April 17, 2014

Poll Watch: Fox News 2016 Republican Nomination Survey

Fox News 2016 GOP Nomination Poll

  • Chris Christie 15% (16%)
  • Jeb Bush 14% (12%)
  • Rand Paul 14% (11%)
  • Paul Ryan 9% (12%)
  • Marco Rubio 8% (8%)
  • Ted Cruz 7% (12%)
  • Scott Walker 5% (6%)
  • Rick Santorum 5% (3%)
  • Rick Perry 5% (3%)
  • Bobby Jindal 2%

National survey of 384 registered Republicans was conducted April 13-15, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 5 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted December 14-16, 2013 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 9:43 am. Filed under 2016, Chris Christie, Poll Watch

April 11, 2014

Poll Watch: Rutgers-Eagleton New Jersey Survey on Governor Chris Christie

Rutgers-Eagleton New Jersey Poll on Gov. Chris Christie

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Chris Christie is handling his job as governor? 

  • Approve 55% {55%} [53%] (68%) {67%} [66%] (70%) {68%} [73%] (67%)
  • Disapprove 41% {39%} [41%] (26%) {29%} [31%] (25%) {26%} [23%] (26%)

Among Democrats

  • Approve 29% {34%} [29%] (51%) {46%} [50%] (56%) {51%} [62%] (49%)
  • Disapprove 67% {60%} [64%] (41%) {47%} [45%] (39%) {42%} [31%] (39%)

Among Republicans

  • Approve 86% {83%} [83%] (93%) {91%} [89%] (87%) {93%} [90%] (88%)
  • Disapprove 10% {12%} [13%] (6%) {8%} [10%] (9%) {5%} [10%] (8%)

Among Independents

  • Approve 62% {58%} [60%] (71%) {74%} [70%] (77%) {75%} [75%] (76%)
  • Disapprove 34% {36%} [33%] (24%) {21%} [26%] (18%) {20%} [21%] (20%)

Among Moderates 

  • Approve 57% [53%] (71%) {65%} [69%] (73%) {70%} [75%] (68%)
  • Disapprove 39% [40%] (23%) {30%} [27%] (22%) {25%} [20%] (25%)

Please tell me if your general impression of Governor Chris Christie is favorable or unfavorable.

  • Favorable 50% {49%} [46%] (65%) {61%} [60%] (64%) {64%} [70%] (67%) {48%} [49%] (50%) {46%} [47%] (49%) {49%} [45%] (44%) {46%} [45%] (46%) {46%} [45%]
  • Unfavorable 42% {40%} [43%] (27%) {28%} [32%] (26%) {26%} [20%] (25%) {42%} [40%] (39%) {42%} [42%] (37%) {39%} [47%] (42%) {44%} [38%] (42%) {39%} [26%]

Among Democrats

  • Favorable 25% {28%} [19%] (45%) {38%} [43%] (48%) {45%} [59%] (49%) {22%} [25%] (27%) {28%} [22%] {26%} [20%] (18%) {24%}
  • Unfavorable 63% {60%} [69%] (47%) {49%} [47%] (41%) {41%} [29%] (38%) {68%} [62%] (62%) {61%} [63%] {63%} [72%] (65%) {67%}

Among Republicans

  • Favorable 82% {81%} [78%] (92%) {90%} [87%] (86%) {90%} [88%] (90%) {88%} [84%] (79%) {85%} [81%] {87%} [82%] (79%) {76%}
  • Unfavorable 13% {12%} [15%] (5%) {6%} [10%] (12%) {6%} [5%] (8%) {8%} [9%] (12%) {8%} [14%] {10%} [11%] (16%) {19%}

Among Independents

  • Favorable 55% {49%} [55%] (69%) {68%} [64%] (69%) {71%} [71%] (73%) {49%} [48%] (55%) {43%} [52%] {52%} [47%] (49%) {50%}
  • Unfavorable 37% {38%} [33%] (22%) {20%} [26%] (16%) {19%} [20%] (19%) {36%} [40%] (32%) {42%} [37%] {33%} [45%] (35%) {37%}

Survey of 731 registered voters was conducted March 31 – April 6, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 3.6 percentage points.  Party ID: 36% {36%} [39%] (36%) {39%} [40%] (41%) {41%} [39%] (43%) {38%} [35%] (37%) {39%} [37%] {35%} [31%] (36%) {35%} Democrat; 21% {23%} [19%] (21%) {21%} [21%] (22%) {19%} [22%] (22%) {24%} [24%] (22%) {21%} [20%] {18%} [19%] (22%) {23%} Republican; 43% {41%} [42%] (42%) {40%} [38%] (37%) {40%} [40%] (35%) {38%} [41%] (41%) {40%} [43%] {47%} [50%] (42%) {42%} Independent.  Results from the poll conducted February 22-28, 2014 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 14-19, 2014 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted October 28 – November 2, 2013 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted October 7-13, 2013 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted September 3-9, 2013 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted June 3-9, 2013 are in parentheses.Results from the poll conducted April 3-7, 2013 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted January 30 – February 3, 2013 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted November 14-17, 2012 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted September 27-30, 2012 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted August 23-25, 2012 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted May 31 – June 4, 2012 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted March 21-27, 2012 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted February 9-11, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 9-12, 2011 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted October 6-9, 2011 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted August 9-15, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 28 – April 4, 2011 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted February 24-26, 2011 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted October, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September, 2010 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted August, 2010 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted February, 2010 are in square brackets.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 9:35 am. Filed under 2016, Chris Christie, Poll Watch

April 9, 2014

Poll Watch: Quinnipiac New Jersey Survey on Governor Chris Christie

Quinnipiac New Jersey Poll on Gov. Chris Christie

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Chris Christie is handling his job as Governor? 

  • Approve 49% {55%} [68%] (69%) {67%} [70%] (74%) {74%} [72%] (56%) {53%} [54%] (57%) {59%} [55%] (53%) {56%} [58%] (47%) {44%} [47%] (52%) {51%} [51%] (44%)
  • Disapprove 44% {38%} [26%] (27%) {24%} [23%] (22%) {21%} [21%] (38%) {42%} [39%] (38%) {36%} [38%] (39%) {38%} [38%] (46%) {47%} [46%] (40%) {38%} [36%] (43%)

Among Democrats

  • Approve 23% {36%} [51%] (41%) {46%} [48%] (56%) {56%} [52%] (28%) {22%} [27%] (30%) {30%} [27%] (25%) {28%} [29%] (17%) {17%} [17%] (27%) {22%} [24%] (18%)
  • Disapprove 68% {55%} [43%] (52%) {43%} [40%] (38%) {37%} [39%] (65%) {74%} [65%] (63%) {64%} [61%] (64%) {66%} [67%] (76%) {75%} [75%] (66%) {68%} [63%] (67%)

Among Republicans

  • Approve 82% {81%} [90%] (96%) {91%} [93%] (94%) {93%} [95%] (90%) {87%} [87%] (87%) {92%} [86%] (87%) {90%} [88%] (84%) {76%} [80%] (82%) {79%} [75%] (75%)
  • Disapprove 14% {16%} [6%] (3%) {5%} [6%] (5%) {4%} [4%] (7%) {11%} [10%] (11%) {6%} [11%] (9%) {8%} [11%] (12%) {15%} [16%] (11%) {12%} [13%] (14%)

Among Independents

  • Approve 54% {56%} [70%] (78%) {73%} [73%] (77%) {78%} [77%] (62%) {57%} [60%] (61%) {64%} [59%] (54%) {62%} [65%] (53%) {47%} [55%] (55%) {56%} [61%] (50%)
  • Disapprove 39% {37%} [24%] (18%) {19%} [21%] (19%) {18%} [16%] (32%) {35%} [34%] (32%) {32%} [36%] (37%) {31%} [30%] (39%) {44%} [36%] (36%) {32%} [29%] (40%)

Among Men

  • Approve 53% {54%} [67%] (71%) {72%} [75%] (82%) {79%} [75%] (62%) {62%} [60%] (61%) {67%} [62%] (60%) {60%} [65%] (58%) {53%} [56%] (58%) {58%} [63%] (53%)
  • Disapprove 43% {39%} [28%] (26%) {21%} [19%] (15%) {18%} [19%] (33%) {34%} [34%] (34%) {30%} [32%] (34%) {35%} [32%] (36%) {39%} [38%] (35%) {31%} [27%] (36%)

Among Women

  • Approve 46% {55%} [69%] (66%) {63%} [65%] (67%) {69%} [70%] (50%) {46%} [49%] (53%) {52%} [49%] (47%) {52%} [51%] (37%) {36%} [38%] (46%) {45%} [40%] (36%)
  • Disapprove 45% {37%} [25%] (27%) {27%} [26%] (28%) {24%} [23%] (42%) {49%} [43%] (41%) {42%} [44%] (43%) {42%} [44%] (55%) {54%} [53%] (44%) {45%} [44%] (50%)

Survey of 1,356 New Jersey voters was conducted April 2-7, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 2.7 percentage points.  Party ID: 36% {32%} [33%] (34%) {35%} [33%] (33%) {35%} [36%] (37%) {33%} Democrat; 23% {21%} [23%] (23%) {23%} [24%] (25%) {23%} [23%] (25%) {24%} Republican; 34% {39%} [35%] (37%) {37%} [37%] (36%) {36%} [35%] (34%) {37%} Independent; 7% {7%} [9%] (7%) {5%} [7%] (7%) {5%} [5%] (4%) {6%} Other/Don’t know.  Results from the poll conducted January 10-13, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted July 2-7, 2013 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted June 7-9, 2013 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted April 19-22, 2013 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 19-24, 2013 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 13-17, 2013 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted January 15-21, 2013 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 19-25, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted October 10-14, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted August 27 – September 2, 2012 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted July 9-15, 2012 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted May 9-14, 2012 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted April 3-9, 2012 are in curly brackets.Results from the poll conducted February 21-27, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 10-16, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted November 9-14, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted October 5-10, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 9-15, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted June 14-19, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 12-18, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 3-7, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted November 3-8, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 9-17, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted June 10-15, 2010 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 10:05 am. Filed under 2016, Chris Christie, Poll Watch

April 2, 2014

Poll Watch: Monmouth University/Asbury Park Press New Jersey Survey on Governor Chris Christie

Monmouth University/Asbury Park Press NJ Poll on Gov. Christie

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Chris Christie is doing as governor?

  • Approve 51% (49%) {58%} [65%] (63%) {65%} [70%] (69%) {55%} [53%] (50%) {55%} [55%] (50%) {46%} [49%] (44%) {45%} [42%] (31%)
  • Disapprove 43% (46%) {35%} [27%] (24%) {26%} [16%] (22%) {36%} [35%] (38%) {37%} [37%] (41%) {49%} [41%] (40%) {43%} [44%] (15%)

Among Democrats

  • Approve 34% (31%) {38%} [47%] (47%) {52%} [58%] (57%){30%} [26%] (33%) {35%} [32%] (36%) {22%} [27%] (22%) {23%} [19%] (21%)
  • Disapprove 59% (64%) {52%} [45%] (37%) {39%} [26%] (30%) {57%} [60%] (55%) {56%} [59%] (55%) {72%} [61%] (58%) {65%} [68%] (24%)
Among Republicans
  • Approve 84% (77%) {89%} [85%] (89%) {86%} [88%] (85%) {90%} [82%] (74%) {79%} [84%] (78%) {75%} [80%] (71%) {80%} [65%] (52%)
  • Disapprove 14% (20%) {7%} [9%] (7%) {10%} [7%] (7%) {4%} [10%] (18%) {16%} [12%] (15%) {24%} [14%] (22%) {14%} [19%] (4%)
Among Independents
  • Approve 55% (54%) {62%} [73%] (64%) {64%} [71%] (68%) {55%} [57%] (54%) {55%} [58%] (44%) {53%} [49%] (49%) {45%} [49%] (35%)
  • Disapprove 36% (38%) {30%} [17%] (21%) {24%} [14%] (20%) {34%} [31%] (28%) {34%} [34%] (46%) {41%} [38%] (31%) {41%} [34%] (13%)

Among Men 

  • Approve 56% (55%) {62%} [70%] (62%) {61%} [69%] (68%) {61%} [58%] (59%) {56%} [54%] (52%)
  • Disapprove 38% (41%) {28%} [20%] (23%) {27%} [18%] (19%) {31%} [32%] (28%) {33%} [36%] (37%)

Among Women

  • Approve 47% (46%) {57%} [61%] (61%) {65%} [70%] (66%) {47%} [45%] (43%) {48%} [53%] (45%)
  • Disapprove 42% (47%) {36%} [30%] (25%) {26%} [16%] (23%) {40%} [40%] (42%) {42%} [40%] (48%)
Survey of 690 registered voters was conducted March 30 – April 1, 2014.  The margin of error is +/- 3.7 percentage points.  Party ID: 38% (38%) {38%} [37%] (37%) {39%} [37%] (37%) {35%} [34%] (37%) {36%} [34%] (35%) {35%} [35%] (35%) {38%} [40%] Democrat; 21% (22%) {22%} [24%] (23%) {23%} [23%] (23%) {24%} [23%] (23%) {23%} [20%] (22%) {21%} [22%] (22%) {22%} [22%] Republican; 41% (40%) {40%} [39%] (40%) {38%} [40%] (40%) {41%} [43%] (40%) {41%} [46%] (43%) {44%} [43%] (43%) {40%} [38%] Independent.  Results from the poll conducted February 19-23, 2014 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted January 10-12, 2014 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted December 4-8, 2013 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 6-10, 2013 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted April 11-14, 2013 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 6-10, 2013 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 29 – December 2, 2012 are in parentheses.   Results from the poll conducted September 19-23, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 18-22, 2012 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted April 11-15, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted January 31 – February 4, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted October 5-9, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 3-8, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted May 12-16, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 2-7, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 15-19, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted July 7-11, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 7-11, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 27-31, 2010 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 1:11 pm. Filed under 2016, Chris Christie, Poll Watch

March 29, 2014

Romney Redux?

There are a number of serious Republicans interested in running for president, at this early point, in two years.

Some of them, such as Senators Ted Cruz, Rand Paul and Marco Rubio don’t seem to have a broad enough base that would enable them to win the nomination, but they have motivated and vocal supporters, and if they run, they will be notable factors in the Republican primaries and caucuses.

Others, including Rick Santorum, Mike Huckabee and Rick Perry might be seen as figures of the past, and might not run (although Governor Perry is making serious noises about another run in 2016).

2012 vice presidential nominee Paul Ryan, Governors Susana Martinez, Scott Walker, Bobby Jindal, and John Kasich are frequently mentioned, but have yet to indicate their serious interest in 2016.

The two figures who would probably be frontrunners, Governor Chris Christie and former Governor Jeb Bush, have current political problems to overcome (although it is more likely than not that one of these two men will be the GOP nominee).

On the other hand, if the field is large, the primaries and caucuses very bitter, AND the frontrunners falter, the resulting stalemate might propel forward a name which has not really been mentioned seriously, 2012 nominee Mitt Romney, back into contention.

Romney was perhaps the wrong candidate for 2012 because his persona played into the negative Democratic media campaign that year, and because he did not, at the end, assemble as competitive campaign as did Barack Obama. But 2016 promises a very different political environment. After two terms of Mr. Obama, the voters may be weary of any Democrat (as they were in 2008 of any Republican). We must await the results of the 2014 midterm elections to draw more precise and verified conclusions, but Obamacare almost alone seems to be moving the electorate to the GOP, and threatening to ruin the Democratic Party brand for years to come.

In spite of withdrawing U.S. troops from Iraq and Afghanistan, changing our approach to the Middle East by diminishing our long alliance with Israel in a trade-off for (so-far) feckless relationships with other players in the region, and reducing our military and defenses, Mr. Obama’s numbers are very low in polls about his performance in foreign policy. He has been out-dueled so far in his relationship with Russian President Putin. His first term secretary of state, Hillary Clinton, is the presumptive nominee of the Democratic Party in 2016, but, although she will surely try to do so, it might be difficult for her to separate herself from Mr. Obama and her own actions (including her “re-set” with Russia) when working for him. (Remember Hubert Humphrey attempting to do this in 1968?)

Mr. Romney’s assertion that Russia and Mr. Putin were a major problem for the U.S., an assertion he made in the 2012 campaign, and subsequently ridiculed by Mr. Obama, looks rather prescient these days. So do many of his views on the domestic issues he ran on in 2012.

Only twice in the past 100 years has a defeated Republican presidential nominee been renominated by his party. Thomas Dewey lost in 1944, and lost again in 1948. Richard Nixon lost in 1960, but won in 1968 (and again in 1972).

In spite of his recent public visibility, there are no indications that Mitt Romney is even thinking about running again in 2016, nor under present circumstances, would he be considered a serious candidate. But in spite of the large number of major GOP candidates, the Republican field is not yet in focus for one of them to win the nomination.

Considering Mr. Romney’s stature, it is not without some curious interest to speculate, and it’s only speculation, that, in certain circumstances, he might resolve a GOP convention stalemate, or even earlier, return to the campaign field.

I’m just saying.

_________________________________________________________

-Copyright (c) by Barry Casselman. All rights reserved.

March 12, 2014

Poll Watch: Fairleigh Dickinson PublicMind New Jersey Survey on Governor Chris Christie

FDU PublicMind New Jersey Poll on Gov. Chris Christie  

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Chris Christie is doing as governor?

  • Approve 41% [48%] {61%} (62%) [58%] {61%} (66%) [73%] {77%} (56%) [51%] {55%} (56%) [54%] {53%} (51%) [54%] {44%} (51%) [51%] {53%}
  • Disapprove 44% [39%] {24%} (24%) [29%] {26%} (20%) [19%] {17%} (33%) [35%] {35%} (33%) [34%] {37%} (36%) [36%] {44%} (41%) [39%] {36%}

Among Democrats

  • Approve 24% [34%] {42%} (47%) [42%] {44%} (55%) [62%] {67%} (26%) [28%] {33%} (36%) [30%] {26%} (27%) [31%] {20%} (27%) [27%] {33%}
  • Disapprove 65% [54%] {40%} (38%) [44%] {38%} (29%) [29%] {26%} (59%) [55%] {56%} (51%) [52%] {62%} (60%) [54%] {69%} (63%) [61%] {56%}

Among Republicans

  • Approve 66% [73%] {84%} (85%) [79%] {84%} (83%) [90%] {87%} (86%) [84%] {82%} (83%) [85%] {90%} (81%) [81%] {75%} (83%) [82%] {80%}
  • Disapprove 19% [18%] {8%} (6%) [12%] {7%} (6%) [7%] {9%} (9%) [10%] {13%} (11%) [9%] {7%} (11%) [16%] {16%} (14%) [15%] {14%}

Among Independents

  • Approve 47% [41%] {66%} (60%) [62%] {64%} (61%) [80%] {92%} (60%) [55%] {65%} (53%) [60%] {52%} (50%) [64%] {47%} (49%) [54%] {50%}
  • Disapprove 36% [40%] {13%} (22%) [18%] {24%} (26%) [13%] {5%} (20%) [30%] {23%} (31%) [27%] {36%} (35%) [26%] {32%} (36%) [28%] {32%}

Among Men

  • Approve 42% [48%] {63%} (67%) [65%] {66%} (71%) [77%] {76%} (64%) [54%] {61%} (64%) [62%] {63%} (58%) [61%] {52%} (58%) [61%] {59%}
  • Disapprove 43% [41%] {23%} (19%) [26%] {22%} (17%) [17%] {19%} (28%) [32%] {32%} (27%) [27%] {30%} (31%) [31%] {36%} (34%) [32%] {32%}

Among Women

  • Approve 40% [48%] {58%} (56%) [52%] {56%} (62%) [70%] {77%} (49%) [49%] {49%} (48%) [46%] {42%} (45%) [46%] {36%} (45%) [41%] {47%}
  • Disapprove 46% [38%] {24%} (29%) [32%] {29%} (24%) [22%] {15%} (37%) [39%] {38%} (39%) [40%] {45%} (41%) [42%]{53%} (47%) [47%] {40%}

Survey of 703 registered voters was conducted March 3-9, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 3.7 percentage points.  Party ID: 45% [44%] {44%} (46%) [48%] {45%} (46%) [48%] {49%} [48%] {47%} Democrat; 30% [33%] {35%} (35%) [33%] {33%} (34%) [33%] {34%} [33%] {33%} Republican; 25% [23%] {21%} (19%) [22%] {22%} (20%) [19%] {17%} [19%] {21%} Independent. Results from the poll conducted January 20-26, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted October 24-30, 2013 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted September 30 – October 5, 2013 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted August 21-27, 2013 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted June 10-16, 2013 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted March 4-10, 2013 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted January 2-6, 2013 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 13-18, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted October 26-29, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted September 6-12, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 23-29, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 30 – May 6, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted March 5-11, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 2-8, 2012 are in curly brackets.   Results from the poll conducted October 17-23, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted September 19-25, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 16-22, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 29 – April 4, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted February 7-13, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 3-9, 2011 are in curly brackets.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 10:48 am. Filed under 2016, Chris Christie, Poll Watch

March 11, 2014

Less Ado About Christie

Some Democrats, recognizing New Jersey Governor Chris Christie’s immense potential appeal to voters as a presidential candidate in 2016, have seemed determined to “smear” him out of the race by labeling him a “bully” and trying to associate him directly with alleged scandals in his home state.

It could work. Democrats are very good at this sort of thing. The only problem, and this is very much part of his appeal, is that Mr. Christie is not content, as are most Republican politicians, just to play defense.

There were several days a few weeks ago when it seemed that most of the U.S. political news was about the so-called “bridgegate” in New Jersey. Virtually every pundit, on the right and the left, was writing Mr. Christie’s purported presidential ambitions off. Soon, however, it became apparent that the Democrats and their media allies (and some GOP rivals) were trying, if you will, to “bully” Mr. Christie out of the national scene, and a number of conservative politicians and commentators belatedly rallied to his side.

Governor Christie’s own response to the facts in the case and to the allegations made against him should be a model for other politicians to emulate. He came forward immediately, denounced the wrongdoing, fired those evidently responsible, and apologized for what happened “on his watch.” Then went back to his job.

In the meantime, the “hot’ story has become as cold as an old political promise. Mr. Christie’s appeal as a formidable fundraiser reappeared as he broke records in obtaining funds for the Republican Governors Association (of which he is this year’s chair). Then, in an invited appearance at a very conservative conference (which had refused to invite him a year ago), he was warmly welcomed with a standing ovation. Finally, Mr. Christie announced he would no longer answer questions about “bridgegate,” having voluntarily been willing to answer them at length previously.

Governor Christie has a long, long way to go if he wishes to be the 2016 Republican presidential nominee. But he has so far survived handily a major political crisis. Those in both parties who want to push him out of the way now know that the qualities that made him seem so formidable so early in the political contest are much stronger than perhaps generally thought.

Chris Christie might yet falter. He might not choose to run for president. But if he enters the contest (presumably) in 2015, he will likely again be one of the frontrunners, and probably the man to beat.

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Copyright (c) 2014 by Barry Casselman. All rights reserved.

by @ 2:54 pm. Filed under 2016, Chris Christie

March 4, 2014

Poll Watch: Rutgers-Eagleton New Jersey 2016 Presidential Survey

Rutgers-Eagleton New Jersey 2016 Presidential Poll 

  • Hillary Clinton (D) 51%
  • Chris Christie (R) 41%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 58%
  • Paul Ryan (R) 33%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 58%
  • Rand Paul (R) 29%
Among Independents
  • Chris Christie (R) 45%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 45%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 52%
  • Paul Ryan (R) 34%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 54%
  • Rand Paul (R) 29%

Among Moderates

  • Hillary Clinton (D) 48%
  • Chris Christie (R) 41%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 56%
  • Paul Ryan (R) 33%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 57%
  • Rand Paul (R) 27%

Among Men 

  • Hillary Clinton (D) 48%
  • Chris Christie (R) 45%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 54%
  • Paul Ryan (R) 38%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 55%
  • Rand Paul (R) 34%
Among Women
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 56%
  • Chris Christie (R) 35%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 63%
  • Paul Ryan (R) 26%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 62%
  • Rand Paul (R) 24%

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

  • Andrew Cuomo 47% / 19% {+28%}
  • Hillary Clinton 59% / 32% {+27%}
  • Chris Christie 48% / 40% {+8%}
  • Paul Ryan 29% / 29% {0%}
  • Rand Paul 26% / 34% {-8%}

Survey of 729 registered voters was conducted February 22-28, 2014.  The margin of error is +/- 3.8 percentage points. Party ID: 36% Democrat; 23% Republican; 41% Independent/Other. Ideology: 48% Moderate; 27% Liberal; 24% Conservative. Click here to view crosstabs.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 11:18 am. Filed under 2016, Chris Christie, Hillary Clinton, Poll Watch

March 3, 2014

Poll Watch: Christopher Newport University Virginia 2016 Republican Primary Survey

CNU Virginia 2016 GOP Presidential Primary Poll

  • Chris Christie 19%
  • Jeb Bush 18%
  • Mike Huckabee 13%
  • Paul Ryan 13%
  • Ted Cruz 9%
  • Rand Paul 7%
  • Marco Rubio 4%
  • Scott Walker 3%
  • Undecided 13%

Survey of 338 registered Republican and GOP-leaning Independent voters was conducted February 23-28, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 5.3 percentage points.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 11:04 am. Filed under 2016, Chris Christie, Poll Watch

February 25, 2014

Poll Watch: Monmouth University/Asbury Park Press New Jersey Survey on Governor Chris Christie

Monmouth University/Asbury Park Press NJ Poll on Gov. Christie

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Chris Christie is doing as governor?

  • Approve 49% {58%} [65%] (63%) {65%} [70%] (69%) {55%} [53%] (50%) {55%} [55%] (50%) {46%} [49%] (44%) {45%}[42%] (31%)
  • Disapprove 46% {35%} [27%] (24%) {26%} [16%] (22%) {36%} [35%] (38%) {37%} [37%] (41%) {49%} [41%] (40%) {43%} [44%] (15%)

(more…)

by @ 10:14 am. Filed under 2016, Chris Christie, Poll Watch

February 14, 2014

Poll Watch: EPIC-MRA Michigan 2016 Presidential Survey

  • Hillary Clinton (D) 43%
  • Chris Christie (R) 39%

Survey of 600 likely voters was conducted February 5-11, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points. Party ID: 41% Democrat; 37% Republican; 20% Independent. Ideology: 37% Moderate; 36% Conservative; 19% Liberal.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 7:00 am. Filed under 2016, Chris Christie, Hillary Clinton, Poll Watch

Poll Watch: Quinnipiac New York 2016 Presidential Survey

Quinnipiac New York 2016 Presidential Poll

  • Andrew Cuomo (D) 50% (46%)
  • Chris Christie (R) 34% (38%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 58% (59%)
  • Chris Christie (R) 31% (32%)

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

  • Hillary Clinton 65% (71%) / 30% (24%) {+35%}
  • Andrew Cuomo 59% (52%) / 28% (27%) {+31%}
  • Chris Christie 41% (55%) / 38% (17%) {+3%}

Survey of 1,488 New York State voters was conducted February 6-10, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 2.5 percentage points. Party ID: 40% (44%) Democrat; 21% (19%) Republican; 32% (32%) Independent. Results from the poll conducted March 11-17, 2013 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 5:00 am. Filed under 2016, Chris Christie, Hillary Clinton, Poll Watch

February 12, 2014

Poll Watch: McClatchy-Marist 2016 Republican Nomination Survey

McClatchy-Marist 2016 GOP Nomination Poll 

  • Chris Christie 13% {16%} [18%] (15%)
  • Mike Huckabee 13%
  • Marco Rubio 12% {7%} [7%] (12%)
  • Paul Ryan 9% {12%} [11%] (13%)
  • Rand Paul 9% {9%} [12%] (9%)
  • Jeb Bush 8% {8%} [10%] (10%)
  • Sarah Palin 8%
  • Scott Walker 7% {4%} [4%] (2%)

Survey of registered Republicans and GOP-leaning Independents was conducted February 4-9, 2014Results from the poll conducted January 12-14, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted December 3-5, 2013 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 15-18, 2013 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers:

Without Christie or Palin in the race, Huckabee and Rubio tie at the top with 15 percent.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 9:59 am. Filed under 2016, Chris Christie, Marco Rubio, Mike Huckabee, Poll Watch

January 31, 2014

Poll Watch: Purple Strategies New Hampshire 2016 Presidential Survey

Purple Strategies New Hampshire 2016 Presidential Poll

  • Hillary Clinton (D) 44%
  • Chris Christie (R) 42%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 46%
  • Jeb Bush (R) 42%
  • Chris Christie (R) 45%
  • Elizabeth Warren (D) 33%
  • Jeb Bush (R) 46%
  • Elizabeth Warren (D) 35%
Among Independents

  • Chris Christie (R) 41%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 38%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 41%
  • Jeb Bush (R) 40%
  • Chris Christie (R) 46%
  • Elizabeth Warren (D) 25%
  • Jeb Bush (R) 46%
  • Elizabeth Warren (D) 28%

Among Men

  • Chris Christie (R) 50%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 37%
  • Jeb Bush (R) 49%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 39%
  • Chris Christie (R) 52%
  • Elizabeth Warren (D) 29%
  • Jeb Bush (R) 55%
  • Elizabeth Warren (D) 30%

Among Women

  • Hillary Clinton (D) 49%
  • Chris Christie (R) 35%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 53%
  • Jeb Bush (R) 36%
  • Chris Christie (R) 39%
  • Elizabeth Warren (D) 36%
  • Elizabeth Warren (D) 39%
  • Jeb Bush (R) 38%

Survey of 1,052 likely voters was conducted January 21-23, 2014.  The margin of error is +/- 3.0 percentage points. Party ID: 27% Democrat; 27% Republican; 43% Independent. Ideology: 43% Moderate; 30% Conservative; 19% Liberal.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 8:00 pm. Filed under 2016, Chris Christie, Hillary Clinton, Poll Watch

Wildstein: “Christie Knew”

The New York Times is reporting that former Port Authority official David Wildstein’s attorney has released a letter claiming that Mr. Wildstein has evidence that Gov. Chris Christie knew about the lane closures at the George Washington Bridge as they were happening.

The former Port Authority official who personally oversaw the lane closings on the George Washington Bridge in the scandal now swirling around Gov. Chris Christie of New Jersey said on Friday that the governor knew about the lane closings when they were happening, and that he had the evidence to prove it.

In a letter released by his lawyer, the official, David Wildstein, a high school friend of Mr. Christie’s who was appointed with the governor’s blessing at the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey, which controls the bridge, described the order to close the lanes as “the Christie administration’s order” and said “evidence exists as well tying Mr. Christie to having knowledge of the lane closures, during the period when the lanes were closed, contrary to what the governor stated publicly in a two-hour press conference” three weeks ago.

“Mr. Wildstein contests the accuracy of various statements that the governor made about him and he can prove the inaccuracy of some,” the letter added.

The letter marked the first signal that Mr. Christie may have been aware of the closings, something he repeatedly denied during a two-hour press conference earlier this month.

In early January, documents revealed that a deputy chief of staff to Mr. Christie, Bridget Anne Kelly, had sent an email to Mr. Wildstein saying, “Time for some traffic problems in Fort Lee,” the town at the New Jersey end of the bridge, where Mr. Christie’s aides had pursued but failed to receive an endorsement from the mayor.

Mr. Christie has steadfastly denied that he knew before this month that anyone in his administration was responsible for the lane closings, and his administration has tried to portray it as the actions of a rogue staff member.

The governor fired Ms. Kelly. Mr. Wildstein, the director of interstate capital projects at the Port Authority, resigned.

President-Elect Hillary Clinton had no comment for this story.

by @ 2:48 pm. Filed under 2016, Chris Christie

State of the 2016 Presidential Field

With President’s Obama’s popularity waning, and with his promise of a transformational presidency long ago thwarted by his own inability to turn around the nation’s economy or enact a bold legislative agenda, eyes are beginning to turn towards potential presidential candidates on both sides of the aisle as Americans commence the search for a leader to move the nation forward and renew its sense of optimism.

On the Democratic side, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton leads her fellow Democrats by several laps, with even sitting Vice President Joe Biden polling well behind the seeming Hillary juggernaut. Given Mrs. Clinton’s popularity due to memories of her husband’s “Golden Age” economy, the contest for the Democratic nomination in 2016 may very well become a coronation. And though she currently leads all potential Republican presidential candidates in early polls of the general election, the aging Secretary of State is now tied not only to her popular husband’s Administration, but to the unpopular Obama Administration. It remains to be seen whether Mrs. Clinton can appeal to the American center the way her husband did, or the way she briefly did during her populist 2008 presidential campaign.

Meanwhile, the Republican field appears to be full of moving parts. In the wake of his re-election last year to the New Jersey governorship, Gov. Chris Christie appeared to be the frontrunner for 2016 due to his panache and charisma and his independent streak, all of which would theoretically allow the governor to sell the GOP message to the sorts of swing voters that Republicans will need in order to snag the White House in 2016. But “Bridge-gate” has hit Christie where it hurts, and with questions raised about the governor’s ethics in its wake, public support for Christie, both in New Jersey and nationally, is waning.

With Christie’s fall leaving an opening for another Republican candidate who could potentially garner non-traditional Republican voters, buzz began to circulate that former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee was considering yet another presidential run. Gov. Huckabee, during his races in Arkansas, had previously demonstrated an ability to perform disproportionately well for a Republican among usually solidly Democratic African-American voters. Despite strong poll numbers, Huckabee’s recent foray back into the spotlight has already begun to open old wounds, as his use of the term “libido” in relation to women has given Democrats an opportunity to try and reignite the 2012 “War on Women” that damaged the prospects of Gov. Romney. It is possible that Gov. Huckabee, for generational reasons, is ill-equipped to run a presidential campaign in a world where every word that comes out of a politician’s mouth is now fair game for a “hashtag” on Twitter.

Meanwhile, the candidates of the Republican base, such as Sen. Ted Cruz and Sen. Rand Paul, continue to perform strongly among Republican voters, while faring poorly in a general election matchup against Hillary Clinton. Sen. Paul’s attempt to become a more mainstream carrier of his father’s message has earned him a place in the Senate and a following among Republicans, but has not given him the kind of national following needed to win the White House at this juncture. Sen. Paul’s potential to perform solidly in both Iowa and New Hampshire during the Republican primaries will make him a force to be reckoned with nonetheless. At the same time, Sen. Cruz is attempting to become the Tea Party candidate for the 2016 cycle, a position that will make for a strong primary campaign but that might not translate well to success in the general election.

Still other prominent candidates are attempting to thread the needle and become a candidate who can garner broad support while still being rooted in the traditional Republican base. Rep. Paul Ryan, currently doing well in polls of Republican primary voters, is one such candidate. While his prospects were dampened by a less than magnetic performance during his stint as vice presidential nominee in 2012, Ryan remains a young, smart, articulate candidate who has positions acceptable to the base and who has demonstrated an ability to win crossover voters in Wisconsin. Still, whether Ryan has the charisma necessary to go the distance nationally remains to be seen. Sen. Marco Rubio once sought to fill the same position, but his star seems to have faded recently, as his positions on immigration reform put him at odds with the GOP base without doing him much good in the political center.

As such, the GOP field remains wide open for other entrants hoping to both garner the nomination and become the nation’s 45th president. One name beginning to surface is that of former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush. A popular executive in the state of Florida, Gov. Bush positioned himself during the last presidential cycle as a reasonable Republican who understands that the concerns of most voters are not necessarily on the same page as the “playbooks” of today’s Beltway political consultants. At least one poll has shown Gov. Bush holding Mrs. Clinton under 50% in a general election matchup in the all important state of Florida, and another poll shows only a two point gap between the two nationally. Moreover, Gov. Bush leads, or ties for the lead, in two recent polls of the Republican field, and has the potential to become the “establishment candidate” should he enter the race, a powerful position in a Republican presidential primary.

While many observers question the wisdom of another candidate named Bush leading the GOP ticket, the dynastic issues that would normally arise from a Bush nomination would be cancelled out by the nomination of Hillary Clinton to head the Democratic ticket. And while Mr. Bush would turn 63 in 2016, Mrs. Clinton will turn 69 that same year, meaning that both candidates will be Baby Boomers and neither will have a clear claim to Generations X or Y. And while Mr. Bush does not exude charisma, he does exude competence and statesman-like qualities, similar to Mrs. Clinton, and comes across as eminently reasonable for voters looking for a sober alternative to continued Democratic rule.

At this early juncture, though, anything could still happen. If a young, interesting candidate with potentially broad-based appeal, such as Gov. Susana Martinez of New Mexico, were to jump into the race, the dynamics of the race could change entirely. As would those dynamics change if Mrs. Clinton decided not to run. The reality is that the landscape of 2016, while coming into focus, is anything but certain.

Poll Watch: ABC News/Washington Post 2016 National Presidential Survey

ABC News/Washington Post 2016 National Presidential Poll

  • Hillary Clinton (D) 53%
  • Chris Christie (R) 41%

National survey of 873 registered voters was conducted January 20-23, 2014. Party ID: 32% Democrat; 25% Republican; 37% Independent.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 8:00 am. Filed under 2016, Chris Christie, Hillary Clinton, Poll Watch

January 29, 2014

Poll Watch: Fairleigh Dickinson PublicMind New Jersey Survey on Governor Chris Christie

FDU PublicMind New Jersey Poll on Gov. Chris Christie  

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Chris Christie is doing as governor?

  • Approve 48% {61%} (62%) [58%] {61%} (66%) [73%] {77%} (56%) [51%] {55%} (56%) [54%] {53%} (51%) [54%] {44%} (51%) [51%] {53%}
  • Disapprove 39% {24%} (24%) [29%] {26%} (20%) [19%] {17%} (33%) [35%] {35%} (33%) [34%] {37%} (36%) [36%] {44%} (41%) [39%] {36%}

Among Democrats

  • Approve 34% {42%} (47%) [42%] {44%} (55%) [62%] {67%}(26%) [28%] {33%} (36%) [30%] {26%} (27%) [31%] {20%} (27%) [27%] {33%}
  • Disapprove 54% {40%} (38%) [44%] {38%} (29%) [29%] {26%} (59%) [55%] {56%} (51%) [52%] {62%} (60%) [54%] {69%} (63%) [61%] {56%}

Among Republicans

  • Approve 73% {84%} (85%) [79%] {84%} (83%) [90%] {87%} (86%) [84%] {82%} (83%) [85%] {90%} (81%) [81%] {75%} (83%) [82%] {80%}
  • Disapprove 18% {8%} (6%) [12%] {7%} (6%) [7%] {9%} (9%) [10%] {13%} (11%) [9%] {7%} (11%) [16%] {16%} (14%) [15%] {14%}

Among Independents

  • Approve 41% {66%} (60%) [62%] {64%} (61%) [80%] {92%} (60%) [55%] {65%} (53%) [60%] {52%} (50%) [64%] {47%} (49%) [54%] {50%}
  • Disapprove 40% {13%} (22%) [18%] {24%} (26%) [13%] {5%} (20%) [30%] {23%} (31%) [27%] {36%} (35%) [26%] {32%} (36%) [28%] {32%}

Among Men

  • Approve 48% {63%} (67%) [65%] {66%} (71%) [77%] {76%} (64%) [54%] {61%} (64%) [62%] {63%} (58%) [61%] {52%} (58%) [61%] {59%}
  • Disapprove 41% {23%} (19%) [26%] {22%} (17%) [17%] {19%} (28%) [32%] {32%} (27%) [27%] {30%} (31%) [31%] {36%} (34%) [32%] {32%}

Among Women

  • Approve 48% {58%} (56%) [52%] {56%} (62%) [70%] {77%} (49%) [49%] {49%} (48%) [46%] {42%} (45%) [46%] {36%} (45%) [41%] {47%}
  • Disapprove 38% {24%} (29%) [32%] {29%} (24%) [22%] {15%} (37%) [39%] {38%} (39%) [40%] {45%} (41%) [42%] {53%} (47%) [47%] {40%}

Survey of 734 registered voters was conducted January 20-26, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 3.6 percentage points.  Party ID: 44% {44%} (46%) [48%] {45%} (46%) [48%] {49%} [48%] {47%} Democrat; 33% {35%} (35%) [33%] {33%} (34%) [33%] {34%} [33%] {33%} Republican; 23% {21%} (19%) [22%] {22%} (20%) [19%] {17%} [19%] {21%} Independent.  Results from the poll conducted October 24-30, 2013 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted September 30 – October 5, 2013 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted August 21-27, 2013 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted June 10-16, 2013 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted March 4-10, 2013 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted January 2-6, 2013 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 13-18, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted October 26-29, 2012are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted September 6-12, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 23-29, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 30 – May 6, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted March 5-11, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 2-8, 2012 are in curly brackets.   Results from the poll conducted October 17-23, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted September 19-25, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 16-22, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 29 – April 4, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted February 7-13, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 3-9, 2011 are in curly brackets.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 12:57 am. Filed under 2016, Chris Christie, Poll Watch

January 22, 2014

Poll Watch: Rutgers-Eagleton New Jersey Survey on Governor Chris Christie

Rutgers-Eagleton New Jersey Poll on Gov. Chris Christie

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Chris Christie is handling his job as governor? 

  • Approve 53% (68%) {67%} [66%] (70%) {68%} [73%] (67%)
  • Disapprove 41% (26%) {29%} [31%] (25%) {26%} [23%] (26%)

Among Democrats

  • Approve 29% (51%) {46%} [50%] (56%) {51%} [62%] (49%)
  • Disapprove 64% (41%) {47%} [45%] (39%) {42%} [31%] (39%)

Among Republicans

  • Approve 83% (93%) {91%} [89%] (87%) {93%} [90%] (88%)
  • Disapprove 13% (6%) {8%} [10%] (9%) {5%} [10%] (8%)

Among Independents

  • Approve 60% (71%) {74%} [70%] (77%) {75%} [75%] (76%)
  • Disapprove 33% (24%) {21%} [26%] (18%) {20%} [21%] (20%)

(more…)

by @ 4:12 pm. Filed under Chris Christie, Poll Watch

Poll Watch: Quinnipiac 2016 Presidential Survey

  • Hillary Clinton (D) 46% (41%) {42%} [49%] (46%) [45%]
  • Chris Christie (R) 38% (42%) {43%} [36%] (40%) [37%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 49% (48%) {49%} [53%] (50%) {49%}
  • Rand Paul (R) 39% (41%) {40%} [36%] (38%) {41%}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 49% (48%) {48%}
  • Jeb Bush (R) 38% (39%) {40%}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 50% (50%) {51%} [54%]
  • Ted Cruz (R) 35% (37%) {36%} [31%]
Among Independents
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 41% (32%) {32%} [40%] (39%) [36%]
  • Chris Christie (R) 40% (47%) {48%} [38%] (41%) [36%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 47% (43%) {43%} [43%] (42%) {41%}
  • Rand Paul (R) 38% (43%) {41%} [39%] (41%) {45%}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 47% (44%) {42%}
  • Jeb Bush (R) 36% (39%) {43%}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 48% (46%) {47%} [48%]
  • Ted Cruz (R) 33% (37%) {35%} [29%]
Among Moderates
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 52% (48%) {45%} [53%]
  • Chris Christie (R) 34% (38%) {40%} [33%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 57% (60%) {60%} [60%] 
  • Rand Paul (R) 30% (28%) {28%} [25%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 57% (60%)
  • Jeb Bush (R) 30% (28%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 59% (63%) {65%} [61%]
  • Ted Cruz (R) 25% (22%) {21%} [20%]
Among Men
  • Chris Christie (R) 43% (49%) {47%} [39%] (43%) [41%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 40% (33%) {35%} [45%] (38%) [38%]
  • Rand Paul (R) 46% (51%) {46%} [42%] (45%) {49%}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 42% (40%) {43%} [47%] (42%) {40%}
  • Jeb Bush (R) 43% (47%) {45%}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 43% (40%) {40%}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 45% (43%) {45%} [49%]
  • Ted Cruz (R) 40% (45%) {41%} [36%]
Among Women
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 51% (50%) {48%} [52%] (53%) [51%]
  • Chris Christie (R) 35% (36%) {39%} [33%] (36%) [32%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 55% (57%) {54%} [58%] (58%) {57%}
  • Rand Paul (R) 33% (32%) {34%} [30%] (32%) {33%}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 54% (57%) {55%}
  • Jeb Bush (R) 33% (31%) {35%}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 55% (58%) {57%} [58%]
  • Ted Cruz (R) 31% (29%) {31%} [27%]

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

  • Hillary Clinton 51% (53%) [56%] (55%) {52%} (61%) / 40% (42%) [36%] (38%) {40%} (34%) {+11%}
  • Chris Christie 33% (47%) [40%] (45%) / 30% (23%) [22%] (18%) {+3%}

Survey of 1,933 registered voters was conducted January 15-19, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 2.2 percentage points.  Party ID: 29% (31%) {32%} [35%] (32%) {33%} [34%] Democrat; 26% (26%) {26%} [24%] (23%) {27%} [25%] Republican; 36% (34%) {35%} [31%] (35%) {33%} [34%] Independent; 9% (9%) {7%} [9%] (9%) {7%} [7%] Other/Don’t know. Race: 74% (74%) {72%} [72%] White; 11% (12%) {12%} [12%] Black; 8% (7%) {7%} [8%] Hispanic; 7% (6%) {8%} [8%] Other.  Results from the poll conducted December 3-9, 2013 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted November 6-11, 2013 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 23-29, 2013 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted June 28 – July 8, 2013 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted May 22-28, 2013 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 27 – March 4, 2013 are in square brackets.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 11:21 am. Filed under 2016, Chris Christie, Hillary Clinton, Poll Watch

January 20, 2014

Poll Watch: Siena College New York 2016 Presidential Survey

Siena College New York 2016 Presidential Poll

  • Hillary Clinton (D) 60% (56%)
  • Chris Christie (R) 32% (40%)
  • Andrew Cuomo (D) 55% (42%)
  • Chris Christie (R) 35% (47%)

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

  • Hillary Clinton 68% (67%) / 29% (31%) {+39%}
  • Andrew Cuomo 66% (61%) / 28% (32%) {+38%}
  • Chris Christie 49% (63%) / 39% (25%) {+10%}

Survey of 808 registered voters was conducted January 12-16, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 3.4 percentage points. Party ID: 48% (47%) Democrat; 23% (23%) Republican; 26% (26%) Independent/Other. Political views: 45% (42%) Moderate; 26% (29%) Conservative; 26% (25%) Liberal. Results from the poll conducted November 11-14, 2013 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 11:43 am. Filed under 2016, Chris Christie, Hillary Clinton, Poll Watch

January 17, 2014

Poll Watch: PPP (D) North Carolina 2016 Presidential Survey

PPP (D) North Carolina 2016 Presidential Poll

  • Chris Christie (R) 43% {45%} [46%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 42% {42%} [43%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 46% {46%} [47%]
  • Jeb Bush (R) 44% {45%} [43%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 47% {48%} [50%] (52%)
  • Rand Paul (R) 43% {44%} [41%] (40%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 47% {49%} [51%]
  • Ted Cruz (R) 41% {41%} [39%]

Among Independents

  • Chris Christie (R) {50%} [46%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) {31%} [31%]
  • Jeb Bush (R) {44%} [41%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) {37%} [40%]
  • Rand Paul (R) {48%} [45%] (42%) 
  • Hillary Clinton (D) {42%} [42%] (48%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) {43%} [43%]
  • Ted Cruz (R) {41%} [40%]

Among Moderates

  • Hillary Clinton (D) 50% {51%} [54%]
  • Chris Christie (R) 32% {32%} [36%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 58% {59%} [61%]
  • Jeb Bush (R) 25% {30%} [26%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 60% {62%} [63%] (65%)
  • Rand Paul (R) 25% {25%} [26%] (25%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 61% {65%} [65%]
  • Ted Cruz (R) 23% {23%} [24%]

Among Men

  • Chris Christie (R) 49% {51%} [51%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 37% {35%} [37%]
  • Jeb Bush (R) 49% {51%} [46%] 
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 41% {38%} [42%]
  • Rand Paul (R) 49% {49%} [46%] (47%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 44% {43%} [46%] (46%)
  • Ted Cruz (R) 47% {47%} [44%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 45% {44%} [47%]

Among Women

  • Hillary Clinton (D) 47% {49%} [47%]
  • Chris Christie (R) 38% {40%} [42%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 51% {53%} [52%]
  • Jeb Bush (R) 38% {39%} [40%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 49% {53%} [54%] (57%)
  • Rand Paul (R) 38% {38%} [38%] (35%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 49% {54%} [55%]
  • Ted Cruz (R) 35% {37%} [34%]

Survey of 1,384 North Carolina voters was conducted January 9-12, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 2.6 percentage points. Party ID: 43% {43%} [45%] (43%) Democrat; 33% {34%} [33%] (34%) Republican; 23% {23%} [21%] (24%) Independent/Other. Political ideology: 32% {29%} [34%] (29%) Moderate; 25% {24%} [24%] (25%) Somewhat conservative; 17% {19%} [19%] (17%) Very conservative; 16% {16%} [11%] (17%) Somewhat liberal; 10% {12%} [13%] (12%) Very liberalResults from the poll conducted December 5-8, 2013 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 8-11, 2013 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 11-14, 2013 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 9:30 am. Filed under 2016, Chris Christie, Hillary Clinton, Poll Watch

January 16, 2014

Silly Excuses Do Chris Christie – and the GOP – No Good

With the eyes of the nation on Bridgegate, the factual and political scrutiny of this saga will tell us a lot about how Governor Chris Christie will weather the arrows that will inevitably be thrown his way during his likely 2016 presidential run.

So far, the findings have been mixed. Christie displayed enviable communication skills and exuded an aura of leadership during his marathon January 9th press conference. His popularity at home and in key presidential primary states remains remarkably solid for now, though some warning signs may already be cropping up.

At the same time, the end result will boil down to whether the crusade by Democrats and the media to find Christie’s fingerprints on Bridgegate will be successful – and we can only wait and see about that.

Ironically, the weakest links in the Christie defense come from many of his defenders. The following are the most oft repeated lines:

1)      Everybody does it.

This age old excuse is lame enough when used on behalf of anyone, but even more so for Chris Christie.

The governor focused virtually his entire 2012 Republican National Convention address on how he governs practically in a Democratic state, and later justified hating congressional Republicans due to their “putting politics ahead of their responsibilities.” The more holes that get punched into this narrative, the less national appeal he has.

Most of all, not everybody does this. It is probably indeed common politics in New Jersey and beyond to be less responsive to individuals and communities that do not support you than to those who do. However, proactively disrupting and endangering the lives of countless everyday people for no valid reason is virtually without precedent. 

2)      He fired everyone involved.

Swiftly issuing pink slips to your ethically or competence challenged close friends shows courage, leadership and political smarts that President Obama lacks in this area. However, this virtue turns into a shameful negative if these people were used as scapegoats to cover up the governor’s own involvement in or implicit encouragement of Bridgegate.

There is plenty of reason to assume that Bridgegate may have not been a one-off independent project from some rogue staffers: Christie runs a famously tight ship and Bridgegate involved several of his closest advisors. The governor and his team also have a long history of alleged heavy handed revenge for petty slights, such as threatening to use profanity during the RNC keynote address because of a cut intro video, and disinviting a Republican legislator from a press conference in his district because he mildly questioned the government’s response to a storm.

The governor’s changing timeline about when he learned about Bridgegate and his reported efforts to soften the investigation do not help his credibility either.

3)      It’s not as bad as Obama’s IRS scandal or Benghazi.

Two wrongs never make a right, and Republicans had better have a more effective 2016 platform than “We’re less corrupt than the other side.”

Furthermore, a presidential candidate’s character and behavior while in lower office can give us a great clue as to how he or she would behave in the highest office in the land. It is not much of a stretch to say that someone who’d be comfortable inconveniencing and endangering “the children of Buono voters” and countless everyday citizens for no valid reason would also be comfortable using the existing powers of the federal government against known political opponents.

Bill Clinton did not fool around in the Oval Office until he occupied that office either.

4)      The media is not fair.

Yes, the mainstream media showed significantly more curiosity in a Republican governor’s local scandal than in the more serious controversies involving their adored Democratic president. Also, water is wet.

If Republicans are counting on their desired media coverage in order to score national victory, they’re in deep trouble. Whoever the Republican nominee will be in 2016 will receive the expected media treatment and the candidate and party had better be ready. The fewer substantive weapons the candidate will give the media to attack them with, the better chances he or she will have to win.

In conclusion, Governor Christie deserves accolades for all the right moves he has recently made, as well as the presumption of innocence afforded to all Americans. The people of New Jersey and the nation deserve a fair and thorough investigation into the matter, and let the facts lead us where they may.

However, shouting vain excuses from the rooftops does Chris Christie and the Republican Party absolutely no good in the long term.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

Simon Blum is a freelance writer and journalist specializing in political analysis and communication. You can follow Simon on Twitter @sbpundit.

by @ 8:30 pm. Filed under Chris Christie, Opinion

January 15, 2014

Poll Watch: NBC News-Marist 2016 National Presidential Survey

NBC News-Marist 2016 National Presidential Poll

  • Hillary Clinton (D) 50% {48%} [47%] (46%)
  • Chris Christie (R) 37% {45%} [41%] (43%)

Among Independents

  • Chris Christie (R) 40% {40%} [42%] (40%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 40% {52%} [46%] (43%)

Among Moderates

  • Hillary Clinton (D) 57% {52%} [46%] (54%)
  • Chris Christie (R) 31% {44%} [40%] (35%)

Among Men

  • Hillary Clinton (D) 44% {43%} [49%] (45%)
  • Chris Christie (R) 42% {52%} [41%] (46%)

Among Women

  • Hillary Clinton (D) 56% {53%} [46%] (47%)
  • Chris Christie (R) 33% {39%} [41%] (40%)

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

  • Hillary Clinton 51% / 39% {+12%}
  • Chris Christie 29% / 32% {-3%}

Do you think New Jersey Governor Chris Christie comes across more as a bully or a strong leader?

  • Strong leader 49%
  • Bully 26%

(If heard about GWB traffic story) Governor Christie has said he had nothing to do with creating these traffic jams on the George Washington Bridge and that it was the poor judgment of staff whom he has fired. Do you think Governor Christie is mostly telling the truth or mostly not telling the truth?

  • Telling the truth 52%
  • Not telling the truth 34% 

From what you know about this story, do you like Governor Christie more, like him less, or does it not really change your opinion of Governor Christie?

  • Like him more 5%
  • Like him less 20%
  • Does not really change opinion 68%

National survey of 1,039 registered voters was conducted January 12-14, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 3.0 percentage points. Party ID: 34% {31%} [34%] (35%) Democrat; 25% {27%} [25%] (28%) Republican; 39% {41%} [37%] (35%) Independent.  Results from the poll conducted December 3-5, 2013 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 15-18, 2013 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 25-27, 2013 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 4:38 pm. Filed under 2016, Chris Christie, Poll Watch

Poll Watch: Quinnipiac New Jersey Survey on Governor Chris Christie

Quinnipiac New Jersey Poll on Gov. Chris Christie

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Chris Christie is handling his job as Governor? 

  • Approve 55% [68%] (69%) {67%} [70%] (74%) {74%} [72%] (56%) {53%} [54%] (57%) {59%} [55%] (53%) {56%} [58%] (47%) {44%} [47%] (52%) {51%} [51%] (44%)
  • Disapprove 38% [26%] (27%) {24%} [23%] (22%) {21%} [21%] (38%) {42%} [39%] (38%) {36%} [38%] (39%) {38%} [38%] (46%) {47%} [46%] (40%) {38%} [36%] (43%)

Among Democrats

  • Approve 36% [51%] (41%) {46%} [48%] (56%) {56%} [52%](28%) {22%} [27%] (30%) {30%} [27%] (25%) {28%} [29%] (17%) {17%} [17%] (27%) {22%} [24%] (18%)
  • Disapprove 55% [43%] (52%) {43%} [40%] (38%) {37%} [39%] (65%) {74%} [65%] (63%) {64%} [61%] (64%) {66%} [67%] (76%) {75%} [75%] (66%) {68%} [63%] (67%)

Among Republicans

  • Approve 81% [90%] (96%) {91%} [93%] (94%) {93%} [95%] (90%) {87%} [87%] (87%) {92%} [86%] (87%) {90%} [88%] (84%) {76%} [80%] (82%) {79%} [75%] (75%)
  • Disapprove 16% [6%] (3%) {5%} [6%] (5%) {4%} [4%] (7%) {11%} [10%] (11%) {6%} [11%] (9%) {8%} [11%] (12%) {15%} [16%] (11%) {12%} [13%] (14%)

Among Independents

  • Approve 56% [70%] (78%) {73%} [73%] (77%) {78%} [77%] (62%) {57%} [60%] (61%) {64%} [59%] (54%) {62%} [65%] (53%) {47%} [55%] (55%) {56%} [61%] (50%)
  • Disapprove 37% [24%] (18%) {19%} [21%] (19%) {18%} [16%] (32%) {35%} [34%] (32%) {32%} [36%] (37%) {31%} [30%] (39%) {44%} [36%] (36%) {32%} [29%] (40%)

Among Men

  • Approve 54% [67%] (71%) {72%} [75%] (82%) {79%} [75%] (62%) {62%} [60%] (61%) {67%} [62%] (60%) {60%} [65%] (58%) {53%} [56%] (58%) {58%} [63%] (53%)
  • Disapprove 39% [28%] (26%) {21%} [19%] (15%) {18%} [19%] (33%) {34%} [34%] (34%) {30%} [32%] (34%) {35%} [32%] (36%) {39%} [38%] (35%) {31%} [27%] (36%)

Among Women

  • Approve 55% [69%] (66%) {63%} [65%] (67%) {69%} [70%] (50%) {46%} [49%] (53%) {52%} [49%] (47%) {52%} [51%](37%) {36%} [38%] (46%) {45%} [40%] (36%)
  • Disapprove 37% [25%] (27%) {27%} [26%] (28%) {24%} [23%] (42%) {49%} [43%] (41%) {42%} [44%] (43%) {42%} [44%](55%) {54%} [53%] (44%) {45%} [44%] (50%)

Would you say that Chris Christie is honest and trustworthy or not?

  • Yes 51%
  • No 41% 

Would you say that Chris Christie cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not?

  • Yes 55%
  • No 41% 

Would you say that Chris Christie has strong leadership qualities or not?

  • Yes 74%
  • No 23% 

Would you describe Governor Christie as being more of a bully or more of a leader?

  • Leader 54%
  • Bully 40% 

Do you believe Governor Christie can work with Democrats in the state legislature to get things done or don’t you think so?

  • Yes 67%
  • No 28% 

Have you heard or read anything about the controversy surrounding the September traffic jam on the George Washington Bridge?

  • Yes 93%
  • No 7% 

(If heard or read anything about the controversy surrounding the traffic jam on the GWB)

Do you believe aides to Governor Christie deliberately caused this traffic jam as retribution because a local mayor would not endorse the governor for reelection or don’t you think so?

  • Yes 62%
  • No 23% 

Do you believe Christie personally ordered the traffic jam or not?

  • Yes 22%
  • No 66%

Do you believe Christie was aware that his aides were causing this traffic jam or do you believe his aides were acting without his knowledge?

  • Aides acted alone 50%
  • Christie was aware 41% 

Survey of 1,207 New Jersey voters was conducted January 10-13, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 2.8 percentage points.  Party ID: 32% [33%] (34%) {35%} [33%] (33%) {35%} [36%] (37%) {33%} Democrat; 21% [23%] (23%) {23%} [24%] (25%) {23%} [23%] (25%) {24%} Republican; 39% [35%] (37%) {37%} [37%] (36%) {36%} [35%] (34%) {37%} Independent; 7% [9%] (7%) {5%} [7%] (7%) {5%} [5%] (4%) {6%} Other/Don’t know.  Results from the poll conducted July 2-7, 2013 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted June 7-9, 2013 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted April 19-22, 2013 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 19-24, 2013 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conductedFebruary 13-17, 2013 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted January 15-21, 2013 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 19-25, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted October 10-14, 2012 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted August 27 – September 2, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 9-15, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 9-14, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted April 3-9, 2012 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted February 21-27, 2012are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 10-16, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted November 9-14, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted October 5-10, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conductedAugust 9-15, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conductedJune 14-19, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conductedApril 12-18, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 3-7, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted November 3-8, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 9-17, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted June 10-15, 2010 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 9:51 am. Filed under 2016, Chris Christie, Poll Watch

January 13, 2014

Poll Watch: Monmouth University/Asbury Park Press New Jersey Survey on Governor Chris Christie

Monmouth University/Asbury Park Press NJ Poll on Gov. Christie

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Chris Christie is doing as governor?

  • Approve 58% [65%] (63%) {65%} [70%] (69%) {55%} [53%] (50%) {55%} [55%] (50%) {46%} [49%] (44%) {45%} [42%] (31%)
  • Disapprove 35% [27%] (24%) {26%} [16%] (22%) {36%} [35%] (38%) {37%} [37%] (41%) {49%} [41%] (40%) {43%} [44%] (15%)

Among Democrats

  • Approve 38% [47%] (47%) {52%} [58%] (57%) {30%} [26%] (33%) {35%} [32%] (36%) {22%} [27%] (22%) {23%} [19%] (21%)
  • Disapprove 52% [45%] (37%) {39%} [26%] (30%) {57%} [60%] (55%) {56%} [59%] (55%) {72%} [61%] (58%) {65%} [68%] (24%)
Among Republicans
  • Approve 89% [85%] (89%) {86%} [88%] (85%) {90%} [82%] (74%) {79%} [84%] (78%) {75%} [80%] (71%) {80%} [65%] (52%)
  • Disapprove 7% [9%] (7%) {10%} [7%] (7%) {4%} [10%] (18%) {16%} [12%] (15%) {24%} [14%] (22%) {14%} [19%] (4%)
Among Independents
  • Approve 62% [73%] (64%) {64%} [71%] (68%) {55%} [57%] (54%) {55%} [58%] (44%) {53%} [49%] (49%) {45%} [49%] (35%)
  • Disapprove 30% [17%] (21%) {24%} [14%] (20%) {34%} [31%] (28%) {34%} [34%] (46%) {41%} [38%] (31%) {41%} [34%] (13%)

Among Men 

  • Approve 62% [70%] (62%) {61%} [69%] (68%) {61%} [58%] (59%) {56%} [54%] (52%)
  • Disapprove 28% [20%] (23%) {27%} [18%] (19%) {31%} [32%] (28%) {33%} [36%] (37%)

Among Women

  • Approve 57% [61%] (61%) {65%} [70%] (66%) {47%} [45%] (43%) {48%} [53%] (45%)
  • Disapprove 36% [30%] (25%) {26%} [16%] (23%) {40%} [40%] (42%) {42%} [40%] (48%)
Survey of 470 registered voters was conducted January 10-12, 2014.  The margin of error is +/- 4.5 percentage points.  Party ID: 38% [37%] (37%) {39%} [37%] (37%) {35%} [34%] (37%) {36%} [34%] (35%) {35%} [35%] (35%) {38%} [40%] Democrat; 22% [24%] (23%) {23%} [23%] (23%) {24%} [23%] (23%) {23%} [20%] (22%) {21%} [22%] (22%) {22%} [22%] Republican; 40% [39%] (40%) {38%} [40%] (40%) {41%} [43%] (40%) {41%} [46%] (43%) {44%} [43%] (43%) {40%} [38%] Independent.  Results from the poll conducted December 4-8, 2013 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 6-10, 2013 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted April 11-14, 2013 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 6-10, 2013 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 29 – December 2, 2012 are in parentheses.   Results from the poll conducted September 19-23, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 18-22, 2012 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted April 11-15, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted January 31 – February 4, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted October 5-9, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 3-8, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted May 12-16, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 2-7, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 15-19, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted July 7-11, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 7-11, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 27-31, 2010 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 2:48 pm. Filed under Chris Christie, Poll Watch

January 10, 2014

Poll Watch: Rasmussen Survey on Chris Christie and “Bridgegate” Scandal

Poll Watch: Rasmussen Survey on Chris Christie and “Bridgegate” Scandal

If it is proven that Christie approved of retaliation against an elected official who refused to support him, should he resign as governor?

  • 56% – Yes
  • 29% – No
  • 15% – Not Sure

Because of the Fort Lee incident, are you more likely or less likely to vote for Christie to be president in 2016? Or will it have no impact on your voting decision?

  • 39% – Less Likely
  • 14% – More Likely
  • 39% – No Impact

The state survey of 800 Likely Voters in New Jersey was conducted January 9, 2014 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

Note: The full results of the poll have not been released to non-subscribers. The results posted above are ones where the full question with breakdowns are known.

Inside the numbers:

Most New Jersey voters think it’s likely Governor Chris Christie was aware of the Fort Lee traffic lane closures before they happened and should resign if this is proven. But voters in the state still think the governor is doing a better job than President Obama.

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey finds that 54% of Likely New Jersey Voters believe it’s at least somewhat likely that Christie was aware that traffic lanes onto the George Washington Bridge were being closed as retaliation for the mayor of Fort Lee’s refusal to support the governor’s reelection. Thirty-six percent (36%) think it’s unlikely Christie was aware beforehand. This includes 30% who say it’s Very Likely he was aware and 17% who say it’s Not At All Likely. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

Fifty-six percent (56%) of New Jersey voters believe Christie should resign if it is proven that he approved of retaliation against an elected official who refused to support him. Just 29% disagree, while 15% are not sure.

Not surprisingly, 75% of Democrats think it’s likely Christie, a Republican, was aware of the Fort Lee retaliation beforehand, but just 34% of GOP voters and 46% of unaffiliated voters agree. Seventy-three percent (73%) of Democrats and 52% of unaffiliated voters believe Christie should resign if he was aware of the lane closures beforehand; 50% of Republicans disagree.

Thirty-nine percent (39%) of all voters in the state say they are less likely to vote for Christie to be president in 2016 because of the Fort Lee incident. Fourteen percent (14%) are more likely to vote for him. Another 39% say the incident will have no impact on their voting decision.

Seventy-one percent (71%) think it’s likely that some members of the governor’s staff also retaliated against other political officials who refused to support his reelection, with 41% who believe it’s Very Likely. Only 17% feel it’s not very or Not At All Likely that other officials were targeted for failing to support Christie’s reelection bid.

This survey was taken last night following Christie’s lengthy press conference in which he apologized for the Fort Lee incident in early September and announced that he had fired the top staff member who was involved. He repeatedly insisted that he was unaware that the lane closures were anything more than a routine traffic study until he read media reports yesterday morning citing e-mails in which the staff member apparently initiated the lane closures as political retaliation. The governor said he is still investigating the matter.

Eighty-one percent (81%) of Garden State voters agree that staff members who ordered those traffic lane closures as political retaliation should be fired. A plurality (47%) also believes those staff members should be criminally prosecuted, but 31% disagree.

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it’s in the news, it’s in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

The state survey of 800 Likely Voters in New Jersey was conducted January 9, 2014 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Fifty-five percent (55%) of New Jersey voters still hold a favorable opinion of Christie, down from 63% last October prior to his overwhelming reelection. Forty-four percent (44%) view him unfavorably. This includes 29% with a Very Favorable opinion of the governor and 22% with a Very Unfavorable one.

Sixty percent (60%) approve of the job Christie is doing, with 29% who Strongly Approve. By comparison, 52% approve of the president’s job performance, including 28% who Strongly Approve.

Thirty-three percent (33%) of voters in the state still think Christie is more ethical than most politicians. Just 21% feel he is less ethical, while 39% say his level of ethics is about the same as his peers.

Forty-one percent (41%) believe most elected officials use their offices to help those who support them and punish those who oppose them. Twenty-eight percent (28%) don’t believe most elected officials act this way, but slightly more (31%) are not sure.

Forty-four percent (44%) of New Jersey voters said in June of last year that they would vote for Christie in 2016 if he is the Republican presidential nominee.

Among Republicans in the state, 32% say they are more likely to vote for Christie in the 2016 presidential race because of the Fort Lee incident, while 20% are less likely to do so. But 36% of unaffiliated voters say they are less likely to vote for him now.

Prior to the Fort Lee controversy, the presidential race was a dead heat. Forty-three percent (43%) of voters said if the 2016 presidential election were held today, they would chose Democrat Hillary Clinton, while 41% would opt for Christie instead.

by @ 1:36 pm. Filed under Chris Christie

January 9, 2014

Bridgegate Press Conference: Chris Christie “Heartbroken”, Terminates Aide Responsible

The New York Daily News has the details:

An unusually contrite Gov. Christie emerged Thursday to offer a statewide apology for the George Washington Bridge traffic scandal, as three government bodies, including the FBI, launched investigations into the unfolding saga.

“I come out here to today to apologize to the people of New Jersey,” Christie said at the beginning of a marathon news conference during which he disclosed he dumped two top advisers that were involved in the affair.

“I apologize to the people of Fort Lee. I am embarrassed and humiliated by the conduct of some of the people on my team.”

The governor then announced the immediate dismissal of Bridget Anne Kelly, the top aide linked directly to lane closures meant to retaliate against Fort Lee Mayor Mark Sokolich.
The North Jersey Democrat’s purported sin: Sokolich failed to endorse the GOP incumbent during his reelection campaign last year.

“I terminated her employment because she lied to me,” Christie said bluntly of Kelly.

Full story here.

by @ 7:06 pm. Filed under Chris Christie

January 8, 2014

Christie Issues Statement on Lane Closings Scandal

From the official release:

What I’ve seen today for the first time is unacceptable. I am outraged and deeply saddened to learn that not only was I misled by a member of my staff, but this completely inappropriate and unsanctioned conduct was made without my knowledge. One thing is clear: this type of behavior is unacceptable and I will not tolerate it because the people of New Jersey deserve better. This behavior is not representative of me or my Administration in any way, and people will be held responsible for their actions.

by @ 4:31 pm. Filed under Chris Christie

Christie Aide Implicated in New Jersey Traffic Closing Scandal

NorthJersey.com has the story:

Private messages between Governor’s Christie’s deputy chief of staff and two of his top executives at the Port Authority reveal a vindictive effort to create “traffic problems in Fort Lee” by shutting lanes to the George Washington Bridge and apparent pleasure at the resulting gridlock.

The messages are replete with references and insults to Fort Lee’s mayor, who had failed to endorse Christie for re-election and they chronicle how they tried to reach Port Authority officials in a vain effort to eliminate the paralyzing gridlock that overwhelmed his town of 35,000 which sits in the shadow of the bridge, the world’s busiest.

Over at Hot Air, Allahpundit details the implications of the report:

The theory, which isn’t clearly confirmed by the e-mails, is that Christie’s office ordered the lane closings as retaliation against the mayor of Fort Lee for refusing to endorse him. Once the lanes closed, traffic in Fort Lee would back up — for hours at a time — and the mayor would be under siege from the locals. Why Christie would have cared about anyone’s endorsement when he was consistently up 20+ points in the governor’s race at the time, I have no idea. But if you’re looking for evidence that the guy, or at least his staff, enjoys bullying people even when there’s little to be gained by it, there you go.

What will be the lasting effects of this story? It’s too early to say… However, at least some media analysts are predicting that the story won’t go away any time soon:

by @ 12:33 pm. Filed under 2016, Chris Christie

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