August 15, 2009

Poll Watch: Democracy Corps/Greenberg Quinlan Rosner (D) Netroots Nation 2009 Straw Poll

Democracy Corps/Greenberg Quinlan Rosner (D) Netroots Nation 2009 Straw Poll

Of the main contenders for the 2012 Republican nomination for President, please indicate who, in your opinion, would be the easiest to beat.

  • Sarah Palin 36%
  • Rick Santorum 20%
  • Bobby Jindal 12%
  • Ron Paul 7%
  • Rudy Giuliani 5%
  • Jeb Bush 4%
  • Jon Kyl 3%
  • Mike Huckabee 2%
  • Tim Pawlenty 1%
  • Mitt Romney 1%

Please indicate if you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president?

  • Strongly approve 51%
  • Somewhat approve 44%
  • Somewhat disapprove 3%
  • Strongly disapprove 2%

Favorable / Unfavorable (Net)

  • Barack Obama 85% / 2% (+83%)
  • Jon Stewart 82% / 2% (+80%)
  • Stephen Colbert 76% / 2% (+74%)
  • Joe Sestak 46% / 8% (+38%)
  • Arlen Specter 15% / 44% (-29%)
  • Sarah Palin 1% / 88% (-87%)
  • Rush Limbaugh 0% / 88% (-88%)

Please read the pairs of statements below and for each indicate if the FIRST statement or the SECOND statement comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right.

  • I will support a health care reform bill even without a public option as long as it expands affordable coverage to all Americans and prevents insurance companies from denying coverage. 26%
  • A public option is the only way to truly hold insurance companies accountable and bring down costs and I will not support a health care reform bill without it. 53%
  • I support the House compromise on the energy bill because it’s an important first step to capping carbon emissions and averting a climate crisis. 46%
  • I oppose the House compromise on the energy bill because it creates too many loopholes for fossil fuel interests and doesn’t do enough to address the climate crisis. 27%
  • I’d support legislation that makes it easier for workers to organize, even without so-called “card check” provisions, because the other measures take important steps in protecting workers. 45%
  • I can’t support legislation to make it easier for workers to organize without the so-called “card check” provisions that will ensure workers can organize without intimidation or harassment. 28%
  • The best way to move a progressive agenda forward is for progressives to generally support Obama on his key initiatives, taking on his enemies and coordinating messages against Republicans and the corporate special interests standing in the way of reform. 41%
  • The best way to move a progressive agenda forward is for progressives to criticize President Obama when necessary and take on the Democrats, as well as Republicans and the corporate special interests, when they also stand in the way of reform. 35%

Please indicate which TWO you think progressive activists should be focusing their attention and efforts on the most.

  • Passing comprehensive health care reform 60%
  • Passing green energy policies that address environmental concerns 22%
  • Working to enact progressive economic policies 19%
  • Working to elect progressive candidates in the 2010 elections 17%
  • Working to enact President Obama’s agenda generally 16%
  • Countering right-wing attacks on Obama and his agenda 13%
  • Increasing accessibility to quality education for all 9%
  • Passing legislation to make it easier for workers to organize 8%
  • Working to end our military involvement in Iraq and Afghanistan 8%
  • Working to expand rights to those in the LGBT community 6%
  • Passing comprehensive immigration reform 5%

Which ONE of the below do you, personally, spend the most time advancing currently?

  • Passing comprehensive health care reform 23%
  • Working to elect progressive candidates in the 2010 elections 16%
  • Passing green energy policies that address environmental concerns 12%
  • Working to enact President Obama’s agenda generally 10%
  • Working to expand rights to those in the LGBT community 7%
  • Countering right-wing attacks on Obama and his agenda 6%
  • Working to enact progressive economic policies 5%
  • Increasing accessibility to quality education for all 4%
  • Passing comprehensive immigration reform 3%
  • Passing legislation to make it easier for workers to organize 3%
  • Working to end our military involvement in Iraq and Afghanistan 1%

Please indicate on a scale from 0 to 10 how willing you would be to contribute your own money, time and/or efforts in order to help President Obama and the Democrats pass legislation on specific issues with 10 being extremely willing and 0 being not at all willing.

  • Comprehensive health care reform 8.3
  • Comprehensive energy reform. 7.4
  • The Employee Free Choice Act 6.5

Of the two candidates who have declared they are running for the Democratic nomination for the Senate here in Pennsylvania, who do you currently support?

  • Joe Sestak 46%
  • Arlen Specter 10%
  • Neither 7%
  • Don’t Know 33%

Please choose the term that best describes how you think of yourself in political terms.

  • Progressive 54%
  • Liberal 26%
  • Moderate 9%
  • Conservative 0%

Survey of 252 conference attendees was conducted August 13-14.

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46 Responses to “Poll Watch: Democracy Corps/Greenberg Quinlan Rosner (D) Netroots Nation 2009 Straw Poll”

  1. Tommy Boy Says:

    LOL

    I would have guessed that she’d get a 5% favorability rating from these freaks.

  2. Jonathan Says:

    Why don’t these people have the testicular fortitude to call themselves “liberal”? They insist on being called “progressives”. Conservatives are not ashamed to take the title conservative, why are liberals so scared to call themselves liberal?

  3. Idahoan Says:

    Ya to be honest I always thought a liberal and a progressive were one in the same. I guess I was wrong?

  4. Flip Dixon Says:

    Nothing about this poll is the least bit surprising.

    The only point in doing a poll on Palin/Limbaugh is to show how disliked they are by the nutroots. But everybody knew that already. So it’s all for show.

    Interesting how the nutroots no longer care about Iraq and Afghanistan now that Obama is in charge. If Bush was escalating the war in Afghanistan, it would probably be at the top of the list.

  5. Tin Tin Says:

    So, can we finally kill this dumb meme that the left attacks Palin because they’re afraid of her?

    They’re clearly afraid of Mitt Romney, not Palin.

  6. Aron Goldman Says:

    Interesting how the nutroots no longer care about Iraq and Afghanistan now that Obama is in charge. If Bush was escalating the war in Afghanistan, it would probably be at the top of the list.

    From last year’s Netroots Straw Poll:

    Please indicate below which one of these you feel should be the top priority for the next administration.

    The war in Iraq 23%
    Energy and global warming 20%
    Lack of affordable health care 15%
    The growing gap between the rich and the poor 12%
    Loss of constitutional rights 7%
    Corruption and special interests running Washington 6%
    Other 6%
    The federal deficit and government spending 3%
    Increased debt owed to foreign nations 3%
    High gas prices 2%
    Making education more affordable 1%
    Illegal immigration 1%
    Terrorism 0%
    Increased taxes and more spending 0%
    Lack of equal rights for gay and lesbian community 0%

    Please choose the term that best describes how you think of yourself in political terms.

    •Progressive 47%
    •Liberal 40%
    •Moderate 12%
    •Conservative 0%

    http://www.ourfuture.org/public-pulse/netroots-nation-straw-poll

  7. Brian Says:

    I like seeing Romney where he is in this poll. They did get that one thing right- with the economy the way it is, Romney should scare the hell out of anyone calling themselves a Democrat.

  8. Flip Dixon Says:

    I doubt Romney scares anyone. But I agree he would probably be hard for the Dems to beat than Palin or Santorum or Jindal or Ron Paul.

    Pawlenty and Huckabee’s numbers are really no different from the Mitten, and they are his main competition.

  9. MWS Says:

    “coordinating messages against Republicans and the corporate special interests standing in the way of reform.”

    LOL!!!!! His Royal Highness Barack I has been dispensing hundreds of billions to his crony capitalist friends. They call it “stimulus.” Contrary to popular opinion, the upper eschelons of Wall Street are overwhelming Democrat, because Big Government gets to pick Big Winners with taxpayer money.

  10. MWS Says:

    “Please choose the term that best describes how you think of yourself in political terms.”

    Soviet Communist 26%
    Cambodian Communist 17%
    Chinese Communist 14%
    Cuban Communist 12%
    North Korean Communist 12%
    Other Communist 19%

  11. Jerald Says:

    MWS…..You are right and LOL

  12. Jerald Says:

    #8…Seems like Romney scares you. ;)

  13. Aron Goldman Says:

    Party prepares liberals to accept deal
    http://dyn.politico.com/printstory.cfm?uuid=1C24659E-18FE-70B2-A8244D6B57A65F5D

    After the toughest week yet for health reform, leading Democrats are warning that the party likely will have to accept major compromises to get a bill passed this year – perhaps even dropping a proposal to create a government-run plan that is almost an article of faith among some liberals.

    With August dominated by angry faces and raised voices at town hall meetings, influential Democrats began laying the groundwork for the fall, particularly with the party’s liberal base, saying they may need to accept a less-than-perfect bill to achieve health reform this year.

    “Trying to hold the president’s feet to the fire is fine, but first we have to win the big argument,” former President Bill Clinton said Thursday at the Netroots Nation convention, a gathering of liberal activists and bloggers who will prove most difficult to convince. “I am pleading with you. It is OK with me if you want to keep everybody honest. . . . But try to keep this thing in the lane of getting something done. We need to pass a bill and move this thing forward.”

    “I want us to be mindful we may need to take less than a full loaf,” he said after recounting the political troubles that followed his failed reform effort in 1994.

    It won’t be an easy sell. Even former national party chairman Howard Dean this week threatened Democrats who don’t support the public insurance plan with the prospect of primary challenges – the first rumblings of what could devolve into a Democratic civil war over health care.

    There is no guarantee, either, that progressive House and Senate members wouldn’t make good on their promise to oppose a bill without a public insurance plan.

    But the signs were everywhere this week that Democrats, stung and seemingly caught by surprise by the vehemence of the opposition to President Barack Obama’s overhaul plans, were already gaming out September and what it would take to get a bill to Obama’s desk.

    Jettisoning the public plan has always been one option, and even Obama has signaled for weeks that he would consider alternatives to a government insurance plan, which moderate Democratic senators have yet to embrace and nearly all Republicans oppose. And in the face of public resistance to Obama’s plans, some top Democrats have begun to talk more openly about the possibility of compromise on a bill.

    Sen. Dick Durbin, the Senate’s No. 2 Democrat, said twice this week that he was open to dropping the public plan to pass a bill. “We are determined to get a bill to the floor. It doesn’t have to be a perfect bill. I don’t want this process filibustered to failure,” he said.

    White House health reform czar Nancy-Ann DeParle said recently the president was willing to study replacing the government-run plan with non-profit insurance cooperatives – a compromise under consideration in the Senate Finance Committee.

    Writing in a Washington Post op-ed, Democratic strategist Paul Begala, who is close to White House chief of staff Rahm Emanuel, warned progressives against turning their backs on reform if it doesn’t include everything they want. As a former consultant to Clinton during the health care battle, Begala said he carries “a heavy burden of regret from my role in setting the bar too high the last time we tried fundamental health reform.” He had urged Clinton to veto any bill short of guaranteeing universal health care.

    “It would be a bitter disappointment if health reform did not include a public option,” he wrote. “A public plan that keeps the insurance companies honest is, I believe, the right policy and the right politics. . . . The question is not whether I or other progressives will support a health-reform bill that includes everything we want but, rather, whether we will support a bill that doesn’t.”

    In addition, there is a great deal of risk for Obama in a potential compromise as well – deeply disappointing the same liberal base that helped power his election last fall. A government-run plan is what gets hard core Democrats up in the morning and it’s what’s energizing the grassroots supporters on the ground.

    “The public plan remains the glue that holds the Democratic base together,” said Kirsch, whose coalition is designed to aggressively push the public option. “We’re concerned that every Democrat remembers that in order to pass reform they have to keep the Democratic base behind them until the end.”

    A straw poll at the progressive Netroots conference where Clinton spoke showed a majority of attendees—53 percent—said they cannot support a health care reform bill that does not include a public option.

  14. Tommy Boy Says:

    Conrad disputed the report that indicated he had said that he would not vote for a bill with a public option. Perhaps Hoeven should start faking that he’s going to run to push Conrad into a no vote.

    http://www.salon.com/politics/war_room/2009/08/14/conrad/index.html

  15. Aron Goldman Says:

    Sunday talk show tip sheet

    “Fox News Sunday” gets Sen. Kent Conrad (D-N.D.), Sen. Richard Shelby (R- Ala.) and James Rohack, president of the American Medical Association, to debate health care.
    NBC’s “Meet the Press” is also health care focused, with Sen. Tom Coburn (R-Okla.), one of the Obama administration’s most vocal critics, and former House Majority Leader Dick Armey (R-Texas).
    White House press secretary Robert Gibbs takes on the president’s vocal critics in an interview on CBS’s “Face the Nation,” followed by former Sen. Chuck Hagel (R-Neb.) and former Rep. Lee Hamilton (D-Ind.).
    Sen. Arlen Specter (D-Pa.), who found himself in the middle of one of the week’s more memorable shout fests, is on ABC’s “This Week,” where White House correspondent Jake Tapper is filling in for George Stephanopoulos. Tapper also gets Sen. Orrin Hatch (R-Utah) and Secretary of Health and Human Services Kathleen Sebelius.
    Sebelius also appears on CNN’s “State of the Union” to talk through President Barack Obama’s health care proposals, as well as Sen. John Barrasso (R-Wyo.) and Reps. Tom Price (R-Ga.) and Eddie Bernice Johnson (D-Texas).

    Sanford faces stormy forecast

    Sandoval expected to be formidable candidate in bid for Nevada governor

    Kenneth Bacon dies at 64

    Fatah’s message
    by Caroline Glick

  16. MWS Says:

    #13

    Looks like the Democrats may wind up with a bill that pleases nobody, just so they can have something to attach Obama’s name to.

    Translation? Demoralized Democrats and energized Republicans for 2010.

  17. MWS Says:

    In last year’s Netroots straw poll, the Holy Spirit got a -75 unfavorable, and the Blessed Virgin got a -88, which just confirms that liberals are more tolerant of conservative Spirits than conservative women.

  18. Aron Goldman Says:

    Good news could spell trouble for GOP
    http://dyn.politico.com/printstory.cfm?uuid=1FFABC32-18FE-70B2-A85A53FBB6AAD74A

    In emotional moment, Obama invokes grandmother’s death to counter debunked ‘death panel’ claim
    http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/O/OBAMA_TOWN_HALL?SITE=TXMID&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT

    Obama Criticizes ‘Scare Tactics’ of Health Care Reform Critics
    Obama said Americans no longer should be “held hostage by health insurance companies” that deny coverage for various reasons.
    http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2009/08/15/obama-criticizes-scare-tactics-health-care-reform-critics/

    Emanuel Wields Power Freely, and Faces the Risks
    http://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/16/us/politics/16emanuel.html?_r=3&hp=&pagewanted=all

    Gov. Jim Doyle won’t seek re-election
    Wisconsin Gov. Jim Doyle has told associates he will announce this week that he won’t seek a third term in 2010, POLITICO has learned. By deciding against a run, Doyle, a Democrat, sets off what could be one of the most competitive gubernatorial races in the country next year.
    http://dyn.politico.com/printstory.cfm?uuid=1F421245-18FE-70B2-A866E190406E4742

  19. Tommy Boy Says:

    Obama plays the grandma card (the same one that was a racist according to his speech on race). So can we say he put his family into the spotlight?

  20. MWS Says:

    “Gov. Jim Doyle won’t seek re-election”

    Paul Ryan for Governor!!!!!!!!

  21. Aron Goldman Says:

    Government Proposes Massive Shift In Online Privacy Policy
    Changes Would Pose Serious Threat To Americans’ Personal Information, Says ACLU
    http://www.aclu.org/privacy/gen/40662prs20090810.html?s_src=RSShttp://www.aclu.org/privacy/gen/40662prs20090810.html?s_src=RSS

    FOX’s Megyn Kelly Grills White House’s Bill Burton Over Collecting Email Addresses
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yfnjiZIY94Y
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YBCFkVJWyeU&eurl=

  22. Aron Goldman Says:

    Gordon Brown puts NHS at heart of election
    http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article6797749.ece?print=yes&randnum=1250391315625

    GORDON BROWN last night broke off from his summer holiday to accuse the Tories of being two-faced over the National Health Service and pledged to put healthcare at the centre of the general election campaign.

    The prime minister claimed the outspoken remarks by Daniel Hannan, the Conservative MEP, attacking the British health system on US television “spoke to a larger truth” about Tory attitudes.

    Brown’s decision to end a three-week period of near total media silence is a sign of Labour’s desperation to capitalise on the row.

    “That truth is that there are two Tory faces on the NHS. Behind all the recent talk of commitment, the party has not truly been reformed,” wrote Brown on the Labour website.

    The row began with US Republicans using the example of the NHS as a way of attacking President Obama’s proposed healthcare reforms.

    Hannan’s remarks that the NHS was so bad he “wouldn’t wish it on anybody” put the Conservatives on the back foot.

    “This is not just a debate for this week. It is central to everything we believe in and care about. And I am determined to take the fight to the Tories, not just today, but in the weeks and months ahead,” Brown wrote.

    However, the prime minister faced embarrassment as a group of 1,000 doctors, most working in the NHS, said the system had to “change or die”. Doctors for Reform, a campaign group and think tank, said the NHS cannot survive if it is funded by taxation alone.

    Dr Christoph Lees, an NHS consultant and founding member of Doctors for Reform, said: “The NHS is going to move from a health system that has been developing to one that is regressing. Several expensive drugs will not be given approval . . . we are going to move towards more rationing.”

    Professor Karol Sikora, medical director of CancerPartners-UK, a private firm, and a former director of cancer services at an NHS hospital, attacked Labour’s attempt to turn the NHS into an issue of “patriotism”.

    “It is ridiculous that no one is allowed to criticise anything,” Sikora said.

    Cameron yesterday faced new pressure of his own. George Osborne, his shadow chancellor, was forced to issue a statement after appearing to backtrack on the Tory pledge to continue increasing health spending in real terms.

    Meanwhile, a Conservative MP has been revealed to have called recently for the dismantling of the NHS. Peter Bone, MP for Wellingborough and a member of the Commons health committee, described the NHS as a “Stalinist system”.

    Britain’s Brown trails badly in two opinion polls
    http://www.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idUSTRE57F00D20090816
    http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/top-stories/2009/08/16/surprise-icm-poll-puts-mandelson-among-public-favourites-in-leadership-race-115875-21599268/
    http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/article6797786.ece

    Britain’s ruling Labour Party trails the opposition Conservatives by up to 17 points in the polls with a parliamentary election less than a year away, according to two surveys published on Sunday.

    A YouGov poll for the Sunday Times put Prime Minister Gordon Brown’s Labour up three percentage points at 28 percent, with David Cameron’s Conservatives unchanged at 42 percent.

    A poll by ICM for the Sunday Mirror newspaper showed Labour down one point from last month at 26 percent and the Conservatives up two points at 43, giving them a 17 point lead.

  23. Aron Goldman Says:

    Marist Poll
    http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/misc/usapolls/us090803/FB_VICK/Agree%20or%20Disagree%20with%20NFL%20Commissioners%20Decision%20to%20Return%20to%20Football.htm

    The NFL Commissioner has cleared the way for Michael Vick, the NFL quarterback convicted of dogfighting charges, to return to playing football in the NFL. Do you agree or disagree with this decision?

    Agree 57%
    Disagree 36%

    Among Men

    Agree 69%
    Disagree 27%

    Among Women

    Agree 39%
    Disagree 51%

    Would you want your favorite professional football team to sign Michael Vick, or not?

    Yes 37%
    No 53%

    Among Men

    Yes 43%
    No 51%

    Among Women

    Yes 28%
    No 58%

    Survey of 526 NFL Fans. MoE: +/- 4.5%

  24. Tommy Boy Says:

    Here’s what I posted in the open thread regarding the Vick poll:

    http://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/3328669070

    “First run of national poll: literally an even breakdown on whether people think Vick should be able to play this year. That never happens!”

    If these numbers hold, Obama will likely be at no higher than 48% approval in the national PPP poll to be released next week. Marist found the numbers to be 57-36 in favor of Vick but the more accurate pollster from 2008 is finding much different numbers, suggesting a more culturally conservative sample.

  25. Aron Goldman Says:

    Marist found the numbers to be 57-36 in favor of Vick but the more accurate pollster from 2008 is finding much different numbers, suggesting a more culturally conservative sample.

    Not necessarily. Whereas Marist polled and reported the results from, specifically, NFL fans, PPP may well be surveying only adults or registered voters. And seven percent fewer Americans (53%) believe sports players who have been convicted of a crime should be allowed to return to the sport after serving their time in prison than the subsample of NFL fans (60 percent).

  26. Aron Goldman Says:

    a divide in the birther ranks? Our national poll so far finds them nearly divided between thinking he was born in indonesia and kenya

    http://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/3321996022

    Obama first moved to Indonesia in 1967, at the age of six, with his mother and Indonesian stepfather. And, if Obama were actually born in Mombasa in 1961, as the brain dead birthers allege, that would mean he entered the world in the former British colony of Zanzibar.

    Tom Jensen of PPP is certainly enjoying himself at the expense of the retarded wing of the Republican Party.

    we’re really drumming down on the birthers- we’re asking everyone who doesn’t say Barack Obama was born in the US if they think he was born in Indonesia, Kenya, the Philippines, and heck we threw France in there to cover our bases.

    http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2009/08/coming-next-week.html

  27. Tommy Boy Says:

    Aron,

    Good point about the NFL fans. I missed that but I still contend the trends at this point suggest Obama is under 50%.

    I’ll predict a national approval of 48/46 and a Colorado approval of 45/48 (that data about Medicare is devestating for Obama in the state).

  28. mike Says:

    The Bipartisan warfare-welfare state in America relies upon a very insidious ideological consequence of the two party system, where by the concepts of liberty and tyranny are distributed among left and right so as to prevent an honest and coherent debate from gaining traction. The false right left paradigm was created in the media on purpose to Balkenize America. United we stand, divided we fall. God bless America.

  29. Tommy Boy Says:

    Maybe this opinion piece from the editorial board of the Union Leader, one of New Hampshire’s major newspapers, will help Palin cut into what seems to be a big Mitt Romney lead at the moment in the state, at least according to the strategic marketing research and consulting company called Populus.

    Score one for Sarah: Where are Hodes, Shea-Porter?
    http://www.unionleader.com/article.aspx?headline=Score+one+for+Sarah%3A+Where+are+Hodes%2C+Shea-Porter%3F&articleId=4095b948-c026-404a-bbf9-fb940fa35103

  30. Tommy Boy Says:

    Competing health care ads swamp the airwaves
    Debate has given way to full-blown national political campaigns
    http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/32434491/ns/politics-the_new_york_times/

    Mr. Tracey said that, generally, the advertisements in favor of an overhaul had been “cheerleading” up to this point, while those against it had successfully raised doubts about it. “People may favor health care reform,” he said, “but if you can pull out end-of-life issues or taxpayer-funded abortions or rationing care and dictating lifestyle, those fit really well into 30-second spots.”

    White House aides concede that Mr. Obama, who is stumping the country for his health care plan, has lost some ground; they chalk it up partly to misleading advertisements suggesting that the government will ration health care or that senior citizens will be denied end-of-life care.

  31. Aron Goldman Says:

    Misinterpreting Obama’s numbers
    http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2009/08/misinterpreting-obamas-numbers.html

    Charlie Cook declared in his column yesterday that Barack Obama would be ‘unlikely’ to win Virginia today.

    False. This is where we lose perspective on what the President’s falling approval numbers really mean. Ok so his national approval rating was in the 60s a couple months ago and now everyone (except Rasmussen) has it in the 50s. Guess what? If you have 13% more of the people with you than against you, as today’s RCP average suggests, you get reelected in a landslide.

    I’ve said it before but it bears repeating. Obama’s numbers were artificially high for most of the year. Republicans who would probably never vote for him were giving him a chance and saying they approved of his job performance. Now they, and conservative leaning independents, are not and that’s bringing Obama’s numbers down. But is he actually bleeding the support of people who voted for him in November? Our numbers say no. Over the course of Virginia and North Carolina polls over the last two weeks we found a 95% correlation between how people voted for President last year and whether they now approve or disapprove of Obama. 3% didn’t vote for Obama and now approved of him and 2% did vote for Obama but now disapproved of him. He still has pretty much all the support he had on election day!

    Now Cook may be thinking Virginia is a special case, and we did put out a dreadful approval poll for him there last week. But that was with a 2009 electorate. Reweight it for the November 2008 electorate and you had Obama’s approval at 50/44, basically identical to his 52-46 margin of victory in the state.

    Barack Obama would definitely win Virginia if there was an election today. His numbers may be down from their lofty heights earlier in 2009 but unless you expected him to win 480 electoral votes in 2012, it’s important to be careful about the extent to which his current poll numbers really suggests any trouble for his reelection prospects three years from now.

  32. Aron Goldman Says:

    Race and Ideology
    http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2009/08/race-and-ideology.html

    Yet another report on ideology came out today, this time from Gallup, showing that there are more conservatives than liberals in every state. Republicans often look at these and wonder why they’re not winning more.

    Part of the reason is that Democrats have about a 30 point identification advantage right now among moderates. But another reason is that black voters, although generally perceived to be liberals, do not tend to identify themselves that way.

    Consider these figures on the ideological identification of African Americans in our polls over the last month:

    Nationally there are actually more blacks who identify as conservatives than liberals, and the numbers break down pretty evenly in the individual states. Black voters may tend toward the liberal side on most individual issues and certainly vote for more liberal candidates close to 100% of the time, but they don’t think of themselves as liberals. That’s one reason why these ideology numbers don’t go that far in explaining voting behavior.

  33. Tommy Boy Says:

    The problem with Jensen’s analysis is his assumption that nothing has changed to the 2008 electorate. If his Virginia analysis was sound, then why is the percentage of Republicans pretty much the same as it was on November 4th? The real difference in his Virginia numbers is between Democrats and independents.

  34. Tommy Boy Says:

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/polls/postpoll_081609.html?sid=ST2009081503351

    Among likely voters

    McDonnell 54
    Deeds 39

    Among registered voters

    McDonnell 47
    Deeds 40

    Obama’s endorsement, more or less likely among registered voters

    More likely 34
    Less Likely 34

    I wonder why the Post doesn’t show us the data for Obama among likely voters. Could it be that the numbers would show him around a 29/39 more likely/less likely split with likely voters?

  35. Kevin Says:

    I guess since I’m the resident liberal, I’ll answer these.

    Of the main contenders for the 2012 Republican nomination for President, please indicate who, in your opinion, would be the easiest to beat.

    * Sarah Palin 36%
    * Rick Santorum 20%
    * Bobby Jindal 12%
    * Ron Paul 7%
    * Rudy Giuliani 5%
    * Jeb Bush 4%
    * Jon Kyl 3%
    * Mike Huckabee 2%
    * Tim Pawlenty 1%
    * Mitt Romney 1%
    Santorum would be the easiest, but I don’t think he’ll run. Among likely candidates, Palin will be the easiest to beat, and Romney the hardest.

    Please indicate if you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president?

    * Strongly approve 51%
    * Somewhat approve 44%
    * Somewhat disapprove 3%
    * Strongly disapprove 2%

    Favorable / Unfavorable (Net)

    * Barack Obama 85% / 2% (+83%)
    * Jon Stewart 82% / 2% (+80%)
    * Stephen Colbert 76% / 2% (+74%)
    * Joe Sestak 46% / 8% (+38%)
    * Arlen Specter 15% / 44% (-29%)
    * Sarah Palin 1% / 88% (-87%)
    * Rush Limbaugh 0% / 88% (-88%)
    favorable for all except Palin and Limbaugh

    Please read the pairs of statements below and for each indicate if the FIRST statement or the SECOND statement comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right.

    * I will support a health care reform bill even without a public option as long as it expands affordable coverage to all Americans and prevents insurance companies from denying coverage. 26%
    * A public option is the only way to truly hold insurance companies accountable and bring down costs and I will not support a health care reform bill without it. 53%

    * I support the House compromise on the energy bill because it’s an important first step to capping carbon emissions and averting a climate crisis. 46%
    * I oppose the House compromise on the energy bill because it creates too many loopholes for fossil fuel interests and doesn’t do enough to address the climate crisis. 27%

    * I’d support legislation that makes it easier for workers to organize, even without so-called “card check” provisions, because the other measures take important steps in protecting workers. 45%
    * I can’t support legislation to make it easier for workers to organize without the so-called “card check” provisions that will ensure workers can organize without intimidation or harassment. 28%

    * The best way to move a progressive agenda forward is for progressives to generally support Obama on his key initiatives, taking on his enemies and coordinating messages against Republicans and the corporate special interests standing in the way of reform. 41%
    * The best way to move a progressive agenda forward is for progressives to criticize President Obama when necessary and take on the Democrats, as well as Republicans and the corporate special interests, when they also stand in the way of reform. 35%

    Please indicate which TWO you think progressive activists should be focusing their attention and efforts on the most.

    * Passing comprehensive health care reform 60%
    * Passing green energy policies that address environmental concerns 22%
    * Working to enact progressive economic policies 19%
    * Working to elect progressive candidates in the 2010 elections 17%
    * Working to enact President Obama’s agenda generally 16%
    * Countering right-wing attacks on Obama and his agenda 13%
    * Increasing accessibility to quality education for all 9%
    * Passing legislation to make it easier for workers to organize 8%
    * Working to end our military involvement in Iraq and Afghanistan 8%
    * Working to expand rights to those in the LGBT community 6%
    * Passing comprehensive immigration reform 5%

    Which ONE of the below do you, personally, spend the most time advancing currently?

    * Passing comprehensive health care reform 23%
    * Working to elect progressive candidates in the 2010 elections 16%
    * Passing green energy policies that address environmental concerns 12%
    * Working to enact President Obama’s agenda generally 10%
    * Working to expand rights to those in the LGBT community 7%
    * Countering right-wing attacks on Obama and his agenda 6%
    * Working to enact progressive economic policies 5%
    * Increasing accessibility to quality education for all 4%
    * Passing comprehensive immigration reform 3%
    * Passing legislation to make it easier for workers to organize 3%
    * Working to end our military involvement in Iraq and Afghanistan 1%

    Please indicate on a scale from 0 to 10 how willing you would be to contribute your own money, time and/or efforts in order to help President Obama and the Democrats pass legislation on specific issues with 10 being extremely willing and 0 being not at all willing.

    * Comprehensive health care reform 5
    * Comprehensive energy reform. 7
    * The Employee Free Choice Act 0

    Of the two candidates who have declared they are running for the Democratic nomination for the Senate here in Pennsylvania, who do you currently support?

    * Joe Sestak 46%
    * Arlen Specter 10%
    * Neither 7%
    * Don’t Know 33%

    Please choose the term that best describes how you think of yourself in political terms.

    * Progressive 54%
    * Liberal 26%
    * Moderate 9%
    * Conservative 0%

    I hope I didn’t mess up the HTML…

  36. marK Says:

    I would be very interested in a poll that asked them whom they thought was the 2nd and maybe even the third easiest GOP candidate to beat.

  37. Aron Goldman Says:

    Democratic senator: Public health insurance option dead :)
    http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2009/08/16/democratic-senator-public-health-insurance-option-dead/

    A key Senate negotiator said Sunday that President Barack Obama should drop his push for a government-funded public health insurance option because the Senate will never pass it.

    Democratic Sen. Kent Conrad of North Dakota said it was futile to continue to “chase that rabbit” due to the lack of 60 Senate votes needed to overcome a filibuster.

    “The fact of the matter is there are not the votes in the United States Senate for a public option. There never have been,” Conrad said on “FOX News Sunday.”

    Conrad is one of six Senate Finance Committee members — three Democrats and three Republicans — who are negotiating a compromise health-care bill that would be the only bipartisan proposal so far.

    Three House bills and another Senate version have all been proposed by Democrats, and all contain provisions for a public health insurance option intended to compete against private insurers.

    Republican opponents argue the public option is a step toward the government taking over the health care industry. Many Democrats argue that it would have that effect.

    Conrad has proposed creating non-profit health insurance cooperatives that could negotiate coverage as a collective for their members.

    He said Sunday that such cooperatives would provide the competition sought by Obama and Democratic leaders to force private insurers to hold down costs and improve practices.

    Obama continues to support a public insurance option but appears to have softened his position in recent weeks.

    At a town hall meeting Saturday in Colorado, he said the issue is one of many that are critical to successfully overhauling the ailing health-care system. “All I’m saying is, though, that the public option, whether we have it or we don’t have it, is not the entirety of health care reform,” Obama said. “This is just one sliver of it.”

    On Sunday, Health and Human Services Secretary Kathleen Sebelius told CNN’s “State of the Union” that a final health-care bill will meet Obama’s requirements of affordable, accessible health coverage for all.

    “There will be a competition to private insurers,” she said. “You don’t turn over the whole new marketplace to private insurance companies and trust them to do the right thing. We need some choices and we need some competition.”

    Sebelius: Public Option Not “Essential”
    HHS Secretary says Sunday government insurance is not crucial to reform as long as there is “competition to private insurers.”
    http://thepage.time.com/2009/08/16/sebelius-public-option-not-essential/?xid=rss-page

  38. Aron Goldman Says:

    Sarah’s Ghoulish Carousel
    By Maureen Dowd
    http://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/16/opinion/16dowd.html?_r=2&pagewanted=print

    I’m not sure the man who popped off and tweeted that Sonia Sotomayor was a “Latina woman racist” is the best Henry Higgins for the Eliza Doolittle of Alaska.

    But Newt Gingrich was a professor. And he does know something about pulling yourself up by dragging down others and imploding when you take center stage — both Palin specialties.

    Besides, he agrees with Sarah — who fretted that her parents and son Trig might be in danger from Obama “death panels” — that we should be very wary about trusting government with end-of-life decisions.

    So Newt took it upon himself to become Palin’s Pygmalion. He told Politico that the out-of-work pol should write a book; take a commentator gig on TV; get a condo in D.C. or New York to use as an East Coast base; and prepare three types of speeches — one “to make money,” another to “project her brand” before universities and interest groups, and a vivid campaign stump speech to use for Republican candidates in 2010.

    Most important, he advised, the dizzy Palin has to be “clear in her own head what she wants to do.”

    At the moment, what she wants to do is tap into her visceral talent for aerial-shooting her favorite human prey: cerebral Ivy League Democrats.

    Just as she was able to stir up the mob against Barack Obama on the trail, now she is fanning the flames against another Harvard smarty-pants — Dr. Zeke Emanuel, a White House health care adviser and the older brother of Rahmbo.

    She took a forum, Facebook, more commonly used by kids hooking up and cyberstalking, and with one catchy phrase, several footnotes and a zesty disregard for facts, managed to hijack the health care debate from Mr. Obama.

    Sarahcuda knows, from her brush with Barry on the campaign trail, that he is vulnerable on matters that demand a visceral and muscular response rather than a logical and book-learned one. Mr. Obama was charming and informed at his town hall in Montana on Friday, but he’s going to need some sustained passion, a clear plan and a narrative as gripping as Palin’s I-see-dead-people scenario.

    She has successfully caricatured the White House health care effort, making it sound like the plot of the 1976 sci-fi movie “Logan’s Run,” about a post-apocalyptic society with limited resources where you can live only until age 30, when you must take part in an extermination ceremony called “Carousel” or flee the city.

    Painting the Giacometti-esque Emanuel as a creepy Dr. Death, Palin attacked him on her Facebook page a week ago, complaining that his “Orwellian thinking” could lead to a “death panel” with bureaucrats deciding whether to pull the plug on less hardy Americans.

    Never mind that Palin herself had endorsed some of the same end-of-life counseling she now depicts as putting Grandma down.

    As the Democratic National Committee pointed out, Palin put out a 2008 proclamation for Healthcare Decisions Day “to raise public awareness of the need to plan ahead for healthcare decisions, related to end of life care … and to encourage the specific use of advance directives to communicate these important healthcare decisions.”

    Consistency was long ago sent to a death panel in Palin world.

    Sensing traction, she took more shots against Dr. Emanuel, quoting the bioethicist’s past writing that some medical services might not be guaranteed to those “who are irreversibly prevented from being or becoming participating citizens. … An obvious example is not guaranteeing health services to patients with dementia.”

    “Dr. Emanuel,” she wrote ominously, “has also advocated basing medical decisions on a system which ‘produces a priority curve on which individuals aged between roughly 15 and 40 years get the most chance, whereas the youngest and oldest people get chances that are attenuated.’ ”

    She crowed that she had him on the run, and the White House felt that the doctor, who was being portrayed as a proponent of euthanasia, needed to get out there and explain his opposition to euthanasia. So he interrupted his hiking vacation in the Italian Alps to give a raft of phone interviews saying he was taken out of context and calling Palin’s charges “completely off the wall.”

    But, much to Sarah’s delight, he also conceded to The Washington Times that his “thinking has evolved” on the “very vexing” issue of deciding who gets treatment and who doesn’t.

    “When I began working in the health policy area about 20 years ago … I thought we would definitely have to ration care, that there was a need to make a decision and deny people care,” he told the paper, adding that he now feels that if we get rid of expensive “unnecessary care” that “we would have absolutely no reason to even consider rationing except in a few cases.”

    A few cases? Sounds like another Facebook entry for Sarah.

  39. Alex Knepper Says:

    Why don’t these people have the testicular fortitude to call themselves “liberal”? They insist on being called “progressives”. Conservatives are not ashamed to take the title conservative, why are liberals so scared to call themselves liberal?

    Maybe if they keep it up, I can have the word liberal back.

  40. marK Says:

    #39

    Five points to Alex. :-)

  41. Jerald Says:

    #38–But SoCons never note the flip-flops of Palin…….

  42. JayPe Says:

    Santorum can now start telling everyone he came 2nd in an early 2012 poll, thus showing that he’s a frontrunner.

  43. JayPe Says:

    Furthermore, another poll showed that Sestak absolutely wasted Spector 46% to 10%.

  44. Aron Goldman Says:

    Begala calls Palin ‘whack job’
    Democratic strategist Paul Begala called the former Alaska governor “an intellectual lightweight”
    http://www.cnn.com/video/?/video/politics/2009/08/14/sot.begalapalin.cnn

    Levi Johnston’s Fledgling Gay Porn Career
    http://gawker.com/5338988/levi-johnstons-fledgling-gay-porn-career?skyline=true&s=x

    Levi Johnston: Gay Icon
    http://gawker.com/5337507/levi-johnston-gay-icon

    Star Magazine: Sarah Palin’s Shattered Marriage
    http://www.starmagazine.com/sarah_palin_todd_shattered_marriage/news/15939

  45. Aron Goldman Says:

    In America, Crazy Is a Preexisting Condition
    Birthers, Town Hall Hecklers and the Return of Right-Wing Rage
    By Rick Perlstein
    http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/08/14/AR2009081401495_pf.html

  46. Knickers in a twister Says:

    44. I don’t think any liberal democrate is afaid of Palin. Clearly, they don’t want Mitt Romney anywhere NEAR the nom.

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