May 14, 2011

Huckabee and the Fairfax Four

  9:26 am

If indeed Huckabee announces that he won’t be running for President (and I’m still not convinced) we may soon be able to test the elite thesis that only one of the “serious” candidates (Romney, Pawlenty, Daniels, and Huntsman) can possibly win the nomination.  Here’s why.  A month ago, Nate Silver wrote a much cited article dividing the Republican field into the Fairfax Five and the Factional Five.  The Fairfax Five was the four “serious” candidates I mentioned above + Barbour (who is not running).  The Factional Five were Palin, Bachmann, Trump, Gingrich, and Paul.  He noted, at the time, that the Factional Five were polling better than the Fairfax Five.  At that time, the Factional Five were netting 44% of the primary vote, on average, while the Fairfax Five were netting 22% of the vote.  The state of affairs today, without Barbour, is scarcely any better for the “serious” candidates.  In RCP’s poll average, the Factional Five clock in at 42.8% while the Fairfax Four are at around 24.2 (Huntsman doesn’t register so I’m putting him at 1%).

The curious ingredient in the primary, as Nate Silver noted, was Mike Huckabee.  Despised by the practical Republican elites and the conservative opinionmakers alike, Huckabee fit neatly in neither group.  So what happens if Huckabee’s not running?  Those of us inclined to favor the Fairfax Four have been entirely too blithe about our chances and strangely dismissive of a group of candidates who seem to command the loyalities of a plurality of Republican voters.  Still, with Huckabee in the race or maybe in the race or sort of in the race, we had good reasons for hope.  The Fairfax Four, while polling pretty anemically, are likely to have better organizations and more money.  The Fairfax Four are also, to a very great degree, interchangeable.  Even if there’s a plurality or even a majority of the party that pines for a non-traditional nominee, there seems to be no great consensus on what that nominee should like ideologically.  If Pawlenty and Daniels start to fade, it is a fair better than all or nearly all of their support will migrate towards either Huntsman or Romney (likely whichever one is in front).  It seems far less likely that one of Paul’s supporters might look at the state of the race in November ’11, note that Paul doesn’t seem to be able to get above 8 or 9%, and strategically vote for another Factional Candidate.  In other words, to a certain extent, the Factional Five belong to different factions.

Huckabee’s exit (or potential exit) complicates things considerably.  Because while it’s true that the Factional Five are not as ideologically and temperamentally homogenuous as the Fairfax Four, they nonetheless have some overlap.  Palin collapsed and Trump sprung up to supplant her.  Trump is collapsing and, suddenly, Gingrich is in double digits again, while a potentially new Factional member- Herman Cain- has received considerable buzz which may soon show up in polls.  We’re in a game of whack of mole.  And this means Huckabee matters.  This means that in a head-to-head matchup between a Fairfax candidate and a Factional candidate, much will depend on the Huckabee supporters.  Are they mostly casual Republicans who know Huckabee as the funny guy with the TV show (more likely to tilt towards the Fairfax candidates when given a choice) or are they largely evangelical, blue-collar conservatives (more likely to tilt towards the Factional candidates)?   Or are they some combination thereof?  Elite opinion insists that the sensible Republican party would never, ever, nominate one of the Factional candidates- but so far, elite opinion is not borne out by the numbers.  The Factional Five are doing very, very well.  When one of their number falters, another seems to fill the void.  At some point there will be a Factional primary and a Fairfax primary, with most of the supporters of both camps gravitating towards the strongest of their number.  If the Fairfax Four pick someone ill-situated to court the Huckabee supporters- if Bachmann is more appealing to the average Huckabee supporter than Daniels or Romney or Huntsman or Pawlenty- elite opinion will have proven itself to be disastrously wrong.



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I think a vast majority of voters have no idea who they will support in the primaries next spring, so looking at poll numbers today is basically useless. As for the factional five, none of them are electable against Obama and that will play a huge role in the nomination battle. It always has.



I could certainly see one of the Factional Five gaining enough ground to become a semi-serious contender. I've been looking at previous races, and it seems like the Factional Five could well be 2012's version of 1996 Pat Buchanan. Everyone knew Buchanan could never win the nomination, but that didn't stop him from becoming one of the main contenders for the nomination and having a dramatic influence on the race. After all, in 1996 Buchanan and his forces destroyed the candidacy of Phil Gramm, who had been considered one of the main contenders for the nomination.

If I had to bet money, I'd say that Herman Cain eventually becomes the Factional Five's main candidate. He really seems to have impressed many observers at the S.C. debate. Cain could easily start rising, enouhg to leave most other candidates in the dust.


Well, don't count out the FairFax Four. Three of them are not well-known yet.

The Factional Five are all fun to watch, and they make us feel good, but votes and polling support are two different things.


One thing to consider is that only one of the Fairfax Four has widespread name recognition at this point: Mitt Romney. Daniels/Pawlenty/Huntsman are virtually unknown. So there may be a significant share of the vote open to a Fairfax candidate, but just not Mitt Romney. Right now they may be glomming onto Huckabee, or whoever, just because they don't really know or like any of the names in the race that they can identify.


or are they largely evangelical, blue-collar conservatives

One of the things I have been wondering is what will become of the evangelical vote in this race without Huckabee. I suspect there are a certain percentage of evangelicals, blue collar or white collar, who would really prefer to vote for someone who is expressly "born again." Of the serious candidates, only Pawlenty fits that criteria. Romney and Huntsman are both Mormon, and Daniels is a mainline Protestant, and would be the first to ascend to the White House as a Republican since Bush 41. I'm not even sure there are any evangelical candidates in the peanut gallery. Newt and Santorum are Catholic. Bachmann qualifies, I think, but who knows if she'll even be in the race by December. No clue as to what Herman Cain's religion happens to be,


Anyone else getting tired of the term "serious candidate?"

I can't take any analysis seriously that includes Huntsman on a list of viable candiates.



Dave, only Bush 43 was what I would consider a "born again" Christian, but neither Bob Dole nor John McCain could be classified as "born again".


"Palin collapsed"


What a faulty premise!

(wishful/blind thinking on your part)

Can you imagine any and/or all of the Fairfax Four/Five in the same room or debate with Palin???!!!???


Is the Minnesota man of the Fairfax Four making good strides into South Carolina?

This state was the weak link for TPAW in the early states. However, with Haley saying good things about TPAW on almost a daily basis, and TPAW and Demint agreeing on the the "Balance Budget Amendment" carrot for the Debt ceiling negotiations......

...well..let's just say that the Boeing issue in South Carolina came at a beautiful time for TPAW.

...and..for those who say TPAW did not do a good job at the debate, your going to have to change your opinion. The lasting impression in the first debate among GOP South Carolineans was TPAW giving the middle finger to the FEDS.

Without Huck in the race it's going to be real interesting to see where TPAW stacks up in South Carolina now.

Read below:

“Tim Pawlenty did a great job stepping up,” Haley said. “I’d like to see every candidate step up [and say] what they would do about it.”



Yeah, I agree. I guess Daniels would be the first mainline Protestant GOP president since Bush 41, not GOP nominee. In fact, it appears that most GOP nominees have been non-evangelicals. Though I imagine there are a number of evangelicals who voted for Bush 43 twice, and Huckabee once, and aren't going to like having to vote for a non-evangelical this time around.


Dave G,

Name recognition is a factor and, yes, Newt, Palin, and Trump are all fairly well known. I suppose I could imagine that some of their support is just a function of that and not attributable to any widespread desire to have that sort of nominee (combative, abrasively conservative), but only some. They're the factional Five for a reason. There are tons of Republicans, as we've seen in polls, who either don't like them at all (in the case of Trump) or who don't want them to be the nominee. Any low information voter who doesn't like Mitt Romney or Mike Huckabee, but is inclined towards a typical Republican nominee, is probably going to be undecided right now. They won't glom on, even temporarily, to polarizing or fringe characters.



I'm sure they'll find a candidate or two to get excited about, but the wiser Evangelicals will realize that they have truly made a long-term impact when they get behind candidates who could otherwise be considered viable contenders. George W. Bush was not just one of the Evangelical candidates, but also the Establishment choice. Pure Evangelical candidates like Gary Bauer and Alan Keyes failed because they had a narrow appeal. Huckabee was also a Governor who had appeal to blue-collar, lower income voters. If Evangelicals want to have a strong impact, especially outside of Iowa, then they need to be careful who they rally behind.

Oh, and by the way, Herman Cain's religion is Baptist. Just so you know.


Just saw this on Politico:


Rollins told POLITICO Saturday morning that he'd gotten an email from Huckabee Friday night, that he assumed went to other advisers and friends as well.

The note was "sort of offering the excuse why he couldn't tell us and to tune in for the show where he will announce his plans," Rollins said in an email, calling it a "nice note" but saying it was "only adding to the confusion."


When the hosts tried to tease out which way he's headed in his own announcement by asking if he could see himself supporting any of them, Huckabee coyly replied, "Why would I support someone else if I were running?"


I think rudy wants to jump in for the sole reason to attack romney, so that will complicate the balances


I think Cain has a shot but, frankly, if I were the Factional Five I'd want Bachmann. It seems to me that she'd have the best chance of beating The Fairfax Five in a head-to-head matchup. She's a great fundraiser and it's not purely grassroots fundraising. Unlike Palin, Bachmann's a lawyer and has a serious big-money fundraising network (for a House member anyway). And she's in politics, and I seriously, seriously doubt Cain's non-political resume will hold up in a two-man race. I think Bachmann would beat Daniels and probably Romney like a drum in a two-man race, by sweeping up most of Huck's evangelical and blue-collar support, while consolidating most of the Factional support (she might even win some of Paul's supporters as she's seemed fairly skeptical of Libya of late).

I actually think Bachmann is a pretty good fit for the new Republican Party. Aggressive, populistic, conservative on economics and social issues but seemingly leery of foreign intervention (she was also really dodgy on the Iraq surge). I don’t see why Bachmann couldn’t, if she can raise 15-20 million (and she can) win Iowa, win South Carolina, and then consolidate the nomination by winning the South and a few of the blue states in the upper half of the country where a blue-state conservative (even a brazen one) plays better than a Southern conservative. The South plus the Plains States, plus Minnesota, plus California, plus Illinois, and you have yourself a nominee.



Bachmann is simply too extreme to ever be nominated. She has a nasty habit of saying dumb, factually incorrect, or brazenly absurd statements (the Census, Obama's India trip, take your pick). Beyond that, she is despised by the House Leadership and her Tea Party SOTU response was a disaster, and fodder for comedians for the rest of the week. Bachmann is a laughing stock on Capitol Hill and will be for the rest of the country.


Personally, I would rather see Huckabee in the race to help weed out the candidates that are general election poison.

However, my gut tells me that if Huckabee intends to fight this one from the sidelines, most of his support will be divided among the FairFax Four. And yes, even some support would go to Romney.


#6.....Right Wingnut......I have to agree with you.....Huntsman has a long way to go before we start considering him viable...


Huntsman is creepy. All the neighbors agree. He just gave some interview out in Utah, and they're all talking about how creepy his answers were. Not off to a good start that way.



Awhile back- probably a few years ago, maybe even before the '08 election- there was all kinds of chatter about how grassroots conservatives were stuck in a "feedback loop" or a "cocoon". Meaning that they all talked to each other and they told each other "X is surely so" and "Y is surely not so" and nothing that anyone outside of that loop or cocoon said could penetrate. And it was true, more or less.

I think there are now two cocoons. The "conservative cocoon" which is convinced that Palin or Bachmann or Gingrich or Cain would actually beat Obama. And then there's the "establishment cocoon" which is convinced that the conservative cocooners don't matter and that sanity will ultimately prevail. As it did in Delaware. Or in Nevada. Or in Colorado. Or in NY-23. Or, from the vantage point of the summer of '09, as it did in Florida. Or, from the vantage point of the summer of '09, as it did in Kentucky. Or, from the vantage point of the summer of '09, as it did in Pennsylvania. It is by no means the case that, because of some high-profile grassroots wins, the GOP establishment can't prevail. They did in NH and they did in Ohio and they did in Indiana and a half dozen other places. But when you look at how the competitive primaries shook out in '10, with some of the establishment candidates who survived hanging on by mere skin (Ayotte in NH), and you look at the historic percentage of Republicans who express support for a third-party, it is sheer folly to call anyone "too extreme to ever be nominated". A plurality of the Republican Party is fairly extreme.


1. Huckabee averages 16%. Matthew writes as if this block may swing the nomination, but this is not a large number.

2. We've seen enough polls with and without Huckabee to know that this 16% splits among a number of different candidates when he is removed.

3. I never agreed with Gingrich being in the Factional Five. He seems the epitome of Fairfax to me, and has a record marred by many positions that are Fairfax rather than Factional.


4. Most important, as others have said, all but Romney in the Fairfax group have low name ID, and primary polls at this time are mainly measuring name ID.


Matthew E. Miller,

I usually agree with you 99% of the time in everything you write.

But this time I disagree with you 100%.

I live in the 6th district..Michele is my congresswoman.

The first time she sharse the stage in a debate format with the other candidates.. her candidacy is over.

Bachmann is unable to go through a whole debate without stating something that she can not back up.

She is a walking gaffe machine here in Minnesota and could never win a state wide race because of this problem.

All of my sources are saying to me that Bachmann is not running because she truly has done nothing in Iowa except hire a travel agent and done some work with some radio stations. For all the camera time she gets on the air, her ground game has not been worked on as of yet in Iowa.

I have zero fear Of Bachmann in Iowa. She will not be able to pull off a "Buchanan" or a "Robertson" in Iowa if she were to run.

Bachmann does not have the goods under the bright lights. She doesn't even have the goods under the dim lights of a 6th district MN debate for congress.

So many "cringe" moments in a Bachmann debate...truly, it's like watching a Heart surgeon do his work with mittens on his hands wrapped with tin foil.


#20: Good points. Count me as extreme, but attuned to general election electability.


Matthew and Dave, in which camp would you place Chris Christie?

To me, he's Factional Five. The electable member of the bunch!



I'd peg Christie as a mirror image of Huckabee. Loved by both groups. But more Fairfax than Factional (the Castle endorsement, the Romney love, the pro-amnesty position, the silence on Obamacare and the Mosque). In a sustained campaign, Chris Christie would hold up fairly well, but by the end of it I think he'd find himself challenged by one of the Factional Five, while essentially knocking out the Fairfax Four.

Same with Ryan. He'd start out "beloved" by both groups and then would become "loved" by the Factionals before settling into "liked". Which is, frankly, exactly where a nominee needs to be. He needs to be credible to the grassroots from the beginning so he can act sane/electable for most of the campaign without drawing their complete ire.


Yes I think Christie runs the gamut. Has the ideas and policy chops to appeal to Fairfax voters, but is rhetorically satisfying to the Factional voters.



I just got a call from the guy I know in the TPAW camp...there is a rumor flying around on what Huck is going to say tonight...

...I just don't know if I should say it here..

This place will explode If I do....yet this is a place where we can dicuss this stuff..right.......????

I have a moral dilemma here...

This is just a rumor..but...I think it's serious..

Oh boy..don't know what to do...


Hey, I just got a robo-call from Tim Pawlenty!

That was fun.

(I didn't press 1 to have a member of his team contact me with more information, maybe I should have...maybe Smack might have called me?)

I like seeing this article on here . At least it is an acknowledgement of the other candidates besides the sharply creased crowd.

There was a candidate that had been considered a very strong evangelical who would easily garner that demographic if Huckabee were not in the race, but the Orwellian 'Two Minutes Hate' has taken a toll. It will take a campaign to see if that can be reversed (as it should)

Naturally I see my candidate not as outside the realm of electability as you guys do, but we will just have to just disagree about that for now.

I find that position particularly humorous since I know every single one of you voted to have her one septuagenarian's weak heartbeat away from being POTUS.

What you are really saying is the current, skewed, mis-sampled, unaudited, polls show she is unelectable.

This place is far too concerned with polling, but that makes sense since most of you place a higher emphasis on political expediency (just WIN baby!) rather than holding to firm ideological values...just like the establishment squishes in D.C. (no offense, you can call me a politically naive knuckle-dragging hillbilly if you want)

I haven't even had coffee yet, so this might not make sense...


Smack, you tease!

Man, I am so in favor of waterboarding right now!

Give it up!!!!!!



The art of drama you have mastered good sir! I have been hearing rumors as well, but I am not going to share them because I know for a fact that the people (in this case) circulating the rumors have no first-hand knowledge of Huck's intentions. I would say that they are very educated guesses though! So, what are you hearing! :)



You make this announcement seem like it's some kind of trouble... Could you give a hint?



What's the policy of stating a rumor here?

This is a true rumor that is floating around....what I mean by true is that it's seriously go around the camps.

Who knows if the rumor is accurate,,,but the rumor itself is real.

I don't want to get banned here at RACE42012.

Do I have the ok to state the rumor?

I'm nervous.


I don't know man, I signed in here about a week before you did.


Fake but accurate? Like Dan Rather?


Well, between Smack's rumor and Stephen's optimism, I guess Huckabee is jumping in.

What else could it be?


There's no way Hucky would hype his announcement this much unless he's running or trying to sell something



You have probably heard the same thing.

I don't want posters to be attacking each other over this rumor.

I don't believe the rumor but, it's flying all over the place in the TPAW camp.

Huckabee gave out an said "things will get even craizer"

....yep it will..if this rumor is true.

Will I get banned if I put it on here?

I'm not saying it's ture..I say it isn't.

I wish someone else would put it on here..

I'm nervous.


Told ya? 😉 I gotta feelin' that tonight is going to be a good GOOD night! 8)


Let's do it!

Huckabee e-mail to his inner circle:

Tomorrow night (Saturday) I will announce the next step in my plans for 2012 during my show on the Fox News Channel. I would like to be able to call you or email you personally and in advance of the announcement, but due to the fact that the decision was not finalized until today and that I committed to Fox that I will absolutely not release it prior to doing so on the channel, that became impractical.

A lot of information and speculation was already rampant in the press today, and it frankly isn't fair to you to tell you the details and then put you in the awkward position of saying you didn't know (which at that point wouldn't be true) or saying you did know, but couldn't reveal or discuss it.

It was this afternoon before I could even get word to all of my own children and even now, the executive producer of my show and the staff and crew of the show don't know and won't until I actually do the final preparation literally minutes before I share the decision live Saturday night.

I will look forward to speaking with you soon and once I fulfill my sworn obligation to Fox, I will be free to discuss things that I can't now due to promises to them and to some possible legal considerations of the announcement.

Many friends have said, "how can we help you in the decision?" My answer has consistently been, "Pray that I have clarity." I have it and will share it Saturday night during the show. Please be patient if I don't respond immediately to an email because I expect that once I pull the trigger Saturday night, things will get even crazier, as if that's possible.

My heartfelt thanks for your friendship, prayers, and support,

Mike Huckabee 😉


Here we come... HERE WE GO!!!!!!!!



Spill the beans, ol' faithful!

You KNOW you want this thread to explode!

Someone else will release the rumor, so you might as well be first!


40. Well played sir.



I wouldn't go that far.

It's going to be more explosive then good....if this rumor is true.

Will you give me the ok to say it Craig?

It's nothing bad personally about has to do with politics...period.

But it will change things in politics if true.


With all the powers vested in me by Race42012 I hereby pronounce you blameless for any trouble or explosions caused by releasing said 'rumor.' Mr. Smack.

(Of course I have no actual 'power' vested or otherwise)


Smack, is he endorsing Mitch Daniels?

Is he running on the Obama ticket?

Is he being selected by TPaw as his running mate in the PRIMARY?

Is Huckabee accepting a job in the Obama admin?

Is Huckabee going on Celebrity Apprentice?


I need the ok from Craig.

If I get banned from putting out a false rumor, I will need you all to signed a petition to get me back

This place will explode!!


Naw, Smacks rumor will remain as such, a rumor. The only people who really know anything is the Huck family, so a rumor passing around the camps will more than likely be false.

Then again, I could be wrong, but Smacks is probably playing everybody.




He's switching parties and challenging Obama in a primary?


See, now we're all just speculating.

You're making it worse!


Jon Huntsman from Obama,

No, on all four.

I need the ok from Craig.


Huckabee running third party?


here's my stab at this Smack Rumor.

If its explosive and political then Huck is going to announce he will run for President, but on a christian party platform and as a 3rd party candidate.

thats my guess, completely out of thin air and uninformed


Stephen Hall,

I'm not playing. This is a true rumor. It may be incorrect...but the rumor is hot and heavy.

I'm not playing.

Craig..I need the ok buddy.



Every indication is that tonight is a "yes/no and why" deal. I'm intrigued that there is more to it than that! Tell us :)


Craig...come on man!

I have a weak heart


Here is an idea for a new third party in politics...


Jon Huntsman for Obama,


Let me explain.

Mike Huckabee, in regards to the rumor, has had conversations with close ones stating that he wants to run for President but wants to go a different route.

Mike Huckabee wants to be the candidate that will bring the country together and that the two party system doesn't work anymore.

Mike Huckabee did not want to possibly tarnish his close friends and ally's to this different route by telling them before his announcement.

Mike wants to give his friends a way out after the announcemnt if they don't want to buy in.

Rollins was a manager for Perot and believes Perot could have won if he was the correct candidate...the correct man...

Rollins has told Mike he is the right man, but the route in the GOP party is not correct route for him.

This rumor is steaming among the camps. I have gotten 3 calls...the third one I said...yes I know... and hung up...

Mike will proabaly leave it open ended tonight... and see if his people will join in.

This is just a rumor...please no attacking each other.

I might get banned...but I hope you will all take it on good faith that I'm not trying to cause problems...

.. I mean sometimes I do...just to get things fired up here..

But this is not one of those times.

I hope you all forgive me..

I hope this rumor is false and you can all yell at me later!



I have heard that he is going to announce that he is in the race, but I have not heard anything about a third party run.....very interesting, and probably false, but interesting anyway


“Once I Pull the Trigger Saturday Night, Things Will Get Even Crazier, As If That’s Possible”

I believe the rumor is false....but this statment from Huck.. has me going to the bathroom every 10 minutes.


By doing that will he have to give up his Fox gig?

I mean since he won't be running in the primaries, his third party campaign could start over a year from now...


Wait, so hucks going rogue? You guys need to stop with the speculation and just watch tonight......


Huckabee Decries Third-Party Talk - Washington Whispers (

Nov 4, 2009 ... Likely 2012 presidential candidate Mike Huckabee says GOP should fight out its politics in primaries.

I hardly doubt huckabee would go 3rd, unless he's a TOTAL hypocrite.


Huck is addressing the Republian Leadership Conference in June! That would be quite awkward if the rumors are true


Well, all very interesting, but not causing me any new bathroom runs

If Huck takes a third party route, Obama is in without even campaigning much. He will sit by the TV and watch the GOP destroy itself. Presumably, FOX will be in Huck's corner as a third party promoter. What this will do to folks like Sean Hannity will be fascinating. Anyway, 4 more years of Obama without any worry about re election, and perhaps a GOP Congress will be a total disaster. I can understand why Huck prays a lot.......but for what ?



I'm currently curled up in a fetus postion in the corner of my home ffice sucking my thumb.

The first call I received this morning in regards to this rumor was from my good buddy in Iowa.. shook me to the core.


Because he believes it....and he doesn't believe in anything.

He is a retired lawyer and an ex assitant to a ex Chief of Staff of a Senator.

Does it mean t's true?.....hell no!

Does it mean I need to crack open a beer this morning?.......HELL YES!!


You are trying to tell me that Huck would take a chance on torpedoing the GOP and keeping Obama in office 4 more years, which is certainly what would happen?

I don't buy it.

If Huck does it, my opinion of him won't be fit to print...


Smack, thanks for the courage to share what you know. Well done sir! and if you are banned for this we will petition your readmittance.

I think it would fit with how he views himself.

and like you if it is true i will vomit only because he would siphon off enough of whoever is the GOP nominee to insure 4 more years of the Messiah



Agree,thanks Smack, we wanted to know :) Huck has to know that a third party run is a sure Obama re-election,I don't think he would do that.


Would the SoCons really follow Huck down that path?

I know Huck supporters are devote, but I never got the impression they were into personality worship.

I think they would leave Huck twisting in the wind rather than leave Obama in the White House...


71- unfortunately i can truly see motivation for Huck to do this. and he would KNOW what he was doing.

also for what its worth no rumor like this over at hucks army yet


You all are giving great reasons on why we shouldn't believe the rumors.....and we shouldn't.

But this rumor is occupying the minds of many right now.

I have always believed, and said many times, that Huck is not running.




I for one would not. But it is no matter, he is not going to. He has consistently said that third party is not the way to go


Looks like Huck is going to run.


Bachmann is 70% on Intrade!?!?!?


#75.....Yeah, of all the things I could imagine Huck doing, this isn't one of them...



It still appears on the surface like Huck will not opt to run. I know the negativitey of his aides yesterday has become that they don't know really what the hell is going on...there has been a small, but real, shift in that sentiment so far today


"Things to get crazier," can be a No decision and a possible endorsement?


As much as I don't like Huck, he is not going third party.

All evidence points to the fact that he is likely not going to run.

If he doesn't run, the bigger question is would he endorse a candidate, and if so, who?

From a ratings point of view, this is absolutely brilliant. However, it would be a conflict of interest for Fox to allow Huckabee to use Fox news as a platform for a run for the Presidency.

If Huckabee was smart, he would turn around and endorse Romney. That would put Huckabee on Romney's short list of VPs.




Why would Huck run third-party? He's polling 16% in the Republican primary. He'd be lucky to get half of those folks to stick with him through an independent run. Which would leave him needing to win, like, 70% of independents (assuming that no more than 10-15% of Democrats are hankering to vote for a pro-life Baptist preacher). Maybe he's announcing he's running on the bottom of, I dunno, Mike Bloomberg's ticket or something. That's insane but slightly less insane. The most likely announcements are still "I'm running for the Republican nomination" and "I'm not running for anything" followed by, at a distance, "I'm endorsing candidate X" followed by, at an even greater distance, "I'm running against Bill Nelson". Running by his lonesome on an independent line is vanishingly unlikely.


I'm thinking Huck announces this is the last episode of his show and that he will make a further announcement later in a different venue....maybe....wouldn't bet a dime on it, but maybe...


Since I have opened the flood gates and there is no turning back..

...lets take a look at this phrase in Huck's email to his close advisors.

"Please be patient if I don't respond immediately to an email because I expect that once I pull the trigger Saturday night, things will get even crazier, as if that's possible."

If the rumor is false..which I expect it to be....what other scenario would fit nicely into Huck's words in this email??

Huck expects his email to be flooded...huuuumm.

"Pulling the trigger"...that is not a phrase to use when stopping a run.




Everything everyone says (other than Huckabee himself) is rumor and speculation. So, I don't have a problem with you passing the rumor on.

I would be absolutely shocked if Huckabee runs third Party because he has so many times said that 3rd Party candidates normally help elect the person you least wanted. I can't see Huckabee doing that after writing a book titled, "Do the Right Thing".

I'm glad that God answered the prayers of Huckabee (and those of us that support him) for Huckabee to have the clarity he needed - no matter whether he's in or out.


T-Paw is an evangelical. McCain is a converted Baptist. Hermain Cain is a baptist. The mistake many people make, is in regarding the viewpoint of evangelicals...both ways. On the one hand, people assume that evangelicals aren't willing to vote for a mormon. While that is true for a very small percentage, largely they are looking for someone to connect with on values...and the issues that matter most. They want a level of trust to have been developed there. The other side of it, is in regarding the fact that they do look to see if someone is like minded in their religion. The reason being because evangelicals have felt threatened over public displays of faith...and how faith is being regarded by the government. So it is much easier for an evangelical to pull the lever for someone who also an evangelical...the issues are actually more important. They'll vote for a catholic over an evangelical if the evangelical hasn't been consistent on abortion..or gay marriage. This is one of the mistakes people make about mitt romney. They think the evangelical hostility towards him is because of his faith, but that is the most minimal of is over trust on the issues they care about most.

Let's look at an example. If you have 2 candidates, who have an identical faith, but one of them was formerly pro-choice, for gay rights and for gun would vote for the one who has always been on your side, because they are more consistent...and don't have a previous record of being hostile towards the issues you care about...correct? Well that is exactly the scenario we have with Mitt Romney...except that he just happens to be a mormon as well. The mormon thing doesn't excite evangelicals, but they wouldn't have a problem voting for him, if he were always pro-life, against gay marriage and gay rights, and pro-gun 100%. But many of his supporters throw around the biggot word, because they claim he is all the things we are looking for. He is not. Are we willing to accept someone that has changed their mind? Yes. But only if that change has come with a proven record of conviction...and fighting for that position. Sadly, the only way romney will "win over" evangelicals to hold another office(other than president), and govern as a hardcore social conservative, with rhetoric that backs that up. Obviously that means he couldn't really run for office in massachussetts again. So romney will never make evangelicals go gaga for him. He can only hope to win them in the general...but in the primary, he should be focused on other groups. That was his mistake last time. He tried to be the socon in the upper tier...and it left a void, because he was a "false" socon(or at least he appears that way) huckabee rode in pretty easily. Romney doesn't have much going for him. Personally, i think he can win the primary by the skin of his teeth...but he is toxic in a general election matchup. He has a low ceiling....and that's bad against a president who also has a low ceiling. There isn't much battle ground there. You have to get out the base...which is largely made up of evangelicals. Romney loses a general...i pretty much guarentee it. Unless people are so distraught with Obama...i just can't see Romney winning a general election.

Pawlenty on the other appealing to every wing of the party. He is a solid pro-lifer, social conservative...and he governed conservatively in a blue state. Put him side by side with Romney...and it's obvious who the better choice for the party is. Romney is toxic...he will divide the party. Pawlenty will unite it. I used to think Daniels could too...but now i'm sure that he would fracture the evangelicals as well. He wants a pro-choicer(rice) to be his vp. He wants a truce on social issues. He obviously doesn't understand that he can't win without the socons...Mitt understands that...and I think that he thinks they will come home to him for the general election. In a sense, it is kind of like the Gary Johnson strategy, except easier to get them to vote for you in the general.


If the Huck drops out and throws his weight behind Governor Palin, the nomination is Governor Palin's if she wants it. She may decide that she can be more influential on her platform outside of the Presidency and decide to opt out of the Presidency to effect more change.




If you read Huck's statement, it appears that the "sworn obligation to Fox" to which he refers in the fourth paragraph is that which he identifies in the first paragraph, his promise to Fox that he would reveal his plans on the network tonight and not before. This does not mean that he is leaving Fox. Everything must be read in context.

The fact that his statement tonight does have some "legal considerations" (fourth paragraph) does imply that it's not simply a "No, I'm not going to run," sort of statement. He either is going to run (not likely) or he is endorsing another candidate or making some sort of statement that would involve advocacy that could create problems for Fox were it to be done incorrectly.

We shall see tonight what comes of this.

What time does Huckabee air again? Is it live?



"If the rumor is false..which I expect it to be….what other scenario would fit nicely into Huck’s words in this email??

Huck expects his email to be flooded…huuuumm.

“Pulling the trigger”…that is not a phrase to use when stopping a run."

You're right. It sounds like something more than the conventional, "no, I'm not running". An early endorsement could explain it- that would flood his email box. Alternatively, he could be announcing he's taking Beck's time-slot. If I had to give percentages, I'd say there's a 40% chance he announces he's running, a 20% chance he announces he's not running and that's it, a 15% chance he announces an endorsement, and a 15% chance he announces he's taking over Beck's slot. With a 10% chance skewing towards crazy, but not quite insane scenarios like "I'm running for Bill Nelson's Senate seat".




Well, if anyone has been paying attention, there is great dissatisfaction with both parties.

Hence the Tea Party uprising.

Sadly, Bush ruined the Republican brand of fiscal responsibility.

Now we have a historic election taking back the House in 2010, and these guys cave and can't even cut 30 Billion from the budget.

It has people like me pissed off, and the establishmenet squishes are just going along like politics as usual.

So I could easily see a third party run.

Many have said if the republicans can't get back to their conservative roots they will go the way of the Whigs...and on here we have people talking about conservatives as those who need to be appeased like we're the crazy aunt in the basement or something.

I just don't see Huckabee as the leader of this grassroots movement, but I guess he could claim the mantle.


# Dave Gaultier Says:

What time does Huckabee air again? Is it live?


Only the announcement is live, and you can bet it will be at the end of the show.


#87 - As an EV Christian, the other issue that is very important to me is where a candidate stands wrt to our relationship with Israel (see Genesis 12:3).

#90 - Huckabee's show is on 8-9 PM ET.




The Smackdown version... 😉

I Got a Feeling for Smacks, Chipmunks and the Chipettes he Squeakquel

And do it, and do it, do it do it!! LET'S DO IT! Kavon called it!

HUCKABEE/RUBIO or HUCK/HUNTS .........................or wait for it..........................Huck/Romney 2012 😉


Huckabee Decries Third-Party Talk - Washington Whispers (

Nov 4, 2009 ... Likely 2012



Announcing a Senate run would be "pulling a trigger"....

...would it be an "email filling" type of announcement?...possibly..but not quite.

And is it a "things will get even crazier" type of moment?

Endorsment?....possibly yes. Would that be a "crazier moment"?.....hhhuuum maybe.

Would it be a "email filling moment"...yes.

So maybe an endorsement...but the secrecy to his own staff...well...I don't know.


Teledude: If Huckabee where to run third party, it would be the end of him politically as well as a TV personality. And frankly, if he was to run, he has a much better chance running as a republican than as a third party. As a Third party he is unlikely to take even one state and will be blamed for years for giving Obama a 2nd term.


maybe his band will play that f'ing way he can go 3rd party. Now i love the idea of getting a ticket formed and running in the primary if you want a crazy rumor. Trump seemed to have collapsed, so that doesn't make sense, pairing with him. Yet, huck/rudy, huck/huntsman flip it if you want or the real crazy as fox ticket, romney/huck all fit the bill. The problems is you don't announce such a pairing now rather around new year's.


I have been a Huck supporter since the very early days in 2007 and if he announces some third party run I will no longer be a Huck supporter. One thing I know is that he is always tagged as "the preacher" or whatever, but he is incredibly, incredibly smart. He has to know better than that.

As far as what his announcement will be, who knows for sure. He was shorted like crazy yesterday on Intrade. Let's just say I went long, on just the chance :)


Craig for Huck/Beat Obama! Says:

HUCKABEE/RUBIO or HUCK/HUNTS …………………….or wait for it……………………..Huck/Romney 2012


If Huckabee announces he is not running and Endorses Romney, then he would have a lock on the VP Slot and 2020.

Romney/Huckabee :)

BlueGrass State of Mind

Huckabee is not running and is, instead, moving to CNN to for a 9pm show to take on Madow on MSNBC.


One thing I'd say: Huckabee was quite annoyed in '08 that prominent evangelicals didn't get behind his candidacy early, hedging their bets for awhile. I don't think it's beyond the realm of possibility that Huckabee really likes an evangelical friendly candidate who's currently struggling to get traction (Pawlenty, Bachmann, Cain) and he has decided to boost them into the top-tier with an early, high-profile endorsement. In fact, if Huckabee is fairly comfortable in his job, this seems like just the sort of thing Huckabee would do. It'd make him a de-facto king-maker and ensure that a candidate who puts his issues at or near the top, priority-wise, was in the final mix (as wouldn't be the case if we ended up with, say, a Daniels, Romney, Huntsman battle-royale).





LOL! Now that would be a stunner, to hear and see :) That is likely not inbox flooding news though!


RT @foxnewssunday: Former Gov. Mike Huckabee joins Chris on Sunday, fresh off his announcement of his Presidential plans. Tune in


Matthew 104,

It would be especially interesting if Huck endorsed Pawlenty, given that Pawlenty is someone we all agree could actually be viable in the long run. The race would then be one between the Bush Machine backing Daniels, Hucks Army backing Pawlenty, and Romney's bank account backing Romney.


102.thunder Says:

May 14th, 2011 at 12:21 pm

Craig for Huck/Beat Obama! Says:

HUCKABEE/RUBIO or HUCK/HUNTS …………………….or wait for it……………………..Huck/Romney 2012


If Huckabee announces he is not running and Endorses Romney, then he would have a lock on the VP Slot and 2020.

Romney/Huckabee 😉

WORKS FOR ME the other way...we'll see :)

I Got A Feeling (Christian Remix!)


Again, folks... 😉

13.Craig for Huck/Beat Obama! Says:

May 14th, 2011 at 10:26 am


When the hosts tried to tease out which way he’s headed in his own announcement by asking if he could see himself supporting any of them,

Huckabee coyly replied, “Why would I support someone else if I were running?”


i might be the only one but i like piers morgan, so no huck on that time slot. Maybe he quits and becomes sec of commerce..blah blah blah, its his patriot duty to help obama turn things around rather than challenge him. Ok that won't happen .


Is this a clue? Huckabee is scheduled to give what appears to be a paid speech on Tuesday.


Wow, everyone here at Race wants Huck to endorse their candidate.

Hmmm... guess Huck is not hated here as much as I thought.



Who would Huck endorse tonight?

Of course I would think of TPAW...but..there is one big problem with that scenario..

Why would he have dinner with Hucksman a couple of days ago..if he had a sliver of an idea he was going to endorse TPAW???

We just had a Hucksman Aid attack Daniels for his "truce": statement...didn't we?...I believe we did.

A Huck endorsemnt tonight goes to Huntsman. An act that Huck would claim to unite the party. An act that Huck would need to clear with Fox News.

Huntsman has the he gets the Evangelical stroke from Huck.

Huck gets to claim he is not against Mormons.

Smack's guess:

Huck endorses Huntsman.

But the's flying all over the place...just got another call.


I suppose he could endorse Santorum too. I sometimes forget that Santorum exists. But while I think Huck could get away with endorsing a Catholic- while he couldn't get away with endorsing a Mormon- it doesn't really seem like a natural move to me. Santorum is going nowhere. It's not even that he's struggling to gain traction like Pawlenty. If Huck endorsed Cain, I could see Cain taking over the Factional Five. Ditto Bachmann. If Huck endorsed Pawlenty I could see Pawlenty climbing to a strong second nationally, backed by evangelical support and a portion of the establishment. If Huckabee endorsed Santorum I don't think anything much would happen.


"As far as what his announcement will be, who knows for sure. He was shorted like crazy yesterday on Intrade. Let’s just say I went long, on just the chance."

Same here.


Perhaps they should endorse Huck TO BEAT OBAMA!



Pawlenty would win the nomination. Evangelicals would coalesce around him...and he is appealing to every wing of the party.

I'd love that scenario, but i doubt it.


Huck endorses Palin tonite.

It means the race42012 is over.

Palin v. Obama '12

Sit back and enjoy the show.


Huckabee takes meredith vieira spot on the today show. CALLING IT!!



Reuters, AP:

"Sources close to Mike Huckabee have indicated that Mike Huckabee will be endorsing Mitt Romney for the GOP nomination in 2012."

Nah, just kidding!!



Interesting article.

Elite opinion = informed opinion = competent opinion.

Anything and everything else is a beauty contest. And that's what we had last time, and wound up with a beauty contestant winner with neither substantive experience nor competence.

How's that working out for us all? Let's not repeat it. Let's have some competence.


BREAKING!: Huckabee Eyeing Meredith Vieira spot on 'Today,' Report Says -


well, any potential 2012 gop'ers in nyc today?, ie making a guest appearance on the huck show for the endorsement?


Keep your eye on the prize..

"My Race My Pace"

Huck/Rubio '12 ..America wins/Everyone wins :)


"once I pull the trigger Saturday night, things will get even crazier, as if that's possible" could mean either in or out. If he's in he'll be getting invitations to talk on other stations or at unpaid speaking events. (I've already received a request from the Rockford Tea Party to try to get Huckabee to speak at one of their events if he announces)

If he's out he'll be getting lots of request from other candidates and their supporters to endorse.


Huckabee poised to take vacant seat on The Today Show ...

May 14, 2011




I really don't think Huck could get away with endorsing a Mormon. A candidate like Huck is heavily dependent on his status as a leader of a particular movement. Any maneuver he makes needs to take into account the reaction of that movement. Or he risks losing his status. I don't think Huck could sell Huntsman to evangelicals- I think he's, frankly, less sellable than Romney. And I don't think he'd try to this early, before Huntsman had even said word one on his plans on social issues. He'd want Huntsman to make some firm and public commitments first. Otherwise Huntsman has the endorsement, plays nice for a few weeks, and precedes never to mention social issues again. It'd be a silly move on Huck's part.


Mike Huckabee endorses Jon Huntsman...

That's my call.

And if my call is right...or if the rumor is correct...

..then I'm turning off my phone..taking the 12 pack of Corona out of the garage and will be crying the blues the rest of the night.

It's not going to be pretty here just isn't.


I am crying ,i am so nervous....!! :(


1. No way can Huck announce he's running ON HIS OWN TV SHOW! (That violates so many things, not worth explaining.)

2. Huck IS announcing something much more than he's not running.

3. Therefore, Huck IS endorsing someone.

4. Huck still absolutely hates Mitt (a prime reason he sabptaged Mitt and the GOP in '08)

5. Huck's endorsement will have the most dramatic impact -- for his own place in history as well as that of the country -- for a fellow evangelical, the Anti-Obama, namely, Sarah Heath Palin.

I said it so it must be so

Okay, the announcement will be: "I am staying out unless Romney wins the nomination, then I'm running 3rd party."

So, on another note; with no democratic primary, what do the independents and disenfranchised dems that dislike Obama do? Do they swing over and vote in the republican primary they would be content with in the general? People seem to be forgetting the large middle of the country (and I don't mean geographically).


spelling correction to #4 "sabotaged"



If Huck endorses Huntsman, that will not hurt TPaw IMO


127 & 130

cease and desist order with my name, thank you

I said it so it must be so

" in the republican primary for the candidate they..."


Jack Says:

May 14th, 2011 at 12:32 pm

"Huck endorses Palin tonite.

It means the race42012 is over."


Try this one on for size. Huck announces his run for the nomination (or exploratory committee on Fox News Sunday, imo) and 100% of the comments at C4Palin about Huck NEVER EVER EVER running turned out to be false. 😉


Huck endorsing anyone but Palin will simply be a ho hum.

Huck4Palin '12!


Another thing to consider: Huck doesn't want another Christian Leader. He's the Christian leader. So if he endorses it'll probably be someone evangelicals are well-disposed to but who is no threat to take Huck's mantle.


My prediction:

Huckabee will announce that he's going to announce that he's going to announce.


# TEX Says:

May 14th, 2011 at 12:14 pm



# TEX Says:

May 14th, 2011 at 12:32 pm

Huckabee takes meredith vieira spot on the today show. CALLING IT!!


That's not me.

Who is the joker using my name?



i'm with Matt on this one. Huck wont endorse Huntsman. For the reasons Matthew said and also for the fact that such an endorsement would put all the Mormon money into Romney's coffers. we know Mormons can bring alot of money if they want to do move an election (see Prop 8 in CA as proof). Right now Huntsman splits that money but if Huck endorsed JH they would see it as another hit against Romney (who Mormons like more than Huntsman) and they would come out in masses to protect Romney.

The only one i really seeing Huck endorse now would be your guy TPAW. Then you could crack teh 12 pack but for a whole other reason :)

I think 3rd party has something to do with it.


In slightly over 7 hours we will know.



As ringleader of the Race42012 carnival, let me lay out our commenting policy:

1. No profanity (d*mn and h*ll are OK).

2. No graphic descriptions of sexual acts will be tolerated

3. The family (spouses and children) of candidates are completely off limits.

4. A candidate's fitness as a parent is completely off limits.

5. Religious attacks are off limits.

6. No personal attacks on fellow commenters or posters.

7. No spamming or trolling will be tolerated. I define these as off topic comments that are meant to incite or inflame or promote a personal web site, product, etc...

I usually give people three strikes before they are banned. Although I have almost no tolerance for #3 & #4, so someone can be banned for these even after the first infraction (it depends on my mood).

No matter what you may hear, the only times people have been banned from this site has been when they have repeatedly violated the comment policy I have outlined above.


Matthew E Miller,

But I thinK Huck is working on a different "status".

This will lengthen the brand name of Mike Huckabee. If it is an endorsemnt,it will be either TPAW or Huntsman. Huckabee said nice things about Daniels it won't be him.

In other words..this is about shock -n- awe...if it is an endorsement. Huck hasn't said peep about TPAW or Jon lately.

I did notice on Thursday night how happy TPAW was on the Greta show as he was being interviewed by Martha on Fox News. He said twice how he loved his position right now in the can't be,can it?

Huck is endorsing Huntsman tonight..

..but if he endorses TPAW....



..Huck endorses Huntman.




The ones I feel sorry for are Newt, Palin, and T-Paw because for a very brief moment last night, they actually thought Huck might step aside and give them each a golden ticket.

But no.

That's not quite how the "my race, my pace" concept works.


Another thing to consider: Huck doesn’t want another Christian Leader. He’s the Christian leader.

False. Huckabee never claimed to be "the Christian leader." His ad said, "Christian leader" not "the Christian leader" - big difference! And for the record The Leader of the Christian movement is Jesus Christ.


Matthew E. Miller Says:

May 14th, 2011 at 12:42 pm

"Another thing to consider: Huck doesn’t want another Christian Leader. He’s the Christian leader."

Wrong, pal.

A Christian leader. But nice try to divide the party and make it more difficult to defeat Obama.

Remember the goal.



Thank you for not banning me. I would not have spilled this rumor If I had only gotten 1 call this morning...but I have received 5 calls on this rumor by 3 different people.

I wished somebody else would have spilled it before me however...but Ol'Smackaroo can't always pick the steps he takes in life....I think I made the right decision.


#144---hope you enforce that fairly to all commenters, even people you like.



Were any of these rumors from non Huckabee supporters?

My guess is ALL of them were. 😉


The extent to which people go to distort words to make it appear that Huckabee isn't running is amusing. I don't know if he's in or out, but speculation that he might endorse this person or that person or run for this Senate seat is ridiculous! We'll all just have to wait and see.


if Huck is going 3rd party, then George Soros is behind it.



There is nothing to ban you for. Anything goes except for the things I outline in 1-7 (I added one had I forgotten to list earlier).


Viking #150,

The problem is that I cannot read every comment on the site, as I have a full-time job and a family. On top of that, I may be going back to school part time in September. I try my best.



"A Christian leader. But nice try to divide the party and make it more difficult to defeat Obama.

Remember the goal."

You bolded that part, not me. I meant nothing by it. But when you're the leader of a movement, and Huckabee is indisputably the political of the evangelical wing of the Republican Party, you don't want to create rivals for the crown. You want to create vassals. He wouldn't endorse Palin because, toxic though she is, she could conceivably steal his crown. He'll want someone who'll use the evangelical support Huck hands over, but has no intention/interest in co-opting the evangelical movement the way, say, Bush did.




Maybe could be posted somewhere on the front page for all to see daily.

Many sites I post at do just that. It works.



Rombots have been accusing Huck of trying to be THE Christian leader for years.

I correct them each time about the 10 1/2 year governor who was last a pastor decades ago.


BTW... I will hack off my left arm with a butter knife tonight if Huck announces he's exploring a 3rd party run. That is how certain I am that this is BS. I am surprised that T-Paw's folks may be spreading this rumor. Seems to me maybe they were hoping for Huck's endorsement and didn't get it.


Craig, huckabee does fancy himself a christian leader big deal not a deal breaker for me. Wish he would emphasize more though that he is an American leader. Best to lead the whole than just a part. no?


No personal attacks on fellow commenters or posters.

I wonder how the word "attack" is defined, because I do enjoy attacking Craig now and then. 😉


There is no way Huckabee is going to explore a 3rd Party run. Why would he endorse Mike Haridopolos in the FL Senate GOP primary if he was going to abandon the GOP?

I'll dye my hair purple and call myself Sally if Huckabee announces he's running 3rd party. It's so absurd it barely is worth commenting on.


All I can say is Huckabee is not only liberal preacher from Arkansas,

he's a Drama Queen also.

What he's doing is cheesy and ridiculous.

Whatever his decision is,remember:

He likes Obama more than any potential candidate,I can't see him run

against Obama.

And if he could it would be a complete disaster.

He would never attack Obama in a way necessary to win.


A third party run would be a flip flop of incredible proportions.

Maybe he's going to announce some new political organization--THE MOST POWERFUL THE WORLD HAS EVER KNOWN!

Hold on, we're talking about Huck, not Glenn Beck.

Maybe Glenn Beck as agreed to endorse Huck? That would be cause for all kinds of chaos.


Or perhaps Huck and Beck are going to have a prime-time debate.



Yes, they all came from non Huckabee supporters, however,

I did ask the question where did the rumor start and why do you(my buddy) believe the rumor to be true.

According to my buddy, the rumor started in Florida and it flows from the family. The word is that (according to the rumor) a family member told an old Huck political hand, that Mike wants to run but is in strong belief that he can't win the race in the current GOP.

This old Huck poltical Aide (according to the rumor) suggest to the family member that there is a 3rd party route...and here is the money shot....the family member (according to the rumor) told the old hand, "yes, it has been discussed and we are almost there".

How would Huck explain this?...I don't know.

How would Huck win?.....well this where my buddy starts believing in this rumor. Huck would win by going the protectionist-popular route...kind of like a Perot/Buchanan. My buddy believes Huck has had conversations with just about everybody on the issue of curing the debt by cuts in spending and taxes. (according to the rumor) Huck doesn't believe that the GOP or the DEMS can have a truthful conversation with the American people with this issue. Huck will offer himself up tonight as the possible candidate that will do both...cut spending and raise a way that will unite the country.

So that is a more detailed explanation of the rumor, and why some people believe it. The rumor explains in a good way on why Huck has not told any of his people...but fails in other ways IMO.

My official guess is that Huck endorses Huntsman..we will see.


Huckabee endorses Romney who then in turn turns around and says Huck will his VP running mate if he wins the nomination. And who would have brokered the deal. The Bush family.

Why? To stop Sarah Palin and prepare the way for Jeb in 2016 because they know the combination of Mitt and Huck cannot beat Obama.


Kavon #159,


I would not be part of that plot of course...but interesting.

In the end though it wouldn't do the TPAW camp any good.

But interesting thought.


Why would Huckabee endorse someone at this early stage? Why would he endorse Huntsman until he saw that Huntsman could hold his own? Seems like he is setting himself up for embarrassment. And why would he like Huntsman a lot more than TPaw?


#167 that has to be the most delusional idea yet. you win the award for most creative.


Wait a minute. We've been wondering why, for two weeks, Huntsman has been trading so high at Intrade. It may be an insider who knew about this. Wow.


BTW, Huckabee to announce contract at Intrade is back up to 38%. Right in line with Matthew's estimate of 40%.



Good point. Endorsing now doesn't do Huckabee any good. If he waits until before Ames or before the Iowa Caucuses and he endorses whomever, then that's front-page news right before Iowa. Then, if that candidate does well, Huckabee becomes kingmaker, one of the powers behind the throne. That'll definitely make Huckabee very happy.


171. Insider trading! Here come the Feds. Load everyone up in the paddy wagon who's been trading based on inside information. Btw, who has jurisdiction there?


174. It's off shore. (I just sent my check's not easy to fund an account)


This rumor makes zero sense. Why would Gov. Huckabee believe that he wouldn't be able to win in the current GOP environment when he is the heavy favorite to win two early states (Iowa and South Carolina), can compete with anyone in Florida, and would win every Southern and core Republican state in a war of attrition against whatever establishment candidate is left after FL? There are just more delegates for Huck than there would be for say, a Jon Huntsman, if he takes it to May.


175. Offshore? Then Interpol is involved. You can run, but you cannot hide. This form of corruption will be stamped out.


176. Money?

He's said he wouldn't jump in to an empty pool.

I think his meetings with Barbour and Trump and Huntsman were very instructive on how much money he could (or couldn't) raise.


#176: But Huck may know he can't raise the money and would face a fierce barrage from the economic right. I think he would have a harder time at the nomination than people think.



Maybe my first Corona has hit me harder then usual...but lets look at the what we know.

It's something different the just a "I'M IN...I'M OUT" sort of announcment....please read Huck's email to supporters.

By the process of elimination the crack conspiracy team here at RACE42012 have wittled it down to an endorsement.

If Huck is/was/could be/possibly/silver of a endorse TPAW...why the dinner with Huntsman a couple of days ago?

Was that just a greet and meet dinner? I'm saying it wasn't. Huck just received clarity on what he should do....according to Huck. What just got into Huck's head that was the difference maker?

What just happened?

Huck's dinner with Jon Huntsman.

Huck sees himself...or wants other people to see him as the uniter.

Especially after the "08" cycle.

Huck talked with Jon...saw that he won't have any financial issues in the campaign...and WAAAALLAAAAA!


Smacks prediciton:

Huck endorses Jon Huntsman..

Smack curls up into fetus position.



Have you ever watched the TV series Prison Break? As the series moves former bitter enemies eventually becomes allies because their status and condition has changed dramatically.

Romney knows what his weakness is with evangelical voters. He is NOT a stupid man. He knows they are his stumbling block. He knows he stands a great chance to win the nomination if he could somehow someway get these EV on board with him and prevent them from eventually going to Sarah Palin.

He has tried the stalking-horse route; it has not worked. He is left with only alternative: bring on board the man who commands a huge following with these voters, his former foe Mike Huckabee.

But what's in it for Huck? He gets to keep his job and his 7 figure salary until next year and Janet doesn't have to worry how the new house in Florida is going to be paid off. And Huck can do this because Romney doesn't go public he is going to pick Huck but the deal has been brokered by the Bush family.

Mitt gains more credibility and moves up in the polls and even more importantly attracts huge donors again because he is now seen as very viable, even against Palin. And the GOP establishment gets four-square behind Mitt as well squeezing out the other moderates in the race. EV more to Mitt en masse although many will still remain with Palin. But the move to Mitt will be enough for Mitt to win red states with high EV populations when you add together his natural support from moderates.

This is the plan. Will it work? Who knows?



It seems that the money thing is the big issue for Huckabee. He's frankly just not a good fundraiser, and it costs a lot of money to run. Even after Huckabee won Iowa last time, his fundraising didn't pick up enough to let him become competitve nationally. Plus, with Huckabee's new financial obligation (his FL home), he might not feel monetarily comfortable enough to risk it all in a run for President.


I wouldn't mind a Huck endorsement of Huntsman, though it doesn't make sense to me. Huntsman is still an unknown quantity. If the first thing Republican primary voters hear about Jon Huntsman is that Mike Huckabee likes him...well, that's better than hearing he was Obama's ambassador to China. He might be able to make something out of that. I don't think Huntsman has much of a chance and I only include him in the Fairfax Four because the group is an elite-driven group and Jon Huntsman is well-liked by the elites. Frankly though, I think Michele Bachmann and Herman Cain have a better chance of being the nominee. Still, if Huntsman could overcome a few of his liabilities early, he might make a pretty good nominee.


Next crazy idea, Huckabee announces a 3rd party run w/ Giuliani as running mate and an endorsement by Palin.

Giuliani and Palin go along with the idea because the GOP primary process has shut them out. Huckabee's ego wants to circumvent the entire process.

The idea is to outpoll the GOP nominee and force him to drop out before November.


You gotta hand it to Huck. He's playing everyone very well in these 24 hours.



Why not a GOP run under the same scenario?


Metro #179,

I know that you and I disagree on this point, but I believes that the only faction within the GOP that is organized enough and powerful enough to exercise veto power over a potential nominee are social conservatives. Rudy was effectively vetoed by the social conservative wing of the GOP, where John McCain was able to win the nomination despite numerous heresies against almost every other faction of the Party.


Matthew E. Miller,

Your good point on Huntsman being still an unknown quantity, is clearly the weakest point in my prediction. Why would Huck stick his neck that far out....huuumm

Re-thinking my prediction.


I think Huck will announce an end to his show, without announcing the official bid, putting that off more towards his original timeline. He will then announce an exploratory on Fox News Sunday as a unpaid guest. Then later on he will announce the official bid at a big rally in the middle of the week to maximize attention.

I also think his excelerated timeline is due to the fact he got wind that Daniels is in and consolidating major GOP support, and waiting until August while Daniels builds a juggernaut would be unrealistic. I think Huck thought he could afford to swoop in late against Romney, but can't against Daniels.


If Huck announces he's out... does Palin see a path to the nomination for herself?

(regardless of whether we think she can win...)

Will she get in now?

Tough question.

What about Rudy?



Agreed. I don't understand the criticism about him drawing this out, isn't the name of the game in politics to create buzz about yourself? No matter what he does tonight, he has succeded on that front


Trump is announcing an announcement tomorrow on his last Celebrity Apprentice episode...

Will he run?

I doubt it.

Will Bachmann get in?



Palin will play it close to the vest. If she sees her poll numbers jump after a Huckabee withdrawl, then yeah, she might jump into the race, thinking that there is an opening in the right and amongst the so-cons. If her numbers stay where they are, then she'll probably stay out and try playing kingmaker herself.


Let me rephrase that: I wouldn't mind, intellectually, a Huckabee endorsement of Huntsman. Personally I'd be quite upset as Huntsman has been running a proxy campaign from abroad, has done no actual campaigning, no actual courting, and has what can only be characterized as a mixed public record on social issues. And yet he's going to get the endorsement of the country's most prominent evangelical politician, before he's even out of the gate? That's madness. I'd have to assume Huckabee had some personal dislike of Pawlenty to administer such a blow at this stage.


Metro #184,

I have always thought that if I were Mike Huckabee, I would have approached Rudy long ago and offered him whatever position he wanted in exchange for his fundraising/campaign team. So Rudy gets the Veep spot and Huckabee gets a national campaign and fundraising apparatus. But crazy stuff like this only happens in the movies, not in real life.



Why should Huck worry about Daniels, the man who argued that social issues should be put on the backburner?

I think an argument can be made they are playing to different constituencies.

Huck's path to the nomination doesn't head through Daniels but through either Romney or Palin. He must neutralize at least one to have any shot. Huck cannot win if Romney and Palin are both in the race.

Thus my VP scenario with Romney.

There is an old saying when you are on top you never look down, you look up or to your side.


#187: McCain won because Iraq was the #1 issue and Mitt and Rudy split the economic vote.

The Club for Growth has successfully primaried a ton of GOP incumbents, a remarkable feat. The EconCon clout also has extra power because most SoCons are also EconCons, and thus "3 legged" Cons will join the fight, i.e., Rush Limbaugh, NRO, etc.


#188: Didn't I make that point first? :)


176.Kavon W. Nikrad Says:

May 14th, 2011 at 1:29 pm

"This rumor makes zero sense. Why would Gov. Huckabee believe that he wouldn’t be able to win in the current GOP environment when he is the heavy favorite to win two early states (Iowa and South Carolina), can compete with anyone in Florida, and would win every Southern and core Republican state in a war of attrition against whatever establishment candidate is left after FL? There are just more delegates for Huck than there would be for say, a Jon Huntsman, if he takes it to May."


:) Many friends have said, "how can we help you in the decision?" My answer has consistently been, "Pray that I have clarity." I have it and will share it Saturday night during the show. Please be patient if I don't respond immediately to an email because I expect that once I pull the trigger Saturday night, things will get even crazier, as if that's possible.

My heartfelt thanks for your friendship, prayers, and support,

Mike Huckabee :)


What would make more sense is if Huck endorsed Mitch Daniels and Daniels promised Huck he would be his VP running mate.


BREAKING: Huck to announce that he's Luke Skywalker's father.


Romney has always been THE serious contender.


189.Max Twain Says:

May 14th, 2011 at 1:44 pm

I think Huck will announce an end to his show, without announcing the official bid, putting that off more towards his original timeline. He will then announce an exploratory on Fox News Sunday as a unpaid guest. Then later on he will announce the official bid at a big rally in the middle of the week to maximize attention.

I also think his excelerated timeline is due to the fact he got wind that Daniels is in and consolidating major GOP support, and waiting until August while Daniels builds a juggernaut would be unrealistic. I think Huck thought he could afford to swoop in late against Romney, but can’t against Daniels.

Welcome to reality, Max. Glad to have you back :)


Metro #197,

I would counter that McCain won because the anti-Romney forces in NH, led by Joseph McQuaid and the New Hampshire Union Leader, were able to take Mitt down by attacking him over a multitude of issues (abortion, confiscatory taxation of NH residents in MA, etc...) Iraq and waffling on the surge was just one thing among many.

Once Mitt lost both Iowa AND New Hampshire, it was all over.


People, go see movies, go to a baseball game, enjoy time outside with your family. Huckabee is running for president. He does not like Mitt Romney, and for everyone to think he isn't running when he is polling in a horserace with Romney is absurd.


All the bloggers on this site are doing is giving Craig for Huck a confidence overload.


Does Romney have anything scheduled tonight?



What is Huck's end game against a candidate who has vowed to pursue "a last man standing strategy" and take the nomination to the convention if he needs to?

How is Huck supposed to compete financially with a man worth $250m under that scenario?


I'm trying to be fair here.



Aron's got some nice new numbers laid out from PPP that would make a NICE FPP here considering all the fun about to happen at 6pm 😉


If all the Bush bigshots and major players of the past year in the GOP are endorsing Daniels, doesn't that mean this race is over?


Oh, why would a candidate polling in the upper teens decide to endorse a man polling at 4%?



When is your candidate, Palin getting in?

Any pressure.. There's lots of work to do in Iowa, South Carolina, and Florida where she's polling way way waaaaaaaaaaay behind Huck and Romney.

Don't ya think? 😉



LOL! That's funny. If there is a serious contender this cycle, it is Pawlenty. Romney is still suffering from the fatigue of 2008. He alienated a lot of people in the GOP. Even though he is VERY much in a position to win the nomination...his path to the nomination, requires a fractured field. If huck stays out...then someone else who is more acceptable to the general electorate, will be picked as the anti-Romney candidate.

I think Romney is a serious guy...but "THE" serious



Not if they haven't told that to Mitt Romney.

Mitt Romney is still a major player despite the albatross of Romneycare.

Does Cheri Daniels really want to get Palinized?


A Mitt/Mike team would strangle every other campaign in the crib.




No, it means it's simply between Daniels, Romney, and Huck.

My money is on Huck as the other two split the moderates in two.

I just need Daniels to run. Which is 50/50 at best, imho.

Otherwise back to plan B: Huck versus Romney to the death 😉



Exactly. Why then don't more people see it as conceivable.

How conceivable was Reagan-Bush 41 before it got done? Remember Bush 41 really tore into Reagan over "voodoo economics"?



That could be decided (in reverse, imo) at Tampa.


Need some new PPP polls up soon.....


Here's one that's not likely to happen. What if huck endorses Ron Paul? That would upset the balance of the universe. Think about it though. All of huck's push button issues since 08 ended...are Ron Paul issues. Other than foreign policy, I don't think Huck would have a problem with Paul. But it's still not exactly the typical relationship...and is pretty much impossible. But WOW. That would really be a big deal.



I think you really now have jumped the shark.


I don't see how a battle between Romney and Huckabee would be boring? It would get very intense.


I just got off the phone with my buddy...and none of you are going to like what he said.

First off, he called me an idiot for my suggestions on what is going go to happen he does have something in common with all of you.


These were his main points.


He yelled at me on the phone for even bringing this up. If Mike was to endorse, it would not be this early. Mike would not want to play it that this is a non starter according to my buddy in the TPAW camp.


My buddy told me he totally believes the rumor that Huck wants to run and there is no way he is not running. The email does not tell a story of a man who is saying no....he would not use the words he used..Huck is running!!


Again, according to my buddy and the rumor Huck wants to run, Huck has been laying the ground work for the 3rd party run by getting into it with Glenn Beck and the Club for Growth and other parties that I didn't even know about. Mike Huckabee goal tonight is to "pull the trigger" on a trial balloon.

Huck is offering himself up to the nation tonight...according to the rumor.

I asked my friend what type of % are you putting on this..that it's going to go down the way the rumor is stated. My friend said he is wavering on this rumor between 80-90%.



So there it backing down on the rumor.

Now I'm unsure about the whole endorsement idea....

I don't believe the rumor...but yes.....I'm gonna say it..

ready Craig???!!!






Huck back up to 7% for the nomination, 43% to announce.



If Huckabee runs 3rd party and runs against the free market, he may cause the ruin of this great nation.


Who's going to be Huckabee's campaign manager? Glenn Beck

Or would Huckabee make Beck his VP running mate?


Metro #228,

He's not going to do this. Only someone with deep ties to Huckabee's family/inner circle would know info like this.

At this point, I am guessing that maybe he quits his show to undertake a "listening tour." After which, he will launch an exploratory committee and then announce in October/November. Maybe even later.


#229: The point of #226 is that Huckabee has been railing AGAINST Glenn Beck.



On the other hand....if he lights his hair on fire, he might hurt Obama as much as the GOP. If the republican nominee takes independants...we could still win. Seriously though, if huck runs 3rd party, i'll disown him. I've been an admirer of his and supporter of his for a long time. I just can't understand why he would take this moment right now to destroy the party. If he were serious about a 3rd party deal...then he should do it as chairman of a NEW party, not running for president. He could take the time to build a third party(which is already all in place because of the tea party...a party that is fiscally conservative, and pro-life...but neutral on other things). I just don't see this at all as an option. He's either running, not running...or endorsing someone....or ANNOUNCING that he is taking the glenn beck spot. He'll announce he's not running, and that he is taking over the glenn beck on it.

I'm hoping that he eventually endorses T-Paw though. That would be great.


#230 is the most likely scenario.


#230 is also consistent with his line about increasing craziness.



Only if you believe that Janet Huckabee is on board with Huck no longer earning a steady paycheck at Fox and losing her house in Florida.


In 5+ years of this site, I have only made three declaration with the utmost certainty:

1. The 2008 GOP nominee would be either John McCain or Rudy Giuliani - Check

2. Newt Gingrich would run for the 2012 Republican nomination (made in November of 2008) - Check

3. Mike Huckabee will once again seek the Republican nomination in 2012 - We'll find out in a couple of hours.


Craig has heard the rumors as well.

Read his 3rd comment on the Mizzouri thread.

I don't believe these rumors...I should not have put them on here.



This entire article is stunningly wrong. Without having time to read others' comments, let me say that to not include Herman Cain and to include Trump is incorrect. Pawlenty is not Fairfax and neither is Daniels. The two are very very close and need to be put in a separate category from Romney and Huntsman who are big government Republicans, if not moderate Democrats. You could put Gingrich in with Romney and Huntsman for his Cap and Tax baloney, or perhaps with Pawlenty and Daniels as a seasoned establishment figure. Gingrich is not Factional, although he pretends to be as does Pawlenty when he tries to hide his past cap and tax policies under the rug.


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