February 16, 2012

Obama Beating All Comers in Swing State Poll…With a Caveat

Fox News has released a poll of the nation’s various “swing” regions, testing both President Obama’s job approval in those regions, as well as his head-to-head numbers against each of the remaining GOP contenders. Full results can be found here. The poll split the nation’s swing states into three regions: the Rust Belt (IA, WI, PA, OH), the Southeast (FL, NC, VA), and the Mountain West (CO, NV, NM). Interestingly, the poll shows that President Obama is most popular in the Southeast, with his job approval reaching 50% in the formerly red region, while the once reddish Mountain West gives the president a 47% approval rating. Meanwhile, the Rust Belt states, which George W. Bush once struggled to win, give the president only a 41% approval rating.

In the head-to-head matchups between the president and the two Republican frontrunners, Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum, the president absolutely obliterates both candidates in both the Southeast and the Mountain West. The president breaks 50% in the Southeast against both candidates, and only Romney holds Obama under 50 in the Mountain West, but just barely. Meanwhile, Santorum actually ties the president in the Rust Belt, while Romney trails the president by a single point in the same region, a statistical tie to be sure. Additionally, the president is having trouble breaking out of the lower 40s in the Rust Belt, which means, for all intents and purposes, that the Republican nominee has a good shot of taking one or more Rust Belt states if the undecideds break for the challenger as they often do.

As such, we could yet be treated to a new template this fall, even if President Obama manages to win a second term. If the president were to win the Southeastern states of Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia, as well as the Western states of Colorado, Nevada, and New Mexico, and if the GOP nominee managed to pull in the Rust Belt states of Ohio, Pennsylvania, Iowa, and Wisconsin, the president would win the Electoral College with 293 electoral votes to the GOP’s 245 electoral votes, provided that all other states returned to their red/blue status from 2004. This would signal the end of the electoral map of the Bush years, with cultural battle lines drawn on the Ohio River and on Mason-Dixon, and would be the beginning of a new dichotomy, one which would see the parts of the country dominated by the young, the educated, the multicultural, and the creative class complete their shift into blue territory, while the parts of the country that are older, whiter, and more working class become more red.

It should also be noted that the parts of the country that have best adapted to the realities of the new economy are naturally going to give credit to the party presently in power, which is why regions like the New Economy Southeast are warming back up to Obama, while the economically stagnant Rust Belt moves towards the Republicans as the party out of power. This would also serve to illustrate the challenges that face Republicans in the years ahead, given that the nation’s leading demographic and economic indicators appear poised to fall on the blue side of the divide, putting Republicans in a position where they must attempt to grab the low hanging fruit of the Old Economy Rust Belt without putting forth policies antithetical to the growth that is taking place throughout the Sun Belt.

by @ 10:21 pm. Filed under 2012 Electoral College Projection
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85 Responses to “Obama Beating All Comers in Swing State Poll…With a Caveat”

  1. eric Says:

    just like I said yesterday, Obam will win re-election

  2. NoMoreModerates Says:

    Way too early to focus on GE polls although they are nice conversation pieces. But what won’t change is the absolute diversity of voters, issues and interests in these states (blue vs white collar; hispanics; states w/ high foreclosures; energy).

    Btw, new Santorum superpac ad.

    http://youtu.be/32ogFoTVsDA

  3. penny Says:

    http://www.insidemichiganpolitics.com/

    Woop woop! The MI beat down has begun to show in the polls….

    Mitt is tied… wait a few days…. Mitt will pull ahead…. wait few more…. and it is Florida all over again…

    And then Super Tuesday will be a sweep….. yes… this is good news.

    My theory… Sarah threatening to get in people got the scare in them and are stopping messing around now and it will be Mitt!!!

    Thank you Sarah Palin… you make me proud to be an American… we do have some sense after all.

    Say not to Sarah, vote MITT!

  4. eric Says:

    penny, which is poll?

  5. Sarah from AK Says:

    This is kind of depressing.

  6. Dave Says:

    The new IMP poll showing Mitt in a 33 to 33 tie in Michigan definitely is showing a trend. We should see polls in the next few days showing him up by several points.

    Then, we can see who shows up to the polls.

  7. Dave Says:

    The swing polls probably mean that Romney chooses either Bob McDonnell or Marco Rubio for VP. It’s the worst region right now for Republicans, and it needs to be won.

    Romney should have a better shot at the mountain west, and he’s in a virtual tie in the Midwest anyway, which is looking the most promising.

  8. krissmith777 Says:

    6.

    I hope it’s real and not an outlier.

  9. Andrew Ryan Says:

    Romney has taken on Pawlenty, Bachmann, Perry, Cain, Gingrich, and now Santorum. Romney has proven time and time again that the most dangerous place to be in american politics is running against Mitt Romney.

    The Romney campaign has created such an incredibly efficient political machine. The best part is Santorum has no defense against it.

  10. asparagus Says:

    Sorry this is unrelated to topic but since the board is dead tonight, had a thought about our candidates related to Santorum’s backer and the Bayer aspirin trick.

    Each of the big three candidates seem to be obsessed with sex.

    If Newt is the nominee, the election will be all about the male sex organ, specifically Newt’s. What he’s done, who he’s done, etc.
    If Santorum is the nominee, the election will be all about the female sex organ, and how Santorum wants to keep the gals knees together.
    And Romney? Well, we are all told he is a Ken Doll, right? So we won’t hear much sex talk from him. Another way Romney strikes the perfect balance between Newt and Santorum.

  11. pea-jay Says:

    I liked the way Fox chose to poll these states.

    I don’t think Obama is in real danger of losing WI and PA…closer than 2008, but the two states are not “Rust-belty” like OH and MI are. The WI left is fired up and the recall should give a pretty good heads up how motivated they are to go to the polls. The state also has a long liberal streak. As for PA Philly and suburbs should still go strongly for Obama again and that should be enough to staunch the loss elsewhere in the state. I think OH is ripe for returning to its recent republican tendancies and long term, so should MI. I think the AA vote in Detroit and other cities will keep the state Blue this go around.

    Of the S.East three, VA probably is the most likely to stick with Obama. The character of that state is changing and almost all of the portions growing are Dem constituencies. I think FL and NC have a pretty good shot at being flipped by Romney. Most likely not by anyone else. Continued improvement in the economy may push those two out of reach of even Romney. Too early to tell. FL’s housing bust is still worse than the overall economy.

    Finally the west. I like Fox’s groupings but in this area there are different trends going on. All three have sizeable and growing Hispanic populations. Good for Dems. But NV has been real hard hit by the recession and has quite a sizable population of working class whites. I’m mystified how Obama is even close, let alone up here. CO on the other hand has a growing professional white population that is more apt to vote dem yet the president’s approval rating is not higher. I consider NM a Blue state that is inclined to support Republicans from time to time.

  12. pea-jay Says:

    “If Newt is the nominee, the election will be all about the male sex organ, specifically Newt’s. What he’s done, who he’s done, etc.
    If Santorum is the nominee, the election will be all about the female sex organ, and how Santorum wants to keep the gals knees together.
    And Romney? Well, we are all told he is a Ken Doll, right? So we won’t hear much sex talk from him. Another way Romney strikes the perfect balance between Newt and Santorum.”

    And where would Ron Paul fit in this sex talk analogy?

  13. asparagus Says:

    Its pretty hard to imagine the old guy even getting it on to be honest. That should be a Constitutional requirement to be President. Demonstrate that everything is still in good working order. Roosevelt was in a wheelchair though. Hard to imagine him banging starlets JFK-style.

    If I have to answer though, since Ron Paul is a doctor, he could give Newt a prostate exam, and give Santorum a PAP smear.

  14. haner Says:

    Romney with a younger possibly Hispanic/female VP is really the only hope the Republican Party has to position itself for the next decade, by dipping into the “New Economy” as it recovers in the next several years. The Democrats are still riding the wave of the 1990s prosperity. Had Republicans held the presidency in 1990s and the Dems in 2000s, the tech boomers allegiance would have been very different today.

    Santorum will turn the GOP into the party of retreads with his “contraceptives are evil” mantra. And don’t think 2016 will save the day for the Republicans. It’s very likely that our economy will be out of the trenches by 2016 and a new technology would be fueling new prosperity.

  15. Sampo Says:

    There’s a reason “generic republican” always polls better than everyone else. The field is weak weak weak.

  16. haner Says:

    The IMP poll on the 15th had Santorum up by 10%.

    Maybe Santorum has truly peaked. These past few days of contraceptive talk can’t be good for Santorum.

  17. Teemu Says:

    Here is my analysis of weird samples in some of the previous polls that gave huge victory margins to Santorum, not of this Inside MI Politics/Victory Phones survey

    STRONG support for TP in 2012 exit polls:

    Florida: 35%
    South Carolina: 33%
    New Hampshire: 22%

    Inside MI Politics/MRG poll claims that STRONG tea party support for Michigan: 47%

    Strong Tea Party support has corroborated with “very conservative” +-3. This means that 47% Strong tea party support sample is 44-50% “very conservative”, in 2008 exit polls “very conservative” were 24% in MI primary.

    Mitchell/Rosetta Stone claims 41% increase in evangelicals (55%/39%=1.41) to 2008 exit polls, when the largest increase was this year in South Carolina, slightly over 8.3% (65%/60%=1.08333).

    PPP poll Michigan sample is more conservative than South Carolina was in exit polls this year. “Very conservative” 38%, too high when compared to 2008 primary turnout, 24%.

    By the way I noticed on interesting thing about the polls. In the some previous Republican presidential primary, Oakland and Macomb county have gone the winner by similar margins, less than 1 point difference in victory margin, but at least two pollsters have claimed that Romney wins Oakland by huge margin and Santorum wins Macomb by huge margin, eventhough in the two previous Republican presidential primary and other elections in too, they have behaved relatively similarly, when it comes to the winner and his victory margin.

    Also one the polls claims that Macomb, one urban Detroit surrounding country next to Romney’s home county Oakland, where Romney got 45.37% last time, is now supposedly the most anti-LDS county in Michigan, where 17.5% are less likely to vote for LDS according to Glengariff Group.

    Romney 2008 victory margin in: Oakland +19.9 Macomb +20.7

    McCain 2000 victory margin in: Oakland +4.53 Macomb +4.62

    Basically both counties go by same margin to the winner, but in these polls they go to different winner by huge margins.

    Glengariff Group: Oakland Romney +23.9 Macomb Santorum +20
    PPP: Oakland Romney +14 Macomb Santorum +28

    So different winner by huge margins, giving over 40 point difference in victory margin between the counties for both polls. If you look other primaries and also elections, Oakland and Macomb have behaved reasonably similarly. I guess it is possible that the results are correct. On the other hand, maybe civilized parts of this county are part of some phone system or operator, who doesn’t allow polling, most of the calls go to some anti-LDS hicks in some unincorporated part of the county, in the middle of the woods. :D

    The average of those two polls of Romney’s victory margin in Oakland is 19%, pretty close to 2008 Oakland victory margin over McCain 19.9%

  18. Teemu Says:

    16:
    That Inside MI Politics/MRG is the poll with 47% Strong tea party support, meaning 44-50% “very conservative” sample when in 2008 MI primary exit polls it was 24%.

  19. haner Says:

    17

    I think the debate will be make and break again…. At least 20% of the voters are undecided. We haven’t had a debate since Santorum’s sweep. People don’t really know who the guy is yet aside from maybe him being a strong social conservative.

  20. bob Says:

    The polls also shows both Romney and Santorum leading in the all-important state of Ohio.

    By the way the Gallup daily tracking poll yesterday came in at 43/48.

    I wonder also whether they gave too much weight to blue states in the poll especially in the Rust Belt where Obama is bound to do better and probably win.

    States should be polled separately and not on a regional basis. After all the election is decided in the electoral college state by state.

  21. bob Says:

    The Bush 2004 states are definitely in play:

    There is no way our nominee is going to win Michigan or Wisconsin and probably not PA either.

    But we could very well win back all 5 swing states that Obama took in 2008.

    I’ve done the calculations;

    Our nominee starts off with 180 electoral votes in red states won n 2008:

    Then he wins back the 5 swing states: That’s 86 more EV.

    We’re already at 266 EV. Our man only then needs to win one of Nevada, Colorado and NH to get to 270 EV.

    If he wins all three then he captures 285 EV which is one short of what Bush 43 got in 2004. And that is exactly how I see the election playing out.

    And under this scenario if our man captured all three, he could still get to 270 even if he lost VA or NC.

    FLA, Indiana and Ohio are must wins. The good news. All currently have GOP governors.

  22. Massachusetts Conservative Says:

    It’s hard to see how we break 200 EVs the way this thing is going so far.

  23. Teemu Says:

    Also one silver lining is the maker of this poll, Anderson Robbins Research (D) / Shaw & Company Research (R) Interviews, that in their previous poll had more Obama friendly Dem/Rep/Ind turnout than in 2008 exit polls ( http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2012/02/10/fox-news-poll-methodology-santorum-surge-obama/ ). For some reason they don’t announce the Dem/Rep/Ind sample sizes now, but you can calculate from cross tabs and 2008 exit poll that it is basically 2008 turnout, I don’t think Dems are going to have that level of advantage over Republicans in 2012.

  24. Teemu Says:

    In the cross tabs you can see that Romney loses independent vote only by 3 points, despite all the positive hype over economy and primary mess.

  25. NoMoreModerates Says:

    Santorum gave a strong interview on CBS this morning that will get a lot of play on cable. The contrast developing in the media is that you can trust what Santorum says because he believes it and is consistent whereas, obviously, Romney has not been consistent and therefore you can’t trust him.

    The contraceptives issues is a win for Santorum in MI (as well as OH and Super Tuesday states). It speaks to the 25% of the MI electorate that is catholic and to others concerned about our permissive culture. Frankly, the death of Ms. Houston plays into that as well. On CBS Santorum spoke about abstinence, which is almost a code word for personal responsibility and restraint.

    What Santorum lacks is an actual campaign – the bricks and mortar. A win in MI, I am told, will not just bring in money but infrastructure from DC. If he is going to be the nominee the party must begin now to help him build a real campaign.

  26. Jeff Fuller Says:

    25 Yeah, Santorum’s consistent on such useless issues such as raising the debt limit (against it now, but voted to raise it 5 times), Right-to-work (voted against it several times, but says he supports it as a POTUS candidate), and the Tea Party (which he was concerned about and would work to oppose their efforts just 3 years ago, yet now he wraps himself in the Tea party mantle and calls himself a Tea Partier.)

    Need we go on?

  27. Jeff Fuller Says:

    25, you’re right that this is the media narrative that’s developing, but it’s completely dishonest and demonstrably false. But it fits their agenda, honesty is low on the priority list.

  28. Machtyn Says:

    2. I agree. I find it heartening that Obama is still so close to the 50% mark. If he was in the 60′s or above, then it might be a problem. Since there is no general consensus on the GOP nominee, the polls are inherently fractured.

    Just like we’ve seen the previous 3 years, Obama has enjoyed a bump in popularity after the State of the Union address. (Why do you think he hasn’t changed it at all.) But, like before, that popularity wanes as we head through the summer months, with major dissatisfaction peaking in November. Convenient, that.

  29. Machtyn Says:

    btw, I’m basing that off the lines seen at RealClearPolitics.

  30. Granny T Says:

    According to things I’ve read, Rick Santorum was a co-sponsor of the balanced budget amendment.

    The courage to balance the budget by Rick Santorum

  31. Jeff Fuller Says:

    Lol GrannyT. Love ya, but he’s got a major big spending history. That dog won’t hunt.

    Voted to increase debt limit 5 times, voted to increase spending 50 times. Loves earmarks.

    And the narrative is that mitt is a cynical and hypocritical politician?

    Time to unravel the sweater.

  32. teledude Says:

    31. Sorry Jeff, but Rick is a far more credible conservative than Mitt is.

    The problem with legislators running for president is they have many ‘questionable’ votes one can dig up in their record. But no one believes Rick doesn’t want to cut spending and balance the budget.

    Tying to claim otherwise just looks desperate on Romney’s part.

    Once you lose credibility, it’s tough to get it back. That’s the problem Mitt finds himself with.

    I don’t think the blowtorch is going to work this time.

  33. Teemu Says:

    It had 61 co-sponsors in Senate. Anyway, voting for some amendment that didn’t go through doesn’t matter that much, but the actual spending and pork.

  34. RACE 4 2016 Says:

    It’s only gonna get worse

    DOW will hit 13,000 today or Tuesday

    Unemployment is looking better

    Oil prices will Help Obama demonize Big Oil

    Tax cuts for the rich is a losing argument in Nov

    Obama has maintained high favoribility even with 10% unemploymsnt

  35. teledude Says:

    PublicPolicyPolling @ppppolls
    Santorum up about 9 points on Romney on the first night of our Washington poll…would be big win sandwiched between MI/AZ and Super Tuesday

  36. Massachusetts Conservative Says:

    32

    Rick Santorum has demonstrated time and time again that he is not serious about cutting spending. He was a rubber stamp for the Bush Administration’s failed overspending and big government. And you almost never hear him talking about balancing the budget. All he talks about are condoms and Obamacare.

    If we nominate Santorum, the debt and spending issues are basically off the table, because he will continue to respond to questions about condoms whenever asked.

  37. Granny T Says:

    It was only one vote short of going through. Did PoliticFact rate Rick Santorum says he called for resignation of a high-ranking Republican over no vote on balanced budget amendment true or false?

  38. NoMoreModerates Says:

    #34 – I am not one to talk down the economy but we are still in the woods. Philly Fed as well as Gallup are predicting a big drop in employment for the next report; oil/gas is a huge drag on economy; and debt/deficits are obviously way too high. Inflation is also up. So economic picture appears to be improving, but there are real structural defects in economy that need addressing.

    Gallup also disagrees with recent polls of Obama’s approval rating. They have him in mid 40′s.

  39. Granny T Says:

    NoMoreModerates mentioned the CBS interview of Santorum this morning. Aron has it up on the Argo Journal (he also has interviews of Hannity with Romney and Greta with Santorum up) Maybe one of the fp posters could put all five videos up for discussion on one thread???

  40. Andrew Ryan Says:

    37. True or false, did Santorum vote to raise the debt ceiling 5 times?

    True or false, is our country currently facing an economic crises because of the reckless spending and debt racked up by past republican and democratic majorities?

    I’ll help you out; True on both counts. Rick Santorum is a big spending liberal who whines too much. Washington needs new blood.

  41. KS Says:

    The next president has to be able to push back on the partisanship in DC. Mitt has proven he can do this in Mass. Rick will be a polarizing figure resulting in more gridlock. If the nation ever wants to turn the ship away from the rocks, Mitt is the man. If Mitt loses, man the lifeboats.

  42. Granny T Says:

    Kavon,
    Is there a reason my last “comment is awaiting moderation”? Is it wrong to mention something on Aron’s blog site? Or have I said something “over the top”?

  43. Granny T Says:

    I see it cleared right before I asked. But, I’m still curious.

  44. teledude Says:

    All you Rombots whining and wondering who and what we mean by “the establishment” should maybe watch this.

    Whoa…

    a refreshing message

    Sarah Palin On Taking the Establishment On and Winning
    http://video.foxbusiness.com/v/1456629837001/

  45. Andrew Ryan Says:

    43. HA! Taking advice from Sarah Palin on winning is like taking advice from Timothy Geithner on how to get away with not paying your taxes.

  46. Booyeah Says:

    44,

    First, great name. Love Bioshock.

    Second, it’s more like taking advice on how to make people love you from LeBron James. Or taking advice from Richard Nixon on how to not be paranoid.

  47. teledude Says:

    Santorum destroyed Charlie Rose on CBS this morning.

    Just awesome… how can you not like this?

    http://www.therightscoop.com/santorum-responds-to-bayer-aspirin-joke/

  48. KS Says:

    43 Sarah rails on the political class that got us in this mess. Aren’t Rick and Newt part of that? She talks out of both sides of her mouth. Romney turned around Mass, and that should be good enough for Sarah.

    If Romney isn’t the nominee, I hope Sarah pulls a coup and goes down in flames so we can move past her. She is poison.

  49. Andrew Ryan Says:

    45. Haha, Yes!

    I am Andrew Ryan, and I am here to ask you a question. Is a man not entitled to the sweat of his brow?

  50. RACE 4 2016 Says:

    Love Bioshock

    Me too. One of the best games ever.

    2 was just okay. I’m really excited for the new one

  51. My Man Mitt 4 President Says:

    KS Amen! I find her shortcut method CHEATING. If she wanted to be POTUS she had support and could have shown her strength by getting vetted, finding endorsers, raising money, being prepared for debates, running all over the country for rallies. She has been stirring up contention in this race and should not be rewarded EVER.

  52. NoMoreModerates Says:

    DNC hitting Romney on Olympic bailout

    http://youtu.be/qY29UIpGhAs

  53. Booyeah Says:

    NO…says the man in Washington, it belongs to the poor. NO…says the man in the Vatican, it belongs to God. NO!…says the man in Moscow….it belongs to EVERYONE!

  54. Massachusetts Conservative Says:

    Palin is not going to vie for the nomination at the convention. Please stop talking about her. She is just not going to do it. Anyone who thinks she will is clueless.

  55. Matt "MWS" Says:

    Dave,

    I love your demographic pieces, and it’s true that Republicans are struggling with some notable groups that are ascendant, including Hispanics, Gen Y, and the New Economy Winners.

    And we definitely need to find a way to reach each of those groups, each of which present its own challenges and opportunities.

    But couldn’t we also consider the New Economy Losers to be numerically ascendant as well?

  56. machtyn Says:

    43. The funny thing is that when I watch that, I clearly see Santorum standing at a podium denouncing the TEA Party and defending earmarks. To give Palin some credit, she hasn’t non-endorsed, supported Santorum yet; but she is still fully on board with Gingrich, a true DC Insider with a real history of “flip-flops”.

  57. teledude Says:

    And for those of you who think Newt is “done.”

    CBS confirms Sheldon Adelson forking over another $10m to Gingrich SuperPAC. Money will appear within “days.”

  58. Viking Says:

    If by the grace of G*d Santorum can pick up OH, IN and PA, we’d only need Rubio to take FL and somehow win NC. Not really impossible.

  59. NoMoreModerates Says:

    #56 – Yes, but with a twist. Apparently Adelson wants to take out Santorum.

    All of these guys are going to be campaign issues, btw. The billionaires buying the presidency. Not to say it is anything new, but it has been awhile since they were so public.

  60. Massachusetts Conservative Says:

    56

    He’s done.

  61. RACE 4 2016 Says:

    Lots of bad polls

    Speck of good news:

    Brown up on ‘elitist hick’ warren in Mass

  62. Matthew Kilburn Says:

    “Oil prices will Help Obama demonize Big Oil”

    Oil prices go both ways. Obama can demonize big oil, yet by blocking drilling and the pipeline, as well as stringent environmental regulations, Republicans can point the finger right back at him.

  63. Granny T Says:

    What is going on with Maine? Maine Caucus Results Look Even Fishier

  64. MarqueG Says:

    51. Ouch!

    The clips of J-Mac are particularly disastrous…

  65. MarqueG Says:

    56. There were some stories a few days ago that Adelson wanted to donate to the Newt SPAC specifically to rip on Santo, in part by request of Romney financiers. Dunno if Rick can withstand gold-plated cesspools being dropped onto his head. That would just leave Newt as the anti-Mitt, but he tends to tear himself up when the negative ads kick up to eleven.

  66. NoMoreModerates Says:

    These wealthy political financiers seem to be acting contrary to their criticisms of the economy, which is that the Fed and Obama are spending too much propping up the economy instead of letting the free market work. In the same fashion, they are propping up Romney, who the market (voters) will not buy otherwise. In other words, Romney can’t win a campaign on issues and message against Santorum or Gingrich. He can only win by distorting the market with negative ads.

  67. Mark in PA Says:

    43
    Talk about slant and spin.

    Sarah talks out both sides of her mouth. She keeps using the buzz word about someone “managing” our problems – a veiled reference to Mitt that Newt loves to use. If you think CEOs are managers, you have no clue how a business runs. Managers are needed in organizations, but never at the top… and no where near the top of venture capital CEOs, which are all about vision and leadership to effect positive change.

    Then she went off about how it’s really who the candidate surrounds themselves with that defines them as “Establishment,” and then they talked about how Reagan bucked his advisors and did his own thing. And who has Mitt surrounded himself with? I kid you not, then the Fox guy, David whatever, after ripping on Mitt, actually asked whether we would need to wait for a “Chris Christie or Paul Ryan to come in and shake things up.” Who’s Christie backing? Yep – Mitt. What’s Ryan doing now? For all intents and purposes, it’s Mitt’s plan that he’s pushing.

    The hypocrisy abounds.

  68. teledude Says:

    62. Just as in Iowa…the GOP establishment running the state party is quick to name Romney a winner, when the final results may not show that to be the case.

  69. Nostradamus Says:

    67.

    Santorum is the heavy favorite according to the pundits and polls in Michigan however Romney still has an outside chance.

    Give em severe hell “comeback kid” Mitt!

    P.S. Where you headed for lunch today?

  70. Jeff Fuller Says:

    Can’t watch it here … But did Palin, or has anyone, named individuals who are official members of the establishment (aside from “anyone who endorses Mitt”)?

  71. Thunder (Romney/Rubio 2012) Says:

    teledude Says:
    February 17th, 2012 at 9:50 am

    62. Just as in Iowa…the GOP establishment running the state party is quick to name Romney a winner, when the final results may not show that to be the case.
    ==============================================================
    Excuse me, he did win based on the Result returned from all of the sites. It is not their fault that some of the sites lost their results. It is funny how everyone was willing to say it was a virtual tie when Romney was slightly ahead of Santorum, but then when some votes where missplaced, there is no talk of virtual tie, and now all we hear is how Santorum won Iowa.

  72. Mark in PA Says:

    69
    No… she’s very ambiguous.

  73. RACE 4 2016 Says:

    Conservative Plan

    1. Rally around Romney (Bunkley rule)

    2. Get out on the street, post on Facebook, fight for Conservative cause

    3. Support Rubio or McDonnell

    Cons will beat obama, even as we drag Romney over the finish line

  74. Thunder (Romney/Rubio 2012) Says:

    Nostradamus Says:
    February 17th, 2012 at 9:55 am

    67.

    Santorum is the heavy favorite according to the pundits and polls in Michigan however Romney still has an outside chance.
    ==============================================
    Most insiders think Romney will win Michigan. Santorum will do well in Western Michigan. Romney will do well around Detroit.

  75. Teemu Says:

    Percentages matters

    The difference between Romney and Santorum in the initial results in Iowa: 0.0067%

    Difference between Paul and Romney in Maine : 3.47%

    It is just biased highlighting of errors by Paul fans, actually Romney’s gap has apparently grown to over 200 in the inspection this far.

    http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0212/73015.html

  76. TBA Says:

    Well if Santorum keeps talking about contraception, not only will we lose the White House, we’ll also lose the House and Senate. But, I think Romney will win the nomination. There is no way all the stars in the GOP (Christie, McDonnell, Haley, Ayotte, Snyder, Thune, Issa, McMorris Rodgers plus strong defense of Mitt from Rubio and Paul Ryan, etc.) are going to line up behind Mitt and Mitt not be the nominee. So when Romney is the nominee, the race will be completely different in the swing states. He can take it to Obama there – there’s a reason why the Dems are still so focused on Mitt, and in many ways, going after Rubio, too. They see a likely Romney/Rubio ticket. And that’s a whole different ballgame than the current message of the primary.

  77. Mark in PA Says:

    On topic… what these polls show is that we need a nominee that the middle is ok with. The elcection will be a referendum on Obama, unless we nominate a social issues crusader who’s a general election gaffe machine. Most people in the middle will vote according to their pocket books… which favors Mitt since he is a known expert on the economy. Conservatives need to just do their own research and stop listening to talking points by Fox and talk radio… Mitt’s and Santorums views are pretty much the same on the social issues front, but Rick is much louder about them.

  78. Teemu Says:

    By the way, Ron Paul got 8 votes out of Washington County in 2008, no way he would have gotten 200 more votes than Romney there this year.

    I guess there is slight chance if all this noise causes Washington county turnout to be huge compared to what it would have been if it had been on Feb 11 and gives Paul unfair advantage, but I don’t think that is going to happen either.

  79. Smack1968 Says:

    Look who is whining now…………this is not bean bag Mitt, remember?

    On Fox News last night, Mitt Romney called foulest-of-them-all on Rick Santorum’s “Rombo” attack ad.

    “He was the first person in the campaign to run negative ads, attacking me. He did that through his campaign in South Carolina, his PAC also ran negative ads against me, and then he’s got the most negative ad I’ve seen, so far — the one attacking me for attacking him.

    Look, it’s not something I’m going to whine about. I know there’s some candidates that want to whine about the fact that you go back-and-forth and talk about the distinctions between one another.”

  80. NoMoreModerates Says:

    Rubio is a non-starter. He is a cuban ken doll.

  81. Teemu Says:

    The highest county turnout in Maine was 0.586%, most rural counties similar to Washington had lower. 0.586% of Washington’s population is 195 votes, so there is no way Ron Paul would have won it by over 200 votes on last Saturday, if he gets there 200 votes more than Romney this weekend it is because of unnatural turnout of party poopers, not natural result.

  82. Florida Conservative Says:

    78.

    All I can say is get ready for attack ad mania in Michigan against Rick, Romneys PAC I’m hearing has put up another 1.5 million across the state, so when you said Romney should go nuclear on Rick in MI, that’s what looks like is about to happen

  83. Ryan60657 Says:

    The Romney Olympics taxpayer bailout ad is quite effective. It will certainly enlighten many minds in the general election, if he makes it that far. At the very least, it will render null and void Mitt’s “I saved the Olympics” qualification.

    If taxpayers gave me $1.3 Billion, I could save a lot of things….

  84. Ryan60657 Says:

    62

    Apparently GOP in Maine does not respect democracy. Either that, or they are incompetent. Or are doing their best to rig caucus results to protect Mitt’s fragile “win”.

  85. Teemu Says:

    Ron Paul got 8 votes out of Washington County in 2008, no way he would have gotten 200 more votes than Romney there this year.

    I guess there is slight chance if all this noise causes Washington county turnout to be huge compared to what it would have been if it had been on Feb 11 and gives Paul unfair advantage, but I don’t think that is going to happen eithe

    The highest county turnout in Maine was 0.586%, most rural counties similar to Washington had lower. 0.586% of Washington’s population is 195 votes, so there is no way Ron Paul would have won it by over 200 votes on last Saturday, if he gets there 200 votes more than Romney this weekend it is because of unnatural turnout of party poopers, not natural result.

    The Maine GOP chairman understood that there was no way Paul was going to win by that county, because that would have required silly turnout, and total flip from Paul’s 7% in 2008 in that County, but too bad that he didn’t understand that Paulist wont understand this.

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