August 27, 2014

Poll Watch: USA Today/Suffolk University Iowa 2016 Republican Caucus Survey

USA Today/Suffolk University Iowa 2016 GOP Caucus Poll 

  • Mike Huckabee 13.11% (11.02%)
  • Chris Christie 10.68% (7.09%)
  • Rick Perry 8.74% (3.15%)
  • Jeb Bush 7.28 (10.24%)
  • Rand Paul 6.80% (10.24%)
  • Paul Ryan 6.31% (6.30%)
  • Rick Santorum 5.83% (5.51%)
  • Marco Rubio 5.34% (5.51%)
  • Ted Cruz 4.85% (9.45%)
  • Scott Walker 4.37% (5.51%)
  • Bobby Jindal 2.91% (3.15%)
  • Jon Huntsman 0.97%
  • John Kasich 0.97%
  • Other 4.37%
  • Undecided 16.99% (3.15%)

Survey of 206 GOP caucus-goers was conducted August 23-36, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 6.83 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted April 3-8, 2014 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 3:46 pm. Filed under 2016, Iowa Caucuses, Mike Huckabee, Poll Watch

Poll Watch: Rasmussen Arkansas 2014 Senatorial Survey

Rasmussen Arkansas 2014 Senate Poll

  • Mark Pryor (D) 44% [43%] (40%)
  • Tom Cotton (R) 43% [47%] (45%)
  • Some other candidate 6% [4%] (5%)
  • Undecided 6% [6%] (10%)

Survey of 750 likely voters was conducted August 25-26, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted May 27-28, 2014 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 4-5, 2014 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 2:43 pm. Filed under 2014, Poll Watch

Poll Watch: PPP (D) Iowa 2014 Senatorial Survey

PPP (D) Iowa 2014 Senate Poll 

The candidates for U.S. Senate are Democrat Bruce Braley, Republican Joni Ernst, Libertarian Douglas Butzier, Bob Quast, Ruth Smith, and independent Rick Stewart. If the election was today, who would you vote for?

  • Bruce Braley (D) 41%
  • Joni Ernst (R) 40%
  • Rick Stewart (I) 2%
  • Douglas Butzier (L) 2%
  • Ruth Smith 1%
  • Bob Quast 0%
  • Undecided 14%

Horse race, with Butzier, Quast, Smith, and Stewart supporters asked if they’d vote Braley or Ernst 

  • Bruce Braley (D) 42% [45%] (41%)
  • Joni Ernst (R) 42% [39%] (35%)
  • Not sure 16% [16%] (23%)

Among Men

  • Joni Ernst (R) 50% [48%] (43%)
  • Bruce Braley (D) 40% [39%] (41%)
  • Not sure 9% [12%] (16%)

 

Among Women
  • Bruce Braley (D) 44% [50%] (42%)
  • Joni Ernst (R) 35% [31%] (28%)
  • Not sure 21% [20%] (30%)

 

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net} 

  • Bruce Braley 37% [29%] (31%) / 41% [29%] (25%) {-4%}
  • Joni Ernst 36% [27%] (9%) / 46% [32%] (12%) {-10%}

Survey of 915 likely voters was conducted August 22-24, 2014.  The margin of error is +/- 3.2 percentage points. Party ID: 35% [38%] (37%) Democrat; 34% [34%] (31%) Republican; 31% [28%] (32%) Independent/Other.  Ideology: 29% [27%] (30%) Moderate; 23% [22%] (24%) Somewhat conservative; 20% [18%] (22%) Somewhat liberal; 17% [19%] (14%) Very conservative; 11% [14%] (10%) Very liberal.  Results from the poll conducted May 15-19, 2014 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 20-23, 2014 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 10:00 am. Filed under 2014, Poll Watch

Poll Watch: Rasmussen President Obama Job Approval Survey

Rasmussen President Obama Job Approval Poll 

How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as president?

  • Strongly approve 21%
  • Somewhat approve 25%
  • Somewhat disapprove 13%
  • Strongly disapprove 40%

President Obama Job Approval

  • Approve 46%
  • Disapprove 53%

Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 500 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. To reach those who have abandoned traditional landline telephones, Rasmussen Reports uses an online survey tool to interview randomly selected participants from a demographically diverse panel. The margin of sampling error for the full sample of 1,500 Likely Voters is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

by @ 9:58 am. Filed under 2014, Barack Obama, Poll Watch

August 26, 2014

Poll Watch: SurveyUSA/KSTP-TV Minnesota 2014 Senatorial Survey

  • Al Franken (D) 51% [48%] (50%)
  • Mike McFadden (R) 42% [42%] (40%)
  • Steve Carlson (IP) 2%
  • Other 2% [1%]
  • Undecided 3% [5%] (11%)

Survey of 600 likely voters was conducted August 19-21, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 4.1 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted June 5-9, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted February 25-27, 2014 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 3:34 pm. Filed under 2014, Poll Watch

Poll Watch: Suffolk University/Boston Herald Massachusetts 2016 Republican Primary Survey

Suffolk/Boston Herald Massachusetts 2016 GOP Primary Poll

  • Chris Christie 11.00%
  • Paul Ryan 11.00%
  • Jeb Bush 10.75%
  • Rand Paul 10.50%
  • Mike Huckabee 7.00%
  • Scott Walker 6.75%
  • Marco Rubio 5.75%
  • Rick Perry 4.75%
  • Ted Cruz 4.25%
  • Bobby Jindal 3.50%
  • Rick Santorum 2.75%
  • Jon Huntsman 1.75%
  • John Kasich 1.00%
  • Undecided 18.25%

Survey of 400 likely Republican primary voters was conducted August 21-24, 2014.  The margin of error is +/- 4.9 percentage points.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 12:17 pm. Filed under 2016, Chris Christie, Paul Ryan, Poll Watch

Poll Watch: Rasmussen Alaska 2014 Senatorial Survey

  • Dan Sullivan (R) 47% (44%)
  • Mark Begich (D) 45% (44%)
  • Some other candidate 3%
  • Undecided 4%

Survey of 750 likely voters was conducted August 20-21, 2014.  The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted March 19-20, 2014 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 9:47 am. Filed under 2014, Poll Watch

Poll Watch: Rasmussen President Obama Job Approval Survey

Rasmussen President Obama Job Approval Poll 

How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as president?

  • Strongly approve 22%
  • Somewhat approve 23%
  • Somewhat disapprove 13%
  • Strongly disapprove 40%

President Obama Job Approval

  • Approve 45%
  • Disapprove 53%

Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 500 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. To reach those who have abandoned traditional landline telephones, Rasmussen Reports uses an online survey tool to interview randomly selected participants from a demographically diverse panel. The margin of sampling error for the full sample of 1,500 Likely Voters is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

by @ 9:45 am. Filed under 2014, Barack Obama, Poll Watch

August 25, 2014

Poll Watch: Rasmussen Wyoming 2014 Senatorial Survey

Rasmussen Wyoming 2014 Senatorial Survey

  • Mike Enzi (R) 63%
  • Charlie Hardy (D) 27%

Survey of 700 Likely Voters in Wyoming was conducted on August 20-21, 2014 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

by @ 10:14 am. Filed under 2014, Poll Watch

Poll Alert: Rasmussen Wyoming 2014 Gubernatorial Survey

Rasmussen Wyoming 2014 Gubernatorial Survey

  • Matt Mead (R) 55%
  • Pete Gosar (D) 34%
  • Another candidate 7%
  • Undecided 4%

The survey of 700 Likely Voters in Wyoming was conducted on August 20-21, 2014 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

by @ 10:10 am. Filed under 2014, Poll Watch

Poll Watch: Rasmussen President Obama Job Approval Survey

Rasmussen President Obama Job Approval Poll 

How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as president?

  • Strongly approve 21%
  • Somewhat approve 23%
  • Somewhat disapprove 15%
  • Strongly disapprove 39%

President Obama Job Approval

  • Approve 44%
  • Disapprove 54%

Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 500 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. To reach those who have abandoned traditional landline telephones, Rasmussen Reports uses an online survey tool to interview randomly selected participants from a demographically diverse panel. The margin of sampling error for the full sample of 1,500 Likely Voters is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

by @ 10:01 am. Filed under 2014, Barack Obama, Poll Watch

August 24, 2014

Poll Watch: Rasmussen Generic Congressional Ballot Survey

Rasmussen Generic Congressional Ballot Survey

  • Republicans 39% 40% 42% 39% 39% 38% 38% 38% 38% 37% 37% 38% 38% 37% 38% 37% 40% 41% 38% 39% 38% 37% 39% 39% 36% 37% 37% 38% 40% 37% 35% 37%  38% 40% (42%) 40% (43%) (43%) (40%) (40%) (39%) (37%) (37%) (36%) (38%) (38%) (37%)
  • Democrats 39%  39% 38% 41% 39% 39% 41% 40% 40% 39% 41% 41% 42% 41% 40% 41% 38% 40% 40% 40% 39% 41% 38% 39% 39% 41% 41% 40% 39% 42% 41% 41% 40% 40% (39%) 40% (38%) (38%) (41%) (39%) (41%) (43%) (43%) (43%) (45%) (42%) (40%)

The national telephone survey of 3,500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports from August 11-17, 2014. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

by @ 12:13 pm. Filed under 2014, Poll Watch

Poll Watch: Rasmussen President Obama Job Approval Survey

Rasmussen President Obama Job Approval Poll 

How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as president?

  • Strongly approve 19%
  • Somewhat approve 24%
  • Somewhat disapprove 15%
  • Strongly disapprove 41%

President Obama Job Approval

  • Approve 43%
  • Disapprove 56%

Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 500 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. To reach those who have abandoned traditional landline telephones, Rasmussen Reports uses an online survey tool to interview randomly selected participants from a demographically diverse panel. The margin of sampling error for the full sample of 1,500 Likely Voters is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

by @ 12:12 pm. Filed under 2014, Barack Obama, Poll Watch

August 23, 2014

Poll Watch: PPP (D) Kansas 2016 Presidential Survey

PPP (D) Kansas 2016 Presidential Poll 

  • Jeb Bush (R) 45% (50%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 39% (41%)
  • Mike Huckabee (R) 46% (49%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 41% (42%)
  • Chris Christie (R) 42% (46%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 38% (39%)
  • Rand Paul (R) 45% (48%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 41% (41%)
  • Ted Cruz (R) 43%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 42%

Among Men

  • Jeb Bush (R) 47% (57%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 35% (35%)
  • Mike Huckabee (R) 48% (55%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 39% (36%)
  • Chris Christie (R) 47% (50%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 35% (36%)
  • Rand Paul (R) 49% (54%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 40% (37%)
  • Ted Cruz (R) 47%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 42%

Among Women 

  • Hillary Clinton (D) 43% (46%)
  • Jeb Bush (R) 42% (43%)
  • Mike Huckabee (R) 45% (44%)  
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 42% (46%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 40% (42%)
  • Chris Christie (R) 38% (42%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 43% (45%)
  • Rand Paul (R) 40% (42%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 43% 
  • Ted Cruz (R) 40%

Survey of 903 likely voters was conducted August 14-17, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 3.3 percentage points. Party ID: 50% (47%) Republican; 30% (28%) Democrat; 20% (25%) Independent/Other.  Political ideology: 31% (32%) Moderate; 24% (19%) Very conservative; 22% (24%) Somewhat conservative; 16% (16%) Somewhat liberal; 7% (9%) Very liberal. Results from the poll conducted February 18-20, 2014 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 9:35 am. Filed under 2016, Chris Christie, Jeb Bush, Mike Huckabee, Poll Watch, Rand Paul, Ted Cruz

Poll Watch: Rasmussen President Obama Job Approval Survey

Rasmussen President Obama Job Approval Poll 

How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as president?

  • Strongly approve 19%
  • Somewhat approve 26%
  • Somewhat disapprove 12%
  • Strongly disapprove 41%

President Obama Job Approval

  • Approve 45%
  • Disapprove 53%

Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 500 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. To reach those who have abandoned traditional landline telephones, Rasmussen Reports uses an online survey tool to interview randomly selected participants from a demographically diverse panel. The margin of sampling error for the full sample of 1,500 Likely Voters is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

by @ 9:27 am. Filed under 2014, Barack Obama, Poll Watch

August 22, 2014

Poll Watch: Rasmussen Connecticut 2014 Gubernatorial Survey

  • Tom Foley (R) 45%
  • Dannel Malloy (D) 38%
  • Some other candidate 7%
  • Undecided 10%

Survey of 750 likely voters was conducted August 18-19, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 2.4 percentage points.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 9:00 am. Filed under 2014, Poll Watch

Poll Watch: Rasmussen West Virginia 2014 Senatorial Survey

Rasmussen West Virginia 2014 Senate Poll

  • Shelley Moore Capito (R) 50% [48%] (49%)
  • Natalie Tennant (D) 33% [39%] (35%)

Survey of 750 likely voters was conducted August 19-20, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted May 14-15, 2014 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 19-20, 2014 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 8:00 am. Filed under 2014, Poll Watch

Poll Watch: UNH/WMUR New Hampshire 2014 Senatorial Survey

UNH/WMUR New Hampshire 2014 Senate Poll

  • Jeanne Shaheen (D) 46% {50%} [45%] (47%) 
  • Scott Brown (R) 44% {38%} [39%] (37%)

Among Men

  • Scott Brown (R) 49% {43%} [45%] (42%)
  • Jeanne Shaheen (D) 40% {44%} [42%] (43%)

Among Women

  • Jeanne Shaheen (D) 53% {57%} [48%] (50%)
  • Scott Brown (R) 39% {31%} [33%] (32%)

Survey of 609 likely voters was conducted August 7-17, 2014.  The margin of error is +/- 4.0 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted June 19 – July 1, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted April 1-9, 2014 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 21-26, 2014 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 4:00 am. Filed under 2014, Poll Watch

August 21, 2014

Poll Watch: Quinnipiac New York 2016 Presidential Survey

Quinnipiac New York 2016 Presidential Poll

  • Hillary Clinton (D) 54% [58%] (59%)
  • Chris Christie (R) 34% [31%] (32%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 60%
  • Jeb Bush (R) 29%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 61%
  • Rand Paul (R) 30%
  • Andrew Cuomo (D) 47% [50%] (46%)
  • Chris Christie (R) 37% [34%] (38%)
  • Andrew Cuomo (D) 53%
  • Jeb Bush (R) 30%
  • Andrew Cuomo (D) 55%
  • Rand Paul (R) 31%

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

  • Hillary Clinton 62% [65%] (71%) / 34% [30%] (24%) {+28%}
  • Andrew Cuomo 55% [59%] (52%) / 36% [28%] (27%) {+19%}
  • Chris Christie 46% [41%] (55%) / 39% [38%] (17%) {+7%}
  • Rand Paul 31% / 37% {-6%}
  • Jeb Bush 31% / 44% {-13%}

Survey of 1,034 New York State voters was conducted August 14-17, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 3.1 percentage points. Party ID: 40% [40%] (44%) Democrat; 22% [21%] (19%) Republican; 28% [32%] (32%) Independent. Results from the poll conducted February 6-10, 2014 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 11-17, 2013 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 12:00 pm. Filed under 2016, Andrew Cuomo, Hillary Clinton, Poll Watch

Poll Watch: USA Today/Suffolk University North Carolina 2014 Senatorial Survey

USA Today/Suffolk University North Carolina 2014 Senate Poll

  • Kay Hagan (D) 45%
  • Thom Tillis (R) 43%
  • Sean Haugh (L) 5%
  • Undecided 7%

Survey of 500 likely voters was conducted August 16-19, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 4.4 percentage points.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 11:00 am. Filed under 2014, Poll Watch

Poll Watch: PPP (D) North Carolina 2016 Presidential Survey

PPP (D) North Carolina 2016 Presidential Poll

  • Hillary Clinton (D) 45% {46%} [47%] (48%) {49%} [48%]
  • Mike Huckabee (R) 44% {43%} [43%] (43%) {42%} [43%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 46% {45%} [45%] (45%) {47%} [47%] (46%) {46%} [47%]
  • Jeb Bush (R) 42% {44%} [42%] (44%) {46%} [43%] (44%) {45%} [43%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 47% {46%} [45%] (47%) {49%} [47%] (47%) {48%} [50%] (52%) 
  • Rand Paul (R) 42% {43%} [44%] (43%) {43%} [44%] (43%) {44%} [41%] (40%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 47% (47%) {49%} [51%]
  • Ted Cruz (R) 41% (41%) {41%} [39%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 45% {45%} [44%] (46%) {46%} [45%](42%) {42%} [43%]
  • Chris Christie (R) 38% {41%} [40%] (44%) {42%} [42%] (43%){45%} [46%]

(more…)

by @ 10:15 am. Filed under 2016, Hillary Clinton, Poll Watch

August 20, 2014

Poll Watch: Rasmussen Montana 2014 Senatorial Survey

Rasmussen Montana 2014 Senate Poll

  • Steve Daines (R) 55%
  • Amanda Curtis (D) 35%

Survey of 750 likely voters was conducted August 18-19, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points. 

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 12:35 pm. Filed under 2014, Poll Watch

Poll Watch: SurveyUSA Florida 2014 Gubernatorial Survey

SurveyUSA Florida 2014 Gubernatorial Poll

  • Rick Scott (R) 44% {45%} [40%] (45%) {42%} [40%] (42%){41%} [41%] (41%)
  • Charlie Crist (D) 41% {43%} [46%] (43%) {41%} [44%] (40%){44%} [44%] (46%)
  • Adrian Wyllie (L) 4%

Survey of likely voters was released August 19, 2014 for WFLA-TV.  The margin of error is +/- 4.2 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted July 31 – August 4, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted July 17-21, 2014 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted June 30 – July 2, 2014 are in parentheses.Results from the poll conducted June 20-23, 2014 are in curly brackets.Results from the poll conducted June 5-10, 2014 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 20-22, 2014 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted May 9-12, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll released April 29, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted April 10-14, 2014 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 8:00 am. Filed under 2014, Poll Watch

Poll Watch: PPP (D) North Carolina 2014 Senatorial Survey

PPP (D) North Carolina 2014 Senate Poll

  • Kay Hagan (D) 42% (41%) [39%] {38%} (43%) [45%] {40%} (42%) [44%] {44%}
  • Thom Tillis (R) 38% (34%) [34%] {36%} (41%) [43%] {42%} (43%) [42%] {42%}
  • Sean Haugh (L) 8% (8%) [11%] {11%}

Among Men

  • Thom Tillis (R) 44% (42%) [39%] {42%} (42%) [50%] {47%} (48%) [45%] {48%}
  • Kay Hagan (D) 38% (38%) [39%] {36%} (47%) [42%] {42%} (43%) [43%] {42%}
  • Sean Haugh (L) 9% (9%) [10%] {12%}

Among Women

  • Kay Hagan (D) 45% (44%) [39%] {40%} (39%) [47%] {39%} (41%) [46%] {46%}
  • Thom Tillis (R) 32% (27%) [29%] {31%} (40%) [37%] {38%}(39%) [40%] {37%}
  • Sean Haugh (L) 7% (8%) [12%] {10%}

Horse race, with Haugh supporters allocated to whether they would vote for Hagan or Tillis

  • Kay Hagan (D) 43% (42%) [42%] {41%}
  • Thom Tillis (R) 42% (39%) [38%] {41%}

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

  • Sean Haugh 8% (7%) / 17% (20%) {-9%}
  • Thom Tillis 28% (24%) [23%] {30%} (20%) [18%] {15%} (15%) [12%] {16%} / 48% (47%) [45%] {46%} (39%) [37%] {29%} (28%) [30%] {28%} {-20%}

Do you approve or disapprove Senator Kay Hagan’s job performance?

  • Approve 42% (40%) [42%] {38%} (41%) [41%] {41%} (39%) [43%] {44%}
  • Disapprove 49% (50%) [46%] {49%} (48%) [50%] {50%} (49%) [49%] {49%}

Survey of 856 likely voters was conducted August 14-17, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 3.4 percentage points. Party ID: 42% (44%) [43%] {42%} (42%) [42%] {39%} [43%] {45%} Democrat; 31% (34%) [36%] {35%} (36%) [35%] {34%} [34%] {33%} Republican; 27% (22%) [22%] {23%} (22%) [23%] {27%} [23%] {21%} Independent/Other.  Results from the poll conducted July 17-20, 2014 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted June 12-15, 2014 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 9-11, 2014 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 3-6, 2014 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted March 6-9, 2014 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 6-9, 2014 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 9-12, 2014 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted December 5-8, 2013 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 8-11, 2013 are in curly brackets.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 4:00 am. Filed under 2014, Poll Watch

August 19, 2014

Political Torture — Obama style

The old cliche about demise from a thousand cuts comes from an ancient Chinese torture. What’s happening to the Democratic Party today, defeat by a million failures, is caused by its own torture of public policies.

Initially it was thought that the 2014 midterm elections might go badly for the current ruling party because a major policy failure such as Obamacare alone would turn voters against it, as happened in 2010. If that were so, the Democrats might have repaired their position by compromising on healthcare reform and accepted some Republican changes to the law so preemptively passed by the Democratic Congress in 2010, and signed by the president. With the U.S. house of representatives controlled by the Republican (since 2011), this could have indeed happened, but I’m not so sure it would have substantially changed the growing voter mood against the president and his party. The growing negative voter mood appears to be arising from a myriad of failures.

It is now very clear that Barack Obama and those around him had in mind some very radical changes in public policy when they took office in January, 2009, and began to implement them. With a Republican U.S. house and public opinion resisting them, however, they have been blocked from many of their changes. At the same time, using executive orders, they put into effect many others, particularly a steady stream of regulations, some of which are choking small businesses across the nation. The U.S. supreme court has already ruled that one of Mr. Obama’s executive presumptions was unconstitutional, and it’s quite possible it will do the same for others, including an unprecedented suit against him by Speaker of the House John Boehner.

The point is that voters voted against Obamacare in 2010 as an abstraction, that is, as something they intuitively felt could not work. In 2014, Obamacare is a reality, and touches millions of Americans. It is true that the reform benefits some Americans without any previous health insurance, but at the same time many more Americans are observing the cost of their health insurance going up, their benefits reduced, their healthcare access limited, and the whole medical/hospital industry in worrisome turmoil. (And now there are reports that perhaps up to 30% of those who signed up for Obamacare are no longer making payments and thus are opting out of the system.)

Raising the minimum wage does benefit some workers. But the impact on American business is already becoming evident, as prices rise where possible, workers lose their jobs when raising prices is not feasible, and in cases where neither can be done, enterprises are simply going out of business. More serious than this one policy is the plethora of new regulations cascading out of Washington. Not all of these regulations are bad ones, but many of them are punitive, unnecessary, and unmanageable. Many more Americans feel the negative aspects of these policies than realize their alleged benefits.

Raising taxes does, in the short term, raise some revenue, especially revenue for increased government intrusion in the market place. In the long term, however, raising taxes inhibits growth and healthy infusion of revenue into the economic system. Moreover, the middle class (where most independent voters are) feels the brunt of higher taxes, and are forced to reduce their spending (which in turn, deflates the economy).

Centralized and bureaucratic government is a mainstay of liberal politics. Its rationale is that government is a better steward of the public good. In reality, this has rarely proven to be true, particularly as democratic societies mature. Built into the U.S. constitution is a balance between the rights and duties of states and those of the federal government. At the turn of the 20th century, particularly just after World War I, a series of problems and public projects were resolved by substantially increasing the federal role (e.g. Hoover Dam in the Far West, the Great Flood of 1927 in the Midwest), and this only increased significantly during the Great Depression. American society has changed much since then, however, and the rationale for so much centralized government, it can be persuasively argued, has diminished.

Today, millions of Americans living in rural areas, small towns, exurbs and suburbs feel the intrusion of Washington, DC first hand. It does not matter which political party they have felt part of in the past. In fact, I think it is fair to say that the great recent rise in the number of independent voters live in these places.

Most of these independents voted for Barack Obama in 2008, and many (but less) of them voted for him again in 2012. The polls indicate that they would not vote for him again, nor for his party. These voters are not happy. They are not happy at all. They don’t have to admit publicly, however, that they made a mistake in 2008 and 2012. All they have to do is vote against Democrats in 2014.

And that is what they seem increasingly likely to do.

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Copyright (c) 2014 by Barry Casselman. All rights reserved.

by @ 4:44 pm. Filed under 2014, Campaign Issues, Obamacare, The Campaign Trail

Poll Watch: SurveyUSA Georgia 2014 Senatorial Survey

  • David Perdue (R) 50% (43%)
  • Michelle Nunn (D) 41% (38%)
  • Amanda Swafford (L) 3% (6%)
  • Undecided 6% (14%)

Among Men

  • David Perdue (R) 56% (50%)
  • Michelle Nunn (D) 37% (33%)
  • Amanda Swafford (L) 2% (6%)
  • Undecided 4% (11%)

Among Women 

  • Michelle Nunn (D) 46% (44%)
  • David Perdue (R) 44% (35%)
  • Amanda Swafford (L) 3% (5%)
  • Undecided 7% (16%)

Survey of 560 likely voters was conducted August 14-17, 2014 for WXIA-TV Atlanta.  The margin of error is +/- 4.2 percentage points.  Party ID: 40% (38%) Republican; 38% (35%) Democrat; 21% (25%) Independent.  Ideology: 44% (40%) Conservative; 38% (38%) Moderate; 13% (15%) Liberal.  Gender: (53%) Male; (47%) Female.  Race: 63% (65%) White; 26% (24%) Black; 7% (7%) Hispanic. Results from the poll conducted June 3-5, 2014 are in parentheses

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 10:30 am. Filed under 2014, Poll Watch

Poll Watch: Rasmussen President Obama Job Approval Survey

Rasmussen President Obama Job Approval Poll 

How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as president?

  • Strongly approve 23%
  • Somewhat approve 24%
  • Somewhat disapprove 12%
  • Strongly disapprove 40%

President Obama Job Approval

  • Approve 47%
  • Disapprove 52%

Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 500 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. To reach those who have abandoned traditional landline telephones, Rasmussen Reports uses an online survey tool to interview randomly selected participants from a demographically diverse panel. The margin of sampling error for the full sample of 1,500 Likely Voters is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

by @ 10:28 am. Filed under 2014, Barack Obama, Poll Watch

August 18, 2014

Poll Watch: InsiderAdvantage/Opinion Savvy (R) Georgia 2014 Senate Survey

InsiderAdvantage/Opinion Savvy (R) Georgia 2014 Senate Poll

  • David Perdue (R) 47%
  • Michelle Nunn (D) 40%
  • Amanda Swafford (L) 8%
  • Undecided 5% 

Survey of 719 likely GOP primary voters was conducted August 12-13, 2014.  The margin of error is +/- 3.7 percentage points.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 4:23 pm. Filed under 2014, Poll Watch

Poll Watch: Rasmussen Minnesota 2014 Senatorial Survey

Rasmussen Minnesota 2014 Senate Poll

  • Al Franken (D) 50%
  • Mike McFadden (R) 42%
  • Some other candidate 2%
  • Undecided 6%

Survey of 750 likely voters was conducted August 13-14, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 12:17 pm. Filed under 2014, Poll Watch

Poll Watch: Quinnipiac New Jersey 2014 Senatorial Survey

Quinnipiac New Jersey 2014 Senate Poll

  • Cory Booker (D) 47%
  • Jeff Bell (R) 37%

Among Independents 

  • Cory Booker (D) 42%
  • Jeff Bell (R) 34%

Among Men

  • Jeff Bell (R) 42%
  • Cory Booker (D) 40%

Among Women 

  • Cory Booker (D) 53%
  • Jeff Bell (R) 32%

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

  • Cory Booker 47% / 27% {+20%}
  • Jeff Bell 16% / 5% {+11%}

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Cory Booker is handling his job as United States Senator?

  • Approve 47%
  • Disapprove 27%

Do you feel that Cory Booker deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected?

  • Yes/Deserves 48%
  • No/Does not 31%

Survey of 1,148 registered voters was conducted July 31 – August 4, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 2.9 percentage points.  Party ID: 34%Democrat; 24% Republican; 35% Independent; 7% Other/Don’t know.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 10:23 am. Filed under 2014, Poll Watch

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