July 31, 2014

Poll Watch: Quinnipiac Ohio 2016 Presidential Survey

Quinnipiac Ohio 2016 Presidential Poll

  • Hillary Clinton (D) 46% (49%) {51%} [50%] (47%)
  • Rand Paul (R) 42% (41%) {38%} [40%] (44%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 47% (47%) {51%} [49%]
  • John Kasich (R) 40% (42%) {39%} [38%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 46% (46%) {49%} [42%] (42%)
  • Chris Christie (R) 37% (38%) {36%} [41%] (42%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 48% (48%) {51%} [50%]
  • Jeb Bush (R) 37% (39%) {36%} [37%]

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

  • John Kasich 46% (47%) {42%} [41%] (47%) / 30% (29%) {30%} [30%] (28%) {+16%}
  • Hillary Clinton 52% (53%) (52%) / 43% (43%) (44%) {+9%}
  • Rand Paul 35% (38%) (43%) / 30% (29%) (26%) {+5%}
  • Chris Christie 34% (36%) (48%) / 36% (36%) (16%) {-2%}
  • Jeb Bush 29% (32%) / 35% (38%) {-6%}

Survey of 1,366 registered voters was conducted July 24-28, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 2.7 percentage points. Party ID: 32% (29%) {32%} [31%] (29%) Democrat; 28% (29%) {28%} [26%] (28%) Republican; 35% (35%) {33%} [36%] (35%) Independent; 6% (8%) {7%} [7%] (7%) Other.  Results from the poll conducted May 7-12, 2014 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted February 12-17, 2014 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 19-24, 2013 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted June 18-23, 2013 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 4:11 pm. Filed under 2016, Hillary Clinton, Poll Watch

Poll Watch: PPP (D) Colorado 2016 Presidential Survey

PPP (D) Colorado 2016 Presidential Poll

  • Rand Paul (R) 45% {44%} [47%] (45%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 44% {47%} [45%] (48%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 44% {49%} [48%]
  • Ted Cruz (R) 43% {40%} [45%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 41% {48%} [47%]
  • Jeb Bush (R) 40% {39%} [43%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 45% {48%}
  • Mike Huckabee (R) 43% {41%}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 45% {45%} [39%]
  • Chris Christie (R) 39% {38%} [46%]
Among Independents

  • Rand Paul (R) 41% {45%} [46%] (45%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 41% {40%} [41%] (45%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 41% {43%} [45%]
  • Ted Cruz (R) 38% {39%} [39%]
  • Jeb Bush (R) 35% {36%} [40%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 34% {43%} [42%]
  • Mike Huckabee (R) 42% {40%}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 39% {42%}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 42% {36%} [30%]
  • Chris Christie (R) 33% {38%} [45%]

Among Moderates

  • Hillary Clinton (D) 54% {56%} [54%] (58%)
  • Rand Paul (R) 32% {30%} [35%] (32%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 54% {56%} [59%]
  • Ted Cruz (R) 30% {26%} [31%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 46% {50%} [54%]
  • Jeb Bush (R) 29% {27%} [30%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 49% {56%}
  • Mike Huckabee (R) 30% {29%}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 51% {47%} [42%] 
  • Chris Christie (R) 30% {31%} [39%]

Among Men

  • Rand Paul (R) 51% {48%} [56%] (50%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 39% {45%} [37%] (41%)
  • Ted Cruz (R) 50% {42%} [53%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 37% {49%} [40%]
  • Jeb Bush (R) 45% {46%} [51%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 33% {45%} [39%]
  • Mike Huckabee (R) 51% {44%}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 38% {46%}
  • Chris Christie (R) 44% {46%} [51%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 40% {43%} [31%]

Among Women

  • Hillary Clinton (D) 49% {49%} [53%] (53%)
  • Rand Paul (R) 40% {40%} [39%] (41%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 51% {50%} [56%]
  • Ted Cruz (R) 36% {38%} [38%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 48% {50%} [54%]
  • Jeb Bush (R) 36% {33%} [34%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 51% {50%}
  • Mike Huckabee (R) 36% {39%}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 49% {48%} [47%] 
  • Chris Christie (R) 35% {31%} [41%]

Survey of 653 Colorado voters was conducted July 17-20, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 3.8 percentage points. Party ID: 35% {33%} [34%] (34%) Democrat; 34% {34%} [35%] (34%) Republican; 31%{33%} [31%] (32%) Independent/Other. Political ideology: 33% {27%} [29%] (26%) Moderate; 23% {23%} [27%] (25%) Somewhat conservative; 17% {20%} [16%] (19%) Somewhat liberal; 16% {16%} [14%] (15%) Very conservative; 10% {15%} [14%] (15%) Very liberal.Results from the poll conducted March 13-16, 2013 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted December 3-4, 2013 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted April 11-14, 2013 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 10:11 am. Filed under 2016, Hillary Clinton, Poll Watch, Rand Paul

Poll Watch: Rasmussen President Obama Job Approval Survey

Rasmussen President Obama Job Approval Poll 

How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as president?

  • Strongly approve 20%
  • Somewhat approve 25%
  • Somewhat disapprove 10%
  • Strongly disapprove 43%

President Obama Job Approval

  • Approve 45%
  • Disapprove 53%

Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 500 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. To reach those who have abandoned traditional landline telephones, Rasmussen Reports uses an online survey tool to interview randomly selected participants from a demographically diverse panel. The margin of sampling error for the full sample of 1,500 Likely Voters is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

by @ 10:09 am. Filed under 2014, Poll Watch

July 30, 2014

Poll Watch: Fox News 2016 Democratic Nomination Survey

Fox News 2016 Democratic Nomination Poll

  • Hillary Clinton 64% [69%] (68%)
  • Joe Biden 12% [14%] (12%)
  • Elizabeth Warren 9% [6%] (7%)
  • Andrew Cuomo 5% [2%] (4%)
  • Martin O’Malley 1% [1%] (1%)

National survey of 438 registered Democrats was conducted July 20-22, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 4.5 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted April 13-15, 2014 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted December 14-16, 2013 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 6:38 pm. Filed under 2016, Hillary Clinton, Poll Watch

Poll Watch: Rasmussen Michigan 2014 Senatorial Survey

Rasmussen Michigan 2014 Senate Poll

  • Gary Peters (D) 45% (35%)
  • Terri Lynn Land (R) 39% (37%)
  • Some other candidate 6% (8%)
  • Undecided 10% (20%)

Survey of 750 likely voters was conducted July 28-29, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points.  Results from the poll conductedJanuary 14-15, 2014 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 2:06 pm. Filed under 2014, Poll Watch

Poll Watch: Talk Business & Politics/Hendrix College Arkansas 2014 Senatorial Survey

Talk Business/Hendrix College Arkansas 2014 Senate Poll

  • Tom Cotton (R) 44% [42.5%] (41%)
  • Mark Pryor (D) 42% [45.5%] (42%)
  • Mark Swaney (G) 4% [2%]
  • Nathan LaFrance (L) 3% [2%]
  • Undecided 7% [8%] (17%)

Survey of 1,780 likely voters was conducted July 22-25, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 2.3 percentage points. Party ID: 32.5% Democrat; 30.0% Republican; 30.5% Independent; 7.0% Other. Results from the poll conducted April 3-4, 2014 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted October 8, 2013 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 12:19 pm. Filed under 2014, Poll Watch

Poll Watch: Rasmussen President Obama Job Approval Survey

Note: Please forgive the late posting today-KWN

Rasmussen President Obama Job Approval Poll 

How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as president?

  • Strongly approve 21%
  • Somewhat approve 25%
  • Somewhat disapprove 10%
  • Strongly disapprove 44%

President Obama Job Approval

  • Approve 46%
  • Disapprove 54%

Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 500 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. To reach those who have abandoned traditional landline telephones, Rasmussen Reports uses an online survey tool to interview randomly selected participants from a demographically diverse panel. The margin of sampling error for the full sample of 1,500 Likely Voters is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

by @ 12:17 pm. Filed under 2014, Barack Obama, Poll Watch

July 29, 2014

Poll Watch: Fox News 2016 Presidential Survey

  • Hillary Clinton (D) 50% [50%] (49%)
  • Chris Christie (R) 40% [42%] (38%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 52% [51%]
  • Rand Paul (R) 41% [42%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 52% [51%] (51%)
  • Jeb Bush (R) 39% [42%] (38%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 54%
  • John Kasich (R) 35%

Among Independents

  • Chris Christie (R) 43% [41%] (31%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 39% [40%] (40%)
  • Rand Paul (R) 48% [41%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 43% [44%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 47% [45%] (42%)
  • Jeb Bush (R) 38% [40%] (31%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 45%
  • John Kasich (R) 34%

Among Men

  • Chris Christie (R) 45% [46%] (41%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 45% [44%] (43%)
  • Rand Paul (R) 47% [47%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 47% [45%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 48% [45%] (44%)
  • Jeb Bush (R) 44% [44%] (41%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 48%
  • John Kasich (R) 40%

Among Women

  • Hillary Clinton (D) 55% [55%] (55%)
  • Chris Christie (R) 36% [38%] (35%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 56% [56%]
  • Rand Paul (R) 36% [38%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 57% [56%] (57%)
  • Jeb Bush (R) 35% [40%] (36%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 59%
  • John Kasich (R) 30%

National survey of 1,057 registered voters was conducted July 20-22, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points. Party ID: 43% [39%] (40%) Democrat; 35% [38%] (34%) Republican; 18% [20%] (23%) Independent/Other. Results from the poll conducted April 13-15, 2014 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 2-4, 2014 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 12:48 pm. Filed under 2016, Hillary Clinton, Poll Watch

Poll Watch: Fox News 2016 Republican Nomination Survey

Fox News 2016 GOP Nomination Poll

  • Jeb Bush 12% [14%] (12%)
  • Rick Perry 12% [5%] (3%)
  • Rand Paul 11% [14%] (11%)
  • Chris Christie 10% [15%] (16%)
  • Paul Ryan 9% [9%] (12%)
  • Marco Rubio 9% [8%] (8%)
  • Ted Cruz 9% [7%] (12%)
  • Scott Walker 4% [5%] (6%)
  • Bobby Jindal 4% [2%]
  • Rick Santorum 3% [5%] (3%)
  • John Kasich 2%

National survey of 358 registered Republicans was conducted July 20-22, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 5 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted April 13-15, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted December 14-16, 2013 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 11:11 am. Filed under 2016, Jeb Bush, Poll Watch, Rick Perry

Poll Watch: Rasmussen Generic Congressional Ballot Survey

Rasmussen Generic Congressional Ballot Survey

  • Democrats 41% 39% 39% 41% 40% 40% 39% 41% 41% 42% 41% 40% 41% 38% 40% 40% 40% 39% 41% 38% 39% 39% 41% 41% 40% 39% 42% 41% 41% 40% 40% (39%) 40% (38%) (38%) (41%) (39%) (41%) (43%) (43%) (43%) (45%) (42%) (40%)
  • Republicans 39% 39% 38% 38% 38% 38% 37% 37% 38% 38% 37% 38% 37% 40% 41% 38% 39% 38% 37% 39% 39% 36% 37% 37% 38% 40% 37% 35% 37%  38% 40% (42%) 40% (43%) (43%) (40%) (40%) (39%) (37%) (37%) (36%) (38%) (38%) (37%)

The national telephone survey of 3,500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports from July 21-27, 2014. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

by @ 10:03 am. Filed under 2014, Poll Watch

Poll Watch: Rasmussen President Obama Job Approval Survey

Rasmussen President Obama Job Approval Poll 

How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as president?

  • Strongly approve 22%
  • Somewhat approve 25%
  • Somewhat disapprove 10%
  • Strongly disapprove 42%

President Obama Job Approval

  • Approve 47%
  • Disapprove 52%

Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 500 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. To reach those who have abandoned traditional landline telephones, Rasmussen Reports uses an online survey tool to interview randomly selected participants from a demographically diverse panel. The margin of sampling error for the full sample of 1,500 Likely Voters is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

by @ 10:01 am. Filed under 2014, Barack Obama, Poll Watch

July 28, 2014

Poll Watch: CNN/ORC 2016 Democratic Nomination Survey

CNN/ORC 2016 Democratic Nomination Poll 

  • Hillary Clinton 67% {64%} [63%] (65%)
  • Elizabeth Warren 10% [7%] (7%)
  • Joe Biden 8% {13%} [12%] (10%)
  • Andrew Cuomo 4% {4%} [5%] (6%)
  • Martin O’Malley 2% {4%} [2%] (2%)

Survey of 449 Democrats and Democratic-leaning Independents was conducted July 18-20, 2014.  The margin of error is +/- 4.5 percentage points. Party ID: 67% Democrat; 33% Independent. Results from the poll conducted March 7-9, 2014 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 18-20, 2013 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 6-8, 2013 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 5:00 pm. Filed under 2016, Andrew Cuomo, Elizabeth Warren, Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden, Martin O'Malley

Poll Watch: Gravis Marketing/Human Events (R) Kentucky 2016 Presidential Survey

Gravis Marketing/Human Events (R) Kentucky 2016 Presidential Poll

  • Rand Paul (R) 50%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 44%
  • Uncertain 6%
  • Rand Paul (R) 52%
  • Elizabeth Warren (D) 34%
  • Uncertain 14%

Survey of 1,054 likely voters was conducted July 17-20, 2014.  The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points. Party ID: 50% Democrat;39% Republican; 11% Independent/Other.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 4:15 pm. Filed under 2014, Poll Watch, Rand Paul

Poll Watch: Gravis Marketing/Human Events (R) Kentucky 2014 Senatorial Survey

Gravis Marketing/Human Events (R) Kentucky 2014 Senate Poll

  • Alison Lundergan Grimes (D) 45% (36%)
  • Mitch McConnell (R) 45% (43%)
  • Undecided 10% (12%)

Survey of 1,054 likely voters was conducted July 17-20, 2014.  The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points. Party ID: 50% (35%) Democrat; 39% (47%) Republican; 11% (18%) Independent/Other. Results from the poll conducted April 15-17, 2014 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 3:30 pm. Filed under 2014, Poll Watch

Poll Watch: Landmark Communications (R) Georgia 2014 Senatorial Survey

Landmark Communications (R) Georgia 2014 Senate Poll

  • Michelle Nunn (D) 46.6% [48%] (33.0%)
  • David Perdue (R) 43.0% [42%] (37.5%)
  • Amanda Swafford (L) 3.8%
Survey of 750 likely voters was conducted July 25, 2014 for Channel 2 Action News. The margin of error is +/- 3.8 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted July 15, 2014 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 1, 2014 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 2:45 pm. Filed under 2014, Poll Watch

Poll Watch: Rasmussen Georgia 2014 Senatorial Survey

Rasmussen Georgia 2014 Senate Poll

  • David Perdue (R) 46% (42%)
  • Michelle Nunn (D) 40% (45%)
  • Some other candidate 4% (7%)
  • Undecided 10% (6%)

Survey of 750 likely voters was conducted July 23-24, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted May 21-22, 2014 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 2:00 pm. Filed under 2014, Poll Watch

Poll Watch: Rasmussen (R) New Mexico 2014 Gubernatorial Survey

Rasmussen (R) New Mexico 2014 Gubernatorial Poll

  • Gary King (D) 43%
  • Susana Martinez (R) 43%
  • Some other candidate 7%
  • Undecided 7%

Survey of 860 likely New Mexico voters was conducted July 21-22, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 1:15 pm. Filed under 2014, Poll Watch

Poll Watch: Quinnipiac Florida 2016 Democratic Primary Survey

Quinnipiac Florida 2016 Democratic Primary Poll

  • Hillary Clinton 67% {64%} [64%] (70%)
  • Joe Biden 8% {11%} [9%] (9%)
  • Elizabeth Warren 8% {6%} [5%] (4%)
  • Andrew Cuomo 1% {1%} [1%] (2%)
  • Martin O’Malley 0% {1%} [1%] (1%)
  • Brian Schweitzer 0% {1%}

Survey of 457 Democratic voters was conducted July 17-21, 2014.  The margin of error is +/- 4.6 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted April 23-28, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted January 22-27, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted November 12-17, 2013 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 12:30 pm. Filed under 2016, Poll Watch

Poll Watch: Quinnipiac Florida 2016 Presidential Survey

Quinnipiac Florida 2016 Presidential Poll

  • Hillary Clinton (D) 49% [49%] (49%) {47%} [50%] (51%)
  • Jeb Bush (R) 42% [41%] (43%) {45%} [43%] (40%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 51% [56%] (52%) {50%}
  • Paul Ryan (R) 38% [36%] (39%) {42%}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 53% [52%] (51%) {50%} [53%] (52%)
  • Marco Rubio (R) 39% [40%] (41%) {43%} [41%] (41%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 53% [55%] (53%) {51%}
  • Rand Paul (R) 37% [37%] (38%) {41%}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 54% [52%] (51%) {45%}
  • Chris Christie (R) 33% [34%] (35%) {41%}

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

  • Hillary Clinton 58% [58%] [57%] (62%) / 38% [37%] [38%] (33%) {+20%}
  • Jeb Bush 48% [53%] [54%] (50%) / 37% [35%] [33%] (35%) {+11%}
  • Marco Rubio 43% [43%] [44%] (41%) / 35% [36%] [33%] (34%) {+8%}
  • Rand Paul 32% [34%] / 28% [31%] {+4%}
  • Paul Ryan 33% [33%] / 30% [36%] {+3%}
  • Chris Christie 35% [37%] / 36% [35%] {-1%}

Survey of 1,251 registered voters was conducted July 17-21, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 2.8 percentage points. Party ID: 31% [31%] (30%) {32%} [34%] (35%) Democrat; 28% [25%] (27%) {29%} [28%] (27%) Republican; 32% [34%] (35%) {32%} [30%] (31%) Independent; 9% [11%] (7%) {7%} [8%] (7%) Other.  Results from the poll conducted April 23-28, 2014 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 22-27, 2014 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted November 12-17, 2013 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted June 11-16, 2013 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted March 13-18, 2013 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 11:45 am. Filed under 2016, Hillary Clinton, Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, Poll Watch

Poll Watch: Gravis Marketing/Human Events (R) Florida 2016 Presidential Survey

Gravis Marketing/Human Events (R) Florida 2016 Presidential Poll

  • Jeb Bush (R) 49%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 39%
  • Unsure 13%

Survey of 741 likely voters was conducted July 20-22, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points. Party ID: 36% Republican; 29% Democrat; 35% Independent/Other.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 10:09 am. Filed under 2016, Poll Watch

Poll Watch: Rasmussen President Obama Job Approval Survey

Rasmussen President Obama Job Approval Poll 

How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as president?

  • Strongly approve 22%
  • Somewhat approve 23%
  • Somewhat disapprove 12%
  • Strongly disapprove 41%

President Obama Job Approval

  • Approve 45%
  • Disapprove 53%

Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 500 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. To reach those who have abandoned traditional landline telephones, Rasmussen Reports uses an online survey tool to interview randomly selected participants from a demographically diverse panel. The margin of sampling error for the full sample of 1,500 Likely Voters is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

by @ 10:06 am. Filed under 2014, Barack Obama, Poll Watch

July 27, 2014

Poll Watch: CNN/ORC 2016 Republican Nomination Survey

CNN/ORC 2016 GOP Nomination Poll 

  • Chris Christie 13% {8%} [9%] (8%) {10%} [24%] (17%)
  • Rand Paul 12% {14%} [13%] (16%) {13%} [13%] (13%)
  • Mike Huckabee 12% {11%} [10%] (10%) {14%}
  • Rick Perry 11% {6%} [8%] (11%) {8%} [7%] (6%)
  • Paul Ryan 11% {10%} [12%] (15%) {9%} [11%] (16%)
  • Jeb Bush 8% {12%} [13%] (9%) {10%} [6%] (10%)
  • Ted Cruz 8% {9%} [7%] (8%) {8%} [10%] (7%)
  • Marco Rubio 6% {8%} [6%] (5%) {9%} [9%] (9%)
  • Scott Walker 5% {5%} [7%]
  • Rick Santorum 3% {4%} [2%] (3%) {4%} [6%] (5%)
  • Someone else (vol.) 6% {6%} [4%] (6%) {8%} [6%] (6%)
  • None/No one (vol.) 2% {2%] [4%] (4%) {3%} [2%] (4%)
  • No opinion 3% {5%} [7%] (5%) {4%} [6%] (6%)

Among Republicans

  • Paul Ryan 14% {15%} [14%] (19%) {9%} [11%] (17%)
  • Chris Christie 13% {8%} [8%] (6%) {8%} [28%] (17%)
  • Mike Huckabee 12% {14%} [12%] (9%) {17%}
  • Rand Paul 12% {8%} [12%] (10%) {13%} [12%] (9%)
  • Rick Perry 10% {7%} [7%] (11%) {8%} [8%] (7%)
  • Jeb Bush 10% {10%} [15%] (11%) {10%} [6%] (13%)
  • Marco Rubio 6% {9%} [6%] (5%) {12%} [10%] (10%)
  • Ted Cruz 6% {9%} [6%] (11%) {5%} [9%] (7%)
  • Scott Walker 4% {4%} [7%]
  • Rick Santorum 4% {3%} [2%] (4%) {5%} [7%] (3%)
  • Someone else (vol.) 5% {7%} [3%] (8%) {5%} [6%] (7%)
  • None/No one (vol.) 1% {2%} [2%] (3%) {4%} [1%] (4%)
  • No opinion 3% {4%} [8%] (5%) {3%} [3%] (5%)

Among GOP-Leaning Independents

  • Rand Paul 13% {21%} [15%] (22%) {13%} [15%] (17%)
  • Mike Huckabee 13% {8%} [7%] (11%) {10%}
  • Chris Christie 12% {7%} [10%] (11%) {13%} [20%] (18%)
  • Rick Perry 12% {5%} [8%] (12%) {7%} [7%] (6%)
  • Ted Cruz 10% {9%} [9%] (6%) {13%} [12%] (7%)
  • Paul Ryan 7% {5%} [8%] (11%) {10%} [12%]  (15%)
  • Marco Rubio 6% {7%} [6%] (5%) {5%} [7%] (9%)
  • Scott Walker 5% {6%} [6%]
  • Jeb Bush 5% {14%} [10%] (7%) {10%} [6%] (6%)
  • Rick Santorum 3% {4%} [2%] (2%) {3%} [5%] (7%)
  • Someone else (vol.) 7% {5%} [5%] (3%) {12%} [6%] (4%)
  • None/No one (vol.) 3% {3%} [6%] (6%) {2%} [3%] (4%)
  • No opinion 4% {7%} [7%] (5%) {4%} [8%] (7%)

Among Men 

  • Rand Paul 14% {17%} [17%] (17%) {17%} [15%] (13%)
  • Chris Christie 12% {7%} [8%] (9%) {6%} [23%] (16%)
  • Paul Ryan 12% {9%} [7%] (15%) {12%} [10%] (14%)
  • Mike Huckabee 11% {11%} [8%] (11%) {14%}
  • Ted Cruz 10% {10%} [9%] (10%) {10%} [12%] (12%)
  • Rick Perry 9% {8%} [11%] (10%) {7%} [8%] (7%)
  • Jeb Bush 7% {12%} [14%] (7%) {9%} [2%] (9%)
  • Scott Walker 6% {7%} [8%]
  • Marco Rubio 5% {6%} [4%] (6%) {7%} [11%] (11%)
  • Rick Santorum 3% {4%} [1%] (2%) {2%} [6%] (6%)
  • Someone else (vol.) 7% {5%} [3%] (7%) {8%} [6%] (5%)
  • None/No one (vol.) 2% {1%} [4%] (2%) {4%} [2%] (3%)
  • No opinion 1% {3%} [6%] (3%) {4%} [4%] (5%)

Among Women

  • Mike Huckabee 15% {12%} [12%] (9%) {14%}
  • Chris Christie 13% {8%} [9%] (7%) {15%} [24%] (19%)
  • Rick Perry 13% {3%} [4%] (13%) {9%} [6%] (6%)
  • Rand Paul 10% {10%} [10%] (14%) {9%} [11%] (12%)
  • Paul Ryan 9% {12%} [17%] (13%) {6%} [13%] (19%)
  • Jeb Bush 9% {10%} [12%] (11%) {10%} [10%] (11%)
  • Marco Rubio 7% {11%} [8%] (5%) {11%} [7%] (7%)
  • Ted Cruz 6% {8%} [5%] (6%) {7%} [8%] (3%)
  • Scott Walker 3% {3%} [6%]
  • Rick Santorum 3% {3%} [2%] (4%) {7%} [6%] (4%)
  • Someone else (vol.) 5% {7%} [4%] (4%) {8%} [6%] (6%)
  • None/No one (vol.) 1% {4%} [3%] (7%) {3%} [2%] (6%)
  • No opinion 5% {8%} [9%] (6%) {3%} [7%] (7%)

Survey of 470 Republicans and GOP-leaning Independents was conducted July, 2014.  The margin of error is +/- 4.5 percentage points.Party ID: 59% {55%} [61%] (50%) {52%} Republican; 41% {45%} [39%] (50%) {48%} Independent.  Results from the poll conducted May 29 – June 1, 2014 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 2-4, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted March 7-9, 2014 are in parentheses.   Results from the poll conducted January 31 – February 2, 2014 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 18-20, 2013 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 6-8, 2013 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 11:08 am. Filed under 2016, Chris Christie, Poll Watch

Poll Watch: Rasmussen President Obama Job Approval Survey

Rasmussen President Obama Job Approval Poll 

How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as president?

  • Strongly approve 23%
  • Somewhat approve 23%
  • Somewhat disapprove 12%
  • Strongly disapprove 40%

President Obama Job Approval

  • Approve 46%
  • Disapprove 52%

Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 500 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. To reach those who have abandoned traditional landline telephones, Rasmussen Reports uses an online survey tool to interview randomly selected participants from a demographically diverse panel. The margin of sampling error for the full sample of 1,500 Likely Voters is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

by @ 11:00 am. Filed under 2014, Barack Obama, Poll Watch

July 26, 2014

Poll Watch: Gravis Marketing/Human Events (R) Montana 2014 Senatorial Survey

Gravis Marketing/Human Events (R) Montana 2014 Senate Poll

  • Steve Daines (R) 45%
  • John Walsh (D) 41%
  • Roger Roots (L) 6%
  • Unsure 7%

Survey of 741 likely voters was conducted July 20-22, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points. Party ID: 36% Republican; 29% Democrat; 35% Independent/Other.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 1:15 pm. Filed under 2014, Poll Watch

Poll Watch: Gravis Marketing/Human Events (R) Iowa 2014 Senatorial Survey

Gravis Marketing/Human Events (R) Iowa 2014 Senate Poll 

  • Bruce Braley (D) 44%
  • Joni Ernst (R) 43%
  • Unsure 13% 

Survey of 1,179 likely voters was conducted July 17-18, 2014.  The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points. Party ID: 33% Democrat; 32% Republican; 34% Independent.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 12:30 pm. Filed under 2014, Poll Watch

Poll Watch: Quinnipiac Florida 2014 Gubernatorial Survey

Quinnipiac Florida 2014 Gubernatorial Poll

  • Charlie Crist (D) 45% [48%] (46%) {47%} [47%] (50%)
  • Rick Scott (R) 40% [38%] (38%) {40%} [37%] (34%)

Among Democrats

  • Charlie Crist (D) 78% [82%] (81%) {86%} [83%] (81%)
  • Rick Scott (R) 10% [9%] (6%) {4%} [8%] (7%)

Among Republicans

  • Rick Scott (R) 79% [79%] (79%) {80%} [75%] (76%)
  • Charlie Crist (D) 12% [10%] (12%) {11%} [13%] (16%)

Among Independents

  • Charlie Crist (D) 45% [48%] (48%) {44%} [45%] (49%)
  • Rick Scott (R) 38% [34%] (32%) {41%} [33%] (29%)

Among Men

  • Rick Scott (R) 48% [43%] (42%) {46%} [43%] (39%)
  • Charlie Crist (D) 39% [44%] (43%) {43%} [43%] (49%)

Among Women

  • Charlie Crist (D) 49% [51%] (50%) {50%} [51%] (51%)
  • Rick Scott (R) 34% [33%] (34%) {34%} [32%] (29%)

If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Charlie Crist the Democrat, Rick Scott the Republican and Adrian Wyllie the Libertarian, for whom would you vote?

  • Charlie Crist (D) 39%
  • Rick Scott (R) 37%
  • Adrian Wyllie (L) 9%

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Rick Scott is handling his job as Governor?

  • Approve 43% [42%] (41%) {42%} [43%] (36%)
  • Disapprove 48% [50%] (49%) {47%} [44%] (49%)

Do you feel that Rick Scott deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected?  

  • Yes/Deserves 40% [39%] (38%) {37%} [35%] (32%)
  • No/Does not 51% [53%] (54%) {53%} [50%] (55%)

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

  • Charlie Crist 40% [43%] (44%) {41%} [48%] (49%) / 42% [36%] (35%) {39%} [31%] (30%) {-2%}
  • Rick Scott 40% [39%] (38%) {39%} [40%] (33%) / 45% [46%] (45%) {42%} [42%] (46%) {-5%}

Would you say that Charlie Crist is honest and trustworthy or not?

  • Yes 39% [45%]
  • No 48% [43%]

Would you say that Rick Scott is honest and trustworthy or not?

  • Yes 40% [38%]
  • No 51% [51%]

Would you say that Charlie Crist cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not?

  • Yes 44% [48%]
  • No 47% [42%]

Would you say that Rick Scott cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not?

  • Yes 41% [38%]
  • No 52% [55%]

Would you say that Charlie Crist has strong leadership qualities or not?

  • Yes 49% [55%]
  • No 43% [37%]

Would you say that Rick Scott has strong leadership qualities or not? 

  • Yes 54% [49%]
  • No 38% [44%]

Regardless of who you may support, who do you think is more compassionate, Crist or Scott?

  • Charlie Crist 48% [50%]
  • Rick Scott 36% [35%]

In recent years, Charlie Crist has changed his party affiliation from Republican to Independent to Democrat. Some people say this is a positive thing because it shows he is a pragmatist who can change with the times and issues. Other people say it is a negative thing because it shows he has no core beliefs. Which comes closest to your view of Charlie Crist?

  • Positive thing 47% [52%] {46%} [47%] (50%)
  • Negative thing 45% [40%] {46%} [44%] (40%) 

Survey of 1,251 registered voters was conducted July 17-21, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 2.8 percentage points. Party ID: 31% [31%] (30%) {32%} [34%] (35%) Democrat; 28% [25%] (27%) {29%} [28%] (27%) Republican; 32% [34%] (35%) {32%} [30%] (31%) Independent; 9% [11%] (7%) {7%} [8%] (7%) Other.  Results from the poll conducted April 23-28, 2014 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 22-27, 2014 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted November 12-17, 2013 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted June 11-16, 2013 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 13-18, 2013 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 11:45 am. Filed under 2014, Poll Watch

July 25, 2014

The Moral Bankruptcy of Israel-Hatred

In his indispensable book The Case for Israel, Professor Alan Dershowitz posits that, besides being the Jewish state, Israel is also the “Jew among nations” — constantly held to higher moral standards than its peers, and consistently singled out for one-sided, disproportionate criticism. The United Nations’ Human Rights Council — whose members include human rights dignitaries like Cuba and Saudi Arabia – voted this week to investigate Israel for war crimes while shrugging its shoulders as Hamas uses young children as human shields for their weaponry — which, as all but the most willfully ignorant among us know by now, is frequently hidden in hospitals and schools. The United States cast the sole vote against coercing Israel into a show-trial, while Europe cowardly abstained from distinguishing between good and evil.

Instead of utilizing ordinary logic and blaming Hamas for setting up children to die and using their corpses as war propaganda, for perpetuating the violence that will lead to the deaths of countless more innocents, and for refusing to recognize Israel’s right to exist, Israel-haters assert either that Israel has brought Islamist terror upon itself, or that it simply shouldn’t give in to Hamas’ provocations — since, after all, defending its citizens will only invite more hatred and blame. The former throw their lot in with Hamas by fundamentally denying Israel’s right to exist, but the latter, like teachers who tell bullied students that they ought to stop making themselves targets for their tormentors, are no less reprehensible. For these people, Israel has two choices: stand by idly in response to unprovoked terrorist attacks, and allow its civilians to die — or fight back, only to be informed that it is not allowed to fight back unless it is willing to bear responsibility for the outcome of Hamas’ disturbing tactics. The Jews, then, must either allow themselves to die, or they must accept responsibility for the fact that they are hated. Heads, Hamas wins; tails, Israel loses.

Israel exercises force against Hamas rather than attempting to negotiate with it because Hamas simply cannot be negotiated with. This is not an opinion: it is in the words of its charter, which begins by approvingly quoting Hassan al-Banna, the founder of the Muslim Brotherhood: “Israel will exist and will continue to exist until Islam will obliterate it.” The charter then declares that this interpretation of Islam is its worldview, and declares that “our struggle against the Jews is very great and very serious.” Current Hamas leader Khaled Meshaal explicitly denies Israel’s right to exist as a Jewish state. Peaceful coexistence is impossible with people who wish only for your extermination.

Virtually all of the criticisms of Israel that deny its right to self-defense rest upon standards to which no other nation would ever be held. We are told that Israel’s response to Hamas is ‘disproportionate,’ the evidence for which is usually presented in the form of a t-ledger comparing the two sides’ respective body counts — as if the fact that Hamas has killed few Israelis in recent years is due to a lack of effort, rather than Israel’s vigorous efforts to defend itself — or, even more nauseatingly, as if Israel has a moral duty to let more of its own die before fighting back. We are told that Israel cannot legitimately conduct military operations in which civilians are likely to die — as if Israel does not go above and beyond to minimize civilian casualties, or as if some number of civilian deaths are not a tragic — but unavoidable — part of any military operation, just or unjust. Countless innocent German civilians, including young children, died in World War II. Are we to condemn as unjust every war conducted in the history of the human race?

Ultimately, the debate over Israel figures so prominently and arouses such passion because it serves as a proxy argument about morality and legitimacy in international relations. The world has increasingly turned against Israel. Is morality a popularity contest? Civilians, including children, die both in terrorist attacks and in military operations conducted in response to them. Is there no moral difference between the two? Hamas has explicitly stated its desire to exterminate the Jewish people — and the people of Gaza voted them into office — while Israel is an outpost of liberal democracy and individual liberty in a region that is otherwise a political wasteland of chaos and oppression. Must we view Israel and Hamas simply as two bickering sides?

All states are imperfect, and it really ought to go without saying that there are countless legitimate criticisms that may be leveled at Israel, its government, and its military. But Israel-haters and their fellow travelers’ ignorant propaganda masquerading as concern for children is a thin veil for the ugly relativism — and sometimes worse — inherent in any ethical perspective that is so morally enervated that it cannot reason beyond emotionally evocative photographs of dead children and t-ledgers of body counts.

by @ 11:33 am. Filed under Foreign Affairs, Opinion

“Minnewisowa” More Than Ever?

The political mega-state of “Minnewisowa” (Minnesota, Wisconsin and Iowa) is once again, mid-way into the 2014 national mid-term elections,  flashlighting its bellwether status in American politics.

These three contiguous north midwestern states, as I have pointed out during the past decade, have so much in common demographically they vote in much the same way, but being “swing” states, how they will vote varies from cycle to cycle.

This might have been considered an unexpected historical circumstance, especially since both Minnesota and Wisconsin were considered very “progressive,” even radical, states about century ago, and before that, they were very Republican.

But while many other U.S. states, also originally agricultural, became very industrialized and urban, these three states maintain substantial rural and exurban populations, even if farming is no longer their primary occupation. Minnesota has a large urban center, the “twin cities” of Minneapolis and St. Paul, and these are overwhelmingly liberal, and increasingly so as minority populations have settled in them. In Wisconsin, Milwaukee and the capital Madison are very liberal, as is Des Moines and the college town Iowa City in Iowa. But an urban-outstate balance has been created in all three of these states, as can be seen plainly once city lines are crossed to head into their outstate areas.

Veteran Republican governors lead Iowa and Wisconsin, and are expected to win re-election again in 2014. The Democratic governor of Minnesota seems secure in his re-election so far this year. There is one Democratic U.S. senator in Iowa and one Republican, but the former is retiring, and a Republican has good chance to win the seat. In Wisconsin, similarly, each party has a U.S. senate seat, neither of which is up this year. Minnesota has two Democrats (called Democrat-Farmer-Laborites or DFLers) in the U.S. senate, but the one up for re-election this year might be vulnerable. All three state have split delegations in the U.S. Congress. A net GOP pick-up is very possible in Minnesota this cycle.

In 2012, Republicans had high hopes to make gains in Minnewisowa, but the Obama Democratic tide swamped these ambitions. In 2010, a national mid-term year, the GOP had done well, winning governorships in Iowa and Wisconsin (and, but for a slip of the tongue, would have won another in Minnesota), and picked up a senate seat in Wisconsin, and congressional seats in the region.

The point is. of course, that each major party can do well in Minnewisowa. What makes it a bellwether is that it often signals which way the national political wind is blowing in a particular cycle.

In 2014, the races to watch in Minnewisowa include the U.S. senate seat in Iowa (between Democrat Bill Braley and ?Republican Joni Ernst), the senate seat in Minnesota (between incumbent Democrat Al Franken and Republican Mike McFadden), the governor’s races in Wisconsin (between incumbent Republican Scott Walker and Democrat Mary Burke) and in Minnesota (between incumbent DFLer Mark Dayton and a Republican yet to be chosen in the state’s August 12 primary) and several close congressional races in all three states, most notably perhaps the race in Minnesota’s 8th district between incumbent DFLer Rick Nolan and his GOP challenger Stewart Mills.

Beyond 2014, the Minnewisowa political prize is the presidential election in 2016 in which the mega-state packs an electoral college wallop. In this contest, the Democrats have won the recent cycles, and by a big margin in 2012. A switch in voter sentiment in 2014, however, might signal a switch in 2016, but such a reversal, if it is to occur, is four months away and as yet uncertain.

—————————————————————————————-
Copyright (c) by Barry Casselman. All rights reserved.

by @ 10:41 am. Filed under 2014, 2016, Scott Walker, Senate Races

Poll Watch: Roanoke College Virginia 2016 Presidential Survey

Roanoke College Virginia 2016 Presidential Poll

  • Hillary Clinton (D) 47% (51%)
  • Paul Ryan (R) 38% (40%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 44% (48%)
  • Chris Christie (R) 34% (40%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 47% (52%)
  • Rand Paul (R) 37% (38%)

Survey of 566 registered voters was conducted July 14-19, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 4.2 percentage points.  Party ID: 35% (29%) Democrat; 27% (24%) Republican; 28% (47%) Independent/Other. Results from the poll conducted February 22-28, 2014 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 10:40 am. Filed under 2016, Hillary Clinton, Poll Watch

Poll Watch: SurveyUSA Florida 2016 Presidential Survey

SurveyUSA Florida 2016 Presidential Poll 

  • Hillary Clinton (D) 49%
  • Chris Christie (R) 38%
  • Chris Christie (R) 48%
  • Joe Biden (D) 39%

Among Men

  • Hillary Clinton (D) 48%
  • Chris Christie (R) 39%
  • Chris Christie (R) 48%
  • Joe Biden (D) 37%

Among Women

  • Hillary Clinton (D) 51%
  • Chris Christie (R) 37%
  • Chris Christie (R) 47%
  • Joe Biden (D) 41%

Survey of 836 registered voters was conducted July 17-21, 2014 for WFLA-TV.  The margin of error is +/- 3.5 percentage points. Party ID: 39% Democrat; 34% Republican; 27% Independent. Ideology: 43% Moderate; 30% Conservative; 19% Liberal. Gender: 52% Female; 48% Male . 

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 10:30 am. Filed under 2016, Hillary Clinton, Poll Watch

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