A number of people have asked me why I have not been posting the more detailed polling analysis that I used to do on a regular basis. There were several reasons:
I feel the time is right to begin them again. So here is my first horse race analysis.
Oh, one more thing. As before, I am relying strictly upon Public Policy Polling (PPP) for my data. I have always found that they are a perfectly reputable polling firm, one of the best. Certainly, they have their biases. All polling firms do. The important thing is by taking data only from one source, any biases that there might be should be consistent from poll to poll. Any trends that show up will be for real. And at this stage of the game, trends are far more important than any one data point.
So, here is the history of PPP’s Horse Race polls so far this year:
The second column is the number of delegates that each state will send to the 2012 Republican convention. It is used to weigh the weighted average.
Here is the graph:
So far, it isn’t much. It only shows one week. But as a new data point in added each week, we should be able to readily spot any trends that might arise.
Oh, one more thing. I plan on making the weighted average a moving average of two months. In that way, data more than two months old will be eliminated. Only data that is reasonably current will be affecting the analysis.