April 5, 2012

Poll Watch: Howey/DePauw Indiana Battleground 2012 Senatorial Survey

  7:06 pm

Howey/DePauw Indiana Battleground 2012 Senate Poll


  • Richard Lugar 42% 
  • Richard Mourdock 35%
  • Undecided 23%

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net} 

  • Richard Lugar 47% / 31% {+16%} 
  • Richard Mourdock 24% / 18% {+6%}


  • Richard Lugar (R) 50% 
  • Joe Donnelly (D) 29%
  • Joe Donnelly (D) 35% 
  • Richard Mourdock (R) 35% 

Survey of 503 likely voters, including an oversample of 503 likely GOP primary voters, was conducted March 26-28, 2012, by Republican pollster Christine Matthews, the president of Alexandria, Va.-based Bellwether Research, and Democratic pollster Fred Yang, of D.C.-based Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group. The margin of error for each sample is +/- 4.4 percentage points.

Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal



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I haven't decided how to vote in this senate race yet. Much as I would like to have someone more conservative than Lugar, I don't know much about the challenger and I definitely don't want to lose a safe Republican seat!



Vote for Lugar. Control of the Senate will decide how our next president can conduct his business. If we have Mitt win the presidency but we don't regain the Senate, he won't be able to do much.

On the other hand, if Obama wins and the Dems keep the Senate, we won't be able to stop him or shove bills onto his desk.


2. I think you are right and that's the way I've been leaning. Thanks for the advice.

Vladimir Putin

Lugar is a good man, but he is rather old and seems to have lost touch with his own community. Gonna be a battle for him.


" Gillespie, was a lobbyist for a federal individual health insurance mandate two years before President O...."




The only thing I know about Mourdock, aside from his state office, is that a lot of Conservatives hope he wins. That might settle things, but a lot of Conservatives still hope Santorum wins, and he would be a disaster.

So, I'd need to know more.


Vote for Murdouck. Lugar is 80. We don't want an open seat in what might be the 6th year of a Romney presidency (20180. 6th year's are awful for the incumbent party. At the very worst, it'll be the second year of a Jindal/Rubio/Ryan presidency. Either way, we're going to lose that seat in 2018 unless we have an incumbent. 2012 is going to be a much easier year to win an open seat in the light red Indiana.


Vote for Daniels after Mitt picks Lugar for v.p..

Mourdock looks like a sleaze and probably Daniels would jump in if Lugar runs with Mitt. Lugar, like Lieberman with Gore, could well run in both positions and the Daniels could select the Senator to fill Lugar's spot after Mitt and Lugar win.


Look at the map of where Santorem won all his contests and you'll see another reason Mitt will choose Lugar. Mitt is weakest in that mid west region for some reason or other. And he needs it. He'll get the South. But that region he seems to be missing something in.



If you think Mitt is going to put an 80-year-old Senator from a safe state on his ticket, you're out of your ever-loving mind. And if you think Mitt is "weakest" in Indiana's part of the Midwest, you don't have a clue.

He's won in Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Illinois. Those are the Midwestern states that surround Indiana....where he's polling reasonably well. No one from Indiana is going to be on the ticket either now or in 2016.



There is no reason to suspect we will lose a seat in Indiana in 2018. What's your reason for that?

Plus, if we lose it this year, we've lost it for 6 years. Lock down that seat now while it matters.



I think this is a big mistake by Romney. His opponents will seize on this as one example of him preparing to etch a sketch. Who are advising him. Did they not vet Ed correctly?


I think its just awful these senators don't retire.


Mass Con,

Indiana is light red. What seats did we lose in the 6th year of George Bush's presidency? Missouri incumbent (Talent). Ohio incumbent (Dewine). Pennsylvania incumbent (Santorum). Virginia incumbent (Allen). And we very nearly lost the Tennessee open seat: Corker won by less than 2%. The 6th year of Presidency is almost uniformly awful for the incumbent party. Every purplish open seat is lost- pretty much without exception- a few light red/blue open seats are lost, and a fair number of purple incumbents fall. Clinton '98 stands as the sole exception, because of the backlash against the impeachment. Point is, the GOP is probably better than even odds to be holding the White House in 2018, which means 2012 is simply a safer year to run a non-incumbent. Even if it's only the second year of a Republican Presidency it is not going to be a good year for non-incumbent Republicans in purple seats.

And I don't believe in "lock things down when they matter". The country is such a mess, in large part because no one has any incentive to do long-range thinking. Now always matters to people in politics. The future never matters. Thus absurd decisions like the establishment backing Crist in '10- he'll save us a few bucks, now, so no need to consider whether Rubio is a better long-range bet. Murdouck can win that seat this year. Presidential elections rarely result in massive tilts at the congressional level. If it's an open seat this year, Indiana's natural light red hue will assert itself and Murdouck will win by 5-6 points, minimum.

Hudson Valley Rep

I'm shocked Murdock is doing this bad in the general. I though he was one of the more electable tea partiers. Maybe we do need Lugar to keep this seat.

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