July 16, 2014

Poll Watch: NBC News/Marist Michigan 2014 Senatorial Survey

NBC News/Marist Michigan 2014 Senate Poll

  • Gary Peters (D) 43%
  • Terri Lynn Land (R) 37%
  • Other 2%
  • Undecided 19%

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

  • Gary Peters 30% / 25% {+5%}
  • Terri Lynn Land 33% / 31% {+2%}

Survey of 870 registered voters was conducted July 7-10, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 3.3 percentage points.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 10:23 am. Filed under 2014, Poll Watch
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20 Responses to “Poll Watch: NBC News/Marist Michigan 2014 Senatorial Survey”

  1. Dave Says:

    Land can win this race, but it’s yet to be determined if she will. She can because every poll so far has Snyder winning reelection to the Governorship. The above-cited poll shows that 44% of voters in the state “strongly dislike” ObamaCare as of now, which is approximately 20 points more than the number of voters in the state who “strongly like” the abomination. Also, she has been elected statewide before, giving her a broader network of contacts than Peters.

    Republicans don’t need the race to take over the Senate. If the election were today, Republicans would wind up with 51 seats, and that without Michigan. Good thing it’s in November.

  2. Dave Says:

    btw,

    A Dem pollster just released a new Michigan poll that showed Peters with 39.5% and Land with 37.3%. This shows the race very much afoot.

    See the Campaign Spot, which Race has a link for.

  3. jj345 Says:

    1. 2. Let’s be real. Ouch. Bad numbers again.

  4. Jersey guy Says:

    Im surprised that Michigan didn’t have a competitive GOP primary. After all this an open seat and the best hope for a GOP win in this bluish state for awhile. Is Land that strong of a candidate that scared away other potential candidates. Cuz Peters is definitely beatable in a midterm.

  5. GS Says:

    Quinnipiac just released a poll showing Beauprez leading Hickenlooper by 1. I hope that gets posted along with the poll cited by Dave in #2.

  6. Etimodos Says:

    In Kansas, over 100 Republican politicians and activists back Davis over Brownback:

    http://insurancenewsnet.com/oarticle/2014/07/15/100-plus-gop-politicians-backing-democrat-davis-gop-santorum-dole-backing-br-a-530475.html

  7. Dave Says:

    Etimodos,

    I see Kansas as a probable Republican loss and Pennsylvania as a certain loss. A victory in Maine is improbable, but if it happens our incumbent will win with probably less than 40% of the vote in the 3-way contest.

    On the plus side, I see Illinois and Arkansas as pickups, and in Colorado and Hawaii I like our chances. I don’t know what’s going on in Connecticut, but it’s rated as a tossup by RCP.

    We have 29 Governors right now, and if I had to guess I’d guess we will have 30 coming out of the election. With a wave, it would be a little more.

  8. mike Says:

    Dave, that comment seems to completely ignore the assertion that many establishment Republicans are committing the sin that they would crucify others in the party for doing. They are openly supporting a Democrat, which if they were in a state like Florida, would violate their loyalty oath and they would be removed from the party. Of course, these are establishment types so nothing will happen.

  9. btp Says:

    We just need to keep unskewing all these polls where we’re down a bit and we’ll be fine, I think.

  10. Jersey guy Says:

    6. Shame on those RINOs! If they have an issue with Brownback they can endorse his primary opponent Jennifer Winn. They should not be endorsing a liberal dem.

  11. Dave Says:

    mike,

    If I were in Kansas, I’d bite the proverbial bullet and vote for Brownback, but I’ve never liked him.

  12. iowa Says:

    Dave has never been accused of supporting conservatives EVER. He loves the moderate in all cases.

  13. SteveT Says:

    Brownback is in trouble because he comes across as an unlikable jerk. There is still no way that I would be supporting the Dem in the race though.

  14. Massachusetts Conservative Says:

    I actually think it’s not such a guarantee the GOP wins the Senate. There are races that should be solid GOP wins that are currently tossups in AK, AR, KY, GA, LA, and NC. Between those plus IA and CO, the GOP needs 5 wins and the Dems only need 4. I’d say the Senate is a 50-50 tossup right now.

  15. SteveT Says:

    Yes the US Senate is still very much in doubt.

    The biggest problem for the GOP is that the party as a whole is very unpopular. We are only benefiting because of the slip ups of the Dems and because people have grown tired of Obama.

    The greatest hope for the GOP is very low turnout. Low turn out midterms is where the GOP has performed the best over the last twenty years, with the only exception for a general election being 2004.

  16. Dave Says:

    MassCon, Steve,

    My feeling is that there’s a wave coming and that Dem turnout will be low. RV polls can’t really foreshadow a wave almost 4 months out. They also can’t measure intensity.

    But there are other indicators that can. The special Congressional election in Florida early this year was an indicator. Republican turnout was down, but Dem turnout was down a lot more. Another is Obama’s approvals in the low 40’s and that, historically, incumbent members of the president’s party rarely get more than 5 points above the presidential approval number in off years.

    Polls also show dramatic drops in Obama’s popularity among groups such as Hispanics, young voters, and even Jews. It’s not that these blocs will go Republican, they won’t. But it looks like their turnout will be a lot lower, and their margins for Dems will drop. There are a lot of other straws in the wind, not the least of which is money raised.

    As I opined in #1, I believe that we will get 51 Senate seats if things don’t change, but I expect us to wind up with 7 or 8 new seats by November.

  17. 2014 Says:

    About a 50/50 toss up when it shoulda been a 70% chance at least.
    http://www.nytimes.com/newsgraphics/2014/senate-model/

  18. mark Says:

    Electionprojection.com, a web site that overestimated how well Republicans would do in 2012, is saying that Dems will hold on to the Senate and pick up a seat in the House.

    http://www.electionprojection.com/

  19. Infidel753 Says:

    16: There are a lot of other straws in the wind, not the least of which is money raised.

    Are you referring to money raised for Senate races?

    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jul/16/democrats-outspend-republicans-senate-races

  20. Dave Says:

    I’m referring to money in the bank. The RSCC has outraised, for example, its Dem counterpart by 2 to 1.

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