February 25, 2012

Gallup Poll: Obama Should be Worried

  3:12 pm

Gallup has released their state-by-state Presidential approval polling. The results do not look good for the President. If you take the simple analysis that any state with a negative rating will go to the Republican, and any state with a positive rating will go to Obama, November promises to be a bloodbath for the incumbent.

If you just add up electoral votes in that manner, you have the Republican winning 323 to 215.

Here is the projected electoral map courtesy of the Washington Examiner:


Now granted, just going by the February state Presidential approval is a dodgy way to project the November elections. For one thing, we don’t know whom Obama’s opponent will be, and the voters may disapprove of him even more than Barack. For another, the campaign hasn’t been run yet. There is also the factor that plenty of Democrats who disapprove of Obama’s performance will still vote for him in November simply because he IS a Democrat.

Still, the above map hints at the problems facing the President. Practically the whole country is down him. He only has islands of support on the West Coast, the Great Lakes, and the Northeast. Everywhere else is solid red.

Should the Obama people be worried? I think so.

(h/t: Granny T.)




by Oldest
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I wish it were true, but Oregon would be a tough conversion to Republican, hasn't happened for a long time.


Well, the red states are ones where Obama's approval is below his disapproval. But he is still winning head-to-heads in many of those states.

Obama's not popular, but if he's leading, he's leading.


If Romney takes FL and can grab one of OH or PA, then it's game over for Obama.

Rasmussen's poll on PA indicates PA is definitely in play for Romney. Our odds in FL are also very good. Ohio is a little tricky because Kasich and the union fight has created a lot of bad blood.


Given the (probable) long, drawn-out nomination process, whoever is left standing will certainly end up with a map that has a lot less red in it than the graphic shown here.


We're more likely to pick up Pennsylvania than Oregon. The main variables come down to how much longer the Republican fight goes on, and whether Obama can raise that Billion Bucks he spent last year talking about.

Romney can achieve pretty much all of the red here, given an equal number of exogenous breaks.



After Santorum last debate performance I think the nomination will end on Super Tuesday. Gingrich and Santorum are going to split the Southern states.

Not Your Severely Constipated Daddy

That map would be fantastic.


That it is 2011 average approval though. But probably either the gas prices or something with the global or local economy will make things suck, and bring his approval to levels of his 2011 autumn, which were even below approval ratings of 2010 autumn shellacking.



What states on Super Tuesday do you see Romney winning?

I see him winning MA, VT, ID, and then... well... I donno. If his momentum continues, he may win AK and OH, but I see that as unlikely.

Firecracker (Romney/Christie)

9 -- VIRGINIA!!!!!


My hope is...that those democrats simply stay home. Remember there was tons of enthusiasm last time...and the popular vote split 52.9% to 45.7%. If we assume that the enthusiasm drop will make Obama's vote total go down by just 10% because of people either not enthused to go OUT and vote for him like last time....where people last time wanted to be able to say they voted for the first black president...plus the enthusiasm for ending the bush era...., and assuming our candidate does better than mccain....the vote total could be much more favorable than what we see at this time. I don't know...it's probably gonna be close, but we can hope it's a bloodbath and obama loses badly.



Word of caution....it's possible that ron paul will win virginia....just because santorum and gingrich supporters might want to deny romney the win.


When Romney is going to be the Nominee, he WILL get a bump against Obama — for automatically, he'll look incredibly more presidential. Perceptions will change.

And Republicans, even Limbaugh and Levin, will rally around the Romney, and will hardly tolerate ideological criticisms.

Romney 2012 against Obama : at least a 45% chance, imo.


If I were Obama, I'd want overt military conflicts against Iran.

My reelection would assured. For Americans never change their Commander in Chief during an ongoing war.



personally i think romney will still win virginia. I just know it's possible he won't.


It would also *justified* a galloping inflation.


16-- Do you think Romney has a real chance to win the Ohio primary?

After all, Ohio did pick the nominee Everytime Since 1968!



South Carolina used to say basically the same thing. Does anyone here actually believe Newt is going to be nominee?


Alaska is 4.5% LDS, so that should increase chances, but the delegates are fully proportional there compared to caucus vote, so winning it by 35% or losing by 25% makes relatively little difference. Romney led PPP Ohio poll that was done before the Florida victory, in Quinniapiac poll that was done mostly after New Hampshire primary, Romney led by 9 points, so considering Romney basically jumping back to tie with Santorum in Gallup daily tracking, before winning Michigan, Arizona and Washington, I think the momentum, and Santorum self-destructing could make Ohio win possible. In 2008 in Georgia, Huckabee, McCain and Romney were within 4 points of each other all, though this time Gingrich has home field advantage there unlike 2008 opponents, also Romney got around 25% or so both in Tennessee and Oklahoma. Considering that Romney really didn't have momentum from any victories then, Nevada victory was at same day with South Carolina, so it got ignored and Michigan was 3 weeks or so before that, and considering that Gingrich and Santorum are really bad candidates compared to Huckabee and McCain, maybe momentum could be enough to carry some of the southern states also. Anyway Romney is going to probably get around third of southern delegates.

The Delegate math favors Romney for Super Tuesday.

Virginia – 3 delegates per CD won, if one candidate gets over 50% of the statewide vote, all at-large delegates go to him, and since only Romney and Paul are on the ticket, this will most likely be de-facto winner-take-all for Romney – 49 delegates (46 delegates, 3 unbound RNC delegates, would assume going to Romney)

Idaho – 25% LDS, caucus math enables winner-take-all for Romney easily (32 delegates)

Vermont – if Romney gets over 50% as it is likely WTA for him – 17 delegates (14 delegates, 3 unbound RNC, most likely will go to Romney)

Massachusetts – delegates proportionally to everybody getting over 15% of statewide vote, starts to look like that might mean WTA for Romney or over 80% of delegates:

This Suffolk university poll is from 2/11 – 2/15, so from time of Santy’s peak popularity and and his social conservative positions and the way he represents them might costs him some votes in MA. So highly likely that either Romney takes all delegates, or Santy barely manages to get over the 15% and Romney takes over 80% the delegates. So 41 delegates to Romney (38 bound, 3 RNC, can’t see them going to anybody else but Romney)

Romney 64%

Santorum 16%

Paul 7%

Gingrich 6%

Undecided 6%

Refused to answer 1%

Alaska District Conventions: Delegates allocated purely proportionally, significant LDS numbers give Romney slight edge, but because it is pure proportional, I would expect no matter who wins it Romney, Santorum and Paul each getting somewhere between 5 to 9 delegates, so in delegate math, no one is going to win significantly. (24 bound delegates, 3 RNC delegates). Ron Paul might be able to win this caucus I think, but no matter who wins it, Romney, Santorum and Paul are going to get somewhere between 6 and 10 delegates each. 28 delegates total.

North Dakota:

Romney won last time but really but not because of of LDS vote, not many LDS there. But it’s not like the “front runner” candidate does bad here either, on 2008 Super Tuesday, Romney got 8 here, and McCain 5 delegates. The delegates will be allocated proportionally, no separate precinct delegate selection like in IA, CO, MN and ME, so no delegate ninjaing here.

The South:

If the winner doesn’t win congressional district by 50% in Georgia or Oklahoma or by 67% in Tennessee, the CD delegates are split 2 to winner, 1 to second. Also half of the three southern state’s total delegates are divided based on statewide popular vote winners, the minimum required percentages are so low that Santorum, Gingrich and Romney will in all likelyhood pass them in each of the three southern states.

Winning MI, AZ and WA should give Romney enough momentum, and hurt Santorum, enabling Romney to come second in most CDs in Oklahoma and Georgia, maybe even winning some of urban/suburban CDs he won in 2008 in GA, Santorum wins most Oklahoma CDs, Gingrich most Georgia CDs. In Tennessee Romney wins at least 2 CDs, maybe 3, Gingrich might win some, Santorum some.

Actually I did some calculations that if candidate A was to perform solid first all around the South, winning almost all CDs becoming second in few, but without getting those required majority/super majority victories for WTA to hit, and candidate B would be second all around the South, winning some CDs, and then if we had candidate C who doesn’t win CD’s nor become really second either but gets enough popular vote to get on the proportional delegates, the candidate A would receive slightly less than half of southern delegates and candidate B would receive slightly over third of the southern delegates.

Gingrich doing well in Georgia, Santorum doing well in Oklahoma, Romney getting possibly boost from MI, AZ and WA (last Wyoming county caucus straw poll result will be released on Feb 29, but winning that straw poll which is going to based on results this far have less than 2k participants is probably not going to give that much momentum), becoming second most the south, winning some Tennessee CDs possibly some GA, that would give Romney, Santorum and Gingrich each about third of the Southern delegates.

Ohio is really nice price, 3 delegates for each 16 CD’s won, 48 CD delegates total. 15 at-large delegates proportional to those getting over 20% of statewide vote, seems like Romney and Santorum might be only candidates breaking that limit. Santorum isn’t even on the ticket in 3 CDs, so that will be most likely 9 delegates to Romney at least. If Romney manages to take Ohio with momentum from MI, AZ and WA and by exposing Santorum, this can be really nice delegate price for him.

So summary of super tuesday:

4 WTAs for Romney ID,MA,VA,VT – 139 delegates

2 proportional caucuses (AK,ND) – 55 delegates, Romney, Santorum and Paul probably get about equal amount of these delegates, Gingrich might get few also.

3 southern states (GA,TN,OK) – 177 delegates, most likely will be split pretty evenly to Romney, Santorum and Gingrich.

Ohio – 66 delegates, Santorum isn’t even on the ticket in 3 CDs, if Romney manages to take the momentum here from MI, AZ and WA, reveal Santorum as non-pure “true conservative” so that people go for the more electable, this can be quite a delegate boon for Romney.

So with those 4 WTAs, and 2 caucuses and the South splitting the way I suggested, an Ohio sweep with 60 delegates from there would give Romney almost 65% of Super Tuesday delegates, Ohio spanking with winning only 3 of the CDs where Santy isn’t on ticket and some of the proportional delegates would still give over 50% of Super Tuesday delegates to Romney.



Many voters, who are not political junkies and hardcore activists like us, always vote. And when they vote, they always pick who they like best.

If Santorum and Gingrich aren't on the ballot, they will vote Romney. Paul will not receive thousands and thousands of anti-Romney votes. Normal Americans do not behave that way. There's a reason Operation Chaos against Obama failed.


Also many voters outside Virginia don't know that Santorum and Gingrich aren't on Virginia ballot, but Virginia voters will know. This means, even though there will be some Gingrich or Santorum supporters voting for Ron Paul, most of the Virginians probably have common sense reaction: "Well, if you weren't competent and organized enough to get on the ballot, you don't really have any business to the White House."


19-- Aren't the demographics basically the same in Ohio as in Michigan, only slightly more conservative?

Sure, Romney has a home field advantage in Michigan he doesn't have in Ohio, but I have a hard time imagining Santorum riding an organization efficient enough to win the Ohio primary.

Why do you expect Santorum to win Ohio? Because Romney has little money left?



Ohio has never liked Romney. He has had low favorables there all year, even when he was in the driver's seat. Ohio is next door to PA, and it's perfect Santorum country.

And Ohio is a primary, no organization really needed.


26-- Hmmmmm.



I will say, Mitt COULD win Ohio... but it's going to take a BIG collapse by Santorum, back down to something like 15-20% nationally. However, if Mitt does win Ohio, Santorum is done.


Oregon is not going GOP this time around. Best is looking at Cook PVI. We have a shot at all states that are D+2 and above.


The three districts in which Santorum isnt on CD ballot will most likely represent about 15% of the election day turnout. They can still vote him in statewide popular vote, but some people are not willing to vote for candidate who couldnt be organized enough to get on their CD ballot.

Quinniapiac poll that had one pre New Hampshire victory day, 1/9 - 1/16, had Romney leading by 9 points. The PPP taken on the weekend BEFORE the Florida primary, they had Romney and Gingrich basically tied. So it depends on momentum, and whether people come to the right conclusion in those districts that him not being on the CD ballot means that he is not worthy.


21 Romney is going to get blown out in:

3/3 Washington

3/6 Ohio

3/6 Alaska

3/6 Georgia

3/6 north dakota

3/6 Oklahoma

3/6 Tennessee

3/6 wyoming

at which point you will say... well they don't matter of some such nonsense.


and the rest of the month just gets worse for Romney. Because he will also get blown out in :

3/10 kansas

3/13 Alabama

3/13 Mississippi

3/17 Missouri

3/20 Illinois

3/24 Louisiana

March is going to be a bloodbath for Romney


and those are just the sure fire loses for Romney. There are a bunch of little contests that have never been polled that no one has a clue who might win


3/10 guam

3/10 northern marianas islands

3/10 virgin islands

3/13 American Samoa

3/18 Puerto Rico

have a combined 70 delegates, that's more than Virgina


Pipe dream! Obama is trading at 60% for a reason.


A little realism here, if I may.

Of the eleven states holding their primaries or caucuses on Super Tuesday, we have available to us corroborated multiple polling for exactly three of them, Georgia, Ohio and Oklahoma. In Georgia Gingrich leads with Santorum a strong second and Romney a weak third. In Ohio Santorum leads with Romney a strong second. In Oklahoma Santorum leads with Romney in second.

We have precisely ZILCH corroborated multiple polling for any of the other contests, I mean ANY of them.

So anyone's guess is as good as any other's. And here's mine, as good or bad as anyone's, but fun.

For what it's worth, I think we'll come out of Super Tuesday with a bit of a muddle.

I expect Paul to exceed expectations in some of the smaller lower-turnout caucuses like Alaska, Idaho and the Virgin Islands.

I expect Gingrich to win in Georgia and Tennessee.

I expect Santorum to duplicate his prairie victories in Minnesota, Iowa, Missouri and Colorado by winning North Dakota, and he will also probably squeak out an Oklahoma victory.

I expect Romney to romp in Massachusetts, Vermont and Virginia.

Right now, I'd give the edge to Santorum in Ohio, with Romney close on his heels and Gingrich a weak third.

Since most of these, I believe, are proportional rather than winner-take-all, I expect all the candidates to come out of these with some bragging rights.

As far as contest victories are concerned, I expect the victory lineup will be something like this after Super Tuesday:

Iowa: Santorum

New Hampshire: Romney

South Carolina: Gingrich

Florida: Romney

Nevada: Romney

Colorado: Santorum

Minnesota: Santorum

Missouri: Santorum

Maine: Romney

Arizona: Romney

Michigan: Romney

Washington: Paul

Alaska: Paul

Idaho: Paul

Virgin Islands: Paul

Georgia: Gingrich

Tennessee: Gingrich

North Dakota: Santorum

Ohio: Santorum

Oklahoma: Santorum

Massachusetts: Romney

Vermont: Romney

Virginia: Romney

Which works out to Santorum with a total of seven victories, Romney with nine victories, Gingrich with three victories and Paul with four victories.

That, and 10 cents, will get you to the bank.

In other words, a maintaining election. Romney maintains a thin edge, Santorum succeeds in keeping it basically a two-man race, Gingrich stays in the game with his two Southern victories added to his South Carolina victory, and Paul proves that he be the man in low-turnout low-interest elections where his very enthusiastic voters can overwhelm the competition.

All of the above is pure fantasy, of course. The good news is that anyone can indulge; and you won't gain weight.


I think you guys overestimate Santorum's chances to win Ohio — since Romney will crush him this Tuesday in both Arizona and Michigan.

Folks are just beginning to grasp how "fake" Santorum is…



Romney is going to win Illinois. I don't know how you believe otherwise.


#36 I actually agree with most of your calls except I don't think Paul will win anything



Romney is actually winning Wyoming right now, 41% to 31%. 5 more precinct caucuses are yet to be held, and Romney will win those.

He has a decent shot in Ohio and Washington.


#39 because Romney polled about 10% there when it was last polled, and Santorum is strong in that region


#41 yeah, wyoming shouldn't have been on that list, that was a mistake.


Santorum will look like a loser, since expectations have been set quite high.

Let's hope Romney will give an inspiring victory speech for once!


Santorum is already losing Wyoming caucuses, both delegates and straw poll


Romney leads by 10 points, and of the counties left, based on population and denominations, Romney is almost guaranteed to increased his lead

When it comes to delegates this year, which counties get to choose the 12 delegates that are chosen by this process others get to choose alternate delegates, this far based on results, how big turnout, how big margin of victory 5 pretty sure Romney delegates, 2 pretty sure Paul delegates, not that sure of Santorum delegates.


That's an interesting poll. Oregon almost always goes democrat. People love Obama here generally, but there has been major dissatisfaction because we have almost 1 out 4 people out of work. the IT bust hit this state hard and we've never really recovered. Oregon is almost split ideologically. The metro area around Portland tends to be democrat and the outlying areas are smaller communities and tend to go republican.


Katechon the only way Romney wins Ohio is if Santorum completely and utterly melts down, because Ohio will be one of Santorums strongest states. Now having said that ... the Gallup daily poll does show Santorum fading... if that turns into a full on meltdown, then I guess there is an outside chance of him losing Ohio.. but honestly that would be like Gingrich losing Georgia.


Watch Gallup the next week....if Romney moves to near 40 or over and Santy Panties drops below 25

Ohio and Tennessee will move into Romney column.


#47 you are predicting Santorum will be out of the race before 3/20 ?



40, Killjoy. I stand by my prediction that Paul will do better than expected in some of those smaller contests. That said, I'm prepared to concede that they may be moral victories, because of expectations, rather than actual victories.

So who do you think will win those four states instead of Paul? Santorum? Romney?


#49 no way Romney wins Tenn. that's either Gingrich or Santorum. Romney polls in the low teens in Tenn.


this islands? I don't have a clue. Romney might have some advantages on some of them because of his financial ties there.


#32 Killjoy: I don't know how you think Mitt is going to lose Illinois. In IL, we have a "loophole" primary, where people vote on one part of the ballot for the presidential candidate, but that's just a "beauty contest" that doesn't count towards delegates. The other part of the ballot, we vote directly on delegates pledged to particular candidates.

In my Congressional district, which elects 2 delegates, there are 2 delegate candidates for Mitt, 2 for Newt, and 2 for Ron. That's it. Rick didn't qualify any delegate candidates in my district. No Rick delegates are going to Tampa this summer from my district.

In other districts in IL, Rick did qualify delegate candidates, but usually not the maximum. For example, in the 17th district, which elects 3 delegates, Mitt qualified 3 candidates, and so did Newt and Ron. Rick only qualified one. So even if 100% of the voters in that district prefer Rick, he's only going to get one of the three delegates from there. I don't know if there are any districts in IL where Rick has the maximum number of candidates for delegate, but Mitt, Newt, and Ron all have full slates as far as I know.


That is almost a very best case scenario for Rs...maybe maybe throw WI on there too, but even then only a 62 EV cushion. Doesn't seem too hard to start peeling off the ORs NMs COs PAs and OHs and that gets back down to about 270 pdq. It's gonna be a long, tough battle.


#55 I just read the green papers on Illinois and it is really weird indeed. It appears that none of the delegates are actually bound, but of course they would most likely support the candidate they ran under, but some apparently run uncommitted and thus would probably be inclined to vote for the winner of the beauty contest. Then it looks like another 12 are chosen at large by the Republican Party State Convention. Well, it sure confuses the delegate math for the state, thus I will limit my prediction in Illinois to Santorum winning the beauty contest.


In 2010, Illinois Republicans nominated Mark Kirk as their senatorial nominee, his American Conservative Union lifetime rating was 58, but he still got almost as high percentage of the vote as his ACU rating, 56.6%, the closest competitors staid below 20%.

Mike Castle's ACU rating wasn't that much worse, 51.69, but they still didn't feel a need to nominate a Christine O'Donnell. Illinois Republican really like to win, which means that Santy loses, badly.


Looks like Tennessee is Santorum territory. Take a look at the Vanderbilt survey at http://www.vanderbilt.edu/csdi/2012poll.php just released as well as the ARG survey at http://americanresearchgroup.com/pres2012/primary/rep/tn/ . The results of the two surveys are roughly similar, reinforcing the likelihood that both are correct. If Santorum is indeed leading in Tennessee, and holds that lead for Super Tuesday, then Gingrich may well end up winning only his home state of Georgia on that critical day. Might we actually see one of these candidates drop out finally?


Looks like Tennessee is Santorum territory. Take a look at the Vanderbilt survey at http://www.vanderbilt.edu/csdi/2012poll.php just released as well as the latest ARG survey. The results of the two surveys are roughly similar, reinforcing the likelihood that both are correct. If Santorum is indeed leading in Tennessee, and holds that lead for Super Tuesday, then Gingrich may well end up winning only his home state of Georgia on that critical day. Might we actually see one of these candidates drop out finally?


what would be interesting would be if gingrich and santorum split the conservative vote enough for romney to eek out a win in a once again threeway race in the state. it could happen if romney gets a little more support, which is likely looking at current trend and his likely wins tuesday.

Wishful thinking

That's the funniest thing i've seen in a long time - Obama has problems but not this much. You're basing your arguments in a vacuum. Yes Obama's disapproval numbers are high, but have you seen the numbers for those GOP jokes you call candidates? The true believers who vote in primaries don't decide elections in 2012 - independent voters do, and they hate your guys more than they dislike Obama. In head-to-head matchups Obama is ahead in Oregon, Virginia, Nevada, Ohio, & Pennsylvania, and running close in Florida, Colorado & North Carolina. There are all sorts of ways for him to win with combinations from those states, while Romney has to run the table to win (because he starts out with the huge demographic disadvantage of automatically losing the high-population states on the east and west coast).

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