January 14, 2010

Poll Watch: Rasmussen New Jersey Gubernatorial Survey

  6:48 pm

Rasmussen New Jersey Gubernatorial Survey

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of Chris Christie?

  • Favorable 57% (49%) [48%] <49%> {47%} (46%)
  • Unfavorable 35% (47%) [50%] <49%> {47%} (51%)

What is the biggest problem facing Chris Christie as he takes over as governor of New Jersey….taxes, government spending, unemployment, education, crime or corruption?

  • Taxes 33%
  • Government spending 28%
  • Unemployment 22%
  • Corruption 8%
  • Education 5%
  • Crime 1%

What issue should Chris Christie tackle first as Governor?

  • Government spending 34%
  • Taxes 29%
  • Unemployment 24%
  • Corruption 6%
  • Education 2%
  • Crime 2%

How likely is it that Chris Christie will be able to improve the economy in New Jersey?

  • Very likely 9%
  • Somewhat likely 41%
  • Not very likely 34%
  • Not at all likely 6%

How likely is it that Chris Christie will be able to cut property taxes in New Jersey?

  • Very likely 9%
  • Somewhat likely 30%
  • Not very likely 44%
  • Not at all likely 9%

How difficult will it be for Christie to work with the Democratic-controlled Legislature?

  • Very difficult 41%
  • Somewhat difficult 46%
  • Not very difficult 9%
  • Not at all difficult 1%

How would you rate the job Jon Corzine has been doing as Governor?

  • Strongly approve 9% (17%) [20%] <14%> {11%} (15%)
  • Somewhat approve 27% (20%) [21%] <25%> {30%} (25%)
  • Somewhat disapprove 21% (15%) [14%] <15%> {16%} (18%)
  • Strongly disapprove 41% (46%) [44%] <44%> {42%} (41%)

How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President?

  • Strongly approve 31% [38%] <35%> {34%} (38%)
  • Somewhat approve 22% [17%] <18%> {19%} (19%)
  • Somewhat disapprove 10% [10%] <11%> {11%} (10%)
  • Strongly disapprove 37% [34%] <35%> {35%} (33%)

Survey of 500 likely voters was conducted January 13, 2010. The margin of error is +/- 4.5 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted November 9, 2009 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted October 29 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted October 26 are in angle brackets. Results from the poll conducted October 19 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted October 14 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers:

Democrats think that tackling unemployment should be the incoming Governor’s top priority. For Republicans and unaffiliated voters, cutting government spending is atop the list.


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Another problem for Dems


Two of the main reasons we've heard over and over about why Republicans did so well in New Jersey and Virginia in November and why they continue to poll so well for 2010 races are that they're more motivated to get out to the polls than Democrats and that independents are leaning their way. Those things are definitely true and we're seeing them in Massachusetts too. One emerging problem for Dems getting less attention is that there's a decent amount of opposition to the health care bill within the party ranks and that's driving some of those voters over to the Republican side.

We stopped asking about health care in our NJ and Va. polling about a month before the election but in late September we found that Bob McDonnell had a 61-33 lead over Creigh Deeds with Democrats who opposed the health care plan and that Chris Christie was up 38-31 on Jon Corzine with those folks as well.

In Massachusetts it's a similar story with Scott Brown up 61-24 with those folks, which based on our current projection of likely voters accounts for 20% of Massachusetts Democrats. One of the keys to Democratic success in 2008, for all the bluster about the PUMA crowd, was a high level of party unity. Barack Obama held onto 89% of his party's voters. If health care creates bigger divisions within the party ranks than that this year it's just going to be one more strike against Democratic candidates in close races.

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