January 3, 2012

Iowa Caucuses Essential Reads + Open Thread [Update #6]

  6:00 pm

We are now less than 9 hours away from the start of the 2012 Iowa Republican Caucuses. As of the time of this post, Intrade stands at: Romney 51.0 – Paul 28.2 – Santorum 20.2.

I will update this post throughout the day with links to essential reading on stories/developments on the caucuses. Please consider this an open thread.

[Update #6 – 1 hour to go!]

Intrade: Romney to Win Iowa Caucuses: 44.1, Santorum to win: 29.8, Paul to win: 25.7

[Update #5 – 3 hours to go]

Intrade: Romney to Win Iowa Caucuses: 50.3

[Update #4 – 4 hours to go]

Intrade: Romney to Win Iowa Caucuses: 49.9

[Update #3 – 6 hours to go]

Intrade: Romney to Win Iowa Caucuses: 55.6

[Update #2 – 7 hours to go]

Intrade: Romney to Win Iowa Caucuses: 55.6

[Update #1 – 8 hours to go]

Intrade: Romney to Win Iowa Caucuses: 53.3



by Oldest
by Best by Newest by Oldest

Give em hell Mitt!


"Why we should kill the Iowa caucuses" is a column by Jonah Goldberg published in USA Today. Check it out. I agree with his basic point -- no one state should have all that power over the nomination process in every presidential election year in and year out.



IMO Iowa's real power is to vet and weed out the SoCons, New Hampshire seems to vet and weed out the FiCons, and South Carolina and Florida seem to narrow the race even further. What is wrong with that and what plan would do a better job?


Why should a state that went for Obama last time have so much influence on the GOP candidate this time?

States that went for the GOP last time, in the highest percentages, should be first.

Just sayin.



From what I've heard from some Iowan friends - many Iowans live and breathe politics. I know many farmers in the Midwest and winter is pretty much their off season when they have plenty of time to devote to talking politics and sports. Iowa could still be a purple state - depending on who our nominee is. And giving Iowa voting for Obama as a reason to eliminate their voice doesn't hold water. New Hampshire voted for Obama in the general election at a greater margin than Iowans did. Obama won Iowa 53.93% to McCain's 44.39% (9.54 point difference). Obama won New Hampshire 54.13% to McCain's 44.52% (9.61 point difference). I guess if Republicans really want one of our early states to decide the whole thing, we should let our race begin in South Carolina since they are the only early state that went Republican in the general. I wonder what the results would have been in 2008 if the race had begun there instead of having so many states that ended up voting Democrat in the general decide our fate.


I live in a super Tuesday march 6th state should i still go out and vote will my vote still matter 2 months from now?


Isn't intrade correct 99% of the time on the day voting begins? I believe Metro pointed this out back in 2007 and it turned out to be true. If true it looks like Mitt wins the Caucus tonight. Lets follow the money this election cycle and see if it calls the race(s) correctly.


53.4 for Romney to win Iowa on Intrade.


Now....55.5% on intrade..............something good is happening!!!!




#10 - I have a feeling some of these people who are betting on the race have access to internal campaign polling.

If Intrade is to be believed Romney is likely to win tonight.




Now, I REALLY want to see Sant drop below a 20% chance of winning Iowa.......he is at exactly 20% right now.


Intrade Flashback 2008 - January 3, 2008

Huckabee to win Iowa Caucus - 53.1

Romney - 36

Link: http://bb.intrade.com/intradeForum/posts/list/1927.page

Romney now at 55% on Intrade - higher than Huckabee in 2008!


Nice info, Steve T...........Thanks!!


If you check out the above link - Intrade correctly predicted Obama to win the 2008 Dem Caucus as well.

Obama 60%

Hillary 24%

Edwards 15.5%


Santorum seriously underpriced. Bought 709 shares around 20.9%.


Why not take, say the top 5 GOP voting states, and have a draw for order?

Sorry Granny T but there just isn't that much difference between 9.54 and 9.61.

And, I wasn't defending New Hampshire being one of the first either.


Even if we wanted a socially conservative state to go first every time, why should it be Iowa every time? Kansas is socially conservative too. I'm sure they could do just as well as Iowa if they had the candidates spend much of the year before the election in Kansas instead of Iowa. There are other states that could also serve this purpose.

Besides, Iowa has just as much inordinate influence over the Democrats as it does over the Republicans. The Democrats don't need Iowa to go first to winnow down their socially conservative candidates, because they usually don't have any socially conservative candidates.


I agree, Josh. It should be rotated.



To win Iowa, or to be the nominee?

Conservative Independent

This is a good site if you want to follow reporters and pundits in Iowa



22- Iowa!



Paul won't win, that's for sure.

Santorum might if he gains enough Bachmann, Perry, Gingrich

Conservative Gladiator

Rush is trying to say that socon values is something that establishment conservatives are afraid to death of...

Haha the dude is the biggest hypocrite ever and has the audacity to say that other people are afraid of values. The guy preaches but definitely doesn't practice it.


Going to be a great Craig-free day!


Just made 20 calls to Iowans on behalf of the Romney campaign. Guys, and you know who you are, if you are a Romney supporter, get on the web site and make a few calls. Make a difference today!



Well you better hope those entrance polls look pretty damn good!

Conservative Gladiator

It looks like Rush is hoping Sarah jumps in...it looks like he's trying to revive her.

Conservative Gladiator

Rush is a controlled version of Newt Gingrich.


29- I have 1000 Romney to win too


I understand the swiftboat people are unhappy with Newt appropriating that term for Romney's negative ads. Anyone get a chance to read about this?


I think Santorum's endorsement of Specter over Toomey is going to cause him promises down the road. And listening to Santorum on Glenn Beck this morning, he doesn't have a good answer for it.

He tried to argue that he had to support Specter because he would be the chairman of the judiciary committee and judges were really important. That argument makes very little sense. Basically, it is an electability argument (ironic, since his entire argument against Romney is that you shouldn't settle for a candidate because they are most electable). Santorum tried to deny that it was about electability, but nothing else makes sense. If Specter, who was one of the most Pro-Choice Senators in either party, were not the Chairman, another Republican would have been (probably Grassley, who is a lot better on life issues).


Re: 34 - problems* not promises


2 - We need a national primary.

Conservative Gladiator

Rush admitting that he is trying to label the who the "moderate" is before the MSM does hahaha. I have to put this stuff out there. Someone has to do it.


“The Eagle” Sent me a little bit of “Overnight Tracking Information” based up “another camp’s” interpretation of the numbers.

I’m just going to copy and past the body of the email.

Here it is……..and I think this is what is propping the Romney Intrade numbers in the morning..

Romney Up Mod

Paul Down Mod

Gingrich Up Slight

Santorum Up Slight

Bachman Down Mod

Perry No change

Hunstman No Change

I will give you all the information today when I receive it.

The major problem today in getting you all the good info is that “The Eagle” is working in Santorum’s camp, and they hare running no Internal numbers. But everybody is talking with everybody….you all know how it is.


39. so Romney is the only one up moderately, right?


I know what Intrade is saying, but I fear that Paul may be undervalued. It's hard to imagine Paul winning anything because he's Paul, but I'm afraid Iowa may just be crazy enough to pick Paul. We really don't know what type of support he's going to get from democrats & independents. He might get 1st, or he might get 3rd


Many of PAul's college supporters are out of state for winter break



Knowing them, they would come back to Iowa to vote.


Does anyone know what kind of safeguards Iowa uses to be sure the people who count the ballots don't tamper? Just curious.


Here's what I don't like about the same states going first every time. IA, NH, and SC have a specific religious (or non-religious in NH's case) and social culture, not especially representative of the rest of the country.

This schedule could preclude some types of candidates from ever getting a let up in the campaign and favor others. Maybe it doesn't play out like that, but it could. It seems to me it would give candidates a more fair shot by changing it up.


39 Hmmm, is the order significant?



I've seen Intrade make wild shifts during an election day.

As I recall, McCain was up on the morning of the SC primary, then there was a huge shift to Huck in the afternoon, then it shifted back to McCain around closing time for the polls.

So I don't think Intrade is super accurate in a close race until late afternoon, at the earliest. It's even trickier in a caucus because there isn't voting throughout the day, with leaked exit polls insiders can trade on.


Maybe a few would come back, but not many. Come back and caucus and wait another week for school to start?


That is how I read it. I just copy and pasted the body of email and there was no other information with it except for a personal/family paragraph.

“The Eagle” will send me info all day…that is what we have done for each other over 35 years on election night. I’m glad he sent me something early this morning….

..He sent me an email last night with his predictions and “The Eagle” had Santorum winning with 25%......so I wonder if this info he got this morning has changed his mind on his prediction?


Since there is no clear SoCon frontrunner, I agree with the majority that Romney will end up being the nominee - barring any major slip ups or "swiftboating." IF he does win, I hope he'll choose a strong consistent SoCon as his VP. Of course, I'd recommend Huckabee because adding him to the ticket would help among evangelicals and people from the south. Back when Huckabee was still a potential candidate and still in polling I was working on polling maps and "data". Even the states other candidates like Palin and Pawlenty were winning, Huckabee or Romney were usually in 2nd. Mitt did best in the East and West and Huckabee did best in the South and mid-west. I know Thunder has said he thinks a Romney/Huckabee ticket would be good, too. IF this thing gets wrapped up early, Romney might be smart to announce Huckabee as VP, Paul on his cabinet with something in the financial area, and some of the other candidates and other could have been great candidates as other cabinet members to reunite the Party quickly. Then all of those Super PAC's could be used to help beat the enemy rather than shooting our own soldiers.



I don’t think the order is significant.


Paul 1st Romney 2nd = Iowa irrelevant

Romney 1st Paul 2nd = Iowa relevant

This makes absolutely no sense.........


Great Honk!

Intrade right now for GOP Nomination:

Romney .... 80.1

Gingrich .. 5.5

Huntsman .. 4.4

Paul ...... 3.8

Santorum .. 3.4

Others .... 2.8

Mr. Inevitable?


Granny T.

I once thought Huckabee would be a great VP choice for Mitt, but as time goes on and Mike fades from the nation's consciousness, I am starting to think that if Mitt wins, he is likely to pick someone else.

The fact that Mike seems to be quite happy in his chosen career only reinforces that impression. Do you really think he wants to give that all up to enter political life again? I'm not so sure.


I don't know that Hicks has the same fire anymore.


#52: Oli: It might make some sense in this sense. If Paul wins, it doesn't matter. Not to offend Paul supporters, but Paul is never going to be the nominee. If Santorum wins, it's the same. Ergo, IA would be irrelevant. At present it looks like Romney will be the nominee; who's going to be the stop-Mitt? No one I can see. Therefore, an heretofore unexpected Mitt win in IA spurs him to a quicker victory and IA can say they picked the winner.


#54, #55 and Granny: I agree that Huck makes a good counterpoint with Mitt: They complement each other and also compensate each other. Both are good, decent smart, mature, experienced God-loving men who also love America and her Constitution.

However, I also agree with Greg and marK: Mike looks way too comfortable on Fox; he's good at it; he's making money; he has a great forum to put forth his views--and he will be there long after any election. Plus as stated, he doesn't seem to have the fire.

Mitt needs someone on fire, young and full of fight. Even tho he's still pretty inexperienced, I still like Rubio. He's a master communicator of conservative principles, VERY likeable, seems very quick and intelligent, he's a fresh face, young and full of hopeful energy. Being hispanic doesn't hurt.

Plus whoever is chosen for VP, needs to be young enough and good enough to carry the conservative torch into the future.


If Romney picks Rubio or Gov Martinez, he can virtually assure himself a victory. Why would he pick Huckabee just for the evangelical vote when he can bring in the latino vote with someone better?


Rupert Murdoch openly backs Santorum. And why not? Why would anyone in the media hope for a boring primary? That would be like a sports announcer hoping for a boring Super bowl.

Nothing good comes easily.


Despite the news leaks from Smack-Eagle, I still feel like Romney is no better than a 30%-40% chance to win Iowa. Intrade's 52%-55% feels high to me, and I would short him at that level, if I had an account.


Gallup Daily Tracker:

Ron Paul SURGE, while Mitt and Newt both tick down


“The Eagle”

2nd Email:

“We expect a high turnout for Senator Santorum in counties of Linn, Pottawattamie & Scott. We are receiving a good response from our targeted voters in those swing counties. If you are looking for one part of Iowa to gage an early potential outcome look at those three counties.

"At our Urbandale Phone Bank today we have 3 former Bachmann volunteers doing some of our outbound calls. One of the volunteers just told me that she believes Bachmann does not have one phone bank today that is operational.”


That last part can’t be true…..right?

Texas Conservative

As the results of the Iowa Caucus near, and since I have no dog in the hunt, this is who I will be rooting for tonight: http://pic.twitter.com/FVoYpWff

Willard Mittens Rombot

I'm going to predict Bachman wins for two reasons. First of all, since shes the most socially conservative, she's the least likely to lie. Since she says she's going to win... that's that. Also I saw her pastor pray for her to receive "supernatural powers", so she's pretty much got it in the bag. I know Mitt said he would win but Newt says hes a liar, so no dice there. If by some reason Bachman's "supernatural powers" don't take hold, I think that pastor's salary should be reduced to what a mormon pastor makes. Kind of like Mitts idea to reduce federal employees pay to align with private sector salaries.


Paul 1st Romney 2nd = Iowa irrelevant

Romney 1st Paul 2nd = Iowa relevant

This makes absolutely no sense………

But, Paul's views aren't consistent with the Republican Party platform.


"Iran Warns US over Carrier"

Anyone guess what Ron Paul's response would be? All US warships running out of the gulf at full speed with their tails between their legs.

Today's Iran news should be a wake-up call to people in Iowa thinking about voting for this geriatric wackadoo.


Intrade is always being quoted on here but I'm surprised that the original electronic markets, which are also updated constantly and are the granddaddy and original of political trading, is never quoted: the Iowa Electronic Market, which have been running now for 16 years. Interestingly, they are very close to Intrade:

http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/quotes/356.html - Presidential Nominee Market (Romney at 82% right now)



I have no way of knowing whether Huckabee would be willing to give up the good life to be on the bottom of a Presidential ticket. But, he should certainly be on Mitt's short list. I've liked what I've seen of Rubio. He should certainly be a strong rising star for our Party - along with Paul Ryan. But, should we force him on a national stage yet? I would like to see him debate Biden though...lol at the thought. But, what if Obama sees Romney as a real threat and decides to put Hillary on his ticket - despite risks of catching the Arkansas flu. We might need Huckabee's help for a better chance of winning. Romney/Huckabee is the only ticket I can see really giving an Obama/Clinton ticket a race.


CF, "Today’s Iran news should be a wake-up call to people in Iowa thinking about voting for this geriatric wackadoo."

AMEN!!! I read oil prices are rising because of the Iranian threat, too. Who is picking up the "Drill baby drill" mantle among not only Presidential but also Congressional candidates?


62: The question is Rick is likely not to run up the margins in the rural and polk country that huckabee did, so he needs to be go better in the east part of the state....


Gingrich is about to fail in Iowa. He knows it, so he has no problem lying up a storm on national television. He can go ahead and throw up a hail Mary knowing that being held accountable for his lies is less of a problem than the fact that polls show him coming in 4th in Iowa.


I just bought up every share I could of Bachmann winning Iowa. Didn't realize until just barely she'd been blessed with supernatural powers.


Willard Mittens Rombot

72 You're going to be rich.:)


72 So you fed the surge to 0.1% on Intrade for Bachmann?


#74 - I don't want to brag ... but I think may have been that guy. 😉


On Bachmann, first in Ames straw poll - last in Iowa - what does that say?


Granny and Matt: I'm off to Costco. If Mitt beats Santorum tonight, I will shut the heck up about the IA pastors--forever. (I make no promises about the SC pastors though). Smiley face.

I wish all you guys were at my house tonight: Pacific Standard Time (you could watch the returns and still get some sleep); 82 degrees. I would spring for amazing fish tacos especial from Rubios--and maybe some In 'n Out burgers. No booze or coffee. You bring that.


The Corner and some other blogs are reporting a leaked internal Gingrich campaign poll:

Romney - 22

Gingrich - 17

Santorum - 16

Highly suspect, however, because it shows a massive 41% undecided.


KG. I'm too far from you to join you at your house, but I'm also in Pacific Time, so I'll be with you in spirit. Hopefully, you'll join me here at Race to brag, prognosticate, or lament, as required.


78. "leaked"

nudge nudge. wink wink. eh? eh?

Yeah, right!

Newt's team is desperately trying to embolden Newt-leaning voters.


65. Rombot



Newt Gingrich, "The Great Debater":

"Mitt Romney, you're....you're....you're a LIAR! WAAAAAAH!"


#83 Except in the one debate where Mitt got Newt to admit Newt was the liar.


65 - Apparently, ignoring you makes me a bigot. I realize that you are a simple troll only trying to get a reaction, and also trying to make Romney supporters look like tools. As such a troll, you don't even really deserve to be acknowledged by any serious poster on this site.

However, for the sake of MWS, I hereby condemn you and any attempt you are making to smear all evangelicals.


Looking forward to a close caucus. Romney will pull it out in the end and yes, he will be the GOP nominee. There is no one else who could be. Intraders know.

Mitt is the man!


Wow, I hadn't seen that clip of Colmes calling Santorum "crazy" over showing his children the body of their newborn brother and saying he brought him home for the other children to "play with".

Leaving aside that he and his wife probably were crazy at the time in grief that I hope nobody has to go through, his decision may have been odd, but his reasons were totally understandable. We regularly display bodies of the deceased in our culture afterall.

Y'know, I used to have some respect for Colmes. When he was teamed with Hannity, he used to be pretty good at making his points in a respectable way. But since he left, he's gone full-on radio talk show host and partisan cockroach.


85. Jax, well said. 65. Bad troll! Bad!

I'll add my two cents for a Romney Huckabee ticket to heal all wounds and beat those other guys in the general.


LOL @ Newt today. One month ago Newt was a likely candidate for a cabinet position or at least press secretary. He's now ensured himself no significant place in the Romney administration. IMO Romney should pick Paul up for something budget related--and announce it early. Sec of Treasury maybe? That would not only put a hack-n-slash government guy in a position to do something that needs to be done, but would secure the support of libertarian and border-line third party types.


If Huckabee were to team up with Romney, there would still be a crowd that would call Huckabee a sell-out, turncoat, whatever (ahem ... Redstate). There are some people who simply won't vote for Romney.

However, if Romney wants to pull out the most people for him in Nov 2012, a Latino is the way to go. Martinez or Rubio FTW.


Matt C: How could there be 41% undecided? The numbers you give for Romney/Gingrich/Santorum total 55% -- does that mean only 4% for everybody else?


uh-oh, Romney coming down on Intrade for Iowa...


93 - 52%? That isn't coming down. He was at 49 an hour ago.


He was at 55.6% earlier today...


90. Bloodshy. Interesting idea. But, can Paul take orders? If it's not 100% pure, would he be willing to do what he's told?


95 - Not a significant change. They go up and down all day.


do you foresee any candidate closing there campaign down tonight or early tomorrow AM ?


90 - Paul at the Treasury? Ummm ... no.


99 - Yes for Bachmann. Maybe for Perry.


102 - What did she say.


I never saw the Santorum surge. Ever! But here we are on IA caucus day.

And now it will most likely be

1. Santorum 😉

2. Paul

2. Willard

4. Newt but not too far back from Paul & Willard (This is a WIN for him after absorbing $10 million of attack ads)

5. Perry dropping out Wed morn

6. Michele dropping out Wed morn

P.S. If Willard the Pandering Lib or Paul the Racist Wackjob come in 1st, IA becomes a joke to all true conservatives and Tea party supporters in SC AND FL.

Adding to my post for fun.......if Huck and Sarahcuda would of ran INSTEAD of Perry and Bachmann. (And I’m guessing Palin wins Ames while Huck sits out Ames)

It would have more likely been

1. Huck by 9+ points (Same as last time)

2. Palin (without Bachmann and Perry running)

3. Paul

3. Willard

3. Newt (with no $10 million neg ad blitz against him)

6. Santorum dropping out Wed morn :<(

Ok, back to cell phoning Iowans at home/work/play all day for the third day in a row...

Go Newt!!! SC + FL = nom


Where's Craig for Losers?



Heh, she just called her runningmate John McCain "offensive to the entire GOP" since he skipped Iowa twice.

Wonder if she had any cognition of that backhand to the person who put her on the map.


104 - Keep up the good work

Matthew Kilburn

Just heard an interesting point on Fox - how many of those attending Paul rallies actually LIVE in Iowa? Lots of college kids in Iowa...lots of college kids like Ron Paul...lots of college kids go to Ron Paul rallies...but lots of them can't vote in the caucuses.


90. A cabinet position for Paul would also neutralize any third-party run by Gary Johnson.


since we are at the REAL VOTING part of this campaign This is just a guess on my part but I guess maybe 1-2 candidates are likely to board there campaign planes and head ''home'' meaning drop out instead of to the next city Manchester NH?


and my other question is I am a super Tuesday voter will i still have a say in this process?


Bob (#92) -- exactly. I was wondering how long it would take someone to notice that.

Hey, I just report the leaks, and I did say it was highly suspect. Heh.

Matthew Kilburn

"90. A cabinet position for Paul would also neutralize any third-party run by Gary Johnson."

And which cabinet position do you suggest the man who hates any and all government has proven himself capable and qualified of running?

If Johnson wants to run third party, touting how we should legalize pot and God-only-knows what other forms of destructive substances and behaviors, then let him. He'll draw as much from Obama with that kind of platform as he will from any respectable GOP nominee.


Romney just fell to 46.5% on Intrade.


Craig, go away. We all know your integrity (which doesn't exist) will be compromised further when you support Santorum.


114. "He’ll draw as much from Obama with that kind of platform as he will from any respectable GOP nominee."

True, but if he is somehow able to co-opt the Ron Paul electorate, he'll have a much better chance of harming the GOP nominee than Obama.


Romney is back up to 47% on Intrade. He's still around 20% about both RON and RUM.



Don't focus on intrade. Profit takers and bulls can ruin your perception of what's happening.

The caucus voting has not begun yet, so there is no way anyone has information about who voted, or anything.

Wait until 8 ET or so to really take stock in what Intrade is showing.


102. Paybacks are a BITCH, baby.

Love the Bachmann dis...


#92: Matt C: How could there be 41% undecided? The numbers you give for Romney/Gingrich/Santorum total 55% — does that mean only 4% for everybody else?

Absolutely right Bob. This is shabby talking points by the media ti gin up interest. This number they site was from the DMR poll wherein 41% said they might change their minds - NOT - that they were undecided.

In all the hysteria to drive drama and ratings, the truth and facts get mangled.


Is Rush Limbaugh suggesting that Palin is going to get in the race in South Carolina? Or is he saying that everyone should jump on the band wagon of whoever she endorses after Iowa?


I was really confused by this.



I remember in 2004 when Bush nearly went to zero after the exit poll raw data was leaked.


Here's an interesting observation (opinion?) from ONE Iowa resident:

People who are vocal are talking Santorum or Paul, but they are a minority. The majority aren’t saying anything. To me, that means, “We’re voting for Romney, but not talking about it.”


2 quick questions that i have going forward AFTER TONIGHT:

since we are at the REAL VOTING part of this campaign This is just a guess on my part but I guess maybe 1-2 candidates are likely to board there campaign planes and head ”home” meaning drop out instead of to the next city Manchester NH?

and my other question is I am a super Tuesday voter will i still have a say in this process?


It bugs me that it looks like the media will try to spin any Romney results by comparing it to last round's results.

So, anything less than 25% (is that what it was) is going to be spun as a LOSS since he's "been campaigning in Iowa for 5 years and actually lost votes".



123. If that confused you, you apparently are too befuddled in your milk toast moderation to comprehend how regular people speak. No, Limbaugh is not suggesting Palin is going to jump in the race.

Good grief, take a remedial reading course if you're that illiterate.


Media is also hinting that they'll spin any win by Mitt as "“settling for Romney”


128. Tele, could you write that again in smaller words? I'm confused.



Thanks for the invite. It's 29 degrees here now. I've got ribs smoking outside. Going to watch my beautiful 6th grader play volleyball at 6:00, then come home and waste time on Iowa.


122. Interestingly, the table at the bottom half of that page currently shows 1st: Bachmann, 2nd: Other, 3rd: Roemer.

Matthew Kilburn

In other news....I'm going to have to send some of you back to elementary math class - I've just put all the predictions into my spread sheet, and some of you managed to predict vote totals of 105% - 108%.


133. That's because Paul supporters will vote twice! They'll change coat and coat and try again. :)



No, they will spin it as Mitt winning because Conservatives are split.

And if he gets less than 26%, it will be because he has a ceiling...



127 - Yep, Mitt will have to place first and beat his 2008 number of voters to get any positive press.

Matthew Kilburn

No, MassCon, you added up to 100%. As did, I admit, the vast majority of people.


128 - Okay genuis ... what is he trying to say.

Thunder (Romney -The only sane canidate)

Keith Price Says:

January 3rd, 2012 at 3:53 pm

135. That, too.


Not me either, I did my pluses and minuses before I hit submit.


133. MK: please call out those who gave vote totals >100% so we can subject them to the collective ridicule of the Board!


I'm going to put my analyst hat on for a minute here. I apologize for the long post.

As I think a lot of people know, Romney gets basically what amounts to a bye week in this year's GOP presidential bracket. Romney is the moderate in the race and as such gets a free pass to the next round. He's the choice of the moderate wing of the party, the establishment, the status-quo DC/NY insiders. Please note, this isn't a criticism of Romney but rather a statement of the facts as yours truly sees them. :) The only thing that could potentially hurt Romney is if he finishes significantly lower than expectations, e.g. under 20%.

Such a scenario, interestingly, is Huntsman's only chance - he needs Romney wounded entering New Hampshire; he needs Romney to come out of Iowa as he did in 2008 - damaged so that Huntsman, as McCain did, can sweep up those never fully on board with Romney as well as Independents who are legion in the NH primary.

Ron Paul is his own bracket, not competing with any of the others for votes as his support is locked up; no one is going to shift from Paul to one of the others or vice-versa. Thus, where ever Paul finishes tonight (and in all subsequent contests) is largely irrelevant. Say the results tonight are 1.Romney, 2.Paul, 3.Santorum, 4.Perry - the actual results should be viewed as 1.Romney, 2.Santorum, 3.Perry.

What's most important tonight is the so-called "winnowing of the field." The other side of the bracket is represented by the conservatives (or those running as conservatives) - Perry, Gingrich, Santorum and Bachmann. Where each of them finish relative to one another, not relative to Romney or Paul, is what counts. If all 4 are bunched together and separated by only say 6 or 7 points from first to fourth, we might not see the expected winnowing. If, however, as I expect one or two of the four finishes further back of the other two (or three) someone will drop out.

I expect at least one of those who will finish further back to be Bachmann; she's made too many mistakes, too many gaffes and comes across as the least presidential candidate in the field. It does appear from what I've read and heard out of Iowa, that caucus-goers ever really warmed up to her. I say Bachmann finishes last of those who've seriously contested in Iowa. She will take a few days off before announcing the end of her campaign on Thursday or Friday.

I think Perry is going to surprise tonight. Iowa is retail-heavy and Perry excels in retail politic. Moreover, he has solid conservative bonafides sans a minor issue here or there (Gardasil, maybe immigration) and has been a very successful, two-term governor. His campaign has improved and he, perhaps more anyone else in the field, can claim a long record as a so-called three-legged conservative.

Santorum will perform solidly but unspectacularly. I think he finishes behind Perry, Romney and Paul but ahead of Bachmann. How close he is to Perry in that third/fourth place slot is what will count. I think he's got the edge in the evangelical vote and pro-life Catholic vote, but not nearly to the extent that Huckabee had in 2008 or Pat Robertson did in 1988. I think that vote will largely split between Santorum, Perry and Bachmann.

Gingrich is the wild card. My gut says he finishes just ahead of Bachmann, a ways back of Perry and Santorum. But this is just a gut feeling and not based on anything I've read or heard. Newt in recent days appears tired and somewhat withdrawn. No doubt the attacks have hurt him and without a blow-away debate performance or a very recent debate where he could have had a chance to shine, he's fallen back. However, I see Newt staying even if he comes in fifth tonight. There are six debates this month, two each before NH, SC and FL. I think Newt tries to stage a comeback by shining in the debates against a winnowed field that claims Bachmann this week and perhaps one or two others in the next two to three weeks.

So, all of that said, here are my predictions.

1. Romney 22%

2. Paul 20%

3. Perry 19%

4. Santorum 17%

5. Gingrich 12%

6. Bachmann 7%

7. Huntsman 2%

8. Others 1%

Thus we get 3 tickets out of Iowa - Romney, Perry and Santorum with Newt along for the ride hopeful he can perform strongly in the debates and over-take Santorum in both New Hampshire next week and down south later this month, where Santorum has little to fall back upon.

I think tonight Perry re-emerges as the top candidate in the conservative bracket and the one best positioned to take on Romney from the moderate bracket.

Willard Mittens Rombot

I hate to whole "ceiling" BS too. If I invited 6 or 7 people over for dessert and I got one forth of the pie, isn't that good? Do folks not understand math? (I'm not making fun of Rick Perry's grades for all of you troll police)

Matthew Kilburn

Here are our arithmetical deviants:

OhioRepub - 107%

Sir David - 102%

Three or four others predicted 101%, but I think we can write those off as rounding errors.

Revise your projections, gentlemen, and I'll update my spreadsheet.



Apparently, everyone in the GOP thinks Romney is the worst candidate, so it means his ceiling is 25%.



Thanks for doing all that. Good stuff, brother.


Mitt still 50%

Paul & Santorum at 25 each




Nobody from other camps moves into or out of the Paul camp??? How then did Paul double his support in Iowa in one month?



Romney is the moderate in the race and as such gets a free pass to the next round. He’s the choice of the moderate wing of the party, the establishment, the status-quo DC/NY insiders. Please note, this isn’t a criticism of Romney but rather a statement of the facts as yours truly sees them.

Your statement of the facts is incorrect. Romney might be perceived as the moderate in the race by some. But his campaign has, objectively, been in the top 2 or 3 most conservative throughout the race.


149. democrats and independents


143- no way Perry is ahead of Santorum

Of Gingrich maybe.


144. "If I invited 6 or 7 people over for dessert and I got one forth of the pie, isn’t that good?"

If the object is to eat as much pie as possible, and every time your slice is at most 25%, even as you invite fewer and fewer people over for dessert, everyone else you invite over will eventually have larger and larger slices. Finally, when it's just you and one other guest, you'll still have 25% of the pie, while your guest ends up with a 75% slice.


Ah well, I'll give Matthew something for his spreadsheet:

Romney 26%

Santorum 24%

Paul 21%

Perry 12%

Newt 9%

Bachmann 7%

Huntsman 1%


What if you round to the nearest 5.0%? You could end up with those numbers. 😛


153 - Except that isn't the case at all. Romney still has the largest piece, as he has from the beginning.


My best guess is:

Romney - 24%

Santorum - 22%

Paul - 22%

Perry - 12%

Bachmann - 9%

Noot - 9%

Huntsman - 1%

Other - 1%


143. "...statement of the facts as yours truly sees them" = statement of pure opinion


My final prediction:

Romney in a squeaker

Romney - 23%

Santorum - 22

Paul - 19

Gingrich - 15

Perry - 13

Bachmann - 7

Huntsman/other - 1


149. You're right. There have been many who've moved into the Paul camp. People with libertarian leanings who don't buy the whole platform have moved over to Paul in their fear that drastic measures are needed. However, libertarian purists make up a very small % of the the population (and less than 1/2 of Paul's support in Iowa). He has a very strong 7-10% following and a squishy 10-15% that are settling on him, but might leave. I think it's harder for Paul to win voters and it's harder to pull voters out of Paul's camp than it is with most candidates. That's my best guess of the current Paul scenario.

90. As for my idea of Mitt giving Paul a cabinet position... Doing so (and making it known in summer 2012) would bring many additional voters into the GOP tent. I don't think Paul is perfectly aligned ideologically w/Mitt in any area, but I believe Mitt could get Paul to play some ball if Mitt was willing to give him a stronger platform to push certain aspects of libertarianism from. I think this would be a brilliant tactical move. Additionally, I think that while Mitt & Paul disagree about several things, they have a mutual respect for each other and I think they could make it work for the great benefit of conservatism, libertarianism & the GOP.


Very interesting that the media, at Newt's behest, are only focusing on the tough ads Romney's PAC ran against Newt and not even mentioning all the negative stuff Paul has run about Newt.

Gee, I wonder why?



Did you take all the guesses from the other post with like 450 comments? If so you have a heck of alot of time on your hands....and i am extremely interested in the results. Last check I made there were only 7 of us picking santorum to win. I like being part of the few....my screen name also consists of a guy who dropped out 8 months ago though, so what do I know?

Matthew Kilburn

I did....and....it didn't take that long, surprisingly. Maybe three hours or so.


Trending more :

Paul 30%

Santorum 20%


Obama to release Taliban leaders from Gitmo and start negotiating with the Taliban:




Wow nice shot from Romney sure to get air time with the pop culture reference lol.



Thanks for the reminder that we have a naive loon in the White House.


Well, Killburn, your results ought to end up in an FPP

Willard Mittens Rombot


Watch Mitts "ceiling" rise once the other winners run out of money and their lack of preparation catches up to them. (of course they could always file a lawsuit just to make it fair)


#123 Jax,

Limbaugh is like Donald Trump. He gets off on thinking that the world is eagerly awaiting his opinion. The truth is he jumped the shark some time ago and I don't know of anybody who still listens to him for anything more than comic relief. While Jonathan Martin may have asked those questions, Rush's response really doesn't matter to anyone seriously watching this race. Rush is an entertainer and a comedian with an ego on par with that of Mr. Trump. He is far from the driving force of conservatism that he imagines himself to be.


questions that i have going forward AFTER TONIGHT:

since we are at the REAL VOTING part of this campaign This is just a guess on my part but I guess maybe 1-2 candidates are likely to board there campaign planes and head ”home” meaning drop out instead of to the next city Manchester NH?

and my other question is I am a super Tuesday voter will i still have a say in this process?


Did anyone else see on Drudge? Iowa voters who read Drudge, picked Ron Paul at 32%. That's who they said they were supporting.


172 - Totally scientific poll, I'm sure


# greg Says:

and my other question is I am a super Tuesday voter will i still have a say in this process?


No, we will finish off the anti-Romney's here in Florida, and it will be all over. :)


# wateredseeds Says:

January 3rd, 2012 at 4:47 pm

Did anyone else see on Drudge? Iowa voters who read Drudge, picked Ron Paul at 32%. That’s who they said they were supporting.


online poll, need I say more.



Paul won an internet poll? Shockface time.


Wow, I just read the Santorum v. Limited Government article (link in Update #3 in this FPP). An eye-opener to be sure. I now add Santorum and update my list:

Paul = Small Government Libertarian

Romney = Big Government Republican

Obama = Bigger Government Democrat

Newt = HUGE Government Republican

Santorum = ENORMOUS Government Statist

I'm not quite sure where Perry fits in (probably between Romney and Obama), nor where Bachmann fits (probably between Obama and Newt). No clue on H-man.

Matthew Kilburn

"Did anyone else see on Drudge? Iowa voters who read Drudge, picked Ron Paul at 32%. That’s who they said they were supporting."

You want to see my shock-and-surprise face that an online poll put Ron Paul on top? His supporters are notorious for spamming those things...the same with straw polls. If nothing else, it will be great when Ron Paul is no longer in politics, because we can go back to assigning appropriate meaning to those things.


Ryan60657 Says:

I’m not quite sure where Perry fits in


any kind of government if you can afford to pay my price.



It only had about 3000 votes. So not a very big sample.

Matthew Kilburn

"Small Government Libertarian"

...its the libertarian part that is the problem. Social Darwinism in disguise, with disastrous consequences for all involved.


It wasn't an ONLINE poll. It was a drudge iowa readers poll. You can't vote in it. However, there is an online poll still up at drudge.


180 - The size of the sample has nothing to do with it. And you can vote more than once on it.


# Matthew Kilburn Says:

January 3rd, 2012 at 4:55 pm

“Small Government Libertarian”

…its the libertarian part that is the problem. Social Darwinism in disguise, with disastrous consequences for all involved.


You know, if it wasn't for Ron Paul position on foreign affairs, I could consider supporting him. Going back on the Gold Standard could also be a problem only because to much time and printed money has gone on.


# wateredseeds Says:

January 3rd, 2012 at 4:54 pm


It only had about 3000 votes. So not a very big sample.


Obviously you have never taken a class in statics. 1000 is consider the best sample size (of course being online simply says that out of those who are willing to go online, Paul does best).


"4. Newt but not too far back from Paul & Willard (This is a WIN for him after absorbing $10 million of attack ads."

Yes. And my Broncos won on Sunday against the Chiefs if you just take into account that they absorbed an interception, a fumble and passing percentage of 25%...


182 - You have no idea what you are talking about.



1000 is consider the best sample size

What if the population is 500?


#185 Thunder: Yes, but if it's just a poll of Drudge readers, it's not necessarily a representative sample.


186 - A fellow Broncos fan? Awesome


#171 greg: Do you have to decide now whether you are going to vote on Super Tuesday? Why not wait and see how the race shakes out between now and then?


My best guess:

Paul 24%

Romney 24%

Santorum 23%

Gingrich 10%

Perry 7%

Bachmann 7%

Huntsman 3%

Roemer 1%

Other 1%


Sample size is only one factor in determining the accuracy of a poll. It is much more important that the sample be random and unbiased. You can't get that among drudge readers.

It was likely just an aggregation of votes from I.P. addresses in Iowa in the poll he has up above.


I find this article hilarious. According to Newt, this article makes Santorum's own nephew a drugged up, indecent American. XD



I voted in it from CA....


190, Jax, good that means we will be in equal misery on Sunday. :-) Well hopefully not, but it's hard to be optimistic about beating the Steelers defense after getting 3 points against the Chiefs. On another note 11 weeks ago I absolutely did not think we'd go 8-8 and get into the playoffs, so it's all good.


Ok folks... it's 5:17 in IA. People are getting home from work.


Recent movement on Intrade:

Romney 44

Santorum 30

Paul 26


"The Eagle" 3rd email

"We have averaged 900 outbound calls per hour, and we are now approaching 6500 total calls for the day. Our affirmitive rate has gone up in the last 90 minutes on our connected responses. This increased affirmitive percentage is proabably in large part due to Senator Santorum's larger strength among voters who are of working age, than the Seniors, who made up a larger percentage of our connected calls ealier in the day."


The rest of the email was out of context jargon.

I will post/copy/paste here at RACE42012 whatever "The Eagle" sends me as the night goes on.

None of it so far has been eye popping, but it's always interesting to catch a glimpse of what my buddy is thinking is important at the time...real time.


196 - Steelers have some key injuries though. Winning isn't completely out of the range of possibilities, though probably pretty close. It was an odd season. Great to get into the playoffs, but Tebow isn't the answer for the future.



(CNN) – Before the first ballots are cast in Iowa Tuesday night, Mitt Romney can claim a small lead in the race to win the Republican presidential nomination.



#198 Darn you MassCon 😉 😀


200, Yeah we could win, I'm still hoping. Tebow has sure been aweful the last few games, but the organization would take a lot of flack if they cut him, he was already wildly popular with the fan-base and now we've gotten to the play-offs for the first time in seven years. Time will tell.


Santorum supporters should be hopeful that it's still "Craig for Newt," it looks like Santorum has not yet reached his peak.


Sorry for the bad math. It was my worst SAT score. 😀


wow intrade now 41/30/28


romney is down huge on in trade today . At 38.5


So what's the reasoning for the tightening of the Intrade percentage? Are the traders getting cold feet about Romney? Or did something happen on the campaign trail?


romney is dropping like a rock


dont know...paul hit bottom at around 22 mid afternoon and has been coming up since


the iowa gop is expecting 135,000 voters



And now back to 46%.


HA! Romney is back up to 46%!! So :-PPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPP to all of you Romnots!


My comment on #200 is awaiting moderation.

Did I do something wrong?


Talking sports now? Cool. I found another PPP poll that I'm with the majority on. I'll try to find the link but the title was something like "Packers are the real American Team." :)



Not to my knowledge. Profit taking, perhaps. Also, Mitt's press has been less than favorable today.


Profit taking ... people are getting out before entrance polls mix things up.


Man, the investors on intrade are going crazy. Romney keeps going up and then down and then up again. WHAT is going on????


Okay, I found the PPP blog article. This will probably go into moderation for posting the link but oh well.

I really liked how they worded this paragraph: (Emphasis mine)

Finally we also asked a straight up 'horse race' style question about whether people like the Cowboys or Packers better. The Packers come out ahead 49-28 on that one. In an era of unprecedented political divisiveness liking the Packers better than the Cowboys is something Americans across the political spectrum can agree on- Democrats prefer the Packers 44-26, Republicans do 60-29, and independents do 44-30.



romney is at 39.5 again


There isn't much volume on Intrade, you know. Typically 5 or 6 shares being bought or sold at once.

Someone has 882 shares of Gingrich and is trying to sell, and cannot find a buyer.

Romney, Paul, and Santorum are INCREDIBLY lightly-traded right now.


And now at 43.5%.

It just last minute shuffling. He is still clearly in the lead.


Intrade is overrated IMO.


LOL... Someone has 3800 shares of Cain To Win Iowa, and cannot sell.



People have 5318 shares of TPAW TO WIN IOWA and cannot sell.

I'm guessing these people collectively lost $50,000.



#218 People are messing with things. Our local talk show Roger Hedgecock wants listeners to email votes. He's been infamously anti-Mitt. I told my son and he put it on Cougarboard, that BYU sports talk site; it has about 1000 people, I believe. Now apparently, Mitt is way ahead of the Ron Paul people on Roger's site.

Anybody that wants to play this game: Rodger Hedgecock.com in San Diego.


just profit taking like Jax said. Once the entrance polls start leaking Intrade will be of little use.


Lots of volume for Perry on intrade today, oddly enough.


227 - To the contrary, once entrance polls leak, it will be a lot of use. It will tell all of us who don't see those leaked polls what is going on.


Jax #34 - I wonder if it didn't have something to do with the fact that Specter had been a big help in Santorum's original Senate campaign in 1994. In other words, Santorum felt that he owed Specter.

Not saying that it was the right decision, but over the long run, it didn't really hurt. Specter was fine on Supreme Court nominees. The GOP would still have gotten creamed in '06 and '08. Toomey might have lost in '04, especially since he was the right-wing primary candidate that year, and so might have had a harder time with swing voters than he did when he was the consensus nominee in 2010. And now Toomey is in the Senate.



In November, Terry Branstad predicted Romney would win Iowa.





Nate Silver is wagering a steak dinner with someone right now on his twitter account:

Nate Silver has Santorum.



Jimmer vor VP!


232 - I'm still pissed he didn't endorse Romney.



Specter was fine on Supreme Court nominees.

Tell that to Bork. Or the tons of district and especially Circuit nominations that he let the Dems hold up.

Specter messed up the lower courts pretty good.


Massachusetts Conservative,

That news should send Mitt's numbers on INTRADE skyrocketing......unless.....unless...

....Gov. Brandstad is playing the expectation game and trying to screw Mitt...



231 - You are probably right, but the point is that his explanation is terrible. Specter is scum (I know from personal experience). Supporting Specter is a black mark on his record and he needs to come up with a better explanation for it, or just admit he made a mistake.


220, Interesting poll Granny T. I thought this item was particularly interesting from an identity politics standpoint:

"-Tim Tebow is viewed favorably by 68% of Republicans but only 39% of Democrats. Just to put those numbers into some context, none of the Republican Presidential candidates are even seen positively by 68% of Republicans. He's more popular than any of them.

27% of GOP voters pick him as their favorite QB, putting him in first place by a mile, but among Democrats he's only tied for 6th at 9%. The Mannings are the preferred quarterbacks of Democratic voters. 13% pick Eli as their favorite and Peyton has the best net favorability with them at +39 (49/10)"

We may not like identity politics but such a big partisan gap over a QB would suggests it's alive and well.



Maybe Branstad is gaming Intrade! HA!


238 - You and your nonsensical conspiracy theories.


BREAKING NEWS FOX NEWS CARL Cameron basically nobody can lock up this nomination till like end Arpil AT earliest? is that true


240 - Very alive and well. I can't believe the way some of the sports commentators have trashed Tebow for his religious talk.

To be completely honest, I find it a little over the top too, but it isn't something that impacts my perception of him as a person or player. I realize he is bad without having to let his religion influence me. 😉



I was joking...relax.


243 - No


245 - So was I ... settle down




Since when is Carl Cameron's dumb opinion breaking news?


When did Santorum & Gingrich flip on abortion?


Watching foxnews through all of this has been entertaining.


I think Josiah's prediction in #192 should be disqualified (if it's close to winning), or at least have an asterisk attached. Wasn't the deadline for submitting predictions last night at midnight eastern?


when do you all think the nomination is locked up?


243. Fox News has a vested interest in keeping the campaign going without a winner for as long as possible.


Very funny commentary on RUM's campaign after a bizarre closing argument about "cloture".

The “Santorum surge” in recent days has little to do with the candidate himself and everything to do with the fact that he is the last man standing after voters discarded all the rest. There’s little time left to scrutinize Santorum before the Iowa vote — and in his case, that’s an exceedingly lucky thing. Given more time in the spotlight, he would reveal himself as a hard-edged Dan Quayle.



Where is that event? Santorum is going to win some highly-Evangelical counties by a LOT.

Mitt is going to win Eastern IA by a LOT.


186. LOL


I'm thinking Romney very well finish 2nd or 3rd now. After reading several articles coming out today. I hope I'm wrong.


Very interesting the ABC news staff predictions for tonight (see link on update #6 on FPP):

9 predicted Mitt to win

2 predict a Santorum win

2 predict a Paul win

Most picked Newt to finish 4th or 5th; one had Bachmann in front of Newt (i.e., a 6th place finish).


250 - I think you mean nauseating


I always thought Santorum COULD win this thing, but I put Romney at 1st because I thought a Romney win was slightly more likely.


258 - What articles? What are they saying?


I don't think Romney would mind a Santorum win. He would be the easiest of the RomNots to beat.


Gingrich is a scumbag. I just thought I would remind everyone of that. The latest link about his comments on Romney is pathetic.


What is intrade at?


Santorum is definitely edging up. Paul & Santorum are now in the upper 20s & Mitt is @ 41 on intrade.

264. "Gingrich is a scumbag."

Yes he is. He went negative before Mitt & then he couldn't handle the fire. Now he's stooping to the classic no-nos of politics w/desperate personal insults, demeaning himself as he attempts to demean Mitt.

Matthew Kilburn

Don't mind me....testing:

Rank Name Total % Off

1) Micah 71%

2) Jaxemer11 95%

3) Jack Bauer's Dad 96%

4) rnst_p 98%

5) Sioux County 98%

6) criggs 98%

7) shane 99%

8) Matt coulter 99%

9) Matt "MWS" 99%

10) Mark in PA 99%

11) Thunder 99%

12) Kevin W 99%

13) Heath 99%

14) RA 100%

15) Johnathan 100%

16) K.J. 100%

17) Greg 100%

18) Alaska Jake 100%

19) Boomer 100%

20) Sean 100%

21) Jrcutler 100%

22) XorGate 100%

23) Jared C 100%

24) Matthew Kilburn 100%

25) Mass Con 100%

26) Michael 100%

27) Matt Miller 100%

28) Jerald 100%

29) SixMom 100%

30) Ryan Gleason 100%

31) Mushroom 100%

32) Econ Grad Student 100%

33) AdaNevada 100%

34) swint 100%

35) jaaron 100%

36) Matt Y. 100%

37) T.C. Robinson 100%

38) Andrew Ryan 100%

39) Tim 100%

40) Smack1968 100%

41) Anthony Dalke 100%

42) Huckarubio 100%

43) corep 100%

44) Ryan60657 100%

45) asparagus 100%

46) John 100%

47) Aaron 100%

48) Chickentrooper 100%

49) ogrepete 100%

50) Gracian 100%

51) Still Hurting 100%

52) jay 100%

53) HowardB 100%

54) bumskyred 100%

55) Ci2Eye 100%

56) Pablo 100%

57) DavidG 100%

58) Jman 100%

59) aspire 100%

60) John 100%

61) Alex Knepper 100%

62) MBS 100%

63) Freddy Ardanza 100%

64) Abe 100%

65) Ohio Joe 100%

66) Ryan 100%

67) DSKinner 100%

68) OSUPhantom 100%

69) jarvis 100%

70) Thomas Alan 100%

71) Kyle 101%

72) Jeff Y 101%

73) GetReal 101%

74) aj rabin 101%

75) Sir David 102%

76) OhioRepub 107%


244, Well if Tebow doesn't make it as a QB, he should consider a career as a politician in a red state, this poll would he could do quite well. :-)


Why does Tebow get so much controversy? Are the libs afraid their kids might look up to him instead of some drunken womanizer, dog fighter, or gambler type? :roll

I loved the Baptist preacher, "minister of defense" that used to lead the Packers in prayer before a game. But, Reggie might have looked a little to intimidating to make fun of. 😉


Why are we cluttering this very important CAUCUS thread with posts about Tebow?


I find it interesting that the man who sat down with Nancy Peolsi would describe Romney as the least conservative. In my mind, once you advocate Carbon emission tax on the coach with Nancy, you lose all of your Conservative credentials.




Religious people love Tebow, and anti-religious zealots hate him.

He's at the center of the cultural battles over religion.


and...there isn't too much happening at this second. VERY soon it will be all politics.


Massachusetts Conservative - Jax,

There are a couple of Eastern Iowa counties that Mitt won over Huck in 2008, that he may not win this time.....but it still might not mean Mitt is going to lose the whole state.

Santorum will probably run better against Romney in the very Northeastern part of the state. Dubuque county is a county in which Santorum might beat Mitt tonight, but it doesn't mean Mitt will have a bad night. Dubuque county, and others up in the Northeast have a decent chunk of Catholics who like to shoot things.

So I'm giving you a SMACKDADDY warning..you might see Dubuque, an Eastern Iowa county fall to Santorum, but that might not mean defeat for Mitt.


266. What is that ranking for? I like to be #1 for SOME things. 😉


The truest thing about that RedState article from Erick Erikson is this bit:

I’m at the Santorum event tonight in Iowa. Nate Silver at the New York Times says we should not be surprised by a Santorum win, and I would not be surprised by a Santorum win. It is very possible based on the strength of evangelicals showing up across Iowa today to organize and get to the caucuses tonight..

These people really, really do not want Mitt Romney. However misguided I may think it is, because others have flamed out they are rallying to Santorum as the alternative.

And from his second article:

I can confirm from the ground that most everyone thinks Mitt Romney is going to win, but there are a heck of a lot of engaged evangelicals on the ground today doing last minute work to help Santorum and also to stop Romney.

I was there last time and we saw "a lot of engaged evangelicals...to stop Romney" aka the Mormon. We'll see if it happens again.

Matthew Kilburn

"What is that ranking for?"

That is the ranking of caucus predictions from the thread yesterday/this morning. The lower the %, the closer you got to the actual results.

Of course, if you didn't offer a projection for a certain candidate, it gets listed as 0% - which exactly matches the values of the current results...0% for everyone. The current value next to each name represents the total value of their prediction.

Of course, the further you are from 100% at the moment, the further you will be from the actual result...and the lower you will be in the ranking when I start updating it.


I was watching FOXNEWS a few minutes ago and it looks like they will be comparing how Mitt did 4 years ago to how he does tonight. Someone on here called that way earlier today. I wonder if Brett was reading it here?


"Keith Price Says:

January 3rd, 2012 at 6:40 pm

Why are we cluttering this very important CAUCUS thread with posts about Tebow?"

Because I'm bored, is the short answer. But quit whining this post will a gazillion comments at the end of the night, with horse-race details, general political bashing, and probably a debate about religio-political debate thrown in for good measure. I little talk about Tebow isn't going to clutter things up that much.



and…there isn’t too much happening at this second. VERY soon it will be all politics.

Exactly, so imagine my DISMAY after seeing several new posts only to discover they're just about Tebow! :( I was hoping for a little somethin' somethin' for my addiction!



hey guys I'm a long time reader and first time poster here!! Just thought I'd start posting; im a 17 guy fascinated by politics and of course, being young, a RP supporter (duh!). But I wouldn't mind any of the other candidates other then ol' newter and Mittens would have to be my number 2! But I know its probably too late but if youll be nice and take my iowa predictions... its not like i have any random info i wouldnt have had yesterday... here it goes

1. Ron Paul- 22.7%

2. Mitt Romney 22.1%

3. Santy- 20.9%

4. Rick Perry- 13.3%

5. Newt- 11%

6. Michelle- 7%

7. Huntsman 2%

8. All Others 1%



Someone on here called that way earlier today.

Hey, that was ME! :)

Matthew Kilburn

I won't add anything else into my spread sheet - feel free to keep track on your own and let us know where you stand....



fair enough!

Matthew Kilburn

Here's how I'm calculating the "total % off":

Absolute value of (result for candidate X - prediction for candidate X) + Absolute value of (result for candidate Y - prediction for candidate Y) + Absolute value of (result for candidate Z - prediction for candidate Z)...and so on.


If anybody is interested... Mitt is tanking on intrade; down to 37.5 %... RP and Santorum pretty much tied for 2nd hovering around 29-30%. Anybody thank some info could have leaked out??


T minus 5 minutes.

I gotta get a life.


Matthew Kilburn,

Maybe I should have gotten in on this. lol Do you have a prize for the "winner"?


Everyone ready for a Romney win?


#269..Granny T

I don't like the attacks on Tebow either.

Similar things happen everytime a BYU quarterback goes to the NFL.

Libs really are afraid of people of faith...


New results open thread going live in 5 minutes. Romney is at 40.9 on Intrade as of right now.


5 min

Here we go!!!!!


Anybody thank some info could have leaked out??

Maybe they've seen lots of young people filing into the caucus centers???


Interesting vote total from Drudge Iowa readers.


PAUL 33.67%


ROMNEY 20.47%


PERRY 7.38%

Matthew Kilburn

"Matthew Kilburn,

Maybe I should have gotten in on this. lol Do you have a prize for the “winner”?"

Ask the FPPs.


I'm such a dork. :). Is anyone else as excited as I am? T-minus 3 minutes.


CNN wins the goof graphic award. What the hell is that?

Sojourner Truth

Everyone ready for a Romney win?



I heard Ron Paul has 98% of the vote.


Sojourner, ever the drama queen.


# Boomer Says:

January 3rd, 2012 at 6:55 pm

T minus 5 minutes.

I gotta get a life.


Me too, been waiting almost 4 years for today.


My prediction is that everyone who says Iowa always overturns the conventional wisdom will be proven wrong. Because theirs has now become the conventional wisdom. Um, so I guess those who say the conventional wisdom will be overturned and the conventional wisdom will prevail, thereby proving that wrong is right and losing is winning.


And ..... we're off.

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