May 25, 2011

Rick Perry Refuses to Rule Out Presidential Run

T-Paw hardest hit?

Texas Gov. Rick Perry just can’t seem to shut the door on a 2012 presidential run.

With conservatives aching for more choices in the approaching 2012 Republican primary, Perry declined Tuesday to rule out a White House bid during a press conference about a new anti-abortion measure. Also Tuesday, his top strategist told the Tribune that the governor is, naturally, “thinking about it” given the flattering comments made recently by some in the GOP, although he “doesn’t see any change in his direction.”

I’m pretty much staunchly in the Pawlenty camp at this point, which is why I am more than a little worried about the manner in which Perry may be able to effectively compete with Pawlenty for the meat in the middle of the GOP electorate, the folks who want an electable conservative candidate. We’re nearing a point where Pawlenty would pretty much have these voters to himself. Moreover, with recent rumors that Palin and Giuliani are taking a second look at 2012, Pawlenty could simply hope for a Bachmann/Palin catfight in Iowa, and a Rudy/Romney grudge match in New Hampshire to clear the way for T-Paw in the early states. Then it would be on to South Carolina, where the likely endorsement of Nikki Haley would make a Pawlenty victory a done deal, and would set the stage for a rout on Super Tuesday.

But all of that changes if Perry enters the race. Indeed, Perry would probably be a game-changer for a lot of prospective candidates, as he would eat into the Bachmann/Palin evangelical support in Iowa, the Palin/Cain Tea Party support, the Giuliani/Palin tough-guy support, etc. He would also fill the void for a Southerner, making him downright dangerous in South Carolina.

If Perry gets in, he probably has a decent shot at the nomination. That would result in a deep red Texan with revolutionary rhetoric attempting to win suburban women in Bucks County, Pennsylvania in the general election. I am more than a tad skeptical that someone like Perry would play in Pennsylvania. Pawlenty, meanwhile, would have a pretty good shot at taking the Keystone State, especially if he named Sen. Pat Toomey as his running mate. Pawlenty has a proven ability to win the Northern suburbs. Perry’s ability to do the same has yet to be tested.

A more likely result, though, is that Perry and Pawlenty split the “mainstream conservative” vote and allow the showdown that we’re all dreading: Romney v. Palin or Bachmann. That sort of race would easily take on the same dynamics as Castle v. O’Donnell, only at the national level. We all saw how that turned out for Republicans.

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52 Responses to “Rick Perry Refuses to Rule Out Presidential Run”

  1. Jon Huntsman for Obama Says:

    LOL

    Watch Jon Huntsman speaking about Sarah Palin!!!!!

    especially the first 5 seconds!!!!!! What a STIFF LOL!!!!

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jAc1I–I8Os&feature=related

  2. Jon Huntsman for Obama Says:

    Dave, you cannot compare Romney V. Palin to the dreaded…

    Castle V. O’Donnell.

    Romney V. Palin is not

    RINO V. buffoon

    it is

    Strong leader V. Strong Conservative.

  3. Still Hurting Says:

    The addition of ANY new name completely scrambles the possible outcomes.The party is driven to have a balanced race, as candidates fill the vacuums, and even as candidates who have opted out reserve the right to exercise their influence. Perry is just the latest example.

    But I can’t imagine that in the end, with so much dynamic, the final two will be the ones who run the strongest campaign, build the strongest organizations, and avoid the most mistakes. Weakness and unforced errors will winnow the field.

  4. Adam X (Beat Romney First, Then Obama) Says:

    A more likely result, though, is that Perry and Pawlenty split the “mainstream conservative” vote and allow the showdown that we’re all dreading: Romney v. Palin or Bachmann.

    Maybe. But Palin has tanked. She was in the 60’s for the GOP nomination after the ’08 election, and now she is (at best) in the low teens. Romney can’t seem to buy the love he needs from the GOP electorate. Ten million later and he’s still (as of yesterday) at 16 nationally. Even assuming the poll is an outlier, he’s not much above 20.

    What if Perry gets in and completely obliterates the rest of the field in SC? That’s certainly a plausible outcome. If that happens then Romney is toast and the intraparty feud is going to have an outcome before it even gets hot and heavy.

  5. We Need Palin Says:

    Hey, I have been following this site for quite awhile, but have never commented. Although, I do like the information this site provides, I just can’t get over the fact of how harsh it is to Governer Palin. With the exception of a few good people here, everyone seems to attack Gov. Palin on a regular basis. I seem to think if she gets in, which I think is very likely now, she has a very easy shot at winning the nomination. Anyway, I do not think Gov. Palin equals O’Donnell. Palin has the experience to lead, a quality America is very much lacking right now. As for Gov. Perry, I don’t think he will get in, although, I do like him a lot.

  6. Newby Says:

    Perry would redefine the race and become an instant front runner. He has the name recognition, fund raising network, and conservative credentials to take the nomination. He does what no one in the field currently does…unite all the factions of the GOP.

  7. nowandlater Says:

    Trump will jump in and will skip Iowa. His only purpose is to stop Romney. I will share something later on this matter when it happens. It’s kind of interesting.

  8. nowandlater Says:

    Let’s just say the N.H. will be a bloodbath for Romney’s campaign because of Trump. How much could you do to someone if you were willing to spend 50 million to do so in one state?

  9. Texas Conservative Says:

    I have said this before during the primaries here in Texas that Perry is not that well liked. He is a politician through and through. Can’t imagine that the rest of Texas would be happy having him abandon ship one year into his primary win.

  10. LV Says:

    If Rick Perry jumps in the race, that would be a total of five Tea Party Candidates.

  11. TEX Says:

    Hurricane Sarah clobbers Perry in Texas and yet you talk about
    the guy like he’s a force or somerhing.

    Dave,you and Matt always talk about your wishful thinking in abstract.

    T-Paw is bland,boring to ZZZ…
    He’s accused to cause $6 billion deficit,Cap & Tax all the way,Mr mediocre
    at best.

    There is nothing there,after 2 years of campaign he’s still 3%-5%.Guys,give it up,T-paw isT-Yawned.

  12. Joe Hanna Says:

    Anyone who argues Paul Ryan should not get into this race…just watch this and tell me you dont get the shivers. Oooooo. Bubba and Ryan talkin like peers backstage….

    http://hotair.com/archives/2011/05/25/bill-clinton-to-paul-ryan-the-democrats-need-to-do-something-about-medicare/

  13. Smack1968 Says:

    Dave,

    I haven’t made up my mind on this yet. I can be persuaded either way at this point if a Perry candidacy hurts TPAW and by how much. As of right now, I’m thinking that Perry hurts TPAW in Iowa, but he probably hurts Bachmann more so. I think where Perry would really hurt TPAW is in South Carolina, if TPAW can get is Iowa victory which would give him a ticket for the third contest..and the 1st primary in the South.

    I’m assuming it really doesn’t matter how Perry would do in Iowa, he would still play in South Carolina even if he came in a 4th or 5th place….so yes he would TPAW at that point. Iowa is a different question. Would Perry come off as bad as Phil Gramm of Texas did in the state of Iowa, or could he could do better?

    Like I say, I can be persuaded either way and I’m interested in what other people here think of the possible Perry candidacy. I’m pretty sure Bachmann would hate this developement….but..hhhuuuuummmmm.

  14. Newby Says:

    Perry would reshape the entire field. He would be one of the favorites in Iowa, competitive in NH, THE favorite on SC, one of the favorites in Florida, and then the favorite in the slew of southern states on Super Tuesday. Perry fills the southern/sun belt/all around conservative/unite the party vacum.

    He has an impressive record to run on that distinctly contrasts Obama’s putrid record.

  15. MarqueG Says:

    What a scream. We’ve got just about anyone, plus his barber, and the barber’s dog “not ruling out running” at this point.

    It seems to me that the political press and national punditry are bored, underworked, and floating each and every rumor they vaguely recall having heard down at the bar last night. And what pol worth his salt isn’t willing to talk and talk and talk without giving details while speaking to the press?

    This phase of the pre-Iowa, pre-Ames race should be named “The Long Tease.”

  16. Rombot Says:

    It took you all of what, two days to become a staunch Pawlenty supporter? That is pretty impressive.

  17. Somone You Know Says:

    Dave G is like the Dick Morris of commentary: hopping on whatever trend he sees at the moment, trying to sound like the guy in the room who knows what’s really up. He’s almost always wrong, and yet he continues to be taken seriously because he’s quite articulate.

    You could take a Dave G post from a few months back and it could have a full-on battle with a Dave G post from today.

  18. LV Says:

    ….I wouldn’t doubt if Dick Armey from the Tea Party Patriots is the one encouraging Perry…..He would be happy to carry someone else’s water in order to derail other candidates.

  19. Adam X (Beat Romney First, Then Obama) Says:

    18,

    I think you’re probably right…and if you are, GOOD. Romney is just bad news. We’re not gonna motivate the grassroots with Romney.

  20. Bobinator Says:

    Adam, Romney is GREAT NEWS! The grassroots will indeed get motivated by competence. Romney is not the moderate you like to paint him as.

    As for Trump, I don’t know what to think of comment 7. Why would Trump have anything against Romney? After all, you seem to think Romney is a RINO and Trump is definately a RINO, so why derail Romney’s campaign?

  21. Rombot Says:

    This is terrible analysis. Sorry. You haven’t improved any since your days as a staunch Daniels supporter.

  22. Rombot Says:

    6 – In what universe?

  23. LV Says:

    AdamX #19…..So you’re all for a spoiler candidates taking the top Candidate like Romney, or a candidate like Pawlwnty out? Why would you want to make it easy for Obama to win re-election?

  24. Rombot Says:

    Adam X, would you back Palin, Trump or Bachmann over Romney?

  25. Adam X (Beat Romney First, Then Obama) Says:

    20,

    Grassroots want competence…but they want competence in implementing conservative policy .

    The FreedomWorks folks are right. There is no groundswell of conservative support for Mitt.

  26. Adam X (Beat Romney First, Then Obama) Says:

    24,

    No. Because I don’t think Palin, Trump or Bachmann can win. Romney doesn’t repel the center but I really worry about his ability to garner favor with the right. We can’t have another “they all suck so I’m gonna stay home!” election like we did in 2008.

  27. Adam X (Beat Romney First, Then Obama) Says:

    23,

    Who said anything about a spoiler? Perry would beat Mitt in a one on one fight.

  28. Jeff Fuller Says:

    DaveG just created a new oxymoron by stating he’s “pretty much staunchly in Pawlenty camp at this point” . . . lol

    Stauch support budding up over the last week!!!

    Like that girl that you love so much after the first 4 turned you down for the Prom date, eh?

    It’s like they say, “love the one you’re with” I guess for T-Paw’s new supporters.

  29. nowandlater Says:

    #20. Ok, I was going to save it but..I think I will share it now and let others laugh or consider it. It is a speculative observation. Here it goes:

    1. After Romney lost the nomination, the Miss America (or Miss USA) Pagent was held in Las Vegas (the pageant owned by Trump). Well, it was host by Donny and Marie Osmond (gasp Mormons). Well, if you follow the reading of the final ten contestants. There are read in this order:

    M-Maine
    O-Oregons
    R-Rhode Island
    M-Massachusetts
    O-Oklahoma
    N-Nebraska
    S-South Caroline
    F-Florida
    U-Utah
    T-Texas

    *Note, I could I got one or two states wrong but the anchronym still is legit.

    What the heck does that mean? Mormons, F.U. Trump? I found that incidence very very telling about Mr. Trump and time will tell if he truly has some sort of vendatta against Romney because of it.

  30. Rombot Says:

    26 – Well at least you are partly sane. I was getting worried there for a while.

  31. Rombot Says:

    25 – There is no groundswell of anti-Mitt support either. Who exactly does have a ground swell of support out there? There is only one candidate that consistently leads the polls.

  32. nowandlater Says:

    In addition, I think Trump is willing to sink the G.O.P. to insure that a Mormon doesn’t win the Presidency. That’s why you saw him push the birther issue and college transcripts. He knew it would taint the GOP as racist and would effectively put an extra burden on the party to rebuild its image.

    Look for him to jump back in and fuel the flames of nuttiness and put a target squarely on Romney using tens of millions of his wealth. That’s my prediction.

  33. Rombot Says:

    29 – LOL! You will fit in well on this site.

  34. nowandlater Says:

    Watch the 2008 pageant. It’s pretty interesting how the names are read in that exact order. Coincidence, NOT!

  35. LV Says:

    Adam X….Freedom works led by a has been hypocrite like Dick Armey is a radical offshoot of the Tea Party…They don’t care what they do to this country as long as they hold on to their power….even it means Obama is re-elected.

  36. Adam X (Beat Romney First, Then Obama) Says:

    31,

    Right. But that’s like having Michael Jordan playing in the same league of wheel chair basketball with special olympians.

    Mitt has the money. Mitt has the name ID. Mitt has the experience.

    Mitt shouldn’t be at 20 in the polling average.

  37. nowandlater Says:

    Mitt’s ceiling the mid-30’s. He’s going to lose. It may take a bit, but once the anti-Mitt emerges (Huntsman please) then he will crater.

  38. LV Says:

    #32 %33…WOW….O.K then… Lets get our tin foil hats on and figure this thing out!

  39. nowandlater Says:

    #38. Watch it and make your judgement. Just note my prediction down now and observe Trump’s behavior over the next 18 months and see if it is consistent with my rationale.

  40. Chris L. Says:

    Dave,

    I would not be so sure that Perry would do that well in Iowa for several reasons:

    1) He is high octane Texan through and through. Think the persona of J.R. Ewing. The Iowa Caucus goers tend to be turned off by high octane, glamour, power candidates, e.g., Reagan, Romney, Rudy, or Perry (that tough talking Texas oilman is going to snuff out our ethanol industry).

    2) While Perry is pretty much a social conservative, he is not likely to play that well among the hard core evangelicals in Iowa primarily because, unlike G. W. Bush (also a Texan and from a rich patrician family), Perry does not have a “Jesus Christ pulled me up out of the gutter and turned my life around” conversion born-again story which is very important with those folks. And, btw, last time around Perry endorsed Rudy.

    Perry is without doubt a strong Constitutional conservative and can come across as tough and hardline, but as you mention, that is not likely to play very well with suburban women. One thing I can assure you is that he is no Bush. In fact, there is no love lost between Perry and the Bushes.

  41. LV Says:

    #37.You should wait before predicting Romney’s doom ….Because it’s not gonna happen……He has too many backers, too many donors backing him.

  42. Rombot Says:

    Dick Armey a grassroots tea party leader? LOL! That is funny. You can’t get more Washington establishment than Dick Armey.

  43. nowandlater Says:

    Watch Trump buy all the T.V. spots in N.H. and slander him 24×7. I predict Romney will lose Iowa and N.H. He will be tagged team again.

  44. LV Says:

    Nowandlater: #39

    So, do you think Trump orchestrated Romney’s 2008’loss or do you think it was projecting the future? Just wondering….

  45. Adam X (Beat Romney First, Then Obama) Says:

    Trump got in the race to HELP Romney. He raised the birther issue knowing there would be blowback and he wants the GOP to make amends and demonstrate tolerance by voting for a Mormon.

    There. Take that.

    Since we’re passing the tinfoil hats around… :)

  46. LV Says:

    #42 Rombot….Yes, Dick Armey is a co-chair of the Freedomworks/Patriot Tea Party, homebase is Texas….Up until 2009 he was even a Lobbyist for a big Health Insurance Company and also a Lobbyist for a Pharmaceutical company, Now he wants to take down Romney for MassCare….Even if he is a big Federalist proponent.

  47. nowandlater Says:

    #44. Trump’s little display in 2008 only revealed how he feels about Mormons and had nothing to do with the 2008 campaign. But I do project this incident on his behavior in relatiion to the 2012 campaign.

  48. LV Says:

    #47 nowandlater;

    I do think there are political groups like the Bushies and other Washington elites who don’t want Romney to be President because he’s not part of the old establishment….Romney is an independent thinker who has new ideas, who would surround himself with Washington outsiders instead of Washington Bureaucrats.

    I think there is a war within the GOP between Romney and his backers and the old guard Washington elites.

  49. pea-jay Says:

    #48. Although he is an outsider geographically, I do not consider Mitt a political outsider. He has run before, he has his DC establishment supporters and a legitimate network of support from inside the beltway he will draw upon. There isnt anything wrong with that, but if he tries to run as an outsider, it’s going to look less authentic than everyone other than Huntsman. On the other hand, I have to believe a Romney transition would be smoother than any other Republican-elect just for that very reason.

  50. John Galt Says:

    My favorite quote of this post “where Pawlenty would pretty much have these voters to himself.”

    That was just funny. Tpaw has not demonstrated that he can get “these voters” or any voters. tpaw is a mccain type. he is not going to naturally appeal to bachman, palin, perry supporters. With them all out he has a better shot than romney and that is why huck getting out really helped him, but once they jump in and take up that right side of the party he will struggle to overcome mitt who seems to have a hold on the voters who tpaw would more naturally fit with.

    if palin gets in i think it hurts tpaw and i think bachmann stays out. that leaves tpaw trying to somehow get some attention where palin is an attention magnet and romney has perfect name id and a pile of money. I would think tpaw would be happiest of hte field stayed the way it is right now. anymore more clutter and it will just be harder and harder for him to stand out and expand his appeal.

  51. John Galt Says:

    25. that is exactly why I support mitt. competence with conservative bent. that is why i originally got on his bandwagon and have not jumped off.

  52. Rombot Says:

    49 – Romney has never had anything to do with Washington.

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