March 25, 2012

Louisiana Final Results

The final results from the Louisiana Primary are in. With 100% of the precincts reporting, we have:

Votes (%)
Santorum 91,305 48.99%
Romney 49,749 26.69%
Gingrich 29,655 15.91%
Paul 11,460 6.15%
Other 4,208 2.26%
Total 186,377 100.00%

Congratulations to Rick Santorum. He beat Mitt Romney by a little more than 22 ppts. That is quite an impressive margin of victory.

Santorum and Romney were the only two who broke the 25% barrier making them eligible for a share in the 20 delegates at stake today. Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul did not. So they come away with nothing.

This is a serious blow to Gingrich. He was counting on wins in the South to propel his campaign, but this makes the fifth straight state in the South to go to his rival, Santorum. The earlier ones were Tennessee, Oklahoma, Alabama, and Mississippi. If the former speaker cannot win at least five states, his name cannot be presented at the convention to be nominated. He has only won two so far and is rapidly running out of states where he has a reasonable chance to win.

The turnout was rather anemic. I have read that there are over 750,000 registered Republicans in the State of Louisiana, and less than 200,000 showed up to vote. If that first number is correct, that means less than 25% of the state’s Republicans turned out to vote. Ouch! The news is not all bad. They did improve upon 2008′s turnout of only 156,101 votes.

But no matter how small a turnout, a win is a win. So congratulations, Senator Santorum.

by @ 12:01 am. Filed under Election Results
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73 Responses to “Louisiana Final Results”

  1. Right Wingnut Says:

    Mark, You forgot Oklahoma…another Southern state in which Newt finished 3rd.

  2. Right Wingnut Says:

    I wouldn’t be too giddy about the weak turnout. As the likely nominee, Mitt will need to reverse that trend.

    Who’s voters do you suppose didn’t show up tonight? As of about a week ago, this was still a relatively close race.

  3. barktwiggs Says:

    Congrats to Santorum and supporters on winning Louisiana. Treasure these memories come April 3rd.

  4. Dave Says:

    There were only 20 delegates at stake, and apparently Mitt got 7 out of the 20, while Santorum got 13. Rick needs to pick up a lot more than 6 delegates per state.

    This is why the delegate math for Mitt is inevitable. A case in point is the Los Angeles Times Poll today that has Mitt leading in the largest state by 19 points. Now THAT’S a state with REAL delegates at stake!

  5. marK Says:

    RW,

    Thanks for the OK tip.

  6. krissmith777 Says:

    4

    I take it you mean this poll:

    http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-na-poll-presidential-20120325,0,7993161.story

    Happy to be a Californian. :)

    Oh wait, CA doesn’t really count, because this is a liberal state. So a Mitt win here means nothi—- oh never mind, :P

  7. Conservative Gladiator Says:

    Santorum will ride through the primary unless Pennsylvania’s numbers turn against him or Toomey decides to jump into the fray and help Romney make a push for Penn. If April 3rd is bad enough it may pull Pennsylvania away from Santorum and he’ll quit by then. There is no way he’s going to fight Penn only to lose.

  8. K.J. Says:

    Yes – a win is a win. Santorum continues to get the “Evangelical – my pastor told me I can’t vote for a Mormon vote”. Romney will win the nomination without their support. Romney is proving that the far right social conservatives are not the base of the republican party – they are an extreme element within the party – but they are not the base. The base of the party is shifting to fiscal conservatives.

  9. krissmith777 Says:

    7

    Well, Toomey seems dangerously close to helping Romney. He’s now calling Romney a conservative;

    http://articles.mcall.com/2012-03-23/news/mc-pat-toomey-mitt-romney-pa-2012-20120323_1_romney-nomination-mitt-romney-massachusetts-health-care-plan

  10. Arizona Says:

    I will use the CNN line

    Santorum won but does it really matter. If 13 to 7 in delegates then it was almost meaningless.
    After all in less then 2 weeks Romney will win DC which Santorum failed to qualify for the ballot
    That alone will amount for 19 delegates which more then wipes out the Santorum 6 delegate advantage
    tonight.

  11. Massachusetts Conservative Says:

    More Republicans voted in Cook County, IL than in the entire state of Louisiana.

    More also voted in Maricopa County, AZ.

    More voted in NH.

    More voted in Miami-Dade + Broward County.

  12. marK Says:

    RW.2

    I rather suspect that everyone’s voters were down.

    I can’t help but wonder if Mitt had put forth some real effort in the state that he might have done better. He was off the lead by just a bit more than 40,000. Every additional 2000 votes would be a percentage point for him. 40K votes is nothing when you have over 500,000 who didn’t even bother to show up.

    But I suspect Mitt decided in the cold primary calculus, it would be better to spend him money and efforts in more friendly environments like Wisconsin and Illinois.

  13. Dave Says:

    According to one source, Santorum only won 10 delegates, while Mitt won 5…..which would leave 5 unpledged…..so Rick would only gain 5 delegates instead of 6. If Green Papers is right, the split is 13 to 7.

    Either way, it doesn’t affect the race. What’s important is that Mitt got more than 25%.

  14. aspire Says:

    I wouldn’t call this “final results” as the caucus is still to come. Also the increase in voters is most likely due to the fact that in 2008 the primary carried zero delegates.

  15. aspire Says:

    All Romney needs to do is take the soundtrack from the “beef, it’s what’s for dinner” commercial and make an ad for the Southern/rural areas, and he’ll be great.

    http://race42012.com/2012/02/14/new-santorum-michigan-tv-ad-very-very-best-chance/

  16. aspire Says:

    10 Whaaaaaaat? I’m sure Romney’s staff is pulling an all-nighter in the war room trying to figure out how to get back these 6 delegates right now. ;)

  17. Katechon Says:

    No new polling in Wisconsin?

  18. Will Says:

    Santorum Super PAC send out anti-Mormon email:

    http://myemail.constantcontact.com/False-Prophets-Arise-Again-In-The-Presidential-Race.html?soid=1011287334085&aid=Ajv6AAZY_MM

    Can we please take this issue seriously already? How much more evidence do we need?

  19. FrankoSatchmo Says:

    4. krissmith777,

    Didn’t California pass a law that the FE candidate with the most votes in the election gets all of CA electoral votes, which means Mitt does not have to win in CA; he just has to get the most votes nationally.

  20. FrankoSatchmo Says:

    Sorry, 19 was for post #6; not post #4.

  21. FrankoSatchmo Says:

    18. If Santorum had any decency, he would repudiate that emeil.

  22. marK Says:

    Will.18,

    Yes, the email is despicable, but get your facts straight.

    “Restore America”, the group responsible, is NOT a Super-PAC. They are 501(c)3 group. Here is their home website. They have no particular connection to Santorum. They are just one of many such groups having their say in this election. Romney being a Mormon brings them out of the woodwork.

    They have no particular connection with Santorum. Rick’s “official” Super-PAC is the “Red, White, and Blue” PAC. If you’ve got a ton of money you wish to donate to help Santorum, that is where you send money to. “Leaders for Families” is another S-PAC that supports Santorum in a much smaller way.

  23. CalGTR Says:

    18. Unbelievable. Any doubts now about the true source of much (certainly not all) of Santorum’s support is coming from? If Santorum had any decency at all, he’d take his PAC to the woodshed. I know he can’t coordinate with them, so he’ll be able to deny any real involvement, but there’s nothing stopping him from denouncing these actions. Are these types of voters seriously going to never vote for a Mormon, ever? Even if it means Obama gets another 4 years? That well may be the case. I’m hoping the numbers will be small enough by the time November rolls around that it doesn’t cost us a state somewhere, but I guess we’ll see. It’s really unbelievable.

  24. marK Says:

    Frank.21:

    “If Santorum had any decency, he would repudiate that emeil.”

    I am certainly no Santorum fan, but why should he? Rick cannot be held responsible for every nutjob or jerk who supports him anymore than Romney should be held accountable for everyone who supports him.

  25. CalGTR Says:

    22. Oh, OK. Makes me feel a bit better. I though Restore America was the super PAC.

  26. Ci2Eye Says:

    It’s past time for Newt to go back to peddling those Ellis the Elephant children’s books with Calista.

    If he couldn’t win today, I don’t see another state for him. If, in fact, he needs to win five to even be presented for the nomination, I don’t see how someone as smart as Newt thinks he can possibly go on and keep telling folks he’s gonna deny Romney the victory. It just isn’t going to happen for him.

    I know he’s wanted to be President for most of his life and at 68, this looks like the last train but I’m sorry, the train has left the station and Newt’s still standing on the platform rambling on about $2.50 gas.

  27. CalGTR Says:

    24. I agree that Santorum can’t be responsible for everything done in his name by whoever. If it had been his main superPAC, sure he should say something, but it’s not. Small potatoes.

  28. marK Says:

    Ci2Eye.26,

    I’ve got a theory about Newt. I suspect that at least part of the reason Newt is staying in is to try to rehabilitate his image after his epic meltdown last January. He is smart enough to realize that he really went over the top.

    Remember, he has to make a living after this is through. If the last things people remember about you are rants and raves and foaming at the mouth, your income is going to dry up.

    So he is going to try and stay in long enough to prove that he really is a reasonable fellow after all.

  29. Candy Says:

    Santorum’s entire campaign has hinged on getting the votes of people who have been taught in their churches to hate, fear or distrust Mormons. That’s why he campaigns in their churches and refuses to denounce them, just tries to distance himself when their bigotry becomes known, as he did on Hugh Hewitt’s radio show when asked about the anti-Mormon pastor in Florida that was calling on Romney to renounce his religion and the radio host from American Family Association (I think) who is on record saying first amendment religious freedom protections don’t apply to non-Christians. Santorum has financial backing from a lot of Evangelical leaders who want to “stop the Mormon” as Chris Matthews talked about during the South Carolina primary. I’m not saying all Santorum’s support comes from this group, but it is a big factor. I don’t think his campaign would have gone anywhere without it.

  30. Teemu Says:

    17:

    Nope.

    But these McCain – Huckabe results (Romney suspended campaign Feb 7) from Feb 12, 2008, a week before Wisconsin, and Feb 19 Wisconsin primary, don’t look that good for Santorum

    http://politics.nytimes.com/election-guide/2008/results/votes/index.html

    Feb 12:
    Virginia 50-41 (+9)
    Maryland 55-29 (+26)

    Feb 19:
    Wisconsin 55-37 (+18)

  31. Ci2Eye Says:

    #28 MarK,

    Sounds reasonable but he still rants. He’s still out there spewing what my Dad calls “poison” against Romney and sounding like a scorned lover.

    He needs to do exactly what you say which is to rehabilitate his public image and regain his stature as a bit of an elder statesman but his rhetoric still sounds a lot like January to me.

  32. Will Walworth Says:

    Santorum fell further behind after LA. He needs to pick up 70 percent of the remaining delegates to secure the nomination. He fell short by five percent in LA, his “blowout win” deep south state. If the best he can get puts him five percent further behind, he has no hope.

  33. Heath Says:

    Stop suggesting Santy ever had a hope before today! Flat earth stuff. Please.

  34. edddy Says:

    MEANINGLESS WIN for Rick. Check out INTRADE, Romney getting ready to clean house, big time.

  35. Jerald Says:

    Folks, we know the anti-Mormon bias is out there…but…

    I think harping on it and harping on it will just make it worse.

    There is also an anti-rich guy bias out there as well.

    It is what it is……Mitt just has to deal with it like Obama has to deal with the loonies who think he heads a Muslim sleeper cell.

    However….I don’t want to have to see the anti-Mormon or anti-anything poison on this blog, so here’s hoping that Kavin bands them all promptly…

  36. Katechon Says:

    35- ” .I don’t want to have to see the anti-Mormon or anti-anything poison on this blog,”

    I understand the feeling, but it won’t happen. This poison is part of the dynamic ; it does inform the race.

    It’s actually a critical element. For it’s very hard to understand the anti-Romney affect of the Evangelical vote without it.

  37. Katechon Says:

    30— thank you Teemu.

  38. Katechon Says:

    Off topic –

    What do you guys think of Sandoval as a potential Romney VP?

    http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brian_Sandoval

  39. Pablo Says:

    Mark,

    Can we dispense with the “this was a serious blow to Gingrich” line. That’s like saying that shooting a man who is already dead is detrimental to that man’s heath. Gingrich is completely irrelevant and has been for at least a month now.

  40. Jerald Says:

    I think the dynamic of the race has changed.

    Just as Ron Paul will stay in until the end to get out his Libertarian message, Santorum will stay in as long as possible to strengthen his “True Christian warrior” following. It’s not about winning any more……it’s about winning as much as possible.

    Santorum will stay as long as there are little battles to win or until the loosing starts to hurt his “True Christian warrior” brand.

    From here on out, it’s all about just how well Santorum can use the rest of the primary to build his brand as a “True-Christians-Only” Culture War General complete with all the perks that come with the position…

  41. Jerald Says:

    #36….I think you’re speaking more from a betting perspective there…

  42. Katechon Says:

    38 – I remember he endorsed Perry, but I’m pretty sure Romney doesn’t mind.

    Besides : http://m.lvsun.com/news/2012/jan/26/mitt-romney-mentions-brian-sandoval-cabinet-possib/

  43. Katechon Says:

    41- yes, I am.

    Regarding the dynamic : Southeastern Louisiana — Catholic — voted for McCain in 2008 by big margin.
    Yesterday, they didn’t vote for the establishment candidate. They acted as other pro huckabee counties, going for Santorum by double digits

  44. Katechon Says:

    40- agreed. Well said. However that was always the case imo. I’ve never thought for a second that Santorum had a shot. I don’t think he did either ; but I might have been very naive.

    I thought Gingrich had a shot, during SC, but now I’m amazed I did. Since Florida, it was always Romney or a convention disaster. Since Michigan, it’s Romney all the way.

  45. OHIO JOE Says:

    “my pastor told me I can’t vote for a Mormon vote” Really? Lots of non-Mormons vote for the Mormon candidate. Now how many Mormons vote for the Catholic or the Protestant candidates? This religious nonsense is getting old. When a few (not necessarily many) loose cannon Mormons stop their bigotry against Catholics and Protestants, maybe will we talk religion, but it the meantime, all this crying is disgraceful especially when there is plenty of non religious reasons to vote against Mr. Romney. All this bigotry baiting is an easy way to avoid talking about Mr. Romney’s policy and campaign short-comings. Such non-sense does not promote your candidate, the party, the country nor your religious beliefs.

    “True-Christians-Only” This memo is silly, Mr. Santorum never claimed to be the only Christian in the country nor more Catholic than the Pope which some of you guys like to claim, but keep it up anyway if it makes ya’ll feel good.

  46. Katechon Says:

    Rejoice, Romney supporters :

    ” history shows that whenever once-elected presidents seek a second chance, more often than not the people say no.”

    http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2012/03/23/for-u-s-presidents-odds-for-a-second-term-are-surprisingly-long.html

  47. ccr Says:

    #45……….Mr. Santorum allows the “true Christian” label to be applied to him. If he were one to respect religious freedom and intent of Article 6, he would make it known that Romney’s religion is NOT an issue. But Santorum does NOT. He ONLY comments/”rebukes” bigoted remarks from his big PAC donor (who has stood behind/beside him a a couple of photo op occasions, btw), or preachers who introduce him when ASKED about it. He shows NO leadership or respect for religious freedom. He IS using the bias against Mormons to his political advantage. That is a fact.

    Yesterday, I attended a county GOP convention and sat at the Romney table. I had several mention to me that they had been asked or told “You know he’s a Mormon” or “How can you vote for a Mormon?” Yes, it does exist heavily in “Bible belt” states. Oklahoma has already voted and I’m proud to say that Mitt only lost by just less than 6% here.

    @29 Candy, I agree.

  48. ccr Says:

    It now looks like a long, dry spell for Mr. We-Might-As-Well-Keep-Obama-Than-Romney!

    (and then one of Santorum’s campaign guys says, Romney will probably have Obama as his running mate…)

    Santorum complains about his comments about Obama/Romney were blown all out of proportion. AGAIN, another hypocritical statement as it was Santorum HIMSELF blowing out of proportion and taken out of context, NOT Mitt’s words but, Eric Fernstrohm’s remarks. Oh, the list of Santorum’s hypocrisies, ironies, lies continue.

    We knew RS would win LA. He won handily w/actual votes, but not making much headway with the delegate count.

  49. Craigs Says:

    CCR. yes, sadly, I have come to believe you are right. I had forgotten about religious bigotry after Kennedy’s election in 1960. I really thought we were beyond that. I suspected it was involved again in 2008, but it is running rampant in the south this year. I have lived in the south for 37 years and I listen to my friends and family. There is a really significant anti Mormon bias in the souh, hiding under a mantle of acceptable biases involving social issues. If this mantle were taken away….the religious bias would remain and still be used against Romney. I believe many EV will sit on their hands in November and let Obama be re elected. It is sad for the nation ………but it is similar to the anti Jewish and anti black bias that was often hidden under other more legitimate issues. I hope I am mistaken , but I have spoken to many folks in the south and it is always just under the surface. Romney will be the nominee………but , unlike his own class act in 2008 to drop out and endorse McCain, that won’t happen with Santorum , although it might with Gingrich

  50. Matthew E. Miller Says:

    Katechon,

    Sandoval is pro-choice. So no. Unless Obama, like, declares the second amendment null and void, a pro-choice running mate would kill turnout among Republicans. Plus, Sandoval’s in the same position as Haley and Martinez- he’s a green Governor with a steep learning curve. Those make terrible VP’s. Ask John McCain.

  51. OHIO JOE Says:

    “If he were one to respect religious freedom and intent of Article 6, he would make it known that Romney’s religion is NOT an issue.” He already has, now we ask Mormons to promote religious freedom for non-Mormons as well.

    “NOT Mitt’s words but, Eric Fernstrohm’s remarks” So why is not Mr. Fernstrohm fired.

  52. G Says:

    51

    In what way are Mormons restricting the religious freedom of others?

    Is the right to compare voting for a Mormon to voting for Nazis really something that we want to be vigorously defending in this party?

  53. Nostradamus Says:

    Good morning WISCONSIN!

  54. Riccardo Says:

    Let’s move on from LA, as it could not have been more irrelevant. Cease posting here Romney-bots, and let’s feed the trolls no more.

  55. Jose Says:

    Rasmussen has Romney over Obama 45-43 today

    that poll jumps around like crazy

  56. Jonathan Says:

    Well I wish the margin had been better but even the media people are asking “does it really matter” about the Pelican State. Aside from idiots like Bill Kristol, the reality that Romney is going to be the nominee has sunk into the pundit class. A huge victory in D.C., Maryland and Wisconsin will help wind down the contest. If Romney sweeps the April primaries, the race will be over.

    Newt needs to drop out; he’s worse than an annoyance at this point, he’s a non-factor with a big mouth. There are only 3 Southern states left (Arkansas, Texas, and North Carolina) and Newt isn’t going to win any of them or even accumulate more than a couple of delegates in those states. He has absolutely no legitimate reason to stay in the race.

  57. allen8 Says:

    Who do these evangelical Baptist preachers think they are? Definition of Cristian: One Who beleives in and follows Christ.Christ will Be the judge of that not them. I look at what Mitt has done with his life. Nobody can say that man has not lived a christ like life. They cant see into his heart, only how he lives his life.That speaks for itsself,only evangelicals cant see him for what he is,He will prevail with or without them.

  58. K.G. Says:

    Here’s the catch as quoted in the Restore America letter (Isn’t that Newt’s Super PAC?)

    “The time has come that Christians must vote for honest men, and take consistent ground in politics or the Lord will curse them… Christians have been exceedingly guilty in this matter. But the time has come when they must act differently… God will bless or curse this nation, according to the course Christians take.”

    Rev. Charles G. Finney (1792-1875), Revivalist in the Second and Third Great Awakenings, College President.

    Evangelical “Christians” (the only true Christians in their mind) will only vote for a “Christian” or the country will be cursed. But the catch is only THEY get to define what it is a Christian and if the candidate, a self-avowed Christian, doesn’t meet THEIR criteria, then they will refuse to vote for him/her.

    This is insidious and evil at its core. It cannot be the Spirit of God that teaches this. This is essentially want Granny T wrote here @ Race: The country will be cursed unless we have a “true Christian” as POTUS, and we evangelicals judge Mormons to be not Christian: Ergo a vote for a Mormon POTUS will bring the curse of God upon our dear nation.

    This is very similar to Cotton Mather and the Salem Witch Trials. The confused, deceived or just plain liars made absurd accusations and the more the accused attempted to defend themselves, the more guilty they were found to be. The “witches” were hanged in an effort to “purify” Salem and avoid the curse of God. We are living in the dang 17th century. It’s as if the Age of Enlightment never happened.

    “Men” like Gingrich, Huckabee and Santorum are all too happy to take advantage of this not-from-God mindset.

  59. Will Says:

    22 – I don’t really care what you call them or what their tax status is? The fact that they are posing as a non-profit charitable organization makes this even more objectionable, in my mind.

    The truth is that they are raising money and making efforts to support Santorum and bash Romney over his religion. This isn’t some po dunk group. It is about time we take this bigotry seriously! Santorum should be called on it, just like Perry was and just like Huckabee was. It is appaling.

  60. K.G. Says:

    I’m calling you out, David Cole, CEO of Restore America. You claim a vote for a Mormon is like a vote for a Nazi. I’m saying a vote for your guy and your point of view is like a vote for a Nazi. Wasn’t it the Nazis who lied about, stole from, and demonized Jews as something less than human, that required derision and eventually “extermination” like the vermin they were? All in the name of ethnic “purity?”

    How is your attitude toward Mormons any different than the Nazis’ toward Jews?

  61. Will Says:

    24 – LOL … Do you hold Romney responsible for what his Super PAC does?

  62. Will Says:

    35 – Hmmm … That is what they told black people in the 50s and Jews in Nazi Germany. Just shutnup and take it, or you’ll make it worse.

  63. Will Says:

    45 – Mormons have been voting for Catholics and Evangelicals their entire liges. Take your nonsense elswewhere.

  64. Dr J Says:

    I hope Santorum can come to his senses and quash this anti-Mormon movement before Obama can use it to his advantage. So far, he is fueling it with his rhetoric. It is the only issue that is keeping his campaign going.

  65. Dave Says:

    If anyone believes that Mormons are not Christians, or wonders if they are, read “Are Mormons Christians?” It’s by Stephen Robinson, who got his Ph.D. in Biblical Studies at Duke University. He examines the 6 arguments that they are not, and demolishes them one by one. You can get it at Amazon, and it’s available in paper back.

  66. K.G. Says:

    #64: Seriously? Like Huckabee before him, the anti-Mormons are Santorum’s constituency. And anti-religion people are Obama’s constituency, Mormon or otherwise.

  67. aspire Says:

    Gingrich should drop out.

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  69. Arizona Says:

    Even more strange from Ricky today

    “Mitt Romney might drop out. I’m not suggesting for the press, I’m not suggesting he drop out, but if he wants to, I’ll certainly accept his resignation. You know, after you’ve outspent your opponent about fifty to one and you still can’t put the race away, at some point you might want to say, well, you know, maybe I can’t win after all.”

  70. Keith Price Says:

    40

    Santorum will stay in as long as possible to strengthen his “True Christian warrior” following.

    Jerald, Wow, I never thought of it like that. Rick is trying to politically die a Martyr! That explains everything.

  71. Keith Price Says:

    61. Will, I would fully expect Romney to publicly express dismay and disagreement with his own Super PAC if it sent out a letter telling voters why the country will be cursed by God if they vote for a Catholic because the Catholic church is the whore of all the earth.

    If a letter like that went out from Romney’s SPAC and he said nothing to repudiate it, I would absolutely hold Mitt responsible. I would be extremely disappointed in him — to the extent I’d consider withdrawing my support from him.

  72. Keith Price Says:

    69

    You know, after you’ve outspent your opponent about fifty to one and you still can’t put the race away, at some point you might want to say, well, you know, maybe I can’t win after all.”

    Yeah, Arizona, this crap drives me batty. When you talk about they guy who is beating you, soundly, and suggest the guy can’t win, it’s just clueless.

  73. Katechon Says:

    50— thank you Matthew

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