July 25, 2014

“Minnewisowa” More Than Ever?

The political mega-state of “Minnewisowa” (Minnesota, Wisconsin and Iowa) is once again, mid-way into the 2014 national mid-term elections,  flashlighting its bellwether status in American politics.

These three contiguous north midwestern states, as I have pointed out during the past decade, have so much in common demographically they vote in much the same way, but being “swing” states, how they will vote varies from cycle to cycle.

This might have been considered an unexpected historical circumstance, especially since both Minnesota and Wisconsin were considered very “progressive,” even radical, states about century ago, and before that, they were very Republican.

But while many other U.S. states, also originally agricultural, became very industrialized and urban, these three states maintain substantial rural and exurban populations, even if farming is no longer their primary occupation. Minnesota has a large urban center, the “twin cities” of Minneapolis and St. Paul, and these are overwhelmingly liberal, and increasingly so as minority populations have settled in them. In Wisconsin, Milwaukee and the capital Madison are very liberal, as is Des Moines and the college town Iowa City in Iowa. But an urban-outstate balance has been created in all three of these states, as can be seen plainly once city lines are crossed to head into their outstate areas.

Veteran Republican governors lead Iowa and Wisconsin, and are expected to win re-election again in 2014. The Democratic governor of Minnesota seems secure in his re-election so far this year. There is one Democratic U.S. senator in Iowa and one Republican, but the former is retiring, and a Republican has good chance to win the seat. In Wisconsin, similarly, each party has a U.S. senate seat, neither of which is up this year. Minnesota has two Democrats (called Democrat-Farmer-Laborites or DFLers) in the U.S. senate, but the one up for re-election this year might be vulnerable. All three state have split delegations in the U.S. Congress. A net GOP pick-up is very possible in Minnesota this cycle.

In 2012, Republicans had high hopes to make gains in Minnewisowa, but the Obama Democratic tide swamped these ambitions. In 2010, a national mid-term year, the GOP had done well, winning governorships in Iowa and Wisconsin (and, but for a slip of the tongue, would have won another in Minnesota), and picked up a senate seat in Wisconsin, and congressional seats in the region.

The point is. of course, that each major party can do well in Minnewisowa. What makes it a bellwether is that it often signals which way the national political wind is blowing in a particular cycle.

In 2014, the races to watch in Minnewisowa include the U.S. senate seat in Iowa (between Democrat Bill Braley and ?Republican Joni Ernst), the senate seat in Minnesota (between incumbent Democrat Al Franken and Republican Mike McFadden), the governor’s races in Wisconsin (between incumbent Republican Scott Walker and Democrat Mary Burke) and in Minnesota (between incumbent DFLer Mark Dayton and a Republican yet to be chosen in the state’s August 12 primary) and several close congressional races in all three states, most notably perhaps the race in Minnesota’s 8th district between incumbent DFLer Rick Nolan and his GOP challenger Stewart Mills.

Beyond 2014, the Minnewisowa political prize is the presidential election in 2016 in which the mega-state packs an electoral college wallop. In this contest, the Democrats have won the recent cycles, and by a big margin in 2012. A switch in voter sentiment in 2014, however, might signal a switch in 2016, but such a reversal, if it is to occur, is four months away and as yet uncertain.

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Copyright (c) by Barry Casselman. All rights reserved.

by @ 10:41 am. Filed under 2014, 2016, Scott Walker, Senate Races

Poll Watch: SurveyUSA Florida 2016 Presidential Survey

SurveyUSA Florida 2016 Presidential Poll 

  • Hillary Clinton (D) 49%
  • Chris Christie (R) 38%
  • Chris Christie (R) 48%
  • Joe Biden (D) 39%

Among Men

  • Hillary Clinton (D) 48%
  • Chris Christie (R) 39%
  • Chris Christie (R) 48%
  • Joe Biden (D) 37%

Among Women

  • Hillary Clinton (D) 51%
  • Chris Christie (R) 37%
  • Chris Christie (R) 47%
  • Joe Biden (D) 41%

Survey of 836 registered voters was conducted July 17-21, 2014 for WFLA-TV.  The margin of error is +/- 3.5 percentage points. Party ID: 39% Democrat; 34% Republican; 27% Independent. Ideology: 43% Moderate; 30% Conservative; 19% Liberal. Gender: 52% Female; 48% Male . 

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 10:30 am. Filed under 2016, Hillary Clinton, Poll Watch

July 24, 2014

Poll Watch: SurveyUSA Florida 2014 Gubernatorial Survey

SurveyUSA Florida 2014 Gubernatorial Poll

  • Charlie Crist (D) 46% (43%) {41%} [44%] (40%) {44%} [44%] (46%)
  • Rick Scott (R) 40% (45%) {42%} [40%] (42%) {41%} [41%] (41%)

Among Democrats

  • Charlie Crist (D) 82% (79%) {75%} [82%] (77%) {80%} (80%)
  • Rick Scott (R) 9% (10%) {11%} [6%] (8%) {10%} (13%)

Among Republicans

  • Rick Scott (R) 73% (79%) {77%} [75%] (80%) {74%} (71%)
  • Charlie Crist (D) 16% (13%) {12%} [13%] (7%) {14%} (14%)

Among Independents

  • Rick Scott (R) 39% (47%) {40%} [39%] (39%) {41%} (43%)
  • Charlie Crist (D) 37% (35%) {32%} [35%] (31%) {36%} (40%)

Among Moderates

  • Charlie Crist (D) 54% (51%) {52%} [47%] (46%) {55%} (57%)
  • Rick Scott (R) 32% (38%) {28%} [31%] (34%) {30%} (33%)

Among Men

  • Charlie Crist (D) 43% (40%) {36%} [39%] (35%) {37%} (47%)
  • Rick Scott (R) 42% (47%) {49%} [45%] (49%) {49%} (41%)
Among Women
  • Charlie Crist (D) 48% (46%) {47%} [50%] (47%) {50%} (46%)
  • Rick Scott (R) 38% (43%) {35%} [34%] (35%) {33%} (42%)

Survey of 564 likely voters was conducted July 17-21, 2014 for WFLA-TV.  The margin of error is +/- 4.2 percentage points. Party ID: 38% (37%) {37%} [38%] (37%) {37%} (34%) Republican; 37% (38%) {40%} [38%] (39%) {37%} (38%) Democrat; 24% (24%) {23%} [23%] (23%) {26%} (27%) Independent. Ideology: 44% (42%) {49%} [41%] (41%) {42%} (45%) Moderate; 34% (33%) {30%} [35%] (34%) {34%} (32%) Conservative; 17% (21%) {17%} [20%] (21%) {19%} (20%) Liberal.Gender: 52% (49%) {49%} [47%] (47%) {49%} (48%) Female; 48% (51%) {51%} [53%] (53%) {51%} (52%) Male. Results from the poll released June 30 – July 2, 2014 are in parentheses. Results from the poll released June 20-23, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll released June 5-10, 2014 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll released May 20-22, 2014 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll released May 9-12, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll released April 29, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted April 10-14, 2014 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 5:56 pm. Filed under 2014, Poll Watch

Poll Watch: PPP (D) Colorado 2014 Senatorial Survey

PPP (D) Colorado 2014 Senate Poll

  • Mark Udall (D) 44% {47%} [47%] (42%)
  • Cory Gardner (R) 43% {43%} [45%] (40%)

Among Independents

  • Cory Gardner (R) 45% {45%} [43%] (38%)
  • Mark Udall (D) 38% {43%} [43%] (30%)

Among Men

  • Cory Gardner (R) 53% {48%} [50%] (45%)
  • Mark Udall (D) 38% {43%} [44%] (42%)

Among Women

  • Mark Udall (D) 49% {51%} [49%] (43%)
  • Cory Gardner (R) 35% {39%} [40%] (36%)

Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Mark Udall’s job performance?  

  • Approve 36% {42%} (41%)
  • Disapprove 47% {45%} (40%)

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Cory Gardner?  

  • Favorable 34% {35%} (23%)
  • Unfavorable 39% {42%} (25%)

Survey of 653 Colorado voters was conducted July 17-20, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 3.8 percentage points. Party ID: 35% {36%} [36%] (33%) Democrat; 34% {31%} [32%] (34%) Republican; 31% {33%} [32%] (33%) Independent/Other.  Results from the poll conducted May 7-8, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted April 17-20, 2014 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 13-16, 2014 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 4:20 pm. Filed under 2014, Poll Watch

Poll Watch: PPP (D) North Carolina 2014 Senatorial Survey

PPP (D) North Carolina 2014 Senate Poll

  • Kay Hagan (D) 41% [39%] {38%} (43%) [45%] {40%} (42%) [44%] {44%}
  • Thom Tillis (R) 34% [34%] {36%} (41%) [43%] {42%} (43%) [42%] {42%}
  • Sean Haugh (L) 8% [11%] {11%}

Among Men

  • Thom Tillis (R) 42% [39%] {42%} (42%) [50%] {47%} (48%) [45%] {48%}
  • Kay Hagan (D) 38% [39%] {36%} (47%) [42%] {42%} (43%) [43%] {42%}
  • Sean Haugh (L) 9% [10%] {12%}

Among Women

  • Kay Hagan (D) 44% [39%] {40%} (39%) [47%] {39%} (41%) [46%] {46%}
  • Thom Tillis (R) 27% [29%] {31%} (40%) [37%] {38%} (39%) [40%] {37%}
  • Sean Haugh (L) 8% [12%] {10%}

Horse race, with Haugh supporters allocated to whether they lean Hagan or Tillis

  • Kay Hagan (D) 42% [42%] {41%}
  • Thom Tillis (R) 39% [38%] {41%}

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

  • Sean Haugh 7% / 20% {-13%}
  • Thom Tillis 24% [23%] {30%} (20%) [18%] {15%} (15%) [12%] {16%} / 47% [45%] {46%} (39%) [37%] {29%} (28%) [30%] {28%} {-23%}

Do you approve or disapprove Senator Kay Hagan’s job performance?

  • Approve 40% [42%] {38%} (41%) [41%] {41%} (39%) [43%] {44%}
  • Disapprove 50% [46%] {49%} (48%) [50%] {50%} (49%) [49%] {49%}

Survey of 1,062 registered voters was conducted July 17-20, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 3.0 percentage points. Party ID: 44% [43%] {42%} (42%) [42%] {39%} [43%] {45%} Democrat; 34% [36%] {35%} (36%) [35%] {34%} [34%] {33%} Republican; 22% [22%] {23%} (22%) [23%] {27%} [23%] {21%} Independent/Other.  Results from the poll conducted June 12-15, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted May 9-11, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted April 3-6, 2014 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted March 6-9, 2014 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 6-9, 2014 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 9-12, 2014 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted December 5-8, 2013 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 8-11, 2013 are in curly brackets.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 12:17 pm. Filed under 2014, Poll Watch

Poll Watch: PPP (D) Mississippi 2016 Presidential Survey

PPP (D) Mississippi 2016 Presidential Poll

  • Mike Huckabee (R) 49%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 42%
  • Jeb Bush (R) 47% (50%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 42% (42%)
  • Chris Christie (R) 45% (49%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 42% (40%)
  • Rand Paul (R) 45% (46%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 43% (44%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 44% (45%)
  • Ted Cruz (R) 44% (47%)

Among Men

  • Mike Huckabee (R) 54%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 33%
  • Jeb Bush (R) 53% (58%) 
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 33% (34%)
  • Chris Christie (R) 51% (58%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 33% (32%)
  • Rand Paul (R) 55% (55%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 35% (37%)
  • Ted Cruz (R) 52% (55%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 38% (38%)

Among Women

  • Hillary Clinton (D) 48%
  • Mike Huckabee (R) 44%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 49% (49%)
  • Jeb Bush (R) 42% (43%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 50% (47%)
  • Chris Christie (R) 39% (42%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 50% (50%)
  • Rand Paul (R) 37% (38%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 50% (50%)
  • Ted Cruz (R) 38% (40%)

Among Whites

  • Mike Huckabee (R) 71%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 19%
  • Jeb Bush (R) 67% (75%) 
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 20% (19%)
  • Chris Christie (R) 63% (72%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 21% (17%)
  • Rand Paul (R) 66% (68%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 22% (19%)
  • Ted Cruz (R) 64% (69%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 24% (20%)

Among Blacks

  • Hillary Clinton (D) 81%
  • Mike Huckabee (R) 10%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 80% (87%)
  • Jeb Bush (R) 12% (4%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 79% (84%)
  • Chris Christie (R) 13% (9%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 81% (92%)
  • Rand Paul (R) 10% (4%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 82% (91%)
  • Ted Cruz (R) 9% (6%)

Survey of 691 Mississippi voters was conducted July 10-13, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 3.7 percentage points. Party ID: 43% (43%) Republican; 39% (37%) Democrat; 19% (20%) Independent/Other. Political ideology: 26% (23%) Moderate; 26% (27%) Very conservative; 25% (24%) Somewhat conservative; 14% (15%)Somewhat liberal; 10% (11%) Very liberal. Race: 60% (62%) White; 34% (32%) Black; 6% (6%) Other. Results from the poll conducted November 15-17, 2013 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 10:20 am. Filed under 2016, Chris Christie, Hillary Clinton, Jeb Bush, Mike Huckabee, Poll Watch, Ted Cruz

Poll Watch: Rasmussen President Obama Job Approval Survey

Rasmussen President Obama Job Approval Poll 

How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as president?

  • Strongly approve 24%
  • Somewhat approve 22%
  • Somewhat disapprove 11%
  • Strongly disapprove 41%

President Obama Job Approval

  • Approve 46%
  • Disapprove 52%

Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 500 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. To reach those who have abandoned traditional landline telephones, Rasmussen Reports uses an online survey tool to interview randomly selected participants from a demographically diverse panel. The margin of sampling error for the full sample of 1,500 Likely Voters is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

by @ 10:17 am. Filed under 2014, Barack Obama, Poll Watch

July 23, 2014

Poll Watch: PPP (D) Mississippi 2016 Republican Primary Survey

PPP (D) Mississippi 2016 GOP Primary Poll

  • Mike Huckabee 25%
  • Jeb Bush 16% (16%)
  • Ted Cruz 11% (19%)
  • Chris Christie 8% (17%)
  • Paul Ryan 6% (4%)
  • Rand Paul 6% (12%)
  • Marco Rubio 5% (8%)
  • Rick Santorum 3% (5%)
  • Scott Walker 2% (1%)
  • Someone else/Not sure 16% (10%)

Among Men

  • Mike Huckabee 22%
  • Jeb Bush 15% (15%)
  • Ted Cruz 13% (22%)
  • Chris Christie 10% (12%)
  • Paul Ryan 8% (3%)
  • Marco Rubio 8% (7%)
  • Rand Paul 5% (14%)
  • Rick Santorum 3% (4%)
  • Scott Walker 3% (2%)
  • Someone else/Not sure 14% (10%)

Among Women

  • Mike Huckabee 28%
  • Jeb Bush 18% (18%)
  • Ted Cruz 9% (17%)
  • Chris Christie 7% (23%)
  • Rand Paul 7% (10%)
  • Paul Ryan 4% (5%)
  • Marco Rubio 3% (9%)
  • Rick Santorum 2% (6%)
  • Scott Walker 1% (0%)
  • Someone else/Not sure 19% (10%)

Survey of 434 usual Republican primary voters was conducted July 10-13, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 4.7 percentage points. Political ideology: 44% (46%) Very conservative; 35% (33%) Somewhat conservative; 17% (15%) Moderate; 3% (4%) Somewhat liberal; 0% (3%) Very liberal. Results from the poll conducted November 15-17, 2013 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 4:58 pm. Filed under 2016, Mike Huckabee, Poll Watch

Poll Watch: PPP (D) Montana 2014 Senatorial Survey

PPP (D) Montana 2014 Senate Poll

  • Steve Daines (R) 46% (52%)
  • John Walsh (D) 39% (35%)
  • Undecided 15% (13%)

Survey of 574 registered voters was conducted July 17-18, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 4.1 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted November 15-17, 2013 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 11:15 am. Filed under 2014, Poll Watch

Poll Watch: EPIC-MRA Michigan 2014 Senatorial Survey

EPIC-MRA Michigan 2014 Senate Poll

  • Gary Peters (D) 45% {44%} [38%] (38%)
  • Terri Lynn Land (R) 36% {38%} [41%] (37%)

Survey of 600 likely voters was conducted July 12-15, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted May 17-20, 2014 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 5-11, 2014 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 7-10, 2013 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 10:27 am. Filed under 2014, Poll Watch

Poll Watch: Rasmussen President Obama Job Approval Survey

Rasmussen President Obama Job Approval Poll 

How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as president?

  • Strongly approve 24%
  • Somewhat approve 23%
  • Somewhat disapprove 10%
  • Strongly disapprove 41%

President Obama Job Approval

  • Approve 47%
  • Disapprove 51%

Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 500 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. To reach those who have abandoned traditional landline telephones, Rasmussen Reports uses an online survey tool to interview randomly selected participants from a demographically diverse panel. The margin of sampling error for the full sample of 1,500 Likely Voters is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

by @ 10:26 am. Filed under 2014, Barack Obama, Poll Watch

July 22, 2014

Poll Watch: NBC News/Marist New Hampshire 2016 Presidential Survey

  • Hillary Clinton (D) 46%
  • Rand Paul (R) 43%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 47%
  • Chris Christie (R) 42%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 47%
  • Jeb Bush (R) 42%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 47%
  • Marco Rubio (R) 42%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 48%
  • Scott Walker (R) 39%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 51%
  • Ted Cruz (R) 38%

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net} 

  • Hillary Clinton 52% / 44% {+8%}
  • Marco Rubio 34% / 29% {+5%}
  • Scott Walker 26% / 24% {+2%}
  • Rand Paul 41% / 40% {+1%}
  • Chris Christie 39% / 43% {-4%}
  • Jeb Bush 38% / 43% {-5%}
  • Joe Biden 41% / 49% {-8%}
  • Ted Cruz 27% / 35% {-8%}

Survey of 1,342 registered voters was conducted July 7-13, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 2.7 percentage points.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 3:15 pm. Filed under 2016, Hillary Clinton, Poll Watch

Poll Watch: NBC News/Marist New Hampshire 2016 Democratic Primary Survey

NBC News/Marist New Hampshire 2016 Democratic Primary Poll 

  • Hillary Clinton 74%
  • Joe Biden 18%
  • Undecided 8%

Survey of 479 registered Democratic primary voters was conducted July 7-13, 2014.  The margin of error is +/- 4.5 percentage points.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 11:11 am. Filed under 2016, Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden, New Hampshire Primary, Poll Watch

Poll Watch: Rasmussen President Obama Job Approval Survey

Rasmussen President Obama Job Approval Poll 

How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as president?

  • Strongly approve 25%
  • Somewhat approve 22%
  • Somewhat disapprove 10%
  • Strongly disapprove 42%

President Obama Job Approval

  • Approve 47%
  • Disapprove 52%

Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 500 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. To reach those who have abandoned traditional landline telephones, Rasmussen Reports uses an online survey tool to interview randomly selected participants from a demographically diverse panel. The margin of sampling error for the full sample of 1,500 Likely Voters is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

by @ 11:08 am. Filed under 2014, Barack Obama, Poll Watch

July 21, 2014

Poll Watch: NBC News/Marist New Hampshire 2016 Republican Primary Survey

NBC News/Marist New Hampshire 2016 GOP Primary Poll 

  • Rand Paul 14%
  • Chris Christie 13%
  • Jeb Bush 10%
  • Ted Cruz 9%
  • Paul Ryan 7%
  • Marco Rubio 7%
  • Scott Walker 6%
  • Rick Perry 5%
  • Bobby Jindal 4%
  • Rick Santorum 3%
  • Undecided 22%

Survey of 544 registered Republican primary voters was conducted July 7-13, 2014.  The margin of error is +/- 4.2 percentage points.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 2:49 pm. Filed under 2016, New Hampshire Primary, Rand Paul

Poll Watch: NBC News/Marist Iowa 2016 Democratic Caucus Survey

NBC News/Marist Iowa 2016 Democratic Caucus Poll 

  • Hillary Clinton 70%
  • Joe Biden 20%
  • Undecided 10%

Survey of 539 registered Democratic voters was conducted July 7-13, 2014.  The margin of error is +/- 4.2 percentage points.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 11:30 am. Filed under 2016, Hillary Clinton, Iowa Caucuses, Joe Biden, Poll Watch

Poll Watch: NBC News/Marist Iowa 2016 Republican Caucus Survey

NBC News/Marist Iowa 2016 GOP Caucus Poll 

  • Jeb Bush 12%
  • Rand Paul 12%
  • Paul Ryan 11%
  • Rick Santorum 9%
  • Chris Christie 8%
  • Rick Perry 7%
  • Ted Cruz 7%
  • Marco Rubio 7%
  • Scott Walker 5%
  • Bobby Jindal 1%
  • Undecided 20%

Survey of 558 registered Republican voters was conducted July 7-13, 2014.  The margin of error is +/- 4.1 percentage points.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 10:45 am. Filed under 2016, Iowa Caucuses, Jeb Bush, Poll Watch, Rand Paul

Poll Watch: NBC News/Marist Iowa 2016 Presidential Survey

NBC News/Marist Iowa 2016 Presidential Poll

  • Hillary Clinton (D) 45%
  • Rand Paul (R) 45%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 44%
  • Chris Christie (R) 43%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 46%
  • Jeb Bush (R) 42%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 49%
  • Marco Rubio (R) 40%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 49%
  • Ted Cruz 37%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 50%
  • Scott Walker (R) 37%

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net} 

  • Hillary Clinton 52% / 42% {+10%}
  • Rand Paul 40% / 37% {+3%}
  • Marco Rubio 32% / 29% {+3%}
  • Scott Walker 24% / 26% {-2%}
  • Chris Christie 35% / 42% {-7%}
  • Ted Cruz 26% / 34% {-8%}
  • Joe Biden 40% / 49% {-9%}
  • Jeb Bush 33% / 44% {-11%}

Survey of 1,599 registered voters was conducted July 7-13, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 2.5 percentage points. 

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 10:00 am. Filed under 2016, Hillary Clinton, Poll Watch, Rand Paul

Poll Watch: Rasmussen President Obama Job Approval Survey

Rasmussen President Obama Job Approval Poll 

How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as president?

  • Strongly approve 24%
  • Somewhat approve 23%
  • Somewhat disapprove 11%
  • Strongly disapprove 41%

President Obama Job Approval

  • Approve 47%
  • Disapprove 52%

Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 500 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. To reach those who have abandoned traditional landline telephones, Rasmussen Reports uses an online survey tool to interview randomly selected participants from a demographically diverse panel. The margin of sampling error for the full sample of 1,500 Likely Voters is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

by @ 9:15 am. Filed under 2014, Barack Obama, Poll Watch

July 20, 2014

Update on the Georgia CD-10th GOP Primary Race

Georgia is headed into its primary runoff for the 10th District in a race for the seat vacated by Rep. Paul Braun. The contest between candidates Dr. Jody Hice and Mike Collins has recently been elevated by one sided mudslinging and thuggish political tactic.

Paramount in recent weeks is the fact that Democrats have been funding mailers encouraging their party members to register as Republicans for the runoff to support Mr. Collins. But what’s worse is the report that Mr. Collins staff members have been spotted gloating on Twitter about the candidates’ endorsement from their Democratic opposition.

Multiple flyers from Mr. Collins have resorted to outright lies and distortions in order to gain support from the electorate including uncited claims that Dr. Hice has endorsed absolving veteran’s benefits, that he has no experience running a business or setting a budget and that he is a career politician. Collins has additionally distorted remarks by Dr. Hice in order to insinuate that he opposes female elected officials and desires to restrict the First Amendment.

There are two claim in particular that one should take concern with considering the demographics of the 10th District and the current state of affairs in our country.

As a businessman, Mr. Collins has placed blinders on to the notion that an individual working in the private sector would be the only type of individual capable of understanding our current economic and jobs crisis. In their latest assessment, Georgia Center for Nonprofits, estimated that the states non-profit expenditures reached $43 billion – 11% of the state’s gross state product – and ranked 11th in total employment in Georgia. That is a sizeable employment base and a sector that has a valued effect on the state economy.

Dr. Hice has served at the helm of several large organizations to which any rational individual understands have to balance budgets, manage a staff, and execute programs in a similar fashion as a business. It certainly begs the question as to how the districts many large organizations and mega-churches manage million dollar revenue streams without balancing a budget or having business minded organizational structure. One certainly hopes this wasn’t just an indictment against pastors.

The congressman from the 10th District will represent a massive number of constituents who work in non-profits of all types. Collins’ claim indicates that these people are not talented or smart enough to balance budgets, run a business, or even represent their districts in Congress. The claims are frankly disparaging.

The second and more troubling of Collins’ claims is his remark that Dr. Hice has been involved in a “failed fight against the IRS to allow preachers to endorse political candidates from the pulpit…” The irony of this claim is its association with the indictment that Dr. Hice believes in restricting First Amendment rights.

In this era of the IRS strong arming U.S. citizens, someone fighting the IRS for the citizenries unalienable rights should not be something Mr. Collins opposes.

Citizens United v. Federal Election Commission, tried by the U.S. Supreme Court in 2010 prohibits any government intrusion into the affairs of a business in the restriction of independent expenditures in politics. The USSC has ruled here that contributions and endorsements to political campaigns are a type of free speech. That free speech should not be limited to companies and businessmen, but extended to all people of all professions. Opposition to this is the actual restriction on First Amendment rights, and the fault lies with Mr. Collins.

Further, Mr. Collins does not seem to be aware of why political endorsements cannot be made from behind the pulpit. This is because churches fall into the tax code regulated by tax-exempt organizations. This tax code is not a long standing regulation in our country’s history, but rather comes from the 1954 passage of the Johnson Amendment.

The Johnson Amendment had nothing to do with churches or any ideas on the separation of church and state. Rather due to growing opposition to Lyndon Johnson’s reelection campaign, Johnson wanted to shut down powerful Texas non-profit organizations from endorsing his opponent. By way of preventing these non-profits from endorsing candidates, the amendment unwittingly shut down churches and pastors from endorsing candidates as they fell under the same tax code.

As noted scholar James D. Davidson of Purdue University writes, “From a constitutional perspective…American churches have had every right to endorse or oppose political candidates.”

This fight against the IRS is far from failed. It has never been tried. Over the last several years, pastors including Dr. Hice, have preached sermons point blankly in opposition to the Johnson Amendment. Not one of these pastors has been taken to task by the IRS because they know full well the amendment is unconstitutional and strips freedom of speech from the individual and will be struck down by the USSC. Collins’ lack of concern and indictments on this issue indicate that it is he who stands for limiting the First Amendment rather that Dr. Hice.

The current political climate demands the leadership of honest, professional, knowledgeable men and women across this country to dig us out of the mess under which we are currently buried. This is not the time for lies and deceitful tactics used to gain power, as that methodology will not end in Georgia at the close of the poles, but will continue within the halls of Congress. The choice on Tuesday, July 22nd should be clear and unmuddied by the leadership test that Collins has already failed.

by @ 11:53 am. Filed under 2014, Opinion

Poll Watch: Rasmussen President Obama Job Approval Survey

Rasmussen President Obama Job Approval Poll 

How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as president?

  • Strongly approve 25%
  • Somewhat approve 21%
  • Somewhat disapprove 11%
  • Strongly disapprove 42%

President Obama Job Approval

  • Approve 46%
  • Disapprove 53%

Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 500 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. To reach those who have abandoned traditional landline telephones, Rasmussen Reports uses an online survey tool to interview randomly selected participants from a demographically diverse panel. The margin of sampling error for the full sample of 1,500 Likely Voters is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

by @ 11:50 am. Filed under 2014, Barack Obama, Poll Watch

July 19, 2014

Poll Watch: Quinnipiac Colorado 2014 Senatorial Survey

  • Cory Gardner (R) 44% {44%}
  • Mark Udall (D) 42% {45%} 

Among Independents

  • Mark Udall (D) 43% {41%}
  • Cory Gardner (R) 40% {43%}

Among Men

  • Cory Gardner (R) 48% {53%}
  • Mark Udall (D) 36% {38%}

Among Women

  • Mark Udall (D) 49% {52%} 
  • Cory Gardner (R) 40% {35%}

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

  • Cory Gardner 34% {30%} / 31% {18%} {+3%}
  • Mark Udall 40% {43%} [42%] (44%) / 43% {38%} [35%] (38%) {-3%}

Among Independents

  • Mark Udall 39% {43%} [37%] (39%) / 44% {36%} [40%] (41%) {-5%
  • Cory Gardner 28% {29%} / 33% {17%} {-5%}

Among Men

  • Cory Gardner 39% {40%} / 26% {16%} {+13%}
  • Mark Udall 32% {37%} [36%] (38%) / 48% {47%} [46%] (45%) {-16%}

Among Women

  • Mark Udall 46% {49%} [49%] (50%) / 38% {31%} [24%] (30%) {+8%}
  • Cory Gardner 30% {21%} / 35% {21%} {-5%}

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Mark Udall is handling his job as United States Senator?

  • Approve 42% {42%} [45%] (44%)
  • Disapprove 46% {42%} [41%] (44%)

Do you feel that Mark Udall deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected?

  • Yes/Deserves 40% {40%} [42%] (41%)
  • No/Does not 49% {46%} [42%] (47%)

Survey of 1,147 registered voters was conducted July 10-14, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 2.9 percentage points. Party ID: 29% {26%} Republican; 27% {28%} Democrat; 37% {37%} Independent; 6% {10%} Other. Results from the poll conducted April 15-21, 2014 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 29 – February 2, 2014 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 15-18, 2013 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 12:42 pm. Filed under 2014, Poll Watch

Poll Watch: Rasmussen President Obama Job Approval Survey

Rasmussen President Obama Job Approval Poll 

How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as president?

  • Strongly approve 24%
  • Somewhat approve 23%
  • Somewhat disapprove 11%
  • Strongly disapprove 41%

President Obama Job Approval

  • Approve 47%
  • Disapprove 52%

Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 500 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. To reach those who have abandoned traditional landline telephones, Rasmussen Reports uses an online survey tool to interview randomly selected participants from a demographically diverse panel. The margin of sampling error for the full sample of 1,500 Likely Voters is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

by @ 12:37 pm. Filed under 2014, Barack Obama, Poll Watch

July 18, 2014

Poll Watch: Gravis Marketing (R) Colorado 2014 Senatorial Survey

  • Cory Gardner (R) 47%
  • Mark Udall (D) 43%
  • Gaylon Kent (L) 6%
  • Unsure 4%

Survey of 1,016 registered voters was conducted July 8-10, 2014.  The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points.  Party ID: 32% Democrat; 29% Republican; 39% Independent/Other.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 3:58 pm. Filed under 2014, Poll Watch

Poll Watch: NBC News/Marist New Hampshire 2014 Senatorial Survey

NBC News/Marist New Hampshire 2014 Senate Poll

  • Jeanne Shaheen (D) 50%
  • Scott Brown (R) 42%
  • Other 1%
  • Undecided 6%

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

  • Jeanne Shaheen 52% / 39% {+13%}
  • Scott Brown 40% / 39% {+1%}

Survey of 1,342 registered voters was conducted July 7-13, 2014.  The margin of error is +/- 2.7 percentage points.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 9:56 am. Filed under 2014, Poll Watch

Poll Watch: Rasmussen President Obama Job Approval Survey

Rasmussen President Obama Job Approval Poll 

How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as president?

  • Strongly approve 22%
  • Somewhat approve 25%
  • Somewhat disapprove 10%
  • Strongly disapprove 42%

President Obama Job Approval

  • Approve 47%
  • Disapprove 52%

Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 500 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. To reach those who have abandoned traditional landline telephones, Rasmussen Reports uses an online survey tool to interview randomly selected participants from a demographically diverse panel. The margin of sampling error for the full sample of 1,500 Likely Voters is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

by @ 9:54 am. Filed under 2014, Barack Obama, Poll Watch

July 17, 2014

The Kurds And Their Ways

Many have noted, in the current centenary observance of the beginning of World War I, that among the ongoing direct consequences of that global conflict and its aftermath was the Middle East map created at the 1919 Versailles conference. As with many of the contrived boundaries formulated at Versailles that year to satisfy the victors’ (Great Britain, France, Italy, the United States) revenge against the vanquished powers (Germany, Austro-Hungary,Turkey) AND their territorial ambitions, the lines drawn, and the new nations created, were mostly artificial and unstable, often ignoring the historic religious and ethnic groups in disputed areas.

In addition to the punitive terms against Germany, the most egregious acts of the resulting treaties were in the Middle East. The British government’s false promises to both the Jews in Palestine and the Arabs throughout the region are by now well-known and have led to decades of chronically bitter conflicts. Concessions to Italy in North Africa backfired before and during World War II. The aspirations of religious and ethnic groups were usually ignored. The dissolution of the vast Turkish empire did lead to a post-war revolution and the creation of a democratic secular regime in the now-smaller nation of Turkey, but even there the seeds of minority ethnic persecution and unfulfilled national aspirations festered.

Among the smaller but historic and culturally-rich groups in that region were the Armenians and the Kurds. The Armenians are Christians; the Kurds are Moslems. The former suffered genocidal and violent persecutions between the world wars, their populations were divided into the regions controlled by hostile larger groups. Eventually, following the break-up of the Soviet Union in the early 1990’s, an independent democratic Armenian state was created, fulfilling the aspirations of the first Armenian nation that existed 2600 years ago

The Kurds, on the other hand, have not been allowed their own state, although a revolt in 1922 declared the short-lived kingdom of Kurdistan that was suppressed in 1924, and its territory was turned over to the British mandate of Iraq.

When Saddam Hussein was overthrown through U.S. intervention in 2003, the Kurds of Iraq, living most in the north of that country, formed a semi-autonomous province, and although part of Iraq, they have for the most part controlled their area with their own leaders. As the U.S. has completely withdrawn from Iraq, and the central government in Baghdad faces insurrection from a new terrorist offshoot from Al-Qaeda which now proclaims itself the new Islamic “caliphate,” the Kurds have seized on the Iraqi disorder to reclaim and secure nearby areas and cities which were historically Kurdish lands.

Importantly, Turkey, which has long opposed an independent Kurdistan on it border, has reversed itself and now accepts Kurdish national aspirations in Iraq.

It is, as many have now observed, a rare opportunity to at least in a small way to repair the current Middle East map by creating an independent Kurdish nation. The Kurds are Moslems, but they are generally pro-Western and opposed to Islamic terrorism. If given their own nation, and supported by the U.S. and Europe, they would likely be another island of balance to the rabid anti-Americanism in Iran and Syria. Because the Kurdish territory contains
some of the current Iraqi oil fields, an independent Kurdish state could be economically self-sufficient. Since the population would be mostly ethnically and religiously homogeneous, an independent  Kurdish republic would likely have few of the tensions so prevalent in the current “artificial” nations of Iraq, Syria, Jordan and Lebanon. Longer-term, Kurdish minorities throughout the region could settle in the new Kurdish state. Located between Turkey and Iran, it could serve as a buffer between conflicting Islamic forces in the region. Israel is known to be ready to welcome an independent Kurdish state, and would promptly add the new nation as a trading partner.

The Obama administration has stubbornly opposed a new Kurdish nation as a threat to Iraqi “unity,” but any true unity now seems beyond any reality in the present political situation. The United States should be advancing Kurdish national aspirations, not blocking them.

———————————————————————————————————–
Copyright (c) 2014 by Barry Casselman. All rights reserved.

by @ 4:16 pm. Filed under Foreign Affairs

Poll Watch: NBC News/Marist Iowa 2014 Senatorial Survey

  • Joni Ernst (R) 43%
  • Bruce Braley (D) 43%
  • Other 1%
  • Undecided 14% 
Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

  • Joni Ernst 38% / 33% {+5%}
  • Bruce Braley 36% / 32% {+4%}

Survey of 1,599 registered voters was conducted July 7-13, 2014.  The margin of error is +/- 2.5 percentage points.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 2:41 pm. Filed under 2014, Poll Watch

Poll Watch: Quinnipiac Colorado 2016 Presidential Survey

  • Rand Paul (R) 46% [48%] (47%) {47%}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 43% [43%] (43%) {44%}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 42% [42%] (43%) {38%} [42%] (41%)
  • Chris Christie (R) 40% [42%] (42%) {46%} [43%] (44%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 44% [45%] 
  • Mike Huckabee (R) 41% [44%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 44% [45%]
  • Jeb Bush (R) 40% [40%]

Among Independents

  • Rand Paul (R) 42% [48%] (52%) {49%}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 40% [37%] (32%) {38%}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 37% [38%] (34%) {31%} [34%] (38%)
  • Chris Christie (R) 35% [41%] (43%) {47%} [43%] (41%) 
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 39% [40%]
  • Mike Huckabee (R) 38% [42%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 39% [41%]
  • Jeb Bush (R) 35% [35%]

Among Men

  • Rand Paul (R) 53% [55%] (56%) {56%}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 36% [35%] (34%) {34%}
  • Chris Christie (R) 43% [49%] (50%) {51%} [50%] (51%) 
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 36% [33%] (33%) {31%} [33%] (32%)
  • Mike Huckabee (R) 45% [49%] 
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 38% [37%]
  • Jeb Bush (R) 46% [45%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 38% [37%]

Among Women

  • Hillary Clinton (D) 50% [50%] (51%) {53%}
  • Rand Paul (R) 39% [40%] (38%) {38%}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 47% [51%] (53%) {45%} [50%] (49%)
  • Chris Christie (R) 38% [36%] (33%) {41%} [36%] (38%)   
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 50% [52%]
  • Mike Huckabee (R) 38% [38%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 50% [54%]
  • Jeb Bush (R) 35% [35%]

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

  • Rand Paul 39% [41%] / 28% [30%] {+11%}
  • Mike Huckabee 36% [37%] / 29% [30%] {+7%}
  • Hillary Clinton 48% [48%] [51%] (53%) / 48% [47%] [44%] (44%) {0%}
  • Chris Christie 34% [35%] [50%] (49%) / 37% [38%] [22%] (17%) {-3%}
  • Jeb Bush 31% [29%] / 36% [40%] {-5%}

Among Independents

  • Rand Paul 36% [43%] / 29% [28%] {+7%} 
  • Mike Huckabee 33% [38%] / 28% [28%] {+5%}
  • Hillary Clinton 46% [44%] [49%] (54%) / 48% [48%] [45%] (42%) {-2%}
  • Chris Christie 32% [37%] [50%] (50%) / 40% [35%] [17%] (15%) {-8%}
  • Jeb Bush 28% [24%] / 38% [42%] {-10%}

Among Men

  • Rand Paul 48% [52%] / 26% [29%] {+22%} 
  • Mike Huckabee 38% [44%] / 30% [31%] {+8%}
  • Jeb Bush 37% [33%] / 36% [41%] {+1%}
  • Chris Christie 34% [38%] [49%] (55%) / 37% [41%] [28%] (18%) {-3%}
  • Hillary Clinton 40% [39%] [43%] (42%) / 57% [56%] [52%] (53%) {-17%}

Among Women

  • Hillary Clinton 55% [57%] [59%] (63%) / 40% [38%] [37%] (34%) {+15%}
  • Mike Huckabee 33% [30%] / 29% [29%] {+4%}
  • Rand Paul 31% [30%] / 30% [31%] {+1%}
  • Chris Christie 34% [33%] [51%] (43%) / 36% [35%] [16%] (17%) {-2%}
  • Jeb Bush 25% [25%] / 37% [39%] {-12%}

Survey of 1,147 registered voters was conducted July 10-14, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 2.9 percentage points. Party ID: 29% [26%] (24%) {26%} [27%] (27%) Republican; 27% [28%] (29%) {29%} [30%] (24%) Democrat; 37% [37%] (38%) {38%} [36%] (42%) Independent; 6% [10%] (8%) {6%} [7%] (8%) Other.  Results from the poll conducted April 15-21, 2014 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 29 – February 2, 2014 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted November 15-18, 2013 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 15-21, 2013 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted June 5-10, 2013 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 10:08 am. Filed under 2016, Poll Watch, Rand Paul

Poll Watch: Rasmussen President Obama Job Approval Survey

Rasmussen President Obama Job Approval Poll 

How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as president?

  • Strongly approve 21%
  • Somewhat approve 27%
  • Somewhat disapprove 10%
  • Strongly disapprove 41%

President Obama Job Approval

  • Approve 48%
  • Disapprove 51%

Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 500 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. To reach those who have abandoned traditional landline telephones, Rasmussen Reports uses an online survey tool to interview randomly selected participants from a demographically diverse panel. The margin of sampling error for the full sample of 1,500 Likely Voters is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

by @ 10:06 am. Filed under 2014, Barack Obama, Poll Watch

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