March 10, 2012

Romney Wins Majority of Wyoming Delegates

  8:58 pm

In another of today’s contests, Gov. Romney won the Wyoming Republican Caucuses, capturing 7 of the 12 delegates at stake.

As you may recall, Romney won a non-binding straw poll of Wyoming’s Republican activists held last month.

14 additional at-large presidential delegates will be selected during the statewide Republican convention in mid-April.



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Great post at WaPo:

"Some are calling New Hampshire a must-win race for Team Romney,” Fox’s Mark Steyn reported in late December. Romney won that must-win.

“I do not like making dramatic statements, but Florida is make it or break it for Mitt Romney,” National Journal’s Charlie Cook said in January. Romney made it.

“Michigan may be Romney’s last stand,” CBS News reported. Romney stood.

ABC News included Arizona in its “make-or-break week” for Romney, who won Arizona handily.

“Ohio could be make or break for Romney,” the Washington Examiner reported after those wins.

“Romney could easily have a really bad Super Tuesday,” Charles Krauthammer opined on Fox News.

Romney won Ohio and had a really good Super Tuesday — but polling stations hadn’t even closed when the media got to work on erecting new hurdles for Romney.

“Graham says Romney must win in South to end primary,” the Hill reported Tuesday afternoon atop its account of an interview with Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.).

“Romney’s Super Tuesday wins ‘maybe not enough,’” the New York Daily News reported Thursday, atop an article quoting McCain’s skepticism.

Indeed. I’m hearing if Romney doesn’t win Tuesday’s primaries in Alabama and Mississippi, he may be toast.

Reginald from texas

We needba FPP to see how many delegates each candidate won this weekend


Agree Reginald, though it seems like Romney keeps pulling in a majority of the delegates week after week. He's a delegate machine. I wouldn't be surprised if Santorum needed to get 70% of the remaining delegates up for grabs after this weekend's results (was 65% before this weekend, and he's fallen of that goal/pace already.)

Reginald from texas

CNN Headline: Santorum wins Kansas but Romney pads lead.

Ozzy(Mitt Romney-Paul Ryan 2012)

I beleive CNN has Romney now at 458 delegates, Santorum at 207, and Newt at 106.


So what happens when there aren't enough delegates remaining for Gingrich and Satan to get 1144 and they are still in the race?

Ozzy(Mitt Romney-Paul Ryan 2012)


Given their egos, they'll try to block Romney from getting 1144. And force this to go to the convention.


Does not really matter what percentage Santorum and Romney must capture going forward given that it is unlikely anyone can get to 1144 before late April and possibly not before the convention. If despite all his advantages Romney can't seal the deal before the convention, there will be no reason to give him the nomination at the convention. Indeed, a new candidate without all the bruising from the primary would be a wiser choice.

Ozzy(Mitt Romney-Paul Ryan 2012)


Or it would be wise for Romney and Santorum to make a deal and join on the ticket and prevent a fight at the convention. A brokered, like Dick Morris says, is a guaranteed path to defeat in November.

Reginald from texas

Romney will have little problem getting to 1,144. I have I did the math last week, and he outperformed my projections this weekend and will probably do so on Tuesday

Firecracker (Romney/West)

Romney just needs to defeat Santorum. NO DEALS!!! Santorum would absolutely toxic on the ticket.


1. Here's my count:

Romney: N. Marianas (9) + Guam (9) + Virgin Isles (7) + WY (7) + KS (7) = 39

Santorum: KS (33) = 33

Ozzy(Mitt Romney-Paul Ryan 2012)


I'm not saying that Romney should do it, but, if the Romnots get their wish and Mitt doesn't reach the 1144, then, to prevent a fight at the convention, he and Santorum could make a deal. But, we haven't crossed that bridge and we can still prevent crossing that bridge as of now.

Firecracker (Romney/West)

9 -- I agree Romney will get to 1144 no problem. He will break the 500 delegate mark on Tuesday with wins in American Samoa, Hawaii, and Mississippi. He will also take a healthy delegate count from Alabama.

Let's also not forget there are 63 outstanding superdelegates that are likely to break heavily for Romney. Romney already got 46, while Grinch only got 4 and Paul and Satan only got 2 each. That's 82% of Super Delegates so far for Romney.

Reginald from texas

Romney will probably widen the gap on Tuesday with victories in Hawaii, Mississippi and American Samoa


And once again Mitt gets the majority of the add to the majority of the existing delegates.....and he has a bunch of WTA states left.

Reginald from texas

Romney probably only needs to get 1,100 or so because the super delegates will go towards him in a heavy way


There is a new Chicago Tribune poll in Illinois. Romney 35 Santorum 31.


Mass Con

What state was that rally in ?


#5 Mittman,

Come on....calling Santorum, Satan. Isn't that a bit over the top? I'm not overly fond of Rick right now myself. He's out there lying about Romney and acting rather desperate to win. But, that's politics and in general I think he's a good man and hardly deserving of the label you've affixed to him.

Conservative Independent

This is the first poll I have seen in Illinois

Romney 35%

Santorum 31%

Gingrich 12%

Paul 7%

Undecided 16%

SOURCE Market Shares Corps poll of 600 registered Illinois Republican voters who voted in previous elections, conducted March 7-9. Margin of error is +/- 4percentage points,0,3667568.graphic

Downstate Illinois is the problem,0,2913399.graphic

Cook County (Chicago) Romney has 39% to Santo 30%

Collar Counties Romney has 39% to Santo 27%

Downstate Romney 27% Santo 35%

Conservative Independent

One thing to keep in mind about Illinois

"Santorum filed only 44 of the possible 54 delegates in Illinois, filing no candidates in the state’s 4th, 5th, 7th, and 13th Congressional Districts."

Ozzy(Mitt Romney-Paul Ryan 2012)


How about calling him Santie Claus? :)


I have Romney getting 463 delegates. Similar to CNN, but they are short 3 delegates in OH, 1 in TN and 1 in GA. They are likely short in WY too, but we have to wait until April to know that for sure.

One thing to keep in mind is when Santorum get to the point where he has to win >100% of remaining delegates to get to 1144, is it not time for him to call it quits? There may be a point where Santorum has absolutely zero chance to get there with not enough delegates remaining, but Romney may not be at 1144 yet but has a clear path to get there. This may be in April some time. Hopefully, he drops out before that time.

glenn for president romney 2012

11 -thanks! That looks about right from what I've read

12 -LOL!

14 -I think that the sooner he breaks 500, the better. It's more of a mental milestone for the party to see. Also, when TRick gets third in both AL, MS and Mitt wins one or both (can't believe I'm saying that with a straight face) and CLEANS HOUSE in Hawaii and American Samoa, I think the writing will be on the wall.

I hate to say this, but after this Tuesday, with a Mitt win in the deep south (I fully expect him to get one now, I'm buying the hype, I'm thinking Mississippi) I think the BIG NAMES get behind him...I'm looking at you Jeb, Marco, Paul Ryan, etc. The narrative from the media will become deafening and the other candidates will have to start explaining why they're staying in when they can't realistically win and AREN'T WINNING IN FAVORABLE STATES WITH UNFAVORABLE STATES TO COME.


Another thing to keep in mind about Illinois.

The state vote means nothing. You do not get

even one delegate for it. All delegates are

awarded by CD so it is actually 18 different



I am in the process of creating a primary and delegate tracking page:

I am up to the Washington Caucuses now. I hope to be all caught up by tomorrow night.


If the Republican Party decides that Santorum and Gingrich have no shot at winning, there will be internal pressure to call it. We are already seeing signs that pressure is starting to rise against them. But a win in MS or AL with wins in Hawaii and American Samoa would definitely push Mitt over 500 and maybe as high as 510. I don't see an avenue for either to win. He leads Santorum by more votes then Santorum has won to date. Lets finally get the party started.



No more ridiculous than Santorum calling romny a liar every 5 minutes. I also think mitt is a very good man with loads of integrity.

Of course you and I's opinions vary on our candidates repective motives if we truly believe what they are saying.

Conservative Independent

#26 I voted early in Illinois. We got to pick the Primary nominee but it means nothing. Next we had to pick out the 3 delegates according to nominee. So, I chose the 3 Romney delegates. Next you pick out 3 alternates according to nominee. The districts were Santorum has no delegates will have his name in the beauty contest but no names for delegates. On the poll I posted there was a large number of undecided voters.

Firecracker (Romney/West)

29 - That sounds so ridiculously complicated. Do you think voters are going to be confused by the voting process in IL?

Firecracker (Romney/West)

The last "nightmare" state for us Rombots will be next Saturday's Missouri Caucus. Newt isn't even on the ballot there, but hopefully, after Santorum gets his clock cleaned on Tuesday, his popularity will dwindle and Romney will do much better there than he did in KS today and in the MO primary last month, especially if he campaigns there.

Conservative Independent

#31 Not really. There were hardly any GOP names on the ballot. This is Illinois so almost all the judge positions were Democratic which meant no names were on the GOP Ballot. Also for some state offices there were no GOP names.



Noot is on the caucus ballot in MO. He wasn't on the primary ballot, but he is on the caucus.

Firecracker (Romney/West)

33 -- Thanks! I was hoping that was the case but I couldn't find any info to know for sure. Bye, bye Santorum. After Missouri, you are FINISHED!!


Do any of you truly believe that Santorum or Gingrich will be allowed to stay I'm this race when they can't mathematicalyy get to 1144?

I think the pressure will be so great at that time and they will look so bad as a spoiler only candidate they wil

l ne forced to drop AMD this thing will never hit convention.

We are not far from that maybe 300 total delafets more for newt and 400 for Santorum.


glenn for president romney 2012

Nice Mitt graciousness in loss in KS while also subtily hinting that he WON the delegate and contest fight this weekend with 4 victories and MORE delegates to TRick's 1:

“I congratulate my fellow candidates who competed in the Kansas caucuses. I am pleased that Kansans joined voters around the country in supporting my candidacy. The road to the Republican nomination has already had twists and turns and no doubt there will be more to come. We should want nothing less when deciding the next occupant of the White House. But I have no doubt that with the progress I’ve made today that I will be the Republican Party’s presidential nominee. I thank all the voters who participated in the Kansas caucuses and look forward to winning Kansas in November.”

Can't wait for a deep southern surprise on's coming! I think Mississippi is going to become my favorite southern state soon!


The survey found Romney slightly ahead of Rick Santorum, 35 percent to 31 percent — within the poll's 4-percentage-point margin of error. Trailing far behind were Newt Gingrich with 12 percent and Texas Rep. Ron Paul with 7 percent. Another 16 percent were undecided.,0,1617767.story



Thanks for the tracker. The 2 Huntsman delegates I believe have been released and are now essentially superdelgates. Huntsman has endorsed Romney but I don't think they have publicly endorsed.

Below was released by the RNC a few days ago and is not updated for the last few days. It only includes pleadged delegates but is supposed to be official per Reince Prieus.

Also, the following is a democratic partisan site but is very useful. They list all super delegates that have publicly announce support for a candidate with links provided for each. There are other superdelegates that have been reported by the media to support a candidate but there is no first hand quote or link, so they don't include them on the list.

Sorry in advance if I'm telling you what you already know. And thank you for being a part of Race42012


Ugly, nasty Santorum telling Kansans: Mitt Romeny is a liar; if he's president he will not tell you the truth.

How about you too, Santy Pants Pinnochio? Who votes for this guy?

When Mitt is the nominee, he needs to stay as far away from Santy Pants and Nutty Newt as possible. They are crazy.



Have you heard anything about any Democratic/union/Kos operation chaos in IL? I understand there is an open primary there. It seems with all the corruption in Chicago and home to the Obama machine, that there would be an organized effort to help Santorum.

glenn for president romney 2012

37 - interesting and slightly disappointing...however, a few consolations

1) there are 16% undecideds

2) TRick doesn't have delegates for each CD

3) Mitt will likely break 500 delegates by that time, and have a larger media narrative of inevitability

4) Mitt will have won a southern state this Tuesday and a bunch of other contests on Tuesday

However, I suspect Mitt won't win Missouri and that won't be good. I'm sure the media will play this up as a big heavy weight fight with punches going back and forth...ugh, so tired of this when it's obvious TRick can't win the nomination and that he and Grinch are just in it as spoilers. NO sense of dignity or putting the party and country'd think at LEAST TRick would know about "taking one for the team." :)


#38 Agreed

I used to think Santy had a future in the party, but he's made himself toxic now.

Now he'll get to join Palin and Gingrich in the FOX NEWS TOXIC WASTE PANTHEON...


do not forget DC, think 19 delegates, where Santorum did not even make it on the ballot at all.


23... I call him santy panties

Ozzy(Mitt Romney-Paul Ryan 2012)


He already was a FoxNews contributor. Both he and Newt were FoxNews contributors before getting in this race.



I'm not surprised at all. A 4-point lead is exactly what I would have expected in IL. Illinois is a midwestern state that plays well into Santorum's appeal. You can't have Santorum win Iowa, win huge in MN, lead big in WI polls, almost win in MI and OH, and not expect him to be within striking distance of Mitt in IL.

However, things are fluid in IL. Mitt has had no ads or anything going on there. History shows that when Mitt campaigns in a state, runs ads, has phone calls going out, and sends mail, he wins. If he's ahead now, it's hard to see how he could lose. Hell, this poll is worthless if Mitt wins AL and/or MS on Tuesday. If that happens, the race is basically over. The race is already ending slowly, if you've noticed all the pundits explaining that it's mathematically nearly impossible for Santorum to pass Mitt in delegates. Beck, Morris, Krauthammer have all said it's time to get behind Mitt.


The good thing is that Missouri caucuses are spread over several days and the most urban counties in Missouri, Jackson County, St. Louis, don't have their caucuses until 24 March, so Missouri caucuses are not finished until after Puerto Rico, Illinois have voted and they finish on the same day that Louisiana votes. So you can't really give Missouri momentum to Santorum before Illinois votes.


This is a good article about Mitt's mission in France from the son of a fellow missionary.


Weird... my post got inserted above everyone else's

SGS (in Boise, Idaho)

CI (23) “Santorum filed only 44 of the possible 54 delegates in Illinois, filing no candidates in the state’s 4th, 5th, 7th, and 13th Congressional Districts.”

Do we know where those districts are?


Romney has been working in IL for a few weeks..... getting absentee vote lead here like in MI, OH and AZ



Those 4 districts are inner Suburb districts of Chicago .

13th is Republican. The other three trend Democratic.


I am not sure why Romney is not attending the candidate forum in Alabama on Monday.... anyone know why?


Great news, seems that since Missouri already has a giant straw poll primary, they are not going to have any good method of giving media the caucus score, there isn't going to be any standard that would even require the name lists returned to party officials to mention whom the candidate has pledged to support 😀

Every other state that has held caucuses this year to select its preference for a presidential nominee has had some type of reporting mechanism to give the public a grasp of who prevailed, even if it's just an informal straw poll.

But the Missouri Republican Party is giving organizers up to three days to turn in the names of delegates who are selected at the 142 local caucuses. And even then, those who submit the names will not necessarily list which candidate the delegates have pledged to support.


"There's not going to be a quote 'winner' at 6 p.m. on March 17," said Lloyd Smith, executive director of the state Republican Party.

Firecracker (Romney/West)

56 -- From what I understand, he never responded as to whether he will attend or not. I will be PISSED at him if he doesn't. He needs to end this race now, and he could jeopardize him standing in AL and MS if he doesn't attend.


Based on these redistricting map, and 2008 Huckabee's results, Illinois 13th is about potentially 3rd most Santorum-friendly district

My Man Mitt 4 President

56, 58, Is Ann OK?


Going back to the start of this thread, what kind of math do you use that puts 7 as a majority out of 26? 12 plus 14 is still 26, right? That's nowhere near a majority to me. Sounds pretty foolish to claim that something just under a third (but over a fourth!) is a majority. Did you type that with a straight face?

In related news, my last paycheck was the majority of U.S. Dollars in circulation. I decided to use your math for my paycheck calculations, since it sounds MUCH nicer that way.


29. That's already begun. The GOP high mucky mucks have told Santorum and Gingrich that the math is just not there, and need to start working their exit strategy. However, when your talking to the two in the entire race with the biggest ego's.... it might be falling on 4 deaf ears.


Thanks-a-mundo for the blog article.Much thanks again. Great.

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