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July 11, 2013

Poll Watch: PPP (D) Iowa 2016 Republican Caucus Survey

  2:56 pm

PPP (D) Iowa 2016 GOP Caucus Poll

  • Rand Paul 18% (15%) {5%} [11%] (9%)
  • Chris Christie 16% (12%) {12%} [16%] (15%)
  • Paul Ryan 15% (10%) {12%} [6%] (5%)
  • Jeb Bush 14% (14%) {11%} [8%] (10%)
  • Marco Rubio 11% (16%) {12%} [10%] (7%)
  • Ted Cruz 10%
  • Rick Santorum 6% {10%} [17%] (16%)
  • Bobby Jindal 2% (3%)
  • Susana Martinez 1% (4%)
  • Someone else/Not sure 7% (7%) {8%} [8%] (10%)

Among Men

  • Rand Paul 21% (14%) {6%} [16%] (10%)
  • Chris Christie 17% (12%) {14%} [15%] (17%)
  • Jeb Bush 13% (16%) {11%} [8%] (9%)
  • Ted Cruz 13%
  • Paul Ryan 11% (10%) {7%} [8%] (3%)
  • Marco Rubio 10% (17%) {15%} [8%] (9%)
  • Rick Santorum 5% {10%} [17%] (19%)
  • Bobby Jindal 4% (2%)
  • Susana Martinez 1% (5%)
  • Someone else/Not sure 4% (6%) {8%} [5%] (11%)

Among Women

  • Paul Ryan 19% (10%) {17%} [5%] (8%)
  • Chris Christie 16% (11%) {10%} [16%] (13%)
  • Jeb Bush 15% (12%) {11%} [8%] (12%)
  • Rand Paul 14% (16%) {5%} [5%] (8%)
  • Marco Rubio 12% (16%) {10%} [11%] (4%)   
  • Rick Santorum 7% {11%} [17%] (14%)
  • Ted Cruz 7%
  • Bobby Jindal 0% (5%)
  • Susana Martinez 0% (2%)
  • Someone else/Not sure 10% (8%) {9%} [10%] (10%)

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net} 

  • Paul Ryan 68% (63%) {83%} [49%] (44%) / 12% (16%) {13%} [14%] (8%) {+56%}
  • Rand Paul 60% (55%) {48%} [49%] (54%) / 15% (19%) {28%} [29%] (15%) {+45%}
  • Rick Santorum 57% {64%} [65%] (68%) / 15% {18%} [22%] (17%) {+42%}
  • Jeb Bush 58% (55%) {60%} [53%] (62%) / 17% (17%) {11%} [19%] (9%) {+41%}
  • Marco Rubio 54% (54%) {59%} [57%] (46%) / 14% (13%) {11%} [13%] (7%) {+40%}
  • Bobby Jindal 42% (43%) / 14% (11%) {+28%}
  • Chris Christie 45% (36%) {55%} [57%] (50%) / 27% (33%) {21%} [17%] (16%) {+18%}
  • Ted Cruz 27% / 12% {+15%}
  • Susana Martinez 18% (18%) / 12% (16%) {+6%}

Survey of 250 Republican voters was conducted July 5-7, 2013. The margin of error is +/- 6.2 percentage points.  Political ideology: 45%(43%) {36%} [37%] (46%) Very conservative; 33% (31%) {39%}[40%] (35%) Somewhat conservative; 16% (21%) {19%} [16%] (14%) Moderate; 5% (5%) {3%} [6%] (3%) Somewhat liberal; 1% (1%) {3%} [1%] (2%) Very liberal.  Results from the poll conducted February 1-3, 2013 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted November 3-4, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 12-15, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 3-6, 2012 are in parentheses.

Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal


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40 Responses to “Poll Watch: PPP (D) Iowa 2016 Republican Caucus Survey”

  1. C

    Blood bath.

  2. C

    Dow, S&P close at record highs. Is Obama good at anything? He’s not even good at being a communist!

  3. Dave in AZ

    Go Rand Paul. Chris Christie is doing rather well. If he can put in a good showing in IA he is going to be tough to beat because NH is his.

    2 – Thanks to Ben Bernanke’s big pocket book. Oh wait he is borrowing the money (QE2).

    Did anyone else notice how Ben waited for today to mention that he is backing stimulus for the foreseeable future as the same day jobless claims went up 16K. Things that make you go hmmm…

  4. Dave in AZ

    I also love how the Rickster comes in 7th place with a measly 6% after winning IA last year. This speaks to the quality of the Republican field this go around.

  5. Guy from Ohio

    So, assuming Paul wins Iowa (likely), and Christie wins New Hampshire (very likely), who wins South Carolina?

  6. Mr. Owl

    2. of course Obama is a good communist, he’s just tricking you right now by presiding over a capitalist economy that is doing well. also, he is a secret Muslim born in Africa who plans to destroy the nation with his secret terrorist connections. I didn’t watch the documentary personally, but from what I’ve heard from people on this website, the movie “obama’s america 2016” proves it and is the best documentary ever. why are we even talking about a race in 2016 that won’t happen when we should all be gathering as many bananas as possible for when the radiation turns us into monkeys.

    sarcasm aside; it seems that other Christie and Paul are slowly solidifying themselves as the moderate candidate of choice and the conservative/libertarian candidate of choice in that respective order.

  7. Mr. Owl

    also, what are the chances that Paul Ryan will run? I don’t think this would be a good moment for him, he’s still young so he could run later, and he’s not a very good candidate to begin with so i don’t think he will, but i want to hear other people’s analyses. mine might be a bit skewed since i think he’s an idiot.

  8. Dave in AZ

    7 — You should change your name to a little less intelligent bird. Maybe a crow, or perhaps a humming bird would fit you better.

    Rand Paul is 50 which makes him one year younger then your beloved president who if you can’t do the math would be much younger when he started to run for office.

    I think Rand Paul will run because heck we can’t do much worse than the incompetent fool we have in office today that has to delay his own signature bill multiple times and has made himself look so small in the eyes of the world. No one respects him abroad and I mean no one.

    Seriously wake up.

    Why don’t you find a more suitable site like slant AKA “Slate” or Salon AKA “Saloon” its readers could relate to you much better don’t you think.

  9. Firecracker

    I really don’t think Santorum coming in at 7th says anything about the quality of the Republican field for 2016. Santorum was the last man standing of all of the anti-Romneys becuase no one took him seriously and he was chosen by voters as a last ditch to take down Romney in Iowa. His 7th place standing in this poll is only indicative of what a terrible, awful candidate he was in 2012 and was only voted by default from the anti-Romneys.

    Having said that, I still think the 2016 will also be relatively weak. I believe Chris Christie is the ONLY candiate that can take back the White House. Rand Paul, while I love him as a Senator, would not be strong enough to take down the Hillary machine.

    The rest of the field, IMO, is completely irrelevant.

  10. Guy from Ohio

    8 I’ve been to those sites, and there’s no fun in reading a comments section where everybody agrees with you.

  11. Dave in AZ

    9 — I hear what you are saying but you kind of proved my point with the Anti-Romney bit. We wouldn’t had have to go through all of that if we had a better candidate or candidates.

    I do think Rand would have a tougher time taking out Hillary but as we saw in 2012 and 2008 potential candidates are made when they campaign. Look where Obama came from. Nowhere. Look at how Tim Pawlenty and Rick Perry had so much going for them but completely flopped. While I have to admit Christie has proven himself capable in this arena I also think Rand does and will do quite well. Time will tell. Rubio is another story and Ryan/Cruz to me is a question mark.

    I do hope they have less debates this time around. Maybe 6-8 total.

    Honestly I wasn’t around with Reagan and so all I have had to deal with is the Bush’s, Clinton, and Obama so any of these I listed would be incredible improvement on what I have seen in my lifetime. I don’t want another Clinton or Bush so I will take just about anyone who can end this elite class of people.

    We need new blood.


  12. Gordon

    9. Completely agree with one caveat…I think Rubio will have chance to proclaim the conservative mantle…but yes, unless Jeb runs, the rest of the field is completely irrelevant.

  13. Gordon

    11. We always could use New Blood…but its politics and finding “rockstars” in politics is tough…the most amazing leaders and charismatic people shun the circus…with good reason I might add.

  14. Guy from Ohio

    What ever happened to Harper polling?

  15. Jonathan

    I’m curious where Congressman Ryan’s support will go when he announces he isn’t going to run. As much as I love Paul Ryan (he’s my first choice), I just don’t see him running. His wife didn’t really enjoy the experience and his kids are still really young. I could easily see him becoming Speaker when Boehner is done, and I think that’s what he’s aiming for.

  16. Mr. Owl

    8. Interesting that you suggest that i am stupid yet you cannot properly read the very post you are responding to. i asked if PAUL RYAN would run, not RAND PAUL; obviously Rand Paul is running; he’s pretty much said it straight out.

    also, i’m not that fond of Obama. he’s overall been a disappointment and a hypocrite. I was just making fun of the many conspiracy theories that have arisen about Obama, none of which are substantiated and none of which are reflected in his policies. He’s a liberal who has traded away much of his values for convenience and nothing more. History might remember him as something different, but i will remember him as a mediocre representation of what the united states could do.

    third, i can go to whichever website i choose. i choose this one, because i often find differing opinions than myself and i enjoy hearing them regardless of how much i may disagree with them. perhaps you come hear to hear a chorus of approval and agreement for your posts and get some validation that you are otherwise lacking, but i do not share your purpose so i shall remain here and keep on posting.

  17. Mr. Owl

    9. i agree with you, that Christie is the only one that has a shot. there is the myth that the GOP has a strong pool for 2016, but that is just not the case. when you look at candidates that have a chance at winning v Hillary, Christie is the only one that has a shot. any of the other candidates makes almost every safe state into a battleground state and there aren’t the resources to compete in all of them. Even Christie will put a few safish states into the battleground, so he’s going to be likely strapped for cash. Christie v Hillary is going to probably be a long and gory campaign.

  18. Massachusetts Conservative

    From a pure entertainment standpoint, Hillary vs. Christie is about as good as it gets.

  19. Enrique


    Plus, Christie is probably the only candidate that will effortlessly bring out Hillary’s mean-angry-bitch side.

  20. Enrique

    Hillary’s shrill screaming voice is our clearest path to victory. We need to provoke it.

  21. Martha

    20. Ha ha, Enrique. Yes it is awful, but people still like her anyway! I can’t figure it out other than people are just plain stupid sometimes.

    Listen, we had our first black pres, and now we need a woman is going to be a mighty hard narrative to overcome. It’s almost hopeless, IMO.

  22. Mr. Owl

    20. you made my day with the visual of Hillary wildly screaming and flailing at Christie.

  23. Heath

    Rubio v Thune v Paul.

    Only wild cards Huck & Ricky S as the Iowans love them.

    Hearing that Jindal isn’t running :(.

    Christie is a non issue. Iowa will be the death of him. Won’t break 15%. Forget these polls 30 months out.

  24. Heath

    Shit forgot John Bush!

  25. Jerald

    #15 Jonathan

    I love Ryan too, but I don’t want him to run.
    Why waste a good man on a bunch of people in his own party who won’t support him and then will blame it on him if Hillary wins.

    It’s funny that everybody is talking about a “strong” field this time. LOL, that’s what they were saying last time until everybody but Romney and Pawlenty declined to run.

    I’ll get interested after people actually start to announce.

    The fancy dancing that will be going on until Hillary declares one way or the other will be interesting to watch…

  26. Jerald

    #21 Martha,

    That’s how I read the tea leaves too.

    As long as Hillary is still somewhat sane and mobile, she will be slid into the “first female President” slot…

  27. Joe


    Very true. If Paul and Rubio decide to hold onto their Senate seats rather than compete to get slaughtered by Clinton, Ryan stays in the House and Bush doesn’t try and become the third guy in his family to become President, it’s basically Chris Christie vs Rick Santorum.

  28. Mr. Owl

    23. Christie being a non issue is a ridiculous notion. Christie will lose Iowa, that would be almost assured. he would win New Hampshire, though, and thus be well placed in the primary. GOP candidates never win both Iowa and NH, but you need to win one of them to gain momentum.

  29. Spud

    It’s not impossible for Paul to pick up Iowa and New Hampshire. Given that he’d pick uo a significant portion of his father’s support, and that there’s a libertarian streak in NH, he could get it. As for Iowa, his odds of winning that are even better, with a floor of around 20% he’s going to be very challanging to run against there, in the primaries. While winning both states is by no means a sure thing, he has as good of a potential of doing so as anybody has in recent years.

    I’m not sure why people automatically give NH to Christie. He’d have a really tough time defending himself from any kind of fight from the right, and rightfully so.

  30. Yan

    29. Christie will not be just defending himself from the right, but more from the libertarian streak you mentioned. If Ron Paul’s 2012 results are any indication (21% Iowa 3rd and 23% NH 2nd), Rand Paul could very well win Iowa and New Hampshire….and, between him and Christie, I would say Rand Paul has the better shot at South Carolina. Seems to me he’s got the inside track on the nomination…

    Could anyone tell me why Paul Ryan would be a good candidate? The ridiculous budget disaster, being part of a losing 2012 campaign, jumping on the non-conservative immigration bandwagon with Rubio….I’m failing to see any positives worth mentioning with these negatives.

  31. Wild Onion

    They didn’t even poll who will eventually win Iowa: Scott Walker.

  32. Ryan60657

    Rand Paul will win Iowa. Chris Christie will win New Hampshire. It will be a two-horse race between Limited Government and Compassionate Big Government. Big Ideas vs. Big Character.

  33. Jerald

    #30 Yan

    The question is, would he be a good President.

    Confusing great candidate with great President is what is screwing up the country.

    Just wondering, why is the budget disaster Ryan’s fault?

  34. Yan

    33. Maybe I’m being unfair, but didn’t he provide leadership and try to sell us a budget that was “balanced” in thirty years? That’s a complete joke considering future Congress(es) are not bound. 5 year, maybe even 10 years there will still be some of the same guys/gals in office who might have to keep their word, but in 30 years a whole new generation of Congressfolk will be in office!

    32. Why are you convinced Christie will win NH? Didn’t Romney dominate that primary mostly because he was quasi-hometown hero considering he has a residence in NH (IIRC) and was a governor of Mass.? Would Christie get that kind of preference simply because he’s a NorthEast governor? I’m not so sure…otherwise, I would have to agree with the: “two-horse race between Limited Government and Compassionate Big Government”. I think I lean towards Spud’s opinion in #29, and, further, I think he would win S.C. and then it will be almost impossible to deny him the nomination at that point.

    Either way, I would be happy with Christie or Paul.

  35. OHIO JOE

    Glad to see the party finally moving to the Right!

  36. Wild Onion

    Rand Paul will not win Iowa. At best, he will come up a few points short of his dad.

  37. Ryan60657

    I think I could learn to live with and possibly even support Christie, but would definitely prefer to have Rand Paul.

  38. Huckarubio

    Huckabee would still be 1 or 2 in Iowa if he were polled.

  39. CONDOLEEZA2016

    I like Paul. He is smart, young and tough. Turncoat Christie does not deserve to get the republican nomination for the things he has done.

    But my dream candidate is Condi. Imagine a Clinton vs Condi race………that would be phenomenal.

  40. packeryman

    Yan, you don”t seem to comprehend that Rand Paul, Paul Ryan, Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio Walker don’t resonate with the American public on a national scene, only within the party and a small portion with the radical extremest right view. With the social conservative, immigration, anti women, gay, and minorities rights, this party is going nowhere. Hold on to those you got, because the tent will not be growing bigger.Watch the 2016 elections and reap the same results as you did watching the 2012 polls. You guys are going to have to speak with others outside the far right cult to understand the changing America you are now living in. Change is coming and it is not the direction you believe.

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