April 28, 2015

Acceptability and the Big Three

The Cook Political Report, run by Charlie Cook, is one of the most well-respected political organizations in the country — not to mention one of the most impressively accurate in its electoral predictions. So we should all sit up and take note when they publish an article by their national editor, Amy Walter, with this sentence:

At the end of the day, when you put all the assets and liabilities on the table, it’s hard to see anyone but Rubio, Bush or Walker as the ultimate nominee.

That may seem like a no-brainer to some of us, but in a field that will potentially have 20 challengers, for a prediction made ten months before any actual voting takes place, and for such a reputable organization, this qualifies as a pretty significant assertion.

The futures betting sites (or what’s left of them after Intrade got shut down after the last presidential election) generally agree with Ms. Walter. Sites like PredictWise and Betfair give the trio of Rubio, Bush, and Walker a combined 70% chance at the nomination. (Bush currently comes in at 31%, with Rubio at 20 and Walker at 19.) In fact, the only other two candidates who are even given more than a 2% shot are Rand Paul (4%) and Mike Huckabee (6%).

In the latest Quinnipiac poll (a survey where Rubio, Bush, and Walker have all taken a turn leading the pack in the past several months), we can see just how strong the support for the trio is: they are the only three candidates in double digits in the topline results. But it goes even further than that: when Bush supporters were asked who their second choice was, Rubio and Walker were the only ones in double digits again (at 18% and 12%, respectively). When Walker supporters were asked their second choice, Rubio and Bush again clock in as #1 and #2, with 20% and 12% respectively.

In other words, if you chop of one of the three heads of this hydra, the others will only get stronger.

That’s a good reason to predict that one of those three will end up as the Republican nominee. It’s also one of the reasons I will go on record as predicting this primary will be less divisive than many think it will be.

With twenty candidates, it’s easy to imagine a scenario where the party splinters, messy intraparty fighting breaks out, and a brokered convention becomes a reality in Cleveland. Every slice of the Republican electorate will back their preferred candidate until the bitter end, with primary and caucus winners walking away with less than 20% of the vote. It’s going to be a messy, bitter fight, right?

I don’t think so.

A comparison between our potentially massive 2016 field of candidates and the fields of 2008 and 2012 is quite instructive on this point. In 2008, the three-headed frontrunning hydra was comprised of Rudy Giuliani, John McCain, and Mitt Romney. None of the three satisfied the grassroots side of the party — who could forget the campaigns against “Rudy McRomney”? The unease with the three moderate frontrunners led to a shifting groundswell of support, first for Sam Brownback, then for Mike Huckabee, and finally in the epic failure that was the Fred Thompson campaign. Eventually, the activist side of the party gave in to McCain’s inevitable nomination, but not before Huckabee stayed in far longer than he should have (“I didn’t major in math, I majored in God,” anyone?), leaving lasting wounds in the party.

And in 2012, the field only had one legitimate frontrunner: it was Mitt Romney versus everyone else. Some commentators even referred to the GOP primary as “Mitt and the Munchkins.” The fact that Governor Romney had to expend so much effort, time, and resources to dispatch ridiculously weak candidates like Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich displayed again how deeply uneasy and dissatisfied the party was with the GOP frontrunner. The White Knight candidacy of Rick Perry is also illustrative of this fact; likewise, many folks were pining for Mike Huckabee, Sarah Palin, Mitch Daniels, Paul Ryan, Jeb Bush, Haley Barbour, or Chris Christie to enter the race late into the campaign.

Our 2016 frontrunners stand in stark contrast to those of 2008 and 2012. In fact, after two elections where “dissatisfied” was the word most often used to describe the field, the opposite might be said of 2016. At this early stage, it seems everyone could be quite satisfied. The establishment-type folks who never like Romney find a champion in Jeb Bush — but even if Bush falters, they are okay with Rubio and Walker. The grassroots folks who never trusted McCain or Romney are finding plenty to like in Walker and Rubio. Even if they may be backing Cruz or Huckabee or Perry right now, when those candidates fall short those voters are generally okay with Walker or Rubio as well.

In 2016, there will be little yearning for a white knight candidate — partially because the field will be so large to start with, but mostly because the three frontrunners are acceptable to the varying factions in the GOP. And so this primary campaign will take on a different look: there will be no “flavor-of-the-month” candidates this time around because voters will not be attempting to find acceptable alternatives. There will be the big three, Bush and Rubio and Walker, who will ebb and flow, but remain the big three. And there will be movement in the second and third tier candidates below them as candidates like Huckabee and Cruz and Perry catch fire and cool off, but that movement will do little to impact the ultimate outcome of the race.

As Amy Walter put it, at this point in the Republican primary race it’s hard to see anyone other than Rubio, Bush, or Walker as the ultimate nominee.

April 27, 2015

Who is the R42016 Readers’ Choice For President?

This is obviously a very unscientific poll, but as the nomination cycle begins to get into full swing, it feels like a good time to take a survey among our readers here to see how much support the various candidates have.

In comments section, list your top two (2) choices for the GOP nomination for president.  I will leave this thread open for a few days and then create a new thread later in the week with the results.

For those not paying attention, the candidates or potential candidates are, in alphabetical order, as follows:

Gov. Jeb Bush (FL)

Dr. Ben Carson

Gov. Chris Christie (NJ)

Sen. Ted Cruz (TX)

Gov. Bob Ehrlich (MD)

Mrs. Carly Fiorina

Sen. Lindsey Graham (SC)

Gov. Mike Huckabee (AR)

Gov. Bobby Jindal (LA)

Gov. John Kasich (OH)

Rep. Peter King (NY)

Gov. George Pataki (NY)

Sen. Rand Paul (KY)

Gov. Mike Pence (IN)

Gov. Rick Perry (TX)

Sen. Marco Rubio (FL)

Sen. Rick Santorum (PA)

Gov. Rick Snyder (MI)

Mr. Donald Trump

Gov. Scott Walker (WI)

by @ 2:36 pm. Filed under 2016, Misc.

April 26, 2015

Poll Watch: Fox News 2016 Presidential Survey

  • Hillary Clinton (D) 46% {47%} [47%] (51%) {52%} [51%]
  • Rand Paul (R) 43% {45%} [44%] (40%) {41%} [42%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 45% {45%} [48%] (49%) {52%} [51%] (51%)
  • Jeb Bush (R) 41% {45%} [43%] (42%) {39%} [42%] (38%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 46% {47%}
  • Marco Rubio (R) 42% {43%}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 47% {48%} (52%)
  • Ted Cruz (R) 42% {42%} (36%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 46% {48%}
  • Scott Walker (R) 40% {42%}

National survey of 1,012 registered voters was conducted April 19-21, 2015 under the joint direction of Anderson Robbins Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R). The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted March 29-31, 2015 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted January 25-27, 2015 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted December 7-9, 2014 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted July 20-22, 2014 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 13-15, 2014 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 2-4, 2014 are in parentheses.

Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 4:00 am. Filed under 2016, Hillary Clinton, Poll Watch, Republican Party

April 25, 2015

Poll Watch: Fox News 2016 Republican Nomination Survey

Fox News 2016 GOP Nomination Poll

  • Marco Rubio 13% [8%] (5%) {9%} [8%] (8%)
  • Scott Walker 12% [15%] (9%) {4%} [5%] (6%)
  • Rand Paul 10% [9%] (13%) {11%} [14%] (11%)
  • Jeb Bush 9% [12%] (15%) {12%} [14%] (12%)
  • Mike Huckabee 9% [10%] (13%)
  • Ted Cruz 8% [10%] (4%) {9%} [7%] (12%)
  • Ben Carson 6% [11%] (10%)
  • Chris Christie 6% [4%] (6%) {10%} [15%] (16%)
  • Donald Trump 5% [3%]
  • John Kasich 2% [1%] (2%) {2%}
  • Rick Perry 2% [3%] (4%) {12%} [5%] (3%)
  • Bobby Jindal 1% [2%] (3%) {4%} [2%]
  • Lindsey Graham 1% [0%] (1%)
  • George Pataki 1% [1%]
  • Rick Santorum 1% [2%] (2%) {3%} [5%] (3%)
  • Carly Fiorina 0% [1%]

National survey of 383 likely Republican primary voters was conducted April 19-21, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 5 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted March 29-31, 2015 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted January 25-27, 2015 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted July 20-22, 2014 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 13-15, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted December 14-16, 2013 are in parentheses.

Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 4:00 am. Filed under 2016, Marco Rubio, Poll Watch, Republican Party

April 24, 2015

Hillary’s Replacement?

The persistent question at this stage of the 2016 presidential cycle is about what might happen if Hillary Clinton’s burgeoning controversies remove her as a candidate for the Democratic nomination.

The commonplace answer to this question has been that, after Hillary, there is no truly formidable candidate. The names of Elizabeth Warren, Martin O’Malley, Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders. Lincoln Chaffee, Brian Schweitzer, and James Webb have been put forward, but none of these seem to have the stature and political skill to be able to confront successfully the eventual Republican nominee for president in 2016.

“Who is the Barack Obama of 2016?” is what many Democrats have been asking.

There is a potential candidate, however, that no one has been talking about — other than as a possible vice presidential candidate — who might be the surprise replacement for Mrs. Clinton.

Her name is Amy Klobuchar, and she is the senior senator from Minnesota, and in her second term. Prior to her election to the U.S. senate in 2006, she was the chief prosecutor (county attorney) of the largest county in Minnesota (that includes Minneapolis). Prior to that she was a legal adviser to Walter Mondale. She has degrees from Yale and the University of Chicago Law School

She is the most popular elected official in the Gopher state, well-liked by her colleagues in the senate, and is 54 years old. She is married to an attorney/college professor, and has a 20 year-old daughter.

Although not yet vetted for national office, she seems free of scandal.

Her critics cite her careful avoidance of controversial issues in the senate. Although she has sponsored some legislation, she has not put forward any major legislation of her own. She has allowed the junior senator from Minnesota, Al Franken, to be the lightning rod for most negative political stories in the state. She has a consistently liberal voting record, although she has encouraged an image of being a moderate Democrat.

Should Hillary Clinton withdraw from the presidential race, or her standing with Democrats decline precipitously, the leading alternative, as of this date, would be Klobuchar’s senate colleague, Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts (who has demonstrated considerable liberal support in national polls). Mrs. Warren has so far said she is not a candidate for president in 2016, but should the Clinton campaign falter, she is expected to change her mind. In spite of her popularity with very liberal Democratic grass roots voters, Mrs. Warren might be considered too polarizing a left wing figure to be a successful candidate in November. Senator Klobuchar’s track record and more moderate image might be a very attractive alternative to delegates in Philadelphia in the summer of 2016 at the Democratic convention.

——————————————————————————————
Copyright (c) 2015 by Barry Casselman. All rights reserved.

The Twenty Republicans Who Want to be President – And When They’ll Announce

There are, give or take a few less serious candidates, twenty people who want to be the Republican nominee for President in 2016. Three of them have already officially announced their intentions. Three more have leaked the dates of their upcoming announcements, and still another nine have hinted at when they will announce.

Here’s what we know:

March 22 Ted Cruz
April 7 Rand Paul
April 13 Marco Rubio
May 4 Ben Carson
Carly Fiorina
May 5 Mike Huckabee
”Late April at the earliest” Mike Pence
May Lindsey Graham
”Late spring” Rick Santorum
”Late spring or early summer” Chris Christie
”May or June” Rick Perry
June Bobby Jindal
June Donald Trump
”This summer” Bob Ehrlich
Summer (after legislative session) Scott Walker
Unknown Jeb Bush
John Kasich
Peter King
George Pataki
Rick Snyder


This has the potential to be the largest field in a primary campaign in history. Of course, not all 20 people on that list will decide to run, but the question at the moment seems to be: at this rate, who will decide to sit it out? Huckabee is staffing up, Perry is making hires, Christie looked like he wouldn’t run for awhile but now seems to be back in the mix, Peter King says he knows he can’t win but wants to run anyway just to stop Rand Paul and Ted Cruz… really, out of that list Rick Snyder and Bob Ehrlich are the two who seem least likely to run. Even if you have five decide not to run, that still leaves you with an incredible 15 candidates vying for the Republican nomination.

The other thing a list like this serves to highlight is the impossibility debate moderators are going to have once the calendar flips to August. How do you get 15-20 candidates on a stage — and then, how do you allow them to say anything substantive in the incredibly limited amount of time each of them will have?

Historically, of course, several candidates drop out of the race in the summer months, and several more drop out in the fall and winter leading up to the Iowa caucuses. So now, it’s prediction time: how many candidates from the list above will end up running? Who will compete in the Iowa Straw Poll? Who will be on stage for the first debate? And who will make it all the way to the Iowa caucuses?

by @ 10:00 am. Filed under 2016, Republican Party

Poll Watch: Quinnipiac 2016 Presidential Survey

Quinnipiac 2016 Presidential Poll

  • Hillary Clinton (D) 45% [46%] [50%]
  • Marco Rubio (R) 43% [41%] [34%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 46% [47%] (46%) {49%} [49%] (48%) {49%} [53%] (50%) {49%}
  • Rand Paul (R) 42% [41%] (41%) {40%} [39%] (41%) {40%} [36%] (38%) {41%}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 45% [46%] (43%) {47%} [46%] (41%) {42%} [49%] (46%) [45%]
  • Chris Christie (R) 40% [39%] (42%) {38%} [38%] (42%){43%} [36%] (40%) [37%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 47% [47%] (46%) {49%}
  • Mike Huckabee (R) 42% [40%] (41%) {40%}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 46% [48%]
  • Scott Walker (R) 41% [39%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 48% [48%] (48%) [50%] (50%) {51%} [54%]
  • Ted Cruz (R) 41% [38%] (37%) [35%] (37%) {36%} [31%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 46% [45%] (46%) {48%} [49%] (48%) {48%}
  • Jeb Bush (R) 39% [42%] (41%) {41%} [38%] (39%) {40%}
 National survey of 1,353 registered voters was conducted April 16-21, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 2.7 percentage points.  Party ID: 32% [29%] (30%) {31%} [29%] (31%) {32%} [35%] (32%) {33%} [34%] Democrat; 25% [32%] (31%) {26%} [26%] (26%) {26%} [24%] (23%) {27%} [25%] Republican; 34% [28%] (27%) {35%} [36%] (34%) {35%} [31%] (35%) {33%} [34%] Independent; 9% [11%] (12%) {7%} [9%] (9%) {7%} [9%] (9%) {7%} [7%] Other/Don’t know. Race: 73% [73%] (74%) {73%} [74%] (74%) {72%} [72%] White; 12% [13%] (12%) {13%} [11%] (12%) {12%} [12%] Black; 6% [7%] (7%) {7%} [8%] (7%) {7%} [8%] Hispanic; 8% [7%] (7%) {8%} [7%] (6%) {8%} [8%] Other. Results from the poll conducted February 26 – March 2, 2015 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted November 18-23, 2014 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted June 24-30, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted January 15-19, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted December 3-9, 2013 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted November 6-11, 2013 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 23-29, 2013 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted June 28 – July 8, 2013 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted May 22-28, 2013 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 27 – March 4, 2013 are in square brackets.

Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 9:00 am. Filed under 2016, Democrats, Hillary Clinton, Poll Watch, Republican Party

Poll Watch: Quinnipiac 2016 Democratic Nomination Survey

  • Hillary Clinton 60% (56%) {57%} [58%] (65%) {66%} [61%] (65%)
  • Joe Biden 10% (10%) {9%} [9%] (8%) {8%} [11%] (13%)
  • Bernie Sanders 8% (4%) {4%}
  • Martin O’Malley 3% (0%) {1%} [1%] (1%) {0%} [0%] (1%)
  • Jim Webb 1% (1%) {1%}
  • Lincoln Chafee 0%
  • Don’t know 14% (14%) {14%} [15%] (13%) {12%} [15%] (14%)

National survey of 569 registered Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters was conducted April 16-21, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 4.1 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted February 26 – March 2, 2015 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted November 18-23, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted June 24-30, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted January 15-19, 2014 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted December 3-9, 2013 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 23-29, 2013 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted April 25-29, 2013 are in parentheses.

Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

Poll Watch: Quinnipiac 2016 Republican Nomination Survey

Quinnipiac 2016 GOP Nomination Poll

  • Marco Rubio 15% (5%) {3%} [6%] (8%) {7%} [12%] (19%)
  • Jeb Bush 13% (16%) {14%} [10%] (11%) {11%} [11%] (10%)
  • Scott Walker 11% (18%) {6%} [8%] (6%) {5%} [4%] (2%)
  • Ted Cruz 9% (6%) {5%} [8%] (9%) {13%} [10%]
  • Rand Paul 8% (6%) {8%} [11%] (13%) {14%} [17%] (15%)
  • Chris Christie 7% (8%) {11%} [10%] (12%) {17%} [13%] (14%)
  • Mike Huckabee 7% (8%) {7%} [10%]
  • Ben Carson 3% (7%) {9%}
  • Rick Perry 3% (1%) {3%} [3%]
  • Lindsey Graham 2% (1%)
  • John Kasich 2% (1%) {2%} [2%] (2%) {2%}
  • Rick Santorum 2% (2%) {2%} [2%]
  • Carly Fiorina 1%
  • Bobby Jindal 1% (2%) {3%} [1%] (3%) {3%} [3%] (3%)
  • Don’t know 14% (17%) {19%} [20%] (22%) {17%} [19%] (18%)

Survey of 567 registered Republican and GOP-leaning voters was conducted April 16-21, 2015.  The margin of error is +/- 4.1 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted February 26 – March 2, 2015 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted November 18-23, 2014 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted June 24-30, 2014 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 15-19, 2014 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted December 3-9, 2013 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 23-29, 2013 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 26 – April 1, 2013 are in parentheses.

Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 4:00 am. Filed under 2016, Marco Rubio, Poll Watch, Republican Party

April 23, 2015

2016 Primary Calendar: Ready, Ames, Fire Edition

There has been quite a bit of movement and clarification to the 2016 primary calendar already, even at this early stage of the campaign — which means it must be time for a calendar update!

(Also, please note: the most up-to-date version of this primary calendar will always be available by clicking the “2016 Primary/Caucus & Debate Calendar” tab at the top of the page.)

Let’s start at the beginning of the calendar, which for this election cycle means the Ames Straw Poll — or, beginning this year, the Iowa Straw Poll. That’s correct, armchair pundits, the quadrennial circus that is the Iowa GOP’s main fundraiser will no longer be held in Ames. Instead, they’ll be moving down the road a few miles to the town of Boone, which won a bidding process to host the festivities.

After John McCain, Fred Thompson, Rudy Giuliani, Mitt Romney, and Rick Perry all skipped the straw poll the past couple of elections (with McCain and Romney eventually winning the nomination), and after Iowa Governor Branstad came out publicly in favor of ending the spectacle, everyone wondered if there was even going to be a straw poll this year. But when the Iowa Republican Party got together to vote on it last month, they unanimously agreed: the money it brings in is worth the lowering of dignity it requires of candidates and the electoral process in general. (Okay, so that might be a slightly skeptical angle on it…)

At the meeting where they voted to keep the straw poll alive and award the town of Boone as its host, they also set the date of the festivities: Saturday, August 8. That means in just over one hundred days, the first ballots will be cast that will serve to help winnow this increasingly massive GOP field.

Following the straw poll news, Fox News and the RNC announced the location and date for the first GOP debate on the calendar. Previously, we just knew it would be sometime in August and somewhere in Ohio. Now we know the first debate will take place in Cleveland on Saturday, August 15. The RNC Convention will be held in Cleveland in the summer of 2016, and so the GOP and the city have embraced the slogan, “Start Here. Finish Here.” with this debate announcement.

An interesting side note here: in 2011/12, there were three debates held prior to the Ames Straw Poll, including one in Ames on the eve of the poll itself. Those debates are arguably what helped propel Michele Bachmann to temporary frontrunner status in Iowa and enabled her to win the straw poll (and what helped sink Tim Pawlenty’s candidacy as well). This time around, there will be no debates prior to the Iowa Straw Poll, which will change the dynamics on the ground significantly (assuming, of course, that any candidates actually commit to playing the straw poll game this year).

Following the Fox News debate, CNN and the Reagan Library have also now announced the date of the next GOP debate in Simi Valley: Wednesday, September 16. Given the old axiom (which largely holds true) that people don’t pay attention to politics before Labor Day, this will most likely be the first debate that Americans really watch. It will be interesting to see how many candidates make it through the summer to actually attend the debate, and also how many candidates CNN invites.

No other debates have announced specifics yet, but what we do know is on the calendar below.

There are some updates to the 2016 side of the calendar as well, when actual votes start being cast. First, down south it appears that the so-called SEC primary is not going to happen now due to some political hardball. If you’re new to these discussions, Georgia, who is holding its primary on March 1 (the first legal date mandated by the RNC), has been trying to convince all of its neighbors to join them on the same date to create a de facto regional primary which would benefit southern candidates. This “SEC Primary” was supposed to include six states: AR, TN, LA, MS, AL, and GA. Well, Georgia and Tennessee are already on board and have legally committed to March 1. Legislation is going through the Alabama legislature right now to move to March 1, and everyone expects it to pass. That leaves Arkansas, Louisiana, and Mississippi, where the picture isn’t so rosy if you’re an SEC primary proponent.

In Arkansas, a bill was introduced in the state legislature to move the presidential primary to March 1, and Governor Hutchison expressed strong support for it. The bill, however, died in the House after representatives expressed concern over the extra cost of creating another primary (the bill would have left the other state primaries in their current slot in May). There’s a second bill that would move all of the primaries together from May up to March 1, but there’s little support for it, and the Governor would have to call the legislature into special session to pass it — so it looks like Arkansas is the first to RSVP “No” to the party.

In Mississippi, the opposite happened: the bill to move the primary to March 1 cruised through the legislature, but was then squashed by the Lieutenant Governor in a strange political power play that stretches far beyond this one piece of legislation. There is a whole messed up web of political intrigue currently going on in Mississippi state government, and their spot in the SEC primary looks to be collateral damage in the war. Mississippi will remain one week later on March 8.

And in Louisiana, they are in the midst of budget fights that might result in the Bayou State not even holding a primary at all. Remember, primaries are generally paid for by the state, whereas caucuses are generally paid for by political parties. In Louisiana, they have long had an odd system where some of their delegates are chosen via primary and some via caucuses; this year, due to budget constraints, the state is on the verge of eliminating the primary and just letting the parties pay for caucuses to elect delegates. If Louisiana does hold a primary, it will likely remain on March 5, in between the mini-SEC primary and the Mississippi primary.

Aside from all that mess down south, the following states have been updated on our 2016 calendar today:

  • North Carolina — Recall that last year, North Carolina passed a law tethering themselves to the South Carolina primary. This week, in order to avoid possible penalties should SC need to move up, they passed another bill untethering themselves from their southern neighbor. Their primary will now be on the first Tuesday after the first Monday in March (March 8 this time around).
  • Ohio — state legislators voted on Wednesday to move the primary from March 8 to March 15 in order to make the primary winner-take-all.
  • Idaho — The GOP wanted to have caucuses on March 1, the state legislature voted to hold a primary on March 8, and the state GOP essentially said, “Okay, if you want to pay for it, we’ll move back to March 8.”
  • Connecticut — Republican lawmakers attempted to move the primary up from April to March but the Democratic legislature killed the bill.
  • Utah — the state eliminated the funding for a primary; therefore, each party now chooses a date for their caucuses. The Utah Democratic Party has chosen March 22, which is where we’ve penciled the GOP caucus in on our calendar as well (rumor strongly suggests the GOP is eyeing a March date as well). This date will, of course, potentially change when the state GOP makes its final decision.
  • New York — state officials and legislators are still arguing over when to hold their primary; the only thing decided for sure is that it will not be in February. We’ve tentatively penciled them in for March 1, which is the date the NY GOP party is fighting for.

Phew. With all that being said, here is the most up-to-date 2016 calendar yet:

August 8, 2015 Iowa Straw Poll Boone, IA
August 15, 2015 Fox News/Ohio GOP Debate Cleveland, OH
September 16, 2015 CNN/Ronald Reagan Library Debate Simi Valley, CA
October CNBC Debate CO
November Fox Business Debate WI
December CNN Debate NV
January 2016 Fox News Debate IA
February 1, 2016 Iowa Caucuses
February 2016 ABC News Debate NH
February 9, 2016 New Hampshire Primary
February 20, 2016 Nevada Caucus
February 2016 CBS News Debate SC
February 27, 2016 SC Primary
February 2016 NBC Debate FL
March 1, 2016 Super Tuesday: AL, CO, GA, MA, MN, NY, TN, TX, VT, VA
March 5, 2016 Louisiana Primary
March 8, 2016 Idaho, Michigan, Mississippi, North Carolina Primaries; Hawaii Caucuses
March 15, 2016 Florida, Illinois, Missouri, Ohio Primaries
March 22, 2016 Arizona, Oklahoma Primaries; Utah Caucuses
March 2016 Fox News Debate TBD
March 2016 CNN Debate TBD
April 5, 2016 Maryland, Wisconsin Primaries
April 26, 2016 Connecticut, Delaware, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island Primaries
May 3, 2016 Indiana Primary
May 17, 2016 Oregon Primary
May 24, 2016 Arkansas Primary
June 7, 2016 California, New Jersey, South Dakota Primaries
by @ 10:00 am. Filed under 2016, 2016 Primary Calendar, Iowa Caucuses, New Hampshire Primary

Poll Watch: PPP (D) New Hampshire 2016 Presidential Survey

PPP (D) New Hampshire 2016 Presidential Poll

  • Hillary Clinton (D) 49% {50%} [51%] (52%)
  • Rand Paul (R) 40% {37%} [41%] (41%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 49%
  • Scott Walker (R) 40%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 50% (52%)
  • Marco Rubio (R) 38% (38%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 51%
  • Rick Perry (R) 38%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 51%
  • Ben Carson (R) 38%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 51%
  • Mike Huckabee (R) 38%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 49% {49%} [49%]
  • Jeb Bush (R) 36% {38%} [40%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 51% {43%} [43%]
  • Chris Christie (R) 36% {39%} [39%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 52% {51%} [50%]
  • Ted Cruz (R) 37% {32%} [38%]
  • Joe Biden (D) 44%
  • Scott Walker (R) 40%
  • Elizabeth Warren (D) 45%
  • Scott Walker (R) 40%

Survey of 747 New Hampshire voters was conducted April 9-13, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 3.6 percentage points. Party ID: 30% {27%} [30%] (29%) Republican; 28% {28%} [31%] (32%) Democrat; 43% {44%} [39%] (39%) Independent/Other. Political ideology: 32% {34%} [33%] (31%) Moderate; 21% {18%} [19%] (18%) Somewhat liberal; 20% {25%} [21%] (23%) Somewhat conservative; 15% {10%} [12%] (13%) Very liberal; 12% {13%} [15%] (15%) Very conservative.Results from the poll conducted January 9-12, 2014 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 13-16, 2013 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 19-21, 2013 are in parentheses.

Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

Poll Watch: FDU PublicMind New Jersey 2016 Republican Primary Survey

FDU PublicMind New Jersey 2016 GOP Presidential Primary Poll

  • Chris Christie 20% (51%)
  • Scott Walker 14%
  • Jeb Bush 13% (6%)
  • Ted Cruz 8% 
  • Rand Paul 8% (10%)
  • Other (vol.) 15% (10%)
  • Don’t know (vol.) 22% (13%)

Survey of 268 registered Republican primary voters was conducted April 13-19, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 6.0 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted August 21-27, 2013 are in parentheses.

Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 7:00 am. Filed under 2016, Chris Christie, Jeb Bush, Rand Paul, Scott Walker, Ted Cruz

Poll Watch: Quinnipiac New Jersey 2016 Democratic Primary Survey

Quinnipiac New Jersey 2016 Democratic Primary Poll

  • Hillary Clinton 63% (65%)
  • Elizabeth Warren 12% (11%)
  • Joe Biden 10% (7%)
  • Bernie Sanders 3% (3%)
  • Martin O’Malley 1% (0%)
  • Jim Webb 1% (1%)
  • Lincoln Chafee 0%

Survey of 539 registered Democratic voters was conducted April 9-14, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 4.2 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted January 15-19, 2015 are in parentheses.

Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

April 22, 2015

Poll Watch: Quinnipiac New Jersey 2016 Republican Primary Survey

Quinnipiac New Jersey 2016 GOP Primary Poll

  • Chris Christie 22% (24%)
  • Scott Walker 14% (4%)
  • Jeb Bush 11% (13%)
  • Rand Paul 9% (5%)
  • Marco Rubio 7% (3%)
  • Ted Cruz 6% (6%)
  • Mike Huckabee 4% (4%)
  • Bobby Jindal 3% (2%)
  • Ben Carson 2% (6%)
  • Carly Fiorina 1%
  • John Kasich 1% (0%)
  • Lindsey Graham 0%
  • Rick Perry 0% (1%)
  • Rick Santorum 0% (0%)

Survey of 444 registered Republican voters was conducted April 9-14, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 4.7 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted January 15-19, 2015 are in parentheses.

Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 7:00 am. Filed under 2016, Chris Christie, Poll Watch, Republican Party

Poll Watch: Gravis Insights/Townhall (R) Iowa 2016 Presidential Survey

  • Hillary Clinton (D) 44% {45%}
  • Mike Huckabee (R) 43% {40%}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 44% {44%}
  • Rand Paul (R) 43% {39%}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 42% {45%}
  • Chris Christie (R) 39% {35%}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 43% {43%} [42.6%] (41%)
  • Jeb Bush (R) 40% {37%} [43.5%] (41%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 45%
  • Marco Rubio (R) 42%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 46% {47%}
  • Scott Walker (R) 41% {41%}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 44%
  • Carly Fiorina (R) 37%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 47%
  • Ted Cruz (R) 40%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 45%
  • Ben Carson (R) 37%

Survey of 1,259 registered Iowa voters was conducted April 13, 2015 The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted February 12-13, 2015 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted October 20-21, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted September 29-30, 2014 are in parentheses.

Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 4:00 am. Filed under 2016, Hillary Clinton, Poll Watch, Republican Party

April 21, 2015

Poll Watch: Gravis Insights/Townhall (R) Iowa 2016 Republican Caucus Survey

Gravis Insights/Townhall (R) Iowa 2016 GOP Caucus Poll

  • Jeb Bush 16% [10%] (14%)
  • Scott Walker 13% [24%] (10%)
  • Marco Rubio 12% [7%] (4%)
  • Rand Paul 9% [10%] (8%)
  • Ben Carson 9% [5%]
  • Mike Huckabee 8% [7%] (9%)
  • Ted Cruz 6% [4%] (7%)
  • Chris Christie 5% [9%] (5%)
  • Carly Fiorina 3% [3%]
  • Rick Santorum 2% [6%]
  • Unsure 17% [15%] (18%)

Survey of 388 Iowa Republican voters was conducted April 13, 2015.The margin of error is +/- 5 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted February 12-13, 2015 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted January 5-7, 2015 are in parentheses.

Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 7:45 pm. Filed under 2016, Iowa Caucuses, Jeb Bush, Poll Watch, Republican Party

Poll Watch: CNN/ORC 2016 National Presidential Survey

  • Hillary Clinton (D) 55% (55%) (56%)
  • Marco Rubio (R) 41% (42%) (37%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 56% (55%) {54%} [59%] (58%)
  • Jeb Bush (R) 39% (40%) {41%} [36%] (36%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 58% (55%) {56%} [56%] (47%)
  • Chris Christie (R) 39% (40%) {39%} [37%] (47%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 58% (54%) {58%} [58%] (54%)
  • Rand Paul (R) 39% (43%) {38%} [38%] (40%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 58% (55%) {59%} [57%] (55%)
  • Mike Huckabee (R) 37% (41%) {38%} [38%] (39%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 59% (55%)
  • Scott Walker (R) 37% (40%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 60% (56%) {56%}
  • Ben Carson (R) 36% (40%) {35%}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 60% {60%}
  • Ted Cruz (R) 36% {35%}
National survey of 1,018 adults was conducted April 16-19, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted March 13-15, 2015 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted December 18-21, 2014 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 31 – February 2, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted December 16-19, 2013 are in parentheses.

Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 9:00 am. Filed under 2016, Hillary Clinton, Poll Watch

Poll Watch: CNN/ORC 2016 Democratic Nomination Survey

CNN/ORC 2016 Democratic Nomination Poll

  • Hillary Clinton 69% [67%]
  • Joe Biden 11% [16%]
  • Bernie Sanders 5% [5%]
  • Jim Webb 3% [1%]
  • Lincoln Chafee 1%
  • Martin O’Malley 1% [1%]

Survey of 458 Democrats and Democratic-leaning Independents was conducted April 16-19, 2015.  The margin of error is +/- 4.5 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted March 13-15, 2015 are in square brackets.

Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 7:00 am. Filed under 2016, Democrats, Elizabeth Warren, Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden, Martin O'Malley, Poll Watch

Poll Watch: CNN/ORC 2016 Republican Nomination Survey

CNN/ORC 2016 GOP Nomination Poll

  • Jeb Bush 17% [16%] (14%) {23%} [14%] (8%) {12%} [13%](9%) {10%} [6%] (10%)
  • Scott Walker 12% [13%] (11%) {4%} [5%] (5%) {5%} [7%]
  • Rand Paul 11% [12%] (10%) {6%} [8%] (12%) {14%} [13%](16%) {13%} [13%] (13%)
  • Marco Rubio 11% [7%] (5%) {5%} [3%] (6%) {8%} [6%] (5%) {9%} [9%] (9%)
  • Mike Huckabee 9% [10%] (16%) {6%} [10%] (12%) {11%} [10%] (10%) {14%}
  • Ted Cruz 7% [4%] (3%) {4%} [7%] (8%) {9%} [7%] (8%) {8%} [10%] (7%)
  • Ben Carson 4% [9%] (8%) {7%} [11%]
  • Chris Christie 4% [7%] (7%) {13%} [9%] (13%) {8%} [9%] (8%) {10%} [24%] (17%)
  • Rick Perry 3% [4%] (3%) {4%} [5%] (11%) {6%} [8%] (11%) {8%} [7%] (6%)
  • Rick Santorum 3% [1%] (3%) {2%} [2%] (3%) {4%} [2%] (3%) {4%} [6%] (5%)
  • Carly Fiorina 2% [0%] (1%)
  • Lindsey Graham 2% [1%] (1%)
  • Bobby Jindal 2% [1%] (1%) {4%} [1%]
  • John Kasich 2% [2%] (2%) {3%} [3%]
  • George Pataki 0%

Survey of 435 Republicans and GOP-leaning Independents was conducted April 16-19, 2015.  The margin of error is +/- 4.5 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted March 13-15, 2015 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted February 12-15, 2015 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted December 18-21, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted November 21-23, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted July 18-20, 2014 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted May 29 – June 1, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted May 2-4, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted March 7-9, 2014 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted January 31 – February 2, 2014 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 18-20, 2013 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 6-8, 2013 are in parentheses.

Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 4:00 am. Filed under 2016, Jeb Bush, Poll Watch, Republican Party

April 20, 2015

World Order Once Again Dissolves

The earlier individual civilizations of this planet constantly went through cycles of various kinds including a general “order” of the forces at play in them.

We have for some recent time now had a planet-wide “world order” as communications and transportation innovations eliminated the earlier physical boundaries between hitherto distant and separated civilizations.

Although one can describe the world in terms of various cycles, including those of technology, climate, sociological relationships, health, demography/migration, religious belief and so on, the nation-states which arose from innumerable nomadic tribes, and the notions of power and aggression, have, in recent centuries, created the modern versions of a so-called world order.

There seems to be, in terms of this particular notion of a “grand” world order, alternating cycles of integration and dissolution which evolve over several decades each, and which serve as clarifying markers for their times.

Those who are now sixty years old or older grew up in a period of post-World War II integration of a new order resulting from the aftermath of World Wars I and II, just as the previous world order was a dissolution following the upheaval of the Napoleonic wars in Europe and the colonial “possessions” of European states around the world.

There has been an a mega-political process going on now for many years — a dissolving of the attempt to create a lasting order in Europe, the western hemisphere and Asia. The United States has played a certain and growing role in the ordering of the world for the past one hundred and fifty years or so. Clearly, the population giants of China and India are now asserting their place more aggressively as this old order dissolves. Other nations, including Brazil, Japan, Indonesia, and Russia, are asserting themselves by virtue of their large populations and growing economic market share of world trade. But this transformation is no longer limited to nation states, just as the earliest transformations were not limited to regional tribes. In the latest dissolution, we observe
transnational economic entities such as the European Union and OPEC; international ideological entities such as Islamic jihadism and radical environmentalism; and international regions such as South and Central America, and the trans-Pacific area, attempting to take a significant part in the creation of a new planetary order.

International organizations such as the United Nations, the World Court, and regional military alliances increasingly appear unable to bring any true enduring cooperation in an emerging new world order (whatever it is to be). The most dynamic factor of the modernization of the world, democratic capitalism, seems momentarily frozen in the face of aggressive new forces.

In the period after 1945, and again in 1990, there was a provisional belief in the West that first, fascism, and second, communism, both cruel and totalitarian phenomena, had been temporary, and were now “overcome.”  It seems, as their malign offspring reappear in the world, this was an over-optimistic conclusion.

The “level” of the world, as philosopher Ortega y Gasset described it in 1928, does continue to rise because of technology and invention (human beings live longer; more persons are fed; life is more varied), but the state of the world (its “order,” if you will) has seemed to become more uncertain and perilous.

It has taken some time, especially for the post-war generations in the West, to understand this fully. For many of these generations, in fact, they even now cling to a belief in the old order and its “comprehensible” optimism, security, rationality and reassurances — and that it can somehow be restored.

Daily events all over the globe, and even at home, however, signal another kind of process is at work. It’s time for some new thinking.

——————————————————————————————
Copyright (c) 2015 by Barry Casselman. All rights reserved.

by @ 6:22 pm. Filed under International, Opinion, Predictions

Poll Watch: Mason-Dixon Florida 2016 Presidential Survey

Mason-Dixon Florida 2016 Presidential Poll

  • Marco Rubio (R) 49%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 43%
  • Jeb Bush (R) 47%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 43%

Survey of 625 registered voters was conducted April 14-16, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points.

Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 4:29 pm. Filed under 2016, Hillary Clinton, Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, Poll Watch

April 19, 2015

Race 4 2016 Headlines and Sunday Open Thread

The rules of open threads are as follows:

-No profanity

-No religious attacks

-No personal attacks on the family members of candidates

-No trolling or feeding of trolls

Other than that, have at it in the comments!

by @ 4:00 am. Filed under 2016, Headlines & Open Threads

April 18, 2015

Race 4 2016 Headlines and Saturday Open Thread

The rules of open threads are as follows:

-No profanity

-No religious attacks

-No personal attacks on the family members of candidates

-No trolling or feeding of trolls

Other than that, have at it in the comments!

by @ 4:00 am. Filed under Headlines & Open Threads

April 17, 2015

REPORT: Mike Huckabee to Announce Intentions Tonight on FOX News

by @ 11:11 am. Filed under 2016, Mike Huckabee

Poll Watch: Mason-Dixon Florida 2016 Republican Primary Survey

pic1

Rubiomentum? A new Mason-Dixon Polling and Research survey of 400 registered Republican Florida voters shows Sen. Marco Rubio with a narrow 31-30 lead over former Gov. Jeb Bush in their home state. Rubio’s well-received campaign roll out and subsequent media appearances have boosted the junior senator into a dead-heat with his political mentor and friend. Rubio famously toppled another moderate Republican governor, Charlie Crist, after initially trailing in the polls on his way to the GOP senate nomination in 2010.

Mason-Dixon Florida 2016 GOP Primary Poll

  • Marco Rubio 31%
  • Jeb Bush 30%
  • Ted Cruz 8%
  • Rand Paul 7%
  • Scott Walker 2%
  • Other 5%
  • Undecided 17%

Survey of 400 registered Republican voters was conducted April 14-16, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 5 percentage points.

Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 8:49 am. Filed under 2016, Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, Poll Analysis, Poll Watch

Poll Watch: Marquette University Law School Wisconsin 2016 Republican Primary Survey

  • Scott Walker 40.0% [28.9%] (16.1%)
  • Rand Paul 10.3% [8.4%] (6.9%)
  • Jeb Bush 7.9% [2.4%] (4.6%)
  • Ted Cruz 6.0% [4.3%]
  • Chris Christie 5.8% [8.6%] (10.6%)
  • Mike Huckabee 5.1%
  • Ben Carson 5.0%
  • Marco Rubio 3.8% [9.3%] (21.2%)
  • Bobby Jindal 2.3% (0.8%)
  • Rick Santorum 1.9%
  • Carly Fiorina 0.5%
  • Rick Perry 0.5%
  • Someone else 1.7% [4.2%] (1.6%)
  • Don’t know 8.9% [8.9%] (10.5%)
 Survey of 319 registered Republican and GOP-leaning Independent voters was conducted April 7-10, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 5.6 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted October 21-24, 2013 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 6-9, 2013are in parentheses.

Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 7:00 am. Filed under 2016, Poll Watch, Republican Party

Poll Watch: Marquette University Law School Wisconsin 2016 Democratic Primary Survey

  • Hillary Clinton 58.2% [64.0%] (61.5%)
  • Elizabeth Warren 14.3% [10.8%] (4.8%)
  • Joe Biden 12.0% [10.6%] (13.0%)
  • Martin O’Malley 0.9% [0.8%] (1.1%)
  • Jim Webb 0.9%
  • Someone else 3.7% [2.1%] (1.5%)
  • Don’t know 8.9% [9.2%] (11.0%)
 Survey of 391 registered Democrats and Democratic-leaning Independent voters was conducted April 7-10, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 5.1 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted October 21-24, 2013 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 6-9, 2013 are in parentheses.

Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 4:00 am. Filed under 2016, Democrats, Hillary Clinton, Poll Watch

April 16, 2015

Poll Watch: PPP (D) New Hampshire 2016 Republican Primary Survey

PPP (D) New Hampshire 2016 GOP Primary Poll

  • Scott Walker 24% {3%}
  • Ted Cruz 14% (10%) {9%}
  • Rand Paul 12% (10%) {12%}
  • Jeb Bush 10% (15%) {12%}
  • Chris Christie 8% (11%) {24%}
  • Marco Rubio 8% (7%) {8%}
  • Ben Carson 7% (15%)
  • Mike Huckabee 7% (11%) {11%}
  • Rick Perry 4% (3%)
  • Not sure 7% (11%) {13%}
Survey of 358 Republican primary voters was conducted April 9-13, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 5.2 percentage points. Party ID: 62% (61%) Republican; 38% (38%) Independent/Other; 0% (2%) Democrat.  Political ideology: 39% (40%) Somewhat conservative; 31% (26%) Moderate; 22% (25%) Very conservative; 6% (6%)Somewhat liberal; 3% (2%) Very liberal. Results from the poll conducted November 1-3, 2014 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted January 9-12, 2014 are in curly brackets.

Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 7:00 am. Filed under 2016, New Hampshire Primary, Poll Watch, Republican Party, Scott Walker

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