December 2, 2008

The Gambler’s and Pollster’s Bet: Saxby Wins

  8:48 am

Signs are pointing towards a Saxby Chambliss victory in the runoff. He has what the President-Elect might call “a righteous wind” at his back. Every poll shows Chambliss up, including the latest Democratic Public Policy Polling survey which has a 53-46% Chambliss lead:

Chambliss is up 71-28 on Jim Martin with whites. For Martin to win the runoff with that performance, the electorate would have to be 34% African American. Given that it was only 30% for the general election with Barack Obama at the top of the ballot and that early voting was less than 23% black, that does not seem particularly likely.

Chambliss is up 58-41 among those poll respondents who reported having participated in early voting, not surprising given the overwhelmingly white nature of those who have already cast their ballots. Martin will need an incredible Democratic turnout at the polls tomorrow to make up for the deficit he goes into election day with based on early voters.

Martin leads with voters under 45, but trails 68-31 with voters over 65. Senior citizens are the most reliable group of voters and likely to make up a larger portion of the electorate than they did on November 4th for this comparatively low interest election. That’s just one more hurdle to climb for the Democratic challenger.

Overall, the RCP Average has Chambliss up by a solid 5.3%. 

At the same time, Intrade is almost amazingly confident of Chambliss prevailing. Yesterday, the contract on Republican Victory in the runoff closed at 93.7, as of my writing right now, it’s at 97.0. For those curious, on the Minnesota race, Norm Coleman’s contract is 79.8.



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Encouraging numbers for Saxby.


I just checked the MN State website, and I'm wondering what's going on. I've provided a link below. It's claiming that Mr. Franken is leading in the recount, but also that he lead on election day. Glitch, someone trying to sway things, or has something happened that nobody knows about yet?


Well I did my part, voted for Saxby this morning.



What it looks like to me is that's the result from the precincts that have been recounted, which slightly favor Franken. You basically need to be tracking the change by precinct, which the media folks are doing.


I don't know Richard, but its scary.


Adam, that makes sense, then. I remember reviewing this site earlier in the process, and it showed about a 2K lead for Sen Coleman. If they're modifying all related numbers to reflect only the areas that have been recounted, that would account for the difference.


Just taking the as recounted and subtracting what appears to be the original for those precincts recounted, we have:

Franken gaining 2498 and

Coleman gaining 2369

There for it looks as if Franken has gained 129 votes on Coleman, but would still trail. Sound right?


Hannity suggested that Coleman has it in the bag last night. I hope he knows what he's talking about.


ILguy, that sounds about right. The question is going to be in the ballot challenges and whether Mr. Franken can get ballots that were initially excluded included, because he likely doesn't have enough votes on the table to do it as of this point. In the bag? No, but I'd have to say Sen Coleman has a good shot at this point.

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