2012 Electoral College Projection

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Electoral Vote Final Prediction:
Obama: 290       Romney: 248


Since we began the Race42012 electoral map updates back in May, Governor Mitt Romney has never led when there are no tossups. The question as we approached Election Day over the past week, then, was whether or not he would finally take the lead this morning in our final prediction. As difficult as this is to post, reality has to be faced: the final prediction is that President Barack Obama will succeed in his bid to be re-elected tomorrow.

On Wednesday or Thursday of last week, I began really thinking through what this final prediction was going to look like – and as I began looking at all the polls, advertising, campaign schedules, and other data available, I began to realize it all pointed in one direction: unless something changed in favor of Governor Romney, President Obama was going to win this race. And since Thursday, things seem to have broken not in favor of Romney, but against him. State polls shifted to Obama. National polls which once showed a 5-7 point Romney lead shrunk to show a tied race. Stops in states like Virginia and Florida were added to Romney’s schedule late when those were states he was already supposed to have sewn up. Perhaps most of all, President Obama’s job approval rating has rebounded to sit at or above 50% in five different surveys (51% in Rasmussen and CNN, 50% in ABC/WaPo, FOXNews, and CBS News). In fact, in every recent national survey, Obama’s job approval rating is now at 49% or higher.

A sitting President with an approval rating of 49% or above has never lost re-election in modern history.

In addition to this, more states are falling further out of Romney’s reach as he tours the country on his closing argument tour. Colorado, which sported an R+1.0 lead among five polls last week, has now fallen to O+1.0 with five new polls. Wisconsin, which was just O+1.0 last week, has now slipped to O+3.5 among seven polls — with Obama hitting the magical 50% mark in the average. In Ohio last week, four polls showed the race at an exact tie. This week, only one does while nine others show Obama taking a 2-6 point lead.

Any momentum Governor Romney had gained from his debate performances throughout October seems to have completely stalled as the calendar page turned to November – and not only stalled, began falling in the wrong direction.

At this point, you may be thinking, “You’re forgetting one key thing: the state polls are no good because of crazy party ID splits.” Normally, I would agree with you. However, we are now less than one day out from Election Day. If pollsters were going to adjust their samples to protect their fragile reputations, this past week would have been the time to do it — and they didn’t.

Think about it this way. In 2004, all of the Democrats were crowing and complaining about the party ID splits in public surveys. There is no way the party ID split could be even, they said. John Kerry will win because all the polls are wrong. But they weren’t all wrong, and Bush won.

In 2008, Republicans were raising cane about the party ID split of public surveys. There is no way the Democrats could have such a huge advantage in party ID split, they said. Barack Obama won’t win (or won’t win by much) because all the polls are wrong. But they weren’t all wrong, and Obama won big.

This campaign cycle, we have spent months upon months ridiculing, scoffing, and complaining about party ID splits. But when it counted most, when the pollsters had it all on the line, nothing changed. That tells me we are in trouble, both short-term for this election, and long-term for the future of this country.

If that doesn’t convince you, look at it another way. In order for Mitt Romney to win Colorado, 4 out of 5 polls taken in the last week have to be flat out wrong. In order for Romney to win Ohio, 9 out of 11 polls have to be wrong. (One shows Ohio tied, and the last one is done by the firm who showed Todd Akin still winning in Missouri.) In order for Romney to win Iowa, 4 out of 6 polls have to be wrong (including the Iowa gold standard DMR poll). In order for Romney to win Wisconsin, 6 out of 7 polls have to be wrong.

I am not in the business of declaring that all the polls are wrong. Not after 2004 and 2008. And guess what — in CO, OH, IA and WI, the poll in each state that was actually tied or showed Romney winning was Rasmussen.

Either Rasmussen is wrong this time around, or everybody else is.

If these were all media pollsters with agendas to drive, that would be one thing. But these include private polling organizations such as SurveyUSA, We Ask America, Pulse Opinion Research (Rasmussen), and Gravis Marketing. These organizations aren’t out to “get” Romney or propel a narrative. And the fact that they are (largely) agreeing with all the media polls does not bode well for tomorrow night’s results

Look, I hope I’m wrong. I have even spent moments praying I’m wrong. I would love to be proven wrong and for this prediction to flop. This isn’t the final word on the subject — as the band in the title of this post would say, “Don’t dream it’s over.” A surprising GOTV machine and incredibly high turnout for Republicans could end up winning the day after all. And the enthusiasm gap is there that could propel us toward that results. If I am incorrect and Governor Romney ends up winning tomorrow night, here’s how it would happen: Colorado and Iowa go red, and then Romney wins one of either Wisconsin or Ohio. Those are the four most likely states to flip to light red on this final map — and in that order of probability as well.

Updated November 5th, 2012 – Matt Coulter.

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68 Responses to “2012 Electoral College Projection”

  1. Fredrik Carlstedt Says:

    I see that Maine and Michigan has changed to light blue, progress indeed.

    Yellow states ; New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Iowa, Colorado and Nevada.
    Light red states ; Virginia and Florida.

    It seems that Obama`s firewall crumbles more and more so far. So let us hope and pray to God that this development keeps on happening.

  2. Daniel Ross Says:

    C’mon Why hasnt Romney won Ohio Yet stop slacking

  3. Lucas Bennett Says:

    IMO Romney wins Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Colorado, New Hampshire, Iowa and Ohio for 285. Maybe Wisconsin and maybe not Iowa. I am worried he’ll lose Florida in a shock I must admit.

  4. TomTraubert Says:

    I just cannot believe that someone with as bad a record as Obama is running this strong. He should be run out of office in a landslide looking at the state of this union. I hate to seem melodramatic, really, but if Obama is re-elected, I will have lost complete faith in this country and its citizens. I will assume it’s over.

  5. Richard Says:

    Hard to believe indeed Obama still draws 45-50% of likely voters. The outcome of our election will say much more about ourselves, the electorate, than it will about Obama. I am hopeful and have infinate optimism that we have not yet fully descended into government dependancy instead will be rediscover self reliance and will have our creativity unleashed by Romney/Ryan. Until, sadly we once again take another step down into the abyss, for we, the electorate, will not have learned our lesson given us by Obama the last four years.

  6. bill Says:

    PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE OOOOOHIO VOTE ROMNEY. HE IS A SINCERE MAN WHO WILL FIX OUR PROBLEMS. I WAS BORN IN CINCINNATI AND I LOVE OHIO. MY PARENTS AND BROTHER ARE BURRIED THERE. ROMNEY WILL BRING THE BIGGEST JOB AND ECONOMIC BOOM WE HAVE EVER SEEN. BELIEVE OHIO AND DONT LET US DOWN. THE REST OF THE COUNTRY DID NOT GET A BAIL OUT AND WE ARE HURTING. HELP US GET RID OF THIS EVIL MAN OBAMA

  7. Joe Says:

    For a more accurate look at the electoral college and projected winner of the presidential, senate and house race visit 538.com. This is a non-partisan organization that uses sophisticated methodology to determine who is ahead now and who will win November 6th.

  8. Joe Says:

    I can’t believe an anti-American fascist like Romney even has a chance. His anti-labor, anti-women, anti-American policies are pernicious and will destroy this country. I’m tired of failed repugnicant trickle down economics and his take from the bottom and give to the top through the tax codes. Entitlements for the rich, unnecessary military spending and a horrendous record on civil rights is exactly why people in Massachussettes are voting against him in droves. Romney is a disgrace and must be stopped!

  9. Marcia Says:

    PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE OOOOOHIO VOTE OBAMA!!!! HE IS A SINCERE MAN WHO WILL FIX OUR PROBLEMS. I WAS BORN IN CINCINNATI AND I LOVE OHIO. MY PARENTS AND BROTHER ARE BURRIED THERE. OBAMA WILL BRING THE BIGGEST JOB AND ECONOMIC BOOM WE HAVE EVER SEEN. BELIEVE OHIO AND DONT LET US DOWN. ROMNEY’S ANTI-LABOR, ANTI-MIDDLE CLAA ANTi-WOMEN STANCES ARE WRONG FOR OHIO AND THE COUNTRY. AMERICA NEEDS YOU OHIO TO SAVE US FROM THE FAILED RIGHT WING AGENDA AND MOVE FORWARD. GO OBAMA GO!

  10. Gregory Arnold Says:

    The last thing we need is to move backwards. Back to the failed economic policies that got this country into this mess. Backwards to the point where women’s rights are stripped. Backwards where the middle class and labor are demonized. Backwards where the very rich receive billions of dollars of entitlements through the tax codes, where CEO’s pay little to no taxes, and the wealthy pay only a regressive tax of 14.2% (including Romney!). Backwards where corporations are considered “people my friends” (are you kidding me?), and backwards where people are discriminated against because of who they are, not what they do. Romey/Ryan only look backwards. America has looked forward with Obama, and we are better for it. Unemployment is down, the auto industry is saved and the supreme court finally has decent justices appointed by our President. If you want to go backwards vote Romney/Ryan. They are radical right wingers, disingenuous tea-baggers like Sarah Palin, Michele Bachman and Dick Cheney. The republicans are the problem. They destroyed U.S., but the Democrats are fixing their mess. I proudly, PROUDLY, stand by our president. Obama is good for Ohio and the country. Move forward, vote Obama!

  11. Susan Says:

    Just went to 538.com and saw what you are saying. Indeed, it is the most accurate account of the election. Very scientific. Looks like Obama will win. Thank Goodness!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  12. Collin Says:

    Col. Lawrence Wilkerson, Colin Powell’s chief of staff during his time as secretary of state, decried John Sununu’s comment that Powell only endorsed Barack Obama because they are both black. “To say that Colin Powell would endorse President Obama because of his skin color is like saying Mother Teresa worked for profit,” Wilkerson told Ed Schultz.
    Wilkerson said on The Ed Show that though he respects Sununu, a top Romney adviser and surrogate, “I don’t have any respect for the integrity of the position that he seemed to codify. Look at me, Ed, I’m white. I’m not black. Colin Powell picked me because of the content of my character and my competence.”
    He added that he thinks Sununu’s remark was an “unfortunate slip of words,” but that it speaks to larger problem in the Republican party.
    “My party, unfortunately, is the bastion of those people, not all of them, but most of them, who are still basing their decision on race,” Wilkerson said. “Let me just be candid: My party is full of racists. And the real reason a considerable portion of my party wants President Obama out of the White House has nothing to do with the content of his character, nothing to do with his competence as commander-in-chief and president, and everything to do with the color of his skin. And that’s despicable.”
    In an interview with radio host Michael Smerconish Friday, the president brushed off Sununu’s remarks, saying he will let Powell’s statement and support “speak for itself.”
    “I don’t think that there are many people in America who would question Gen. Powell’s credibility, his patriotism, his willingness to tell it straight,” Obama said. “So any suggestion that Gen. Powell would make such a profound statement in such an important election based on anything other than what he thought would be best for America doesn’t make much sense.”

  13. Collin Says:

    According to Nate Silver, the complete opposite is true of this report. It actually looks far better for Presidenet Obama than the governor. Thank heavens for small miracles!

  14. Fredrik Carlstedt Says:

    Collin – Wilkerson and Powell may be sincere patriots but voting for Obama shows that you and them are complete retards.

  15. wdosmer Says:

    That PINK box in Maine is the 2nd congressional district whose elected delegates to the GOP convention (Ron Paul supporters) were dissed by the Romney folks. I wonder if Romney will pick up that single electoral vote or if enough Mainers will vote Gary Johnson or someone else because of the personal insult they felt because of the convention…

  16. Jim Foley Says:

    Well Mr Carlstedt,

    Rather easy to throw stones… How about backing up your petty remarks with some facts?

    Remember… It’s not what Gov. Romney says he will do or won’t, it’s how he then goes about doing things. This guy who balanced the Mass. Budget, which the law required as you may know… No taxes was the promise, but oh those fees, eh? He took credit for improving the employment rate, but the reason those numbers appeared to improve was because so many workers fled the state.

    The Governor says he fixed the education system. Not so, that goes to the teachers. In much the same way he endeavored to take credit in the debates for his ‘binders of women’ (they were brought to him by women’s groups; he did not seek them out), he looks back to capitalize on the work of others. Yes, he did initiate, with more than a little fanfare, the promise of free state college tuition to those high schoolers who graduated in the top 25% of their class. Of course, you must know that tuition accounted for only 20% of college costs; books and fees making up the balance. Not a bad idea, I grant you, but 20 cents on the dollar for kids who can’t ‘get a loan from their parents’, just reaffirms the belief that this guy doesn’t quite get it. Nice as it sounded, it was a system few were able to take advantage of. FYI per capita spending on education also decreased

    As for Romney-care…the feds forced that upon him as you well know. There was something like 380 million in medicaid payments at risk if Massachusetts did not improve the number of uninsureds in the state. Funny thing, the plan worked. Why does he now distance himself from it.

    Possibly the Governor is a decent manager, but I do not trust a thing he says. Yes, he is opportunistic, but in a way that seems short sighted; very much in the way so many business types are tied to their quarterly reports. He is not a big ideas guy, plain and simple. In the end, the people will decide, that is unless his kid’s voting machines in Ohio don’t go postal…

    Should he emerge victorious, I’ll wish him well; ultimately, I think there will again be hell to pay for the average Joe. Here’s to luck that he won’t get the chance.

    Say what you will about The President, but he remains consistent. And despite stalwart opposition he has delivered on health care, equal pay for women, Bin Laden, the dream act, and student aid, to name a few. NO, he has not fixed everything yet! President Franklin Roosevelt received very much the same sort of criticism when, at the end of his first term, he had not solved the problems wrought by The Great Depression. Now, like then, this is no time to switch horses mid-stream.

    I await a reasoned response.

  17. Fox Says:

    It’s down right laughable reading the comments saying Romney will fix the world! LOL A man who’s made millions off of closing businesses and firing it’s workers. A man who wishes to run the country like its 1950 again! A man who was born into wealth, but fools believe he cares about the little man. A man who will say ANYTHING to get elected. Yea you all go right ahead and drink that Kool-aid, but when it poisonings you don’t say I did not warn you!

  18. Liz Says:

    God might dish out some fury on Obama- voting New Yorkers. Yikes! :). So anything could happen.

  19. Liz Says:

    Jim Foley-
    It is impossible to credibly assert Romney is short- sighted. He puts his family first, which takes a healthy dose of consistent long-term planning and good old fashioned American values. He runs his personal life and his campaign debt free. Obama takes in record hauls of foreign cash, and still has to do last minute borrowing to keep his debt- ridden campaign afloat.
    But more importantly, Romney didn’t leave Americans to die while he watched it on video. This leads me to further entertain the idea that Obama is mentally ill. I’m thinking it’s that, or he needs jail time. So vote your conscience, you blood suckers. Obama is definitely your candidate if you can stomach Benghazi.

  20. Liz Says:

    Fox, Obama laid off my entire extended family. Some of us, the ones that were fortunate enough to get a job, were laid off TWICE. Romney may not save the world, but he will save us from death by Obama incompetence. He is too late to save our Benghazi heroes, though. God give Obama a soul, should be our prayer. Chilling what he’s done. God bless those families. Impeachment is too good for Obama and Hillary. Outrageous and sickening.

  21. Liz Says:

    You trust what Obama says? Mr. “Tell Putin I’ll deliver the USA on a platter after I’m re- elected? That’s rich.

  22. Liz Says:

    Plus he eats dogs. And remember that flyover of NYC He ordered shortly after he was elected? Just for kicks. That was AFTER he chose Biden for VP. I don’t know what you supporters were expecting at that point, but it’s been quite an experiment in whether or not hope can defy the laws of nature, hasn’t it? You don’t need to wonder anymore if experience and competence really make a difference. Expensive, bummer of an experiment. Let’s go back to common sense now. Please.

  23. Liz Says:

    I could have governed better than Obama did. I can do basic math, and I’m not bogged down by outdated ideology. That’s the sad truth. But I will defer to Mr. Romney. He has serious skills, and has strong leadership ability. We are fortunate in terms of having this type of candidate when it’s as crucial as it is.

  24. Kathryn Says:

    I try to be objective when looking at the polling data, the media articles and reports, and the population groups. That said, I see that the logic that is being used-based NOT on the ’08 election-but 2000 and 2004, to be sound. The 2008 election reflected America’s need for Hope and Change. It was an election that brought young voters in. Brought more minorities to the polls. BUT those same young voters have been looking for jobs-many for more than 20 months.(my Obama supporter son included!!) And they are wondering what Hope and Change was all about, cause it hasn’t given them a way to support themselves. The minorities are still stubbornly supporting Obama-but many have become disillusioned along the way-and will stay home this election. Obama has proven that he enjoys the limelight and the Celebrity status that he has enjoyed the last 4 years-so much so that he quit doing his job in the White House nearly 2 years ago when he lost the House to Republicans. Social issues are nice-but not nice enough to BORROW from China in order to pay for them! Same Sex Marriage-for a population of less than 4.5% of the American population, is definitely Back Burner when compared to Jobs and Deficit. The fact that Obama’s numbers have DROPPED to within 1% in many of the swing states (and that number isn’t completely scientific based on who is skewing the numbers) tells me that he is fast losing the race. As a sitting president, he SHOULD be at least 4% ahead in every state-especially when Obama claims he has the support of Blacks, Latinos, LGBT, Democrats, and Women. Those numbers do not support that claim! I think that with dedicated effort the Independents and Republicans (and a few Democrats who shall remain unnamed!) Romney will win-not by a landslide, but with decent enough numbers as to have it stand up in court!! GO Romney/Ryan 2012

  25. Lee Says:

    I read a book series called “Left Behind”. I now believe that the president is probably the anti-christ.

  26. Bring it on Says:

    Interesting when Mormonism is really “Anti Christ” Its a cult. If you want to use religion as a basis. He is a Bishop

  27. Bring it on Says:

    I see that this map has Obama barely clinging on to 270. I guess its back to skewed poll time. However when the polls have Roms ahead they are correct. The bottom line like it or not in this election, Is the make up ofthe electorate itself. You can talk over sample dems I can talk about over sample repubs.

    The white Electorate was 90% in 1980. No wonder Jimmy Carter lost at the end. With a White Electorate that high, it went to Regan in the end in droves. In 1992 it was 84% White; 2000 80% in 2000; 78% in 2004; 74 in 2008 and 2012 estimates are 71-72%. Thats why Bush in 2004 was unable to beat carry by a wide margin, he won the white vote and he polled in the mid 40′s with the Hispanic vote.

    Gallup says the white electorate will go up back to 2004 levels at 78%. That is millions more or electorate, that’s gone by an avg of 3% since 1980

    Its said that the undecideds will break for Roms. Perhaps but what is the make up of the undecideds. Some may stay home and not vote and some will. The key number dem or repub is for Romney to win 60% of the white vote in a 2008 74% white electorate or 61-63 of the white electorate in 2012 of 71%……..even if 1.5% which is alot with millions of voters of minorities don’t vote. The white electorate is still less than it was in 2008…..Obama needs 37-38 no lower of the white vote to win in a 71-72 white electorate and carry 80% more of the minority vote.

    That is the number to look for and that is the number that is not paid tension to. A higher white electorate like gallup has a bigger Roms lead the less white electorate that lead shrinks….when Roms is kicking Obamas as in the south by 67-21 amoung the white electorate no wonder his national numbers at times are like they are. Everywhere else, Roms is wining the white vote but only in number like McCain 54-46; 56-40; 57-43…….Roms can pull it out if he gets his 50′s into the 60′s

  28. Enrique Says:

    Please join in making calls for the Romney campaign. It is actually quite fun and entertaining.

    It’s simple and easy. Go here and click “request credentials.”

    https://www.volunteer-connect.com/mittromney/

    Important: Please make calls only in the four closest swing states, i.e., Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa, Nevada.

    Here’s how to do it:

    When you request credentials, just input any City, State, and Zip Code LOCATED IN THAT SWING STATE, and it will most likely automatically assign you to making calls in that swing state.

    Just be polite and persuasive. You can deviate slightly from the calling scripts so as to optimize your comfort level. Calling hours are 9:00 am to 9:00 pm in the time zone of your chosen swing state (not necessarily your time zone).

    Thanks for helping Mitt!

  29. Bring it on Says:

    Therefore the white electorate is not going down. There is no evidence of that just the opposite. So, Gallup even though it may not be liked is the outlier. Rams is closer to how the race is but the popular vote when its like that is not the issue even if the race goes 50-49 or 49.5 to 48.5 as long as it is in within 2 points you could have a pop vote electoral split. I see Ohio is a toss up. Hoping but the same can be said about Fl right now too. NC is the main won that Roms has a decent lead in right now just as Obama has a decent lead in Oh. We cant assume out of 20 plus polls roms was ahead by a point or two in 3 and tied in two the others have Obama ahead…………PA are you kidding me….if Fl and Va are still tossups PA should be blue that has been fools good for the GOP for years….Bush thought he had it from Kerry, it was 0.7 RCP avg and it went to Kerry by almost 2 points….anyway, the white electorate is the key in this election and obama getting below 37 percent in addition to it being 74% of the electorate not 71-72 which its projected to be

  30. Dan Says:

    MICHIGAN IS A TOSSUP THAT MITT WILL WIN! There are 100,000 Romney/Ryan yard signs in Michigan and 4,000 Obama because President Obama’s staff left Michigan a month ago.

  31. Red Says:

    Haha!

    Suck it, wing nuts!

    It’s already all over, but feel free to keep dreaming.

  32. Bring it on Says:

    30. Dan, I understand what you want it to be. But Let Detroit Go Bankrupt? Michigan is not a tossup. VA, Fl,Co, Nh. Sure but Just as I am pretty sure Roms will win NC is as pretty sure Obama will win MI. Beside. You saw the Rams poll. For a pollster that has shown by studies to have a 2-3% bias towards the GOP to have it tied, when Obama was up 2 before is not good.

  33. eric Says:

    Its too close for me to be definate but I believe Ohio holds for Obama, and Colorado may ever-so-narowlly go to Obama inspite of Romney gains in CO as well as Johnson pulling votes away from Romney.
    I still don’t understand how some of the greatest hard-working conservative minded and family minded Americans, the Latino group in America still is overwhelmingly voting for Obama. Colorado has one of the fastest growing Latino populations ever and this means that Obama will squeak by in Colorado!
    I hope Michigan goes to Romney but I don’t trust that, I have family in Grand Rapids who are strong in Christian faith as am I, I’ve been trying to get them to swing to Romney, but they are ardent european style socialists I am learning through this process! Growing up I never thought it so but they are! A lot of the upper midwest is this way!

    The various American socialist movements came from the scandinavain populations of America during the very late 1800s and very early 1900s and its a cancer that has gone un-checked for more than a century! WWII halted it a bit as well as the “anti-red” Fifties. It swelled in the 60s greatly though! I don’t believe hippies are socialists as much as they are libertarian in the majority. Baby-boomer “beatnicks” however are the cause for the fast socialist take-over in America. Reagan’s ideals were very welcomed by JFK conservative democrats and helped quash the the socialist movment in the 80s. But a globalist Bush family combined with a suave stealth socialist Clinton, helped kill the conservative constitutional rebirth and gave us Obama for two total destructive terms!!!!

  34. dante martire Says:

    I’m a true Pa. independent that really don’t believe it is close in my state. Casey is up by at least 8-10 over Smith internally. I believe Obama carries Pa. easily. Ohio has stayed in Obama’s corner forever by anywhere from 2-12. Romney has never led. Senator Brown still holds a significant edge of 4-8 points. The governor’s have not been signicant advantage for Romney, with the exception of voting changes in each of these states. I am a moderate conservative but realistic. I believe that even with the waves of money invested in this election, which I am appaulled by and a deep divide in congress I can’t see Obama not being re-elected and the Senate maintaining it’s blue edge. I have continually followed the polls and even the far right polls that clearly are a 3-5 point edge show Romney’s support dwindling or staying the same. Over 85% of the more unbias polls have Obama being re-elected and the congress basically staying the same. This should have been an easy election for the Republican party to win both houses and take the whitehouse. Should my original party lose this time with Supreme Court money, governor advantage in all the swing states, control of voting guidelines and a slow economy, I feel a third party arising and the end of era. The racial color and demograhics of the USA is not conducive for the survival of this party. I am a white, upper middle-class male, educated that see’s a different outcome than Rasmussen,Gallup and Zogby. Fox polls at best have it even only these polls find Romney ahead in the electorial map and the really wacked polls. Close but Obama wins.

  35. Cherchoso Says:

    I wonder when gringos will accept America is a continent, not a country.

  36. Bring it on Says:

    WE ASK AMERICA TYPICALLY LEAN GOP

    Posted by admin on Nov 2, 2012 in Polls | 0 comments

    We’ve just wrapped up our weighting on three important polls–Wisconsin, Virginia and Ohio–and want to push the top-lines out to you as quickly as possible. All of these polls were conducted from Oct.30-Nov. 1 through automated means. The responses came from likely voters, and the results have been weighted to correct for over-/under-sampling. We took great care in Ohio and Virginia to make sure we had adequate coverage of regions that are afflicted by Hurricane Sandy outages, and now feel we have the right mix of voters. If and when time permits, we’ll provide background numbers for you, but our data integrity chief has given a thumbs up so we’re pushing them out the door.

    STATE Responses MoE ± Obama Romney 3rd Party
    Wisconsin 1,210 3% 51.5% 44.8% 3.7%
    Virginia 1,069 3.0% 48.5% 47.6% 3.9%
    Ohio 1,649 2.6% 50.2% 45.8% 4.0%

  37. Lizzie Says:

    Hi ya, Liz. You’ve said a bunch there, that Red Bull rush typing fast! Govern better because you have basic math skills and new-dated ideology? (I wouldn’t dare touch the other gems of which you rant.) Then, run! Sound like you know a bit about being the Free Leader of the World. Yes, you encompass the Hate of the newly ideological Right. You also encompass the belief in denial of reason and basic decency. Jump on board the party, and leave your troubles behind. A troubled mind, after all, denotes some thought wrangling, and that’s apparenty getting too taxing for many Americans.

  38. Don Says:

    Goodbye Mitt

  39. Mike D Says:

    Romney needs waaaaaay too much to go his way for victory. O has IA, OH, PA & WI. Game over. VA, NC, NV, NH & FL can go to Mitt and he still can’t win. He can make it look close but….horsehoes and hand grenades…

  40. Questionman Says:

    Man. I’ve never seen more hatred, more lies, more disgusting sick hate speech than I’ve have coming from you cancervatives. You racists are the scum of the country, Not Obama.

    When Obama was elected, he opened up the right’s door to racism, fear, and hate-mongering. for the last four years, Barack Obama has become the most disrespected President in American History by the biggest racists, bigots, extremists, homophobes in America, The Racist Right!

    I don’t associate Islam with evil. I merely observe that the Obama haters do. After all, one of their central themes is “Obama is a Muslim and therefore Evil”. Obviously, the President is not a Muslim. He is also not a megalomaniac, He is NOT evil! he doesn’t want to surrender American sovereignty to the U.N., he has no intention of destroying America, like you racist falsely claim! nor has he no intention of taking anyone’s guns away, and he has no intention of giving away our tax dollars to anyone, but that IS the Republican position.

    What right-wing leaders saw in the election of President Barack Obama — a black man with an exotic name, a foreign father and a white mother — was a touchstone for rallying the resentment of the most fearful sectors of white society, places where people feel threatened by the changing shape of American culture. And so they did what the greediest fat-cats have always done: sought to pit the regular, non-rich people against each other, all in the service of preserving their own power.

    It’s what the former slaveholders did in the South during reconstruction. It’s what the Romans did in their conquest of the world. It’s an oppressor’s game that America, having never come to terms with the deeper truths of slavery, is particularly susceptible to.

    The backlash began before the president was even inaugurated, and reached a crescendo during the debate on healthcare reform, when right-wingers took to the streets of the nation’s capital, some carrying signs depicting the president as a monkey or a pimp .

    Others sought to exoticize him, characterizing him as a communist or a Kenyan usurper of the presidential seal.

    Comparing Obama to Hitler shows what sick, uncaring, hateful scum you truly are.

    I’m getting sick of you current version of the KKK and the Nazis demeaning Barack Obama. He is NOT a Marxist, He is NOTHING like HitlerNOT a Communist. just a bad President being demonized by the biggest group of haters since the KKK.

    Anyone who calls Obama a fraud has 100 percent proven to be a racist, bigoted hater that hates that Black People has power to change America!

  41. Aussie Says:

    Matt – thank you for your maps and your earnest assessments, in the midst of the vitriol from both sides. I have followed many US elections from here in Australia. I have also been closely involved in many of our own State and Federal elections, and have experienced the highs of unexpected wins and the lows of unexpected losses. It is always better to be realistic about the likely outcome, even years in advance, as it can help shape the way your side can approach policy and advocacy to try and change what looks likely to happen. Whatever the outcome of your election, I would think it is more likely that the Republicans will win in 2016 – since 1952 the only “anomalous” term is 1976-1980 (1977-1981) when the Democrats’ one term and Republicans’ three terms upset the eight year pattern.

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