And Romney’s a worse candidate than Kerry was. Nate Silver had a post on this a few years ago. He came up with a number: 44%. With a 44% approval rating, a President is even odds to win re-election. Below that, against average competition, he’s an underdog. Above that, he’s the favorite. Not only is Obama above that, but he’s going to have a below average opponent.
As I recall, since Gallup started polling, only two POTUSes have had a job approval of between 45 and 50 percent on Election Day: Truman and Ford. Truman won by 4, while Ford lost by 2. GWB might — might — have been in that range as well on Election Day of 2004. He won by 3. So Obama is definitely in crapshoot territory.
I actually don’t see the 44% number in that post but I’m swore he wrote it somewhere (and indeed, someone on uselectionatlas- based on a quick google search- seems to recall him saying the same thing). That particular article actually puts the range a little higher for re-election.
“If Mr. Obama’s approval rating is at the top of that range, 50 percent, on Nov. 6, 2012 — about where it is now — the model figures that his chances of winning re-election will be greater than 80 percent. But if his approval rating is at the bottom of the range instead, at 45 percent, his chances for a second term will be only about one in three, and he’ll have to hope that the Republican nominee is a weak one.”
Also guestimating based on the 40% and 45% lines, 12 months before the election that 44% approval is 50-50 chance to get re-elected, but on the election day that approval brings the chances below 30% based on that chart.
One thing I’ve noticed the past 2 years, Obama’s ratings have significantly dropped running up to October and November. They continue in this vein until the SotU address, where his approval numbers get a bounce. Remember how excited the MSM was when Obama got ObL? They exclaimed “Game Over!” Obama could waltz right into another 4 years. That little exercise gave him a 6 point bump to 52% for about a month. Then he was right back down to 48% or lower. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_obama_job_approval-1044.html
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