February 22, 2011

BREAKING: Thune will NOT run in 2012

Thune’s not running, per a prepared statement released today. Here’s the text of the statement

For months now, my wife Kimberley and I have received encouragement from family, friends, colleagues, and supporters from across South Dakota and the country to run for the presidency of the United States. We have appreciated hearing their concerns about where the country is headed and their hopes for a new direction.During this time, Kimberley and I and our two daughters have given a great deal of thought to how we might best serve South Dakota and our nation. That process has involved lots of prayer.

Along the way, we have been reminded of the importance of being in the arena, of being in the fight. And make no mistake that during this period of fiscal crisis and economic uncertainty there is a fight for the future direction of America. There is a battle to be waged over what kind of country we are going to leave our children and grandchildren and that battle is happening now in Washington, not two years from now. So at this time, I feel that I am best positioned to fight for America’s future here in the trenches of the United States Senate.

I want to thank those who have encouraged us and prayed for us during the past several months. We are forever grateful for all the support.

John and Kimberley

by @ 12:13 pm. Filed under Jon Thune
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224 Responses to “BREAKING: Thune will NOT run in 2012”

  1. Ray Brun Says:

    Damn! I thought I broke it in the previous post.

  2. Kavon W. Nikrad Says:

    Funny… Matthew, Max, and me all posted this nearly at the same time. Matthew was first though!

  3. greg Says:

    let the games begin i guess next we wait for newt?

  4. Max Twain Says:

    lol 3 of us in a row. Beat me by a couple of seconds Matty!

  5. Matt C Says:

    Wow…. Thune was never poised to be a top-tier contender, but this is still huge news. There goes my #4 choice.

  6. Kavon W. Nikrad Says:

    Actually, Ray was first :)

  7. teledude Says:

    DeMint – out!
    Pence – out!
    Thune -out!
    Christie – out!
    Huckabee – out!
    Romney- dropping like a rock

    Palin
    Daniels
    Gingrich
    Cain
    Trump

    This thing could be over before a shot is fired.

  8. Max Twain Says:

    Good news for Romney, HUGE news for Pawlenty. 1 less establishment candidate means bad news for the fringe candidates Palin/Bachmann/Huck.

  9. Kavon W. Nikrad Says:

    Huck is by no means out…

  10. Ray Brun Says:

    Thanks Kavon. :-)

  11. RUBIOZONE Says:

    teledude, wgere do you get your information?? I wish you guys would stop posting mere speculations as facts.

  12. RUBIOZONE Says:

    where

  13. RUBIOZONE Says:

    Thune would now make a great pick for veep.

  14. teledude Says:

    ah, in my haste I forgot some of the second tier. (yes, Huckabee is out)

    DeMint – out!
    Pence – out!
    Jeb – out!
    Thune -out!
    Christie – out!
    Huckabee – out!
    Romney- dropping like a rock

    Palin
    Daniels
    Pawlenty
    Gingrich
    Guliani
    Barbour
    Cain
    Trump

    This thing could be over before a shot is fired.

  15. Matthew Kilburn Says:

    Perhaps this is what will be necessary to light a fire under the collective rear ends of the Republican candidates?

    btw, Kavon – I think our header needs some updates!

  16. Matt C Says:

    Thune was trending above 9.2 on Intrade until this announcement.

    Barbour and Pawlenty trending up now as investors digest the news.

  17. Craig for Huck in 2012 Says:

    Big question..

    Where will Thune’s 1% go?

  18. greg Says:

    now that thune said no will this start to pick up the speed on these yes or no decisions since we basically have a ”official” no??

  19. Dave Says:

    teledude,

    Romney dropping like a rock? Did you notice today’s poll showing him number one in the race? And Thune not running removes a competitor for the Competent-candidate market segment Mitt is vying for.

    LOL DUDE!!!

  20. Matt C Says:

    #13, agreed. Thune is top-tier Veep material.

  21. teledude Says:

    bigger question….
    where will Huckabee’s 20+ % go

  22. Craig for Huck in 2012 Says:

    9. Kavon W. Nikrad Says:
    February 22nd, 2011 at 12:19 pm
    Huck is by no means out…

    The voice of reason at Race42012! :)!

  23. Matt C Says:

    Daniels up big now as well…

    Daniels +1.0
    Pawlenty +1.2
    Barbour +1.8

  24. teledude Says:

    I’d say it’s 50/50 right now if Romney will even run.

    He is the establishment candidate, but they are souring on him fast, as they (and everyone else) knows that without Huckabee in the race to divide the conservative base, he has no real chance.

  25. teledude Says:

    Yes, look for Daniels to get a lot of very good press in the next weeks.

    He’s about the establishments last hope.

    Boom.

    this thing could be over before a shot is fired.

  26. Matthew Kilburn Says:

    How much did you pay for that ticket to la-la land?

  27. Max Twain Says:

    Thune hadn’t been fundraising, hadn’t built an organization, all the signs that he would bow out.

    Mike Huckabee has done even less then Thune to prep for a bid……..

    Huckfans conclusion: Huck is the super fantastic frontrunner with a bagillion dollars just waiting for him after he wins Iowa by a 1,000%!!!!!!!!!

  28. greg Says:

    GOV BOB MCDONALD For VP!!

  29. Craig for Huck in 2012 Says:

    Teledude,

    You can’t be serious.

  30. wateredseeds Says:

    teledude,

    STOP POSTING NONSENSE! Huck is not out….YET. Until he makes an official announcement, we have to proceed with the notion that he is strongly considering a run.

  31. teledude Says:

    Max Twain…

    The voice of reason at Race42012!

  32. greg Says:

    who should look for net for a decision newt i take it ?

  33. Craig for Huck in 2012 Says:

    Everything relates to Huck in Max’s world. ;)

  34. teledude Says:

    @ waterseeds – it’s not nonsense dude…it’s reality.

    you are in the first stage…denial.

    You’ll have to work through it.

  35. Craig for Huck in 2012 Says:

    30.wateredseeds Says:
    February 22nd, 2011 at 12:31 pm
    “teledude,

    STOP POSTING NONSENSE! Huck is not out….YET. Until he makes an official announcement, we have to proceed with the notion that he is strongly considering a run.”

    ===

    Exactly.

  36. Matthew Newman Says:

    That’s funny that we all posted at once – and none of us, I’m sure, saw the other posting.

    It is big news. Thune was kind of the Washington insider’s choice. With him out of the running, it’ll be interesting to see where that support base goes.

  37. Fredrick Says:

    teledude, you’ve already soured on Romney. Speak for yourself. A vast number of Republicans support him. It’s inevitable that Romney is running. When his wife Ann introduced him at CPAC his wife said she hopes he runs for President. That’s all you need to know. He’s in!

  38. wateredseeds Says:

    max,

    I understand your reasoning, and i think to a point it is reasonable. But you have to remember…huck’s previous campaign was full of people who were incompetant. They probably aren’t helping him much in preparation for a possible candidacy. I mean, it took about the mind of a 5th grader to understand that huck’s next stop after iowa should have been south carolina. Instead, he wasted time in new hampshire and michigan. Now i understand a token visit to new hampshire…and i even understand a small try in michigan(there is an evangelical base there)…but he HAD to win south carolina. Surely they knew that? Maybe not. Saltzman and Rollins were poison to the last campaign…and huck would have a hard time winning with them around him again.

  39. Jonathan Says:

    This is big for T-Paw and Daniels. Less Midwesterners gives them a greater opening.

    Put Thune on the VP list.

  40. teledude Says:

    That’s what we need, another hen pecked president.

    I wonder if she’d start telling us all what to eat as well…

  41. teledude Says:

    Surgeon Generals warning:

    T-Paw and Daniels cause narcolepsy. Stay away.

  42. Matt C Says:

    Romney now up to his highest level in months as well.

    Thune’s support on Intrade has been doled out as follows (so far – investors are still in flux):

    Barbour +1.8
    Pawlenty +1.2
    Romney +1.1
    Daniels +0.9
    Palin +0.8
    Gingrich +0.6
    Huckabee +0.5

  43. Fredrick Says:

    Huck is OUT!

  44. Fredrick Says:

    Surgeon Generals warning:

    T-Paw and Daniels cause narcolepsy. Stay away.

    HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!

  45. teledude Says:

    ABS

    Anybody But Sarah!

    LOL

    Don’t you wonder why…?

    They know.

  46. letmeeatmywaffle Says:

    #39–no way he’s on the VP list; it’ll go to a diverse candidate, most probably a Hispanic.

    Biggest winner as noted above: Pawlenty. Huck really doesn’t look like running unless he’s drafted with a real expectation of money. Daniels killed himself with social cons when he shouldn’t have. Now Pawlenty will have not a whole lot of competition for social cons in IA, with Romney already suspect. Pawlenty should really focus on IA now.

  47. wateredseeds Says:

    43,

    you guys need to quit saying that. Huck is NOT out. He is sounding more presidential every day. Don’t you watch him? He talks like ronald reagan….though he’s definitely not the granpa figure that Reagan was…i love ronald reagan….we need Ronald Reagan back. Sorry, i got lost daydreaming for a second there. Anyways, huck isn’t out. He is gearing up for a potential run. He doesn’t want to run….but he will if he feels that someone untrustworthy would get the nomination. He’s looking right at Mitch Daniels, and giving daniels the green light and the thumbs up. Daniels has to be polling in double digits by the end of July…or Huck will jump in. It’s that simple.

  48. Deg Says:

    Let’s hope everyone else follow’s Thune’s example. Hopefully, they’ll endorse Romney as they Thune out. Can’t wait for those Romney endorsements start rolling in as soon as he announces.

  49. Matthew Kilburn Says:

    “Hopefully, they’ll endorse Romney as they Thune out”

    pardon?

  50. teledude Says:

    47.

    That’s so weird you hear Reagan when he speaks. I hear Gomer Pyle.

    Of course, I’m not going through the five stages of grief.

    I do get a definite sense of Reagan from one candidate however…

  51. greg Says:

    NOW That thune is a NO who should be next to decide NEWT??

  52. TEX Says:

    teledude Says:

    “bigger question….
    where will Huckabee’s 20+ % go”
    ===================================

    At least 40% to Sarahcuda,according to polls
    that Craig loves and lives for.

  53. Stephen Hall Says:

    Teledude, just because you repeat the slogans doesn’t mean they are ever going to be true. I’d be more worried about your chosen candidate then I would about anybody else.

    Throwing stones in glass houses and such.

  54. teledude Says:

    Snow White and how many dwarfs?

    They keep dropping out.

    There’s not going to be enough to reenact the fairy tale.

    Although…

    Daniels = Sleepy
    Barbour = Dopey
    Pawlenty = Bashful
    Romney = Happy
    Gingrich = Doc

  55. teledude Says:

    They are all afraid of the girl!

    Otherwise, where are they?

    they droppin’ like flies!

    They hidin’ like a democrat senator from Wisconsin!

    Look under the beds!

    LOL

  56. RUBIOZONE Says:

    Biggest winner without a doubt: Daniels….NEW FRESH SMART STRONG …I like Daniels. I just wish he wasn’t so damn short!

  57. Dave Says:

    Pawlenty is definitely the biggest beneficiary of Thune’s announcement. Now, there’s only 1 neighboring state contender in Iowa. There’s only room in the caucuses for one major candidate to emerge as a viable alternative to the frontrunner.

    If Tim’s going to have a chance to go the distance, he’s going to have to win Iowa.

  58. Stephen Hall Says:

    Hmmm, another delusional dude with the likes of Tex. Okay, gotcha. I’ll just ignore you too.

  59. Jonathan Says:

    Dave:

    Pawlenty doesn’t have to win Iowa per se, but he does have to be seen as one of the winners. David Yepsen famously said there are 3 tickets out of Iowa. Pawlenty just needs his ticket punched in order to keep going.

  60. teledude Says:

    I’m crushed you would ignore me, but just for kicks…

    add 40% or 50% of Huckabee’s poll numbers to the Palin column (probably closer to 60% – 70%) and how do all those polls look now?

    Boom.

    Landslide.

    And they ALL know it….

  61. greg Says:

    who likely will decide next newt????????

  62. teledude Says:

    Newt’s in for the first few primaries.

    great resume enhancer, ‘Former candidate for President”

  63. Stephen Hall Says:

    Teledude, your analysis are elementary, your facts questionable, and your conclusions are highly suspicious. Why should I pay any attention to you ? You bring nothing to the table except to cheerlead your candidate.

  64. Craig for Huck in 2012 Says:

    ppppolls tweets:

    Our current folks are Gingrich, Huckabee, Palin, Romney, Paul, Daniels, and Pawlenty
    1 minute ago via web

    Thune was one of the people who got included as an option on all of our state by state GOP 2012 polls. Who gets his spot?
    2 minutes ago via web

    I voted they replace Thune with Bachmann. ;)

  65. teledude Says:

    You are going to get Daniels, Daniels, Daniels in the press now.

    He will be the one everybody is suddenly talking about.

    But there is trouble brewing under the surface of these wtaers:
    http://righttoworkcommittee.org/daniels_petition.aspx?pid=0211

  66. teledude Says:

    @ craig, Bachmann is setting the table for Palin. The girls are tag teaming it, working together.

    The name that’s missing is Herman Cain. He’s been very active in Iowa already, and he’s running on Romney money (proxy candidate to split the conservative base)

  67. Craig for Huck in 2012 Says:

    66.

    Proof? Link?

  68. teledude Says:

    I’m in Iowa. My eyes are wide open.

    Some things are self evident.

  69. mac Says:

    9. At least the boss has some sense.

  70. Stephen Hall Says:

    In other words, no proof. Just as I thought.

  71. Max Twain Says:

    New book about Palin pretty much proves that giving her the nuke codes is insane.

  72. Jonathan Says:

    #70:

    Counting Huckabee out at this stage of the game is ludicrous and should be instantly understood to be ludicrous.

  73. teledude Says:

    Stage 1. Denial
    Stage 2. Anger
    Stage 3. Bargaining
    Stage 4. Depression
    Stage 5. Acceptance

    You guys will get there.

  74. Stephen Hall Says:

    http://www.cbsnews.com/video/watch/?id=7357354n&tag=related;photovideo

    Seems Huck has pretty much laid out his intentions.

    “I may very well run.” That is about the strongest statement of intentions we would get from any of the big three.

  75. Granny T Says:

    LOL at all the “Huckabee is out” comments! Maybe you’ve missed some of his recent coverage.

    Huckabee: I “very well may” seek GOP nod in ’12

    Or how about this tidbit from John Gustavsson’s article on THIS site early this morning? (emphasis mine)

    But Huckabee also acknowledged that he was looking to hire staff to help with the organizational and financial details of a possible campaign, which he admitted were a weak point of his. He said he was concerned, also, that an early start to the campaign would wear down that infrastructure. [...] The former Arkansas governor said he’ll spend part of his book tour reaching out to potential donors in staff, in addition to his public events.

    I’ll be in Dubuque offering money and support!!!

  76. Stephen Hall Says:

    Unfortunately for you, teledude, there must first be an event before any of those stages come.

  77. teledude Says:

    71.

    @ Max

    That’s weird. I wonder why a tell-all negative book about Palin has been shopped around for 9 months with no takers. You’d think that would be an instant best seller with publishers lining up for blocks with huge offers.

    Can you come up with an explanation? I’m at a loss here…

  78. Craig for Huck in 2012 Says:

    “I very well may,” Huckabee on running for president this morning on CBS.

    75.

    Granny, you beat me to it :)

  79. Craig for Huck in 2012 Says:

    74.

    Stephen, too ;)

  80. teledude Says:

    76.
    an event? it’s obvious to those not suffering

    de·ni·al (di-ni-al)

    a. A refusal to accept or believe something, such as a doctrine or belief.
    b. (Psychology) An unconscious defense mechanism characterized by refusal to acknowledge painful realities, thoughts, or feelings.
    4. The act of disowning or disavowing; repudiation.

  81. greg Says:

    with thune out who is the next to watch for a decision anybody know ??????????

  82. Craig for Huck in 2012 Says:

    72.Jonathan Says:
    February 22nd, 2011 at 1:14 pm
    “Counting Huckabee out at this stage of the game is ludicrous and should be instantly understood to be ludicrous.”

    ===

    Exactly, but it does add comedy from the usual characters.

  83. teledude Says:

    74.

    Who does Palin envision at the top of the 2012 GOP ticket:

    “Nobody is more qualified really in multitasking and doing all the things that you need to do as President than a woman, than a mom. … Adding that all up, what I would look for was somebody who, okay, would start off as being you know, a woman, a mom, somebody who’s administered locally, state, interstate with energy issues, so maybe a mayor, a governor, an oil commissioner, maybe somebody who’s already run for something, vice pr— … I don’t know, I don’t know, we’ll see.”

    I find that more compelling than “I may very well not run” oops, I mean “I may very well run.”

  84. Craig for Huck in 2012 Says:

    81.greg Says:
    February 22nd, 2011 at 1:26 pm
    with thune out who is the next to watch for a decision anybody know ??????????

    ===

    Greg,

    My guess is your candiate. ;)

  85. Ray Brun Says:

    Anybody going to write about the fact that the Indiana House Democrats walked out today instead of voting on a state pension/union reform bill?

    This seems to be the path the Democrats are going to take. Just walk out on our responsibilities. Their constituents mirror them so well.

  86. Craig for Huck in 2012 Says:

    *candidate

  87. teledude Says:

    I wonder if Huck would sell any books if everyone knew he wasn’t running…hmmmmm… I wonder…

  88. Craig for Huck in 2012 Says:

    85.

    Doesn’t anyone know how to lock the doors of the chambers?

  89. Craig for Huck in 2012 Says:

    87. Dude,

    Huck’s had about eight best sellers before and after running.

    Did Palin write a book one time?

  90. teledude Says:

    85.

    This could really give Daniels a boost.

    Look at all the attention Walker has gotten in Wisconsin (including some to say he should run for President)

  91. teledude Says:

    89. Palin has written two books that have sold more than all the books of Huckabee, Romney, Pawlenty….

    that was actually funny

    LOL

  92. Matt C Says:

    Craig (and other Huck supporters): of course that’s how Huck answered the question on whether he was going to run for President.

    If he said “no”, he loses the spotlight and all the interest anyone has in him. Once he tells people he’s not running, he becomes yesterday’s news, and nobody cares about a book he wrote about the government.

    Every time he strings people along, he’s just doing what he has to to stay in the spotlight, sell books, get money, and stay relevant.

    Enjoy it while it lasts. Unless his personal vendetta against Romney forces him in the race, Huckabee will be gone and forgotten this fall.

  93. Fredrick Says:

    I wonder if Sarah would sell any books if everyone knew she wasn’t running…hmmmmm… I wonder…

  94. Stephen Hall Says:

    Matt C, your statement is pure speculation. Aren’t you assigning motives to a person’s actions without even knowing why? You have colored all of Huck’s moves with the assumption that he is not running, which is why you believe he is just stringing people along when he is, in fact, making moves to run.

    I can’t trust an analysis like that.

  95. greg Says:

    I REALLY THINK PALIN IS NOT getting in this!

  96. wateredseeds Says:

    teledude,

    YOU HAVE MADE YOURSELF IRRELEVANT. Max is under the assumption that because huck hasn’t put any work in that he probably won’t run. But i still think Max has an inkling that he may. You are spending so much energy trying to convince people he is not running. Who exactly are you pushing for? Daniels?

  97. Stephen Hall Says:

    96, he’s pushing Palin. Go figure.

  98. teledude Says:

    Fredrick, both her books were out when she was not running for anything.

    She has never run for the presidency. She didn’t write a book before her VP run.

    If she announces, her books will take off again and probably sell another couple million.

    If she doesn’t announce (not even a possibility,) she’s already set record sales …. you’re analogy (if that’s what it was) is not very compelling.

  99. Granny T Says:

    Since Thune has publicly announced that he will not be running, I will add South Dakota (thankfully PPP polled with and without Thune)to Palin’s state wins when I update my stats after the two polls are released later this week by PPP.

    Here is what it looks like currently – just imagine it with green in SD instead of the brown:

  100. teledude Says:

    96. 97.

    I am not ‘pushing’ for anyone. While I support Governor Palin’s candidacy, I certainly don’t expect to convert anyone or change their opinions.

    I am but a humble observer of the political landscape.

    I just see things a little different than you guys, who, it appears, are going on flawed polling data and a poor understanding of how this process is shaping up, IMHO.

    Hey, different perspectives make for interesting discussions.

    As for whether or not Huckabee is running, being in Iowa, I have a little insight into this situation you guys may not be privy to.

    I still give him about a 5% chance of running. but that’s it. It would take a really strange confluence of events for it to happen.

    I’m sorry if I am upsetting anyone.

  101. Granny T Says:

    Matt C,
    According to the article from CBS Early Show Co-anchor Chris Wragge noted his new book reads like a presidential platform.

    He writes a policy book, his book tour concentrates on areas he should do well in and you are in denial enough to think he’s not running? rofl Why are you set against it? Is it because Huckabee polls better than your chosen one?

  102. teledude Says:

    99. Granny T, just imagine that map without Huckabee!

    Whoa..the mind boggles.

    Very cool analysis.

  103. Stephen Hall Says:

    “I am not ‘pushing’ for anyone. While I support Governor Palin’s candidacy,”

    I believe this is a clear cut case of contradicting yourself.

    “As for whether or not Huckabee is running, being in Iowa, I have a little insight into this situation you guys may not be privy to.”

    A piss-poor excuse. We have people who live in Iowa that also have insight as well. That doesn’t mean much of anything with proff to back up assertions and hard data to go on.

  104. teledude Says:

    Granny,

    Huckabee hasn’t got the financial backing.

    This is big business. Big. Obama is going to raise one Billion dollars for this race.

    The money guys are not backing Huckabee, and that was one of the things he had mentioned. He said up front, if he couldn’t get the financing he would not run.

    He isn’t going to get the financing. That’s why he shut down Huckabee for President. The GOP establishment is not going to back him, and he saw how hard it is last time without the money guys in your corner.

    He can’t run on small donations from his base. They don’t have enough money, despite their high level of passion for him.

    I am sorry to be the one to bring this bad news.

    Please don’t shoot the messenger like others on here have.

  105. mac Says:

    100 I’m a long time Huckfan from Iowa that keeps close watch on IA and Huck happenings. So enlighten us, from where do you get your insider info?

  106. greg Says:

    sorry i don’t think huckaabee can compete with romney and Donald trumps money!

  107. Matt "MWS" Says:

    Granny,

    Nice map!

  108. Stephen Hall Says:

    Another assumption of yours teledude. Nobody’s going to equal or turn out greater than Obama at fundraising. That means the eventual nominee will have to make up for that enormous deficit some other way, like i dunno, the message maybe ? Either way, the nominee will have to make do with less.

    And who better than Huckabee, who nearly would have won the nomination if not for the mistake of dividing his attention between Michigan and South Carolina? And he operated on a shoe-string budget the whole time.

    However, that is not the issue here teledude. I caught you red-handed contradicting yourself (or lying) in the same sentence, so anything you have to say is already suspect.

  109. Stephen Hall Says:

    “I’m a long time Huckfan from Iowa that keeps close watch on IA and Huck happenings. So enlighten us, from where do you get your insider info?”

    Dude, I think he is just bluffing.

  110. Granny T Says:

    Matt “MWS”,
    Thank you! I’ll try my best to keep a map up to date and as accurate as possible. I love the picture view of what is going on and will be updating information later this week and (per Craig’s suggestion) printing a copy to give to Gov. Huckabee on Sunday in Dubuque.

  111. Matt "MWS" Says:

    So who does Thune endorse, and would it mean anything? Of the contenders, I believe Santorum is the only one he has directly worked with.

  112. Matt "MWS" Says:

    …maybe Gingrich?

  113. Stephen Hall Says:

    MWS, I’ll hedge my bets and say one of the two.

  114. Granny T Says:

    I agree with Stephen. From what I hear about Iowa (with numerous polls to back it up) Huckabee is still leading in Iowa.

  115. teledude Says:

    Stephen,

    Please. Taking half of my sentence out of context to make the opposite point I was making is no proof I am lying or contradicting myself. It actually makes you look like you are trying too hard.

    I am not trying to convert anyone. Yes I have a candidate, don’t you?

    That fact doesn’t mean I am ‘pushing’ anyone. Maybe you’re pushing too hard.

    I guess we’ll all know in a few months who is right. There is no need for your anger or attitude.

    When Bob Vander Plaats lets me know Huckabee is running, I’ll buy it. But I know the DC money guys have said no.

    Again, you are shooting the messenger. (that’s okay – I can take it!)

  116. greg Says:

    matt you really think newt gets in this because I have doubt’s still on him even jumping in ?

  117. teledude Says:

    Yes Granny, Huckabee is #1 in Iowa by a pretty wide margin.

    Even if he waited and jumped in late he could probably still win the state.

  118. teledude Says:

    Newt will run.

    Great resume enhancer, plus, he is ego driven. He may actually believe he can win this.

  119. Matt "MWS" Says:

    greg,

    Who knows? I’d say Newt’s about 50/50.

  120. wateredseeds Says:

    One hardcore volunteer that devotes just 10 hours a week to spreading a message for a candidate, is worth more than 25,000 dollars in the long haul. Money is temporary…but building from a solid base of support…that has power. It is more difficult to get a campaign going without money, but huck has WAY MORE support now than he did at this point last time. In fact, he was still polling in single digits up until the fall. So no matter what, he is starting off better than last time.

  121. mac Says:

    115 you and BVP are boys?

  122. Matt C Says:

    Granny T,

    I’m not opposed to Huck running. This is what you Huck folks don’t understand – as a Romney guy, I would love to see Palin and Huckabee both run, because it divides the nutty “who’s more Christian” religious right vote in the primaries.

    I hope Huckabee jumps in.

    I just don’t think he’s going to. I’m looking analytically at all the facts out there, and I can’t make myself come to the conclusion that he’s in. Maybe I’ll be wrong. But everything he’s doing seems to be geared toward living a cush life in the private sector.

    Ironically enough, the one thing that could actually end up helping Romney in the end is Huck’s hatred of the man. If Huckabee despises Mitt enough to jump in, it might divide that vote enough to propel Mitt to victory. I love a story with a good twist like that. :)

  123. teledude Says:

    Plus, I believe Santorum is being financed with Gingrich money.

    Another proxy situation.

    Newt knows he’s weak among social conservatives, so by bringing Santorum in he can split their vote and dilute their political power somewhat, making his hill a little easier to climb.

  124. jerseyrepublican Says:

    Thune won’t endorse until right before the primaries(Iowa Caucus) and since he is a party guy, his endorsement will either go to Romney, Daniels or Pawlenty…whoever the Party is backing. The party will not back Gingrich because they know he cannot beat Obama.

  125. greg Says:

    WHAT ARE THE REAL chances palin even gets in this cause i don’t see it happening ?

  126. teledude Says:

    be careful Matt.

    They really don’t like to hear that.

    I actually think it’s Huck’s dislike of Romney that will keep him out, as he understand the dynamic as well as you do.

  127. jerseyrepublican Says:

    The difference between Huck now and Huck last time is that last time he was an unknown with little chance of getting the nomination. There was no reason to target him…especially since he was shadowing McCain. This time around he is, possibly, the front runner…he’ll have to spend ten times as much to counter the attacks he is going to get…money it doesn’t like he can get a hold of.

    But who knows?

  128. Stephen Hall Says:

    “Again, you are shooting the messenger.”

    How quaint. In the same thread you were mocking us, and now falling back on the “I’m neutral” position? Coward. At least stick to a position.

    I don’t have to take your sentences out of contex. You did that to yourself. Your making statements and insinuations without any facts or logic to back it up. Your conclusions are based on speculation, and then you have the unmitigated gall to say your not pushing a candidate when in fact, you are. You’ve been insinuating it all over this thread.

    There is a single word for you, you are a liar.

  129. teledude Says:

    @ greg, she’s been running since August of 2009.

  130. Franklin Says:

    At this point in time, I think Huckabee is leaning against running. However I do think he will likely take a last look at it over the summer. I saw some
    of the remarks he made to Karen Tumulty and he didn’t seem enthused about it and it seemed he was hoping someone should step up.

    As to Palin, it’s hard to believe that she would walk away from her tv show
    and a deal worth potentially up to $8 million just to make everyone think she might run.

    Also interesting was that Thune said that what Palin did would factor into his decision. Maybe he thinks she’s running as well.

  131. jerseyrepublican Says:

    125 – about 80 – 90% chance she’s in.

  132. wateredseeds Says:

    124,

    Thune will endorse Daniels or Pawlenty…whoever is leading in Iowa at that point. He won’t endorse Romney. BTW: I think it’s funny that the current governor of Nebraska was a romney guy in 08′ and Huck is the one leading in Nebraska. Shows just about how much endorsements matter….you have to really matter in a state for it to mean something. Thune’s endorsement will have more effect in South Dakota than it would in Iowa.

  133. Stephen Hall Says:

    “I’m not opposed to Huck running.”

    Yes you are. If you weren’t, your analysis wouldn’t be colored by the underlying assumption that Huck isn’t running.

  134. teledude Says:

    Stephen, it’s time for your medication.

  135. teledude Says:

    BTW

    Huckabee isn’t running.

  136. teledude Says:

    130. Ding Ding Ding.

    Very astute observation re: Thune/Palin.

    they droppin’ like flies!

  137. jerseyrepublican Says:

    130 – as far as I know, Pain has already turned down another season of her show.

  138. greg Says:

    so basically tim pawlenty is the next decision we are waiting for now that thune said NO ?

  139. teledude Says:

    I think Stephen may have progressed from denial to anger.

    It’s progress.

  140. Stephen Hall Says:

    Thats laughable coming from you, teledude. I’m not the one who’s attempting to shoot both sides out his mouth.

    “Huckabee isn’t running.”

    Go on. Keep repating that. Maybe you’ll magically wish it to be true.

  141. Stephen Hall Says:

    “I think Stephen may have progressed from denial to anger.”

    Another example of your duplicity.

  142. teledude Says:

    130. – 137. Yes.
    They begged her for another season (highest rated new show ever on their network) but she’s going to be busy.

  143. jerseyrepublican Says:

    138 – Pawlenty is in. He has nothing to lose. Doubtful he wants to go back to practicing law…so running for President is a win-win for him.

  144. wateredseeds Says:

    138,

    Pawlenty is already running. He hasn’t made it official because he doesn’t want to look desperate. He’s been running since before the 08′ campaign ended. I think he was a little miffed too that he got passed over for Palin. Him and Romney were both on the short list, and i think it is interesting that McCain went with an unknown alaska governor that could temporarily excite the base…rather than being king maker for 2012. Romney or Pawlenty could already have this locked up if McCain would’ve chose one of them. Of course, i think the best choice would’ve been Huckabee…but no one in McCain’s camp liked Huck. He wasn’t even short listed. It’s sad that Huck put so much energy into defending McCain only to not even get the honor of being short listed.

  145. greg Says:

    ANY BODY THINK gov chris christy running in 2012

  146. teledude Says:

    141. You seem angry to me.

    Stage 1. Denial
    Stage 2. Anger
    Stage 3. Bargaining
    Stage 4. Depression
    Stage 5. Acceptance

    I’ve been saying pretty much the same thing throughout this thread. There is no duplicity coming from me.

    Huckabee is not running.

    Romney is about 50/50.

    They are all waiting to see what Palin does.

    Because they know.

  147. wateredseeds Says:

    145,

    NO. He’s too smart be a moron.

  148. teledude Says:

    Why is Huckabee so disliked by all the other candidates?

  149. teledude Says:

    145. no

  150. greg Says:

    ANY BODY really thinks Donald trump gets in this can’t figure him out should we take his 2012 consideration serious??

  151. jerseyrepublican Says:

    Trump isn’t running. He’s an ego-maniac. I think he feels irrelevant so rather than pick a fight with Rosie O’Donnell he’s going to talk about running for President.

  152. Stephen Hall Says:

    Like I said, teledude, you’re being duplicous. You made the statement that you don’t want to offend anyone, and then decide to mock the Huck supporters, and then mock me personally.

  153. jerseyrepublican Says:

    If he does run…which is doubtful…it will only to be a flame-thrower at the debates…to get some press.

  154. jerseyrepublican Says:

    152 – I can’t speak for teledude, but just as I admit that the polls do not look good for Palin, you must admit that it doesn’t look like Huckabee is going to run. Granted he can enter late if he can raise the money. I bet he starts an exploratory campaign after his book tour. If his PAC continues to show lackluster numbers after the first quarter, then I would bet he will see the writing on the wall.

  155. Welby Says:

    Does Huck have to quit his TV show immediately after announcing he will run?

    He might want to take in as much cash as he can prior to announcing, thus waiting until mid/end of Summer.

    If he does have to quit, does he have enough cash to support himself (personal bills etc.) until the election?

  156. Stephen Hall Says:

    154, despite his own statements to the contrary. In order to keep myself from being biased, I operate under the perception that everyone is running until they say they are not. That is the only way you can makle predictions, considering that you are not a psychic and can get into a candidate’s head.

    Take Palin for instance. My gut instinct tells me she is not running. My mind operates on the assumption she is. We have a word for that, it is called objectivity. Also known as putting aside your biases in order to make a correct judgement.

  157. teledude Says:

    155. Yes he would have to quit his TV show.

    No he doesn’t have enough money.

    He just took out a 2.5 million dollar mortgage on his new house in Florida. Imagine what the monthly payments on that must be.

  158. Stephen Hall Says:

    Welby, that is assured. It would be in violation of the equal times stipulation for networks hosting the candidates.

  159. jerseyrepublican Says:

    156 – maybe Huck is going to use his book sales as a judge of any interest in a run. If people won’t spend money on his book…they definitely will not donate to his campaign.

    We shall see.

  160. greg Says:

    HUCKABEE can’t get it done on general election night!

  161. greg Says:

    and i don’t think palin can too when it comes to general election vs obama

  162. Craig for Huck in 2012 Says:

    Greg,

    Is your candidate the only one you think can?

  163. jerseyrepublican Says:

    162 – that would make greg like every other supporter on this board.

  164. greg Says:

    Not to be mean but I would like to win in 2012 (Some on this board I hope do too!)and I am thinking reality and Huckabee can’t get it done The only thing that matters in NOv 2012 GOP canidate VS obama and Huckabee and Palin can’t get it done in a general election sorry!

  165. Craig for Huck in 2012 Says:

    Today..

    NEWSWEEK Huckabee and Obama TIED
    NEWSWEEK Obama +2 over Romney
    NEWSWEEK Obama +11 over Palin

    Last week..

    PPP (D) 2/11 – 2/14 600 RV 47 44 Obama +3 over Huck
    PPP (D) 2/11 – 2/14 600 RV 46 41 Obama +5 over Romney
    PPP (D) 2/11 – 2/14 600 RV 52 40 Obama +12 over Palin

    Last month..

    Rasmussen Reports 1/11 – 1/14 2000 LV 43 43 Huck/Obama Tied
    Rasmussen Reports 1/3 – 1/6 2000 LV 42 44 Romney +2 over Palin
    Rasmussen Reports 1/7 – 1/10 2000 LV 49 38 Obama +11 over Palin

  166. teledude Says:

    163. I think any republican can beat Obama.

    People are sick of him.

  167. Craig for Huck in 2012 Says:

    over *Obama

  168. teledude Says:

    craig those polls are meaningless this far out.

  169. Craig for Huck in 2012 Says:

    ..You pray

  170. Fredrick Says:

    Palin CANNOT beat Obama! PERIOD!

  171. Craig for Huck in 2012 Says:

    I’m sure Romney and Huckabee would LOVE to be double digits behind in all the polls like the Sarahcuda!!!

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_palin_vs_obama-1169.html

  172. teledude Says:

    Didn’t bother Ronald Reagan. He was 25% behind carter 6 months out.

    Any real conservative is going to get beat up in the press.

    That’s what campaigns are for. And this country is still a majority conservative country. The Marxist usurper will not be re-elected.

  173. Smittens for Mittens Says:

    Please don’t confuse correlation with causation. Kthxbye.

  174. Craig for Huck in 2012 Says:

    170. 170.Fredrick Says:
    February 22nd, 2011 at 3:52 pm
    “Palin CANNOT beat Obama! PERIOD!”

    ===

    She can’t even beat Huckabee, Romney, or Gingrich in Alaska WHERE THEY KNOW HER BEST!

    PPP 2012 Republican Primary

    Huck 17
    Mitt 16
    Newt 16
    SP 15

  175. Craig for Huck in 2012 Says:

    172.

    Ronald Reagan, TWO TERM Governor of California

    versus

    Sarah Palin, 30 month quitter from Alaska

  176. Craig for Huck in 2012 Says:

    172.

    Teledude,

    Is this your first rodeo?

  177. teledude Says:

    I guess you guys will all welcome her into the race with open arms then.

    That’s so different from what we’ve been hearing from the left and the establishment republicans…they all say she shouldn’t run.

    Why is that I wonder?

  178. teledude Says:

    I was going to ask you the same thing craig.

    Your reliance on these bogus polls meant to influence opinion instead of reflect it makes you look very amateurish.

    Certainly not very sophisticated when it comes to politics.

  179. Max Twain Says:

    I think I will have to pull my support for Gov. Daniels.

    http://www.nationalreview.com/campaign-spot/260410/mitch-daniels-indiana-republicans-should-drop-right-work-bill

    Putting aside social issues is one thing, but caving to the unions’ tactics is another. Sorry Mitch, you’re out.

  180. teledude Says:

    179. Yeah, I posted the same thing upthread.

    Troubling, but the establishment really has no one else unless Romney rebounds.

  181. Max Twain Says:

    180

    I think T-Paw might get another look, and more pressure will be put on Christie to jump in.

  182. Smittens for Mittens Says:

    If Palin runs, she needs to be prepared to get ready for THIS:

    http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0211/49938.html

    Some choice highlights:

    “When an Anchorage TV news station, KTUU, ran an online poll in May asking Alaskans if they agreed with her decision to reject federal stimulus dollars for energy, Bailey writes that Palin’s small inner-circle “invested time, energy, and emotion into linking our computers and utilizing our software into generating votes in favor.”

    Refreshing the results to run up the votes, they emailed one another.

    When an aide said Palin was initially leading in the unscientific survey, the governor responded: “Oh thank God!””

  183. Max Twain Says:

    Twitter is exploding against Daniels. All of the goodwill he built with his speech has just been destroyed. His governorship might be over as well.

  184. Stephen Hall Says:

    Sigh, Daniel, you really put your foot into it this time.

  185. Max Twain Says:

    Daniels is no better then Huck at this point. That’s as horrible an insult I can give.

  186. Grany T Says:

    I just finished reading a lengthy interview with Huckabee. He was asked about the Mormon issue for Romney and answered pretty much like he has been answering all along. He was also asked about the birther and Muslim questions about Obama. Even some of his strong supporters differ with him on his answers. What do ya’ll think?

  187. Craig for Huck in 2012 Says:

    182.

    They do love their internet polls. That’s about all they do over at Cons4Palin, and then tout the results as meaningful. A bunch of newbies like teledude.

  188. Stephen Hall Says:

    Well, if Daniels was flacky with social issues, whatever gave you the idea he wasn’t going to be flacky with fiscal issues as well? Cowardice in one area often always means cowardice in all areas.

  189. Craig for Huck in 2012 Says:

    Bye-bye, Mitch.

    IMHO,

    We’re down to Eight..

    Huck
    Mitt
    Cain
    T-Paw
    Newtie
    Barbour
    Santorum
    Ron Paul or Gary Johnson

  190. Max Twain Says:

    Today, for the first time, Daniels looks and sounds like Dick Lugar. Career, as it pertains to the presidency, is over.

    Chris Christie, the stage is yours.

  191. Max Twain Says:

    BTW, what a HUGE day for Romney. Thune is out and Daniels implodes.

  192. Grany T Says:

    Twitter is exploding against Daniels. All of the goodwill he built with his speech has just been destroyed. His governorship might be over as well.

    :( It is so hard for conservatives to fight against mass protests – especially when they are led by a community organizer that was raised by protesters. I read earlier that Indiana Dem house members are following the WI Senate Dems by tucking tail and running from their duties. I wish someone would follow up on Jonathan’s comment #2 and post a detailed article about it. I did a little bit of research on the Deutsch Arbreitsfront after reading it. All I can say is “WOW! and they had the nerve to paint Hitler mustaches on pics of Gov. Walker?”

  193. Max Twain Says:

    Craig, you forgot Huntsman

  194. greg Says:

    is Daniels officially out??

  195. Craig for Huck in 2012 Says:

    Granny T,

    Great piece with great answers today..

    Mike Huckabee is tired of having social conservatives dismissed as irrelevant when fiscal priorities dominate the political discussion. “The idea that there is a conflict—if there is, it’s not among social conservatives,” he says. He also wants Americans to stop talking about President Obama’s birth certificate and spreading false rumors that he is a Muslim, saying it’s “inappropriate, wrong-headed, and not helpful to the overall discussion.” Christianity Today spoke with Huckabee about prioritizing economic and social issues, whether a candidate’s faith matters, and why he would enter the presidential race in the summer if he runs.

    Read more at #186, Granny’s link.

  196. Craig for Huck in 2012 Says:

    Thanks, Max :)

  197. Grany T Says:

    Jonathan,
    Are you out there? Are you willing to answer the call for my post #192? Or do we have any other history majors willing to take on the challenge?

  198. Stephen Hall Says:

    194, as in whether he says he is out or not, that is up in the air. However, his prospects just got a lot tougher.

    He first threw social conservatives under the bus, and now fiscal conservatives the next victims.

  199. Matt Y. Says:

    Dang it! So my favorite candidates are down to Palin, Pawlenty, and Santorum.

  200. Max Twain Says:

    Craig, yea had to remind you because he hired some more people, or his PAC did, and launched a website today too.

    Also wouldn’t count out Rick Perry, based on the legislative agenda he is pushing.

  201. Craig for Huck in 2012 Says:

    Imo,

    The key for my camp is getting it to Huck versus Mitt going into SC.

    Also having the Midwestern candidates all drop out so Huck can clean up in that region to go with his strength in the South, Florida, and Texas. Also Huck looks good in PA head to head against Romney.

    Pence, Thune and Daniels out = A Good Start

    And Barbour, Santorum, and Cain are not as much SoCon competition to Huck as some Romney supporters think.

  202. Craig for Huck in 2012 Says:

    Rick Perry would work for me.

  203. Franklin Says:

    So I guess when Ronald Reagan was 25 points behind Carter, he should not have run? The election is not tomorrow. It’s a year from now. One of the participants in the Long Island event that Palin participated in said this,
    “When you see her in person, you realize she’s not the idiot they make her out to be on TV,” said Michael Raab, 39, chief operating officer of CMS LLC, an insurance wholesaler based in Massapequa, New York. “She’ll change more minds if she does more interactions like this.”

  204. teledude Says:

    You make good points Craig.

    Listen to this idea.

    With Milt dropping (according to the tell all book, that’s what Sarah calls him) and Daniels imploding now, maybe the establishment will turn ot Huckabee.

    They are desperate to stop Palin at all costs, and although they don’t like Huckabee, they may turn to him due to his consistently high poll numbers and the weakness of the rest of the field.

    They tried to get Jeb in and he refused. I thought there was a possibility Daniels could play this union thing to his advantage, but a squish is always a squish.

    so after today’s revelations, I think Huckabee may have a little life breathed into him. Of course, he still doesn’t want it, and his wife is totally opposed to it, but if those big money guys show him a little attention, I think he may just run. I’m going to have to evaluate all this again.

    It has been an interesting day.

  205. wateredseeds Says:

    I’m getting tired of this. I’m gonna need Huck to run….i don’t think there is very many viable candidates left that aren’t named Mitt Romney…and i will write in Jesus before i vote for Romney in the primary. Hey, you think if we all write in Jesus…that he would come back and spare us of 4 more years of Obama? Or do you think some mexican illegal would claim we were voting for him? :)

  206. teledude Says:

    203. Of course Franklin.

    They don’t want to admit that possibility.

    It’s psychologically easier to just dismiss her as an idiot that entertain the reality that she is the best political tactician in America right now.

    Which is why no one has announced yet and why they are dropping out like flies. But the establishment will find someone to run against her, because if she gets it, it screws up Jeb in 2016. They can’t have that.

  207. Stephen Hall Says:

    And here I thought you just said you weren’t pushing Palin…

  208. Granny T Says:

    Huckabee has consistently been doing well in polls. He has also consistently said how much he admires Jeb. What if Huckabee runs, wins the nomination, and adds Jeb to the ticket? That way the grassroots are happy, the establishment is happy, and Jeb gets to be next in line in 2020.

  209. Craig for Huck in 2012 Says:

    Granny,

    I’m in! :)!

  210. Craig for Huck in 2012 Says:

    And..

    Bolton = Sec of State
    Romney = Sec of Commerce
    Gingrich = Budget Director
    Pawlenty = Sec of Treasury
    Sarah Palin = Sec of Interior
    Haley Barbour = Attorney General
    Jon Huntsman Jr = Chief of Staff

  211. Craig for Huck in 2012 Says:

    teledude Says:
    February 22nd, 2011 at 5:08 pm
    “..dismiss her as an idiot that entertain the reality that she is the best political tactician in America right now.”

    ===

    The TRUTH is that she’s neither one.

  212. teledude Says:

    This is going to be such a fun election cycle.

    I really can’t wait for it to heat up.

    DeMint – out!
    Pence – out!
    Jeb – out!
    Thune -out!
    Christie – out!
    Huckabee – out!
    Daniels – out! (or at least badly damaged)
    Romney- dropping like a rock

    Palin…

    Which one of these last few will really stay in?

    Pawlenty?
    Gingrich?
    Guliani? – will only run if (when) Sarah runs
    Barbour?
    Cain – out if Romney drops out
    Trump?
    Santorum? – in as long as Gingrich is in

    This thing could be over before a shot is fired.

  213. Craig for Huck in 2012 Says:

    Palin – dropped like a rock

    http://polltracker.talkingpointsmemo.com/contests/us-favorability-palin

  214. Craig for Huck in 2012 Says:

    Huckabee – out in front!

    I fixed it for you, Palindude (I mean Teledude). You’re welcome :)

    http://polltracker.talkingpointsmemo.com/contests/us-favorability-huckabee

  215. Franklin Says:

    Given that she is still standing, it does show she is a survivor. If you take the earlier poll she is at 40%, only 1 point behind Romney, 4 behind Huckabee and 10 away from 50%. She’s skillfully used twitter and facebook to stay relevent.

  216. Vote for Truth Says:

    Why does everybody care so much about Thune dropping out. He was only getting 1-3% in any polls. How does that help Romney since it’s such a small percentage? You would think Thune was in the top three candidates the way all of you are obsessing about this announcement. He didn’t have a chance anyway and he saw that.

  217. Craig for Huck in 2012 Says:

    Good point, VFT.

    That’s what I was thinking with my very first question on this thread: ;)

    17.Craig for Huck in 2012 Says:
    February 22nd, 2011 at 12:24 pm

    Big question..

    Where will Thune’s 1% go?

  218. Grandma T Says:

    To all you Huckabee lovers: According to my son ( who is in the radio business) Huckabee signed a 3 year contract for his radio show. He is building a 3 mil house in Florida and has the Fox show. He has to end the radio show and the tv show to run. Are you sure he wants to give up his bread and butter to run? If he does, he will thrown in late.

  219. Grandma T Says:

    throw

  220. FayetteCountyIowaGOPchair Says:

    This is great news for T-Paw.

    http://fayettecountyrepublicanpartyiowa.blogspot.com/

    http://www.iowansforpawlenty.com

  221. Craig for Huck in 2012 Says:

    218.

    I noticed you didn’t provide a link about a new contract. I wonder why. The other info is from months past. Btw, One bestselling book (and Huck’s wrote eight) will pay that mortgage

    And you know we already have a “Granny T” who posts here daily. So what’s with the Grandma T handle? Are you trying to confuse?

  222. Granny T Says:

    Craig,
    There are a lot of people with last names that start with T. I’m sure there are many of those people that are grandmothers. I don’t have a problem with Grandma T using that as her pseudonym – because IMO the majority of those that frequent Race42012 are intelligent enough to recognize the difference.

    Grandma T,
    Welcome to the discussion.

  223. Granny T Says:

    Grandma T,
    I would imagine that Huckabee is smart enough that his contracts were not signed in blood.

  224. Grandma Tonya Says:

    Thanks Granny T for the welcome. I used to add my two cents in the last race when it was just me as Grandma T After the election I dropped out of the discussion. It is kind of sad that Craig for Huck feels the need to attack a fellow blogger. In fact, I am a little too thin skinned for this place.

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