September 14, 2014

Poll Watch: SurveyUSA North Carolina 2014 Senatorial Survey

SurveyUSA North Carolina 2014 Senate Poll

If the election for United States Senator from North Carolina were today, who would you vote for?

  • Kay Hagan (D) 46%
  • Thom Tillis (R) 43%
  • Sean Haugh (L) 5%

What if the only two candidates on the ballot were Republican Thom Tillis and Democrat Kay Hagan?

  • Kay Hagan (D) 47% (45%)
  • Thom Tillis (R) 46% (46%)

Survey of 490 likely voters was conducted September 9-10, 2014 for the Civitas Institute (R). The margin of error is +/- 4.5 percentage points. Party ID: 41% (42%) Democrat; 32% (33%) Republican; 27% (20%) Independent. Ideology: 41% (38%) Conservative; 39% (39%) Moderate; 16% (17%) Liberal. Results from the poll conducted March 27-31, 2014 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 10:32 am. Filed under 2014, Poll Watch

Poll Watch: USA Today/Suffolk University Michigan 2016 Republican Primary Survey

USA Today/Suffolk University Michigan 2016 GOP Primary Poll

  • Jeb Bush 11.17%
  • Mike Huckabee 11.17%
  • Marco Rubio 9.57%
  • Rand Paul 6.91%
  • Chris Christie 6.38%
  • Rick Perry 6.38%
  • Scott Walker 6.38%
  • Paul Ryan 5.85%
  • Ted Cruz 5.32%
  • Rick Santorum 5.32%
  • Bobby Jindal 2.66%
  • Jon Huntsman 2.13%
  • John Kasich 0.53%
  • Undecided 17.02%

Survey of 188 likely GOP primary voters was conducted September 6-10, 2014.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 10:27 am. Filed under 2016, Jeb Bush, Mike Huckabee, Poll Watch

September 13, 2014

The Extinction Of Handwriting?

The art of penmanship used to be an important skill in American life, and whether or not you were good at it, writing in cursive longhand was something almost everyone had to do to communicate until the commercial typewriter
was invented in 1868.

Today, longhand or cursive writing by most Americans is limited to signing a check, signing a credit card slip, or writing a few words on an otherwise printed document.

Letter writing survives technically, but most communications today are by e-mails or text messages. Pen and ink, or even pen and pencil, are almost extinct.

Until the 19th century, every book was written in longhand before being typeset. Today, more and more books are being written, published  and read electronically.

It is an irreversible phenomenon.

A relatively few persons, however, insist on writing letters. Some Americans, both famous and non-famous, persist in communicating in handwritten form. Fine writing instruments and fine papers to write with them are still made, but pen and paper companies are disappearing. The number of persons who write letters or anything else in longhand is fast dwindling.

The extinction of handwriting has been hastened by the many new devices with which you can scribble your signature on a credit card screen with your fingernail, or send money and information electronically without any signature at all.

Collectors of autograph letters and manuscripts no longer have contemporary material to acquire. Autographs and signatures themselves can be made with a machine. Handwriting itself will soon be something only found in a museum.

If handwriting survives at all, it will likely be as an art form like painting, and practiced only by s few artists.

In a few decades, most Americans will not be able to read the original Declaration of Independence and U.S. Constitution documents.

In a few generations, ordinary handwriting will likely not be readable by anyone except a few scholars and trained experts. The handwriting that billions of us now take for granted will be like cuneiform, ancient pictograms and hieroglyphics are regarded today. It will be the same for those who speak English and other Indo-European languages, and those who write in calligraphic ideograms and non-Roman letters such as Chinese, Japanese, Hebrew, Arabic and Hindi.

The question is, therefore, how long will penmanship be taught in schools? Will the children of the future even know how to write?  Common Core does not ban teaching cursive longhand, but it also does not require it.

Because computers use keyboards, the skill of typing is still an important one. But even the ability to type may soon be extinct. (I’m old enough to recall that I thought the invention of the electric typewriter was “amazing.”) New devices now accurately transpose the spoken word into print on a computer screen. It is being widely suggested that even the spoken word might be soon extinct, as new inventions, already in development, can transpose words you “think” to a computer or readable device. No “sound” will be necessary.

It is all happening very quickly, and even if inevitable, it will change the whole nature of how human beings communicate to each other in only a few generations, and with sudden alterations of human culture itself.

Who knows the now inestimable consequences of this?

————————————————————————————-
Copyright (c) 2014 by Barry Casselman. All rights reserved.

 

by @ 12:49 pm. Filed under Culture, Opinion, Predictions

Poll Watch: CBS News/New York Times/YouGov Wisconsin 2014 Gubernatorial Survey

CBS News/New York Times/YouGov Wisconsin 2014 Gubernatorial Poll

  • Scott Walker (R) 49%
  • Mary Burke (D) 45%
  • Not sure 5%

Survey of 1,473 likely voters was conducted August 18 – September 2, 2014.  The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 12:15 pm. Filed under 2014, Poll Watch

Poll Watch: CNN/ORC Iowa 2016 Democratic Caucus Survey

CNN/ORC Iowa 2016 Democratic Caucus Poll

  • Hillary Clinton 53%
  • Joe Biden 15%
  • Elizabeth Warren 7%
  • Bernie Sanders 5%
  • Andrew Cuomo 3%
  • Martin O’Malley 2%
  • Deval Patrick 1%
  • Someone else (vol.) 1%
  • None/No one (vol.) 3%
  • No opinion 12%

Among Men

  • Hillary Clinton 40%
  • Joe Biden 21%
  • Bernie Sanders 9%
  • Elizabeth Warren 6%
  • Andrew Cuomo 3%
  • Martin O’Malley 0%
  • Deval Patrick 0%
  • Someone else (vol.) 1%
  • None/No one (vol.) 4%
  • No opinion 15%

Among Women

  • Hillary Clinton 63%
  • Joe Biden 10%
  • Elizabeth Warren 7%
  • Andrew Cuomo 3%
  • Bernie Sanders 2%
  • Martin O’Malley 2%
  • Deval Patrick 2%
  • Someone else (vol.) 0%
  • None/No one (vol.) 2%
  • No opinion 9%

Survey of 309 registered Democrats was conducted September 8-10, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 5.5 percentage point

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 12:12 pm. Filed under 2014, Poll Watch

September 12, 2014

Poll Watch: CNN/ORC Iowa 2016 Republican Caucus Survey

CNN/ORC Iowa 2016 GOP Caucus Poll

  • Mike Huckabee 21%
  • Paul Ryan 12%
  • Rand Paul 7%
  • Chris Christie 6%
  • Jeb Bush 6%
  • Marco Rubio 5%
  • Rick Perry 5%
  • Scott Walker 5%
  • Bobby Jindal 4%
  • Ted Cruz 4%
  • Rick Santorum 3%

Survey of registered Republicans was conducted September 8-10, 2014.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 4:17 pm. Filed under 2016, Iowa Caucuses, Mike Huckabee, Poll Watch

September 11, 2014

Poll Watch: Magellan Strategies (R) Kentucky 2014 Senatorial Survey

Magellan Strategies (R) Kentucky 2014 Senate Poll

  • Mitch McConnell (R) 50% (46%)
  • Alison Lundergan Grimes (D) 42% (49%)
  • David Patterson (L) 6%
  • Undecided 2% (5%)

Survey of 742 likely voters was conducted September 4 and 7, 2014 for the National Mining Association. The margin of error is +/- 3.6 percentage points. Party registration: 56% (56%) Democrat; 40% (40%) Republican; 4% (4%) Independent. Results from the poll conducted June 4-5, 2014 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 8:45 pm. Filed under 2014, Poll Watch

Poll Watch: Quinnipiac Connecticut 2014 Gubernatorial Survey

Quinnipiac Connecticut 2014 Gubernatorial Poll

If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Dan Malloy the Democrat, Tom Foley the Republican, and Joe Visconti running as an independent, for whom would you vote?

  • Tom Foley (R) 46%
  • Dannel Malloy (D) 40%
  • Joe Visconti (I) 7%

Recalculated matchup, with Visconti supporters asked for their second choice:

  • Tom Foley (R) 49% {43%} [42%] (43%)
  • Dannel Malloy (D) 43% {43%} [42%] (40%)

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

  • Tom Foley 42% {36%} [38%] (35%) / 33% {23%} [21%] (18%) {+9%}
  • Dannel Malloy 40% {46%} [46%] (46%) / 53% {45%} [43%] (44%) {-13%}

Survey of 1,304 likely voters was conducted September 3-8, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 2.7 percentage points.  Party ID: 31% {32%} [31%] (34%) Democrat; 26% {21%} [20%] (21%) Republican; 38% {42%} [42%] (40%) Independent; 5% {5%} [6%] (4%) Other. Results from the poll conducted May 1-6, 2014 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 26 – March 2, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted June 12-17, 2013 are in parentheses

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 8:15 pm. Filed under 2014, Poll Watch

Poll Watch: Glengariff Group Michigan 2014 Senatorial Survey

Glengariff Group Michigan 2014 Senate Poll

  • Gary Peters (D) 47.0% (39.6%)
  • Terri Lynn Land (R) 36.5% (35.3%)
  • Other candidate 3.5%

Survey of 600 likely voters was conducted September 3-5, 2014 for The Detroit News and WDIV-TV. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points. Party ID: 40% (36.7%) Democrat; 38% (33.7%) Republican; 20% (26.7%) Independent. Results from the poll conducted May 20-22, 2014 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 7:45 pm. Filed under 2014, Poll Watch

Poll Watch: SurveyUSA Georgia 2014 Senatorial Survey

  • David Perdue (R) 47% [50%] (43%)
  • Michelle Nunn (D) 44% [41%] (38%)
  • Amanda Swafford (L) 5% [3%] (6%)
  • Undecided 4% [6%] (14%)

Among Men

  • David Perdue (R) 55% [56%] (50%)
  • Michelle Nunn (D) 36% [37%] (33%)
  • Amanda Swafford (L) 6% [2%] (6%)
  • Undecided 3% [4%] (11%)

Among Women

  • Michelle Nunn (D) 52% [46%] (44%)
  • David Perdue (R) 40% [44%] (35%)
  • Amanda Swafford (L) 3% [3%] (5%)
  • Undecided 4% [7%] (16%)

Survey of 558 likely voters was conducted September 5-8, 2014 for WXIA-TV Atlanta.  The margin of error is +/- 4.2 percentage points.  Party ID: 40% [38%] (35%) Democrat; 37% [40%] (38%) Republican; 23% [21%] (25%) Independent.  Ideology: 42% [44%](40%) Conservative; 36% [38%] (38%) Moderate; 17% [13%] (15%) Liberal.  Gender: 51% [48%] (47%) Female; 49% [52%] (53%) Male.  Race: 62% [63%] (65%) White; 29% [26%] (24%) Black; 6% [7%] (7%) Hispanic. Results from the poll conducted August 14-17, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted June 3-5, 2014 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 7:15 pm. Filed under 2014, Poll Watch

Poll Watch: SurveyUSA South Dakota 2014 Senatorial Survey

SurveyUSA South Dakota 2014 Senate Poll

  • Mike Rounds (R) 39% (44%)
  • Rick Weiland (D) 28% (30%)
  • Larry Pressler (I) 25% (17%)
  • Gordon Howie (I) 3% (3%)
  • Undecided 5% (5%)

Survey of 510 likely voters was conducted September 3-7, 2014.  The margin of error is +/- 4.4 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted May 6-10, 2014 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 6:45 pm. Filed under 2014, Poll Watch

Poll Watch: PPP (D) Florida 2016 Presidential Survey

PPP (D) Florida 2016 Presidential Poll

  • Hillary Clinton (D) 46% {46%} [53%] (49%)
  • Jeb Bush (R) 44% {45%} [40%] (44%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 49% {48%} [56%] (50%)
  • Marco Rubio (R) 42% {44%} [40%] (46%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 46% {46%}
  • Chris Christie (R) 38% {38%}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 48% {48%}
  • Rand Paul (R) 40% {42%}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 49% {48%}
  • Mike Huckabee (R) 40% {41%}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 51% {50%}
  • Ted Cruz (R) 36% {39%}

Among Men

  • Hillary Clinton (D) 47% {43%} [47%] (43%)
  • Jeb Bush (R) 42% {50%} [46%] (52%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 49% {42%} [50%] (43%)
  • Marco Rubio (R) 43% {49%} [46%] (53%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 46% {40%}
  • Chris Christie (R) 40% {44%}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 48% {43%}
  • Rand Paul (R) 41% {48%}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 48% {44%}
  • Mike Huckabee (R) 42% {47%}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 51% {46%}
  • Ted Cruz (R) 38% {46%}

Among Women

  • Jeb Bush (R) 46% {41%} [35%] (36%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 45% {49%} [58%] (54%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 49% {53%} [61%] (56%)
  • Marco Rubio (R) 40% {39%} [35%] (39%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 47% {51%}
  • Chris Christie (R) 37% {34%}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 49% {53%}
  • Rand Paul (R) 39% {37%}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 50% {52%}
  • Mike Huckabee (R) 39% {36%}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 52% {54%}
  • Ted Cruz (R) 36% {33%}

Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Marco Rubio’s job performance?

  • Approve 44% {45%} [44%] (49%)
  • Disapprove 41% {40%} [43%] (36%)

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Jeb Bush?

  • Favorable 50% {51%} [50%] (51%)
  • Unfavorable 35% {35%} [37%] (35%)

Do you think Jeb Bush should run for President in 2016, or not?

  • He should 31% {35%} [33%] (32%)
  • He should not 53% {50%} [51%] (53%)

Do you think Marco Rubio should run for President in 2016, or not?

  • He should 32% {27%} [37%] (38%)
  • He should not 53% {59%} [53%] (49%)

Survey of 818 likely voters was conducted September 4-7, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 3.4 percentage points. Party ID: 40% {38%} [42%] (44%) Democrat; 38% {37%} [37%] (38%) Republican; 22% {25%} [22%] (18%) Independent/Other.  Political ideology: 31% {28%} [32%] (33%) Moderate; 23% {25%} [21%] (21%) Somewhat conservative; 19% {22%} [17%] (17%) Somewhat liberal; 13% {15%}[17%] (18%) Very conservative; 13% {11%} [13%] (12%) Very liberal.  Results from the poll conducted June 6-9, 2014 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 15-18, 2013 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 11-13, 2013are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 6:15 pm. Filed under 2016, Herman Cain, Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, Poll Watch

Poll Watch: Rasmussen Maine 2014 Gubernatorial Survey

Rasmussen Maine 2014 Gubernatorial Poll

  • Mike Michaud (D) 43% (40%)
  • Paul LePage (R) 39% (40%)
  • Eliot Cutler (I) 15% (14%)
  • Undecided 4% (5%)
Survey of 750 likely voters was conducted September 3-4, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted April 23-25, 2014 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 5:45 pm. Filed under 2014, Poll Watch

Poll Watch: Fairleigh Dickinson PublicMind New Jersey 2016 Presidential Survey

FDU PublicMind New Jersey 2016 Presidential Poll 

  • Hillary Clinton (D) 45%
  • Chris Christie (R) 42%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 48%
  • Rand Paul (R) 33%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 51%
  • Jeb Bush (R) 32%
Among Independents
  • Chris Christie (R) 41%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 35%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 41%
  • Rand Paul (R) 30%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 45%
  • Jeb Bush (R) 22%
Among Men
  • Chris Christie (R) 44%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 43%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 42%
  • Rand Paul (R) 39%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 47%
  • Jeb Bush (R) 34%

Among Women

  • Hillary Clinton (D) 48%
  • Chris Christie (R) 40%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 53%
  • Rand Paul (R) 28%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 54%
  • Jeb Bush (R) 31%

Survey of 721 registered voters was conducted September 1-7, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 3.7 percentage points.  Party ID: 40% Democrat; 38% Republican; 23% Independent.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 5:15 pm. Filed under 2016, Poll Watch

Poll Watch: PPP (D) Michigan 2016 Presidential Survey

  • Hillary Clinton (D) 49% [47%] (48%) {48%} [55%]
  • Rand Paul (R) 39% [37%] (39%) {39%} [35%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 49% [47%] (49%) {46%} [51%]
  • Jeb Bush (R) 38% [37%] (38%) {42%} [37%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 48% [48%] (46%) {43%} [44%]
  • Chris Christie (R) 36% [35%] (37%) {40%} [38%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 50% [48%] (50%)
  • Mike Huckabee (R) 38% [36%] (38%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 51% [50%] {49%}
  • Ted Cruz (R) 37% [34%] {38%}
Survey of 687 likely voters was conducted September 4-7, 2014.  The margin of error is +/- 3.7 percentage points. Party ID: 37% [35%] (35%) {35%} [36%] Democrat; 29% [27%] (30%) {30%} [29%]Republican; 34% [38%] (35%) {35%} [35%] Independent/Other.  Political ideology: 27% [30%] (28%) {31%} [33%] Moderate; 23% [18%] (19%) {17%} [18%] Somewhat liberal; 21% [23%] (26%) {25%} [25%] Somewhat conservative; 15% [14%] (14%) {14%} [13%]Very conservative; 14% [14%] (12%) {12%} [11%] Very liberal.Results from the poll conducted June 26-29, 2014 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 3-6, 2014 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted December 5-8, 2013 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 30 – June 2, 2013 are in square brackets

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 4:45 pm. Filed under 2016, Poll Watch

Poll Watch: PPP (D) Michigan 2014 Senatorial Survey

PPP (D) Michigan 2014 Senate Poll

The candidates for U.S. Senate are Republican Terri Lynn Land, Democrat Gary Peters, Libertarian Jim Fulner, Green Party candidate Chris Wahmhoff, and U.S. Taxpayers Party candidate Richard Matkin. If the election was today, who would you vote for?

  • Gary Peters (D) 43%
  • Terri Lynn Land (R) 36%
  • Jim Fulner (L) 4%
  • Richard Matkin (UST) 2%
  • Chris Wahmhoff (G) 1%
  • Undecided 13%

Horse race, with third-party supporters asked if they’d vote Land or Peters:

  • Gary Peters (D) 45% (41%) {41%} [40%] (41%)
  • Terri Lynn Land (R) 40% (36%) {36%} [42%] (36%)
  • Not sure 15% (24%) {23%} [18%] (23%)

Among Men

  • Terri Lynn Land (R) 47% (39%) {40%} [50%] (42%)
  • Gary Peters (D) 44% (38%) {40%} [35%] (40%)
  • Not sure 9% (23%) {20%} [14%] (19%)

Among Women

  • Gary Peters (D) 47% (44%) {42%} [45%] (42%)
  • Terri Lynn Land (R) 33% (32%) {32%} [34%] (30%)
  • Not sure 20% (24%) {26%} [21%] (28%)

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

  • Gary Peters 35% (26%) {26%} [22%] (18%) / 36% (28%) {27%} [21%] (16%) {-1%}
  • Terri Lynn Land 32% (32%) {28%} [34%] (29%) / 49% (42%) {31%} [23%] (21%) {-17%}

Survey of 687 likely voters was conducted September 4-7, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 3.7 percentage points. Party ID: 37% (35%) {35%} [35%] (36%) Democrat; 29% (27%) {30%} [30%] (29%) Republican; 34% (38%) {35%} [35%] (35%) Independent/Other. Ideology: 27% (30%) {28%} [31%] (33%) Moderate; 23% (18%) {19%} [17%] (18%) Somewhat liberal; 21% (23%) {26%} [25%] (25%) Somewhat conservative; 15% (14%)  {14%} [14%] (13%) Very conservative; 14% (14%) {12%} [12%] (11%) Very liberal. Results from the poll conducted June 26-29, 2014 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted April 3-6, 2014 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted December 5-8, 2013 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted May 30 – June 2, 2013 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 3:15 pm. Filed under 2014, Poll Watch

Poll Watch: Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group (D) North Carolina 2014 Senatorial Survey

Survey of 802 likely voters was conducted September 3-6, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 3.5 percentage points.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 12:00 pm. Filed under 2014, Poll Watch

Poll Watch: SurveyUSA Kansas 2014 Senatorial Survey

SurveyUSA Kansas 2014 Senate Poll

If there were an election for US Senate today, and Democrat Chad Taylor’s name still appeared on the ballot even though he no longer wants to run, and the other names on the ballot were Republican Pat Roberts, Independent Greg Orman, and Libertarian Randall Batson, who would you vote for?

  • Greg Orman (I) 37% {20%}  [14%] (7%)
  • Pat Roberts (R) 36% {37%} [38%] (43%)
  • Chad Taylor (D) 10% {32%} [33%] (33%)
  • Randall Batson (L) 6% {4%} [4%] (5%)
  • Undecided 11% {6%} [10%] (12%)

Survey of 555 likely voters was conducted September 4-7, 2014 for KSN News Wichita. The margin of error is +/- 4.2 percentage points. Party ID: 50% {46%} [56%] (56%) Republican; 30% {32%} [26%] (28%) Democrat; 18% {18%} [18%] (16%) Independent. Ideology: 42% {39%} [38%] (40%) Moderate; 38% {38%} [42%] (39%) Conservative; 14% {14%} [17%] (14%) Liberal. Results from the poll conducted August 20-23, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted July 17-22, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted June 19-23, 2014 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 11:30 am. Filed under 2014, Poll Watch

Poll Watch: Loras College Iowa 2014 Senatorial Survey

Loras College Iowa 2014 Senate Poll 

  • Bruce Braley (D) 45.3% (41.7%)
  • Joni Ernst (R) 40.5% (48.0%)
  • Undecided 14.2% (10.3%)

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

  • Bruce Braley 36.3% (35.8%) / 33.7% (25.7%) {+2.6%}
  • Joni Ernst 36.9% (42.2%) / 39.5% (29.2%) {-2.6%}

Survey of 1,200 likely voters was conducted September 2-5, 2014.  The margin of error is +/- 2.82 percentage points. Party ID: 32.6% (36.0%) Democrat; 30.2% (39.3%) Republican; 33.8% (24.7%) Independent/No party. Results from the poll conducted June 4-5, 2014 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 11:00 am. Filed under 2014, Poll Watch

Poll Watch: Public Opinion Strategies (R) North Carolina 2014 Senatorial Survey

Public Opinion Strategies (R) North Carolina 2014 Senate Poll

  • Thom Tillis (R) 44% (41%)
  • Kay Hagan (D) 44% (44%)
  • Sean Haugh (L) 8% (9%)
  • Undecided 4%

Survey of 600 likely voters was conducted September 2-4, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 4.0 percentage points. Party ID: 41% Democrat; 32% Republican. Race: 72% White; 21% Black; 7% Other. Results from the poll conducted May, 2014 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 10:30 am. Filed under 2014, Poll Watch

Poll Watch: CBS News/New York Times/YouGov South Carolina 2014 Senatorial Survey

CBS News/New York Times/YouGov South Carolina 2014 Senate Poll

  • Tim Scott (R) 54% (54%)
  • Joyce Dickerson (D) 33% (40%)
  • Not sure 13%

Survey of 833 likely voters was conducted August 18 – September 2, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 5.0 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted July 5-24, 2014 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 10:00 am. Filed under 2014, Poll Watch

Poll Watch: CBS News/New York Times/YouGov New Mexico 2014 Senatorial Survey

CBS News/New York Times/YouGov New Mexico 2014 Senate Poll

  • Tom Udall (D) 54% (52%)
  • Allen Weh (R) 36% (44%)
  • Other 2%
  • Not sure 8%

Survey of 1,096 likely voters was conducted August 18 – September 2, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 4.0 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted July 5-24, 2014 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 4:00 am. Filed under 2014, Poll Watch

September 10, 2014

Way Too Early 2016 POWER RANKINGS

1. Rand Paul, U.S. Senator from Kentucky

The junior senator from Kentucky has earned the top spot on these rankings for two reasons; his strong grassroots organization in the early states of Iowa and New Hampshire and the continued troubles of his main establishment rivals. Paul has successfully capitalized on his father’s prior campaigns to gain a strong foothold in the early nominating states. The senator has also benefited from the major problems facing his key opponents. Bridgegate has critically damaged Gov. Chris Christie, immigration reform proved a major setback for Sen. Marco Rubio, and Gov. Scott Walker is currently trailing his Democratic rival for reelection. So serious is Paul’s candidacy that the establishment is looking to old reliables Jeb Bush and Mitt Romney to keep the nomination in their hands. Until the establishment unites behind a candidate, the muddled field and early grassroots work favor Rand Paul.

2. Jeb Bush,  former Governor of Florida

The scion of the Bush dynasty is hinting that he is ready to run for president. Bush would be the most natural candidate for the establishment, and he would command a massive donor base and prominent campaign talent. Like Gov. Romney in 2012, Bush could unite the establishment wing while conservatives divide among multiple candidates. While Rand Paul, Ted Cruz, and Rick Perry fight for Tea Party votes, Bush could follow the Romney path to the nomination. The Bush family’s strength in the south and with evangelical voters would give Jeb advantages that other establishment candidates like McCain and Romney lacked.

3. Marco Rubio, U.S. Senator from Florida

Sen. Rubio has rebounded somewhat from the immigration flap that knocked him down in the eyes of conservatives. His command of foreign policy issues as well as the gravitas he displays when discussing issues like poverty show why his stock was so high in the first place. The Florida senator’s biggest obstacle at this point are the ambitions of his mentor, Gov. Jeb Bush, and it is unlikely that both would seek the nomination. Should Jeb take a pass on the race, Rubio would benefit more than anyone. The historic nature of his candidacy as well as his youth would be strong assets against the Democratic frontrunner, Hillary Clinton.

4. Mitt Romney,  former Governor of Massachusetts

The 2012 Republican nominee is enjoying a bit of a comeback in the eyes of the public of late. The mounting failures of President Barack Obama have left the nation with a feeling of buyer’s remorse. Gov. Romney’s accurate predictions on the problems with Obamacare, the rise of Islamic radicals in Syria and Iraq, and the geopolitical strife caused by Russia have left many wishing he were the president confronting these issues today. Romney’s strengths remain the same; command of the issues, strong name ID, and the strongest fundraising base in the GOP. Should he seek the presidency a third time, he would be the same age as Ronald Reagan during his third run in 1980.

5. Paul Ryan, U.S. Representative from Wisconsin

If any candidate can claim “next in line” status from the 2012 election, it would be Rep. Paul Ryan. Ryan is still a very popular figure in conservative circles, and fears over how his budget would be portrayed never really panned out in 2012. Ryan would have the advantage of having been in a national campaign before and would likely have access to Mitt Romney’s formidable donor base. His wonkish style needs polish on the campaign trail, but his reputation as an “ideas man” could boost him over his more reactionary rivals.

6. Chris Christie, Governor of New Jersey

Gov. Chris Christie’s prospects have taken a beating since a scandal erupted surrounding the closing of access lanes to the George Washington Bridge earlier this year. The governor has stopped the bleeding, and still retains solid approval numbers for a blue state Republican. He has also shattered fundraising records as head of the RGA, proving he is still a major draw to the GOP donor class. Christie still commands the media stage and could unite the establishment wing of the party, but the continued investigation into Bridgegate by U.S. Attorney Paul Fishman (a Clinton donor) remains a dark cloud over his head.

7. Ted Cruz, U.S. Senator from Texas

The junior senator from Texas has emerged a the Tea Party favorite for 2016. Cruz’s conservative credentials combined with a more hawkish foreign policy gives him the chance to win over voters nervous about the isolationist tendencies of Rand Paul. His early trips to Iowa have been met with rave reviews, and his eloquence and debating skills will make him far stronger than any other Tea Party type who has stepped on to the national stage.

8. Mike Pence, Governor of Indiana

The Indiana governor has quietly begun testing the waters for 2016 and with good reason; he is one of the few republicans admired by establishment, Tea Party, and social conservatives. Pence’s record as a congressman earned him fiscal conservative praise second only to Paul Ryan, and his passionate but friendly defense of social conservatism reminds many observers of the charms of former Gov. Mike Huckabee. Pence’s low name ID and weak fundraising base are early obstacles, but he has the resume and record to go from dark horse to contender in a hurry.

9. John Kasich, Governor of Ohio

Ohio Gov. John Kasich battled the public sector unions in his state with far less fanfare (and some would argue less success) than his Wisconsin counterpart. But unlike Gov. Scott Walker, Kasich is poised for a massive reelection, leading his Democratic rival by 19% in the latest poll. A landslide in a state as crucial as Ohio, site of the 2016 Republican National Convention, combined with a resume that includes success as governor and as a congressman puts Kasich in a strong position to make a run.

10. Scott Walker, Governor of Wisconsin

The governor of Wisconsin has become a folk hero to many in the conservative base for his stand against public sector unions in his state. The left’s attempt to recall Scott Walker not only backfired, but helped the governor build a national donor base. Walker will have real conservative governance to run on, as well as a record of being battle-tested against the left’s attack machine. The only problem facing Walker now is….he’s losing. In the three most recent polls Walker trails Democratic nominee Mary Burke. With the GOP poised to take the senate, Democrat donors are turning to Wisconsin as a place to salvage a victory. Walker’s difficulty getting reelected has robbed him of the chance to travel to early states and build on his momentum, and a loss in an otherwise GOP year would finish him as a national candidate.

Honorable Mention:  Mike Huckabee, Rick Santorum, Rick Perry, Rob Portman, Ben Carson, Bobby Jindal

 

by @ 10:06 am. Filed under 2016, 2016 Headlines

September 9, 2014

Poll Watch: CBS News/New York Times/YouGov Tennessee 2014 Senatorial Survey

CBS News/New York Times/YouGov Tennessee 2014 Senate Poll

  • Lamar Alexander (R) 47% (48%)
  • Gordon Ball (D) 32% (33%)
  • Other 10%
  • Not sure 11%

Survey of 1,056 likely voters was conducted August 18 – September 2, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 4.0 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted July 5-24, 2014 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 2:30 pm. Filed under 2014, Poll Watch

Poll Watch: CBS News/New York Times/YouGov Mississippi 2014 Senatorial Survey

CBS News/New York Times/YouGov Mississippi 2014 Senate Poll

  • Thad Cochran (R) 46% (47%)
  • Travis Childers (D) 31% (33%)
  • Other 9%
  • Not sure 15%

Survey of 976 likely voters was conducted August 18 – September 2, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 4.0 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted July 5-24, 2014 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 2:00 pm. Filed under 2014, Poll Watch

Poll Watch: CBS News/New York Times/YouGov West Virginia 2014 Senatorial Survey

CBS News/New York Times/YouGov West Virginia 2014 Senate Poll

  • Shelley Moore Capito (R) 55% (51%)
  • Natalie Tennant (D) 32% (43%)
  • Other 1%
  • Not sure 12%

Survey of 1,284 likely voters was conducted August 18 – September 2, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 4.0 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted July 5-24, 2014 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 1:30 pm. Filed under 2014, Poll Watch

Poll Watch: CBS News/New York Times/YouGov Delaware 2014 Senatorial Survey

  • Chris Coons (D) 48%
  • Kevin Wade (R) 35%
  • Other 1%
  • Not sure 16%

Survey of 697 likely voters was conducted August 18 – September 2, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 5.0 percentage points.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 1:00 pm. Filed under 2014, Poll Watch

Poll Watch: CBS News/New York Times/YouGov Montana 2014 Senatorial Survey

  • Steve Daines (R) 53%
  • Amanda Curtis (D) 35%
  • Other 1%
  • Not sure 11%

Survey of 684 likely voters was conducted August 18 – September 2, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 5.0 percentage points.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 12:30 pm. Filed under 2014, Poll Watch

Poll Watch: CBS News/New York Times/YouGov New Jersey 2014 Senatorial Survey

  • Cory Booker (D) 52% (50%)
  • Jeff Bell (R) 37% (43%)
  • Other 2%
  • Not sure 10%

Survey of 2,244 likely voters was conducted August 18 – September 2, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 3.0 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted July 5-24, 2014 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 12:00 pm. Filed under 2014, Poll Watch

Poll Watch: CBS News/New York Times/YouGov South Dakota 2014 Senatorial Survey

  • Mike Rounds (R) 43% (61%)
  • Rick Weiland (D) 29% (34%)
  • Larry Pressler (I) 6%
  • Other 1%
  • Not sure 21%

Survey of 526 likely voters was conducted August 18 – September 2, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 6.0 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted July 5-24, 2014 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 11:30 am. Filed under 2014, Poll Watch

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