April 4, 2012

Poll Analysis: Gallup Daily Tracking Poll **Corrected**

Today’s Gallup daily tracking numbers are out. Here are the graphics from their site:

Mitt Romney drops a percentage drop to 40%. He has lost three ppts in two days.

Rick Santorum pushes and remains at 25%. He is now exactly 15 ppts behind Romney.

Ron Paul slides up one ppt to 12%, leapfrogging into third place.

Newt Gingrich drops a percentage point to 11%. He is now all alone in last place.

by @ 12:56 pm. Filed under Poll Analysis, Poll Watch
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57 Responses to “Poll Analysis: Gallup Daily Tracking Poll **Corrected**”

  1. machtyn Says:

    You may be able to correct this before anyone sees it. Last paragraph: “Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum Ron Paul continue…”

    In other news, it appears the Sunday effect happened a day late.

  2. Ryan60657 Says:

    Paul > Gingrich

    YAY!

    “Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum continue to be joined at the hip. They both push.”
    I think you mean Ron Paul, not Rick. Also, I don’t know what yesterday’s numbers were, but the chart does not suggest that they pushed — looks like Newt (-1) and Paul (+1).

  3. Cesar Says:

    “Santorum is irrelevant”

    -John McCain

  4. marK Says:

    I was both in a hurry AND distracted when I originally posted. Thank-you for catching the mistakes.

  5. Kentucky Wildcats 2012 Says:

    You gotta be freakin kiddin me. Well, after last night Mitt will be hitting 50 soon enough.

  6. Nevada Conservative Says:

    3

    True, but then McCain ruins it by saying Romney should put Palin on the ticket. ‘Cause that’s totally the kind of advice I would take from President McCai….oh wait.

  7. Sir David Says:

    I think its safe to say that Mitt is around 40s, will go higher…

    the fluctuations are nothing more than the variation of people polled. Never a perfect science.

  8. kris smith Says:

    This will go up soon.

  9. aspire Says:

    6 When it comes to irrelevance I trust McCain – he probably saw Santorum at one of the meetings. :)

  10. aspire Says:

    I keep wanting to see Romney’s numbers shoot past 50%, but I’m not too worried about a slight 2 day drop.

  11. Watchinitall Says:

    Santorum watches the film “300” once a week. He grimly feels recommitted to stay in the race.
    Gingrich watches the same film once a week and longs for the day when he can return to the Greek islands.
    Paul watches this same film once a week and is heard to sigh, “Those were the days!”

    Romney watched this film once and thought, “Overwhelming force! I’m going to out-fundraise ‘em!”

  12. Silver Says:

    “Time and time again, the Republican establishment and aristocracy have shoved down the throats of the Republican Party and people across this country moderate Republicans because, of course, we have to win by getting people in the middle,” Santorum said.
    WHAT AM I, BECAUSE I LIVE IN THE REAL WORLD! I AM A CHRISTIAN AND BELIEVE IN THINGS rOMMEY WANT’S TO DO. I AM NOT ESTABLISHMENT NOR ARISTOCRAT EITHER.
    he also said
    “We win by getting people to the middle to move to us and move this country forward.(WHY ISN’T HE WINNING THEN !!!)

  13. Silver Says:

    This is interesting : http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/

  14. K.G. Says:

    #3

    “Santorum is irrelevant”

    -John McCain

    Wrong again, John. Santorum is not exactly irrelevant because (1) People are still voting for him and (2) Mitt needs to keep running against him to keep his boot on Santy’s neck.

    More to the point, Mack’s darling Sarah is one of those clammering for an extended primary and a brokered convention, thus hurting Mitt, the GOP and our chances for defeating Obama. The Maverick needs to contact the Rogue and set her straight. She’s one of those ginning up this “awful campaign.”

    Actually, Mack was just using self-deprecating humor when he facetiously named Palin. He went on to name real possibilities: Ryan, Jindal, Daniels and Rubio.

  15. TexasTyrant Says:

    The longer Santorum stays relevant, the more nostalgic I get for Rick Perry, and that is saying a lot coming from me.

  16. Jason Says:

    While Romney will easily win the Republican nomination, he will be certain to get crushed in the swing states of Iowa, Florida, Ohio, and maybe even Virgina and North Carolina. The simple way to know this is to look at the portion of the very conservative portion of the electorate in all of the must win states. In the MUST win states of Florida and Ohio, Romney is only receiving in poll after poll after poll, no more than 23% of the Very Conservative vote in these 2 states. This is why Romney is only polling in the low 40’s in these two states. He needs to be winning roughly 84$ among the Very Conservative group and in the last round of polls conducted on or before Monday of this week not a single poll has Romney in Ohio or Florida above 23% among the Very Conservative portion of the Republican Electorate.

    So yes, Romney will win the Nomination but what good does it do if he fails in the one that counts? Maybe this is why former Republican House of Representative of Florida’s 1st congressional district (In office January 3, 1995 – September 5, 2001) had this to say about Romney’s chances in the Fall: http://newsbusters.org/blogs/mark-finkelstein/2012/04/04/scarborough-no-one-gop-establishment-thinks-romney-will-beat-obama

  17. Cesar Says:

    #14…….. is Santorum going to be the Nominee at the end of the day (most likely by April 24th)?

    “The Defense Rest……”
    -Vinny Gambini

  18. Jason Says:

    While Romney will easily win the Republican nomination, he will be certain to get crushed in the swing states of Iowa, Florida, Ohio, and maybe even Virgina and North Carolina. The simple way to know this, is to look at the portion of the Republican electorate among Very Conservative voters. In all of the MUST win states, of Florida and Ohio, Romney is only receiving in poll after poll after poll, no more than 23% of Very Conservative voters, in these 2 states.

    This is why Romney is only polling in the low 40?s in these two states. He needs to be winning roughly 84% among the Very Conservative base of the G.O.P. Electorate, and in the last round of polls conducted on or before Monday of this week, not a single poll has Romney in Ohio or Florida, above 23% among the Very Conservative portion of the Republican Electorate.

    So yes, Romney will win the Nomination, what good does it do him if he fails in the one that counts?

    Maybe this is why former Republican member in the House of Representatives of Florida’s 1st congressional district, Joe Scarborough,(In office January 3, 1995 – September 5, 2001) had this to say about Romney’s chances in the Fall: Watch the video. http://newsbusters.org/blogs/mark-finkelstein/2012/04/04/scarborough-no-one-gop-establishment-thinks-romney-will-beat-obama

  19. Greg Says:

    16. There are a ton of GOP Insiders that think Romney will win this November. Heck, he’s up by 3% on Obama in today’s Rasmussen poll. Florida, North Carolina, Indiana, Iowa and New Hampshire are already going to be Republican states this Fall. He only needs 1-2 more.

  20. jarvis Says:

    #16 Jason

    Give it up. Your candidate doesn’t have a stronger argument.

    Although I have always felt that if we are going to lose, we should lose big. So maybe Jason, we can agree and nominate santorum. At least with a big loss, we can sit down and reevaluate the republican brand/party.

  21. jarvis Says:

    *#18 Jason

  22. Boomer Says:

    16.

    Thats some seriously dumb analysis. What happens in the primary is not indicative of what will take place in the general election. Never has, never will. McCain didn’t lose to Obama because he didn’t get the Very Conservative vote and it wasn’t Palin who brought them in. McCain lost because Obama took a huge portion of the Independent vote. This is the vote that always swings the election and its why candidates are always accused of running to the middle in the general.

    This election is going to be a vote on Obama’s record whether he likes it or not. Romney did an excellent job today of pointing out that Obama loves to make strawmen arguments about Republicans so he can tear them down. But Romney is not going to let him get away with that this time. He laid out the attack he will be going after Obama with today and it was very effective.

    When November rolls around, the Republican Party will be very energized. Some of us will be voting because we believe in Romney and his vision. Some will be voting because they can’t stand Obama and his policies and are terrified what he might do in a 2nd term when he doesn’t have to worry about getting elected again. But Republican turnout will be big.

    The fight is for the Indy vote now. Just like always.

  23. Firecracker (Romney / Ryan) Says:

    I don’t give a rat’s @$$ what Joe Scarborough has to say. He’s not a conservative, but enjoys trashing them any chance he gets. As for his claims and no one in the GOP establishment think Romney can win, then WHY ARE THEY BACKING HIM? Santorum and Gingrich were not and have not received any significant endorsements.

  24. LV Says:

    It’s obvious that Santorum and Gingrich are staying in the race just to damage Romney’s character… They aren’t even campaigning on the issues anymore.

    Things are gonna be divided until Gingrich stops saying things like, he’s gonna make Romney work all the way to the convention… and Santorum insinuating Romney shouldn’t be the nominee because he’s a liar and a cheater…..and now they’re both going after the establishment.

    I think they’ve burned too many bridges, and would be surprised if they have any future place in the Republican party.

  25. Tony "ARF" Says:

    6. When did McCain say Romney should put Palin on the ticket?

    Do you have a link to a story?

  26. Boomer Says:

    25.

    http://washington.cbslocal.com/2012/04/04/mccain-romney-should-choose-palin-as-vice-presidential-candidate/

  27. Massachusetts Conservative Says:

    Scarborough is just like David Frum. They both hate conservative ideas, all of them, more than they dislike Obama.

  28. aspire Says:

    26 Wow. Just wow.

  29. Florida Conservative Says:

    Jason, I’ll never forget all the rude and vile things you said in response to me and many other’s on here only a month ago, you are a menace and the only thing that makes you happy is coming on here and spewing your hate for Mitt Romney, get a clue and more importantly, GET A LIFE!

  30. Jason Says:

    You McCain supporters all said how the Very Conservative voters would come home in the fall in 2008 and they did not in high enough numbers. McCain only received 76% among all very conservative voters nationally according to C.N.N. exit polls and 73% among Fox News exit polls in 2008 in the General Election.

    If McCain had gotten disaffected Huckabee voters from the 2008 Primary cycle, then how is it that McCain lost in the Hot Red states of Indiana and North Carolina ?

    They stayed home that is why John McCain lost in even red states like North Carolina and Indiana. The reason I am so doubtful Romney will win Ohio or Florida in the fall, is because if you look at the math, Romney is being resisted to a much larger degree than John McCain ever was in the 2008 primary cycle. Want proof, look at Ohio in the 2008 G.O.P. Primary. John McCain got 9,838,910 votes or 46.5%.

    In 2012 in Ohio, Romney got only 456,513 votes or 37.9%. That means Romney under performed John McCain’s 2008 Ohio Primary numbers by a profoundly huge 9 million 382 thousand 397 hundred, “LESS VOTES” than McCain in Ohio got in 2008 primary in just Ohio alone. Romney’s 9,382,397 less votes in Ohio in 2012 for any thinking not Romney crazed fool would spell huge trouble come November and is why I am so unconvinced Romney has any hope of winning.

    Plus poll after poll continue to show only 23% of Very Conservative voters in polls in Ohio and in Florida say they will vote for Romney in the General Election. Which is why I am certain Romney will get above 70% of Very Conservative voters in the fall let alone the required 84% Carl Rove says is needed to win a presidential general election. Remember John McCain got 76% according to C.N.N. general Election 2008 exit polls nationally, and he still lost big time. So if Romney is only getting 23% in a must win state of Florida and Ohio this game is over.

    Lose Ohio in the general, and as my African Grey Parrot says after a bad Dodgers baseball Game “GAME OVER.”

  31. Mittman Says:

    WE are doomed…Doomed I tell you..

    Unless the so called self described uber conservative voters decided their country is more important than themselves..

    Which will it be?

    My bet is on doomed…

  32. Mittman Says:

    As for Joe Scarborough he is still trying like Helck to impress Mika thinking hes got a chance or something. Never trust a man thinking with whats in his pants..

  33. Boomer Says:

    For those who missed Romney’s speech to the msm in DC today, the reviews are starting to come in.

    http://townhall.com/tipsheet/guybenson/2012/04/04/romneys_outstanding_response_to_obamas_worst_speech_yet

    Romney went right after Obama and ripped him a new one. Very nice.

  34. aspire Says:

    As a side note on Palin. I’ve long suspected she would make her career in the media (just look at her background), and recently she was on the Today show. Anyone have a specific place they think she’ll wind up on TV? Personally I’d love to see her on celebrity apprentice, but I suspect that would never happen.

  35. Teemu Says:

    Actually it is rather easy to calculate that McCain got more conservative votes in 2008, at least from non-African American, than Bush ever got in absolute numbers. Also it is easy to calculate that McCain’s white evangelical numbers were superior in absolute numbers compared to Bush. The main reason why Obama got nicer percentage of conservatives than Kerry, is that there is lots of African American, also some other minority voters, who connect word conservative with family man/woman and prefer to describe themselves as conservative, but would never even consider voting Republican.

    This is the reason for Obama’s conservative percentage, minority folks who prefer to describe themselves as conservative family men/women but who would never even consider voting Republican, turned out in greater numbers, to vote for election of the first African American president.

  36. Jason Says:

    Teemu, first of all in trying to convince any soul, provide footnotes to comments. You might want to take this advice. Without it your comments will fall on deaf ears.

  37. Jason Says:

    Teemu, secondly those very conservative voters making up 76% in C.N.N.’s exit polls nationally in 2008, were among Republican voters ONLY. Stop being so sloopy its not cool read the date. Come on you are smart.

  38. Independent CPA Says:

    Love the Yahoo headline, “Santorum slips into irrelevancy as Romney vs. Obama kicks into gear.”

  39. Teemu Says:

    36:

    By the way, where did you pull this crazy crap? The total of votes cast even in 2008 OH general election, total for both Obama and McCain combined, staid below 6 million, and now you claim that McCain got almost 10 million votes in OHio primary alone :D

    Want proof, look at Ohio in the 2008 G.O.P. Primary. John McCain got 9,838,910 votes or 46.5%.

    In 2012 in Ohio, Romney got only 456,513 votes or 37.9%. That means Romney under performed John McCain’s 2008 Ohio Primary numbers by a profoundly huge 9 million 382 thousand 397 hundred, “LESS VOTES” than McCain in Ohio got in 2008 primary in just Ohio alone. Romney’s 9,382,397 less votes in Ohio in 2012 for any thinking not Romney crazed fool would spell huge trouble come November and is why I am so unconvinced Romney has any hope of winning.

  40. Cesar Says:

    Jason is an Idiot!

  41. Teemu Says:

    Why did those 10 million OH primary McCain voters stay home and allow Obama to win OH general with less than 3 million votes cast to Obama in total:D

  42. Teemu Says:

    :D

  43. Jason Says:

    Teemu, Ever hear of Google? if not it is http://www.google.com TYPE in “2008 Ohio GOP Primary” Maybe you are stupid after all. Then type Ohio GOP Primary 2012. Grow a brain sweety.

  44. Cesar Says:

    Jason has a Parrot that he talks too, so it wouldn’t surprise me if he draws a Lightning Bolt on his forhead and points his Magic #2 Pencil at his TV yelling “Obamabarda Accio” every time Romney is on T.V.

  45. Cesar Says:

    PS: Jason calls other men “Sweety”, no wonder he hates Mitt and loves Obama. Nuff Said!

  46. Joshua Says:

    Teemu: The population of Ohio is only 11.5 million. How could McCain have gotten over 9 million votes in the Republican primary? Just subtracting the Democratic voters makes your supposed McCain total impossible, without even taking into account people under age 18, non-citizens, non-registered voters, and people who just didn’t care.

  47. Joshua Says:

    Sorry, it’s not clear to me whether it’s Teemu or Jason who thinks McCain got over 9 million votes in the 2008 primary.

  48. Teemu Says:

    46. That’s the point those Jason’s numbers are not possible. Looked at the 2008 Republican primary totals for the whole primary , seems that Jason is comparing Romney’s OH votes to those slighty less than 10 million votes that McCain got on every primary and caucus. Combined :D

  49. Jason Says:

    Major Correction. I somehow read the data in Ohio’s GOP Primary in 2008 wrong. I looked at the Secretary of States website for the official numbers in Ohio’s 2008 Primary and it shows McCain received 656,687 votes or 59.92%

    Whereas Romney in Ohio’s GOP Primary in 2012 received 456,513 votes or 37.9%. Than still shows Romney under performed McCain’s Ohio primary numbers by 200,174 votes or 22.02% Percent. Sorry for that stupid post showing Romney receiving several million less votes. IT WONT HAPPEN AGAIN!

  50. Mittman Says:

    Wait a second …Babys and children can vote in Ohio?? Man I see a free Binki enitlement coming to a planned parenthood near you..

    Why should babys have to pay for Binki’s??? Its shocking and wrong..!!

  51. Jason Says:

    That is the last time I trust Wikipedia.

  52. Cesar Says:

    Jason eating Crow……..num num num

  53. Jason Says:

    Romney in receiving 200,174 less votes in Ohio’s 2012 GOP Primary still proves my point that he is being resisted by all GOP voters in Ohio by 22.02% more so than McCain’s same 1st place finish in Ohio in 2008. So that is the story of Romney political.

    I mean did the RNC in making liberal leaning states winner take all, and Non Romney states proportional to give an unfair advantage to the Establishments favorite liberal, do did they really think the could get Very Conservative voters to vote for a Massachusetts liberal Apparently so. Up until lately. They are stuck with a zombie candidate and that is why they are all piling on the Death train known as the Romney campaign.

    Its all going to end in another freaking Republican loss. As with all past moderate. Maybe someday we will learn moderate always lose. Though I doubt it, because the RNC liberals are already talking about 2016. Which tells me they do not think Romney will win. I am hearing all over the web that when Romney loses they have Jeb Bush or Chris Christie as the favorite candidate for the GOP Primary of 2016. They must want to lose 3 cycles in a row or 12 long years. Maybe by 2020 they will get wise.

  54. Cesar Says:

    Every General Election we hear the same thing. McCain didn’t have a chance because of all the Bandwagon voters who decided to register after years of not caring. It has been proven that those who voted in 2008 only voted because of the possibility of making history by Electing the first African American President. These Bandwagon voters came in numbers. They didnt care about his Policies, hell they didnt even know what they were. If McCain would of ran against a John Edwards or John Kerry for example the results would of been different or atleast closer than what they were in 2008.

  55. Joshua Says:

    #53 Jason: The RNC didn’t decide to make liberal-leaning states winner take all and non-Romney states proportional. Those decisions were made by the state Republican committees themselves, subject to the requirement that a state could only be winner-take-all if it voted after April 1, so those decisions were also dependent on what the state legislatures did.

    If, say, Georgia or Mississippi had wanted to be winner-take-all, they would have to have moved their primaries until April or later.

  56. kris smith Says:

    Jason, poor Jason, now that his guy will not win, he’s holding his blanket, sucking his thumb and crying for mamma. :P

  57. kris smith Says:

    55

    Besides, not all “liberal” states that Romney won were winner-take-all.

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