April 24, 2012

And the Winner Is…

First, yesterday’s results:

Chris Christie

Mean: 7.66

Variance:  4.79

Jon Kyl

Mean: 5.06

Variance: 3.78

Marco Rubio

Mean: 7.88

Variance: 2.98

Jeb Bush

Mean: 5.91

Variance: 5.93

And now the Final Standings.  Note:  A few of the numbers of past contestants have changed because I checked my work and discovered basic arithmetic mistakes.  First, the weighted Veep Strength rankings (calculation method here).

Veep Strength

1.  Paul Ryan: 8.57

2.  Marco Rubio: 7.48

3.  Bobby Jindal: 7.24

4.  Chris Christie: 6.93

5.  Bob McDonnell: 5.98

6.  Tim Pawlenty: 5.66

7.  Mitch Daniels: 5.52

8.  Rob Portman: 5.29

9.  Pat Toomey: 5.27

10.  Luis Fortuño: 4.81

11.  John Thune:  4.07

12.  Jeb Bush: 3.86

13.  Mike Huckabee: 3.59

14.  Jon Kyl: 3.22

15.  Cathy McMorris Rodgers: 2.44

16.  Richard Burr: 1.52

Mean Rankings

1.  Paul Ryan: 8.72

2.  Marco Rubio: 7.88

3.  Bobby Jindal: 7.87

4.  Chris Christie: 7.66

5.  Mitch Daniels: 6.72

6.  Bob McDonnell: 6.59

7.  Tim Pawlenty: 6.43

8.  Luis Fortuño: 6.28

9.  Rob Portman: 6.20

10.  Pat Toomey: 6.05

11.  Jeb Bush: 5.91

12.  Mike Huckabee: 5.84

13.  John Thune: 5.38

14.  Jon Kyl: 5.06

15.  Cathy McMorris Rodgers: 4.68

16.  Richard Burr: 3.60

 

Analysis:

Paul Ryan is the runaway victor of the Race42012 Veepstakes.  Below him, Rubio, Jindal, and Christie form a clear second-tier.  Below them, Daniels, McDonnell, and Pawlenty form a clear third-tier. 

-Matthew E. Miller can be contacted at Obilisk18@yahoo.com

by @ 7:04 am. Filed under Bobby Jindal, Veep Watch

April 20, 2012

Results From Thursday’s Veep Poll

Yesterday, I asked you to rate how content you’d be if John Thune, Bobby Jindal, Mike Huckabee and Mitch Daniels were selected as Romney’s running-mate.  I put the data in a spreadsheet and calculated two numbers for each candidate: the mean (average) and the variance (how much the numbers were spread out).  Here are the results:

John Thune:

Mean: 5.38

Variance: 3.05

Bobby Jindal:

Mean: 7.87

Variance: 4.64

Mike Huckabee:

Mean: 5.84

Variance: 6.32

Mitch Daniels:

Mean: 6.72

Variance:  5.02

And now, the weighted Veep Strength standings, for the first three rounds (see yesterday’s post for calculation method).

Veep Strength

1.  Paul Ryan: 8.57

2.  Bobby Jindal: 7.22

3.  Bob McDonnell: 5.98

4.  Tim Pawlenty: 5.66

5.  Mitch Daniels: 5.52

6.  Pat Toomey: 5.26

7.  Rob Portman: 5.13

8.  Luis Fortuño: 4.78

9.  Mike Huckabee: 4.56

10.  John Thune:  4.07

11.  Cathy McMorris Rodgers: 2.43

12.  Richard Burr: 1.52

And the flat mean rankings:
1.  Paul Ryan: 8.72

2.  Bobby Jindal: 7.87

3.  Mitch Daniels: 6.72

4.  Bob McDonnell: 6.59

5.  Tim Pawlenty: 6.43

6.  Luis Fortuño: 6.28

7.  Rob Portman: 6.20

8.  Pat Toomey: 6.05

9.  Mike Huckabee: 5.84

10.  John Thune: 5.38

11.  Cathy McMorris Rodgers: 4.68

12.  Richard Burr: 3.60

Note:  Due to light weekend traffic, the final round of this poll will be posted on Monday around 1. 

by @ 7:00 am. Filed under 2012 Misc., Bobby Jindal, Veep Watch

April 19, 2012

Veep Poll: The Third Round

The second round of Veep Polling has passed (results here) and we’re moving on to the third round.

If John Thune was selected as Romney’s VP, how content would you be on a scale from 1 to 10 (1=You’d stay home, 10=You’d canvas the country for Romney)?

If Bobby Jindal was selected as Romney’s VP, how content would you be on a scale from 1 to 10 (1=You’d stay home, 10=You’d canvas the country for Romney)?

If Mike Huckabee was selected as Romney’s VP, how content would you be on a scale from 1 to 10 (1=You’d stay home, 10=You’d canvas the country for Romney)?

If Mitch Daniels was selected as Romney’s VP, how content would you be on a scale from 1 to 10 (1=You’d stay home, 10=You’d canvas the country for Romney)?

Example (mine):

John Thune- 5

Bobby Jindal- 10

Mike Huckabee- 6

Mitch Daniels- 8

Note:  I realize that some of you may not be overly familiar with some of these candidates, but please try to provide a response for each, or I will not be able to compile the data.  Lack of familiarity (which would likely lead to average numbers) is a response in of itself.

-Matthew E. Miller can be contacted at Obilisk18@yahoo.com

by @ 12:00 pm. Filed under Bobby Jindal, Mike Huckabee, Mitch Daniels, Veep Watch

April 14, 2012

The Veeps: Social Media Edition

As a sidebar to my ongoing Veep series, I thought I’d see how the leading Veep contenders stacked up on Facebook, Twitter, and Youtube.

First, some terms.

Facebook terms:

“Likes”-  The number of people who like a candidate.  A good proxy for how well-known the candidate is.

“People Talking About This”- The number of people who have interacted with a candidate’s page in the past week.  This is a good proxy for how “hot” a candidate is, or how active he or she has been on facebook.

Twitter terms:

Followers-  The number of people following this candidate’s twitter feed.  A good proxy for how well-known the candidate is.

Following- The number of people this candidate is following.

(I’ll also note how many “tweets” each candidate has made in the past month).

Youtube terms:

Subscribers- The number of people who subscribe to the politician’s official youtube channel.

Video views- The number of views that candidate’s official videos have received.

Without further ado.

Marco Rubio:

257,861 “likes”

12,227 “Talking About This”

85,507 Twitter Followers

Following 2,814 Twitter Users

24 Tweets in the past month

3,482 Youtube Subscribers

1,947,264 Video Views

Paul Ryan:

94,813 “likes”

6,727 “Talking About This”

121,106 Twitter Followers

Following 1 Twitter User

45 Tweets in the past month

2,624 Youtube Subscribers

1,155,206 Video Views*

*Congressman Ryan’s most viewed videos come under the House Budget Committee’s Channel.  These views are not included in this total.

Bobby Jindal:

151,683 “likes”

2,900 “Talking About This”

74,011 Twitter Followers

Following 21,978 Twitter Users

38 Tweets in the past month

60 Youtube Subscribers

25,421 Video Views

Rob Portman:

27,243 “likes”

906 “Talking About This”

11,501 Twitter Followers

Following 1,674 Twitter Users

122 Tweets in the past month

104 Youtube Subscribers

34,924 Video Views

Chris Christie:

57,681 “likes”

1,543 “Talking About This”

107,333 Twitter Followers

Following 388 Twitter Users

111 Tweets in the past month

4,553 Youtube Subscribers

4,366,169 Video Views

 

Facebook Winner:

Marco Rubio

Facebook Loser:

Rob Portman

Twitter Winner(s):

Paul Ryan and Chris Christie

Twitter Loser:

Rob Portman

Youtube Winner:

Chris Christie

Youtube Loser:

Bobby Jindal

-Matthew E. Miller can be contacted at Obilisk18@yahoo.com

by @ 10:35 am. Filed under 2012 Misc., Bobby Jindal, Chris Christie, Veep Watch

April 11, 2012

New Veep Video Series: Jindal Edition

As part of the ongoing Veepstakes, I’m going to start culling clips from longer speeches/debates of our leading VP contenders.  Because of time constraints, I’ll be focusing on the candidates I personally think are most promising.  If anyone feels like performing the same exercise for their personal favorites, by all means do so, and you can send me the clipped videos (email below) which I’ll post here.  We need to take our role as citizen activists seriously so watch these videos, if you can.  They are obviously meant to represent highlights but are no less illuminating for that.  Hopefully, someone at Team Romney takes notice and we can perform a useful function in the Veep vetting process.  Anyway, here are three clips from a Young Americans Foundation speech Jindal gave after the 2010 mid-term elections.  Take a look.

The Oil Spill

Health Care

Patriotism

-Matthew E. Miller can be contacted at Obilisk18@yahoo.com

by @ 10:26 am. Filed under Bobby Jindal, Veep Watch

April 10, 2012

More Jindal Buzz

Over the weekend, George Will made the case for two potential VP’s: Bobby Jindal and Paul Ryan.  Here he is on Jindal:

Barack Obama’s intellectual sociopathy — his often breezy and sometimes loutish indifference to truth — should no longer startle. It should, however, influence Mitt Romney’s choice of a running mate

So Romney’s running mate should have intellectual firepower, born of immersion in policy complexities, sufficient to refute Obama’s meretricious claims and derelictions of duty…

Louisiana’s Gov. Bobby Jindal, 40, was a 20-year-old congressional staffer when he authored a substantial report on reforming Medicare financing. At 24, he became head of Louisiana’s Department of Health and Hospitals, with 12,000 employees and 40 percent of the state budget. Back in Washington at 26, he was executive director of the National Bipartisan Commission on the Future of Medicare. In 1999, he became president of Louisiana’s state university system, which has 80,000 students. In 2001, he served as an assistant secretary of health and human services. He became governor after three years in Congress.

Faux realists will belabor Romney with unhistorical cleverness, urging him to choose a running mate who supposedly will sway this or that demographic cohort or carry a particular state. But are, for example, Hispanics nationwide such a homogeneous cohort that, say, those who came to Colorado from Mexico will identify with a son of Cuban immigrants to Florida (Sen. Marco Rubio)? Do these realists know that, according to exit polls, Nevada’s Hispanic Gov. Brian Sandoval, a Republican, won only about a third of the Hispanic vote in 2010?…

For the next decade, American politics will turn on this truth: Slowing the growth of the entitlement state is absolutely necessary and intensely unpopular. In this situation, which is ripe for a demagogue such as the Huey Long from Chicago’s Hyde Park, Romney’s choice of running mate should promise something Washington now lacks — adult supervision.

As regular readers know, Jindal and Ryan basically start and end my list, so I’m pleased to see Will onboard.  Another prominent Republican- strategist Mark McKinnon, who worked on both the Bush and McCain campaigns- makes the case for Jindal.

The guy, I think, is kind of an outsider that people should keep an eye is Bobby Jindal from Louisiana, ’cause he’s – he’d be sort of an outside pick, a bit of a long shot that would excite people because, you know, he’s of Indian descent. Conservatives love him. But he also has an amazing track record on health care issues. I mean he worked in HHS earlier on in his career, so you’d be an interesting pick and what I think would excite people and be a little bit different.

Jindal received two other nods worth mentioning: one is Begala’s dismissive “Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal might be a good choice, if he’s upped his game from his 2009 response to the State of the Union address, which he apparently did in character as Kenneth the Page from 30 Rock” and the other comes an Eyewitness News “Political Analyst”.  When asked about the recent Jindal buzz, here’s what he had to say:

“I don’t think its very realistic at all. There are a number of other higher profile, more nationally profiled, well-versed, frankly better debaters who bring more to the table and more to the team,” said DuBos.

Four years ago, Jindal was considered as a possible running mate for McCain. DuBos said the 40-year-old Governor isn’t ready politically to step out onto the national stage.

The political analyst said a perfect example was Jindal’s rebuttal to the President’s State of The Union Address in 2009.

Notice the lazy reference to the 2009 State of the Union rebuttal when discussing Jindal’s prospects.  This particular fellow doesn’t even seem to be trying.  Jindal’s not “well-versed”?  He’s a “bad debater”?  Because of his State of the Union rebuttal?  I’ll leave you with the video of a speech which actually resembles what a Vice Presidential Nominee Jindal would be doing most of the time.

This is a speech Jindal gave at a Rick Perry rally.  Be forewarned: somewhere around minute six, you may have an odd thought; this Rick Perry fella sounds like a real fine choice.  Why isn’t he running, again?  Dismiss this thought and focus on the man compelling the thought: a man making a more convincing case for Perry than Perry ever made for himself.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P3Di2SNtmHg[/youtube]

I’m going to propose a theory: this speech is more relevant, to whether or not Bobby would make a good running-mate, than his State of the Union rebuttal.  Of course, I know I’m taking a risk, because everyone knows that if you’re bad at delivering slow speeches, off a teleprompter, in an empty ballroom, you’re “not ready for the prime-time”.  I can’t help it.   I’ve always been a rebel.

– Matthew E. Miller can be contacted at Obilisk18@yahoo.com

by @ 8:40 am. Filed under Bobby Jindal

April 5, 2012

Jindal’s Triumph

Recall petitions were filed for Jindal and the House Speaker, and thousands of teachers protested at the Capitol during 50 hours of passionate debate but, scarcely 3 weeks into the legislative session, the centerpiece bills of Bobby Jindal’s landmark education reforms have cleared both houses and are headed to his desk.

Gov. Bobby Jindal triumphed Thursday in his bid to embark on an historic overhaul of public education in Louisiana, receiving final House passage of his centerpiece proposals.

In a state where student performance lags the nation, the complex bills will make it harder for teachers to gain tenure while establishing a statewide voucher program for private school tuition and multiplying the ways to create charter schools. The bills also lessen local school board authority in hiring and firing decisions, expand online schools and restructure public financing of education.

“We want to make sure that every child has the opportunity to get a great education,” Jindal said. “These bills coming to my desk are a great step forward for Louisiana’s children.”

Critics promised lawsuits. Final backing from lawmakers came over the opposition of teacher unions, local school board leaders and several thousand teachers who protested at the Capitol in recent weeks, claiming the governor had launched a “war against teachers” and public education….

After the votes, Louisiana Superintendent of Education John White thanked lawmakers “for having the courage to help us change.”

“If we want to change outcomes for our children, we adults have to change how we do our work,” said White, who shepherded the governor’s proposals through the session.

The bills give broad authority to White, his department and the state education board to determine performance standards for the new programs and to devise how they will run.

The package of legislation will expand statewide a voucher program now in effect in New Orleans, called the Student Scholarships for Educational Excellence Program.

Tax dollars will be used to send some children in schools rated C, D or F to private and parochial schools. The program will be limited by availability in private schools and to low- and moderate-income families, with priority given to children in D and F schools.

White said he will quickly begin contacting private school leaders to determine their interest. He estimates about 2,000 new vouchers could be handed out for children to attend private school in the fall of 2012.

“Parents will have applications in their hands later this spring for scholarships,” he said.

The measure also creates new paths to start up charter schools, which are publicly funded but run with broad autonomy from state and local education officials. Nonprofit corporations with an “educational mission” will be allowed to authorize charter schools, rather than just the state or local school boards.

It also will be easier for the state to take over a failing school.

Local school board authority will be lessened, strengthening the hand of superintendents and principals in issues of hiring and firing and giving the state education superintendent more review of local school board contracts with their own district leaders…

Anyone without tenure or who loses it because of an ineffective rating would need to be rated “highly effective” for five of six consecutive years in order to reach the job protection.

Statewide salary schedules for teachers will be scrapped. Teachers won’t lose any of their current pay, but raises will be tied to decisions by individual principals and school leaders. Seniority won’t be a primary factor in layoff decisions.

For breadth and scope, these reforms track neatly with the Daniels’ education package of 2011.  Approximately 380k of the state’s 727k students (or 53%) would be eligible to receive vouchers.  This is slightly lower than the 60% that qualify under Daniels’ reform but under the Daniels reform, vouchers would be capped for 1st through 8th graders, while all eligible students would receive the full per student funding amount in Jindal’s package.  Additionally, a second, less controversial, voucher bill is wending its way through the legislature, which would further expand opportunities.

With a 15-4 vote, the House Ways and Means Committee approved Rep. Kirk Talbot’s House Bill 969, which is modeled after a tuition-donation program that Florida enacted a decade ago under then-Gov. Jeb Bush. The full House could vote on the plan as early as next week.

The bill would allow corporations and individuals to give unlimited amounts of money to independent, nonprofit groups that would, in turn, grant private-school tuition scholarships to students who live in households at or below 250 percent of the federal poverty level. That’s about $55,000 for a family of four.

The contributor could then receive a rebate, paid from the state general fund, equivalent to the amount paid in tuition. The scholarship-granting entity would be able to keep up to 5 percent for administrative costs. The contribution could reduce a filer’s taxable income, but the rebate would later be counted as taxable income…

In Talbot’s bill, a student’s parent or guardian would apply to the third-party group, such as a Catholic diocese or an independent entity. The third party would pay the grant to the parents, who would then endorse the check over to the school. The MFP voucher would be paid directly by a local system to the private school. In both approaches, participation among private schools would be voluntary.

The Carter bill opens MFP vouchers only to students in public schools that are scored either as a C, D or F under the state accountability metrics. Talbot’s bill would attach no such requirement, leaving eligibility beyond the income restriction to the third party.

In the Talbot bill, aid for kindergarteners through the 8th grade would be capped at 80 percent of the state portion of a local district’s MFP per-pupil financing. The cap would be 90 percent of the state MFP portion for high school. The Carter bill would obligate the entire MFP financing from the state and the local tax base.

Talbot said his bill, with scholarships likely to fall in the $4,500 to $5,000 range, “would have parents have to put some skin in the game” in areas where the cost of tuition exceeds the value of the voucher.

Taken together, these reforms end the public education monopoly in Louisiana and drastically increase teacher accountability.  Not bad for the first three weeks of a three month legislative session.  Next on the agenda for Jindal?  Pension reform.

by @ 8:07 pm. Filed under Bobby Jindal

March 26, 2012

The Case for Bayou Bobby: Part 1

Two days ago, Louisiana Republicans overwhelmingly rejected the Republican nominee, and a handful of remaining states will deliver equally thunderous blows in the coming months.  To no avail.  It is no longer possible for a reasonable person to doubt Mitt Romney’s inevitability.  As of this writing, bettors believe Ron Paul has a better chance of emerging as the Republican nominee than does Rick Santorum.

Mitt Romney will be the Republican nominee.  Doubts about his flaws and convictions notwithstanding, very soon the conservative movement is going to have come to grips with this reality, and begin planning for the always arduous task of ousting an incumbent.  And Mitt Romney will need to spend a considerable portion of the remaining campaign making that transition easier.  To that end, it’s time to begin in earnest the quadrennial Veepstakes.

I won’t pretend even-handedness- enumerating all the various traits of every conceivable running-mate, while trying to subtly steer readers.  We all have our favorites and Bobby Jindal is mine.  Here begins the case for his selection.

Demography is Destinty- Except When It’s Not

Romney’s Louisiana loss was sweeping but not uniform.  Once again, Governor Romney ran into a demographic wall, notably stumbling in the rural areas.
In 18 parishes, Romney won 20% of the vote or less.

Acadia, Allen, Bienville, Caldwell, DeSoto, Evangeline, Franklin, Jackson, LaSalle, Livingston, Richland, St. Bernard, St. Helena, St. James, Union, Vermillion, Washington, and West Carroll.

Only one of these parishes (Livingston) had more than 2846 votes (approximately, the 64 parish average).  Most had less than a thousand votes.  Rural indeed.  But while Romney’s struggles here were acute, they are not unique.  One other recent candidate initially struggled in these same areas: Bobby Jindal.  In another post, I compared two Louisiana Republican maps- the 2002 Suzanne Terrell losing Senate race (against Mary Landrieu) and the 2003 losing Jindal effort.  Both resulted in approximately the same scale of loss but produced very different maps.

By comparing these maps, we can tell where Jindal initially struggled.  How did he perform in these 18 parishes?  He lost 16 of 18.  And he performed worse than Terrell (who won 10 of the 18) in 15 of these parishes.  How much worse?  Well, first let’s define our terms.  If Jindal lost parish X 49-51 and Terrell carried it 51-49, that’s a 4 point swing.  So I’d say that Jindal did 4 points worse than Terrell in parish X.  So how much worse did Jindal do, in these 18 parishes, on average?  20.5% worse.  Hugely worse.  Almost unfathomably worse, given the similar statewide numbers.  In LaSalle parish, Jindal ran an astonishing 65.4% behind Suzanne Terrell.  Indeed, Jindal probably lost registered Republicans in some of these areas.

Isn’t this, you ask, an argument against a Jindal selection?  If he shares Romney’s demographic weaknesses, isn’t he ill-suited to help Romney win over these reluctant rural voters?  The answer is, emphatically, no.  Because, where Romney has continually struggled, Jindal ultimately triumphed.  Jindal’s public career did not end in 2003.  He did not retire to a comfortable cabinet position or accept a sinecure within the maze of government bureaucracy.  He won a House seat and then, in 2007, ran for Governor again.  That year, Jindal won 17 of these 18 parishes.  He increased his percentage in all but two of them, one of which (St. Bernard Parish) was radically changed after Katrina cut its population half.  And perhaps most significantly, he won a higher percentage of the vote than Terrell had- 5 years earlier- in 9 of the 18 parishes.  The rural white voters who’d given Jindal so much trouble 4 years earlier had finally come home.  Bubba’s for Bobby carried the day.

If Romney hopes to win in November, he will need to increase his appeal to the Bubbas.  Not in Louisiana, perhaps, but in Ohio; in Indiana; in Pennsylvania and Virginia and North Carolina.  And no politician in the country has more experience than Bobby Jindal in turning a well-educated, competence-minded technocrat into someone acceptable to rural voters.

It’s The Energy, Stupid

Energy Policy is one of the many issues on which the Obama Administration and the American public are decidedly at odds.  Americans, it turns out, do not want skyrocketing electricity rates, nor are they keen on $4+ gasoline.  A Gallup Poll released last week highlights this disconnect between administration policy and public opinion.  57% of Americans- including a plurality of Democrats- believe the Keystone Pipeline should be approved.  A gaudy 68% of voters in the critical midwest want the pipeline built.  No matter who Romney selects at the convention, energy will be a key Republican advantage in the fall campaign.  But Jindal would considerably enhance the issue’s resonance, for two reasons.

1.  He knows more about domestic energy production than anyone else-  At least twice in the past month, Jindal has waxed eloquent on the energy policy failures of the Obama administration.  Here he is dazzling in a late February press conference:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eJkMcxpzqZM[/youtube]

2.  He can credibly address environmental worries-  As the Governor of Louisiana during the BP oil spill, Jindal had a front-row seat to the Obama administration’s incompetent handling of the crisis and its aftermath.  He can explain to the American people the extremeism of the environmental lobby.  His book, “Leadership and Crisis”, is full of anecdotes of bureaucracy overriding common sense.

Ending Obamacare and Preserving Medicare

For obvious reasons, health-care is something of a minefield for Mitt Romney.  Contra the Rick Santorum line, it is not quite impossible to imagine Romney turning the issue to his advantage.  As this morning’s Politico story notes, Americans don’t like Obamacare, but they’ve never been too happy with Republican health care proposals either.  Romney can probably offer an Obamacare replacement which will at least get the public’s attention.  But if he wants Americans to do more than simply reject Obamacare- if he wants them to vote on Obamacare in an election where a dozen other priorities intrude- he’ll need a replacement that does more than just grab the public’s attention.

Enter Bobby Jindal.  No politician in America has more experience in the health care sector than does Bobby Jindal.  He has a Master’s from Oxford with an emphasis in health policy.   At 24, he was appointed the head of the Louisiana Department of Health and Hospitals, where he eliminated 400 million in Medicaid expenses.  At 29, he was an Assistant Secretary of Health and Human Services.  A Romney/Jindal ticket is uniquely capable of selling a vastly cheaper and less onerous replacement for Obamacare.

But what about Medicare?  What about grannies and cliffs and the biennial Democratic Mediscare campaign?  Here, again, Jindal is uniquely positioned to add to the ticket because of another item in his bio.  In 1998, Jindal was appointed the Executive Director of the National Bi-Partisan Commission on Medicare.   This is the commission Paul Ryan is referring to when he talks about the “bipartisan consensus” that emerged around premium support models in the 90s.  Jindal’s book devotes an entire chapter to this experience.  The title?  “Saving Medicare”.  Here’s a passage from page 242 of that book:

The [proposed] reform would help solve a core problem of the Medicare system: there is no relationship between pay and performance, and no incentive to compete on price.  With the premium support model, health plans would be given flexibility to compete by either reducing premiums or enhancing benefits.

We expected this reform would reduce the growth in Medicare spending by a modest amount up front, and by a significant amount in the long term through “the magic of compound interest”, as Senator Gramm was fond of saying.

On Medicare, Jindal was studying and pitching Ryan-like plans before Ryan even set foot in Congress.

Competence Counts

It’s easy to forget, given Romney’s frequently flailing campaign, but Competent Leadership was once Mitt’s brand.  He revitalized a moribund Bain and Company: rescued a failing Olympics; performed creditably during the Big Dig collapse; found a friend’s lost daughter; saved a drowning family.   Mitt Romney is far from perfect but he is a good man to have around in a crisis.  This November, the economy will matter; the debt will matter; energy prices will matter; entitlements will matter- but in a broader sense, the election will hinge on one thing: whether or not Mitt Romney can recover that brand; whether the American public will say, in something approaching a resounding voice, “this is a good fellow to have around in a crisis”.  John McCain never recovered his brand and lost.  Mitt Romney must or he will suffer the same fate.

Could it be that a whiz-kid Congressman, who swept into the governorship- after a disappointing defeat 4 years earlier- on the strength of Katrina crisis leadership, could enhance the Romney brand?  Could it be that what Romney needs, more than anything else, is to share a ticket with the fellow whose virtuoso performance during the BP oil spill stood as a marked contrast to the President’s hapless leadership?  What do you think?  Isn’t it obvious?

-Matthew E. Miller can be contacted at Obilisk18@yahoo.com

by @ 2:42 pm. Filed under Bobby Jindal, Mitt Romney, Veep Watch

March 15, 2012

Jindal’s Crusade for Poor Schoolchildren

Yesterday, the Louisiana House Education Committee took the first step in ratifying Jindal’s education crusade, by approving two of his three major education bills.  First, the voucher/charter/scholarship bill:

After a contentious all-day hearing, a House panel late Wednesday approved a major portion of Gov. Bobby Jindal’s proposed education overhaul, voting 12-6 to expand a voucher program that could let students from low-to-moderate income families attend private schools at taxpayer expense.

The complex bill also makes it easier for private organizations to obtain permission to run public “charter” schools.

Supporters cast the voucher provision as an escape hatch for students of modest means trapped in low-performing schools. Its harshest critics said it could harm local school districts by diverting badly needed public money to private schools. Even some who aren’t opposed to the voucher concept said Jindal’s bill lacks language to ensure that private schools getting taxpayer dollars would do a better job than public schools.

The bill goes next to the full House. The voucher/charter bill was approved after more than 11 hours of debate…

Jindal’s plan, a statewide expansion of a voucher program already in limited effect in New Orleans, would affect students from low-to-moderate income families who go to schools with a grade of C, D or F under the state accountability plan. Money that ordinarily would be allocated by the state to public schools for such a student would follow the student to a private school.

Critics complained the state allocation includes a share of local tax revenue approved by voters for public schools. Rep. John Bel Edwards, D-Amite, one of Jindal’s chief critics on the committee, said the bill enables the state to effectively bypass voter intent. And he questioned whether the policy violates state constitutional requirements regarding use of public education funds.

Jindal, in a rare committee appearance Wednesday morning, insisted the bill is constitutional. He said his measures would give parents more choice in where to send children in a state where 44 percent of public schools were graded last year at a D or F level on a statewide scale.

“This is not about the next election. This is about the next generation,” said the governor.

The scholarship program would be available to students in nearly 3/4’s of Louisiana districts, as only 28.4% of Louisiana school systems received an A or B ranking.

And the teacher tenure bill:

Gov. Bobby Jindal’s bid to make it tougher for teachers to get the job protection known as tenure and to do away with a statewide salary schedule for teachers has gotten approval from the House Education Committee.

After a marathon hearing Wednesday, the panel voted 13-5 for the bill that would get rid of job protection based on seniority, tie tenure to a new evaluation system based partly on student test scores and let school principals set teacher salaries.

Hundreds of teachers packed the state capitol to oppose the measure.

If these measures go through (and it’s hard to see how they’re stopped) Jindal will make an increasingly attractive VP choice.  The fellow who is “not concerned about the very poor” could use a running mate who has passed a massively expanded voucher plan directed at the poor.  Additionally, as Michael Barone notes in his Uncommon Knowledge interview, these sorts of education reforms are increasingly popular with well-off, suburban moderates and liberals.  Here’s a Jindal video on the scholarship program from last month.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kwqKH9SixqM&feature=plcp&context=C4d521faVDvjVQa1PpcFPLD4y-ynUeA6Dmtxr-KCNPSmZLVsUUcLI%3D[/youtube]

The video has something you rarely see in ads supporting Republican proposals: remarkable color.  A VP Jindal could be just what the doctor ordered: allowing Romney to appeal to blue-collar whites and poorer Hispanics in the Southwest, while maintaining (or even improving) his margins in wealthy suburbs.

by @ 11:03 am. Filed under Bobby Jindal

February 28, 2012

Jindal Calmly, Rationally, Fluidly Eviscerates Obama

I’m sure glad that we’re presently deciding which of the two very serious, very compelling, men battling it out in Michigan will be our nominee.

by @ 3:49 pm. Filed under 2012 Misc., Bobby Jindal

January 30, 2012

Tomorrow, Time’s Up For a White Knight

Tomorrow is the decisive Florida primary. It is also another turning point in the race: tomorrow, it becomes mathematically impossible for a late entrant into the race to earn the 1,144 delegates necessary to win the GOP nomination. Frontloading HQ does the heavy lifting with a handy chart and a post entitled, “I’ll See Your White Knight and Raise You a Filing Deadline: Why It’s Too Late For Entry Into the Republican Nomination Race”.

The money quote:

If the list is constrained more simply to the states where filing deadlines have not passed, the total delegates open to a late entrant drops to 1157. After Tuesday, when Kentucky’s (and Indiana’s petition — see footnote 17 above) deadlines pass that total will drop below 1144 to 1066.

After tomorrow, a candidate can only get on the ballot in enough states to get 1,066 delegates. A late entrant to the race has always been an extreme longshot, but now it is mathematically impossible. Sorry, George Will, Bill Kristol, et al.

But what about a brokered convention? Could someone jump in and deny Mitt Romney the ability to get to 1,144? Theoretically, yes. But here’s what Frontloading HQ has to say about that scenario:

But here’s the thing: Who is that candidate? Let me rephrase that. Who is the candidate who can not only successfully enter the race late, but who can also marshal the organization necessary to cobble together enough delegates to take the nomination or throw enough of a monkeywrench into the process and still maintain support in the party to win the nomination at the convention? Let’s think about this for a moment. There are people in this race now actively seeking the nomination (and who have been running for president for quite some time) who cannot get on the ballots in some states. And we are expecting someone to come in and immediately be able to beat these deadlines, organize write-in efforts and uncommitted slates of delegates to get within shouting distance of 1144 or a lower total held by the frontrunner.

After tomorrow, we can finally put to rest the wild fantasies of a White Knight run by the likes of Jindal, Jeb, Christie, or Ryan. Sorry, dreamers.

by @ 3:18 pm. Filed under Bobby Jindal, Chris Christie, Jeb Bush, Primary & Caucus Dates

January 23, 2012

Bobby Jindal: Run. Now

The latest disaster to befall the Republican Party has the normally clinical Ross Douthat a little exciteable.  He praises Bill Kristol, ever-piner, for continuing to call for a new entrant.  He writes:

And do you know what? He’s been right all along. Right that the decisions by various capable Republicans to forgo a presidential run this year have been a collective disgrace; right that Republican primary voters deserve a better choice than the one being presented to them; and right, as well, that even now it isn’t too late for one of the non-candidates to change their mind and run. True, any candidate who jumped in would have a necessarily uncertain path to the nomination (requiring, at the very least, more than one convention ballot), and by casting themselves as a white knight they would risk embarrassment on a significant scale. But with the field having been winnowed and their opening clear, their path would be smoother and their odds higher than many successful presidential candidates in the past — Barack Obama in 2008 very much included…

And under such circumstances, it seems absurd and pathetic that both the party and the country won’t have the chance to consider another option besides Newt the Great and Terrible.Absurd, pathetic, and pretty much inevitable. But Kristol deserves credit for demanding better, long after the rest of us have given up. The scenario he’s seeking almost certainly won’t happen. But that’s very different from saying that it couldn’t, if someone, from Daniels to Jeb to Bobby Jindal, were willing to step into the breach that caution has created, and cowardice sustained.

His post is entitled “Calling Mitch Daniels”, referring to Kristol’s latest coquette, but while a potentially interesting conventional entrant, Daniels makes little sense as a late entrant.  He has poor name recognition and a mediocre story, little cache with the grassroots, and is every bit as bloodless as Romney.  If by some miracle he managed to drag us to a convention, it’s hard to see how he’d represent any sort of compromise between the disparate factions of the GOP.  Jennifer Rubin casts her net wider, in an appeal to various and sundry Republicans.  She writes:

Dear Govs. Haley Barbour, Mitch Daniels, John Kasich, Bobby Jindal; Sens. Jon Kyl, Marco Rubio and Jim DeMint; and Reps. Eric Cantor (R-Va.), Paul Ryan (R-Wis.), and Mike Pence (R-Ind.):

…It seems, gentlemen, it’s time to get off your … er … time to get off the bench and into the game. It is time to make the case for winning conservatism — a conservatism attractive to centrist voters that can be translated into a reform agenda. If conservatism becomes a movement of anti-media bashing and hyperbolic rhetoric, it will cease to be a force in American politics. And if it is led by an egomaniac whose personal advancement takes precedence over any principle, the GOP will be (correctly) mocked.

Barbour the pardoner is a non-starter.  Kasich is mired in the 30s in Ohio.  Kyl is entirely unknown.  Rubio is too green.  Demint and Cantor too controversial.  Pence, involved in another pressing race.

As I wrote, more than a month ago now, the best possible late entrant is a fellow who nearly 3 years ago delivered a speech which seemed to limit his meteroric rise: Bobby Jindal.  Like Romney and Daniels, he has a first-class demeanor; like Newt, a roving intellect.  Like Barack Obama and Sarah Palin, he would be embarking on an historic candidacy, instantly catapulting him into contention (he would both be the youngest President in history and the first Indian-American President). And he marries the regional biases of the GOP’s base (which prefers Southerners) to the cultural biases of the GOP’s establishment (which prefers big brains from big schools).

He is such an obvious choice for a draft movement; so clearly superior to the other possibilities; so much more likely to actually emerge victorious from the sausage-making messiness that is a convention fight, it’s a wonder anyone else is even in discussion.  We need to abandon the pining of elites for figures, like Daniels and Bush and Barbour, who only appeal to elites.  If Jindal sometimes seems a little too wonky, well, he’s the fellow who backed and campaigned for the grassroots Perry in events that observers said had the feel of Jindal ’16 rallies.  Yes, 3 years ago Jindal gave a bad speech.  But some 24 years ago another rising star gave a bad speech.

“He droned on and on, and droned on,” remembers Tom Brokaw. “When he finally said ‘In conclusion,’ people began to cheer.”

Three years later, this man went on to clobber a weak Presidential field and then a weak incumbent.  With the Republic on the line, we need Bobby Jindal to try to capture the same lightning that fell into Bill Clinton’s bottle.  Before it’s too late.

by @ 11:27 am. Filed under 2012 Misc., Bobby Jindal

January 13, 2012

Bobby Jindal Inauguration Video

For those of you who want a break from 2012 talk, here’s a video of Bobby Jindal’s very fine second inaugural address from a few days ago.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o2k9_uToQWM[/youtube]

by @ 8:51 am. Filed under Bobby Jindal

January 5, 2012

Bobby Jindal… for President?

An idea I’ve been talking about for ages, Bobby Jindal making a late entrance, is finally getting a little establishment play- almost certainly too late in the game.  Matt Lewis reports:

Today, a prominent conservative, Morton Blackwell, has suggested a new candidate may emerge. Blackwell’s idea is for Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal to replace the man he endorsed for president — Texas Gov. Rick Perry.

Blackwell believes that — for a variety of reasons — Gov. Jindal is “almost a perfect candidate.” For one thing, he says, “[Jindal is] a font of ideas at least as fertile as Newt Gingrich — but without the wackiness.”

But considering some candidates are already missing filing deadlines to get on ballots, how could such a swap work?

According to Blackwell — who sits on the RNC’s Standing Committee on Rules — if Rick Perry drops out, “People could run as Perry delegates — with Perry being a surrogate for Jindal.” Perry would essentially say to the public: “Vote for me; my delegates will vote for Bobby Jindal.

The bolded part is eerily similar to something I wrote in the comments section of my “None of the Above” endorsement 3 weeks ago.  I wrote:

Or, in Jindal’s case, he could instruct voters to cast their ballots for Perry (who will almost certainly be all but out of the race, but still on the ballots, at that point). Perry, would then simply pledge to hand over the delegates to Jindal at the convention. Back in the day, when front-runners didn’t enter every primary, it wasn’t uncommon for them to run “favorite son” supporters, who would then hand over the delegates at the convention. I.e, the Governor of Ohio- supporter of candidate X- would run in the primary and win the delegates for candidate X. Perry, who’d likely be a Jindal supporter at a convention anyway, could help both Jindal and himself by fulfilling the same role in some the states where Jindal couldn’t get on the ballot.

Oddly enough, despite Perry tanking epically in Iowa- a prerequisite for this scenario- this whole scheme looks less plausible to me now than it did then.  It was written at a moment when it looked like Newt Gingrich would win Iowa and probably the nomination.  And Newt Gingrich was simply a weaker front-runner than Romney is.  Mitt’s millions and the establishment’s disdain for Gingrich would have ensured a long-battle, another pre-requisite for a “consensus” late entrant.  Jindal running under Perry’s line in a handful of states would sure yield Perry more delegates than he’d get otherwise.  But unless he could also run under Gingrich’s line (Jindal and Gingrich are friends so this isn’t totally implausible) AND convince Santorum to take a hike, it’s hard to see how he overcomes Romney.  Still, it’s nice to know that I wasn’t insane for thinking that Jindal’s re-election bid was no real impediment to a Presidential run.   Here we are in January (WAY later than I would have envisioned a bid kicking off) and seriously people are finally talking it up.

by @ 10:51 pm. Filed under Bobby Jindal

December 14, 2011

None of the Above

Quin Hillyer, who has been a voice of sanity in this Brave Newt World we seem to have stumbled into, has a new post recommending something I’ve been calling for since the beginning of the primary process: a Bobby Jindal Presidential candidacy.  He writes:

Talk is heating up about the need for a new entrant in the Republican presidential sweepstakes…

A name I am increasingly hearing is that of Bobby Jindal, subject of glowing reviews in the past three or so months by Fred Barnes, Jim Geraghty, Michael Barone, Chris Cillizza,  and Yours Truly.

Here’s the key thing: There is not an elected official in the country who knows health care policy as well as Jindal, and once the Supreme Court decides the Obamacare case, health care will be front and center in the campaign…If Republicans want somebody who not only will oppose Obamacare (that’s an easy thing to do), but also to be able to outline a positive alternative and explain it understandably, nobody, not even Paul Ryan, can do it better than Bobby Jindal.

Rhodes Cook, of Sabato’s Crystal Ball, lays out a lengthy case for why a late entrant, even now, could win the nomination.  He writes:

But next year, the arrangement of the primary calendar is much different. It is less condensed at the front, much more loaded with events at the back, with the prospect of a viable, late-starting candidate quite real…

But the elongated layout of the nominating calendar this time provides the opportunity for a late-starting candidate to emerge. Should Mitt Romney stumble badly in the January events in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Florida, another establishment Republican could enter the race in early February and still compete directly in states with at least 1,200 of the 2,282 or so GOP delegates. Many of them will be up for grabs after April 1 when statewide winner-take-all is possible.

Here’s his eye-popping chart on the delegate counts.

 

That’s right: nearly 60% of the delegates are awarded after March 6th.  A late entry with the right profile- someone able to raise, say, 15 million for a non-competitive re-election bid- could plausibly steal enough delegates to send the race to the second ballot.  At which point, the established candidates, bruised and broken by over a year of negative campaigning, would be distinct underdogs.

As it turns out, today is the 4 year anniversary of my 2008 endorsement.  This should come as no surprise to those who follow the comments section but, if my primary were held today, I would cast the same ballot.  Holman Jenkins’ WSJ editorial does a good job of  highlighting why, between Romney and Gingrich- two peas in a pod in many respects- Romney is the obvious choice.  Here’s the key section:

Our world that’s coming is a world of narrowing, not widening, choices. It’s a world that suits Mr. Romney’s skills and history, his knack for operating within constraints and making choices based on data, data, data. Mr. Obama lives in the same world, of course, but is unequipped to deal with it given his dubious gifts for execution, execution, execution. Also, given his inclination to seek refuge in a clueless reverie of big new programs at a time when the resources simply don’t exist.

Nor is there a Big Idea that can transform our unhappy prospects. Lunar mining will not rescue Medicare. People like Mr. Gingrich play a useful role in politics: It’s good to be able to talk thrillingly about history, civilization. But they make bad—perhaps we should say, unnecessary—presidents. When ideas are new and unfamiliar, they’re not executable. When they’re executable we need people who can execute.

The consensus for painful reform comes when the status quo hits the wall. It’s a myth that we don’t know what our choices are. That’s the Romney moment. His strong suit has always been to do what everyone else has put off.

Yet, execution doesn’t convince skeptics or fire-up troops; it doesn’t speak to steadiness or conviction; it doesn’t win hearts.  In politics, “moments” are created as much by voters as candidates.  Romney, like Mr. Gingrich, has made too many compromises and calculations.  Romney, like Mr. Gingrich, has sacrificed the public weal for easy encomiums.  We may not need Big Ideas but we need Big Men.  Whatever Romney has been in his private life, in public he has not been Big.  Not Big enough.  Not for these times.  If the Republican Party sours on Gingrich, as they should, and remains sour on Romney, as they may, maybe we’ll have an opportunity to elect a Big Man.  Bobby Jindal is as good a candidate as any.

by @ 12:36 pm. Filed under 2012 Misc., Bobby Jindal, Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich

October 25, 2011

Conservative Print Media Still Waiting for Godot

Over at The Weekly Standard, Bill Kristol claims that his dreams of a late entry to the presidential field ain’t licked yet:

CBS reports that “voters are not firm in their support of any of the candidates. About four of five voters said it is too early to say for sure who they support for the nomination, with just 19 percent saying their minds are already made up. That’s about the same as it was at this point in 2007.” …(So) mightn’t at least one of Mitch Daniels, Mike Pence, Paul Ryan, or Jeb Bush be rethinking his decision not to run?

That led Quin Hillyer of The American Spectator to once again call on a Jindal entry, his second plea to the recently re-elected Louisiana governor today, the first of which Matthew Miller noted this morning. Hillyer also seems to think that it’s not too late for a deus ex machina candidate:

…if I were Karl Rove, I’d be looking at all of Mitt Romney’s weaknesses and thinking how vulnerable he would be against Obama, and I’d be picking up the phone and calling the Louisiana governor’s mansion.

You know, people say Bobby Jindal bombed in his only national speech. Well, the last time somebody famously bombed in a nationally televised speech, so badly that he was all but booed off the stage, was a guy in 1988 whose given name at birth was Billy Blythe. We know him as William Jefferson Clinton, and he bedeviled us for two full terms in the Oval Office (but not in the Lincoln Bedroom, because it was for rent). One ill-received speech does not break a career, especially when the candidate is an incredibly able debater and retail politician.

Jindal’s biggest problem with an 11th hour entry may not be money, organization, or endorsements, but his own decision to back Gov. Perry for president, something that will be very difficult to wiggle out of in any respectable manner. If Perry were to close up shop, and tag his friend Bobby into the ring, things could get interesting. And then there are those annoying filing deadlines for pivotal early states, of course, most of which are just days away…

by @ 7:15 pm. Filed under Bobby Jindal

Hillyer Floats Jindal (A Little Late)

Well, my preferred Presidential Nominee from day 1 (even ahead of Ryan), has finally received a draft mention from a prominent conservative writer.  Much too late I suspect.  The American Spectator’s Quin Hillyer makes the case:

But as a hypothetical, if one were to create from scratch a near-perfect presidential candidate, one might come close to creating Bobby Jindal, who just won re-election in Louisiana this past Saturday with a phenomenal two-thirds of the vote against nine (!) opponents

In this contest, you would want somebody fairly youthful and energetic because Barack Obama’s youth otherwise remains an advantage. You would absolutely, positively want somebody who can beat Obama like a drum on the issue of health care — and there is no elected official in America, not even Paul Ryan, who knows health-care policy better than Jindal does. He was head of Louisiana’s health department at 24, where he almost single-handedly fixed the state’s horrendous Medicaid problems. He was executive director of Bill Clinton’s Medicare commission, headed by Louisiana Democratic U.S. Sen. John Breaux and California’s Republican U.S. Rep. Bill Thomas, which garnered bipartisan support but fell victim to the politics of the Lewinsky era. He can explain “premium support” and market solutions better than anyone in the business, especially in a debate, where — unlike, perhaps, in a formal speech setting — Jindal absolutely sparkles.You would want somebody acceptable to cultural conservatives (he’s solidly rightward on cultural issues) without the rhetoric or mannerisms that make some candidates scary to otherwise right-leaning independents who may be culturally a bit center-left (Yuppies, Bobos in Paradise, whatever you want to call them). You want somebody with a fiscal record Tea Partiers would absolutely love. (Try a rare “A” on CATO’s report card and, as Geraghty describes, a 26 percent overall cut in state spending.) You would want somebody with a good record of economic development who leads a state with better-than-average unemployment figures…

Jindal already has endorsed Rick Perry for president. Party leaders still looking to recruit another candidate might want to consider convincing him to renege on that endorsement. This nomination battle is still volatile enough for one more candidate to blow into the race with hurricane force tailwinds.

Read the whole thing.  Now, I’m no political maven, but I’m not sure how Jindal could go about “reneging” on his Perry endorsement.  Even if he could theoretically meet the filing deadline in Florida by the 31st and South Carolina by the 1st (both rather important states for a southern conservative), the whiplash of unendorsing Perry would surely complicate his first few days in the race.  Yes, Jindal’s a nigh perfect candidate.  Yes, it was a mistake for him to nix the idea ages ago and a mistake for conservatives to take him at his word- they didn’t take anyone else at their word.  And, yes, as Monday’s enormous victory showcases, Jindal probably could have flirted with running without significantly impeding his reelection chances.  But unless Perry drops out today and endorses Jindal- which would be an odd thing to do the day you unveiled a flat tax proposal- I can’t conceive of a scenario where Jindal parachutes in and ends up anything other than embarrassed and ineffectual.

by @ 7:53 am. Filed under Bobby Jindal

October 23, 2011

Gov. Bobby Jindal Wins Second Term

With 100 percent of precincts reporting, Gov. Bobby Jindal has managed to pull off a massive supermajority victory over his opponents in his race for re-election as Louisiana governor. Jindal’s win is largely being overlooked by Republicans at the national level. It shouldn’t be. The fact that a youngish, non-white Republican wonk was able to win nearly two-thirds of the statewide vote in the state that nearly elected David Duke just two decades ago speaks volumes about the changing nature of Dixie and about the vacuity of the Left’s perennial critique of the Republican Party as a vehicle for the perpetuation of racial inequality.

Had Gov. Jindal won re-election a year earlier, we might be talking about Jindal-Mania right about now. As I recall, Jindal was one of the first prominent Republicans to come out of the gate talking about charting a way forward for the party after its loss to President Obama in 2008. Unfortunately, Jindal was derailed by a bust of a State of the Union response in 2009, and by the peculiar nature of his own state, with its election cycle timed very poorly for would-be presidents.

In any case, Gov. Jindal deserves a spot on the vice presidential short list of the ultimate Republican presidential nominee next year, especially if that nominee turns out to be Mitt Romney. Jindal’s endorsement of Gov. Perry notwithstanding, he remains, like Rubio and Cain, a Southern, base-friendly, non-white conservative that would balance a Romney ticket in so many important ways.

by @ 2:43 pm. Filed under Bobby Jindal, Veep Watch

September 12, 2011

BREAKING – Bobby Jindal to Endorse Rick Perry

CNN is reporting that Bobby Jindal is going to endorse Rick Perry for President. You can read more about that here.

-Sorry to break into Matthew’s post, but I thought that the text of the official announcement would be better placed here than its own thread—KWN:

“Rick Perry is the candidate who can lead our party to victory in 2012,” said Gov. Jindal. “His record on job creation simply cannot be beat, and the one million jobs he’s helped create as governor is a stark contrast to the 2.4 million jobs lost on President Obama’s watch. President Obama promised hope, but he simply hasn’t delivered. Rick Perry will bring our country more than hope – he’ll get America working again.”

As Governor, Rick Perry has helped build the nation’s top economy. Since June 2009, Texas is responsible for nearly 40 percent of the net new jobs in America.

“I truly appreciate Gov. Jindal’s endorsement because he is a leader who knows what it takes to rebuild an economy and restore people’s confidence,” said Gov. Perry. “His efforts to cut taxes and reduce unreasonable regulations are helping the Louisiana economy grow, and that is exactly what I aim to do for America. I look forward to continuing to work with him throughout this campaign, and with his help, we’ll get America working again.”

by @ 1:59 pm. Filed under Bobby Jindal, Endorsements, Rick Perry

March 7, 2011

Whom do Pacific Northwest GOP Activists like? Mitch Daniels

The state Republican parties of Oregon and Washington state have had their annual meetings. During that time, they followed the time-honored tradition of holding a Presidential Straw Poll among the party’s most active activists. As the Oregonian Magazine says, “Straw polls of party activists usually have little impact on the presidential nominating process, but they do offer a sense of who is exciting interest among those likely to get involved in campaigns.” So take the results with a grain of salt.

Here they are:

(Oregon 3-6)
Daniels 29%
Romney 23%
Palin 18%
Huckabee 10%
Gingrich 6%
Paul 5%
Pawlenty 4%
Barbour 3%
Trump 2%
Obama 0%
(Washington 1/31)
Daniels 31%
Romney 14%
Pawlenty 13%
Christie 9%
Thune 8%
Jindal 5%
Ryan 3%
Gingrich 3%
DeMint 3%
Palin 3%
Barbour 2%
Huckabee 2%
Pence 1%
Huntsman 1%
Bachmann 1%
Paul 1%

 

February 8, 2011

2011 Gubernatorial Elections: An Early Preview

While we wait in anticipation for the would-be Republican candidates to announce that they are running for President, it’s easy to forget that there are 4 races for Governor this year. Right now two are controlled by the Democrats (Kentucky and West Virginia) while two are controlled by the Republicans (Louisiana and Mississippi). Only in the Magnolia State, where Governor Barbour is retiring, is the seat open. So, without further ado, let’s look at these races:

1.)    Kentucky- Democrat held, Steve Beshear: Governor Beshear came into power in 2007 in large part due to the scandals of the administration of then incumbent Governor Ernie Fletcher.  Right now, Beshear has a 48% job approval rating, according to PPP, not bad, but certainly not invincible. The Bluegrass State though is still Republican territory so Beshear can be vulnerable to a tough, concerted, united GOP effort.  

 There are two main candidates for the Republican nomination. The first is David Williams, President of the Kentucky State Senate and the Establishment GOP favorite in the race. The PPP poll shows Beshear leading Williams 44-35, not a terrible showing considering that Beshear has been Governor for 3.5 years and Williams is not all that well known; less than half of Kentuckians have any real opinion of him.

 The second candidate for the Republican nomination is Phil Moffet, a businessman and the favorite of the Tea Party. He is even more unknown than Williams; only 20% of Kentuckians have an opinion of him. Consequently Moffet performs even worse against Beshear, losing 45-26.

 Current Rating Leans Democrat: It’s early but Governor Beshear probably has the edge. He won’t face any real opposition to being renominated and can focus on gearing up for the general election. The GOP will have to hash through a primary which will probably once again be an Establishment v. Tea Party battle that could hamper party unity and handicap their efforts in the fall. Both Williams and Moffet need to tread lightly when seeking the nomination, if only to make it a nomination worth having.

 2.)    Louisiana- Republican held Bobby Jindal: Governor Jindal is almost certain to win reelection in Louisiana, especially under the rules of the state’s “jungle primary”. His popularity with the voters of Louisiana makes Jindal an incredibly formidable candidate. The Democratic Party has been in rapid decline in Louisiana of late, holding only one House seat, the 2nd, based in New Orleans and one statewide official, Sen. Landrieu.

 Right now, not a single Democrat has filed to run against Bobby Jindal and only 1 independent has. With the Democratic bench having been wiped out, the only mentioned candidate is Caroline Fayard, who ran for Lt. Governor in 2010. If she couldn’t win then, she isn’t going to win against a powerhouse like Jindal.

 Current Rating: Safe Republican: For all the reasons mentioned above, it looks like Bobby Jindal will be cruising to reelection. The Democrats are struggling just to find someone to use as a sacrificial lamb. The RGA probably isn’t going to be losing much sleep over Louisiana this time.

 3.)    Mississippi- Republican held, open seat: The only open seat of the cycle, the Magnolia State will decide who replaces the very popular Haley Barbour this November.  

 On the Republican side, there is an open field with several candidates; however the front-runner is probably Phil Bryant, the current Lt. Governor. Others include Dave Dennis, the former Chair of the New Orleans Federal Reserve Board, and Hudson Holliday, the District Supervisor of Pearl River County. Other possible candidates include Amy Tuck, the former Lt. Governor (during Barbour’s first term), and Delbert Hossman, the Secretary of State.

 Democrats have a potentially divisive primary if candidates like Attorney General Jim Hood, Mayor Heather Hudson of Greenville and Chief Justice of the Supreme Court William Waller all run. However, each of these candidates have not yet declared, leaving the field essentially open to Mayor Johnny DuPree of Hattiesburg.

 Current Rating: Leans Republican: Haley Barbour is very popular in Mississippi and the state is very red. However, as I said above, there are a lot of potentially strong Democratic candidates who may run. We’ll have to see how this race develops to see if we have a fight on our hands in the Magnolia State.

 4.)    West Virginia- Democrat held, Earl Ray Tomblin: This is easily the strangest race of the cycle. West Virginia usually elects their Governors in presidential election years, and that will be the case in 2012. However, the election of Joe Manchin to the Senate has set off a domino effect, meaning that West Virginia will have an interim Governor until the October election (you read that right, it’s in October). The new Governor will hold the seat until November 2012, when they will run for a full term. Confused yet?

 It gets even better. The Acting Governor is Earl Ray Tomblin, who is also President of the West Virginia Senate. He is running for the job himself, but the path to the Democratic nomination will not be clear. A whole slew of candidates are running, but the early race seems to be Tomblin and Natalie Tennant, the Secretary of State. PPP had Tomblin receiving 25% of the vote against Tennant’s 24%. However, as of right now, both parties will nominate their candidates at State Conventions, so who knows what’ll happen.

 The Democrats are having a free-for-all, but the GOP seems to be settling on Betty Ireland, the former Secretary of State.  She has three opponents, but since none of them is named John Raese or especially Shelly Moore Capito, Ireland should have an easy time locking up the Republican nomination. Right now, Ireland is trailing Tomblin 49-32 and Tennant 43-32.

 Current Rating: Leans Democratic: Joe Manchin has shown that Democrats win West Virginia by essentially becoming Republicans, which is tough for the GOP to compete against. However, since the Democratic race looks chaotic right now, there might well be divisions created in the primary that we can exploit. Besides, with only 4 races this year, the RGA can invest a good deal of money in this race. With all the craziness surrounding this race, anything can happen.

 So there you have it. At this point, I’d say the 2011 gubernatorial races end in status quo. But, Kentucky and West Virginia are red states, at least during Presidential elections. There is no reason for the GOP to fight to make them red during other election cycles. After all, it is our gubernatorial bench where the next generation of Republican leaders will be made.

Update: Our resident Kentuckian, Ray Brun, has been so good to give an on the ground look at his state’s contest. Basically, ignore what I wrote:

“There are 3 legit candidates on the GOP side. Bobbie Holsclaw is the Jefferson County (Louisville Metro) Clerk. Doesn’t sound like a big position, but it is. She is extremely well liked by both Dems and Reps in Jefferson County.

Senate President is extremely well known in the state (not sure where PPP got there numbers from). He has been a thorn in the side of Beshear since day 1 and tried to out power Fletcher during his administration. Most of the state thinks Williams is a boob, even though the Establishment like him. Had Holsclaw gotten in earlier she might have been able to pick up that Establishment support (she would be considered the Technocrat in this race). Moffett is a nobody in KY and won’t get any traction, whatsoever.

Beshear switched Lt. Gov’s last year and now has former Louisville mayor Jerry Abramson as his running mate. King Jerry knows how to fundraise like no one else in KY and solidifies the urban vote for the rural Beshear.

Also, KY likes to vote Dem in state-wide races. I would put this race as solidly Dem right now.”

by @ 9:02 pm. Filed under Bobby Jindal, Haley Barbour, Misc.

December 22, 2010

Poll Watch: Clarus Research 2012 Presidential Survey

Clarus Research 2012 Presidential Survey

  • Barack Obama (D) 39%
  • Mitt Romney (R) 36%
  • Michael Bloomberg (I) 13%
  • Barack Obama (D) 42%
  • Sarah Palin (R) 31%
  • Michael Bloomberg (I) 18%

Because of term limits, Bill Clinton cannot run for President again. But, just suppose for a moment, that he could run again––in that case, would you prefer Barack Obama or Bill Clinton to be elected President?

  • Bill Clinton 45%
  • Barack Obama 29%

Even though the President before Obama––George W. Bush––also cannot run for president again because of term limits, just suppose for a moment that he could run again––in that case, would you prefer Barack Obama or George W. Bush to be elected President?

  • Barack Obama 48%
  • George W. Bush 44%

I am now going to read to you a couple of statements about government and politics… please tell me whether you agree or disagree with each one––

In many ways, America is in decline and we need strong, competent leadership to get us back on track.

  • Agree 85%
  • Disagree 11%

It would be good for the country to elect a nonpartisan President who is neither a Democrat nor a Republican.

  • Agree 48%
  • Disagree 38%

THE FOLLOWING QUESTIONS WERE ASKED ONLY OF REPUBLICANS…

As you may know, there are a number of Republicans who are considering running for president in 2012. Please tell me which ONE of the following would you most likely vote for if the presidential primary were held today… Mitt Romney, Sarah Palin, Mike Huckabee, Newt Gingrich, Chris Christie, John Thune, Haley Barbour, Tim Pawlenty, Ron Paul, Bobby Jindal, Marco Rubio, or Mitch Daniels…

  • Mitt Romney 19%
  • Mike Huckabee 18%
  • Sarah Palin 17%
  • Newt Gingrich 10%
  • Chris Christie 9%
  • Marco Rubio 5%
  • Ron Paul 4%
  • Bobby Jindal 4%
  • Tim Pawlenty 3%
  • Haley Barbour 2%
  • John Thune 2%
  • Mitch Daniels 2%
  • Undecided 5%

Thinking more about the 2012 election…

Would you prefer the next Republican presidential candidate be someone with legislative experience in Congress …or… someone with management experience as a governor?

  • Management experience/governor 65%
  • Legislative experience/Congress 15%

If you had to pick between the two––would you prefer the next Republican presidential candidate be someone with experience in government …or… someone with experience in private business?

  • Experience in private business 53%
  • Experience in government 28%

If you had to pick between the two––would you prefer the next Republican presidential candidate be someone known for clear and consistent philosophical principles …or… someone known to be intelligent and competent?

  • Someone who is intelligent and competent 49%
  • Someone with clear and consistent philosophical principles 37%

If you had to pick between the two––would you prefer the next Republican presidential candidate be a moderate conservative who has a good chance of beating Barack Obama …or… someone who is an outspoken conservative who has only a fair chance of beating Barack Obama?

  • A moderate, pragmatic conservative 61%
  • A staunch, outspoken conservative 29%

Do you think someone in his or her early 40s is too young to be President?

  • Yes 20%
  • No 76%

Survey of 1,000 registered voters, including a sub-sample of 365 registered Republicans, was conducted December 10-16, 2010. The margin of error is +/- 3.1 percentage points among all registered voters; +/- 5.1 percentage points among registered Republicans.

October 15, 2010

Bayou Bobby Goes to New Hampshire

Jindal has been traversing the country and yesterday stopped in NH to campaign for Republican Gubernatorial candidate John Stephen.  The American Spectator’s Andrew Cline has a glowing review:

In New Hampshire, retail politics is king. You cannot win the first-in-the-nation primary if you are bad at winning over small crowds of voters, if you haven’t the personality to make a room full of people think, “I like that guy.” Granite State political operatives size up candidates on how well they can work a room, tell a story, make people smile. Before yesterday, the New Hampshire scouting report on Bobby Jindal was that he was sharp as a whip, but very wonky, and policy wonks tend to lack the social skills needed to thrive in the primary. After yesterday, the scouting report is very different.

What Bobby Jindal did at the 100 Club on Thursday afternoon was to swiftly, deftly, and without the slightest hint of insincerity or effort, make a few dozen important and seasoned New Hampshire Republicans say to themselves, “I like that guy.”

Jindal warmed up the crowd with jokes about being a politician from a state famous for its corrupt politicians. But his jokes weren’t barbed or insulting. Mitt Romney jokes a lot about being a Republican from Massachusetts. The jokes work with Republican crowds that aren’t from Massachusetts, but to some they come across as insulting to his home state. They can be taken as expressing the general thought: “Can you believe the fools I have to put up with back home?” There is none of that in Jindal’s jests. They are directed at politicians, not the people who elect them. So they not only break the ice, but they instantly establish him as a political outsider, a normal person thrust into a corrupt world by the calling of public service.

There’s more at the link.  I still think, with grassroots support, Jindal’s re-election bid wouldn’t be much of a hindrance to a Presidential run.  He’s going to win re-election.  George W. Bush, a less popular politician in a bluer state, won re-election in 1998 despite the fact that everyone and his mother knew he was running for President.  Despite the fact that he’d made very obvious moves in that direction.  He won easily, historically.  Jindal could gradually ramp up out of state events, avoiding Iowa and NH, staying mum on his future plans, and then leap into the fray in mid-November with a skeleton operation if none of the major players had closed the sale.  It’s worth thinking about.

by @ 12:48 pm. Filed under Bobby Jindal

February 16, 2010

Bobby Jindal’s Apparently Running for President

Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal, who still sports a sky-high approval rating, is releasing a tome about “America’s core values” called “On Solid Ground,” co-written with conservative journalist Peter Schweizer — to be dropped July of this year. Now why could this be?

If Jindal’s going to run against Barack Obama, he’s in an awfully tricky spot. The next gubernatorial election is in November 2011 — a mere two months before the Iowa caucuses. It is absolutely impossible for him as a fairly unknown quantity to run a presidential campaign right after a gubernatorial one wraps up.

There remains, of course, another possibility — the only one that makes sense, in the light of the news of this not-campaign-book: that he’s going to announce in early 2011 that he is not running for re-election, instead choosing to focus on a presidential campaign. If he’s releasing a book talking about America’s core values — that is: a nationally-oriented book — then that’s the only thing that makes sense. How often does a sitting governor, interested in remaining governor for the foreseeable future, release a manifesto about bringing America back to its core values by “fundamentally transforming Washington”? Indeed, check out the product description. Does this sound like a man running for re-election?:

Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal is not only a rising star in the GOP but has been touted as the future face of the Republican Party. In his new book, Jindal tells his own inspiring story and reveals his plan for putting conservatives and America back on solid ground. Blending his personal story, including his conversion to Christianity and his unprecedented political career, with an account of his local and national governmental successes, Jindal offers a bold vision for renewing the GOP and our nation. From health care and national debt to how we can fundamentally transform Washington, Jindal tackles controversial issues and offers fresh solutions. Insightful and inspiring, On Solid Ground provides the leadership voice Republicans seek and the guidance America [Alex's note: not Louisiana] needs.

Maybe in his book he’ll explain why, as a Congressman, he voted against free trade in Central America.

by @ 12:01 pm. Filed under Bobby Jindal

February 12, 2010

Poll Watch: Rasmussen Louisiana Senatorial Survey

Rasmussen Louisiana Senatorial Survey

  • David Vitter 57% (53%)
  • Charlie Melancon 33% (35%)

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

  • David Vitter 67% (61%) / 26% (33%) {+41%}
  • Charlie Melancon 39% (39%) / 45% (46%) {-6%}

How would you rate the job Bobby Jindal has been doing as Governor?

  • Strongly approve 36% (32%)
  • Somewhat approve 34% (35%)
  • Somewhat disapprove 17% (18%)
  • Strongly disapprove 11% (15%)

How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President?

  • Strongly approve 26% (29%)
  • Somewhat approve 11% (10%)
  • Somewhat disapprove 10% (10%)
  • Strongly disapprove 53% (51%)

Survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted February 10, 2010. The margin of error is +/- 4.5 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted January 14, 2010 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers:

Men heavily favor Vitter 68% to 26%, while women prefer the Republican by 11 points, 49% to 38%.

Among voters not affiliated with either party, Vitter leads by more than three-to-one.

by @ 2:56 pm. Filed under 2010, Barack Obama, Bobby Jindal, Poll Watch

February 11, 2010

Poll Watch: Gallup 2012 Survey

Gallup 2012 Survey
Republicans 2012

Results are based on telephone interviews with 1,025 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted Feb. 1-3, 2010. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of error is ±4 percentage points.

For results based on the sample of 942 registered voters, the maximum margin of error is ±4 percentage points.

For results based on the sample of 490 Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, the maximum margin of error is ±5 percentage points.

January 19, 2010

Poll Watch: Rasmussen Louisiana Senatorial Survey

Rasmussen Louisiana Senatorial Survey

  • David Vitter 53%
  • Charlie Melancon 35%
  • Jay Dardenne 53%
  • Charlie Melancon 31%

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

  • David Vitter 61% / 33% {+28%}
  • Jay Dardenne 49% / 24% {+25%}
  • Charlie Melancon 39% / 46% {-7%}

How would you rate the job Bobby Jindal has been doing as Governor?

  • Strongly approve 32%
  • Somewhat approve 35%
  • Somewhat disapprove 18%
  • Strongly disapprove 15%

How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President?

  • Strongly approve 29%
  • Somewhat approve 10%
  • Somewhat disapprove 10%
  • Strongly disapprove 51%

Generally speaking, do you strongly favor, somewhat favor, somewhat oppose or strongly oppose the health care reform plan proposed by President Obama and the congressional Democrats?

  • Strongly favor 24%
  • Somewhat favor 10%
  • Somewhat oppose 6%
  • Strongly oppose 58%

Should the December attempt to blow up an airliner as it was landing in Detroit be investigated by military authorities as a terrorist act or by civilian authorities as a criminal act?

  • By the military as a terrorist act 74%
  • By civilian authorities as a criminal act 11%

How do you rate the way that the government responded to the attempted bombing of a U.S. airliner on Christmas Day?

  • Excellent 10%
  • Good 20%
  • Fair 26%
  • Poor 41%

Survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted January 14, 2010. The margin of error is +/- 4.5 percentage points.

by @ 4:07 pm. Filed under 2010, Barack Obama, Bobby Jindal, Poll Watch

January 8, 2010

National Journal Magazine’s Political Insiders’ Poll

This has been tangentially mentioned. Here it is in all its glory:

National Journal Magazine polled a number of “political insiders” on both sides of the aisle on the 2012 Presidential Election. Since Barack Obama is the presumptive Democrat candidate, the poll centered on the possible Republican candidate. Here are the results:

To the Democrats (111 votes):

Q: Who would be the Republicans’ strongest presidential nominee in 2012?
Rank/Candidate
1. Mitt Romney 29 percent
2. John Thune 15 percent
3. Tim Pawlenty 13 percent
4. Mitch Daniels 11 percent
5. Newt Gingrich 6 percent
6. Haley Barbour 5 percent
6. Jeb Bush 5 percent
8. Mike Huckabee 3 percent
8. Bobby Jindal 3 percent
8. Sarah Palin 3 percent

Also receiving votes: Dick Cheney, 2 percent; Michael Bloomberg, Eric Cantor, Jon Huntsman, Rick Perry, Colin Powell, Marco Rubio, Rick Santorum, no one, 1 percent each.


To the Republicans (109 votes):Q: Please rank the top five candidates, 1 through 5, in terms of who you think is most likely to capture the 2012 Republican presidential nomination.
Rank/Candidate/Insiders Index*
1. Mitt Romney 81
2. Tim Pawlenty 46
3. John Thune 38
4. Haley Barbour 28
5. Mitch Daniels 25
5. Sarah Palin 25
7. Newt Gingrich 14
7. Mike Huckabee 14
9. Jeb Bush 6
10. Bobby Jindal 5

*METHODOLOGY: All 127 Republicans among National Journal’s Political Insiders were asked to name and rank the top five contenders for their party’s 2012 presidential nomination; 109 participated. In tallying the rankings, a first-place vote was worth 5 points, a second-place vote 4 points, and so on. The Insiders Index reflects the percentage of points that each contender received out of the maximum possible. For example, Mitt Romney scored an Index rating of 81, meaning he received 81 percent of the possible 545 points, the number he would have had if all 109 participants had ranked him first.


My analysis:

The first thing that leaps out at me is the questions. It is not, “Whom would you vote for”, or ,”Whom would you like to see”? The question to the Democrats was, “Whom would be the strongest opponent”? The question to the Republicans was, “Who is the most likely to obtain the nomination”? Note the difference? None of this “favorables” touchy-feely stuff.

The second thing that strikes me is the term “political insiders”. The grass roots like to sneer at them, but it has long been my experience that the middle layers of any organization are the ones who really run things. They are the ones that make things work in spite of the ravings from the top. The top determine policy. The middle actually sees that it gets done in spite of the top echelon in many cases. So don’t blame them for the policy screw-ups during the Bush years.

These are not part-time political junkies. These are the guys whose very jobs and careers depend up their political judgment. If outsiders such as us call a political shot wrong, we lose face. If they call a political shot wrong, they lose their jobs.

The final thing that strikes me is that I pretty much agree with them. As I see it now, the two people most likely to win the nomination are Pawlenty and Romney. They are the ones making the right moves in order to lay a foundation for a successful run. Huckabee and Palin are acting more like celebrities than candidates. If they are truly going to run, I see them making the same mistakes now that ultimately cost Rudy Giuliani and Fred Thompson the nomination last time.

November 28, 2009

Jindal On Economic Development and Cantor for President

Gov. Jindal talks health care solutions on Fox News:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KF49YZAShXw[/youtube]

Is Eric Cantor eyeing a 2012 run?

While he might not admit it, Culpeper’s congressman could be one of the GOP’s best hopes.

It’s three years until the next presidential election, yet it’s never too early to gaze into our crystal ball. Let’s speculate as to which Republican might oppose Barack Obama — we’ll
assume he’s running for a second term — in 2012.

John McCain is yesterday’s news. So is Mitt Romney. Golden boy Bobby Jindal shot himself in the foot. Sarah Palin? She’s become a sideshow who has splintered the party. Is
there anyone else?

With no heir apparent, it’s shaping up to be another wide open field for the GOP, leaving the opportunity for someone like Eric Cantor to make a serious run — if he so decides — at
the world’s most important elected office.

Wait a minute, you say. Isn’t Cantor Culpeper’s congressman? The next president coming from Culpeper? Come on!

Consider this: Cantor is one of the GOP’s rising stars. He’s the minority whip in the U.S. House, giving him considerable power. And if the GOP regains the House in 2010, his stock
will rise even more.

Cantor is scandal-free and has done nothing to soil his image on the national scale. He keeps getting more face time on national news shows, and he’s even been spoofed a few
times on Saturday Night Live. He’s Jewish and his wife is a Democrat, two factors that could be spun quite nicely by GOP strategists. (Transparency note: Cantor’s wife, Diana,
serves on the board of trustees for the Star-Exponent’s parent company, Media General.)

To be fair, Cantor has downplayed the rumors he might run for president — but doesn’t every politician at some point? Still, don’t be surprised if you see him take a shot at the Oval
Office, whether in 2012 or some point down the road.

_____________________________________________

Kristofer Lorelli can be contacted at lorville@rogers.com, on Facebook and Twitter/Kris_Lorelli

by @ 11:17 am. Filed under 2012 Misc., Bobby Jindal

October 7, 2009

Poll Watch: Rasmussen Louisiana Political Survey

Rasmussen Louisiana Political Survey

2010 Senate Race

  • David Vitter (R) 46%
  • Charlie Melancon (D) 36%
  • Jay Dardenne (R) 46%
  • Charlie Melancon (D) 33%

Favorable / Unfavorable (Net)

  • Jay Dardenne 50% / 27% (+23%)
  • David Vitter 56% / 34% (+22%)
  • Charlie Melancon 43% / 39% (+4%)

How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President?

  • Strongly approve 34%
  • Somewhat approve 7%
  • Somewhat disapprove 8%
  • Strongly disapprove 51%

How would you rate the job Bobby Jindal has been doing as Governor?

  • Strongly approve 28%
  • Somewhat approve 37%
  • Somewhat disapprove 17%
  • Strongly disapprove 17%

Generally speaking, do you strongly favor, somewhat favor, somewhat oppose or strongly oppose the health care reform plan proposed by President Obama and the congressional Democrats?

  • Strongly favor 23%
  • Somewhat favor 13%
  • Somewhat oppose 8%
  • Strongly oppose 53%

If the health care reform plan passes, will the quality of health care get better, worse, or stay about the same?

  • Better 24%
  • Worse 60%
  • Stay the same 10%

If the health care reform plan passes, will the cost of health care go up, go down, or stay about the same?

  • The cost of health care will go up 58%
  • The cost will go down 18%
  • Stay the same 14%

Is the health care reform legislation being considered by Congress likely to increase the deficit, reduce the deficit, or have no impact on the deficit?

  • Increase the deficit 67%
  • Reduce the deficit 9%
  • Have no impact on the deficit 15%

To cover the cost of health care reform, how likely is it that taxes will have to be raised on the middle class?

  • Very likely 65%
  • Somewhat likely 18%
  • Not very likely 9%
  • Not at all likely 2%

In reacting to the nation’s current economic problems, what worries you more….that the federal government will do too much or that the federal government will not do enough?

  • Federal government will do too much 55%
  • Federal government will not do enough 31%

Generally speaking, how would you rate the U.S. economy these days? Excellent, good, fair, or poor?

  • Excellent 0%
  • Good 6%
  • Fair 43%
  • Poor 49%

Are economic conditions in the country getting better or worse?

  • Better 25%
  • Worse 47%
  • Staying the same 22%

Survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted October 5. The margin of error is +/- 4.5 percentage points.

Inside the numbers:

Vitter earns at least somewhat favorable reviews from 81% of Republicans.

by @ 5:03 pm. Filed under 2010, Barack Obama, Bobby Jindal, Poll Watch

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