July 14, 2014

Poll Watch: SurveyUSA Florida 2014 Gubernatorial Survey

SurveyUSA Florida 2014 Gubernatorial Poll

  • Rick Scott (R) 45% {42%} [40%] (42%) {41%} [41%] (41%)
  • Charlie Crist (D) 43% {41%} [44%] (40%) {44%} [44%] (46%)

Among Democrats

  • Charlie Crist (D) 79% {75%} [82%] (77%) {80%} (80%)
  • Rick Scott (R) 10% {11%} [6%] (8%) {10%} (13%)

Among Republicans

  • Rick Scott (R) 79% {77%} [75%] (80%) {74%} (71%)
  • Charlie Crist (D) 13% {12%} [13%] (7%) {14%} (14%)

Among Independents

  • Rick Scott (R) 47% {40%} [39%] (39%) {41%} (43%)
  • Charlie Crist (D) 35% {32%} [35%] (31%) {36%} (40%)

Among Moderates

  • Charlie Crist (D) 51% {52%} [47%] (46%) {55%} (57%)
  • Rick Scott (R) 38% {28%} [31%] (34%) {30%} (33%)
Among Men

  • Rick Scott (R) 47% {49%} [45%] (49%) {49%} (41%)
  • Charlie Crist (D) 40% {36%} [39%] (35%) {37%} (47%)
Among Women
  • Charlie Crist (D) 46% {47%} [50%] (47%) {50%} (46%)
  • Rick Scott (R) 43% {35%} [34%] (35%) {33%} (42%)

Survey of 558 likely voters was conducted June 30 – July 2, 2014 for WFLA-TV.  The margin of error is +/- 4.2 percentage points. Party ID: 38% {40%} [38%] (39%) {37%} (38%) Democrat; 37% {37%} [38%] (37%) {37%} (34%) Republican; 24% {23%} [23%] (23%) {26%} (27%) Independent. Ideology: 42% {49%} [41%] (41%) {42%} (45%) Moderate; 33% {30%} [35%] (34%) {34%} (32%) Conservative; 21% {17%} [20%] (21%) {19%} (20%) Liberal. Gender: 51% {51%} [53%] (53%) {51%} (52%) Male; 49% {49%} [47%] (47%) {49%} (48%) Female. Results from the poll released June 20-23, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll released June 5-10, 2014 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll released May 20-22, 2014 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll released May 9-12, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll released April 29, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted April 10-14, 2014 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 10:21 am. Filed under 2014, Poll Watch
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8 Responses to “Poll Watch: SurveyUSA Florida 2014 Gubernatorial Survey”

  1. aintnosunshine Says:

    Incumbent at 45 is always doomed as Dave would say.

  2. aintnosunshine Says:

    And 43 among women. Put a fork in Scott.

  3. Jersey guy Says:

    1. Christ is sort of an incumbent too. He was governor of FL and he is only at 43%
    2. Romney lost FL women by 7, Scott is only down by 3
    1 & 2. Romney lost FL independents by 3%. If Scott is winning independents by 12% then it is game over for turncoat Charlie!
    http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/results/state/FL/president

  4. GS Says:

    The sad part of this for Crist is that he has 100% name recognition in FL and was actually a popular Governor and yet he’s still losing to the unpopular Scott. Shows how little Floridians think of Crist. Scott should be able to win this.

  5. Ogrepete Says:

    He was a popular governor until the evidence of him not telling the truth started to surface and he then decided to run as an Independent (and lost), and now as a Democrat.

  6. Nick in South Bend Says:

    Since this is a mid-term election, I like Scott’s chances if he is close in the polls. Older voters will turn out no matter what, no so much the democrat base…which is already slightly suspicious of Crist.

  7. Thomas Alan Says:

    Incumbent at 45 is always doomed as Dave would say.

    Normally, yes. When your opponent is your turncoat immediate predecessor, no.

    Scott’s on an upward trajectory against an opponent with probably better name ID than he has.

    Romney lost FL independents by 3%.

    Really? That’s weird. Romney won independents nationwide by a 5% margin.

  8. Dave Says:

    I’m glad to see several here picking up on the nuances of campaign analysis. To add to what has already been mentioned, when an incumbent is ahead, and is moving higher in the polls over a period of time against a very well known opponent, he’s in good shape.

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