September 2, 2014

Poll Watch: SurveyUSA Florida 2014 Gubernatorial Survey

SurveyUSA Florida 2014 Gubernatorial Poll

  • Charlie Crist (D) 45% (41%) {43%} [46%] (43%) {41%} [44%] (40%) {44%} [44%] (46%)
  • Rick Scott (R) 43% (44%) {45%} [40%] (45%) {42%} [40%] (42%) {41%} [41%] (41%)
  • Adrian Wyllie (L) 4% (4%)

Survey of likely voters was released August 29, 2014 for WFLA-TV.  Results from the poll conducted August 15-18, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted July 31 – August 4, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted July 17-21, 2014 are in square brackets.Results from the poll conducted June 30 – July 2, 2014 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted June 20-23, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted June 5-10, 2014 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 20-22, 2014 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted May 9-12, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll released April 29, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted April 10-14, 2014 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 4:31 pm. Filed under 2014, Poll Watch

Poll Watch: Chicago Sun-Times/We Ask America (R) Illinois 2014 Senatorial Survey

  • Dick Durbin (D) 47.78%
  • Jim Oberweis (R) 40.50%
  • Sharon Hansen (L) 4.09%
  • Undecided 7.63%

Survey of 1,054 likely voters was conducted August 27, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 3.02 percentage points.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 11:00 am. Filed under 2014, Poll Watch

Poll Watch: Rasmussen Oklahoma 2014 Senatorial Special Election Survey

Rasmussen Oklahoma 2014 Senate Special Election Poll

  • James Lankford (R) 58%
  • Connie Johnson (D) 29%

Survey of 750 likely voters was conducted August 27-28, 2014. The margin of error is ± 4 percentage points.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 10:15 am. Filed under 2014, Poll Watch

Poll Watch: Charleston Daily Mail West Virginia 2014 Senatorial Survey

Charleston Daily Mail West Virginia 2014 Senate Poll

  • Shelley Moore Capito (R) 54% [49%] (45%)
  • Natalie Tennant (D) 37% [38%] (40%)
  • Undecided 9% [13%] (15%)

Survey of 401 likely West Virginia voters was conducted August 15-23, 2014 by R.L. Repass & Partners. The margin of error is +/- 4.9 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted May 19-22, 2013are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 15-22, 2013 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 9:30 am. Filed under 2014, Poll Watch

Poll Watch: Mitchell Research (R) Michigan 2014 Senatorial Survey

Mitchell Research (R) Michigan 2014 Senate Poll

  • Gary Peters (D) 46% [45%] (43%) {45%} [38%] (33%)
  • Terri Lynn Land (R) 44% [44%] (38%) {42%} [44%] (32%)
  • Undecided 10% [11%] (19%) {14%} [18%] (35%)

Survey of 1,004 likely voters was conducted August 27, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 3.1 percentage points.  Party ID: 43% [43%] (38%) {39%} [38%] (41%) Democrat; 39% [38%] (33%) {35%} [36%] (37%) RepublicanResults from the poll conducted August 5, 2014 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 7-17, 2014 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted June 6, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted April 9, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted March 19-21, 2013are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 8:45 am. Filed under 2014, Poll Watch

Poll Watch: Rasmussen President Obama Job Approval Survey

Rasmussen President Obama Job Approval Poll 

How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as president?

  • Strongly approve 21%
  • Somewhat approve 25%
  • Somewhat disapprove 12%
  • Strongly disapprove 40%

President Obama Job Approval

  • Approve 46%
  • Disapprove 52%

Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 500 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. To reach those who have abandoned traditional landline telephones, Rasmussen Reports uses an online survey tool to interview randomly selected participants from a demographically diverse panel. The margin of sampling error for the full sample of 1,500 Likely Voters is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

by @ 8:38 am. Filed under 2014, Barack Obama, Poll Watch

September 1, 2014

Poll Watch: SurveyUSA Kentucky 2014 Senatorial Survey

SurveyUSA Kentucky 2014 Senate Poll

  • Mitch McConnell (R) 46% {41%} [42%]
  • Alison Lundergan Grimes (D) 42% {39%} [43%]
  • David Patterson (L) 5% {7%} [4%]
  • Undecided 8% {13%} [7%]

Among Men

  • Mitch McConnell (R) 48% {43%} [42%]
  • Alison Lundergan Grimes (D) 38% {39%} [41%]
  • David Patterson (L) 6% {7%} [6%]
  • Undecided 8% {11%} [6%]

Among Women

  • Alison Lundergan Grimes (D) 45% {39%} [45%]
  • Mitch McConnell (R) 44% {39%} [41%]
  • David Patterson (L) 4% {7%} [3%]
  • Undecided 7% {15%} [9%]

Survey of 569 likely voters was conducted August 25-27, 2014.  The margin of error is +/- 3.9 percentage points. Party ID: 47% {42%} [44%] Democrat; 37% {41%} [43%] Republican; 15% {18%} [11%] Independent. Results from the poll conducted July 18-23, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted May 14-16, 2014 are in square brackets.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 12:36 pm. Filed under 2014, Poll Watch

Poll Watch: Rasmussen President Obama Job Approval Survey

Rasmussen President Obama Job Approval Poll 

How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as president?

  • Strongly approve 21%
  • Somewhat approve 25%
  • Somewhat disapprove 12%
  • Strongly disapprove 40%

President Obama Job Approval

  • Approve 46%
  • Disapprove 52%

Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 500 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. To reach those who have abandoned traditional landline telephones, Rasmussen Reports uses an online survey tool to interview randomly selected participants from a demographically diverse panel. The margin of sampling error for the full sample of 1,500 Likely Voters is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

by @ 12:35 pm. Filed under 2014, Barack Obama, Poll Watch

August 31, 2014

Poll Watch: PPP (D) New Hampshire 2014 Senatorial Survey

PPP (D) New Hampshire 2014 Senate Poll

  • Jeanne Shaheen (D) 50%
  • Scott Brown (R) 44%

Among Democrats

  • Jeanne Shaheen (D) 85%
  • Scott Brown (R) 14%

Among Republicans
  • Scott Brown (R) 76%
  • Jeanne Shaheen (D) 16%

Among Independents
  • Scott Brown (R) 46%
  • Jeanne Shaheen (D) 45%

Among Men

  • Jeanne Shaheen (D) 47%
  • Scott Brown (R) 46%

Among Women

  • Jeanne Shaheen (D) 52%
  • Scott Brown (R) 42%

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net} 

  • Jeanne Shaheen 52% / 42% {+10%}
  • Scott Brown 42% / 49% {-7%}

Survey of 766 likely voters was conducted August 27-28, 2014 for The League of Conservation Voters. Party ID: 32% Democrat; 27% Republican; 41% Independent/Other. Gender: 53% Women; 47% Men.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 11:40 am. Filed under 2014, Poll Watch

Poll Watch: Rasmussen President Obama Job Approval Survey

Rasmussen President Obama Job Approval Poll 

How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as president?

  • Strongly approve 24%
  • Somewhat approve 22%
  • Somewhat disapprove 11%
  • Strongly disapprove 41%

President Obama Job Approval

  • Approve 46%
  • Disapprove 52%

Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 500 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. To reach those who have abandoned traditional landline telephones, Rasmussen Reports uses an online survey tool to interview randomly selected participants from a demographically diverse panel. The margin of sampling error for the full sample of 1,500 Likely Voters is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

by @ 11:38 am. Filed under 2014, Barack Obama, Poll Watch

August 30, 2014

Poll Watch: Rasmussen Generic Congressional Ballot Survey

Rasmussen Generic Congressional Ballot Survey

  • Republicans 40% 39% 40% 42% 39% 39% 38% 38% 38% 38% 37% 37% 38% 38% 37% 38% 37% 40% 41% 38% 39% 38% 37% 39% 39% 36% 37% 37% 38% 40% 37% 35% 37%  38% 40% (42%) 40% (43%) (43%) (40%) (40%) (39%) (37%) (37%) (36%) (38%) (38%) (37%)
  • Democrats 39% 39%  39% 38% 41% 39% 39% 41% 40% 40% 39% 41% 41% 42% 41% 40% 41% 38% 40% 40% 40% 39% 41% 38% 39% 39% 41% 41% 40% 39% 42% 41% 41% 40% 40% (39%) 40% (38%) (38%) (41%) (39%) (41%) (43%) (43%) (43%) (45%) (42%) (40%)

The national telephone survey of 3,500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports from August 18-24, 2014. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

by @ 11:44 am. Filed under 2014, Poll Watch

Poll Watch: Rasmussen President Obama Job Approval Survey

Rasmussen President Obama Job Approval Poll 

How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as president?

  • Strongly approve 24%
  • Somewhat approve 23%
  • Somewhat disapprove 11%
  • Strongly disapprove 41%

President Obama Job Approval

  • Approve 47%
  • Disapprove 52%

Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 500 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. To reach those who have abandoned traditional landline telephones, Rasmussen Reports uses an online survey tool to interview randomly selected participants from a demographically diverse panel. The margin of sampling error for the full sample of 1,500 Likely Voters is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

by @ 11:42 am. Filed under 2014, Barack Obama, Poll Watch

August 29, 2014

Poll Watch: EPIC-MRA Michigan 2014 Senatorial Survey

EPIC-MRA Michigan 2014 Senate Poll

  • Gary Peters (D) 45% (45%) {44%} [38%] (38%)
  • Terri Lynn Land (R) 39% (36%) {38%} [41%] (37%)

Survey of 600 likely voters was conducted August 22-25, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted July 12-15, 2014 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted May 17-20, 2014 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 5-11, 2014 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 7-10, 2013 are in parentheses

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 9:27 am. Filed under 2014, Poll Watch

Poll Watch: Rasmussen President Obama Job Approval Survey

Rasmussen President Obama Job Approval Poll 

How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as president?

  • Strongly approve 23%
  • Somewhat approve 23%
  • Somewhat disapprove 10%
  • Strongly disapprove 42%

President Obama Job Approval

  • Approve 46%
  • Disapprove 52%

Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 500 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. To reach those who have abandoned traditional landline telephones, Rasmussen Reports uses an online survey tool to interview randomly selected participants from a demographically diverse panel. The margin of sampling error for the full sample of 1,500 Likely Voters is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

by @ 9:22 am. Filed under 2014, Barack Obama, Poll Watch

August 28, 2014

Wave Theory – 2014 Election Version

Some pundits and pollsters are now asking out loud if a voter wave is coming for the national mid-term 2014 elections in November.

The reasons for these questions is the lack of polling data with which dispositively to predict there will be one.

So far, there is little question that the traditional boost for the party not holding the White House is taking place. Republicans seem on target to win back control of the U.S. senate (albeit by a narrow margin), increase their margin in the U.S. house, and to hold their own in state governors  (although almost twice as many GOP incumbent governors’ positions are being contested this cycle}.

If this trend continues to election day, it would be, of course, a very good day for the conservative party, but being an off-presidential-year cycle, not in itself a true wave or landslide election. The Democrats, if this happens, would still be in a position for a recovery in 2016 with their new presidential candidate.

A wave election in 2014, it seems to me, would require the GOP to pick up at least 9 senate seats, 8-10 or more house seats, and draw even or better in the gubernatorial races. That’s an admittedly imperfect definition, and some might quibble with my exact numbers, but a political “tsunami” this year would have no ambiguity. The voters would be sending “their government” a message.

First of all, with about two months to go, it is not surprising that poll numbers do not show a wave. Republican challengers are leading or tied in many races that would be pick-ups, but the margins are not large. This is because many likely voters, especially independents, as I see it, are not yet willing to commit their vote to a pollster. However, since most of the contested races are seats now held by Democrats, it is problematic for the liberal party, led by President Obama. The fact remains that, as an election draws near, undecideds are less and less likely to go with incumbents. This traditional rule is compounded by current conditions of economic uncertainty, unemployment and an uneven modest recovery. World events are particularly tense this summer, and the hesitating White House response to international threats does not help the party in power with voters.

In addition, in some of the key 2014 races, there are third party candidates who, in current polls, might alter outcomes in November. Historically, however, most of the actual votes cast for these third party candidates is considerably less than their pre-election poll numbers because many voters don’t want to “waste” their vote. Many of those who do vote for third party candidates would not have voted for a major party candidate, but would have stayed home if they only had two choices.

Polls are showing perhaps a larger number of undecided voters at this point, but I would argue those numbers reflect problems with polling more than the state of voters’ minds. Furthermore, if there is to be a wave election, it will be fueled on election day with a wave of truly undecided voters in the last two weeks before election day.

I am not yet predicting a wave election, however. Last-minute world events can always have an impact. The Democrats, furthermore, have had the superior ground game (get-out-the-vote) effort for a decade, and their advantage in this was powerfully demonstrated in 2012. If the liberal party can get their voters effectively to the polls, the results in 2014 would likely not be a wave election, no matter the final tally.

Republicans have had fair warning about their opponents’ ground game. Supposedly, there are now many key GOP campaigns employing the new technologies to identify their voters, and the means to assure they vote in 2014, but unlike the Democratic efforts, they will have to prove themselves effective in 2014.

Democrats will not have the advantage of “problem” GOP candidates this cycle, as occurred in 2008, 2010 and 2012. In fact, most of the candidates making blunders this year are Democrats (Bruce Braley in Iowa, now-withdrawn John Walsh in Montana, et al). Nontheless, Democrats have out-raised the Republicans in campaign funding, and are laboring mightily to make as many races be determined by local issues and candidate personalities as possible.

The key, when all is said and done, to a wave election will be in fact whether or not voters make their choices as a direct reflection of their attitude and mood about the national situation.

Watch for the signs of a wave to begin to appear in polls about two weeks before election day. Until then, the numbers will likely gyrate within a narrow range, and several individual key race outcomes will be uncertain.

Halloween falls on the Friday before election day this year. We will by then have a better idea whether 2014 is going to be trick or treat.

—————————————————————————————————
Copyright (c) 2014 by Barry Casselman. All rights reserved.

by @ 2:30 pm. Filed under 2014, Predictions, Senate Races

Poll Watch: PPP (D) Kansas 2014 Senatorial Survey

PPP (D) Kansas 2014 Senate Poll

The candidates for Senate this fall are Republican Pat Roberts, Democrat Chad Taylor, independent Greg Orman, and Libertarian Randall Batson. If the election was today, who would you vote for? 

  • Pat Roberts (R) 32%
  • Chad Taylor (D) 25%
  • Greg Orman (I) 23%
  • Randall Batson (L) 3%
  • Undecided 17%

If the candidates for Senate this fall were just Republican Pat Roberts and Democrat Chad Taylor, who would you vote for?

  • Pat Roberts (R) 43%
  • Chad Taylor (D) 39%
  • Not sure 17%

If the candidates for Senate this fall were just Republican Pat Roberts and independent Greg Orman, who would you vote for?

  • Greg Orman (I) 43% 
  • Pat Roberts (R) 33%
  • Not sure 24%

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

  • Greg Orman 24% / 12% {+12%}
  • Chad Taylor 15% / 14% {+1%}

Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Pat Roberts’ job performance? 

  • Approve 27%
  • Disapprove 44%

Survey of 903 likely voters was conducted August 14-17, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 3.3 percentage points. Party ID: 50% Republican; 30% Democrat; 20% Independent/Other. Ideology: 31% Moderate; 24% Very conservative; 22% Somewhat conservative; 16% Somewhat liberal; 7% Very liberal.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 2:15 pm. Filed under 2014, Poll Watch

Poll Watch: SurveyUSA Kansas 2014 Senatorial Survey

SurveyUSA Kansas 2014 Senate Poll

  • Pat Roberts (R) 37% [38%] (43%)
  • Chad Taylor (D) 32% [33%] (33%)
  • Greg Orman (I) 20%  [14%] (7%)
  • Randall Batson (L) 4% [4%] (5%)
  • Undecided 6% [10%] (12%)

Survey of 560 likely voters was conducted August 20-23, 2014 for KSN News Wichita. The margin of error is +/- 3.3 percentage points. Party ID: 46% [56%] (56%) Republican; 32% [26%] (28%) Democrat; 18% [18%] (16%) Independent. Ideology: 39% [38%] (40%) Moderate; 38% [42%] (39%) Conservative; 14% [17%] (14%) Liberal. Results from the poll conducted July 17-22, 2014 are in square brackets.Results from the poll conducted June 19-23, 2014 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 1:30 pm. Filed under 2014, Poll Watch

Poll Watch: Suffolk University/Boston Herald Massachusetts 2016 Democratic Primary Survey

Suffolk University/Boston Herald Massachusetts 2016 Democratic Primary Poll

  • Hillary Clinton 55.00%
  • Elizabeth Warren 17.25%
  • Joe Biden 7.75%
  • Andrew Cuomo 4.75%
  • Martin O’Malley 1.50%
  • Undecided 12.25%

Survey of 400 likely Democratic primary voters was conducted August 21-24, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 4.9 percentage points.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 12:45 pm. Filed under 2016, Hillary Clinton, Poll Watch

Poll Watch: Marquette University Law School Wisconsin 2014 Gubernatorial Survey

Marquette University Law School Wisconsin 2014 Gubernatorial Poll

  • Mary Burke (D) 48.6% [46.8%] (45.2%) {41%} [41%] (45%)
  • Scott Walker (R) 46.5% [46.3%] (47.9%) {48%} [47%] (47%)

Survey of 609 likely voters was conducted August 21-24, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 4.1 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted July 17-20, 2014 are in square brackets. 
Results from the poll conducted May 15-18, 2014 are in parentheses.Results from the poll conducted March 20-23, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted January 20-23, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted October 21-24, 2013 are in square brackets.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 12:00 pm. Filed under 2014, 2016, Poll Watch, Scott Walker

Poll Watch: USA Today/Suffolk University Iowa 2016 Democratic Caucus Survey

USA Today/Suffolk University Iowa 2016 Democratic Caucus Poll 

  • Hillary Clinton 66.49% (62.96%)
  • Elizabeth Warren 9.95% (11.85%)
  • Joe Biden 7.85% (9.63%)
  • Andrew Cuomo 4.19% (0.74%)
  • Martin O’Malley 2.09%
  • Undecided 7.85% (11.85%)

Survey of 191 Democratic caucus-goers was conducted August 23-26, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 7.09 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted April 3-8, 2014 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 11:15 am. Filed under 2016, Hillary Clinton, Iowa Caucuses, Poll Watch

Poll Watch: Rasmussen President Obama Job Approval Survey

Rasmussen President Obama Job Approval Poll 

How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as president?

  • Strongly approve 21%
  • Somewhat approve 25%
  • Somewhat disapprove 10%
  • Strongly disapprove 42%

President Obama Job Approval

  • Approve 46%
  • Disapprove 52%

Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 500 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. To reach those who have abandoned traditional landline telephones, Rasmussen Reports uses an online survey tool to interview randomly selected participants from a demographically diverse panel. The margin of sampling error for the full sample of 1,500 Likely Voters is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

by @ 11:09 am. Filed under 2014, Barack Obama, Poll Watch

August 27, 2014

Poll Watch: USA Today/Suffolk University Iowa 2016 Republican Caucus Survey

USA Today/Suffolk University Iowa 2016 GOP Caucus Poll 

  • Mike Huckabee 13.11% (11.02%)
  • Chris Christie 10.68% (7.09%)
  • Rick Perry 8.74% (3.15%)
  • Jeb Bush 7.28 (10.24%)
  • Rand Paul 6.80% (10.24%)
  • Paul Ryan 6.31% (6.30%)
  • Rick Santorum 5.83% (5.51%)
  • Marco Rubio 5.34% (5.51%)
  • Ted Cruz 4.85% (9.45%)
  • Scott Walker 4.37% (5.51%)
  • Bobby Jindal 2.91% (3.15%)
  • Jon Huntsman 0.97%
  • John Kasich 0.97%
  • Other 4.37%
  • Undecided 16.99% (3.15%)

Survey of 206 GOP caucus-goers was conducted August 23-36, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 6.83 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted April 3-8, 2014 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 3:46 pm. Filed under 2016, Iowa Caucuses, Mike Huckabee, Poll Watch

Poll Watch: Rasmussen Arkansas 2014 Senatorial Survey

Rasmussen Arkansas 2014 Senate Poll

  • Mark Pryor (D) 44% [43%] (40%)
  • Tom Cotton (R) 43% [47%] (45%)
  • Some other candidate 6% [4%] (5%)
  • Undecided 6% [6%] (10%)

Survey of 750 likely voters was conducted August 25-26, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted May 27-28, 2014 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 4-5, 2014 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 2:43 pm. Filed under 2014, Poll Watch

Poll Watch: PPP (D) Iowa 2014 Senatorial Survey

PPP (D) Iowa 2014 Senate Poll 

The candidates for U.S. Senate are Democrat Bruce Braley, Republican Joni Ernst, Libertarian Douglas Butzier, Bob Quast, Ruth Smith, and independent Rick Stewart. If the election was today, who would you vote for?

  • Bruce Braley (D) 41%
  • Joni Ernst (R) 40%
  • Rick Stewart (I) 2%
  • Douglas Butzier (L) 2%
  • Ruth Smith 1%
  • Bob Quast 0%
  • Undecided 14%

Horse race, with Butzier, Quast, Smith, and Stewart supporters asked if they’d vote Braley or Ernst 

  • Bruce Braley (D) 42% [45%] (41%)
  • Joni Ernst (R) 42% [39%] (35%)
  • Not sure 16% [16%] (23%)

Among Men

  • Joni Ernst (R) 50% [48%] (43%)
  • Bruce Braley (D) 40% [39%] (41%)
  • Not sure 9% [12%] (16%)
Among Women
  • Bruce Braley (D) 44% [50%] (42%)
  • Joni Ernst (R) 35% [31%] (28%)
  • Not sure 21% [20%] (30%)

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net} 

  • Bruce Braley 37% [29%] (31%) / 41% [29%] (25%) {-4%}
  • Joni Ernst 36% [27%] (9%) / 46% [32%] (12%) {-10%}

Survey of 915 likely voters was conducted August 22-24, 2014.  The margin of error is +/- 3.2 percentage points. Party ID: 35% [38%] (37%) Democrat; 34% [34%] (31%) Republican; 31% [28%] (32%) Independent/Other.  Ideology: 29% [27%] (30%) Moderate; 23% [22%] (24%) Somewhat conservative; 20% [18%] (22%) Somewhat liberal; 17% [19%] (14%) Very conservative; 11% [14%] (10%) Very liberal.  Results from the poll conducted May 15-19, 2014 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 20-23, 2014 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 10:00 am. Filed under 2014, Poll Watch

Poll Watch: Rasmussen President Obama Job Approval Survey

Rasmussen President Obama Job Approval Poll 

How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as president?

  • Strongly approve 21%
  • Somewhat approve 25%
  • Somewhat disapprove 13%
  • Strongly disapprove 40%

President Obama Job Approval

  • Approve 46%
  • Disapprove 53%

Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 500 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. To reach those who have abandoned traditional landline telephones, Rasmussen Reports uses an online survey tool to interview randomly selected participants from a demographically diverse panel. The margin of sampling error for the full sample of 1,500 Likely Voters is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

by @ 9:58 am. Filed under 2014, Barack Obama, Poll Watch

August 26, 2014

Poll Watch: SurveyUSA/KSTP-TV Minnesota 2014 Senatorial Survey

  • Al Franken (D) 51% [48%] (50%)
  • Mike McFadden (R) 42% [42%] (40%)
  • Steve Carlson (IP) 2%
  • Other 2% [1%]
  • Undecided 3% [5%] (11%)

Survey of 600 likely voters was conducted August 19-21, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 4.1 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted June 5-9, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted February 25-27, 2014 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 3:34 pm. Filed under 2014, Poll Watch

Poll Watch: Suffolk University/Boston Herald Massachusetts 2016 Republican Primary Survey

Suffolk/Boston Herald Massachusetts 2016 GOP Primary Poll

  • Chris Christie 11.00%
  • Paul Ryan 11.00%
  • Jeb Bush 10.75%
  • Rand Paul 10.50%
  • Mike Huckabee 7.00%
  • Scott Walker 6.75%
  • Marco Rubio 5.75%
  • Rick Perry 4.75%
  • Ted Cruz 4.25%
  • Bobby Jindal 3.50%
  • Rick Santorum 2.75%
  • Jon Huntsman 1.75%
  • John Kasich 1.00%
  • Undecided 18.25%

Survey of 400 likely Republican primary voters was conducted August 21-24, 2014.  The margin of error is +/- 4.9 percentage points.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 12:17 pm. Filed under 2016, Chris Christie, Paul Ryan, Poll Watch

Poll Watch: Rasmussen Alaska 2014 Senatorial Survey

  • Dan Sullivan (R) 47% (44%)
  • Mark Begich (D) 45% (44%)
  • Some other candidate 3%
  • Undecided 4%

Survey of 750 likely voters was conducted August 20-21, 2014.  The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted March 19-20, 2014 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 9:47 am. Filed under 2014, Poll Watch

Poll Watch: Rasmussen President Obama Job Approval Survey

Rasmussen President Obama Job Approval Poll 

How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as president?

  • Strongly approve 22%
  • Somewhat approve 23%
  • Somewhat disapprove 13%
  • Strongly disapprove 40%

President Obama Job Approval

  • Approve 45%
  • Disapprove 53%

Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 500 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. To reach those who have abandoned traditional landline telephones, Rasmussen Reports uses an online survey tool to interview randomly selected participants from a demographically diverse panel. The margin of sampling error for the full sample of 1,500 Likely Voters is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

by @ 9:45 am. Filed under 2014, Barack Obama, Poll Watch

August 25, 2014

Poll Watch: Rasmussen Wyoming 2014 Senatorial Survey

Rasmussen Wyoming 2014 Senatorial Survey

  • Mike Enzi (R) 63%
  • Charlie Hardy (D) 27%

Survey of 700 Likely Voters in Wyoming was conducted on August 20-21, 2014 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

by @ 10:14 am. Filed under 2014, Poll Watch

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