February 28, 2015

Poll Watch: Rutgers-Eagleton New Jersey 2016 Presidential Survey

Rutgers-Eagleton New Jersey 2016 Presidential Poll

  • Hillary Clinton (D) 58% {49%} [51%] (51%)
  • Chris Christie (R) 35% {39%} [40%] (41%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 58%
  • Jeb Bush (R) 32%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 60%
  • Scott Walker (R) 29%

Survey of 694 registered voters was conducted February 3-10, 2015.  The margin of error is +/- 4.2 percentage points. Party ID: 34% {34%} [33%] (36%) Democrat; 21% {20%} [19%] (23%) Republican; 45% {46%} [47%] (41%) Independent/Other. Results from the poll conducted December 3-10, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted July 28 – August 5, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted February 22-28, 2014 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 4:00 am. Filed under 2016, Poll Watch

February 27, 2015

Poll Watch: Elon University North Carolina 2016 Presidential Survey

Elon University North Carolina 2016 Presidential Poll

  • Hillary Clinton (D) 45.7%
  • Jeb Bush (R) 40.2%

Survey of 773 registered North Carolina voters was conducted February 16-20, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 3.52 percentage points

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 11:30 am. Filed under 2016, Hillary Clinton, Jeb Bush, Poll Watch

Poll Watch: PPP (D) 2016 National Presidential Survey

PPP (D) 2016 National Presidential Poll

  • Hillary Clinton (D) 47% [46%] (47%) {46%} [48%] (49%) {47%} [51%] (49%)
  • Rand Paul (R) 40% [39%] (42%) {43%} [43%] (37%) {39%} [41%] (43%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 48%
  • Rick Perry (R) 41%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 48% (48%) {45%} [51%] (49%) {49%} [51%]
  • Marco Rubio (R) 41% (40%) {40%} [41%] (42%) {41%} [37%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 48% [45%] (46%) {45%} [42%] (44%) {43%} [47%] (46%) {46%} [44%]
  • Chris Christie (R) 40% [40%] (42%) {43%} [45%] (39%) {42%} [44%] (42%) {41%} [42%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 48%
  • Ben Carson (R) 40%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 48% [45%]
  • Scott Walker (R) 40% [42%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 50% (49%) {46%} [48%]
  • Mike Huckabee (R) 41% (42%) {43%} [42%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 50% [45%] (47%) {45%} [48%] (48%) {44%} {49%} [51%]
  • Jeb Bush (R) 40% [41%] (44%) {43%} [43%] (39%) {41%} {43%} [37%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 50% (51%) {47%} [49%] (50%)
  • Ted Cruz (R) 40% (40%) {41%} [41%] (33%)
  • Jeb Bush (R) 45% (43%) {45%} {45%}
  • Joe Biden (D) 39% (42%) {41%} {48%}
  • Jeb Bush (R) 43%
  • Elizabeth Warren (D) 41%

National survey of 691 registered voters was conducted February 20-22, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 3.7 percentage points. Party ID: 40% [39%] (41%) {39%} [40%] (38%) {41%} [41%] (38%) {42%} [43%] (44%) Democrat; 34% [37%] (34%) {36%} [34%] (34%) {32%} [33%] (34%) {33%} [34%] (32%) Republican; 26% [23%] (26%) {26%} [26%] (28%) {26%} [26%] (28%) {25%} [23%] (24%) Independent/Other.  Results from the poll conducted January 20-21, 2015 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted March 6-9, 2014 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted January 23-26, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conductedDecember 12-15, 2013 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted October 29-31, 2013 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted July 19-21, 2013 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 6-9, 2013 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 27-30, 2013 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted January 31 – February 3, 2013 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 3-6, 2013 are in square brackets.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 4:00 am. Filed under 2016, Poll Watch

February 26, 2015

The Science Is Settled: Scott Walker Is Boring

… or so we were repeatedly assured for months and months. And then the Iowa speech happened.

Just a fluke probably. No doubt he’d put the CPAC crowd to sleep. Or maybe not.

National Review says he received ‘several’ standing ovations, and Drudge’s headline as I write this is Wowwow Walker.

From NR:

Walker Thrills a Packed House at CPAC

Walker’s speech, one of the most anticipated of the conference, capped off the first day, and had the auditorium filled to capacity, including crowds standing alongside the walls. Before Walker wrapped up, the crowd briefly erupted into a chant of “run, Scott, run” when talk on stage turned to 2016. “I’ve run three time in the last four years, so I’m getting pretty used to it,” he said.

Like I said – really, really boring.

by @ 6:40 pm. Filed under Scott Walker

Jeb Bush Pro Same Sex Marriage?

Buzzfeed thinks he just might be:

Bush’s official stance is that he believes marriage should be between a man and a woman, and that states should have the right to craft their own laws on the matter, free of tampering from federal courts.

But inside Bush’s orbit, some believe his personal feelings on the subject may have evolved beyond his on-the-record statements. Three Republican supporters who have recently spoken with Bush as he’s blitzed the GOP fundraising circuit told BuzzFeed News they came away with the impression that on the question of marriage equality, he was supportive at best and agnostic at worst.

“He wants to do the respectful, human thing,” said one of the Republicans, a donor who requested anonymity to comment on private conversations.

If, as many observers expect, the Supreme Court rules this June to extend marriage rights to all same-sex couples nationwide, some of Bush’s pro-gay donors are hoping he will use the moment to fully pivot toward an embrace of marriage equality — turning himself into the first serious pro-gay GOP presidential candidate.

“His thinking appears to have evolved,” said David Aufhauser, a former senior Treasury official who co-hosted a fundraiser for Bush earlier this month in Virginia.

This is the man who has expressed concern about pretending to be Conservative in order to win the nomination.

You don’t suppose that this getting published the day before Sean Hannity is going to interview Bush live onstage at CPAC is purely coincidental, do you?

by @ 4:04 pm. Filed under Jeb Bush

Ben Carson at CPAC

Ben Carson gives the opening address at CPAC. C-SPAN has video of the first round of speeches here. His speech begins at 11:45.  It runs about twenty minutes.

Here are just a couple highlights:

“It’s interesting to me that the Left in particular loves to re-label and rename things. For instance, if you’re pro-life, you’re anti-woman. If you’re pro-traditional family, then you’re a homophobe…if you’re black, and you oppose a progressive agenda, you’re crazy. .”

“We are a very smart people and a very compassionate people, and we need to find out how [to] strengthen the framework of this country. It is our responsibility to take care of the indigent; it is not the government’s responsibility.”

PPP has him in second place behind Scott Walker and ahead of Jeb Bush in their latest national poll. Quinipiac recently had him in third place in Iowa, trailing Walker and Rand Paul, tied with Mike Huckabee, and once again ahead of Jeb Bush who only manages a fifth place finish.

For now he is solidly on the leaderboard. Can he stay there? Who knows. Go to the video and determine for yourself if you think he has what it takes to finish strong, or if he is going to end up being just another flash-in-the-pan.



by @ 3:46 pm. Filed under Ben Carson, Jeb Bush, Mike Huckabee, Rand Paul, Scott Walker

Walker Pushes Back

Scott Walker has an op-ed in today’s USAToday. In it, he pushes back at the news media who have been trying to rip him to shreds these past weeks:

Americans believe our nation is facing some substantial challenges. Government spending is out of control. Terrorists seek to destroy our way of life. Our economic recovery has been slow. Our borders aren’t secure. The federal government has usurped powers that rightly belong to our states.

And every day across Wisconsin, and as I travel the nation, I hear from people who share with me their worries about — and their hopes for — our country.

He goes on to list a series of issues that he feels Americans across the country are concerned about. He then finishes his op-ed:

There has been much discussion about a media double standard where Republicans are covered differently than Democrats, asked to weigh in on issues the Democrats don’t face. As a result, when we refuse to take the media’s bait, we suffer.

I felt it this week when I was asked to weigh in on what other people said and did and what others’ beliefs are. If you are looking for answers to those questions, ask those people.

I will always choose to focus on what matters to the American people, not what matters to the media.


by @ 9:30 am. Filed under Scott Walker

Walker, Education, and Image

People don’t vote for candidates, they vote for an image.

That’s a general axiom Democrats seem to understand much better than Republicans at this stage of the game. Politics has always been about trying to market yourself — we can go all the way back to Abraham Lincoln’s campaign team famously choosing “Honest Abe” to market their candidate, for instance — and likewise, marketing your opponent as someone Jack and Jill Voter couldn’t pull the lever for. But in today’s intensely media-saturated, image-and-symbol driven culture, it matters more than ever before.

As I wrote about seven years ago (!) here at Race, President Barack Obama is a modern shining example of this fact. Nobody cared what his positions were on the issues. For most American voters, Obama was simply and powerfully an image of hope and progress. They never factored in his actual stances on issues, they were not voting for an agenda or a political viewpoint or a party… they were voting for an image. A caricature of sorts. A carefully crafted, marketed image.

And it worked.

In 2012, Mitt Romney was the victim of the converse of this rule. President Obama and his team managed to paint Governor Romney (sometimes with the Governor’s unintended assistance) as a wealthy, out-of-touch woman-hater. Even though the facts stood contrary to that image (see Women, Binder Full of), that is how voters saw and believed the image of Governor Romney. The election did not come down to Obama and Romney, it came down to hope and inspiration versus the rich guy who doesn’t care.

This issue of image is immediately what came to mind when the brouhaha over Governor Scott Walker’s education was suddenly thrust into the top headlines this past week. Governor Walker, for those who may be arriving late to the scene of the crash, left college before he finished his senior year. He has no college degree to his name. For some in the media, this calls into question his fitness to serve as President of the United States.

Allow me to pause for a moment and be as clear as possible here: I do not believe a college degree is, or should be, a requirement to serve as President of the United States. The Constitution never places any kind of qualifying educational standard on potential candidates. Governor Walker’s accomplishments stand on their own, with or without a college degree, and to somehow denigrate them now, after the fact, because he didn’t finish his senior year is beyond the pale.

Those are the facts. However… again, we must take into account the issue of identity. By itself, a lack of college degree would be meaningless. At the same time the media began questioning that, however, they also realized something else about Scott Walker: he doesn’t believe in evolution. Now again: on this specific issue, I give a hearty, “Who cares?”. I excoriated the debate moderators way back in 2007 for asking the GOP candidates if they believed in evolution or creationism, and I would excoriate them again today. Factually speaking, it has no bearing on how well someone will govern this country. But now we have two pieces of information on which opponents will begin crafting Scott Walker’s image: he never finished college, and he doesn’t believe in evolution.

Now, add a third item of interest: Wisconsin is currently experiencing some pretty sizeable bumps fiscally speaking (which will undoubtedly and messily complicate Governor Walker’s campaign-to-be). In order to close a large budget deficit, Walker has proposed cutting hundreds of millions of dollars from… Wisconsin state university budgets.

So now we can easily imagine the line of attack on Governor Walker: a college dropout who doesn’t believe in evolution and wants to cut the budgets of higher learning institutions across his home state. Not exactly a pretty picture. Not a winning image. The cherry on top, of course, is that Governor Walker is a Republican, a party many Americans already see as being anti-science and anti-education (see AP History in Oklahoma, for instance). He plays into the stereotypes with little to no effort required from his opponents.

Of course, Governor Walker isn’t the only Republican governor talking about cutting higher education funding, which just exacerbates the problem. Governors Jindal and Christie have proposed cutting university funding in Louisiana and New Jersey as ways to fill their respective state budget shortfalls as well. When you are a potential candidate exploring a presidential primary full of voters who believe the words of Grover Norquist as gospel truth, common sense financial solutions can take a back seat to becoming a perceived enemy to higher education. This is especially true and dangerous for Governor Walker, given the overall image starting to be painted of him. Every stumble and misspoken phrase along the campaign trail, which might be forgiven from other candidates, will be treated as headline news from the Wisconsin governor.

None of this is a reason for Republicans to avoid nominating Walker. He may well end up being the best candidate in the field. But if they do, the GOP must understand the hand they’ve been dealt and respond accordingly — and the past week hasn’t been an encouraging response on that front. Republicans can circle the wagons and rally ‘round the flag as much as they want on this one, screaming about a biased and elitist media until their face turns blue. But that will do little to nothing to actually solving the image problem Walker is about to be branded with. Walker must work overtime to paint an alternative image — a more positive picture of who he is that can shatter some of these early stereotypes and display him as an intelligent, competent leader. There is a massive difference between being viewed as a blue collar, folksy midwesterner (on the balance, a very positive image) and being lumped in with the Sarah Palins and Rick Perrys of the world. It will be interesting to watch if and how Walker and his team steer this ship toward the former.

by @ 4:00 am. Filed under 2016, Barack Obama, Bobby Jindal, Chris Christie, Mitt Romney, Scott Walker

February 25, 2015

Carly Fiorina’s Supporters Form Super-PAC

The Washington Times reports:

Looking toward the 2016 White House race, supporters of former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina announced Tuesday that they were rolling out a Super PAC on her behalf, as they look to strengthen her likely bid for the GOP presidential nomination.

“Carly For America will continue to build conservative support and help lay the groundwork for a potential presidential candidacy,” Steve DeMaura, executive director of the Super PAC, said in a press release. “Her dedication and understanding of how to unlock the potential of Americans across the country is a breath of fresh air for the GOP.”

The Super PAC also rolled out a 2-minute online ad introducing voters to Ms. Fiorina, as part of its broader effort to draw attention to her life story and promote what they see as her “record of leadership and success.”

Here is the ad they mention:

It’s a good beginning.

Welcome to the race, Carly. The best of luck to you.

by @ 3:45 pm. Filed under Carly Fiorina

Poll Watch: Quinnipiac Iowa 2016 Republican Caucus Survey

Quinnipiac Iowa 2016 GOP Caucus Poll

  • Scott Walker 25%
  • Rand Paul 13%
  • Ben Carson 11%
  • Mike Huckabee 11%
  • Jeb Bush 10%
  • Ted Cruz 5%
  • Chris Christie 4%
  • Marco Rubio 4%
  • Rick Santorum 4%
  • Rick Perry 3%
  • Bobby Jindal 2%
  • John Kasich 0%

Survey of 623 likely Iowa Republican caucus participants was conducted February 16-23, 2015.  The margin of error is +/- 3.9 percentage points. Gender: 60% Men; 40% Women. Political philosophy: 45% Very conservative; 28% Somewhat conservative; 25% Moderate/Liberal.


  • Walker’s doing very well in Iowa. He nearly doubles his closest competitor and enjoys a double digit lead.
  • Carson continues to be a strong second tier candidate.
  • The second tier in Iowa currently is Paul, Carson, Huckabee, Bush. They are bunched up within 3 ppts of each other — the MOE.
  • Bush barely cracks double digits.
  • The “noise” candidates are Cruz, Christie, Rubio,  Santorum, Perry, and Jindal. They are in the lower single digits with only Cruz managing to crack 5 ppts.
  • I am continually struck at the poor showing of Rick Santorum. He finished second in 2012. He should, by all rights, be at least in the second tier, but he consistently polls at or near the bottom of every poll.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

Rubio is Running and Will be a Powerful Contender – But Will Republicans Recognize It?

If the New York Times is to be believed, Senator Marco Rubio has begun telling donors he will be running for President, and will likely announce his candidacy in April.

This could well be a defining moment for a Republican field that is taking longer than expected to take shape. Mitt Romney bowing out of the race opened the door for the candidate many presumed to be the obvious frontrunner: Jeb Bush. Governor Bush is almost certainly running, having spent the past several weeks assembling an all-star fundraising team and enjoying the wide support of the Republican establishment. His behind-the-scenes shock-and-awe strategy is designed to convince others not to run. The grassroots candidates such as Ted Cruz, Ben Carson, Rick Perry, and Rand Paul remain largely unswayed by this show of strength, of course, operating fully in the realm of ideology rather than pragmatism, as is their modus operandi. (Not that there’s anything wrong with that.) Potential candidates on the other side of the equation, however, have a difficult calculation to make now: can they legitimately pose a threat to a Bush candidacy? Can they sway establishment support away from Governor Bush in an atmosphere where the establishment possesses a desire to act more monolithically than ever before?

For some, the answer is becoming clearer, and it’s not what they hoped. Most politicos, for instance, would now consider it a surprise if Governor Chris Christie chose to throw his hat in the ring — quite the change from a year ago. Others like Paul Ryan, Susana Martinez, and Rob Portman have also chosen to bow out.

The only legitimate challenger Jeb Bush seems to have at this early stage in the game is Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker, who at first blush seems to be a fantastic figure to bridge the gap between the Tea Party and the establishment wings of the party. Both groups seem open to at least giving Governor Walker a chance to impress them; what remains to be seen is whether he can meet their expectations (this pundit would personally be surprised if he did).

That leaves a large group of potential candidates who are stuck running the numbers on the backs of cocktail napkins these days. Governors John Kasich and Mike Pence both remain noncommittal, saying they’ll make a decision later in the spring or early summer. If Governor Bush wasn’t headlining this concert, we’d have to believe both men would already be up on stage for a sound check.

Likewise, Governor Mike Huckabee is trying to balance his fundraising ability against the financial realities of Governor Bush’s machine. He’s using his PAC in a way few do any longer: to actually test the water. Governor Huckabee has said it will be “months” before he makes his decision. (Meanwhile, he’s embarking on another book tour that looks an awful lot like the separate book tours he and Governor Palin took during the lead up to the last primary.) Similarly, Governor Bobby Jindal has only narrowed the timeline for his decision down to “the first half” of 2015, potentially leaving the door open for the next four months.

Bringing this back to Senator Rubio, then: this means the Florida Senator is now the first candidate who has looked at the bottom line on the back of that napkin and decided it was worth it to challenge the two-headed Bush/Walker frontrunner. Make no mistake: this could not have been an easy decision for Rubio. In fact, he had more to lose with this decision than any other potential candidate: like Rand Paul, he had to choose between running for President or running for re-election in the Senate. Unlike Rand Paul, Rubio was (and is) being heavily courted by the establishment to keep his Senate seat. Giving up his seat at this stage would mean two things: one, the potential end of his bright career with massive potential in national GOP politics; and two, the potential alienation of the establishment.

At first blush, Marco Rubio and the last GOP nominee, Mitt Romney, seem to have little in common. One is a young, charismatic Senator and the other an aging, wooden Governor. But when Senator Rubio throws his hat in the ring this April, the two will share this vitally important distinction: neither will have the full support of their party, and that will make winning the general election an uphill battle.

Governor Romney was never part of the Republican establishment, only earning their begrudging support in 2012 by default because none of their chosen candidates (Mitch Daniels, Haley Barbourl, John Thune, Jeb Bush, et al) ran. And he was never part of the Republican grassroots, either, despite (and because of) his attempt to remake his record in the 2008 primary. This half-hearted support from Republicans can easily be pointed to as the reason Romney lost the election. Despite winning independent voters by the largest margin for a Republican candidate in recent history — an unbelievable five percent margin over President Barack Obama, and up to a ten percent margin in some swing states like Ohio! (Obama won independents by 8% in 2008, Kerry won them by 1% in 2004, Bush won them by 1% in 2000, and Clinton won them by 8% in 1996 and 6% in 1992) — Romney still lost the election. Why? Because of depressed Republican turnout. Republican turnout as a percentage of the electorate in 2012 matched a recent historical low. In other words, Republicans have nobody but themselves to blame for Obama’s second term in the Oval Office.

Could Senator Rubio find himself in the same boat this time around? He certainly has the same kind of appeal to independents Governor Romney had, and a heaping serving of charisma which the Massachusetts Governor could only dream of. His youth, positive demeanor and vision, and his Hispanic background would all be a massive boon for a party who is desperately trying to expand their identity past the stereotype of angry old white men. All one has to do is picture national campaign ads with Senator Rubio looking directly into the camera and speaking fluent Spanish to understand how powerful his candidacy could be for the Republican Party.

And yet, Republicans are, at this stage, more than quick to attack Rubio and tear him to shreds. The establishment doesn’t like him because he’s not Jeb Bush. The base doesn’t like him because of his break with conservative orthodoxy on immigration (despite the fact that conservative orthodoxy on the issue is both wildly impractical and one of the main reasons the GOP has an identity issue to begin with). And so, should Senator Rubio end up with the nomination (and there is a decently clear path for him to do so — more on that in a later column), he would find himself in the same place as Governor Romney four years ago: with an incredible chance to win the White House, if the Republican Party can get their act together.

by @ 4:00 am. Filed under 2016, Marco Rubio, Republican Party

February 24, 2015

Are the Media’s Efforts to Destroy Walker Backfiring?

In the past week we’ve have seen where the liberal news media has been doing a full-court press on Scott Walker. First there was Credential-gate. They were downright indignant that somebody who didn’t finish college would have the temerity to even hint at running for the Oval Office. While that was going strong, we got the Giuliani blowup on Obama’s patriotism followed by a couple of reporters asking Walker if he thought Obama was a Christian or not. In both the latter cases, the media took offense at Walkers fairly neutral, non-committal answers and went into an apoplectic meltdown of shock, horror, and outrage. Hours (literally) were spent in panel discussion after panel discussion detailing how terrible Walker was for not immediately rushing to the side of Obama defending his honor and roundly condemning anyone who suggested that the President might be less than perfect.

But if their goal was to marginalize Walker and kill his nascent 2016 Presidential campaign before it had a chance to take hold, they appear to have failed. What they did manage to do instead was to bring the name of Scott Walker to the minds of millions of conservative and moderate voters across the nation. It’s been millions of dollars worth of free publicity for Walker, and the results have been rather telling. In three short weeks, the PPP GOP Presidential Primary poll has Walker more than doubling his numbers. He went from 4th place and 11 ppts on January 30th to being out in front with 25 ppts on February 24. He went from being 10 ppts behind the leader to being 7 ppts ahead over his nearest competitor.

This sort of movement is very easy to do early in a campaign before people’s minds have been made up. Scott Walker owes a debt of gratitude for the hyperventilating national press for helping to introduce him to so many of his potential constituents.

And Walker is no flash-in-the-pan either as the string of ABRs were in 2012. He is a sitting governor of a blue state that has been thoroughly vetted already. Any and all dirt about him has already been dug up and aired. And he is used to dealing with the hostile press.

No, I suspect that Walker is on the leaderboard to stay. He may not win the nomination, but he is going to be there to the end. Scott has the efforts of our liberal news media to thank for that.


by @ 5:10 pm. Filed under Scott Walker

Poll Watch: PPP (D) 2016 Republican Nomination Survey

PPP has just released their latest 2016 Presidential polling for the Republican Nomination. Their results for the end of February are as follows:

PPP (D) 2016 GOP Nomination Poll

  • Scott Walker 25% (11%)
  • Ben Carson 18% (15%)
  • Jeb Bush 17% (17%)
  • Mike Huckabee 10% (9%)
  • Chris Christie 5% (7%)
  • Ted Cruz 5% (9%)
  • Rand Paul 4% (4%)
  • Rick Perry 3% (2%)
  • Marco Rubio 3%
  • Someone else/Not sure 11% (5%)

Survey of 316 Republican primary voters was conducted February 20-22, 2015.  The margin of error is +/- 5.5 percentage points.  Political ideology: 38% (38%) Somewhat conservative; 38% (35%) Very conservative; 17% (21%) Moderate; 6% (5%) Somewhat liberal; 2% (1%) Very liberal. Results from the poll conducted January 22-25, 2015 are in parentheses.

Trend lines:

PPP 2016 GOP Presidential Race

Some thoughts:

  1. I think it safe to call Scott Walker the legitimate front runner for now. This in spite of the almost manic frenzy the liberal press has been having lately trying to knock him out of the race.
  2. Jeb Bush is not doing so well. He is stagnating.
  3. Ben Carson is doing very well. He even tops Bush, though well within the MOE.
  4. Mike Huckabee is the only candidate that went from single to double digits. The rest of the field: Christie, Cruz, Paul, Perry, and Rubio — are going nowhere fast.
  5. Mitt Romney dropped out. Now that the dust is beginning to settle, it would appear that Walker and Someone Else/Not Sure are the key beneficiaries of Mitt’s withdrawal.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

Poll Watch: UT/TT Texas 2016 Democratic Primary Survey

  • Hillary Clinton 62% (60%) {64%} [67%] (66%)
  • Elizabeth Warren 12% (13%) {15%} [5%]
  • Joe Biden 6% (10%) {8%} [7%] (11%)
  • Bernie Sanders 5%
  • Jim Webb 1% (1%)
  • Martin O’Malley 1% (0%) {0%} [1%] (0%)

Internet survey of 401 registered Democratic primary voters was conducted February 6-15, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 4.89 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted October 10-19, 2014 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted May 30 – June 8, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted October 18-27, 2013 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted May 31 – June 9, 2013 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 10:24 am. Filed under 2016, Democrats, Hillary Clinton, Poll Watch

Poll Watch: Quinnipiac Colorado 2016 Presidential Survey

Quinnipiac Colorado 2016 Presidential Poll

  • Hillary Clinton (D) 42%
  • Scott Walker (R) 40%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 43% {43%} [43%] (43%) {44%}
  • Rand Paul (R) 41% {46%} [48%] (47%) {47%}
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 44% {44%} [45%] 
  • Mike Huckabee (R) 39% {41%} [44%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 44% {44%} [45%]
  • Jeb Bush (R) 36% {40%} [40%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 43% {42%} [42%] (43%) {38%} [42%] (41%)
  • Chris Christie (R) 34% {40%} [42%] (42%) {46%} [43%] (44%)

Survey of 1,049 registered voters was conducted February 5-15, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points. Party ID: 27% {29%} [26%] (24%) {26%} [27%] (27%) Republican; 25% {27%} [28%] (29%) {29%} [30%] (24%) Democrat; 39% {37%} [37%] (38%) {38%} [36%] (42%) Independent; 9% {6%} [10%] (8%) {6%} [7%] (8%) Other. Results from the poll conducted July 10-14, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted April 15-21, 2014 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 29 – February 2, 2014 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conductedNovember 15-18, 2013 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 15-21, 2013 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted June 5-10, 2013 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 4:00 am. Filed under 2016, Poll Watch

February 23, 2015


1.  Jeb Bush  former Governor of Florida

The scion of the Bush dynasty has had a strong month, pushing his biggest establishment rival, 2012 nominee Mitt Romney, out of the race. Gov. Bush has also secured the backing of key financial players in New York and New Jersey, further eroding the chances of another top rival, Chris Christie. While his problems with the conservative base remain, the former Florida governor is poised to announce a massive fundraising haul at the end of the first quarter, something the Bush team hopes with shock and scare more rivals out of the race.

2.  Scott Walker  Governor of Wisconsin

The governor of Wisconsin has shot to the top of the field in a number of polls following a successful speech in Iowa earlier this month. If you need more evidence of his momentum, look no further then the media’s attempt to smear and disqualify him in recent days. The mainstream press is in full meltdown mode because Gov. Walker refused to denounce former New York City Mayer Rudy Giuliani’s comments from a private fundraiser.  Walker’s refusal to be bullied by the national press mirrors his refusal to be intimidated by public sector unions in Wisconsin, and will only further endear him to the conservative base.

3.  Marco Rubio  U.S. Senator from Florida

Sen. Rubio was an early frontrunner for the 2016 nomination, but the combination of his troubles with immigration reform and the entry of Jeb Bush into the field have complicated the young senator’s path. Rubio’s team says they will not be pushed out of the race by Bush, but the competition for staff and donors in their shared Florida base will likely favor the former governor. Still, Rubio has proven in the past that he can cut an establishment favorite down to size and may be able to do it again. The son of Cuban immigrants is may be the most talented Republican communicator in the country, and should not be underestimated.

4.  Rand Paul  U.S. Senator from Kentucky

The libertarian-leaning senator remains a top contender due to his his strong grassroots organization in Iowa and New Hampshire. Paul has successfully capitalized on his father’s prior campaigns to gain a foothold in the early states. Still, Paul’s unconventional positions, such as his isolationist foreign policy and his ideas for policing and social justice, put the senator out of step with the current direction of the party’s thinking, particularly on ISIS.

5.  Ted Cruz  U.S. Senator from Texas

The Tea Party firebrand will be the favorite of many hardcore activists and religious conservatives. But Cruz has burned a lot of bridges with the establishment, and will likely struggle to build a significant national operation with both his senate colleagues and the business wing of the party working against him. The conservative darling will need to rely on a strong grassroots effort, his network of evangelical leaders, and his debating and media savvy to break through against the support aligning against him.

6.  Mike Huckabee  former Governor of Arkansas

The author and former Fox News host retains positive favorable numbers and a deep connection to the party’s evangelical Christian wing while struggling with the donor class. Despite strong name recognition, Huckabee hasn’t been able to build a viable fundraising network outside of the evangelical grassroots. He seems to be far from the candidate he was in 2008, with a number of odd gaffes kicking off his 2016 consideration.

7.  Bobby Jindal  Governor of Louisiana

Bobby Jindal has been one of the more active potential candidates, leaving little doubt that the term-limited governor will launch a 2016 bid. Jindal’s campaign will be centered around his record as a conservative reformer with real achievements in education and tax policy. He has worked hard to win over the evangelical and activist base of the party without burning bridges to the establishment. The Louisiana governor will have to over come doubts about his stage presence and slipping numbers in his home state if he is to climb into the top tier.

8.  Chris Christie  Governor of New Jersey

Another bad month for the New Jersey governor had further eroded his standing. Terrible new cycles from his botched overseas trip to being upstaged by Jeb Bush in his own back yard has Christie on the ropes. Most politicians would be considered finished after these blunders and scandals, but Christie has the talent to bounce back.

9.  Mike Pence  Governor of Indiana

The conservative governor of Indiana is a rare find in GOP politics; he is someone both well liked by the establishment and grassroots. The former congressman has a strong fiscal conservative record to match his staunch but friendly social conservatism. Pence is a gifted communicator with a background as a talk radio show host prior to entering politics. Despite a solid resume of experience, he will likely be criticized for a lack of accomplishments as a governor with a strong GOP majority in the legislature. Still, if the establishment and grassroots are looking for a compromise candidate, Pence could be their man.

10.  John Kasich  Governor of Ohio

Gov. Kasich’s massive reelection victory in the nation’s most important swing state gives him an electability argument to coincide with a credible record of reform as both a governor and a budget-balancing congressman. His communication skills are very underrated, as is his common man appeal and tragic personal story. With upcoming visits to early primary states, Kasich could emerge as dark horse threat for the nomination.

Honorable Mention: Ben Carson, Rick Perry, Carly Fiorina

No Chance: Lindsey Graham, Rick Santorum, Donald Trump

Dropped Out: Rob Portman, Paul Ryan, Mitt Romney

by @ 2:25 pm. Filed under 2016

Poll Watch: YeeHaw! Cruz and Walker Lead in Texas

A new poll out of Texas has Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker and Texas Senator Ted Cruz neck and neck in the race for the 2016 GOP Presidential nomination. The University of Texas / Texas Tribune have released the following results:

  • Ted Cruz 20% [27%] (33%) {28%} [32%] (25%)
  • Scott Walker 19% [2%] (4%) {6%} [1%]
  • Jeb Bush 9% [7%] (7%) {8%} [9%]
  • Ben Carson 9% [10%]
  • Rick Perry 8% [14%] (7%) {10%} [10%] (10%)
  • Mike Huckabee 5% [7%] (8%)
  • Rand Paul 4% [7%] (9%) {10%} [6%] (13%)
  • Marco Rubio 4% [3%] (6%) {6%} [6%] (11%)
  • Sarah Palin 3%
  • Chris Christie 2% [3%] (3%) {4%} [4%] (8%)
  • Bobby Jindal 1% [2%] (2%) {6%} [3%] (2%)
  • Rick Santorum 1% [1%] (1%) {4%} [3%] (2%)
  • John Kasich 1% [0%]
  • Carly Fiorina 0%
  • John Bolton 0%
  • Lindsey Graham 0%

Internet survey of 547 registered GOP primary voters was conducted February 6-15, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 4.19 percentage points.Results from the poll conducted October 10-19, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted May 30 – June 8, 2014 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted February 7-17, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted October 18-27, 2013are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted May 31 – June 9, 2013 are in parentheses.

The Tribune is calling it a tie.

The result I find most interesting is Rick Perry is in fifth place with less than half the support of either of the front runners. If this keeps up, his nascent 2016 campaign isn’t going to do much better than his 2012 campaign.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

Poll Watch: Field Research California 2016 Democratic Primary Survey

Field Research California 2016 Democratic Primary Poll

  • Hillary Clinton 59%
  • Elizabeth Warren 17%
  • Joe Biden 9%
  • Bernie Sanders 6%
  • Jim Webb 2%
  • Undecided 7%

Survey of 425 likely Democratic primary voters was conducted January 26 – February 16, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 5.0 percentage points.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 10:51 am. Filed under 2016, Democrats, Hillary Clinton, Poll Watch

Poll Watch: Field Research California 2016 Republican Primary Survey

Field Research California 2016 GOP Primary Poll

  • Scott Walker 18%
  • Jeb Bush 16%
  • Rand Paul 10%
  • Ben Carson 8%
  • Marco Rubio 7%
  • Mike Huckabee 5%
  • Ted Cruz 5%
  • Rick Perry 4%
  • Chris Christie 3%
  • Bobby Jindal 1%
  • Lindsey Graham 1%
  • Other 3%
  • Undecided 19%

Survey of 237 likely GOP primary voters was conducted January 26 – February 16, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 5.4 percentage points.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 4:00 am. Filed under 2016, Poll Watch, Republican Party, Scott Walker

February 22, 2015

Weekend Miscellany

I somehow lost the original version of this, so I re-created it as best I could remember. I know I’m missing a couple items. Oh well …

Still lots in here, including a couple additions to R4’16 posts this week, and a new perspective on an ongoing discussion. So dig in. As always, add your own Miscellany in the comments, if you wish.


Addendum to Aggregated Power Rankings

I missed this one, from the Weekly Standard, when I was doing the post on Wednesday. WS has Walker first, Bush second, and is overall so close to the others that it wouldn’t affect anything.


More on the College Degree Brouhaha

Here’s Glenn Reynolds’ take on the subject.

A lot of people don’t know much about him yet, and he may not even be running, but if Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker is elected president in 2016, he’ll immediately accomplish something that no other candidate being talked about can: He’ll lay to rest the absurd belief that you’re a nobody if you don’t have a college degree. And he might even cut into the surprisingly recent takeover of our institutions by an educated mandarin class, something that just might save the country.

Though Walker attended Marquette University, he left before graduating, which has caused some finger-wagging from the usual journalistic suspects. After all, they seem to believe, everyone they know has a college degree, so it must be essential to getting ahead. As the successful governor of an important state, you’d think that Walker’s subsequent career would make his college degree irrelevant, but you’d be wrong.

See also Matthew Newman’s post yesterday.


Obligatory Population Decline Item

Uh-oh, here we go again. This time with a different perspective, though. Stratfor’s head honcho, George Friedman, looks at the economic causes of drops in fertility – primarily urbanization – and, since that’s unlikely to change soon, what the long-term economic consequences might be.

He is considerably less pessimistic than most commenters here. I will summarize (and probably over-simplify) his views as: While GDP may decline together with population, it is likely that, because of improvements in human productivity plus automation, any GDP decline will be smaller than the population decline. Therefore, the remaining population will be richer, on average. Read the whole thing – it’s good.


Kasich in South Carolina

According to the Columbus Dispatch, John Kasich was in SC this week.

He looked the part of a presidential candidate: talking about balanced budgets and immigration before a large crowd in an early-primary state; having his photograph taken with enthusiastic Republicans; and chatting with national and Ohio reporters.

But for those thinking that Gov. John Kasich would announce a bid for next year’s Republican presidential nomination, his answer last night was clear: Not yet.

“All options are on the table, and I’m not even close to making a decision on this,” Kasich told reporters.

I’m prepared to be surprised, and to give Kasich strong consideration if he runs, but I’m inclined to think he won’t, largely because of these two paragraphs:

Unlike former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker and Sens. Ted Cruz of Texas and Rand Paul of Kentucky, Kasich has yet to take the most obligatory of steps.

He has not formed a presidential exploratory committee. He has not raised money for a presidential campaign. His most loyal campaign advisers, such as pollster Ed Goeas of suburban Washington, have signed on with other candidates.


Christie Doesn’t Get It

Interesting item, if true. The report is that Chris Christie is unwilling to recognize that his campaign is pretty much stuck on the runway at this point. He seems to think that charisma will carry him over all obstacles in his way.

As a half-dozen other candidates aggressively raise money and chase endorsements in Iowa and New Hampshire, friends and detractors alike say Mr. Christie’s view of his status and pre-eminence within the Republican field is increasingly at odds with the picture outside his inner circle. [ … ]

“He’s a very popular figure, but he’s made a mistake by not creating the necessary momentum for the kind of national organization you need to be successful,” said Anthony Scaramucci, a New York hedge fund manager who is now backing Gov. Scott Walker of Wisconsin. “He’s not touching enough people. And I think this is a classic rookie mistake.”

Friends say Mr. Christie is both understaffed and too controlling. They also say he is convinced that his raw talent and charisma can overcome the political obstacles in his way. Thomas H. Kean, a former governor of New Jersey and Mr. Christie’s onetime mentor, with whom he mended fences after a public break, said Mr. Christie had “gotten in the habit of kind of doing everything himself.”

“You can’t do that in a presidential campaign,” Mr. Kean said.

Further down, there are some balancing, pro-Christie points, as well as more about Christie being the prisoner of a bubble. Read it all.


Ecuador Last Week

I spent much of last year in Ecuador (wonderful place!), and had the opportunity to be regularly amused by the country’s incredibly thin-skinned president, Rafael Correa (a socialist economist from the University of Illinois).

What is less amusing about Correa is that he is trying to shut down all criticism in the country’s press, and all criticism emanating from anywhere on the internet/Twitter/Facebook/etc. As one example, he has filed take-down notices with YouTube, citing bogus copyright violations.

He has gone after opponents on his weekly radio show, naming and giving contact info on those who have criticized him on Twitter. A US-Brit comedian, John Oliver, recently took out after Correa on his weekly HBO program (which I’ve never seen), citing Correa’s attacks on a teenage Twitter user, among other things..

Oliver portrayed the campaign as beneath the dignity of a president, rolling footage of one of Correa’s weekly broadcast messages in which he lambasted an 18-year-old Twitter user for his insults and calls to violence.

“Oh, 18, so young, so immature — unlike me the 51-year-old head of state who is currently attacking him in public,” Oliver said of Correa. “To be fair to him, that 18-year-old had expressed a hope that Correa would die, but Correa should have people that take care of that sort of thing for him, rather than spending — like he did — nearly 15 minutes calling out online trolls.”

Correa replied with multiple tweets (thereby confirming that Oliver was correct). Among them:

… on the subject of John Oliver: too much noise for such little nuts.

Which does not mean the same in Spanish that it would appear to in English.

But then he says that “’English comedian’ [is] an oxymoron.” Sorry, Rafael, but not being familiar with Monty Python is inexcusable.


Grexit Delayed

Greece has caved and accepted the EU’s loan-extension conditions, though it remains to be seen if they can really meet them.

There was still a shoe to drop on the accord. Under the deal, Greece by Monday must submit concrete plans to eliminate the country’s endemic corruption and force Greek businesses and individuals to pay their taxes.

“Our big anxiety now is whether we can enforce these reforms,” Finance Minister Varoufakis said. “That is the big national bet.”

Even with that, this only delays things until summer.


Briefly Noted

Jon Huntsman Is Not Planning to Challenge Mike Lee: According to the SL Trib.

‘Cuz It’s So Essential to an Understanding of Physics: Physics teacher adds white privilege to the lesson plan. Other teachers, apparently, applaud.

For Our Chicago Readers … together with our condolences on your recent weather, a collection of images from the Trib archives.

by @ 12:00 am. Filed under Misc.

February 21, 2015

Poll Watch: PPP (D) South Carolina 2016 Democratic Primary Survey

  • Hillary Clinton 59%
  • Joe Biden 18%
  • Elizabeth Warren 10% 
  • Martin O’Malley 3%
  • Bernie Sanders 1%
  • Jim Webb 1%
  • Someone else/Undecided 8%

Survey of 252 Democratic primary voters was conducted February 12-15, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 6.2 percentage points. Ideology: 37% Moderate; 24% Somewhat liberal; 22% Very liberal; 14% Somewhat conservative; 3% Very conservative.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 4:00 am. Filed under 2016, Democrats, Hillary Clinton, Poll Watch

February 20, 2015

Poll Watch: PPP (D) South Carolina 2016 Presidential Survey

  • Mike Huckabee (R) 49%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 41%
  • Ben Carson (R) 48%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 41%
  • Jeb Bush (R) 49%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 42%
  • Rick Perry (R) 48%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 43%
  • Scott Walker (R) 46%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 42%
  • Ted Cruz (R) 46%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 43%
  • Chris Christie (R) 43%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 41%
  • Lindsey Graham (R) 45%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 43%
  • Rand Paul (R) 45%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 43%
  • Jeb Bush (R) 50%
  • Elizabeth Warren (D) 34%
  • Jeb Bush (R) 53%
  • Joe Biden (D) 36%

Survey of 868 registered South Carolina voters was conducted February 12-15, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 3.3 percentage points. Party ID: 44% Republican; 32% Democrat; 25% Independent/Other. Ideology: 33% Moderate; 27% Somewhat conservative; 19% Very conservative; 13% Somewhat liberal; 9% Very liberal.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

Poll Watch: PPP (D) South Carolina 2016 Republican Primary Survey

  • Jeb Bush 19%
  • Scott Walker 18%
  • Lindsey Graham 13%
  • Ben Carson 13% 
  • Mike Huckabee 12% 
  • Chris Christie 7%
  • Rand Paul 5%
  • Ted Cruz 3% 
  • Rick Perry 3%
  • Someone else/Not sure 6%

Survey of 525 GOP primary voters was conducted February 12-15, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 4.3 percentage points. Ideology: 38% Somewhat conservative; 33% Very conservative; 23% Moderate; 5% Somewhat liberal; 2% Very liberal.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 10:07 am. Filed under 2016, Jeb Bush, Poll Watch, Republican Party

Poll Watch: Quinnipiac Virginia 2016 Presidential Survey

  • Hillary Clinton (D) 42% (47%)
  • Jeb Bush (R) 42% (39%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 44% (48%) {49%} (51%)
  • Rand Paul (R) 42% (42%) {40%} (37%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 44% (49%)
  • Mike Huckabee (R) 41% (41%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 44% (45%) {42%} [46%] (45%)
  • Chris Christie (R) 39% (41%) {41%} [37%] (40%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 45%
  • Scott Walker (R) 40%

Survey of 1,074 Virginia voters was conducted February 5-15, 2015. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points.  Party ID: 30% (33%) {31%} [32%] (31%) Democrat; 26% (24%) {26%} [22%] (26%) Republican; 34% (35%) {35%} [37%] (36%) Independent; 10% (8%) {9%} [10%] (8%) Other/Don’t know. Gender: 53% (54%) {50%} [52%] (53%) Female; 47% (46%) {50%} [48%] (47%) Male.  Race: 71% (72%) {70%} [69%] (71%) White; 18% (17%) {16%} [17%] (17%) Black; 3% (3%) {4%} [4%] (4%) Hispanic; 8% (8%) {10%} [10%] (9%) Other/Don’t know. Results from the poll conducted March 19-24, 2014 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted September 9-15, 2013 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 14-19, 2013 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 11-15, 2013 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 4:00 am. Filed under 2016, Hillary Clinton, Poll Watch, Republican Party

February 19, 2015

Poll Watch: Gravis Marketing/Townhall (R) Iowa 2016 Presidential Survey

  • Hillary Clinton (D) 44%
  • Rand Paul (R) 39%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 45%
  • Mike Huckabee (R) 40%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 43% [42.6%] (41%)
  • Jeb Bush (R) 37% [43.5%] (41%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 47%
  • Scott Walker (R) 41%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 45%
  • Chris Christie (R) 35%

Survey of 969 registered Iowa voters was conducted February 12-13, 2015  The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted October 20-21, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted September 29-30, 2014 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 5:30 pm. Filed under 2016, Hillary Clinton, Poll Watch, Republican Party

Thoughts On the Latest CNN Poll

The latest CNN poll, as posted below, has Huckabee in the lead with Bush and Walker close behind. After all the usual disclaimers of it being a super early poll and all that goes with it, here are my thoughts:


I can’t help it. It’s not that I am a big fan of Huckabee; I’m not. It’s just that I do not care all the much for Jeb Bush. Any poll that shows the “Republican Establishment’s” anointed one trailing is a good poll for me.

Bush represents the R.E. in a way that Mitt Romney never really did. Sure, they supported Mitt since he just might end up winning the White House, and he was the closest thing in the field to being one of them, but few of them ever seemed all that enthusiastic about him. They tended to treat him more like an outsider, which is not all that surprising really. Mitt never was much of a professional politician. He was a business leader who tried his hand at politics. His financial connections allowed him to get his foot into the clubhouse door but that’s about it. He never was a full member of the club.

Bush is different. The R.E. LOVES him. He’s one of their own after all — a true political insider, a full member of the club.  He has the backing of the Bush political machine, a machine that has won three Presidential campaigns. He’s a man that the professionals can get excited about. But they seem to be the only ones who are all that enthused for him.

How much support does Bush have outside of the R.E.? It doesn’t appear to be all that much. In that respect, he reminds me of John McCain and Bob Dole before him. The only people who seemed to have gotten really excited about either of those two were the members of the R.E.. The rank and file never showed that much enthusiasm for either of them. McCain did manage to hit a rich vein of grassroots support when he chose Sarah Palin for his running-mate, but for himself, there was very little.

Who are the candidates that currently have some serious core support among the rank and file? I would say there are three who currently have the capability of double digit support. In alphabetical order they are:

  • Huckabee,
  • Paul
  • Walker

I don’t see a whole lot of enthusiasm out there for anybody else, at least none that can be measured anywhere near double digits.

Do you?


by @ 12:45 pm. Filed under Jeb Bush, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, Rand Paul, Sarah Palin, Scott Walker

Poll Watch: CNN/ORC 2016 Republican Nomination Survey

CNN/ORC 2016 GOP Nomination Poll

  • Mike Huckabee 17% {6%} [10%] (12%) {11%} [10%] (10%) {14%}
  • Jeb Bush 12% {23%} [14%] (8%) {12%} [13%] (9%) {10%} [6%] (10%)
  • Rand Paul 11% {6%} [8%] (12%) {14%} [13%] (16%) {13%} [13%] (13%)
  • Scott Walker 11% {4%} [5%] (5%) {5%} [7%]
  • Ben Carson 9% {7%} [11%]
  • Chris Christie 7% {13%} [9%] (13%) {8%} [9%] (8%) {10%} [24%] (17%)
  • Marco Rubio 6% {5%} [3%] (6%) {8%} [6%] (5%) {9%} [9%] (9%)
  • Ted Cruz 3% {4%} [7%] (8%) {9%} [7%] (8%) {8%} [10%] (7%)
  • John Kasich 2% {3%} [3%]
  • Rick Perry 2% {4%} [5%] (11%) {6%} [8%] (11%) {8%} [7%] (6%)
  • Rick Santorum 2% {2%} [2%] (3%) {4%} [2%] (3%) {4%} [6%] (5%)
  • Carly Fiorina 1%
  • Lindsey Graham 1%
  • Bobby Jindal 1% {4%} [1%]

Survey of 436 Republicans and GOP-leaning Independents was conducted February 12-15, 2015.  The margin of error is +/- 4.5 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted December 18-21, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted November 21-23, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted July 18-20, 2014 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted May 29 – June 1, 2014 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 2-4, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted March 7-9, 2014 are in parentheses.   Results from the poll conducted January 31 – February 2, 2014 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 18-20, 2013 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 6-8, 2013 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 4:00 am. Filed under 2016, Mike Huckabee, Poll Watch, Republican Party

February 18, 2015

Aggregated Power Rankings

I came across a National Journal ‘power ranking’ of Republican candidates yesterday, and it struck me how many of them I’ve seen. Americans seem to love Top 10 lists (I’ve already seen several for next year’s college football season).

Anyway, it seemed that it might be fun to gather several of them together and aggregate the rankings. The results are below. But first, a few notes:

1. Don’t take them too seriously – neither the components, nor the aggregate.
2. I assembled them by means of typing “Republican presidential power rankings, 2016” (or something like that), into Google, and using whatever credible or semi-credible sources popped up. Oh, and Daily Kos, too, just for giggles (though DK didn’t differ that much from the rest, other than giving Ben Carson by far his highest ranking – good to know somebody is taking the good doctor seriously).
3. Where lists included more than ten, I only listed the top ten.
4. I gave candidates 11 points for a first, 10 for second, etc. If they weren’t in the top ten (or not listed at all), they got a zero.
5. Larry Sabato’s list was in tiers. I used the top three tiers (nine candidates total), and considered those on a given tier to be tied – e.g., the first tier was Bush and Walker, so they each got 10.5.
6. The Fox News  and Max Twain rankings were done before Mitt Romney withdrew, and they both have Romney first – I used the remainder of their list.*

There’s only a little variation at the top of the lists, which means only that a CW has formed that Bush and Walker are out front, for now.


Sources: National Journal, Daily Kos, Red State, Center for Politics, Fox News, Race42016

* Please, please, please do not use this as an excuse to turn the comment section into a bunch of posts about how awesomely awesome Romney is and how he’d mop up the floor with the rest of these guys, etc. We’ve heard it all a gazillion times. Also, please x3 don’t respond to any such posts by telling us how horribly horrible Romney is, he’s such a stiff, etc – we’ve heard that a gazillion times, too. This is not about Romney.

by @ 7:39 pm. Filed under 2016, Republican Party

On Scott Walker and College Degrees

It has come to the attention of most people these days that Scott Walker does not have a college degree. He quit the program before his last year to take a job with the American Red Cross. Now, there are many who are arguing this decision he made 25 years ago needs to be delved into more deeply. There are also those who are arguing that due to his lack of college degree he is unfit to be President of the United States. I have a few things to say to both of those types of people.

First, let’s talk about his lack of college degree. I’ve heard a number of people talking about the fact that they’ve never heard of someone leave college early to start a career. I have. I know of two people personally who were offered jobs while in college. One dropped out to take the job, the other did not. But, the offers were there, were tempting, and left one of them without a college diploma. Was it the wrong decision? That is for them to decide, not me. But, the point I’m trying to make is – people get offered jobs to entice them to leave college and get started right away. They have jobs that need filled immediately and someone who’s a known hard worker is great to fill that position. Why not offer them the job? And in some cases, depending on what your plans are in life – why not take it? For some, it’s a no brainer to take these jobs. For others, it’s a no brainer not to. For Walker, it appeared to be a choice he felt was the right one and he never felt inclined to go back and finish his degree. That’s fine for me and, frankly, I don’t care. It was his decision to make, not mine. His life and I respect his decision he made some 25 years ago. Does he need to offer an explanation? Unless what he did was illegal, not to me. (more…)

by @ 6:00 am. Filed under 2016, Opinion, Scott Walker

Poll Watch: Gravis Marketing/Townhall (R) Iowa 2016 Republican Caucus Survey

Gravis Marketing/Townhall (R) Iowa 2016 GOP Caucus Poll

  • Scott Walker 24% (10%)
  • Rand Paul 10% (8%)
  • Jeb Bush 10% (14%)
  • Chris Christie 9% (5%)
  • Marco Rubio 7% (4%)
  • Mike Huckabee 7% (9%)
  • Rick Santorum 6%
  • Ben Carson 5%
  • Ted Cruz 4% (7%)
  • Carly Fiorina 3%
  • Unsure 15% (18%)

Survey of 343 registered Republican voters was conducted February 12-13, 2015. Results from the poll conducted January 5-7, 2015 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 4:00 am. Filed under 2016, Iowa Caucuses, Poll Watch, Scott Walker

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