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May 27, 2016

Open Thread: Friday, May 27

  7:00 am

This is the open thread for Friday, May 27.

This is a good place to post anything that would be off topic in other threads (articles of interest, polls, etc).

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Poll Watch (Civitas): Trump, Clinton Within MOE in NC, Johnson Pulls 8%

  1:04 pm

Republican polling firm Civitas released the results of a poll of swing state North Carolina that shows Donald Trump up 2.3% on Hillary Clinton but that figure is within the margin of error. Presumptive Libertarian Party nominee is pulling 8.2 %, a strong showing in a state that usually does not vote for third party candidates is big numbers.

North Carolina – General Election:

  • Donald Trump: 40.5%
  • Hillary Clinton: 38.2%
  • Gary Johnson: 8.2%
  • Undecided: 9.5%

Survey of 600 likely North Carolina voters was conducted May 21-23, 2016. The margin of error is +/- 4.0 percentage points

H/T to The Argo Journal

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May 26, 2016

Senator Marco Rubio Being Pressured to Run for Re-Election

  3:37 pm

CNN’s Manu Raju is reporting that Florida Senator Marco Rubio is being pressured to change his mind and run for re-election to the United States Senate.

Top Republicans are becoming nervous that they may lose Marco Rubio’s Senate seat and their tenuous majority in the chamber — and now many want the Florida senator to reconsider his decision to leave office.

Behind the scenes, a number of senators, donors and leading party officials have privately prodded Rubio to make a late entry into the race to prevent his seat from flipping, several sources told CNN.

The freshman Senator and 2016 Republican presidential candidate has said repeatedly that he does not want to seek reelection and instead return to the private sector and spend time with his young family. Per Florida’s election laws, Mr. Rubio has nearly a month to change his mind, however, as the deadline to declare a candidacy in the Sunshine State is June 24. A couple weeks ago, a Morning Consult poll was released that showed that if Mr. Rubio does opt to change his mind and run for reelection, he would be favored to win; the poll had Mr. Rubio leading presumptive Democratic nominee Patrick Murphy by eight points, 49% to 41%.

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Poll Watch (Rasmussen): Clinton, Trump Neck-and-Neck

  3:05 pm

Rasmussen Reports dropped their latest presidential tracking poll today and it shows the race for the White House is essentially tied. Republican Donald Trump has seen an erosion of support from last week’s Rasmussen tracking poll, which he led by 5 points, 42% to 37%, over Mrs. Clinton. Also of note, one in five voters say they either prefer a third party candidate or are undecided.

Additional polls out of California and New Jersey show Mrs. Clinton with double-digit leads in both states.

General Election:

  • Hillary Clinton: 40% [37%]
  • Donald Trump: 39% [42%]
  • Some Other Candidate: 14% [13%]
  • Undecided: 7% [7%]

*Numbers in brackets are from the Rasmussen poll conducted May 17-18. 

Survey of 1,000 likely voters was conducted May 23-24, 2016. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points.

H/T to the Argo Journal.

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Poll Watch (Morning Consult): Gary Johnson Drawing Double-Digits

  8:00 am

A recent poll from widely-respected Morning Consult has some surprising news regarding the presidential race in its large sample survey released on May 24. The results, when taken with the understanding that both major party presumptive nominees are viewed unfavorably by a clear majority of voters, are understandable. When asked to make the binary Clinton or Trump choice, the results were understandable – within the margin of error – but when presumptive Libertarian Party nominee Gary Johnson was offered as a choice, the former Republican governor of New Mexico once again reached double digits.

General Election – binary choice:

  • Hillary Clinton: 42%
  • Donald Trump: 40%
  • Undecided: 18%
  • Bernie Sanders: 49%
  • Donald Trump: 38%
  • Undecided: 13%

General Election – with Gov. Johnson:

  • Hillary Clinton: 38%
  • Donald Trump: 35%
  • Gary Johnson: 10%
  • Undecided: 17%

Favorable / Unfavorable:

  • Donald Trump: 40% / 56%  (-16%)
  • Hillary Clinton: 40% / 57% (-17%)
  • Bernie Sanders: 51% / 41% (+10%)

The Morning Consult survey polled 2,001 registered voters from May 19-23 for a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points.

 

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Open Thread: Thursday, May 26

  7:00 am

This is the open thread for Thursday, May 26.

This is a good place to post anything that would be off topic in other threads (articles of interest, polls, etc).

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May 25, 2016

Poll Watch (PPP): Trump Ahead in North Carolina

  1:25 pm

Another day and another swing state poll, today’s from PPP, showing essentially the same thing – both Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton are widely disliked but Mr. Trump holds a 2% lead (within the margin of error) when respondents were given the choice of two third-party candidates. Trump’s lead increases to 4% when the choices are whittled down to just he and Mrs. Clinton.

General Election – binary choice:

  • Donald Trump: 47%
  • Hillary Clinton: 43%
  • Not Sure: 9%

General Election – with Third Party candidates:

  • Donald Trump (R): 43%
  • Hillary Clinton (D): 41%
  • Gary Johnson (L): 3%
  • Jill Stein (G): 2%
  • Not Sure: 11%

Favorable / Unfavorable:

  • Donald Trump: 36% / 55% (-19%)
  • Hillary Clinton: 38% / 54% (-16%)

Survey of 928 registered North Carolina voters was conducted May 20-22, 2016. The margin of error is +/- 3.2 percentage points.

 

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Open Thread: Wednesday, May 25

  12:37 pm

This is the open thread for Wednesday, May 25.

This is a good place to post anything that would be off topic in other threads (articles of interest, polls, etc).

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May 24, 2016

Poll Watch (Roanoke College): Trump, Clinton Tied in Virginia

  8:00 am

Roanoke College is out with a poll of swing-state Virginia that shows the two presumptive major party nominees tied at 38% apiece. Like all other polls this cycle, voters view both Mrs. Clinton and Mr. Trump very negatively. If you are a Trump supporter looking for good news, the Democrat donor turned Republican presidential nominee is up 3% since Roanoke’s previous Virginia poll in January while Clinton had dropped 14% from 52% to 38%.

General Election – Virginia:

  • Hillary Clinton: 38%
  • Donald Trump: 38%

Favorable / Unfavorable:

  • Hillary Clinton: 30% / 50% (-20%)
  • Donald Trump: 23% / 56% (-33%)

How would you feel if _____ was elected president?:

Hillary Clinton:

  • Proud: 17%
  • Satisfied: 29%
  • Unhappy: 19%
  • Disgusted: 30%

Donald Trump:

  • Proud: 8%
  • Satisfied: 28%
  • Unhappy: 16%
  • Disgusted: 42%

 

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Open Thread: Tuesday, May 24

  7:00 am

This is the open thread for Tuesday, May 24.

This is a good place to post anything that would be off topic in other threads (articles of interest, polls, etc).

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