
  • Joe Biden 12.0% [10.6%] (13.0%)
  • Martin O’Malley 0.9% [0.8%] (1.1%)
  • Jim Webb 0.9%
  • Someone else 3.7% [2.1%] (1.5%)
  • Don’t know 8.9% [9.2%] (11.0%)
 Survey of 391 registered Democrats and Democratic-leaning Independent voters was conducted April 7-10, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 5.1 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted October 21-24, 2013 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 6-9, 2013 are in parentheses.

Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 4:00 am. Filed under 2016, Democrats, Hillary Clinton, Poll Watch

April 13, 2015

Poll Watch: PPP (D) North Carolina 2016 Democratic Primary Survey

  • Hillary Clinton 53% (56%)
  • Joe Biden 13% (11%)
  • Elizabeth Warren 11% (13%)
  • Martin O’Malley 5% (3%)
  • Jim Webb 3% (3%) 
  • Bernie Sanders 2% (1%)
  • Someone else/Undecided 12% (12%)

Survey of 370 Democratic primary voters was conducted April 2-5, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 5.1 percentage points. Ideology: 33%(27%) Somewhat liberal; 31% (38%) Moderate; 21% (21%) Very liberal; 10% (8%) Somewhat conservative; 5% (6%) Very conservative. Results from the poll conducted February 24-26, 2015 are in parentheses.

Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 4:00 am. Filed under 2016, Democrats, Hillary Clinton, Poll Watch

April 10, 2015

Poll Watch: PPP (D) 2016 Democratic Nomination Survey

  • Hillary Clinton 54% [54%] (60%)
  • Elizabeth Warren 14% [12%] (10%)
  • Joe Biden 7% [16%] (15%)
  • Bernie Sanders 6% [5%] (2%)
  • Martin O’Malley 3% [1%] (1%)
  • Jim Webb 2% [2%] (1%)
  • Someone else/Undecided 13% [10%] (11%)

Survey of 449 Democratic primary voters was conducted March 26-31, 2015.  The margin of error is +/- 4.6 percentage points.  Political ideology: 34% [26%] (26%) Somewhat liberal; 30% [29%] (38%)Moderate; 20% [28%] (22%) Very liberal; 13% [14%] (11%) Somewhat conservative; 3% [3%] (3%) Very conservative. Results from the poll conducted February 20-22, 2015 are in square brackets.Results from the poll conducted January 22-25, 2015 are in parentheses.

Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 4:00 am. Filed under 2016, Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Jim Webb, Joe Biden, Martin O'Malley, Poll Watch

April 9, 2015

Poll Watch: PPP (D) 2016 National Presidential Survey

PPP (D) 2016 National Presidential Poll

  • Hillary Clinton (D) 46% {48%} (48%) {45%} [51%] (49%) {49%} [51%]
  • Marco Rubio (R) 43% {41%} (40%) {40%} [41%] (42%) {41%} [37%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 46% {47%} [46%] (47%) {46%} [48%] (49%) {47%} [51%] (49%)
  • Rand Paul (R) 42% {40%} [39%] (42%) {43%} [43%] (37%) {39%} [41%] (43%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 46% {48%} [45%]
  • Scott Walker (R) 42% {40%} [42%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 47% {48%}
  • Ben Carson (R) 42% {40%}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 46% {50%} [45%] (47%) {45%} [48%] (48%) {44%} {49%} [51%]
  • Jeb Bush (R) 40% {40%} [41%] (44%) {43%} [43%] (39%) {41%} {43%} [37%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 49% {50%} (51%) {47%} [49%] (50%)
  • Ted Cruz (R) 43% {40%} (40%) {41%} [41%] (33%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 48% {50%} (49%) {46%} [48%]
  • Mike Huckabee (R) 41% {41%} (42%) {43%} [42%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 46% {48%} [45%] (46%) {45%} [42%](44%) {43%} [47%] (46%) {46%} [44%]
  • Chris Christie (R) 37% {40%} [40%] (42%) {43%} [45%] (39%) {42%} [44%] (42%) {41%} [42%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 48% {48%}
  • Rick Perry (R) 39% {41%}
  • Scott Walker (R) 46%
  • Joe Biden (D) 40%
  • Scott Walker (R) 43%
  • Elizabeth Warren (D) 39%

National survey of 989 registered voters was conducted March 26-31, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 3.1 percentage points. Party ID: 39% {40%} [39%] (41%) {39%} [40%] (38%) {41%} [41%] (38%) {42%} [43%] (44%) Democrat; 31% {34%} [37%] (34%) {36%} [34%] (34%) {32%} [33%] (34%) {33%} [34%] (32%) Republican; 31% {26%} [23%] (26%) {26%} [26%] (28%) {26%} [26%] (28%) {25%} [23%] (24%) Independent/Other.  Results from the poll conducted February 20-22, 2015 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted January 20-21, 2015 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted March 6-9, 2014 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted January 23-26, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted December 12-15, 2013 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted October 29-31, 2013 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted July 19-21, 2013 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 6-9, 2013 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 27-30, 2013 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted January 31 – February 3, 2013 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 3-6, 2013 are in square brackets.

Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 10:00 am. Filed under 2016, Democrats, Hillary Clinton, Poll Watch, Republican Party, Scott Walker

Poll Watch: Quinnipiac Florida 2016 Democratic Primary Survey

Quinnipiac Florida 2016 Democratic Primary Poll

  • Hillary Clinton 65% [61%] (67%) {64%} [64%] (70%)
  • Joe Biden 11% [11%] (8%) {11%} [9%] (9%)
  • Elizabeth Warren 7% [9%] (8%) {6%} [5%] (4%)
  • Bernie Sanders 3% [2%]
  • Jim Webb 2% [1%]
  • Martin O’Malley 0% [1%] (0%) {1%} [1%] (1%)

Survey of 344 registered Democrats was conducted March 17-28, 2015.  The margin of error is +/- 5.3 percentage points. Click here to view crosstabs. Results from the poll conducted January 22 – February 1, 2015 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted July 17-21, 2014 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted April 23-28, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted January 22-27, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted November 12-17, 2013 are in parentheses.

Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 4:00 am. Filed under 2016, Bernie Sanders, Democrats, Elizabeth Warren, Jim Webb, Joe Biden, Poll Watch

April 8, 2015

Poll Watch: Quinnipiac Pennsylvania 2016 Democratic Primary Survey

Quinnipiac Pennsylvania 2016 Democratic Primary Poll

  • Hillary Clinton 48% (54%)
  • Elizabeth Warren 15% (12%)
  • Joe Biden 13% (10%)
  • Martin O’Malley 1% (2%)
  • Bernie Sanders 1% (2%)
  • Jim Webb 1% (1%)

Survey of 415 registered Democrats was conducted March 17-28, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 4.8 percentage points. Click here to view crosstabs. Results from the poll conducted January 22 – February 1, 2015 are in parentheses.

Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

Poll Watch: Quinnipiac Ohio 2016 Democratic Primary Survey

Quinnipiac Ohio 2016 Democratic Primary Poll

  • Hillary Clinton 54% (51%)
  • Elizabeth Warren 14% (14%)
  • Joe Biden 9% (7%)
  • Martin O’Malley 3% (1%)
  • Bernie Sanders 3% (5%)
  • Jim Webb 2% (0%)

Survey of 324 registered Democrats was conducted March 17-28, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 5.4 percentage points. Click here to view crosstabs. Results from the poll conducted January 22 – February 1, 2015 are in parentheses.

Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 4:00 am. Filed under 2016, Bernie Sanders, Democrats, Hillary Clinton, Jim Webb, Joe Biden, Poll Watch

April 7, 2015

Poll Watch: Gravis Insights/Townhall (R) Nevada 2016 Democratic Caucus Survey

Gravis Insights/Townhall (R) Nevada 2016 Democratic Caucus Poll

  • Hillary Clinton 61% (58%)
  • Elizabeth Warren 15% (20%)
  • Bernie Sanders 7% (4%)
  • Joe Biden 3% (8%)
  • Al Gore 3%
  • Martin O’Malley 1% (0%)
  • Jim Webb 0% (3%)
  • Unsure 10% (7%)

Survey of 319 Democratic primary participants was conducted March 27, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 6 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted February 21-22, 2015 are in parentheses.

Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

April 6, 2015

Poll Watch: ABC News/Washington Post 2016 Democratic Nomination Survey

ABC News/Washington Post 2016 Democratic Nomination Poll

  • Hillary Clinton 66% (61%) {64%} [69%] (73%)
  • Joe Biden 12% (14%) {13%} [12%] (11%)
  • Elizabeth Warren 12% (13%) {11%} [7%] (9%)
  • Bernie Sanders 5% (4%) {1%} [2%]
  • Jim Webb 1% (3%) {2%} [1%]
  • Martin O’Malley 0% (0%) {1%} [2%]

Survey of registered Democrats and Democratic-leaning voters was conducted March 26-29, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 6 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted December 11-14, 2014 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted October 9-12, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted May 29 – June 1, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted January 20-23, 2014 are in parentheses.

Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

April 4, 2015

Poll Watch: Boston Herald/Franklin Pierce University New Hampshire 2016 Democratic Primary Survey

Boston Herald/Franklin Pierce University New Hampshire 2016 Democratic Primary Poll

  • Hillary Clinton 47%
  • Elizabeth Warren 22%
  • Joe Biden 10%
  • Bernie Sanders 8%
  • Andrew Cuomo 4%
  • Martin O’Malley 1%
  • Jim Webb 0%
  • Other 3%
  • Unsure 5%

Survey of 417 likely Democratic primary voters was conducted March 22-25, 2015.  The margin of error is +/- 4.7 percentage points.

Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 10:00 am. Filed under 2016, Elizabeth Warren, Hillary Clinton, New Hampshire Primary, Poll Watch

Poll Watch: Fox News 2016 Democratic Nomination Survey

Fox News 2016 Democratic Nomination Poll

  • Hillary Clinton 61% [55%] (62%) {64%} [69%] (68%)
  • Joe Biden 12% [17%] (10%) {12%} [14%] (12%)
  • Elizabeth Warren 11% [12%] (12%) {9%} [6%] (7%)
  • Andrew Cuomo 3% [4%] (2%) {5%} [2%] (4%)
  • Bernie Sanders 3% [3%] (3%)
  • Martin O’Malley 2% [2%] (1%) {1%} [1%] (1%)
  • Jim Webb 1% [1%] (1%)

National survey of 397 registered Democrats was conducted March 29-31, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 5 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted January 25-27, 2015 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted December 7-9, 2014 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted July 20-22, 2014 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 13-15, 2014 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted December 14-16, 2013 are in parentheses.

Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 4:00 am. Filed under 2016, Democrats, Elizabeth Warren, Hillary Clinton, Poll Watch

March 30, 2015

Poll Watch: Emerson College Massachusetts 2016 Democratic Primary Survey

Emerson College Massachusetts 2016 Democratic Primary Poll

  • Hillary Clinton 42.6%
  • Elizabeth Warren 16.2%
  • Joe Biden 10.2%
  • Bernie Sanders 5.8%
  • Martin O’Malley 1.7%

Survey of 430 Democratic primary voters was conducted March 14-19, 2015.

Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 11:04 am. Filed under 2016, Democrats, Elizabeth Warren, Hillary Clinton, Poll Watch

March 28, 2015

Poll Watch: PPP (D) Florida 2016 Democratic Presidential Primary Survey

PPP (D) Florida 2016 Democratic Presidential Primary Poll

  • Hillary Clinton 58% [66%] (62%) {65%} [61%] (67%)
  • Joe Biden 14% [7%] (12%) {15%} [14%] (11%)
  • Elizabeth Warren 10% [8%] (3%) {4%} [1%] (2%)
  • Bernie Sanders 3%
  • Martin O’Malley 2% [0%] (1%) {0%} [3%] (0%)
  • Jim Webb 1%
  • Someone else/Undecided 11% [9%] (14%) {11%} [9%] (11%)

Survey of 371 Democratic primary voters was conducted March 19-22, 2015.  The margin of error is +/- 5.1 percentage points.  Political ideology: 32% [27%] (42%) {39%} [33%] (41%) Moderate; 30% [42%] (28%) {28%} [30%] (27%) Somewhat liberal; 22% [17%](18%) {18%} [22%] (16%) Very liberal; 11% [10%] (9%) {11%} [10%] (12%) Somewhat conservative; 5% [5%] (3%) {3%} [5%] (4%) Very conservative.  Results from the poll conducted June 6-9, 2014 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 15-18, 2013 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted January 11-13, 2013 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 3-4, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 31 – September 2, 2012 are in parentheses.

Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 4:00 am. Filed under 2016, Democrats, Hillary Clinton, Poll Watch

March 27, 2015

BREAKING: Harry Reid to Retire

Democrats will have to defend the former Senate Majority leader’s seat in 2016, making this a prime GOP takeover opportunity with Gov. Brian Sandoval a likely candidate:

WASHINGTON — Senator Harry Reid, the tough tactician who has led Senate Democrats since 2005, will not seek re-election next year, bringing an end to a three-decade congressional career that culminated with his push of President Obama’s ambitious agenda against fierce Republican resistance.

Mr. Reid, 75, who suffered serious eye and facial injuries in a Jan. 1 exercise accident at his Las Vegas home, said he had been contemplating retiring from the Senate for months. He said his decision was not attributable either to the accident or to his demotion to minority leader after Democrats lost the majority in November’s midterm elections.

“I understand this place,” Mr. Reid said. “I have quite a bit of power as minority leader.”

Full story here.

by @ 11:05 am. Filed under 2016, Democrats, Republican Party

March 26, 2015

Poll Watch: PPP (D) Florida 2016 Presidential Survey

  • Hillary Clinton (D) 48% (49%) {48%} [56%] (50%)
  • Marco Rubio (R) 46% (42%) {44%} [40%] (46%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 47% (46%) {46%} [53%] (49%)
  • Jeb Bush (R) 44% (44%) {45%} [40%] (44%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 46% (48%) {48%}
  • Rand Paul (R) 42% (40%) {42%}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 49% (49%) {48%}
  • Mike Huckabee (R) 44% (40%) {41%}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 48% (46%) {46%}
  • Chris Christie (R) 41% (38%) {38%}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 49% (51%) {50%}
  • Ted Cruz (R) 42% (36%) {39%}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 50%
  • Rick Perry (R) 42%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 49%
  • Ben Carson (R) 41%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 49%
  • Scott Walker (R) 41%
  • Joe Biden (D) 43%
  • Scott Walker (R) 43%
  • Elizabeth Warren (D) 42%
  • Scott Walker (R) 41%

Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Marco Rubio’s job performance?

  • Approve 45% (44%) {45%} [44%] (49%)
  • Disapprove 40% (41%) {40%} [43%] (36%)

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Jeb Bush?

  • Favorable 45% (50%) {51%} [50%] (51%)
  • Unfavorable 42% (35%) {35%} [37%] (35%)

Do you think Jeb Bush should run for President in 2016, or not?

  • He should 37% (31%) {35%} [33%] (32%)
  • He should not 52% (53%) {50%} [51%] (53%)

Do you think Marco Rubio should run for President in 2016, or not?

  • He should 35% (32%) {27%} [37%] (38%)
  • He should not 51% (53%) {59%} [53%] (49%)

Survey of 923 likely voters was conducted March 19-22, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 3.2 percentage points. Party ID: 41% (40%) {38%} [42%] (44%) Democrat; 41% (38%) {37%} [37%] (38%) Republican; 19% (22%) {25%} [22%] (18%) Independent/Other.  Political ideology: 32% (31%) {28%} [32%] (33%) Moderate; 24% (23%) {25%} [21%] (21%) Somewhat conservative; 17% (13%) {15%}[17%] (18%) Very conservative; 16% (19%) {22%} [17%] (17%)Somewhat liberal; 11% (13%) {11%} [13%] (12%) Very liberal. Results from the poll conducted September 4-7, 2014 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted June 6-9, 2014 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 15-18, 2013 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 11-13, 2013 are in parentheses.

Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

March 25, 2015

Poll Watch: Gravis Marketing/Howie Carr New Hampshire 2016 Democratic Primary Survey

Gravis Marketing/Howie Carr New Hampshire 2016 Democratic Primary Survey

  • Hillary Clinton 49%
  • Elizabeth Warren 20%
  • Bernie Sanders 12%
  • Joe Biden 5%
  • Martin O’Malley 2%
  • Jim Webb 2%

Gravis Insights, a nonpartisan research firm, conducted a random telephone survey of potential Republican and Democratic Primary voters in New Hampshire. The poll included 683 respondents for the Republican Primary and 427 for the Democratic Primary. The poll has a margin of error of ± 4% for the Republican Primary and ± 5%.

March 24, 2015

Time For Propagandismo

I don’t want to disillusion any readers, but most of what they read and hear in politics is deliberate, strategic and ongoing propaganda. That’s not all bad. This propaganda is, after all, the language of politics, and the secret is not only speaking the language, but knowing how to translate it.

We now enter the “announcement” season of the presidential campaign cycle. The “propagandismo” nature of our political language is in one of its purest forms in this season. Debates between candidates, and the conflict between their differing “propaganda” messages, have not yet taken place Media and commentary analysis challenging the propaganda is mostly ahead. Political consultants and other advisers have carefully crafted, after much discussion and editing, the persona, biographical “story,” and overall image of their candidates. The political horses are lining up to get into the starting gates. By the late autumn and early winter, we’re off to the race!

Not so long ago, announcing for president was a more simple and straightforward event. Radio, TV and the internet, as they came along, provide expanded platforms for the formal declaration of candidacy, but “in the old days” when a candidate decided to get “in”, he or she simply got “in.” Today, there are usually a series of orchestrated steps to the actual announcement. First, there is an often extended period of”speculation” during which a potential candidate gives interviews, answers media questions, and makes public speeches in which an “interest” in running for president is made of “hints,” “maybes,” and “possibles.” Then there is an announcement of the formation of an “exploratory committee” which propels a candidate into fundraising and more specific testing of the political waters. (This step arose primarily to fit the campaign funding laws introduced several years ago.) Finally, there is the formal announcement itself. Sometimes, a candidate only goes through step 1, or steps 1 and 2. We are now, in most cases, ready for those who will take step 3.

For the 2016 cycle, each major political party will have its own schedule of announcements. Senator Ted Cruz has just become the first to formally announce on the Republican (he skipped step 2, that is, he did not form an exploratory committee). He will be followed soon enough by a number of others, including predetermined “major” candidates Jeb Bush, Chris Christie and Scott Walker. Most of those who will go to step 3 have already formed exploratory committees. There is likely to be one or two surprise or late entries (like Texas Governor Rick Perry in 2012). On the Democratic side, the party and its potential candidates are awaiting the formal announcement of Hillary Clinton, reportedly set for April. Should she decide not to run, the number of formal candidates would likely increase dramatically. If she does announce, there will still be rivals in the race, most notably now former Maryland Governor Martin O’Malley, and possibly, Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren. Since a Democratic field without Clinton would be considered a relatively light one, the chance for surprise candidacies is high.

But no matter who, how many, and in which major party, the basic form of the announcement for president will most likely be similar. As I suggested at the outset, these announcements will inevitably attempt to control the narrative of the candidacy, and will be laden with propaganda.

The fresher and more original campaign launches, however, will gain at least some initial advantages. It will be instructive to observe which campaigns have figured this out.

______________________________________________________________________

-Copyright (c) 2015 by Barry Casselman. All rights reserved.

March 19, 2015

Poll Watch: CNN/ORC 2016 Democratic Nomination Survey

CNN/ORC 2016 Democratic Nomination Poll

  • Hillary Clinton 62% (61%) {66%} [65%] (67%) {64%} [63%] (65%)
  • Joe Biden 15% (14%) {8%} [9%] (8%) {13%} [12%] (10%)
  • Elizabeth Warren 10% (10%) {9%} [10%] (10%) [7%] (7%)
  • Bernie Sanders 3% (3%) {3%} [5%]
  • Martin O’Malley 1% (1%) {1%} [0%] (2%) {4%} [2%] (2%)
  • Jim Webb 1% (2%) {1%} [1%]

If Elizabeth Warren does not run:

  • Hillary Clinton 67%
  • Joe Biden 16%
  • Bernie Sanders 5%
  • Martin O’Malley 1%
  • Jim Webb 1%

Survey of 466 Democrats and Democratic-leaning Independents was conducted March 13-15, 2015.  The margin of error is +/- 4.5 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted February 12-15, 2015 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted December 18-21, 2014 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conductedNovember 21-23, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted July 18-20, 2014 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted March 7-9, 2014 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 18-20, 2013 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 6-8, 2013 are in parentheses.

Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

March 16, 2015

Poll Watch: Rasmussen Generic Congressional Ballot Survey

Rasmussen Generic Congressional Ballot Survey

  • Republicans 39% 41% 39% 38% 39%
  • Democrats 38% 36% 39% 39% 38%

The national telephone survey of 2,500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports from March 8-12, 2015. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

by @ 9:52 am. Filed under 2016, Democrats, Poll Watch, Republican Party

March 13, 2015

Poll Watch: Quinnipiac Connecticut 2016 Democratic Primary Survey

Quinnipiac Connecticut 2016 Democratic Primary Poll

  • Hillary Clinton 53%
  • Elizabeth Warren 15%
  • Joe Biden 8%
  • Bernie Sanders 2%
  • Martin O’Malley 1%
  • Jim Webb 1%

Survey of 459 registered Democrats was conducted March 6-9, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 4.6 percentage points.

Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

March 12, 2015

Poll Watch: PPP (D) Wisconsin 2016 Presidential Survey

  • Hillary Clinton (D) 48% {50%} [47%]
  • Rand Paul (R) 42% {39%} [42%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 47% {50%}
  • Mike Huckabee (R) 40% {38%}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 48% (52%)
  • Marco Rubio (R) 40% (38%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 48%
  • Rick Perry (R) 40%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 48% {49%} [43%]
  • Chris Christie (R) 39% {36%} [40%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 52% {51%} [49%] (54%)
  • Scott Walker (R) 43% {44%} [44%] (41%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 49% [48%]
  • Ted Cruz (R) 39% [37%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 49% {50%} [46%]
  • Jeb Bush (R) 39% {39%} [42%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 49%
  • Ben Carson (R) 38%
  • Elizabeth Warren (D) 48%
  • Scott Walker (R) 45%
  • Joe Biden (D) 48%
  • Scott Walker (R) 45%

Do you think Scott Walker should run for President, or not?

  • Walker should run for President 35% {29%}
  • Walker should not run for President 58% {61%}
Survey of 1,071 registered Wisconsin voters was conducted March 6-8, 2015.  The margin of error is +/- 3.0 percentage points. Party ID: 34% {33%} [32%] (31%) Democrat; 32% {33%} [28%] (30%) Republican; 34% {35%} [41%] (39%) Independent/Other.  Political ideology: 30% {28%} [32%] (29%) Moderate; 23% {24%} [25%] (22%) Somewhat conservative; 18% {16%} [15%] (17%) Very conservative; 17% {20%} [17%] (21%) Somewhat liberal; 11% {13%} [11%] (11%) Very liberal.  Results from the poll conducted April 17-20, 2014 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 13-16, 2013 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 21-24, 2013 are in parentheses.

Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 9:54 am. Filed under 2016, Democrats, Joe Biden, Poll Watch, Scott Walker

Poll Watch: Rasmussen 2016 Democratic Nomination Survey

Rasmussen 2016 Democratic Nomination Poll

If Hillary Clinton decides not to run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2016, which of these candidates would you choose to be the Democratic nominee next year – Joe Biden, James Webb, Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders or Martin O’Malley? 

  • Elizabeth Warren 31%
  • Joe Biden 30%
  • Bernie Sanders 7%
  • Jim Webb 6%
  • Martin O’Malley 2%
  • Some other candidate 12%
  • Undecided 13%

Survey of likely Democratic voters was conducted March 8-9, 2015.

Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 9:52 am. Filed under 2016, Bernie Sanders, Democrats, Elizabeth Warren, Jim Webb, Joe Biden, Martin O'Malley, Poll Watch

March 11, 2015

The Unthinkable Becomes Thinkable

It was unthinkable until now that Hillary Clinton would not be the Democratic nominee for president in 2016. It had been unthinkable in 2007 that she would not win in 2008, but the unthinkable did happen. This, of course, made the unthinkable even more unthinkable in 2015. Surely, any observer could reasonably conclude, she would not make the same mistakes again.

As I write this, Mrs Clinton dominates the polling for her party’s nomination by a very wide margin. She defeats any visible Republican opponent in almost every poll (although her margins have been slipping noticeably in recent days.) She has been until just now the frontrunner’s idea of a frontrunner, and no one since Dwight Eisenhower has seemed more inevitable for a party nomination in a race for president with no incumbent running.

Nevertheless, Mrs. Clinton’s candidacy is now in some trouble. The furor over her use of a private e-mails while she was U.S.secretary of state will almost certainly pass, but it certainly should have passed sooner. While prima facie improper, it is not in itself (with the information we now have) disqualifying.

It might be important to note that Mrs. Clinton’s main problem is not about making any new political mistakes. Her greatest problems seem to be about something she cannot now control or explain away, that is, her record as a public figure. While it once seemed to be a clever strategy for her (and her husband, the former president) to devise in 2008-09, that is, for her to accept the position of secretary of state in the Obama administration, her performance in that office, and under that particular president, seems to have reopened and magnified political controversies from her past, including her record of judgment, her apparently obsession for secrecy, her dependence on others to cover up her mistakes, and the untransparent and now controversial institution of the large Clinton Foundation which she heads with her husband.

It is possible, of course, that Hillary Clinton can still be the Democratic nominee for president; and even possible that Republicans will make such a mess of their current opportunity that she wins the presidency next November. There is no incontrovertible evidence in the polls that she cannot still win.

But it is becoming clear that her Republican opponents will have much from Mrs. Clinton’s past and present to bring up to the voters, and should the unthinkable happen, i.e., a bitter nomination contest — in which case there would be much her potential opponents from her own party could use against  her. With  former Maryland Governor Martin O’Malley now moving toward a Democratic nomination contest; Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren already quite popular in the party’s grass roots base; Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders also making noises to her left; former Montana Governor Brian Schweitzer, a populist, waiting in the wings; the possibly formidable New York Governor Andrew Cuomo also in the wings; and Vice President Joe Biden desperate for a good reason to stay in the race; the chemistry of the 2016 race for the Democratic presidential nomination could create a genuine contest in a short period of time.

I point out to the reader how quickly Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker has emerged as a first tier candidate in the GOP contest; how quickly New Jersey Governor Chris Christie has (at least temporarily) faded in the polls. (And how quickly he might recover when the debates begin.) With almost a year until the primaries and caucuses, the Republican contest is clearly unsettled. In the face of Mrs. Clinton’s weak performance so far, the general lack of true enthusiasm for her nomination, and now the recurring controversies, it might be very soon that the Democratic contest could also be considered quite unsettled.

Until now, it was unthinkable to say that Hilary Clinton’s nomination was not “a done deal.” There might still be a deal done on her behalf, she might yet still be president, but I think there are some very smart Democratic leaders and strategists now suddenly at least thinking about the unthinkable.

_________________________________________________________

-Copyright (c) 2015 by Barry Casselman. All rights reserved.

Poll Watch: PPP (D) Wisconsin 2016 Democratic Primary Survey

  • Hillary Clinton 60% (50%)
  • Joe Biden 14% (11%)
  • Elizabeth Warren 12% (4%)
  • Bernie Sanders 5%
  • Martin O’Malley 1% (0%)
  • Jim Webb 1%
  • Someone else/Undecided 7% (9%)

Survey of 504 Democratic primary voters was conducted March 6-8, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 4.4 percentage points. Ideology: 37% (39%) Moderate; 32% (32%) Somewhat liberal; 21% (20%) Very liberal; 7% (8%) Somewhat conservative; 3% (1%) Very conservative. Results from the poll conducted September 13-16, 2013 are in parentheses.

Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 4:00 am. Filed under 2016, Democrats, Elizabeth Warren, Hillary Clinton, Jim Webb, Joe Biden, Martin O'Malley, Poll Watch

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