February 19, 2011

Poll Analysis: The States (2/19)

First the Horse Race numbers:

(Horse Race) Del Daniels Gringrich Huckabee Palin Paul Pawlenty Romney Thune Other/Und
IA (1/11) 28 1 13 30 15 6 4 18 3 10
NV (1/10) 28 1 18 14 19 7 1 31 1 8
PA (1/10) 72 2 15 26 21 5 6 16 9
TX (1/19) 152 3 17 25 21 9 5 10 8
NJ (1/25) 50 3 15 18 14 8 4 18 2 19
NC (1/28) 55 3 18 27 16 6 7 11 1 10
WV (1/28) 31 2 17 28 23 6 5 10 0 8
SC (2/1) 50 3 13 26 18 7 4 20 8
NE (2/3) 35 1 18 21 19 8 4 15 3 12
AZ (2/4) 57 2 15 19 15 5 4 23 1 16
SD (2/4) 28 1 10 11 12 5 2 12 37 10
CA (2/7) 172 2 18 15 16 10 3 22 1 12
NM (2/10) 23 3 15 18 22 6 7 16 12
CO (2/11) 36 3 12 16 16 9 7 19 4 16
TN (2/16) 58 3 11 31 17 10 3 11 1 14
Weighted Ave 2 16 22 18 8 4 17 2 11

Now the weighted average trend graph:


Not much happening there.


Now for the vs. Obama numbers:

(vs. Obama) EV Gingrich Huckabee Palin Romney
PA (1/6) 20 -10 -3 -15 -4
NV (1/7) 6 -11 -10 -13 -1
NJ (1/11) 14 -17 -17 -30 -15
IA (1/12) 6 -13 -4 -16 -6
TX (1/20) 38 5 16 1 7
NC (1/25) 15 -6 -4 -9 -3
WV (1/27) 5 10 18 4 13
NE (1/31) 5 8 13 1 12
SD (2/1) 3 -2 6 -8 6
SC (2/2) 9 -1 6 -6 7
AZ (2/2) 11 0 4 -8 6
CA (2/3) 55 -23 -15 -31 -20
CO (2/8) 9 -14 -9 -19 -6
NM (2/9) 5 -21 -19 -29 -16
TN (2/17) 11 3 12 0 7
Weighted Ave. -9 -2 -15 -5

And the weighted average tread graph:

All of our hopefuls gained last week.  Beyond that, little changed in their relative positions. Huckabee is still on top and Palin is still on the bottom.


Here is a new feature — The Electoral Vote Tally.  As you know, the electoral votes of a state are awarded winner-take-all.  It doesn’t matter if someone wins a state by one vote, or one million.  They still get all of that state’s electoral votes.

So using the data from the last table, here is how the electoral voting stands now:

(EV) Gingrich Huckabee Palin Romney
(2/19/11) -94 -48 -116 -48

And in graphical form:

Once again, we see where all of our hopefuls are underwater vs. Obama.  Huckabee and Romney do the best while Gingrich and Palin lag behind.  Palin is the furtherest back.

Trackback URL for this post:
http://race42016.com/2011/02/19/poll-analysis-the-states-219/trackback/

10 Responses to “Poll Analysis: The States (2/19)”

  1. Craig for Huck in 2012 Says:

    Pretty cool, Mark :)

  2. Craig for Huck in 2012 Says:

    I think Maine is currently being polled this weekend for it’s 3rd time at PPP.

    Here’s the previous two..

    Maine 11/11/10 {and 9/13/10}

    Sara 23 {21}
    Mitt 18 {27}
    Huck 16 {14}
    Newt 14 {15}

    I predict it will now be about.. Sarah 19/Mitt 19/Huck 17/Newt 16

  3. Granny T Says:

    Great job, Mark. Thank you for keeping up with these. Have you seen the map I worked up with the latest polling info from the 33 states polled by various polling companies since the midterms?

  4. Texas Conservative Says:

    Mark thanks for your continued updating on this information.

    GrannyT’s map shows us that Mike Huckabee has painted the heartland red. The data/map doesn’t even include southern states that have yet to be pulled.

    The data shows that Mike Huckabee is not a southern/regional candidate.

  5. heath Says:

    Romney behind Palin and just ahead of Newt? You must be on drugs.

  6. Thunder Says:

    What about New Hampshire. It will have far more influence than most of the other above. In my mind, the ones that Matter are Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, SC, and Florida. In that order. The rest are interesting but not relevant

  7. Benjamin Says:

    This is really a four person race with Huckabee and Romney positioned to make it a two person race. It also shows that there is a significant show of support for Huckabee that goes beyond the south.

  8. Ogrepete Says:

    I’m impressed with all the number crunching, Mark.

    Thanks, again!

  9. Craig for Huck in 2012 Says:

    6.

    Nevada’s never mattered before. I doubt Huck, our frontruner even bothers to contest it.

    Which means it will matter even less.

  10. Craig for Huck in 2012 Says:

    *front-runner

Join The Community


Sponsored Ad

Meta

Site Meter

Recent Posts

Sponsored Ad

Categories

Archives

Search

Blogroll

Site Syndication

Main