March 27, 2012

Poll Analysis: Rasmussen Daily Tracking Poll

Here are today’s Rasmussen daily tracking poll numbers for our candidates vs. Obama:

(vs. Obama) Obama Candidate Candidate Lead
Romney 45 44 -1
Santorum 47 42 -5
Paul n/a n/a n/a
Gingrich n/a n/a n/a

Here are the trend line graphs:

Mitt Romney climbs back 2 ppts to be bring him within 1 ppt of Obama.

Rick Santorum jumped 3 ppts and returns to 5ppts behind the President. Santorum is now only 4 ppts in back of Romney. That’s the closest he’s been to the Governor in a week.

No data on either Ron Paul or Newt Gingrich today.

by @ 9:13 am. Filed under Poll Analysis, Poll Watch
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75 Responses to “Poll Analysis: Rasmussen Daily Tracking Poll”

  1. Matthew E. Miller Says:

    You’ve switched Santorum and Paul at the top.
    ARRRGH!!! Thanks. MBL

  2. Nostradamus Says:

    It doesn’t matter.

    Give em severe “Hello Wisconsin” hell Mitt!

  3. Vladimir Putin Says:

    What is big deal about mandate? I mandate everything – my opponents to jail, oil revenues to my Swiss account, arms to Syria. Life is good when mandates happen.

  4. Tennessean for Mitt Says:

    Nostradamus – Is Mitt heading to Wisconsin after being on the Leno tonight?

  5. Florida Conservative Says:

    4

    I have a family friend that works for the Romney team up in Wisconsin, he was telling me all the final detail were being worked out but that he will be in WI beginning either tomorrow or Thursday and will be there over the weekend campaigning as well. Not to mention he said that Romney is absolutely smashing Santy over the airwaves there, Santy’s superpac just began airing ad’s today for $500,000, but Romney’s team already has spent combined with his Superpact closeto $3 Million! He thinks Romney will end up winning the state by at least 10 points when all is said and done, all good news!

  6. Florida Conservative Says:

    Also it should be pointed out that Molly Donlin, who led the effort here in Florida for Team Romney, then went on to run things in Ohio for Mitt is also now in Wisconsin so that is a good sign as well, you can follow her on Twitter for updates on the Mitt Team in Wisconsin.

  7. Florida Conservative Says:

    http://twitter.com/#!/mkdonlin

  8. Thunder (Romney the next presiden of the US) Says:

    The only poll that counts is Romney against Obama. The others are meaningless since Romney is the nominee.

  9. aviation Says:

    Hey There I very much enjoyed reading your blog. I’m thinking about beginning my own blog at some point Cheers.

  10. Tennessean for Mitt Says:

    5. Thanks for the good news. Hopefully we can have 3 wins next Tuesday and wrap this thing up.

  11. SixMom Says:

    This is the best article on VP selection I’ve seen so far. Very detailed, with pictures and strategy.

    Find out how your favorite pick fares against the analysis!

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/cifamerica/2012/mar/26/mitt-romney-choose-vp-running-mate

  12. Nostradamus Says:

    4.

    Yes he will be meeting with Packer fans.

    7.

    Going for the Hat Trick.

  13. BD1 Says:

    11. Yes, good summary VP analysis. Personally I think McDonnell is front runner.

  14. Katechon Says:

    Romney’s top donors :

    – Goldman Sachs
    – JP Morgan

    http://apnews.myway.com/article/20120327/D9TOPGM00.html

    Two of the most nefarious investment banking institutions.

    JPM was involved in the Corzine theft :

    ” The ex-Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) co-chairman gave “direct instructions” to move money from a U.S. account to meet an overdraft with JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) just days before MF Global’s bankruptcy, according to a memo by congressional investigators. Such accounts may have contained assets belonging to both customers and MF Global ”

    — from a Bloomberg release, yesterday

  15. Katechon Says:

    Source : http://mobile.bloomberg.com/news/2012-03-26/mf-global-s-corzine-may-be-liable-if-customer-risk-known.html

  16. Katechon Says:

    11-13 Harry Enten is a very interesting fellow. Follow him @ForecasterEnten

    He’s saying that Rubio, as a Cuban, ain’t popular amongst Latinos as we might have thought.

  17. Ryan60657 Says:

    Maybe it’s just me, but I continue to find the “second derivative” chart “Candidate versus Romney versus Obama” to be useless. Too many people will switch their votes to someone else (or third/fourth party) to draw any meaningful conclusions. It is a flawed analysis.

  18. SixMom Says:

    I like the second chart the best. It clearly shows who is on top.

  19. Katechon Says:

    ” On Friday Oct. 28, 2011, MF Global transferred $200 million from a segregated customer account at J.P. Morgan Chase (US:JPM) in London, the committee said. O’Brien wrote in an email the transfer was “per JC’s direct instructions.” O’Brien is due to testify on Wednesday before the subcommittee, and The Wall Street Journal reported she will invoke her constitutional rights against self-incrimination.

    Corzine, a former Goldman Sachs Group Inc. chairman, has said that he would never intend to direct to have customer funds transferred, but in testimony before Congress never firmly denied it.”

    http://articles.marketwatch.com/2012-03-23/economy/31228704_1_jon-corzine-customer-segregated-transfer

  20. Patrick Henry Says:

    19. Your point? This affects Romney how? Oh– I see, guilt by association.

  21. Katechon Says:

    I’m not saying Romney is corrupted. But given his stance for a weak dollar, coupled with him being financed by fraudsters GS & JPM, there’s a marginal chance that he is indeed a tool.

    Romney wants indeed a cheap dollar, highly inflationary, against a strong Yuan :

    http://mobile.nytimes.com/2012/03/23/us/politics/mitt-romneys-stance-on-china-trade.xml

  22. Katechon Says:

    20- my point is that could explain his weak dollar policy

  23. Katechon Says:

    20- why do think JPM & GS like Romney so much, hey?

  24. Ryan60657 Says:

    I would concede that Romney is and will be much more a friend to the Wall Street Banksters than Obama — certainly this time around (2012. The opposite was the case for Obama v McCain in 2008). However, Corzine himself is much more a FOO (Friend of Obama) than a FOM (Friend of Mitt).

  25. Ryan60657 Says:

    18. “I like the second chart the best. It clearly shows who is on top.”

    You might like it the best, but my point is that it is a specious analysis.

  26. Dave Says:

    The conclusion of Six Mom’s VP article was that if Romney’s equal or ahead, the VP pick would probably be Portman, and if he’s behind, and needs to re-shuffle the deck in order to make a statement, the pick will probably be Rubio. That’s with McDonnell number 3.

    That makes sense. Portman has first class executive and legislative experience, and gave Mitt the victory in Ohio, which he can do again. And he really knows his stuff…he will kill Biden. And, you can’t go wrong with Rubio as a campaigner and replacement later on.

  27. Patrick Henry Says:

    21. The NYT has no interest in a Romney presidency, therefore, writing about potential Romney presidency will be slanted, as is this story. Quoting Santorum’s campaign in story about Romney’s positions with China? Come on… that’s not reporting, that’s creating a narrative. Santorum’s campaign staff will say what they always say “Romney will say anything to get elected”. That’s the narrative that the Obama campaign wants, and the Santorum (and Gingrich) campaigns are assisting them in it.

    Give me a real report with exactly who from Goldman Sach’s has contributed and what that relationship is with Romney and you may have something. Plus, as mentioned Corzine is a FOO, not a FOM. GS also sees that a Romney presidency will be more business friendly in general (even if specifically, the Obama administration’s crony capitalism has been specifically friendly to some of them).

    Do you honestly think that Romney could run against crony capitalism then turn around and do the same things? That’s the best thing…

    Romney will be held to account for his campaign promises by both sides. He’s not going to govern differently than he’s campaigned.

  28. Katechon Says:

    From a website recommended by Sean Trende :

    http://www.opensecrets.org/pres12/contrib.php?id=N00000286

    Romney ‘s top contributors, the list.

    All the first ones are investment bankers.

    Maybe Santorum is right ….

  29. rightgal Says:

    Katechon, I’m not concerned about banking folks backing mitt.

  30. Boomer Says:

    28.

    Try to find one cycle when the top contributors to either the Republican or the Democrat candidate weren’t bankers. All it says is that the financial community views Romney as both the most business friendly candidate in the race and the one with the best chance to win.

    This is hardly surprisingly given that Obama is viewed as a disaster by the business community and there is nobody in this race, there has nobody in recent memory in a Presidential race, with as much business experience and success as Romney.

  31. Katechon Says:

    27 – do you have a link to the 5 executive orders Romney says he’ll order on day one?

  32. SixMom Says:

    23-This is how conspiracy theories are born. A few facts, without all the facts.

    To answer your question…Because Obama screwed up the economy so bad. Did you expect them to like or back Santorum? Or how about Ron Paul?

    I’m not the banking crowds’ fans nor their advocates, but I have to guess they’re as concerned about their IRA’s and investments and the economy as I am….so of course they’re going to support who they know will help the economy best, a direct and all-consuming point for them.

  33. Katechon Says:

    One of the executive orders Romney “says ” he will pass, is very dangerous :
    ” •Directs the Department of the Treasury to list China as a currency manipulator in its biannual report and directs the Department of Commerce to assess countervailing duties on Chinese imports if China does not quickly move to float its currency”

    That is probably why GS AND JPM like Romney : cheap dollar = inflation = massive loss of purchasing power for the non-hedged folks

    It’s virtually short selling the American people

  34. SixMom Says:

    33. Just so I understand….are you advocating for China’s interests over our own? You’re aware they already own us…virtually?

  35. Vladimir Putin Says:

    #33 – That is just gibberish for the base, I would hope. But it does open Romney up to criticism that he doesn’t understand foreign affairs as evidenced by his Russia comment yesterday.

  36. Katechon Says:

    34- duh?

    What I’m saying is: an unpegged Yuan = a weaker dollar = higher inflation in America = folks suffering a lot (especially pensioners, low wagers, people who aren’t hedged against inflation, who don’t own gold for instance, or oil futures, etc)

  37. wateredseedsforJESUS Says:

    34,

    He’s saying that Romney is advocating China’s interests over our own. I disagree…but it’s a good point.

  38. Katechon Says:

    34- why is Romney insisting so aggressively for a free floating Yuan

    It’s not pandering : it’s one of the five executive orders he promises to pass on day one

  39. SixMom Says:

    #37 How is Romney advocating China’s interests over our own?

  40. Vladimir Putin Says:

    38 “It’s not pandering : it’s one of the five executive orders he promises to pass on day one”

    Remember etch a sketch. I would no more expect Romney to follow through than I expected Obama to close Guantanomo.

  41. Katechon Says:

    34- it’s pretty clear from past patterns that Bernanke will start the printing press again, massively printing, as soon as the Yuan is floating

  42. wateredseedsforJESUS Says:

    39,

    I said i disagreed with the statement…so you’ll have to ask someone else. :)

  43. SixMom Says:

    A stronger free-floating yen means China will start consuming and importing a whole lot more. It will do a lot to balance the trade deficit and level the playing field. We’re international retailers. Nothing can be shipped to China, yet we buy their goods quite frequently. Romney is lessening the imbalance and their strangle hold on us.

    Understand it.

  44. NY4Romney(Romney/Jindal 2012) Says:

    Has anyone seen this?
    http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Elections/From-the-Wires/2012/0327/Newt-Gingrich-50-per-photo-as-campaign-struggles
    Apparently Newt is now charging $50 per photo.

  45. Katechon Says:

    39- like every country, China is governing between inflation and unemployment

    A strong Yuan reduces inflation, but triggers higher unemployment
    And vice versa

    What investment banking needs is cheap money, a zero interest dollar
    That the fed provides with quantitative easing : money “printing ”
    That is possible only as other currencies becomes weaker — there’s always an dynamic balance to be reached between currencies in order to prevent brutal currency wars

    Cheap dollar = INFLATION = American people losing their purchasing power

  46. Ryan60657 Says:

    28.

    2012: Romney: Wall St. Banksters are top 6 contributors; represent 8 of the top 10; and 13 of his top 20 contributors.
    2012: Obama: No Wall St. Banksters among his top 20; his top donors are dominated by trial lawyers (7 of 20) and Academic institutions (5 of 20)

    2008: Obama: 3 of top 10 and 5 of top 20 were Wall St. Banksters. Others included academic institutions.
    2008: McCain: All top 5 were Wall St Banksters. And 10 of the top 20.

    Observations: Romney has only slightly more support from Wall St. than Johnny Mac did in 2008, while Barry has lost all his support from the Banksters.

  47. Dave Says:

    There are pros and cons concerning a weak Yuan, but there are no pros to China’s stealing patents, copywrights, designs, entire products, and licensing. Knock-offs are a national industry, but it’s hurting American producers. It has to stop.

    BTW, The Chinese would be ecstatic about a Romney Presidency despite his getting tough with them….it would mean that the more than a Trillion Dollars they have will be secure, and that we can keep paying them back with interest.

    Right now, that’s in serious doubt.

  48. Katechon Says:

    As other currencies become *stronger *, not weaker

    Best position is the weakest currency possible while managing high employment at home : because you export a lot and force domestic consumption

  49. Katechon Says:

    47 – but Romney ‘s executive order doesn’t address intellectual property! ;)

  50. Katechon Says:

    47– lol

    Romney would pay them back with a dollar extraordinarily weakened…

  51. Dave Says:

    Katechon,

    To assume that Romney supports a weak dollar is nonsense. His policies for strengthening the economy and reducing the deficit by massive budget cutting will strengthen the dollar more than anything.

  52. Ryan60657 Says:

    Higher inflation is not the end of the world, especially when we’ve been running inflation (ex food and energy) around 1%-2%. I would trade a CPI ex food/energy of around 3-4% for a 2-3% decline in our unemployment rate and significant reduction in our trade deficit with China.

  53. SixMom Says:

    #46

    RyanObservations: Romney has only slightly more support from Wall St. than Johnny Mac did in 2008, while Barry has lost all his support from the Banksters.

    And that’s WITH the bail-out.

    Bankers are top contributors period. There’s no conspiracy here.

    However there is an argument over the net effect of floating yuan. I’m not going to trust a liberal media rag to explain the pros and cons. Hope we can find a better source! I would have Romney explain it before I would whole-heartely condemn it. But as a business person, I can see great benefit into turning China into a land of consumers and importers rather than the export purists they currently are. We now send them all our money and they buy us out. They own Costco, among other things.

  54. Katechon Says:

    48 / best position for the elite, not for your pensioners and average folks

  55. Ryan60657 Says:

    51.

    Romney will cut spending, but not by much. And his reduced tax revenue will more than offset his spending cuts, resulting in *higher* budget deficits, not lower.

  56. Dave Says:

    49,

    Romney’s executive order may not, but his administration definitely will…..it falls under the aegis of ‘the rule of law.’

  57. Dave Says:

    Ryan,

    To assume that Romney won’t cut spending by much is tantamount to asserting that you know nothing about him and why he’s running. It’s his raison d’etre.

  58. Katechon Says:

    51- could you please explain to me how insisting on a free floating Yuan could possibly trigger a stronger dollar?

    I repeat : a floating Yuan = a stronger Yuan = massive American quantitative easing = weak weak dollar = hyperinflation in America

  59. Katechon Says:

    56– it’s clearly not as important as a floating Yuan – according to his own economic plan

  60. SixMom Says:

    58. For how long? Romney’s plan is clearly a long-term cure. When exports are strengthened and the trade deficit shrinks, those have significant effects on our economic well being. You may be correct about an initial effect with inflation, assuming Bernanke does what you say he will, but surely you’re not suggesting we should keep going down the road we have been economically speaking?

    You’re highlighting one effect and ignoring the others. It’s the net effect and the long-term effect that matters the most. Cures are not easy.

  61. Dave Says:

    Katechon,

    Obviously, a stronger Yuan would weaken the dollar vis a vis the Yuan….that goes without saying. But it doesn’t preclude a stronger dollar vis a vis everyone else. You’re only looking at one variable!

    The dollar will strengthen as Federal Spending goes below 20% of GDP from its current more than 25% of GDP. It will strengthen as regulations with negative economic impact are suspended and as severe tax cuts ensue.

    And it will strengthen as our international property rights are, once again, protected.

  62. Conservative Independent Says:

    #7 that link doesn’t work. mkdonlin is a Guardian reporter

  63. Katechon Says:

    Would it be the same under Romney?

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/corzine-is-getting-a-pass-would-you-2012-03-27

    Probably. I’d bet on it

  64. Katechon Says:

    61/- weaker Yuan = GREEN LIGHT FOR QE3

  65. SixMom Says:

    63. “Probably. I’d bet on it”

    First, that’s speculative. Second that author is highly slanting the Treyvon story, so he destroys his own credibility. He’s inciting indignation with non-facts.

    Third: How is Romney or Obama responsible for police decisions in L.A., or court proceedings and our current broken justice system? I always thought the justice system was broken due to liberal policies, not conservative ones. You’re now gong to pin this on one person and not all of us as a collective whole? Municipal and court decisions belong to those who make them…

    Lashing out at Romney as if he somehow caused these things is uber non-sequitor.

  66. Katechon Says:

    65- solidarity among investment bankers? Among Wall Streeters?

  67. SixMom Says:

    66. Are you an OWS? Are corporations people? Is venture capital bad?

    Those people are not all crooks, and their businesses thrive when the overall economy is healthy. We ALL do. Maybe their interests are selfish, but we do share a common interest in a better economy and leveling the playing field with China. That benefits all of us.

    The fact that they heavily backed McCain and Obama undoes the conspiracy theory.

  68. Katechon Says:

    67- I’m a red blooded capitalist. Wouldn’t mind if the police were to beat the heck out of OWers.

    Corzine ain’t a capitalist, but a thief. Going unpunished.

  69. Katechon Says:

    67- I’m guessing you’re amongst the Republican retards unable to understand the importance of a regulated financial order, in which individuals and corporations should assume responsibility of their actions : let them fail, prosecute their crimes

    This ain’t anti capitalism. This is essential conditions to capitalism. :roll:

  70. Katechon Says:

    Corporations are people, obviously.

  71. SixMom Says:

    68. And whose administration is responsible for that?

    You’re right about the broken justice system. I’ve found out the hard way myself there is little justice and equity there.

    There’s the Legislative branch (currently a joke), the judicial branch (currently a joke) and the executive branch (currently a joke).

    Romney is the first hope I’ve had in a long, long time.

  72. Katechon Says:

    67- I’m done with you. I’m not a theory conspirationist. Nor am I against capitalism. You’re not responding to my points.

  73. SixMom Says:

    69. No thanks Katchon…the rudeness just ended this discussion.

  74. Ryan60657 Says:

    57.

    Is cutting spending now Mitt’s “raison d’etre”? I thought it was jobs and the economy, but maybe that was last week. The fact is that Romney has committed to spending $100 billion MORE on defense. Another $100 billion MORE on building and staffing a fence across the desert. And his spending and tax reform proposals will WORSEN the deficit. On deficit issues, he is not credible.

  75. DrJeckyllAZ Says:

    29. Ditto.

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