December 30, 2011

Poll Watch: We Ask America (R) Iowa 2012 Republican Caucus Survey

We Ask America (R) Iowa 2012 GOP Caucus Poll

  • Mitt Romney 24% [18%] (13%) {15%} [15%] (13%)
  • Rick Santorum 17% [9%] (5%) {3%} [4%]
  • Ron Paul 14% [19%] (11%) {11%} [8%] (5%)
  • Newt Gingrich 13% [16%] (29%) {18%} [5%] (14%)
  • Michele Bachmann 12% [15%] (13%) {11%} [17%]
  • Rick Perry 10% [11%] (5%) {4%} [29%]
  • Jon Huntsman 4% [4%] (4%) {2%} [1%]
  • Undecided 7% [8%] (13%) {14%}

Survey of 889 likely Iowa GOP caucus participants was conducted December 29, 2011.  Results from the poll conducted December 20, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 28, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted November 6, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 16, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 10, 2011 are in parentheses.

Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 12:12 pm. Filed under Iowa Caucuses, Poll Watch
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36 Responses to “Poll Watch: We Ask America (R) Iowa 2012 Republican Caucus Survey”

  1. Alvin Says:

    I think it’s safe to assume given the most recent polls that Romney is now solidly in the lead by a couple of points in IA. In unrelated news, never tweet your love for Ron Paul, as evidenced by the Kelly Clarkson drama. If I were to be so inclined then I must fight the temptation, losing any of my 34 Twitter followers would be devastating

  2. Massachusetts Conservative Says:

    We Ask America has been a joke all year, and it still is.

  3. Alvin Says:

    2,

    Indeed. They do capture though I think the general momentum of the moment. Numbers aside, it is clear who is rising and who is falling

  4. obamaisastatist Says:

    “Romney is now solidly in the lead by a couple of points in IA”

    I would cat. a solid lead as 7+ points…

  5. criggs Says:

    This survey’s Paul numbers are out of whack with the previous six polls for Iowa. Both PPP and Rasmussen show Paul with a lot more support than this, and PPP and Rasmussen have figures overall that match the other four current surveys.

    On the other hand, this latest We Ask America (WAA) survey was taken AFTER all the other currently available surveys, so there’s an outside chance it’s correct.

    FWIW, of the four other Iowa surveys released by WAA since mid-October, two have matched the other surveys taken at the same time and two have not. So WAA is basically batting .500 where Iowa is concerned before this survey was released, a pretty poor average for a pollster.

  6. Matthew Kilburn Says:

    So, do we think Bachmann drops out on Wednesday?

  7. John2 Says:

    Romney might win Iowa after all – if he does its over barring a major scandal…

  8. Alvin Says:

    4,

    Lol…Ok, a small lead :)

    5: I think the polls reflect that it is between Romney, Paul, and Santorum in IA

    6: Yes

  9. Ci2Eye Says:

    Wow. Rick Santorum. Is he the newest FOTM? This is pretty amazing that they’ve all taken a turn at having their surge.

    As far as Mitt goes, I’ll still be surprised if he wins. I think he should be tamping down expectations.

  10. Rob Says:

    I think a lot of Iowans, after having surveyed the field and finding it lacking, are starting to get behind the guy they think will win in the end. Iowa wants to remain relevant. If Iowans allowed Ron Paul to win, there would be a large movement to take away their first in the nation status. They know Romney is likely to be the nominee and they are starting to act accordingly to preserve their status.

  11. Massachusetts Conservative Says:

    Gallup Daily Tracker:

    Romney – 26
    Gingrich – 24
    Paul – 11
    Perry – 7
    Bachmann – 5
    Santorum – 5
    Huntsman – 2

    http://www.gallup.com/poll/election.aspx

  12. criggs Says:

    8. “I think the polls reflect that it is between Romney, Paul, and Santorum in IA.”

    I would agree. Here’s where I think we are at the moment, if you discount We Ask America (WAA) and factor in the other current six Iowa polls from CNN, PPP, ARG, NBC/Marist, Insider Advantage and Rasmussen, using my Probable Support Range (PSR) system in the table below:

    IOWA Composite 12/22-28
    Romney 20.5-21.7
    Paul 19.9-20
    Gingrich 13-17
    Santorum 12-14.1
    Perry 9.3-13
    Bachmann 7.3-9
    DK 6-6.5
    Huntsman 2-5.5

    By the way, I am truly not trying to flout board etiquette. I presume it’s not okay to post the same above table twice in the same thread. However I’m also presuming it’s okay to post the above table in two DIFFERENT threads, which I have just done. If that’s not okay, could someone set me straight, please? Thanks.

  13. Firecracker Says:

    Romney is now over 77% on Intrade! Simply AMAZING!!!

    Paging Craig for LOSERS! :-)

  14. Massachusetts Conservative Says:

    I wonder how much money Craig For Crooks has blown on Intrade.

  15. Reginald from texas Says:

    Romney and Santorum are the only ones really rising right now.

  16. Jaxemer11 Says:

    Who? Never even heard of this pollster

  17. BenR Says:

    This poll includes Republicans only, which means it will under-represent Paul’s support. We saw the same problem with the last CNN poll: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/12/28/new-iowa-poll-may-understate-pauls-support/

  18. Matthew E. Miller Says:

    538 is giving this poll a good amount of weight (probably because it’s both the most recent and the one with the largest sample size) and their revised projections now put Romney at 23.9%, Paul at 18.7%, and Santorum at 16.8%. I still think Paul is likely to win the caucuses so I hope a few days isn’t enough to change the CW to “Romney WILL win Iowa”.

  19. Jaxemer11 Says:

    A Romney win will still be huge, regardless if the last minute expectations. No one expected this even a week ago.

  20. Ryan60657 Says:

    Who is We Ask America and how credible are they? Are they the polling firm used by Rick Surge-torum’s campaign?

  21. K.G. Says:

    Catch the C-Span video of Mitt, Ann and Christie in IA just now–standing in the rain, knocking Obama for partying in the Hawaiian sun. I like Mitt’s story of his parents taking the family on a road trip throughout the country “so their kids would love America.” “And fall in love with America, I did…..” says Mitt.

    This is all part of the Believe in America theme–which is great counterpoint against Obama and other proud progressives seeking to fundamentally transform the USA.

  22. Massachusetts Conservative Says:

    21

    The whole “Believe in America” thing has two aims:

    (1) To give the race a 1980 Reagan vs. Carter reminder.

    (2) To contrast with Obama’s certainly negative and divisive campaign.

  23. Keith Price Says:

    I like Mitt’s story of his parents taking the family on a road trip throughout the country “so their kids would love America.” “And fall in love with America, I did…..” says Mitt.

    KG, Mitt needs to start playing Springsteen’s “My Hometown”. :)

  24. Keith Price Says:

    22. YES, and those are probably the two PERFECT things to focus on.

    YAY!

  25. SixMom Says:

    Anything goes at this point in Iowa. Santorum rate of acceleration makes him viable.

    Wow!!

  26. criggs Says:

    15. “Romney and Santorum are the only ones really rising right now.”

    Not really. If you discount this latest WAA survey (which I do for now), Romney is just treading water, with an untrending CPSR of 20.5-21.7%. On the other hand, you’re right about Santorum; he’s moved up between 4 and 8 points since the 22nd, very impressive.

    Even if you count WAA, the only statistically significant trend it shows in comparison to the previous six Iowa polls is a pronounced downward movement on the part of Paul, 2 to 9 points since the 22nd. It does not show statistically significant movement on the part of Romney or Santorum.

    17. Hmmm; I wouldn’t be so quick to condemn the CNN poll. Its results comfortably match those of PPP, ARG, NBC/Marist, Insider Advantage and Rasmussen. And I believe some of those latter polls DO include indies and Dems.

  27. criggs Says:

    18. We won’t know for sure about the accuracy of this latest WAA poll until other polls emerge that were also taken on or after WAA’s survey dates. That hasn’t happened yet; I wouldn’t place too much stock in this poll yet.

    20. With regard to WAA’s credibility, I’ve been following the Iowa polls since mid-October, when Giuiliani withdrew and the field was set. Since that time, WAA has released four Iowa surveys, not including this one. Two matched other surveys taken at roughly the same time, and two did not. As I see it, that means they’ve been batting about .500, which I consider rather poor for a pollster. For now therefore, I’m not including this poll in my number-crunching.

  28. greg Says:

    honest question if rick perry and Bachmann does not get like top 5 tuesday night do they likely pack up and go home?

  29. criggs Says:

    Bachmann yes.

    Perry no, because he’s swimming in $$$$. I predict he hangs on for a while no matter what.

  30. Keith Price Says:

    29. I’m really curious about how much money Perry really has left.

    He had postponed paying a LOT of his salaries and bills until after the reporting last quarter so he could look stronger than he was. And, he’s had a pretty big ad spend this quarter with apparently not much new fundraising coming in.

  31. criggs Says:

    And yet he has enough money for a HU-U-U-GE entourage for his bus trips. Take a look at it: http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2011/12/30/us/politics/how-the-candidates-roll.html?ref=politics .

  32. Keith Price Says:

    31

    And yet he has enough money for a HU-U-U-GE entourage for his bus trips.

    Perry has got Texas taxpayers paying for his entourage as part of being governor. A really sneaky trick, in my mind.

  33. Unsinkable Molly Brown Says:

    One thing for sure, Ron Paul has his people hawking every single survey, blog, and website defending how unfair Paul has been treated; getting a little overbearing.

  34. criggs Says:

    33. Just remember: their guy can do no wrong. That’s how the Pauliacs think.

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