April 3, 2013

Poll Watch: PPP (D) 2016 Republican Nomination Survey

  1:24 pm

PPP (D) 2016 GOP Nomination Poll 

Given the choices of Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, Bobby Jindal, Susana Martinez, Rand Paul, Rick Perry, Marco Rubio, Paul Ryan, and Rick Santorum, who would you most like to see as the GOP candidate for President in 2016? 

  • Marco Rubio 21% (22%) {21%} [18%] (10%)
  • Rand Paul 17% (10%) {5%} [7%] (4%)
  • Chris Christie 15% (13%) {14%} [14%] (21%)
  • Paul Ryan 12% (15%) {16%} [12%] (7%)
  • Jeb Bush 12% (13%) {14%} [12%] (17%)
  • Rick Santorum 5% [4%] (12%)
  • Bobby Jindal 4% (4%) {3%} (3%)
  • Rick Perry 2% (3%) {2%}
  • Susana Martinez 1% (1%) {2%}
  • Someone else/Undecided 10% (8%) {7%} [7%] (10%)

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net} 

  • Paul Ryan 75% (78%) {76%} [74%] (47%) / 11% (9%) {11%} [15%] (11%) {+64%} 
  • Marco Rubio 62% (59%) {60%} [62%] (53%) / 10% (12%) {11%} [11%] (10%) {+52%}
  • Rand Paul 60% (61%) {55%} [53%] (42%) / 16% (13%) {20%} [22%] (20%) {+44%}
  • Jeb Bush 51% (59%) {59%} [63%] (71%) / 16% (12%) {15%} [14%] (13%) {+35%}
  • Bobby Jindal 42% (46%) {47%} (43%) / 10% (10%) {11%} (9%) {+32%}
  • Rick Santorum 49% [56%] (63%) / 18% [17%] (23%) {+31%}
  • Rick Perry 43% (48%) {40%} / 21% (16%) {26%} {+22%}
  • Chris Christie 41% (42%) {44%} [49%] (62%) / 29% (27%) {29%} [28%] (12%) {+12%}
  • Susana Martinez 16% (19%) {23%} / 16% (14%) {15%} {0%}

Survey of 1,125 Republican primary voters was conducted March 27-30, 2013.  The margin of error is +/- 2.9 percentage points.  Political ideology: 39% (41%) {37%} [39%] (36%) Very conservative; 35% (41%) {39%} [38%] (41%) Somewhat conservative; 19% (14%) {16%}[16%] (16%) Moderate; 5% (2%) {5%} [6%] (4%) Somewhat liberal; 1% (1%) {2%} [1%] (3%) Very liberal.  Results from the poll conductedJanuary 31 – February 3, 2013 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted January 3-6, 2013 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 30 – December 2, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 12-15, 2012 are in parentheses.

Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal



by Oldest
by Best by Newest by Oldest

Christie better fix his unpopularity with the base quick if that's even possible to have any chance at 2016. I don't get why Suzanna Martinez doesn't have better favorable ratings. She would be someone to get a good look at as a possible contender. Out of this crop I'd choose her. I guess according to PPP I'm part of the 1%!


Did you guys see that we nominated Sanford? What is wrong with this party? Either we lose by looking like hypocrites, or we lose by losing. It's a lose-lose scenerio.


We as republicans need to close the women/Latino deficit we have.

Latino + Woman = Susana Martinez

It's simple math!!!!!!


2. It's SC for gods sake! They chose the worse 2 candidates the last 2 cycles McCain in 08 and Gingrich in 12. They did pick Nikki Haley though.

Nick In South Bend

2. Its shameful.


3. Martinez should be judged based on her record and positions which are pretty impressive so far than her sex and race. Democrats are all about race and gender bating. That's why in 08 they passed on more qualified candidates for the inexperienced black guy and the polarizing unqualified woman.


Sanford has balls:


I think the states should decide if Mark Sanford should be able to get married again


7. Hopefully Sanford wins the seat and doesn't make too much noise in Congress.



unqualified woman

Women U.S. Senators are unqualified?

You know it's a hard club to get in



She was up on the stage beside him beaming about her Daddy, I mean new boyfriend

I think she becomes the Argentinian toast of D.C.


10. That is correct. Hillary Clinton in 08 was unqualified. She was in the senate barely in her 2nd term and hadn't accomplished much. Not to bring up Palin but as much as she wasn't prepared for the presidency she had more executive experience than Hillary back in 08.


Marco Rubio 21%

Jeb Bush 12%

One of these don't belong and would go a long way in resurrecting their family name by endorsing and throwing establishment support ($$$) towards the more popular Floridian of the two



According to a Quinnipiac poll released today, if the election were held today 43 percent of the electorate would support a Democratic U.S. House candidate, as opposed to just 35 percent who would back a Republican

That 8 point lead for Dems is significantly more than the GOP’s margin of victory during the 2010 GOP wave election (6.6 percent) and even more that the Dems margin of victory during the 2006 wave (7.9 percent) — when the lucky Dems were bolstered by both an unpopular Republican president and a failing war in Iraq

And yet, if the dirty rotten Dems succeed in maintaining this substantial lead through next year’s congressional election, they will likely emerge with a tiny majority


..of about 5 seats


Rand Paul will be speaking at a historically black college, Howard University, next week.



Christie at only +12. Take that, fatass.


Rombot, do you even have a job? My goodness stop the stream of consciousness.


What jobs? Mitt lost :(


stream of consciousness?

I do enjoy the works of James Joyce, Virginia Woolf, and William Faulkner

Nick In South Bend

16. I will be very interested to see what he chooses to speak about and how that goes for him.


Calling fat politicians "fatass" shows such unique intelligence and political awareness

Good job


So basically we have 5 front-runners. If we have even just 3 of them run, it'll be a pretty interesting race with candidates who reflect different ideas and impulses within the GOP. The "invisible primary" will be interesting to watch. The Governor's will be trying to implement conservative policies and the Legislators will be introducing and debating conservative bills.

Nick In South Bend

If it is just those five double digit candidates, either Jeb or Rubio will not run (I happen to think Rubio would defer to Jeb). I happen to think Jeb's position in that pack is relatively strong in the primary given that group he would be running against (which is impossible to know for sure at this point anyway).


19 - Great comment :-)

Christie...what to think of his chances. Obviously he is generally popular right now and he seems to have the most crossover appeal. As others have noted, however, he has significant problems with the base after the non-stop Obama hugging after Sandy. Can he turn the tide come 2016? I think so. After his re-election he will focus a good deal of his time on making up with the base by throwing a lot of red meat out there. And face it, he will be one of few well known gouvernors running for office. I doubt Bush will run, same for McDonnell and Walker. Jindal, probably. Martinez, no clue. The point is Christie will have to 2 things going for him that Rubio, Paul, Ryan don't have: executive experience and proven crossover appeal. Christie might well be the establishment candidate come 2016. It's just... the weight...


24 - Jeb has never struck me as a guy who as enough fire in his belly to run for office.


#23 Jonathan

It might be interesting....unless Hillary runs.

Then we will see all the excuse making and bailing as none of the front runners want to get blamed for the loss.

I say we push for a Rick Perry/Michele Bachmann ticket and get used to laughing at ourselves.

We could have run Huckabee (he, of course, would not want to face Hillary either), but as he demonstrated with his recent "Evangelicals didn't turn out in 2012" comment, he still has serious trouble with math. Not the man we need to tackle the country's numbers problem (economy, budget, debt)...


#25 Dutchie

In another time and place, they would call all of that manuvering, "flip-flopping" and declare he has no core values, etc., etc...


I wonder where the support for Paul Ryan in the Quinnipiac poll went in this one.

Nick In South Bend

29. I would imagine the small sample size effects everything. Since you have so many candidates, and only 1125 respondents...a well selected group A will have quite different results from a well selected group B I would imagine. Totally different dynamic than when you have only two choices.


Christie would clearly be strongest GOP candidate at this point, but Dems like him better than Republicans


Nick In South Bend

31. "but Dems like him better than Republicans"

He cannot possibly be the strongest GOP candidate, if the other party likes him more than his own.



The Bible Thumpers (as Bill O'Reilly callem them this week) ACTUALLY did not turnout to support Mitt in "the swings" of Ohio, Florida, Colorado, Nevada, etc



It's what their PPP showed (as did the new Marist 2016 National Presidential Survey)

I'm sure Kavon will put them both polls up when he gets the time - since they're now both up at The Argo Journal


callem=called* them

Nick In South Bend

Highest numbers out of ten candidates does not mean the strongest candidates though. That is my point. If he was near 50%, then he would be "clearly the strongest." His inherent weakness in the GOP primary is exactly the fact that he is more popular with Dems than with the GOP base. You hit it right on the head.



Fair enough

Nick In South Bend

37. Don't get me wrong Rombot, I enjoy your contributions to the forum. Even though we do not always agree, I like ya!


Marist (for those who hate PPP) does make the stronger point about The Big Man

Poll Watch: Marist 2016 National Presidential Survey

Hillary Clinton (D) 46%

Chris Christie (R) 43%

Hillary Clinton (D) 52%

Rand Paul (R) 41%

Hillary Clinton (D) 52%

Marco Rubio (R) 40%

Hillary Clinton (D) 54%

Jeb Bush (R) 38%

Btw, lotsa 50s there :(



And vice versa, Nick!

FWIW, I do think Christie will use the "most electable in the general" meme just as Dole, McCain, and Romney did

And look where that got us: Clintobama mania

Nick In South Bend

Yea, that is Christie's big selling point. "Most electable." I would vote for him if he is the candidate of the GOP. But I doubt I would vote for him in the primary. He is an important part of the discussion though, he would add a lot to debates. His perspective would be good to have. And the GOP could certainly do much worse in finding a standard bearer. I simply question how fired up the base would about voting for him, and I do not think he would peel any Dems away from Hillary.


Christie shouldn't even be getting polled for. You have absolutely no chance running on a national stage as an anti-gun republican. That alone is enough to keep him from being a contender, and if he tries to run you know his opponents will nail him on it repeatedly.

On the bright side though, it's good to see Paul doing well. It's just a matter of time before bland, unappealing Rubio, who does as he's told, starts to wear thin, drops in popularity, and is surpassed by Paul.


#33 Rombot

Do we have any good numbers on those swing states?

Not to doubt you, I just quite following things closely after America voted to perpetuate the bankrupt nanny state...




Here is the exact quote:

“If ALL of the evangelicals had showed up, it MAY have made a difference.” ~Huck

Perhaps the Huckster was looking at these* and other CRUCIAL swing states

Highlights of the exit polls on evangelical voters, compared to 2008:

*Florida: Nearly identical to 2008.[Edit: Not too sure, the Holy Rollers did ALL THEY COULD HAVE for the divorced and mushy moderate McCain, either]

*Ohio: Slightly larger percentage of the electorate, and (against the trend in other states where evangelicals were surveyed) MORE supportive of Obama. [Edit: Ouch! We needed them here most of all]

*Colorado: No significant changes from 2008, though the evangelical makeup of the electorate was slightly up, and slightly LESS supportive of the Republican candidate.

*Nevada: A higher percentage of evangelical voters in 2012, with considerably LESS support for Romney than McCain.



#43 Rombot




You're welcome :)


And did you notice how brutal those comment over there at Christianity Today were?

It's a war zone

We are so doomed :(


This poll is basically as I expected.


Where is Huckabee? He should be on here.

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