August 20, 2014

Poll Watch: Rasmussen Montana 2014 Senatorial Survey

Rasmussen Montana 2014 Senate Poll

  • Steve Daines (R) 55%
  • Amanda Curtis (D) 35%

Survey of 750 likely voters was conducted August 18-19, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points. 

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 12:35 pm. Filed under 2014, Poll Watch

Poll Watch: SurveyUSA Florida 2014 Gubernatorial Survey

SurveyUSA Florida 2014 Gubernatorial Poll

  • Rick Scott (R) 44% {45%} [40%] (45%) {42%} [40%] (42%){41%} [41%] (41%)
  • Charlie Crist (D) 41% {43%} [46%] (43%) {41%} [44%] (40%){44%} [44%] (46%)
  • Adrian Wyllie (L) 4%

Survey of likely voters was released August 19, 2014 for WFLA-TV.  The margin of error is +/- 4.2 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted July 31 – August 4, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted July 17-21, 2014 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted June 30 – July 2, 2014 are in parentheses.Results from the poll conducted June 20-23, 2014 are in curly brackets.Results from the poll conducted June 5-10, 2014 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 20-22, 2014 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted May 9-12, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll released April 29, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted April 10-14, 2014 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 8:00 am. Filed under 2014, Poll Watch

Poll Watch: PPP (D) North Carolina 2014 Senatorial Survey

PPP (D) North Carolina 2014 Senate Poll

  • Kay Hagan (D) 42% (41%) [39%] {38%} (43%) [45%] {40%} (42%) [44%] {44%}
  • Thom Tillis (R) 38% (34%) [34%] {36%} (41%) [43%] {42%} (43%) [42%] {42%}
  • Sean Haugh (L) 8% (8%) [11%] {11%}

Among Men

  • Thom Tillis (R) 44% (42%) [39%] {42%} (42%) [50%] {47%} (48%) [45%] {48%}
  • Kay Hagan (D) 38% (38%) [39%] {36%} (47%) [42%] {42%} (43%) [43%] {42%}
  • Sean Haugh (L) 9% (9%) [10%] {12%}

Among Women

  • Kay Hagan (D) 45% (44%) [39%] {40%} (39%) [47%] {39%} (41%) [46%] {46%}
  • Thom Tillis (R) 32% (27%) [29%] {31%} (40%) [37%] {38%}(39%) [40%] {37%}
  • Sean Haugh (L) 7% (8%) [12%] {10%}

Horse race, with Haugh supporters allocated to whether they would vote for Hagan or Tillis

  • Kay Hagan (D) 43% (42%) [42%] {41%}
  • Thom Tillis (R) 42% (39%) [38%] {41%}

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

  • Sean Haugh 8% (7%) / 17% (20%) {-9%}
  • Thom Tillis 28% (24%) [23%] {30%} (20%) [18%] {15%} (15%) [12%] {16%} / 48% (47%) [45%] {46%} (39%) [37%] {29%} (28%) [30%] {28%} {-20%}

Do you approve or disapprove Senator Kay Hagan’s job performance?

  • Approve 42% (40%) [42%] {38%} (41%) [41%] {41%} (39%) [43%] {44%}
  • Disapprove 49% (50%) [46%] {49%} (48%) [50%] {50%} (49%) [49%] {49%}

Survey of 856 likely voters was conducted August 14-17, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 3.4 percentage points. Party ID: 42% (44%) [43%] {42%} (42%) [42%] {39%} [43%] {45%} Democrat; 31% (34%) [36%] {35%} (36%) [35%] {34%} [34%] {33%} Republican; 27% (22%) [22%] {23%} (22%) [23%] {27%} [23%] {21%} Independent/Other.  Results from the poll conducted July 17-20, 2014 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted June 12-15, 2014 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 9-11, 2014 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 3-6, 2014 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted March 6-9, 2014 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 6-9, 2014 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 9-12, 2014 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted December 5-8, 2013 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 8-11, 2013 are in curly brackets.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 4:00 am. Filed under 2014, Poll Watch

August 19, 2014

Political Torture — Obama style

The old cliche about demise from a thousand cuts comes from an ancient Chinese torture. What’s happening to the Democratic Party today, defeat by a million failures, is caused by its own torture of public policies.

Initially it was thought that the 2014 midterm elections might go badly for the current ruling party because a major policy failure such as Obamacare alone would turn voters against it, as happened in 2010. If that were so, the Democrats might have repaired their position by compromising on healthcare reform and accepted some Republican changes to the law so preemptively passed by the Democratic Congress in 2010, and signed by the president. With the U.S. house of representatives controlled by the Republican (since 2011), this could have indeed happened, but I’m not so sure it would have substantially changed the growing voter mood against the president and his party. The growing negative voter mood appears to be arising from a myriad of failures.

It is now very clear that Barack Obama and those around him had in mind some very radical changes in public policy when they took office in January, 2009, and began to implement them. With a Republican U.S. house and public opinion resisting them, however, they have been blocked from many of their changes. At the same time, using executive orders, they put into effect many others, particularly a steady stream of regulations, some of which are choking small businesses across the nation. The U.S. supreme court has already ruled that one of Mr. Obama’s executive presumptions was unconstitutional, and it’s quite possible it will do the same for others, including an unprecedented suit against him by Speaker of the House John Boehner.

The point is that voters voted against Obamacare in 2010 as an abstraction, that is, as something they intuitively felt could not work. In 2014, Obamacare is a reality, and touches millions of Americans. It is true that the reform benefits some Americans without any previous health insurance, but at the same time many more Americans are observing the cost of their health insurance going up, their benefits reduced, their healthcare access limited, and the whole medical/hospital industry in worrisome turmoil. (And now there are reports that perhaps up to 30% of those who signed up for Obamacare are no longer making payments and thus are opting out of the system.)

Raising the minimum wage does benefit some workers. But the impact on American business is already becoming evident, as prices rise where possible, workers lose their jobs when raising prices is not feasible, and in cases where neither can be done, enterprises are simply going out of business. More serious than this one policy is the plethora of new regulations cascading out of Washington. Not all of these regulations are bad ones, but many of them are punitive, unnecessary, and unmanageable. Many more Americans feel the negative aspects of these policies than realize their alleged benefits.

Raising taxes does, in the short term, raise some revenue, especially revenue for increased government intrusion in the market place. In the long term, however, raising taxes inhibits growth and healthy infusion of revenue into the economic system. Moreover, the middle class (where most independent voters are) feels the brunt of higher taxes, and are forced to reduce their spending (which in turn, deflates the economy).

Centralized and bureaucratic government is a mainstay of liberal politics. Its rationale is that government is a better steward of the public good. In reality, this has rarely proven to be true, particularly as democratic societies mature. Built into the U.S. constitution is a balance between the rights and duties of states and those of the federal government. At the turn of the 20th century, particularly just after World War I, a series of problems and public projects were resolved by substantially increasing the federal role (e.g. Hoover Dam in the Far West, the Great Flood of 1927 in the Midwest), and this only increased significantly during the Great Depression. American society has changed much since then, however, and the rationale for so much centralized government, it can be persuasively argued, has diminished.

Today, millions of Americans living in rural areas, small towns, exurbs and suburbs feel the intrusion of Washington, DC first hand. It does not matter which political party they have felt part of in the past. In fact, I think it is fair to say that the great recent rise in the number of independent voters live in these places.

Most of these independents voted for Barack Obama in 2008, and many (but less) of them voted for him again in 2012. The polls indicate that they would not vote for him again, nor for his party. These voters are not happy. They are not happy at all. They don’t have to admit publicly, however, that they made a mistake in 2008 and 2012. All they have to do is vote against Democrats in 2014.

And that is what they seem increasingly likely to do.

———————————————————————————
Copyright (c) 2014 by Barry Casselman. All rights reserved.

by @ 4:44 pm. Filed under 2014, Campaign Issues, Obamacare, The Campaign Trail

Poll Watch: SurveyUSA Georgia 2014 Senatorial Survey

  • David Perdue (R) 50% (43%)
  • Michelle Nunn (D) 41% (38%)
  • Amanda Swafford (L) 3% (6%)
  • Undecided 6% (14%)

Among Men

  • David Perdue (R) 56% (50%)
  • Michelle Nunn (D) 37% (33%)
  • Amanda Swafford (L) 2% (6%)
  • Undecided 4% (11%)

Among Women 

  • Michelle Nunn (D) 46% (44%)
  • David Perdue (R) 44% (35%)
  • Amanda Swafford (L) 3% (5%)
  • Undecided 7% (16%)

Survey of 560 likely voters was conducted August 14-17, 2014 for WXIA-TV Atlanta.  The margin of error is +/- 4.2 percentage points.  Party ID: 40% (38%) Republican; 38% (35%) Democrat; 21% (25%) Independent.  Ideology: 44% (40%) Conservative; 38% (38%) Moderate; 13% (15%) Liberal.  Gender: (53%) Male; (47%) Female.  Race: 63% (65%) White; 26% (24%) Black; 7% (7%) Hispanic. Results from the poll conducted June 3-5, 2014 are in parentheses

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 10:30 am. Filed under 2014, Poll Watch

Poll Watch: Rasmussen President Obama Job Approval Survey

Rasmussen President Obama Job Approval Poll 

How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as president?

  • Strongly approve 23%
  • Somewhat approve 24%
  • Somewhat disapprove 12%
  • Strongly disapprove 40%

President Obama Job Approval

  • Approve 47%
  • Disapprove 52%

Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 500 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. To reach those who have abandoned traditional landline telephones, Rasmussen Reports uses an online survey tool to interview randomly selected participants from a demographically diverse panel. The margin of sampling error for the full sample of 1,500 Likely Voters is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

by @ 10:28 am. Filed under 2014, Barack Obama, Poll Watch

August 18, 2014

Poll Watch: InsiderAdvantage/Opinion Savvy (R) Georgia 2014 Senate Survey

InsiderAdvantage/Opinion Savvy (R) Georgia 2014 Senate Poll

  • David Perdue (R) 47%
  • Michelle Nunn (D) 40%
  • Amanda Swafford (L) 8%
  • Undecided 5% 

Survey of 719 likely GOP primary voters was conducted August 12-13, 2014.  The margin of error is +/- 3.7 percentage points.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 4:23 pm. Filed under 2014, Poll Watch

Poll Watch: Rasmussen Minnesota 2014 Senatorial Survey

Rasmussen Minnesota 2014 Senate Poll

  • Al Franken (D) 50%
  • Mike McFadden (R) 42%
  • Some other candidate 2%
  • Undecided 6%

Survey of 750 likely voters was conducted August 13-14, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 12:17 pm. Filed under 2014, Poll Watch

Poll Watch: Quinnipiac New Jersey 2014 Senatorial Survey

Quinnipiac New Jersey 2014 Senate Poll

  • Cory Booker (D) 47%
  • Jeff Bell (R) 37%

Among Independents 

  • Cory Booker (D) 42%
  • Jeff Bell (R) 34%

Among Men

  • Jeff Bell (R) 42%
  • Cory Booker (D) 40%

Among Women 

  • Cory Booker (D) 53%
  • Jeff Bell (R) 32%

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

  • Cory Booker 47% / 27% {+20%}
  • Jeff Bell 16% / 5% {+11%}

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Cory Booker is handling his job as United States Senator?

  • Approve 47%
  • Disapprove 27%

Do you feel that Cory Booker deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected?

  • Yes/Deserves 48%
  • No/Does not 31%

Survey of 1,148 registered voters was conducted July 31 – August 4, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 2.9 percentage points.  Party ID: 34%Democrat; 24% Republican; 35% Independent; 7% Other/Don’t know.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 10:23 am. Filed under 2014, Poll Watch

Poll Watch: Rasmussen President Obama Job Approval Survey

Rasmussen President Obama Job Approval Poll 

How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as president?

  • Strongly approve 21%
  • Somewhat approve 27%
  • Somewhat disapprove 10%
  • Strongly disapprove 41%

President Obama Job Approval

  • Approve 48%
  • Disapprove 51%

Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 500 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. To reach those who have abandoned traditional landline telephones, Rasmussen Reports uses an online survey tool to interview randomly selected participants from a demographically diverse panel. The margin of sampling error for the full sample of 1,500 Likely Voters is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

by @ 10:21 am. Filed under 2014, Barack Obama, Poll Watch

August 17, 2014

Poll Watch: Rasmussen Wisconsin 2014 Gubernatorial Survey

Rasmussen Wisconsin 2014 Gubernatorial Poll

  • Scott Walker (R) 48% (45%)
  • Mary Burke (D) 47% (45%)

Survey of 750 likely voters was conducted August 13-14, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted March 10-11, 2014 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 11:19 am. Filed under 2014, Poll Watch, Scott Walker

Poll Watch: Rasmussen President Obama Job Approval Survey

Rasmussen President Obama Job Approval Poll 

How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as president?

  • Strongly approve 21%
  • Somewhat approve 25%
  • Somewhat disapprove 10%
  • Strongly disapprove 42%

President Obama Job Approval

  • Approve 46%
  • Disapprove 52%

Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 500 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. To reach those who have abandoned traditional landline telephones, Rasmussen Reports uses an online survey tool to interview randomly selected participants from a demographically diverse panel. The margin of sampling error for the full sample of 1,500 Likely Voters is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

by @ 11:17 am. Filed under 2014, Barack Obama, Poll Watch

August 16, 2014

Poll Watch: Rasmussen President Obama Job Approval Survey

Rasmussen President Obama Job Approval Poll 

How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as president?

  • Strongly approve 21%
  • Somewhat approve 25%
  • Somewhat disapprove 10%
  • Strongly disapprove 42%

President Obama Job Approval

  • Approve 46%
  • Disapprove 52%

Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 500 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. To reach those who have abandoned traditional landline telephones, Rasmussen Reports uses an online survey tool to interview randomly selected participants from a demographically diverse panel. The margin of sampling error for the full sample of 1,500 Likely Voters is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

by @ 12:26 pm. Filed under 2014, Barack Obama, Poll Watch

August 15, 2014

Poll Watch: Rutgers-Eagleton New Jersey Survey on Governor Chris Christie

Rutgers-Eagleton New Jersey Poll on Gov. Chris Christie

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Chris Christie is handling his job as governor?  

  • Approve 52% (55%) {55%} [53%] (68%) {67%} [66%] (70%) {68%} [73%] (67%)
  • Disapprove 41% (41%) {39%} [41%] (26%) {29%} [31%] (25%) {26%} [23%] (26%)

Among Democrats 

  • Approve 31% (29%) {34%} [29%] (51%) {46%} [50%] (56%) {51%} [62%] (49%)
  • Disapprove 60% (67%) {60%} [64%] (41%) {47%} [45%] (39%) {42%} [31%] (39%)

Among Republicans 

  • Approve 78% (86%) {83%} [83%] (93%) {91%} [89%] (87%) {93%} [90%] (88%)
  • Disapprove 17% (10%) {12%} [13%] (6%) {8%} [10%] (9%) {5%} [10%] (8%)

Among Independents

  • Approve 57% (62%) {58%} [60%] (71%) {74%} [70%] (77%) {75%} [75%] (76%)
  • Disapprove 37% (34%) {36%} [33%] (24%) {21%} [26%] (18%) {20%} [21%] (20%)

Among Moderates 

  • Approve 53% (57%) [53%] (71%) {65%} [69%] (73%) {70%} [75%] (68%)
  • Disapprove 40% (39%) [40%] (23%) {30%} [27%] (22%) {25%} [20%] (25%)

Please tell me if your general impression of Governor Chris Christie is favorable or unfavorable.

  • Favorable 49% (50%) {49%} [46%] (65%) {61%} [60%] (64%) {64%} [70%] (67%) {48%} [49%] (50%) {46%} [47%] (49%) {49%} [45%] (44%) {46%} [45%] (46%) {46%} [45%]
  • Unfavorable 40% (42%) {40%} [43%] (27%) {28%} [32%] (26%) {26%} [20%] (25%) {42%} [40%] (39%) {42%} [42%] (37%) {39%} [47%] (42%) {44%} [38%] (42%) {39%} [26%]

Among Democrats 

  • Favorable 28% (25%) {28%} [19%] (45%) {38%} [43%] (48%) {45%} [59%] (49%) {22%} [25%] (27%) {28%} [22%] {26%} [20%] (18%) {24%}
  • Unfavorable 59% (63%) {60%} [69%] (47%) {49%} [47%](41%) {41%} [29%] (38%) {68%} [62%] (62%) {61%} [63%] {63%} [72%] (65%) {67%}

Among Republicans 

  • Favorable 79% (82%) {81%} [78%] (92%) {90%} [87%] (86%) {90%} [88%] (90%) {88%} [84%] (79%) {85%} [81%] {87%} [82%] (79%) {76%}
  • Unfavorable 16% (13%) {12%} [15%] (5%) {6%} [10%] (12%) {6%} [5%] (8%) {8%} [9%] (12%) {8%} [14%] {10%} [11%] (16%) {19%}

Among Independents

  • Favorable 52% (55%) {49%} [55%] (69%) {68%} [64%] (69%) {71%} [71%] (73%) {49%} [48%] (55%) {43%} [52%] {52%} [47%] (49%) {50%}
  • Unfavorable 37% (37%) {38%} [33%] (22%) {20%} [26%] (16%) {19%} [20%] (19%) {36%} [40%] (32%) {42%} [37%] {33%} [45%] (35%) {37%}

Survey of 750 registered voters was conducted July 28 – August 5, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 3.5 percentage points.  Party ID: 33% (36%) {36%} [39%] (36%) {39%} [40%] (41%) {41%} [39%] (43%) {38%} [35%] (37%) {39%} [37%] {35%} [31%] (36%) {35%} Democrat; 20% (21%) {23%} [19%] (21%) {21%} [21%] (22%) {19%} [22%] (22%) {24%} [24%] (22%) {21%} [20%] {18%} [19%] (22%) {23%} Republican; 47% (43%) {41%} [42%] (42%) {40%} [38%] (37%) {40%} [40%] (35%) {38%} [41%] (41%) {40%} [43%] {47%} [50%] (42%) {42%} Independent.  Results from the poll conducted March 31 – April 6, 2014 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted February 22-28, 2014 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 14-19, 2014 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted October 28 – November 2, 2013 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted October 7-13, 2013 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted September 3-9, 2013 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted June 3-9, 2013 are in parentheses.Results from the poll conducted April 3-7, 2013 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted January 30 – February 3, 2013 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted November 14-17, 2012 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted September 27-30, 2012 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted August 23-25, 2012 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted May 31 – June 4, 2012 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted March 21-27, 2012 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted February 9-11, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 9-12, 2011 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted October 6-9, 2011 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted August 9-15, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 28 – April 4, 2011 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted February 24-26, 2011 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted October, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September, 2010 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted August, 2010 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted February, 2010 are in square brackets.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 9:29 am. Filed under 2016, Chris Christie, Poll Watch

Poll Watch: Rasmussen President Obama Job Approval Survey

Rasmussen President Obama Job Approval Poll 

How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as president?

  • Strongly approve 21%
  • Somewhat approve 24%
  • Somewhat disapprove 12%
  • Strongly disapprove 41%

President Obama Job Approval

  • Approve 45%
  • Disapprove 53%

Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 500 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. To reach those who have abandoned traditional landline telephones, Rasmussen Reports uses an online survey tool to interview randomly selected participants from a demographically diverse panel. The margin of sampling error for the full sample of 1,500 Likely Voters is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

by @ 9:28 am. Filed under 2014, Barack Obama, Poll Watch

August 14, 2014

Poll Watch: Rasmussen President Obama Job Approval Survey

Rasmussen President Obama Job Approval Poll 

How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as president?

  • Strongly approve 21%
  • Somewhat approve 24%
  • Somewhat disapprove 13%
  • Strongly disapprove 40%

President Obama Job Approval

  • Approve 45%
  • Disapprove 53%

Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 500 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. To reach those who have abandoned traditional landline telephones, Rasmussen Reports uses an online survey tool to interview randomly selected participants from a demographically diverse panel. The margin of sampling error for the full sample of 1,500 Likely Voters is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

by @ 8:29 pm. Filed under 2014, Barack Obama, Poll Watch

Poll Watch: PPP (D) Kentucky 2016 Republican Primary Survey

PPP (D) Kentucky 2016 GOP Primary Poll

  • Rand Paul 25% [34%] (31%)
  • Mike Huckabee 18%
  • Jeb Bush 15% [20%] (13%)
  • Chris Christie 8% [12%] (10%)
  • Marco Rubio 8% [5%] (17%)
  • Ted Cruz 7% [7%]
  • Scott Walker 5% [2%]
  • Paul Ryan 4% [5%] (3%)
  • Bobby Jindal 3% [3%] (4%)
  • Someone else/Not sure 6% [10%] (16%)

Among Men

  • Rand Paul 27% [36%] (33%)
  • Mike Huckabee 20%
  • Chris Christie 10% [14%] (10%)
  • Jeb Bush 10% [17%] (13%)
  • Marco Rubio 8% [6%] (21%)
  • Scott Walker 7% [2%]
  • Ted Cruz 6% [6%]
  • Paul Ryan 4% [6%] (3%)
  • Bobby Jindal 3% [3%] (6%)
  • Someone else/Not sure 4% [8%] (11%)

Among Women

  • Rand Paul 23% [32%] (30%)
  • Jeb Bush 20% [23%] (14%)
  • Mike Huckabee 16%
  • Ted Cruz 9% [8%]
  • Marco Rubio 7% [4%] (13%)
  • Chris Christie 4% [11%] (10%)
  • Bobby Jindal 4% [3%] (3%)
  • Paul Ryan 4% [4%] (3%)
  • Scott Walker 4% [1%]
  • Someone else/Not sure 9% [13%] (20%)

Survey of 383 Republican primary voters was conducted August 7-10, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 5.0 percentage points. Political ideology: 38% [35%] (34%) Somewhat conservative; 37% [36%](37%) Very conservative; 19% [20%] (19%) Moderate; 3% [6%] (8%) Somewhat liberal; 3% [3%] (2%) Very liberal. Results from the poll conducted December 12-15, 2013 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 5-7, 2013 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 3:15 pm. Filed under 2016, Poll Watch, Rand Paul

Poll Watch: PPP (D) Kentucky 2016 Presidential Survey

PPP (D) Kentucky 2016 Presidential Poll 

  • Rand Paul (R) 49% {49%} [45%] (42%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 43% {43%} [45%] (47%)
  • Jeb Bush (R) 48% {46%}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 43% {42%}
  • Mike Huckabee (R) 47%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 44%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 44% {40%}
  • Chris Christie (R) 41% {44%}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 46% {44%}
  • Ted Cruz (R) 41% {41%} 

Among Men

  • Rand Paul (R) 56% {53%} [52%] (44%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 37% {40%} [40%] (42%)
  • Jeb Bush (R) 54% {51%}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 37% {38%}
  • Mike Huckabee (R) 55%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 37% 
  • Chris Christie (R) 47% {48%}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 39% {36%}
  • Ted Cruz (R) 50% {48%}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 40% {41%}

Among Women 

  • Hillary Clinton (D) 48% {46%} [50%] (51%)
  • Rand Paul (R) 43% {45%} [39%] (40%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 48% {46%}
  • Jeb Bush (R) 42% {42%}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 50% 
  • Mike Huckabee (R) 40%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 48% {43%}
  • Chris Christie (R) 36% {41%}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 51% {47%}
  • Ted Cruz (R) 34% {34%}

Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Rand Paul’s job performance? 

  • Approve 47% {49%} [46%] (43%)
  • Disapprove 39% {40%} [39%] (39%)  

Do you think Rand Paul should run for President in 2016, or not? 

  • He should run 34% {35%} [30%]
  • He should not 50% {49%} [50%] 

Survey of 991 Kentucky voters was conducted August 7-10, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 3.1 percentage points. Party ID: 52% {52%} [51%] (52%) Democrat; 38% {39%} [39%] (37%) Republican; 10% {9%} [10%] (11%) Independent/Other. Political ideology: 28% {31%} [28%] (29%) Moderate; 25% {27%} [26%] (24%) Somewhat conservative; 20% {19%} [20%] (23%) Very conservative; 17% {14%}[15%] (15%) Somewhat liberal; 10% {9%} [10%] (9%) Very liberal. Results from the poll conducted December 12-15, 2013 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 5-7, 2013 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted December 7-9, 2012 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 11:30 am. Filed under 2016, Hillary Clinton, Jeb Bush, Poll Watch, Rand Paul, Ted Cruz

Poll Watch: McClatchy-Marist 2016 National Presidential Survey

  • Hillary Clinton (D) 47% {53%} [58%] (50%) {48%} [47%] (46%)
  • Chris Christie (R) 41% {42%} [37%] (37%) {45%} [41%] (43%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 48% {54%} [58%] {55%} [50%] (52%)
  • Rand Paul (R) 42% {40%} [38%] {40%} [38%] (41%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 48% {55%} [58%] {53%} [48%] (54%)
  • Jeb Bush (R) 41% {39%} [38%] {41%} [40%] (38%)

National survey of 806 registered voters was conducted August 4, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 3.5 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted April 7-10, 2014 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 4-9, 2014 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 12-14, 2014 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted December 3-5, 2013 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 15-18, 2013 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted March 25-27, 2013 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 10:45 am. Filed under 2016, Hillary Clinton, Poll Watch

Poll Watch: McClatchy-Marist 2016 Republican Nomination Survey

McClatchy-Marist 2016 GOP Nomination Poll 

  • Jeb Bush 13% [13%] (8%) {8%} [10%] (10%)
  • Chris Christie 13% [12%] (13%) {16%} [18%] (15%)
  • Ted Cruz 10% [4%] (5%) {5%} [10%] (7%)
  • Paul Ryan 9% [12%] (9%) {12%} [11%] (13%)
  • Marco Rubio 9% [7%] (12%) {7%} [7%] (12%)
  • Rick Perry 7% [3%] (2%) {6%} [3%] (4%)
  • Rand Paul 7% [12%] (9%) {9%} [12%] (9%)
  • Scott Walker 4% [5%] (7%) {4%} [4%] (2%)
  • Rick Santorum 3% [3%] (2%) {5%} [4%] (2%)
  • Bobby Jindal 2% [4%] {3%} (1%)
  • Undecided 23% [14%] (12%) {25%} [13%] (25%)

Survey of 342 registered Republicans and GOP-leaning Independents was conducted August 4, 2014The margin of error is +/- 5.3 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted April 7-10, 2014 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 4-9, 2014 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted January 12-14, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted December 3-5, 2013 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 15-18, 2013 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 10:00 am. Filed under 2016, Chris Christie, Jeb Bush, Poll Watch

August 13, 2014

Poll Watch: PPP (D) Alaska 2016 Republican Primary Survey

PPP (D) Alaska 2016 GOP Primary Poll

  • Ted Cruz 16% (15%) {13%} [8%]
  • Rand Paul 15% (11%) {15%} [18%] (12%)
  • Mike Huckabee 14% (11%) {11%} (14%)
  • Chris Christie 12% (14%) {10%} [13%] (11%)
  • Jeb Bush 12% (14%) {12%} [11%] (9%)
  • Sarah Palin 11% (12%) {13%} [14%] (9%)
  • Scott Walker 7% (4%) {4%}
  • Paul Ryan 6% (4%) {4%} [9%] (10%)
  • Marco Rubio 5% (3%) {6%} [9%] (18%)
  • Someone else/Not sure 4% (12%) {12%} [12%] (10%)

Do you think Sarah Palin should run for President in 2016, or not?

  • Think she should run 21%
  • Think she should not 72%

Survey of 337 Republican primary voters was conducted July 31 – August 3, 2014.  The margin of error is +/- 5.3 percentage points. Political ideology: 36% (31%) {33%} [37%] Somewhat conservative;33% (38%) {37%} [ 33%] Very conservative; 24% (22%) {23%} [24%] Moderate; 5% (4%) {5%} [4%] Somewhat liberal; 2% (5%) {2%} [2%] Very liberalResults from the poll conducted May 8-11, 2014 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted January 30 – February 1, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted July 25-28, 2013 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 4-5, 2013 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 1:15 pm. Filed under 2016, Poll Watch, Sarah Palin, Ted Cruz

Poll Watch: PPP (D) Alaska 2016 Presidential Survey

  • Rand Paul (R) 50% (46%) {47%} [49%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 36% (40%) {41%} [43%]
  • Chris Christie (R) 45% (44%) {43%} [46%] (43%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 34% (41%) {39%} [38%] (42%)
  • Jeb Bush (R) 47% (47%) {47%} [49%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 38% (41%) {39%} [42%]
  • Mike Huckabee (R) 47% (43%) {45%}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 39% (42%) {41%}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 46% (44%) {44%} [49%] (53%)
  • Sarah Palin (R) 40% (41%) {43%} [40%] (37%)

Among Men

  • Rand Paul (R) 57% (55%) {55%} [58%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 33% (34%) {35%} [34%]
  • Chris Christie (R) 50% (51%) {49%} [51%] (50%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 28% (33%) {34%} [31%] (35%)
  • Jeb Bush (R) 49% (58%) {54%} [59%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 33% (32%) {33%} [31%]
  • Mike Huckabee (R) 49% (51%) {51%}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 36% (36%) {35%}
  • Sarah Palin (R) 45% (50%) {49%} [48%] (43%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 42% (34%) {37%} [39%] (46%)

Among Women 

  • Rand Paul (R) 44% (39%) {41%} [42%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 39% (46%) {46%} [50%]
  • Chris Christie (R) 41% (37%) {38%} [43%] (38%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 40% (48%) {44%} [45%] (47%)
  • Jeb Bush (R) 45% (37%) {40%} [40%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 42% (48%) {45%} [52%]
  • Mike Huckabee (R) 45% (37%) {40%}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 41% (47%) {47%}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 50% (54%) {50%} [58%] (60%)
  • Sarah Palin (R) 36% (32%) {38%} [34%] (31%)

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Sarah Palin?

  • Favorable 36% (36%) {39%} [39%] (34%)
  • Unfavorable 55% (56%) {55%} [58%] (59%)
Do you think Sarah Palin should run for President in 2016, or not?

  • She should run 20% (19%) {23%} [18%] (16%)
  • She should not 74% (74%) {69%} [77%] (78%)

Survey of 673 Alaska voters was conducted July 31 – August 3, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 3.8 percentage points.  Party ID: 32% (29%) {33%} [32%] (32%) Republican; 20% (18%) {20%} [20%] (21%) Democrat; 47% (53%) {46%} [48%] (46%) Independent/Other.  Ideology: 33% (31%) {32%} [30%] (33%) Moderate; 25% (21%) {23%}[25%] (25%) Somewhat conservative; 18% (22%) {21%} [20%] (19%) Very conservative; 16% (16%) {16%} [17%] (15%) Somewhat liberal; 8% (9%) {7%} [8%] (9%) Very liberal. Results from the poll conducted May 8-11, 2014 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted January 30 – February 1, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted July 25-28, 2013 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 4-5, 2013 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 12:45 pm. Filed under 2016, Poll Watch

Poll Watch: Rasmussen Iowa 2014 Senatorial Survey

  • Joni Ernst (R) 43% [45%] (37%)
  • Bruce Braley (D) 43% [44%] (40%)
  • Some other candidate 6% [3%]
  • Undecided 8% [9%]

Survey of 750 likely voters was conducted August 11-12, 2014.  The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted June 4-5, 2014 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 24-25, 2014 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 12:00 pm. Filed under 2014, Poll Watch

August 12, 2014

The Big Lie: George W. Bush Caused the Rise of ISIS

The Big Lie in the debate over the chaos unfolding in Iraq is that somehow, the rise of ISIS would not be occurring were it not for President George W. Bush’s ostensibly indefensible ‘war of choice’; that by removing Saddam Hussein and participating in an ill-fated ‘nation-building’ project, we fostered instability and created a vacuum for ISIS — now called the Islamic State — to fill. Take away the Iraq War (and bring back Saddam Hussein), and, according to the likes of David Axelrod, we wouldn’t have to deal with this problem, since it wouldn’t exist.

It is simply a lie. Saddam Hussein, one of history’s bloodiest tyrants, was never a source of stability, and, unlike other former Arab autocrats like Egypt’s Hosni Mubarak, he was never ‘our bastard’; he was a longtime geopolitical nemesis and a clear threat to peace for as long as he remained in power. Saddam Hussein invaded two of his neighbors, fired SCUD missiles at a third, used chemical weapons on Iraq’s Kurdish minority, and funded regional terrorism. In 1998, President Bill Clinton signed the bipartisan Iraq Liberation Act into law, making regime change the official stance of the United States toward Iraq. (As non-interventionists never tire of pointing out, yes, we did cooperate with Saddam Hussein — once, in the 1980s, when we simply determined him to be the lesser of two evils in his war against Islamist Iran).

Iraq under Saddam Hussein would have been a breeding ground for the likes of ISIS. Like Syria’s Bashar al-Assad, Saddam Hussein was a Ba’athist, a secular strongman who sometimes allied with Islamists against common foes, but had little in common ideologically with them. Like Assad, he would have been a ripe target for Islamist ire during the Arab Spring, and would have likely responded in a manner much like Assad. Hillary Clinton is right that Syria poses a ‘wicked’ problem to the United States. Right now, Iraq does as well — but Assad’s fate — and his willingness to use chemical weapons against the people he claims as his — mirrors what an Iraq run by Saddam Hussein would surely look like right now, holding all else equal.

Of course, it is not necessary to hold all else equal, because, upon the recognition that the Maliki government clearly was not equipped to deal with terrorist threats to Iraq, the United States should have never abandoned the country. It is true that the government wanted us to leave — but that should not have mattered; Iraq owes the existence of its government to us, and our mission there was not primarily a humanitarian one, but was conducted for national security purposes. Do people suppose that Angela Merkel wants tens of thousands of U.S. troops stationed in Germany, or that Japan likes being denied its own military? Surely not. But Germany and Japan posed a threat to the United States and to the world order once, and we decided that it should never happen again — and we meant it. So it should have been in Iraq — but President Obama decided that his desire to fulfill an ideological campaign promise entitled him to suspend the reality principle. The ‘facts on the ground’ made it clear that Iraq was not ready to assume total responsibility for its own defense. This does not make Obama in any way responsible for the rise of ISIS, of course — ISIS alone bears responsibility for its own primitive savagery and inhuman barbarism — but it does make him short-sighted, perhaps foolish, even. His former Secretary of State certainly seems to think so.

by @ 8:33 pm. Filed under Barack Obama, Foreign Affairs, Hillary Clinton, International, Opinion

Poll Watch: Rutgers-Eagleton New Jersey 2016 Republican Primary Survey

Rutgers-Eagleton New Jersey 2016 GOP Primary Poll

The 2016 presidential election is far away, but thinking ahead to the Republican primary for president, who would be your first choice for the Republican candidate? Just tell me a name.

  • Chris Christie 41%
  • Mitt Romney 6%
  • Jeb Bush 5%
  • Ted Cruz 3%
  • Scott Walker 2%
  • Rand Paul 2%
  • Paul Ryan 1%
  • Marco Rubio 1%
  • Rick Perry 1%
  • Ron Paul 1%
  • Mike Huckabee 1%
  • Newt Gingrich 0%
  • Bobby Jindal 0%
  • Rudy Giuliani 0%
  • Sarah Palin 0% 
  • Other 3% 
  • Don’t know 30%

Survey of 255 registered Republicans and GOP-leaning Independents was conducted July 28 – August 5, 2014.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 2:34 pm. Filed under 2016, Chris Christie, Poll Watch

Poll Watch: PPP (D) Kentucky 2014 Senatorial Survey

PPP (D) Kentucky 2014 Senate Poll

  • Mitch McConnell (R) 47% [46%] (44%) {45%} [43%] (43%) {44%} [45%] (45%)
  • Alison Lundergan Grimes (D) 42% [48%] (45%) {44%} [42%] (45%) {45%} [45%] (41%)
Among Men

  • Mitch McConnell (R) 52% [47%] (45%) {49%} [47%] (49%) [49%] (49%)
  • Alison Lundergan Grimes (D) 39% [49%] (46%) {41%} [42%] (39%) [44%] (38%)

Among Women

  • Alison Lundergan Grimes (D) 45% [48%] (43%) {46%} [41%] (51%) [46%] (44%)
  • Mitch McConnell (R) 43% [45%] (43%) {41%} [40%] (38%) [41%] (41%)

If the candidates for Senate were Republican Mitch McConnell, Democrat Alison Lundergan Grimes, and Libertarian David Patterson, who would you vote for?

  • Mitch McConnell (R) 44%
  • Alison Lundergan Grimes (D) 40%
  • David Patterson (L) 7%

Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Mitch McConnell’s job performance?

  • Approve 37% {37%} [31%] {40%} [44%] (36%)
  • Disapprove 54% {51%} [61%] {51%} [47%] (54%) 

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net} 

  • Alison Lundergan Grimes (D) 41% [31%] [34%] (28%) / 45% [37%] [24%] (22%) {-4%}

Survey of 991 likely voters was conducted August 7-10, 2014.  The margin of error is +/- 3.1 percentage points. Party ID: 52% [52%] (54%) {52%} [52%] (53%) [50%] (51%) Democrat; 38% [37%] (38%) {36%} [39%] (37%) [35%] (39%) Republican; 10% [11%] (8%) {12%} [9%] (11%) [15%] (10%) Independent/Other.  Ideology: 28% [31%] [31%] Moderate; 25% [24%] [27%] Somewhat conservative; 20% [19%] [19%] Very conservative; 17% [16%] [14%] Somewhat liberal; 10% [10%] [9%] Very liberal. Results from the poll conducted June 20-22, 2014 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 1-2, 2014 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted January 24-26, 2014 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted December 12-15, 2013 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted October 14-15, 2013 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted July 19-21, 2013 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 23-24, 2013 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted April 5-7, 2013 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 11:57 am. Filed under 2014, Poll Watch

Poll Watch: Rasmussen Generic Congressional Ballot Survey

Rasmussen Generic Congressional Ballot Survey

  • Republicans 40% 42% 39% 39% 38% 38% 38% 38% 37% 37% 38% 38% 37% 38% 37% 40% 41% 38% 39% 38% 37% 39% 39% 36% 37% 37% 38% 40% 37% 35% 37%  38% 40% (42%) 40% (43%) (43%) (40%) (40%) (39%) (37%) (37%) (36%) (38%) (38%) (37%)
  • Democrats 39% 38% 41% 39% 39% 41% 40% 40% 39% 41% 41% 42% 41% 40% 41% 38% 40% 40% 40% 39% 41% 38% 39% 39% 41% 41% 40% 39% 42% 41% 41% 40% 40% (39%) 40% (38%) (38%) (41%) (39%) (41%) (43%) (43%) (43%) (45%) (42%) (40%)

The national telephone survey of 3,500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports from July 21-27, 2014. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

by @ 10:38 am. Filed under 2014, Poll Watch

Poll Watch: Rasmussen President Obama Job Approval Survey

Rasmussen President Obama Job Approval Poll 

How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as president?

  • Strongly approve 24%
  • Somewhat approve 23%
  • Somewhat disapprove 13%
  • Strongly disapprove 39%

President Obama Job Approval

  • Approve 47%
  • Disapprove 52%

Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 500 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. To reach those who have abandoned traditional landline telephones, Rasmussen Reports uses an online survey tool to interview randomly selected participants from a demographically diverse panel. The margin of sampling error for the full sample of 1,500 Likely Voters is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

by @ 10:28 am. Filed under 2014, Barack Obama, Poll Watch

August 11, 2014

Poll Watch: Rasmussen North Carolina 2014 Senatorial Survey

Rasmussen North Carolina 2014 Senate Poll

  • Thom Tillis (R) 45% [45%] (47%) 
  • Kay Hagan (D) 40% [44%] (40%)
  • Some other candidate 6% [5%] (3%)
  • Undecided 9% [7%] (10%)

Survey of 750 likely voters was conducted August 5-6, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted May 7-8, 2014 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 22-23, 2014 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 10:13 am. Filed under 2014, Poll Watch

Poll Watch: Rasmussen President Obama Job Approval Survey

Rasmussen President Obama Job Approval Poll 

How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as president?

  • Strongly approve 23%
  • Somewhat approve 22%
  • Somewhat disapprove 12%
  • Strongly disapprove 41%

President Obama Job Approval

  • Approve 45%
  • Disapprove 53%

Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 500 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. To reach those who have abandoned traditional landline telephones, Rasmussen Reports uses an online survey tool to interview randomly selected participants from a demographically diverse panel. The margin of sampling error for the full sample of 1,500 Likely Voters is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

by @ 10:12 am. Filed under 2014, Barack Obama, Poll Watch

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