October 26, 2011

Poll Watch: Fox News 2012 Republican Nomination Survey

Fox News 2012 GOP Nomination Poll

  • Herman Cain 24% [17%] (6%) {9%} [9%]
  • Mitt Romney 20% [23%] (22%) {26%} [26%]
  • Newt Gingrich 12% [11%] (3%) {9%} [9%]
  • Rick Perry 10% [19%] (29%)
  • Ron Paul 9% [6%] (8%) {10%} [10%]
  • Rick Santorum 3% [3%] (4%) {4%} [4%]
  • Michele Bachmann 3% [3%] (8%) {13%} [15%]
  • Jon Huntsman 0% [4%] (1%) {2%} [2%]
  • Gary Johnson 0% [0%] (0%) {1%} [1%]
  • Fred Karger 0% [0%] {0%} [0%]
  • Buddy Roemer 0% [0%] (1%)
  • Too soon to say 11% [5%] (6%) {8%} [7%]
  • Don’t know 5% [7%] (10%) {9%} [13%]

Survey of 328 Republican primary voters was conducted by Anderson Robbins Research (D)/Shaw & Company Research (R) October 23-25, 2011. The margin of error is +/- 5.5 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted September 25-27, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 29-31, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted August 7-9, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 17-19, 2011 are in square brackets.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal.

by @ 6:12 pm. Filed under Poll Watch
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100 Responses to “Poll Watch: Fox News 2012 Republican Nomination Survey”

  1. 999MeansJobs.com Says:

    :) Herman Cain 24% .. [9%]
    :( Mitt Romney 20% .. [26%]

    Go CAIN! 8)

    Fox News Poll: GOP Primary Voters Get on the Cain Train

    Published October 26, 2011
    |
    Herman Cain takes the lead in the Republican presidential nomination contest as GOP voters continue to deny Mitt Romney clear front-runner status.

    A Fox News poll released Wednesday shows support for Cain has quadrupled among GOP primary voters since late August. :) At that time, he stood at 6 percent. After three September debates, he jumped to 17 percent. :) And now Cain leads the pack at 24 percent.

    ..Romney receives 20 percent :( — a new low for him.
    :( That’s down from 23 percent last month and a high of 26 percent in early August.

    Read MUCH more: http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2011/10/26/fox-news-poll-gop-primary-voters-get-on-cain-train/#ixzz1bvcTawuM

  2. Matt "MWS" Says:

    Huntsman has pulled within 10 points of Perry!!!!!

    Surge!!!!!!!

  3. Matt "MWS" Says:

    Craig,

    Are you willing to admit yet that Perry is a corrupt dumbass?

  4. Walker Says:

    Too soon to say 11% [5%] (6%) {8%} [7%]

    Yet as time goes on, we get closer. lol

  5. ogrepete Says:

    Wow, how about Rick Perry losing 10% each poll. Un-freaking-believable.

  6. Greg Says:

    Only 328 polled in this national poll

  7. Massachusetts Conservative Says:

    I just want to take a second and encourage you all to count the amount of emoticons in comment #1.

    SEVEN.

    SEVEN smilies in ONE SINGLE comment.

    Craig, just give it up. Throw in the towel, it’s time to go home.

  8. jarvis Says:

    Now the media has a story. Hope this keeps up. Stay tuned.

  9. 999MeansJobs.com Says:

    3.

    Matt, 8)

    Absolutely…………….100%………………………….NOT!

    As a matter of fact, I TRUST Perry and gave him a job in the upcoming Cain administration. Hey, I found the PERFECT job for your guy, TOO!

    President – Cain
    VicePres – Huckabee

    SecState – Newt
    SecJustice – Rudy
    SecEnergy – Perry :)
    SecTreasury – Forbes
    SecCommerce – Barbour
    SecDefense – Petraeus
    SecHumServ – Bachmann
    SecInterior – Palin
    SecVeterans – Paul
    SecHousing – Watts
    SecAgricult – Peterson
    SecHomeSec – Santorum
    Trade Rep – Huntsman :)
    SecLabor – Romney

    DirectorEPA – Abolish
    SecTransport – Abolish
    SecEducation – Abolish
    AmbassadorUN – Abolish

    DirectorMgt&Budget – Johnson
    ChairCouncilEconAdvisers – Trump

    Cain’s Go-To-Guys in House and Senate – Ryan & Rubio

  10. Smack1968 Says:

    Newt is within 8 pts from Romney in this poll.

    Nice…very nice.

    I read all the posts in the last thread that told me it was pretty stupid for me to waste any time on a nNwt candidacy….

    ..well…I see it this way.

    Romney needs some competition. Mitt did not get it from my guy TPAW. Mitt didn’t get it from Perry, and Cain is just winging it. Romney needs to get tested. I will support Romney against Obama……there is no question about that. I have serious problems with Mitt..& with Newt…and with Hermain..and with Rick&Rick..and of course with the NUT JOB. But I need to see some competition, and right now Mitt is leaving these other guys in the dust. Yes, I know what Cain numbers say…but come on..really? Cain is not going to hold up.

    I understand what the Rombots are going through right now. I was that McCain supporter here in 2007-8 wondering why others here wouldn’t get behind my guy. But you all did in the end….but it took to the very end for this to happen.

    We will get behind Mitt in the end…but now we need some sort of fight. We need to get Mitt toughen up. Cain can’t do it….and Rick Perry is a dope.

    I, Smackdaddy..therefore offically announce today, October 26 2011, hereby endorse the candidacy of Newt Gingrich for the GOP Nomination of the office of the Presidency of The United States of America.

    I call on all other non-Rombots to do the same. It’s time to give Mitt a fight for the nomination.

    Are you with me!!!!!!!

  11. 999MeansJobs.com Says:

    7.

    :(

    You’re too serious. Must be living in Taxachusetts. ;)

  12. Firecracker (Romney/West) Says:

    Craig….I guess you have no problem with how stupid you look. This is a NATIONAL poll. Any person with brain knows that national polls should be taken with a grain of salt.

    Especially since today we have polls that show Romney beating out Cain in the first FIVE STATES to vote in the primary season: IA, NH, SC, FL and NV.

  13. 999MeansJobs.com Says:

    10.

    LOL!

  14. CraigS Says:

    Craig

    Its not 999 Means Jobs. It’s now 990 means jobs, to be correct, guy

    CraigS

  15. Smack1968 Says:

    Craig,

    SecHumServ – Bachmann

    ?
    ???

    ??????

    BBRRRRAAAHHHAAAWWWWAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!

    First of all, you have to be a human who has empathy for other humans before you can become SEC of Human Services.

    27 foster children were a Govt paycheck for the Nut Job…period.

    Bachmann for a any cabinet job is the funniest thing I have read here in a long time….well…since the time you supported the Nut Job.

  16. Massachusetts Conservative Says:

    11

    Yes, and we have an unemployment rate of 7.4%, one of the LOWEST in the country.

  17. ogrepete Says:

    Nice post, Smack, even though I’m a Romney supporter.

  18. Massachusetts Conservative Says:

    15 Smack

    You know that if Bachmann were SEC of Human Services, she’d institute a “pray the gay away” program in the department.

  19. ogrepete Says:

    Let me clarify now that I see you posted again before mine… Nice post in #10, Smack.

  20. 999MeansJobs.com Says:

    12. :(

    TODAY’S REAL CLEAR POLITICS UPDATES for hardcore Rombots like you:

    AND for all you 100,000 viewers per day of this site who represent the 80% or so non-hardcore Rombots and non-Romney fans, REMEMBER:

    IA + SC = The Nomination. Period. :)

    Iowa Republican Presidential Caucus Polling Data

    Poll Date Sample Cain Romney Paul Gingrich Perry Bachmann Santorum Huntsman Spread

    RCP Average 10/12 – 10/25 — 28.0 22.5 11.0 9.8 7.3 7.3 3.0 1.3 Cain +5.5

    South Carolina Republican Presidential Primary Polling Data

    Poll Date Sample Cain Romney Perry Paul Gingrich Bachmann Santorum Huntsman Spread

    RCP Average 10/11 – 10/25 — 28.7 23.0 11.0 8.0 7.7 5.0 1.5 1.0 Cain +5.7

  21. Massachusetts Conservative Says:

    Romney impresses House GOP at meeting:

    the former Massachusetts governor generally earned rave reviews from a set of lawmakers who have yet to make an endorsement in the GOP presidential primary

    “He hit it out of the ballpark,” said Rep. Aaron Schock (R-Ill.), who had expressed concern Tuesday about Romney’s ability to counter attacks from President Barack Obama’s reelection campaign. “He gave a stellar performance.”

    Sullivan said Romney described himself during the meeting as more of a libertarian during his days as Massachusetts governor and in a Senate campaign against Ted Kennedy.

    “[T]he response was when he became governor he said he’d leave things the way they were [on abortion] and then a bill came to his desk wanting the creation of embryos to destroy them and he said, ‘Look, I can’t do this,’” said Illinois Rep. Bobby Schilling. “Actually, I thought he covered it quite well today.”

    In a bit of a coup for Romney, he was introduced by Rep. Lamar Smith (R-Texas), a conservative on immigration policy who hails from GOP contender Rick Perry’s home state. The Romney campaign announced Smith’s endorsement on Wednesday.

    Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1011/66953.html#ixzz1bw0fR4IE

  22. 999MeansJobs.com Says:

    CraigS,

    Actually it all leads to The Fair Tax = EVEN MORE Jobs when Huck takes over in 2020 :)

    Click on my handle and learn, guy.

  23. Jeff Says:

    Hmmm… 328 people polled (small survey), margin of error of 5.5% (Cain is up 4% on Romney), national poll (not as relevant), and we have 5 state polls by CNN with Romney in the lead (although a couple of those are statistical ties also). Definitely not concerned with this poll. :)

  24. 999MeansJobs.com Says:

    21.

    Politico wants to see Obama beat Romney. As does the White House.

    But great news: the Tea Party and Conservatives will NOT let them pick OUR nominee this time.

  25. Smack1968 Says:

    Smackdaddy has a very important message for the following members of RACE42012.

    Matt MWS
    Teledude
    Craig for Huck

    Matt “MWS”,

    It’s time you come aboard the Newt Train and get off your Huntsman Bus. It’s almost like you have gotten comfortable sitting in your Hunstman Bus knowing that you can’t get hurt by supporting Jon…knowing he has no shot… so you have nothing to lose. It’s time you get off your couch and support an underdog with a fighting chance. I call on you Matt, to get off your ass and be the “NEWT” in our RACE42012 NEWT Coalition.

    Teledude,

    You will be the captain. You are the one who has spirtually spearheaded the Race42012 Newt Train. You are thirsting for a fight since your lady didn’t answer the bell.

    It will be Tele that will lead the men into battle against the ROMBOTS. It is written in the stars that a tele shall lead, so it shall be.

    Craig for Huck,

    It’s time for you to choose your 5th candidate and support the one who actually has some experience in fighting the Conservative fight against the Godless Liberals. You know deep down in your heart that we need a candidate who can articulate the Conservative message against the Rockefeller Romney.

    I call on Matt “MWS, Teledue & Craig for Huck, to join this epic battle between the Rombots and the non Rombots.

    We need Newt, Newt needs us.

    ARE YOU WITH ME???!!!!!!

    Gingrich/Blackburn 2012!!!

  26. Massachusetts Conservative Says:

    24

    Uh-huh. Except for one thing… THE HOUSE GOP WAS QUOTED in the article repeatedly. Quotes are facts. Fact is, Romney DOMINATED in the House GOP this morning.

  27. petunia Says:

    Nope not buying it. 328 “Republicans” Margin of error 5.5%!

    That has got to be the biggest margin of error I’ve seen yet!

    So a split of 20/24 is well within the margin of error.

    A 5.5 is an 11 point swing right? Do I understand that right?

    I haven’t seen Fox use this polling firm before either, they used to use someone else, why did they switch? They were pretty good before but since this is a new group who knows…

    Fox is trying to create a narrative where Romney is losing support. But there is nothing that should have cost him any support. Mitt has been very solid.

    There is so much Romney hate at Fox these days, I don’t trust them about much.

    There is also an internal inconsistency about favorables:

    Mitt is at 40% fav/ 36% not fav.
    Cain is at 33% fav/ 29% not fav.

    Does that make sense that Mitt has 7 points advantage in favorables and 4 points less than pick for candidate?

    That is a 12 point in consistency. I guess that is what happens with an 11 point swing in margin of error.

    I am not any kind of expert but doesn’t the favorable and the candidate pick usually mirror each other? Maybe not, but I would think there was some connection.

    Also, there is a big deal made out of Mormonism in the poll. How does being asked a couple of Mormon questions about if the church would run the government, or if Mormons can be trusted to have the same values and so forth, effect people’s answers?

    Is this a push poll?

    I think this is a push poll.

  28. Matt "MWS" Says:

    Smackman,

    Before you had rolled out your very official endorsement, I wish you had read this:

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/10/12/gingrich-faxes-doctors-in_n_759871.html

    Newt is to integrity what Perry is to intelligence.

  29. 999MeansJobs.com Says:

    15.

    Smacks,

    First. Welcome back!

    Second. You’re STILL mad because I won’t repect T-Paw or give him a job in the next administration?

    Third: Newt cheats.

  30. 999MeansJobs.com Says:

    No World Series tonight :(

    Starts back up tomorrow..

    Go Rangers! Do it for Perry! He needs it.

  31. 999MeansJobs.com Says:

    Matt S,

    Romney or Cain? Think fast!

  32. 999MeansJobs.com Says:

    http://race42012.com/2011/10/26/herman-cain-inspires-controversial-bumper-sticker/

  33. Smack1968 Says:

    Massachusetts Conservative,

    “Sullivan said Romney described himself during the meeting as more of a libertarian during his days as Massachusetts governor and in a Senate campaign against Ted Kennedy”

    What?

    What in the blue hell?

    So…let me get this straight. Romney thought of himself as a Libertarian during the time he signed Romneycare into law?

    Are you out of your mind Mitt???!!!!!

    So when Mitt ran for Senate he was a Pro-choice GOP liberal who was an independent during Reagan-Bush, who became a Libertarian while Gov……..who then became Mr. Social Conservative during the 2007-8 GOP Nomination battle, who is now Mr. Right of Center-Centrist who can win the Independents because he believes in Man Made Global Warming..doesn’t believe in the flat tax, and who can play spoons to the tune of Dixie, while at the same time eat cavier with the members of the Yacht Club in the Hamptons.

    Mitt’s neck must rest on a swivel.

    …ahhhhhhhhhh…..it feels good to be engaged in battle once again for the heart and soul of the Grand Old Party

  34. Craigs Says:

    New CNN/Time poll today shows Romney leading in Iowa, N.Hampshire, S.Carolina and Florida. Florida and N.Hampshire big

    CraigS

  35. 999MeansJobs.com Says:

    Matt S,

    I have a question for you..

    Are Catholics and Lutherans like me and you considered “Evangelicals” by the pollsters.

    Or a subset of our religions?

    I’m REALLY not sure how that even works.

    Example per today’s new poll:

    Cain is particularly popular among Republican primary voters who identify as being a part of the Tea Party: he captures 32 percent to Romney’s 8 percent among this group.

    Cain also has a wide 15 percentage-point advantage over both Romney and Gingrich among white evangelicals.

    Read more: http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2011/10/26/fox-news-poll-gop-primary-voters-get-on-cain-train/#ixzz1bw4xHyVe

  36. Smack1968 Says:

    Matt “MWS”

    Ahhh…That ain’t anything….We can sweep that under the rug.

    Craig,

    “Newt cheats”,

    Yes he does.

    Now are you guys with me or not!!!!

    Let’s do this thing.

    …Or are we just going to roll over for the Rockefellers?

    I await for your offical answers.

  37. 999MeansJobs.com Says:

    34

    Outliers, my golfing buddy. (Except just maybe NH)

  38. Matt "MWS" Says:

    Smacks,

    Sorry, I’ve got to take a pass. Newt can be entertaining, and even a little endearing. But he’s a moral black hole.

  39. Bob Hovic Says:

    Smack: Do you have a link for the quote in #33? Somehow, I don’t think ‘Libertarians for RomneyCare’ is going to get a lot of sign-ups.

  40. 999MeansJobs.com Says:

    36.

    Newt cheats while his wife is hospitalized which he takes further advantage of her illness by serving her the divorce papers in the hospital.

  41. Michael Says:

    I’m with Smack. I too am for Newt now after losing Pawlenty

  42. Michael Says:

    I think the personal morality argument has passed it’s time with candidates running for office. Clinton is proof. So are a slew of governors and senators. People can make issues of it; they will certainly. But who really cares. I’d rather unemployment go down to 4%, my taxes slashed to 30% or less and not be told how I should live my life.

  43. 999MeansJobs.com Says:

    Smacks,

    Who are you trying to recruit anyway at Race42012? The 90% Rombots here, the 3% Cainites, the 2% Libertarians, the 1.5% Perrywinkles, or the .5% Huntsmens?

    Folks, just 69 nights till Iowa! :)

  44. econ grad stud Says:

    I suspect we lose no matter who we nominate. With that in mind I’m thinking about supporting a nominee I wouldn’t actually prefer as President but would prefer so he cast recast the GOP.

    That’s why I’m leaning towards Gingrich. He’d not be a great President but I don’t expect any Republican to beat Obama in 2012.

    I think Romney and Huntsman would be mediocre Presidents. Sort of like Nixon without Watergate. The rest would probably be failures. However since I don’t expect any to win we might as well support someone who can do a PR job for the GOP.

  45. 999MeansJobs.com Says:

    Michael,

    Besides for all you Clinton apologists, consider the advantages for Newt to go WORLDWIDE with his affairs? (See #9 ;))

  46. 999MeansJobs.com Says:

    18

    Don’t be a silly goose. Michele is not going to pray you away or however you put it.

  47. Bob Hovic Says:

    Petunia (27): “Nope not buying it. 328 “Republicans” Margin of error 5.5%! That has got to be the biggest margin of error I’ve seen yet!”

    Well, in the last few weeks anyway. The Wall Street Journal poll dated 10/10 had 336 RVs, so roughly the same MoE. The week before that (10/2) the CBS News poll had 324.

    There’s nothing unusual about a sample of that size.

  48. econ grad stud Says:

    I suppose you could also support Ron Paul on the rationale I give for Gingrich as nominee. Paul would be an awful President but he might be an entertaining nominee.

    I expect he’d do well with the young with his support for legalizing prostitution and marijuana. He’d also be noticeably to the left of Obama on war. That would confuse liberals to no end.

  49. 999MeansJobs.com Says:

    25.

    Not to sure who this Craig for Huck is? But sounds pretty cool and is probable biding his time with the remaining STRONGEST social conservatives > Bach, Rick, and Cain ..
    while he patiently waits for the 2020
    HUCKABOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOM™

  50. 999MeansJobs.com Says:

    *too

  51. Joshua Says:

    #35 999MeansJobs:

    My understanding is that pollsters ask something like “Do you consider yourself an evangelical or born-again Christian?” Anyone who answers yes is classified as evangelical, regardless of whether they are Catholic or Protestant or any other kind of Christian. It’s based on self-reporting, not what church a person belongs to.

  52. Doug NYC GOP Says:

    I have some questions for any of the polling experts out there.

    I see many polls have different polling sizes and I understand the bigger the pool the more accurate the final numbers.

    I see many polls have different sample sizes. For example this Fox Poll has approx 350 but the CBS news poll yesterday was 1,400 I think.

    How do firms determine the size and is there a minimum standard?

    Can they stop polling when they get a desired result?

    Just curious about the whole process and how or what can be manipulated.

    Thanks in advance for any insights.

  53. Matt "MWS" Says:

    Craig,

    I think Joshua has it right in #51, but I suppose it’s possible that they only ask that question of Protestants. I believe they ask that question of everyone though, as the exit polls generally break it out in its own question, with something like 25% saying yes, and 75% saying no.

  54. Matt "MWS" Says:

    Doug,

    I can’t answer your question for certain, since I’ve never really been in the biz, but I think it varies by pollster. For instance, when Ras does his 3 day rolling average for the general, I think every day has 1000 respondents, so I assume they keep going until they get 1000 completed surveys. I’ve seen other pollsters come out with sequential polls with an identical sample size as well. Others seem to have more varied samples. These, I assume, just phone a pre-determined number, and the final number of completed surveys is left to chance.

    One thing I’ve noticed is as the election gets closer, sample sizes tend to go up. It is obviously much more expensive to poll 1000 people than it is to poll 300. Months ahead of time, pollsters and the news orgs that pay them seem not as picky about getting larger (and therefore more accurate) sample sizes.

  55. 999MeansJobs.com Says:

    Thanks, Josh and Matt :)

  56. Doug NYC GOP Says:

    Thanks Matt.

    I’m curious if they see results developing as they poll and can stop the process when they have a result which fits a line.

    Conspiracy Theorist/Horserace fixing fan.

  57. Matt "MWS" Says:

    Doug,

    I really don’t think so. Pollsters’ livelihoods depend on their credibility and accuracy. It simply doesn’t pay to just make crap up, unless they aren’t really polling as their primary business. Now some are certainly more accurate than others, and use better methods. Some weight demographics and party ID, while others don’t (that’s a hot topic of debate). But I don’t think any full time, nationally known pollsters (Ras, PPP, SUSA, Quinnipiac, Ipsos, Mason-Dixon, etc….) cook the books.

  58. 999MeansJobs.com Says:

    Matt,

    The only trouble about letting the pollee determine what “evangelical” really means though..is that it’s too subjective. Perhaps they’re only evangelical on Sundays or just use the term because it’s on the church’s sign sometimes. I wish they’d ditch that question altogether..asking mainline church questions only.

    As a Lutheran, I also think it’s not productive to argue over who’s right and who is not a Catholic. ;)

  59. MPC Says:

    There’s a much simpler reason for why young voters would want to support Ron Paul: they resent having to come of age in a country that has already spent a sizable chunk of their future. Ron Paul is the biggest deficit hawk in the group, without question. In that sense, his policies are demanding that the past generation pay for the exponentially-increasing debt they rang up. That’s the logical reason why the young would support Ron Paul – he does not advocate punishing them for the sins of their parents. His painful tightening would be far better for the average college kid’s future than would the mainstream policy choices.

    I’d say the real reason, though, is that my generation is deeply skeptical of the world and Ron Paul just fits that well. He’s an anti-establishment and something of a hero to most young conservatives it seems. I don’t know anyone who supports him because they like the idea of prostitution and marijuana though I’m sure you can find someone. Sincere, genuine, honest, are far more likely to be heard.

    Ron Paul despite being an insurgent outsider reflects really the heart of conservatism. Nations should live within their means, people reap what they sow, moral hazards are subsidization of evil, and irresponsibility should be punished.

  60. petunia Says:

    47.

    Okay but from my Statics class a million years ago, a sample under 1000 is simply not relieable!!!

    And out of a country of millions? A few hundred people?

    That CNN poll got close to 1000 for each of the 4 states it polled!

    Also, for those who went to the Fox pages on this poll, when did they start asking if Mormons had horns? Before or after they asked who you wanted as President? (Hyberbole people… I know that wasn’t the questions but it might as well have been.)

    What is the definition of a push poll anyway?

    Isn’t it where you ask some questions to plant doubts or lead the subject toward an answer?

    If you are basically not thinking about religion then someone says…. what ever it was, “Do Mormons have values like human beings or are they more like blood sucking aliens?” You don’t think some people are alarmed by the thought that a Mormon might have more in common with the blood sucking aliens than normal people?

    Then they say, “Hey this Mormon guy is running for President, what do you think of that?”

    I wonder…. have all the pollesters been planting doubts about Romney all year?

  61. 999MeansJobs.com Says:

    Btw, Cain just finished a long segment on Fox’s Hannity show.

    Herman truly KNOWS conservatism. And it’s kinda refreshing how well he (and Huck) communicate the principles in comparison to Perry and Bush who are just as conservative but stumble with the wording often.

    Cain/Huck 2012-2020
    Huck/Rubio 2020-2028

    Fair Tax..here we come!

  62. Matt "MWS" Says:

    Craig,

    But the very nature of polls is self-identifying. Who’s to say who is a “conservative” or a “Democrat”? The respondent decides for himself. That’s pretty much how it always works. Very few pollster inject their own opinions, values, and definitions of terms and make the respondent “prove” he is this or that. The basic premise has always been, “As far as we’re concerned, if you think you’re liberal, then you’re liberal.” Besides, they wouldn’t have the time to make everyone “prove” that their self-identifyers are accurate.

    As for evangelicals, it’s kind of like race and being hispanic. Hispanics can be white (Alex Rodriguez), mestizo (Albert Pujols) or black (Sammy Sosa). Similarly evangelicals can be Lutheran, Baptist, etc….. or not. Objectively, I would say that one cannot truly be a Catholic and evangelical (under common definitions of the term), but pollster can’t force those kinds of judgements.

  63. Bob Hovic Says:

    Matt/Doug: Another factor in sample size is that a poll of Republicans is often a subset of a general poll. This Fox poll is an example — the full sample was 904, but the 328 Republicans were asked about their preference in the primary. If they consistently use a full sample of about 900, their Republican sample will vary a bit within the 30%-40% range.

    Also, as Matt alluded to, cost is a bigger factor for live interview polls as compared to robo-calls. Rasmussen, who does robo-calls, can use big samples (e.g., 1000) more easily than can Fox, which does live interviews.

    As far as quitting when they get a desired result — sure, they could. But why bother? If you’re going to do that, why not save your money and just make the numbers up? As Research 2000 was doing for Kos.

  64. Husky Says:

    whats the over/under on how many days until Craig for Huck/Bachmann/Perry/Cain starts supporting Newt Gingrich. I bet it’s by Thanksgiving.

  65. Matt "MWS" Says:

    Petunia,

    The sample size determines MoE, and the size of the universe it represents is completely irrelevant, unless the sample actually approaches the total universe it represents in size.

    Sampling 1000 people in Illinois for a poll about Illinois will have the same MoE as sampling 1000 in the United States, for a poll about the United States. That might seem a bit counter intuitive, but it’s true.

    Statistically, there is really no significant difference between polling one person out of 100,000 and polling one person out of 2,000,000. As long as it’s random, it all comes out in the wash.

  66. petunia Says:

    Okay Bob, answer about the push poll possibility.

    They will likely claim those questions were after the person said who they wanted… but they might also say the question order was random… which means a good share of the people polled get all worked up over Mormonism just before they answer who they want to vote for.

    I think that skewers the result.

    And I think anything FoxNews can do to keep Romney out they will do. For years they have not said his name at Fox without a sneer.

    O’Reilly is the only one who kept any emotional distance.

  67. Smack1968 Says:

    55+

    Cain %22
    Gingrich %19
    Romney %18

    I smell a Newt Surge!!!

  68. Bob Hovic Says:

    Petunia (60): “Okay but from my Statics class a million years ago, a sample under 1000 is simply not relieable!!!

    If that’s what they taught you, you ought to ask them for your money back. A poll of the US population with a sample of 328 is reliable with a 95% confidence factor at a MoE of 5.5% (as noted on the poll itself). 95% confidence is the accepted norm for political polling.

  69. Matt "MWS" Says:

    Bob,

    “Another factor in sample size is that a poll of Republicans is often a subset of a general poll. This Fox poll is an example — the full sample was 904, but the 328 Republicans were asked about their preference in the primary.”

    Good point. That’s an easy way for the pollster to save money. So you ask 1000 registered voters if they approve of the President, then ask the self-identified Republicans who they support for the nomination. Sometimes political polls include non-political stuff, if someone is paying for it. “What is your favorite brand of beer?” etc…..

  70. Matt "MWS" Says:

    Petunia,

    They don’t ask the questions randomly, they ask them in order. They only thing they generally rotate methodically are the listed available answers (Romney, Cain, Huntsman, Gingrich, etc….), so as not to bias a result by listing the same guy first every time. But the questions (are you male/female, are you registered to vote, who do you support, etc…..) are always asked in order.

  71. Kringle Says:

    I think Romney needs to go on Fox more…Cain has a cot in Carl Cameron’s office, b/c he is on every day!

  72. 999MeansJobs.com Says:

    Husky,

    Newt is not a strong SoCon in my book, or in any other human’s.

    I only support the STRONGEST SoCon and whoever that is – is no concern to me when it comes to defeating Obama. Period.

  73. Bob Hovic Says:

    Matt is right — the question on Republican preference was #12, the question about Mormons was #19.

  74. 999MeansJobs.com Says:

    71.

    That was (and in a way, still is) Huck’s strategy circa Iowa ’08.

    FREE media. ANY media. AND Often.

  75. Bob Hovic Says:

    By the way, the term ‘push poll’ is often misused. A great many people use it, of course, simply to discredit any poll with results they don’t like. But really a push poll is not a poll at all — it is a way of doing negative campaigning under the guise of doing a poll. Example:

    CALLER: Who do you support for Mayor, Smith or Jones?
    VOTER: Smith.
    CALLER: Would you still vote for Smith if you were aware that he beats his wife when he’s drunk?

  76. 999MeansJobs.com Says:

    62.

    That makes sense.

  77. 999MeansJobs.com Says:

    75.

    They used that on Bush (the drunk part). Almost worked.

  78. Spenza Says:

    #10. What are you talkin about Smack?? Mitt’s had competition of all sorts and had successfully hurdled over all. Newt is not even competition.

  79. Texas Conservative Says:

    Sounds like 999meansjobs.com should just wait for the general and then support the nominee. All of your switching between candidates is giving me whiplash.

  80. Texas Conservative Says:

    Looks like Herman Cain and Too Soon To Say won this poll because they both gained 7 & 6 respectively.

    My answer would still be None of the Above.

    Really unbelievable that none of these candidates has me wanting to vote for them.

  81. Matt "MWS" Says:

    I actually received a real push poll in the 2010 cycle. Here in Illinois, we had a moderate Republican nominee (Mark Kirk) for Senate. The poll, which was sponsored by some affiliate of the DNC, identified me as a conservative. Then it made a statement to the effect, “Are you aware that Republican Mark Kirk supports abortion rights and favors gun control, and that Libertarian candidate X is pro-life and pro-second Amendment?” Then it asked me who I’d support.

    Obviously, the purpose of that poll was to get conservative Republicans to vote for the no hoper Libertarian. True push polls broadcast out to huge numbers of people, because they aren’t interested in an accurate sample. Rather, they are interested in pushing a message.

    It would be a complete waste of time to do a national push poll on 300-some people.

  82. petunia Says:

    Okay well it seems to me that those Mormon questions were very much the same as asking if you still like Bush if he drinks…

    And I am so distrustful of FoxNews now that I believe they would push pull this race and that they would fake a poll.

    The reason Romney isn’t on Fox like Cain is… FOXNews hates Romney!!!!

    Karl Cameron cannot even say Romney without a sneer in his voice.

    Same with Shepherd Smith!!! Sneer sneer sneer.

    And some woman… the other day I can’t remember her name, she isn’t a biggie but she was just insulting!!!

    And that one Wall Street loser on the Five. Smoke comes out his ears at the mention of Romney’s name.

    And if someone says something positive they get jumped and mauled until they take it back!!!

    I have come to hate Fox. And I doubt I will ever voluntarily listen to Rush or Levin ever again. The bias and the lies is constant.

    I can’t see how Romney can win in the middle of this much hate.

  83. Matt "MWS" Says:

    Petunia,

    I think you’re getting a little too wrapped up into this, and seeing things in people’s faces, and hearing things in their voices that aren’t there, because you’re so defensive.

    Once you latch onto an idea like that, your mind will perceive the evidence.

  84. 999MeansJobs.com Says:

    82.

    Petunia,

    You should try CNN mostly or MSNBC sometimes to get more of the pro-Romney stuff. Say, compared to Cain, Perry, or Bachmann.

    Although I think Fox is the most fair and balanced, of course OVERALL.

  85. 999MeansJobs.com Says:

    82. cont…

    I don’t blame you about Rush and Levin who hated my candidate, Huck with a passion last cycle. I boycotted them for about two plus years and have only recenly gone back to hear them daily tear down Romney and tout the true conservatism CAIN, PERRY, and BACHMANN the most.

    And it helped that Rush has backtracked a lot on Huck recently — and kinda admits he was wrong for backing Romney last cycle over Huck. As for Levin who equates Huck with Marx, I can only take him in small doses although he loves Perry, Cain, and Bachmann/Palin.

  86. 999MeansJobs.com Says:

    79.

    Of course, I will support the nominee no matter what (WILL YOU??? ;)) — but I do have my FAV FIVE SOCONS that I am the most enthusiastic about.

    Cain/Huck/Pence
    Perry
    Bachmann

  87. Doug NYC GOP Says:

    Thanks Bob and Matt for your responses. Appreciate it.

  88. 999MeansJobs.com Says:

    When a strong SoCon like Huck drops out, you don’t pout and drop the cause.

    You study up and pick the next best one.

    Don’t give up!!! We’re trying to save lives!!!

  89. LV Says:

    #82…..I read a while back, I think it was in political that this new pollster for FOX is Democratic and good friends of Dave Carney, who is Rick Perry’s top aide and campaign strategest…..It’s so easy to find this stuff nowadays on google.

  90. Firecracker (Romney/West) Says:

    I’m watching Sean Hannity and want to throw something at the TV. The SOB now touts Cain as the new frontrunner based on the National Fox News Poll and the Quinnapac Ohio poll showing Cain leading.

    But Sean COMPLETELY ignores the CNN polls released towards showing Romney leading in the FOUR FIRST states — IA, NH, SC, FL.

    I am sick of Fox News. Fair and Balanced MY ASS!

  91. Keith Price Says:

    90. Remember, that Romney kind of likes not being the front runner. He gets less scrutiny that way. The front runner of the week takes the arrows and Mitt smiles on the way to the election.

    When Perry became the newest front runner, one of Mitt’s managers said, when asked about it, “Well, he’s welcome to it!”

    And, I think the reason Mitt isn’t on Fox so much right now is because he’s trying to stay out of the spotlight. He’s out there doing the real work behind the scenes, shoring up support, building the organizations.

    Fox will come around. (Most of the personalities, anyway.) Right now, as has been stated, they need the controversy and Mitt knows none of them can hold up to scrutiny, so letting them be the focus in the news means others will vet them and start to tear them down. That way Mitt can stay above it, for the most part.

  92. jarvis Says:

    Smack1968 Says:
    October 26th, 2011 at 8:45 pm

    55+

    Cain %22
    Gingrich %19
    Romney %18

    I smell a Newt Surge!!!

    If romney can’t get the evangelical vote, Newt won’t either.

  93. LV Says:

    #44 econ grad stud ….

    Are you kidding? Nixon was one of the best Presidents we’ve ever had!

  94. Frank Says:

    You mean to tell me that after all the hoopla, 86% of the people want someone other than Cain?

    Cain must have Romney disease. Will we ever get a front-runner that does not have a disease?

    Or maybe Romney actually has a solid foundation of support on which to build, and Herman is just the flavor of the month.

  95. aspire Says:

    Perry’s almost dropped sub-Paul. When you drop below Paul, you can’t be considered A-list. B-list at best. Who is running Perry’s campaign, it’s been historically poorly run. 8 percent of Americans live in Texas and Perry’s polling at 10 percent. He’s losing in Iowa and thinks attacking Romney will give him the win, despite dropping in the polls each time he does. He’s not prepared for the debates, and has no command of the facts or issues.

  96. 999MeansJobs.com Says:

    94.

    Actually, it’s 76% that Herman’s’s not getting .. for Willard, it’s 80%!

    But who’s counting? 8)

    95.

    Ironic, isn’t it? ;) The more Perry falls, the more Cain rises. Rombots seriously need enemy #1, Perry back up to at least 15% — or Cain LIKELY sweeps Iowa & South Carolina which since 1980 means the nomination. Romney can’t beat an acccomplished conservative governor or businessman one on one, be it Huck, Trump, Perry, or Cain.

    And Cain may be the toughest one of all. No baggage!

  97. petunia Says:

    This needs some work to fit on a bumper sticker… but:

    “End America’s decline, with Romney’s 59!!!”

    Or

    “STOP the decline, vote Romney’s 59!!!”

    Yes we can?

  98. Frank Says:

    97. Romney is the cure!

  99. Keith Price Says:

    96. No, I’m perfectly happy with Cain where he is and Perry where he is.

  100. Keith Price Says:

    97. How about

    “I’m Fine with 59″

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