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April 25, 2013

Poll Watch: PPP (D) New Hampshire 2016 Republican Presidential Primary Survey

  3:43 pm

PPP (D) New Hampshire 2016 GOP Presidential Primary Poll

Given the choices of Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, Bobby Jindal, Susana Martinez, Rand Paul, Rick Perry, Marco Rubio, Paul Ryan, and Rick Santorum, who would you most like to see as the GOP candidate for President in 2016?

  • Rand Paul 28% [4%] (10%)
  • Marco Rubio 25% [14%] (12%)
  • Chris Christie 14% [21%] (24%)
  • Jeb Bush 7% [11%] (15%)
  • Paul Ryan 7% [10%] (8%)
  • Rick Santorum 4% [5%] (7%)
  • Susana Martinez 3%
  • Bobby Jindal 1%
  • Rick Perry 1%
  • Someone else/Not sure 11% [10%] (2%)

Among Republicans

  • Marco Rubio 29% [15%] (13%)
  • Rand Paul 26% [4%] (9%)
  • Paul Ryan 10% [10%] (10%)
  • Chris Christie 9% [22%] (21%)
  • Jeb Bush 6% [13%] (15%)
  • Rick Santorum 6% [5%] (8%)
  • Susana Martinez 3%
  • Bobby Jindal 1%
  • Rick Perry 1%
  • Someone else/Not sure 9% [8%] (2%)

Among Independents

  • Rand Paul 32% [3%] (12%)
  • Chris Christie 19% [21%] (33%)
  • Marco Rubio 17% [11%] (10%)
  • Jeb Bush 10% [8%] (14%)
  • Susana Martinez 3%
  • Paul Ryan 1% [10%] (5%)
  • Rick Santorum 1% [4%] (4%)
  • Bobby Jindal 1%
  • Rick Perry 1%
  • Someone else/Not sure 14% [14%] (2%)

Among Men

  • Rand Paul 33%
  • Marco Rubio 22%
  • Chris Christie 13%
  • Jeb Bush 9%
  • Paul Ryan 7%
  • Rick Santorum 3%
  • Bobby Jindal 2%
  • Susana Martinez 1%
  • Rick Perry 0%
  • Someone else/Not sure 9%

Among Women

  • Marco Rubio 27%
  • Rand Paul 22%
  • Chris Christie 14%
  • Paul Ryan 6%
  • Jeb Bush 6%
  • Rick Santorum 5%
  • Susana Martinez 5%
  • Rick Perry 1%
  • Bobby Jindal 0%
  • Someone else/Not sure 12%

Survey of 409 Republican primary voters was conducted April 19-21, 2013.  The margin of error is +/- 4.9 percentage points.  Party ID: 59% [66%] (66%) Republican; 40% [33%] (33%) Independent/Other; 1% [1%] (2%) Democrat.  Political ideology: 41% [43%] (43%) Somewhat conservative; 32% [29%] (31%) Very conservative; 23% [24%] (21%)Moderate; 3% [4%] (4%) Somewhat liberal; 1% [1%] (1%) Very liberalResults from the poll conducted November 3-4, 2012 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted August 9-12, 2012 are in parentheses.

Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal


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31 Responses to “Poll Watch: PPP (D) New Hampshire 2016 Republican Presidential Primary Survey”

  1. jersey guy

    The top 4 choices are all unacceptable.Ironically it’s from the bottom 5 vote getters who I would choose from. PPP has way too much time on their hands. It’s still waaaaaaay too early.

  2. GS

    I’ll give you Martinez, Jindal, and Ryan, but Santorum and Perry? Both are embarrassments…in very different ways.

  3. Guy


  4. Steve

    We must nominate Susana Martinez.

  5. emma43

    Paul Ryan is behaving a bit too much like Boehner’s lackey. What’s with him on immigration? I’m not giving up on him but still…..

    I think the dark horse is Jeb. The Bushes have been planning this for nigh over a decade. So after Jeb they gonna try his son George P Bush? We can have 1,2,3,4. A nice dynasty like over in Europe.

  6. Evita Vresnoc

    Interesting that the guy most vilified in comments here is actually leading among rank-and-file Republicans, at least in New Hampshire.

  7. packeryman

    The only candidate that will be acceptable to the American public is Christ Christi, the rest are history on the national scene. The American public will not buy the B.S. of the far right, bible thumpers, tea baggers, secessionists, and a group of Republicans that want to impose their views, be it moral, religious, etc.on others through legislation.We the Independents, Moderates, Women, Minorities, Labor, Gays, Log Cabin Republicans ,Libertarians, and the youth of the nation must unite and go to the polls in 2014, join with the Dem’s, pull the Democrat lever to dump these GOP radicals at every level of government, this helps replace judges at all levels thet are elected.We must stop these obstructionist. They had their four years of doing nothing but trying to stop the reelection of Obama, They failed big time due to their message(remember they thought they were a shoe-in because of the economy)a few realize what happened, they know the American voter will not buy social conservatism ,be it womens rights, gay rights, immigration, and the idea that when they grab control of a state they began passing legislation against above listed rights. Then they really cross the line by trying to limit days, hours of voting, reducing the number of voting machines in minority voting districts.This calls for a national uprising against the GOP at the polls in 2014/2016. It is a necessity for the survival of the nation.

  8. Nick In South Bend

    5. I agree on Jeb being strong. I refuse to call him a dark horse though…I think he is the leader in the clubhouse until someone knocks him off.

  9. Massachusetts Conservative

    This does not surprise me.

    2016 is going to be a dogfight.

  10. Jonathan

    I’d much rather have to choose between this field and the one the Democrats will offer. Aside from Hillary (who I still believe is not the invincible juggernaut the press portrays her as) who do they have? Biden? The nation’s punchline for the Obama years? Cuomo? O’Malley? Gillibrand? Rather sad lot if you ask me.

  11. Matthew Kilburn

    “they know the American voter will not buy social conservatism”

    Then America is dead. Not worth saving. Not possible to save. Not capable of providing a return on the time, effort, energy, blood, sweat, and tears that a political campaign requires.

    Without families, without marriage, without mothers and father to have and raise children, without the children themselves, we have no future. “Whatever keeps my pocketbook thick” or “whatever makes the gays feel good” will not preserve our country.

    You people who “will not buy social conservatism” – who pushed a culture of divorce, and childlessness, and perpetual adolescence, and selfish personal gratification are the reason we are in the mess we are in today.

    You cannot have a strong country, you cannot have a strong economy, you cannot have a strong military, you cannot retain your role in the world…unless you are built on a solid foundation. Period. There is no future in children who come home to an empty home. There is no future in forty-somethings who never get married and try to act like high school freshmen. There is no future in actively embracing and promoting alternative lifestyles (whatever they may be) that detract from our support for the traditional social model.

    A graying, aging, dying America is the end of America. But that’s exactly where the social liberals are pushing us.

  12. JT

    Oh Dear God. Just kill yourself already and put us out of your misery.

  13. Win M.

    11. You’re coming unglued. Take your meds.

  14. Matthew Kilburn

    You know, its funny. People like to criticize….and offer no support for their argument.

    Pick anything I said about the importance of children and families to our society and our future, dispute it, and back it up with a good case.

    I’m listening.

  15. Spud

    @7: what? No. Christie is unelectable nationally as a republican. He could probably get the dem nomination though. How many anti-gun republicans have won the primaries in the last 30 years? 0.

    @14: I agree with most of your socon issues. I disagree that they have a place in government with the weight of law. They’re social issues and we should promote them socially.

  16. Matthew Kilburn

    “I disagree that they have a place in government with the weight of law. They’re social issues and we should promote them socially.”

    And, absent other factors, I would probably agree with you. But here’s the thing…we’ve TRIED promoting them through other means. and we’ve failed. Churches have failed. Families have failed. Schools have failed. Social institutions have failed. And media campaigns have failed. By no means would I suggest we run to government at the first sign of a challenge. Yet when we have something that *is* essential to our future, and we have progressed through a long list of alternative methods….what else is left?

  17. JT

    It’s not just this post. It’s that you make grand morose and despairing posts on every subject every day. And every time you predict something you are wrong. You are a worn out drama queen

  18. emma43


    We cannot change a person’s heart or morality, which is what drives the social issue debate, with laws.

    This is why I don’t care that much about gay marriage. As a religious issue, sure, but for a legal matter, I think legal opposition is fruitless. Because legality or illegality won’t change what matters, the heart of the American people.

    And think about it. We want strong families, morals ect. One of the most fundamental things that achieves those things is having that innate desire or inclination to do the right thing. It comes from within. You can’t police that. And it kind of goes against the very nature of what we want to achieve to legislate it or force it.

    We believe in freedom. Well, that means America has the freedom to make bad choices, and that includes on social issues.

    And are we going to do what the left does? Look to government to achieve our ends, be out answer? I know you said we only do that as a last resort but does it still justify the means?

    If the right wants to change the culture they have to engage it on a grassroots levels. I’ve know what the left does, how it organizes, and they are far more dedicated to the cause than us. With their time, their speech, their willingness to fight, to risk, they wear it almost as a badge of honor. Some conservatives do as well, but they are just as frequently afraid and just want to do their own thing.

    What else is left? To try and stop the decline. Like let’s consider the Roman empire, it didn’t just overnight transition from rule of law to rule of ambitious men. It took decades, centuries even of progressively more brazen acts disregarding the rule of law.

    We might very well, lose, in all probability we will lose. But there is not reason to give up hope now. Because it can get a lot worse. Just look at England. A century ago the greatest empire in the world and now they are barely a shadow of their former selves. In ten years, we may look back at the Obama years when we gave up (not speaking of you necessarily but conservatives in general) and wish we could go back. Maybe we’ll even miss Clinton. Who knows?

  19. Jerald

    I second Emma in #18.

    Also, I really hope the GOP field doesn’t cannabilize each other in the primary like they did in 2008 and 2012.

    Lots of good people may be running. Let’s not demonize them.

    Also, since Santorum and Perry proved themselves to be campaign jerks, let’s hope they stay on the sidelines this time…

  20. Xdem

    “grand morose and despairing posts?”

    There’s plenty of reason to despair and we need not be afraid of reality. We’ll grow out of these times. Matthew Kilburn is right about many things, most of all, the reminders of traditions that shouldn’t be abandoned just because they aren’t fashionable at the moment. Time will tell.

    Emma43 makes some solid points especially the freedom to make bad choices. It happens. That’s an insightful statement. That’s how we learn as a whole.

    I think most of us know that the family and old fashioned morals are important. We might not like it, but social conservatives are necessary to keep the homespun behaviors alive. It’s a bad idea to forcefully separate people from their religious convictions. They need them and to try and make them feel ashamed of their faith is cruel and even dangerous. Needed inspiration emerges from American churches along with the negatives. Belief in the goodness of life sees a lot of frightened people through their troubles and the absence of something larger to believe in is hurting many of us now. Some of the ministries are doing a good job providing warmth and sanctuary as they should.

    Social change grows organically out of conditions of the times. I grew up in a more innocent era when family shows were a symbol of our longings. Even when the culture inched into political territory, the glue of family togetherness prevailed. I think the war left too many families fractured, so maybe Americans relied on their family values in hopes of reconstructing their security and coping with their losses. Now that families are once again disintegrating, we might see a resurgence of these values.

    Neither the Leftist principles nor those of the Right are as dangerous as some believe. They both have a place as traditions move along in their natural evolution. More than changing the culture, I think we can only react and adjust and stay true to ourselves. We can only judge in retrospect. I do think that the Left should not be feared as much as some are doing, especially when the crowd whips the fear up into a frenzy.

    People know not. Many have scant experience with hatred of a select group and the attack on conservatives is worrisome no doubt. But they’ll learn. Give it time. Don’t let them spook you.

    I’m glad they didn’t let Obama hijack the library opening today. Apparently, people are realizing that hating George Bush is useless. He’s painting pictures and laughing. And the terror rolls on without him. Obama is on his own. I bet he’ll be as glad to get this over with as we will. His place on Mt. Rushmore is no longer reserved.

    Peggy Noonan wrote a good article today. You can find a quick click on RCP.

  21. Matthew Kilburn

    #18 –

    I’m not sold that the reasoning actually matters much. From an internal perspective, sure. And if you actually want to devolve into the morality/religion/etc. debate….that’s for another time. Maybe its a matter of the right thing being done for the wrong reasons, but its still the right thing to be done. Whether I give to charity because I have a sincere internal desire to help the poor, or because I want to look good in front of other people, does that ultimately change the fact that I helped the needy? No.


    “There’s plenty of reason to despair and we need not be afraid of reality.”

    …we need not be afraid of admitting reality. That reality, unfortunately, does provide us a great deal to be afraid of.


    This nation has everything in its power to be twice as strong as it is today. We have five times the arable land of China. We have domestic energy supplies for at least a century. We are surrounded on three sides by water that provides access for trade and transport. We are protected against any immediate threat of invasion by any number of factors. We have well-establish legal, political, educational, and economic systems that – though imperfect – nonethless provide the necessary ingredients for strength. We have EVERYTHING that any country could ask for, except for the willpower in the personal behavior of our citizens….and because we’re missing that one thing, because we have abandoned the traditional social and cultural foundations, we are throwing away everything else.

  22. Massachusetts Conservative


    Yes, I agree. But Hillary is very strong, even if she is not unstoppable. If she doesn’t run, our odds soar.

  23. Enrique

    If other candidates attack Rubio on immigration, republicans deserve to lose 2/3 of the latino vote again.

    We need to stop being the idiot party, aka Thomas Alan.

  24. Granny T

    7, Through us right wing Bible thumpers under the bus and see what happens.

    “Can the liberties of a nation be thought secure when we have removed their only firm basis, a conviction in the minds of the people that these liberties are of the gift of God? That they are not to be violated but with his wrath? Indeed I tremble for my country when I reflect that God is just: that his justice can not sleep forever:” ~ Thomas Jefferson

  25. HYUFD

    Following Mike’s post previous thread it now looks entirely possible that were Santorum to repeat his 2012 Iowa win in 2016 and Rand Paul to win in NH there would be a clash to the death between the libertarian and socially conservative wings of the GOP. Meantime Hillary, with virtually no real challenge for the Dem nomination if she runs, can go about measuring the drapes in the Oval Office!

  26. Martha

    I can’t believe people are still talking about our chances in 2016 like it’s politics as usual. I just don’t think it is. 2012 ought to have taught us something. Life isn’t normal anymore. Even a perfect Republican candidate would have a small chance. Romney losing is only a symptom of a much larger problem.

    I hope not, but we may have seen the last decent president in George Bush. Our culture is in such decline that it will take something huge to set us straight. Matthew is right. We need to rebuild the foundation of home and family and traditional values. For crying out loud, in the present America, Obama can say GOD BLESS YOU to the butchers in Planned Parenthood, and nobody cares.

  27. Jerald

    #24 Granny T,

    Packeryman is a liberal. He already through all of us under the bus…

  28. packeryman

    #16,Yes, promote them and the American public will lump all the far right together, Republicans, Army of God, Operation Rescue(the Clinton administration put some hurts this organization, hadn’t heard much from them lately}Tea baggers, etc. The party following such advice is on the road to self destruction.

  29. Pablo

    I agree with Packeryman, although I am one of those said Bible-thumpers. In fact, it is precisely why I am a Bible-thumper that I understand why the social conservative movement (an attempt to contain immorality through legislation) is doomed to failure. They gay marriage debate is already over as well as many other social conservative causes. The only way the Republican Party wins again is if it nominates a candiate that has a broader appeal to the general public. It won´t do that, but that is what it needs to do. Christie has that appeal, not sure about the rest.

  30. Pablo

    23. Enrique, I fully expect Rubio to get bombarded, and not necessarily by the other candidates but by many of conservative punditry. His boldness on immigration means that him and Christie are the only two candidates I could vote for, but Rubio is going to have to suck up a lot to the pundits if he wants to win the nomination.

  31. packeryman

    #24, bible thumpers under the bus, no, just leave religious beliefs out of the government and stop trying to pass your religious beliefs, doctrines, dogmas, and your view of morality on others. This is why America is ticked with the fanatical religious right. Come back to some sense of reality, as Pablo says,or you will to continue to lose the national voter.

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