October 29, 2011

Poll Watch: Des Moines Register/Selzer & Co. Iowa 2012 GOP Caucus Survey

Des Moines Register/Selzer & Co. Iowa 2012 GOP Caucus Survey

  • Herman Cain 23% (10%)
  • Mitt Romney 22% (23%)
  • Ron Paul 12% (7%)
  • Michele Bachmann 8% (22%)
  • Newt Gingrich 7% (7%)
  • Rick Perry 7%
  • Rick Santorum 5% (4%)
  • Jon Huntsman 1% (2%)

Survey of 400 likely Republican caucus-goers was conducted October 23-26, 2011. The margin of error is +/- 4.9 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted June 19-22, 2011 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal.

by @ 8:08 pm. Filed under Poll Watch
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107 Responses to “Poll Watch: Des Moines Register/Selzer & Co. Iowa 2012 GOP Caucus Survey”

  1. Kavon W. Nikrad Says:

    Tell me again why Mitt can’t win Iowa?

  2. nate w Says:

    once again lol @ Perry

  3. mac Says:

    Romney wins Iowa unless there’s a blizzard the night of the caucus in which case Ron Paul wins because nothing will keep those people from showing up.

  4. David Alvord Says:

    Wow. Mitt’s gotta do ten Iowa townhall meetings explaining why 9-9-9 is dangerous for the country and how it will set up an Obama victory. 51% of Americans don’t pay any federal income tax. For them, Cain will mean an 18% increase in taxes. Not a good thing to run for President on.

  5. Still Hurting Says:

    Accepting that the DMR poll is the gold standard, even if it polls only 400 likely caucusers, I’m pretty happy with these results.

    I expect the Romney circle is pretty happy as well. Had someone suggested 6 months ago, when they decided to go light in IA, and with Huckabee’s and Palin’s shadows falling long on IA, that he’d be tied with a campaign with no tangible organization in the state, I think they’d be delirious.

    Insiders are already suggesting that were the caucus held tonight, with exactly this level of respective support, Cain and Perry would under-perform these numbers and Paul, Bachmann and Santorum would over-perform these number due to their relative organizing efforts. I suspect Romney is reconstituting his organization in all 99 counties under cover and will also equal or exceed polling numbers.

  6. H Says:

    Go Mittens!

  7. corep Says:

    @4 i dont think Mitt has to do anything toward Cain at all. With Cain not having a very robust organization and just starting to throw it together now and Mitt’s already on the ground stealth organization that will get him 3-5 percent more on caucus night I think Romney doesnt have to go after Cain at all. I also suspect that Perry, Santroum, Gingrich, Bachmann will start to turn hard on Cain.

    One thing for sure Romney’s core support hasnt moved at all, it the rest that have to fight for the FOTM vote.

  8. SixMom Says:

    I will be surprised if Iowa is ever really Mitt country. But good for him.

  9. corep Says:

    kavon, do you think if these numbers hold through the Iowa debates that we might see the likes of Pawlenty and Christie camped in Iowa the last 3 weeks before caucus night as surrogates for Romney?

    anyone think Brandstad will endorse for President? if so , who?

  10. Still Hurting Says:

    I’m still very curious about which way the evangelical wind is blowing.

    The word I’m hearing out of IA is that fewer evangelicals are expected this cycle as compared to the record numbers in ’08. Also, that Branstad has been working since his campaign to do voter registration with Branstad-like residents and is building a whole new GOP majority in IA. Remember, he came out of retirement specifically to stanch the growth of the BVP wing of the party. Word is that he has signed up 20,000 new voters, almost none of which respond to the typical socon drivers. To the extent that voting models for “likely caucusers” is built based on previous attendance, these new republicans will be under-represented in the polls.

  11. David Alvord Says:

    A Huck endorsement may push Mitt over the top in Iowa. Huck should do it a week before the caucuses. That’d be nuts!

  12. Massachusetts Conservative Says:

    Good poll for Mitt I suppose…

    But once one of the other candidates (besides Santorum) decides to live in Iowa for 2 months, Mitt is going to increasingly fall behind.

    Mitt is going to have to make a decision – campaign lightly in Iowa and be happy with 2nd, or campaign hard there, knowing he has little to lose by coming in 2nd in Iowa again, but a LOT to gain by potentially coming in first.

    If Romney wins Iowa, this thing is over.

    If he comes in a close second in Iowa, then dominates New Hampshire, you can put a Romney win in Florida in the bank.

    If things go like this, Romney’s the nominee:

    IA – Cain
    NH – Romney
    SC – Cain
    FL – Romney
    NV – Romney
    MI – Romney
    AZ – Romney
    CO – Romney
    MN – Romney

  13. Keith Price Says:

    4. For now, Mitt should do nothing to hurt Cain. The best thing that could happen to Mitt is for it to be a 2 man race between him and Cain.

  14. Still Hurting Says:

    Bachmann, Perry, and Cain have all found that FOTM (flavor of the month) has a tendency to mutate into FITM (foot in the mouth).

    People are all very excited about backing a true movement conservative, pure as the snow that fell today in MD, until they find out they aren’t all that pure, and worse, that they are totally unprepared for the task of winning the nomination. Unprepared to the point of embarassment.

  15. Keith Price Says:

    10. “BVP wing”?

  16. Still Hurting Says:

    And isn’t it interesting that both Perry’s and Cain’s solution to reducing the number of embarrassing gaffes is to suggest that they will make fewer debates and fewer campaign stops and interviews.

  17. Ricccardo Says:

    This is the best of all outcomes for Mitt. Cain, who cannot go the distance, wins by a whisker, and the others, including the only guy who could mount a legit challenge, Newt, all in single digits. This will keep the third party talkers at bay, thinking Cain could be there guy. It’s a perfect Romney outcome.

  18. Massachusetts Conservative Says:

    I also want to add that if this poll looks like this on January 2nd, Romney’s probably the nominee.

  19. Keith Price Says:

    12. Seems like a tough decision for Mitt. A 2nd place without trying is pretty good. 2nd place after really going all out would be played as proof of his inability to excite the base.

  20. Keith Price Says:

    12. (continued) But, a 1st Place would absolutely KILLER! Tough choice. Take the risk? Or, play it safe?

  21. Irish Right Says:

    I’ve said all along that the hard core IA Evangelicals will never let Romney win the caucuses. I’ve also said that he would be ecstatic with 20 – 25% and a solid second place. However, the closer we get the more I can’t figure out who the Evangelicals will get behind. If they can’t get behind a single guy (or girl), Romney may just sneak in and steal this. Boy, wouldn’t that just chap Will, Limbaugh and Levin’s asses? :)

  22. Massachusetts Conservative Says:

    If Mitt is who most people say he is, he’s going to campaign lightly in Iowa for the next 2 months.

  23. Metro Says:

    Has anyone other than a sitting President won IA, NH and SC?

  24. Still Hurting Says:

    What looks almost certain is that Paul (his organizational strength makes me think he could get 14% on 1/3) and Cain (with his increased fundraising makes me think he will pull 18-20%) will pull down double digits.

    With $15mm in the bank, Perry will resuscitate to take high teens. Bachmann still has the organization she built to win Ames and I think she will get 10% on caucus night. Santorum is wearing out shoe leather in IA and is winning over some Evangelical support and I see him getting close to 10%. Gingrich continues to win back support from his debate performances.

    Romney – 24%
    Cain – 18%
    Perry – 16%
    Paul – 14%
    Bachmann – 10%
    Gingrich – 9%
    Santorum – 8%
    Other – 1%

  25. Metro Says:

    #24: Sounds about right.

  26. Dave Gaultier Says:

    The reason Romney is dominating this field is that all of the other candidates are either poor politicians or are ill-suited for a national race in a cycle like this one. The candidates who would have done well this cycle, such as Ryan, Jindal, Christie, and Rubio, all found it impractical or imprudent to run. Note also that those four candidates are Gen Xers who are more in touch with the concerns of modern life than the Boomer politicians like, say, Newt or Perry, who are still running using the lingo, dog whistles, and cultural resentments of the generation weaned on the cultural revolution of the 1960s. The notion of, say, running a pro-capitalist campaign that was skeptical of the collusion between Wall Street and the government would never even show up on the radar screens of most of these guys. It’s not showing up on Romney’s either, but he’s got other ways of compensating for his own limitations.

  27. Still Hurting Says:

    BVP = Bob Vander Plaats. He was the socon challenger to Branstad in the GOP primary. Branstad won 50/40, but there was a third player (socon) that took the other 10%.

  28. David Alvord Says:

    If it were up to me, I’d increase the Romney ground game in Iowa, but not do too many official visits to the State. I’d work on Huck for an endorsement with all my might. Try to appear like he doesn’t care or isn’t trying all that hard.

    But keep his base! Don’t change the gameplan now.

    Romney’s best argument right now is electability. He has to say that in spite of his faults, he can send the President packing. But Cain will insure another 4 years for Obama. I think if you’re honest you know this is true.

  29. Dave Gaultier Says:

    24,

    You’re being VERY generous to Perry. Everyone seems to want Perry to make a comeback because it seems to make no sense for him not to do so. Perry’s like a long division problem, where the ultimate answer seems to be that he’ll do well, and the fact that he’s not doing well is making us rework all of the numbers in the middle in order to figure out just where we forgot to carry the 1. But I think that what people are missing about Perry is that he is just woefully inadequate as a candidate for national office.

  30. Still Hurting Says:

    I may have over-estimated Perry’s performance. His campaign just confirmed that he will continue to participate in future debates. (I’m reminded of Pickett’s charge.)

  31. Thomas Alan Says:

    30:

    That’s too bad. Perry lowers the level of discourse.

  32. Still Hurting Says:

    Mr. Gaultier,

    I completely agree that the current crop of challengers, irrespective of their particular values and beliefs, are completely incompetent to take the fight to either Romney or Obama. Each has foundered badly and nearly as quickly as they had the spotlight on them. I have referred to them as “the Icarus candidates.” They elevate, but crash as soon as they come too near the light of the sun.

  33. aspire Says:

    This is too close for Cain to pull off a win. If Cain continues to poll 1% over Romney, he’s going to lose Iowa and Romney’s going to roll through the primaries. All the other candidates are SRP (sub-Ron Paul) which means they have no chance.

  34. PabloZed Says:

    #29 I think everyone (outside of TX) was fooled by Perry’s electoral success in TX. And there’s an assumption that a gov of such a large state would naturally be competent. We actually have a stake in this being at least partly true.

  35. PabloZed Says:

    #33 – I think the opposite is true. Cain will win a close race because of the enthusiasm gap.

  36. Otis Peabody Says:

    Sorry to say but you must of HAND picked the 400 voters.I can tell you I live in Iowa and I doubt if you could find 400 “ANYBODY’s in the hole state of Iowa that back the “God to Be” or the “103 dead girls that died with Rick Perry’s must have shots”. Yes it is a hand picked and I’m sure WELL USED 400. Otis Peabody

  37. Adam Graham Says:

    #12:

    I would note that the winner of the South Carolina has been the Republican Nominee, period. And many polls in Florida shows this as close anyway with Herman Cain.

    If Herman Cain wins South Carolina and Mitt Romney wins Florida, I’d expect a dogfight through at least Super Tuesday and the weeks after. I also wouldn’t count Minnesota firmly in Mitt’s corner either as Cain won the Midwestern Republican Leadership Straw poll by a significant margin.

  38. Massachusetts Conservative Says:

    35

    Agreed.

  39. Liz Says:

    Woah ho! It was the yellow flowers ad. That was just too much for rational people.

  40. Liz Says:

    I hope Cain wins Iowa. Otherwise this will be boring for Mr. Romney.

  41. Thomas Alan Says:

    I would note that the winner of the South Carolina has been the Republican Nominee, period.

    Small sample size leads to useless conventional wisdom.

  42. aspire Says:

    #33 – I think the opposite is true. Cain will win a close race because of the enthusiasm gap.

    That’s a perfectly legitimate opinion, and your guess is as good as mine, but what I’m thinking is Romney has a much stronger organization, much more money for the few weeks before the caucus, actual voters who have gone to caucus for him before, and we still really don’t know how solid Cains support is especially in light of other candidates support collapsing.

  43. Massachusetts Conservative Says:

    37

    Things have changed ever since Florida decided to have its primary right after South Carolina.

    It happened to be the case that McCain won both SC and FL in 2008, but it’s only because Romney lost big in Iowa and New Hampshire previously. Had Romney won Iowa, New Hampshire, or both, he would have won Florida over McCain, and that’s just a simple fact.

    Also, I would contend that Minnesota is more like Michigan and Wisconsin than it is like Iowa and Nebraska. Mitt stands to do well in Minnesota, and I don’t think there is really any doubt about that. It also will help that TPaw is firmly in Romney’s camp and I suspect Bachmann will be too. I think you realize that straw polls never say anything definitive about who will win a state.

  44. Wild Onion Says:

    Trust me, folks. I’ve got a front row seat for all of this in Iowa.

    Cain is going to tank. He has no organization, and his grassroots support continues to deteriorate.

    Romney can’t get out of the low 20′s in Iowa, no matter what anyone else does. If the stars line up, he can still win this thing, but it will only be because of the rest of the field dividing up votes.

    The most hard-core social conservatives (The BVP/Steve Deace/Family Leader wing of the party) will end up with either Bachmann, Santorum or Gingrich. Most people I talk to understand that Bachmann is not ready to lead and sinking fast. That leaves Santorum or Gingrich. If Newt can scrape together some money in the next few weeks, I could see him really picking up steam.

    All the money in the world isn’t going to help Ron Paul add considerably to his current base of support. There is no other constituency for him to speak to. He might get a handful of the Bachmann folks as she winds down, but that’s it.

    1st/2nd/3rd in Iowa is going to come down to Romney, Perry and Gingrich, with all three in the 17-25 range.

  45. Massachusetts Conservative Says:

    36

    The Des Moines Register poll is the Gold Standard, high water mark poll in American politics. It is as accurate and precise as anything else you’ll ever see.

    It might even be the case that the Des Moines Register poll is the most accurate poll in the whole world election cycle to election cycle. Someone might want to check that out.

    UNH/WMUR and Suffolk of NH are quite excellent as well.

  46. aspire Says:

    I would note that the winner of the South Carolina has been the Republican Nominee, period. And many polls in Florida shows this as close anyway with Herman Cain.

    You could also say that the eventual winner has always (since the current system began being used) won South Carolina. So considering Romney’s the favorite at this point, and things are just getting better for him, we can expect Romney to win Iowa. My point is how much is SC leading, and how much is it following. We don’t know.

  47. ccr Says:

    It’s good to see Mitt up there. W/the MOE, it’s a tie. Mitt said he will be back………a group call/connection would be great…..focusing on JOBS/the ECONOMY and how it helps families, etc. I’ve liked Cain, but I’m learning he really is NOT ready for the national presidential scene. We have a novice in the WH right now. We NEED someone who IS intellectually and organizationally prepared. Cain does NOT fit that bill. Mitt’s last 4 years (and previous 25+ years in the private sector) were doing just what America needs………preparing to lead and turn around this trainwreck.

  48. PabloZed Says:

    #44 I always trust a voice from the warzone. So, assuming you are right, a Santorum or Gingrich win in IA would literally be bigger than Obama’s win. Simply because neither has been given any chance to be the nominee and a win would probably make them the favorite over Romney. THAT would be huge news.

  49. Adam Graham Says:

    #43

    T-Paw did a great job for McCain. I don’t think Florida is going to be seen as the be-all and end-all that you think it is. It may have been in 2008 because you had 24 states including California and New York voting the very next week with winner-take-all delegates.

    I think South Carolina’s first in the South Primaries far more influential than Florida’s decision to violate party rules and jump ahead of all the states that played by the rules.

    If you win Florida as Mitt Romney, it just proves some primaries can be bought.

    I don’t think that the Straw Poll was definitive. I do think it was instructive because of who the delegates were. These weren’t just folks who bought a ticket, these were Republican grassroots activists from across the midwest, with a concentration in Minnesota.

  50. Thomas Alan Says:

    The Des Moines Register poll is the Gold Standard, high water mark poll in American politics. It is as accurate and precise as anything else you’ll ever see.

    No it’s not. It literally can’t be. The Des Moines Register poll’s alleged accuracy is so overhyped that it makes news and changes the dynamics of the race in favor of the person leading the poll. That makes it a self-fulfilling prophecy, not an accurate poll.

  51. Try Not To Laugh At My 1.9 GPA perry Says:

    perry had a little too much of something last night!

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/10/29/video-rick-perrys-unusual-speech-performance_n_1065571.html

  52. aspire Says:

    From this poll, I’d have to say that Perry’s campaign is dead – he should start focusing on selling books. Bachmann’s campaign is also dead – she should also start focusing on losing gracefully. Gingrich has not taken off like many of us seemed to think he would, and it’s coming down to Romney and Cain. I’m starting to think that Romney might run away with this thing. He’s shown real staying power, and Cain is going to continue to take hits now that he’s a leading candidate and since he continues to make gaffes.

  53. Matthew E. Miller Says:

    #51,

    Rick Perry has clearly taken leave of his senses. He must have been drunk. Unreal.

  54. K.G. Says:

    #51 Seriously. The first time I saw Perry in a TV interview, way back when I asked: Does he drink? It was a serious question. Still is. His manner is very bizarre to say the least.

  55. Jaehos Says:

    Wow, I actually like drunk perry. Drunk perry could give mitt a real challenge.

  56. K.G. Says:

    #51, #52 Send this link to Rush, who has also taken leave of his senses, IMO.

  57. Matthew E. Miller Says:

    Seriously, if I suspected that Rick Perry had an IQ higher than a tree stump I’d have to conclude that he was enacting some sort of parody with that speech. As it is, I’m left to boggle. Nothing makes any sense.

  58. PabloZed Says:

    Its edited to make him look bad, but yeah, it looks bad.

  59. K.G. Says:

    It’s one step above the hilarious bad lip reading video. Now, to be fair, this video is all chopped up–but still.

  60. Thomas Alan Says:

    51:

    The funny thing is that drunk Perry sounds suspiciously like Bad Lip Reading Perry.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BhDhDRvHaGs

  61. Try Not To Laugh At My 1.9 GPA perry Says:

    He could seriously do better in debates if he was like this. Ha Ha.

  62. Keith Price Says:

    49. That’s a pretty convenient philosophy. A Romney win means he bought the vote. A loss proves he can’t win.

    Good plan.

  63. Keith Price Says:

    50. Funny. If it’s a self-fulfilling prophecy, it’s STILL accurate — by definition.

  64. Massachusetts Conservative Says:

    49

    Opinion, not analysis.

  65. Massachusetts Conservative Says:

    51

    LOL!!!!!!!!!

    AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA-HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    He’s done!!!!

  66. David Alvord Says:

    51. Is that the real Rick Perry? Eeewww! He made me uncomfortable.

  67. PabloZed Says:

    Just thinking aloud . . .

    But wouldn’t Romney prefer a longer primary against Cain over either a short primary or a long one against Santorum or Gingrich? Probably a rhetorical question.

  68. Abe Says:

    What was Rick drinking to bring out that kind of a performance?

  69. K.G. Says:

    #68 Maybe like Cain “he only got four hours sleep.”

    Seriously, I want a POTUS who can discipline himself in such a way to get some sleep and make some sense.

  70. David Alvord Says:

    I just had this thought. Any chance Perry’s political career is over? Is there any Chance Texans will shy away from him now? Or is that weirdness acceptable in Texas? I’ve never lived there.

  71. David Alvord Says:

    I think it’s safe to say Huntsman has ruined any political future in Utah.

  72. Thomas Alan Says:

    62:

    Polls are supposed to be an accurate snapshot of the present, not the future. By the Des Moines Register poll influencing the results as much as it does, it’s become less of a scientific poll than a strange sort of endorsement.

  73. Dave Says:

    Whither Cain? My guess is down….but I also would guess that Mitt’s numbers in Iowa will rise. The suggestion made earlier in the thread that he can’t break the low 20′s in the state makes no sense. He’s only had one campaign swing in the state, and it was brief.

    He’s rebuilding his organization, will campaign more, and will, eventually, start running ads. Is there any sign of an incipient Huckabee on the horizon?

    I detect none.

  74. Benjamin Says:

    I do not know who to support. I am not excited about any of the candidates. I like Bachmann, Cain, Newt, and Santorum (even perry) over Romney. Anybody but Romney. Is like anyone but McCain, Dole, or Ford. Since I do not see a consensus builder among them… I pray for Huckabee to enter into the race or I fear for the future.

  75. Frank Says:

    The way I see it, Romney has proven that he can hold on to his support. That gives Romney a foundation of support upon which to build. Everyone else gets fleeting “survey respondent” support.

    No one else has a foundation except Ron Paul, but his foundation is not one upon which support can be built.

    Cain’s support will evaporate, and no one can increase their numbers enough to beat Romney.

  76. Keith Price Says:

    74. Didn’t the NH deadline just pass, today? Huck CAN’T get in. You’ll need to look within the current batch.

    BTW, anyone know for sure if Santorum met the deadline?

  77. K.G. Says:

    #73 Like I said earlier, I saw Huck tonight on FOX. Completely relaxed, extremely comfortable. Not itching for a fight. In fact, I don’t see him even getting up for a VP run. I could be wrong, but that’s my impression.

    The only two people who even act like they want to be POTUS is Obama and Romney.

  78. Mike Farley Says:

    51, 60: Incredible video. Perry needs to drop out of the race and check into a rehab center (or psych ward)–he is done(and I don’t say this with hyperbole). What are the rules for political contributions to his campaign or super fund? Can they be returned to the contributors? What are the other options? If he pulls out fast enough, Romney will be spared the negative onslaught. I think this video link deserves a FPP.

  79. Frank Says:

    Check out the James Carville article on Perry.

    http://www.cnn.com/2011/10/28/opinion/carville-rick-perry/index.html

  80. Keith Price Says:

    73. Perhaps pain medication for his back? Or, maybe that plus a small drink or some other bad combination? He really did act high.

  81. Joshua Says:

    #23 Metro: No non-incumbent Republican has ever won both Iowa and NH in the same year, much less both plus SC.

  82. Dr J Says:

    79- Thank you for that, that was really a hoot. Being from Louisiana, I can appreciate it a little bit more.

  83. Heath Says:

    omg if that Perry speech isn’t a candidate killer nothing is!

    I apologise for ever taking this guy seriously.

  84. zeek Says:

    49# Graham “If you win AS ROMNEY then it just proves that some primaries can be bought.”

    Was there ever a more tell tale line proving a bloggers complete lack of honest objectivity than this?

  85. jaxemer11 Says:

    37 – Never without winning Iowa or NH first. Come on now, let’s use our brains a little. Winning SC alone isn’t going to get anyone anywhere.

  86. 999MeansJobs.com Says:

    Raise some Cain! 8)

    •Herman Cain 23% (10%) ..B>SURGE!
    •Mitt Romney 22% (23%)

    Hey! Where’s the Favorables? Coming out tomorrow perhaps?

  87. 999MeansJobs.com Says:

    If Cain wins IA, he wins SC, too!

    IA + SC = Nomination (SC’s record since 1980!)

  88. Firecracker (Romney/West) Says:

    Winner take all states do not begin until April. Therefore, any impact from a SC win will be substantially diminished. The winner will not have a lock on the nomination by winning all delegates from FL, NY and others right after SC. They will have to work hard for the next two months after. This primary will be very different from the previous ones.

  89. Riccardo Says:

    While these early states are always key, remember that the RNC is dinking them half their votes. If these early states also split there delegates, then those two factors are the supreme set up to a longer nomination process. These contextual factors allow Romney to be best positioned. Noone, by a long shot, has the ground game set up in many, many states, like Romney. If it goes past Super Tuesday, which it may, Romney quickly wraps it up.

    I still maintain that a brokered convention is a possibility, what with all the Romney hatred out there, and some voices in the new media being, well…stupid. If it is brokered, it may the stuff of Hollywood. There will be some serious anti Romney energy, and a whole lot of folks who resent that the party didnt just get behind the guy who actually brought the most delegates to Tampa. Fireworks like we’ve never seen.

  90. Smack1968 Says:

    I’m quite stunned that the ROMBOTS perceive this poll as good news for Mitt.

    Read below:

    Another big warning flag for Romney: Those who definitely intend to caucus don’t like him much. This group is 38 percent of those polled, but Romney is the first choice of just 10 percent of them. Cain is the strongest among definite attenders with 27 percent.

    Continue Reading

    And likely caucusgoers don’t see him as their backup: 11 percent designated him their second choice, behind Cain and Gingrich.

    http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1011/67156.html#ixzz1cH6iFSSs

  91. Thomas Alan Says:

    89:

    What’s this talk of a brokered convention lately? It’s not going to happen. Brokered conventions only happen when there are three or more viable candidates splitting up the votes. Right now the only credible scenarios are a candidate running away with the whole thing by the time the early states finish voting, or two candidates fighting it out. With two candidates, it usually ends with a bandwagon effect in favor of one guy or the other.

    In 2008 it actually was a small possibility since we had a much stronger field and the candidates who were strong in different sections of the country, but even then McCain had things wrapped up after Super Tuesday.

  92. Craigs Says:

    The coming Rolling Stone article on Perry, due Nov. 10′ is already on the web. It is a killer article on blatant political layoffs and crony capitalism with a Capital C. I just don’t know how Perry assumed this stuff would not become public.. Add to the article the really sorry debates and you get a guy that shouldn’t remotely consider leaving Texas and running for anything else.

    CraigS

  93. Craigs Says:

    All the focus on Iowa is really about media expectations and momentum. The truth is that Iowa is a proportional caucus. Nobody is likely to come out of Iowa with a lead of more than a very few delegates, perhaps only three or four

    CraigS

  94. davidfarrar Says:

    I have spent the last two days pouring over the life and times of Miles Park Romney: Mitt Romney’s great-grandfather (paternal), Helamen Pratt: Mitt Romney’s great-grandfather (maternal), Gaskell Romney: Mitt Romney’s grandfather (paternal), George W. Romney: Mitt Romney’s father.

    I have found overwhelming prima facie evidence, including a copy of Mexican Naturalization papers for Helamen Pratt, that suggests Mitt Romney’s father, was not a US citizen at the time of Mitt’s birth, making Mitt Romney a 14th Amendment Citizen and not a natural born Citizen.

    George Romney was born in Mexico to expatriated Mormon parents. That made him a citizen of Mexico at birth and not a US citizen “natural born” or otherwise.

    Please believe me when I say this issue has nothing whatsoever to do with politics. It is just upholding the provisions of the Constitution, and nothing more.

    I call upon Mitt Romney now to either post Gaskell Romney’s US naturaliztion documents (or repatriated record) or George Romney’s US naturaliztion documents he would have filled out and signed when he was 21 years of age, or withdraw from the presidential race as Constitutionally unqualified to take the oath of office of the presidency of the United States.

    ex animo

    davidfarrar
    *Print/Screen

  95. Watchinitall Says:

    90. Sadly, I agree. Iowa’s caucus is a special breed of cat. Romney wins Iowa if Rick Perry doesn’t. Perry is the only one capable to putting together an electoral narrative and money to push it forward. Fringe Evangelicals control Iowa on the Republican side, just as fringe liberals control the Democratic side.

    Iowa is where reasonable politicians go to finish third or fourth.

    Romney cannot win Iowa. Whoever becomes the nominee has to patch together a broad coalition of Republicans across the country. Winning Iowa is practically a disqualifier.

  96. GetReal Says:

    94 – even if that crap were true, his mother was certainly born in the United States and a citizen at the time of his birth.

  97. Watchinitall Says:

    What I meant is this: Romney “wins” Iowa . . . regardless of where he places . . . if Rick Perry doesn’t. If Cain wins, it’s not going to a “what a great comeback!” moment. If Perry does, it will, and unpaid media is gong to count for an awful lot, just as it does every time.

  98. Keith Price Says:

    88. Which states changed from winner take all to proportional?

  99. Keith Price Says:

    89. What exactly is a brokered convention and what brings it into play?

  100. Frank Says:

    83.Heath Says:
    October 30th, 2011 at 1:35 am
    omg if that Perry speech isn’t a candidate killer nothing is!

    I apologise for ever taking this guy seriously.

    We forgive you.

  101. Frank Says:

    Adam Graham Says:
    October 29th, 2011 at 9:25 pm
    If you win Florida as Mitt Romney, it just proves some primaries can be bought

    If you win Florida as Mitt Romney, it proves that some people are blessed to have the money they need to do the job that needs to be done.

  102. Thomas Alan Says:

    99:

    Basically a brokered convention is what happens when no one has a simple majority of delegates when they get to the convention. At that point the delegates on the floor start maneuvering, horsetrading, etc. to decide who is going to be the nominee like they used to do it before primaries were adopted. In fantasy, sometimes this means that a candidate who hasn’t been running will be “drafted” and become the nominee out of nowhere.

    As I said before, it’s almost impossible for a brokered convention to happen unless there are at least 3 strong contenders fighting over the delegates. The candidates would almost have to split the delegate count almost 50/50 to make that happen. And, with bandwagon effects and winner-take-all rules in many states, that’s almost impossible.

  103. Keith Price Says:

    102. Thanks, Thomas.

  104. Frank Says:

    Smack1968 Says:
    October 30th, 2011 at 9:22 am
    I’m quite stunned that the ROMBOTS perceive this poll as good news for Mitt.

    Smack, the Politico article seems to have omitted a few things from the DMR article it was referencing.

    “Romney is more popular than any other candidate with the under-35 age group. He’s the first choice for 27 percent of them, compared to 21 percent for Herman Cain and 18 percent for Ron Paul. He also is top choice among seniors, with 33 percent. Cain is at 15 percent, his poorest showing among any age group.

    “Among those who say their minds are made up, Romney gets 24 percent, tying with Paul for first.

    Hey Smack, did I mention that your man Christie has endorsed Romney?

  105. jaxemer11 Says:

    There is no way we are having a brokered convention. That makes no sense at all.

  106. jaxemer11 Says:

    Smack, what the heck happened? I thought you were backing romney now?

  107. wateredseeds Says:

    Just one question about this conversation. How in the world can anyone think that Minnesota is like Iowa and Nebraska? Iowa and Nebraska are both very socially conservative, while tilting moderate on fiscal issues. Minnesota is more liberal in every degree. Culturally they are very different. Just because there is farming there…doesn’t mean it’s the same. And in fact, Indiana is the closest to Nebraska out of any other state…Iowa tends to be a little more moderate acrossed the board.

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