December 19, 2009

POWER RANKINGS: December

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  1. Mitt Romney – Gov. Romney remains in the best position to win the GOP nomination, however the fallout from Gov. Mike Huckabee’s clemency of a cop killer may hurt Romney as well. If the clemency problems force Huckabee out of the race, then Gov. Sarah Palin could consolidate social conservative support in the early states and pose a serious threat to Romney’s chances.  On the other hand, Romney has held steady throughout the year, experiencing none of the problems that have plagued his potential rivals.  That doesn’t mean that trouble isn’t rearing it’s head around the corner.  Gov. Romney’s healthcare plan will likely loom large throughout the next year, with the New Hampshire Union Leader firing the first major shot across the bow in a recent article that also showed signs of support for another Romney rival, Gov. Tim Pawlenty. Although this is a major hurdle, Romney’s rivals also have major obstacles, from Gov. Palin’s resignation, Gov. Pawlenty’s cap-and-trade problems, to Gov. Huckabee’s clemencies.  Whomever handles these problems the best will likely be the front-runner. The slow and steady approach of Gov. Romney has earned him the top spot in the final rankings of 2009.
  2. Sarah Palin – After taking hits early on, Palin has stormed back with her wildly successful book, Going Rogue, and has seen a marginal increase in her numbers among republicans and independents.  But the success of her book is not the most important factor in her return to contention, but rather the damaging clemency revelations that could mortally wound Gov. Huckabee’s political career. With her chief rival for social conservatives badly damaged, Palin has become the top rival to Gov. Romney at this point.  Palin can now galvanize the social conservative movement behind her, making the former Alaska governor the overwhelming front-runner in the all important Iowa Caucuses. This  potential, as well as a natural base of support in South Carolina, could help the governor build an unstoppable momentum towards the nomination. For now, she lacks the organization and staff to compete with Romney, but retains far greater grassroots support.
  3. Tim Pawlenty – Minnesota’s governor has made some significant moves in his pursuit of the 2012 nomination.  He has created a PAC, Freedom First, and announced several major hires from previous campaigns.  He has also taken direct aim at both Barack Obama’s and Mitt Romney’s healthcare plan, likely to be a favorite line of attack as Pawlenty sets out to overtake 2012 frontrunner. He is quickly becoming an establishment alternative to Romney, and attracting early insider support.  His efforts have earned him some early praise from key players in 2012, namely an early indication of support by the influential New Hampshire Union Leader.
  4. John Thune – Senator Thune continues to quietly build for a 2012 run. While having no announced opponent yet for his 2010 reelection bid, Sen. Thune still has amassed an impressive war chest, retained a top-level campaign manager, started a PAC, and fundraised for candidates in Iowa.  Slowly but surely the media is beginning to catch on, with new profiles about the junior senator from South Dakota appearing on CNN, The New York Times and The Washington Post. Thune’s social conservative credentials could also allow him to join the chorus of candidates likely to benefit from Huckabee’s problems. Thune brings both the social conservative credentials needed to win over the early states like Iowa, as well as significant establishment support that is needed for overall success in the primaries.
  5. Newt Gingrich – The former Speaker may have lost some face with the conservative base in endorsing Dede Scozzafava in the NY-23 election, but he may have gained support from the crucial GOP establishment.  Despite the Speaker’s impressive resume and historic electoral successes, his bombastic past still leaves many in the establishment wary. But being a team player in NY-23 may get the establishment on board the Gingrich train, granting the former Speaker a chance to make history and complete a legendary comeback.  Nixon accomplished it, and Newt may be next.
  6. Haley Barbour – Governor Barbour is perhaps the greatest strategist in the party.  He showed off that talent earlier this month, helping to lead two GOP candidates to victory in Virginia and NJ, a great start for the head of the RGA.  With his sights set on major races all over the country in 2010, from California, Ohio, Pennsylvania, New York, Michigan, Florida, and Texas, Gov. Barbour could not only continue to help revive the party but could also collect enough chits along the way to make himself a strong contender in 2012.  With Speaker Gingrich’s mishap in NY-23, it could be Gov. Barbour who emerges as the 1994er to lead a new generation of Republicans back to power, and himself to the White House.
  7. Mike Huckabee – The former Arkansas governor has run into serious trouble with the revelation that he granted clemency to notorious cop-killer Maurice Clemmons.  The revelation has opened a Pandora’s Box of information on Governor Huckabee’s history with pardons and clemencies.  The sheer amount of clemencies and pardons is jarring, with the governor having granted more clemencies and pardons then several surrounding states’ governors combined.  The volume alone would lead you to believe that Clemmons will not be the last we hear of the people released or commuted by Governor Huckabee.  While Huckabee’s die-hard supporters will likely stick by their man allowing his poll numbers to hold steady, this will certainly come back to haunt him, as rivals hammer the former governor with his poor judgment in these cases.  A GOP establishment already wary of Huckabee now has the last reason they will ever need to abandon him completely, and will work to force him from the 2012 race. If Huckabee was reluctant to leave his TV show before this news broke, I imagine his Fox News deal will grow only more enticing as the primaries get closer.
  8. Rick Perry – The long serving Texas Governor has bounced back from poor early polls to take a solid lead in the GOP primary against Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison.  A successful primary followed by likely reelection will help raise Gov. Perry’s profile further in the national party.  He is already winning populist support for his anti-Washington screed, and won the endorsement of Gov. Palin.  But it’s his state’s strong economy that just might push the Texas Governor into contention. As blue states like California and New Jersey head into spiraling fiscal crisis, Texas stands as a strong example of successful conservative economics in the face of a President pushing tax-and-spend liberalism.  This factor, combined with a long, experienced career can put Perry in a very strong position. The uniting of the Tea Party base and his large, deep-pocketed Texas donors would give him a strong chance in the early states.
  9. Mitch Daniels – A very successful Rust Belt governor, Mitch Daniels proved himself by running what many call the best governor’s campaign of 2008 despite the dreadful climate for republicans. He is a graduate of Princeton and Georgetown, and served as Director of the OMB, while also sitting on the National Security Council and Homeland Security Council. Oh and he’s Arab-American(Syrian to be exact), proving once again that the GOP is far more inclusive then advertised.  Recently Daniels has stepped up not only his criticism of Obama’s policies, but of the GOP’s current standing too, sounding a lot like someone who wants to lead the party out of the wilderness. The Blade’s continued economic success during a period of recession continues to earn him praise, and despite his denials, inspires hope that the Governor will consider running for higher office in 2012.
  10. Rudy Giuliani – America’s Mayor is potentially gearing up for a run against Senator Kirsten Gillibrand in 2010, and if that race happens, a likely victorious Senator Giuliani could instantly be back among the front-runners in 2012.   Rudy remains a popular figure in polls both among Republicans and independents, and in an environment of a poor economy that is likely followed by high crime rates, the former mayor and potential senator could find himself in a strong position.  Lessons learned from 2008 could serve Rudy well in the early states, and with no McCain to compete with he could become the consensus leader among the GOP’s moderate and national security wing.  If another Presidential bid isn’t in the cards, a VP slot may not be far off, helping to balance the ticket with a more conservative nominee.

Honorable Mention: Jeb Bush, Eric Cantor, Mike Pence, Dick Cheney, Liz Cheney, Gary Johnson, Ron Paul, Rick Santorum, Bobby Jindal

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by @ 4:03 pm. Filed under 2012 Misc.
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274 Responses to “POWER RANKINGS: December”

  1. Huntsman McRINO Says:

    I’ll tell you who has fallen from this list: SENATOR KAY BAILEY HUTCHISON. She just voted with the Democrats to stop the Republican filibuster on health care. Add her bailout vote, and she is NEVER going to sniff this list.

  2. RomneyCare for All! Says:

    Huckabee 7th? Wishful thinking unless you have inside knowledge that he’s definitely NOT running.

    I think he is likely giving it a shot (if unemployment is still 10%+ while the economy is still suffering next year and beyond…) AND should be ranked 1st due to ALL the polling of the past year including AFTER the Washington State sadness. JMHO.

  3. WSU Says:

    “AND should be ranked 1st due to ALL the polling of the past year including AFTER the Washington State sadness.”

    we’ve had one poll since then, and I don’t even think that one offered actual insight into the race for the nomination…In any case, until we see evidence that either Palin or Huckabee have strong leads in both Iowa and South Carolina, Mitt probably belongs on top.

  4. Amy Says:

    I agree with this list.

  5. wateredseeds Says:

    I don’t know if Mitt or Mike belongs on top, but I do know that Mike Huckabee should be a LOT HIGHER THAN 7TH. Max, no offense man, but you obviously don’t know what the hell you’re talking about. I would’ve put Mike at probably 3rd….MAYBE 4th. But he is still polling VERY well, and is more popular as an individual than Romney and Pawlenty. Palin is probably more popular with republicans, but not that many want to see her run for president. I think this is Mitt’s to lose, but don’t count out Mike. If anything, he is once again the dark horse….except this time he’ll have money AND organization….oh and at least a 20% starting base. Honestly, i don’t think he runs…but until he says he won’t, or his numbers fall off the map…he’s gotta be in at LEAST the top 4.

  6. Cameron Says:

    I would like to see Romney/Thune, Romney/Jindal, or Romney/Pawlenty.

    I would not vote for Rick Perry or Mike Huckabee.

  7. OHIO JOE Says:

    If the health care bill passes, put Mr. Romney far down the list. It would be far more damaging to Mr. Romney than the resignation is to Mrs. Palin, Clemons is to Mr. Huckabee and boringness is to Mr. Pawlenty. In short it will be difficult for Mr. Romney to live down the anger if a health care bill passes.

  8. wateredseeds Says:

    Oh, and you’ve got Mitch Daniels at 9? Come on. The day Mitch announces he is running, he will be in like 3rd…especially if Huckabee sits it out. Mitch is the biggest threat to Pawlenty’s ability to catch on with the base. If Mitch runs, he’ll have a lot of endorsements…a lot of money, and will probably be considered the Rudy Guliani of 2012…except that he’s conservative. All that Mitch would need is to run a good campaign and he will catch on like fire. Pawlenty has to try a lot harder. Gingrich is probably going to have a very hard time as well. Let’s look at reality here, these power rankings are bogus.

  9. Hass Says:

    A number of the men Mike Huckabee freed subsequently raped and murdered women and police officers.

    I will NEVER vote for Huckabee.

    Huckabee granted over 1,000 pardons and commutations – far too many!

  10. 35 Says:

    These Power Rankings are acute and right on.

  11. declan Says:

    roflmfao @ Sarah Palin & Huckabee…..if the Republicans run either of them, we’d be lucky to see either one get one-third the electorate. They’re better off serving themselves books and tv shows anyway. Romney would be fine. Yawnplenty, er, Pawlenty is, um, well, to put it simply, Timothy Pawlenty is a major DORK who sounds like he hasn’t got any balls when he speaks? I’d love to see Petraeus run. Romney/Petraeus, Petraeus/Romney I’d take either way.

  12. Amy Says:

    The Mass. Healthcare reform is more expensive than it should be because of costs tacked on by the current governor, Deval Patrick, who is extremely liberal and irresponsible. It is plain wrong to blame Patrick’s bad decisions on anyone else.

  13. Chris L. Says:

    Of those on this list, my personal favorite is Mitch Daniels. His record speaks volumes and the GOP primary voters would be well advised to take philosophy AND actual accomplishment/track record into consideration. I still like Rudy for these same reasons, but I am more intrigued with the possibilities of Daniels at this point.

  14. McQueen Says:

    Max, this is a game call with Palin and Huck, but at this stage I think this is a pretty accurate representation of 2012.

    Of course, it could all change dramatically in a month or two, and certainly will over time.

  15. WSU Says:

    “If the health care bill passes, put Mr. Romney far down the list. It would be far more damaging to Mr. Romney than the resignation is to Mrs. Palin, Clemons is to Mr. Huckabee and boringness is to Mr. Pawlenty. In short it will be difficult for Mr. Romney to live down the anger if a health care bill passes.”

    The flaw there is in assuming that voters are going to try to tell massachusetts that its not allowed to get everyone insured.

    What Romney did in Massachusetts has no effect one way or the other on what kinds of policies he will present to the country in general. In contrast, Huckabee’s unrepenting support for his pardons and Palin’s lack of experience have a direct relation to their abilities to be President.

  16. ItalJoeFL Says:

    Max: Rudy LAST?? WHY? Please explain. Some of the others you mention are not even going to run. At least people are buxxing about Rudy.

  17. ItalJoeFL Says:

    typo: Buzzing, not buxxing

  18. Len S. Says:

    #12 Right On, but try telling that to all the Dorks out there, who don’t possess any reasoning ability to make that distinction.

  19. AKReport Says:

    It’s gunna be palin vs romney, Grassroots Vs Beltway.

    VP combos:

    Palin will pick someone very qualified, but less charismatic as herself. someone like Daivd Petraeus.

    Romney will pick someone with social conservative cred.

  20. ConservativeRepublican Says:

    I think WSu has it right about the health care. If played correctly, Mitt can point to the fact that if other governors would have done what he did in Mass., there would have been no perceived of a national health care initiative. He was very much against anything on the national scene, and intelligently dissed what was in this plan being passed now. I just don’t see how this hurts him much, if any.

  21. Len S. Says:

    With Thune, Pawlenty, Santorum, and Palin all likely to run the SoCon vote will be splintered and divided up enabling Romney to potentially squeak out a win there. So the more the marrier!

  22. lkv Says:

    Why would Romney be hurt if Obama’s Government health care passes? I would say the opposite would be the case…Even though costs have risen, premiums are still one of the cheapest in the Nation, it’s FREE MARKET so people go to their own Doctor, and polls show that 78% of the people are happy with it.

    Obama’s bill would muscle Insurance companies out of business by making it so expensive that people would not be able to afford it and force them onto the Government.. MassCare is all about private Insurance companies and personal responsibility.

    Besides, other than the basic stuff, how can anyone compare the two when nobody really knows what’s in the Obama bill? There are 2,500 pages….even those voting on it don’t know what’s in it.

  23. hamaca Says:

    To avoid an additional four years of Obama, Republicans need to put forward someone who can win the election and motivate those to vote who will make the difference. After winning the election, what we don’t need is a return to the spending habits of the Bush administration, nor do we need someone who’s just a good campaigner, but would be ineffective in the executive office.

  24. ConservativeRepublican Says:

    Premiums were cut rougly in half in Massachusetts for some individuals because of the deregulation. I don’t see how you can say thatwhen a state has 70% of its constituents liking the plan, and 79% of the doctors liking it, that it will be a bad thing for Mitt. All he has to do is point out that if other states had done what MAss. did, there would have been no incentive to try to pass a national health care plan like this catastrophe. AND, health care cost in Mass is only 1.2% of the budget, and has been rising the last few years at a rate that represents only 3/10ths of 1% per year. Wouldn’t other states love that situation?

  25. Tommy Boy Says:

    Is Romney a Big Loser in Senate Compromise? (UPDATED)
    http://spectator.org/blog/2009/12/15/is-romney-a-big-loser-in-senat

    Though we haven’t seen the current bill yet, if reports are accurate, it does not contain a public option or Medicare expansion. What remains is a Medicaid expansion, a mandate forcing individuals to purchase insurance or pay a tax, and sliding scale subsidies for individuals to purchase government-designed insurance policies on new government-run exchanges — and those elements formed the core of Romneycare.

    So now, if Obamacare passes, Romney will be left telling angry primary voters that the only real difference between the two plans is that he implemented his policies at the state level, while Obama did it through the federal government. Sure, it’s clearly worse if the federal government is implementing bad policies, but it’s hard to see how such an argument would pass muster with anybody but those who are already ardent Romney supporters. It’s sort of like saying, “As governor, I raised state income taxes, but the thought of raising federal income taxes — that’s an outrage!”….

    [A]s [Ben] Smith notes, “in the end, Romney does seem to have helped set the model for the national plan.”

  26. CraigS Says:

    You guys seem to think there is no improvement possible in American health care. Do you not think ANY health bill is necessary? Most Americans believe some kind of bill is needed and if Dean and the Dem liberals hate this Senate bill, it can’t be all bad and probably far more acceptable to the public. I suspect that the HOUSE won’t let it pass and we will be back to square one in January

  27. All for Huck! Says:

    Fellow Huckabee supporters, let’s leave this website. This is beyond repair. We don’t know anymore what principles are being used here. The democrats are right, “some” republicans are really freaky and out of their minds.

    Larger and larger each day, team Huckabee 2012! All the way!

  28. Tommy Boy Says:

    #27 Didn’t you say the same thing a month ago?

  29. mac Says:

    27
    I agree Mike is no lower than 3rd, but no need to leave.

    However, I agree with Max that if Mike is out, a Romney, Palin and Pawlenty race is looking awfully good for Palin at this point; and I say that as someone who is decidedly not a Palin guy.

  30. hamaca Says:

    27 Quitting because not enough people like Mike?

  31. ConservativeRepublican Says:

    In some of her softball interviews lately, I still didn’t have the foggiest idea what her answer had to do with the question, and some of them were completely incoherent. I think this will hurt her bad during future interviews and debates.

  32. hamaca Says:

    Would be interesting to see some of the talk shows invite groups of prospective candidates in to discuss the issues–less formal and structured than typical debates and no harm this early on.

  33. ConservativeRepublican Says:

    I Ben Smith piece it seems ironic to me that he didn’t mention among the differences that the Mass. plan had no public option. He also didn’t mention that it cost the state about 12% as much per capita as the national plan. Oh yeah, and that happens to be 1.2% of the state budget while this represents about 18% of our total GNP. It seems to me that these differences would be mentioned by any half way honest astute observer.

  34. ConservativeRepublican Says:

    I would love that…we could check to see which candidates wink at each other! ;)

  35. McQueen Says:

    RomneyCare=ObamaCare=RomneyFail. Another boost for Palin.

    No doubt Max will update his rankings next month to reflect Romney’s collapse.

  36. Max Twain Says:

    If 2008 taught us anything, it was that early polls mean almost nothing. High polling is the only thing Huckabee has going for him. He is no where close to Romney, Pawlenty, or Thune in terms of staff, advisers, PAC organization, or establishment support. He has had none of the organizational, fundraising, or electoral successes that Gingrich and Barbour have had, and he is no where close to either of them in terms of strategic skills. The little grassroots support that Huckabee does have is dwarfed by Palin, whose online footprint alone is astonishing. You add to the equation that Huckabee is universally despised by fiscal conservatives and the establishment, and on top of it all his judgment has been forever tarnished by his clemency problem and you have a situation where the fundamentals of the 2012 campaign line up almost completely against any possible Huckabee success.

    He is not an unknown figure anymore. People didn’t expect anything out of his low-rent campaign in 2008, but in 2012 he would have to meet expectations that he has shown he is unable to meet.
    Again, polls mean next to nothing at this point, and I’ve yet to hear a single good reason aside from polls to list Huckabee in a high position. This is why Rudy is also very low, as he is the embodiment of why poll numbers early on are useless in terms of judging potential. Both Huck and Rudy have very high hurdles to jump to get the nomination, far greater then the likes facing Romney, Pawlenty, Palin, and Thune at this point.
    And as the ultimate icing on the cake, Huckabee said himself that he is ‘less likely’ to run next time then in 2008, and this was before Clemmons gunned down 4 police officers.

  37. Max Twain Says:

    McQueen,

    This was the closet month so far for the top 2 spots. But since the bill hasn’t passed and several big hurdles remain, combined with a few more less-then-stellar Palin moments like the O’Reilly interview and her stupid visor/vacation thing, Romney held on to the top spot.

    Next month will be interesting. How she stays in the media spotlight as Romney gears up for his own book tour will be a key factor.

  38. ConservativeRepublican Says:

    It also seems that Huck would probably not be letting his weight go up so fast if he were planning to run. He has gained at least 60 pounds from last year.

  39. mac Says:

    36
    If 2008 taught us anything, it was not to underestimate Mike Huckabee.

  40. Max Twain Says:

    ItalJoeFL,

    Rudy isn’t last, notice the honorable mentions he beat out to stay in the top 10. He will need a lot more then buzz to make up for his dismal 2008 race, though.

  41. Max Twain Says:

    Being destroyed by John McCain in the GOP primary does not impress me, and leaves me to fully underestimate Mike Huckabee until he proves he can raise money at a respectable level. I know kids selling cookies for scouts who raise more money than Mike Huckabee, and that’s just not going to cut it, despite all the crying from Huck’s Army or McHale’s Navy or wherever.

  42. hamaca Says:

    Palin is the Republican’s rock star equivalent to Obama. Probably great at campaigning–likely to be overwhelmed by the sheer immensity of the actual job.

  43. ConservativeRepublican Says:

    #37 – If Palin is on the rise, how would you explain that she has lost over 50% on the betting sites since the 1st of November?

    Huckabee is back in single digits there again; Thune is now ahead of Huck at intrade.com.

  44. lkv Says:

    The American Spectator does not like Romney and never has…. it’s what they decide to leave out that forms their opinions.

    Ben Smith was talking about getting those insured who would normally be going to the emergency rooms for primary care, and those with pre-existing health problems… He made it sound like the majority were on Government aid.

  45. Tommy Boy Says:

    Max,

    But Romney has to be able to get to a high ranking on the NY Times best-seller list or the media won’t treat it as a big deal. If you look at the NY Times list, she’s been able to do it without bulk orders (there is no “dagger” symbol next to her book in any of the four weeks that she’s been #1 as there is with Huckabee and Beck).

    If Palin wasn’t able to break records, her book tour would not have been considered a seminal event in 2009 by political reporters. If Romney isn’t able to surpass Huckabee’s performance, the media (right-wing or “mainstream”) won’t give it coverage.

  46. mac Says:

    41
    Money wasn’t an issue for Gov. Romney, but McCain “destroyed” him, too.

  47. AKReport Says:

    43 thats because they are not sure if she will run or not.

  48. Tommy Boy Says:

    I’m also not indicating either that “bulk orders” are responsible for the success that Beck and Huckabee have had with their books but that’s the sword that the media and the left have wielded to explain the success of conservative/Republican authors with their book sales compared to liberals/Democrats.

  49. ConservativeRepublican Says:

    TB, doesn’t it help that they had deals selling her book for under $5.00?

  50. ConservativeRepublican Says:

    #47, not true AK. ANother one shows her at 60 that she will run.

  51. JC Says:

    I’m getting sick of status quo republicans saying “Palin will have an experiance problem”. How about actually lookng at her record as Governnor. I swear, some of you guys take what the MSM says as gospel. Palin is the best thing to happen to the GOP in a long time. No one has energized conservatives like she has, so cut her some slack.

    This list is good, however if obamacare passes, then Romney will drop considerably. In fact, he could even be out of contention. I just don’t see how he can convince conservatives to vote for him. Tim Pawlenty? Are the GOP trying to loose? If the GOP hasn’t learned by now, image is everything. Tim has got to be the most boring Republican in the country.

    My list would be:
    1) Sarah Palin
    2) Mitt Romney (for now)
    3) Mike Huckabee
    4) Newt Gingrich
    5) Rick Perry (I would place him higher but I doubt he will run)

  52. Tommy Boy Says:

    #49 Nobody in the MSM even considered using that narrative to explain her book sales

    Why not? Because it was not supported by the data and what they heard on the ground from bookstores, which did not have that discount. They would have gladly pushed that narrative if it was supported by any evidence but they had to accept the raw numbers to maintain some semblance of credibility.

    With books, I think you earn your coverage. The numbers are the numbers.

    Once again, the NY Times has failed to indicate in any of the four weeks that she’s been atop the best-seller list that bookstores have been reporting bulk-order purchases.

  53. AKReport Says:

    Romneycare is a disaster, and mitt has blood on his hands.

    the fact that palin left office early is no big deal if sean parnell gets reelected Gov of Alaska while she rasies money and gives speeches for him.

    now if sean parnell does not get reelected then it won’t be good.

    the whole reason palin left office was the exploit in the ethics laws where you have to pay out of pocket for legal fees from dissmised ethics complaints, and caused her to go into 500,000 in legal debt. (she only made 125,000 a year)

  54. Heath Says:

    I am convinced that one of Palin or Huck doesn’t run.

    I keep changing my mind as to who though!

  55. ConservativeRepublican Says:

    “How about actually lookng at her record as Governnor”

    When the going gets inevitably tough, would she quit the Presidency? If you think it was easier to be Governor of the little population state of Alaska you’re nuts.

  56. AKReport Says:

    most state have the taxpayers pay for the legal fees for ethics complaints.

  57. mac Says:

    36
    “This is why Rudy is also very low, as he is the embodiment of why poll numbers early on are useless in terms of judging potential”

    Rudy had the polls, the money, much of the establishment and didn’t win squat.

    Mike had no money, no support from the establishment and was non-existent in the polls, but won several states and finished tied for 2nd. Feel free to continue to underestimate him, but I think Mike is quite a bit more influential than your power rankings indicate.

  58. JC Says:

    “TB, doesn’t it help that they had deals selling her book for under $5.00?”

    CR, That was just stupid. Her books (at least at Walmart) cost $24. Some political magazines offer it for $5 to get people to subscribe because her book is so popular. What you said was childish and mirrors Kieth Olbermann type people. And its status qou republicans like you that have the GOP polling a mere 22% – under even an imaginary tea party.

  59. ConservativeRepublican Says:

    TB, we all saw in constantly advertised on tv that you could get her book for $4.97.

  60. ConservativeRepublican Says:

    JC, I’m proud to be a conservative Republican. I also like the tea party movement and have been to them myself. However, a third party candidate would put Barack Hussain Obama back in office.

  61. hamaca Says:

    57 Mike is influential among the Evangelical Christians. It apparently doesn’t take money, the establishment, and polls to get their vote, which he obviously did quite easily and won the states for the most part where they’re a higher percentage of voters. The question is whether he can significantly expand his influence beyond that core.

  62. Tommy Boy Says:

    #59 Well, then the “dagger” symbol would be showing up because the only way such a deal would make an impact is if conservative organizations purchased a plethora of books from bookstores and people were purchasing the book from the deal. The data strongly suggests that not many people went with the deal and purchased it from bookstores at whatever price they were selling at.

    You can continue to believe your narrative but nobody in the MSM pushed it. I’ll stick with the hard data and what is being reported by the NY Times.

  63. AKReport Says:

    (ConservativeRepublican)

    presidents don’t have to pay out of pocket for bogus complaints.

  64. McQueen Says:

    Max, I agree with your rankings and reasons, and what you wrote in comments #36 & #37.

  65. ConservativeRepublican Says:

    I have no way of knowing how many wanted to buy the book for $4.97, but it was continuously advertised at that price on Foxnews. So, I won’t argue the point any further TB.

  66. ConservativeRepublican Says:

    #63 — lol, oh ok, then I’m sure she’ll be just fine then! ;)

  67. mac Says:

    61
    Even if if that’s the case, if he hasn’t gained one more supporter since ’08, he’s much higher 7th…BTW, he’s gained a LOT of support since 2008.

  68. McQueen Says:

    #43 Already debunked. You are clutching at straws (as usual).

  69. JC Says:

    “When the going gets inevitably tough, would she quit the Presidency? If you think it was easier to be Governor of the little population state of Alaska you’re nuts”

    Jeeze, you sound like Obama – congrats. First of all, Alaska has tremendous resources and is vital to America in providing energy. Secondly, I believe resigning was a strategic move. In case you haven’t notice, their is a HUGE political grass roots movement happening in our country. And if you think it is not gaining momentume, I suggest you look at the NY-23 election and what the polls are showing. There is massive anger at the Federal Government and a revival of conservatism. Not to mention the incredibale fund raising power. If Palin can get the Tea Party momentum behind her, then she can easily cruise into the GOP nomination.

    And guess who is going to be a key note seaker at the First National Tea Party Convention in Febuary? Sarah Palin. Plus she will be campaigning for conservative candidate across the country next year. I suggest you look up Marco Rubio, Allen West, and Michelle Bachmann. They are the future of the GOP. No more Mccains, Mcconnels, or Scozzafavas.

  70. hamaca Says:

    I thought the original point in 37 was the extent to which Palin will continue to be covered in the media as much as she is now once Romney’s book tour gets ramped up, rather than who sells more books at what price and what effect that has on their candidacy.

  71. AKReport Says:

    palin left for 3 reasons.

    1.No way in hell she could start a run for potus while being stuck up in Alaska for 2 years.

    2.Money. 500,000 in Legal debt caused by bogus complaints because of an exploit in the ethics laws.

  72. McQueen Says:

    #50 Romney and Pawlenty would be at 90 plus on whether they are running!

    Pawlenty jumped substantially (doubled) once he unveiled his PAC and team – whether they are running or not is the key in early betting, and there is very little money obviously. And most (90%) would be betting for and against Palin. Noone cares about anyone else.

    Get real man, your comments are starting to sound desperate.

  73. Tommy Boy Says:

    #70 True, but I think Max is making an assumption that Romney’s book tour will get “ramped up.” By ramped up, I’m assuming he means getting media coverage beyond the standard media coverage that all politicans get when they release books. Pelosi, Boxer, etc. all get interviews and coverage but neither of their books were considered political events. Why not? Because their sales didn’t justify coverage in that vein.

    So my argument is that Romney has to sell well for the media to cover his book release as a political event.

  74. AKReport Says:

    3.she wants to be part of the movement against obama on a Natl level.

  75. AKReport Says:

    FOX NEWS wants a palin vs obama match because of ratings. I would not be suprised if FOX goes palinbot in 2012 given the rating gold mine.

  76. RomneyCare for All! Says:

    Rankings based on hard numbers (not bias):

    Polling says –

    1 Huckabee
    2T Palin
    2T Romney
    4 Pawlenty

    We await the next national poll in 2010… :)

  77. ConservativeRepublican Says:

    63 “Already debunked. You are clutching at straws (as usual).”

    Oh really, I didn’t notice that! Perhaps you mean it was argued, and you wanted to interpret it as debunked.

  78. JC Says:

    Another thing Palin has that Romney doesn’t – enthusiasm

  79. McQueen Says:

    # 77 You never responded to counter arguments (and your not doing so now either).

    So yes, debunked.

  80. McQueen Says:

    # 78 yes, of course. She is in a league of her own in terms of media attention and more importantly as a retail politician. That converts to enthusiasm on the campign trail.

  81. ConservativeRepublican Says:

    Ok, let me see. She has in fact lost 50% since that time, so nothing to argue there.

    I’ve already responded to the fact that it’s not that people don’t know whether or not she is running, because that number is at 60. If there is some reason that you can point to that would indicate she is LESS likely to run now, than she was before her book tour, then that could be under consideration. But, I don’t see you arguing that, and the better wouldn’t seem to agree with you if you did. So what further is there to argue on my part? I’ve just stated the facts as they are. So totally NOT DEBUNKED even a little bit.

  82. Tommy Boy Says:

    Max,

    I agree with Thune at #4 but I question whether getting favorable profiles from CNN, NY Times, and the Post is really something he’s going to be bragging about considering the antipathy to the three aforementioned entities.

  83. hamaca Says:

    73 I can’t imagine Romney’s book generating anywhere close to the publicity (or sales) of Palin’s–therefore, as per your definition, it won’t really be a political event. I still think the question is the extent to which Palin continues to be a daily media figure now that her book tour is over and what effect that has on her in the “standings”. Maybe no difference, but it’s a question.

  84. lkv Says:

    When Palin didn’t get much media buzz trying to interject herself in the Copenhagen debate by publicly advising Obama to stay home, she decided to pick a fight with Governor Arnold from CA., when she met her match with him, she took a magic marker to a McCain Campaign hat.

    If Palin’s going to be serious about 2012′, she’s gonna have to give some solid interviews (not on FOX news) and give good solid answers to remain viable, soon, all potential candidates will start getting media buzz, and unless Palin has a better handle on the issues, she will be left in their wake.

  85. McQueen Says:

    #77 Your arguments here are that palin isn’t doing as well as some “pretend”, because of Intrade and because her book was discounted. Are you serious in implying that?

    What about the polls? Not interesting to you?

    Republican Favs: Palin, Huck, ….. long long long long last Romney.

    Republican primaries: Huck, Palin/Romney close

    2012 elections against Obama: Huck, Palin/Romney close.

    Republican influence/leadership: Palin, Huck and Romney way behind.

    Please note, Romney is last or equal last on all the objective data.

  86. Martha Says:

    AK, Palin quit because it was the least bad option – in that sense, it was strategic. :-)

    But, you’re kidding yourself if you think it doesn’t matter. All the spin in the world can’t change the fact that she quit when the going got tough. The job of POTUS is a million times more difficult that governing po-dunk Alaska which she refused to do once it wasn’t a piece of cake.

    Add that to her continuing lack of seriousness and goof-ups, and she has some mighty difficult hurdles.

  87. Tommy Boy Says:

    Hamaca,

    Good question about Palin. My guess is that she’ll remain prominent but it’ll be through more traditional maeans than last year, especially if global warming is the primary issue that the Democrats and Obama focus on next year.

    Also, the fact that so many Republican primaries are getting attention will probably bring her a lot of attention considering where the media sees her role.

  88. hamaca Says:

    82. Given how conservative his record is, I wouldn’t think those three entities are writing positively about him because they like his political views (as they did McCain’s, relatively speaking). Maybe he’s just not polarizing from their perspective and that may not necessarily be a bad thing.

  89. Martha Says:

    I’ll be very happy to see Thune and Daniels run. Either one has more to offer than Pawlenty.

    The GOP needs to get beyond the vacant Palin/Huck type populism/one-of-us baloney.

  90. Huckabee/Clemmons Says:

    I agree with this list. Everything past the top 3 doesn’t stand a chance.

  91. Tommy Boy Says:

    “When Palin didn’t get much media buzz trying to interject herself in the Copenhagen debate by publicly advising Obama to stay home”

    She didn’t? Weren’t the leaders of the global warming movement forced to respond to her? Her op-ed was one of the most read op-eds of the year according to the Washington Post.

    In fact, I’d argue that the “Copenhagen” debate was just as helpful to her as anything from the book tour.

  92. Huckabee/Clemmons Says:

    “everything” should be everyone. They are still people even though they have no chance.

  93. Tommy Boy Says:

    Greg Sargent is my source for my assertion in the previous comment.

    Sarah Palin’s Copenhagen-Bashing Op-Ed One Of Most Read WaPo Opinion Pieces Of The Year
    http://theplumline.whorunsgov.com/climate-change/sarah-palins-copenhagen-op-ed-one-of-best-read-wapo-opinion-pieces-of-the-year/

  94. Martha Says:

    As far as ObamaCare hurting Romney – it’s not going to amount to a hill of beans. First – they are different, and second, I seem to recall that amnesty had everyone up in arms a few years back. It didn’t hurt McCain or Huck much – the two worst candidates on the issue.

    Romney’s not perfect, but when you measure weaknesses against strengths, RomneyCare isn’t going to make a very big dent.

    OJ, I can’t believe you compare Palin’s quitting, and Huck’s irresponsible clemencies with RomneyCare. What a joke.

  95. AKReport Says:

    Martha, you seem to not understand the fact that she did not make more then 125,000 are year. It has nothing to do with “quit when the going got tough” the fact is it’s simple math.

    presidents don’t pay out of pocket for bogus/dissmised ethics complaints.

  96. McQueen Says:

    81

    Absolutely debunked.

    What was she one month ago re running or not? If you don’t have that it is useless info.

    What are the levels of Huck, Pawlenty, Romney in terms of running? I have proven that Pawlenty increased after his PAC etc (see trends). Do have that data?

    you are speculating on the reason she is dropping on InTrade, implying in another thread she isn’t doing well? Proof? Polls?

    So if you can’t prove that she is doing less well to corroborate your insinuations, it PROBABLY means that InTrade doesn’t mean much at this stage, and more than likely is people betting on or against palin running, with little money on the books.

  97. RomneyCare for ALL Says:

    The more people talk about RomneyCare, the more they’ll LOVE it! :)

  98. ConservativeRepublican Says:

    Palin will sell more books because nearly everybody and their brother, sister, and grandma believe they would know what she is talking about. And with the help of her ghost writer, the sentences will make sense.

  99. RomneyCare for ALL Says:

    TARP, too!

  100. AKReport Says:

    Romneycare proves Romney to NOT a conservaive. thats why it hurts him. along with throwing the pro-lifers under the bus so he could win in MA.

  101. AKReport Says:

    be*

  102. McQueen Says:

    “OJ, I can’t believe you compare Palin’s quitting, and Huck’s irresponsible clemencies with RomneyCare. What a joke.”

    No joke, and Romneycare is by far the worst. The only reason Romney even registers on anybody’s radar is nostalgia. Plus one or two diehards here.

  103. Martha Says:

    95. She can’t use her defense fund? The ethic complaints ecuse was nothing more than convenient cover.

    The fact is that as governor, she was facing disaster, and she quit because it was the least damaging politically – if you can imagine that.

  104. RomneyCare for ALL Says:

    Watch Mitt climb up from the bottom of the polls… He cannot almost see Sarah and Mike up above him!

    Almost. ;)

  105. JC Says:

    When Palin didn’t get much media buzz trying to interject herself in the Copenhagen debate by publicly advising Obama to stay home, she decided to pick a fight with Governor Arnold from CA., when she met her match with him, she took a magic marker to a McCain Campaign hat.

    Are you insane? Arnold called her out. All she did was respond to his rediculous asserption. And I HIGHLY HIGHLY suggest you read what her op-ed on facebook. She SLAMED Arnold down hard. And you’re actually going to believe that she scribbled out Mccains name to send a message? Well then why wouldn’t she do that in her book? And why would she campaign for him? God wake up! You saound so damn ignorant.

  106. RomneyCare for ALL Says:

    Yes he can! Go Mitt!!!

  107. Martha Says:

    98 Conservative Republican,

    I bought her book. I tried to finish it, but it was incredible self-serving and boring, I couldn’t take it.

    Anyway, book sales mean nothing when it comes to political support.

  108. hamaca Says:

    There’s no question Palin will be very influential in terms of who the Republican nominee will be, including if it’s herself. I also think she’s getting a bad rap for resigning. I just don’t think she’s capable of being as effective of a President this country needs right now, regardless how many people like her.

  109. McQueen Says:

    most voters will be talking about Obamacare over the next year. Hot topic.

    Most republicans will be looking at Romneycare, and comparing. 2010 will not be a pretty year for Romney, most conservatives, many bloggers dislike/hate Romney, Romneycare will be front and centre.

  110. hamaca Says:

    100. This will likely be Romney’s biggest hurdle this time around. The thing is, there’s a case to be made that “RomneyCare” is more conservative than what MA had before it was implemented.

  111. Martha Says:

    Conservative Republican,

    Did you read it? In my opinion, it’s not worth the $5.00. :-)

  112. Max Twain Says:

    Mac,

    Huck also had no serious competitor for evangelical voters. Rudy was pro-choice, McCain had bashed Falwell and Robertson famously, Romney was formerly pro-choice and Mormon, and Thompson didn’t show up until September and then slept most of the time.

    Huckabee was not their champion, he was their candidate of last resort. Next time around there will be multiple social conservative candidates, and all of them have superior records on fiscal matters in the minds of economic conservatives then Huckabee. Palin, Thune, Pawlenty, Santorum, Perry are all have social conservative cred, something Huck didn’t have to face last time in any meaningful way.

  113. Max Twain Says:

    Tommy Boy,

    The point about Thune is that he is starting to get a lot of mainstream attention, which means more people will learn who he is. It’s not the news organization that matters so much as the exposure.

  114. Martha Says:

    Good post and comments, Max.

  115. RomneyCare = ObamaCare = Defeat Says:

    Sarah Palin / Tim Pawlenty in 2012 …

    Take Back America!

  116. lkv Says:

    #91

    Palin got some buzz, but most was short lived.. it didn’t have much punch to it that most her op-eds have.

  117. JC Says:

    “Palin will sell more books because nearly everybody and their brother, sister, and grandma believe they would know what she is talking about. And with the help of her ghost writer, the sentences will make sense”

    What is your problem? If you don’t think Palin is the best then fine, but why the hell do you have some deranged personnal vendetta against her? Man, there are plenty of “i hate plain” sites on the net – go over there and troll.

    Palin, like Michelle Bachmann and Jim Demint, are on the front lines actually doing something about Obama’s attrocious(sp?) policies. They are leading the charge. Out with the RINO’s. Bring bacck real conservatism.

  118. ReaganConservatism Says:

    112. “Huckabee was not their champion”

    So sure, are you? ;)

  119. AKReport Says:

    Martha, the legal defense fund would not be able to keep up with the legal fees from the expolit. her leaving office early had nothing to do with her ability to be GOV.

  120. McQueen Says:

    Romney supporters Martha and ConservativeRepublican engaging in an all out but trivial attack on Palin?

    Yet Romney is top of Max’s list!

    Why? They can see the signs as well as anyone, and as soon as Mitt drops, he will drop like a ton of bricks. The only reason he is up there now is because he has been hiding and nostalgia. I expect he will #5 on Max’s list in the next few months :).

  121. ConservativeRepublican Says:

    “No joke, and Romneycare is by far the worst. The only reason Romney even registers on anybody’s radar is nostalgia. Plus one or two diehards here.”

    I guess that would explain why he is the only one who has shown to tie Obama in head to head polling, TWICE! Oh wait…hmmm, maybe not.

  122. McQueen Says:

    112 “Thompson didn’t show up until September and then slept most of the time.”

    LOL. Unfortunately. But true.

  123. Tommy Boy Says:

    #121 C’mon man, that’s Rasmussen which nobody takes seriously besides those of us on the right (even though, I’ll indulge Rasmussen to make the point about global warming and planetary trends).

    The left has successfully smeared Rasmussen. He’ll never be cited again on any network other than Fox.

  124. ConservativeRepublican Says:

    #105- ARE YOU CALLING PALIN A liar. She swore up on down on tv yesterday that she WOULD campaign for McCain.

  125. ConservativeRepublican Says:

    And that she loved him of course! ;)

  126. McQueen Says:

    # 121 nostalgia. The great majority of voters are just picking the has been of the last primary. I’d wonder if anyone actually remembers Romney’s positions or words at all.

    Romney the idea is far better than the real thing :).

  127. hamaca Says:

    123. Doesn’t who smears Rasmussen–just matters how accurate his polling actually is.

  128. McQueen Says:

    125 Mccain is a better man than romney. But that is not saying much I guess, except that if palin isn’t running, I’m sure she will be campaigning hard against Romney. Her supporters will encourage that, given the nastiness we see here for example by Romney supporters. They are a reflection of Romney, unfortunately.

  129. JC Says:

    rasmussen was the most accurate poll in 2008. Who cares if the left smears them. Big deal, the left smears everybody. Thats the problem with the GOP. They let the dems attack attack attack and don’t fight back.

    If the left wants to ignore Rasmussen (the most accurate poll in 08 and in 04) then they will do it at their own parol. Again, I see no reason in not using a poll that has been proven to be accurate just because hateful leftists don’t want you to.

  130. ConservativeRepublican Says:

    “What is your problem? If you don’t think Palin is the best then fine, but why the hell do you have some deranged personnal vendetta against her? Man, there are plenty of “i hate plain” sites on the net – go over there and troll.”

    Yeah, I bet you would like that….let’s let people bash Romney like crazy, but nobody should say anything negative about Queen Palin. I’ll just come out and say what other people beat around the bushes on…I think she has a pretty low IQ, can’t take the heat, loves create battles, then cry about getting hit, and has a terrible time communicating what little she knows about many important issues. The only way Palin could manage the Presidency is if she had a avery strong VP, and turned the reins over to him/her. So, yes, I have a very big problem….I’ve been on this site for 35 months…..so if you don’t mind, I think I’ll stay, thank you, and I’ll tell it like it is with this woman that couldn’t get elected to the school board in my little town.

  131. Possum Says:

    Romney should be below Palin in this poll, maybe #4. I suspect Pawlenty will improve as Romney recedes. Republicans don’t like Romney, how anybody can think he will win is beyond me.

  132. Tommy Boy Says:

    Rasmussen actually showed Romney with the biggest deficit to Obama when a third-party challenger is included.

    Hamaca, you’re right but the left’s explanation for Rasmussen’s past accuracy is that he shifts his numbers at the very end to where the race actually is. That accusation was proven false by the 2008 election results but accuracy isn’t what the left is concerned about.

  133. ConservativeRepublican Says:

    “But that is not saying much I guess, except that if palin isn’t running, I’m sure she will be campaigning hard against Romney.”

    Did you not know she voted for Romney in the primary?????

  134. Huckabee/Clemmons Says:

    McQueen you are a joke. McCain showed us all he was not fit for the job when he threw in the towel. Not a better man my freind. Just was an angry man my friend. And if you want to talk about nasty, talk about the McCain using Huck as political pawn. That was a small man. Very small man.

  135. hamaca Says:

    128. nastiness? that’s what you call this banter? bit thin-skinned…

  136. JC Says:

    I haven’t seen much Romney hate here. I have seen people say that Romneycare and his flipflops on conservative principles will be his downfall. You just take things way to personal.

  137. Jonathan Says:

    I like the list Max, but I would put Gingrich further down than Barbour and Daniels. Mitch especially has been getting very good publicity over the last year. He keeps denying that he is going to run, but with enough persuasion, he could change his mind. As this thread and countless others have shown, the figures from the 08 campaign are far too divisive within the GOP to lead a united resurgent Republican Party. We need someone new, someone like Governor Daniels.

  138. ConservativeRepublican Says:

    It also shows that everybody gets creamed with a third party candidate…..is that what you want? I didn’t think so, so the heads up is what counts my friend.

  139. McQueen Says:

    130 Palin is the future. But she needs to improve how she deals with issues. I wouldn’t bet on it. Since you have blasted Palin, let me respond about Romney.

    He is untrustworty. He is boring. He is a RINO. He had his chance, and showed he is a nasty competitor. The electorate has changed since 2007, to his detriment. He has heaps of personal issues, not least his religion, his record of vindictiveness, Romneycare and he is a MISERABLE Flip-Flopper.

    No one is going to elect a used car salesman to the presidency, let alone as the republican nominee. repubicans have principles. Romney fails to measure up on almost every count.

  140. McQueen Says:

    133 Given Romney’s surrogates attacks on her from Oct last year, she will campaign against romney. And there are likely to be good alternative conservative candidates for her to choose from.

  141. ConservativeRepublican Says:

    The only differnce is that I didn’t have to lie in my opinions of her. I also showed no religious bigotry, even though it would be extremely easy to do so with her Third Wave beliefs!

  142. hamaca Says:

    137. Primaries are always divisive until there’s a winner. Hard to dismiss the 08 people with so much invested in them in so many ways. Nothing wrong with Daniels, however.

  143. Tommy Boy Says:

    Hamaca,

    Even if we take Rasmussen off the RCP list, Obama’s average is still 49.5/44.2 approval/disapproval. So taking Rasmussen off doesn’t make much of a difference to the overall numbers and many of the adults polls there are just comical(NY Times/CBS, Bloomberg, and AP).

  144. ConservativeRepublican Says:

    I’d like to see you back up your assertion of Romney’s surrogates attacking Palin….or are you calling us little commenters on here as his surrogates?

  145. Jonathan Says:

    #139:

    Palin needs to build a RECORD if she wants to try for the prize. 1 and 1/2 years as Governor of a state with a small population just isn’t going to do it.

    Oh, and leave Romney’s religion out of it. Sure go after what you see as flip-flops (justified or not) or his record as Governor, but don’t mess with the man’s religion. That is between him and his personal God and not for us to judge.

  146. narciso Says:

    At least two posters here, trade in discredited lies, one is more generally contemptous in general,
    and some are just opposed to her for no fixed reason. I think the substantive objections to Romney have been aired here, as well as Huckabee, it has little to do with either’s religion. Like I say I favor the policies first, then the candidate.

  147. Jamison Says:

    Just one suggestion, Max: include their previous rankings at the end of the description or something.

  148. hamaca Says:

    140. I must have missed the Romney surrogate attacks on Palin–not saying it didn’t happen, I just happened to miss it. My question is why would they do so if they actually did? Romney wasn’t running against her.

  149. ConservativeRepublican Says:

    TB, you’re a pretty smart guy, and understand polls, so therefore, by now, I’m sure you can see that favorables/unfavorables don’t mean a whole lot when it comes to Palin. Scores of them show her having high favorables amongst Republicans and COnservatives, but the same ones show they don’t want her as their nominee, so let’s be honest, ok?

  150. Jonathan Says:

    #142:

    It seems that we never really got over the divisiveness of the last primary. The Romney and Huckabee people are still going at it over everything from why Huck won Iowa to who really came in second. Now we just throw the Palinistas into the mix. It leaves the rest of us (McCain, Rudy and Thompson people from last time) scratching our heads.

  151. McQueen Says:

    # Not thin-skinned at all. I just find some people attacking everyone in the Rep party that is not their preferred candidate an embarrassment, eg, Martha and ConservativeRepublican.

    Last week it was Huck, this week Palin.

    If Pawlenty moves up next month, it will be him.

    Perhaps they should realize that their candidate isn’t flawless either. And being gratuitously negative about other people’s choices is just asking for the same back. :)

  152. ConservativeRepublican Says:

    McQueen, you’re such a hypocite…you attack Mitt all the time!

  153. Jonathan Says:

    #151:

    The Romney people want to win. Consequently, they are going to go after those who might prevent their man from winning. It isn’t vindictivness, it’s politics. That’s just the way the game is played.

  154. JC Says:

    “It leaves the rest of us (McCain, Rudy and Thompson people from last time) scratching our heads.”

    Enough with the Mccains and Rudys. They are hardly conservatives and will never win in a general election. The GOP is stuck in the past. Its time to bring in new blood.

  155. JC Says:

    For the people who attack other candidates – Don’t you realize you only drive away people from your candidate? It doesn’t help your cause in any way.

  156. hamaca Says:

    151. Let them attack, it’s good for her if she becomes the nominee. She just get the same and much more in the general. Same with the others.

  157. ReaganConservatism Says:

    Palin/Huckabee could beat Obama/Biden in ’12 quite easily. :)

  158. McQueen Says:

    152 Not a hypocrite at all. It is simply a projection on your part :).

    I quite like romney (i like most Republican leaders). I agreed with Max that he could be #1 at the present.

    But I don’t believe Romney can win the primary, and since the people that support him, attack Palin, Huck, Pawlent etc, just feel if that is the way it will be, then so be it.

    For example, I think Clemmons hurt Huck. Fact (from my perspective). I don’t carp on about it.

    Romneycare hurts Romney. But the reponse by his supporters is to attack Palin?

  159. hamaca Says:

    154. I think many voters are going through a case of buyer’s remorse with Obama. It wouldn’t surprise me if any of the well-known candidates from 08 were able to beat him were the election to take place next month.

  160. JC Says:

    “For example, I think Clemmons hurt Huck. Fact (from my perspective). I don’t carp on about it.

    Romneycare hurts Romney. But the reponse by his supporters is to attack Palin?”

    Finally! Some common sense.

  161. ConservativeRepublican Says:

    I’ve responded hundreds of comments about Mass. care. It could be better, but for what could be accomplished in a liberal state, it’s pretty darned good. It’s much less socialistic than what they had in place before.

  162. Jonathan Says:

    #161:

    The problem is that you Romney supporters and Romney himself have to keep explaining it. In politics, if you are explaining, you’re losing. If it can’t be explained in a 15 second soundbite, then it can cause headaches for Romney down the road. I’m not saying that’s fair or accurate, but it is what it is.

  163. hamaca Says:

    The problem with Romney is that he’s the opposite of teflon. So much of what is flung at him sticks, regardless whether it’s valid or not. Flip-flopping, Romneycare, etc. I think he’d be very effective as President, but his biggest challenge is getting out in front of the stuff that ends up branding and framing him.

  164. McQueen Says:

    141 “The only differnce is that I didn’t have to lie in my opinions of her. I also showed no religious bigotry, even though it would be extremely easy to do so with her Third Wave beliefs!”

    Just shows out of touch you are with Republican voters. Her views etc are pretty standard for many. Now Mitt’s, mmm …

  165. Mike & Marco Says:

    I could support Sarah easily especially if she chose Huck or Rubio as her running mate.

    But, Mitt has Romney-care dragging heavy around his neck which makes it nearly impossible for him to move up in the polls. (In fact, he’s likely to drop now with Obama-care now passing.)

    Mitt should drop out quickly before he’s forever tarnished by health care and hope for a cabinet position, maybe
    Commerce would fit him.

  166. narciso Says:

    Well Murphy, Madden,Feehery, Forti, Bernard, just a few, mostly assigned to the communications section of the RNC and NRCC, are the usual suspects who have diminished her efforts over time, they are usually the ones who counsel acceptance of the Obama agenda, opposition to the tea parties, that’s just off the top of my head.

  167. JC Says:

    Palin/Robio2012 or Palin/Petraeus2012

    Absolute winners.

  168. ConservativeRepublican Says:

    165 You wish!!!

    The fact is this. THe only way Romney got beat last time is by team tactics….other candidates teaming against him, and it worked. No other candidate could have come as close as he did under those same circumstances.

    It will be the same way in 2012….I’ll go on record right now and say if Mitt Romney doesn’t win the nomination, it will be because of team tactics by other candidates banning together to beat him. He is far superior to any of them, and they know they can’t beat him without teaming up.

  169. ConservativeRepublican Says:

    #165 BULLLLLLLLLCRAPPPPPPP!!!!! Where are you getting that garbage?

  170. Mike & Marco Says:

    168. You’ve got your excuse for Mitt losing all ready to go. Nice. ;)

    I like people who are prepared.

  171. Mike & Marco Says:

    168. 169. Are you two the same? LOL

  172. Mike & Marco Says:

    If you don’t like Sec. of Commerce for Romney, he’ll just have to run for something in Utah. I think he’d win there. :)

  173. Jonathan Says:

    #168:

    As of now, Romney is the front-runner. The other candidates like to gang-up on front-runners to increase their own viability. If Romney is as good as you say, he and his campaign will be ready for such tactics. If they don’t anticipate that or are prepared for it, then they don’t deserve to win anyways. Republican primaries get rough. If you can’t take it, then don’t play.

  174. hamaca Says:

    170, 172. Bit smug, aren’t we, about candidates who likely aren’t even running?

  175. ConservativeRepublican Says:

    Jonathan….it’s really hard when they play it from day one. Nobody else in the field could handle it…that’s for sure. I’m not sure Mitt will survive it or not. Time will tell.

  176. Huckapedia Says:

    Interesting comment in the author’s own analysis, in that ONLY Huckabee has die hard supporters. The Republican primaries are won by die hard supporters who come out in droves. Huckabee nearly captured the 2008 Republican nomination even being a new name in the field because of the die hard Huckabee Fans and that’s with only a mere $12 million in cash, the ultimate underdog in the race!

    Four years later winning 2012 Poll after Poll after Poll, TV host of the # 1 rated TV show (based on Nielsen TV rankings) and his fastest growing radio broadcast show will create an astronomical amount of die hard Huckabee Fans compared to 2008. Huckabee Fans will not grow weary, they have their eye set on the finish line, no hill is too high for a Huckabee Fan to climb! Huckabee Fans are totally Energized, Mike Huckabee larger than life Persona is electrifying is die hard Fans.

    Rocky was not a quiter, he is a winner and so is superior communicator Mike Huckabee and his die hard Fans. When the competition tries to stomp on Huckabee, it only strengthens him and fans. Huckabee Fans are in this race to stay, the great Haile Gebrelassie never gave up, he grew up in a small grass hut in Africa with no shoes to become the greatest runner in the World shattering the world record in 1,500 meters, 2 miles, 3,000 meters, 5,000 meters, 10,000 meters, 15,000 meters, 20,000 meters, Half Marathon, 25,000 meters, One hour run, Marathon and 30,000 meters!!!

    You can count on it, the die hard Huckabee Fans will not yield, we will continue to expand into every county of every state in America before 2012 arrives. We will set world records like the great Rocky and world distance runner Haile Gebrelassie. The come from behind underdog Mike Huckabee is capturing the dream of all Americans! We will not relent, we will give it our best, we will crank it up another notch again, our eye is set on the finish line and we will finish in a all our sprint to give it every single little drop of energy we have! Impossible is not a word in our dictionary!

  177. Jonathan Says:

    #175:

    Well, now his people know what to expect. If they are smart, they’ll try and reach out to another campaign and try to get them to team up against someone else. They could use the spectre of a Palin or Huckabee nomination as a way of scaring the 2nd tier into going after them instead of Romney. If you can’t beat it, co-opt it.

  178. hamaca Says:

    176. Impressive. Good luck with that.

  179. ConservativeRepublican Says:

    True, Jonathan…maybe they could hire you! ;)

  180. Mike & Marco Says:

    174. I assume that Huck (if that’s all right with you, my friend) IS running and that Rubio WILL win his race in Florida…

    AND then they will join up ]
    in 2012!!!!! :)

  181. Jonathan Says:

    #179:

    In this Democrat economy, throwing Obama out of office will be about the only job left come 2012.

  182. ConservativeRepublican Says:

    Sometimes, I honestly think that some on here could do a better job of directing campaigns, or at least helping.

  183. hamaca Says:

    180. If Huck changes his mind and decides to run, let him. He has even better name recognition now, has had great practice discussing the issues on his show, in all would be a better candidate than in 08. I think Palin should get her own show. It’d be good for to develop her off-the-cuff communication skills on complex issues.

  184. Jonathan Says:

    #182:

    No doubt about it. You, me and three people picked at random from the phone book could have run the McCain Campaign in the general election better than the jokers who did it.

  185. ConservativeRepublican Says:

    Some of you may remember that on Friday before the Florida vote on Tuesday, I advocated that Mitt announce that he would be using Fred Thompson as his VP. I’m still betting anything that would have won Georgia, Missouri, and Tennessee, possibly Florida. MHO, if he had done that, he would have been the nominee.

  186. Jonathan Says:

    #185:

    Announcing a VP candidate before you have the nomination sounds like desperation. Reagan tried it in 76 with Richard Schweiker of Pennsylvania and all it did in the end was tick off conservatives. Reagan might even have lost the Mississippi delegation because of the issue. If Romney had done the same, it would have been painted as a desperate gamble by a desperate man.

    The way Romney could have won Super Tuesday was to focus more on the South than on California. Romney spent a lot of time and money out in California that if it had been spent in MO or GA or TN, might have have made the difference in those primaries. Of course, underestimating Huckabee and his appeal throughout the South didn’t help either.

  187. Mike & Marco Says:

    185. Pre-naming Thompson as VP would have required waking Fred up.

    Good luck with that. ;)

  188. mac Says:

    118. Indeed.

  189. ConservativeRepublican Says:

    Well Jonathan, I still think it would have worked….doesn’t mean I’m right and you’re wrong though.

  190. InsideWashington Says:

    Huckabee at 7?? LoL…. I think that shows quite a it about your bias here buddy. Huckabee is the closest thing to a front runner we have!!

  191. Chris Says:

    I would have gone with someone else, like maybe Rudy for Mitt to announce with.

  192. Chris Says:

    But that said, I feel that Mitt is our great hope. He’s got the experience, the knowledge and the intelligence to be POTUS. IMO, if he’s good enough to be on a cabnet, he’s better to be POTUS!

    I for one, am looking forward to his book coming out, and attending the SaltPalace this spring. I like it that he has actual solutions for today’s problems, and not just soundbites. I love it that he’s too busy giving real interviews and advise to be tweeting or facebooking. I see him giving interviews from Fox to CNN. Flawless, not gaffes, no embarrasements and no sharpies requred. We know who he is, what he is and why he is. And with any luck, he’ll be the next President of the United States.

  193. Thunder Says:

    # InsideWashington Says:

    Huckabee at 7?? LoL…. I think that shows quite a it about your bias here buddy. Huckabee is the closest thing to a front runner we have!!

    Have you been living in a Cave, the Clemens thing all but ends his hope for the nomination, but go ahead and live in denial.

  194. Max Twain Says:

    InsideWashington,

    Let’s take it one by one:

    Romney is far better organized then Huckabee with no McCain to his left in 2012, this will make him the strong favorite in the large, delegate rich states like CA and NY that Huckabee will struggle in.
    Palin has ten times the grassroots support, and 100 times the charisma. If she runs Huckabee probably doesn’t even bother.
    Pawlenty and Thune already have top notch staff and fund-raising in place, already able to bring in more money then Huckabee. Unlike Huck, they have evangelical support AND establishment support, something Huckabee will never get.
    Gingrich and Barbour are easily two of the best all-time GOP strategic minds, and each will easily use the Clemens clemency in ways that will destroy Huckabee. I wouldn’t want to match Huckabee’s questionable judgment against a man with talents like Barbour.

    I know Huckabee fans haven’t yet grasped just how bad the clemency thing will be for him, and they like to hang on to meaningless polls (how did Giuliani poll 3-years out?) and TV show ratings, but the reality is when staff are quitting in disgust and every high profile strategist thinks your political career is over, then it likely is.

  195. Max Twain Says:

    Jonathan,

    The reason Daniels is so far down is due to the fact that he has been Petraeus-like in his denials. He seems dead set on not running, and I think the nastiness of politics combined with some of his personal baggage may be why he stays out. His wife left him, married someone else, got divorced, came back, and they remarried. Not the worst thing in the world, but clearly something he doesn’t want blasted out on cable news 24 hours a day. I think this is what’s keeping him from considering a run, but I do hope he changes his mind.

  196. Heath Says:

    Mitt has nothing in common with Fred and is superior in every way.

    Sorry IG but Mitt knows better not to ever select Fred as his VP.

    John McCain would be more likely (and not a bad pick).

  197. CalState Says:

    #176 TV host of the # 1 rated TV show (based on Nielsen TV rankings)

    He even beats CSI? Holy Crap!!!

  198. Mike & Marco Says:

    194. Keep spinning, Max.

    You’re gonna be in for a HUGE disappointment regarding Huck each and every month as his numbers gtow stronger.

    But don’t worry!!!

    I guess you can use the TWO favorite lines that Mike’s TWO kinds of critics alway use every month:

    Beats me, never saw it comin’? (The Blind)

    and

    I can’t explain it? (The Dumb)

  199. Heath Says:

    What about Romney/McCarthy??

    Groom Kevin for 2020 when he’ll be a ripe 54.

  200. lkv Says:

    McQueen and JC:

    This is a political site that debates potential candidates platform and how different issues and problems might affect the them……You two take any kind of criticism toward Palin as a personal vindetta against her, and go right for the throats of supporters and candidates who isn’t Palin…you guys sound pretty young and extremely immature…. You two need to grow up and realize Palin has her faults too. just Say Palin isn’t perfect and she’s not a god 10 times and you’ll be on the road to recovery.

  201. Mike & Marco Says:

    Join Governor Huckabee – Rally Against Ben Nelson
    Oppose Ben Nelson’s Support of Health Care Bill

    Governor Mike Huckabee will headline a rally on Sunday, December 20 in Omaha to oppose the Senate health care bill. Governor Huckabee will also oppose the decision of Senator Ben Nelson of Nebraska to support the Senate bill in exchange for $300 million dollars in Medicaid funds.

    The rally will be held at the Omaha Music Hall, 17th and Capitol. Doors open at 2 PM. Rally starts at 3 PM.

    Other participants will include Congressman Terry, Auditor Foley, Senators McCoy, Fulton, Krist, Price and Lautenbaugh.

  202. Heath Says:

    T/Bore realy doesn’t want to pick this fight with Mitt.

    T/Bore was all for “universial health care” before he failed and it became unpopular.

    St. Paul Pioneer Press (MN) – November 15, 2006 – A1 Main

    PAWLENTY ISSUES CHALLENGE ON HEALTH CARE GOVERNOR CALLS FOR UNIVERSAL COVERAGE, QUESTIONS CURRENT SYSTEM’S EFFECTIVENESS
    Gov. Tim Pawlenty outlined his health care priorities for the next four years Tuesday in a speech that surprised many health care officials and questioned the effectiveness of health insurance companies. A week after a narrow re-election, Pawlenty said Minnesota should try to achieve universal health coverage, even though the state’s 7 percent rate of uninsured people is among the nation’s lowest.

    Byline: Conrad deFiebre; Staff Writer

    In a sweeping policy departure that aligns with a top agenda item of the newly elected DFL legislative majorities, Gov. Tim Pawlenty called Tuesday for extending health care access to up to 90,000 uninsured children as a step toward coverage for all Minnesotans.

    “We all, I think, can chart a path toward universal coverage,” he said in a luncheon speech to a health reform conference in Minneapolis.

    Katherine Kersten; Staff Writer

    If you think Gov. Tim Pawlenty has a conservative bone left in his body, read the news reports about his statements Tuesday at a Minneapolis health care conference.

    Pawlenty announced that he would use the machinery of government – and a “surplus” of taxpayer money – to “start moving toward universal health coverage.” How? First, by “covering the state’s 70,000 to 90,000 uninsured children.” He proposes either to expand MinnesotaCare, the state’s publicly subsidized health coverage program, or create a brand new state program.

  203. AH Says:

    Romney 2012!

  204. McQueen Says:

    To 200.

    lkv, interesting attempt to improve the tone of the discussion here.

    “This is a political site that debates potential candidates platform and how different issues and problems might affect the them”

    but …

    “When Palin didn’t get much media buzz trying to interject herself in the Copenhagen debate by publicly advising Obama to stay home, she decided to pick a fight with Governor Arnold from CA., when she met her match with him, she took a magic marker to a McCain Campaign hat. ”

    I believe that was a comment by you.

    I’m not offended by that, but sheesh, do you live in an attic, listening to a Romney recording reciting his 10 point plan for jobs recovery, or something? Given the asinine comments and logic highlighted below,
    I seriously doubt if you are the right person to preach about political debates, nor maturity. Comprende?

    “… didn’t get much media buzz … in the Copenhagen debate”

    “… she decided to pick a fight with Governor Arnold”

    “… when she met her match with him, she took a magic marker to a McCain Campaign hat.”

  205. JC Says:

    IKV, perhaps you should look in the mirror. I only take it personal when you ATTACK her personally – such as saying her book sales are bogus or trying to insult her intelligents all because you want your guy to win. (BTW, I garuntee you he will not get even 10% of the scial conservative vote).

  206. David Shedlock Says:

    Huckabee is “universally despised by fiscal conservatives” (???)

    No, I am a fiscal conservative who supports him as the more fiscally conservative of the two (he and Romney).

  207. CraigS Says:

    All this crap about Palin’s hat is laughable. She is so obvious. With all her book receipts, do you not think she can afford another hat ? She obviously marked up a hat , sat on the beach, and waited for the media to ask her why she marked up the hat . She hungers for media coverage and publicity and is smart enough to know how to get it, if it doesn’t show up on its own.
    Look for more Palinesque moments in the months to come. Any GOP ticket would look like Laurel and Hardy……if she could find a suitable laughingstock foil for her absent intellect.

  208. CraigS Says:

    176 Huckapaedia,
    Mike needs to stay away from the table. He is actually getting ” larger than life” once again.

  209. JC Says:

    CraigS, Yeah, your right. Visorgate will be her downfall

    /sarc

  210. Thunder Says:

    # David Shedlock Says:
    December 20th, 2009 at 8:00 am

    Huckabee is “universally despised by fiscal conservatives” (???)

    No, I am a fiscal conservative who supports him as the more fiscally conservative of the two (he and Romney).

    Do you have to be so obviously a homer for Huckabee. To call Huckabee a fiscal conservative doesn’t pass the laugh test. Especially when he is on Tape as saying any tax increase was okay for him. That is not a fiscal conservative position.

    As far as being universally despised, no one is universally despised, but Huckabee is despised by a good many 15%-45% of the Republican party without a doubt. He is the most despised Republican in the top tier.

  211. mac Says:

    210
    “He is the most despised Republican in the top tier.”

    He has the most avid haters in the GOP, but I think it’s much closer to 15%. He’s better liked than Gov. Romney in the GOP and THE MOST liked living Republican by the general public.

  212. mac Says:

    Max,
    If anything, Gov Romney is hurt more by Thune and Pawlenty than Huckabee would be. Gov. Romney and Mayor Giuliani had the organization, $$$, establishment last time but Mike was very competitive with Romney and destroyed (your word) Giuliani.

    Also, if evangelicals were specifically polled to choose between Gov. Huckabee and Gov. Palin for favorite candidate for POTUS, I’m fairly certain that Mike would easily win. Sarah might be more popular than Mike, but IMO Mike would easily win if asked who they’d favor for POTUS.

    IMO Mike’s record on clemencies is a big problem for the GOP nomination, but would not be a factor against President Obama.

  213. mac Says:

    Also Max, regarding those “meaningless” polls Aron, Kristopher, etc., seem to think rather highly of polls as they relate to other issues, but the polls that include Gov. Huckabee mean nothing?

    The difference between the polls involving Rudy in 2007 and Mike in 2009 are that Mike has proven that he can actually win in multiple states.

  214. Thunder Says:

    # mac Says:
    THE MOST liked living Republican by the general public.

    Nonsense.

  215. Thunder Says:

    # mac Says:
    December 20th, 2009 at 9:59 am

    Also Max, regarding those “meaningless” polls Aron, Kristopher, etc., seem to think rather highly of polls as they relate to other issues, but the polls that include Gov. Huckabee mean nothing?

    The difference between the polls involving Rudy in 2007 and Mike in 2009 are that Mike has proven that he can actually win in multiple states.

    He also proved he could not more than the mid 30% in any state, no matter where. And in some states like California, he barely registered (11%) in a three man race and Florida with only 13%. New Jersey he could only get 8%, New York 10%, New Hampshire 11%, Arizona 9%, Michigan 16%

    These are not the kinda of numbers that would lend anyone to believe that Huckabee could win the nomination.

  216. tj Says:

    Your list is not even worth reading when I saw Rudy at #10. He barely finished in the top #10 in Iowa last run. Why would any serious person think he has any shot at winning anything outside of New York?

  217. bob Says:

    Can anybody who was a Giuliani supporter in 2008 tell me if they believe Rudy was done in more by his primary strategy of holding off to Florida, his personal life, or his ideological positions?

    Giuliani’s position as a frontrunner is often touted now as a reason to dismiss the current polls but was his status based more on the weakness on the roster of candidates, McCain’s decline in the polls because of his support for Amnesty or not one candidate with a high profile among conservatives making his or her presence known.

    I guess I’m asking, what made Rudy look so attractive before primary voters soured on him? Were the polls perhaps not reflecting the real sentiments of the primary voters?

  218. mac Says:

    214
    Nonsense…to Thunder. Polls indicate otherwise.

  219. mac Says:

    215
    Thunder,
    I guess you’d agree then that Gov Romney should be scratched off the list because he had the money and organization and didn’t do much better than Gov. Huckabee?

  220. marK Says:

    bob.217,

    Well, I can tell you my interpretation of what happened to Rudy in 2008.

    Rudy led the polls for so long primarily because of name-recognition. Other than John McCain who had come in second in 2000, no other potential 2008 candidate came anywhere close to him in national presence. And Rudy had done a superb job as mayor, including his superb performance in the 9/11 crisis.

    However, as time went on, two things happened. One, his opponents became better known. Some of his former default supporters found other candidates they liked better. Two, Rudy ran very much like Fred did, rather halfheartedly. He just never really seemed to want it that badly. This allowed others such as McCain and Romney (and Huckabee to a certain extent) who worked their tails off to catch up and surpass him.

    And that is what happened.

  221. narciso Says:

    Really Huckabee and Romney were better, than Rudy. He did have some baggage for supporting Kerik for DHS chief, (could he really have been worse then Chertoff) but he was subject to a rather brutal campaign by the likes of Wayne Barrett, one of his life long foes at the Voice, which had been on a crusade against him, since before he was mayor, to diminish or tarnish his record, and lot of this was disseminated through the Daily News and the AP, over the last months of 2007.

  222. ConservativeRepublican Says:

    Heath, I wasn’t talking about 2012. I was talking about 2008. McCain wasn’t exactly available you know, since he was the one he was trying to beat. Fred’s followers were pretty faithful, and they would have gone to Romney if Fred had advocated and they knew he would be VP.

  223. ConservativeRepublican Says:

    Bob, on your 217 post, let me say something. It’s a myth that Giuliani was intentionally putting all his marbles in the Florida. From Iowa, NH, Michigan, and SC, he ran hard, intending to win until the polls proved he couldn’t come close, then he would pull up stakes. He spent a huge amount of money in all those early states up until the time of pull out in each one. I remember in NH, when he campaigned hard and put on countless ads, he went down in the polls fast.

    I can’t explain exactly why, but he just didn’t sell himself well with the voters. I think several things hurt him, some with one voters, and other things with other voters.

  224. Thunder Says:

    # mac Says:
    December 20th, 2009 at 11:04 am

    215
    Thunder,
    I guess you’d agree then that Gov Romney should be scratched off the list because he had the money and organization and didn’t do much better than Gov. Huckabee?

    Does reality ever sink in. In no state did Huckabee do much better than Romney (except South Carolina), and state after state, Romney out did Huckabee. In fact, until Florida, Romney had more delegates than anyone else, and a significant edge over Huckabee. It was only after Romney dropped out, that Huckabee gained more delegates than Romney, and that is partly because of Michigan Delegates were released.

    As far as Organization goes, Evanilicals supplied that to Huckabee for free (which they may have broken the law to do it).

  225. Thunder Says:

    # marK Says:
    Well, I can tell you my interpretation of what happened to Rudy in 2008.

    Rudy led the polls for so long primarily because of name-recognition. Other than John McCain who had come in second in 2000, no other potential 2008 candidate came anywhere close to him in national presence. And Rudy had done a superb job as mayor, including his superb performance in the 9/11 crisis.

    However, as time went on, two things happened. One, his opponents became better known. Some of his former default supporters found other candidates they liked better. Two, Rudy ran very much like Fred did, rather halfheartedly. He just never really seemed to want it that badly. This allowed others such as McCain and Romney (and Huckabee to a certain extent) who worked their tails off to catch up and surpass him.

    And that is what happened.

    Your post proves there is intelligent life out there :o)

  226. Thunder Says:

    # ConservativeRepublican Says:
    I can’t explain exactly why, but he just didn’t sell himself well with the voters. I think several things hurt him, some with one voters, and other things with other voters.

    Rudy had too much bagage. From being pro-choice, to the problems with his wife. He is a good law and order candidate, and also National Defense. Okay when it came to fiscal policy but he completely lost it when it came to the Social Conservative Vote. He also ran into the problem that in each area of conservatism, there was some one better.

    Huckabee: Social Conservative (Evangelicals)
    McCain: National Defense
    Romney: Fiscal Conservative, Social Conservative (except with many Evangelicals)

    Where in this list was there room for Rudy to be the #1 pick. I for one would only support Rudy if I didn’t have any other choice because he was pro-choice (would have chosen him over Huckabee). But given Fred was out there, he was way deep on the list of preferred candidates.

  227. ItalJoeFL Says:

    What I want in 2012; Giuliani – Pence.

    What will happen: Romney – Pawlenty.

  228. ItalJoeFL Says:

    #217, Bob.

    I am a New yorker and still lived there while Rudy was mayor. I worked on both of his campaigns. I can honestly, absolutely answer your question as to what did him in, in 2008. The fact that he is a pro-choice republican. Thats too bad for republicans because in 2012 the democrat’s abortion rights army will be out in full force. If the conservatives would stop making abortion such a huge issue in the campaign, maybe we will have better luck next time. Roe v. Wade WAS NOT RUDY’S FAULT!! And he is not God, he can’t do everything (overturn it)

  229. Chris Says:

    105
    And why wouldent she simple take a few bucks from her megga millions and BUY a new visor? That would have made more sense. But noooo. she wanted the photo op, then left in a huff when her ‘staged’ event did not go as planned.

    Personall, I would have bought a new visor for 10-12 bucks, instead of the Sharpie for 3 bucks.

  230. mac Says:

    226
    “Does reality ever sink in.”

    Not Thunder’s version of reality. Despite no money and little name recognition in 2008 Mike was very competitive with Gov. Romney. Now Mike has name recognition and he’s often ahead of Gov Romney in 2009 polling…and always ahead of him in terms of likeability.

    I have no problem with Mike being listed as 3rd in a ‘power ranking’ but 7th is ridiculous.

  231. hamaca Says:

    230. If Mike had indicated more of an inclination to actually run, I’m sure he’d be much higher up on the list.

  232. Fredrick Says:

    Romney-Whitman 2012!!!

  233. hamaca Says:

    Will be interesting whether the nominee, whoever it is, chooses someone with years of government experience or whether any of them would reach out and pick someone with experience solely from the business world.

  234. ConservativeRepublican Says:

    No, Whitman is pro-choice….I want no part of her on the ticket and Mitt wouldn’t either.

    I think things like Rudy’s cross dress episodes and living with gays for several months after his divorce didn’t help either. His dad, cousin, and uncles involved in the mafia was probably not a factor because Rudy himself had excellent credentials on cleaning up crime.

  235. McQueen Says:

    230 mac

    Huck will do better than Romney if he runs. If palin is out, he’ll likely win.

    As this article states, Romney is already on the decline. As soon as he quits hiding, and people have a face to blame for Obamacare, he’ll sink quickly.

    “His [Romney] support has decreased significantly in the past year.”

    http://www.examiner.com/examiner/x-22564-Des-Moines-Conservative-Examiner~y2009m12d20-Top-ten-GOP-presidential-hopefuls-for-2012-ANALYSIS

  236. RomneyCareObamaCare Says:

    235. Nice link. :)

    “Ranked 3rd (after Palin and Huck):

    Mitt Romney

    Strengths: Financial knowledge. A Harvard MBA and longtime venture capitalist, Romney is the most qualified candidate to turn around a struggling economy. He saved the 2002 Winter Olympics from financial disaster. Already has a base of support and contacts from his 2008 campaign.

    Weaknesses: ObamaCare. Romney signed a similar, state-run health insurance program into law when he was governor of Massachusetts. The federal plan is unpopular with the majority of Americans, especially Republicans. Romney’s Massachusetts plan included $50 co-pays for abortion. He used to support both abortion and gay marriage. Portrays himself as socially conservative now, but many consider him a flip-flopper. His support has decreased significantly in the past year.”

  237. mac Says:

    235
    McQueen,
    Thanks for the link. I consider that a more realistic power ranking.

  238. Aron Goldman Says:

    More Speakers Added to 2010 Bakersfield Business Conference Line-Up
    http://www.bakersfieldnow.com/news/local/79762447.html

    Bakersfield Business Conference organizers announced today that four additional speakers will join the October 9, 2010 speaker lineup: Newt Gingrich, Jane Seymour, Tony Plana, and Joe Clark.

    Next year’s conference will feature 24 speakers in a format that will allow attendees to choose between some of the best platform speakers in America based their interests and preferences.

    Conference organizers previously announced several speakers confirmed for the 2010 conference that includes 2008 Republican vice-presidential candidate Sarah Palin, former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, Vice President Dick Cheney and former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani.

  239. Aron Goldman Says:

    PolitiFact’s Lie of the Year: ‘Death panels’
    http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/article/2009/dec/18/politifact-lie-year-death-panels/

    Palin’s paradox
    by Armstrong Williams
    http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2009/dec/21/palins-paradox-time-now-for-some-depth//print/

  240. James Says:

    I think Mitch Daniels would be a very good VP pick. I don’t know if he enough of the ‘wow’ factor to take on Obama, but he is solid on the issues, especially when it comes to cutting spending.

    Of those listed, I favor John Thune. He has had strong stands against EFCA, Gun restrictions, Sotomayor, endless TARP spending, and the Amnesty bill.

    I do however, dislike his support for Campaign finance legislation, Pork spending, and huge Farm bills.

    I would suggest to anyone who says “candidate x is unsupportable” to remember who we are up against.

  241. Dave Says:

    Romney is in by far the best shape to win the nomination—at this point in time. We will have to wait until 2011 to see whether that is still the case then. Timing, as they say, is everything.

    BTW, As much as I would like to see Huckabee 7th (or lower), he isn’t. He’s either 2nd or 3rd.

  242. narciso Says:

    Yes the folks who fact checked the Obama SNL check, just the kind of reliable guide

  243. ConservativeRepublican Says:

    If you Huck people who come on here were ever half as confident in in Huckabee’s chances for the nomination as you claim to be, you could make s huge amount of money at any of the on line betting venues. I have just checked several of them, and you can get a miniumum of 10 to 1 odds on all of them. I’m not a betting man, but if I were, I would love to bet on Romney with his 4.1 to 1 on intrade. Go for it Huck folks. Just think, put up 10K, and in 2.5 years, you will get a whopping 100K+. What a deal!!

  244. Marybel Says:

    Some of these have had their chances and weren’t successful. Why try to run them again?

  245. gadfly Says:

    The killing resulting from his clemency acts sinks populist Huckabee in my estimation and Tim Pawlenty’s continued support of the psuedo-science of global warming tells me that he is neither conservative enough or smart enough to be POTUS.

  246. ConservativeRepublican Says:

    Plus TPAW fought hard for universal health care in Minnesota, so he will be proven a hypocrite for trying to hurt Romney on this issue.

  247. RomneyCareObamaCare Says:

    243. Yeah 4:1 seems right for
    Mitt since he’s DEFINITELY running.

    Not good odds for Romney. 25% chance of winning the nomination, never is. ;)

  248. hamaca Says:

    247. 25% is actually the highest of all the Republican candidates as assessed by that site.

  249. McQueen Says:

    # 247 Yes, odds are bad, Mitt is probably betting on himself. It fits his character :). $1000 bucks would swing the odds wildly, the volume on Mitt is miniscule.

  250. mac Says:

    Here’s a video of #7’s speech in Omaha today. 2,500 people with little advance notice and Christmas right around the corner, not bad. BTW, I don’t think he’s #7 in Nebraska.

    http://www.omaha.com/article/20091220/NEWS01/712209849

  251. hamaca Says:

    250. If Mike stops saying he probably won’t run, he’d certainly move up in the ratings. For now, the fact he’s indicated he won’t , plus the potential impact of the clemency issue, just doesn’t rate him that high as a someone likely to win the nomination given what we know now. If he doesn’t run, he will certainly have an impact on the outcome–not a positive for Romney.

  252. Mike & Marco Says:

    250. Go Huck Go!!! :)

  253. AH Says:

    No Huck No!

  254. Huckabee/Clemmons Says:

    253. No kidding.

  255. RomneyCare for ALL! Says:

    Go away Huck!

  256. Mitt Romney/Ben Nelson Says:

    We want Mitt! :)

  257. wildbill Says:

    Nittwitt Romney can suck my Richard. If that commie biatch gets the nomination the Republican Party deserves to sink into irrelevance.

  258. Huckabee/Clemmons Says:

    257. Hahaha… Stay classy bud.

  259. Max Twain Says:

    tj and bob,

    Because with no John McCain in the race it can be argued that Giuliani could pick up a large number of his supporters. Moderates and independents hold tremendous sway in a number of large delegate rich states. With no McCain, Rudy could be the only candidate to Romney’s left. While the rest on the right battle for Iowa and South Carolina, Rudy could aim at New Hampshire and the large states. The expectations for him would be the opposite of last time, where 2nd, 3rd, and 4th place finishes would actually look good by comparison and keep him viable until the large states go to vote. By no means would he be a favorite, I did list him 10th after all.

    But with most of the candidates in a free-for-all in Iowa, Rudy could make a stand in NH and change the dynamic of the race. Also, if for some reason Palin doesn not run, he could win her endorsement, and that could alter the race as well. He and Palin have become friends, and she was one of the people she spoke to about her resignation prior to announcing it.

    I realize a number of these scenarios are long shots, but again he is listed 10th, but he also still has potential due to fund-raising ability and potential establishment support. The lack of a McCain in the race is the biggest reason why I think he would have a shot. A senate run and victory would also earn him a great deal of favor with the establishment.

  260. Max Twain Says:

    mac,

    I don’t disregard all polls. Most of the polls on this site have to do with 2010 elections which are far closer and in some states already under way.

    2012 horse race polls mean very little. Favorable/Unfavorable are good polls for 2012, though.

    The reason the clemency is so devastating has nothing to do where his poll numbers are or how many people come to a rally. It’s about how bad it will be when it is put into an ad and looped on tv 24/7, or when Limbaugh takes aim at him over this issue. Many candidates who were well liked have been taken down by far less. There are some things in politics that are visceral, natural, and effective. Huck’s record on clemencies is so damaging I considered removing him entirely, but determined that other candidates like Palin could decide against running clearing the way for him to mount some kind of comeback.

    2,300 people showing up in Nebraska is nice, really it’s very noble. McCain won the Nebraska primary with 118,000 votes.

    Huck has his niche, just like Jerry Falwell and Rick Warren. But he is out of his depth against organizations like Romney’s, star power like Palin’s, and strategic brilliance like Barbour’s now that these clemencies have come to tarnish him. Without the clemencies, he would likely be third, and I’ve not hesitated no move Huck up to as high as 2nd on this list. But these clemencies are a career-ender.

  261. Max Twain Says:

    I will give you this though, mac. If Huck doesn’t run, and I believe he won’t, he will be the most important endorsement in the race. With Huckabee out of the fray, his clemencies won’t be heard about in relentless ads on TV and radio, helping him to retain his appeal to Iowa evangelicals. Therefore, whomever he endorses in Iowa will likely be the front-runner, and since it almost certainly won’t be Romney, that Iowa winner will likely move on into a face-off with the New Hampshire winner on Super Tuesday and beyond.

    Only a McCain endorsement in New Hampshire could have a similar impact, but as party elder and previous nominee I imagine he will stay out of it, leaving Huck as a potential king-maker.

  262. Max Twain Says:

    As to why things didn’t work for Rudy in 2008, a number of reasons factored in.

    1) His effort in the early states. He didn’t bother to compete in Iowa or SC, and gave a lack-luster effort in NH. He should have worked hard in those states even if he didn’t win them, placing would have still made him viable once the larger, friendlier states came into play.

    2) Pro-Choice. No nominee has been pro-choice since Gerald Ford was barely nominated over Ronald Reagan in 1976. This was the major issue social conservatives could not get past, and was compounded by a number of lesser, but damaging issues like gay rights, Kerik, and his divorces.

    3) McCain’s resurgence. The fact that McCain didn’t drop out after his campaign collapsed was a big blow to Rudy. McCain when on a torrid townhall tour of New Hampshire, and mounted his comeback. This cut into the one early state that Rudy had a chance to compete in, and eventually it launched McCain rather then Rudy to the nomination.

    4) Clinton’s decline. One of Rudy’s key strengths was the perception that he was tough enough to go toe-to-toe with the Clinton machine. Even some conservatives who disliked Rudy over policy differences thought it was essential to nominate him to stop Hillary. But as Obama overtook Clinton, the Obama/Giuliani match-up was not perceived as effective as Clinton/Giuliani. If Clinton had won Iowa and swept to the nomination, I think Rudy would’ve maintained his strength through his perceived electability.

  263. ogrepete Says:

    Mitt Romney has a new op-ed out regarding health care reform.

    http://blogs.usatoday.com/oped/2009/07/mr-president-whats-the-rush.html

  264. lkv Says:

    JC

    #205

    Never insulted Palin’s intellegence, or said anything about her book….try again with the truth next time..

  265. Huckabee/Rubio Says:

    260. You underestimate RomnneyCare’s affect on Mitt in the race. But you’re not alone on this site. ;)

  266. lkv Says:

    I don’t think Romney will have any problem with MassCare..

    When the final passing of ObamaCare happens, Romney will hold his plan up as something that the States could have used as a template, especially since most people think that some health reform is needed.

  267. Heath Says:

    Yes! I was waiting for Romney to man up to his plan!

    Romney in 2012!

  268. Heath Says:

    Barbour has his own pardon problems.

  269. hamaca Says:

    263. Thanks for posting this.

  270. Donna Says:

    Watching and listening to the debates is why I decided to vote for Huckabee in 2008. I still like Mike; but am willing to wait until some of the debates to totally make my decision. But, another candidate will really have to work hard to make me change my mind.

  271. RomneyCareObamaCare Says:

    Recent polls have found:

    Only 32% say ObamaCare is a “good idea” – NBC, 12/16

    36% support, 61% oppose ObamaCare – CNN, 12/10

  272. RomneyCareObamaCare Says:

    …AND if they polled Republican voters only, well, you know what those numbers would look like!

  273. Chris Says:

    270. That’s just one of many reasons I can’t suport huckabee. He’s not well thought out when he speaks. He has no new ideas at all. And he is slimy and slick.

  274. Some “Light” Holiday Reading | Article VI Blog | John Schroeder Says:

    [...] Meaningless at this juncture, but fun to consider. [...]

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