April 2, 2012

Poll Analysis: Rasmussen Daily Tracking Poll

  9:17 am

Here are the results from today’s Rasmussen daily tracking poll:

(vs. Obama) Obama Candidate Candidate Lead
Romney 45 45 0
Paul 43 40 -3
Santorum 47 42 -5
Gingrich 48 38 -10

Here are still more signs of the race settling. Mitt Romney rises a percentage point to tie once again with Barack Obama. He’s been oscillating around tying the President for six weeks now. He’s never strayed more than 2 ppts from the President for a week now. For two weeks he’s been within 3 ppts.

Meanwhile Rick Santorum pushes for the second straight day, which drops him 1 ppt against Romney. That’s four straight days where he has been five ppts behind Obama.

Ron Paul and Newt Gingrich were polled once again. Paul actually does better than Santorum against the president. His -3 ppts is good enough for second place. Last week he tied Santorum at -5 ppts.

Taking his accustomed position, Newt Gingrich brings up the rear at -10 ppts. The guy has been in dead last place since February seventh nearly two months ago. The best he’s done was March 18th when he tied Ron Paul at -10 ppts behind both Romney and Obama who were also tied that day.



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To be honest, I will be pleasantly surprised if this race is tied the last weekend before the election.

That's not (completely) a knock on Romney either. I think this country is dying to give Obama the benefit of the doubt, and even if the economy is standing on the same wobbly legs it is now,- as long as it's standing- the country will reelect him.



Remember that these multiple one-on-one polls have an inherent bias.

"I love Candidate A. I would vote for Obama before I would ever vote for Candidate B." But when the actual election comes around, the guy will vote for Candidate B. So add two or three ppts to each of the scores against Obama.

Obama, running against no opposition, is in more trouble than our GOP candidates because of that.



Some of that may be reflected in Matt Coulter's Gallup poll, right below yours. Romney is running about 4-5 points low among Republicans. Since Republicans are about 40% of the electorate, then maybe the phenomenon you're talking about is costing him 1.5-2.

So I'll give him a 2 point bump.


If Obama is at 49, a la Gallup, we're in trouble. But if he's at 45, he's toast. This race is eminently winnable, and it will be done by an intelligently managed campaign and a forthright message.

Obama is vulnerable on the issues.....particularly on debt and energy.


Give em severe "Jokers to the left Clowns to the right" hell Mitt!


All of Mitt Romney's flip flops will be om stage when he tries to go after Obama. Romney will be seen as the partisan and that is why he will lose. Romney is nearly as vulnerable as Obama.



Don't you ever get tired of just looking for the bad in Mitt? Why not try looking for the good in him for change?


7. All of these flip-flops, eh? Most of Mitt's flips (they aren't flip-flops because Romney doesn't return back to the position he once held after holding the opposite point of view for a while) are straight from the imaginations of Romney's opponents.

Romney's enemies love to try to paint him as an unprincipled, power-at-any-expense guy. The truth, however, is the complete opposite. I hope Mitt's campaign is successful in rebuilding Mitt's once good name, at least among enough people to carry him to victory in November so that Mitt can prove to everybody that he is indeed a man of principle.

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