April 8, 2012

Romney Going for the Win with Pennsylvania Ad Buy

ABC News’ Michael Falcone has the scoop on the Team Romney’s Pennsylvania offensive to knock Santorum out of the race:

In an attempt to eject Rick Santorum from the presidential race by force, Mitt Romney’s campaign will unveil a nearly $2 million television ad buy on the Pennsylvania airwaves beginning on Monday.

According to sources tracking TV ad spending the buy, totaling $1.9 million, is widespread, hitting media markets from Philadelphia to Erie between April 9 and April 22 — two days before the state’s April 24 primary.

(The Pittsburgh Tribune-Review’s Salena Zito reported that the buy could grow even larger — eventually ballooning to nearly $3 million.)

Rick Santorum has already made clear that “we have to win” Pennsylvania and Romney predicted this week that Santorum, who served the state in the House and Senate, is “obviously going to do well in Pennsylvania.” A loss in the Keystone State would be exactly the knock-out blow the Romney campaign is seeking to finally shut the door on the GOP primary.

But officials with the Santorum campaign say they do not plan to let the Romney ad buy go unanswered.

“We’ll make an ad buy, no question about that,” Santorum’s national communications director Hogan Gidley told ABC News on Saturday, noting that although the campaign has yet to purchase any airtime, he fully expects they will do so “soon.”

Be sure to read the full story here, which includes more details on the planned response from the Santorum campaign.

by @ 11:53 am. Filed under Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum
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137 Responses to “Romney Going for the Win with Pennsylvania Ad Buy”

  1. nate w Says:

    what a waste. It’s like buying ads against Perry. Just let him open his mouth, that’s all you need.

  2. aspire Says:

    Santorum’s campaign has not bought any ad time yet? They don’t even have a number in mind? I’m guessing it depends on how much they can raise (or borrow). Hopefully he doesn’t spend too much on Pennsylvania, I’m sure Romney will wind up paying off his debts.

  3. Nostradamus Says:

    We come not to praise Santorum; but to bury him!

  4. Keith Price Says:

    Still upsets me. Every dollar spent putting Santorum down is a dollar unavailable for the general. I just don’t get what Rick is trying to accomplish other than scorched earth.

  5. Keith Price Says:

    4. I meant to say, “putting Santorum down like a lame horse”

  6. Keith Price Says:

    Happy Easter to my extended family on RACE. You too, Matt MWS!

  7. Nevada Conservative Says:

    I agree that it’s upsetting, Keith. It’s Rick’s fault–he still thinks he would somehow win a floor fight. Romney should put him away for good here and focus on the general.

  8. Aaron in WA Says:

    I don’t mind an ad buy as long as it’s not anti-Santorum, but rather pro-Romney. Romney’s not running against Santorum anymore, he’s running against 1,144. And any advertising now in PA needs to be about increasing Romney’s favorability in the key swing state. So, run the ads like you’re in the general election and I don’t mind the spending.

  9. justnathaniel Says:

    Of course, the other reason to go hard in PA is to lay the groundwork for November. Mitt should run ads in the introduce-self/attack-Obama mold, as befits a presumptive nominee, and ignore Santorum.

  10. justnathaniel Says:

    Great minds, Aaron in WA, great minds…

  11. Nevada Conservative Says:

    8,9

    Good call, both of you. Start running general election ads. Now’s the time.

  12. @ParisParamus Says:

    I disagree that these ad buys are a waste. Shock and Awe is going to be a necessary part of beating Obama. Also, GOP ads are also seen by non-GOP voters.

  13. Vladimir Says:

    On the one hand, I understand the need/desire to deliver an embarrassing KO to Santorum in his home state. And maybe campaigning now establishes a footprint for the Fall. On the other hand, if Romney embarrasses Santoru he creates an enemy. There will be some that will call it gratuitous and petty because it is unnecessary. Hard to second guess a professional campaign, but a nicer mover would be to say, “let him grab a nice win in his home state and maybe give him a chance to exit on a high note.”

  14. Florida Conservative Says:

    Keep in mind that the $3 Million expected by is by the Romney Campaign, his Superpac ROF will also be throwing in another 2 or 3 Million to make it an even bigger ad buy throughout the state, keep in mind a win would mean the absolute end of this race, so its a win,win situation for Mitt.

  15. Katechon Says:

    Romney should fly to Afghanistan, board a chopper, and kill a few Taliban c**** with a machine gun, live on CNN

    Landslide against Obama becometh

  16. Nostradamus Says:

    14.

    You of all people ought to know when it is time to drive the stake in.

    That time is now to avoid fights and expense in May and June.

    Give em severe “psychological warfare” hell Mitt!

  17. Nostradamus Says:

    I meant 13. Vladimir.

  18. Katechon Says:

    Meanwhile, he’s body surfing radioactive waves in California!

    8)

  19. Vladimir Says:

    LOL 16/17. Uncle Vladimir is more interested in building mansions by the Black Sea.

    14 – The SuperPac said it is now saving its funds for the general.

  20. aspire Says:

    13 That would be great, but Santourm’s been saying winning Pennsylvania is going to be the foundation for his comeback. So we must presume letting him win would keep him in the race.

  21. Florida Conservative Says:

    Well once Santorum makes his Ad buy purchase, this is the Ad they will be running against Mitt Romney.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I7Y3nUvRQ7s&feature=player_embedded

    This is probably the worst and most dishonest Anti-Romney Ad this entire primary, so Romney needs to put the gloves on and attack Santorum against this dispicable advertising, this Ad cannot and will not go without retaliation, Rick Santorum and his campaign are pathetic

  22. Massachusetts Conservative Says:

    Vlad,

    Perhaps you’re a brainstormer, but most of your brainstormed pieces of advice are ludicrous. Letting Santorum win PA? Are you kidding? He’s not looking for Romney to be nice to him, he’s looking for a chance to stay in the race and continue to cause problems.

  23. Florida Conservative Says:

    If I were the Romney Team I would run this Ad non stop throughout the entire state to remind the people of the state just how bad this man lost!

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=EFG6dlsav1E#t=2s

  24. Nostradamus Says:

    23.

    Has Molly moved into her new digs in PA?

  25. Vladimir Says:

    My basic point is that the race is over. Even Obama has dropped the pretense that Santorum has a shot and most of the media has declared it over. By engaging Santorum in PA it sends the message that maybe it isn’t over. This isn’t football where until time runs out there is a possibility of an “immaculate reception.”

  26. Florida Conservative Says:

    She’ll be there in a few days, Team Mitt will have “all hands on deck” in PA, publicly they are saying of course Santorum should win his home state, but trust me, privately they think they can crush him by 10 points or more because the state is shaped very nicely demographically for them, and they know if they put forth a big effort they can beat him easily in the state, and I think they will

  27. Massachusetts Conservative Says:

    26

    So you know Molly? Do you ever discuss strategy with her, or tell her some of the stuff we say here, or anything?

  28. Jonathan Says:

    Happy Easter all.

    Good move by the Romney campaign. They need to be relentless now; don’t let up, don’t let Santorum off the mat, don’t let complacency set in. We all remember what happened during the Colorado Caucus; complacency lost that state. Keep hitting the Keystone State as much as possible. Winning Pennsylvania will completely, totally wrap up the nomination so that should be all the Romney campaign eats, sleeps and thinks between now and April 24th.

  29. Massachusetts Conservative Says:

    It’s hard to see a way for Romney to lose in November if he wins Pennsylvania. That one is crucial to Democrats. Obama would have to win BOTH Virginia AND Ohio, alongside Colorado and Nevada to win the election in that case.

  30. Nostradamus Says:

    27.

    Molly is all seeing and all knowing.

    She appears when and where it is necessary.

  31. My Man Mitt 4 President Says:

    If Santorum would read the writing on the wall there would be no need for a big ad buy. Happy Easter.

  32. aspire Says:

    25 That assumes Santorum isn’t damaging Romney, and the republican brand. I believe he is doing both. Romney beating him in his own state might end the primary for good and make it so Romney doesn’t have to spend any more money in any states that aren’t critical for the GE. If Santorum loses Penn, there’s no future win that can undo that loss.

  33. Keith Price Says:

    Did you all see Newt’s latest comment? Something along the lines of:

    “Mitt Romney and I are at peace. I hit him with everything I had and he hit me with everything he had. It turns out he had more to hit me with than I had. That’s the business.”

    So, Newt is staying in the race but has acknowledged Mitt as the nominee and it appears Newt will stop attacking Mitt and focus on issues and Obama.

    That’s what Rick should be doing instead of posting even more damaging and dishonest attacks on Mitt.

  34. My Man Mitt 4 President Says:

    33. Here is the link to that comment http://www.politico.com/blogs/politico-live/2012/04/gingrich-romney-and-i-are-at-peace-119902.html

    I totally agree with you!

  35. Dave Says:

    The best thing Mitt has going for him is that Pennsylvania is a closed Primary. Santorum made a systematic effort to encourage Dems to cross in states like Michigan, Ohio, Illinois, and Wisconsin…..and in each case, Mitt would have won by more if they were closed.

    BTW, There should be no Marquis of Queensbury rules applied by the Mitt camp. Santorum discarded all the normal rules of decency long ago….so Team Romney needs to obliterate Rick for once and for all. And he can do it without being dishonest.

    From now on, it’s destruction derby.

  36. Smack1968 Says:

    I’m starting to feel it…….

    …it’s taking over my whole SMACKDADDY body……

    ….the tingling has started in my toes..and now the tingling has spread to my by beer gut.

    ..it’s happening…

    ….it’s happening…….

    …the TPAW SURGE for the Vice Presidency is happening……

    ..more to come…

  37. Massachusetts Conservative Says:

    36

    Lol.

    But seriously, the VP won’t even be selected until August most likely. No way to know the answer to that now. But isn’t there some sort of law or rule precluding TPaw from being VP because he worked as co-chair or something?

  38. Massachusetts Conservative Says:

    “I’ve taken myself off the list,” former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty said recently.

    http://www.postbulletin.com/news/stories/display.php?id=1492081

  39. Smack1968 Says:

    MASS CON,

    TPAW took himself off the list…Mitt put him back on.

    Mitt is looking for the following things in his VP…

    1. Governor or Ex-Governor.

    2. Governor who does not need to be brought up to snuff on national issues….Mitt does not want his VP to have a learning curve.

    3. A candidate who has at least met, and gone through a mimimum vetting process.

    4. A candidate who will not hurt his candidacy.

    5…and most important to Mitt…a candidate who Mitt feels good with….having a good relelationship with…trust.

    TPAW is Mitt’s first choice……..you can feel it. There is a reason why TPAW’s name is now being used as a potential pick in all of these articles…it’s because TPAW’s name is on the list and will not be removed my Mitt himself.

    It’s gonna happen….

    Romney/Palwenty 2012!!!!

    SMACKDADDY is filling the fridge with the bubbly….

    IT’S HAPPENING!!!!

  40. K.G. Says:

    Mitt and the RNC need to StopRickNow. He’s doing nothing but damage. If Mitt beats the hell out of him in PA, so be it. He’s bringing it on himself. Oh, he’ll whine all day and all night, but he only himself to blame.

    In the meantime he hurts the GOP brand, hurts Mitt and hurts our chances.

  41. Massachusetts Conservative Says:

    39

    I don’t think there is really a list right now. Maybe there is one long list with a bunch of names to talk about. But the short list won’t be formed until July or something. Anyway, TPaw would be a safe pick, but I doubt it would be what Mitt needs.

  42. Smack1968 Says:

    MASS CON,

    TPAW may or may not be what Mitt needs…..but TPAW is what Mitt wants.

    For whatever reason Mitt and TPAW are very tight…and I think that alone means everything to Mitt. Mitt also wants a Governor as a VP and there is no one out there that fits the description of what Mitt wants than TPAW.

    Christie & Martinez are close…but they are in their first terms…have not had to talk about national issues before. Jindal is probably high on the list as well…….but it always gets back to how Mitt feels about the person personally. Mitt wants to be at 100% peace with the VP when it comes to working and personal relationship……..that is how Mitt floats. GWB picked Cheney for the same reason.

    Romeny/Pawlenty 2012!!

    IT’S HAPPENING!!!

    SMACKDADDY is here at Race42012 to make sure you all don’t miss history happening right before your eyes.

  43. Katechon Says:

    42— LLLLLLLLLLLOOOOOOOOLLLLLLLLL

    LOLOLOL

    lol

    !

  44. Common Cents Says:

    It does piss me off that Romney is having to waste $2 million to put Santorum out of his misery, but I’m guessing most of it will be pro-Romney ads to help in the General Election.

    I’d also wager this big ad buy is mainly just to spook Santorum out of the race.

    It’s not an exaggeration to say Santorum losing in PA will destroy his credibility for the rest of his life. Losing your own state twice in a row means he’s a dead man walking for good.

  45. Katechon Says:

    42- I is now very tempted to have a look at Pawlenty’s odds — to short the living glory out of him…

  46. Katechon Says:

    Mitt body surfing on radioactive waves :

    http://twitter.com/DS_CT/status/189043656571891713

  47. Massachusetts Conservative Says:

    42

    Mitt and Paul Ryan get along nicely as well. Maybe TPaw will play the blue collar thing in the GE if Mitt picks him. But I just do not think it’s going to be TPaw. He’s conservative enough and all, but I think he’s too safe. Maybe he’s the default pick in case Rubio, Jindal, and Ryan don’t turn out to be good picks for whatever reason. I donno. But TPaw has been clear, he doesn’t want to VP, he has taken himself off the list, and he would not accept the job if offered. He’s been more emphatic than even Rubio about that.

  48. Smack1968 Says:

    Katechon,

    Think about it.

    Everything we have heard coming out of Mitt’s camp for the VP is that Mitt wants a VP candidate that has been a Governor and who needs no learning curve on the national issues.

    That criteria alone leaves only a couple of chioces.

    J. Bush
    Christie
    Palwenty

    ………we know it won’t be Bush…..Christie is a possibilty…but two Northeatern Governors at the top?

    A TPAW VP pick would not match some other criterias…not a bit……but TPAW matches the wants of what Mitt needs.

    I can’t wait unti it happens…..Dick Morris head is going to explode.

    SMACKDADDY will party for 10 straight days.

    I’m going to make this place go nuts……..it’s going to be epic.

    Romney/Pawlenty 2012!!!

    Simply because……it is meant to be.

  49. Massachusetts Conservative Says:

    I don’t think TPaw is a good enough attack dog for VP either. He’s a nice guy, but he never could do the attack thing. I think he’d get chewed up by Biden in a debate, somehow. He’s just not really that convincing.

  50. aspire Says:

    46 Notice how he keeps a top on (Santorum).

  51. Massachusetts Conservative Says:

    I don’t think they said they need a governor. They said they need someone who could be president on day 1.

  52. Massachusetts Conservative Says:

    I think it’s basically Jindal, Ryan, or bust. TPaw as a safe pick if the other fail the vetting process or decline.

  53. Smack1968 Says:

    MASS CON,

    Rubio,Ryan & Jindal are all good picks. They all bring a higher upside….but only Jindal matches what Romney is looking for in his VP selection out of the 3 you just mentoned.

    I have been high on Rubio…..just like everyone else….but Mitt wants a Governor…a person who has balanced budgets and who has ran something.

    That leaves us a small list of candidates….Jindal is one…..Chrisite another……..Pawlenty is another.

    But Jindal has no personal releationship with Mitt. Ryan does…..they look good together…but Ryan has not been a Governor.

    Christie & Pawlenty do have a relationship with Mitt….but Pawlenty’s is deeper.

    TPAW did take himself off the list….but Mitt did not take him off the list.

    John Fund said yesterday that TPAW is very much on the minds of the Mitt camp.

    IT’S HAPPENING!!!

    Romney/Pawlenty 2012!!

  54. Massachusetts Conservative Says:

    53

    I don’t think Mitt or his people said they needed a governor. I think they just said they need someone who could unquestionably be president on day 1.

  55. Smack1968 Says:

    Marco Rubio: “I’m not going to be the vice president.”

    Nikki Haley: “If offered any position by Gov. Romney, I would say no.”

    Tim Pawlenty: “I’ve taken myself off the list.”

    Susana Martinez: “It’s humbling, but I’m not interested.”

    Rob Portman: “I’m really not interested… I know that sounds strange.”

    ———————————————-

    IT’S HAPPENING!!!!!

    Romney/Pawlenty 2012!!

  56. Smack1968 Says:

    MASS CON,

    I have read a couple of articles indicating Mitt was looking for a Governor.

    I will look for those articles and see if I can find anything…I could be wrong……but I don’t think so.

  57. Massachusetts Conservative Says:

    55

    I don’t think it will be one of them anyway. It’s probably Ryan or Jindal. If it’s not one of them, somehow, then it could be TPaw or Portman. I doubt it’s Rubio, Martinez, Haley.

    No chance it’s Palin, West, Perry, Bach, Noot, Rick, Huntsman, or Cain, or anyone like them.

    Not gonna be Petraeus, Bolton, Liz Cheney, McMorris Rodgers, or anyone like that either.

    Here are the people with more than 5% chance:

    Ryan
    Jindal
    Rubio
    Christie
    Portman
    TPaw
    Toomey
    Walker
    McDonnell
    Martinez

  58. Vladimir Says:

    TPaw would certainly be considered credible out of the box and he doesn’t do any harm, which are two of the top considerations for a vp. But was his lack of pull in the MN contest a sign of weakness?

  59. Massachusetts Conservative Says:

    58

    Nah, caucuses are a joke. The turnout was 1.7%.

  60. Smack1968 Says:

    MASS CON,

    More than 5%….

    TPAW
    Ryan
    Jindal
    Portman
    ——–

    I just got this hunch that mitt will not tap someone during thier first term in office.

    That cancels out –

    Martinez
    Christie
    Mcdonnell
    Walker
    Toomey

    Portman would be my exception to the rule because of all his experience with GWB.

    I do think the list is short……

    TPAW or Ryan…..unless there is a relationship between Jindal and Mitt we do not know about…..

    i think it’sa between Ryan and TPAW…with TPAW having a Governor’s edge in the mind of Mitt.

  61. Massachusetts Conservative Says:

    60

    I give it at least 70% odds that the VP is one of those 4 people.

  62. Ozzy(Mitt Romney-Paul Ryan 2012) Says:

    Smack is almost as obsessed with Pawlenty as Jack is with Palin. Smack, Jack, must be something with names that rhyme.

  63. Katechon Says:

    60-61 — interesting………………………

    Happy Easter, Smackdaddy!

  64. Massachusetts Conservative Says:

    TPaw and Portman would immediately pass the vetting test. Both are squeaky clean.

    Ryan and Jindal are somewhat less-vetted quantities, but they both have what Mitt needs – an ability to run on a big ideas campaign with bold solutions.

  65. Katechon Says:

    Still not ready to rule out Rubio. Not yet…

  66. alaska jake Says:

    Making Ryan the VP would be a total waste of his talents. He should be SecTreasury or Commerce. Personally, I would much rather he stay in Congress and lead the efforts there to slash spending and the deficit/debt as a partner with Romney – Mitt’s gonna need someone strong in Congress to help push his agenda and Ryan is the best. Pawlenty is a fine choice, I guess, does no harm and all that, plus he’s a midwestern gov, and no worries about replacing him or losing a sitting member of congress or gov. But I’m still pushing for Fortuno as my #1 choice. If not him then Martinez.

  67. Massachusetts Conservative Says:

    65

    It’s not going to be Rubio.

  68. Matthew E. Miller Says:

    Tpaw would be an exceedingly strange pick. And Mass Con, I think Ron Johnson makes a lot more sense than Walker. Don’t think there’s any chance of Walker at all. My guess is, the people of Wisconsin are going to be damn sick of voting for/against Walker. And I don’t blame them. It would be really, really odd for him to spend the summer begging Wisconsinites to let him finish his term, only to bolt for the national ticket 2 months later.

    I still think:

    Ryan
    Portman
    Christie
    McDonnell
    Jindal

    Toomey and Johnson will make their way to the long-list, as will McMorris-Rodgers and Martinez, to placate the war on women crowd. Rubio really seems out. I’d be surprised if, sometime this Spring, he doesn’t announce that the Romney camp asked him to be vetted but he declined (which may prepare the way for the grassroots disappointment and get Mitt off the hook). That leaves my list. I’d say there’s a 90% chance its someone on that list (and about 7% of the remainder goes to “maybe Rubio’s just playing extremely coy” scenario).

  69. Massachusetts Conservative Says:

    68

    Yeah, good point about Walker.

  70. My Man Mitt 4 President Says:

    I really gotten used to the idea of Romney/Rubio. Tell me does it matter that neither of Rubio’s parents were not citizens until 1975 and Marco was born in 1971? Just asking if that is a problem being the VP.

  71. My Man Mitt 4 President Says:

    70. delete not

  72. My Man Mitt 4 President Says:

    Same with Bobby Jindal neither parent was a citizen but he was born in the USA? Could an child of an illegal immigrant be President? Just asking. Neither Jindal’s or Rubio’s parent were illegal but just curious how it all works. Obviously if one parent is a citizen you can be president (Obama).

  73. Vladimir Says:

    Romney will want a VP who will not only be roundly accepted as credible, but nearly universally acceptaed if not applauded by activists because the last thing he wants his a messy convention. There are elements in the party – like Palin – who will want to attack the choice. There is also the question of religion. I think the vp must be an evangelical, not just a person of faith. I say this after watching Rick Warren on ABC tonight. Clearly, the media is going to explore Romney’s beliefs as they did in the Warren interview.

    If I just use the lists here that means Jindal or McDonnell.

  74. Vladimir Says:

    72 – No offense, but read the Constitution. The requirement is that the person him or herself be a citizen, not their parents. And a person born here is a citizen, even of illegals.

  75. Massachusetts Conservative Says:

    73

    Jindal is a Catholic, not a traditional Evangelical protestant. I don’t think an Evangelical is necessary, just someone who’s unquestionably conservative on all issues, especially life.

    McDonnell has problems with the “War on Women.”

  76. Matthew E. Miller Says:

    Not saying that’s the best list, necessarily. Daniels makes more sense to me than Portman does. As experienced as Portman in Washington, as familiar with national issues, but with a couple terms as Governor and exhaustive raft of accomplishments. Also- like Portman- he’s from a state Obama carried, in a critical region of a country. I can’t really understand the case for Portman when Daniels is around. Also, Daniels at least has fawning admirers in the press, and would generate SOME interest. Portman would just be enormous dud. In fact, the lack of Daniels talk has me half-convinced that someone is trying to keep him hidden as a dark, dark horse. But that might give Team Romney too much credit. In all likelihood, they’ve barely looked his way.

  77. My Man Mitt 4 President Says:

    73. What faith is Pawlenty? or Christie?

  78. Massachusetts Conservative Says:

    74

    They have to be born here AND a citizen. Jindal and Rubio both meet that criterion.

  79. Massachusetts Conservative Says:

    76

    No, Daniels called for a “truce” on social issues. Portman did nothing of the sort. But neither pick makes any sense, I think we agree.

  80. My Man Mitt 4 President Says:

    74. Thanks for your curt answer. No offense.

  81. Matthew E. Miller Says:

    McDonnell is a Catholic too. In fact, I’d guess that Portman’s getting a serious look precisely because he’s practically the only conceivable VP who’s a Protestant (except for Daniels who, again, ought to be in the mix but doesn’t appear to be).

  82. Matthew E. Miller Says:

    Mass Con,

    Yes, well, and a few months after that he signed a bill banning abortions past 20 weeks, and also ended funding for Planned Parenthood. So the “truce” was obviously nuanced. I’m inclined to think pro-lifers will forgive him. I actually think Daniels DOES make some sense. More sense than Portman and probably more sense than McDonnell. I go back and forth on Christie. But I think, like Ryan and Jindal, Daniels would obviously reinforce Romney’s brand while giving him the chance to extend it in other directions. Like Ryan and Jindal, he would generate a certain amount of interest in the chattering class. He’s below both of them- in value- because he’s not as obviously well-liked by the grassroots and because he’s an old, semi-stodgy (though less stodgy than Portman), white guy.

  83. Vladimir Says:

    We have seen that evangelicals will embrace catholics. It is all about whether they “speak the language.”

    Yeah, McDonnell has that ultrasound problem and he was mighty testy on MTP when asked about it. But he still makes a lot of sense as a veteran, former state AG, and southerner.

  84. econ grad stud Says:

    I think Romney should choose Olympia Snowe as VP now that she’s not busy being Senator.

    It sends a message to working women that Romney is still a New England moderate but has had to pretend otherwise for the primary. If he has any chance of winning its running down the middle as Romney’s not going to appeal to moderate working class whites or union guys like Bush did.

    If Romney wins it’ll be with single/professional women and the wine drinking class. It’s a long shot but that’s Romney’s best chance given his stiff personality and inability to appeal to working class voters.

  85. Massachusetts Conservative Says:

    That shot by Bubba Watson was absolutely phenomenal. Wow. Holy mother of pearl! Go Bubba!

  86. Katechon Says:

    What a shot!

  87. Matthew E. Miller Says:

    If Ryan, Jindal, and Rubio all declined, and you put a gun to my head, I’d grimace a little bit and probably say “OK…go with Daniels”. Right now. I could feel differently tomorrow or the next week. But at the moment, Daniels seems like the best candidate for the much coveted position of “distant 4th” on Matthew E. Miller’s depth chart.

  88. Massachusetts Conservative Says:

    Bubba wins! Hell yes!

  89. Vladimir Says:

    Olympia Snowe, if she were from somewhere else, would work. But Maine and MA or even MA & NJ on a GOP tix? That would breed a lot of mistrust and maybe even resentment down South.

  90. Massachusetts Conservative Says:

    87

    I think TPaw is better than Daniels. TPaw isn’t tied to Bush, he never called for a “truce” on social issues, he’s blue collar, he’s likeable, he’s tougher than Daniels (about the only person who he’s tougher than). Daniels has more cred on union-busting and education, while TPaw has more of a personal appeal and probably appeals more to women.

  91. Smack1968 Says:

    MEM,

    I think what you are missing in your analysis is that Mitt is only going to pick someone he is close to personally.

    That is it in a nutshell.

    Who is Mitt close to personally?

    We know Mitt and Ann are very close to Tim and Mary.

    We may be seeing a relationship being sprouted among Ryan & Romney….maybe.

    Mitt is going to pick his VP based on a simple test.

    1. No harm
    2. No drama
    3. Trust.
    4. Does Mitt like this guy/gal.

    TPAW will be the pick…I think it’s becoming more clear as times goes on.

    I think there is a very good reason why Team Mitt was so agressive in deleting TPAW’s campaign debt for him so quickly….because Mitt wants Tim…..Ann wants Mary.

    Simple.

  92. Matthew E. Miller Says:

    Mass Con,

    I’d disagree with almost all of that. And Tpaw is still my 4th favorite politician in the party (after Jindal, Ryan, and Rubio). Pawlenty is plenty likable but he does not seem to do well on the national stage. The guy was a wet blanket during his Presidential run. There’s a reason why, even before he exited, I was writing “hey, Paul Ryan should get in” posts. Because his many fine and admirable just didn’t translate. Maybe it was nervousness. Maybe it was feeling like he had to play a role. But being the VP on the national ticket is plenty nerve-wracking and since you’re representing someone else you’re inherently playing a role. Daniels, on the other hand, who I resisted all last year, who I practically mocked, has a light wit and an easy laugh. That speech he gave at AEI- on education- really impressed me. Droning at points but also filled with tongue-in-cheek humor and real vision. He doesn’t have a big personality but he does have a personality.

    As far as women go; well, the guy who wanted to declare a “truce” on social issues isn’t, at the least, going to hurt the ticket with women. I don’t think either man is all the likely to help the ticket with women, in part, because I don’t think it’s really possible to “help” the ticket with a group that makes up 54% of the electorate. They’ll either help or hurt the ticket, in general, and women will go along for the ride just as men will.

  93. sbbarnes Says:

    Condi for VP.

  94. Vladimir Says:

    I wish old campaigns contributed their campaign materials, including non-personal vetting materials, to an archive. McCain’s would probably still be private assuming a time period for maintaining confidentiality, but it would be interesting to know where Pawlenty fit in 2008. The movie Game Change makes it appear he was at the top of the list.

  95. Matthew E. Miller Says:

    Smack,

    I don’t pretend to know how important the “personal closeness” factor is for Governor Romney. But it’s worth noting that we do have one instance of Mitt Romney selecting a running-mate: and he went with Kerry Healey. He went so far as to endorse her, while another more prominent Republican was seeking the office. Mitt Romney couldn’t possibly have been overly familiar with Healey. She wasn’t involved in state politics during Romney’s Senate bid and, in fact, had almost no political resume worth speaking of in ’02 (a failed run followed by a stint as a chairperson of the state party). What did she have going for her? Well, she was a woman and Romney had just brushed aside the incumbent, female Republican governor (she cried when she announced she wouldn’t be seeking re-election) and his likely Democratic opponent was a woman. It was pure strategic common sense. So I’d say that Romney’s not above selecting a running-mate for calculating reasons.

  96. Massachusetts Conservative Says:

    92

    As much of a dud as TPaw was, Daniels would be too. That’s why I wouldn’t pick either of them.

    As for Daniels and women, he would have the classic problem that goes something like this: You said one thing, you did another. Half the country is mad at you because you said one thing, and the other half of the country is mad because you did the other thing.

    He called for a truce on social issues (which pissed off the base) and defunded Planned Parenthood (which pisses off women). The base doesn’t give him credit for defunding PP, and women don’t give him credit for calling for a truce on social issues.

  97. Katechon Says:

    92- I really enjoy listening to Daniels

    Much more interesting than Romney

    He really is his own man. Extremely witty. And brilliant. Genuine. And often extremely funny.

    He knows how to work a crowd too

  98. Katechon Says:

    Daniels comes across as very sincere

    Unlike Romney

  99. Katechon Says:

    96- Daniels is a very conservative fellow. And his record in Indiana is very conservative, both fiscally and socially

  100. Matthew E. Miller Says:

    Katechon,

    Yup. I would have said that Daniels, Pawlenty, and Ryan were the most sincere-seeming people in politics. But Pawlenty kind of got befuddled during the Presidential campaign. I sort of doubt the Pawlenty who won two elections in Minnesota would show up in Tampa, if Romney selected him. Instead, we’d probably get the cringe-inducing “let’s take a tire-iron to Big Government” Pawlenty of last year. Daniels and Ryan have the advantage of not having been mucked up by the consultants yet.

  101. Vladimir Says:

    Not to be rude, but isn’t Daniel’s problem, uh, personal? I think that will keep him from being VP. Having the world cuckhold on your resume is a deal breaker.

  102. Ozzy(Mitt Romney-Paul Ryan 2012) Says:

    Guys, you are all wrong. Romney has already mentioned on The Tonight Show with Jay Leno that David Letterman will be his VP. :)

  103. Ozzy(Mitt Romney-Paul Ryan 2012) Says:

    Seriously though, here’s an article claiming why a governor won’t be or shouldn’t be the VP.

    http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/03/27/for-a-romney-running-mate-dont-bet-on-a-governor/

  104. Vladimir Says:

    103 – I love it when “professionals” reinforce my own thinking.

  105. Matthew E. Miller Says:

    I’ve been saying the same thing for a long while, but for different reasons. I think Governors generally make poor VP’s because Governor’s generally have a steeper learning curve than Senator’s and a VP doesn’t get a whole lot time to prove him/her self. But this is only generally true. Some Governors- like Jindal and Daniels- clearly have command of a wide variety of national issues and, indeed, have spent a significant amount of time in Washington. The points Silver makes- like Governors being more prone to scandal- seem odd or poorly considered to me. I’d imagine that Senators are much less likely to face competitive elections for at least two reasons. 1. Governor’s are, in at least half of their races, non-incumbents whereas the average Senator serves multiple terms. 2. States of a bright red or bright blue hue seem willing to consider the opposing party for statewide office but not for national office (Mass is a great example of this). So if Governor’s are more likely to have credible races, what will we find? Well, we’ll find more “discovered” scandals. Scandals don’t appear out of thin air. They’re discovered by someone; invariably someone with the means and the motive. A candidate trailing an incumbent Senator by 20 points only has one of those. Ditto the other opposing partisans. A Governor not only has a credible opponent trying to bring him down but he has a whole state party determined to dethrone him. Lot easier to find or invent scandals in those circumstances.

  106. Patrick Henry Says:

    Maybe Newt’s angling for it? http://www.politico.com/blogs/politico-live/2012/04/gingrich-romney-and-i-are-at-peace-119902.html

    Someone in the comments mentioned Gingrich for press secretary… I kind of like this idea. It would be entertainment every time there was a press conference.

  107. Smack1968 Says:

    MEM,

    Huuuuuummmmmm…….

    Again, I’m trying to look at this through the eyes of Mitt.

    Which is a dangerous thing to do, and should only be done by a professional like myself…ahem…..ahem……

    A pick of TPAW keeps the “Romney = outsider” image fresh and pristine. Mitt has grown quite fond of his lines in his stump speeches that chartaterize his opponents as “creatures of Washington”………..I believe Mitt wants to keep with this line of attack and will compare himself and TPAW as outsiders to Biden and Obama as insiders.

    I also believe Mitt is looking at the fact that when Kerry picked Edwards, well……Kerry really didn’t know Edwards. McCain really didn’t know Palin….GHB really didn’t know Qualye.

    Mitt is going to pick someone that he believes he truly knows as a person……and as a political person.

    TPAW seems to be the candidate that fits into how I believe Mitt is going to think this process through. I could be wrong….but I think Mitt wants TPAW.

    Rubio,Ryan,Jindal & Portman make political sense……….but TPAW is to Mitt, as Cheney was to GWB. A known person who as #2 makes #1 feel comfortable.

    SMACKDADDY predicts it will be Romney/Pawlenty.

    I think we are going to start hearing this as a possibilty in the upcoming days.

  108. Nostradamus Says:

    107.

    TPaw warrants consideration and would be a decent choice without a Washington record of votes to attack. However I think still Portman brings more to the table.

  109. John Says:

    Hey, #15 you must tell Obama to go there before his term end so Mitt will go there after 3 years in office around 2015 or 2016,that is the right time for Mitt but now is Obama era,he must go for his duty.

  110. Matthew E. Miller Says:

    Honestly, I don’t think Pawlenty even makes the long list. Not because Romney’s unwilling to consider him but because Pawlenty does not want to be publicly considered and passed over again. It’s not a fun situation. And Pawlenty, relative to the other choices, made a LOT more sense in ’08 than he makes in ’12. So why does Pawlenty even submit to the vetting, knowing it’ll leak, when he’s- at best- towards the bottom of the short-list? Granted he’s not doing much but A.) There’s such a thing as pride and B.) Being continually passed over is bound to harm his future political aspirations. Ask Evan Bayh. Perfectly serviceable, accomplished Democrat from an important state, who did all sorts of pandering in the years leading up to ’08. But even then he was “that dull midwestern guy who everyone considers for VP but ultimately rejects”. He couldn’t generate any interest. So he declined to run and again lost out on Veep, despite making an awful lot of sense on paper. Now he’s in political Siberia. Pawlenty is young. Al Franken is not going to be especially strong in 2014. He could easily knock Franken off, gain some grassroots cred in the process (something he lacked in ’12) and make a run in ’16 or, more likely, ’20. Why submit to another humiliating rejection, which will only cement your reputation as the guy who always gets left sitting at the ball?

  111. Thomas Alan Says:

    60:

    I just got this hunch that mitt will not tap someone during thier first term in office.

    That cancels out –

    Martinez
    Christie
    Mcdonnell
    Walker
    Toomey

    Toomey may be a freshman in the Senate, but he’s already served 3 terms in the House and ran the Club for Growth. He’s not a newcomer.

  112. Dr J Says:

    107- I hope you are right. Of all the former candidates, I thought he was the best. And the only one to get behind Mitt.

  113. Smack1968 Says:

    MEM,

    Good valid points..especially the point you made “Why submit to another humiliating rejection”.

    That is why I believe that TPAW is on the “invisiable list”. Team Mitt takes the “TPAW 08″ paperwork from Team McCain and updates it a bit, and uses it as a part of their vetting process. Team Mitt will never go public in stating TPAW is on the list. But I believe Mitt has stated to Tim that he is being considered personally.

    Bayh is actually another good example of why TPAW will be picked by Mitt. Bayh made Obama nervous. Obama did not connect with Bayh at all..but Obama connected a little bit with Biden, who himself did not set the world a fire in his own 2008 DEM run.

    I believe Mitt will give Tim assuarances that his name will not be mentioned…but will be considered…. and at the very least will be final 3…as to convince Tim he is not wasting his own time.

    Mitt wants to send a political message in 2012 that we need a “Team of Outsiders” who have balanced budgets for 12 years in the past… to straighten out Washington. I think Mitt believes the Midwest son of a Milkman can help him get it done.

    Romney/Pawlenty 2012!!

  114. Patrick Henry Says:

    Smack – your allegiance to TPaw is starting to feel like Jack and Palin…. just saying (and not the first one to do so…)

  115. Vladimir Says:

    One of the more innance characteristics of blogs is that arguments are recurring, with the same points and counterpoints, but nothing is ever resolved. Doesn’t matter the topic. On my sports blog there is always a thread asking who is the greatest – A,B, or C. It is asked every way imaginable, but the same question.

    The question of Romney’s VP has been nearly beaten to death without even a narrowing of the list. For example, TPaw is boring, has a pardon problem, and has no real foreign policy experience. I suggest he can’t be on the list for Romney (even though McCain could have picked him). Martinez, Rubio, West and Christie are just too green. The discussion should proceed only from there.

  116. DrJeckyllAZ Says:

    29 and 44. I agree that if the ad purchases in PA are at least mostly focused on Mitt’s abilities and ideas, then it will be $ that will pay dividends in the general election–money well spent.

    I have a question for anyone who knows…I noticed that the delegate counts on Race42012 have changed. Mitt know has 659 and SantyPanties now has 275. What caused those totals to change in the last couple of days? Thanks-

  117. Vladimir Says:

    113 – Actually, Obama considered Bayh a lightweight.

  118. Patrick Henry Says:

    115. I agree… but what’s his pardon problem? I’m in Minnesota and don’t recall any issues.

  119. Smack1968 Says:

    Patrick Henry,

    My allegiance to TPAW is built upon the following.

    TPAW was a great 2 term Governor of my beloved state.

    TPAW balanced 8 years of budgets with spending cuts….never raised income taxes……never raised fees.

    TPAW received an “A” gradein his second term as Governor from CATO.

    TPAW was SEVERLY PRO LIFE as Governor.

    TPAW passed two Carry-n-Conceal laws as Governor of my blue state.

    TPAW was the only GOP candidate in the nation to win a state wide race in a blue state in the 2006 cycle.

    My allegiance will never waver…….get used to it pal.

    Romney/Pawlenty 2012

  120. Ozzy(Mitt Romney-Paul Ryan 2012) Says:

    119,

    Yet, you have some unexplained hatred for Michele Bachmann who resides from the same state.

  121. Vladimir Says:

    118 – I don’t remember details, but there was a story about a guy who had sex with an underaged girl, married her, when to jail, was pardoned so he could open a daycare, and then molested a child. Forgive me if I have some of the details wrong, but I believe I have the gist of it right. Pawlenty’s defense is that the pardon was recommended by a board and he was already out of jail when the pardon was granted.

  122. K.G. Says:

    Despite what some above have said, I heard Mitt with my own ears: He wants to go with a governor–someone with executive experience. Mitt ran off a list of names: Martinez, Sandoval, Jindal, O’Donnell, Christie, Haley. Neither Perry nor Palin nor Huckabee nor Pawlenty nor Scott were mentioned.

    It’s been some time ago; I have no idea what their thinking is now. But that’s what it was several months ago.

  123. My Man Mitt 4 President Says:

    120. Michele took out TPAW.

  124. Ozzy(Mitt Romney-Paul Ryan 2012) Says:

    121,

    What you just said sounds like an episode of Law & Order: Special Victims Unit. :)

  125. Ozzy(Mitt Romney-Paul Ryan 2012) Says:

    “Michele took out TPAW.”

    She dated him? :D

  126. K.G. Says:

    #125: Speed dated.

  127. Noelle Says:

    I like Tim Pawlenty. Back in the day, he was my 2nd choice, primarily because besides Romney, he was the only serious candidate. He ran in the right way, and for the right reasons. Dropping out and endorsing Romney added to my respect for him. However, I don’t know how I feel about him for VP. I agree that he would be a safe choice, that he would “do no harm,” but I think he wouldn’t add a lot either.

    I’m starting to have a favorite. There’s still room at the top of my list, but I’m starting to favor Bobby Jindal. His accomplishments are pretty impressive. I didn’t like the fact that he endorsed Rick Perry, but his endorsement didn’t come with any negativity towards the other candidates.

  128. Enrique Says:

    Whether I agree with it or not, it’s clear to me that Santorum is staying in the race to make sure Romney “stays conservative” through the summer and therefore ensures no flip-floppery in the fall.

  129. Enrique Says:

    Put another way, Santo staying in the race is Romney’s own fault. Sorry, it’s true.

  130. My Man Mitt 4 President Says:

    125. LOL

  131. james jones Says:

    How about a dark horse such as Mel Martinez,hispanic,vetted and exp.Only question is he to old.

  132. Thomas Alan Says:

    K.G.:

    Despite what some above have said, I heard Mitt with my own ears: He wants to go with a governor–someone with executive experience. Mitt ran off a list of names: Martinez, Sandoval, Jindal, O’Donnell, Christie, Haley.

    O’Donnell? Only if Mitt’s election strategy is to make every Democrats’ head simultaneously explode.

  133. Thomas Alan Says:

    131:

    Martinez has been vetted and found severely wanting. This despite the Bush Administration pushing him on us because of their silly, self-defeating, Hispanic strategy.

  134. K.G. Says:

    #132: LOL. Make that McConnell. I like O’Donnell. She’s a good witch but yeah….everybody’s head would explode with that one.

  135. Matthew E. Miller Says:

    Mel Martinez is also ineligible. Wasn’t born here.

  136. Mortensign Says:

    I know this has turned into a Veep fest… but what may I ask is going on with Santorum? Is it just a case of leaving the GOP scorched earth (as someone said), the decisive winner beat up, and more fodder for the incumbent OR is there something else going on? I know Ricky was tight with the unions and someone bought him a $2 mil home in VA on the down low. And he’s somehow made $$$ to pay the rent the last decade or so. If Grinch-Moonpie can come to his senses… well that’s the edge of the universe. I just have a hard time believing someone could drag their family through this political suicide… Ok, well… I retract that, Edwards, Spitzer, and a few others come to mind… I just don’t get it.

    Happy Belated Easter Everyone… Feeding Our Healthy Political Addiction

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