April 1, 2015

Poll Watch: Boston Herald/Franklin Pierce University New Hampshire 2016 Republican Primary Survey

Boston Herald/Franklin Pierce University New Hampshire 2016 GOP Primary Poll

  • Jeb Bush 15%
  • Scott Walker 15%
  • Rand Paul 13%
  • Chris Christie 10%
  • Ted Cruz 9%
  • Mike Huckabee 7%
  • Ben Carson 4%
  • Marco Rubio 4%
  • Rick Perry 2%
  • Rick Santorum 2%
  • John Bolton 1%
  • Bobby Jindal 1%
  • John Kasich 1%
  • Carly Fiorina 0%
  • Lindsey Graham 0%
  • George Pataki 0%
  • Other 5%
  • Unsure 10%

Survey of 429 likely Republican primary voters was conducted March 22-25, 2015.  The margin of error is +/- 4.7 percentage points.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 8:00 am. Filed under 2016, Jeb Bush, New Hampshire Primary, Poll Watch, Republican Party, Scott Walker

Poll Watch: Quinnipiac Pennsylvania 2016 Presidential Survey

  • Rand Paul (R) 45% {34%} [37%] (38%) {40%} [37%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 44% {53%} [51%] (53%) {52%} [52%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 46%
  • Marco Rubio (R) 42%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 45% {50%} [45%] (46%) {44%} (47%)
  • Chris Christie (R) 40% {39%} [41%] (41%) {43%} (42%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 46%
  • Scott Walker (R) 41%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 46% {50%} [51%] (53%) {52%}
  • Jeb Bush (R) 40% {35%} [35%] (36%) {36%}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 47% {54%} [51%]
  • Mike Huckabee (R) 41% {34%} [36%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 48% (54%) {54%}
  • Ted Cruz (R) 39% (34%) {36%}
Survey of 1,036 Pennsylvania voters was conducted March 17-28, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points.  Party ID: 31% {36%} [38%] (35%) {36%} [39%] (37%) Democrat; 31% {28%} [30%] (32%) {30%} [33%] (34%) Republican; 31% {28%} [27%] (26%) {27%} [21%] (24%) Independent; 7% {8%} [6%] (7%) {7%} [7%] (5%) Other/Don’t know.  Click here to view crosstabs. Results from the poll conducted January 22 – February 1, 2015 are in curly brackets.Results from the poll conducted May 29 – June 2, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted February 19-24, 2014 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted December 11-16, 2013 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 30 – June 4, 2013 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 6-11, 2013 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 4:00 am. Filed under 2016, Hillary Clinton, Poll Watch, Rand Paul, Republican Party

March 31, 2015

Poll Watch: Quinnipiac Ohio 2016 Presidential Survey

  • Hillary Clinton (D) 46% {48%} [46%] (49%) {51%} [50%] (47%)
  • Rand Paul (R) 41% {36%} [42%] (41%) {38%} [40%] (44%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 45% {47%} [46%] (46%) {49%} [42%] (42%)
  • Chris Christie (R) 39% {34%} [37%] (38%) {36%} [41%] (42%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 47% (47%) {50%} [48%]
  • Marco Rubio (R) 38% (40%) {36%} [39%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 47% {47%} [48%] (48%) {51%} [50%]
  • Jeb Bush (R) 38% {36%} [37%] (39%) {36%} [37%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 48% (51%) {51%} [50%]
  • Ted Cruz (R) 38% (37%) {34%} [35%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 49% {49%} (49%)
  • Mike Huckabee (R) 39% {34%} (41%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 49%
  • Scott Walker (R) 38%

Survey of 1,077 Ohio voters was conducted March 17-28, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points. Party ID: 28% {28%} [32%] (29%) {32%} [31%] (29%) Democrat; 27% {26%} [28%] (29%) {28%} [26%] (28%) Republican; 35% {32%} [35%] (35%) {33%} [36%] (35%) Independent; 9% {13%} [6%] (8%) {7%} [7%] (7%) Other. Click here to view crosstabs. Results from the poll conducted January 22 – February 1, 2015 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted July 24-28, 2014 are in square brackets.Results from the poll conducted May 7-12, 2014 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted February 12-17, 2014 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 19-24, 2013 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted June 18-23, 2013 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 3:08 pm. Filed under 2016, Hillary Clinton, Poll Watch, Republican Party

Poll Watch: Quinnipiac Florida 2016 Presidential Survey

Quinnipiac Florida 2016 Presidential Poll

  • Jeb Bush (R) 45% (43%) {42%} [41%] (43%) {45%} [43%] (40%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 42% (44%) {49%} [49%] (49%) {47%} [50%] (51%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 46% (49%) {53%} [52%] (51%) {50%} [53%] (52%)
  • Marco Rubio (R) 44% (39%) {39%} [40%] (41%) {43%} [41%] (41%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 46% (50%) {53%} [55%] (53%) {51%}
  • Rand Paul (R) 43% (38%) {37%} [37%] (38%) {41%}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 44% (51%) {54%} [52%] (51%) {45%}
  • Chris Christie (R) 39% (33%) {33%} [34%] (35%) {41%}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 46%
  • Scott Walker (R) 40%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 48% (51%) [53%]
  • Mike Huckabee (R) 40% (34%) [35%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 48% (57%) (54%) {52%}
  • Ted Cruz (R) 39% (31%) (34%) {36%}

Survey of 1,087 Florida voters was conducted March 17-28, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points. Party ID: 32% (33%) {31%} [31%] (30%) {32%} [34%] (35%) Democrat; 29% (28%) {28%} [25%] (27%) {29%} [28%] (27%) Republican; 30% (30%) {32%} [34%] (35%) {32%} [30%] (31%) Independent; 9% (8%) {9%} [11%] (7%) {7%} [8%] (7%) Other. Click here to view crosstabs. Results from the poll conducted January 22 – February 1, 2015 are in parentheses.Results from the poll conducted July 17-21, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted April 23-28, 2014 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 22-27, 2014 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted November 12-17, 2013 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted June 11-16, 2013 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted March 13-18, 2013 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 11:07 am. Filed under 2016, Hillary Clinton, Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, Poll Watch, Republican Party

Poll Watch: Quinnipiac New York 2016 Presidential Survey

Quinnipiac New York 2016 Presidential Poll

  • Hillary Clinton (D) 54% (57%) {54%} [58%] (59%)
  • Chris Christie (R) 34% (31%) {34%} [31%] (32%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 58%
  • Marco Rubio (R) 31%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 58%
  • Scott Walker (R) 31%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 58% (60%) {60%}
  • Jeb Bush (R) 30% (29%) {29%}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 59% (61%) {61%}
  • Rand Paul (R) 31% (26%) {30%}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 58%
  • Mike Huckabee (R) 29%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 60%
  • Ted Cruz (R) 27%

Survey of 1,228 New York State voters was conducted March 11-16, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 2.8 percentage points. Party ID: 39% (43%) {40%} [40%] (44%) Democrat; 20% (19%) {22%} [21%] (19%) Republican; 31% (29%) {28%} [32%] (32%) Independent. Results from the poll conducted December 17-21, 2014 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted August 14-17, 2014 are in curly brackets.Results from the poll conducted February 6-10, 2014 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 11-17, 2013 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 8:00 am. Filed under 2016, Hillary Clinton, Poll Watch, Republican Party

Poll Watch: Emerson College Massachusetts 2016 Republican Primary Survey

Emerson College Massachusetts 2016 GOP Primary Poll

  • Jeb Bush 18.7%
  • Scott Walker 18.5%
  • Ben Carson 12.5%
  • Rand Paul 7.3%
  • Chris Christie 5.9%
  • Ted Cruz 5.6%
  • Mike Huckabee 3.3%

Survey of 216 Republican primary voters was conducted March 14-19, 2015.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 4:00 am. Filed under 2016, Jeb Bush, Republican Party, Scott Walker

March 30, 2015

Poll Watch: Emerson College Massachusetts 2016 Democratic Primary Survey

Emerson College Massachusetts 2016 Democratic Primary Poll

  • Hillary Clinton 42.6%
  • Elizabeth Warren 16.2%
  • Joe Biden 10.2%
  • Bernie Sanders 5.8%
  • Martin O’Malley 1.7%

Survey of 430 Democratic primary voters was conducted March 14-19, 2015.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 11:04 am. Filed under 2016, Democrats, Elizabeth Warren, Hillary Clinton, Poll Watch

Poll Watch: Quinnipiac New York 2016 Republican Primary Survey

Quinnipiac New York 2016 GOP Primary Poll

  • Jeb Bush 13%
  • Scott Walker 13%
  • Chris Christie 12%
  • Marco Rubio 10%
  • Rand Paul 8%
  • George Pataki 6%
  • Ben Carson 6%  
  • Ted Cruz 3%
  • Mike Huckabee 3%
  • Bobby Jindal 1%
  • Rick Perry 1%
  • John Kasich 1%
  • Rick Santorum 1%
  • Lindsey Graham 0%

Survey of 327 registered Republicans was conducted March 11-16, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 5.4 percentage points.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 4:00 am. Filed under 2016, Jeb Bush, Poll Watch, Republican Party, Scott Walker

March 29, 2015

Poll Watch: Emerson College Massachusetts 2016 Presidential Survey

Emerson College Massachusetts 2016 Presidential Poll

  • Hillary Clinton (D) 58.0%
  • Scott Walker (R) 38.0%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 58.6%
  • Jeb Bush (R) 38.0%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 60.7%
  • Rand Paul (R) 36.0%

Survey of 798 adults was conducted March 14-19, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 3.4 percentage points.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 4:00 am. Filed under 2016, Hillary Clinton, Poll Watch, Republican Party

March 28, 2015

Poll Watch: PPP (D) Florida 2016 Democratic Presidential Primary Survey

PPP (D) Florida 2016 Democratic Presidential Primary Poll

  • Hillary Clinton 58% [66%] (62%) {65%} [61%] (67%)
  • Joe Biden 14% [7%] (12%) {15%} [14%] (11%)
  • Elizabeth Warren 10% [8%] (3%) {4%} [1%] (2%)
  • Bernie Sanders 3%
  • Martin O’Malley 2% [0%] (1%) {0%} [3%] (0%)
  • Jim Webb 1%
  • Someone else/Undecided 11% [9%] (14%) {11%} [9%] (11%)

Survey of 371 Democratic primary voters was conducted March 19-22, 2015.  The margin of error is +/- 5.1 percentage points.  Political ideology: 32% [27%] (42%) {39%} [33%] (41%) Moderate; 30% [42%] (28%) {28%} [30%] (27%) Somewhat liberal; 22% [17%](18%) {18%} [22%] (16%) Very liberal; 11% [10%] (9%) {11%} [10%] (12%) Somewhat conservative; 5% [5%] (3%) {3%} [5%] (4%) Very conservative.  Results from the poll conducted June 6-9, 2014 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 15-18, 2013 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted January 11-13, 2013 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 3-4, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 31 – September 2, 2012 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 4:00 am. Filed under 2016, Democrats, Hillary Clinton, Poll Watch

March 27, 2015

BREAKING: Harry Reid to Retire

Democrats will have to defend the former Senate Majority leader’s seat in 2016, making this a prime GOP takeover opportunity with Gov. Brian Sandoval a likely candidate:

WASHINGTON — Senator Harry Reid, the tough tactician who has led Senate Democrats since 2005, will not seek re-election next year, bringing an end to a three-decade congressional career that culminated with his push of President Obama’s ambitious agenda against fierce Republican resistance.

Mr. Reid, 75, who suffered serious eye and facial injuries in a Jan. 1 exercise accident at his Las Vegas home, said he had been contemplating retiring from the Senate for months. He said his decision was not attributable either to the accident or to his demotion to minority leader after Democrats lost the majority in November’s midterm elections.

“I understand this place,” Mr. Reid said. “I have quite a bit of power as minority leader.”

Full story here.

by @ 11:05 am. Filed under 2016, Democrats, Republican Party

Poll Watch: PPP (D) Florida 2016 Republican Presidential Primary Survey

PPP (D) Florida 2016 GOP Presidential Primary Poll

  • Jeb Bush 25% [30%] (30%) {26%} [28%] (22%)
  • Scott Walker 17% [7%]
  • Marco Rubio 15% [14%] (29%) {31%} [22%] (24%)
  • Ben Carson 12%
  • Mike Huckabee 7% [7%] (9%) {11%} [11%] (10%)
  • Ted Cruz 6% [9%]
  • Chris Christie 4% [8%] (8%) {7%} [9%] (10%)
  • Rand Paul 4% [11%] (11%) {5%} [3%] (4%)
  • Rick Perry 3% (1%) {2%}
  • Not sure 6% [10%] (6%) {5%} [5%] (4%)
Survey of 425 Republican primary voters was conducted March 19-22, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 4.8 percentage points. Political ideology: 39% [41%] (40%) {36%} [42%] (40%) Somewhat conservative; 34% [28%] (27%) {35%} [34%] (33%) Very conservative; 20% [22%] (24%) {19%} [19%] (20%) Moderate; 5% [6%] (6%) {9%} [3%] (5%) Somewhat liberal; 2% [2%] (2%) {2%} [2%] (3%) Very liberal.  Results from the poll conducted June 6-9, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted March 15-18, 2013 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted January 11-13, 2013 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 3-4, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 31 – September 2, 2012 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 4:00 am. Filed under 2016, Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, Poll Watch, Republican Party

March 26, 2015

2016 Primary Calendar: Inaugural Edition

Setting the calendar for the primary season every four years is an intricate, messy, and sometimes insane dance involving dozens of entities with competing agendas — all of which equals great entertainment for pundits and political watchers like us.

The national political parties (represented by the RNC and DNC), the state parties, and the state governments (including one overly-influential Secretary of State) all have a vested interest in setting primary and caucus dates. In the best case scenario all of them work in tandem to bring about a unified end result from the myriad of moving pieces; in reality, that almost never happens. And in reality, we will probably not know the final primary and caucus calendar for another seven months or so.

Until then, it is interesting to speculate as to what that calendar will look like. There are a slew of primary calendars up on various sites around the internet all taking their best guess at the calendar, but most have very little in the way of explanation or fact behind them. Here’s what we know at this point in the story:

The 2008/2012 Hangover Laws

In the previous two presidential primary campaigns, many states rushed to move their primaries or caucuses closer to the start of the calendar in order to gain more influence over the nominating process. After seeing how this frontloading negatively impacted the campaigns, most states are showing signs of backing off and a willingness to move their dates back once again.

However, many of these states still have laws on the books dating back to 2007 or 2011 mandating an early primary date — and this is from where some of the confusion over the early calendars originates. For instance, New York is commonly listed as having a February 2 primary because of 2007 legislation; however, nobody believes the New York primary will actually occur on that date. Everybody expects the New York legislature to move their primary back to April. Other states with hangover laws include Michigan and Colorado, both of which are currently scheduled for February but widely expected to move back to March as well. (Florida had a hangover law until just last week, when Governor Scott signed a bill moving their primary back to the second Tuesday in March, which in 2016 would be March 15. Likewise, the Minnesota GOP and DFL parties recently agreed to move their caucus out of February back to March 1.)

The National Parties

The RNC has made more of an effort this time around than they ever have before to exert greater control over the calendar, releasing their expectations for the early calendar and threatening intense punishment for any state that breaks them.

Here’s what the RNC has called for:

  • February 2016: Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada
  • March 1-14: Any other states, but must award delegates proportionally
  • March 15 – June 3: Any other states, delegates to be awarded as desired

In order to keep other states from jumping into February, a la 2008 or 2012, the RNC also announced harsh penalties: your total delegate count gets reduced to 9 or ? of your original slate, whichever is smaller. That gives states like Florida, for instance, which has 99 delegates this year, a powerful reason to move out of February back to March.

One other item of interest: you may be wondering about the June 3 cutoff date for the end of the calendar. The RNC voted to have their convention incredibly early this year — rather than late August or early September, the 2016 national convention will be held July 18-21 in order to allow the GOP nominee earlier access to general election funds. Current regulations state that nominating contests must be held at least 45 days prior to the convention, meaning many states with current June primaries are going to have to move them earlier now.

After the RNC released that skeleton calendar, the DNC met and voted on their version of an early calendar. They passed the following:

  • February 1 – Iowa caucus
  • February 9 – New Hampshire primary
  • February 20 – Nevada caucus
  • February 27 – South Carolina primary
  • March 1 — All other states

Again, these dates aren’t binding because the state parties and/or state legislatures will ultimately decide the final dates (generally speaking, parties decide caucuses and legislatures decide primaries, because that is where the funding comes from for each). The DNC also passed their own version of frontloading penalties as well to discourage anyone from messing with this schedule.

So now, since states nearly always have their nominating contests for both parties on the same date, it is widely believed the RNC will endorse this proposal from the DNC and this will be our jumping off point for the 2016 election.

As an interesting sidenote, North Carolina passed a law last year legally tying themselves to South Carolina — by new North Carolina statute, their primary must be held on the Tuesday following the South Carolina primary. In the current calendar format, that would be March 1, which would work out fantastically because it’s the first date any other state can go without being penalized. But… if another state attempts to jump into February and causes the whole thing to back up into January, the North Carolina legislature might have some emergency action to take so they don’t get penalized.

Binding Caucuses

If you remember back to 2012, Minnesota and Colorado were able to jump close to the front of the line without having their delegate slate penalized. They were able to do this because of a loophole in the RNC rules: the parties in these states held caucuses that were non-binding; that is, delegate selection was not directly tied to the result of the presidential preference votes taken during the caucusing. This is what led to strange results like Rick Santorum winning both states by large margins (18% in Minnesota and 6% in Colorado) but Mitt Romney winning the Colorado delegates and Ron Paul winning the Minnesota delegates.

The RNC sought to eliminate those sorts of head-scratching results with another new rule: all caucuses must now be binding. In other words, whoever wins the presidential preference vote at a caucus must now get at least a plurality of the delegates as well. This seems to make a lot of sense, and it also comes with a bonus side effect: nobody can skirt the calendar punishments now by invoking the “non-binding” loophole. This means states like Minnesota and Colorado who went in February last cycle must now move back to March (which Minnesota has already done, as mentioned above, and which Colorado is widely expected to do).

Debates

In 2011-12, there were well over two dozen debates during the Republican primary, a fact the candidates and the voting public did not enjoy. In order to cut that down this cycle, the RNC has officially sanctioned a series of 12 debates. In 2011 the debates began in early May; in 2015 the first sanctioned debate will take place in late August. There will be one per month in 2015, one in January 2016, three in February, and two more in March. The final debate is dubbed as a “conservative media debate” with a date TBD.

Taking Shape

So taking all of that into consideration, here is how the 2016 primary calendar looks as of now (based off of widely expected moves, not necessarily on current laws that are going to be changed):

    • August 2015 — Fox News debate, Ohio
    • September 2015 — CNN/Ronald Reagan Library debate, California
    • October 2015 — CNBC debate, Colorado
    • November 2015 — Fox Business debate, Wisconsin
    • December 2015 — CNN debate, Nevada
    • January 2016 — Fox News debate, Iowa
  • February 1 – Iowa caucus
    • February — ABC News debate, New Hampshire
  • February 9 – New Hampshire primary
  • February 20 – Nevada caucus
    • February — CBS News debate, South Carolina
  • February 27 – South Carolina primary
    • February — NBC debate, Florida
  • March 1 — SUPER TUESDAY
  • Alabama primary (currently March 8)
  • Colorado caucus (currently February 2)
  • Georgia primary
  • Massachusetts primary
  • Minnesota caucus
  • Mississippi primary (currently March 8)
  • North Carolina primary
  • Texas primary
  • Vermont primary
  • Virginia primary
  • March 5 — Louisiana primary
  • March 8 — Michigan primary (currently February 23); Ohio primary
  • March 15 — Florida primary; Illinois primary; Missouri primary
  • March 22 — Arizona primary; Oklahoma primary (currently March 1)
  • March — Fox News debate, location TBD
  • March — CNN debate, location TBD

Miscellany

There are other things to watch for as this calendar continues to evolve and change shape. For instance, the Utah GOP is considering moving from a June primary to a March caucus (which would seem to benefit grassroots candidates). Nevada is considering changing from a caucus to a primary (which would seem to benefit establishment candidates and seriously hurt Rand Paul’s chances). And there continues to be talk of trying to cobble together a “Western Regional Primary” or an “SEC Primary” by states like Utah and Georgia, respectively, who are trying to convince all their neighboring states to hold nominating contests the same day they do. It remains to be seen whether any of those efforts will be fruitful (although as noted above, at the very least Alabama and Mississippi are expected to join Georgia on March 1). Finally, one would expect a number of states to look at moving to March 15 and creating a second Super Tuesday, since that is the first day delegates can be awarded in a winner-take-all fashion. While all the positioning and posturing happens, grab some popcorn and enjoy the dance!

by @ 9:51 am. Filed under 2016, 2016 Primary Calendar, Iowa Caucuses, New Hampshire Primary

Poll Watch: PPP (D) Florida 2016 Presidential Survey

  • Hillary Clinton (D) 48% (49%) {48%} [56%] (50%)
  • Marco Rubio (R) 46% (42%) {44%} [40%] (46%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 47% (46%) {46%} [53%] (49%)
  • Jeb Bush (R) 44% (44%) {45%} [40%] (44%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 46% (48%) {48%}
  • Rand Paul (R) 42% (40%) {42%}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 49% (49%) {48%}
  • Mike Huckabee (R) 44% (40%) {41%}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 48% (46%) {46%}
  • Chris Christie (R) 41% (38%) {38%}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 49% (51%) {50%}
  • Ted Cruz (R) 42% (36%) {39%}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 50%
  • Rick Perry (R) 42%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 49%
  • Ben Carson (R) 41%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 49%
  • Scott Walker (R) 41%
  • Joe Biden (D) 43%
  • Scott Walker (R) 43%
  • Elizabeth Warren (D) 42%
  • Scott Walker (R) 41%

Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Marco Rubio’s job performance?

  • Approve 45% (44%) {45%} [44%] (49%)
  • Disapprove 40% (41%) {40%} [43%] (36%)

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Jeb Bush?

  • Favorable 45% (50%) {51%} [50%] (51%)
  • Unfavorable 42% (35%) {35%} [37%] (35%)

Do you think Jeb Bush should run for President in 2016, or not?

  • He should 37% (31%) {35%} [33%] (32%)
  • He should not 52% (53%) {50%} [51%] (53%)

Do you think Marco Rubio should run for President in 2016, or not?

  • He should 35% (32%) {27%} [37%] (38%)
  • He should not 51% (53%) {59%} [53%] (49%)

Survey of 923 likely voters was conducted March 19-22, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 3.2 percentage points. Party ID: 41% (40%) {38%} [42%] (44%) Democrat; 41% (38%) {37%} [37%] (38%) Republican; 19% (22%) {25%} [22%] (18%) Independent/Other.  Political ideology: 32% (31%) {28%} [32%] (33%) Moderate; 24% (23%) {25%} [21%] (21%) Somewhat conservative; 17% (13%) {15%}[17%] (18%) Very conservative; 16% (19%) {22%} [17%] (17%)Somewhat liberal; 11% (13%) {11%} [13%] (12%) Very liberal. Results from the poll conducted September 4-7, 2014 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted June 6-9, 2014 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 15-18, 2013 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 11-13, 2013 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

March 25, 2015

POWER RANKINGS: March

1.  Scott Walker  Governor of Wisconsin

The governor of Wisconsin has become the surprising early frontrunner, using his battle-tested record in the Badger State to bolster his standing in Iowa and New Hampshire. The early polling shows Walker has the most appeal among the GOP’s widening factions. Still, he has stumbled over several easy questions and with early staffing problems, leading some to wonder if he can handle the grind of a national campaign.

2.  Jeb Bush  former Governor of Florida

Gov. Bush continues to consolidate the party establishment and lock up major bundlers and donors, but so far that insider strength is not reflected in the polls. Bush lags in the early states for someone with such a famous name and his numbers among conservatives are dreadful. Still, Bush’s massive financial edge could more than make up the difference.

3.  Marco Rubio  U.S. Senator from Florida

Sen. Rubio is methodically building his 2016 effort, focusing on ideas and policies rather than splashy headlines. His efforts are winning plaudits in the early states, and earning him some of the best early poll numbers on favorability and likability. Sen. Rubio has also worked hard to build a relationship with 2012 nominee Mitt Romney. The senator has locked up a number of top Romney staffers, with more likely to join up soon.

4.  Ted Cruz  U.S. Senator from Texas

The Tea Party favorite was the first candidate officially out of the gate, launching his campaign from Liberty University, a direct play to win over the evangelical base. Despite his doubters in the mainstream press, the Princeton and Harvard-educated lawyer is in a strong position to unite the Tea Party and evangelical factions of the GOP.

5.  Rand Paul  U.S. Senator from Kentucky

The libertarian-leaning senator remains a top contender due to his his strong grassroots organization in Iowa and New Hampshire. Paul has successfully capitalized on his father’s prior campaigns to gain a foothold in the early states. However, with the growing crisis in the Middle East and the pending nuclear deal with Iran, Paul will find himself at odds with a more hawkish GOP.

6.  Mike Huckabee  former Governor of Arkansas

The author and former Fox News host retains positive favorable numbers and a deep connection to the party’s evangelical Christian wing while struggling with the donor class. Despite strong name recognition, Huckabee hasn’t been able to build a viable fundraising network outside of the evangelical grassroots. He seems to be far from the candidate he was in 2008, with a number of odd gaffes kicking off his 2016 consideration.

7.  Bobby Jindal  Governor of Louisiana

Gov. Jindal has worked hard to win over the evangelical and activist base of the party without burning bridges to the establishment. His efforts haven’t shown up in the polls as of yet, but they could help him stick around as a top second choice for a number of the GOP’s disparate factions.

8.  Chris Christie  Governor of New Jersey

Christie’s numbers at home continue to drop, and many are now wondering if the governor will pass on the 2016 race entirely. His team, however, believes Christie is still the best candidate on the stump, and will engineer a comeback to the top tier in the town halls of New Hampshire.

9.  John Kasich  Governor of Ohio

With upcoming visits to early primary states, Kasich has started to generate real buzz that he’s interested in the 2016 race. With a record of success in the nation’s most important swing state, the Ohio governor could be a dark horse establishment prospect if Jeb Bush stumbles.

10.  Ben Carson  retired neurosurgeon from Maryland

The conservative firebrand continues to build towards a campaign, despite a series of gaffes that highlight his controversial stances on social issues and his lack of experience. Dr. Carson will have to improve dramatically to capitalize on the real buzz, and money, his prospects have generated.

Honorable Mention:  Rick Perry, Carly Fiorina, Mike Pence

No Chance: Lindsey Graham, Rick Santorum, Donald Trump

 

 

Poll Watch: Gravis Marketing/Howie Carr New Hampshire 2016 Democratic Primary Survey

Gravis Marketing/Howie Carr New Hampshire 2016 Democratic Primary Survey

  • Hillary Clinton 49%
  • Elizabeth Warren 20%
  • Bernie Sanders 12%
  • Joe Biden 5%
  • Martin O’Malley 2%
  • Jim Webb 2%

Gravis Insights, a nonpartisan research firm, conducted a random telephone survey of potential Republican and Democratic Primary voters in New Hampshire. The poll included 683 respondents for the Republican Primary and 427 for the Democratic Primary. The poll has a margin of error of ± 4% for the Republican Primary and ± 5%.

March 24, 2015

Poll Watch: Gravis Marketing/Howie Carr New Hampshire 2016 Republican Primary Survey

Gravis Marketing/Howie Carr New Hampshire 2016 Republican Primary Survey

  • Scott Walker 19%
  • Jeb Bush: 18%
  • Chris Christie 10%
  • Ron Paul 10%
  • Marco Rubio 6%
  • Ben Carson 6%
  • Ted Cruz 6%
  • Carly Fiorina
  • Mike Huckabee 4%
  • Rick Santorum 1%

Gravis Insights, a nonpartisan research firm, conducted a random telephone survey of potential Republican and Democratic Primary voters in New Hampshire. The poll included 683 respondents for the Republican Primary and 427 for the Democratic Primary. The poll has a margin of error of ± 4% for the Republican Primary and ± 5%.

Note: This poll was conducted March 18-19, 2015 – KWN

by @ 3:45 pm. Filed under 2016, New Hampshire Primary, Poll Analysis, Republican Party, Scott Walker

Time For Propagandismo

I don’t want to disillusion any readers, but most of what they read and hear in politics is deliberate, strategic and ongoing propaganda. That’s not all bad. This propaganda is, after all, the language of politics, and the secret is not only speaking the language, but knowing how to translate it.

We now enter the “announcement” season of the presidential campaign cycle. The “propagandismo” nature of our political language is in one of its purest forms in this season. Debates between candidates, and the conflict between their differing “propaganda” messages, have not yet taken place Media and commentary analysis challenging the propaganda is mostly ahead. Political consultants and other advisers have carefully crafted, after much discussion and editing, the persona, biographical “story,” and overall image of their candidates. The political horses are lining up to get into the starting gates. By the late autumn and early winter, we’re off to the race!

Not so long ago, announcing for president was a more simple and straightforward event. Radio, TV and the internet, as they came along, provide expanded platforms for the formal declaration of candidacy, but “in the old days” when a candidate decided to get “in”, he or she simply got “in.” Today, there are usually a series of orchestrated steps to the actual announcement. First, there is an often extended period of”speculation” during which a potential candidate gives interviews, answers media questions, and makes public speeches in which an “interest” in running for president is made of “hints,” “maybes,” and “possibles.” Then there is an announcement of the formation of an “exploratory committee” which propels a candidate into fundraising and more specific testing of the political waters. (This step arose primarily to fit the campaign funding laws introduced several years ago.) Finally, there is the formal announcement itself. Sometimes, a candidate only goes through step 1, or steps 1 and 2. We are now, in most cases, ready for those who will take step 3.

For the 2016 cycle, each major political party will have its own schedule of announcements. Senator Ted Cruz has just become the first to formally announce on the Republican (he skipped step 2, that is, he did not form an exploratory committee). He will be followed soon enough by a number of others, including predetermined “major” candidates Jeb Bush, Chris Christie and Scott Walker. Most of those who will go to step 3 have already formed exploratory committees. There is likely to be one or two surprise or late entries (like Texas Governor Rick Perry in 2012). On the Democratic side, the party and its potential candidates are awaiting the formal announcement of Hillary Clinton, reportedly set for April. Should she decide not to run, the number of formal candidates would likely increase dramatically. If she does announce, there will still be rivals in the race, most notably now former Maryland Governor Martin O’Malley, and possibly, Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren. Since a Democratic field without Clinton would be considered a relatively light one, the chance for surprise candidacies is high.

But no matter who, how many, and in which major party, the basic form of the announcement for president will most likely be similar. As I suggested at the outset, these announcements will inevitably attempt to control the narrative of the candidacy, and will be laden with propaganda.

The fresher and more original campaign launches, however, will gain at least some initial advantages. It will be instructive to observe which campaigns have figured this out.

______________________________________________________________________

-Copyright (c) 2015 by Barry Casselman. All rights reserved.

March 23, 2015

Ted Cruz Announcement Video

Midnight last night, Cruz posted to Twitter this 30 second video. Here’s the tweet:

Now he’s posted the longer version as shown below:

2016’s actual campaign announcements have begun.

by @ 6:23 am. Filed under 2016, 2016 Headlines, Campaign Advertisements, Ted Cruz

March 22, 2015

REPORT: Ted Cruz to Announce Presidential Bid Tomorrow

Per The New York Times:

Senator Ted Cruz intends to declare on Monday that he will run for president in 2016, making him the first major hopeful to formally enter the race, an aide to Mr. Cruz said.

Mr. Cruz, Republican of Texas, will make his announcement at Liberty University in Virginia, where he is expected to be a speaker at a convocation ceremony. His intention to declare his candidacy was first reported by The Houston Chronicle and an aide to Mr. Cruz, who requested anonymity, confirmed the report on Sunday.

Mr. Cruz will skip the habitual step of creating an exploratory committee as a precursor to a campaign, the newspaper reported, citing senior advisers to Mr. Cruz. The move seems designed to send a signal that he has completed the exploratory phase and is ready to run.

Full story here.

by @ 11:37 am. Filed under 2016, Republican Party, Ted Cruz

Race 4 2016 Headlines and Sunday Open Thread

The rules of open threads are as follows:

-No profanity

-No religious attacks

-No personal attacks on the family members of candidates

-No trolling or feeding of trolls

Other than that, have at it in the comments!

by @ 4:00 am. Filed under Headlines & Open Threads

March 21, 2015

Race 4 2016 Headlines and Saturday Open Thread

The rules of open threads are as follows:

-No profanity

-No religious attacks

-No personal attacks on the family members of candidates

-No trolling or feeding of trolls

Other than that, have at it in the comments!

by @ 4:00 am. Filed under Headlines & Open Threads

March 20, 2015

New RNC Web Ad: Stay Secretive, My Friends

Another new attack ad on Hillary Clinton. Feel free to comment below.

by @ 7:05 am. Filed under Campaign Advertisements, Hillary Clinton, Republican Party

Poll Watch: CNN/ORC 2016 National Presidential Survey

  • Hillary Clinton (D) 54% {58%} [58%] (54%)
  • Rand Paul (R) 43% {38%} [38%] (40%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 55% (56%)
  • Marco Rubio (R) 42% (37%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 55% {59%} [57%] (55%)
  • Mike Huckabee (R) 41% {38%} [38%] (39%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 55% {56%} [56%] (47%)
  • Chris Christie (R) 40% {39%} [37%] (47%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 55%
  • Scott Walker (R) 40%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 55% {54%} [59%] (58%)
  • Jeb Bush (R) 40% {41%} [36%] (36%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 56% {56%}
  • Ben Carson (R) 40% {35%}
National survey of 1,009 adults was conducted March 13-15, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted December 18-21, 2014 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 31 – February 2, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted December 16-19, 2013 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 4:00 am. Filed under 2016, Hillary Clinton, Poll Watch, Republican Party

March 19, 2015

Meet Mark Everson

Mark Everson is running for President. No, not exploratory committee – straight up an official candidate for President. Who’s Mark Everson you ask? Let’s talk about his credentials.

  • Certified Public Accountant
  • Department of Justice (Various roles including stint as special assistant to Attorney General on budget issues) – 1981-1986
  • United States Information Agency (Various roles, ending as Assistant Director) – 1981-1986
  • Immigration and Naturalization Services Deputy Commissioner of Immigration – 1986-1988
  • Office of Management and Budget (Serving as Controller and later Deputy Director for Management) – 2001-2003
  • IRS Commissioner – 2003-2007
  • Commissioner of the Indiana State Department of Workforce Development – 2008-2012

He also has a wealth of business experience in the private sector between his stints in appointed government roles. What is the center of his platform? Propose a single term for the Presidency, entitlement reform, as well as amnesty for illegal immigrants. Everson was involved heavily in implementation of the Immigration Reform and Control Act of 1986 while serving in INS.

Here’s his formal announcement video entitled, “A Letter to America.”

by @ 1:13 pm. Filed under 2016

Trump Exploring a 2016 Bid

Donald Trump is officially exploring a bid for President as a Republican. He posted a scanned version of his press release to his Facebook page yesterday. Here’s the text:

Today, Donald J. Trump, the globally renowned business mogul, announced he is forming an exploratory committee to determine whether he will run for the office of President of the United States of America.

Donald Trump stated, “I have a great love for our country, but it is a country that is in serious trouble. We have lost the respect of the entire world. Americans deserve better than what they get from their politicians — who are all talk and no action! I have built a great company, created thousands of jobs and built a tremendous net worth with some of the finest and most prestigious assets in the world — and very little debt! All Americans deserve the same opportunity. Our real unemployment rate is staggering while our manufacturing base is eroding on a daily basis. We must rebuild our infrastructure, control our borders, support local control of education, greatly strengthen our military, care for our veterans and put Americans back to work! We must stop other countries from totally taking advantage of our representatives who are being out-negotiated at every turn. I am the only one who can make America truly great again!”

In addition to forming an exploratory committee, Mr. Trump has made several key hires in primary states with staff in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina as well as a team of political advisers based in New York.

Corey Lewandowski, Senior Political Advisor to Mr. Trump said, “Mr. Trump has the vision and leadership skills to bring our country back to greatness. He has run an extremely successful corporation for many years. During that time, he has created thousands of jobs. Mr. Trump has a proven ability to present real solutions and get things done. He looks forward to meeting with Americans across the country and sharing those solutions to the serious problems we are facing.”

He ended the presser with details on an event in New Hampshire today. Is he serious? Only time will tell. This is not the first time Trump has flirted with public office. He lost the Reform Party nomination in 2000 and has previously teased at bids for President in 2008 and 2012 as well as teasing at bids for Governor of New York.

by @ 10:16 am. Filed under 2016, Donald Trump

The Looming Sunshine State Showdown

Making predictions in politics is a fool’s game. Making predictions in politics at this point in the race, this far removed from any actual voting, is like throwing darts while drunk and blindfolded at a dartboard in another bar. Given that, I’d like to go on the record and fling my dart: before any candidates have even formally announced their candidacy, I predict the 2016 Republican nomination will come down to Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio.

Depending on how you view the current state of the race, this could either be a boring or outlandish prediction. On one hand, Senator Rubio is mired in single digits in every poll, barely registered in the CPAC straw poll last month, and is not expected to be able to out-raise or out-organize Governor Bush. Nothing points to Rubio going anywhere in this crowded field-to-be. In fact, 2-4 times the number of voters are supporting the current hot candidate, Governor Walker, at the moment. The money seems to be on a Walker-Bush race once it actually gets under way.

But on the other hand… nobody should care about actual poll numbers at this early stage of the game. Right now, it’s all about potential, upside, ceiling… and all about impressing the right people (read: party insiders who have more influence over the nomination process than any voter would like to admit). And in those areas, Marco Rubio is absolutely shining while the sheen is already beginning to come off Governor Walker’s and Governor Bush’s campaigns.

Governor Jeb Bush
Bush’s campaign has seen a string of negative press recently, starting with the complete disaster of his major foreign policy speech last month. He mispronounced names, gave incorrect facts, and gave vague, non-descript answers to questions for which he should have been more than prepared. In a speech your campaign dubs as your first major policy speech on a national stage, people describing the end result as “uncertain,” “rushed,” “nervous,” “clunky,” and “vague” simply isn’t good.

Luckily for Governor Bush, nobody was paying attention to that speech so it didn’t hurt him in the polls. But again, actual poll numbers are secondary at this stage in the game. The more important question is this: what does this bumbling speech tell us about Jeb Bush moving forward? This was not an uncontrolled event or a last minute interview. This was a planned, scripted speech which the campaign put together to display Bush’s gravitas and seriousness as a candidate. Instead, what we got was something that looked much more akin to Jeb’s older brother.

Those family ties may end up being the biggest thing weighing down a Bush candidacy at this point, actually. Every speech or interview Governor Bush has done over the past month has included a line to the tune of, “I am my own man,” or “I am not my brother.” It’s a weak attempt to distance himself from the negatives of George W. Bush’s time as President, but what it really does is tell us which of Jeb’s negatives poll the worst with the focus groups.

Speaking of negatives, the latest Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll delivered more bad news for Governor Bush last week: a larger-than-expected 42% of Republican primary voters said they could not see themselves supporting Jeb Bush in the primary. The only two potential candidates who had higher negatives were Christie (57%) and Trump (74%). In a culture where voters want someone who will look to the future, 60% of voters said Bush represents a return to the past. And among all Americans, Bush’s positive ratings clocked in at a dismal 23% (4% very positive, 19% somewhat positive). That actually put Jeb’s favorability below his older brother’s, who clocked in at 35% in the same poll (and well below Hillary Clinton at 44%). In other words, at this point the GOP would do better running Dubya than Jeb.

So how will Governor Bush remain in the race and be one of the two finalists? Simple: insider support. The Republican Party insiders largely belong to the Bush family, and Jeb is leveraging that support in every way possible. He will have no trouble finding staffers to man his field offices, money men to bankroll his campaign, or organizers to assemble and maintain a campaign structure. All he has to do is hit the trail and be “good enough” for the average voter. He’ll easily last the first few rounds of the fight and be one of the final contenders.

Governor Scott Walker
Meanwhile, Governor Walker’s team has become well acquainted with the harsh reality of what becomes of candidates who rise too quickly too soon. After catching flack for mishandling the Giuliani comments and Obama religion issues, as well as comparing liberal protesters to ISIS terrorists, Governor Walker went on to be slammed for giving vague answers at a Club For Growth event (and appearing to know little about the issues he was answering), flip-flopping on immigration and ethanol subsidies, and most recently, the complete bungling of the Liz Mair/Iowa situation.

All of these missteps coming in such a short window of time have left the party insiders with severe doubts about Walker’s ability to hold up during the rest of the campaign — or, more importantly, during a general campaign against Hillary Clinton. Indeed, leaks have appeared in numerous articles of the past few weeks in which insiders question whether Walker is ready or has what it takes. Those sorts of questions have the potential to doom a Walker candidacy before the actual campaign even begins. To add insult to injury, however, the way in which Governor Walker handled the Liz Mair firing/resignation has turned the conservative blogosphere against him as well: RedState, NRO, HotAir, Ace of Spades, and several other prominent blogs have all attacked Governor Walker, leaving him without a solid base of support any longer. He was supposed to be the candidate who bridged the gap between the grassroots and the establishment, and he has now caused both sides to back away and question him. He was supposed to be the candidate running on strength and honesty, and so the lack of issue knowledge, flip-flopping on issues, and pandering to Iowa voters will be his Achilles’ heel. Unlike Governor Bush, he doesn’t have the apparatus to prop himself back up, either. Which leaves us with…

Senator Marco Rubio
Senator Rubio has yet to break 7% in any Republican primary poll, and often trails the likes of Rand Paul, Ben Carson, Scott Walker, Chris Christie, Mike Huckabee, and others. And yet, I would assert that at this point he is the best positioned of any candidate in the field. Why? Because of three things: what he’s shown during speeches and interviews, the attention he’s getting from GOP insiders, and the relationship he’s cultivating with Governor Mitt Romney.

The first, his speeches and interviews, comes down to his innate ability to communicate. He is clearly and hands down the most effective communicator of the potential Republican field, and every time he gets in front of people to speak it benefits his chances. (This is, obviously, in stark contrast to Hillary Clinton, and to some degree to Governors Bush and Walker as well.) His CPAC speech and subsequent Q&A didn’t result in a straw poll victory, but it did result in several movers and shakers in GOP circles sitting up and taking notice. Where other candidates-to-be majored in vague boilerplate and platitudes, Rubio majored in the specifics. Where others had difficulty differentiating themselves and answering the question, “Why are you running for president?” Rubio made insiders drool while imagining him saying, “I owe a debt to America I could never repay” during a debate with Hillary Clinton. Senator Rubio has been deliberate in limiting his appearances thus far so as not to fall into the same trap as Governor Walker has (and that Governor Romney did in 2007-08). But when he does speak, he makes sure he knows what he’s going to say and clearly anticipates the questions he will receive and practices how to answer them (unlike Governor Bush). Meanwhile, he’s working tirelessly behind the scenes to cobble together a donor network and campaign team that will never rival the size of Governor Bush’s, but will certainly rival (and perhaps best) its tenacity and loyalty.

All of that results in some tectonic movement in the rank-and-file of the GOP. They are watching Senator Rubio very carefully and optimistically, and if he proves to be the real deal during the spring and summer months, could land enough of their support to KO Governor Bush next winter. Just look at the tone of the insiders from this NRO piece:

Insider Buzz Grows for Marco Rubio… “Everybody’s talking about Rubio.” So says a top Republican operative who’s been in touch with nearly every potential presidential campaign, as well as with several top donors… “The Jeb boom is over and people are having second thoughts about Walker…” Marco Rubio, who now has many of the party’s top donors looking at him… his knowledgeable presentations and obvious political talent are nonetheless turning heads or, at least, enough of them.

That same WSJ/NBC News poll that delivered troubling data to Governor Bush also gave a glimpse of just how much potential Rubio has in this race: a full 56% of Republican voters could see themselves supporting Rubio — the highest level of support for any of the 14 candidates in the survey. In this primary, slow and steady may end up winning the race, and if that’s the case Senator Rubio will be the one holding the trophy at the finish line. And Rubio may well have a secret weapon up his sleeve — the support he’s receiving from none other than Mitt Romney.

When Romney announced he wasn’t running in 2016, he declared it was time for a new face of a younger generation to lead the party. It is becoming increasingly clear the Massachusetts Governor had Marco Rubio in mind when he said that: the Washington Post reports Romney and Rubio have had at least two “lengthy” phone calls, and many of Romney’s campaign staff and donors have come out praising the Florida Senator, including Lanhee Chen (Romney’s policy director), Spencer Zwick (national finance chairman), Rich Beeson (national political director), and Jim Merrill (New Hampshire strategist). In fact, Rubio’s campaign has already hired the latter two, and it’s probably just a matter of time before more of Team Romney jump aboard Rubio’s ship. Governor Bush will have the big name money bundlers in New York and Florida, and no one will raise more money than him this primary campaign, but if Romney gets the rest of his donor network to back Rubio it may make Rubio at least more competitive financially speaking.

And so as Governor Walker begins to fade due to a series of self-inflicted wounds, and other candidates like Ted Cruz, Rand Paul, Ben Carson, and Rick Perry hit their naturally low ceilings, the two serious candidates who will fight for the GOP nomination in 2016 will be Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio. One has inevitability on his side, which is a powerful force in GOP primaries (see McCain, 2008). The other has potential on his side, which can be an equally powerful force if harnessed and realized. I’ll predict those two as the two frontrunners come voting time, but it’s anybody’s guess as to which one will end up winning.

by @ 8:00 am. Filed under 2016, Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, Republican Party, Scott Walker

Poll Watch: CNN/ORC 2016 Democratic Nomination Survey

CNN/ORC 2016 Democratic Nomination Poll

  • Hillary Clinton 62% (61%) {66%} [65%] (67%) {64%} [63%] (65%)
  • Joe Biden 15% (14%) {8%} [9%] (8%) {13%} [12%] (10%)
  • Elizabeth Warren 10% (10%) {9%} [10%] (10%) [7%] (7%)
  • Bernie Sanders 3% (3%) {3%} [5%]
  • Martin O’Malley 1% (1%) {1%} [0%] (2%) {4%} [2%] (2%)
  • Jim Webb 1% (2%) {1%} [1%]

If Elizabeth Warren does not run:

  • Hillary Clinton 67%
  • Joe Biden 16%
  • Bernie Sanders 5%
  • Martin O’Malley 1%
  • Jim Webb 1%

Survey of 466 Democrats and Democratic-leaning Independents was conducted March 13-15, 2015.  The margin of error is +/- 4.5 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted February 12-15, 2015 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted December 18-21, 2014 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conductedNovember 21-23, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted July 18-20, 2014 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted March 7-9, 2014 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 18-20, 2013 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 6-8, 2013 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

March 18, 2015

Poll Watch: CNN/ORC 2016 Republican Nomination Survey

CNN/ORC 2016 GOP Nomination Poll

  • Jeb Bush 16% (14%) {23%} [14%] (8%) {12%} [13%] (9%) {10%} [6%] (10%)
  • Scott Walker 13% (11%) {4%} [5%] (5%) {5%} [7%]
  • Rand Paul 12% (10%) {6%} [8%] (12%) {14%} [13%] (16%) {13%} [13%] (13%)
  • Mike Huckabee 10% (16%) {6%} [10%] (12%) {11%} [10%] (10%) {14%}
  • Ben Carson 9% (8%) {7%} [11%]
  • Chris Christie 7% (7%) {13%} [9%] (13%) {8%} [9%] (8%) {10%} [24%] (17%)
  • Marco Rubio 7% (5%) {5%} [3%] (6%) {8%} [6%] (5%) {9%} [9%] (9%)
  • Ted Cruz 4% (3%) {4%} [7%] (8%) {9%} [7%] (8%) {8%} [10%] (7%)
  • Rick Perry 4% (3%) {4%} [5%] (11%) {6%} [8%] (11%) {8%} [7%] (6%)
  • John Kasich 2% (2%) {3%} [3%]
  • Lindsey Graham 1% (1%)
  • Bobby Jindal 1% (1%) {4%} [1%]
  • Rick Santorum 1% (3%) {2%} [2%] (3%) {4%} [2%] (3%) {4%} [6%] (5%)
  • Carly Fiorina 0% (1%)

Survey of 450 Republicans and GOP-leaning Independents was conducted March 13-15, 2015.  The margin of error is +/- 4.5 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted February 12-15, 2015 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted December 18-21, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted November 21-23, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted July 18-20, 2014 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted May 29 – June 1, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted May 2-4, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted March 7-9, 2014 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted January 31 – February 2, 2014 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 18-20, 2013 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 6-8, 2013 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 5:19 pm. Filed under 2016, Jeb Bush, Poll Watch, Republican Party

Rand Paul to Announce Presidential Bid Next Month

Per USA Today:

Sen. Rand Paul will announce he is running for president during an April 7 rally at the Galt House in Louisville.

Supporters close to Paul, speaking on condition of anonymity, said that Paul’s campaign apparatus has begun making phone calls to supporters in Kentucky and around the country to invite them to the event.

One source said that while Paul could announce on that day that he would not seek the Republian nomination, “you could knock me over with a feather if that’s what he does.”

Full story here.

by @ 11:08 am. Filed under 2016, Rand Paul

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