February 22, 2012

From Game On to Game Over?

  1:27 am

Richard Murdock tweets about the GOP Race a reminder of the high stakes in Michigan for Mitt Romney:

From distance, Santorum doing great. Values really do count in America, and not sneered at as in parts of Europe. Win Michigan game over.

Of course, Santorum’s first declaration on Iowa Caucus night was, “Game on!” But will losing Michigan mean game over for the Romney campaign?

From a technical stance, no. Romney may be burning through money at an unsustainable rate and may be running out of rich people he can tap at $2500 a pop but Romney has his millions he can spend, but will he? 2008 suggests that the Romney family is not likely to spend hard-earned millions on a campaign to nowhere.

In theory, Romney could lose on Tuesday, get shellacked everywhere the whole month of March and then start winning big winner-take-all liberal states like New York to close the gaps. Certainly, no one will leave the month of March with the majority o f delegates.

But as Democrats (who have been using proportional delegates) for far longer than we have have shown, that’s not the point. John Kerry and Al Gore’s nomination was assured by the withdrawal of all serious opposition long before they amassed the required delegates. Even when you’re a long way from collecting the necessary delegates, there reaches a point when realists read the writing on the wall and accept the truth of the old proverb. “When you reach the last page, close the book.”  Michigan is must win for Romney. He’ll sputter into Super Tuesday and lose 6-7 of 10 States (note: Wyoming starts it caucuses on that day, but there’s no straw vote,  so no way to determine who “won” Wyoming.)

While some polls indicate Romney picking up ground in Michigan in recent days, he’s also been losing ground in Arizona.  This points to a bigger problem for Romney. As more and more conservatives have been moving towards Santorum with Gallup showing a 10-point lead the last couple of days confirming early national polls from Rasmussen and PPP that showed a double digit lead for Santorum, the default opinion of many conservatives have been not for Romney. The position a frontrunner should be in is that he is the default leader and that all other candidates must march upwards to catch him. Instead, Romney finds himself playing catch up. Can he spend the time and money needed to gain in Michigan without losing Arizona. Arizona and Michigan, like Nevada, Florida, and New Hampshire are states that Romney has heavily invested himself in for the past five years, both in time and money.  Starting on March 3rd in Washington, Romney will (with the exception of Massachusetts) be on virgin soil where his investment in time and money has been minimal.

If he wins Michigan (without losing Arizona), he’ll have some momentum to grab more than his expected wins in Vermont, Massachusetts, and Virginia and be able to compete long term with a chance to rap things up in April.  If he loses Michigan or wins Michigan but loses Arizona in the process, it will be game over whether Romney realizes it or not.



by Oldest
by Best by Newest by Oldest

Agree completely with this article


This is all a lot of wishful thinking on your part, Adam. It's time to start thinking about what you'll say if/when Romney walks away with both those states on Tuesday. (And Killjoy is just a troll, his support doesn't count.)


If Romney wins both by a lot... he has taken a big step towards securing the nomination. If he wins them both in a squeaker.. he is in trouble, if he loose one of the two it's the beginning of the end, and if he looses both it is the end.


did I cover all the possibilities GNV?


Actually the wyoming caucus has already started. We start with the precinct caucus(mine is thursday night) which is for each county. Some counties have already had their precinct caucuses. Then they will have a county convention right before the state convention. At each level, delegates are picked. At the lowest level(precinct caucus)....delegates aren't actually picked...but they are chosen as "candidates" to become delegates. The counties actually alternate who gets a delegate, and who gets the alternate. Then there are about 13 pre-selected delegates(like the governor). It's a weird setup...but basically a little over half of the delegates will be picked based on caucus results(assuming that people that voted for a candidate, will also vote for that candidates delegates). The ron paul people here are pretty well organized. But i haven't heard anything yet on counties outside of my own(natrona/casper). I expect that ron paul will probably come away with about 3 or 4 delegates.....romney and santorum will split the rest. I haven't heard much about gingrich. Really there is the ron paul people...the romney people...and the anti-romney people. Santorum could get the most delegates...but i'm assuming most of the pre-selected delegates are already pledged to romney.


It's a week away. Debate tomorrow, Romney's big economic speech in Detroit on Thursday. Lots can happen in a week. Lots of folks are STILL undecided in MI and AZ. Neither Santorum nor Romney seems to have big momentum in either state right now. Incremental movement, tight races. The outcomes in AZ and MI will certainly factor into the momentum headed into Super Tuesday. I'd say Paul, Santorum and Romney all have a path forward at this point - nobody needs to get out right away. Gingrich seems the least likely to turn things around and get resurrected again, as AZ will not be a huge natural audience for him, but if he blows away the debate then things might turn for him a bit. My guess is the debate will be kind of a draw - hope we don't get too much into the stupid issues.


#6 As a Santorum supporter I am hoping and praying that CNN lives up to it's reputation and asks Santorum something about Satan or heck ANYTHING about his faith (or Obama's) especially if it is asked in a mocking tone, or is meant to try and "get" him. Because if that happens... ROFL Santorum will win the debate and the nomination at the same time.


Nope, there's no conflict of interest when the creator of Fox News is openly rooting for a particular candidate.

It's also rich when a billionaire who's on his third wife (who happens to be half his age) lectures us about the importance of "values."


In fact, if social issues are even brought up Santorum will win.


All bunk. Everyone says game over if Romney loses Michigan. They split delegates and the game continues.


#10 on paper yes, but in terms of the media narrative and maybe even more importantly in terms of fundraising... it would be nearly catastrophic for Mitt


This is the biggest COS I've ever heard that if Romney loses Michigan it's game over.

It just means he goes from having a 95% chance of winning to a 90% chance.

And after he wins Arizona he STILL wins the most delegates on the day!


Some good observations here. Romney has to spend heavily anywhere he wants to win.

Without the millions raised from big finance (not a smear, just a statement of fact - http://www.opensecrets.org/pres12/contrib.php?id=N00000286 ), Romney would not stand a chance in this race.

In a way these contests are a test of the influence of money and advertising (to elect Romney) vs the natural will of the base (to elect someone else).



If you are so confident that it's over for Romney he if loses Michigan then name your bet and I will take you on! $1000 for starters? $1000 says Mittens still wins if he loses Michigan.

No way we are going to nominate some Satan obsessed freak.


Romney will be declared dead whether he loses on, wins both or loses both, by whatrver margin. Killjoy, you are rooting for the Chris Mathews Daily Kos gop candidate, if you are that effing blind yes we will have 4 more years of Obama. And Rupert Murdock, Rush, and Pallin will make millions more off of Obama hate. Our spending will increase and we will become Greece in the meantime and the anti Romneys and the talk radio media will disown any responsibility for killing the best chance at winning this election. If Santorum gets the nomination I garantee he loses FL. We'd have a better chance with Newt than anal Santorum.


#14 ok... so now if you believe in Satan (like all Christians) you are a freak? but if you believe that God is a married space alien from planet Kolob which the earth used to orbit before it was placed into it's current location... your perfectly normal? just trying to get this straight


16. I believe in Satan, I just don't believe he's actively attacking the United States. I also believe our presidential nominee shouldn't say such idiot things when we're trying to wrestle the White House from an incredibly well funded and organized democratic party.

Also Santorum can knock off the attacks on Protestants. The Catholic church has no ground to critique our faith.

"We look at the shape of mainline Protestantism in this country and it is in shambles, it is gone from the world of Christianity as I see it." -Santorum


um.. Santorum was addressing a church at an event years ago. So if someone can find video of Romney in a Mormon temple talking about God or something ... because... it's a church that would disqualify him too?


Meh. Romney won in the Rasmussen AZ poll by 8 points despite it's severely "very conservative" sample, 42% compared to 2008 exit poll 30%, because they actually, based on religious cross tabs, in evangelical/protestant/catholic/other classification had a reasonable 11-13% Mormon sample. In other poll's cross tabs you really couldn't say much about the religious composition.

So the smaller sample CNN and PPP polls are more likely to be severely wrong, Rasmussen's and We Ask America's 8-10 point lead is more likely.


heck ... I help teach sunday school at my church ... I hope no one ever tapes what I say and uses it against me years later if I run for office *gasp* I might say something controversial in sunday school ... like talk about Satan or something *shiver*


18. Oh geez you miss the point completely. Nobody cares about Santorum being a Catholic, or Romney being a Mormon. We care that this sort of rhetoric has no place in a presidential election.

We need to run on the economy as a party, and Santorums past is stopping us from doing so.

Nobody wants to debate theology!


#21 that tape is from Santorum talking at a church years ago



As far is I know, mainline protestants being gone from the world of Christianity anymore than any other non-Catholic Christianity, evangelicals, etc., isn't central part of Catholic doctrine.


anyway, I should be thanking you Andrew and everyone else who has made this an issue all week, thus virtually guaranteeing that it will be brought up in tonights debate, and thus ensuring that tonights debate will be the "social issues" debate and will thus ensure Santorum an easy victory. I have listened to Santorum very carefully the entire week when he has been asked about these issues and each and every time he hit his answer out of the park, and I am literally begging CNN to ask him about this or any other issue related to it. Pretty please.


22. I read the comments were made to students at Ave Maria University in Florida. It may have been during a service, I have no idea.

And what kind of church service talks about politics anyway?

Regardless, it doesn't matter. The point is this is a distraction, the media will use this, this is not an appropriate rhetoric to be used ANYWHERE.


Romney has broad support and deep financial resources. The ill-considered attacks on Bain Capital by Gingrich and Perry hurt both of them and drew new recruits to Romney. That's when I went to Mitt. Perry and Gingrich showed neither had principles. Santorum survived because he didn't join that attack. But the revelations about his feelings about Protestants and his incredibly naive and simplistic rant about Satan should have eliminated him for those paying attention. As for the Kolob metaphor? Well, most Christians think of Satan as a metaphor; Santorum sees satan as reall and somehow has only targeted the US over the past 200 years. And that must mean Hitler, Stalin, Mao, etc. were not evil (because evil is Satan's alone and he was in US). Then it comes out that Santorum was pro-abortion before 1995 but he has attacked Romney for not being anti-abortion enough (despite fact as a Mormon elder Romney was strongly advising young women against abortion and as MA Governor vetoed pro-abortion bills). Ron Paul has proven himself a formidable candidate and I expect to see some of his ideas put in practice. Will he become head of Fed or given task to replace it? Could be. Some say VP material but he might be too old for that, and he'd rather fix something.


20 (and all the other lame posts)

Your disdain for Mormonism is readily apparent. No one raising an eyebrow here about Santorum's Satan comment is saying doctrines in any faith are untrue or outlandish, as you're implying. What gets us nervous about Santorum is how motor-mouthed and unabashed he is about bringing religion and Sunday school talk into his stump speech about government. He will be an unparalleled gaffe-making machine at the rate he is going, and today he said he will defend everything he says. It plays well with evangelicals and some extreme Catholics, but not with anybody else. That means he is a loser candidate, and Obama takes us off the edge of the cliff.

I guess, in short, he needs to keep that rhetoric where it belongs: at CHURCH.


#27 what you see as a mistake, I see as brilliance. Time will tell who was correct.

Thunder (Romney the next presiden of the US)

Killjoy Says:

February 22nd, 2012 at 2:41 am

um.. Santorum was addressing a church at an event years ago. So if someone can find video of Romney in a Mormon temple talking about God or something … because… it’s a church that would disqualify him too?


First, we don't video tape things in the Temple.

Second, you don't have speakers in the Temple.

Third, at Ward Buildings, where people speak, they do not attack other religions, they do not speak of the Devil, we are Christ centered church, and we talk about following the teachings of Jesus and being positive.


28. Oh gee, I dont need to crack out the old crystal ball for this one. Santorum will lose.


I honestly don't know what goes on inside a Mormon Temple, but surely they must talk about God, Satan, the Holy Ghost, Genesis, The book of revalation, and all sorts of other things that if shown out of context of the church in which they were being discussed would seem ... a little odd to many.


Guys you are amazing. You make this election a mockery. The LDS church,that is their name is a Christian church. In their articles of faith they declare Jesus Christ as their saviour and acknowledges that he died on the cross for them. What is wrong with you guys. If the Catholic church, by the mouth of the joker Santorum declares that Christianity is reserved for Catholics then their is no hope for the USA. Stop this nonsense and choose the best candidate or Obama will become your worse nightmare.


In this topsy turvy race, I would not say it is over for Mr. Romney if he loses either Michigan or Arizona, but let's say things will start to get challenging for him because if he cannot even win those states and Washington, where is he going to win? MA and Utah are not enough.


"Stop this nonsense and choose the best candidate or Obama will become your worse nightmare." Bingo, Mr. Romney is not the best candidate.

Thunder (Romney the next presiden of the US)

Killjoy Says:

February 22nd, 2012 at 3:06 am

I honestly don’t know what goes on inside a Mormon Temple, but surely they must talk about God, Satan, the Holy Ghost, Genesis, The book of revalation, and all sorts of other things that if shown out of context of the church in which they were being discussed would seem … a little odd to many.


No... It is a place where sacred ordinances are performed similar to those that Christ performed on his apostles.


Don't you think after all the certainty about Romney winning all 50 states after NH, it seems a little ridiculous to talk in such certain ways, like:

"If he loses Michigan or wins Michigan but loses Arizona in the process, it will be game over whether Romney realizes it or not."

Hasn't it been established that everything is just not as predictable as thought?

Thunder (Romney the next presiden of the US)


February 22nd, 2012 at 4:10 am

“Stop this nonsense and choose the best candidate or Obama will become your worse nightmare.” Bingo, Mr. Romney is not the best candidate.


It isn't Santorum who thinks that Satan has taken over all the churches except for the Catholic Church.

It isn't Newt..

It isn't Ron Paul

That leaves Romney.


35. "but surely they must talk about God, Satan, the Holy Ghost, Genesis..."

You said no to this?

Thunder (Romney the next presiden of the US)

Brett Says:

February 22nd, 2012 at 4:13 am

35. “but surely they must talk about God, Satan, the Holy Ghost, Genesis…”

You said no to this?


Suggest you read here..


In the temple we are taught, we make covenants, and we are promised blessings. We receive ordinances that enable us to live in the presence of God.


There are no speakers like you would find in a normal chapel.


Yes Killjoy I think it is freaky to believe in Satan. I didn't even really know he was a religious figure but then again I live in a part of the world which isn't obssessed by religion as you guys are (no offence).

If you want the truth I think Mormons believe in some freaky shit as well. But Mitt keeps that to himself. Each to their own - but with Santorum it will be front and centre in the campaign. Forgive me for thinking that we have a better chance if we focus on the economy!


Where is Mitt going to win?

How about New York and California which are basically winner take all?! That is obviously just for starters.


Did you see the pictures of how many people came out to support RON PAUL this entire week at the different stops around the country?! I cry with joy to see that Americans can see through these media moguls that spread their lies to our televisions....Liberty, Love of Country, and Freedom are no match for however many trillions "The Elite" may want to spend to supress it!! This is a fire no media can put out!!! The people pouring into the streets are proof that America is collectively giving the middle finger to "The Fed & it's cohorts" !!

Not to mention the mainstream media and all the corrupted politicians are in bed with Wall Street thugs! Meanwhile our true Countrymen...also known as: Army, Navy, Marines, Airforce, & National Guard....are getting their legs blown off & losing their lives, so the corrupt can have a bigger bank account. My friends and neighbors here in Praire Grove, AR say.....RON PAUL OR NOTHING AT ALL!!!!!!!!



I find it interesting that the ABRs are always singing Romney's demise.

How many times have we heard "Romney is doomed".

Romney must have more lives than a cat.

The actual situation is that Gingrich looks to be down for the count. The ABRs are keeping him on life support just in case Santorum tanks.

Santorum is the ABRs' LAST PICK.

He is just now getting vetted.

And the media is finally covering him, which isn't always so good because he is showing everybody daily that he can't win the general election.

And you are worried about Mitt's burn rate?

Did you look at Santorum's cash box? If you count his debt, the guy is basically out of cash.

Michigan and Arizona are also important for Santorum.

If he looses those two, it will hurt him big time.

What this all means is that it's a close race. Right now Santorum is a house built on the sand.

We'll see what's left after the winds and the rains come...


If Romney loses MI and AR, then its almost inevitable that we go to a brokered convention. The months of in-fighting would play out perfectly for Obama's reelection.

The really sad part of this whole process is that it proves just how much of a stranglehold the evangelicals and right-wing nuts have on our nomination process.

Unless Romney pulls out MI AND AR, we might as well hand the election over to Obama.


Adam, It is Rupert Murdoch, not Richard Murdock.


Arizona = AZ

Arkansas = AR


Thanks for the cheery news Teemu 😀

Willard Crapweasel Mittens Rombot

I'm looking forward to the debate. I'm looking forward to learning more about Satan's plan for America. I'd also be curious to know Santermarks opinions on UFOs and Sasquatch.


45 good news


Adam, your closing comment that if Romney loses Michigan "it will be game over whether Romney realizes it or not" ignores the fact that the only other viable candidates are Santorum and Gingrich. No short-term setbacks suffered by Romney should compel him to drop out, because the more Santorum is in the spotlight, the less viable he will become. The ABR crowd (along with Fox and the MSM) have consistently placed much higher expectations on Romney than on the other candidates, and discounted any success that he has had. Just because Romney "is supposed to be the frontrunner" doesn't mean that failure to meet others' expectations is reason to exit from the race. It is a bit ridiculous that it is okay for Gingrich and Santorum to completely ignore numerous states, but nearly everything is "must win" for Romney. Given the current field, he should take the long view and continue to systematically collect delegates. Your contention that "it will be game over" also ignores the fact that momentum has been fleeting throughout this campaign. All this being said, I fully expect Romney to win both Michigan and Arizona.


Murdoch thinks he calls the shots. I'm ashamed of his behavior. He is a conservative media troll and attracts like kind.


Is Adam Graham a santorum backer???


There is literally no chance that Romney loses Arizona. More likely he wins by over 10%. Heath's $4000 is safe for the easiest $1,000 ever made in his life.

Only in a crazy world can you win one (winner take all) state by 10%, then lose a proportionate state by 1%, and be not only deemed a loser (?) but also that your campaign is terminal!? Wtf!

Sounds like Romney is going to win both anyway so sucks to be you all you anti-Romneys.


53 - yes - he likes backing losers! He backed Huck in 2008 who also stayed in for months just so he could claim he came second and get a tv show.


Game over for Romney = Game over for the GOP

Thunder (Romney/Rubio 2012)

Shouldn't it be game over if Santorum loses his birth state, Virginia.... Oh that's right, he isn't even on the ballot.


I love these St. Rick defenders who say the media is smearing him now, because of the things he said years ago.

The fact is he did indeed say these things, they were or are not being taken out of context.

This IS the real Rick Santorum. It's fine he has these beliefs, but don't try to portray him as a victim because they are coming to light.

If CNN brings up these issues that is a lot more legit than trotting out the ex-wife of Gingrich.

Rick as a L O N G history saying things like this and I am sure there is more to come.

So instead of attacking the media for discussing these issues, Rick better be ready to explain his statements without anger or indignation for them being raised, as they are disconcerting to many Americans.

He won't get a victimized Gingrich moment on this.

As for Murdoch's tweet - If the BIAS against is obvious to all now, it will never be. Blinded by your faith you are on the road to paring the GOP to the God Only Party.


My last line should read:

As for Murdoch’s tweet – If the BIAS against Romney isn't obvious to all now, it will never be.

Blinded by your faith you are on the road to paring down the GOP to the God Only Party.



Nice. I like it. FNC has had it in for Mitt since this started. Their coverage and their people's extended reach (see Hannity on radio) is sickly biased towards ABR.

I can't wait for Mitt to knock it out of the park tonight and the rest of the week with his bold tax plan and then take momentum back with some convincing victories on the 28th.

He will beat Obama and turn this around. He has done it before, he'll do it again.


This could be the most ridiculous thing I've ever read on this site. Satan must have written it.


It seems that all the folks on cable news, and many of the people online, are behind the curve.

Last night, Palin, O'Reilly, and Hannity were all talking about how doomed Mitt is.

Have they seen the recent polls?

Or more importantly, have they heard that Mitt is coming out with a new, bold tax plan at the debate tonight? If they haven't they are in for a surprise.


I trust Marist polls so I think Romney will win AZ big and narrowly win MI.

But, as Adam points out, the game will not be over. Rick and Newt will move on

and it seems the first chance to end this contest will be on Super Tuesday.


Marist has Romney up 2 in Michigan.

Now here is an example of Media Bias/Negative Spin for the slow learners on this site (Killjoy....Killjoy! Put down the comic book and pay attention.)

Why is it when Rick moves ahead of Romney, even by a point, it is reported he is "now leading Romney" and yet when Romney is up by 2, the news is spun as "Romney is in a statistical tie with Santorum"?

Talk about stepping on the gas while pulling on the emergency brake.


So, now for Arizona, considering the Rasmussen sample eventhough it obviously got it's religious distribution better than smaller sample PPP or CNN, it was still severely "very conservative", by more realistic ideology turnout, 8 point lead rises to 10 point lead, We Ask America had Romney's lead at 10 points, NBC/Marist has him at 16 point lead. So Romney's Arizona lead is somewhere in 10-16 point range.

Now we also have the three latest Michigan polls showing Romney leading by 2 points, once you adjust the Rasmussen poll having 16 point higher "very conservative" turnout than in 2008.

So Romney losing both extremely unlikely, and Romney will win Michigan unless there is significant party pooper turnout. Though Obama's numbers temporarily good numbers will hopefully tone that kind of turnout down, and I'm hopeful that Santorum's exclusive and judgmental version of social conservatism will turn the independent and Democratic vote against him, I think the fear of Santorum somehow managing to make it in general election will be stronger emotion than the party pooping related emotions.


One of the dumber posts I have read in awhile. So heads I win, tails you lose logic again.

If your circular lfiring squad logic were to hold up that means when Mitt wins Mi and Az all other candidates must get out, because it's over whether they know it or not. By the very reasoning you lay out why are Gingrich and Santo even in the race?

Answer me that one wizard.

As the race has shown so far, predictions posts like this one are highly nonpredictive.

If you put Santo's name in this post where Romney's is you'd be closer to reality.

Reading this post tells me you've been marinating your brain in the Fox/Talk radio juices and ended up with a lot of crap.

Back to the drawing board son, you get a D on this one.


I think if Mitt wins AZ and MI it goes a long way to ending this on Super Tuesday for him.

I think the media is building this up as such "Do or Die" for ROmney in MI if he wins, that will be the momentum spark he needs.

People are getting tired of the back and forth and if he can turn back Santy in MI, I think that breaks the log jam.


#62 the debate tonight will be none stop gotcha questions to Santorum about religion, satan, statements he or someone else made about Obama being a Christian, ect. In other words the debate tonight will be solely a social issues debate ... which = Santorum win, Romney loss


Rick is not as sharp in deflecting the gotcha questions as a Gigrich is. If he is peppered with questions, watch him get caught up in his beliefs while trying to appear mainstream and tolerant.

Becareful what you wish for.



Well, there is some truth to that. As I predicted, CNN will ask whether Obama is a Muslim and they will ask whether Satan is targeting America.

But the opportunity is there for Romney to score MAJOR, MAJOR points on his tax plan. If Santorum fails to have a breakout moment of righteous indignance, Mitt's plan will be the talk of the night and the coming months.

Tennessean for Mitt

Tonight Mitt needs to say : "If I lose my home state of Michigan I will get out if we all agree that: Everyone who loses the state they were born in get oust and if everyone who loses the state the live in gets out. Then I guess Ron Paul is the nominee".


#69 you must have not seen ANY interviews this week with Santorum. Because basically the whole week he was asked gotcha questions about this stuff and each and every time I was jumping out of my seat yelling YES!!!! to his answers... And I am not even a big Santorum fan.


any and all gotcha questions about religion will be hit out of the park both by Santorum and Gingrich as a continued attack on Christianity, and this will be linked to Obama and hung around the presses head and the moderator in particular. Meanwhile Romney will be reduced to spouting off a platatude or two and hoping things get off social issues so he can take about his new, new, newest tax plan



This is what's known as an outlier.


then when and if Romney ever does get a chance to talk about his newest tax plan *yawn*... he will immediately get hit with Gingrich's which is lower, and Santorums which is zero.



Which religion is Newt going to pick this week?

It's amazing how many people who call themselves small government conservatives are dying to have someone like Santorum who is just dying to inflict his extreme social views on everyone.


#75 shh.... don't tell them it will make it all the sweeter on election day 😛


but... but... but... the poll the other day said Romney was going to win by 50! how can this be!!! and a guy on race42012 said he heard Rasmussen say that Romney was surging on a MSNBC show that obviously wasn't broadcast anyone but his home! how can this be!!??


Larry Kudlow was very positive about Romney's Tax Plan this morning.

Now Romney needs to sell it and change the conversation BACK to the MOST IMPORTANT topic of the election - THE ECONOMY.

We don't need a nominee who will be held up as a religious zealot and playing Defense all through the fall, while the economy sinks in the background.

If the SoCons could only see they are the rubes being taken in a game of Three Card Monty - we might just be able to get rid of Obama.

Ricky ain't going to oust him.


Saying the race is over if Romney loses Michigan is a joke.

Romney has the money advantage, the delegate advantage, and will at least win Arizona. It's Santorum's campaign that's teetering on the edge of extinction. If he loses both, it's going to cut deeply into his claim that given the chance he can beat Romney head-to-head. He's also just starting to get vetted, and more wins would bring more vetting. He's been given a pass for a long time, and just starting to step up to the Major Leagues.

Santorum needs to win Michigan to maintain the belief that he can win, withstand the vetting process, and manage to raise more funds than he ever has before if he expects to win.

So far he's let Michigan slip to a virtual tie, gaffed up the airwaves, and has only about half a mil in the bank. He's NOT doing well.


Romney is down to only 8 million and burning 12 million a month, meanwhile Santorum is raising a million a day. Pretty soon Santorum will have all the money and Romney campaign will be bankrupt


Kudlow also revealed the important detail. Romney's plan is a 20% across the board

cut of marginal tax rates, so the top rate of 35% goes to 28%. I was surprised

Kudlow pointed out the potential pitfall - the plan is not deficit-neutral unless

it comes with big spending cuts and/or entitlement reform. Kudlow also said something

the dems will point to: "I think entitlements will be cut." Music to my ears but no

pol will say it.

Also interesting, of course, is that Geithner is announcing the administrations'

corporate tax reform plan this morning.

My Man Mitt 4 President

NBC/Marist poll MI Romney 37 Santorum 35 (+2 Romney) AZ (+16 Romney)


The NBC Marist poll has a huge sample and a very small MOE. this is excellent news for Romney's team. If Santorum begins to panic tonight, it may be an epic whine-fest!


#87 if you post it over and over maybe eventually you will believe it :)


Detroit News endorsing Romney is big. It means the Free Press (and likely the Oakland Press) will probably follow suit. No idea about the west-side papers, but I wouldn't be surprised to see them back Romney either.

glenn for president romney 2012


LOL. You must be getting dizzy. Santorum getting a million a day? ROTFL. He said he raised over $6M in all February. Also, how much net does he have according to this very site's stats? ZERO. How many states before the non-binding caucuses did he contend straight up? He left NH, SC, FL, and NV all early and used no money there. He will start to burn up his millions pretty quick when he has to contend each state. And is he playing in ALL the Super Tuesday states? Nope. His campaign is small time.

Now, Romney burned through a lot, yes. But what about money on hand? And just because Romney doesn't go around saying how much his campaign has raised every time they can to try and legitimize themselves like Santorum's does doesn't mean they aren't rolling in it, either. He'll be on top in the money each month.

But this is all besides the point. Romney will win the debate and win both primaries on the 28th. Mark it down.

You'll be here posting about how the crowd was biased, something derogatory about mormons, and how AZ doesn't really matter. Then, when Mitt wins MI closely, and I suspect it will be close, you'll say how damaging that is to Mitt. You'll be blind to your double standard of Rick having to win his homestate of birth and how all aspects of the media are shilling for Rick and Newt and fighting Mitt.

It doesn't matter, though. I just want the party to nominate the most qualified guy who can bring the party together and beat Obama. I think it's Mitt. You think it's, well...not Mitt.


It should be noted on the Marist Poll in Arizona that the poll DOES include Early and Absentee voters, and among those who have already voted Romney holds a 52-22 lead, that's why he will dominate Arizona guys, he has a big base of support there and he will win by double digits, its a no brainer, the only question now is Michigan but that is slowy starting to turn Romney's way as well.


Kiljoy....you must be relatively new here. I've been out of the country for a few weeks, and with no internet access, and return to these spamming of threads at my favorite pol site. Who are you? How old are you? Your posts sound amazingly like some other "_____ for loser" guy who hangs around here. His only purpose was to rile up others. That apparently is also your primary aim.

If I post it numerous times, btw, it'll only be to remind you of what's really occuring, so you can release your paranoia.

(I'll cease feeding the troll now.)

glenn for president romney 2012

91- exactly. These polls seem like the most thorough, informative polls released. It finally answered the question of the early votes in AZ, which confirmed everything I've heard anecdotally (lots of family/friends in AZ voting for Mitt). It shouldn't be discounted how MANY have voted early in AZ (hundreds of thousands). I think it'll be very similar to FL. However, I fully expect the media to ignore the WTA AZ primary in spite of them trying to whip it up as being close in today's media. When Mitt kills it, they'll brush it off.

Also, when Mitt wins a close one in MI, the press and the other candidates will use it all the day long to say how weak Romney is. How he didn't win by as much as he did in 2008 (can we stop hearing that, please? different electorate!). How he can't win conservatives (nicely ignoring the huge AZ victory). They'll completely ignore the fact that all the media is against Mitt and that the Dems, including Obama's PAC, are attacking Mitt and trying to get the vote out for Santorum in the cross-over primary. If Mitt can win MI by more than 2%, it'll be nothing short of a miracle considering the opposition.


Santorum really isn't qualified for the presidency. I'm enjoying the hype, but he's fading as we speak.



Yea Killjoy and Jason are the new Santorum spammers on this site who like to post 30 comments on each thread about how Santorum is going to win the nomination and we should ignore every poll that has Romney surging ahead, they are the new Craig's...lol



You've been gone?

You're in for some AMAZING NEWS.

Craig for Losers, Sojourner Truth, Harold, Jax, and CF have been banned.

I wish my allies Jax and CF weren't banned, but I'm glad the first three on that list are gone. This site is infinitely better now.


Imagine if Romney was losing Arizona & virtually tied in Michigan, was losing in delegate count, and having trouble raising funds. That he was being supported mainly by the media, but the media was starting to turn against him because of his record, and gaffes. Does that sound like Romney is about to win? Of course it doesn't. Anyone would love to trade position with Romney in this race and Romney wouldn't trade position with any of the others. Romney's winning, and will continue to win unless something major happens. The real question has been if Romney can reach the 1/2 way mark in delegates, and the answer will be yes.


Mass Con

Wow...I missed all the fun, dang it.

Thanks for the catch up.

My Man Mitt 4 President

A friend of mine in upper Michigan said that he used to listen to a show that was co hosted by Santorum. He said that he couldn't stand him then and can't stand him now and wonders if Santorum thinks he is running for Pope or Father of the year. I didn't realize that Santorum had a show. That explains why he loves to talk.. One lady that went to a rally of his complained that after he finished his lengthy speech, he just couldn't stop talking even when no one was asking him questions. Sounds like the debates.


I'm about more sanguine about Mitt's chances than Adam.

Even though it's clear (after the caucuses 2 weeks ago) that his organization was vastly overrated, I think he's still better positioned for a long campaign, which we will likely get, short of blowout wins in both MI and AZ by the same candidate.

If Mitt loses MI by any margin, he will be hurting. If he loses both MI and AZ, or loses one of them in a rout, he's definitely down for the count, and will need to start throwing haymakers to recover for Super Tuesday, which would become a last stand.

But if Mitt wins both, by whatever margin, he's the frontrunner again, and the heavy favorite again, and Rick is the one who will need a strong Super Tuesday to regain momentum.

One thing is for certain, Huck, Daniels, TPaw, Christie, et al. grossly overestimated Mitt's strength.


If the debate tonight (and the primary going forward) focuses too much on social issues, maybe Santy wins (though I doubt it), but definitely the GOP loses (in the general, because of the independents).

For those of you not living in "swing" states, Santy is not playing well outside the echo chamber.



"It’s Santorum’s campaign that’s teetering on the edge of extinction. If he loses both, it’s going to cut deeply into his claim that given the chance he can beat Romney head-to-head."

Remember, however, that both states are "home games" for Mitt next Tuesday. He's from Michigan, and won it in '08, and Arizona is a western state with a sizable LDS population. So Mitt winning both is par for the course. Rick won't be severly hurt unless he's non-competitive in both. What Mitt can't afford is another debacle like 2 weeks ago, where he lost 2 home games (one was a blowout) and was routed on a neutral court.


"It isn’t Santorum who thinks that Satan has taken over all the churches except for the Catholic Church." Ah no, that is not what he said.


Killjoy - you are such a TOOL. You and your little religion 'bubble.' You think the country wants to hear all this bull crap that Santorum is spouting about Satan and his 'hold on the NBA, the country, colleges, people, etc?" REALLY????? You think THAT'S what is going to play in the General???? Good hell man!!!! Pull your head out and get a clue!!! As for your comments about Mitt and temples - that is pure bullcrap as well. Mitt doesn't talk about his religion - as it should be. Let's live our lives religiously as per the dictates of our own conscience - not as per the dictates of some whackadoodle in a sweater vest!!!!



"For those of you not living in “swing” states, Santy is not playing well outside the echo chamber."

No worse than Mitt, aparently, if we judge by innumerable polls that show them almost identically matched against Obama now.

But I'm sure your (completely objective) anecdotal evidence means more than an avalanche of scientific polls.


#88 Where you looking in the mirror when you said that?

My Man Mitt 4 President

100. Matt While most of your post I agree with, It amazes me how Romney can continue to be as strong as he is and recover when you have conservative talk shows against you, FOX news for Santorum or Newt or Palin etc. MSM for Obama, and Obama's super PAC with ads against you. 78% of all press is negative and yet Mitt seems to fight and survive. His personality is reserved which is not what GOP wants and yet he survives. His religion is LDS which is Not what the Evangelicals want. I would say that IF he survives and wins the nomination it would be his strength that prevails.


A comment above accurately describes, "Romney has to spend big anywhere he wants to win." The corollary is that the other candidates do not. Why? Because of the free positive press they are getting while Romney has to battle the press from every side.

When the nation is in such financial turmoil, why are we not turning to the financial turn around genius. Especially the one that also matches our social values, not only by espousing them, but by living them.

But I tend to agree with Fehrnstrom that this "must win MI" is a media ploy. Boy, have they, the right wing media, stepped into the DNC playbook. The DNC have played our primary like a (use your own example).


"For those of you not living in “swing” states, Santy is not playing well outside the echo chamber." Tell your crazy story to the pollsters.


96. Sometimes harmony must be imposed from above, no doubt. Then everyone can write something to which thousands reply with Me, too!

Share and enjoy!


Doug NYC GOP Says:

February 22nd, 2012 at 7:35 am

Not an outlier sorry

It's a great poll for Mitt, sure.

But not an outlier? Let's check recent polls (according to RealClearPolitics):

NBC News/Marist 2/19 - 2/20 767 LV 43 27 16 11 Romney +16

WeAskAmerica 2/19 - 2/20 1155 LV 37 27 15 8 Romney +10

CNN/Time 2/17 - 2/20 467 LV 36 32 18 6 Romney +4

PPP (D) 2/17 - 2/19 412 LV 36 33 16 9 Romney +3

Rasmussen Reports 2/16 - 2/16 750 LV 39 31 15 7 Romney +8



"When the nation is in such financial turmoil, why are we not turning to the financial turn around genius." Fical genius in the private sector does not obviously translate into government.


Sickening this morning - Bill Hemmer noting that Romney is coming out with a tax plan. Asked Stuart Varney, "How much will we see how much it parallels or is like Pres. Obama's Tax plan?" BLATANT BLATANT BIAS!!

Then alluding to the debate tonite, Fox played only the snippet of Santorum biting at Romney - played it TWICE; Then they interviewed Gingrich and became ecstatic about how he called Obama Dangerous.

I'm sorry, but this is just ridiculous. BLATANT BIAS much, Murdock?


13, - YEAH, because almost ALL MEDIA is against him. Not free fawning and oodling over like the other candidates (especially ABR candidates) get.



No its not an outlier b/c it is the ONLY poll that includes early voters and absentee voters, the other polls that came out do not include those voters.

Among voters who have early voted, Romney has a WHOPPING 52-22 lead! And early voting turnout is HUGE so far in Arizona, Romney wins going away....


Don't worry guys, the media is slowly starting to turn on Santorum b/c he is finally being seen as the religious freak that he is. The man only cares about hard right social issues and I'm sorry but that does not win us the election in November, he would get creamed by Obama in many states and would lose the Female vote by an overwhelming margin, probably the largest in history!


In Arizona, Romney leads Obama by 5, while Santorum trails by 3.

Romney – 45%

Obama – 40%

Obama – 45%

Santorum – 42%

Santorum leads by 3; you reversed their numbers.


#105 Agreed, clearly Mitt is not playing well either (still a close race), but my (decidedly unobjective) sentiment gauge is registering a lot of buyer's remorses over votes cast for Rick based on the lunacy coming from his campaign this past week.


My Man,

On the other hand, I would argue that Mitt wouldn't be where he is today if Talk Radio hadn't propped him up as the anti-Mac in '08.

The irony is that they made him the heir apparent. Remember that besides 3 "home" primaries, all he won were little caucuses, for the same reason Rick is winning them now.

What Right Wing Infotainment giveth, Right Wing Infotainment taketh away. When you rail againt Limbaugh, Levine, etc... (and I agree they are a blot on society), you are biting the hand that once fed you. If it weren't for them, Mitt would have been an also ran in '08, and perhaps not even of any importance this year.

My Man Mitt 4 President

112. Ohio, It may not translate into government, but government has NOT been able to turn around government (debt/over spending, let alone a budget in over 1000 days). I am willing to take the risk with someone who has a proven record of turning around businesses, Olympics and Govt. The tea party has been asking for someone outside of the White House Politics, some one not eating and living off the government trough. It is time to take a chance on Mitt Romney and I am willing to take that chance.


#109 They don't poll much after the fact... The Kleig lights have not been kind...


#113 - I just watched that and add in, Martha McCallums - Isn't this debate Romney's do or die moment? conversation with Ed Rollins (Who looks like he already needs a scotch & soda and it's not even 10AM)


110. Of all the virtues, I've always felt unity was the most under-rated, and the most unfairly feared.

Abandon dissonance now!


Even though it’s clear (after the caucuses 2 weeks ago) that his organization was vastly overrated, I think he’s still better positioned for a long campaign, which we will likely get, short of blowout wins in both MI and AZ by the same candidate.

In 1988 GHWB, won only 5 of first 12 states, 6 of the losses were caucuses. Pat Robertson placed ahead of him in 4 contests, 3 caucuses and 1 primary.

In 2008 all the caucuses went to respectable, serious politicians, because we had respectable, serious options who were both in some aspects right of the "next-in-line". In 2000 all the caucuses went to the "next-in-line", GWB, because anti-establishment candidate was running left of him.

In 1996, Pat Buchanan won 3 caucuses. It is perfectly normal for the "next-in-line" candidate to lose caucuses to people who are too much off the center of the big tent, towards one of the corners, or who really have should no business to run for presidency, Pat Robertson won 3 caucuses and in addition to actual victories, ninjaed Nevada delegation.



"No its not an outlier b/c it is the ONLY poll that includes early voters and absentee voters"

Okay, but you're still assuming its accuracy in polling those people, which just begs the original question. You're simply making the hypothesis (the accuracy of the poll) part of your premise.


The problem with the ABR's is that they have made the primary all about hating Mitt, not about supporting a candidate.

My Man Mitt 4 President

126. True..


YEAH, because almost ALL MEDIA is against him.

Yesterday morning on Morning Joe (I know!), Mark Halperin flatly stated as a matter of fact that the journalists on the campaign trail all dislike Romney. He said it was in part because their access was very limited by the campaign, which made their reporting nearly impossible. But they also felt that Mitt is a flip-flopper.

This is the mess that Team Mitt has created by shielding their guy. They apparently think it worked for Obama to limit media access, but Mitt simply isn't a rock star like BamO was. The Romney campaign has miscalculated terribly in this, turning a curious media hostile.


If Mitt loses one of the states, the narrative will change to "game over for Mitt." That basically sums up your article, right?

Well, that would be a media narrative. So, since when has it been a great idea to buck everything that the "establishment" says and swallow what the media throws out there hook line and sinker? I'd like to do my own thinking, thank you very much.

Not that I think Mitt's going to lose either state, making this entire discussion moot.


I didn't know Craig for FOTM got banned. Dang. He made it fun... Made even Axelrod seem rational.


119. Observing human nature again, I see. Yes, biting the hand that fed you is expected. Once the hand stops feeding you, your sense of entitlement leads to rage, leads to retaliation and vengeful thoughts. YES!

The absolute, penultimate way to stab at the heart of these people and twist the knife?

Change the channel.


Mitt is from Massachussetts, is Mormon, and is a convert to pro-life, which, in the Republican Party, makes him a triple heretic before we even mention RomneyCare.

Santorum is running to cleanse the nation, asking us to team up with him, see Satan's influence even in automobile mileage standards, and fight the devil once and for all.

Either we get the triple heretic or the Sweatered Crusader.

This is a weird year.

I'm pulling for the heretic. Saint Rick needs a pulpit, but not the Bully Pulpit, and I'm betting that in the contest between the part of the base that hates Satan and the other that hates taxes, in the Republican Party the base that hates taxes will prevail.


102 That's your spin anyway. How many "home games" can Romney have? New Hampshire, Maine, Utah, Arizona, Massachusetts, and Michigan are all "home games"? The dynamic is different this time around. Some of the states Romney won he's going to lose this time around, and some he lost he's going to win. It was a mistake to think his caucus wins 4 years ago would carry through to today. Michigan is probably Santorum's best shot at an "upset" against Romney. It's a blue collar state, and Romney's childhood there is probably offset by his contention that the auto companies should have been allowed to declare bankruptcy. If Santorum can't win there, he's only proven he can win caucuses.


128. You miss the point. You become a rockstar, in part, by limiting people's access to you. Does the press love Rick Santorum? Or Newt Gingrich? I really doubt it.

(however, I acknowledge that taking issue with you on this obscure point is hypocritical, given my previous post about unity.)


"No its not an outlier b/c it is the ONLY poll that includes early voters and absentee voters, the other polls that came out do not include those voters." This is a pure falsehood.


My kids are pretty happy because we know longer watch Faux News around here, tying up the TV at night. Fox is as biased as MSNBC. Now I do my own homework - reading blogs, etc. Rupert and Rush, Hannity and levin, Laura Ingraham - all spouting rhetoric, not news. Even O'Reilley has fallen from grace in my opinion. . . .


119. Matt,

"On the other hand, I would argue that Mitt wouldn’t be where he is today if Talk Radio hadn’t propped him up as the anti-Mac in ’08 . . . If it weren’t for them, Mitt would have been an also ran in ’08, and perhaps not even of any importance this year."

Not at all. Talk radio came on board late. Romney was already a threat to McCain before they reluctantly decided he was a little better than Huckabee. And even after Huckabee stayed in a month longer than Romney, Romney still came in second. Mitt's success had pretty much nothing to to with talk radio.


FOX, Rush et.al. better hope Romney stays around in order to make it a race....they need an enemy..It's good for ratings.


Matt MWS - you always have a very high bar for Romney and I agree with the sentiment you have too many homegames.

You have fallen into the media trap that every week Romney has to achieve a win in a "must win state" win "every debate" deliver "do or die speech" and when he does.....nothing.

The guy has to face the 12 Labors of Hercules, while all it seems the other contenders have to do is:






get tounge tied,

wear stupid sweater vests,

have their staff quit,

be accused of sexual infidelity and abuse,

chicken out,

not be given permission to run by their wives,

complain their religious positons are being distorted,

and get free biased free coverage.

Give the guy some credit for Pete's sake.


#137: Thank you Claire - very accurate. The Talking Truth Twisters were late arrivals on the Romney bus.


You become a rockstar, in part, by limiting people’s access to you.

I've been trying that approach for years, too. But I'm still not a rockstar.

The thing is that Bam became a political rockstar for his speech at the 2004 DNC nominating convention. He capitalized (and monetized) his status with an autobiography based on being the son of a single mom and an African absentee dad. This stuff, along with his Harvard law degree and community organizing for social justice, made a natural fan base fall into his lap: academic and media elites -- the folks with the biggest soapboxes and megaphones.

Mitt's fan base is much smaller, less influential in shaping fashionable opinion, and lacking in soapboxes or megaphones worth mentioning.


Has anybody noticed how Santorum is talking lately? Kind of slow and choppy like he's grasping for words.

He's way in over his head and can't take the pressure.


141. Yes, but we're good looking.


139. Funniest list I've read this year! LOL!


To those who think that if social issues or religion are brought up tonight, Rick will win: Of course they will be brought up tonight. But there is no guarantee that Rick will handle them in a way that will make himself look good.


You have fallen into the media trap that every week Romney has to achieve a win in a “must win state” win “every debate” deliver “do or die speech” and when he does…..nothing.

Well, in fairness, the question for me is whether to give Mitt no credit at all, or to accuse him of jumping through all the hoops anyone sets in front of him like he's some sort of trained rat.



All true.....We'll see if all that toughens up Mitt or weakens him in the general...



Talk radio had been chopping McCain up all primary, and Huck too, as soon as he got popular.

The parallels are very similar. They haven't officially "endorsed" Rick either. He's just getting the blocking and tackling from Talk Radio that Mitt got last time.


The Santorum "speech" really is a game changer. Before that bomb went off, I would have said if Romney loses Michigan, he's probably finished.

As much as the Santorum campaign would like to spin that stemwinder as just the belief in "good and evil", level headed people realize this sort of hellfire and brimstone will scare the hell out of most independent voters (to say nothing of the insults he hurled at mainstream Protestants for not being real Christians, which is probably the single largest voting bloc in the GOP)

Whatever happens in Michigan, the GOP at large is going to be asking themselves if they really want to lose a landslide election just because Romney is not perfect on the issues. If Mitt narrowly loses Michigan, I actually think he's still viable to continue, as I would like to think there's still a significant amount of Republicans that would actually like to win the White House.


IS it GAME over if Santorum loses his birth state??? Virginia???? How bout it Adam???/


Goodness........can Fox be ANYMORE manipulative/biased than they already are?

I guess so. From the "top dog".

Don't be 'tools' Americans! Use common sense of what they re doing to America!


#139/140 Yep!


All of my friends and I (and I have a lot of political junkie friends!) have banned Fox news and talk radio. We know their paychecks depend upon a horserace, but we're all sick of the bias. Romney is proving himself the strongman in this race, and no thanks to the media, he will drop Obama in November.


133. "Santorum is running to cleanse the nation, asking us to team up with him, see Satan’s influence even in automobile mileage standards, and fight the devil once and for all."

Don't you know that God hates mileage standards?


154. Good job! Ban em from your life, your thoughts, and especially from supporting their website/channel with traffic.

It's amazing how much better life is wo Fox Wendi!

Banned em myself over three month ago...immediately dropped 20 lbs, my hair fully regrew, and women now find me even more devastatingly attractive:)


Quick update from wyoming. As it is right now....Ron Paul and Mitt Romney are pretty much splitting everything. They are consistently getting 1st and 2nd in all of the precinct caucuses. Ron Paul has won several counties, and so has Mitt. I'm guessing that Paul will win Natrona count(my county) as well...with romney getting 2nd. I could be surprised though.

Comments are closed.

Recent Posts

Tweets by @Racefour

Search R4'16