October 20, 2014

Poll Watch: Suffolk University/Boston Herald New Hampshire 2014 Senatorial Survey

Suffolk University/Boston Herald New Hampshire 2014 Senate Poll

  • Jeanne Shaheen (D) 48.60% [49.38%] (52.00%)
  • Scott Brown (R) 45.60% [39.38%] (39.13%)
  • Undecided 5.60% [8.75%] (8.87%)

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

  • Jeanne Shaheen 49.00% [51.50%] (52.75%) / 42.20% [36.38%] (37.13%) {+6.80%}
  • Scott Brown 39.20% [34.63%] (32.75%) / 47.80% [45.75%] (42.38%) {-8.60%}

Do you approve or disapprove of the job that Jeanne Shaheen is doing as U.S. Senator?

  • Approve 46.00%
  • Disapprove 46.00%

Survey of 500 likely voters was conducted October 16-19, 2014.  Party registration: 30.60% [29.88%] (30%) Republican; 27.20% [28.25%] (27%) Democrat; 41.20% [39.63%] (43%) Independent/Other. Results from the poll conducted June 14-18, 2014 are in square brackets.Results from the poll conducted February 27 – March 5, 2014 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 7:25 pm. Filed under 2014, Poll Watch

Poll Watch: Vox Populi (R) Louisiana 2014 Senatorial Survey

Vox Populi (R) Louisiana 2014 Senate Poll

If the election for the United States Senate were held today, for whom would you vote?

  • Mary Landrieu (D) 38%
  • Bill Cassidy (R) 38%
  • Rob Maness (R) 10%
  • Brannon McMorris (L) 2%
  • Someone different 4%
  • Don’t know 8% 

If no candidate in the senate race reaches 50% of the vote there will be a runoff between the top two finishers in December. If those two candidates were Democrat Mary Landrieu and Republican Bill Cassidy, for whom would you vote?

  • Bill Cassidy (R) 48%
  • Mary Landrieu (D) 44%
  • Don’t know 8% 

Survey of 546 likely voters was conducted October 13-14, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 4.2 percentage points.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 8:00 am. Filed under 2014, Poll Watch

Poll Watch: Rutgers-Eagleton New Jersey Survey on Governor Chris Christie

Rutgers-Eagleton New Jersey Poll on Gov. Chris Christie

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Chris Christie is handling his job as governor? 

  • Approve 49% [52%] (55%) {55%} [53%] (68%) {67%} [66%] (70%) {68%} [73%] (67%)
  • Disapprove 46% [41%] (41%) {39%} [41%] (26%) {29%} [31%] (25%) {26%} [23%] (26%)

Among Democrats

  • Approve 27% [31%] (29%) {34%} [29%] (51%) {46%} [50%] (56%) {51%} [62%] (49%)
  • Disapprove 67% [60%] (67%) {60%} [64%] (41%) {47%} [45%] (39%) {42%} [31%] (39%)

Among Republicans

  • Approve 80% [78%] (86%) {83%} [83%] (93%) {91%} [89%] (87%) {93%} [90%] (88%)
  • Disapprove 18% [17%] (10%) {12%} [13%] (6%) {8%} [10%] (9%) {5%} [10%] (8%)

Among Independents

  • Approve 52% [57%] (62%) {58%} [60%] (71%) {74%} [70%] (77%) {75%} [75%] (76%)
  • Disapprove 43% [37%] (34%) {36%} [33%] (24%) {21%} [26%] (18%) {20%} [21%] (20%)

Among Moderates

  • Approve 51% [53%] (57%) [53%] (71%) {65%} [69%] (73%) {70%} [75%] (68%)
  • Disapprove 45% [40%] (39%) [40%] (23%) {30%} [27%] (22%) {25%} [20%] (25%)

Survey of 734 registered voters was conducted September 29 – October 5, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 3.6 percentage points.  Party ID: 34% [33%] (36%) {36%} [39%] (36%) {39%} [40%] (41%) {41%} [39%] (43%) {38%} [35%] (37%) {39%} [37%] {35%} [31%] (36%) {35%} Democrat; 20% [20%] (21%) {23%} [19%] (21%) {21%} [21%] (22%) {19%} [22%] (22%) {24%} [24%] (22%) {21%} [20%] {18%} [19%] (22%) {23%} Republican; 46% [47%] (43%) {41%} [42%] (42%) {40%} [38%] (37%) {40%} [40%] (35%) {38%} [41%] (41%) {40%} [43%] {47%} [50%] (42%) {42%} Independent/Other. Results from the poll conducted July 28 – August 5, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted March 31 – April 6, 2014 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted February 22-28, 2014 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 14-19, 2014 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted October 28 – November 2, 2013 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted October 7-13, 2013 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted September 3-9, 2013 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted June 3-9, 2013 are in parentheses.Results from the poll conducted April 3-7, 2013 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted January 30 – February 3, 2013 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted November 14-17, 2012 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted September 27-30, 2012 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted August 23-25, 2012 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted May 31 – June 4, 2012 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted March 21-27, 2012 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted February 9-11, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 9-12, 2011 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted October 6-9, 2011 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted August 9-15, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 28 – April 4, 2011 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted February 24-26, 2011 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted October, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September, 2010 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted August, 2010 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted February, 2010 are in square brackets.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 7:00 am. Filed under 2016, Chris Christie, Poll Watch

Poll Watch: ABC News/Washington Post 2016 Democratic Nomination Survey

ABC News/Washington Post 2016 Democratic Nomination Poll

  • Hillary Clinton 64% [69%] (73%)
  • Joe Biden 13% [12%] (11%)
  • Elizabeth Warren 11% [7%] (9%)
  • Jim Webb 2% [1%]
  • Martin O’Malley 1% [2%]
  • Bernie Sanders 1% [2%]
  • None of these (vol.) 3% [2%] (3%)
  • No opinion 5% [2%] (4%)

Survey of registered Democrats and Democratic-leaning voters was conducted October 9-12, 2014. Results from the poll conducted May 29 – June 1, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted January 20-23, 2014 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 7:00 am. Filed under 2016, Hillary Clinton, Poll Watch

Poll Watch: ABC News/Washington Post 2016 Republican Nomination Survey

ABC News/Washington Post 2016 GOP Nomination Poll

  • Jeb Bush 13% [12%] (18%)
  • Rand Paul 12% [15%] (11%)
  • Mike Huckabee 12% [14%]
  • Paul Ryan 9% [12%] (18%)
  • Chris Christie 8% [9%] (14%)
  • Marco Rubio 8% [6%] (10%)
  • Ben Carson 7%
  • Rick Perry 6% [5%]
  • Ted Cruz 4% [7%] (12%)
  • Rick Santorum 4%
  • Scott Walker 2% [5%]
  • Bobby Jindal 2% [2%]
  • John Kasich 2% [1%]
  • Other (vol.) 1% [2%] (2%)
  • None of these (vol.) 3% [4%] (4%)
  • Would not vote (vol.) 0% [0%] (1%)
  • No opinion 9% [5%] (9%)

Survey of registered Republican and GOP-leaning voters was conducted October 9-12, 2014. Results from the poll conducted April 24-27, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted January 20-23, 2014 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 4:00 am. Filed under 2016, Jeb Bush, Poll Watch

Poll Watch: Rasmussen Connecticut 2014 Gubernatorial Survey

  • Tom Foley (R) 50% (45%)
  • Dan Malloy (D) 43% (38%)
  • Some other candidate 2% (7%)
  • Undecided 4% (10%)

Survey of 980 likely voters was conducted October 14-16, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted August 18-19, 2014 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 4:00 am. Filed under 2014, Poll Watch

October 18, 2014

Poll Watch: Rasmussen Generic Congressional Ballot Survey

Rasmussen Generic Congressional Ballot Survey

  • Democrats 40% 41% 40% 40% 41% 39% 40% 39% 39%  39% 38% 41% 39% 39% 41% 40% 40% 39% 41% 41% 42% 41% 40% 41% 38% 40% 40% 40% 39% 41% 38% 39% 39% 41% 41% 40% 39% 42% 41% 41% 40% 40% (39%) 40% (38%) (38%) (41%) (39%) (41%) (43%) (43%) (43%) (45%) (42%) (40%)
  • Republicans 40% 39% 39% 40%  39% 41% 41% 40% 39% 40% 42% 39% 39% 38% 38% 38% 38% 37% 37% 38% 38% 37% 38% 37% 40% 41% 38% 39% 38% 37% 39% 39% 36% 37% 37% 38% 40% 37% 35% 37%  38% 40% (42%) 40% (43%) (43%) (40%) (40%) (39%) (37%) (37%) (36%) (38%) (38%) (37%)

The national telephone survey of 3,500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports from October 6-12, 2014. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

by @ 4:53 pm. Filed under 2014, Poll Watch

Poll Watch: Rasmussen Kentucky 2014 Senatorial Survey

Rasmussen Kentucky 2014 Senate Poll

  • Mitch McConnell (R) 52% {46%} [48%] (42%)
  • Alison Lundergan Grimes (D) 44% {41%} [41%] (42%)
  • Some other candidate 2% {7%} [5%] (6%)
  • Undecided 3% {6%} [7%] (10%)

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

  • Mitch McConnell 49% {47%} / 47% {51%} {+2%}
  • Alison Lundergan Grimes 46% {42%} / 50% {51%} {-4%}

Survey of 1,000 likely voters was conducted October 15-16, 2014.  The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted September 1-2, 2014 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 28-29, 2014 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 29-30, 2014 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 4:00 am. Filed under 2014, Poll Watch

October 17, 2014

Fair Warning

The past week was generally good to the Republicans, but a true whole picture of the final outcomes of 2014 is not yet in sight.

No political party easily gives up the powers that they have, and the Democrats are  particularly “ferocious” in this cycle to keep control of the U.S. senate, and to make gains in their number of governors of the states.

I have been stressing, despite the voter momentum to the conservative party this cycle, that the liberal party has serious cards to play, and that they are, and will continue, playing them right up to election day. These include much more campaign funds, reliable constituencies, and a proven and effective ability to get out their vote. Republicans this cycle have outfunded the Democrats only in the gubernatorial races (thanks to having more incumbents and the efforts of Republican Governors Association chairman Chris Christie).

The structure of the congressional map, as well as the GOP trend this year, ensures mostly good outcomes for the conservative party in U.S. house races, despite the Democrats’ financial advantage in these races. The Democrats have now pulled their ads in many of the races where they hoped to defeat incumbent Republicans, and reallocated those funds to saving vulnerable Democrats.

It is in the U.S. senate races where Republicans must most be wary, and not overconfident, with just under three weeks to go. The Democrats know where they still have opportunities, both to save their own vulnerable incumbents and to possibly pick off an incumbent GOP senator or two. They have the money and they have the technology to make a successful last stand.

As in some house races, Democrats have redirected their efforts in some senate races. They appear to be conceding Colorado and Kentucky, but there are several senate races where heavy advertising and aggressive get-out-the-vote efforts might yet save the political day for them.

Just as, following the 2004 election when Republicans had the better ground game, the 2014 mid-term elections are a challenge to the opposition party to adapt to a new election landscape featuring early voting, looser voting rules, high-tech voter I.D methods, and new political media/communication venues.

Barack Obama defeated Hillary Clinton for the Democratic party nomination in 2008 in part by embracing the then new election landscape, and he defeated Mitt Romney in 2012 in part because the Republicans had not learned the technical lessons of 2006 and 2008.

The conservative party has had fair warning.

_______________________________________________________________________________________________
Copyright (c) 2014 by Barry Casselman. All rights reserved.

by @ 5:12 pm. Filed under 2014, Campaign Strategy, Chris Christie, Democrats, House Races, Republican Party, Senate Races

Poll Watch: PPP (D) Iowa 2014 Senatorial Survey

  • Bruce Braley (D) 48% (43%) {42%} [45%] (41%)
  • Joni Ernst (R) 47% (45%) {42%} [39%] (35%)
  • Undecided 5% (12%) {16%} [16%] (23%)

Among Men

  • Joni Ernst (R) 49% (48%) {50%} [48%] (43%)
  • Bruce Braley (D) 48% (43%) {40%} [39%] (41%)
  • Undecided 3% (9%) {9%} [12%] (16%)
Among Women
  • Bruce Braley (D) 48% (44%) {44%} [50%] (42%)
  • Joni Ernst (R) 46% (42%) {35%} [31%] (28%)
  • Undecided 7% (15%) {21%} [20%] (30%)
Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

  • Joni Ernst 48% (42%) {36%} [27%] (9%) / 47% (46%) {46%} [32%] (12%) {+1%}
  • Bruce Braley 47% (37%) {37%} [29%] (31%) / 46% (44%) {41%} [29%] (25%) {+1%}

Survey of 714 likely voters was conducted October 15-16, 2014 on behalf of the League of Conservation Voters. Party ID: 37% (36%) {34%} [34%] (31%) Republican; 36% (35%) {35%} [38%] (37%) Democrat; 27% (29%) {31%} [28%] (32%) Independent/Other. Results from the poll conducted September 25-28, 2014 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted August 22-24, 2014 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 15-19, 2014 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 20-23, 2014are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 12:59 pm. Filed under 2014, Poll Watch

Poll Watch: KSTP/SurveyUSA Minnesota 8th Congressional District Survey

KSTP/SurveyUSA Minnesota 8th Congressional District Survey

  • Stewart Mills (R) 47%
  • Rick Nolan (D) 39%
  • Ray “Skip” Sandman (G) 4%
  • Undecided 11%

Asked of 555 likely voters. Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 4.2%.

Inside the numbers:

In our exclusive new KSTP/SurveyUSA poll, Republican challenger Stewart Mills leads incumbent Democrat Congressman Rick Nolan 47 percent to 39 percent. Another 4 percent support Green Party candidate Ray Sandman, and 11 percent are undecided.

“This is a shocking poll and may suggest we have Oberstar all over again,” said University of Minnesota political scientist Larry Jacobs, referring to longtime Democratic incumbent Jim Oberstar’s loss to Chip Cravaack in 2010. “Clearly Mills is benefiting from a fundamental change in the 8th District that is trending in the Republicans’ direction.”

Jacobs says the 8th District is changing as the population shifts from the more liberal Iron Range part of the district to more conservative northern suburbs of the Twin Cities. Recent re-districting also moved some voters from the conservative 6th District represented by Michele Bachmann to the 8th.

Our poll shows Nolan’s job performance approval rating is only 38 percent. Jacobs says that might be due to his support for “Obamacare” and for what some see as shifting stands on the Polymet mine project.  “Whether it’s Polymet or Obamacare these are issues that voters care about and they’re decisively breaking against Congressman Nolan,” Jacobs notes.

The poll shows 56 percent of 8th District “likely voters” disapprove of the “Affordable Care Act,” also known as “Obamacare.” Meanwhile, 55 percent say the Polymet mine should get government approval.  Voters who disapprove of “Obamacare” and favor the Polymet mine overwhelmingly support Mills.

Mills also has a decided advantage among independents, leading Nolan 58 percent to 29 percent. Mills retains 81 percent of GOP voters while Nolan has 78 percent support among Democrats.

by @ 10:02 am. Filed under 2014, Poll Watch

Poll Watch: GaPundit.com (R) Georgia 2014 Senatorial Survey

  • Michelle Nunn (D) 45.69% (44.74%)
  • David Perdue (R) 44.72% (43.09%)
  • Amanda Swafford (L) 6.03% (7.41%)
  • Undecided 3.56% (4.75%)

Survey of 1,543 likely voters was conducted October 13-14, 2014 for WRBL News 3, The Ledger-Enquirer newspaper and PMB radio broadcasting.  The margin of error is +/- 2.49 percentage points.  Party ID: 37.20% (34.16%) Republican; 34.87% (32.38%) Democrat; 27.93% (33.46%) Independent/Other. Gender: 52.56% (54.12%) Female; 47.44% (45.88%) Male.  Race: 62.48% (61.66%) White; 29.10% (29.72%) Black; 8.43% (8.62%) Other. Results from the poll conducted August 24-25, 2014 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 4:00 am. Filed under 2014, Poll Watch

October 16, 2014

Poll Watch: Rasmussen Arkansas 2014 Senatorial Survey

Rasmussen Arkansas 2014 Senate Poll

  • Tom Cotton (R) 47% (47%) {43%} [47%] (45%)
  • Mark Pryor (D) 44% (40%) {44%} [43%] (40%)

Survey of 940 likely voters was conducted October 13-15, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted September 24-25, 2014 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted August 25-26, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted May 27-28, 2014 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 4-5, 2014 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 3:19 pm. Filed under 2014, Poll Watch

Poll Watch: Quinnipiac Colorado 2014 Senatorial Survey

  • Cory Gardner (R) 47% [48%] (44%) {44%}
  • Mark Udall (D) 41% [40%] (42%) {45%} 
  • Steve Shogan (I) 8% [8%] 

Among Independents

  • Cory Gardner (R) 42% [42%] (40%) {43%}
  • Mark Udall (D) 39% [40%] (43%) {41%}
  • Steve Shogan (I) 13% [15%]  

Among Men

  • Cory Gardner (R) 53% [53%] (48%) {53%}
  • Mark Udall (D) 34% [34%] (36%) {38%}
  • Steve Shogan (I) 9% [9%]  

Among Women

  • Mark Udall (D) 49% [46%] (49%) {52%} 
  • Cory Gardner (R) 40% [43%] (40%) {35%}
  • Steve Shogan (I) 7% [7%]  

Recalculated Matchup, asking Shogan voters: Who is your second choice?

  • Cory Gardner (R) 49% [52%]
  • Mark Udall (D) 44% [42%]

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

  • Cory Gardner 47% [47%] (34%) {30%} / 41% [37%] (31%) {18%} {+6%}
  • Mark Udall 42% [42%] (40%) {43%} [42%] (44%) / 49% [50%] (43%) {38%} [35%] (38%) {-7%}

Among Independents

  • Cory Gardner 45% [43%] (28%) {29%} / 41% [40%] (33%) {17%} {+4%}
  • Mark Udall 44% [40%] (39%) {43%} [37%] (39%) / 48% [53%] (44%) {36%} [40%] (41%) {-4%}

Among Men

  • Cory Gardner 52% [55%] (39%) {40%} / 35% [32%] (26%) {16%} {+17%}
  • Mark Udall 35% [37%] (32%) {37%} [36%] (38%) / 56% [57%] (48%) {47%} [46%] (45%) {-21%}

Among Women

  • Mark Udall 49% [47%] (46%) {49%} [49%] (50%) / 42% [43%] (38%) {31%} [24%] (30%) {+7%}
  • Cory Gardner 42% [40%] (30%) {21%} / 47% [42%] (35%) {21%} {-5%}

Survey of 988 likely voters was conducted October 8-13, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 3.1 percentage points. Party ID: 33% [34%](29%) {26%} Republican; 29% [27%] (27%) {28%} Democrat; 32% [33%] (37%) {37%} Independent; 6% [6%] (6%) {10%} Other. Results from the poll conducted September 10-15, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted July 10-14, 2014 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted April 15-21, 2014 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 29 – February 2, 2014 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 15-18, 2013 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 10:18 am. Filed under 2014, Poll Watch

Poll Watch: Gravis Marketing/Human Events (R) Kentucky 2016 Presidential Survey

Gravis Marketing/Human Events (R) Kentucky 2016 Presidential Poll

  • Rand Paul (R) 48% (50%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 45% (44%)
  • Unsure 7% (6%)
  • Rand Paul (R) 49% (52%)
  • Elizabeth Warren (D) 36% (34%)
  • Unsure 15% (14%)

Survey of 1,020 likely voters was conducted October 11-12, 2014.  The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points. Party ID: 50% (50%) Democrat; 39% (39%) Republican; 11% (11%) Independent/Other. Results from the poll conducted July 17-20, 2014 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 8:00 am. Filed under 2016, Poll Watch

Poll Watch: Gravis Marketing (R) Maryland 2016 Presidential Survey

Gravis Marketing (R) Maryland 2016 Presidential Poll

  • Hillary Clinton (D) 51%
  • Paul Ryan (R) 36%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 52%
  • Jeb Bush (R) 35%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 51%
  • Rand Paul (R) 34%

Survey of 784 likely voters was conducted October 6-9, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 3.5 percentage points.  Party ID: 57% Democrat; 27% Republican; 16% Independent/Other.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 7:00 am. Filed under 2016, Hillary Clinton, Poll Watch

Poll Watch: Marquette University Law School Wisconsin 2014 Gubernatorial Survey

Marquette University Law School Wisconsin 2014 Gubernatorial Poll

  • Scott Walker (R) 47% [50.5%] (49.4%) {46.5%} [46.3%](47.9%) {48%} [47%] (47%) 
  • Mary Burke (D) 47% [44.7%] (45.8%) {48.6%} [46.8%] (45.2%) {41%} [41%] (45%) 

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net} 

  • Scott Walker 49.8% [52.1%] (52.4%) / 48.3% [45.8%] (45.8%) {+1.5%}
  • Mary Burke 43.7% [39.6%] (40.9%) / 44.3% [44.2%] (39.2%) {-0.6%}

Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Scott Walker is handling his job as Governor of Wisconsin?

  • Approve 49.8% [51.5%] (51.5%)
  • Disapprove 48.5% [47.0%] (47.6%)

Survey of 803 likely voters was conducted October 9-12, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 3.5 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted September 25-28, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted September 11-14, 2014 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted August 21-24, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted July 17-20, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted May 15-18, 2014 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted March 20-23, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted January 20-23, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted October 21-24, 2013 are in square brackets.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 4:00 am. Filed under 2014, Poll Watch

October 15, 2014

Poll Watch: Rasmussen Louisiana 2014 Senatorial Survey

Rasmussen Louisiana 2014 Senate Poll

If the 2014 election for U.S. Senate was held today, would you vote for Republican Bill Cassidy or Democrat Mary Landrieu or Republican Rob Maness?

  • Mary Landrieu (D) 41%
  • Bill Cassidy (R) 38%
  • Rob Maness (R) 14%
  • Some other candidate 2%
  • Undecided 5% 

If none of the candidates get more than 50% of the vote on November 4th, Louisiana will hold a runoff election on December 6, 2014 between the top two vote-getters. Suppose the candidates in that runoff are Republican Bill Cassidy and Democrat Mary Landrieu. For whom would you vote?

  • Bill Cassidy (R) 52% {44%} [43%] (44%)
  • Mary Landrieu (D) 43% {41%} [46%] (40%)

Survey of 965 likely voters was conducted October 13-14, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted September 2-3, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted July 8-9, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted January 28-29, 2014 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 6:32 pm. Filed under 2014, Poll Watch

Poll Watch: USA Today/Suffolk University Iowa 2014 Senatorial Survey

  • Joni Ernst (R) 47% (40.0%)
  • Bruce Braley (D) 43% (40.2%)
  • Undecided 7.4% (14.8%)

Survey of 500 likely voters was conducted October 11-14, 2014.  The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted August 23-26, 2014 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 2:45 pm. Filed under 2014, Poll Watch

Poll Watch: Tampa Bay Times/Bay News 9/News 13/UF Florida 2014 Gubernatorial Survey

  • Charlie Crist (D) 40% (35.74%)
  • Rick Scott (R) 40% (40.93%)
  • Adrian Wyllie (L) 6% (6.32%)

Survey of 781 likely voters was conducted October 7-12, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 3.2 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted August 27-31, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted January 27 – February 1, 2014 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 2:00 pm. Filed under 2014, Poll Watch

Poll Watch: Gravis Marketing (R) Florida 2014 Gubernatorial Survey

Gravis Marketing (R) Florida 2014 Gubernatorial Poll

  • Rick Scott (R) 44% (37%) {41%} [44%] (44%)
  • Charlie Crist (D) 42% (37%) {39%} [43%] (47%)
  • Unsure 14% (26%) {15%} [9%] (6%)

Survey of 1,023 likely voters was conducted October 11-12, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points. Party ID: 37% (37%) {36%} [36%] (36%) Democrat; 36% (36%) {37%} [37%] (37%) Republican; 27% (27%) {27%} [27%] (27%) Independent/Other. Results from the poll conducted August 14-24, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted June 20-23, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted April 23-25, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted January 30-31, 2014 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 1:30 pm. Filed under 2014, Poll Watch

Poll Watch: SurveyUSA Georgia 2014 Senatorial Survey

  • Michelle Nunn (D) 48% (45%) {44%} [41%] (38%)
  • David Perdue (R) 45% (46%) {47%} [50%] (43%)
  • Amanda Swafford (L) 3% (4%) {5%} [3%] (6%)
  • Undecided 4% (6%) {4%} [6%] (14%)

Among Men

  • David Perdue (R) 49% (50%) {55%} [56%] (50%)
  • Michelle Nunn (D) 46% (40%) {36%} [37%] (33%)
  • Amanda Swafford (L) 3% (4%) {6%} [2%] (6%)
  • Undecided 3% (6%) {3%} [4%] (11%)

Among Women

  • Michelle Nunn (D) 50% (49%) {52%} [46%] (44%)
  • David Perdue (R) 41% (41%) {40%} [44%] (35%)
  • Amanda Swafford (L) 3% (4%) {3%} [3%] (5%)
  • Undecided 5% (6%) {4%} [7%] (16%)

Survey of 563 likely voters was conducted October 10-13, 2014 for WXIA-TV Atlanta.  The margin of error is +/- 4.2 percentage points.  Party ID: 39% (38%) {37%} [40%] (38%) Republican; 38% (37%) {40%} [38%] (35%) Democrat; 22% (23%) {23%} [21%] (25%) Independent.  Ideology: 43% (41%) {36%} [38%] (38%) Moderate;39% (36%) {42%} [44%] (40%) Conservative; 14% (17%) {17%} [13%] (15%) Liberal.  Gender: 51% (50%) {51%} [48%] (47%) Female; 49% (50%) {49%} [52%] (53%) Male.  Race: 61% (63%) {62%} [63%] (65%) White; 27% (27%) {29%} [26%] (24%) Black; 7% (7%) {6%} [7%] (7%) Hispanic; 5% Asian/Other. Results from the poll conducted September 19-22, 2014 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted September 5-8, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted August 14-17, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted June 3-5, 2014 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 1:00 pm. Filed under 2014, Poll Watch

Poll Watch: Quinnipiac Iowa 2014 Senatorial Survey

  • Joni Ernst (R) 47% (50%) {40%} [29%] (38%)
  • Bruce Braley (D) 45% (44%) {44%} [42%] (44%)

Among Men

  • Joni Ernst (R) 56% (56%) {44%} [33%] (44%)
  • Bruce Braley (D) 38% (39%) {40%} [40%] (39%)
Among Women
  • Bruce Braley (D) 52% (50%) {47%} [44%] (49%)
  • Joni Ernst (R) 39% (44%) {36%} [27%] (31%)
Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

  • Joni Ernst 47% (45%) {34%} [13%] / 41% (39%) {28%} [6%] {+6%}
  • Bruce Braley 42% (38%) {35%} [35%] / 44% (41%) {26%} [18%] {-2%}

Survey of 967 likely voters was conducted October 8-13, 2014.  The margin of error is +/- 3.2 percentage points. Party ID: 30% (26%){29%} [28%] (27%) Democrat; 29% (28%) {27%} [25%] (28%) Republican; 34% (41%) {40%} [39%] (40%) Independent; 7% (5%) {5%} [7%] (4%) Other. Results from the poll conducted September 10-15, 2014 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted June 12-16, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted March 5-10, 2014 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted December 10-15, 2013 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 12:30 pm. Filed under 2014, Poll Watch

Poll Watch: Gravis Marketing/Human Events (R) Kentucky 2014 Senatorial Survey

Gravis Marketing/Human Events (R) Kentucky 2014 Senate Poll

  • Mitch McConnell (R) 50% [45%] (43%)
  • Alison Lundergan Grimes (D) 47% [45%] (36%)
  • Unsure 4% [10%] (12%)

Survey of 1,020 likely voters was conducted October 11-12, 2014.  The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points. Party ID: 50% [50%] (35%) Democrat; 39% [39%] (47%) Republican; 11% [11%] (18%) Independent/Other. Results from the poll conducted July 17-20, 2014are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted April 15-17, 2014 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 12:00 pm. Filed under 2014, Poll Watch

Poll Watch: Rasmussen Alaska 2014 Senatorial Survey

  • Dan Sullivan (R) 48% {48%} [47%] (44%)
  • Mark Begich (D) 45% {43%} [45%] (44%)
  • Some other candidate 3% {5%} [3%]
  • Undecided 3% {4%} [4%]

Survey of 700 likely voters was conducted October 8-12, 2014.  The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted September 23-24, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted August 20-21, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted March 19-20, 2014 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 11:15 am. Filed under 2014, Poll Watch

Poll Watch: SurveyUSA North Carolina 2014 Senatorial Survey

SurveyUSA North Carolina 2014 Senate Poll

If the election for United States Senator from North Carolina were today, who would you vote for?

  • Kay Hagan (D) 44% [46%]
  • Thom Tillis (R) 41% [43%]
  • Sean Haugh (L) 7% [5%]

What if the only candidates for US Senate were Republican Thom Tillis and Democrat Kay Hagan? Who would you vote for?

  • Thom Tillis (R) 46% [46%] (46%)
  • Kay Hagan (D) 45% [47%] (45%)

Survey of 554 likely voters was conducted October 10-12, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 4.2 percentage points. Party ID: 40% [41%] (42%) Democrat; 32% [32%] (33%) Republican; 28% [27%] (20%) Independent. Ideology: 45% [39%] (39%) Moderate; 34% [41%] (38%) Conservative; 19% [16%] (17%) Liberal. Results from the poll conducted September 9-10, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted March 27-31, 2014 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 10:45 am. Filed under 2014, Poll Watch

Poll Watch: CNN/ORC Colorado 2014 Senatorial Survey

CNN/ORC Colorado 2014 Senate Poll

  • Cory Gardner (R) 50%
  • Mark Udall (D) 46%

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

  • Cory Gardner 50% / 42% {+8%}
  • Mark Udall 45% / 51% {-6%}

Survey of 665 likely voters was conducted October 9-13, 2014.  The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 10:15 am. Filed under 2014, Poll Watch

Poll Watch: NH1/New England College New Hampshire 2014 Senatorial Survey

NH1/New England College New Hampshire 2014 Senate Poll

  • Scott Brown (R) 48.0% (45.9%) {46.6%} [42.8%] (40.2%)
  • Jeanne Shaheen (D) 46.9% (48.5%) {47.1%} [50.1%] (51.0%)
  • Another candidate 2.8% (3.2%) {3.3%} [4.0%] (4.5%)
  • Not sure 2.3% (2.3%) {2.9%} [3.2%] (4.2%)
Among Men

  • Scott Brown (R) 53.5% (50.4%) {52.7%} [45.4%] (45%)
  • Jeanne Shaheen (D) 41.3% (45.6%) {41.2%} [48.0%] (46%)
  • Another candidate 3.7% (2.5%) {3.6%} [4.0%] (5%)
  • Not sure 1.5% (1.5%) {2.5%} [2.6%] (4%)

Among Women

  • Jeanne Shaheen (D) 51.7% (51.1%) {53.0%} [52.2%] (56%)
  • Scott Brown (R) 43.1% (41.9%) {40.6%} [40.2%] (36%)
  • Another candidate 2.0% (3.9%) {3.1%} [3.9%] (4%)
  • Not sure 3.1% (3.1%) {3.3%} [3.8%] (5%)

Survey of 1,081 likely voters was conducted October 9, 2014. The margin of error is +/- 2.98 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted October 3, 2014 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted September 26, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted September 19-20, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted September 10-11, 2014 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 4:00 am. Filed under 2014, Poll Watch

October 14, 2014

It’s Complicated

Three weeks from tonight, if current trends hold, the Republican Party appears poised to achieve a solid, yet not overwhelming, victory in this year’s midterm elections. What we’re about to see is not quite a wave, but might best be described as a correction. The red states are red again, while the blue states remain blue, and the purple states seem willing to give Republicans a chance. The Republicans will almost certainly capture the Senate, and possibly do so quite solidly, and may actually attain their greatest majority in the House in several decades. All of this, however, does not suggest a Republican resurgence, but rather a diminishing Democratic government.

If the national zeitgeist were to be put into words right now, it would probably go something like this. Things just don’t feel quite right in America. We’re not exactly doing poorly. We’re not in the midst of a once-in-a-generation economic depression, or a clash of civilizations against a foreign empire. No, instead, the tableau is more complicated. The economy seems to be growing on paper, but it doesn’t quite feel that way on the ground. America’s economic engine is working, but not roaring. The unemployment rate has gone down, but people are still not getting promotions, not getting raises, and working two jobs to keep afloat. There’s no optimism out there. Instead, there’s acceptance of a new normal, and a creeping feeling that it doesn’t have to be this way.

Internationally, America seems to be faced with a number of difficult challenges. These challenges seem like they could have been prevented, but now that they exist, they don’t seem easily reparable. The spread of ISIS in the Middle East, and the presence of Ebola within American borders, shouldn’t have happened, but did, and solutions to these sorts of challenges seem, like the economic picture, complicated.

And then there’s the Democratic government. Democrats like “complicated.” Democrats are all about “complicated,” because Democrats believe that life is inherently complicated, and are always ready and willing to provide complicated solutions that will somehow make things even more complicated. Democrats will be the first to claim that the current complicated state of things is the best of all possible outcomes given what they had to work with.

But again, I think, the current zeitgeist goes something like this. We don’t quite buy that argument. Both parties made that argument before, in the 1970s, and then the 1980s came, and it turned out not to be true, and that America could make a comeback. So maybe, once again, it’s not so simple as to deem the future of America to be complicated. Maybe it’s just that our current leaders don’t have a better answer.

Enter Hillary Clinton. Once thought to be the inevitable 45th President, Mrs. Clinton has been coming down to earth in the polls as of late. Several polls have found her statistically tied with a number of Republicans in Iowa, an all important swing state won by Republicans in 2004, and Democrats in 2008 and 2012. Should other purple states follow suit, the Democrats may find that they have a fight on their hands, as memories of the Clinton years are eclipsed by the nagging feeling that the Democratic government simply doesn’t know what to do to make the country better.

Meanwhile, the Republicans still seem to lack a unified message, or optimistic tone, and continue to search for a national leader that can give the party meaning and purpose in the modern era, a full decade following its last presidential victory. Such a leader is not simply going to have to speak to the GOP base, but actually bring together the hodgepodge of voting blocs that will give Republicans victories in states like Florida, Virginia, Ohio, Colorado, Iowa, and New Hampshire, the purple states last won by George W. Bush.

Asking for a charismatic and optimistic leader who will end up on Mount Rushmore might be a bit much given the prospective field of Republican candidates. And that’s not necessarily a bad thing. After all, Democrats thought they had found the same in Mr. Obama, and look how that turned out. The nation may not be opposed to electing someone with less panache this time around, someone a bit more sober and perhaps just a tad boring, but at the same time, any such leader is still going to find that a personal connection with the American people remains a prerequisite for the presidency.

That personal connection was something that Mr. Romney, who is rumored to be considering yet another run, was never able to attain. Despite winning all three debates with Mr. Obama, Mr. Romney was unable to garner the support of a majority of Americans. The Republican Party, hungry for leadership, appears to be considering Mr. Romney again, but it is still far from clear whether Mr. Romney has the ability to be relatable, and to truly reach through the television screen and have a human moment with the American people.

Contra Mr. Romney is Mr. Huckabee, his former primary opponent, and continued outspoken former governor and cultural conservative. Mr. Huckabee is not lacking in human moments, but may not quite capture the zeitgeist of the era, which isn’t really about cultural conservatism versus cultural liberalism, and which is more about a Democratic government promising stagnation in perpetuity, and an American people that want an optimistic alternative filled with opportunity. Mr. Huckabee’s recent weigh in on same sex marriage, an issue on which the country seems to be moving away from his point of view, probably does represent the former’s governor’s genuine beliefs, but doesn’t necessarily bode well for a presidential campaign.

And then there’s Mr. Bush. The former Florida governor seems to be setting his sights on becoming the third member of the Bush family to find his way into the Oval Office, and, in ways that were unthinkable just six years ago, is beginning to seem to be a reasonable bet for the nomination were he to run. The zeitgeist, acting as confessor, seems to have given the most recent president named Bush absolution, and the nation’s problems no longer seem to be the result of an inept Republican president, but the inevitable woes of a nation that had once believed that peace and prosperity could last forever, with the focus now being on how to regain America’s lost prowess.

Mr. Bush’s argument for the nomination goes something like this: “Republicans, I am you. I am just as competent and intelligent as Mr. Romney, but I can avoid being branded just another rich guy. I proved that in Florida. I am no less pro-life than Mr. Huckabee, but no one can pigeonhole me as a socially conservative former preacher. I can appeal to Latino voters, and my wife and son prove that, and I can do so with the gravitas that my friend Mr. Rubio can’t yet muster. I can improve the country’s economic policies, without coming off as wonkish like Mr. Ryan, and I can do so without scaring seniors. Heck, I governed a state filled with seniors. I can win a majority, unlike Mr. Paul and Mr. Cruz, but I also have no animosity for the followers of Mr. Paul and Mr. Cruz, nor do they for me. I know how to win Florida. I’ll hold North Carolina. I can take back Virginia, because I know how to appeal to the concerns of the military without sounding brazen or hawkish. And we can take back Ohio, because despite my family name, I don’t come off as an elitist. And if we all work together, we can win back the swing voters of the Midwest and the Southwest who instinctively know that we as a nation can do better than this, but who need to hear it from someone who sounds eminently reasonable.”

And that may be what Americans will be looking for in their next president — someone relatable without being a rock star, and someone more competent than charismatic. If so, at least a couple of dark horse contenders who believe that they meet such criteria, such as Mr. Walker of Wisconsin, and Mr. Kasich of Ohio, may also begin to more seriously look at a country in need of a leader whose primary claim to fame will be uncomplicating that which is hopelessly complicated.

Then there’s Mr. Christie, a man who appears to be eyeing the White House, despite his own path to the Oval Office being quite complicated in and of itself. Mr. Christie most assuredly has the charisma and the ability to personally connect with the American people and to make a formidable candidate in a national election. But where does Mr. Christie find his base? Is Mr. Christie going to bring lots of new voters into Republican primaries, tilting the culturally conservative Iowa caucus or the gritty, provincial, slightly paleoconservative New Hampshire primaries towards his own personal version of conservatism and Republicanism? If so, Mr. Christie has no time to spare in starting to build such a coalition, and in coming up with the ideas on which this coalition is to be built, neither of which has happened yet. Despite a personality that is larger than life, Mr. Christie will need more than personality to establish a foothold in an early primary state, or put together a coalition that will take the nomination, let alone the presidency.

To be sure, Mrs. Clinton is still the frontrunner for 2016. But a bit less of a frontrunner than she was six months ago. And perhaps six months from now, she’ll be even less of a frontrunner, as Americans, tired of economic and global complications, decide to send the Democratic government a Dear John note with the message, “It’s complicated.”

Poll Watch: Fox 2 Detroit/Mitchell Research (R) Michigan 2014 Senatorial Survey

Fox 2 Detroit/Mitchell Research (R) Michigan 2014 Senate Poll

  • Gary Peters (D) 50% {48%} [49%] (43%) {46%} [45%] (43%) {45%} [38%] (33%)
  • Terri Lynn Land (R) 39% {43%} [36%] (41%) {44%} [44%] (38%) {42%} [44%] (32%)
  • Jim Fulner (L) 2% {1%} [3%] (3%)
  • Chris Wahmhoff (G) 1% {2%} [1%] (3%)
  • Richard Matkin (UST) 0.5 {0.5%} [1%] (2%)
  • Undecided 8% {6%} [9%] (9%) {10%} [11%] (19%) {14%} [18%] (35%)

Among Independents

  • Gary Peters (D) 49% {43%} [49%] (36%) {38%} [46%] (33%) {40%}
  • Terri Lynn Land (R) 26% {37%} [23%] (40%) {44%} [41%] (34%) {35%}

Among Men

  • Gary Peters (D) 49% {47%} [49%] (44%) {43%} [44%] (44%) {44%}
  • Terri Lynn Land (R) 42% {44%} [40%] (44%) {49%} [48%] (41%) {44%}

Among Women

  • Gary Peters (D) 50% {49%} [50%] (42%) {49%} [46%] (46%) {45%}
  • Terri Lynn Land (R) 36% {42%} [33%] (37%) {40%} [41%] (32%) {40%}

Survey of 1,340 likely voters was conducted October 12, 2014 for Fox 2 News (WJBK-TV) in Detroit. The margin of error is +/- 2.68 percentage points.  Party ID: 42% {42%} [42%] (43%) {43%} [43%] (38%) {39%} [38%] (41%) Democrat; 37% {38%} [37%] (38%) {39%} [38%] (33%) {35%} [36%] (37%) Republican. Results from the poll conducted October 9, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted September 29, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted September 14, 2014 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted August 27, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted August 5, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted July 7-17, 2014 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted June 6, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted April 9, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted March 19-21, 2013 are in parentheses.

-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal

by @ 12:56 pm. Filed under 2014, Poll Watch

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