March 15, 2012

  7:04 pm

These figures are comparisons through the 1145 day of each respective presidency.

You can compare President Obama’s job approval rating to any other President, all the way back to Harry Truman here.



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Well, Bush barely won re-election and Obama's 2 points behind where Bush was. That's a decent sign.


Yea but unfortunately Obama is more likable than bush was.


If approval rating at this is an effective predictor, then we can expect . . . a race too close to predict.

I don't trust approval rating that much. But I think this shows that this is a winnable race.


And Romney's a worse candidate than Kerry was. Nate Silver had a post on this a few years ago. He came up with a number: 44%. With a 44% approval rating, a President is even odds to win re-election. Below that, against average competition, he's an underdog. Above that, he's the favorite. Not only is Obama above that, but he's going to have a below average opponent.


And Romney’s a worse candidate than Kerry was.

Are you nuts?


As for the 44%, is that today, or on election day?


As I recall, since Gallup started polling, only two POTUSes have had a job approval of between 45 and 50 percent on Election Day: Truman and Ford. Truman won by 4, while Ford lost by 2. GWB might --- might --- have been in that range as well on Election Day of 2004. He won by 3. So Obama is definitely in crapshoot territory.


Mass Con,

"As for the 44%, is that today, or on election day?"

I think it's on election day. It's been months since I've looked at the article. Let me go look. Here it is (huh, I guess it was only a year ago).

I actually don't see the 44% number in that post but I'm swore he wrote it somewhere (and indeed, someone on uselectionatlas- based on a quick google search- seems to recall him saying the same thing). That particular article actually puts the range a little higher for re-election.

"If Mr. Obama’s approval rating is at the top of that range, 50 percent, on Nov. 6, 2012 — about where it is now — the model figures that his chances of winning re-election will be greater than 80 percent. But if his approval rating is at the bottom of the range instead, at 45 percent, his chances for a second term will be only about one in three, and he’ll have to hope that the Republican nominee is a weak one."


Romney wonking out now (on Hannity). What he needs to do. Ignore trying to win over intransigent rural conservatives. Just wonk the hell out and drive up your numbers in the suburbs.


Notice the difference in sentence structure and diction between Romney now (when he's being natural) and when he's reciting talking points. Infinitely more impressive in the former.



It's partly because he was in-studio. Whenever he's in-studio, he dominates. Talking into a camera, not so much.



I have to agree with you there. I love Romney, I'm excited about his candidacy, but he is SO MUCH BETTER when he's natural compared to when he's in robot mode.


Mass Con,

Same thing with Pawlenty. I couldn't understand why Pawlenty did so many out of studio interview (instead of in studio) and so many rallies (instead of townhalls).


For all the hype that Romney is disconnected, you get the man with a person one on one or in a group and his personality comes out all over the place.


I think Bush 41 would have won reelection in 1992 if Ross Perot had stayed out of the race.


Bush's RCP approval average on the election day November 2 2004

Approve 49.5

Disapprove 46.8

I don't know if 44% approval for Obama is really 50-50 limit on the election day.

I think I saw some chart that had time axis, approval before election day, and probability to get re-elected so that 44% approval 1x months before the election day is 50-50 chance to get re-elected.

So that was probably "if president has 44% approval year or year and half before the election day, he has 50-50 chance to get re-elected". No way it was 44% approval on election day, 50-50 chances...


Here is that chart which I talked about

Based on that 44% approval on election day, less than 30% chance to get re-elected


Also guestimating based on the 40% and 45% lines, 12 months before the election that 44% approval is 50-50 chance to get re-elected, but on the election day that approval brings the chances below 30% based on that chart.


One thing I've noticed the past 2 years, Obama's ratings have significantly dropped running up to October and November. They continue in this vein until the SotU address, where his approval numbers get a bounce. Remember how excited the MSM was when Obama got ObL? They exclaimed "Game Over!" Obama could waltz right into another 4 years. That little exercise gave him a 6 point bump to 52% for about a month. Then he was right back down to 48% or lower.


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