Further review of the Democratic losses last week along with recent polls showing Republicans beating Democrats in the generic congressional ballot demonstrates the impact of only ten months of Democratic governance on Independents. In Virginia, New Jersey, and now nationally, we’re seeing the exact same dynamic: Republicans are supporting Republicans, Democrats are voting Democrat, and Independents, after having installed a Democratic government just one year ago, are moving heavily towards the GOP. Note that this coalition — let’s call it the McDonnell/Christie Coalition — is quite distinct from the last Republican majoritarian coalition that brought the GOP to power in 2004. In ’04, the GOP won because voters on either side of the political fifty yard line ran to their respective end zones, and the voters on the Right were just a tad more fired up than voters on the Left. This year, the American middle is still in the middle, but centrists and Independents are voting Republican by a lopsided margin, just as they voted Democrat by a significant margin in 2008.
The movement towards Republicans on the part of swing voters shouldn’t be surprising, as pretty much the entire Democratic agenda thus far has amounted to a (largely failed) attempt to enact a huge burden on the very middle class, middle of the road, Middle American voters who brought Democrats to power in the first place. By ignoring the unintended consequences of their policies and by misreading their mandate, Obama and congressional Democrats are on the verge of losing the republic that Americans handed them just one year ago.
Last year, I wrote extensively about the plight of the average middle class American, and of the manner in which regular Americans are beginning to feel that the American Dream is being extinguished. Once upon a time, working hard and playing by the rules was all that was necessary to achieve a comfortable and rewarding life in a nation which values opportunity and meritocracy, and which promises equality under the law for all, regardless of national origin, religion, and so forth. But as the cost of housing, education, and health care rose, and as wages, benefits, and job growth shrank, and as the growth of government at home and its actions abroad sent the American people a bill which could only be paid for via fiscal collapse or massive future tax increases, Americans began to wonder whether the nation’s best days were behind her and whether the American Dream was, in fact, dead. Democrats ran as champions of the middle class and unsurprisingly won massive majorities.
But less than year into their reign, the heroes of the middle class have been revealed as enemies of the middle class, as Democrats have spent 2009 pursuing policies that essentially constitute what is probably the largest middle class tax increase in American history. They are, in no particular order:
The Stimulus: The president and congressional Democrats promised that adding a trillion dollars to the national debt was necessary to stimulate the economy and prevent a depression. Instead, unemployment has continued to increase, and most of the stimulus has yet to even be enacted, as the package was largely a Trojan Horse filled with funding for every Democratic domestic program under the sun. Because the national debt will eventually have to be paid off, this means that the president and Congress gave American taxpayers a trillion dollar bill during the worst recession since the Great Depression, one that will ultimately lead to a massive tax increase on the middle class, and one that did nothing to actually restore the economy and create jobs.
The Bailouts: The Obama Administration and congressional Democrats seemed to have no qualms about using the tax dollars of the American people to bail out the nation’s robber barons who had reached the precipice due to practices such as imprudent and predatory lending and slapping interest rates on lines of credit that would once have been considered usury. The average American, who most certainly did not find himself bailed out of his mortgage or his car payments or his student loans, could do nothing but sit back and watch as his tax dollars were used to bail out the very folks who were simultaneously raising his interest rates on all of those things. Instead of letting poor business decisions be punished by the marketplace, which would disincentivize similar practices in the future, the Obama Administration ensured that no lessons were learned, no robber baron or archaic motor company was allowed to fail, and no American taxpayer would be able to avoid the bill.
Cap and Trade: The Administration itself has privately concluded that this legislation would essentially amount to a 15 percent tax increase. What could go wrong?
Health Care: While small-bore reforms are definitely needed to lower the cost of health care and help more Americans get insured, the health care reforms proposed by Democrats all have one thing in common, and that’s an increased financial burden on the middle class. Even without the creation of a new middle class entitlement in the public option, guaranteed issue, which is a feature of all the Democratic plans, has increased health insurance premiums in every state in which it’s been implemented. This means that the average middle class American will see his or her health insurance premiums go up if ObamaCare becomes law. Under ObamaCare, subsidies are phased out well before they impact most middle class Americans. The poor will have government assistance to help them pay their premiums, and the jet set can simply take more money out of their trust funds. But the middle class will bear the brunt of ObamaCare, being handed higher premiums with few new benefits in return.
Afghanistan: With the nation nearing fiscal collapse, the last thing that Americans want to do is continue to pour blood and treasure into a tribal nation stuck in the 10th Century due to the notion that it’s somehow our moral imperative to do so, or that the sword can be used to modernize such a society. Neither is true. If it’s our job to save the world, then why not all of Sub-Saharan Africa? Why are we not attempting to send troops to every banana republic in Latin America? We don’t because we can’t. In the real world, resources are finite. Americans realize that it’s time to conserve ours, which is why large majorities of Americans now oppose the war in Afghanistan and oppose sending more troops to Afghanistan. Every penny that is added to the national debt because of Afghanistan will come directly out of the pockets of the middle class in the form of some future tax increase.
In sum, the Obama Administration and the Democratic Congress are running up a massive bill and sending it to the same middle class that elected Democrats to save it from its economic woes. Apparently, Democrats thought that the middle class was electing them out of some masochistic desire to be further squeezed in order to solve all of the world’s problems, from global warming to the societal travails of distant lands. Democrats are about to find out what Republicans found out last year: at the ballot box, there’s nothing more powerful than an army of disgruntled white collar professionals who make $50,000 a year. In the Nixon era, these folks were called Cloth Coat Republicans. Now they’re Cloth Coat Independents. And they’re the most potent political force in America today.
November 13th, 2009 at 12:23 am
While I completely disagree with most of this post, I would like to highlight the Afghanistan part, which I do agree with.
In addition to me agreeing with it, I also think it would be a smart stance for Republicans to take, especially if Obama decides to send more troops. I think a more non-interventionist foreign policy could greatly help the Republican party, particularly with independents and the middle class. The average white collar American does not want his hard-earned dollars going to fund a unwinnable war in the middle of nowhere.
It never made any sense to me how so many Republicans preach the importance of small government and keeping government out of things, yet they hold massive military spending, and constant and costly wars as vital.
November 13th, 2009 at 12:42 am
Republicans know some wars are unnecessary, but no Republican wants to retreat from a war that will tarnish America by so doing. A war that is just, right, and winnable. Lest we forget the Taliban sponsored the attacks on American soil in 9/11. I’d be supportive of Obama allowing McChrystal time to implement his strategy, a year perhaps to get things going, to then asses just how viable it will be for us to remain in and what it would take from there to eliminate the Taliban. As Petraeus in Iraq showed a well-played strategy can in the long run do the unthinkable.
Remember, Dems grilled Bush for never listening to his generals. We wouldn’t want Obama to make the same mistake
November 13th, 2009 at 1:27 am
Those claims are simply not substantiated by current polling data.
Gallup: Americans Split on Afghanistan Troop Increase vs. Decrease
November 12, 2009
http://www.gallup.com/poll/124238/Americans-Split-Afghanistan-Troop-Increase-Decrease.aspx?version=print
Quinnipiac Ohio Political Survey
November 12, 2009
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1322.xml?ReleaseID=1396
NBC/Wall Street Journal National Political Survey
October 27, 2009
http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/MSNBC/Sections/NEWS/091027_NBCPoll.pdf
Fox News/Opinion Dynamics National Survey on Afghanistan
October 17, 2009
http://www.foxnews.com/projects/pdf/101609_poll.pdf
November 13th, 2009 at 1:47 am
Digging Deeper on Independents
http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2009/11/digging-deeper-on-independents.html
November 13th, 2009 at 1:55 am
Another great post from Dave.
Easily the best front-pager we have on here.
Keep up the good work!
November 13th, 2009 at 1:57 am
The Taliban are not my cup of tea but they aren’t Al Queida.
November 13th, 2009 at 2:05 am
They did sponsor them, though. They clearly sympathize with wanting to destroy the “Great Satan”, else they wouldn’t harbor an organization devoted to attacking America. They’d have been far better off never affiliating with them.
But that’s not the case. They were complicit in attacking our country, and Obama needs to man up and fight that “good war” he talked about all last year and actually do something for once.
November 13th, 2009 at 2:47 am
The last voters to get on board with Obama were blue-collar workers and old people. They’re now the first to get off board.
November 13th, 2009 at 2:54 am
Has anyone heard from Iraq lately? Me neither, and this was the ‘lost’ war according to Harry Reid. Sorry ‘Bama, Afghanistan was your most favoritest war, you loved it so much that you were willing to let Iraqis suffer under Saddam so we can fight the proper terrorists in Afghanistan. Oops! There are no terrorists anymore because you said so. What a waste of lives to have this dithering mother f*cker in charge of our army. Tsk tsk.
November 13th, 2009 at 6:54 am
Maybe the Iraqi badies are winding down the clock until we leave and then all hell will break loose? Hope not.
November 13th, 2009 at 9:08 am
Dave,
Great post again.
Of course, Democrats are still selling the delusion that they can give everyone everything they want and make only those earning over 250k pay for everything.
Of course, they know themselves that it is a lie, which is why they are looking for stealth taxes like Cap and Trade (global warming is but the useful fiction to justify), insurance mandates, and VAT.
November 13th, 2009 at 9:28 am
Dave, thanks for speaking out against our continued presence in Afghanistan. We need more principled republicans who will do so.
November 13th, 2009 at 9:32 am
Is Obama finding religion, or is this more talk from the Prince of Platitudes?
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1109/29471.html
My guess is, more talk. He was saying earlier this year the “era of fiscal irresponsibility is over” while he tripled the deficit. He said that the government is basically broke while he pushed for the Entitlement to End All Entitlements. This is the guy who thought demanding 100 million in cuts from the budget (with much chest thumping and bravado) would prove his deficit hawk bona fides.
November 13th, 2009 at 9:39 am
I think voters’ may finally be waking up to the perils of a $12 trillion (and accelerating) national debt. We face the prospect now that if interest rates rise just to late 80s and early 90s levels (which is probably modest considering inflationary pressure, the weakening dollar and the drying up of demand for Treasuries) could absolutely sink our government, forcing truly confiscatory taxation, massive and immediate cuts in Soc. Sec., Medicare, and defense, just to service the INTEREST.
In 3 years, the debt will be around 16 trillion. If the average coupon on a treasury at that point (remember Treasuries are loaded towards the short end, so they turn over a lot) is just 7%, we would be paying over $1.1 TRILLION in interest alone. This year, we are collecting somewhere around $2 trillion or less in taxes.
I’m telling you guys, this debt could make the current recession look like but a minor tremor before the real earthquake.
November 13th, 2009 at 12:37 pm
Give Me Goldman Over Gandhi
by Jonathan Hoenig
http://www.smartmoney.com/investing/economy/give-me-goldman-over-ghandi/
November 13th, 2009 at 12:56 pm
Meet John Thune
By David Brooks
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/11/13/opinion/13brooks.html?_r=1&pagewanted=print
November 13th, 2009 at 2:20 pm
Look at what is hidden in the over 1000 page Health-Care Bill that the majority of American people did not want!
Buried deep within the over 1,000 pages of the massive US Health Care Bill (PDF) in a “non-discussed” section titled: Subtitle C-11 Sec. 2521— National Medical Device Registry, and which states its purpose as:
“The Secretary shall establish a national medical device registry (in this subsection referred to as the ‘registry’) to facilitate analysis of postmarket safety and outcomes data on each device that—‘‘(A) is or has been used in or on a patient; and ‘‘(B) is a class III device; or ‘‘(ii) a class II device that is implantable.”
In “real world speak”, according to this report, this new law, when fully implemented, provides the framework for making the United States the first Nation in the World to require each and every one of its citizens to have implanted in them a radio-frequency identification (RFID) microchip for the purpose of controlling who is, or isn’t, allowed medical care in their country.
http://waysandmeans.house…
This is very dangerous: Everyone needs to sit down and see this video that shows just how corrupt our American and English Government and Governments around the world have become, if only in order to prepare for the damage they are doing to our country’s monetary and resource systems, that will affect you and all of us and our lifestyles! Give yourself the chance to be prepared by looking ahead! Here is the link:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VebOTc-7shU
Call and write, visit your senator have him vote against and kill the Obama Health-Care Bill! Save your own life!
November 13th, 2009 at 2:23 pm
Cheers on the post, Dave. I agree with the majority of those items. As a card-carrying member of the middle class myself, I’ve definitely heard the sound of stimulus and bailout money zooming by me only to go to those who seem less-deserving. I, along with many others, have felt punished for being personally fiscally responsible.
November 13th, 2009 at 3:02 pm
#17 I’m betting you’re a supporter of Rep/Dr Ron Paul, aren’t you?
November 13th, 2009 at 6:24 pm
I’v heard he may support rapists and hate gays but assuming that’s not true why don’t we talk about Thune more around here?